| LjL | fructose, looks like it. it's basically... manually-tracked cases of interest? | 00:10 |
|---|---|---|
| LjL | pwr22, is this London? | 00:11 |
| fructose | LjL: Curated updates from the International Society for Infectious Diseases | 00:12 |
| LjL | fructose, that's what i'll name it then | 00:12 |
| LjL | Milan courthouse evacuated after two positives | 00:15 |
| BruntLIVE | Disney? | 00:15 |
| fructose | LjL: Among the updates are daily snapshots of the Johns Hopkins CSSE data | 00:15 |
| BruntLIVE | ohh that Milan | 00:16 |
| LjL | ... | 00:16 |
| LjL | fructose, those are available as nice CSV on github anyway | 00:16 |
| LjL | fructose, on the other hand, i hate how nobody thinks of making RSS feeds out of stuff like that list anymore | 00:17 |
| fructose | BruntLIVE: https://i.imgur.com/iWKad22.jpg | 00:17 |
| LjL | i also hate how my bot fails to post rss, but, well. | 00:17 |
| fructose | LjL: Whose repo? | 00:17 |
| LjL | fructose, i think it's JHU itself maintaining it, sec | 00:21 |
| LjL | fructose, https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 | 00:21 |
| fructose | I can't find one as nice as ProMed's | 00:24 |
| LjL | so uhm, Italy is also considering extending the quarantine area | 00:24 |
| LjL | didn't they understand what they did wrong the first time around? | 00:24 |
| LjL | publicly "considering" making somewhere a quarantine area... comes... with issues | 00:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test) at 23:16 UTC: CoronaVirusInfo: reports Covid-19 New York Collapsed on Street Coronavirus → https://is.gd/LN4zVi | 00:25 |
| LjL | also these areas are just scapegoats IMHO, it's obvious this thing is circulating all over Lombardy and most certainly in Milan, but media seem careful to avoid the very word "Milan" | 00:25 |
| BubuIIC1 | LjL: do you know how rome's doing? | 00:27 |
| LjL | BubuIIC1, seems to be safe so far, much to my chagrin | 00:27 |
| LjL | but the pope has a "cold" that's bad enough to make him cancel events | 00:27 |
| BubuIIC1 | to your chagrin? | 00:27 |
| LjL | BubuIIC1, oh yeah that's just because i'm from Milan, an Italy thing | 00:28 |
| BubuIIC1 | I see | 00:28 |
| LjL | it's just a joke, i wish them no harm | 00:29 |
| LjL | another emergency decree is about to be passed in Italy, it seems... but it's a bunch of Italy-wide "recommendations" without any sanctions for violating | 00:35 |
| LjL | widening the red zone seems like a much more serious issue to follow | 00:35 |
| LjL | especially if they misdo it, as i expect | 00:35 |
| LjL | BubuIIC1, also to be completely straightforward, i personally believe there *are* cases in Rome as in much of Italy and Europe at this point. it's more of a case of "where it's been found" than "where it is" by now | 00:36 |
| LjL | big cities just have cases circulating | 00:36 |
| BubuIIC1 | Yes, I'd agree. | 00:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 23:22 UTC: Labor targets Scott Morrison over 'trust' and economy – politics live: The economy holds the headlines as the government inches closer to releasing its stimulus package in response to coronavirus. All the day’s events, live → https://is.gd/d58spr | 00:37 |
| LjL | kind of old news, but https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert#current-status | 00:41 |
| LjL | Iran is going to release 54000 prisoners (all?) from their prisons "before they turn into disease harbors" (source: RAI just now) | 00:43 |
| python476 | hoi back | 00:48 |
| python476 | what a surprising idea | 00:49 |
| python476 | see, Iran regime is human | 00:49 |
| python476 | man, my part time job is saving my soul | 00:49 |
| Xip | None of you guys are, by any chance super experts regarding e-mail delivery? | 00:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 23:38 UTC: Sport Australia admits it gave Senate the wrong information on sports rorts – politics live: The economy holds the headlines as government inches closer to releasing its stimulus package in response to coronavirus. All the day’s events, live → https://is.gd/d58spr | 00:50 |
| Xip | Fuck I'm not going to take it, I need a fix already | 00:51 |
| Xip | There goes my 30 days quarantine I guess | 00:52 |
| Xip | This whole corona virus is bullshit.. It's only real if it's a bioweapon but it can not be.. | 00:53 |
| Xip | Because, as we don't got credible sources right? | 00:53 |
| python476 | Xip: you went from email to hazmat plots | 00:53 |
| python476 | real fast | 00:53 |
| Xip | Nervous, I just need some coke, been running around the place trying to find something.. Just a little bit | 00:54 |
| python476 | email / plot / coke | 00:55 |
| python476 | you a gift that keeps on giving | 00:55 |
| Xip | Oh about the emails.. | 00:55 |
| Xip | python476, Yeah uhm.. so I own a big company. Say it got like 100K+ users... now every mail goes to the spam folder. | 00:56 |
| Xip | python476, And I am clear in everything. You don't need to talk about SPF etc. | 00:56 |
| python476 | what's SPF ? | 00:57 |
| Xip | python476, Then nevermind. | 00:57 |
| python476 | single payer future ? | 00:57 |
| Xip | python476, Sender policy framework | 00:58 |
| python476 | Xip: out of curiosity, you're looking for (re)configuration tips of you mass mailer system | 00:58 |
| Xip | python476, It's ok. Nevermind all that. | 00:58 |
| python476 | don't worry, I don't have enough mind left ot mind | 00:58 |
| Xip | Fuck it, I'm getting drunk, I got a bottle of whiskey, plus I got that cigar that I smoked yesterday... that will make be happy | 00:59 |
| LjL | python476, consider that 23 members of Iranian parliament (not sure how many they are in total) are already sick... i think it's *a tad* out of control | 01:01 |
| LjL | feels good to live in one of only two countries where it's nearly as bad | 01:01 |
| LjL | and Korea is really better when you look at things in detail | 01:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 23:58 UTC: Sport Australia admits it gave Senate the wrong information on sports rorts – politics live: The economy holds the headlines as government inches closer to releasing its stimulus package in response to coronavirus. All the day’s events, live → https://is.gd/d58spr | 01:02 |
| LjL | %cases iran | 01:02 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In all areas in Iran, there are 2336 cases, 77 deaths (3.3% of cases), 291 recoveries as of Tue Mar 3 15:23:03 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=all areas for time series data. | 01:02 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.1% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 20.9% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 01:02 |
| Xip | Bioweapon! | 01:02 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, i'm not entirely sure whether that's the timezone it's supposed to be, but roughly speaking, it's around the right year and month, so it'll do i think | 01:02 |
| LjL | the link is wrong though | 01:02 |
| Xip | It's HIV in the air, it's dangerous. See, I'm not leaving the house. | 01:02 |
| LjL | i wouldn't say it's exactly HIV in the air | 01:03 |
| LjL | but sure, it's not sugar-free candy | 01:03 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: Not sure what you mean. | 01:03 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: "default=all" won't work. | 01:03 |
| tinwhiskers | Oh. I see | 01:03 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, the timestamps, i just ctime()'d them, they gave me a yeard in the 50000s, so i multiplied by 0.001, and now it's roughly the right time, but no idea if Python is treating it as UTC | 01:03 |
| Xip | Thee is no chance in hell I've got it, they got me straight from rehab home. Private rehab. Private car. | 01:04 |
| LjL | for the graph i just need to change the column | 01:04 |
| tinwhiskers | The timestamps are javascript (ugh) timestamps | 01:04 |
| Xip | Why the fuck didn't I just get drugs... | 01:04 |
| LjL | for the link i mean | 01:04 |
| tinwhiskers | so unix * 1000 | 01:04 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, should work | 01:04 |
| Xip | I got like 60+ beers, 2 bottle of whiskeys, I'll run out in a week | 01:04 |
| Xip | I got this real weed extract at home, 8% THC | 01:05 |
| Xip | That's quite low right? I won't get paranoid if I take some of that or? | 01:05 |
| Xip | Fuck, I'm retarded | 01:05 |
| LjL | %cases Italy | 01:06 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In all areas in Italy, there are 2502 cases, 79 deaths (3.2% of cases), 160 recoveries as of Tue Mar 3 21:03:06 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 01:06 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: how come the links for iran time series has "default=all"? | 01:06 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.1% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 33.1% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 01:06 |
| tinwhiskers | oh | 01:06 |
| LjL | Xip, this isn't really the right channel to ask about that i suppose | 01:06 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, i have "all areas" as filler for missing province, now it's fixed | 01:07 |
| Xip | LjL, If I am retarded? Guess not. | 01:07 |
| LjL | Xip, that too | 01:07 |
| Xip | LjL, I might be able to contribute to the conversation once I just fix my brain | 01:07 |
| tinwhiskers | ah. I see. "all" won't work. You should just remove the "?default=" part in that case. | 01:07 |
| LjL | mightn't we all | 01:07 |
| Xip | I just didn't know about this virus so I'm freaking out about it too. It is a bioweapon | 01:08 |
| LjL | it is not a bioweapon | 01:08 |
| Xip | LjL, Sure? | 01:09 |
| LjL | try to keep a composture in here please, there are enough "freaking out" channels | 01:09 |
| LjL | yes, sure | 01:09 |
| LjL | i live in an area that's 50km from a quarantined area and another 50km from another quarantined area that's about to be declared as such tomorrow | 01:09 |
| LjL | i can freak out, you can't freak out yet | 01:09 |
| LjL | take your turn | 01:09 |
| Xip | LjL, My rehab place is 10 KM from one place so, sorry to be so badass. | 01:09 |
| Xip | Anyway, whatever.. I get it. I'm just thinking. Why is China so heroic in their efforts killing this as it is literally the plague? | 01:11 |
| fructose | Xip: Please don't bullshit about it being a bioweapon. | 01:11 |
| Xip | China turned good all of a sudden? | 01:11 |
| python476 | oh shit you're out of medical support.. | 01:11 |
| Xip | I'll calm down ok? | 01:12 |
| python476 | little joke | 01:12 |
| python476 | some recruiter called today | 01:12 |
| LjL | Xip, i'm sorry if you are troubled by i can't afford to have this channel turn into... the above | 01:12 |
| LjL | i was busy for ten minutes fixing the bot code, and i see this | 01:12 |
| LjL | please do indeed calm down | 01:12 |
| python476 | low grade company (fake names to cover foreign employees) | 01:12 |
| python476 | anyway, girl asked me about my pay range | 01:12 |
| python476 | thought 100$ per hour, 700 per day | 01:12 |
| python476 | she litterally gasped | 01:12 |
| python476 | I think I over estimated my requirements :) | 01:13 |
| Xip | LjL, I understand, trust me | 01:13 |
| python476 | everybody chill down ! | 01:14 |
| python476 | I proclaim a quaranchill period of 48h | 01:14 |
| python476 | you're now forced to be cool | 01:14 |
