contingo | tinwhiskers I could explore that option, over the coming... indefinite period of time | 00:01 |
---|---|---|
contingo | a town in Sabah, Malaysia named Kota Kinabalu used to be my go-to escape destination, because it was really cheap, but good healthcare, food, social stuff, right next to great coral reefs and primary rainforest | 00:03 |
contingo | but not so ideal now | 00:03 |
tinwhiskers | I have vietnam in my sights next. Amazing how they have not had any cases for ages considering they share a border with China. | 00:04 |
twomoon | that is bizarre. even indonesia finally reported some cases | 00:04 |
twomoon | are there still tigers in malaysian forests? | 00:05 |
phil | https://twitter.com/JeremyKonyndyk/status/832616259598610432?s=19 | 00:05 |
phil | This was pretty spot on | 00:05 |
Brainstorm | Australia: +5 confirmed (now 60), +1 recoveries (now 22). Japan: +3 confirmed (now 364). US: +6 confirmed (now 221). Santa Clara, CA, US: +6 confirmed (now 20). World: +14 confirmed (now 98126), +1 recoveries (now 53950) | 00:06 |
contingo | twomoon yes! In West Malaysia, in the remotest regions of the largest national park | 00:07 |
contingo | apparently there might be other sites, but that's best known one | 00:12 |
twomoon | i suppose hanging durians falling on you are more of a threat than tigers these days | 00:14 |
contingo | at the field stations I've been to I think #1 cause of injury was people hacking their own limbs with parangs/machetes when trying to clear vegatation | 00:18 |
LjL | urgh | 00:18 |
contingo | but windfall of branches is a big deal | 00:18 |
LjL | Santa Clara, CA! | 00:19 |
contingo | elephants are dangerous and do cause problems, wild boar too... | 00:20 |
LjL | wild boar cause problems in Rome, for that matter | 00:21 |
LjL | like, not quite the city center, but almost | 00:21 |
contingo | sun bears can be scary but I don't know of any actual attacks | 00:21 |
LjL | Italy in general is going wild with boars for some reason | 00:21 |
twomoon | wild boar scare me | 00:24 |
twomoon | i've seen them in Hong Kong | 00:24 |
BruntLIVE | YEAH yeah | 00:30 |
python476 | hi back | 00:34 |
python476 | whats up on your front | 00:35 |
Brainstorm | ๐ธ Chongqing, Mainland China: +10 recoveries (now 512) | 00:36 |
LjL | contingo, i was submitted this supposed piece of advice for "verification" (originally in italian, so obviously by my parents)... https://paste.ee/r/4xztf/0 the advice about drinking frequently seems just like something that's at least not harmful, but what about fibrosis tending to be present before other symptoms, and this peculiar "test" of holding your breath for 10 seconds? completely made up, or kernel of truth? | 00:37 |
LjL | %data italy | 00:42 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In Italy, there are 3858 cases, 148 deaths (3.8% of cases), 414 recoveries as of Thu Mar 5 18:43:03 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 00:42 |
contingo | uh | 00:42 |
LjL | oh lord why does the mortality rate keep getting worse | 00:42 |
phil | %data Japan | 00:43 |
Brainstorm | phil: In Japan, there are 364 cases, 6 deaths (1.6% of cases), 43 recoveries as of Fri Mar 6 00:05:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Japan for time series data. | 00:43 |
LjL | bit different mortality eh... but Japan's sample is small. how about | 00:44 |
LjL | %data Korea | 00:44 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In South Korea, there are 6088 cases, 40 deaths (0.7% of cases), 135 recoveries as of Fri Mar 6 00:05:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=South%20Korea for time series data. | 00:44 |
contingo | I would say if you can't hold your breath for ten seconds without issues then yeah, you have some issue | 00:44 |
contingo | that's all I'd say | 00:44 |
LjL | contingo, heh, okay | 00:44 |
contingo | if you can hold it, it doesn't mean you aren't infected | 00:45 |
contingo | I'd say this is pretty much solid gibberish | 00:46 |
TDC | Pure FUD Dr. Francis Boyle Full Interview: Coronavirus Is An Offensive Bioweapon bitchute.com/video/tkiC9POPQYdC/ | 00:46 |
tinwhiskers | no, that's FUD ^ | 00:47 |
LjL | contingo, yeah i thought so. i do have a little more concern about the fibrosis though, in terms of like, is it there even when nearly asymptomatic, and does it actually go away even if you get only "mild" pneumonia... i guess we have no answers to these things, but when you consider this is likely to become an actual pandemic (as in, most people infected), if we're all going to have a virus that makes our lungs worse, it's not exactly great news | 00:47 |
tinwhiskers | oh, I'm confused.... never mind :-/ | 00:47 |
LjL | TDC, i thought you had left over finding yourself in a channel with people whose ideas you didn't share | 00:47 |
tinwhiskers | TDC, you are correct. That is complete FUD. | 00:48 |
TDC | LjL huh? i went lookin at the mushroom boards for a bit, little happenin in Georgia yet | 00:49 |
LjL | TDC, fair enough. i need to warn you though that the kind of statement you left this channel with isn't particularly welcome | 00:49 |
python476 | because your cars design are too good not to be from evil | 00:50 |
TDC | bout the urine ? | 00:50 |
LjL | TDC, well, that sounded a bit out-there, but then you went full "yet you let a dr inject aborted baby fetus cells into your brain? theres logic 4 ya" and that's when if you hadn't left yourself i'd have probably given you a hand, is all | 00:51 |
TDC | cars design ? oh tdc .... I run my car on vapor.... | 00:51 |
TDC | 70mpg | 00:51 |
TDC | ohhh, ya... i usually get kikd speakin what i determinne ''hard truth''' i dont Like getin 3D bans | 00:53 |
tinwhiskers | You could try not speaking nonsense... | 00:53 |
TDC | coming from tinhat wearer.more irony 4ya | 00:54 |
tinwhiskers | oh, that's *much* better | 00:54 |
TDC | if logic trumps personal belief, geathers will get russell'd huh ? | 00:55 |
TDC | Feathers | 00:55 |
tinwhiskers | agreed. Now you just need to bring some logic to the table. | 00:55 |
TDC | I'll go bak to a bible thumper chan than... I'm sure you will all breathe a sigh of reluef then. ? | 00:56 |
tinwhiskers | ok | 00:56 |
tinwhiskers | heh | 00:56 |
LjL | okay speaking of hats, let's look at some italy-like numbers drawn out of a hat | 00:57 |
LjL | %data iran | 00:57 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In Iran, there are 3513 cases, 108 deaths (3.1% of cases), 739 recoveries as of Fri Mar 6 00:05:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Iran for time series data. | 00:57 |
LjL | well looking at their numbers they're actually evolving a lot better than us | 00:57 |
LjL | https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Iran;Italy uncannily close, really | 00:58 |
tinwhiskers | yes. Quite surprising the outcomes for people seem to better there than Italy. | 00:58 |
LjL | well, not if you make a temporary assumption that their numbers are from thin air | 00:59 |
tinwhiskers | good point | 00:59 |
LjL | which seems to be what most people i've heard believe | 00:59 |
LjL | but that still doesn't make Italy's numbers any good | 00:59 |
phil | I would think Japan's mortality rate would be high given their population demographics | 00:59 |
tinwhiskers | Japan is another interesting case. Very linear infection trajectory. | 00:59 |
LjL | phil, right, that was given to me as a possible explanation for Italy being that bad. but i looked at the statistics: Lombardy is pretty old but not any older than Italy as a whole, and Italy as a whole is actually a bit younger than Japan | 01:00 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, yes, they seem to be managing it almost incredibly well. it keeps increasing, keeps increasing... but stays linear | 01:00 |
LjL | but they're not the only ones, only the ones with the biggest numbers | 01:00 |
LjL | (that are linear) | 01:00 |
tinwhiskers | It kinda looks like it's very slowly picking up, but they seem to be managing very well. | 01:00 |
LjL | (also compared to some others, they're *very* exactly linear) | 01:00 |
LjL | omg, Japan is light yellow on white now | 01:01 |
LjL | do you just hate my eyes | 01:01 |
tinwhiskers | yeah... Maybe I should drop yellow from the pallette | 01:01 |
LjL | here are the virtuous https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Japan;Singapore;Vietnam;Hong%20Kong;Taiwan | 01:01 |
tinwhiskers | coming up with a good palette proved more difficult than I expected | 01:02 |
twomoon | jesus 3.8% morticity rate now....that's impossible | 01:02 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, so do it all over again and make the background black :P | 01:02 |
LjL | > morticity | 01:02 |
LjL | i'm afraid it's not very impossible | 01:03 |
LjL | %data World | 01:03 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In World, there are 98126 cases, 3356 deaths (3.4% of cases), 53950 recoveries as of Fri Mar 6 00:33:03 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=World for time series data. | 01:03 |
Brainstorm | LjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.1% (assuming deaths/cases with โ of cases undetected), and less than 5.9% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 01:03 |
twomoon | i'm praying for tokyo right now | 01:03 |
LjL | now, my bot's "mortality range" estimates have been quite harshly criticized, but when you look at a large sample (such as the world's), you see that 5.9%, which is not *that* much higher from what you might expect if things get quite out of control, like in Wuhan | 01:03 |
LjL | (although Wuhan's theoretically better) | 01:03 |
LjL | %data Wuhan | 01:03 |
Brainstorm | LjL: Sorry, Wuhan not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 01:03 |
LjL | %data Hubei | 01:04 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In Hubei, Mainland China, there are 67466 cases, 2902 deaths (4.3% of cases), 40592 recoveries as of Thu Mar 5 15:53:03 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Hubei for time series data. | 01:04 |
Brainstorm | LjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.4% (assuming deaths/cases with โ of cases undetected), and less than 6.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 01:04 |
twomoon | that's a much tighter range now, yeah | 01:04 |
LjL | well, so, if Italy can't treat patients somewhat successfully, at least 4.3% seems quite possible | 01:04 |
twomoon | didn't wuhan get the worse strain of the two? | 01:04 |
twomoon | let's just assume that italy got the less deadly strain | 01:04 |
LjL | not really, also, these "two strains" theory was rebuffed | 01:04 |
twomoon | ahh ok | 01:05 |
twomoon | wasn't paying attention to latest news | 01:05 |
Brainstorm | ๐ธ Argentina: +1 confirmed (now 2). ๐ธ Mainland China: +3 recoveries (now 52266). ๐ธ Inner Mongolia, Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 65). ๐ธ Switzerland: +1 confirmed (now 119). ๐ธ U.A.E.: +2 confirmed (now 29). ๐ธ United Arab Emirates: +1 confirmed (now 29). ๐ธ World: +5 confirmed (now 98131), +3 recoveries (now 53953) | 01:06 |
LjL | twomoon, you shouldn't take a preliminary study as established "news" in the first place. we talk about them, but they're just what they are | 01:06 |
LjL | studies get peer-reviewed for a reason | 01:06 |
twomoon | yeah that's true | 01:07 |
tinwhiskers | LjL: where are you getting the stats updates from? | 01:14 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, you | 01:15 |
tinwhiskers | oh :-) | 01:15 |
tinwhiskers | how often are you polling for changes? | 01:16 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, every 0.5 seconds | 01:17 |
LjL | no every... i don't remember | 01:18 |
tinwhiskers | haha | 01:18 |
LjL | five minutes | 01:18 |
tinwhiskers | ok | 01:18 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, keep in mind every time someone calls the command it polls your server anyway, because i do like to do things efficiently and conserving bandwidth | 01:22 |
tinwhiskers | fwiw, mine only update every 30 minutes at xx:05:00 and xx:35:00 | 01:22 |
tinwhiskers | yeah | 01:22 |
tinwhiskers | no worries about that | 01:22 |
LjL | well but it's hard to hardcode those two particular times so i'll just keep polling blind ;( | 01:23 |
tinwhiskers | but I don't care that you're polling every 5 minutes. That's entirely reasonable. | 01:23 |
LjL | also, make it more often, we want to see the victims practically as they drop dead | 01:23 |
tinwhiskers | lol | 01:23 |
Hail_Satan | victims are just statistics | 01:23 |
python476 | statistics are victims too | 01:24 |
tinwhiskers | ok, every 15 mins now | 01:24 |
LjL | 80% of statistics are victims | 01:24 |
LjL | yay | 01:24 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, it also helps my code turnover time because now i don't have to wait 30 minutes to see what i did wrong in the code! | 01:25 |
tinwhiskers | heh | 01:25 |
LjL | damn | 01:26 |
LjL | there are practically no oxygen concentrators left on Prime :( | 01:26 |
LjL | i knew i should have ignored what my parents said and bought one anyway | 01:26 |
LjL | also by "practically" i mean "" | 01:26 |
tinwhiskers | I didn't know of such a thing | 01:26 |
tinwhiskers | how does it work? | 01:27 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, there was one that was "just" โฌ130... it would probably burst into flames but anyway, there were only 3 left, and by the time i was uncertain on whether to get it, it was gone. but there were more for between โฌ250 and โฌ300. now most look over โฌ300 and they are not Prime so they may as well not exist | 01:27 |
tinwhiskers | does it chemically extract some of the other gases? | 01:27 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, Wikipedia says there are two methods of operations | 01:27 |
LjL | but i didn't understand the first thing about either | 01:27 |
tinwhiskers | ok | 01:28 |
tinwhiskers | it uses expendable cartridges? | 01:28 |
LjL | anyway i understand they provide something like 50% oxygen-rich air | 01:28 |
LjL | don't think so | 01:28 |
tinwhiskers | wow. neat | 01:28 |
LjL | my dad's old, and a smoker | 01:28 |
LjL | it is like... in case he gets bad pneumonia from this, and the healthcare system is gone | 01:28 |
tinwhiskers | yeah. that sounds like a great idea | 01:29 |
LjL | well, was like, when they still had them | 01:29 |
tinwhiskers | :-( | 01:29 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, but i discussed it with my mom (pretty sure my dad would have been just mad) and she was... almost mad. i tried to make it sound reasonable but she was like "no" | 01:29 |
LjL | i mean, technically i could do it anyway | 01:29 |
tinwhiskers | hmm | 01:29 |
LjL | but it's not great to create more tensions when we're all stuck inside a home and can barely go out | 01:29 |
tinwhiskers | getting to say "I told you so" will be a somewhat hollow victory. | 01:30 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, they didn't even outright admit it last time they realized it (which was when i was telling them that the elderly should stay at home, and they ignored that, and three days later the head of government said it, and then they were like oh, okay) | 01:30 |
tinwhiskers | yeah, you mentioned that :-p | 01:30 |
LjL | i guess i'll have "I TOLD YOV SO" embossed on his grave | 01:31 |
LjL | that should solve it | 01:31 |
tinwhiskers | heh | 01:31 |
contingo | In Loving Memory but HE SHOULD HAVE LISTENED TO HIS SON | 01:32 |
LjL | weird though, .co.uk still has a bunch on Prime... they have increased in price but they are there | 01:33 |
LjL | %tr >de oxygen concentrator | 01:33 |
Brainstorm | LjL, English to German: SAUERSTOFFKONZENTRIERER (MateCat) โ Sauerstoff-Konzentrator (Google) โ Sauerstoffkonzentrator (Wikipedia) โ Sauerstoff #Konzentrator (Apertium) | 01:33 |
tinwhiskers | sounds tasty | 01:34 |
LjL | okay german, i get it you're german | 01:34 |
LjL | .de has barely any left in stock | 01:34 |
LjL | or... none, since the one i'm seeing is really some other thing | 01:34 |
tinwhiskers | well, TIL, oxygen concentrators... I always assumed they used tanks of o2 in hospitals. | 01:35 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, they do | 01:35 |
LjL | if you need to deliver *a lot* of oxygen a concentrator won't do, i guess | 01:35 |
tinwhiskers | *solely | 01:35 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, i think concentrators are more used by people with COPD that's not advanced enough they need *a lot* of oxygen, since they're easier to stuff into a backpack than a super-heavy oxygen bottle | 01:36 |
tinwhiskers | ok, these are more for home use. right. | 01:36 |
LjL | meh i'm pissed off :( | 01:36 |
Brainstorm | ๐ธ Mainland China: +{value} recoveries (now 52304) ๐ธ Fujian, Mainland China: +{value} recoveries (now 278) ๐ธ Guangxi, Mainland China: +{value} recoveries (now 217) ๐ธ Heilongjiang, Mainland China: +{value} recoveries (now 380) ๐ธ Shandong, Mainland China: +{value} recoveries (now 602) ๐ธ US: +{value} cases (now 229) ๐ธ World: +{value} cases (now 98139), +{value} recoveries (now 53991) | 01:36 |
LjL | partly at myself | 01:36 |
LjL | see | 01:36 |
LjL | this is an example where i can do faster code turnover | 01:36 |
tinwhiskers | :-) | 01:36 |
tinwhiskers | How much do the oxygen concentrators you're looking at cost? | 01:37 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, โฌ300 and above now, pretty much... but they were โฌ250 and above before, except for that one oddball โฌ130 one, so it's not like they've skyrocketed. the big thing is they aren't sold on Prime, though, which means... well, i'm not buying a โฌ300 item from some random seller and their shipping | 01:38 |
tinwhiskers | not bad | 01:38 |
Hail_Satan | %tr >de flamethrower | 01:39 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, this is the one that used to be โฌ130 (on amazon.it though, no idea on co.uk before) https://www.amazon.co.uk/ETE-ETMATE-Portable-Concentrator-Generators/dp/B07RSZ6BKN/ref=sr_1_11?keywords=oxygen+concentrator&qid=1583455123&sr=8-11 | 01:39 |
LjL | Hail_Satan, won't work with a leading space | 01:39 |
Hail_Satan | %tr >de flamethrower | 01:39 |
Brainstorm | Hail_Satan, English to German: Flammenwerfer (Apertium, MateCat, MateCat, Google, Wikipedia) | 01:39 |
LjL | at least they all agree | 01:39 |
LjL | MateCat doubly so | 01:39 |
Hail_Satan | how dare MateCat agree with MateCat :D | 01:39 |
LjL | that's a bit weird of cats, yeah | 01:40 |
LjL | they usually don't | 01:40 |
contingo | the main way I have yet to prep now | 01:41 |
contingo | is to stop being sick in the first place | 01:41 |
contingo | whatever bug I have, it's really annoying | 01:43 |
contingo | anything on top of this would definitely be a doubly whammy | 01:43 |
LjL | contingo, i'm taking a B vitamin complex. because they have been supposed to boost your immune system since time immemorial, they were probably taking them in babylonia. however, the only effect i can verify is my pee becoming *very* yellow | 01:43 |
contingo | are you drinking plenty of water? | 01:44 |
LjL | contingo, i could do better... but i don't mean as in very dense, it doesn't look dense, just... kinda fluorescent | 01:45 |
LjL | maybe it's a B vitamin complex plus some radioactive boost | 01:45 |
python476 | I went to Paris today | 01:45 |
python476 | for interviews | 01:45 |
python476 | bro, a woman came in the train | 01:45 |
python476 | coughing like crazy | 01:45 |
python476 | heavy breathing, 5 minutes | 01:45 |
python476 | I almost fell laughing | 01:46 |
LjL | if you expect not to get sick in Paris, you obviously have wrong expectations from Paris | 01:46 |
Hail_Satan | she gonna die | 01:46 |
python476 | LjL: traditional Paris pest killed covid | 01:46 |
LjL | ah, clever | 01:46 |
python476 | if one wants to cause a panic in a train, she did it perfectly | 01:46 |
python476 | I think one lady ran away | 01:46 |
python476 | in any case I had my hand sanitizer so I took it out, and all hot girl nearby started having wild sex with me, I was the alpha male | 01:47 |
python476 | (warning: absurd joke inserted somewhere above) | 01:47 |
LjL | if i went on the train with an N95 mask i'd probably get stabbed | 01:48 |
LjL | and not even by a hot girl | 01:48 |
LjL | oh, i was mistaken on amazon.co.uk still having o2 concentrators on Prime... i had simply failed to click on the Prime box correctly. or rather, Amazon failed at UI, since the checkmark was there but the page hadn't reloaded evidently | 01:49 |
python476 | heh | 01:49 |
python476 | that's a book story | 01:49 |
LjL | well, this is encouraging. i mean, it makes me think that if everyone else bought them, then my idea must not have been *completely* stupid | 01:49 |
LjL | although to be fair, there's a lot of things everybody does that are *completely* stupid | 01:49 |
mandiblegrip | contingo: Can confirm the yellow pee from the B vitamin complex | 01:51 |
contingo | OK I didn't know it was a thing | 01:52 |
Brainstorm | ๐ธ Mainland China: +10 recoveries (now 52314) ๐ธ Beijing, Mainland China: +4 cases (now 422), +1 recoveries (now 298) ๐ธ US: +1 cases (now 230) ๐ธ World: +1 cases (now 98140), +10 recoveries (now 54001) | 01:52 |
contingo | they're out of ECMO machines too | 01:55 |
LjL | contingo, that doesn't sound like a typical Prime product | 01:55 |
contingo | my Lemsip stockpile will have to suffice | 01:56 |
LjL | contingo, how COVID-like are your symptoms at present? :P | 01:56 |
contingo | no cough, no sore throat | 01:58 |
contingo | fatigue, aches, bedtime sneezing | 01:58 |
contingo | for nearly two weeks | 01:58 |
contingo | no sinus congestion | 01:59 |
contingo | it feels like when you just start to come down with a proper flu, all the aches and ughness | 02:00 |
contingo | but it refuses to develop into anything concrete, or to go away | 02:01 |
LjL | argh | 02:01 |
LjL | so here's the mysterious reason why my rss feed parser isn't really working | 02:01 |
tinwhiskers | contingo: I've had a persistent hard breathing, "heavy" lungs and pain when I inhale, and lethargy. Similarly, no sinus congestion. | 02:01 |
LjL | maybe i should have thought about looking at the obvious thing | 02:01 |
contingo | you know me, I usually run or work out every day and have copious energy for side projects | 02:02 |
LjL | https://paste.ee/r/qObbo/0 | 02:02 |
contingo | the system is definitely down with something | 02:02 |
contingo | tinwhiskers hmm, I have also felt slightly short of breath, and a few twinges... | 02:03 |
contingo | %cases Tonga | 02:03 |
Brainstorm | contingo: Sorry, Tonga not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 02:03 |
LjL | contingo, i have that sort of thing periodically and it lasts a couple of days and comes back pretty often... no sneezing, but fatigue mainly and that sensation like i'm about to get flu | 02:03 |
contingo | how long for, tinwhiskers? | 02:03 |
contingo | I might "challenge" it in a few days, if it's the same. Make myself do some exercise and not nap. And see if that provokes anything | 02:05 |
tinwhiskers | gah. Bloody third world internet.... 3-4 weeks now. I've had two courses of antibiotics so it's probably not bacterial. | 02:06 |
tinwhiskers | Although I have had pneumonia before and it takes weeks to clear up after the infection is knocked on the head, so I guess it's possible. | 02:07 |
Brainstorm | ๐ธ Mainland China: +46 recoveries (now 52360) ๐ธ World: +46 recoveries (now 54047) | 02:07 |
