| tinwhiskers | :-/ | 00:00 |
|---|---|---|
| mefistofeles | what? xD | 00:00 |
| LjL | mefistofeles, that 99% figure is based on a 1% death rate. and of course, when you put it the "half-full glass way" (i.e. 99% are going to be fine), it is reassuring. hell, they even said "the majority of patients will have mild symptoms and can stay at home" as something reassuring, back when the common understanding was "20% of patients will have serious symptoms that will take them to hospital for a period", and when you say THAT, suddenly it's a lot | 00:01 |
| LjL | scarier | 00:01 |
| stinkpot | ljl do you think that what you described is a type of confirmation bias? | 00:01 |
| LjL | add to that that many people who are probably going to be fine, by the time they test positive, will probably have met people like their parents or grandparents, and there comes the fear, pain, and possible death | 00:01 |
| LjL | stinkpot, no, but i just said i can't remember the names of those :P | 00:02 |
| stinkpot | =P | 00:02 |
| sternenmusik[m] | <LjL "mefistofeles, "99% of people exp"> Not true, when you need to go to hospital you have very limited chance to, survive. | 00:02 |
| LjL | sternenmusik[m], uh, no, you don't | 00:03 |
| stinkpot | i should study cognitive biases | 00:03 |
| tinwhiskers | sternenmusik[m]: overall, not just hospital cases | 00:03 |
| LjL | hospital is not ICU | 00:03 |
| mefistofeles | sternenmusik[m]: I'm quoting what NYC ICUs doctors say, so I don't see why we shouldn't believe that | 00:03 |
| Arsanerit | stay safe people | 00:03 |
| LjL | mefistofeles, he's quoting me, not you | 00:03 |
| mefistofeles | and yes, those ending in ICUs ventilators will likely die | 00:03 |
| sternenmusik[m] | Whats a ICU? | 00:04 |
| LjL | jesus matrix replies | 00:04 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: oh, misread | 00:04 |
| mefistofeles | matrix thing xD | 00:04 |
| LjL | sternenmusik[m], you're here telling our percentages are wrong and you don't know what an ICU is? | 00:04 |
| tinwhiskers | ICU = intensive care unit | 00:04 |
| LjL | google it up please | 00:04 |
| LjL | look up what a ventilator is also | 00:04 |
| LjL | and how it differs from providing oxygen, while you're at that | 00:04 |
| sternenmusik[m] | Dont try to let me look stupid | 00:04 |
| mefistofeles | apparently airports can provide a lot of medical grade oxygen tanks | 00:05 |
| tinwhiskers | it's something like 50% of people who are intubated will die. | 00:05 |
| LjL | sternenmusik[m], *I* am not doing that. | 00:05 |
| sternenmusik[m] | <LjL "sternenmusik, *I* am not doing t"> Good | 00:05 |
| tinwhiskers | but the overall case fatality rate is about 1% so "99% of people will be ok". | 00:05 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, but i find a bit of a cheap way to appease the public to state it that way. we all know that 1% mortality, if this reaches pretty much the entire population, will be quite a catastrophe | 00:06 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah | 00:06 |
| sternenmusik[m] | <tinwhiskers "but the overall case fatality ra"> Ok is relative, we have for example men here who end up impotent thats not really "ok". | 00:07 |
| LjL | yeah we also don't really know about any long-term effects yet | 00:07 |
| tinwhiskers | sternenmusik[m]: well, I'm not disagreeing with you, but that is what is implied by the doctor's comment | 00:07 |
| LjL | so yes that's also a good reason not to say that 99% will be "okay" | 00:07 |
| LjL | unless "okay" has a very low bar | 00:07 |
| LjL | ("alive") | 00:07 |
| tinwhiskers | 1% is probably not far off including later complications if the immediate CFR is something like 0.8 as a lot of people are suggesting | 00:08 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, well the small German town study that shows 14% of the population have antibodies would have the CFR at 0.37% (from memory). but that mini-study has already been criticized, and besides, they have indeed only published a mini-report | 00:09 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah | 00:09 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, plus, Germany has an unusually low apparent death rate, so the findings may not replicate to other countries, especially those that have less than half the ICU beds as Germany, which is... uhm... all of them, roughly? | 00:09 |
| tinwhiskers | that CFR is only 4 times that of influenza, which doesn't quite seem to stack up | 00:09 |
| ketas | intensive care unit... like mother? | 00:10 |
| ketas | :) | 00:10 |
| mefistofeles | Iceland show 0.47% but it still has active cases of course | 00:10 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, plus, the other part of the study, the one that says *only* 14% have antibodies, is not good news, if that was like the hardest-hit town they could get their hands on | 00:10 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah, but there's still plenty of time for more than 14% of people to get infected :-) | 00:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 22:04 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus US live: Trump heralds disaster declarations in all 50 states and says US is 'winning' → https://is.gd/Uv6E0J | 00:11 |
| tinwhiskers | oh, I see. They were hoping it would be much higher. | 00:12 |
| sternenmusik[m] | In "perfect" conditions we talk about 0,8 - 1,2 %, as soon as parameters hygienic conditions, Virus concentration and supply structure detoriate more people die. | 00:12 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah, more reason to not give credit to those people saying the disease is widespread throughout the population. | 00:12 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, i don't know about them, but i was kind of hoping that (though i never believed it) | 00:12 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, i don't often wish to be proven wrong but this time tends to be one of those | 00:13 |
| tinwhiskers | any random test results from Italy yet LjL? | 00:13 |
| ketas | the nuclear explosion i've been waiting for has not happened | 00:13 |
| ketas | still | 00:13 |
| sternenmusik[m] | Its not widespread otherwise we would have anarchy already. | 00:13 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, no, and no word about antibody test validation in today's press conference... but there's still the stuff that was done in Veneto, which is not random sampling, but they did PCR every single person in a cluster with 3000 people | 00:14 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, and now they're using antibody tests that are not validated by the government, but i don't know where (if anywhere) to see the results of those | 00:14 |
| LjL | sternenmusik[m], widespread asymptomatically, the idea was, clearly | 00:14 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah, sampling everyone in a cluster is not going to give an indication of general prevalence of course | 00:14 |
| tinwhiskers | but pcr can only do instantaneous prevalence anyway. we need the antibody tests | 00:15 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, no but about as close as we get so far, aside from iceland and that german town (and i think china did something too) | 00:15 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, they PCR'd everybody twice, but, yeah | 00:15 |
| stinkpot | hehe | 00:16 |
| LjL | i should probably call it Venetia since that was the historical name in english but that gets confusing | 00:16 |