| Xip | We use this channel for news and just seeing how things turns out. We'll see ##covid-19 as a new channel and discuss it, as it should be. I assume LjL wanted it to be that way. | 01:15 |
| LjL | why assume when you have the man right in front of you, metaphorically speaking | 01:16 |
| LjL | because if i really were in front of you you'd be covering your mouth with a makeshift mask and/or running away | 01:16 |
| Xip | LjL, I wouldn't what the fuck are you on about? | 01:16 |
| LjL | okay, then i take that back. still calm down | 01:17 |
| Xip | LjL, Now you got this fancy channel of yours. Keep it the way you like it. I'll stay calm too. | 01:17 |
| LjL | great! | 01:17 |
| tinwhiskers | weird passive-aggressive things to say | 01:17 |
| Xip | It was, I am sorry for that | 01:18 |
| Xip | On the other hand, I was stupid to say why this channel existed and he had a good point | 01:19 |
| Xip | LjL, so we discuss news and discuss as it comes right? | 01:19 |
| python476 | yeah let's go back to morbid infections please | 01:20 |
| python476 | this trolling is too depressing | 01:20 |
| Xip | LjL? | 01:20 |
| LjL | plus i'm stopping my youtube video every fifteen seconds to deal with it when i'm highlighted | 01:20 |
| LjL | i'd rather stop doing that | 01:20 |
| LjL | do you get my drift? | 01:20 |
| python476 | yeah stop youtubin | 01:20 |
| python476 | it's bad for health | 01:21 |
| Xip | LjL, okay boss. It's your channel. | 01:21 |
| LjL | python476, you're mistaken, i can agree with the general sentiment, but this is a risque piece of spoken music, quite an unusual thing to tickle my brain with | 01:22 |
| python476 | what is it | 01:22 |
| python476 | yesterday I took a trip to Louis Cole madness (Knower leader if you knew that band) | 01:22 |
| LjL | a piece of spoken music and version of the liar's paradox, as i am coming to comprehend | 01:22 |
| LjL | contingo probably knew right away | 01:22 |
| LjL | python476, i think this will disappoint in such a sense https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wWIm8j9RKSs | 01:24 |
| python476 | seems so very meta | 01:25 |
| LjL | gets more so | 01:26 |
| LjL | CDC starts to speak up i guess https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/118-us-coronavirus-cases-9-deaths-as-ramped-up-testing-uncovers-hidden-spread/ | 01:29 |
| Albright | %stats us | 01:30 |
| Brainstorm | Most used commands: watch_for_privmsg (132), watch_for_messages (132), watch_for_backlog (132), science (132), responds (132), quup (132), police (132), mc44 (132), collectlines (132), check (132) | 01:30 |
| Albright | %data us | 01:30 |
| Brainstorm | Albright: In all areas in US, there are 122 cases, 9 deaths (7.4% of cases), 9 recoveries as of Wed Mar 4 01:05:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 01:30 |
| contingo | the one I linked after is more entertaining to me | 01:31 |
| Albright | Really nine now. Damn. | 01:31 |
| Albright | %data jp | 01:31 |
| Brainstorm | Albright: Sorry, jp not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 01:31 |
| Albright | %data japan | 01:31 |
| Brainstorm | Albright: In all areas in Japan, there are 293 cases, 6 deaths (2.0% of cases), 43 recoveries as of Tue Mar 3 21:03:06 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Japan for time series data. | 01:31 |
| Brainstorm | Albright: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.7% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 12.2% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 01:31 |
| contingo | but several of my loved ones abandoned our convo after I shared it | 01:32 |
| Albright | Looks like the three new ones were also in King County. Were they from the same care home? | 01:33 |
| LjL | %data wisconsin | 01:41 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Sorry, wisconsin not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 01:41 |
| LjL | %data washington | 01:41 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Washington County, OR in US, there are 2 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 0 recoveries as of Tue Mar 3 04:03:02 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Washington County, OR for time series data. | 01:41 |
| LjL | urgh | 01:41 |
| LjL | why do you have tons of places named the same, silly americans | 01:41 |
| LjL | also really this thing has data by counties, but i don't even get machine-readable data by province for italy, and not at all by town? -.- | 01:42 |
| LjL | this is why we're doomed | 01:42 |
| twomoon | lol | 01:42 |
| python476 | alien historian will have a hard time explaining our extinction | 01:42 |
| python476 | "smartest primates on the planet were about to master everything but died due to a microbe and bad logistics" | 01:43 |
| LjL | python476, i meant just italy, but sure, i guess we're just one of the more painfully apparent examples | 01:44 |
| python476 | everything's fucked up bro | 01:46 |
| python476 | waste of time | 01:46 |
| sneep | japan's slowing down | 01:47 |
| fructose | sneep: Based on what evidence? | 01:50 |
| sneep | number of cases | 01:50 |
| python476 | fructose: <sneep> japan's slowing down <= here's a report | 01:51 |
| Albright | Japan hasn't had a new death in a few days. | 01:51 |
| fructose | sneep: I don't see that evidence | 01:52 |
| python476 | a few medical researchers started talking about "progress" in treating with side-therapies | 01:52 |
| python476 | using unrelated and known medicine on covid patients | 01:52 |
| fructose | python476: Link? | 01:53 |
| sneep | yeah maybe it's a bit early to say japan is slowing down, but it sort of looks that way | 01:53 |
| python476 | fructose: radio sorry | 01:53 |
| python476 | also, tonight I saw a family stocking food in their garage | 01:53 |
| python476 | nothing mindblowing, just a first for me, and it was so oddly natural | 01:54 |
| sneep | do they also have toilet paper? | 01:55 |
| python476 | not sure | 01:55 |
| python476 | water, rice .. and other things | 01:55 |
| python476 | why not TP | 01:55 |
| python476 | we're not in japan, no water jet ass cleaning | 01:56 |
| sneep | a lot of people bought toilet paper over the last few days and most stores are out of stock | 01:57 |
| sneep | (in japan) | 01:57 |
| python476 | so i've heard | 01:58 |
| python476 | people were doubly confused since it's japan | 01:58 |
| python476 | trending on youtube: recycle spam into TP | 01:58 |
| LjL | %title https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51723398 | 02:02 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: From www.bbc.com: Coronavirus: Iran temporarily frees 54,000 prisoners to combat spread - BBC News | 02:02 |
| LjL | i'm also watching a rather creepy video about the "forbidden" zones in china | 02:02 |
| LjL | i... think it's trustworthy, probably? | 02:03 |
| Albright | "Temporarily?" Are they expecting the prisoners will come back to prison later? | 02:03 |
| LjL | Albright, maybe they'll just shoot anyone without an ID | 02:03 |
| LjL | the parliament is 290 people says the article, so, that's 23 out of 290 MPs positive | 02:04 |
| LjL | %wa 23 / 290 | 02:04 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, Wolfram|Alpha (23/290): Decimal approximation: 0.079310344827586206896551724137931034482758620689655172413... → https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=23+%2F+290 | 02:04 |
| LjL | is it safe to assume at least 7% of Iran is infected? | 02:04 |
| LjL | or maybe the parliament was a bad place to be | 02:04 |
| LjL | but somehow i doubt that | 02:05 |
| Albright | "The man leading the fight against the coronavirus" right next to photos of WHO Teddy… Oh, BBC. | 02:06 |
| Albright | Anyway, I can't find anything in the article about whether the released are expected to return to prison or not. I guess it's just a permanent furlough. | 02:06 |
| python476 | LjL: weak extrapolation | 02:08 |
| python476 | politicians and citizen don't have the same lives | 02:08 |
| LjL | Albright, i think it's probably not something that anyone considers very important right now | 02:12 |
| LjL | python476, well, i *tend* to think that if anything, it will be worse for citizens | 02:12 |
| Albright | LjL: It sure is important to the prisoners. | 02:12 |
| LjL | hence treating 7% as the lower end of the range | 02:12 |
| LjL | Albright, well, unless they were sentenced to death, they probably deserve to survive this | 02:12 |
| LjL | %cases italy | 02:13 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In all areas in Italy, there are 2502 cases, 79 deaths (3.2% of cases), 160 recoveries as of Tue Mar 3 21:03:06 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 02:13 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.1% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 33.1% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 02:13 |
| Albright | Seeing what one can be sentenced to death for in Iran, I'd go much farther than that. | 02:13 |
| Albright | But sadly it seems that people with sentences longer than 5 years aren't eligible. | 02:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 01:14 UTC: GDP grew by 0.5% in December quarter, national accounts show – politics live: The economy holds the headlines as government inches closer to releasing its stimulus package in response to coronavirus. All the day’s events, live → https://is.gd/d58spr | 02:17 |
| python476 | LjL: yeah plausibly | 02:38 |
| python476 | I was just picturing ministers having more encounters with foreigners (politics trips, lobbies etc) | 02:38 |
| LjL | i want real news from this goddamned bot | 02:39 |
| LjL | i'll yank my rss module out and get in whatever thing i can find that does rss | 02:39 |
| python476 | LjL: we need to send parkour-journalists | 02:39 |
| python476 | urbanexp guys crossing borders | 02:39 |
| LjL | python476, how about https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1yXTlvTB08 | 02:39 |
| python476 | how old are you LjL | 02:41 |
| python476 | young anxious or old anxious ? | 02:41 |
| LjL | young anxious afraid for his old anxious family | 02:41 |
| LjL | and his young immunosuppressed sister | 02:42 |
| python476 | right i forgot about your sister | 02:42 |
| python476 | is she in a dedicated room ? | 02:42 |
| LjL | also, living in a country where no one can give me any decent guess as to why the stats are so much different from everywhere else | 02:42 |
| LjL | also, living in a world where many/most people seem to be in denial that this is Something Serious | 02:42 |
| python476 | (that video is just what I wanted, let's have more countries) | 02:42 |
| LjL | python476, no, she's at home, doing what she always does. best part? her apartment is above a weekly street market | 02:43 |
| python476 | I guess she lives in a soap bar now | 02:43 |
| LjL | you may want to rephrase that so it doesn't sound like a bad WW2 joke | 02:43 |
| python476 | oh that was absolutely not my intention | 02:44 |
| python476 | I was just saying she must be cleaning her hands a lot | 02:44 |
| python476 | (i dont even get what ww2 joke involves soap) | 02:44 |
| LjL | python476, i hope she does, but i don't trust she does | 02:45 |
| LjL | i can't really begin a sentence about this issue without her being already like "SURE I KNOW CALM DOWN" | 02:45 |
| LjL | the only good thing is her white body count is okay | 02:45 |
| python476 | good to know | 02:45 |