tinwhiskers | The doctor couldn't hear any lung gurgling this time though so I'm really uncertain. | 02:07 |
Hail_Satan | its on its way out | 02:08 |
contingo | my mother had severe mycoplasma pneumonia several years ago (which has left her with some lung damage, LjL), and it took half a year to resolve | 02:08 |
tinwhiskers | mmm | 02:08 |
LjL | :( | 02:08 |
Hail_Satan | yeah I believe I had a SARS variant in 2004-5 and coronavirus this year | 02:09 |
Hail_Satan | both times, lungs seem permanently affected | 02:09 |
contingo | she reminded me today that I was hospitalized for four days when I was 14, with pleurisy | 02:09 |
contingo | so all our lungs are suspect | 02:09 |
tinwhiskers | oh. neat | 02:10 |
Hail_Satan | at least it wasn't dropsy | 02:10 |
LjL | now i'm feeling a *lot* better about missing the window of opportunity for the o2 concentrator | 02:10 |
contingo | Hi, Hail_Satan | 02:10 |
Hail_Satan | o/ | 02:10 |
tinwhiskers | Interesting...pleurisy. | 02:10 |
contingo | that's the name of my home network | 02:11 |
Hail_Satan | what, "Pleurisy" or "Hail_Satan?" | 02:11 |
contingo | well actually "Satan is Lord" | 02:11 |
contingo | (I live next to a small evangelical church) | 02:12 |
Hail_Satan | oh nice | 02:12 |
Hail_Satan | have you seen the movie??? | 02:12 |
contingo | yeah so it's really edgy | 02:12 |
contingo | no | 02:12 |
Hail_Satan | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8k2e7BXpsc | 02:12 |
Hail_Satan | I highly recommend it | 02:12 |
Hail_Satan | I joined the Satanic Temple after watching this | 02:13 |
tinwhiskers | contingo: we have a suspected case here but no labs to test so no confirmed cases in Tonga :-) | 02:13 |
tinwhiskers | ignorance is bliss | 02:14 |
contingo | good horns on those guys | 02:14 |
Hail_Satan | Everyone I showed this to howled with delight | 02:15 |
Hail_Satan | At first a few hippies were like "not cool, I'm not into actual evil maaan" | 02:15 |
Hail_Satan | took em a second | 02:15 |
Brainstorm | ๐ธ Canada: +8 cases (now 45) ๐ธ Mainland China: +7 recoveries (now 52367) ๐ธ Switzerland: +1 cases (now 120) ๐ธ World: +9 cases (now 98149), +7 recoveries (now 54054) | 02:22 |
iz | man, cruise ship quarantine seems like the worst idea | 02:32 |
iz | i guess it's better than just letting everyone onto the mainland | 02:33 |
iz | but it's like.. turning a few cases into hundreds | 02:33 |
Hail_Satan | true, but on the other hand, there's nothing anyone can do to stop the spread | 02:34 |
Hail_Satan | nothing works | 02:34 |
iz | yet another reason to never go on cruises | 02:34 |
LjL | iz, i guess while aerosol transmission wasn't very ascertained, they maybe thought that as long as they kept everyone quarantined into their cabins except for necessities, it would be manageable | 02:36 |
LjL | but then if there's aerosol transmission it gets all into the air ducts, plus now we know it's all over toilets | 02:37 |
LjL | %u ๏ฟฝ๏ฟฝ | 02:39 |
iz | yeah, just that many ppl that close together is a recipie for transmission | 02:39 |
iz | the one off the coast of japan caused many of the others to get it | 02:39 |
iz | and they are doing another one off the coast of california right now | 02:40 |
LjL | what the heck are those two characters Brainstorm posted at the end O.o | 02:40 |
iz | prob a chinese multi-byte character that is just being printed as 2 bytes of ascii | 02:40 |
iz | or wait, it's not all chinese | 02:41 |
iz | maybe some unicode character that is multibyte? | 02:41 |
LjL | i just have no idea why it'd post that since it's not in the code | 02:44 |
LjL | anyway, it appears that Reddit hates me a bit too much even when i'm not *actually* hammering it with RSS requests so much | 02:46 |
LjL | so i'm going to cycle my router to get a new IP and hopefully mend it | 02:46 |
LjL | see you on the other side | 02:47 |
sneep | LjL: This happens when lines get cut off at IRC's limit of 512 chars and a unicode symbol and the cut off happens in the middle of a unicode symbol | 02:49 |
sneep | -and a unicode symbol | 02:50 |
LjL | oh | 02:50 |
LjL | i guess i can send it from Matrix instead | 02:50 |
LjL | or, uhm, just use the existing provisions i have for long lines, maybe | 02:50 |
LjL | tootlestime | 02:52 |
LjL | Professor Jonathan Shewhuk of UC Berkeley has this to say about COVID-19 in a lengthy, informative, and concerned email to his students: | 03:01 |
LjL | "An estimated 20% of cases require hospitalization (allegedly 50% in Italy), with a mean hospital stay of 10 days, usually with pneumonia symptoms. And although the virus is deadliest among the old and sick, some young, healthy people have died. Your odds of survival are very high, but if you have a severe case, it might be the worst experience of your life. Many patients need to be intubated and kept on ventilators. Moreover, if there are too many | 03:01 |
LjL | cases at once, then like in Wuhan, there won't be enough ventilators." | 03:01 |
dunnp | :( | 03:04 |
LjL | i'm angry, i'm angry at my parents for not letting me do what i thought was appropriate given the information i had (and now think even MORE appropriate given the information i have now) | 03:05 |
LjL | i'm angry at myself for not doing it anyway | 03:05 |
LjL | and i'm angry at all the speculators who as soon as they here "people will want X" buy all of the X's | 03:06 |
LjL | also i'm angry at the government and WHO who have been sending mixed signals of all sorts all along | 03:06 |
dunnp | what would you have done? | 03:06 |
LjL | bought an o2 concentrator | 03:06 |
LjL | and also why are 50% of patients hospitalized in Italy? we can get to hear endless hours of TV programmes most of which now concern the coronavirus | 03:07 |
LjL | yet nobody tells us anything about the basic data | 03:07 |
LjL | or even the fact our basic data are so different from other countries | 03:07 |
LjL | Spec, โ | 03:07 |
LjL | this is going to be a year (at least?) of basically never leaving home, which will probably bring us to yell at each other all day, with every time one of us leaves home coming with the risk my parents will get deadly pneumonia and clearly there won't be enough ventilators to deal with them, unless they get it early | 03:08 |
LjL | (and i'm not even sure it's "early" enough yet) | 03:08 |
skyofdust | Don't panic, and don't be angry at yourself, that will only go in circles and it's not helpful to yourself or your loved ones. | 03:13 |
skyofdust | What can you do now? | 03:13 |
LjL | vent about it on IRC | 03:13 |
LjL | and keep watching in case an o2 concentrator pops up on prime | 03:14 |
LjL | which seems unlikely | 03:14 |
LjL | and also, learn for the future that if i think something and i feel pretty convinced of it, yet people near me look at me like i'm crazy, i'm probably right anyway | 03:14 |
LjL | assuming there's a future to speak of | 03:15 |
skyofdust | What about furin inhibitors? They could act as profilaxis | 03:18 |
LjL | i haven't understood a thing about that whole thing. ACE1, ACE2, AT1, furin, and does it need to be blockers or inhibitors... if contingo can't make sense of that then i'm pretty sure neither can i | 03:19 |
LjL | additionally, those are prescription medications. either my parents are already on the "right" ones, or they aren't, and i can't do much about that | 03:19 |
skyofdust | Probably more and more research will come with the coming days, for now just ask your folks not to leave the house | 03:20 |
LjL | i'm almost in disbelief that when i searched "concentratore ossigeno" on amazon three days ago, there were like a dozen, and now there's only... books about them | 03:20 |
skyofdust | Whoa :/ | 03:21 |
LjL | skyofdust, me leaving the house will be just as bad, though, since they'll almost ceertainly get it from me | 03:21 |
dunnp | are o2 concentrators for people with sleep apnea? | 03:21 |
LjL | no, that's CPAP machines | 03:21 |
LjL | CPAP machines maintain a positive pressure of air so that your throat doesn't fold onto itself, but it's normal air, with the normal 20%ish oxygen | 03:21 |
skyofdust | Well then there's not much we can do to take control of the situation | 03:21 |
LjL | o2 concentrators make you breathe air with more oxygen | 03:22 |
skyofdust | My Dad is 65 and is a smoker, if the virus gets near our hometown I'm sure I'll go mad | 03:24 |
skyofdust | If I fly there it'll be worse because I'll have to get to an airport and travel throught 2 cities and that wouldn't be good. | 03:25 |
skyofdust | Man I hadn't given it much thought. | 03:26 |
skyofdust | I really hope the virus doesn't spread to my town, I haven't seen dad in a year and the thought of having seen him for the last time is ...weird. | 03:27 |
fructose | skyofdust: Containment does not seem realistic at the moment. | 03:28 |
LjL | my dad is 75, a smoker, and i'm in one of the currently worst outbreak areas... so yeah it does seem like i can't do much at this point, but it's hard not to feel angry about the previous ability to do something having been hindered in various ways | 03:28 |
LjL | anyone know of any site that makes periodic searches on amazon and tells me if something matching my search shows up? | 03:29 |
skyofdust | Yeah I'm sorry of how I said it, we can't help that | 03:29 |
LjL | i have that for ebay, but no idea about amazon | 03:29 |
MikeJoel | %data US | 03:31 |
LjL | Brainstorm! | 03:32 |
Brainstorm | LjL! | 03:32 |
LjL | %data US | 03:32 |
LjL | %covid US | 03:32 |
MikeJoel | Usually the most effected area with a fever is the head | 03:32 |
LjL | groan | 03:32 |
MikeJoel | :D | 03:32 |
LjL | %data US | 03:35 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In US, there are 233 cases, 12 deaths (5.2% of cases), 9 recoveries as of Fri Mar 6 03:30:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 03:35 |
MikeJoel | 12? I don't recall of hearing of another | 03:35 |
dunnp | so why do you need the oxygen? when you have trouble breathing? | 03:36 |
dunnp | MikeJoel: there was on on a cruise ship | 03:37 |
dunnp | in SF | 03:37 |
LjL | dunnp, when you have pneumonia with fibrosis due to a serious case of COVID-19 | 03:38 |
MikeJoel | dunnp: because if on has trouble breathing - they are given oxygen to make up for the smaller amount of air they can take in | 03:38 |
dunnp | what do they normally sell for LjL? $400 on amazon | 03:38 |
LjL | considering that patients like my dad have a 15% chance of dying from COVID, if they get it at all, then "a serious case" is pretty much a given | 03:38 |
MikeJoel | dunnp: The cruise ship death was the 1 in california (bring the total to 11) | 03:38 |
LjL | dunnp, the cheapest one was โฌ130, that sold out fast, then between โฌ250 and โฌ300, but now all over โฌ300, and more importantly not Prime, can't rely on that | 03:39 |
MikeJoel | caution should be used of course since breathing pure oxygen has risks. | 03:40 |
iz | don't smoke | 03:40 |
LjL | they do not supply pure oxygen | 03:40 |
LjL | iz, you mean "don't have smoked five years ago" | 03:40 |
LjL | because stopping smoking *now* isn't going to do a thing | 03:40 |
iz | well, i meant if you were breathing pure oxygen | 03:41 |
MikeJoel | LjL: actually studies show that stopping smoking at any point will show improvements within a week | 03:41 |
LjL | ah, well, that ought to be obvious, but breathing pure oxygen *is* dangerous in other ways too | 03:41 |
LjL | MikeJoel, "improvements" that make the prognosis on COVID-19 better? | 03:42 |
LjL | if anything you'll start coughing more mucus | 03:42 |
LjL | which may not be helpful at such a particular time | 03:42 |
iz | yeah, i think it's useful to think of the human body as like a standing wave pattern over rocks in a stream.. your cells keep replacing themselves and just your pattern persists | 03:42 |
contingo | I can make sense of it LjL | 03:43 |
contingo | as in i'm intellectually capable of digesting the literature on it and forming a view on the state of play at the moment | 03:45 |
contingo | it just keeps getting put off | 03:45 |
MikeJoel | LjL: within a week or so the blood increases its abillity to carry oxygen - which is good in whatever condition your in | 03:47 |
contingo | order-update@amazon.co.uk: Hello, We are pleased to report that the following item will dispatch sooner than expected: [lots of gels] | 03:48 |
LjL | well, at any rate, if i couldn't even convince my mom we should spend a moderate amount of money on buying this thing, i know one thing for sure, i'm not convincing my dad to quit smoking now | 03:48 |
pwr22 | <LjL "anyone know of any site that mak"> Something like https://camelcamelcamel.com/ ? | 03:48 |
LjL | pwr22, probably not... i do use that one a lot, but that track prices of items. what i need now is to find something that tells me whether a certain type of item becomes available again (on Prime) | 03:49 |
MikeJoel | I thought Prime already did that kind of thing? | 03:49 |
LjL | uh? | 03:50 |
LjL | like how | 03:50 |
MikeJoel | Isn't there like a wish list or something like that - I haven't been to amazon for a while | 03:51 |
LjL | there are lists... you can put existing items into them, you can't put items that aren't there, and they don't warn you of anything | 03:51 |
pwr22 | LjL: and on the angiotensin related stuff. What I've recently learnt from this is that even medical professionals struggle to correctly understand that system to the extent there are literally "wrong" papers published on it | 03:52 |
LjL | pwr22, well that seems to be pretty much what happened with some of the "rapid response" posts i've seen on the BMJ | 03:53 |
pwr22 | For instance people seem to confuse a lot ACE (an enzyme that converts angiotensin-1 to angiotensin-2) for the receptors that angiotensin-2 binds to | 03:53 |
MikeJoel | %data US | 03:54 |
Brainstorm | MikeJoel: In US, there are 233 cases, 12 deaths (5.2% of cases), 9 recoveries as of Fri Mar 6 03:30:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 03:54 |
pwr22 | ACE-2 is enzyme that converts angtiotensin-2 to angiotensin-1 | 03:54 |
pwr22 | I may be wrong in my understanding of this even - maybe contingo can correct me if so? | 03:54 |
MikeJoel | %data New York | 03:55 |
Brainstorm | MikeJoel: In World, there are 23 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 0 recoveries as of Fri Mar 6 03:33:03 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 03:55 |
MikeJoel | WOW! I curred it all! | 03:55 |
MikeJoel | I AM THE MAN! | 03:55 |
MikeJoel | %data NY | 03:55 |
Brainstorm | MikeJoel: In World, there are 23 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 0 recoveries as of Fri Mar 6 03:33:03 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 03:55 |
MikeJoel | whatever | 03:55 |
MikeJoel | %data Maine | 03:56 |
Brainstorm | MikeJoel: Sorry, Maine not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 03:56 |
contingo | are there full peer-reviewed studies that are confused at that level?? or just stuff in the urgent letters / quick response correspondence section of journals. I think more the latter | 03:56 |
pwr22 | Yeah the latter | 03:57 |
pwr22 | But they're getting cited a lot right now and articles being written up on them which have even more inaccuracies than the underlying articles | 03:58 |
contingo | I'm going to sleep but I will attempt authoritative mastery of viral ACE2 ACE1 binder receptor conversion enzyme blocker subdomain antagonist moieties tomorrow | 03:58 |
pwr22 | LjL: ACE inhibitors work by reducing the amount of angiotensin-1 converted to angiotensin-2 which means there's less angiotensin-2 which means less binding to it's receptor sites (the same ones used by corona viruses usually) which means less contraction of blood vessels and so lower blood pressure | 03:59 |
MikeJoel | Im thinking soon we will be seeing that use death to cases ration drop drastically. There is some talk that within a week 400,000 people will be tested. Likely a lot of people have had it and didn't even realize it. | 03:59 |
contingo | nitey nite | 03:59 |
pwr22 | So there's no mechanism there which should affect the virus | 03:59 |
contingo | well | 03:59 |
pwr22 | contingo: night | 03:59 |
contingo | wait a sec | 03:59 |
LjL | MikeJoel, i think that's a red herring, but we'll see | 03:59 |
pwr22 | ARBs are different though | 04:00 |
Hail_Satan | MikeJoel, I am pretty sure I've already had it. | 04:00 |
Hail_Satan | live in rural USA | 04:00 |
LjL | you been swabbed? | 04:00 |
pwr22 | Since they are competitive inhibitors of the angiotensin-2 receptors (I think) | 04:00 |
contingo | inhibitors and blockers can affect the various aspects of the illness therapeutically not just by interfering with viral binding | 04:00 |
contingo | anyway | 04:01 |
contingo | and so to bed | 04:01 |
Hail_Satan | LjL - there are no tests available for most of the USA | 04:01 |
LjL | night | 04:01 |
pwr22 | Yeah but inhibitors actually are associated with increased respiratory issues as a side effect | 04:01 |
Hail_Satan | and when I was actually sick, there was no such thing as a "test" | 04:01 |
LjL | Hail_Satan, then you aren't pretty sure you had it | 04:01 |
pwr22 | Which is when blockers are considered | 04:01 |
MikeJoel | My brother thinks he's had it. Like a cold but congestion - now he is over it but still getting the congestion out. | 04:01 |
Hail_Satan | LjL - yes I am, based on the experience of living in my body for about 50 years. | 04:01 |
LjL | this has symptoms mostly similar to a flu and other common diseases. it takes a test to have reasonable certainty | 04:01 |
LjL | Hail_Satan, oh, and you've had this virus before in those 50 years? | 04:02 |
pwr22 | Citation: I was moved from ACE inhibitors to ARBs after having persistent flu symptoms for many many months | 04:02 |
Hail_Satan | yeah I've had the flu dozens of times. Not once did I have arrhythmia or dyspnea. Not once. | 04:02 |
Hail_Satan | I had something similar... in 2004-5, when SARS was going around. | 04:02 |
LjL | arrhythmia, is that even a symptom of it? | 04:02 |
pwr22 | Ramipril -> candersarten | 04:02 |
Hail_Satan | Most people in our little town had 1 month long lung infections | 04:02 |
Hail_Satan | we locally referred to it as "the crud" | 04:02 |
LjL | CT scanned as lung infection? | 04:03 |
Hail_Satan | and I had permanent lung damage afterward. Ever since 2005, I can produce sputum from my lungs any time of the day or night. | 04:03 |
Hail_Satan | never before | 04:03 |
pwr22 | <contingo "inhibitors and blockers can affe"> I don't recall reading anything about that so far but happy to be pointed towards something | 04:03 |
MikeJoel | LjL: actually since most cases so far are people who were sick and so were tested (because they were down bad [again all appeared to have had "previous" health issues]) then it only makes sense that many more would have had it without ever being tested because they weren't bad enough to go to a doctor.... statistically is it pretty sure | 04:03 |
Hail_Satan | I was xrayed, because I asked for an xray | 04:03 |
LjL | well in that case i must have had it like... a year ago, since i just coughed up some sputum now, and this has been like that for months | 04:04 |
Hail_Satan | You might be aware that health care in the US is prohibitively expensive | 04:04 |
Hail_Satan | LjL - Have you ever been afraid to go to sleep, because your heart was beating erratically and you couldn't catch your breath? | 04:04 |
Hail_Satan | worried you'd die asleep? | 04:04 |
Hail_Satan | Never happened before I got sick in January. | 04:05 |
LjL | MikeJoel, sure, except the UK extended testing to anyone presenting with shortness of breath, even mild, regardless of ties with China, and they didn't find any big number of unexpected cases surfacing. also, the Veneto region in Italy swabbed about 7000 people last i checked, and just 250 were positive. such wide testing would reveal more cases if they were hidden | 04:05 |
Hail_Satan | and those were onset symptoms, major ones baed on correlation between mild and severe cases | 04:05 |
Hail_Satan | dyspnea and cardiac arrhythmia | 04:05 |
Hail_Satan | I'm not overweight and have "okay" cardio | 04:05 |
LjL | Hail_Satan, i have indeed, because i have been a hypochondriac before | 04:05 |
Hail_Satan | oh | 04:06 |
pwr22 | Me too but that was when I was a kid | 04:06 |
LjL | and i have enough anxiety that my heart does skip the odd beat | 04:06 |
Hail_Satan | well let me tell you, this was my first time | 04:06 |
Hail_Satan | and it had nothing to do with anxiety | 04:06 |
pwr22 | I had heart palpatations, panic attacks etc | 04:06 |
Hail_Satan | my friends and I had a great time. They left, and I got the crud | 04:06 |
pwr22 | I've had many ecgs though (for blood pressure) and things all seem fine | 04:06 |
Hail_Satan | LjL - I realize what I'm saying has no proof | 04:07 |
Hail_Satan | However, after telling all my friends this "conspiracy theory" | 04:07 |
Hail_Satan | one of them mentioned they had hosted a group from Beijing at their Uni 2 weeks prior to all of us getting sick. | 04:07 |
MikeJoel | many things that are accepted scientifically have very little evidence so... | 04:07 |
Hail_Satan | ยฏ\_(ใ)_/ยฏ | 04:07 |
Hail_Satan | She said "My husband told me not to tell you, but..." | 04:08 |
LjL | that was nice of him | 04:08 |
Hail_Satan | all 3 of us were pretty raw ill with new symptoms we had never gotten from flu or cold | 04:08 |
Hail_Satan | I lost hearing in one ear | 04:08 |
Hail_Satan | (temporarily) | 04:08 |
LjL | anyway, you should be able to get an antibody test and verify this. if not not (because testing is in early stages and they're probably at full capacity), maybe later. | 04:08 |
LjL | meanwhile keep in mind that there are many health issues that remain mysteries | 04:09 |
Hail_Satan | weird shit like that. He got some strange trigger for his own set of genetic illnesses that lay dormant. And she was practically drowning in sputum | 04:09 |
Hail_Satan | so, that's why I say: it's already been around the world. | 04:09 |
Hail_Satan | The first cases had no contact with the Wet Market. | 04:09 |
Hail_Satan | That right there means there probably were two original clades. | 04:09 |
LjL | Wet Market? | 04:10 |
pwr22 | There are a lot of respiratory illnesses out there that can be severe | 04:10 |
Hail_Satan | yeah, the Chinese market which was originally tagged as the source | 04:10 |
pwr22 | No reason to believe something was SARS-COV-2 over anything else | 04:10 |
Hail_Satan | Huanan or whatever | 04:10 |
Hail_Satan | pwr22 not a lot being triggered in communities | 04:10 |
LjL | sorry but are you listening to yourself? you are asserting things about virus clades based on... having had respiratory issues after someone probably met some people from Bejing | 04:11 |
Hail_Satan | I'm a 3-day flu guy, every time I get it, which is not every year. | 04:11 |
Hail_Satan | I'm telling you my opinion | 04:11 |
LjL | if scientists could do phylogeny of viruses based on this, they'd need no labs and RNA requencing | 04:11 |
Hail_Satan | based on my personal experience | 04:11 |
LjL | that's not an opinion, and it's not based on personal experience | 04:11 |
pwr22 | There are different strains of flu | 04:11 |
Hail_Satan | And I'm neither lying nor attempting to foment panic | 04:11 |
LjL | personal experience doesn't tell you how many clades of a virus there are | 04:11 |