| sternenmusik[m] | <LjL "sternenmusik, widespread asympto"> Need some sleep. | 00:17 |
| sternenmusik[m] | Take care of us! | 00:17 |
| LjL | nothing much on Veneto's website methinks | 00:18 |
| stinkpot | nobody really knows about Venetia | 00:19 |
| stinkpot | they would think it's a diminutive name for Venice | 00:19 |
| LjL | except anyone who remembers studying about the kingdom of Lombardy-Venetia in school, which was a part of Austria-Hungary | 00:19 |
| stinkpot | especially with the tendency to pronounce the 'tia' as 'sha' or 'sya' | 00:20 |
| mefistofeles | https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.987222v1 ooh nice | 00:27 |
| mefistofeles | this deletion apparently makes it less virulent | 00:27 |
| mefistofeles | of course, it's a specific strain/arm | 00:27 |
| mefistofeles | but nice to see these things happening | 00:27 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 22:19 UTC: Coronavirus live news: Pope gives Easter mass by live stream as global death toll passes 110,000: Jordan, Italy, India, Saudi Arabia, Puerto Rico extend lockdown; Britain pledges £200m to WHO; partner of Julian Assange calls for prison release → https://is.gd/5DqUwq | 00:28 |
| stinkpot | i'm becoming more religious because of the virus mefistofeles | 00:29 |
| stinkpot | we should start praying more | 00:29 |
| mefistofeles | stinkpot: wahtever works for you XD | 00:31 |
| stinkpot | mefistofeles: let's pray together over irc | 00:32 |
| mefistofeles | praying and religion have commonly good relaxing psychological effects | 00:32 |
| sternenmusik[m] | Can't breath properly and my stomach does sound terrible. | 00:32 |
| tinwhiskers | mefistofeles: interesting | 00:32 |
| mefistofeles | stinkpot: I don't pray | 00:32 |
| ketas | i need scientific proof of supernaturality | 00:33 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Kentucky church fills Easter service to near capacity, while cops wait in parking lot with 14-day quarantines for all. (11105 votes) | https://redd.it/g03smi | 00:39 |
| LjL | morons | 00:39 |
| stinkpot | we need to be more christian now | 00:39 |
| stinkpot | science isn't helping us solve coronavirus | 00:40 |
| LjL | okay i'll be ten times as christian as i was before then | 00:40 |
| nixonix | 10*0 ? | 00:41 |
| LjL | mhm | 00:41 |
| tinwhiskers | science isn't helping? | 00:42 |
| tinwhiskers | I'll just assume you're joking | 00:42 |
| stinkpot | can't say science has helped until we have that vax | 00:42 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, clearly gathering in in a crowded church is helping a lot if cops are waiting outside with a quarantine order for everybody. it removes a number of morons from the streets. | 00:42 |
| stinkpot | oh yeah, repurposing an anti-malaria drug is so helpful! thanks science! | 00:43 |
| tinwhiskers | stinkpot: so all the drugs that are being trialled, the pcr tests, antibody tests, modelling, etc. Not related to science? | 00:43 |
| tinwhiskers | none of the modelling that informed out management decisions are science? | 00:44 |
| stinkpot | coronavirus tests with poor accuracy...hmm....i'm no longer sure those are that helpful | 00:44 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, i wouldn't take most of the management decisions forward as a compelling point in favor of... anything ;( | 00:44 |
| tinwhiskers | seriously? I guess you're both joking | 00:45 |
| stinkpot | repurposing an ebola drug was helpful | 00:45 |
| stinkpot | the main reason we turned to chloroquine was because it was cheap! | 00:45 |
| tinwhiskers | ffs | 00:45 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, decent management decisions would have involved lockdowns and fast building of ICUs and new beds WELL BEFORE we had outbreaks in Europe | 00:45 |
| stinkpot | i'm partially joking | 00:45 |
| LjL | so whether or not those were informed by science, the decisions from the deciders were mostly moronic | 00:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 22:35 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Australia coronavirus live: NSW brings in $440m rent relief package as national death toll reaches 59 – latest updates → https://is.gd/DSf8W7 | 00:45 |
| LjL | and i hope (but do not believe) the people in charge will be made to answer for it at some point | 00:46 |
| stinkpot | i see what ljl is saying | 00:46 |
| rajrajraj | Hi | 00:47 |
| LjL | i've also heard too many supposed experts on TV, flouting various medical degrees, saying opposite things from one another, only causing FUD in people... just so that they could also later blame people for believing more in social media and fake news than in the scientists. i do not believe most scientists are guilty of this, but ones that were prominent in our media have been. that is shameful, and they should be shamed. | 00:49 |
| nixonix | https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/france-s-president-fueling-hype-over-unproven-coronavirus-treatment | 00:50 |
| nixonix | %title | 00:50 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.sciencemag.org: Is France’s president fueling the hype over an unproven coronavirus treatment? | Science | AAAS | 00:50 |
| LjL | yeah this is a good example stinkpot, a lot of *politicians* are talking about (hydro)chloroquine, while early *scientific* studies have given mixed results, and some important risks, that should make one cautious | 00:56 |
| LjL | so don't confuse science with politics | 00:57 |
| LjL | and when scientists start doing politics, maybe that's when you should treat them as politicians and no longer scientists, i guess | 00:57 |
| stinkpot | i think the choice of chloroquine early on as a drug to get behind on a country-wide basis had something to do with cost. governments didn't want to get behind an expensive or hard to produce drug | 00:58 |
| stinkpot | they probably looked through a field of cheap drugs and determined that of those chloroquine was one that helped | 00:59 |
| LjL | but it had barely had any evidence of working. it had been used as a compassionate treatment, which means doctors give it to patients who are dying because they have a vague intuition it may work, but it's explicitly *not* scientifically validated | 00:59 |
| stinkpot | again just my guess, take everything i say with grains of salt | 00:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 22:54 UTC: Coronavirus latest: at a glance: A summary of the biggest developments in the global coronavirus outbreak → https://is.gd/663352 | 01:03 |
| tinwhiskers | https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/11/the-latest-hydroxychloroquine-data-as-of-april-11 "concludes that short-term HCQ monotherapy does appear to be safe, but notes that long-term HCQ dosing is indeed tied to increased cardiovascular mortality."... "Worryingly, significant risks are identified for combination users of HCQ+AZM even in the short-term as proposed for COVID19 management, with a 15-20% increased risk of | 01:05 |
| tinwhiskers | angina/chest pain and heart failure, and a two-fold risk of cardiovascular mortality in the first month of treatment." | 01:05 |
| tinwhiskers | the HCQ-AZM dual therapy is the one being recommended and is apparently a bit risky for covid-19 patients even though it is safe in general. This is why we do the trials. | 01:06 |
| mefistofeles | btw, great graphics here https://viralzone.expasy.org/ | 01:09 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Boris Johnson discharged from hospital (10009 votes) | https://redd.it/fzw139 | 01:09 |