| LjL | python476, about "let's have more countries", i can show you the pictures i took today at the park where everybody wasn't giving a shit... again? | 02:47 |
| LjL | maybe next time i'll make that a video | 02:47 |
| LjL | ain't going into hospitals though, certainly not without a face mask, certainly not even with the face mask *that* guy is wearing which is basically a piece of cloth | 02:47 |
| LjL | also, ain't going into the red zone | 02:47 |
| LjL | (partly because the police would be like "lolk, sure") | 02:48 |
| python476 | what's the red zone ? | 02:48 |
| LjL | current term for the quarantined areas | 02:48 |
| python476 | oh you have one already right | 02:48 |
| dunnp | not the hot zone? | 02:48 |
| LjL | yellow zone is the regions that have restrictions on activities | 02:48 |
| LjL | red zone is the part you just can't leave | 02:48 |
| python476 | dunnp: 13 hot girls in your area | 02:48 |
| LjL | i am in a yellow zone | 02:49 |
| python476 | I delivered a sandwhich at the hospital tonight, didn't left my car but still | 02:49 |
| dunnp | hot zone is a book on ebola outbreak | 02:49 |
| LjL | python476, we have not one but two and the last evening news said they are probably announcing a third tomorrow because there's a spike in the Bergamo area | 02:49 |
| LjL | i am again not sure it was a good idea to say that in the news, but whatever | 02:50 |
| LjL | at this point it's everywhere anyway so who cares about their playing with colors | 02:50 |
| dunnp | just canceled a trip to Padova | 02:50 |
| LjL | dunnp, that sounds like a wise decision somehow | 02:50 |
| dunnp | for May but still | 02:50 |
| dunnp | was really looking forward to it | 02:51 |
| LjL | :\ | 02:51 |
| LjL | well let's hope we're all still there in May, for now | 02:51 |
| LjL | then maybe we can... like... rebuild the country and its tourism industry? should only take a decade or two | 02:51 |
| LjL | maybe i'm being optimistic | 02:51 |
| dunnp | we shall see | 02:52 |
| dunnp | worried about masks for hospitals | 02:52 |
| dunnp | we cant buy masks through our university procurment anymore because they are all sold out | 02:52 |
| LjL | i know, i was offered masks from America a couple weeks ago and i was like "naaaah don't worry i'll be fine" | 02:53 |
| LjL | good decision that one | 02:53 |
| Albright | It's like when I had the chance to buy Bitcoin at like $3 each | 03:02 |
| Albright | "naah, I don't get the point" | 03:02 |
| python476 | Albright: then "300$? top for ever" "3000$ ? absolute upper limit" | 03:03 |
| LjL | Albright, i bought them at less | 03:03 |
| LjL | made some too | 03:03 |
| python476 | then you fomobuy at 18000 and cry for 4 years | 03:03 |
| LjL | part were stolen, part were sold | 03:03 |
| LjL | now i have some bitcents that are actually... worth something | 03:04 |
| LjL | if i had the original amount i had i would be building an anti-pandemic bunker now | 03:04 |
| python476 | when you think that 50cent found out someone gave him 500btc and he forgot for years | 03:04 |
| ubLIX | 'fomobuy' i'm stealing that | 03:04 |
| Albright | Oh, I got in eventually and made a few bucks. But not nearly as much as I could have. | 03:04 |
| python476 | Albright: I'm sure traders have a saying like "there's never an 'as much as I could have'" | 03:04 |
| LjL | i have a bit of a cough. should i take the whole bottle of cough suppressant just in case i get dragged away as a plagueer when in public? | 03:05 |
| ns0s[m] | https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/ | 03:05 |
| Albright | %title | 03:06 |
| Brainstorm | Albright: From bedford.io: Cryptic transmission of novel coronavirus revealed by genomic epidemiology | 03:06 |
| skyofdust | benzonatate has always worked wonders with my coughs | 03:07 |
| skyofdust | just don't take more than the daily max because it has some toxicity | 03:08 |
| python476 | potential homemade masks https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/fd4hnr/homemade_face_masks_last_resort_solutions/fjf5i4e/ | 03:08 |
| skyofdust | I'm planning on using tubular scarves and below something else (Since I had a bicicle freak stage I got lots) | 03:09 |
| efylan | Those can be used to hold the filtering materials in place | 03:11 |
| LjL | part of that video i see empty streets, i'm like, okay, empty streets, i know, eery, but i get it | 03:12 |
| LjL | here is when i start getting the creeps https://youtu.be/A1yXTlvTB08?t=682 | 03:12 |
| LjL | skyofdust, i wasn't particularly serious, i've just had a bit of sporadic cough for months, also until we get to China-state-like-the-video-above, i think i can still cough without being executed. probably. | 03:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 02:10 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live updates: WHO warns protective gear 'rapidly depleting' amid recession fears → https://is.gd/sXgf6x | 03:13 |
| ubLIX | we heard of the rapid construction of field hospitals in China but I'm not seeing any headlines about global heroically rapid development of respirator/mask factories | 03:15 |
| skyofdust | Yeah I know what you mean, in the "swine flu" epidemic we had if you coughed in the bus or train everyone freaked out | 03:15 |
| pwr22 | <LjL "pwr22, is this London?"> Bristol | 03:20 |
| LjL | ubLIX, actually there has been a fair bit of that | 03:20 |
| LjL | ubLIX, like entirely unrelated companies suddenly converting to mask-making | 03:20 |
| ubLIX | a few billion units ought to do | 03:22 |
| LjL | seeing the policing in China is no doubt very scary... but i know i'm in the middle of an outbreak and, first sunny day, everybody's in a park acting as if it's the best day of early spring ever | 03:27 |
| LjL | that's also a bit scary in its own way | 03:27 |
| Xip | Enough IRC for me, I'll join in if I remember in 3-4 weeks. | 03:28 |
| LjL | i'd like to see... softer measures than the ones China has to be adopting now, but harder measures than the ones we are adopting, so that with a whole truckload of luck, we may not have to end up with China's measures | 03:28 |
| Xip | I met some friends, but yeah, lots of people are idling. | 03:28 |
| Xip | Take care | 03:28 |
| LjL | i'm honestly not sure why Schengen is even still open (well, "open", it's been mostly closed since 2015 but whatever) | 03:28 |
| LjL | Xip, you too | 03:28 |
| Xip | LjL, Sorry for behaving like a crazy person earlier, you know when | 03:29 |
| LjL | and mind i'm usually a big proponent of Schengen, i got mad when most of it got "temporarily indefinitely" closed | 03:29 |
| Xip | LjL, I'm almost out of it | 03:29 |
| LjL | Xip, it's alright, you went just far enough not to get banned | 03:29 |
| LjL | that's the trick | 03:29 |
| Xip | LjL, LOL! Ban me. You fucking narcissist. | 03:30 |
| LjL | uh | 03:30 |
| LjL | no. | 03:30 |
| Xip | Anyway, bye. | 03:30 |
| LjL | 'night | 03:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 02:30 UTC: GDP grew by 0.5% in December quarter, national accounts show – politics live: The economy holds the headlines as government inches closer to releasing its stimulus package in response to coronavirus. All the day’s events, live → https://is.gd/d58spr | 03:32 |
| Xip | LjL, I'm just messing with you. Thank you for making this channel, it may become important. Now I'm going to drive to my house up north.. far up north. | 03:32 |
| LjL | does this guardian feed really talk about anything but economy | 03:32 |
| LjL | Xip, when you meet saami that's probably safe enough... for now | 03:32 |
| skyofdust | Yeah, I intend to stick around I'd rather get informed here than in social media, it's gonna help a lotta people | 03:34 |
| Xip | LjL, Haha. I'll pet the reinedeers for you. I'll put a good word.. with, Santa. | 03:35 |
| LjL | my own rationalization for making and using this channel is i'm doing something "about" the virus instead of being powerless | 03:36 |
| LjL | also, i make a lot of channels | 03:36 |
| LjL | usually it's just me and my bot though | 03:36 |
| LjL | "After this point, community spread occurred and was undetected due to the CDC narrow case definition that required direct travel to China or direct contact with a known case to even be considered for testing. This lack of testing was a critical error and allowed an outbreak in Snohomish County and surroundings to grow to a sizable problem before it was even detected." | 03:37 |
| LjL | from the aforelinked https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/ | 03:38 |
| LjL | Spec, ↑ | 03:38 |
| Xip | LjL, Alright man, see you in a month. | 03:38 |
| LjL | and i thought i was pretty weird | 03:38 |
| skyofdust | Hahaha | 03:39 |
| tinwhiskers | :-) | 03:40 |
| LjL | this is sort of funny in a not very funny way https://old.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/fcv0tz/how_turkey_managed_not_to_have_covid19_cases/ | 03:40 |
| LjL | would work better in english, but, can't have everything | 03:40 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, is your file still updated every 30 min from the json? | 03:40 |
| tinwhiskers | yep | 03:41 |
| LjL | hmm i may switch to the json so i can just churn and give realtime updates on new cases | 03:41 |
| LjL | not tonight though, way too late to rewrite the whole thing | 03:41 |
| tinwhiskers | I think you'll not want to do that | 03:41 |
| LjL | because too many updates? | 03:41 |
| tinwhiskers | it turns out that the JH json file is still not updated as often as some other sources | 03:42 |
| tinwhiskers | I'm getting the latest JH data then updating that from other sources | 03:42 |
| tinwhiskers | so my csv file is considerably more current than the JH json file | 03:43 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, oh, alright | 03:44 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, are you creating the ultimate covid aggregator | 03:44 |
| tinwhiskers | not really | 03:45 |
| LjL | at this pace i'll know i'm a fatality before i've even gotten sick | 03:45 |
| tinwhiskers | heh | 03:45 |
| fructose | Madagascar still in the clear | 03:49 |
| tinwhiskers | heh. So is my country. | 03:49 |
| skyofdust | Over here the authorities are not behaving as they did with SARS the first time... | 03:50 |
| skyofdust | They seem like they don't care much this time around. | 03:51 |
| LjL | good going since this is obviously so much better than SARS | 03:51 |
| LjL | (clearly i'm being SARSastic) | 03:52 |
| skyofdust | lel | 03:52 |
| skyofdust | Travel is not being limited and we even took in a cruise ship that had a very high chance of having infected people. | 03:53 |
| skyofdust | But well, we had a real bad summer last year because of Dengue Fever, and a lot of people died. | 03:55 |
| skyofdust | I also caught the disease but recovered fully. | 03:55 |
| skyofdust | The mortality rate was really high, and everyone was acting normal. | 03:56 |
| LjL | so uh | 03:58 |
| LjL | %wa fixed-187-188-64-173.totalplay.net | 03:58 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, Wolfram|Alpha (totalplay.net (domain)): Web hosting information: name | Totalplay location | Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico host coordinates | 20° 40' 12"N, 103° 21'W → https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=fixed-187-188-64-173.totalplay.net | 03:58 |
| LjL | Brainstorm, honestly it'd have taken me less time to just look up who the ip block belonged to from routing tables | 03:59 |
| LjL | just saying | 03:59 |