MikeJoel | LjL: wet market is a type of country open food market in China.... something that no 1st world country would allow | 04:11 |
pwr22 | I don't think you're doing either but I don't think there's much factual to what you're saying | 04:12 |
LjL | MikeJoel, "wet" meaning what? | 04:12 |
Hail_Satan | No, facts do | 04:12 |
MikeJoel | live animals being offered as meat products | 04:12 |
pwr22 | IMO | 04:12 |
Hail_Satan | and that part is a fact | 04:12 |
pwr22 | Our brains are geared to look for patterns: but we are very bad at working out which patterns are good and which are bad | 04:12 |
Hail_Satan | The initial coronavirus patients from China had no known connection to the supposed source of the outbreak. THAT means there's at least two, or the wet market is a red herring designed to keep us away from scrutinizing China's wider behavior | 04:12 |
LjL | <Hail_Satan> Huanan or whatever โ do you mean Wuhan? | 04:12 |
MikeJoel | "wet" as in perishable | 04:13 |
Hail_Satan | ... LjL have you not heard? | 04:13 |
Hail_Satan | I'll get you some links. | 04:13 |
MikeJoel | as appossed to dry goods | 04:13 |
LjL | heard of WHAT | 04:13 |
LjL | Huanan is not a thing | 04:13 |
MikeJoel | snakes, fish, etc.,etc... | 04:13 |
pwr22 | That's why we have the empirical scientific method - which often disagrees with intuitive human thinking (though not always) | 04:13 |
LjL | my brain is also very bad at knowing when to stop a pointless debate, too | 04:14 |
MikeJoel | "scientific method" in theory - not in reality | 04:14 |
MikeJoel | ll | 04:14 |
LjL | or at least at actually doing it | 04:14 |
Hail_Satan | https://www.anorak.co.uk/460262/keyposts/28-animals-you-can-eat-at-chinas-wuhan-market.html | 04:14 |
Hail_Satan | https://news.yahoo.com/menu-china-virus-market-rats-live-wolf-pups-111650959.html | 04:15 |
Hail_Satan | This one has since been revised, read for headline only: https://nypost.com/2020/01/27/coronavirus-origin-traced-to-animal-market-in-wuhan-tests-confirm/ | 04:15 |
MikeJoel | as I said - not something your going to legally find in the UK or US etc. | 04:15 |
Hail_Satan | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-20/china-s-food-markets-can-be-breeding-grounds-for-deadly-viruses | 04:15 |
LjL | okay, so that tells us... the virus came from animals | 04:15 |
LjL | we knew that already, for like two months, though, right? | 04:16 |
LjL | we also know it's probably got a reservoir in bats | 04:16 |
LjL | point being? | 04:16 |
Hail_Satan | https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/wuhan-seafood-market-may-not-be-source-novel-virus-spreading-globally | 04:16 |
MikeJoel | LjL: you asked what a wet market was | 04:16 |
LjL | i simply didn't know the term | 04:17 |
Hail_Satan | LjL - the point being, it was spreading before anyone was blaming "the wet market" | 04:17 |
LjL | i'm aware of the live animal trade at Wuhan's seafood market | 04:17 |
Hail_Satan | The name of that market was Huanan | 04:17 |
LjL | Hail_Satan, and your evidence is that you "had" it before the market thing happened? | 04:17 |
pwr22 | <Hail_Satan "LjL - the point being, it was sp"> So far I've not seen any good evidence of that | 04:17 |
Hail_Satan | LjL no, I had it after it was identified as a novel coronavirus | 04:18 |
Hail_Satan | but before any US cases | 04:18 |
pwr22 | Based on evidence I've seen published so far, it looks like this strain began spreading in December | 04:18 |
MikeJoel | I'll take two bats (with ebola), one snake (with covid-19).... maybe a couple of eels (with who knows what) | 04:18 |
LjL | Hail_Satan, are you in the US? did you have the virus? | 04:18 |
Hail_Satan | Remember, the US wasn't testing anyone, and still isn't, unless they like show up at a major hospital | 04:18 |
Hail_Satan | Yes, and maybe. | 04:18 |
LjL | so there were US cases, just untested ones, under your theory. how does that disprove its origin at that market? | 04:18 |
Hail_Satan | I was ill for about 2 weeks | 04:18 |
dunnp | Hail_Satan: in rural US? | 04:18 |
Hail_Satan | yes, dunnp | 04:18 |
dunnp | how would it get there | 04:19 |
Hail_Satan | Like I said, from my friend's Beijing group she hosted. | 04:19 |
Hail_Satan | about 90% of the people at the banquet she attended had flown over from China. | 04:19 |
dunnp | what part of US? | 04:19 |
Hail_Satan | NC | 04:19 |
MikeJoel | the dry part | 04:19 |
pwr22 | Or you got a strain of flu from a different country that you didn't have good immunity too so it hit you harder which compounds with your lung damage | 04:20 |
Hail_Satan | Which flu conveys the symptoms I described? | 04:20 |
almost | CORONAVIRUS: Anti-viral herbs and minerals bitchute.com/video/USgD10ImDeOq/ | 04:20 |
almost | mike adams | 04:20 |
MikeJoel | viruses can effect the heart | 04:20 |
dunnp | they are testing in NC now.. | 04:20 |
dunnp | just a case in raleigh | 04:20 |
Hail_Satan | dyspnea is like the #1 symptom for most assessments from mild-->intensive care patients | 04:20 |
LjL | almost, pseudoscience not particularly welcome | 04:21 |
Hail_Satan | I can source that | 04:21 |
pwr22 | LjL: want me to delete on the matrix side? | 04:21 |
Hail_Satan | it was a TWiV link | 04:21 |
LjL | pwr22, doesn't even really cross my mind due to being used to irc, but sure | 04:21 |
LjL | but i am on matrix too, i can do it | 04:22 |
pwr22 | K | 04:22 |
LjL | ... if i find the riot.im tab | 04:22 |
pwr22 | Hail_Satan: when abouts was your illness? | 04:22 |
pwr22 | And anyhow, you are free to believe whatever you want ๐ | 04:22 |
LjL | pwr22, also do whatever you see fit, i don't want to run this channel in a very hierarchical way although i may end up doing it anyway, since i am a bit too deep into the issue (but who isn't, or won't be shortly, i guess?) to guarantee i can act rationally | 04:23 |
Hail_Satan | pwr22 mid to late January, with lots of lung sputum surprises into 2nd week of Feb. | 04:24 |
Hail_Satan | I'd be lecturing, and suddenly hack up a golf ball lougie. That NEVER happens | 04:24 |
pwr22 | I don't think COVID-19 usually includes a productive cough? | 04:24 |
MikeJoel | There are only two options - 1) There are a lot of cases going undetected and so the 3.5% is not a real number -or- 2) Americans are so healthy that (like chickens) they only go down if they are so sick they are near death.... take my word #2 is not going to be true :D | 04:24 |
Hail_Satan | I'll find that sympomatic analysis | 04:24 |
pwr22 | But I could believe you could contract something outside China at that time, just don't think it would be super likely but maybe I'm wrong? | 04:25 |
Hail_Satan | meanwhile, this is a great link, and I especially recommend it for LjL. Scroll down far enough and SCMP talks about the wet market. | 04:25 |
Hail_Satan | https://multimedia.scmp.com/infographics/news/china/article/3047038/wuhan-virus/index.html | 04:25 |
LjL | if anything i'd say a *dry* cough is the only real hallmark symptom of COVID-19 that i've seen... i mean, there's also fever and other concerning things like shortness of breath, but they're all things that a number of illnesses could bring. so is dry cough, really, but at least you can distinguish it from productive cough | 04:25 |
Hail_Satan | pwr2, the subtext of my theory is "I think my whole town got SARS back then too, it's just that nobody tests for it" | 04:25 |
LjL | Hail_Satan, i am well aware of that link since it's one of the links that the paste in the channel's topic mentions as important ;) | 04:26 |
MikeJoel | dry cough also can link to many things.... | 04:26 |
Hail_Satan | BTW: Extreme yikes at the photo of the wetmarket operations | 04:26 |
LjL | MikeJoel, yes, i'm certainly not saying that if you have a dry cough then you have COVID, that would be ridiculous. just that if you have a *productive* cough, then it's kind of less likely to be COVID | 04:26 |
Hail_Satan | ctrl-F "Trussed live chicken" | 04:26 |
MikeJoel | You know - the reality is that cold symptoms are easily connected to many other problems | 04:26 |
Hail_Satan | See Table 1: https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2930183-5 | 04:28 |
MikeJoel | like so many things - you can have all the symptoms and be suffering something completely different. If your worried get tested - of course there is a % of false positives as well | 04:28 |
almost | Dehydrtation causes most illness to start | 04:28 |
Hail_Satan | there's a non pdf version of the above link, if needed: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext | 04:28 |
LjL | almost, no, pathogens or haywire cells in your body cause most illness to start | 04:29 |
LjL | almost, i would appreciate if you didn't spout random pseudoscience that's not even related to the conversation that's going on | 04:29 |
MikeJoel | US is up to about 18,000 deaths from the flu so far in 2020 so - so far the flu is much more a thing to worry over right now | 04:29 |
Hail_Satan | low hydration may contribute to susceptibility to some illnesses. | 04:29 |
pwr22 | <almost "Dehydrtation causes most illness"> Hydration is certainly most important but it won't be causative directly | 04:29 |
LjL | MikeJoel, "so far", maybe, but luckily we can also look at trends, exponential trends in particular | 04:29 |
Hail_Satan | MikeJoel, definitely. Unless the US decides it wants to try China's containment methods. | 04:30 |
Hail_Satan | pwr22 I like your style :) | 04:30 |
MikeJoel | LjL: not really. To compare the US to china, korea, iran, or even italy (sorry) isn't a very equal comparison. | 04:31 |
LjL | ... | 04:31 |
pwr22 | If it's already spreading everywhere I guess closing off cities isn't really gonna help? | 04:31 |
LjL | do elaborate | 04:31 |
LjL | is this American exceptionalism at work or is there a less hideous explanation to your statement | 04:32 |
MikeJoel | well for 1 - US health system is way ahead (an opinion) of china, iran, and most of the others. 2) US has a lot more "room" meaning while the cities are packed we do have a lot of country - meaning people aren't so tight together. 3) summer is about to hit and viruses like corona tend not to spread easily in summer | 04:33 |
LjL | 1) the US health system is a joke in many respects, and Korea and Italy have top-notch healthcare systems according to most official statistics 2) true enough 3) there is absolutely no evidence of that being true of this virus, whereas for instance the MERS coronavirus gets worse in the summer | 04:34 |
LjL | China also has plenty of "free space" despite having clusters of huge cities... not unlike the US in your point 2) | 04:35 |
MikeJoel | LjL: If #1 is a joke then why do people try to get into America for medical proceedures from those "great" health care countries? | 04:35 |
LjL | in the US, in addition, the most crowded parts of cities are the actual city centers where more vulnerable (poorer, etc) people tend to live, unlike for instance Europe | 04:36 |
MikeJoel | LjL: Uh? I think the climate is a bit different... | 04:36 |
MikeJoel | LjL: how many times have you been to the US? | 04:36 |
LjL | how many times have you been to Korea and Italy and China? | 04:36 |
LjL | you don't seem to know the difference between "an opinion" that's basically a hunch and something you can actually base an argument on | 04:38 |
MikeJoel | What I said didn't require my personal travel to their countries - the fact is that people in China try to come to the US for medical proceedures. your descriptions of America and its cities seems to be hyped up anti-american news stories :D | 04:38 |
LjL | so i think i'll go to bed and force myself to get out of this rather embarrassing conversation | 04:38 |
LjL | where the ones who ought to be embarrassed isn't me | 04:38 |
LjL | MikeJoel, so why did what *i* say require me going to the US? | 04:38 |
LjL | you are sounding like the very worst kind of American exceptionalist | 04:38 |
LjL | shame on you and your stupid arrogance | 04:38 |
LjL | the end | 04:39 |
MikeJoel | LjL: you described US cities which isn't reality | 04:39 |
MikeJoel | there are poor areas but what you described does not apply to every city and also not going to be the city center | 04:39 |
spybert | MikeJoel: If you are wealthy then the best health care is available in the US. If you are a citizen with the median income level, then it is not so good | 04:39 |
MikeJoel | LjL: LOL! | 04:39 |
MikeJoel | LjL: You realize you just lost your own argument | 04:40 |
LjL | no, really, no | 04:40 |
spybert | LjL: Don't rgue with Trump supporters, it is hopeless :-) | 04:40 |
MikeJoel | LOL | 04:40 |
LjL | yeah, you're right | 04:40 |
LjL | let's make this simpler | 04:40 |
LjL | MikeJoel, are you a Trump supporter? | 04:40 |
tinwhiskers | well, that's just embarrassing | 04:41 |
MikeJoel | Arrogance and Ignorance are two symptoms that can be treated - unless the exist at the same time... then there is no treatment. | 04:41 |
tinwhiskers | indeed | 04:41 |
MikeJoel | I don't know I would describe myself as a Trump supporter - I would rather see him in office than the options available on the market | 04:42 |
tinwhiskers | heh | 04:42 |
Hail_Satan | Yeah, I'm going to safely disregard your opinion. | 04:42 |
LjL | MikeJoel, you may find yourself in better company in a different channel | 04:42 |
LjL | i was this close to banning you, but then yes, then you would have won | 04:42 |
LjL | instead you're just a moron | 04:42 |
LjL | goodnight | 04:42 |
spybert | LjL: He probably doesn't like Trump people saying that Trump didn't do a good job in handling the epidemic | 04:43 |
fructose | MikeJoel: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-fire-pandemic-team/ | 04:44 |
MikeJoel | SNOPES !! LOL | 04:44 |
MikeJoel | Oh no! I heard all about that - like usual a bunch of unrelated and slanted items strung together to present a biased opinion to be consumed by those in the market for it | 04:45 |
Hail_Satan | MikeJoel, please, you don't have to do this | 04:46 |
Hail_Satan | It seems like we're all adults here. | 04:46 |
almost | snopes ??? a couple and their dog and a previous cocaine conviction telling peeps whats true BAWAWAWA | 04:46 |
Hail_Satan | only you can prevent the spread of ipv6 | 04:46 |
fructose | Try reading | 04:46 |
pwr22 | MikeJoeland LjL no need for things to get so heated - lets just agree to disagree on this and move on please? | 04:46 |
pwr22 | <Hail_Satan "only you can prevent the spread "> I've been infected for years | 04:47 |
MikeJoel | pwr22: maybe you should re-examine the conversation.... the "hateful" "trump supporter" didn't call anyone a name or slander anyone... it was the "open minded" "scientific thinking" individuals that did | 04:48 |
Hail_Satan | you said "your descriptions of America and its cities seems to be hyped up anti-american news stories :D" | 04:49 |
MikeJoel | so? | 04:49 |
Hail_Satan | and claimed that US was the destination for the rest of the world for procedures | 04:49 |
MikeJoel | his description was | 04:49 |
pwr22 | Sure but you did engage in a heated argument which is what I'm talking about dropping ๐ | 04:49 |
MikeJoel | No I didn't. I stated the fact that many people in China and many other countries seek to come to the US for medical treatments | 04:49 |
LjL | nevermind the snide remark "or even Italy (sorry)" that was about as patronising as anything could possibly be... but sure, it isn't a direct insult so it's fine in your mind | 04:50 |
pwr22 | Now you're trying to get into an argument with me - I'm not interested | 04:50 |
fructose | pwr22: There's no reason to stop pointing out bullshit | 04:50 |
MikeJoel | huh? So your saying europeans do not seek to come to the US for fast medical treatment? | 04:50 |
Hail_Satan | The top 10 countries most visited by medical tourists for their accredited hospitals, quality and affordable healthcare are: Thailand, India, Brazil, Malaysia, Turkey, Mexico, Costa Rica, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore | 04:51 |
LjL | i'm sure some do. i'm sure also some americans do the opposite | 04:51 |
fructose | MikeJoel: Stop bullshitting please. | 04:51 |
Hail_Satan | https://wotmed.com/blog-10-best-countries-for-medical-tourism/ | 04:51 |
pwr22 | %data uk | 04:51 |
Brainstorm | pwr22: In UK, there are 116 cases, 1 deaths (0.9% of cases), 18 recoveries as of Fri Mar 6 04:45:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=UK for time series data. | 04:51 |
Brainstorm | pwr22: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.3% (assuming deaths/cases with โ of cases undetected), and less than 5.0% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 04:51 |
tinwhiskers | The US is not a popular destination for medical tourism | 04:51 |
pwr22 | %data us | 04:51 |
Brainstorm | pwr22: In US, there are 233 cases, 13 deaths (5.6% of cases), 9 recoveries as of Fri Mar 6 04:45:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 04:51 |
tinwhiskers | While it's true there is a lot of good, cutting-edge research coming out of the states, the medical system is a shambles. | 04:52 |
Hail_Satan | "Despite the high price of treatment, between 600,000 and 800,000 foreign patients opted for U.S.-based treatment last year, according to Patients Beyond Borders. " | 04:52 |
Hail_Satan | That's not many | 04:52 |
MikeJoel | The US only has like what 1000x more people than the UK? And like the same amount of international travel? | 04:52 |
tinwhiskers | ?? | 04:52 |
Hail_Satan | Why does this feel like jousting at windmills | 04:52 |
Hail_Satan | is it a chatbot | 04:52 |
Hail_Satan | Russia, if you're listening | 04:52 |
LjL | 1000x... what even | 04:52 |
LjL | enough | 04:53 |
pwr22 | Hail_Satan: never heard that turn before ๐ | 04:53 |
pwr22 | MikeJoel: like 6x the people | 04:53 |
Hail_Satan | I am approving of LjL's moderatin | 04:53 |
pwr22 | Well we've been a bit off topic in this room ๐คฃ | 04:54 |
tinwhiskers | Honey, I'm going to be late to bed. Someone on the internet is wrong! | 04:55 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, same here | 04:55 |
LjL | riling people up with nonsense is neither fun nor something i want to tolerate | 04:55 |
pwr22 | Yeah feels like one of those | 04:55 |
tinwhiskers | dude, in your case it's true. go to bed! | 04:55 |
pwr22 | I used to be a lot like that myself back when I was much younger โน๏ธ | 04:56 |
LjL | oh it's only 5am and i could have been sleeping one hour ago at least if | 04:56 |
LjL | you know | 04:56 |
LjL | keJoel> Why is it when a leftist can't win an argument they kick you out of a room or mute you? Must be the fascism in them. Have your fun. | 04:57 |
LjL | if this isn't an indication that i made the right choice i don't know what is | 04:57 |
LjL | when did i even state i was a "leftist", only he knows | 04:57 |
LjL | maybe that applies to anyone who doesn't worship the US as the best place on earth | 04:58 |
Hail_Satan | man, he's really mad online | 04:58 |
Hail_Satan | I thought he could act like an adult, but no | 04:58 |
pwr22 | It's 4am here, I've already been to sleep and got up again though so I'm good | 04:58 |
Hail_Satan | I'm catching the /msgs | 04:58 |
pwr22 | He's IMing me | 04:58 |
Hail_Satan | go to BED, LjL! | 04:58 |
LjL | okay | 04:59 |
LjL | chances are they don't know they do, but yes | 04:59 |
pwr22 | I can probably do things (at least on the matrix side) | 05:01 |
pwr22 | Not sure if I show as having ops on the IRC side | 05:02 |
tinwhiskers | I was wondering what happens if someone is quieted on the irc side but not matrix, or do those modes make it through the gateway somehow too? | 05:02 |
pwr22 | Well matrix doesn't have the same concept of voice so I didn't see anything change from my perspective but as they are an IRC user I'm not seeing any of their messages | 05:05 |
pwr22 | I didn't see any kick message either, I did see the user leave and join the room immediately though | 05:05 |
Brainstorm | ๐ธ Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 53757) ๐ธ World: +1 recoveries (now 55477) | 05:05 |
pwr22 | woo | 05:06 |
tinwhiskers | they were quieted at this end and I guess they thought leaving and rejoining would help somehow. | 05:06 |
pwr22 | On the matrix side, there are very granular permissions you can set. Every user has a power level and you can set various powers at various levels | 05:09 |
pwr22 | So you have a sort of tiered approach | 05:09 |
tinwhiskers | ok | 05:10 |
Hail_Satan | Attenuation of replication by a 29 nucleotide deletion in SARS-coronavirus acquired during the early stages of human-to-human transmission: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-33487-8 | 05:15 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit Italy live at 04:12 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: 6 Marzo โ https://is.gd/lCDWBr | 05:15 |
Brainstorm | ๐ธ Mainland China: +2 recoveries (now 53759) ๐ธ Philippines: +2 cases (now 5) ๐ธ World: +2 cases (now 98464), +2 recoveries (now 55479) | 05:20 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test) at 04:18 UTC: CoronaVirus_ITALIA: Servizio Piazzapulita dentro il reparto di terapia intensiva dell Asst di Cremona โ https://is.gd/P1sZ9P | 05:31 |
Brainstorm | ๐ธ New South Wales, Australia: +1 cases (now 26) ๐ธ South Australia, Australia: +2 cases (now 7) ๐ธ Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 53760) ๐ธ World: +1 recoveries (now 55480) | 05:35 |
Brainstorm | ๐ธ British Columbia, Canada: +8 cases (now 21) ๐ธ Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 53761) ๐ธ World: +1 cases (now 98465), +1 recoveries (now 55481) | 05:50 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit WorldNews Live at 05:02 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: JHU reports 29 new cases in Switzerland, total 119 confirmed cases โ https://is.gd/HItQSs | 06:04 |
Brainstorm | ๐ธ New South Wales, Australia: +1 cases (now 26) | 06:05 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit Italy live at 05:07 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Coronavirus e Xenophobia, Un analisi (Articolo in Inglese) โ https://is.gd/670GQ7 | 06:20 |
Brainstorm | ๐ธ Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 53762) ๐ธ World: +1 recoveries (now 55482) | 06:20 |
Hail_Satan | MikeJohn / MMJ99 is a chatbot. | 06:26 |
Hail_Satan | * MikeJoel | 06:26 |
pwr22 | What makes you think that? | 06:27 |
Hail_Satan | it failed several yes/no's | 06:33 |
Hail_Satan | it turned into a whiny Karen bot | 06:34 |
Hail_Satan | https://i.redd.it/t3u918d6vkf41.jpg | 06:34 |
Brainstorm | ๐ธ Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 53763) ๐ธ World: +1 recoveries (now 55483) | 06:35 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit Italy live at 05:27 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Coronavirus : problemi nella capienza del sistema sanitario, rischi di collasso. โ https://is.gd/gM3laS | 06:36 |
pwr22 | Well I'm pretty sure they pass my turing test ๐คทโโ๏ธ | 06:39 |
twomoon | hi tinwhiskers why do u think the medical system in the US is in shambles? | 06:40 |
greyman | %data turkey | 06:42 |
Brainstorm | greyman: Sorry, turkey not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 06:42 |
fructose | https://www.13newsnow.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/why-we-should-be-more-concerned-about-the-flu-than-coronavirus/291-d5cfaf75-8cc0-400f-8c62-c0a484be7162 | 06:48 |
fructose | In case anyone wants to see the virulence of that bullshit | 06:48 |