| tinwhiskers | As for the choice of using HCQ in china it may be that doctors noticed that those on the drug were recovering better than others. I doubt the decision was based on cost. They also tried a range of expensive antivirals but didn't have much luck. | 01:09 |
| nixonix | "The paper mentions that chloroquine and HCQ have been mandated as the standard therapy in Brazil, so there is no way to run a control group" | 01:11 |
| tinwhiskers | nixonix: some people feel it is unethical to not provide the treatment because they believe so strongly it works. | 01:12 |
| nixonix | https://nypost.com/2020/04/10/two-thirds-of-coronavirus-patients-improve-after-using-remdesivir-study/ | 01:13 |
| nixonix | %title | 01:13 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From nypost.com: Two-thirds of coronavirus patients improve after using remdesivir: study | 01:13 |
| nixonix | theres link to paper published in nejm, in that article | 01:13 |
| tinwhiskers | Yes, so Derek Lowe discusses that paper in "pipeline" as well: https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/11/what-do-the-new-remdesivir-data-mean | 01:14 |
| tinwhiskers | That’s pretty much it – those are the numbers we have. The study did not even collect viral-load data, so we can’t say what that was like or if it correlated with clinical outcome. What do they tell us? Not much, because this (like so many others early in this epidemic) is not a controlled study. | 01:15 |
| nixonix | maybe i should make a letter in case im unconscious: "DONT use (hydroxy)chloroquine. use remdesir and eidd-2801, unless somthing better through clinical trials have appeared" | 01:15 |
| nixonix | remdesivir* | 01:15 |
| tinwhiskers | at this stage I'd say HCQ is more promising. Why would you take it upon yourself to give that medical advice? | 01:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 23:09 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus US: Trump heralds disaster declarations in all 50 states and says US is 'winning' – as it happened → https://is.gd/Uv6E0J | 01:20 |
| nixonix | the problem with remdesivir is, virus may evolve resistent to it. thats why also eidd-2801, if available | 01:20 |
| nixonix | when hcq doesnt look promising at all | 01:20 |
| nixonix | i think that pipeline refers to other experiences than that in scottland, 53 patients total | 01:22 |
| tinwhiskers | I'm not sure how you reached that conclusion. The results are a bit variable but favourable. | 01:22 |
| tinwhiskers | ^ HCQ, that is | 01:22 |
| Hoogvlieger | Free New York Times account. See: https://www.nytimes.com/news-event/coronavirus | 01:23 |
| nixonix | 6/30 in ventilators died from those mentioned in pipeline. thats 20%. still small sample, but i have heard percentages between 50-80% or so, fatality rate in ventilator | 01:24 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah | 01:24 |
| nixonix | with remdesivir | 01:24 |
| tinwhiskers | HCQ: "1061 patients treated for at least 3 days with their hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin combination, with followup of at least 9 days. It includes the statement “98% of patients cured so far” and says also “No cardiac toxicity was observed”, and also says that mortality figures were improved in these patients as compared with others receiving standard-of-care without such treatment" - that's fairly promising, no? | 01:26 |
| nixonix | no that nejm article had patients in several places, not only in scottland i think i read frome some other article.. but the total was 61 | 01:26 |
| tinwhiskers | ok | 01:27 |
| LjL | there is definitely an ethical dilemma with compassionate use wrt trials... if you decide to run trials, you pretty much have to stop compassionate use | 01:27 |
| nixonix | depends on patients. how was it with those in ventilators? (hcq) | 01:27 |
| LjL | most people, if confronted with the choice of 1) get a drugs 2) get maybe the drug, maybe a placebo, will choose #1 | 01:27 |
| LjL | even though #1 may make them worse, we don't know that, hence trials... but that's still the human behavior to be expected | 01:28 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah | 01:28 |
| tinwhiskers | However I'm sure there are still a lot of places that are not offering HCQ for compassionate use so in those places the normal care is the control and that care + HCQ is in addition and not such an ethical problem. | 01:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 23:24 UTC: Coronavirus live news: Pope gives Easter mass by live stream as global death toll passes 110,000: Jordan, Italy, India, Saudi Arabia, Puerto Rico extend lockdown; Britain pledges £200m to WHO; partner of Julian Assange calls for prison release → https://is.gd/5DqUwq | 01:37 |
| nixonix | Raoult has not released the raw data from the trial, which, remarkably, was not double-blinded. According to Dominique Costagliola, chief epidemiologist at the Pasteur Institute, the trial was so slapdash that “it is impossible to interpret the described result as being attributable to the hydroxychloroquine treatment.” | 01:40 |
| nixonix | i dont know, but heres the article link: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/03/didier-raoult-hydroxychloroquine-plaquenil.html | 01:40 |
| tilikum | when is it projected for the quarantine to be safe to end in ohio, usa | 01:41 |
| tilikum | and when will it be safe you think for somenoe to fly from texas to ohio | 01:42 |
| nixonix | The first included only 42 patients, and Raoult chose who received the drug or a placebo, a no-no in clinical research; the International Society of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy has distanced itself from the paper, published in the society’s International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents. The second study, published as a preprint without peer review, didn’t have a control group at all. | 01:53 |
| nixonix | and the rest seems to be just raoult's claims | 01:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 23:40 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Australia coronavirus live: NSW brings in $440m rent relief package as national death toll reaches 59 – latest updates → https://is.gd/DSf8W7 | 01:54 |
| LjL | lol, choosing who gets a placebo | 02:00 |
| nixonix | read the comments from that pipeline article. not sure about credibility of them, but still interesting. (i read only small portion) | 02:02 |
| nixonix | but im sure we will hear a lot about this mess in france, during the following weeks | 02:03 |
| LjL | now i'm also hearing something about anticoagulants being a panacea | 02:06 |
| LjL | which i guess is the thing about coagulation which i failed to understand/translate properly in today's press conference | 02:07 |
| LjL | i have this | 02:07 |
| LjL | Q: A question for Richeldi: some newspapers mentioned an opinion by an anatomopathologist, [something about COVID-19 causing coagulation in the lungs and a drug to stop it] can we believe this? | 02:07 |
| LjL | A: This news comes from the fact there have been the first autopsies. The findings are common in many pneumonias. We don't know yet if coagulation phenomena are more common with this virus. I encourage everyone to visit AIFA's site, where they analyze the data that have emerges and recommends and encourages submitting studies on this. Let's trust the scientific method. Anti-coagulants could be used, their usefulness is plausible, but it requires evidence. | 02:07 |