| skyofdust | Hahaha, I think I need to configure a bouncer | 04:00 |
| LjL | skyofdust, so it gets normal if every year a bunch of people you know die from scary infectious diseases? | 04:00 |
| LjL | that'll be good to know in case this repeats on a yearly basis from now on | 04:00 |
| skyofdust | Oh no, last year was reeeeeally bad compared to other years. | 04:01 |
| skyofdust | Lots of heat and rain, and decreasing amphibian and insect predators populations made it possible | 04:02 |
| fructose | Any of these maps show where the cases of community transmission are? I just saw the one in New York. | 04:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 03:05 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live updates: WHO warns protective gear 'rapidly depleting' amid recession fears → https://is.gd/sXgf6x | 04:09 |
| LjL | how even who what https://youtu.be/A1yXTlvTB08?t=1014 | 04:11 |
| LjL | fructose, none that i know of (although i remember seeing some color coded map but who knows where), but while searching for one... lol? https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/areas-presumed-community-transmission-2019-ncov | 04:18 |
| LjL | the WHO reports tell you if local or imported | 04:18 |
| LjL | but that's not a mapp | 04:18 |
| LjL | or a map | 04:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 03:23 UTC: Frydenberg defends Coalition's economic record after national accounts – question time live: The economy holds the headlines as government inches closer to releasing its stimulus package in response to coronavirus. All the day’s events, live → https://is.gd/d58spr | 04:28 |
| fructose | LjL: Yeah, thanks anyway | 04:32 |
| LjL | https://multimedia.scmp.com/infographics/news/china/article/3047038/wuhan-virus/svg/hands.png | 04:40 |
| LjL | small things | 04:40 |
| LjL | the redder, the more likely to be missed when washing | 04:40 |
| LjL | this is also a daily reminder that https://multimedia.scmp.com/infographics/news/china/article/3047038/wuhan-virus/index.html is nice | 04:49 |
| LjL | although they haven't added much fancy graphs since last time i looked | 04:49 |
| LjL | but they keep it somewhat updated | 04:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 04:14 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live updates: WHO warns protective gear 'rapidly depleting' amid recession fears → https://is.gd/sXgf6x | 05:18 |
| Spec | fructose: community transmission in new york? | 05:22 |
| fructose | Spec: https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/03/2nd-case-of-coronavirus-confirmed-in-new-york-this-time-outside-nyc.html | 05:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test) at 04:35 UTC: We need leaders and a Government like this amidst this outbreak.: Singapore has really been impressive in handling of the virus in my opinion. People in Singapore mostly trust their Government. Here is a video, the Government officials decided to give bonuses to healthcare workers on the front lines and they decided [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/xOh9oB | 05:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test) at 04:45 UTC: Covid2019: CDC blocked FDA official from premises - POLITICO → https://is.gd/CrpsCY | 05:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 05:00 UTC: Coronavirus: Google leads tech charge to work from home: Google’s Dublin headquarters left eerily quiet as Twitter urges global staff to WFH → https://is.gd/H5DOoV | 06:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 05:12 UTC: Frydenberg defends Coalition's economic record after national accounts – politics live: The economy holds the headlines as government inches closer to releasing its stimulus package in response to coronavirus. All the day’s events, live → https://is.gd/d58spr | 06:27 |
| greyman | %data germany | 06:55 |
| Brainstorm | greyman: In all areas in Germany, there are 203 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 16 recoveries as of Wed Mar 4 05:33:04 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data. | 06:55 |
| greyman | %data worldwide | 07:00 |
| Brainstorm | greyman: Sorry, worldwide not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 07:00 |
| greyman | %data world | 07:01 |
| Brainstorm | greyman: Sorry, world not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 07:01 |
| petersjt014[m] | %data | 07:15 |
| Brainstorm | petersjt014[m]: Sorry, Spec: https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/03/2nd-case-of-coronavirus-confirmed-in-new-york-this-time-outside-nyc.html not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 07:15 |
| Albright | Lulz. The bot is charmingly buggy. | 07:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 07:00 UTC: The coronavirus crisis means No 10 can no longer fight the battles it craves | Gaby Hinsliff: The situation is too serious for Johnson and Cummings’ personal vendettas and destructive tendencies to continue When the weather changes in politics, it changes fast. It’s only a few weeks since Brexit was the biggest [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/RxXLtP | 08:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 07:20 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live updates: WHO warns protective gear 'rapidly depleting' amid recession fears → https://is.gd/sXgf6x | 08:32 |
| adventurer | %data australia | 09:21 |
| Brainstorm | adventurer: In all areas in Australia, there are 42 cases, 1 deaths (2.4% of cases), 21 recoveries as of Wed Mar 4 08:55:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Australia for time series data. | 09:21 |
| Brainstorm | adventurer: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.8% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 4.5% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 09:21 |
| adventurer | Nice bot | 09:22 |
| petersjt014[m] | hmm | 09:49 |
| petersjt014[m] | % | 09:49 |
| petersjt014[m] | %data all | 09:50 |
| Brainstorm | petersjt014[m]: Sorry, all not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 09:50 |
| petersjt014[m] | %data -h | 09:50 |
| Brainstorm | petersjt014[m]: Sorry, -h not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 09:50 |
| tinwhiskers | petersjt014[m]: there isn't actually an entry for all or world | 09:50 |
| tinwhiskers | Just the time series data | 09:51 |
| pwr22 | %data united kingdom | 09:51 |
| Brainstorm | pwr22: Sorry, united kingdom not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 09:51 |
| pwr22 | %data uk | 09:51 |
| Brainstorm | pwr22: In all areas in UK, there are 51 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 8 recoveries as of Tue Mar 3 16:13:26 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=UK for time series data. | 09:51 |
| pwr22 | Data on the Diamond Princess hasn't changed in like a week | 09:55 |
| pwr22 | Have they stopped reporting I wonder? | 09:55 |
| adventurer | is it true 20% of people who catch it get a bad disease? | 10:04 |
| adventurer | I mean I heard my age group had only a .4% chance of dying | 10:04 |
| adventurer | so i felt more worried i would get a mild version and spread it to others more vulnerable | 10:05 |
| petersjt014[m] | What do you mean by "get a bad disease"? Do you mean get severe symptoms? | 10:18 |
| Palm | I mean..hospitalized | 10:19 |
| Palm | pneumonia etc | 10:19 |
| petersjt014[m] | different countries have different thresholds for what they consider hospitalizable. A different measure would be better. | 10:21 |
| petersjt014[m] | I wanna say something like 'fever temperature', but even that is going to vary in impact per person | 10:23 |
| adventurer | petersjt014[m], how do fever temperatures vary from person to person? | 10:23 |
| adventurer | so could i check my temp see 37.3 and think no fever but it be a fever? | 10:25 |
| petersjt014[m] | A fever itself is a defense, it's essentially an attempt to kill an infectious agent by heat. | 10:27 |
| petersjt014[m] | Not all immune systems will 'judge' the virus the same way, so even if it was equally dangerous you likely would still see varying temperatures. | 10:27 |
| adventurer | Yes from personal experience sometimes I have been sooooo sick and a doctor thinks nothing of it because there was no temperature. Other times I have not felt as bad but had a high temp | 10:28 |
| petersjt014[m] | Plus, in some diseases/etc it's the fever that is fatal, and not all people will tolerate it as well as others. | 10:29 |
| adventurer | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_body_temperature | 10:30 |
| adventurer | hmm yes | 10:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 09:20 UTC: Politics: TUC urges ministers to extend statutory sick pay rights to 2m people in light of coronavirus - live news → https://is.gd/hrQfms | 10:30 |
| petersjt014[m] | There is probably a good standard-ish severity indicator that has been developed, but I don't currently know what it would be. | 10:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 09:42 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live updates: WHO warns protective gear 'rapidly depleting' amid recession fears → https://is.gd/sXgf6x | 10:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 10:19 UTC: Politics: 'Access is powerful card' - Eustice tells peers UK in strong position in fisheries negotiation with EU: live news → https://is.gd/hrQfms | 11:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 10:35 UTC: Politics: Eustice told to 'get real' as he tells peers UK will not use fisheries as bargaining chip in trade talks - live news → https://is.gd/hrQfms | 11:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 10:55 UTC: Retail industry: UK retailers hit by supply disruption amid coronavirus concerns → https://is.gd/Yj4rj4 | 12:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 11:01 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live updates: new cases confirmed in Scotland as Facebook says it will take down hoax claims → https://is.gd/sXgf6x | 12:21 |
| Evolver | You will get a lot more pertinent medical coronavirus news in ##nutrition and ##CompMed , and this has been the case for a month now, although neither channel focuses on it like this one does. | 12:33 |
| Evolver | If there is an expert here, maybe they can reconcile whether ARBs will actually help minimize lung damage caused by covid-19. | 12:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 11:37 UTC: Politics: Eustice told to 'get real' as he tells peers UK will not use fisheries as bargaining chip in trade talks - live news → https://is.gd/hrQfms | 12:57 |
| Timvde | %cases Belgium | 13:05 |
| Brainstorm | Timvde: In all areas in Belgium, there are 23 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 1 recoveries as of Wed Mar 4 12:52:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Belgium for time series data. | 13:05 |
| python476 | hoi | 13:29 |
| python476 | brb | 13:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 12:30 UTC: Coronavirus map: how Covid-19 is spreading across the world: Confirmed cases of Covid-19 now span 79 countries, with more than 3,100 deaths, all but 215 in mainland China – data correct at 23:59pm, 3 March → https://is.gd/bILzR1 | 13:34 |
| ubLIX | https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/china-suppressed-covid-19-with-ai-and-big-data/ | 13:39 |
| python476 | good coughing everybody | 13:39 |