Brainstorm | ๐ธ Canada: +2 cases (now 48) ๐ธ Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 53764) ๐ธ World: +2 cases (now 98467), +1 recoveries (now 55484) | 06:50 |
Brainstorm | ๐ธ Mainland China: +3 cases (now 80555) ๐ธ Guangdong, Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 1210) ๐ธ Hunan, Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 952) ๐ธ Shanghai, Mainland China: +3 cases (now 342) ๐ธ Sichuan, Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 429) ๐ธ Xinjiang, Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 71) ๐ธ World: +3 cases (now 98470) | 07:05 |
fructose | There's hope for Iceland. They've already confirmed more cases than India. | 07:10 |
Brainstorm | ๐ธ US: +1 deaths (now 14) ๐ธ World: +1 deaths (now 3387) | 07:20 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit Italy live at 06:10 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Invito chi puรฒ aiutare di considerare/continuare a donare sangue solo se si รจ in condizioni sani (Irrelevante se รจ il coronavirus o altre malattie). Il sangue รจ sempre una neccessitร per molti pazienti che hanno bisogno di terapie trasfusionali. โ https://is.gd/retv3u | 07:25 |
Brainstorm | ๐ถ Mainland China: +16 recoveries (now 53780) ๐ธ Henan, Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 1242) ๐ถ Shandong, Mainland China: +15 recoveries (now 617) ๐ธ Zhejiang, Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 1142) ๐ถ World: +16 recoveries (now 55500) | 08:20 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit Italy live at 07:28 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: In Francia: * Il numero totale dei casi sale a 423 โ https://is.gd/dAeyae | 08:30 |
Brainstorm | ๐ธ Mainland China: +2 recoveries (now 53782) ๐ธ World: +2 recoveries (now 55502) | 08:35 |
Brainstorm | ๐ธ Norway: +1 cases (now 92) ๐ธ World: +1 cases (now 98471) | 08:51 |
BubuIIC1 | %data Germany | 08:58 |
Brainstorm | BubuIIC1: In Germany, there are 545 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 17 recoveries as of Fri Mar 6 08:35:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data. | 08:58 |
Brainstorm | ๐ธ Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 53783) ๐ธ Hunan, Mainland China: +2 recoveries (now 954) ๐ธ Sichuan, Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 430) ๐ธ Norway: +3 cases (now 95) ๐ธ World: +3 cases (now 98474), +1 recoveries (now 55503) | 09:06 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit Italy live at 08:20 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Gli sintomi del coronavirus : Il primo paziente inglese racconta la sua esperienza con COVID-19 โ https://is.gd/yAjhOz | 09:35 |
Brainstorm | ๐ธ Croatia: +1 cases (now 11) ๐ธ Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 53784) ๐ถ South Korea: +309 cases (now 6593) ๐ธ Switzerland: +1 cases (now 121) ๐ธ Thailand: +1 cases (now 48) ๐ถ World: +312 cases (now 98786), +1 recoveries (now 55504) | 09:36 |
Albright | %title https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3065187/coronavirus-south-koreas-aggressive-testing-gives | 09:46 |
Brainstorm | Albright: Couldn't load page from www.scmp.com (416: Requested Range Not Satisfiable). | 09:46 |
Albright | "Coronavirus: South Koreaโs aggressive testing gives clues to true fatality rate" | 09:46 |
Albright | SCMP is based in Hong Kong and therefore slightly more trustworthy than mainland China news sources. | 09:46 |
Albright | So the RoK is reporting a fatality rate of only 0.65%. | 09:50 |
Brainstorm | ๐ธ Norway: +1 cases (now 96) ๐ธ World: +1 cases (now 98787) | 09:51 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit Italy live at 08:36 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Le borse in forte ribasso per le incertezze economiche causate dal COVID-19 โ https://is.gd/x2Lqsv | 09:51 |
Albright | I think RoK has a demographically younger population than Japan and China, which might be skewing the numbers. Certainly one of the reasons the death rate is proportionally high in the US was the breakout at a senior care home. | 09:51 |
phil | also testing is incredibly prevalent | 10:05 |
Brainstorm | ๐ธ Mainland China: +1 cases (now 80556), +1 recoveries (now 53785) ๐ธ South Korea: +2 deaths (now 42) ๐ธ World: +1 cases (now 98788), +2 deaths (now 3389), +1 recoveries (now 55505) | 10:06 |
animistic1 | %data Finland | 10:10 |
Brainstorm | animistic1: In Finland, there are 12 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 1 recoveries as of Thu Mar 5 14:53:03 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Finland for time series data. | 10:10 |
Brainstorm | ๐ธ Germany: +10 cases (now 555) ๐ธ Mainland China: +2 cases (now 80558) ๐ถ World: +12 cases (now 98800) | 10:21 |
Brainstorm | ๐ธ Finland: +3 cases (now 15) ๐ธ India: +1 cases (now 31) ๐ธ Mainland China: +1 cases (now 80559), +2 recoveries (now 53787) ๐ธ Pakistan: +1 cases (now 6) ๐ธ World: +6 cases (now 98806), +2 recoveries (now 55507) | 10:36 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test) at 08:47 UTC: Advice for UK university students: Closures, exams, etc.: I'm a lecturer/researcher at a large UK university. I've noticed that a lot of uni students have questions and concerns about university closures, exams, etc. Also, I've been shocked by how badly some universities have communicated with their staff and [... want %more?] โ https://is.gd/I27Lz5 | 10:39 |
mefistofeles | %more | 10:42 |
Brainstorm | mefistofeles, [...] students. Here, I'll share what I know from the staff side of things (though things at your uni may differ) - I don't think hiding information from students is helpful. โ Internal Server Error | 10:42 |
mefistofeles | lol | 10:42 |
mefistofeles | yeah, it makes sense using Korea's data to estimate a better death rate, tbh | 10:44 |
mefistofeles | and this is expected, to be lower than previously reported, since we all knew there were many undiagnosed cases... going back to that discussion we had a couple of days before | 10:44 |
Brainstorm | ๐ถ Mainland China: +29 recoveries (now 53816) ๐ธ Norway: +1 deaths (now 1) ๐ถ World: +1 deaths (now 3390), +29 recoveries (now 55536) | 10:51 |
Albright | mefistofeles: Are you saying more diagnoses mean that there will be more "non-deaths" since less severe cases with recovery might be going undiagnosed in China or other countries? I guess that makes sense. | 10:52 |
mefistofeles | Albright: yes | 10:53 |
mefistofeles | that's also basically why the death rate is expected to be lower once more is known, from the WHO | 10:53 |
mefistofeles | it will have peaks when it enters new regions/countries, of course | 10:55 |
mefistofeles | but taking a single new region/country data is wrong | 10:55 |
Brainstorm | ๐ธ Iraq: +4 cases (now 40) ๐ถ Mainland China: +111 recoveries (now 53927) ๐ธ Guangdong, Mainland China: +1 cases (now 1352) ๐ธ Norway: +4 cases (now 100) ๐ธ Switzerland: +1 cases (now 122) ๐ถ World: +9 cases (now 98815), +111 recoveries (now 55647) | 11:06 |
Brainstorm | ๐ธ Austria: +4 cases (now 47) ๐ถ Japan: +17 cases (now 381) ๐ธ Mainland China: +2 recoveries (now 53929) ๐ธ Netherlands: +1 deaths (now 1) ๐ธ Norway: +1 cases (now 101), +1 recoveries (now 1) ๐ถ Spain: +47 cases (now 329) ๐ถ World: +69 cases (now 98884), +3 recoveries (now 55650) | 11:21 |
mefistofeles | LjL: do we really need the bot to update that frequently? or what's the idea behind that? | 11:22 |
Brainstorm | ๐ธ Indonesia: +2 cases (now 4) ๐ธ Macau, Macau: +1 recoveries (now 10) ๐ธ Fujian, Mainland China: +2 recoveries (now 280) ๐ธ Guangdong, Mainland China: +2 recoveries (now 1212) ๐ธ Henan, Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 1243) ๐ธ Jiangsu, Mainland China: +6 recoveries (now 594) ๐ธ Jilin, Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 90) ๐ธ Shaanxi, Mainland China: +2 recoveries (now 226) ๐ธ Sichuan, Mainland China: +5 recoverie | 11:36 |
mefistofeles | %data Chile | 11:40 |
Brainstorm | mefistofeles: In Chile, there are 4 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 0 recoveries as of Thu Mar 5 19:13:04 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Chile for time series data. | 11:40 |
Brainstorm | ๐ธ Estonia: +5 cases (now 10) ๐ธ Romania: +1 cases (now 7), +2 recoveries (now 3) ๐ธ Switzerland: +10 cases (now 132) ๐ถ World: +16 cases (now 98909), +2 recoveries (now 55653) | 11:51 |
Brainstorm | ๐ถ Germany: +22 cases (now 577) ๐ธ Iceland: +2 cases (now 37) ๐ถ Iran: +1234 cases (now 4747), +16 deaths (now 124) ๐ธ Chongqing, Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 513) ๐ธ Fujian, Mainland China: +2 recoveries (now 282) ๐ธ Heilongjiang, Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 381) ๐ถ Hubei, Mainland China: +22 recoveries (now 41988) ๐ธ Hunan, Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 955) ๐ธ Shandong, Mainland China: +1 | 12:06 |
Albright | %title https://www.macrumors.com/2020/03/05/apple-cracking-down-coronavirus-apps/ | 12:12 |
Brainstorm | Albright: From www.macrumors.com: Apple Rejecting Coronavirus Apps Not From Health or Government Organizations - MacRumors | 12:12 |
mefistofeles | Albright: makes sense, right? | 12:21 |
Albright | mefistofeles: I have a problem with Apple deciding what news sources I should trust. But the web browser still works. For now. | 12:21 |
mefistofeles | Albright: well, yes, but that's another issue. I agree, though | 12:28 |
fructose | https://twitter.com/sanchak74/status/1233425417719042048 | 12:30 |
mefistofeles | fructose: hmm, interesting | 12:31 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit Italy live at 11:29 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Primo caso nel Vaticano โ https://is.gd/mvObAH | 12:33 |
Brainstorm | ๐ถ Belgium: +59 cases (now 109) ๐ธ Hong Kong, Hong Kong: +1 cases (now 106) ๐ธ Norway: +4 cases (now 105) ๐ถ Spain: +16 cases (now 345), +2 deaths (now 5) ๐ถ World: +80 cases (now 100275), +2 deaths (now 3408) | 12:36 |
Brainstorm | ๐ถ Iran: +174 recoveries (now 913) ๐ถ World: +174 recoveries (now 55827) | 12:51 |
RougeRR | im beginning to lose patience with my mother/father | 13:10 |
Brainstorm | ๐ถ Egypt: +12 cases (now 15) ๐ธ Norway: +1 cases (now 106) ๐ธ Romania: +1 cases (now 8), +2 recoveries (now 5) ๐ถ Spain: +15 cases (now 360) ๐ถ World: +29 cases (now 100304), +2 recoveries (now 55829) | 13:21 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test) at 12:19 UTC: CoronavirusGLOBAL: It's possible to donate computing power to COVID19 research by allowing researchers to use your computer to run protein folding simulations. โ https://is.gd/ivs8O5 | 13:22 |
mefistofeles | %data india | 13:35 |
Brainstorm | ๐ถ Greece: +14 cases (now 45) ๐ธ Switzerland: +6 cases (now 138) ๐ถ World: +20 cases (now 100324) | 13:35 |
Brainstorm | mefistofeles: In India, there are 31 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 3 recoveries as of Fri Mar 6 13:24:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=India for time series data. | 13:35 |
mefistofeles | going back to https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/03/science.abb2762.full | 13:42 |
mefistofeles | it's amazing (almost unbelievable) they could have the protein structure with CryoEM that fast!! | 13:42 |
python476 | hoi back | 13:42 |
python476 | 100k figure reached on plague.com JHU | 13:42 |
mefistofeles | python476: yeah, pretty much that's the case, nothing really special about it, fwiw | 13:43 |
python476 | mefistofeles: hey, leave my primate cerebellum be will ya | 13:44 |
python476 | mefistofeles: what do you think about the management of this outbreak ? | 13:48 |
python476 | to me, even with the big amount of fog, I feel it's been nicely coordinated and monitored | 13:48 |
python476 | not perfect but nothing is | 13:48 |
mefistofeles | python476: yeah, I think a good job has been done overall | 13:49 |
chuckd[m] | It depends on the country | 13:49 |
python476 | chuckd[m]: meaning iran and the likes ? | 13:49 |
mefistofeles | I mean, not even in China is that significant, compared to the total amount of population there, which s truly amazing | 13:49 |
python476 | if stats are to be believed they tamed the beast quite rapidly | 13:49 |
chuckd[m] | In the US they're not taking many tests and therefore the confirmed cases are way lower than in reality | 13:50 |
python476 | chuckd[m]: yeah good point, US could have picked a better strategy | 13:50 |
mefistofeles | I think China will probably become the one with better containment/mitigation in the long run, per capita | 13:50 |
python476 | hopefully the US gov will get a little Iranian gov future ... | 13:50 |
chuckd[m] | <mefistofeles "I think China will probably beco"> Totally agree | 13:50 |
Brainstorm | ๐ธ Denmark: +3 cases (now 23) ๐ธ Henan, Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 1244) ๐ถ Singapore: +13 cases (now 130) ๐ธ Taiwan, Taiwan: +1 cases (now 45) ๐ถ World: +19 cases (now 100343) | 13:51 |
mefistofeles | yeah, the thing is that US cannot afford as much testing as Korea can, or similar | 13:51 |
mefistofeles | same for Italy and Iran even more | 13:51 |
mefistofeles | Korea is becoming the nicest lab region to get better stats, actually | 13:52 |
mefistofeles | there was some news about this already | 13:52 |
python476 | US doesn't manufacture tests ? | 13:52 |
python476 | I'm surprised. Naively I'd think they're loaded with cash and can buy out a pharma company stock in 48H | 13:53 |
mefistofeles | US heath care system is pretty much fucked up, and Trump is blaming it on Obama's administration (shocking!!) | 13:54 |
mefistofeles | hehe | 13:54 |
mefistofeles | health* | 13:54 |
mefistofeles | https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/03/04/get-real this one kinda sums it up pretty well for the US situation | 13:55 |
python476 | I'm fantasizing of a group of rogue rebels infecting themselves with covid and getting hired as security officers to infect the POTUS | 13:56 |
mefistofeles | lol | 13:57 |
python476 | ncovfefe | 13:57 |
Brainstorm | ๐ธ Brazil: +1 cases (now 9) ๐ธ Beijing, Mainland China: +1 recoveries (now 299) ๐ธ Fujian, Mainland China: +2 recoveries (now 284) ๐ธ Guangdong, Mainland China: +4 recoveries (now 1216) ๐ธ Heilongjiang, Mainland China: +2 recoveries (now 383) ๐ธ Ningxia, Mainland China: +2 recoveries (now 71) ๐ธ Sichuan, Mainland China: +7 recoveries (now 442) ๐ธ San Marino: +2 cases (now 23) ๐ธ King County, WA, US: +2 deaths (now 12) | 14:07 |
mefistofeles | %data United States of America | 14:13 |
Brainstorm | mefistofeles: Sorry, United States of America not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 14:13 |
mefistofeles | %data USA | 14:13 |
Brainstorm | mefistofeles: Sorry, USA not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 14:13 |
mefistofeles | %data US | 14:13 |
mefistofeles | %data US | 14:13 |
Brainstorm | mefistofeles: In US, there are 233 cases, 14 deaths (6.0% of cases), 9 recoveries as of Fri Mar 6 14:02:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 14:13 |
mefistofeles | woah, many deaths | 14:13 |
mefistofeles | interesting | 14:13 |
chuckd[m] | Careful with the recoveries, some of them relapse | 14:16 |
mefistofeles | chuckd[m]: link? | 14:20 |
Brainstorm | ๐ธ Toronto, ON, Canada: +2 cases (now 23) ๐ธ Japan: +3 recoveries (now 46) ๐ถ Netherlands: +46 cases (now 128) ๐ถ Spain: +22 cases (now 382) ๐ถ World: +68 cases (now 100416), +3 recoveries (now 55832) | 14:22 |
mefistofeles | %data Germany | 14:23 |
Brainstorm | mefistofeles: In Germany, there are 577 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 17 recoveries as of Fri Mar 6 14:17:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data. | 14:23 |
mefistofeles | %data Italy | 14:23 |
Brainstorm | mefistofeles: In Italy, there are 3858 cases, 148 deaths (3.8% of cases), 414 recoveries as of Thu Mar 5 18:43:03 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 14:23 |
mefistofeles | %data Spain | 14:23 |
Brainstorm | mefistofeles: In Spain, there are 382 cases, 5 deaths (1.3% of cases), 3 recoveries as of Fri Mar 6 14:17:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Spain for time series data. | 14:23 |
mefistofeles | interesting | 14:23 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit Italy live at 13:12 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Giochi Olimpici 2020 : Le opzioni (Articolo in Inglese) โ https://is.gd/GwCRpQ | 14:24 |
LjL | mefistofeles, i do want to learn about new cases in Italy (ideally by region, but global data are what they are and clearly we aren't the US...) as soon as possible, and also people call %data very often when the channel is active so it may actually be less spammy if it just posts updates whenever there are some... but i guess i can make it poll less often if it bothers everyone so much | 14:34 |
LjL | at least now it looks like the reddit RSS is working, only took me about two weeks to figure out what was wrong (and it was trivially just Reddit rejecting my polls because i was doing it too often, but actually looking at the http response evidently was too sophisticated for me) | 14:35 |
Brainstorm | ๐ธ Switzerland: +4 cases (now 142) ๐ธ World: +4 cases (now 100420) | 14:37 |
LjL | i think i could also add a feature to tell people in PM when there are new cases in their area (or whatever areas they select, anyway) | 14:38 |
LjL | if anyone would like that, then state it | 14:38 |
mefistofeles | that would be better, indeed | 14:39 |
mefistofeles | or just a link to the feed less frequently, but that feed updated as frequent as it can | 14:39 |
mefistofeles | well, imho | 14:40 |
mefistofeles | LjL: also, where is the bot getting the new reported stats from? | 14:40 |
LjL | the updates don't seem so awfully frequent to me though, looking at the backscroll... when there's actually chat, they should be pretty unobtrusive. and if there is no chat they may as well be posted. i feel the same as i felt about the Big Bot Argument in ##science, basically | 14:40 |
LjL | mefistofeles, tinwhiskers's data as usual, he's using a good job of merging sources to get the most up to date stuff | 14:41 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit Italy live at 13:25 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Coronavirus e le problematica delle Crociere : una serie di incidenti di quarantena delle navi, dal Diamond Princess in Giappone alla Grand Princess ed ora la Costa Fortuna in Phuket. Ecco degli articoli riguardo : โ https://is.gd/cGjKnB | 14:41 |
mefistofeles | LjL: any ideas where is tinwhiskers getting them from? | 14:41 |
mefistofeles | tinwhiskers: โ | 14:41 |
LjL | mefistofeles, if anything, i am more bothered by the bot's updates from The Guardian (the other bot) since mine would post periodically while this one just seems to post like five articles at a time, very verbosely | 14:41 |
LjL | but i can change that now that Brainstorm *seems* to have proper RSS support again | 14:42 |
LjL | also i could remove Guardian entirely since they mostly seem to be about economy and stuff like that, even though it's the COVID feed :\ | 14:42 |
mefistofeles | it varies, but it does have a significant amount of those | 14:43 |
LjL | mefistofeles, tinwhiskers is mainly getting them from the JHU (the best-known map), but he augments them from other sources, but i don't know what those are | 14:43 |
mefistofeles | I see | 14:43 |
LjL | mefistofeles, would it help if i just removed the orange bullet points, is that a source of annoyance? also, would it be better if i made them NOTICEs coming from Matrix instead of PRIVMSGs? or is it just their existence regardless of details | 14:44 |
mefistofeles | actually, I like the bullet points, makes it readable | 14:45 |
LjL | the bullet points are meant to show *big* increases in cases at a glance. gives a big bullet if >10 | 14:45 |
LjL | okay | 14:45 |
mefistofeles | I just thought getting any change from any region/country in separate lines/objects just doesn't help much | 14:45 |
LjL | mefistofeles, well i'll make the poll frequency a bit lower for now | 14:45 |
mefistofeles | ok sure, thanks | 14:45 |
LjL | i think i have an idea | 14:47 |
mefistofeles | the thing is that I fear that adding all those new cases the bot puts here won't add up to the cases in the following report from JHU | 14:48 |
mefistofeles | I mean, they would probably add up to a larger value (redundancy) | 14:49 |
mefistofeles | but if the data is well curated, which tinwhiskers is probably doing fine, then that's not a problem | 14:49 |
Brainstorm | ๐ธ Bahrain: +1 cases (now 56) ๐ธ Dominican Republic: +1 cases (now 2) ๐ถ France: +154 cases (now 577), +2 deaths (now 9) ๐ธ Germany: +1 cases (now 578) ๐ธ Norway: +2 cases (now 108) ๐ธ Russia: +9 cases (now 13) ๐ถ World: +168 cases (now 100588), +2 deaths (now 3410) | 14:52 |
LjL | out TV just said a Chinese study shows children are indeed much less affected by the virus, but they do get it at the same rate as everyone else, it's just much milder... hence they are good spreaders | 14:53 |
LjL | mefistofeles, well i'm relying on tinwhiskers to do the data thing since he's been ahead of me for a while with that, and his site is one of the most valuable among many COVID trackers i know | 14:54 |
LjL | the bot used to use JHU data directly, but JHU only update the CSV data on a daily basis, which is not great | 14:54 |
mefistofeles | LjL: what's his site? | 14:54 |
LjL | mefistofeles, https://offloop.net/covid19/ | 14:54 |
mefistofeles | well, depends, I guess hourly or similar have much more noise/error | 14:55 |
mefistofeles | ah ok | 14:55 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test) at 13:44 UTC: CoronavirusGLOBAL: Timeline and Spread of COVID-19 โ https://is.gd/UO6eMU | 14:57 |
mefistofeles | they will probably cancel my events here :( that's going to be sad | 15:01 |
LjL | mefistofeles, what events? | 15:04 |
LjL | mefistofeles, it will probably not work as first as my code never does... but i've changed it so that only the big-bullet updates (i.e. +>10 increases) get posted as soon as the bot gets them. the small-bullet updates will be added to the end of the *next* big-bullet report. that should make them less frequent, while still reporting big changes immediately... | 15:05 |
mefistofeles | LjL: some academics events I was planning to go to | 15:06 |
mefistofeles | LjL: yeah, that should be better, thanks | 15:06 |
Timvde | %cases Belgium | 15:11 |
Brainstorm | Timvde: In Belgium, there are 109 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 1 recoveries as of Fri Mar 6 13:33:03 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Belgium for time series data. | 15:11 |
LjL | Timvde, Belgians never die... they're just reborn into Walloons or Fleming depending on how much they sinned during life | 15:12 |
Timvde | %cases Netherlands | 15:13 |
Brainstorm | Timvde: In Netherlands, there are 128 cases, 1 deaths (0.8% of cases), 0 recoveries as of Fri Mar 6 14:23:06 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Netherlands for time series data. | 15:13 |
mefistofeles | xD | 15:13 |
Timvde | Weaklings. | 15:13 |
Timvde | :P | 15:13 |
Timvde | (Sorry, I guess I shouldn't joke about that) | 15:13 |
mefistofeles | was it a joke? | 15:14 |
mefistofeles | %data brazil | 15:14 |
Brainstorm | mefistofeles: In Brazil, there are 9 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 0 recoveries as of Fri Mar 6 15:02:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Brazil for time series data. | 15:14 |