| LjL | and then i was shown this https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fbuongiornonews.it%2Fcoronavirus-una-speranza-dalla-scoperta-del-prof-giannini%2F | 02:08 |
| LjL | the way this thing is written rings all sorts of alarm bells for me, but i'm just saying | 02:09 |
| LjL | together with that i was shown supposedly related French results... in French... a very long PDF, not going to analyze now | 02:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 00:00 UTC: Coronavirus live news: Pope gives Easter mass by live stream as global death toll passes 110,000: Jordan, Italy, India, Saudi Arabia, Puerto Rico extend lockdown; Britain pledges £200m to WHO; partner of Julian Assange calls for prison release → https://is.gd/5DqUwq | 02:11 |
| nixonix | one line of therapeutic drugs is to reduce lung damage. i cant remember drugs, but one of them i recently came by was NK-1 by Vanda pharmaceuticals | 02:11 |
| nixonix | kevzara and actemra were some of those | 02:19 |
| adventurer | I hear people on facebook writing rants how their elderly sick father couldn't get tested despite a temp, symptoms and possible content and then the release from the government how newly diagnosed numbers have gone right down. | 02:24 |
| cyphase | ooh, JHU got some new types of info | 02:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 00:11 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Australia coronavirus live: NSW brings in $440m rent relief package as national death toll reaches 59 – latest updates → https://is.gd/DSf8W7 | 02:28 |
| JyrkiK | adventurer: sadly the secret govt meetings breed conspiracy | 02:30 |
| JyrkiK | https://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/f4z9i9/event_201_and_its_relation_to_the_coronavirus/ strange coincidence? | 02:34 |
| LjL | i feel i should be saying we don't do conspiracy theories here but i can't even make myself disagree with the rant about Twitter and Youtube and fake news | 02:41 |
| JyrkiK | at least alex jones app apparently isn't in 'the store' anymore finally | 02:42 |
| JyrkiK | https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/resources | 02:48 |
| PlanckWalk | adventurer: Yep, still testing only returned travellers and close contacts of known cases across most of Australia. | 02:55 |
| PlanckWalk | (And there are almost no returned travellers now) | 02:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 00:42 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Australia coronavirus live news: NSW announces $440m rent relief package as Tasmania closes two hospitals – latest updates → https://is.gd/DSf8W7 | 03:03 |
| stinkpot | if there are multiple underlying conditions they are being told to override and use COVID-19 as cause of death. This goes counter to training. Doctors are trained to weigh all factors and to make a determination based on their experience along with all information in a patients health record. | 03:07 |
| stinkpot | is this really the protocol? | 03:07 |
| LjL | the protocol is different in different countries | 03:16 |
| LjL | in Italy, anything who dies "with" COVID-19 gets counted as a "COVID death" by the Civil Protection, but then the ISS takes a small fraction of that and considers *those* the "COVID deaths" | 03:16 |
| LjL | both are, technically, ridiculous | 03:16 |
| Chromanin | %data Lebanon | 03:17 |
| Brainstorm | Chromanin: In all areas, Lebanon, there are 630 cases (0.0% of the population) and 20 deaths (3.2% of cases). 14554 tests were performed (4.3% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.1% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 19.8% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Lebanon for time series data. | 03:17 |
| LjL | especially the latter, since they basically exclude anyone who *did have* any other conditions, even minor things like some hypertension | 03:17 |
| LjL | i find the former much less ridiculous because in the current situation, most people who are tested for COVID at all have *serious* symptoms | 03:17 |
| LjL | so if they die, it's pretty reasonable to say they died from COVID | 03:17 |
| LjL | it's not like they are testing asymptomatic people and then they get run over by a bus and counted as a COVID death | 03:17 |
| LjL | covid deaths are underestimated, not overestimated | 03:18 |
| LjL | as looking at death rates vs normal death rates in hard-hit places like Lombardy or NYC will show | 03:18 |
| LjL | if fatal cardiac attacks are spiking up in NYC, that's not because people all suddenly got hypertension | 03:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 01:14 UTC: (news): Nursing homes see surge in deaths, Italy daily coronavirus death toll falls to lowest in weeks → https://is.gd/1gWrcT | 03:20 |
| kPa | LjL: maybe we should test those who get hit by buses to see if buses are comorbid | 03:21 |
| LjL | kPa, in China (well, Wuhan at least), the app you *have* to use to get on a public bus ensures that you are "green" (as in your health certificate), but at the same time, it reassuringly informs you that the bus itself (number plate and everything) has been certified "green" | 03:22 |
| kPa | interesting | 03:26 |
| stinkpot | yes i agree ljl covid deaths will tend to be underestimated | 03:30 |
| amberd0604[m] | Personally I'd rather let my immune system so what it's supposed to do. I'll take my chances on that before I take that awful HCQ garbage with horrendous side effects. High doses of vitamin C,D , and A have also been used and have been successful. | 03:31 |
| LjL | amberd0604[m], when you're given "HCQ garbage" you're quite often not even conscious | 03:32 |
| LjL | anyway there's anecdotal reports of success for just about anything | 03:33 |
| LjL | let's get some clinical trials shall we | 03:33 |
| amberd0604[m] | Perhaps. In that case, it's in God's hands. | 03:34 |
| LjL | if God is your doctor, then i suppose | 03:34 |
| amberd0604[m] | He is ❤️ | 03:34 |
| amberd0604[m] | If HCQ has saved lives than good!!! I don't want anyone to die. But I'm just saying given the choice of I had it, I'd choose nature over that. But I'm a Naturopath so.. Lol | 03:36 |
| LjL | oh good grief | 03:36 |
| LjL | as if synthesized vitamins are "natural" | 03:37 |
| amberd0604[m] | No I grow my own. | 03:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 01:35 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Australia coronavirus live news: NSW announces $440m rent relief package as Tasmania closes two hospitals – latest updates → https://is.gd/DSf8W7 | 03:37 |
| light | amberd0604[m]: do you know what they call alternative medicine that actually works? medicine. | 03:37 |
| adventurer | amberd0604[m], don't forget the zinc | 03:37 |
| tilikum | i hear that alkaline water cures coronavirus, arthritis and measles | 03:38 |
| amberd0604[m] | I'm not here to argue. I've seen things work that would blow you away that weren't concocted by big pharma. | 03:38 |
| LjL | okay, when you have double blind studies on them we can discuss them here too! | 03:39 |
| LjL | but now i'd say it's enough hearsay treatments for today | 03:40 |
| adventurer | we need good studies on HCQ too | 03:40 |
| adventurer | data | 03:40 |
| amberd0604[m] | Oh ye of little faith.LjL (@freenode_LjL:matrix.org) | 03:41 |
| adventurer | just saying | 03:41 |
| amberd0604[m] | adventurer: agree | 03:41 |
| adventurer | are there new ones? | 03:41 |