| ubLIX | ah, the fabled "AI and Big Data" gambit | 13:39 |
| ubLIX | morning python476 | 13:39 |
| python476 | how are you | 13:39 |
| ubLIX | I wonder if western authorities could use Arm's equivalent of the Intel Management Engine to leverage similar strategic insight without troubling the populace to download a Pandemic App | 13:41 |
| ubLIX | not coughing yet, python476, how about you? | 13:41 |
| python476 | finer than the previous days in terms of flu-fears | 13:42 |
| python476 | even though I worked and saw people | 13:42 |
| ubLIX | becoming fatalistic over time? | 13:42 |
| python476 | nah | 13:42 |
| python476 | I've been at the bottom of the darkest pit since 2012 | 13:42 |
| ubLIX | oh | 13:42 |
| ubLIX | sry bud | 13:42 |
| python476 | don't be | 13:42 |
| python476 | just sayin, since then, covid or other issues are not moving my emotions a lot | 13:43 |
| python476 | life wisdom balancing effect | 13:43 |
| ubLIX | everything is adaptive in some sense, even PTSD | 13:43 |
| ubLIX | still, walk towards the light | 13:44 |
| python476 | I tap into survival instincts to do so | 13:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 12:45 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: first case confirmed at European Union offices: More cases in Scotland and Ireland, Italians in India test positive while Facebook says it will take down hoax claims → https://is.gd/sXgf6x | 13:59 |
| python476 | things are not going too crazy since yesterday it seems | 14:01 |
| python476 | plague.com world graph is not on exp anymore (so far) | 14:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 13:18 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live updates: Italy closes all schools and universities until mid-March → https://is.gd/sXgf6x | 14:26 |
| LjL | good... noon | 14:29 |
| python476 | hi LL | 14:29 |
| LjL | LL would be the italian version of me, i don't talk to that guy | 14:29 |
| LjL | anything big this morning while i was... erm, meditating? | 14:56 |
| python476 | i was meditating too | 14:57 |
| LjL | <tinwhiskers> petersjt014[m]: there isn't actually an entry for all or world ← with any luck today i'm going to add a few computed numbers | 14:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 13:49 UTC: Politics: 'I'm sticking by her' - Johnson strongly defends Patel at PMQs despite bullying inquiry: live news → https://is.gd/hrQfms | 15:05 |
| LjL | Chinese scientists claim that the #COVID19 virus has probably genetically mutated to two variants: S-cov & L-cov. They believe the L-cov is more dangerous, featuring higher transmitibility and inflicting more harm on human respiratory system. https://t.co/Ncv59QgP67 | 15:08 |
| LjL | (supposedly coming from Global Times, but cannot confirm this on the actual Global Times site) | 15:09 |
| LjL | %tell contingo: https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463 (bonus points if you can figure out which of these we have in Italy) | 15:10 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, I'll pass contingo your message when they are around. | 15:10 |
| BubuIIC1 | I revently read this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Deadly_second_wave | 15:13 |
| BubuIIC1 | > This increased severity has been attributed to the circumstances of the First World War.[90] In civilian life, natural selection favors a mild strain. Those who get very ill stay home, and those mildly ill continue with their lives, preferentially spreading the mild strain. In the trenches, natural selection was reversed. Soldiers with a mild strain stayed where they were, while the severely ill were sent on crowded | 15:13 |
| BubuIIC1 | trains to crowded field hospitals, spreading the deadlier virus. | 15:13 |
| LjL | BubuIIC1, there are also rumors of this one being much more lethal if you get re-infected by it. so far i think it's still only rumors | 15:14 |
| LjL | but you can get re-infected in the first place, and that's bad, and i think at this point that's established | 15:14 |
| LjL | (with what frequency though, i have no idea) | 15:14 |
| BubuIIC1 | <LjL "but you can get re-infected in t"> I don | 15:15 |
| BubuIIC1 | sorry. I haven't seen any scientific confirmations of this | 15:15 |
| BubuIIC1 | only media reports repeating other media reports | 15:15 |
| LjL | BubuIIC1, i've asked my resident virology here... at first he was exactly like you're being now. then later he said "there is STILL no hard evidence, but at best it can easily seem negative and then positive again and viral shedding can go on for a very unusually long period of time" | 15:16 |
| LjL | which i think was his way of telling me people get re-infected, without making me too scared | 15:16 |
| pwr22 | Big jump in UK cases | 15:16 |
| LjL | %cases uk | 15:16 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In all areas in UK, there are 53 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 8 recoveries as of Wed Mar 4 13:33:03 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=UK for time series data. | 15:16 |
| LjL | that's probably outdated, isn't it? | 15:16 |
| LjL | resident virologist* | 15:17 |
| swift110 | hey | 15:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 14:05 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live updates: Italy considering closing all schools and universities until mid-March → https://is.gd/sXgf6x | 15:17 |
| LjL | hi swift110 | 15:17 |
| iz | TIL about viral shedding, thanks chat and wikipedia | 15:19 |
| LjL | i am repeatedly restarting the bot right now to TRY to figure out why the rss thing is so bad, so it'll probably post the same bit of news on repeat while i do that, please bear with me | 15:19 |
| swift110 | hey LjL | 15:20 |
| iz | the youtube trend where ppl lie down flat on top of sheds :b | 15:22 |
| swift110 | oh | 15:22 |
| BubuIIC1 | LjL: https://globalnews.ca/news/6623287/coronavirus-multiple-infections/ | 15:23 |
| BubuIIC1 | this pretty much teels the same thing in different voices. | 15:23 |
| BubuIIC1 | it's far more probable and logical that these are continuations of the original infections | 15:24 |
| LjL | BubuIIC1, maybe, let's hope so. i'll point you to the person who's not wholly convinced when they're around | 15:24 |
| ubLIX | it's long been my (lay person) suspicion that acute illness following immune suppression (sleep deprivation, malnutrition, stress) is consistent with revival of historical (eg viral) latent infections. i don't know why this shouldn't be the case, and if so, i don't know why sar-cov-2 should be any different | 15:27 |
| LjL | ubLIX, though, i've no idea whether this virus remains latent forever. that's something about viruses that i had meant to ask contingo | 15:30 |
| ubLIX | depends on the virus, perhaps | 15:30 |
| LjL | some viruses "hide" where the immune system doesn't reach, and stay latent forever. but we seem to completely clear others, like flu viruses...? at any rate, it's different from bacteria because even if we kill all active virions in our body, our cells are still producing them | 15:30 |
| LjL | ubLIX, it probably does but i'd sure like to know on what grounds | 15:31 |
| LjL | ubLIX, which is also potentially important because many people have been wondering about possible long-term effect from catching this | 15:31 |
| LjL | mostly about the lung damage, i guess | 15:31 |
| LjL | but also about the virus staying latent i'd add | 15:31 |
| ubLIX | it does seem to follow a variety of courses, and we'll know more in the fullness of time :| | 15:32 |
| LjL | i just wonder how long i can take of FUD before i go clinically insane | 15:33 |
| ubLIX | i read a (speculative) paper from a Chinese author on the neuro-invasive potential of sar-cov-2 (other corona viruses have this potential) - the paper posited that neuro-mediated disruption of respiration could account for some of the more severe pneumonias | 15:34 |
| BubuIIC1 | LjL: HSV stay latent in the body, you can probably read up on some of the concepts around this there. | 15:36 |
| LjL | BubuIIC1, oh i'm WELL aware. me and my acyclovir prescriptions | 15:36 |
| ubLIX | certainly, if true, this would present a challenge for anti-viral therapy trying to clear the central nervous system of virus (blood-brain barrier) | 15:36 |
| LjL | BubuIIC1, in the case of HSV the latency stems from it hiding in nerve ganglia, where the immune system doesn't reach | 15:37 |
| LjL | but i feel that's not the complete picture | 15:37 |
| python476 | https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2020/03/02/hiv-drug-successfully-treats-coronavirus-patient-in-medical-first-in-spains-andalucia/ | 15:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 14:54 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: number of confirmed cases in UK jumps to 85: More cases in Scotland and Ireland, Italians in India test positive while Facebook says it will take down hoax claims → https://is.gd/sXgf6x | 16:01 |
| pwr22 | Apparently FlyBe is on the verge of going bust | 16:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 15:09 UTC: Lull at London City airport stokes fears of coronavirus impact: Passengers at business-dominated hub report falling demand, raising long-term fears for airline industry → https://is.gd/PR1PgR | 16:13 |
| Kris | jemand aus Deutschland hier | 16:20 |
| Spec | I told my parents to quarantine | 16:32 |
| tinwhiskers | Shingles (chicken pox) is another example of a virus remaining latent then springing up again at times of immune suppression. There is still no evidence that is what is happening with covid-19 but it's possible. | 16:32 |
| swift110 | yes | 16:33 |
| tinwhiskers | Spec: where are they? | 16:34 |
| swift110 | oh wow | 16:39 |
| contingo | with covid some observations of apparent reinfection or latent infection could be premature discontinuation of some virus-suppressing treatment (steroids), allowing levels to resurge from undetectable and making the illness appear biphasic | 16:39 |
| Brainstorm | contingo: At 2020-03-04 14:10:44 UTC, LjL told you: https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463 (bonus points if you can figure out which of these we have in Italy) | 16:39 |
| LjL | BubuIIC1, ↑ | 16:40 |
| LjL | not the bot | 16:40 |
| BubuIIC1 | 👍️ | 16:41 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, if it is, and every time you have a relapse you have a 10%ish risk of pneumonia and 2% death, and considering the age difference, well, i'd say that's going to be a pretty cool way to spend the rest of our lives given everyone now is being like, yes, this will eventually infect pretty much everybody | 16:42 |
| LjL | let's hope relapses are much more minor | 16:43 |
| LjL | HSV often(?) has a very strong onset but for some individuals it doesn't even have relapses, or very seldom... | 16:44 |
| tinwhiskers | Yeah. If it becomes endemic and we get annual waves of reinfection *and* symptoms of reinfection are more serious then we might be looking at a thinning of the population. | 16:45 |
| tinwhiskers | There still seems to be some epidemiologists that say the spread of the virus can be stopped but I can't see how that is possible now. | 16:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 15:39 UTC: Coronavirus live updates: number of confirmed cases in UK jumps to 85: More cases in Scotland and Ireland, Italians in India test positive while Facebook says it will take down hoax claims → https://is.gd/sXgf6x | 16:50 |