Albright | %data japan | 15:35 |
Brainstorm | UnboundLocalError: local variable 'backlog' referenced before assignment (file "/home/brainstorm/brainstorm/bot/modules/covid.py", line 83, in data) | 15:35 |
Albright | LjL: ^^^ | 15:35 |
mefistofeles | oops | 15:36 |
LjL | oh | 15:36 |
LjL | well, yeah, i sort of expected issues | 15:36 |
LjL | let's see | 15:36 |
LjL | oh right, i forgot in python i need to declare globals inside each function | 15:37 |
mefistofeles | LjL: is the bot's source code publicly available? | 15:43 |
LjL | mefistofeles, in a way | 15:44 |
LjL | %source covid | 15:44 |
Brainstorm | LjL, source code for module 'covid' can be found at https://paste.ee/p/GATjh | 15:44 |
LjL | that command's currently restricted to me though | 15:44 |
LjL | also | 15:45 |
LjL | %cases italy | 15:45 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In Italy, there are 3858 cases, 148 deaths (3.8% of cases), 414 recoveries as of Thu Mar 5 18:43:03 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 15:45 |
LjL | yay no error, maybe it's actually working | 15:45 |
Albright | %data japan | 15:56 |
Brainstorm | AttributeError: 'list' object has no attribute 'backlog' (file "/home/brainstorm/brainstorm/bot/modules/covid.py", line 81, in data) | 15:56 |
Albright | %cases japan | 15:57 |
Brainstorm | AttributeError: 'list' object has no attribute 'backlog' (file "/home/brainstorm/brainstorm/bot/modules/covid.py", line 81, in data) | 15:57 |
Albright | LjL: ^^^ | 15:57 |
Albright | Maybe it just doesn't like me in particular? | 15:57 |
LjL | well that's what i get for using the same name for a function as for a local variable | 15:58 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit Italy live at 14:51 UTC: /u/lessico_: Coronavirus: le misure per fermare l'epidemia funzionano? Cosa dice la scienza โ https://is.gd/h2m9BT | 15:58 |
LjL | %cases japan | 15:59 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In Japan, there are 381 cases, 6 deaths (1.6% of cases), 46 recoveries as of Fri Mar 6 15:46:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Japan for time series data. | 15:59 |
LjL | https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/two-british-airways-baggage-handlers-17876827 | 15:59 |
Albright | %title | 16:00 |
Brainstorm | Albright: From www.birminghammail.co.uk: Two British Airways baggage handlers test positive for coronavirus - Birmingham Live | 16:00 |
LjL | this is sort of a potential issue given the virus can stay on surfaces for possibly a long time | 16:00 |
ubLIX | some quite detailed analyses (pre-print) of sample data in Shenzhen: "Epidemiology and Transmission of COVID-19 in Shenzhen China: Analysis of 391 cases and 1,286 of their close contacts" - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20028423v1 (abstract) and direct link for full paper pdf: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20028423v1.full.pdf | 16:48 |
mefistofeles | interesting | 17:01 |
mefistofeles | thanks for sharing ubLIX | 17:01 |
ubLIX | yw. i'm still reading it but it does have some interesting details | 17:11 |
mefistofeles | ubLIX: feel free to share, not sure I'd have the time to read it :/ | 17:12 |
ubLIX | mefistofeles: it paints a nuanced picture. I'll finish reading it before attempting to post representative excerpts. | 17:18 |
mefistofeles | ubLIX: sure, thanks. | 17:29 |
tinwhiskers | mefistofeles: the data comes from the John Hopkins data on github and that is updated from the John Hopkins arcgis dashboard, worldometers and covid19info.live for any newer figures. They all appear to use the same sources because they generally agree with each other except with timing differences. | 17:30 |
tinwhiskers | i.e. you don't see one publish numbers that are later wrong | 17:31 |
mefistofeles | tinwhiskers: ah thanks | 17:31 |
mefistofeles | %data argentina | 17:32 |
Brainstorm | ๐ถ World: +30 cases (now 100762), +8 recoveries (now 55838), ๐ธ Austria: +8 cases (now 55), ๐ธ Iceland: +6 cases (now 43), ๐ธ Austria: +8 cases (now 55), ๐ธ Iraq: +1 recoveries (now 1), ๐ธ Austria: +8 cases (now 55), ๐ธ Iceland: +6 cases (now 43), ๐ธ Austria: +8 cases (now 55), ๐ธ Pakistan: +1 recoveries (now 1), ๐ธ Austria: +8 cases (now 55), ๐ธ Iceland: +6 cases (now 43), ๐ธ Austria: +8 cases (now 55), ๐ธ | 17:32 |
Brainstorm | mefistofeles: In Argentina, there are 2 cases, 0 deaths (0.0% of cases), 0 recoveries as of Fri Mar 6 02:29:39 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Argentina for time series data. | 17:32 |
mefistofeles | LjL: so, it's working better now, imho. But it's repeating countries :) | 17:33 |
tinwhiskers | %data Italy | 17:46 |
Brainstorm | ๐ถ World: +50 cases (now 100812), ๐ถ Japan: +39 cases (now 420), ๐ธ Czech Republic: +6 cases (now 18), ๐ธ Czech Republic: +6 cases (now 18), ๐ธ Poland: +4 cases (now 5), ๐ธ US: +1 cases (now 239), ๐ถ Japan: +39 cases (now 420), ๐ธ Czech Republic: +6 cases (now 18), ๐ธ Czech Republic: +6 cases (now 18), ๐ธ Poland: +4 cases (now 5), ๐ธ New York City, NY, US: +1 cases (now 5), ๐ถ Japan: +39 cases (now 420), | 17:46 |
Brainstorm | tinwhiskers: In Italy, there are 3858 cases, 148 deaths (3.8% of cases), 414 recoveries as of Thu Mar 5 18:43:03 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 17:46 |
mefistofeles | they surely have more cases than reported, something similar to what's happening in the US | 17:48 |
tinwhiskers | Yeah. This is only confirmed cases. | 17:49 |
tinwhiskers | Not testing is the best way to not get confirmed cases. *cough* China *cough* | 17:49 |
mefistofeles | haha | 17:49 |
mefistofeles | actually China had to invent new ways of testing, tbh | 17:50 |
mefistofeles | s/invent/try | 17:50 |
Brainstorm | mefistofeles meant to say: actually China had to try new ways of testing, tbh | 17:50 |
tinwhiskers | Yes, they've done some really good stuff but their numbers look wonky to me | 17:50 |
mefistofeles | I think they look pretty reasonable, at least the behaviour | 17:51 |
mefistofeles | not sure about the magnitude, though | 17:51 |
tinwhiskers | I think the behaviour looks suspect | 17:52 |
mefistofeles | tinwhiskers: why? | 17:53 |
tinwhiskers | They have done an amazing job if quarantining in hubei by basically locking people in their houses, but they don't do that in other provides. However if you look at all the provincial time series there is none of the minor (or major) outbreaks occurring despite some very minor increases indicating the presence. They look too perfect. | 17:55 |
tinwhiskers | They look like if you said "model what our data should look like if things went perfectly, then add a little noise and report those numbers". | 17:55 |
mefistofeles | well, I don't know, this seems very reasonable for me, but I guess we'll never know for sure :P | 17:56 |
tinwhiskers | They just look implausibly good | 17:57 |
mefistofeles | tinwhiskers: mind sharing what exactly of them look "too good"? I'm honestly interested | 17:57 |
mefistofeles | I have to run, but I keep my client connected, so hilight me if possible | 17:57 |
mefistofeles | talk to you later | 17:57 |
tinwhiskers | Ok | 17:58 |
tinwhiskers | If you plot all the provincial time-series I think you'll see what I mean. | 17:58 |
tinwhiskers | i.e. go to http://offloop.net/covid19/, click "clear all", right-click on "Mainland China" to select all the regions then deselect "Mainland China" and Hubei province. | 18:01 |
phil | List N: Disinfectants for Use Against SARS-CoV-2 | Pesticide Registration | US EPA (https://www.epa.gov/pesticide-registration/list-n-disinfectants-use-against-sars-cov-2) | 18:07 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test) at 16:36 UTC: CoronavirusGLOBAL: Hospitals overcapacity amidst Iranโs novel coronavirus crisis โ https://is.gd/QgB7d5 | 18:13 |
tinwhiskers | mefistofeles: those infection trajectories (as described above) tell a story where either the virus has basically infected everyone it can or is totally under control due to quarantine or something like a vaccine. The virus spread very quickly to all provinces but then just stopped spreading and petered out despite no quarantine measures. | 18:19 |
tinwhiskers | It's incredibly surprising to me that there were no community outbreaks where you see periods of exponential growth like we do almost everywhere else. | 18:21 |
tinwhiskers | There was one correction but that was a single day, and nothing like you would expect from a minor outbreak. No outbreaks over all of China even though there are many places the virus could move into and no strict measures to prevent that... Nah. | 18:22 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit Italy live at 17:22 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Aggiornamento numero di casi โ https://is.gd/v884ZB | 18:29 |
tinwhiskers | All those infection curves just simultaneously topping out around feb 15 looks incredibly artificial to me. | 18:34 |
tinwhiskers | Of course I don't know they are faked for sure by my spidey senses are tingling and I'm very skeptical. | 18:37 |
iz | doesn't have to be fake, could just be other factors | 18:37 |
iz | like they ran out of test kits or something | 18:37 |
tinwhiskers | Yeah, like no testing | 18:37 |
iz | yeah | 18:37 |
tinwhiskers | Yeah, that's what originally got me on to the topic | 18:37 |
iz | ah, word.. just catching up on scrollback in reverse order now | 18:38 |
tinwhiskers | [05:49:48] <b39775tinwhiskers> Not testing is the best way to not get confirmed cases. *cough* China *cough* | 18:38 |
iz | the usa too | 18:38 |
tinwhiskers | True | 18:38 |
contingo | maybe you could do some Benford's Law testing stuff on suspect figures | 18:41 |
contingo | idk | 18:41 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit WorldNews Live at 17:43 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: 2 new cases in Bosnia, total confirmed 3 โ https://is.gd/66d9uV | 18:45 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit WorldNews Live at 17:58 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: Currently, outside of China, there are 18,300 active cases, along with 2,135 recovered cases and 416 deaths, for a total case number of 20,851. The recovery rate is 10% and the Case Fatality Rate is almost exactly 2 percent. โ https://is.gd/KyK5Fq | 19:01 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit WorldNews Live at 18:09 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: 11 new cases in New York, state total 33 and national total confirmed cases 248 โ https://is.gd/v5MVxR | 19:17 |
Spec | not testing is a great strategy | 19:27 |
Spec | has WHO announced pandemic yet or are they waiting until the sky starts falling | 19:27 |
lapsang | I don't think this virus warrants a pandemic claim | 19:30 |
Spec | oh | 19:30 |
contingo | Spec it's not clear they ever would... Something about declaring a pandemic formally meaning automatically triggering protocols designed to deal with a flu pandemic not a SARS type pandemic or something | 19:31 |
contingo | https://www.newscientist.com/article/2235342-covid-19-why-wont-the-who-officially-declare-a-coronavirus-pandemic/ | 19:31 |
lapsang | yeah this isn't something with a high mortality rate | 19:32 |
lapsang | And at this point, everyone assumes that everyone will catch it, eventually | 19:33 |
lapsang | sort of takes all the magic and mystery out of the thing | 19:33 |
Spec | contingo: i see, makes sense | 19:35 |
Spec | lapsang: ;( | 19:35 |
Spec | is it reasonable to practice isolation | 19:35 |
lapsang | personally I don't think so | 19:37 |
lapsang | everyone's going to catch this eventually. | 19:37 |
lapsang | the isolation is in the hopes that someone will develop a vaccine before everyone comes out again. That isn't happening | 19:37 |
Spec | unless it dies off in 8 months for inexplicable reasons? | 19:38 |
lapsang | it could die off, but it would still be "out there" | 19:38 |
Spec | lapsang: i thought isolation was in the hopes of defraying the burden on healthcare system | 19:38 |
lapsang | hm, maybe so | 19:38 |
contingo | yes Spec, self-quarantine is in the general spirit of helping to slow community spread, along with taking precautions generally, so that healthcare and particularly critical care services are not completely overwhelmed all at once | 19:38 |
contingo | but it depends on what degree of isolation you mean by isolation | 19:39 |
Spec | i mean, i stopped going to work, we don't visit my parents (old) | 19:39 |
lapsang | I wonder how you "scale out" of isolation tho | 19:39 |
Spec | (i work remotely) | 19:39 |
Spec | we have supplies for some time, but like, my wife just went to the store | 19:39 |
lapsang | If that's the notion (slow the rate of disease spread), then they'd have to selectively de-quarantine parts of China | 19:39 |
Spec | so we're not in full quarantine mode or anything, but we've limited our interactions with outside world severely | 19:40 |
Spec | except my kid goes to school <3 | 19:40 |
contingo | hah | 19:40 |
contingo | maybe outsource parenting for awhile | 19:40 |
Spec | hahaha | 19:40 |
Spec | contingo: my wife and i have been sick for 7-8 days | 19:40 |
contingo | what with? | 19:41 |
Spec | no more fevers, but my wife has been tired/exhausted so she's still recovering | 19:41 |
Spec | don't know, flu like symptoms | 19:41 |
contingo | me too | 19:41 |
Spec | i'm not sleepy tho | 19:41 |
Spec | my wife had 103f | 19:41 |
Spec | i had 100.3f max :P | 19:41 |
Spec | my son was vomiting when he was sick a week prior | 19:41 |
Spec | i have...slight congestion/post nasal drip, and wet coughs, no shortness of breathing, was sneezing a ton but that's stopped | 19:42 |
lapsang | oh you've already had it maybe | 19:42 |
Spec | lapsang: it's not confirmed in my area, but i wouldn't be surprised...i'd put it at 50/50 | 19:42 |
Spec | considering my area | 19:42 |
lapsang | You're in the US, right? | 19:42 |
twomoons | spec are you in italy? | 19:42 |
Spec | no | 19:42 |
Spec | "not confirmed in my area" | 19:42 |
Spec | i live in a heavily korean area near DC | 19:43 |
lapsang | highly likely you could have caught it, then. | 19:43 |
Spec | lapsang: i believe 50/50, sure | 19:43 |
Spec | symptoms don't quite line up | 19:43 |
lapsang | Apparently one of the vectors in Korea is that hospitals there let people check themselve out | 19:43 |
Spec | no sore throats, no dry coughs | 19:43 |
lapsang | temporarily | 19:43 |
Spec | could just be normal flu, too | 19:43 |
lapsang | so people with covid-19 would, in a hospital gown with IV caddy still hooked up to them, go down the street to church service | 19:44 |
Spec | the thing that makes me wonder is - we all had three different sets of symptoms, really. | 19:44 |
Spec | my wife and son way more similar than me | 19:44 |
lapsang | different immune profiles would explain that | 19:44 |
Spec | yeah, and that's something seen with covid | 19:44 |
Spec | so if we did have it and we're on day 10, what should we expect? it seems like we both are in mild/recovery phase and won't need any services? | 19:45 |
lapsang | 50% of mild cases had dyspnea, but something like 98% of ICU patients had it. | 19:45 |
Spec | wtf is that | 19:45 |
lapsang | shortness of breath | 19:45 |
Spec | oh | 19:45 |
Spec | we all never had that | 19:45 |
Spec | nice | 19:45 |
lapsang | your lungs are infected, so your red blood cells don't get enough oxygen | 19:45 |
lapsang | there's a secondary infection that happens too, bacterial | 19:45 |
lapsang | I was once very angry that these ppl were given antibiotics, but now I know why | 19:46 |
Spec | so you think we're pretty much a-ok? | 19:46 |
contingo | I have no fever, no cough, but bad body aches, malaise and sleepiness, and short episodes of intense sneezing, for 10 days | 19:46 |
Spec | contingo: my wife had bad body aches, malaise and sleepiness, no intense sneezing. | 19:46 |
lapsang | I am not a doctor | 19:46 |
contingo | slight shortness of breath if I try to do exerting things that are usually trivial | 19:46 |
Spec | contingo: her legs hurt and were sore, and her feet, until i put heat pad on them -- after that, permanently ok | 19:46 |
lapsang | I entertain conspiracy theories which seem probable to me. One is that covid19 has already traversed the globe | 19:47 |
lapsang | I got raging ill mid Jan-early Feb | 19:47 |
Spec | lapsang: yeah, i said that 2 weeks ago for my area | 19:47 |
lapsang | w/pretty much covid19 symptoms | 19:47 |
Spec | lapsang: just the sheer number of flights into DC and washington | 19:47 |
Spec | lapsang: too bad testing isn't super widespread and accessible | 19:47 |
lapsang | Spec, in the US, we're not testing anyone unless they are in hospital ICU | 19:47 |
contingo | well it clearly has even in terms of officially confirmed cases, not just conspiracy theories | 19:47 |
Spec | if i could confirm it, i would quarantine for a month | 19:47 |
lapsang | nobody coming back from Lombardy on flights to JFK gets tested, for instance. | 19:47 |
Spec | 3 week recovery or so and 9 days until it dies on surfaces/etc | 19:48 |
Spec | yeah, jfk is 4 hours away from me or so | 19:48 |
lapsang | You're in DC. There's a parade of internationals thru there. | 19:48 |
Spec | true story | 19:48 |
lapsang | constantly | 19:48 |
Spec | lapsang: not a single confirmed case | 19:48 |
Spec | as of like two days ago, we had the capability to test 25 people a day | 19:48 |
Spec | (LOOOL) | 19:48 |
lapsang | we only just started testing. | 19:48 |
lapsang | something like six days ago, only 500 Americans total had been tested | 19:48 |
python476 | lapsang: what other theories | 19:48 |
Spec | so bad | 19:48 |
lapsang | and CDC takes 3-5 days to give test results | 19:48 |
Spec | so very bad | 19:49 |
contingo | if I don't get tested I won't break the quantum superposition of this being or not being corona | 19:49 |
Spec | yeah | 19:49 |
lapsang | python476 - ? just that I probably had it 5 weeks ago, and so did my friends... And since we are rural east coast, it's highly likely this spread in many more areas before anyone really got tested | 19:50 |
Spec | i mean it could just be normal flu *shrug8 | 19:50 |
Spec | which is another reason i'm isolating myself for a bit | 19:50 |
Spec | i wouldn't want multiple complications | 19:50 |
Spec | lapsang: where ya at? | 19:50 |
lapsang | Spec, in your experience, does the flu take 2 weeks to heal? | 19:50 |
python476 | lapsang: just asking, you said "one .. " as if you had more theories to tell us | 19:50 |
lapsang | NC/VA state line | 19:50 |
Spec | lapsang: yeah, last time i had flu i was REALLY FUCKING FLOORED, way more than i have been with my curent ailment | 19:50 |
lapsang | python476 no, others are off topic | 19:50 |
Spec | had to go to hospital for IV, couldn't keep fluids | 19:51 |
lapsang | oh wow | 19:51 |
Spec | this was many years ago, flu fucked me up | 19:51 |
Spec | maybe 10-15 | 19:51 |
Spec | lapsang: ah cool, a neighbourish :) | 19:51 |
contingo | the full on flus I've had have been completely debilitating, for the main phase of it I wouldn't be sitting up chatting on here, I'd be rolling around in a delirium or throwing up | 19:51 |
lapsang | Last time I had one of those was the mid 1990s... since then, I usually just get 3 day sick | 19:52 |
contingo | what I have now is annoying, it just won't clear up | 19:52 |
contingo | yeah, I think the last bad flu I had was 2009 | 19:53 |
tinwhiskers | [07:47:04] <17b339lapsang> I entertain conspiracy theories which seem probable to me. One is that covid19 has already traversed the globe | 19:53 |
tinwhiskers | ^ this is silly nonsense | 19:53 |
Spec | YELLOW | 19:53 |
contingo | lol | 19:54 |
python476 | contingo: do you have frail health or a particular condition ? | 19:54 |
Spec | tinwhiskers: i think it's unlikely too, since we'd see more deaths earlier | 19:54 |
Spec | likely just a different bug is also going around having fun | 19:54 |
python476 | some people on HN said they took vitamin supps to restore health and immune system | 19:54 |
tinwhiskers | Yes, the case timing makes that ludicrous | 19:54 |
contingo | python476 no I have good 10km run times and nice abs | 19:55 |
Spec | tinwhiskers: in my case, i feel like it's 50/50 though | 19:55 |
Spec | we'll know in ... about 2 weeks | 19:55 |
tinwhiskers | Maybe | 19:55 |
tinwhiskers | Yeah | 19:55 |
contingo | and an abundance of energy for life generally | 19:55 |
Spec | well, the probability will go up at any rate | 19:55 |
Spec | we won't "know" since i won't be tested | 19:55 |
contingo | just, not now | 19:55 |
lapsang | tinwhiskers my friend hosted a group from Beijing in early January. She, her husband and I got together for drinks and bonghits. Within about 10 days, all 3 of us were raging ill with new symptoms. It's not that far fetched. | 19:56 |
lapsang | First cases in China were in December, hence the "19" | 19:56 |
python476 | contingo: good to hear although, PE and strength is not necessarily immune strength | 19:56 |
python476 | where did you get the bad flu you talked about btw ? | 19:57 |
tinwhiskers | You do realise that there are other diseases. If it had already spread around the world we wouldn't be seeing sudden localised increases in cases like we are | 19:57 |
tinwhiskers | That's utterly ridiculous | 19:57 |
tinwhiskers | You got a cold | 19:57 |
python476 | tinwhiskers: do you think there could be silent epidemias going ? | 19:57 |
python476 | or would pharma labs and health orgs catch it ? | 19:57 |
lapsang | "sudden localised increases in cases" How would you know the difference between pneumonia and covid19 iwthout a test? LOL | 19:57 |
tinwhiskers | If that was happening we wouldn't see such localised areas showing symptoms. It would be more generalised | 19:58 |
lapsang | based on what? | 19:58 |
tinwhiskers | lapsang: pneumonia is just a symptom of covid-19 and other things like bacteria, fungus. It's not a disease | 19:59 |
contingo | it's quite rare I get ill with anything python476, and I travel widely. I got that '09 flu in Northamptonshire, England. During the swine flu outbreak. But I didn't get tested | 19:59 |
lapsang | RIGHT! | 19:59 |
lapsang | People die of pneumonia all the time, and without a test, it's assumed it was flu related or old age related | 19:59 |
tinwhiskers | You're claiming the virus might be widespread. If that was the case we would see widespread symptoms, not point outbreaks of symptoms | 19:59 |
lapsang | I think you place way too much faith in stats when the generation of those stats is faulty in and of itself | 19:59 |
lapsang | ~ how would you know the difference without a test ~ | 20:00 |
Spec | i think the sudden deaths is an obvious thing | 20:00 |
tinwhiskers | People dying | 20:00 |
lapsang | ~ only 500 Americans total were tested at the start of this week ~ | 20:00 |
tinwhiskers | Ffs. Grow a brain | 20:00 |
Spec | the flu strain killing people would have launched investigation | 20:00 |
lapsang | This disease has low mortality, primarily affecting the elderly and immunocompromised | 20:00 |
lapsang | brin: grown | 20:01 |
Spec | haha | 20:01 |
lapsang | Spec - about 22,000 deaths from the flu this year, I think | 20:02 |
LjL | is the bot doing okay? i was away from the computer, i think i'm not seeing much of anything from the bot in the backscroll | 20:02 |
Spec | i saw some | 20:02 |
tinwhiskers | LjL: did you see the repeated output thing? | 20:02 |