| kPa | I would prefer to not be administered HCQ because it's not shown to make a bit of difference | 03:41 |
| LjL | not little, no faith, thank you | 03:42 |
| amberd0604[m] | I'm sorry to hear that. | 03:42 |
| LjL | yes, we need studies, on HCQ and many other things | 03:42 |
| LjL | amberd0604[m], too bad | 03:43 |
| amberd0604[m] | I'll pray for you though. | 03:43 |
| light | ._. | 03:43 |
| amberd0604[m] | And I'm not being an a** | 03:43 |
| kPa | if I understand correctly, the biggest cause of falling into a fatal downward spiral has to do with inflmmation of the lungs preventing breathing, does that sound right? | 03:44 |
| amberd0604[m] | kPa: yes it does | 03:45 |
| kPa | I haven't seen any discussion about trying anti-inflammatories. Am I missing something? Do they not help with inflammation in the lungs? | 03:47 |
| euod[m] | there's people being treated with prednisolone, yes. | 03:47 |
| amberd0604[m] | That's what they have my son with bronchitis and it helped a lot. | 03:48 |
| light | why let your son use medicine from big pharma, i have it on good authority he could go the rest of his life without breathing | 03:49 |
| phil_ | what the hell | 03:49 |
| phil_ | a wild light | 03:49 |
| light | phil_! :D | 03:49 |
| amberd0604[m] | Because I wasn't always into natural medicine and I don't think all is bad. This was several years ago. It helped, yes. | 03:50 |
| kPa | oh apparently prednisone is an immunosupressant | 03:50 |
| phil_ | what's natural medicine | 03:50 |
| euod[m] | yes, it's an immunosupressant steroid. | 03:50 |
| euod[m] | it's well understood, it has no real side effects even in insane doses. | 03:51 |
| euod[m] | it removes your sense of taste for a bit but whatever. | 03:51 |
| LjL | except for suppressing your immune system i assume | 03:51 |
| kPa | so it would be contraindicated for covid, I would assume? | 03:51 |
| LjL | not necessarily, the problem with COVID sometimes/often seems to be immune systme overreaction | 03:51 |
| light | kPa: when the condition worsens and becomes ARDS the immune system attacks healthy lung tissue as well and is often fatal | 03:52 |
| LjL | (no idea if prednisone itself has been considered for COVID, but some other immunosuppressant drugs are) | 03:52 |
| kPa | thanks for the insight :) that makes more sense to me than HCQ tbh | 03:52 |
| euod[m] | LjL: it was mentioned a couple of times as being used, but I don't have a source for it. | 03:53 |
| LjL | kPa, well, HCQ is supposed to have some antiviral effect. i suppose in line of principle, it would be better to stop the virus than to stop the side-effects of the virus later | 03:53 |
| amberd0604[m] | I don't think big pharma as a whole is bad, but there are many issues I have. Like how they turned me into a strung out addict. I'm 2 years clean. What they did to me was criminal. All the concoctions and opiates. I turned to treating my condition with things from the Earth and I can finally have a life I love. | 03:53 |
| LjL | (but "later" maybe be a keyword: how early you catch it may make a difference on the best treatment to use) | 03:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 01:47 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Australia coronavirus live news: Queensland schools term 2 to continue distance learning as Tasmania quarantines 5,000 people – latest updates → https://is.gd/DSf8W7 | 03:54 |
| kPa | yeah, apparently the initial dose has a huge impact on outcome since the smaller the dose you get exponentially more time to develop antibodies | 03:55 |
| amberd0604[m] | So yes my faith and natural medicine worked for me. Sorry if that upset your belief system. | 03:55 |
| LjL | you have no idea whether they did, especially the faith | 03:55 |
| LjL | and "sorry if" is just a passive aggressive way to say "i'm not sorry at all" | 03:55 |
| LjL | bless your heart | 03:55 |
| amberd0604[m] | You assume so much. | 03:55 |
| amberd0604[m] | And no. I'm not sorry. That better? | 03:56 |
| LjL | yeah | 03:56 |
| amberd0604[m] | Cool | 03:56 |
| Spec | light: a beacon! | 03:57 |
| amberd0604[m] | Peace be with you. | 03:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 02:05 UTC: Coronavirus live news: global cases pass 1.8m as Italy and New York death tolls slow: WHO official warns Covid-19 will ‘stalk’ human race; global deaths pass 110,000; Boris Johnson discharged from hospital. Follow the latest updates → https://is.gd/Gq2OVi | 04:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 02:21 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: China's new cases rise above 100, Singapore reports 233 new cases → https://is.gd/SopXrB | 04:23 |
| ynhof[m] | %cases New Delhi | 04:25 |
| Brainstorm | ynhof[m]: Sorry, New Delhi not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 04:25 |
| ynhof[m] | %cases India | 04:25 |
| Brainstorm | ynhof[m]: In all areas, India, there are 8826 cases (0.0% of the population) and 302 deaths (3.4% of cases). 195748 tests were performed (4.5% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=India for time series data. | 04:25 |
| ynhof[m] | Do you think it is largely underreported there or they managed to contain it very effectively | 04:26 |
| LjL | largely underreported | 04:27 |
| LjL | %cases delhi | 04:27 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Delhi, India, there are 1069 cases (0.1% of the population) and 19 deaths (1.8% of cases). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Delhi for time series data. | 04:27 |
| LjL | just look at the graphs, they're going up exponentially, it's not contained | 04:27 |
| LjL | well, or don't, since they don't seem to be loading ;( | 04:28 |
| ynhof[m] | Wow its so suspicious everyone hovers at 1% infected for a prolonged period and then suddenly shoot off to far more. | 04:28 |
| LjL | 1% infected? | 04:29 |
| LjL | where do you see that | 04:29 |
| LjL | that may be... true in reality in some places, but i don't believe any of the official numbers reach 1% of the population | 04:29 |
| ynhof[m] | *0.1%, typo mistake | 04:29 |
| LjL | ah | 04:29 |
| kPa | could just be a round up because nobody wants to report 0.0% if they even have a only a handful of cases | 04:30 |
| LjL | my bot is calculating the percentage | 04:31 |
| LjL | cases/population, rounded whichever way Python rounds | 04:31 |
| kPa | i didn't realize ynhof[m] was referring to your bot | 04:32 |
| LjL | well maybe they weren't but my bot had just reported 0.1% | 04:32 |
| ynhof[m] | It was the same here (undisclosed). | 04:34 |
| ynhof[m] | I got sick and when were at that point they refused to test anyone. | 04:34 |
| ynhof[m] | They said if you haven't knowingly come in contact eith covid and haven't been overseas (then implicitly) we | 04:34 |
| ynhof[m] | refuse to test you until you prove to me you're half dead. | 04:34 |
| ynhof[m] | Completely massage the numbers. | 04:34 |
| ynhof[m] | Two weeks into the lockdown they realise no one could have matched the travel criteria because the lockdown now means nobody can meet that criteria without an intercontinental private jet | 04:34 |
| ynhof[m] | So they wanted community transmission to go unreported provided the lockdown might reducen it. | 04:36 |
| ynhof[m] | But such incompetence makes me wonder if the virus is a tool used for proxy war/deus ex machina of buearaucratic arm | 04:36 |
| kPa | ynhof[m]: I find it hard to believe that governments would have enough foresight to accomplish that given the global level of incompetence | 04:39 |