| Spec | oh boy oh boy | 16:56 |
| Spec | tinwhiskers: DC | 16:57 |
| Spec | 4 hours away from nyc, with this latent incubation time | 16:58 |
| Spec | gives me some pause for concern | 16:58 |
| contingo | various gels and sprays arrived | 17:03 |
| contingo | also my mother seems intent on arriving from Malaysia | 17:04 |
| tinwhiskers | Spec: tricky | 17:05 |
| LjL | contingo, more discussion of the furin thing you were dubious about occurred: | 17:06 |
| LjL | interestingly they dont mention anything about binding to furin instead of ACE2 (that we discussed here yesterday, those interested check the logs and search "furin"), but just talk about ace2. healthy humans dont have much ace2, so getting infection is much less likely if it binds to it (instead of furin, that is plenty). sars-1 binded to ace2, and therefore wasnt nearly as infectious. but this mutation making it to bind furin instead, is similar to HIV | 17:06 |
| LjL | and ebola (and im not sure but i think no other coronaviruses bind to furin) | 17:06 |
| LjL | contingo, do you think a spray disinfectant is useful? like, spray all clothing used outside as soon as coming inside? that's what i was thinking but we haven't bought one yet | 17:06 |
| tinwhiskers | I don't think that will be effective on clothing without saturating it | 17:08 |
| LjL | surfaces then? | 17:08 |
| tinwhiskers | Yeah | 17:08 |
| LjL | i guess on surfaces, liquid and a paper towel will still work as always though | 17:08 |
| tinwhiskers | But hopefully you're not bringing surfaces home with you :-/ | 17:08 |
| LjL | :P | 17:08 |
| LjL | no, don't worry | 17:09 |
| LjL | i don't do Microsoft | 17:09 |
| tinwhiskers | Heh | 17:09 |
| tinwhiskers | I have a surface book... Damn | 17:09 |
| tinwhiskers | But viruses on that, I'm used to | 17:10 |
| ubLIX | yanno, this would be a fiiine time for universal basic income to have already been in place | 17:19 |
| ubLIX | (millions of service-industry workers across the western world are going to go into work sick [ no sick pay ] because if they don't they will slow-motion die of poverty anyway) | 17:25 |
| python476 | hoi back | 17:28 |
| python476 | y'all still alive | 17:28 |
| python476 | microsoft for life ! #VBA #Word97 | 17:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 16:43 UTC: Politics: Using Huawei for 5G like letting Nazis build British radar in 1939, claims Duncan Smith - live news → https://is.gd/hrQfms | 17:51 |
| LjL | %cases italy | 18:08 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In all areas in Italy, there are 2502 cases, 79 deaths (3.2% of cases), 160 recoveries as of Tue Mar 3 21:03:06 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 18:08 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.1% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 33.1% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 18:08 |
| Spec | contingo: i have some 2 liters of ethanol now. should i use glycerin or see if i can find aloe? (I do grow aloe...) | 18:10 |
| Spec | S-cov and L-cov with one of them being even more transmissable and deadlier? neat | 18:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 16:55 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: UK coronavirus cases jump to 85 in biggest daily increase to date → https://is.gd/vqk3Po | 18:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 17:19 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live updates: UK cases jump as Italy death toll passes 100 → https://is.gd/sXgf6x | 18:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 17:34 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live updates: Italy to close schools and universities as death toll passes 100 → https://is.gd/sXgf6x | 18:40 |
| Spec | we should, like, do these things before it's a problem | 18:43 |
| Spec | :( | 18:43 |
| Spec | no other country has not gotten away with such actions | 18:43 |
| python476 | https://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/design/a31114696/durian-fruit-stinky-electric-chargers/ | 18:43 |
| twomoon | do what? | 18:43 |
| Spec | close schools/universities/public gatherings | 18:45 |
| twomoon | damn we really need Yang's UBI right about now | 18:46 |
| twomoon | so that people aren't overly incentivized to keep going to work | 18:47 |
| Spec | ah but we are | 18:48 |
| Spec | and underinsured/lack of healthcare will compound this issue | 18:48 |
| contingo | Spec I think the recipes involving aloe refer to actual premanufactured aloe gel product? Where you just mix the alcohol directly with the product and you're done. I haven't looked though and don't have experience of how to use the plant, if you just directly use the blended pulp or what | 18:49 |
| LjL | contingo, Spec: indeed, one thing i want to know is, what the hell makes hand gels gels? it's never listed in the ingredients. i thought it was glycerol initially but apparently you only use that in a tiny amount to keep the skin moist | 18:50 |
| LjL | ugh past 100 | 18:51 |
| LjL | %cases italy | 18:51 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In all areas in Italy, there are 3089 cases, 107 deaths (3.5% of cases), 276 recoveries as of Wed Mar 4 18:25:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 18:51 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.2% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 27.9% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 18:51 |
| LjL | 3.5%? | 18:51 |
| LjL | oh god | 18:51 |
| contingo | LjL it will take me some time to form a view about the more technical aspects of cutting edge thinking on covid's binding mechanisms and associated targeted drugs, you'll probably find others around who are more up to speed | 18:52 |
| contingo | I haven't been *in* virology for 15 years or so | 18:52 |
| Spec | contingo: yeah :-/ | 18:52 |
| Spec | LjL: probably aloe | 18:52 |
| Spec | aloe is a very jelly gel | 18:53 |
| twomoon | ljl do we have any age statistics of the deaths in italy? | 18:53 |
| twomoon | for the deaths* | 18:53 |
| LjL | no | 18:53 |
| LjL | i hate the government for that | 18:53 |
| LjL | i found nothing | 18:53 |
| twomoon | i read somewhere that the youngest to die so far is 55 years old but can't confirm it elsewhere | 18:53 |
| twomoon | that's pretty old | 18:54 |
| Spec | is it? | 18:54 |
| twomoon | yeah, out of 100 people the youngest is 55. that's super old | 18:54 |
| Spec | :( | 18:54 |
| LjL | contingo, "find others"... you think i know other people? what i'd like to know is, this S-cov strain which is more dangerous... how do i figure out based on, say, nextstrain phylogeny, whether it's the one we have? | 18:54 |
| LjL | twomoon, in theory we've been always told be the media that "virtually all" people were old and/or with preconditions | 18:55 |
| LjL | but that means nothing to me | 18:55 |
| LjL | i've seen hypertension and high cholesterol sometimes being cited as "preconditions" | 18:55 |
| LjL | that would mean virtually everyone | 18:55 |
| LjL | also look at the age statistics for Lombardy and you'll find that 55 is about as young as it gets ;( | 18:56 |
| LjL | https://ugeo.urbistat.com/AdminStat/en/it/demografia/eta/lombardia/3/2 | 18:56 |
| contingo | weren't there other people chatting here with some relevant research background? i can't remember if it was on here | 18:58 |
| twomoon | wow Lombardy is all geezed out | 18:59 |
| contingo | LjL do you have the link handy to the "rapid responses" or whatever published by the BMJ in response to the suggestion to trial hypertention meds | 19:00 |
| LjL | contingo, https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m406/rapid-responses | 19:01 |
| contingo | cheers | 19:01 |
| LjL | adding it to the topic too, next re-paste | 19:02 |
| LjL | and a couple others | 19:02 |
| contingo | LjL I've made a lot of jelly things... look on the ingredients list for something that's a hydrocolloid | 19:03 |
| LjL | contingo, they're just not listed. i think the law only requires listing of supposedly active ingredients | 19:04 |
| Evolver | contingo: have ARBs worked historically for other respiratory viruses? | 19:04 |
| LjL | i don't think other respiratory viruses link to anything like ACE or those other mentioned receptors... | 19:06 |
| contingo | agar, gelatin, methycellulose, xanthan gum, high molecular weight (long strand length) polyethylene polymers, are all used to gelatinize waters, off the top of my head | 19:06 |
| LjL | i'll see if amazon fancies selling any of those | 19:06 |
| LjL | but our pharmacy had some hand sanitizer today we we're good | 19:06 |
| LjL | they also stocked some fpp2 masks | 19:07 |
| LjL | but we only bought 1... it was €13 | 19:07 |
| twomoon | how are the P95 respirators? | 19:12 |
| tinwhiskers | Using a mask more than once is likely more dangerous than using no mask at all. | 19:12 |
| contingo | Evolver there's a lot of literature on viral diseases and ARB treatments, I haven't really trawled through it yet. The antiviral mechanism doesn't just have to be that the drug blocks viruses from binding to a receptor, the binding of the drug to the receptor affects downstream expression of products that are implicated in immune response, disease severity and progression etc | 19:12 |
| twomoon | anyone have any experience with P95s? | 19:12 |
| python476 | twomoon: nop | 19:15 |
| python476 | aha damn, ipa stocks on amazon stores are almost zero | 19:19 |
| twomoon | ipa? | 19:20 |
| python476 | isopropanol | 19:21 |
| python476 | alcohol | 19:21 |
| LjL | hmm i have a liter, i *thought* that would be enough, i hope so | 19:26 |
| LjL | it seems like a lot of stuff | 19:26 |
| python476 | there's one store with pack of 5l | 19:26 |
| python476 | maybe I should grab | 19:26 |
| LjL | yuriwho, the other place seems to have more people who understand some of this stuff but also depletes my energies much faster :( | 19:27 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 18:15 UTC: Health: Prof Chris Whitty: the expert we need in the coronavirus crisis → https://is.gd/i8WLc8 | 19:29 |
| contingo | I would focus on some basics | 19:29 |
| contingo | LjL are your parents more open to stocking up on staples now | 19:30 |
| contingo | and reserves of basic meds | 19:30 |
| yuriwho | yea, remember that right now we have a lot of bad signal to noise ratio in the media and not enough hard science/medical data for conclusive answers. There is a ton of speculation running rampant. | 19:31 |
| LjL | contingo, more open to staying at home, at least, and to only getting prescriptions from the doctor using the online access (although we still need to drop the request at the doctor's office, but i was there today, nobody was there, and there's a sign that says you can only go if you have an emergency and call first, and people with flu-like symptoms can't go and must call 112 instead) | 19:31 |
| LjL | contingo, politicians on TV saying "stay at home" apparently work wonders compared to myself giving them a million well-researched reasons to stay at home | 19:32 |
| LjL | which is partly the kind of thing that's frustrating me a lot lately | 19:32 |
| LjL | yuriwho, well that's what makes me annoyed and fearful, you know? media telling us "the dead were all old people with other conditions", but then i go on the ministry of health's site, on the civil protection's site, on the region of Lombardy site, and... i think there's a fourth... they are all unnavigable and do not provide ANY real information about what sort of patients the patients (alive or dead) are | 19:33 |