Spec | RSSBot did the thing | 20:02 |
lapsang | https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm | 20:02 |
contingo | something about a man saying he was unable to breathe | 20:02 |
lapsang | 20K-52K deaths | 20:02 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, nope | 20:03 |
Spec | > The 25-year-old said the disease started with a common cold before progressing to pneumonia, where it got so bad he was waking up at night unable to breathe | 20:03 |
Spec | what is the timeline on that | 20:03 |
contingo | which he must not have been unable to do for that long | 20:03 |
Spec | i have common cold symptoms now (and for 7 days or so) | 20:03 |
contingo | ugh | 20:03 |
lapsang | oh wow it just started dumping snow here... was sunny a moment ago | 20:03 |
Spec | lapsang: oh snaaaap really? | 20:03 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, hmm i see mostly just reddit posts, then two big +update posts, but they are different | 20:03 |
contingo | so we all already have it then, I've decided | 20:03 |
Spec | contingo: :P | 20:04 |
tinwhiskers | lapsang: yes, but not in clusters like we're seeing. You do realise that places outside the US are actually testing as well, right? | 20:04 |
lapsang | yeah it might be in your 4cast | 20:04 |
Spec | lapsang: but it's 50f outside? | 20:04 |
tinwhiskers | Clearly the cases are increasing exponentially in clusters. You would not be seeing that if it was already widespread. | 20:04 |
Spec | i do see snow on the map, exciting | 20:05 |
Spec | lapsang: i agree with tinwhiskers | 20:05 |
lapsang | tinwhiskers yes I do | 20:05 |
contingo | I have recrudescent and gradually worsening symptoms. About this time every day, I feel fine and that I'm over it, but each bedtime feels slightly worse than the previous. For nearly two weeks. I'm going to start a log now | 20:05 |
lapsang | why would that preclude it being widespread? Where tests aren't conducted, there are no cases. | 20:06 |
contingo | The first London case reported a week or two back was from my neighborhood | 20:06 |
lapsang | contingo hope you get better | 20:06 |
contingo | thank you | 20:06 |
fructose | tinwhiskers: I'd only point out that "widespread" is relative. It is completely plausible there are an order of magnitude more cases than are currently confirmed. | 20:06 |
tinwhiskers | fructose: yes, that's quite possible, but that's not what lapsang is referring to. | 20:07 |
Spec | contingo: i see, so you're at a 60/40, eh. | 20:07 |
contingo | there has been wide community testing done in e.g. Singapore, South Korea,and the results don't support the view that there is a large unreported infected population or asymptomatic population in those places | 20:07 |
tinwhiskers | contingo: exactly | 20:07 |
contingo | %8ball Do I have The Virus? | 20:09 |
Brainstorm | contingo, As I see it yes | 20:09 |
contingo | OK | 20:09 |
lapsang | https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-testing-united-states-broken-1490747 | 20:09 |
Spec | LjL: is there a travel ban outside of milan yet? | 20:10 |
Spec | contingo: sounds legit | 20:10 |
fructose | contingo: Keep in mind that we do not know the reliability of testing | 20:10 |
LjL | Spec, there are no travel bans except about leaving the two quarantine areas | 20:10 |
lapsang | https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/03/07/tourism-flows-and-death-rates-suggest-covid-19-is-being-under-reported | 20:10 |
lapsang | Seems that some experts agree with me | 20:10 |
fructose | e.g. https://sanchakblog.wordpress.com/2020/02/28/data-wisconsin-illumina-nanopore-sequences-merging-wuhan-coronavirus-and-bacteria-16s/ | 20:10 |
LjL | Spec, schengen isn't even closed, i could go to france and probably just be gratuitously harassed by the police at the first french toll booth, as per normal schengen customs | 20:11 |
contingo | i'm going to start throwing completely unsubstantiated and hopefully not counterproductive herbal supplements at this thing | 20:11 |
LjL | customs as in customs, not as in Customs | 20:11 |
tinwhiskers | lapsang: being under-reported is not agreeing about it already being widespread around the world | 20:11 |
fructose | contingo: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2095496420300157 | 20:11 |
contingo | oh cool fructose | 20:12 |
contingo | I probably have most of those in a cupboard somewhere | 20:12 |
LjL | contingo, i think this "it's fully of asymptomatic people" thing is one of many myths that are created out of initially cautious scientific statement, that gets turned by laymen into a perpetuated certainty, even after the scientists have long changed their minds, and had never said to be sure to begin with | 20:12 |
LjL | and this is a problem overall with the way people are reacting to this virus | 20:13 |
LjL | full* | 20:13 |
fructose | LjL: There is good evidence that there are many more cases in Washington State than have been confirmed | 20:13 |
contingo | in terms of a global picture, I think we're more or less seeing its progress in spreading around the world according to the actual reported figures, except yeah there's a small lead time of spread before reporting catches up, and some areas are not reporting accurately | 20:13 |
contingo | but generally, we can see, there are now cases in every continent, in new countries every day, and some clear megahotspots | 20:14 |
LjL | fructose, i certainly find it possible that in specific places, testing has not yet been deployed enough to find most of the cases... i just object to the perpetuated idea that there's a HUGE asymptomatic population everywhere | 20:14 |
tinwhiskers | In the US a horrible failure to provide testing means that underreporting is far worse there, but that's not the case everywhere | 20:14 |
fructose | It's more than that. | 20:15 |
LjL | what i'm scared of personally is that Italy has an extremely high mortality rate *despite* evidence that we've tested a lot | 20:15 |
Spec | > Around this time, the CDC said it would start what is known as surveillance testing in potentially at-risk cities of New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle, where flu patients would be tested for the new coronavirus in an attempt to spot the bug among those with no known contact with a hotspot or infected individual. | 20:15 |
Spec | lol | 20:15 |
Spec | DC ain't on that list for some reason | 20:15 |
LjL | Spec, ain't even a state | 20:15 |
lapsang | Why are South Koreans so prone to religious cults? | 20:15 |
lapsang | https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2020/03/04/South-Korea-authorizes-raid-of-Shincheonji-amid-COVID-19-outbreak/5871583330375/ | 20:15 |
LjL | Spec, they can probably quarantine DC without even changing the constitution, unlike everywhere else! | 20:15 |
contingo | LjL you and lapsang should have a convo about mortality rates and what the words low and high mean | 20:15 |
lapsang | They had to kick out a Prime Minister a few years ago for weird ass cult involvement | 20:16 |
LjL | contingo, they are somewhat subjective terms, granted... to me it means it's much higher than what was expected/projected weeks ago *of the outside-of-Hubei world* before the Italy hotspot happened | 20:16 |
tinwhiskers | fructose: yes, there are some people who may not show any symptoms but the current evidence suggests that most asymptomatic people do end up with symptoms. Yes, there are many cases that go unreported. This is far worse in the US than other places. No, the virus is not already widespread around the planet. It is clearly showing patterns of new outbreaks. | 20:17 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, can you elaborate on what you think went wrong with the bot reports you referred to? i see two suspiciously large reports but i'm not actually sure if there's something wrong with them | 20:17 |
tinwhiskers | [05:32:32] <@b39775Brainstorm> ๐ถ World: +30 cases (now 100762), +8 recoveries (now 55838), ๐ธ Austria: +8 cases (now 55), ๐ธ Iceland: +6 cases (now 43), ๐ธ Austria: +8 cases (now 55), ๐ธ Iraq: +1 recoveries (now 1), ๐ธ Austria: +8 cases (now 55), ๐ธ Iceland: +6 cases (now 43), ๐ธ Austria: +8 cases (now 55), ๐ธ Pakistan: +1 recoveries (now 1), ๐ธ Austria: +8 cases (now 55), ๐ธ Iceland: +6 cases (now 43), ๐ธ | 20:17 |
tinwhiskers | Austria: +8 cases (now 55), ๐ธ | 20:17 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, oh wait... repeated as in, i see Japan twice in this one for instance... | 20:18 |
Spec | lapsang: US has quite a few cults, too | 20:18 |
tinwhiskers | Countries are duplicate | 20:18 |
tinwhiskers | d | 20:18 |
LjL | thrice | 20:18 |
LjL | okay i get it :P | 20:18 |
LjL | but also why have there been no reports since? have the data not changed for hours? | 20:18 |
tinwhiskers | Hrm | 20:19 |
tinwhiskers | I'll get out of bed then | 20:19 |
LjL | sorry :P i'm looking at the bot's logs too and i'm confused because the numbers i see don't really match the numbers it posted | 20:20 |
LjL | and wow we just passed 100k cases worldwide | 20:20 |
contingo | lol @ TCM category names | 20:20 |
contingo | 100k we did it folks | 20:22 |
lapsang | lol did we just cross it? | 20:22 |
lapsang | WHOO!!!! | 20:22 |
lapsang | 4 101,587 | 20:22 |
LjL | it wasn't exactly a happy wow, but i'm glad you're excited | 20:23 |
lapsang | Nice, confirmed cases in Chatham and Wake counties | 20:23 |
Spec | lapsang: party time | 20:24 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, there was a very obvious thing that was missing in the bot causing it to carry on duplicate entries forever | 20:24 |
LjL | aside from that one, though, i'm not sure the logic is proper | 20:24 |
LjL | next time there is an update, also, it should post it from *both* IRC and Matrix | 20:24 |
LjL | bear with that, it won't do it forever, i just want to make sure posting from Matrix works | 20:24 |
lapsang | "As with all currently available tests, itโs not yet clear how long a person needs to be infected before testing positive, or whether someone who's infected could be identified by the test before displaying symptoms." - Stanford Medicine | 20:26 |
Spec | i almost didn't pay my bills :P | 20:26 |
Spec | i had no idea it was already march | 20:26 |
lapsang | "As of this morning, more than 160 people in the United States have been diagnosed; experts expect the actual number of cases nationwide is much larger. Washington and Northern California are currently most heavily affected, but cases have been diagnosed in several states." | 20:26 |
LjL | lapsang, that's good to know given i've just talked extensively to a person who's just tested negative BUT who got tested because of getting in contact with a positive patient recently! | 20:27 |
contingo | %tell RougeRR How is your contact who was trapped in the hotel doing? | 20:28 |
Brainstorm | contingo, I'll pass RougeRR aka RougeR your message when they are around. | 20:28 |
tinwhiskers | lapsang: all these things you're saying are true but not evidence of the virus already being globally widespread. | 20:30 |
lapsang | Right, because there can be no such evidence | 20:30 |
tinwhiskers | no, just because they are not evidence of that | 20:30 |
lapsang | To have that evidence, you'd have to have been testing large swaths of ill people | 20:30 |
lapsang | which the US isn't doing | 20:31 |
tinwhiskers | which is happening outside the US and shows no such thing | 20:31 |
lapsang | like South Korea? | 20:31 |
tinwhiskers | Several places | 20:31 |
LjL | contingo, there was also some German here briefly who was in Iran and only had a flight booked for two weeks from now... good luck with that | 20:31 |
lapsang | Give an example with test numbers, then? | 20:32 |
tinwhiskers | You're really pushing fud at this point lapsang | 20:32 |
lapsang | No, I'm pretty sure I introduced this as a "conspiracy theory" | 20:32 |
lapsang | Meanwhile, can you provide #s of negative tests correlated to region to support your conclusion | 20:32 |
tinwhiskers | most countries are only just starting to see people showing up with symptoms and they are in clusters. | 20:33 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit WorldNews Live at 19:30 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: 3 new cases in California, USA. State total 54, national total 252 confirmed cases (with about ten waiting for confirmation) โ https://is.gd/Sn5drT | 20:33 |
twomoons | crap, on the front page today where i live. someone came back from italy and didn't self quarantine | 20:34 |
twomoons | works at a store about 3 miles from my house | 20:34 |
lapsang | https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus-super-spreader | 20:34 |
tinwhiskers | yes, super-spreaders may exist too. But that STILL doesn't support the notion that the virus is globally widespread | 20:35 |
tinwhiskers | we are seeing CLUSTERS of outbreaks. if the virus was already widespread you would not see clusters | 20:35 |
tinwhiskers | stop spreading FUD | 20:35 |
lapsang | you're describing community infection | 20:35 |
lapsang | that doesn't mean it hasn't already spread widely | 20:36 |
tinwhiskers | yes, which is the virus was widespread wouldn't happen in clusters as it would be happening generally | 20:36 |
tinwhiskers | *if | 20:36 |
lapsang | clusters are only detected by positive test results | 20:36 |
lapsang | so where are the negative test results reinforcing this conclusion? | 20:36 |
Spec | i don't think we're going to get anywhere with this line of convo | 20:37 |
Spec | we can just patiently wait until testing becomes thorough :) | 20:37 |
tinwhiskers | they are appearing as unusual clusters of people getting symptoms and dying | 20:37 |
Spec | get it, patient-ly | 20:37 |
tinwhiskers | regardless of testing or lack thereof | 20:37 |
LjL | lapsang, i can provide data (and possibly a source, but it might be hard to look at browser history) that in Veneto, the region next to me and third most affected, for some reason they ran many more tests in proportion than here, and out of 7000 tests, they only had 250 positive. here where the worse cluster is, it was 1500 positives out of 9000. so i think veneto shows that even if you look at a lot of people, if there doesn't appear to be a BIG cluster, | 20:37 |
LjL | there isn't a BIG cluster - as opposed to it just being hidden in asymptomatic patients | 20:37 |
tinwhiskers | community spread is when people in the community get the disease from an unknown source and an outbreak occurs (i.e. a cluster). You don't get community spread if the virus is already widespread because the community already has it! | 20:40 |
contingo | lapsang, for example for example, in Scotland, 1525 tests have been conducted, 11 postive. South Korea is testing about 10K people per day and increasing capacity. I had stats for Singapore too somewhere | 20:40 |
contingo | minus one instance of "for example" | 20:40 |
LjL | i would like to encourage everyone who has good stats to save them somewhere and keep in mind i do want to have a good collection of links in the topic! :P | 20:42 |
Spec | what's china's testing look like? | 20:42 |
Spec | will they be ramped up to provide surplus tests to the world? | 20:42 |
tinwhiskers | hard to say. possibly non-existent | 20:42 |
Spec | tinwhiskers: what? | 20:42 |
tinwhiskers | something looks wrong with the data coming out of china to me. Either they are not testing, not releasing data, or they have a magic solution they are not telling us about. | 20:43 |
tinwhiskers | (I'm not entirely seriosu but it looks wonky) | 20:43 |
lapsang | lol tinwhiskers is getting on my FUD train | 20:44 |
tinwhiskers | heh | 20:44 |
lapsang | unless YOUR speculations are merely that | 20:44 |
lapsang | but MINE are FUD | 20:44 |
Spec | tinwhiskers: now there's the sort of conspiracy theories that'll make you wear a tinfoil hat | 20:44 |
Spec | the purposeful actions of china :P | 20:44 |
tinwhiskers | heh | 20:44 |
twomoons | where was the multi-strain theory rebuffed? | 20:44 |
Spec | has it been? | 20:44 |
tinwhiskers | I'll walk you through the data and my reasoning if you like | 20:44 |
lapsang | A bunch of Chinese citizens were complaining at the onset of the outbreak that their deceased loved ones didn't have anything about covid-19 on the death certs, just pneumonia | 20:44 |
Spec | tinwhiskers: pls do | 20:44 |
lapsang | my previous post was anecdotal, and probably came from one of those hysteria-filled "angry chinese health worker" vids | 20:45 |
yuriwho | I think it's clear that we cannot trust the 'official' chinese data | 20:45 |
Spec | lapsang: lame | 20:46 |
Spec | lapsang: rains begin | 20:46 |
tinwhiskers | well, if you go to http://offloop.net/covid19/, click "clear all", then right-click on "Mainland China" to select all the provinces, then deselect "Mainland China" and hubei you'll maybe see what I mean. | 20:46 |
Spec | yuriwho: s/chinese/a few countries/ | 20:46 |
Brainstorm | Spec thinks yuriwho meant to say: I think it's clear that we cannot trust the 'official' a few countries data | 20:46 |
Spec | that wasn't a good substitution at all | 20:46 |
contingo | lapsang, "as of 9am on 6 March 2020, 20,338 people have been tested in the UK, of which 20,175 were confirmed negative and 163 positive" | 20:46 |
yuriwho | true Spec | 20:46 |
lapsang | contingo thanks, that's very useful | 20:47 |
yuriwho | I think most authoritarian countries cannot be trusted | 20:47 |
lapsang | seems to confirm this virus isn't as savage as some initially feared | 20:47 |
Spec | tinwhiskers: you mean because the curves dont' seem right? | 20:47 |
Spec | oh, the deaths chart looks fake | 20:48 |
lapsang | France expecting an epidemic now, closing secondary schools in affected regions | 20:48 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, "or they have a magic solution they are not telling us about." โ i've actually thought of this in some of my conspiracy theorizing moments... what if they've figured it out, and now they know the rest of the world will have a really tough time, and they want to be the next clear world leaders by letting that happen | 20:48 |
tinwhiskers | they seem too good. Most provinces only had small outbreaks and there were large areas where the virus has not been. They don't have the lockdown quarantine they had in Hubei. There are plenty of places the virus could go and break out, yet not a single case of even a small outbreak has occurred. | 20:49 |
Spec | so is wuhan gonna be permanently shutdown? are they all just dead? | 20:49 |
LjL | Spec, they are very shutdown | 20:49 |
LjL | mostly not dead afaik | 20:49 |
Spec | food ? | 20:49 |
lapsang | Wuhan is a horror movie right now | 20:49 |
LjL | Spec, did i show you the Russian guy's video? | 20:49 |
LjL | Spec, it's a bit long but he does crazy things | 20:49 |
tinwhiskers | I don't believe the Chinese quarantine can be so perfect that they prevent every single case of even a small outbreak occurring | 20:49 |
LjL | and you see crazy China | 20:49 |
Spec | LjL: no | 20:50 |
tinwhiskers | and all the curves tapered off at almost exactly the same time | 20:50 |
Spec | tinwhiskers: you think, what, instead? they are hiding it? | 20:50 |
tinwhiskers | I don't know. It just doesn't look right | 20:50 |
Spec | well a universal procedural solution would explain that, right? | 20:50 |
contingo | I have the same reaction tinwhiskers | 20:50 |
Spec | or the discovery of an effective drug | 20:50 |
tinwhiskers | it looks exactly like of someone modelled an ideal situation, added a little noise and used those numbers for reporting. | 20:50 |
yuriwho | sadly, Wuhan is also the center for most pharmaceutical chemistry which much of the world relies upon for chemical intermediates | 20:50 |
Spec | of course I guess if it was a purposeful chinese military action, well. *tinfoilhat* | 20:51 |
LjL | Spec, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1yXTlvTB08 there are some salient timestamps i could link (since i linked them to before and have them in logs)... but honestly it's decent enough to watch it all | 20:51 |
LjL | Spec, some of it will be things you do already know, but meh | 20:51 |
tinwhiskers | there are many explanations and motivations for why China might not report correctly. I'm not about to guess, but the data looks wrong. | 20:51 |
lapsang | Nothing about covid-19 looks "intentional" | 20:51 |
tinwhiskers | err, no | 20:52 |
LjL | not intentional i agree, but advantage could be taken of | 20:52 |
lapsang | it's an equal-opportunity damager | 20:52 |
tinwhiskers | who said intentional? | 20:52 |
LjL | like people here did with hoarding masks/sanitizer and then reselling them for huge margins | 20:52 |
Spec | tinwhiskers: i did, above, right before i put on my foil hat | 20:52 |
LjL | move that to an international scale... | 20:52 |
tinwhiskers | oh | 20:52 |
Guest24500 | Its Modified, intentional is the word | 20:52 |
Spec | LjL: for medicine, yeah, they could definitely exploit world markets | 20:52 |
Spec | Guest24500: what do you mean | 20:53 |
tinwhiskers | Spec: Oh, I assumed you meant the purposeful action was misreporting | 20:53 |
Spec | tinwhiskers: ah, well, that could be something, too | 20:53 |
Guest24500 | The Wuhan-400 facility, built decades ago, told about in a Dean Koontz Book | 20:53 |
Spec | probably purposefully misreporting to halt global economic downturn tho | 20:53 |
tinwhiskers | yes, that's certainly a good explanation | 20:54 |
Guest24500 | Remember Plum Island And the Lyme? | 20:54 |
tinwhiskers | but one of many | 20:54 |
yuriwho | it's a zoonotic disease from animal sources | 20:54 |
contingo | I could ask my relatives dotted around China, if where they are is also secretly an unreported horror story, or if they've been given a secret cure | 20:54 |
contingo | but I don't like talking to them much | 20:54 |
Guest24500 | Most All Of these Germs Are Patented | 20:54 |
Spec | contingo: :doit: | 20:54 |
tinwhiskers | please do it! | 20:54 |
LjL | ugh. every time i "fix" the bot, i am meant to stare at the logs and make sure my code is actually loading and not erroring out... and instead, i always end up chatting and forgetting about it until i'm like "wait, why isn't the bot saying anything" -.- | 20:55 |
yuriwho | /ignore Guest24500 | 20:55 |
Spec | LjL: :) | 20:55 |
contingo | OK then | 20:55 |
Spec | no harm in inquiring | 20:55 |
tinwhiskers | LjL: oh, my end seems to be updating correctly. | 20:55 |
Guest24500 | 8> | 20:55 |
Spec | maybe they'll tell you the secret is chicken noodle soup | 20:55 |
LjL | Guest24500, let's talk some sense shall we? | 20:55 |
Guest24500 | Want Patent #'s ? | 20:56 |
Guest24500 | look them up | 20:56 |
contingo | well my one aunt has a bird's nest soup empire so she'll definitely tell me to take that | 20:56 |
LjL | Guest24500, no, i stated what i want | 20:56 |
Spec | i don't think there's a patent on chicken noodle soup | 20:56 |
Spec | contingo: nice :) | 20:56 |
contingo | I won't get immediate responses anyway | 20:56 |
Guest24500 | Stay hydrated, eat well, The Strong Will Survive | 20:56 |
Spec | selecting for strong immune systems is probably not ideal for our current society and infrastructures | 20:57 |
Spec | but ok then | 20:57 |
LjL | Guest24500, i don't know about survival, but i know about survival in an irc channel: it generally takes engaging in discussion in a coherent way, providing explanations and motivations, and not just spouting sentences for effect | 20:57 |