| ecrockz123 | %cases kerala | 04:39 |
| Brainstorm | ecrockz123: In Kerala, India, there are 374 cases (0.0% of the population) and 2 deaths (0.5% of cases). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.2% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 1.4% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Kerala for time series data. | 04:39 |
| ynhof[m] | This was experienced nationwide and reported onvery lightly by the media. | 04:45 |
| ynhof[m] | The nations leader said 'we should do more testing etc' and thenat the same time articles were published how hard it is to get a test. | 04:45 |
| ynhof[m] | Supposedly theres thousands upon thousands of test materials but major regions were complaining they had enough kit to do one test. | 04:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 02:26 UTC: Coronavirus live news: global cases pass 1.8m as Italy and New York death tolls slow: WHO official warns Covid-19 will ‘stalk’ human race; global deaths pass 110,000; Boris Johnson discharged from hospital. Follow the latest updates → https://is.gd/Gq2OVi | 04:47 |
| ynhof[m] | One doctor refused a person a test telling them they were fine in hospital. | 04:48 |
| ynhof[m] | The person went to another hospital after wasting along time trying. | 04:48 |
| ynhof[m] | The nurses/doctor involved at the previous hospital had to self isolate when the person's test came back positive. They continue to still this | 04:48 |
| ynhof[m] | *still do this | 04:48 |
| Flaviker | !covid bulgaria | 04:49 |
| CoronaBot | Bulgaria: Global rank: #80, cases: 675, fatalities: 29, active cases: 578, total recovered: 68, in a serious condition: 36. Mortality: 4.30%, case fatality rate: 29.90%, cases/1M: 97.0, deaths/1M: 4.0. Case rate: 14/24h, death rate: 1/24h. Tests: 18,502, tests/1M: 2,663. | 04:49 |
| ynhof[m] | I could not see a dentist because the dentist after being warned of my symptoms advised it be wise I get tested, while many health personnel would not provide me info for the testing centre. | 04:52 |
| ynhof[m] | So I had broken tooth and no dentist because no test. | 04:52 |
| ynhof[m] | So I finally got info for testing center but am too paranoid to go for fear the test will be some form of nutjob conspiracy I fictionally invent i.e bi | 04:52 |
| ynhof[m] | Bilogical surveillance tool | 04:53 |
| LjL | oh don't be silly | 04:53 |
| LjL | i'd worry about going to hospital instead | 04:53 |
| LjL | are you sick enough to likely require hospitalization soon? | 04:53 |
| LjL | because if not... i don't know what to advise, but just keep in mind that hospitals are places where getting COVID is more likely | 04:53 |
| ynhof[m] | If my mouth gets infected idk how many teeth I could lose | 04:54 |
| ynhof[m] | But yeah hospital is a trap | 04:54 |
| ynhof[m] | And school may reopen next week and I may still be carrying | 04:56 |
| swift110 | hey all | 04:58 |
| jester | they will just chip you and track you | 04:58 |
| LjL | ynhof[m], well it sucks but dentists are among the people most at risk | 05:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 02:56 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: China's new cases rise above 100, Singapore reports 233 new cases → https://is.gd/SopXrB | 05:00 |
| LjL | i can understand they won't see a symptomatic patients | 05:00 |
| ynhof[m] | Yeah I understand the dentists concern lol | 05:00 |
| LjL | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Horton_Conway#Death | 05:03 |
| stinkpot | you a fan of Conway? | 05:04 |
| LjL | stinkpot, not in particular | 05:12 |
| LjL | i'm a fan of people like him i guess | 05:12 |
| LjL | 18<29CarlSagan_18> [2NYT - Science] Small Chloroquine Study Halted Over Risk of Fatal Heart Complications https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/12/health/chloroquine-coronavirus-trump.html 2020-04-13T03:10:40 | 05:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 03:19 UTC: Coronavirus live news: global cases pass 1.8m as Italy and New York death tolls slow: WHO official warns Covid-19 will ‘stalk’ human race; global deaths pass 110,000; Boris Johnson discharged from hospital. Follow the latest updates → https://is.gd/Gq2OVi | 05:36 |
| adventurer | https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-09/professor-paul-young-discusses-the-search-for-a/12139690 | 06:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 04:09 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: China's new cases rise above 100, Singapore reports 233 new cases → https://is.gd/SopXrB | 06:12 |
| caronavirus2001 | hello | 06:28 |
| caronavirus2001 | https://bing.com/covid says 559,000 cases in USA now | 06:29 |
| caronavirus2001 | A pandemics app https://apps.apple.com/us/app/pandemics/id1506265440 says 534,000 cases now. https://infection2020.com/ says 562,000 . | 06:31 |
| caronavirus2001 | Do you have anywhere correct number? | 06:31 |
| euod[m] | does it make much of a difference? | 06:34 |
| euod[m] | https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily says 551,826 | 06:34 |
| euod[m] | they're all in the same sort of area. | 06:34 |
| euod[m] | it's like 0.5% difference. | 06:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 05:22 UTC: (news): Nursing homes see surge in deaths, Italy daily coronavirus death toll falls to lowest in weeks → https://is.gd/1gWrcT | 07:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test)* at 05:33 UTC: nCoV: Coronavirus: 31 Dead, Elderly Covered In Feces At Dorval Long-Term Care Facility → https://is.gd/SNLeWG | 07:37 |
| ynhof[m] | %data France | 07:44 |
| Brainstorm | ynhof[m]: In all areas, France, there are 133670 cases (0.2% of the population) and 14393 deaths (10.8% of cases). 333807 tests were performed (40.0% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=France for time series data. | 07:44 |
| Philippe[m] | !covid france | 07:48 |
| CoronaBot | France: Global rank: #4, cases: 132,591, fatalities: 14,393, active cases: 91,012, total recovered: 27,186, in a serious condition: 6,845. Mortality: 10.86%, case fatality rate: 34.62%, cases/1M: 2031.0, deaths/1M: 221.0. Case rate: 2,937/24h, death rate: 561/24h. Tests: 333,807, tests/1M: 5,114. | 07:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 05:45 UTC: Coronavirus live news: global cases pass 1.8m as Italy and New York death tolls slow: All but 10 of China’s 108 new infections are imported: WHO official warns Covid-19 will ‘stalk’ human race; global cases pass 1.8m. Follow the latest updates → https://is.gd/Gq2OVi | 07:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 05:50 UTC: /u/slakmehl: The New York Times su Twitter: "President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declined to accept the resignation of Turkey’s interior minister, who offered it after taking responsibility for an abruptly announced curfew over the weekend that set off panic buying Latest updates: https://t.co/82tmKCtcX8" → https://is.gd/d3bzAd | 08:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 06:00 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: China's new cases rise above 100, Singapore reports 233 new cases → https://is.gd/SopXrB | 08:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 06:13 UTC: Coronavirus live news: global cases pass 1.8m as Italy and New York death tolls slow: China reports highest daily cases in over five weeks: WHO official warns Covid-19 will ‘stalk’ human race; New York deaths slow. Follow the latest updates → https://is.gd/Gq2OVi | 08:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 06:40 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Australian researchers 'a few weeks' from clinical trial results for coronavirus drug → https://is.gd/pmJcg9 | 09:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 07:00 UTC: Coronavirus live news: global cases pass 1.8m as Italy and New York death tolls slow: China reports highest daily cases in over five weeks: WHO official warns Covid-19 will ‘stalk’ human race; New York deaths slow. Follow the latest updates → https://is.gd/Gq2OVi | 09:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 07:35 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus UK live: Praise for NHS nurses who saved Boris Johnson as row over PPE continues → https://is.gd/GHd5Fl | 09:38 |