| contingo | there's been no acknowledgement along the lines of "you did tell us this was coming"? | 19:33 |
| LjL | contingo, if there was, it was very much a reading between the lines thing | 19:33 |
| LjL | contingo, like "we really didn't think... now we're kinda scared too..." | 19:34 |
| LjL | was about freaking time | 19:34 |
| contingo | ok | 19:34 |
| LjL | but then there's also my sister, whom i can barely talk to | 19:34 |
| LjL | contingo, i don't think there's going to be a huge shortage of the medicines we need, or of food... the important thing is my parents are finally ordering food online instead of actually going to the supermarket | 19:35 |
| contingo | right | 19:35 |
| contingo | you don't feel there's much to this news regarding India's moves to restrict phramaceutical exports and how that affects the world's supply of paracetamol etc.? | 19:36 |
| LjL | contingo, i had a walk with my mom (she looks very very stressed and exhausted and she needed it), i hope it's okay to just walk in the sunny open air even if we meet the odd person. it's just places like supermarkets or pharmacies that scare me. | 19:36 |
| LjL | contingo, i have not heard about any of that i'm afraid. closest i've heard is "when will China's factories that make things needed for many drugs reopen" | 19:36 |
| LjL | but i am a bit short on paracetamol | 19:37 |
| contingo | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51731719 | 19:37 |
| Spec | ya'll ready for sweet anecdotes | 19:37 |
| Spec | some guy from WA flew to RDA where my friend was, a week prior to my friend being there, he tested positive today (the guy who flew) | 19:38 |
| LjL | > erythromycin | 19:38 |
| LjL | i think that's a pretty important antibiotic | 19:38 |
| LjL | isn't it? | 19:38 |
| contingo | LjL paracetamol is the first drug mentioned there | 19:38 |
| LjL | i saw | 19:38 |
| contingo | yeah | 19:38 |
| Spec | innnncoming | 19:38 |
| contingo | Spec what is RDA | 19:38 |
| LjL | contingo, do you think it would be a good idea to get some broad spectrum antibiotics (not sure if i even can, though)? someone mentioned that, as obviously they are no use against covid, but, co-infections... | 19:39 |
| Spec | an airport, Raleigh Durham Airport | 19:39 |
| LjL | %flights RDA | 19:39 |
| LjL | %airport RDA | 19:39 |
| LjL | i thought i had made this thing | 19:39 |
| contingo | if you can, why not, and why not a good stock of the basics | 19:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 18:38 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live updates: Italy to close schools and universities as death toll passes 100 → https://is.gd/sXgf6x | 19:41 |
| contingo | I have some single dose azithromicin bombs, some doxycycline, one other common one. And randomly some gentamicin in my fridge | 19:42 |
| LjL | contingo, what are the basics that you think would be affected by this? i use paracetamol and acyclovir, then obviously i have my feelgood meds. my parents use those ACE2 things. i mean... all the things we use are probably a good idea (but in many cases i don't think our doctor can make another prescription for them if one was made recently). but do you have any "vital" drugs in mind aside from paracetamol? | 19:42 |
| Brainstorm | UnboundLocalError: local variable 'features' referenced before assignment (file "/home/brainstorm/brainstorm/bot/modules/where.py", line 579, in osm) | 19:42 |
| LjL | Brainstorm, that was pretty random uh | 19:42 |
| iz | antibiotics won't do anything vs a virus, right? | 19:43 |
| contingo | correct | 19:43 |
| iz | just useful if you get sick with something else | 19:43 |
| iz | that is bacterial | 19:43 |
| contingo | it doesn't seem a big cost to just get a good supply anything OTC you use, that would save the hassle of sourcing if you were all going into housebound mode for a period | 19:44 |
| twomoon | are you taking acyclovir to combat covid? | 19:45 |
| LjL | twomoon, no | 19:45 |
| Spec | just whiskey | 19:46 |
| contingo | there are some pathways whereby an antibiotic could conceivably have some antiviral properties too, but they're not to be thought of as antivirals | 19:46 |
| LjL | contingo, i think most things we use aren't very OTC, but i'll look... | 19:46 |
| twomoon | a lot of antibacterial and antiparasitics happen to show some ability to slow down viral spread | 19:47 |
| twomoon | in human cells | 19:47 |
| contingo | I'm stocked on paracetamol, antihistamines (the allergy ones and the tummy ones), PPIs, cough mixtures, decongestants, antiseptic ointments, first aid kits, uhmm | 19:48 |
| contingo | I have a small phramacy here | 19:48 |
| twomoon | ehh the average soccer mom probably has more | 19:49 |
| contingo | iodine dressings | 19:49 |
| contingo | distress beacons lol | 19:49 |
| contingo | vitamins | 19:50 |
| tinwhiskers | %data world | 20:07 |
| Brainstorm | tinwhiskers: In all areas in World, there are 95082 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 16 recoveries as of Wed Mar 4 19:19:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=World for time series data. | 20:07 |
| tinwhiskers | hrm. No deaths... | 20:07 |
| Kris | your are from`? | 20:08 |
| tinwhiskers | %data world | 20:08 |
| Brainstorm | tinwhiskers: In all areas in World, there are 95082 cases, 3250 deaths (3.4% of cases), 51235 recoveries as of Wed Mar 4 20:05:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=World for time series data. | 20:08 |
| Brainstorm | tinwhiskers: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.1% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 6.0% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 20:08 |
| Kris | i am from germany but, i am now at the iran | 20:09 |
| tinwhiskers | That's an unfortunate choice | 20:09 |
| LjL | contingo, antihistamines is a good one, but i think we have a variety of those, three types, so probably a lot of them too... we just bought a month's worth of PPI and i didn't intend to take them for longer... maybe some cough stuff should be re-bought | 20:09 |
| Kris | :-) | 20:09 |
| LjL | Kris, and you aren't getting the hell out of it? | 20:10 |
| LjL | Italy’s government is set to close cinemas and theatres and ban public events across the whole country to try to contain the coronavirus outbreak, according to a draft decree drawn up on Wednesday. | 20:11 |
| LjL | The decree, seen by Reuters, orders “the suspension of events of any nature... that entail the concentration of people and do not allow for a safety distance of at least one metre (yard) to be respected.” | 20:11 |
| LjL | It also tells Italians to avoid hugging and shaking hands to prevent as much as possible a further spread of the potentially deadly illness which has been mainly concentrated in the country’s northern regions. | 20:11 |
| Kris | i can not go out, my flight is going in two weeks, all flyes bevor all full | 20:11 |
| LjL | Kris, best of luck | 20:12 |
| Kris | mersi | 20:12 |
| LjL | i assume you can't cross the border with turkey | 20:12 |
| Kris | my flight goes teheran - frankfurt, no stop in istanbul | 20:13 |
| LjL | i mean by land | 20:14 |
| LjL | without flying | 20:14 |
| LjL | but maybe that'll expose you more to the virus anyway | 20:14 |
| LjL | bye, i guess :( | 20:15 |
| LjL | Sixteen new cases of the coronavirus have been confirmed in Stockholm, according to local authorities, taking the total number of cases in Sweden to 52. | 20:15 |
| LjL | %cases sweden | 20:15 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In all areas in Sweden, there are 35 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 1 recoveries as of Wed Mar 4 20:05:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Sweden for time series data. | 20:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 19:09 UTC: Politics: Labour leadership: Keir Starmer and Rebecca Long-Bailey interviewed by BBC's Andrew Neil - live news → https://is.gd/hrQfms | 20:18 |
| LjL | three more links added to the resources | 20:22 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: hey, | 20:23 |
| mefistofeles | how are things going | 20:23 |
| mefistofeles | ? | 20:23 |
| mefistofeles | %data germany | 20:24 |
| Brainstorm | mefistofeles: In all areas in Germany, there are 262 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 16 recoveries as of Wed Mar 4 20:05:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data. | 20:24 |
| LjL | mefistofeles, not good | 20:24 |
| LjL | %cases italy | 20:24 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In all areas in Italy, there are 3089 cases, 107 deaths (3.5% of cases), 276 recoveries as of Wed Mar 4 20:05:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 20:24 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.2% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 27.9% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 20:24 |
| LjL | aside from my own emotional rollercoaster | 20:24 |
| Kris | %data iran | 20:24 |
| Brainstorm | Kris: In all areas in Iran, there are 2922 cases, 92 deaths (3.1% of cases), 552 recoveries as of Wed Mar 4 13:33:03 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Iran for time series data. | 20:24 |
| Brainstorm | Kris: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.0% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ of cases undetected), and less than 14.3% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 20:24 |
| LjL | Kris, keep in mind the numbers for Iran are not to be trusted | 20:25 |
| Kris | i know | 20:25 |
| mefistofeles | I mean, what is that last number the bot spits? | 20:25 |
| LjL | Kris, 7% of Parliament is sick, so imagine the population | 20:25 |
| LjL | mefistofeles, deaths/(deaths+recovery), which imo is the only number that isn't a complete guess about this, although it's a definitely an upper estimate | 20:26 |
| LjL | mefistofeles, doing deaths/cases is very meaningless unless it takes the same amount to die as it does to recover | 20:26 |
| mefistofeles | that's a stupid number | 20:26 |
| mefistofeles | that doesn't say anything | 20:26 |
| mefistofeles | specially in the first days | 20:26 |
| LjL | well then so do all the other numbers | 20:26 |
| LjL | which is why the bot doesn't spit it out if it's out of a certain range, incidentally | 20:26 |
| LjL | if you have a crystal ball that can give us the actual mortality PLEASE i really do want to hear it | 20:27 |
| mefistofeles | yeah, but it is not a good number | 20:27 |
| LjL | it is an upper estimate, and it is stated as such | 20:27 |
| LjL | if it THE good number once the epidemic is over | 20:27 |
| mefistofeles | it's a bad upper estimate | 20:27 |
| LjL | okay, give me a better one | 20:27 |
| mefistofeles | the better one should be just taking the variance/std of the death rates and adding that to the mean, or similar | 20:28 |
| mefistofeles | and that probably wouldn't be more than 1% or 2%, if I have to guess | 20:29 |
| tinwhiskers | what death rates? | 20:31 |
| mefistofeles | from different countries or data sources (if there are any) | 20:31 |
| tinwhiskers | only death counts | 20:31 |
| mefistofeles | yeah, cases/deaths from different countries/sources | 20:32 |
| mefistofeles | or death/cases | 20:32 |
| tinwhiskers | that's the obvious and wrong way to do it | 20:32 |