contingo | most of them are dotted around Guangdong | 20:57 |
tinwhiskers | I tried to look up the patent number for covid-19 but failed. You've already looked it up have you Guest24500? Care to post a link? | 20:58 |
tinwhiskers | idiot | 20:58 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, it was fine without the "idiot" part, don't let it get to you, i did that yesterday and it just made me sleep late and not well | 20:58 |
Guest24500 | let me boot up my other rtig , hold on | 20:59 |
tinwhiskers | :-/ | 20:59 |
contingo | how about "ya wee daftie" | 20:59 |
LjL | that's kinda funny | 20:59 |
tinwhiskers | heh | 21:00 |
contingo | see I studied hostage de-escalation psychology | 21:00 |
LjL | anyway if you google "Dean Koontz covid-19", just for fun, you will immediately find plenty of hits explaining why he did NOT predict this... but to someone who believes it, i guess, that's just evidence that someone really wants to cover it up very badly. sometimes you just can't win | 21:01 |
contingo | OK facebook messages sent | 21:01 |
Spec | contingo: ya wee daftie <3 | 21:01 |
tinwhiskers | contingo: nice | 21:01 |
tinwhiskers | hopefully they don't get arrested for speaking out | 21:01 |
twomoons | how's the internet in Tonga tinwhiskers ? | 21:01 |
LjL | i assume they're good at VPNs | 21:01 |
twomoons | i'm assuming you're on satellite internet | 21:01 |
Spec | LjL: i took the day off but like, shit clouds :( | 21:02 |
Spec | just depressing news | 21:02 |
LjL | Spec, okayish day here today, yeah except for the news | 21:02 |
LjL | %covid italy | 21:02 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In Italy, there are 4636 cases, 197 deaths (4.2% of cases), 523 recoveries as of Fri Mar 6 18:33:03 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 21:02 |
LjL | ... okay i didn't even have THESE news yet | 21:03 |
Spec | damn | 21:03 |
twomoons | wow....the damn mort rate keeps going up | 21:03 |
LjL | the mortality just | 21:03 |
Tobi[m] | can we make a group map with our locations, just the country? | 21:03 |
LjL | yes, that | 21:03 |
twomoons | how the fuk is that possible | 21:03 |
tinwhiskers | twomoons: it comes and goes a bit, mostly due to poor management. There is a cell tower on another island about 3 km from here. I mostly get an HSPA but sometimes HSPA+. On a good day I can get about 500Kb/s | 21:03 |
Spec | tinwhiskers: where are you? | 21:03 |
LjL | Tobi[m], if you want (and others want)... i would prefer to have it somewhere that uses openstreetmaps, though, just nothing google | 21:03 |
tinwhiskers | sorry, 500KB/s | 21:03 |
Tobi[m] | because of the italian cases added to the statistics | 21:03 |
twomoons | ahh ok, pretty slow for you probably | 21:03 |
Spec | LjL: maybe italy is undertesting still so mort rate is not representative of reality? | 21:04 |
tinwhiskers | i.e. 1 MB in 2 seconds. it's not too shabby. | 21:04 |
LjL | Spec, but italy is overtesting is my understanding | 21:04 |
Spec | ruhroh. | 21:04 |
twomoons | the mort rate just cannot be 4.2% that's just absurd | 21:04 |
LjL | i'm afraid you cannot tell viruses what to do, twomoons | 21:04 |
twomoons | i bet it's more like 0.5-1.5% in reality | 21:04 |
Spec | LjL: omg | 21:04 |
LjL | they just figure it out on their own | 21:05 |
Spec | LjL: all of the honey had settled at the bottom of my tea | 21:05 |
LjL | twomoons, well, that's true in Korea. if you can figure out why it doesn't seem to hold true in Italy, you may make a ton of Italians happy | 21:05 |
LjL | (especially if you can also figure out how to change it) | 21:05 |
Guest24500 | us patent for some others 1st - #5,604,903 5,189,022 5,242,820 | 21:05 |
Spec | LjL: oh, just stop dying | 21:05 |
LjL | oh i didn't think of that | 21:05 |
Spec | LjL: much like how we encourage the poor to end their suffering, here, stop being poor | 21:05 |
Guest24500 | JHK virus in CFIDS > 5,827,750 | 21:06 |
LjL | Spec, the poor and the old will die the most from this virus. we did need less poverty and we did have an uncomfortably aging population, didn't we? ;( | 21:06 |
tinwhiskers | Guest24500: link please | 21:06 |
Spec | what is JHK | 21:06 |
tinwhiskers | Guest24500: just to covid-19 though | 21:06 |
LjL | i eat | 21:06 |
Guest24500 | cdc.gov/ncidod/dvbid | 21:07 |
Brainstorm | ๐ถ World: +16 cases (now 101873), +1 deaths (now 3462), ๐ถ Spain: +13 cases (now 400), +1 deaths (now 6), ๐ธ North Macedonia: +2 cases (now 3), ๐ธ North Macedonia: +2 cases (now 3), ๐ธ UK: +1 cases (now 164) ๐ถ Spain: +13 cases (now 400), +1 deaths (now 6), ๐ธ North Macedonia: +2 cases (now 3) ๐ธ North Macedonia: +2 cases (now 3) ๐ธ UK: +1 cases (now 164) | 21:07 |
twomoons | i'd love to move to italy to lower the average age | 21:09 |
twomoons | oh wait i'm close to 40 already | 21:09 |
Guest24500 | adapted virus from monkeys patentstorm.us/patents/6117667/description.html | 21:10 |
Guest24500 | All this found at places like whale.to | 21:10 |
Guest24500 | I dont play favs | 21:10 |
Guest24500 | tinmam | 21:10 |
tinwhiskers | Maybe check your links. they're all broken. either put up your evidence that covid-19 is patented or shut up | 21:11 |
Guest24500 | not my fault they're rebuiling there website, i saved all these pages yrs ago on ext hdd. as long as i know wats up. I'm satisfied | 21:12 |
tinwhiskers | evidence for *covid-19* being patented | 21:13 |
tinwhiskers | did you get that evidence years ago? | 21:13 |
Guest24500 | heres one for hpv that aint broke whale.to/cancer/Creating-an-HPV-Industry.pdf | 21:14 |
tinwhiskers | That's about a patent on a vaccine, not the virus isn't it? | 21:15 |
Guest24500 | If You dont know how to find this stuff, try a different search engine, Or #Lern2Surf | 21:16 |
tinwhiskers | Although there are patents on viruses so that's not in question. You're claiming covid-19 is patented though so you'd need to provide some evidence for that assertion. | 21:16 |
tinwhiskers | oh. | 21:17 |
Spec | tinwhiskers: oh? | 21:19 |
Spec | ah, he left | 21:19 |
Spec | a lot of broken links and claims | 21:20 |
Spec | gone, but not done spreading fud | 21:20 |
Spec | 15:19 <+Guest24500> Every Election Yr, nother Modified Patented ZGerm Is Released....hmnnn | 21:20 |
Brainstorm | ๐ถ World: +18 cases (now 101891), ๐ธ Ireland: +5 cases (now 18), ๐ธ Norway: +5 cases (now 125), ๐ธ Ireland: +5 cases (now 18), ๐ธ US: +8 cases (now 267), ๐ธ Ireland: +5 cases (now 18), ๐ธ Norway: +5 cases (now 125), ๐ธ Ireland: +5 cases (now 18) ๐ธ Ireland: +5 cases (now 18) ๐ธ Norway: +5 cases (now 125), ๐ธ Ireland: +5 cases (now 18) ๐ธ US: +8 cases (now 267), ๐ธ Ireland: +5 cases (now 18), ๐ธ Norway: +5 | 21:21 |
tinwhiskers | sheesh | 21:21 |
Spec | i think the repeat bug is still there | 21:21 |
tinwhiskers | LjL: ^ | 21:21 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit Italy live at 20:23 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Riassunto per il 6 Marzo โ https://is.gd/klAAWE | 21:23 |
LjL | Okay | 21:24 |
LjL | Having dinner now though, will have to see later | 21:24 |
tinwhiskers | I know I keep saying covid-19 is a virus, when that is actually the name for the group of symptoms caused by the 2019-nCoV, but lets just have a rule that we accept covid-19 as a colloquial alternative name for the virus too :-) | 21:28 |
tinwhiskers | I should try harder on that really. I guess it could be an important distinction. | 21:28 |
Spec | tinwhiskers: we must make small sacrifices for greater understanding and communication | 21:28 |
Spec | ryouma: welcome, check paste in topic for data sources | 21:28 |
Spec | offloop.net is data aggregation/mapping provided by tinwhiskers | 21:29 |
ryouma | Spec: thank you. can teh bot be queried without troubling the channel? | 21:30 |
Spec | no, but no one will be troubled | 21:31 |
Spec | wait, i mean yes of course, you can PM it | 21:31 |
Spec | %data italy | 21:31 |
Brainstorm | Spec: In Italy, there are 4636 cases, 197 deaths (4.2% of cases), 523 recoveries as of Fri Mar 6 18:33:03 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 21:31 |
twomoons | 4.2% is nuts man | 21:31 |
twomoons | scary shit | 21:31 |
ryouma | don't you need a bot name to pm it? | 21:32 |
Spec | ryouma: /msg brainstorm %data italy | 21:33 |
ryouma | great, thanks | 21:33 |
ryouma | my hazy understanding of the sars epidemic was that it was part of the immune response to the virus that did its victims in. this virus seems age-correlated? does that mean that the same thing does not apply? which parts of the immune system are most useful against this virus, and which might be harmful to the victim? | 21:36 |
ryouma | (e.g. innate response / nk cells, igg) | 21:37 |
tinwhiskers | ryouma: yeah, cytokine storm | 21:40 |
ryouma | ugh. i have extremely high il-8 and il-6 and proably more alraedy. | 21:41 |
tinwhiskers | the same applies in that regard as with SARS | 21:41 |
LjL | tinwhiskers: actually the virus is called SARS-COV-2, keep up :p | 21:42 |
tinwhiskers | oh. crap | 21:43 |
ryouma | i should have said sars proper or sars per se | 21:43 |
ryouma | or somethign | 21:44 |
tinwhiskers | ryouma: it's ok. I think everyone knew what you meant there | 21:44 |
tinwhiskers | SARS = SARS-CoV. Covid-19=SARS-COV-2 | 21:44 |
tinwhiskers | fantastic | 21:44 |
tinwhiskers | I guess they didn't want to call it 2019-nCov because it would tarnish the reputation of 2019. :-/ | 21:45 |
LjL | tinwhiskers: well the disease is still covid-19 | 21:46 |
LjL | Even though we'll probably remember 2020 the most | 21:46 |
tinwhiskers | yes, there is still that :-) | 21:46 |
LjL | Unless I'm too much of an optimist and we'll mostly remember 2021 | 21:46 |
tinwhiskers | You're too much of an optimist. I may only remember the first 6 months of 2020 | 21:47 |
LjL | There is that too | 21:47 |
tinwhiskers | lol | 21:47 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit WorldNews Live at 20:43 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: 1 new case in California, 7 new cases in Washington USA, national total confirmed 260 โ https://is.gd/qJ7ejA | 21:48 |
ryouma | the offloop map seems extraordinary. the delay in uptick in the non-china countries seems large. so containment /of/ china seems like it delayed | 21:48 |
ryouma | successfully | 21:48 |
tinwhiskers | I guess | 21:48 |
tinwhiskers | there was quite a delay it seems, but they didn't even try containment until weeks after community spread began, so I'm not sure you can say it was good managemenbt or just luck. | 21:49 |
LjL | contingo, Spec... Do you have an opinion about the concept of getting some spray disinfectant to just quickly spray all over delivered groceries, since I'm pretty sure my parents aren't going to just disinfect each package individually? Would that be useful with the right kind of spray? | 21:53 |
tinwhiskers | Lockdown in Wuhan was on Jan 23 and we were already seeing cases outside China by then | 21:53 |
tinwhiskers | Although there may have been other strategies used prior to that that may have helped too. | 21:54 |
LjL | tinwhiskers: also they announced the lockdown in advance which is what you'd expect of a smart country like Italy (and expectedly yes we also did) | 21:56 |
tinwhiskers | LjL: so what's the deal with your quarantine rules at present? | 21:57 |
LjL | tinwhiskers: we don't really have quarantine outside of the original two small cluster areas, we're talking less than 60k people. The rest of us, some activities are restricted, but I'd say that the only really big one is schools being closed, and that's countrywide | 21:59 |
ryouma | i'd like to know about the groceries thing too whether delivery or not. also, has it been nailed down the lifespan of the virus on surfaces? i have seen hours -> 9d -> 28d "for veterinary coronaviruses" | 21:59 |
tinwhiskers | ryouma: I just really don't know yet so it's all speculation | 21:59 |
LjL | ryouma: yes unfortunately we have no idea. There is a link in the topic resources to a preliminary study of how long other coronaviruses last on various types of surfaces | 21:59 |
tinwhiskers | *WE | 21:59 |
tinwhiskers | :-/ | 22:00 |
ryouma | i am bedridden with an unhygienic, stressful, face-touching, convenience-oriented carer, so such questions are useful | 22:00 |
LjL | tinwhiskers: there was talk of adding a third quarantine area in a place where cases were seeming to sprout, but I think that's been dropped, maybe they finally realized talking about it in advance would make it somewhat pointless | 22:01 |
Brainstorm | ๐ถ World: +17 cases (now 101910), ๐ถ Austria: +11 cases (now 66), ๐ธ Norway: +2 cases (now 127), ๐ธ World: +2 cases (now 101893), ๐ธ Norway: +2 cases (now 127), ๐ธ Argentina: +1 cases (now 3), ๐ธ Norway: +2 cases (now 127), ๐ธ World: +2 cases (now 101893), ๐ธ Norway: +2 cases (now 127), ๐ธ Norway: +2 cases (now 127), ๐ธ World: +2 cases (now 101893), ๐ธ Norway: +2 cases (now 127), ๐ธ Argentina: +1 cases (no | 22:01 |
LjL | That's a lot of norways | 22:01 |
LjL | And I am developing a sore throat :( | 22:01 |
tinwhiskers | oh, no | 22:01 |
LjL | I talked a lot today... But I think it's getting a little too strong to be just that | 22:02 |
tinwhiskers | I was thinking I would get an entire box of certain foods so they are still in their original box. Then you open the box with gloves and empty the contents out such that the individual packets should be uncontaminated. But that sort of scale doesn't work for some foods. | 22:03 |
ryouma | i got a definite nasopharynx/run-down symptom like a cold or flu is starting last night. zinc lozenges and gargled salt, less bad now. | 22:03 |
tinwhiskers | e.g. Ramen noodles would work for me | 22:03 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit WorldNews Live at 21:03 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: 1 new case in Romania, total confirmed 9 โ https://www.reddit.com/live/14d816ty1ylvo/updates/0039b4be-5fee-11ea-b448-0e4f5fa4d1dd | 22:04 |
LjL | tinwhiskers: there's no way I am convincing my parents to go full prepper style... Although they are finally kinda worried | 22:05 |
contingo | I don't really know what would be most effective for that LjL | 22:09 |
contingo | do you like swimming pool / chlorine smells? | 22:09 |
tinwhiskers | Leaving stuff out in the direct sunlight may be effective and certainly wouldn't hurt for most things if that's an option | 22:10 |
LjL | contingo: I don't care but my mom is super sensitive to smells. Anyway I'd prioritize whatever works and isn't toxic to spray around over smell | 22:10 |
LjL | tinwhiskers: not really, we just have a tiny balcony on the mostly not sunny side :( | 22:10 |
tinwhiskers | :-( | 22:11 |
LjL | This apartment is a bit lacking on the balcony side | 22:11 |
LjL | We have a stupidly large bow window though | 22:11 |
yuriwho | tinwhiskers: you will probably be that person alive given where you live | 22:11 |
LjL | (Where other apartments have a balcony, alternate floors) | 22:11 |
yuriwho | s/that/the last | 22:12 |
Brainstorm | yuriwho meant to say: tinwhiskers: you will probably be the last person alive given where you live | 22:12 |
tinwhiskers | yuriwho: I hope you're right, but I think being remote will only delay the inevitable and I have a lung condition right now so I'm just hoping the delay is long enough to get better. | 22:13 |
ubLIX | LjL: did you read the paper I linked at 16:49? | 22:13 |
LjL | No, going to get the laptop | 22:14 |
tinwhiskers | I saw one doctor saying it was questionable whether you should take paracetamol and ibuprofen to reduce your fever, since a fever is part of your body's way of fighting off virues. | 22:14 |
tinwhiskers | they should be used if your fever gets dangerously high though | 22:14 |
tinwhiskers | otherwise you should just live with the fever | 22:15 |
yuriwho | agreed tinwhiskers | 22:15 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, i don't have a fever though, i just have a sore throat. paracetamol kinda works for me as a painkiller that isn't hard on the stomach | 22:15 |
tinwhiskers | oh, I see. | 22:15 |
LjL | it's hard on the liver but i believe that's only if you use it a lot and for long times | 22:15 |
ubLIX | LjL: about a study of data for cases in Shenzhen between 14 Jan and 12 Feb, 391 cases and considering 1286 close contacts; in their data, they found R=0.4, which they attribute to symptom surveillance and contact tracing, emphasising contact tracing. 0.4! | 22:16 |
LjL | i see it | 22:17 |
tinwhiskers | wow. That's extremely low | 22:17 |
ubLIX | LjL: would be curious to see data/discussion of Italy's efforts on contact tracing front | 22:17 |
tinwhiskers | too low to make much sense | 22:17 |
LjL | ubLIX, i would be curious to see data of Italy's | 22:17 |
LjL | in general | 22:17 |
LjL | because i don't see much | 22:17 |
LjL | also site doesn't load, ugh, what's with my name resolving all the time | 22:17 |
tinwhiskers | ubLIX: You do mean R0 I take it? | 22:18 |
ubLIX | tinwhiskers: well the authors use R (at the point I took that number from) but I believe so, yes | 22:18 |
LjL | remind me, what percentage of cases present with a sore throat first? :P | 22:18 |
tinwhiskers | ah. ok. That's crazy low. | 22:19 |
yuriwho | fever and dry cough are ~90% of first symptoms | 22:19 |
yuriwho | if you have a runny nose, it's not covid | 22:20 |
LjL | this is annoying but kinda funny-looking... https://framapic.org/o9SlbUsrUnGS/99dFnsyVkLsJ.png | 22:20 |
LjL | yuriwho, no runny nose, i'm just developing annoyingly stronger throat pain. chances are is because i talked too much today, but it hurts | 22:20 |
contingo | lol Dean Koontz | 22:21 |
yuriwho | well, covid is a lower respiratory tract infection, not upper | 22:21 |
contingo | well if hypochlorous spray really works, I recommend it for that | 22:21 |
contingo | if it doesn't really work, then I don't recommend it | 22:21 |
contingo | :P | 22:21 |
ubLIX | tinwhiskers: in Shenzhen, though. Contact-tracing based no-ifs, no-buts preemptive isolation; release conditional on negative PCR. Must be easier to drive down R when citizens don't get to even think about saying no, never mind actually saying no | 22:22 |
yuriwho | looks like pension funds were re-balancing again at the end of the day friday in the US markets | 22:23 |
tinwhiskers | heh. I guess | 22:23 |
LjL | contingo, i might buy some tautologous spray :P | 22:23 |
tinwhiskers | https://www.epa.gov/pesticide-registration/list-n-disinfectants-use-against-sars-cov-2 | 22:23 |
twomoons | how can you tell that yuriwho ? | 22:24 |
LjL | ubLIX, tinwhiskers: in the Russian guy's video, where he shows the apartment he rented (and the crazy checkpoint measures to enter his own home), he also shows there are sign posted on all buildings saying that you are required by law not only to report if you have a fever or other suspicious symptoms, but also if you notice it on any neighbor. don't remember which place that was, though | 22:24 |
LjL | but he was originally based on Shanghai | 22:25 |
yuriwho | surge at the end of the day friday is often institutional investors | 22:25 |
python476 | what's RougeRR ? | 22:25 |
LjL | i just got this in my Access Now newsletter about China censoring COVID things https://citizenlab.ca/2020/03/censored-contagion-how-information-on-the-coronavirus-is-managed-on-chinese-social-media/ | 22:26 |
twomoons | ahh ok yuri | 22:26 |
ubLIX | LjL: anyway, the reason I mentioned it is you've been struggling for explanation of Italy's numbers; perhaps the aforelinked paper contains a sketch of everything your authorities comparatively didn't do | 22:27 |
ubLIX | not that that's news; we all know practically nowhere in the western world can match China's measures | 22:27 |
yuriwho | twomoons: it's also rebalancing season | 22:28 |
LjL | ubLIX, well my main concern isn't about how quickly it's spreading (although it definitely is... but i kinda of just assumed that was inevitable), but how comparatively deadly it is, and perhaps even more importantly how comparatively, uhm, hospitalizable that is. apparently up to 50% of cases are ending up hospitalized. that used to be 15-20% elsewhere | 22:28 |
LjL | and the mortality rate goes up every time there's a data update now :\ | 22:28 |
tinwhiskers | weird | 22:28 |
ubLIX | LjL: you're talking specifically Italy, here? | 22:29 |
contingo | that percentage will go down as available hospital beds dry up | 22:29 |
LjL | ubLIX, yes, we are quite comparable to Korea, except 4.3% mortality rate in Italy, 0.7% in Korea | 22:29 |
LjL | contingo, yes, but i don't believe other countries hospitalized that much in the first place | 22:29 |
yuriwho | LjL: if we had age demographics data for hospitalized that would be meaningful in interpreting the data | 22:30 |
LjL | contingo, it also matches with a 10%ish ICU rate vs 5% general | 22:30 |
LjL | yuriwho, yes, if i had age data for patients and/or dead that would indeed be very helpful | 22:30 |
ubLIX | LjL: is your healthcare system already seeing worsening of care quality due to over demand? | 22:30 |
LjL | yuriwho, but instead TV just keeps us reassuring, as a mantra, that all dead were elderly and with other conditions | 22:30 |
contingo | there is something anomalous about the Italy stats | 22:30 |
LjL | ubLIX, yes | 22:30 |
LjL | contingo, what do you see? | 22:31 |
tinwhiskers | If the death rate has been consistently rising that makes me wonder if the method for calculating it is at fault, realted to the case:death delay thing. | 22:31 |
contingo | no I mean, I just agree with you, with your general stance of "why Italy" | 22:31 |
LjL | ah | 22:31 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, at first it was 3% then it went down to 2.5% then back up to 3%, and then... upwards | 22:32 |
LjL | but admittedly that was pretty early, that dip | 22:32 |
tinwhiskers | ah | 22:32 |
LjL | anyway i am not resolving a few names, including the medxriv one, so i need to reboot the router now | 22:32 |
LjL | see you in a minute | 22:32 |
contingo | if this was the ectoplasm in Ghostbusters II then I'd have a theory | 22:33 |
contingo | huh? | 22:47 |
LjL | well that was longer than a minute | 22:47 |
LjL | and only solved by using google's stinking nameserver's, eww | 22:47 |
tinwhiskers | 80+ years old 14.8%; 70-79 years old 8.0%; 60-69 years old 3.6%; 50-59 years old 1.3%; 40-49 years old 0.4%; 30-39 years old 0.2%; 20-29 years old 0.2%; 10-19 years old 0.2% | 22:47 |
Tobi[m] | children aren't affected here but can spread the virus | 22:47 |
tinwhiskers | then they have it | 22:47 |
LjL | any interesting data posted while i was slightly gone? | 22:48 |
Tobi[m] | <tinwhiskers "80+ years old 14.8%; 70-79 years"> yeah and if we see increasing numbers in 30-39 y/o then it will be worse | 22:48 |
ubLIX | children have less severe illness, or show no symptoms at all. but they are just as likely to become infected (reference available) | 22:48 |
tinwhiskers | that's what a motality rate means. Of people who have the virus, how many people die. In children, of those who get the virus, death is vanishly low. | 22:48 |
yuriwho | also, Italian families are close knit and the WHO says close contacts are most at risk | 22:49 |
ubLIX | LjL: did you get the paper? | 22:49 |
tinwhiskers | *vanishingly | 22:49 |
thebope | Has a single child even died yet? | 22:49 |