| truthr | looks like we have passed the peak deaths per day for covid 19 in the US | 09:46 |
| Deerper | good | 09:47 |
| Deerper | who soon till i can get a pastrami sandwich? | 09:49 |
| Deerper | how soon till i can get a pastrami sandwich? | 09:49 |
| jester | tpaper on sale | 09:51 |
| osomatsu_kun | Brainstorm says "not found" when I type "South Korea"... | 09:53 |
| aradesh | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ERi2cL730o "Coronavirus: Can it even be stopped?" | 09:53 |
| jester | here all dead | 09:53 |
| jester | there | 09:53 |
| ubLIX | osomatsu_kun: try https://offloop.net/covid19/ for now, until LjL wakes up and fixes Brainstorm. I know they changed the data source recently so that might have something to do with it. | 09:57 |
| l0ndoner | https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/12/asia/china-coronavirus-research-restrictions-intl-hnk/index.html?ofs=fbia | 10:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 07:48 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: cases worldwide pass 1.85m as oil producers sign historic deal → https://is.gd/Gq2OVi | 10:03 |
| l0ndoner | China has imposed restrictions on the publication of academic research on the origins of the novel coronavirus | 10:03 |
| l0ndoner | wonder why? | 10:04 |
| Deerper | novel virus? = SUSE? | 10:07 |
| aradesh | lol, i like this guys comparisons for money. the US bailout package for coronavirus is like sending 6 rovers to mars every day for a year xD | 10:07 |
| aradesh | in terms of equivalent cost | 10:08 |
| Deerper | everything is better understood with a rover analogy | 10:10 |
| l0ndoner | China reports highest infection count in weeks | 10:13 |
| Deerper | yes 108 cases | 10:13 |
| aradesh | i bet china has a lot more cases in rural china than it realises | 10:14 |
| aradesh | in their cities, you got modern medical facilities, etc | 10:15 |
| aradesh | but out in the styx... | 10:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 08:11 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Cina → https://is.gd/5WS3Oy | 10:15 |
| Deerper | there probably +cases at Chinatown | 10:15 |
| Deerper | styx? | 10:16 |
| aradesh | the poor rural areas | 10:22 |
| aradesh | i guess it's just meant to be 'sticks' | 10:23 |
| aradesh | i assumed it was the same word as styx | 10:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 08:18 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: cases worldwide pass 1.85m as oil producers sign historic deal → https://is.gd/Gq2OVi | 10:27 |
| Arsanerit | is 1.85m a "milestone" now? | 10:31 |
| suaefar[m] | Projection for today | 10:35 |
| l0ndoner | \n3p\: o/ | 10:36 |
| \n3p\ | hi l0ndoner | 10:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 08:34 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: China's new cases rise above 100, Singapore reports 233 new cases → https://is.gd/SopXrB | 10:39 |
| \n3p\ | Mexico +23 new deaths but government are lying. Testing for COVID-19 is prohibited by government and they close hospitals and businesses that sell test kits | 10:42 |
| mefistofeles | https://github.com/DP-3T/documents this is yet another tracing app, which apparently does the same as others (specifically the Singapore one) but it seems way less developed | 10:46 |
| osomatsu_kun | ubLIX: Ah! I see, thank you, ubLIX | 11:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 09:00 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Russia reports record daily rise in new cases; China's new cases rise above 100 → https://is.gd/SopXrB | 11:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 09:22 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: USA → https://is.gd/k1YAfc | 11:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 09:39 UTC: China defends the WHO after Trump — and others — say it is deferring to Beijing: The World Health Organization has come under intense scrutiny for its handling of the coronavirus pandemic with U.S. President Donald Trump's administration, China and Taiwan locked in a tussle of words. → https://is.gd/a4B7if | 11:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 09:48 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Spain records another drop in daily death toll as cases worldwide pass 1.85m → https://is.gd/Gq2OVi | 12:02 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: New York City at 7PM from Manhattan during shift change. (10221 votes) | https://redd.it/g0apbh | 12:03 |
| mefistofeles | heh | 12:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 10:18 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Coronavirus, a Pasqua a Milano 10 mila controlli e 487 persone. Oggi per strada 70 pattuglie di vigili e droni - la Repubblica → https://is.gd/auIGbJ | 12:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 10:36 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Germania → https://is.gd/vl15WS | 12:37 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +3869 cases (now 1864066), +462 deaths (now 114869) — Spain: +2665 cases (now 169496), +280 deaths (now 17489) — Catalonia, Spain: +699 cases (now 34726), +96 deaths (now 3538) | 12:37 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +3869 cases (now 1864066), +462 deaths (now 114869) — Spain: +2665 cases (now 169496), +280 deaths (now 17489) — Catalonia, Spain: +699 cases (now 34726), +96 deaths (now 3538) | 12:37 |
| pwr22 | Finished my facemask | 12:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 10:40 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Spain records another drop in daily death toll as cases worldwide pass 1.85m → https://is.gd/Gq2OVi | 12:49 |
| ubLIX | very close to your eyes, directing airflow-wise - got good sun/safety-glasses? | 12:51 |
| ubLIX | or a pliable metal strip you could insert at the bridge of your nose to close it down a bit | 12:51 |
| ynhof[m] | Pwr it is amazing you don't really look older than me but I am under 25. | 12:54 |
| ynhof[m] | Is it shirt fabric? | 12:56 |
| adventurer | https://twitter.com/QandA/status/1249647835345084416?s=20 | 12:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 10:54 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Russia reports record daily rise in new cases; Spain lifts some restrictions → https://is.gd/SopXrB | 13:01 |
| aradesh | are they really lifting measures in spain? | 13:05 |
| aradesh | or relaxing | 13:06 |
| \n3p\ | Monday (TODAY) some people start to work in Madrid https://www.libremercado.com/2020-04-13/estado-de-alarma-quienes-vuelven-a-trabajar-a-partir-de-este-lunes-y-quienes-seguiran-parados-1276655758/ | 13:08 |