| mefistofeles | sure, but taking the relative frequency of death vs death+recovered is worse | 20:33 |
| LjL | variance of deaths/cases doesn't solve the obvious bias in any way | 20:33 |
| LjL | deaths/cases is consistently underestimated if it takes longer to recover than to die | 20:33 |
| LjL | or the other way around, i can't even think proper rn | 20:33 |
| LjL | it's not a matter of "jittery" data | 20:33 |
| LjL | it's a systematic error | 20:33 |
| mefistofeles | sure, that's why I'd be adding the variance, or twice of it | 20:34 |
| tinwhiskers | ok | 20:34 |
| mefistofeles | to get some confidence interval, which is still wrong/biased but "better" | 20:34 |
| LjL | ... i just said something that leads to the opposite conclusion | 20:34 |
| LjL | it's not better | 20:34 |
| twomoon | they keep saying 3.4% death rate...that's absurd it can't be that high | 20:34 |
| LjL | twomoon, what stops it? | 20:34 |
| mefistofeles | it is actually lower for women, afaik | 20:34 |
| LjL | pretty sure it can | 20:34 |
| twomoon | undiagnosed cases | 20:35 |
| tinwhiskers | Personally I agree that giving upper and lower bounds is better than giving a precise and incorrect value. | 20:35 |
| mefistofeles | yeah, they surely have many undiagnose cases | 20:35 |
| LjL | twomoon, does that change anything in practice even if that were the case (which at this point i doubt), except that undiagnosed cases will infect even MORE people causing MORE deaths? | 20:35 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: no, the opposite | 20:35 |
| mefistofeles | if they die they WILL be reported | 20:35 |
| mefistofeles | even if undiagnosed (when alive) | 20:35 |
| iz | it doesn't kill you instantly, it takes like 2-3 weeks | 20:36 |
| mefistofeles | if they don't die they will never get into the stats | 20:36 |
| mefistofeles | or more likely, never | 20:36 |
| LjL | mefistofeles, yes, that is the OTHER possible systematic error, which leads to my LOWER estimate where i basically assume that 2/3 of the cases are unreported | 20:36 |
| LjL | did you see that part?= | 20:36 |
| LjL | because i have both parts | 20:36 |
| LjL | those are two possible sources of errors | 20:36 |
| LjL | in opposite directions | 20:36 |
| LjL | and we don't know how much of any of them we actually have | 20:36 |
| twomoon | lol this is a literal type of 'survivorship bias' mefistofeles | 20:36 |
| LjL | (except at this point i guess we can have an idea of how long the illness lasts before dying, so if i had the time series data i could do something like "deaths/(cases one week ago)") | 20:37 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: yes, but it's very wrong to thing the rate is the same for that 2/3 part of unreported cases, they are unreported because they are probably mild and never got bad to lead to death | 20:37 |
| mefistofeles | s/thing/think | 20:37 |
| Brainstorm | mefistofeles meant to say: LjL: yes, but it's very wrong to think the rate is the same for that 2/3 part of unreported cases, they are unreported because they are probably mild and never got bad to lead to death | 20:37 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, what do you think about the above? i am not parsing any time series data right now but that'd be sort of interesting, if i can find any reasonable figure for the time it takes to die on average | 20:37 |
| twomoon | yes exactly i agree mefistofeles | 20:37 |
| LjL | mefistofeles, i don't assume the rate is the same... i assume those are non-fatal | 20:37 |
| LjL | i assume there's 2/3 more cases, which don't result in fatalities | 20:38 |
| iz | i think it's too soon to be making guesses about what will happen w/ the newly diagnosed or still yet to be diagnosed cases | 20:38 |
| LjL | okay you know what, just don't use the bot | 20:38 |
| tinwhiskers | yes, going back two weeks (assuming a two-week incubation) would give good results. | 20:38 |
| mefistofeles | yeah, it's too soon, even for CHina | 20:39 |
| tinwhiskers | no, wait. you need the average time to death as well | 20:39 |
| mefistofeles | recovered cases there are catching up "fast" to new cases, and that's normal and expected | 20:39 |
| mefistofeles | so that's why considering death to recovered ratio in Italy is pretty wrong | 20:39 |
| LjL | which will quickly make the upper boundary lower | 20:39 |
| LjL | much to everyone's relief | 20:39 |
| mefistofeles | I mean, in this moment | 20:39 |
| iz | yeah, it's just because there are exponentially more cases in week 1 vs week 0 and week 2 vs week 1 | 20:39 |
| contingo | what about the scenario in which a non-negligible of unreported cases are fatal, and have been attributed to flu | 20:40 |
| tinwhiskers | erm. No you don't need incubation... just enough time for cases to resolve. | 20:40 |
| contingo | *amount | 20:40 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, if i do a variant of deaths/cases, i think what i need is the number of cases n days ago where n is the time it takes from diagnosis to death | 20:40 |
| iz | yeah, idk about avg death time, but for quarantines they have been doing about 2-3 weeks | 20:40 |
| tinwhiskers | if you assumed everyone who will die dies within 4 weeks of getting symptoms, then that would be ok | 20:40 |
| tinwhiskers | umm | 20:41 |
| mefistofeles | what one can actually do is taking the derivatives or cases in some kind of time window, I did this for early China cases | 20:41 |
| mefistofeles | and one can see how the recovery rate is always higher than the death rate | 20:41 |
| iz | yeah | 20:41 |
| mefistofeles | and even the new cases rate | 20:41 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: yeah | 20:41 |
| LjL | my energy is being depleted arguing about this when it could be depleted stocking stuff that's going out of stock | 20:42 |
| LjL | so i'm taking a break from this discussion | 20:42 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: sure | 20:42 |
| mefistofeles | Chili con carne!! | 20:42 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, the thing is i don't want to get time series data and find the stuff from n days ago. do you think...? | 20:43 |
| tinwhiskers | I don't follow | 20:44 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, i'm gently hinting towards you providing a csv with a snapshot of data from the relevant number of days ago :P | 20:45 |
| tinwhiskers | JH already has that on github | 20:45 |
| LjL | okay | 20:45 |
| mefistofeles | I mean it hasn't even been near that "29%" the bot spitted in the worse case (Wuhan) | 20:45 |
| mefistofeles | not even close | 20:45 |
| tinwhiskers | mefistofeles: no | 20:46 |
| LjL | i'm not sure how else i can explain the concept of a theoretical upper boundary | 20:46 |
| LjL | further than i already have | 20:46 |
| LjL | and without bursting a vein | 20:46 |
| twomoon | we need to create the concept of a 'reasonable theoretical upper bound' | 20:46 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: I mean, I can say for sure 100% is a higher upper boundary | 20:46 |
| mefistofeles | that doesn't make it a good guess | 20:46 |
| twomoon | maybe those are just two completely separate things tho | 20:46 |
| tinwhiskers | the concept is fine. calculating it is not | 20:46 |
| mefistofeles | yours is closer to that kind of guess | 20:46 |
| LjL | it even says "between" and then "less than" to make it even clearer ffs | 20:46 |
| LjL | mefistofeles, yes, and i can provide an upper boundary that's less than 100% | 20:47 |
| LjL | can you provide one that's even less and that is STILL a reliably upper boundary? | 20:47 |
| LjL | because deaths/cases plus two sigmas isn't | 20:47 |
| mefistofeles | yes, I have told a couple of better estimates already | 20:47 |
| twomoon | let's please provide an upper bound that isn't a higher death toll than the black plague okay? | 20:47 |
| LjL | Brainstorm, part | 20:47 |
| tinwhiskers | a rough value would be to take todays death count as a fraction of the cases from 4 weeks ago | 20:47 |
| LjL | this should solve it | 20:48 |
| mefistofeles | lol | 20:48 |
| contingo | https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/04/transparency-is-needed-to-reassure-uk-public-as-coronavirus-spreads | 23:41 |
| Hoffman | fat chance | 23:42 |
| contingo | hi Hoffman | 23:42 |
| Hoffman | do you think now is a good time to offload my cases of p100 respirator cartridges | 23:43 |
| Hoffman | or should I wait to gouge more | 23:43 |
| Hoffman | or barter for hand sanitizer | 23:43 |
| contingo | where are you located? | 23:44 |
| python476 | Hoffman: pro TraderOne[m] | 23:44 |
| python476 | woops sorry | 23:44 |
| python476 | gd night | 23:44 |
| Hoffman | gnyte | 23:44 |
| Hoffman | contingo: boston | 23:45 |
| contingo | maybe wait | 23:45 |
| contingo | %8ball should Hoffman offload his cases of p100 respirator cartridges now? | 23:46 |
| Brainstorm | contingo, Signs point to yes | 23:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 22:36 UTC: Australian economy: Australian government stimulus package to protect economy from coronavirus impact expected within days → https://is.gd/V0s2WP | 23:47 |
| LjL | %tell ublix: I don't know how exactly you mean the Guardian being subtly non-independent but I do know their whole COVID-19 feed seems wholly centered on economy | 23:48 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, I'll pass ubLIX your message when they are around. | 23:48 |
| LjL | or maybe i can tell him myself, such timing | 23:48 |
| ubLIX | lol | 23:48 |
| ubLIX | hi | 23:48 |
| LjL | hi | 23:48 |
| ubLIX | with re-non independence, i would have to dig out sources. i would expect this might take me a day or two. | 23:49 |
| LjL | ubLIX, not worth it | 23:49 |
| LjL | i'll just trust only what i've personally written on wikipedia | 23:49 |
| ubLIX | paraphrasing my yesterday comment about gist, the gist was The Guardian and the UK government are in bed together, so you only have to expend extra parsing-effort when the story is something UK gov might care about | 23:51 |
| ubLIX | but i would have to revisit this story (and sources) myself to update its validity | 23:52 |
| contingo | sounds like an oversimplified view at best | 23:55 |
| LjL | ubLIX, well i have just a bit of cognitive dissonance with that because the way i imagine the guardian normally, they're like at the opposite end of... thinking... from the UK government | 23:55 |
| ubLIX | *my sense of its validity | 23:55 |
| ubLIX | contingo: ofc it is a simplified view; this is #covid-19, not #tinfoil forever | 23:56 |
| LjL | ubLIX, i think that was just his way of saying "you're wrong" | 23:56 |
| ubLIX | LjL: indeed | 23:56 |
| ubLIX | omg don't make me do a research project on The Guardian :| | 23:57 |
| LjL | no no | 23:57 |
| LjL | research which meds to buy like everybody else here | 23:57 |
| LjL | also, oxygen | 23:57 |
| Hoffman | got plenty of that | 23:58 |
| Hoffman | I hope | 23:58 |
| Hoffman | otherwise we have way worse problems | 23:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 22:55 UTC: Australian politics: Coronavirus to cost Australia's GDP 'at least' 0.5% as stimulus package planned – politics live → https://is.gd/MlVQFx | 23:59 |
| contingo | they are consistently fierce critics of the government, but they also didn't help with a more effective opposition | 23:59 |
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