LjL | it looks like OpenNIC changed the way their nameservers works... and, their nameservers, at least the ones i was using | 22:49 |
LjL | ubLIX, yes, finally | 22:49 |
thebope | If a single child hasn't what about a married one? | 22:49 |
contingo | groan | 22:50 |
ubLIX | LjL: yanno, i could have just sent you paper if you'd asked :p | 22:50 |
thebope | lol | 22:50 |
contingo | quick, marry off all the kids | 22:50 |
LjL | ubLIX, that wouldn't have solved the fact my nameservers weren't working... i'm sure you are aware they're an important part of having a working internet :P | 22:50 |
ubLIX | what is this internet you speak of? | 22:50 |
thebope | Knowing Pence he'll embrace that policy | 22:50 |
LjL | ubLIX, i bet with all your paranoia, you're using google nameservers! | 22:51 |
ubLIX | isp's, or opendns, depending on mood | 22:51 |
ubLIX | sometimes opendns is faster than isp, and sometimes reaches things isp refuses to find | 22:52 |
LjL | actually... OpenNIC's anycast servers are what i was using, and they still do have the same IPs, so why wouldn't they be working >: | 22:52 |
LjL | ubLIX, i think when i researched opendns, i found it was slightly sketchy | 22:53 |
LjL | but i forget the details | 22:53 |
ubLIX | hmm, same. i too forget the details | 22:53 |
joatds[m] | <thebope "If a single child hasn't what ab"> thebope: as se know it, no child died from covid | 22:53 |
thebope | Yea that was my understanding too | 22:53 |
joatds[m] | I quoted wrong, sorry | 22:53 |
thebope | no worries | 22:54 |
tinwhiskers | Tobi[m]: I took the liberty of graphing the mortality in case it helps you to visualise it: https://imgur.com/a/QVeGSpJ | 22:54 |
tinwhiskers | That is not a U | 22:54 |
thebope | It's like the brim of an asteroid bearing down on earth | 22:55 |
LjL | ubLIX, OpenNIC seems more actually... open... but it's not the first time i've had problems with some of their servers | 22:55 |
ubLIX | LjL: you'll notice in some of the data that paradoxically some metrics improve after age 70, eg attack rate | 22:56 |
Tobi[m] | I know, as kids aren't effected much as they can spread it but don't build symptoms. Still, it's a U or part of a U. If we see a W, like the middle old ones 30-45 are effected that would mean the virus spread via multipe non-symptomatic vectors such as kids and others and that would be worst than the situation now | 22:57 |
contingo | oh my days | 22:57 |
tinwhiskers | just no | 22:57 |
ubLIX | LjL: which i can't fathom. i'll be reading this paper long after covid-19 is a memory trying to understand all of it | 22:58 |
Tobi[m] | As in a matter of fact, the elderly people die anyways in if it's because of corona or 3 months later because of some other disease is not really in the statistics so if it keeps that U-way, we won't recognise the effect much | 22:58 |
tinwhiskers | It's part of a U as in just the right-hand half of a U... | 22:58 |
Tobi[m] | not that much as if it's like W | 22:58 |
ubLIX | *if i'm still alive, that is | 22:58 |
tinwhiskers | Tobi[m]: stop the bullshit please. "die anyway in 3 months" | 22:59 |
Tobi[m] | <tinwhiskers "It's part of a U as in just the "> yeah that's what I meant. The death cases would be much more intense if we see people between 30-40 dying as much as elderly people, but that is in no way the case right now. We saw that with the spanish influenza in eht 20s and later I guess 78/79 with another influenza like pandemy | 23:00 |
Tobi[m] | but not with Vorona, at least not yet | 23:00 |
Tobi[m] | * but not with Corona, at least not yet | 23:00 |
contingo | I'm not tackling this one | 23:01 |
ryouma | i wonder if there is an index of public companies thought to correlate negatively or positively witht he outlook of the virus that we could track | 23:01 |
contingo | you'll find lots of that stuff on trading forums and chats | 23:02 |
tinwhiskers | ryouma: yes, this might be a good time for a new investor to get into the market. I was thinking of moving to shares. | 23:02 |
Tobi[m] | <tinwhiskers "Tobi: stop the bullshit please. "> it's about maths and statistics and not about single cases which are bad in any case of course. Just speacing from a mathmatical side | 23:02 |
tinwhiskers | :-p | 23:03 |
ryouma | i meant for prediction | 23:03 |
tinwhiskers | yeah, if you find something let me know :-) | 23:03 |
tinwhiskers | oh. I see | 23:03 |
LjL | "Further, in this group, 20% were asymptomatic at the time of first clinicalassessment and nearly 30% did not have fever. This is consistent with a reasonably high rate ofasymptomatic carriage, but less than suggested by some modeling studiesโ18โ, though PCR hasimperfect sensitivityโ20โ." | 23:03 |
tinwhiskers | sorry, I understand now | 23:03 |
LjL | maybe there is a middle ground between "no asymptomatics" and "there's asymptomatics ALL OVER THE PLACE" | 23:04 |
contingo | maybe! | 23:04 |
thebope | The cough is dry from corona virus though right? | 23:05 |
thebope | Cause I've got a productive cough, so I'm convinced I have no covid | 23:05 |
tinwhiskers | LjL: yes, but they do say that asymptomatic people mostly do end up being symptomatic at some stage (albeit possibly relatively minor symptoms) | 23:05 |
LjL | ubLIX, i also cannot understand much of the paper. but i've got to say, having read a few papers, i probably *really* should figure out what a simple convention that shows up all the time means... like "(OR=2.5, 95% CI 1.1, 6.1)", maybe it's not always this, but, lots of this. i assume 95% CI just means 95% confidence interval i.e. the standard but that's where my understanding ends | 23:05 |
ubLIX | tinwhiskers: the asymptomatics in LjL's quote were so because they were found by contact-tracing; they went on to develop a normal covid-19 course | 23:07 |
tinwhiskers | ah. I see | 23:07 |
ryouma | odds ratio | 23:07 |
ubLIX | OR=odds ratio | 23:07 |
ubLIX | CI=confidence interval | 23:07 |
LjL | so in that case "being male" OR=2.5 means if you're male, you are 2.5 more likely to whatever than if you're female, and... what is 1.1 and 6.1? | 23:08 |
ryouma | a dry cough means no sputum upon coughing? true/false | 23:08 |
LjL | ryouma, that's how i understand it | 23:08 |
tinwhiskers | to me a dry cough implies a kind of wheezy cough as well as being unproductive | 23:09 |
LjL | i've long had a "dry" cough where i have some very limited amount of sputum that actually needs to be you know... controlled, or else it actually gets the features that the latin word "sputum" entails | 23:10 |
LjL | but i've had this for much longer than COVID has been around | 23:10 |
ubLIX | a month ago i had an irresistible dry cough, fever, and general malaise that put my o2 sats down towards 90% for about a week | 23:11 |
ubLIX | i really wish this had been covid (i struggle to believe some immunity is not conferred) | 23:11 |
tinwhiskers | :-( | 23:11 |
ubLIX | but since the median recovery time for my age group is >30 days, i sadly suspect it was just a really bad cold or flu or something | 23:12 |
LjL | ubLIX, lol they call the virus different things at different times in the paper, unless i'm missing something... among which SAR-COV-3 and SARS-COV-19 | 23:12 |
ubLIX | lol, didn't notive | 23:13 |
ubLIX | *notice | 23:13 |
tinwhiskers | That seems very sloppy. Is this a peer reviewed paper? | 23:14 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, no, preprint, preliminary | 23:14 |
tinwhiskers | ah. ok | 23:14 |
LjL | not much time to peer review things yet | 23:14 |
tinwhiskers | fair | 23:14 |
LjL | whoever thinks the Guardian feed is useful, raise your hands | 23:17 |
LjL | <Brainstorm> New from r/WorldNews at 20:39 UTC: worldnews: The U.S. has the world's highest coronavirus death rate at more than 5% - a number that reflects the country's lack of testing โ from r/WorldNews at 20:39: Livethread: Global COVID-19 outbreak โ https://is.gd/ehHrUL | 23:19 |
aradesh | dunno | 23:19 |
aradesh | does anyone know people who have got coronavirus yet? | 23:19 |
LjL | ... also it reflects the fact they just started having (tested) cases at all? | 23:19 |
LjL | aradesh, i know someone who has met someone who had coronavirus | 23:19 |
LjL | aradesh, luckily she's negative, considering she's also met me | 23:20 |
aradesh | ah | 23:20 |
tinwhiskers | aradesh: I haven't heard of anyone here with it yet | 23:20 |
tinwhiskers | a few people have some similar symptoms though | 23:20 |
LjL | okay maybe i can give another go at why the heck the bot's posting random numbers now | 23:20 |
contingo | it's straightforward... OR=2.5, 95% CI 1.1, 6.1. Informally, OR=2.5 means the investigated outcome / effect is 2.5 times more likely than the control/placebo/untreated/contrasted treatment or whatever. 95% CI 1.1, 6.1 means that, assuming some probability distribution with params estimated from the data, it's 95% likely the true value of OR lies between 1.1 and 6.1 | 23:21 |
aradesh | what's the command for victim counts? | 23:21 |
LjL | %covid UK | 23:21 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In UK, there are 164 cases, 2 deaths (1.2% of cases), 18 recoveries as of Fri Mar 6 22:49:00 2020. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=UK for time series data. | 23:21 |
Brainstorm | LjL: Mortality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.4% (assuming deaths/cases with โ of cases undetected), and less than 9.5% (considering only deaths and recoveries). | 23:21 |
aradesh | i bet a lot of people don't identify themselves as being sick | 23:22 |
LjL | contingo, ah, got it | 23:22 |
LjL | aradesh, hey are you telling people what they need to identify as | 23:22 |
aradesh | :P | 23:22 |
BruntLIVE | farting can spread corona? is that true, ass air? | 23:23 |
tinwhiskers | aradesh: apparently most people with the virus will get some symptoms but they could be fairly minor; just like a dry cold, so yeah, you're probably right. | 23:24 |
ryouma | the problem presumably being that those who are in the less vulnerable group will congregate more, care less, and spread tot hose who are more vulnerable. | 23:24 |
tinwhiskers | yeah, that seems fair. bloody teens | 23:25 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit WorldNews Live at 22:25 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: First case in Oklahoma, USA. National confirmed cases, 275 โ https://is.gd/k1NHnK | 23:25 |
aradesh | guy sat next to me on the train today, and he was sniffling the whole time -.- | 23:26 |
ryouma | that is a not a symptom i've seen listed | 23:27 |
tinwhiskers | aradesh: that's more likely to just be a cold | 23:27 |
contingocat | i would've sprayed him down just to be sure | 23:28 |
tinwhiskers | covid-19 common symptoms: cough (usually dry), shortness of breath, breathing difficulties, fever. | 23:28 |
aradesh | tinwhiskers: why's that? | 23:28 |
aradesh | okay | 23:28 |
tinwhiskers | runny nose isn't a common symptom | 23:28 |
aradesh | phew. | 23:29 |
aradesh | i'm probably gonna get it at some point though aren't i? :/ being a regular train commuter. | 23:29 |
tinwhiskers | yeah, probably | 23:29 |
tinwhiskers | you really want to work hard at delaying that as long as possible though so don't give in just because it may be inevitable. | 23:30 |
thebope | Yea I gots a cold | 23:30 |
aradesh | tinwhiskers: how can i do that? | 23:30 |
contingocat | aradesh are you fit and healthy right now? | 23:31 |
aradesh | are there any decent masks? | 23:31 |
thebope | Wash your hands, don't touch your face is your best bet aradesh | 23:31 |
aradesh | contingocat: yes | 23:31 |
thebope | Masks aren't helpful for the healthy really | 23:31 |
thebope | Don't buy them unless you get sick | 23:31 |
aradesh | i have been washing my hands a lot | 23:31 |
contingocat | seems the majority of people in here have at least a cold | 23:31 |
aradesh | and trying not to touch my face | 23:31 |
thebope | lol contingocat | 23:31 |
contingocat | so you are already doing well | 23:31 |
thebope | We're like warming up for covid | 23:32 |
tinwhiskers | it's important for the community in general that you avoid getting it even if you're in an age group that is likely to suffer few severe symptoms | 23:32 |
thebope | Yea exactly | 23:32 |
thebope | Being a spreader is a shit thing | 23:32 |
aradesh | so just wash my hands thoroughly, and never touch my face? | 23:32 |
LjL | okay i'm actually giving up with fixing the bot for the time being... i know there's some glaring logic issue with the way i'm handling "non-priority" updates, but it's one of those times when the more i look at my for loops the more i get almost a sense of vertigo in my stomach. i wish my brain worked. | 23:32 |
thebope | Don't want to end up killing Grandma who's also on the train | 23:32 |
aradesh | that'll help? :) | 23:32 |
thebope | That will help a lot | 23:32 |
aradesh | i thought mostly you got these things from the air | 23:32 |
aradesh | people sneezing and such | 23:32 |
LjL | i think for now i'm making it back into just, post updates whenever they come | 23:32 |
LjL | sorry mefistofeles ;( | 23:32 |
thebope | Oh yea, move away from people coughing | 23:32 |
thebope | That's another big thing you can do aradesh | 23:33 |
tinwhiskers | LjL: well, I could just reduce my updates to every 30 mins again | 23:33 |
aradesh | so run away from coughing people | 23:33 |
thebope | It requires actual molecules to like land on your face and more porous areas | 23:33 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, nah it's not that | 23:33 |
thebope | aradesh: Run is a stroung word I think 6 ft is recommended | 23:33 |
thebope | But can't infect you by landing on your skin | 23:33 |
aradesh | those muslim women in their hijab's are gonna be laughing at us | 23:34 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, actually keep them frequent please, or trying to fix this later will be hopeless, if i have to wait 30 minutes to confirm it's doing what i think it should be doing | 23:34 |
aradesh | i've been washing my hands so much, the skin is getting kind of raw... | 23:34 |
contingocat | virions to land on your mucosa | 23:34 |
tinwhiskers | LjL: ok | 23:34 |
tinwhiskers | aradesh: that is doing you more harm than good then. If you damage your skin you *may* get it from hand contact alone. | 23:35 |
aradesh | it's the combination of the cold weather, and washing the moisture off my hands | 23:36 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, if it gets in through the hand will it actually reach your respiratory system though? | 23:36 |
contingocat | you can moisturize afterwards | 23:36 |
tinwhiskers | you should try to fix that somehow. moisturiser? | 23:36 |
LjL | aradesh, get aloe gel or some other thing like that, use it often | 23:36 |
ryouma | 15:31 <thebope> Don't buy them unless you get sick --- i'd add to this that if you get sick, you want surgical or non-valve masks. the n95 with valve is goign to directly sohot the virus out | 23:36 |
aradesh | i've got some nivea creame | 23:36 |
aradesh | cream | 23:37 |
aradesh | somewhere... | 23:37 |
aradesh | and some calamine lotion | 23:37 |
tinwhiskers | LjL: that's a good point. If it gets to your eye you will become infected. The virus still infects you systemically but the symptoms show up in the lungs, is what I understood. | 23:37 |
LjL | aradesh, i think the idea that you "mostly" get it from people sneezing and such is flawed, and is at this point more of a way to encourage people to keep distance and hygiene than anything. i suspect aerosol and surface contacts are very important vectors. that said i'm not a doctor or a researcher, but i've actually seen (preliminary, not-yet-peer-reviewed, what-have-you) studies that say these things... | 23:38 |
ryouma | what was the price of a box of 10 n95 before all this occurred? | 23:38 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, that makes me feel very good about the hypothetical continued presence of the virus in the body even after "recovery"... even outside of the issue of lung fibroris alone. | 23:38 |
tinwhiskers | I mentioned the skin damage thing because I read it somewhere that damaged skin could allow infection but i can't be sure that was specifically for covid-19 | 23:39 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit WorldNews Live at 22:37 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: 8 new cases and 1 new death in Iraq, total 40 confirmed cases and 4 deaths โ https://is.gd/q4W0ON | 23:39 |
LjL | ryouma, i know i could buy ten of them for โฌ30-40 on eBay while this was occurring, but not yet *this* bad. now it's โฌ130 at my pharmacy, and they're the few who have some | 23:39 |
ryouma | LjL: idgi. you say sneezing and such and then you say aerosol. what is the difference? | 23:39 |
tinwhiskers | err... SARS-COV-2 | 23:39 |
aradesh | i have this habit of covering my mouth/nose with my hand while i'm thinking | 23:39 |
aradesh | i need to get out of that habit :p | 23:39 |
LjL | ryouma, sneezing and such are droplets that fall down to the ground within about 2 meters. aerosol is when stuff lingers around in the air for an indefinite amount of time (also, potentially gets into air circulation systems) | 23:40 |
ryouma | what causes aerosol? | 23:40 |
LjL | air, and water | 23:40 |
LjL | what causes *viruses* to be viable in aerosol, i don't know | 23:40 |
LjL | but some can be | 23:40 |
tinwhiskers | aerosol is just very small droplets | 23:40 |
LjL | aradesh, i've seen a couple of articles with "tips" on how to teach yourself not to touch your face. not sure if great tips though. | 23:40 |
LjL | aradesh, you'll find some if you google | 23:41 |
LjL | aradesh, honestly i think in hindsight we should have started practicing new hygiene techniques that are aren't very used to as soon as the outbreak started looking big in China | 23:41 |
LjL | it's not easy to learn new habits quickly *and* while distressed | 23:41 |
tinwhiskers | the problem is it's really hard to stop old habits without some sort of replacement. I suggest touching your balls instead. It's worked for me. | 23:42 |
aradesh | lol | 23:42 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, what if i already do that *and* touch my face too | 23:43 |
tinwhiskers | I wish it were that easy... I've come to realise just how much I touch my face. | 23:43 |
aradesh | i'm not sure that would go down well at work | 23:43 |
tinwhiskers | heh | 23:43 |
LjL | aradesh, what do you mean by "down well" | 23:43 |
aradesh | xD | 23:43 |
contingocat | i'm sure there's an arudino solution to this. Rings, proximity sensors, electric shock reinforcement | 23:44 |
aradesh | does the same logic apply for avoiding catchingg ordinary colds too? | 23:44 |
thebope | Yes | 23:44 |
thebope | Washing your hands and not touching your face is associated with a five times decrease in respiratory illnesses I believe | 23:45 |
aradesh | interesting | 23:45 |
LjL | contingocat, or you could devise something that gives you a very bad disease if you ever touch your face. that ought to be a strong dissuasive system... more than electric shocks, some people are into that | 23:45 |
aradesh | lol | 23:45 |
aradesh | LjL: i hear he was working on something like that in a lab in china | 23:45 |
LjL | aradesh, i heard similar, except the lab was near some snacks machine somewhere in England | 23:46 |
tinwhiskers | There is a desktop application that tells you off when you touch your face | 23:46 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, now that's a Novel idea | 23:46 |
LjL | does it have a Linux version | 23:46 |
contingocat | well just a neutral thing | 23:46 |
aradesh | i'm worried if my dad gets it. he has breathing problems already from having had pulmonary embolisms in the past | 23:47 |
LjL | aradesh, yeah, that makes... a few of us, so far as i've gathered | 23:47 |
tinwhiskers | I don't know. I was just on my phone when I went to the page and it told me to use a desktop instead so I didn't actually see anything more about it | 23:47 |
aradesh | LjL: with parents with breathing issues? | 23:47 |
LjL | aradesh, is your dad stubborn as hell too and won't follow any of the "stay home for christ's sake" advice you're going to give him? | 23:47 |
aradesh | LjL: totally | 23:47 |
LjL | aradesh, yes, or just elderly and otherwise at risk | 23:47 |
aradesh | he's a nightmare | 23:47 |
LjL | aradesh, okay, here's your card, you're a full member | 23:48 |
aradesh | ^^ | 23:48 |
contingocat | I'm lucky, my mother followed my advice and didn't take her plane flight into the English winter | 23:48 |
LjL | aradesh, my parents started taking a *bit* more seriously instead of "good lord this silly hypochondriac will both annoy and scare the hell out of us for no reason" when i told them that the WHO had said people older than 60 should stay home, and they ignored me, and then three days later our government told them the same thing | 23:49 |
LjL | i'm not saying they had a full "okay you told us so" moment but the closest imaginable | 23:49 |
aradesh | hehe | 23:49 |
LjL | one thing of note in my opinion: allegedly (i.e. based on the Russian guy's video), in China elevators are considered some of the places most at risk. that's put down to all the button pressing, so they now provide tissues, or, apparently, toothpicks for the purpose | 23:50 |
LjL | but what if the main issue with elevators is virus-laden aerosol never really dispersing? | 23:50 |
tinwhiskers | LjL: do you the link to that video? | 23:51 |
tinwhiskers | +have | 23:52 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1yXTlvTB08 | 23:52 |
tinwhiskers | ta | 23:52 |
ryouma | so they ignore the who but listen to their gov? | 23:52 |
tinwhiskers | Oh, right. I saw a bit of that already. | 23:53 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, you'll find the elevator part here https://youtu.be/A1yXTlvTB08?t=682 | 23:53 |
tinwhiskers | Ah, yes. I stopped it when the overly dramatic music came on | 23:53 |
LjL | hehe | 23:54 |
LjL | well he's a vlogger | 23:54 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit WorldNews Live at 22:42 UTC: /u/BlatantConservative: First non cruise liner case in Nebraska, USA, national total 276 โ https://is.gd/Ht2hQl | 23:55 |
LjL | ryouma, no they just ignore *me* i believe... i mean, i'm guessing here, but i suspect if they just saw the director of the WHO on TV saying it, they'd have heeded it. only problem there is the language barrier | 23:55 |
contingocat | good grief | 23:56 |
ryouma | there's a problem with human being where authority matters more than anything else | 23:56 |
ryouma | a generic problem | 23:56 |
contingocat | that is full on apocalypse music | 23:56 |
lapsang | ryouma nah that's humanity as we evolved. | 23:56 |
ryouma | that is what i am saying | 23:56 |
LjL | contingocat, it's a bit dramatic, but i guess that's the point | 23:56 |
lapsang | Those of us who transcend Authoritarian worship are in the minority | 23:57 |
contingocat | it leaves no room for when things get into full swing | 23:57 |
lapsang | technically speaking, WE are the problem. | 23:57 |
python476 | so very true | 23:57 |
lapsang | https://www.theauthoritarians.org/ | 23:57 |
python476 | fractally so lapsang | 23:58 |
ryouma | lapsang: yeah i like that book. i don't trust social science to know what it is doing, but it seems like it describes real differences. | 23:58 |
lapsang | surely you're aware that neurology agrees | 23:59 |
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