| \n3p\ | Public cleaning, oil industry, justice workers, police and safety people, telecommunication workers (phone), food and food supply chain workers, electrical energy workers, construction workers, public transport workers | 13:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test)* at 11:11 UTC: CoronaVirusInfo: Timeline of Worst Pandemics in History → https://is.gd/7SDQvx | 13:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 11:15 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Vaccino → https://is.gd/2EtZjH | 13:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 11:35 UTC: (news): Russia reports record daily rise in new cases; Spain lifts some restrictions → https://is.gd/SopXrB | 13:38 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +2036 cases (now 1866102), +211 deaths (now 115080) — Moscow City, Russia: +1355 cases (now 11513) — Iran: +809 cases (now 72495), +56 deaths (now 4530) | 13:38 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +2019 cases (now 1866102), +210 deaths (now 115080) — Moscow City, Russia: +1355 cases (now 11513) — Iran: +809 cases (now 72495), +56 deaths (now 4530) | 13:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 11:39 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Spain records another drop in daily death toll as cases worldwide pass 1.85m → https://is.gd/Gq2OVi | 13:50 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Man, 39, faces 20 years in prison ‘for attempting to sell 125 million nonexistent face masks to the Department of Veterans Affairs worth $750M’ (10159 votes) | https://redd.it/g0b10i | 13:51 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +931 cases (now 1867033), +61 deaths (now 115141) — Iran: +808 cases (now 73303), +55 deaths (now 4585) — Bangladesh: +91 cases (now 803) | 13:53 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +931 cases (now 1867033), +61 deaths (now 115141) — Iran: +808 cases (now 73303), +55 deaths (now 4585) — Bangladesh: +91 cases (now 803) | 13:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 11:50 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: China defends the WHO; Spain's daily toll of new deaths continues to fall → https://is.gd/KagTc3 | 14:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 11:55 UTC: Coronavirus UK live: Lockdown measures 'to be reviewed this week' as row over PPE continues: Nicola Sturgeon says review in Scotland unlikely to lead to lockdown restrictions being eased as death toll rises; government faces more questions over protection for medical staff → https://is.gd/GHd5Fl | 14:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 12:17 UTC: China defends the WHO after Trump — and others — say it is deferring to Beijing: The World Health Organization has come under intense scrutiny for its handling of the coronavirus pandemic with President Donald Trump's administration, China and Taiwan locked in a tussle of words. → https://is.gd/a4B7if | 14:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 12:28 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Spain records another drop in daily death toll as cases worldwide pass 1.85m → https://is.gd/Gq2OVi | 14:38 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +1255 cases (now 1868288), +102 deaths (now 115243) — Netherlands: +522 cases (now 26109) — California, US: +505 cases (now 23300) | 14:38 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +1255 cases (now 1868288), +102 deaths (now 115243) — Netherlands: +522 cases (now 26109) — California, US: +505 cases (now 23300) | 14:38 |
| PMM[m] | Poland. Coronavirus Cases: 6674 Deaths: 232 Recovered: 439 | 14:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 12:45 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: China defends the WHO; Spain's daily toll of new deaths continues to fall → https://is.gd/KagTc3 | 14:50 |
| l0ndoner | !covid taiwan | 14:51 |
| CoronaBot | Taiwan: Global rank: #99, cases: 393 (+5), fatalities: 6, active cases: 273, total recovered: 114, in a serious condition: -. Mortality: 1.53%, case fatality rate: 5.00%, cases/1M: 17.0, deaths/1M: 0.3. Case rate: 3/24h, death rate: 0/24h. Tests: 47,215, tests/1M: 1,982. | 14:51 |
| dy | %cases Poland | 14:55 |
| Brainstorm | dy: In all areas, Poland, there are 6674 cases (0.0% of the population) and 232 deaths (3.5% of cases). 138007 tests were performed (4.8% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Poland for time series data. | 14:55 |
| \n3p\ | Sweden Approves Animal Anaesthetic for Coronavirus Cases as Supplies Run Low | 15:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 13:00 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Trump → https://is.gd/Vj3JVs | 15:03 |
| \n3p\ | Sweden is a banana kingdom. | 15:05 |
| \n3p\ | !covid sweden | 15:05 |
| CoronaBot | Sweden: Global rank: #19, cases: 10,948 (+465), fatalities: 919 (+20), active cases: 9,648, total recovered: 381, in a serious condition: 859. Mortality: 8.39%, case fatality rate: 70.69%, cases/1M: 1084.0, deaths/1M: 91.0. Case rate: 332/24h, death rate: 12/24h. Tests: 54,700, tests/1M: 5,416. | 15:05 |
| ecks | veterinary propofol is still propofol | 15:09 |
| \n3p\ | ecks, maybe but the standards are not the same. | 15:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 13:12 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Trump retweets #FireFauci, China defends the WHO → https://is.gd/KagTc3 | 15:15 |
| ecov | Why does there seem to be a blackout of covid news coming out of south america | 15:23 |
| python476 | o/ | 15:25 |
| ecov | on my phone, in my google news feed, if I sort by "americas" its all US news lol | 15:29 |
| \n3p\ | ecov, maybe because LatAm is very authoritarian culture and censure information specially in a matter of national security. Mexico is not just censuring. Also is prohibited to test people for COVID-19 | 15:32 |
| \n3p\ | ecov, there you can find news from LatAm but in Spanish https://www.infobae.com/america/ | 15:33 |
| PMM[m] | Democracy in Poland is under threat. | 15:34 |
| PMM[m] | https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/polish-government-still-planning-to-hold-presidential-election | 15:34 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +1456 cases (now 1869744), +67 deaths (now 115310) — Sweden: +465 cases (now 10948) — Netherlands: +442 cases (now 26551) | 15:39 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +1456 cases (now 1869744), +67 deaths (now 115310) — Sweden: +465 cases (now 10948) — Netherlands: +442 cases (now 26551) | 15:39 |
| ecov | \n3p\: thanks | 15:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 13:45 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Trump retweets #FireFauci, China defends the WHO → https://is.gd/KagTc3 | 15:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health at 13:49 UTC: (news): Coronavirus: Gown supply 'critically low' in some hospitals → https://is.gd/4nY6ZE | 15:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 13:58 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Trump retweets #FireFauci, China defends the WHO → https://is.gd/KagTc3 | 16:03 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +3061 cases (now 1872805), +386 deaths (now 115696) — United Kingdom: +2404 cases (now 86683), +363 deaths (now 10975) — Wales, United Kingdom: +313 cases (now 5610) | 16:08 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +3061 cases (now 1872805), +386 deaths (now 115696) — United Kingdom: +2404 cases (now 86683), +363 deaths (now 10975) — Wales, United Kingdom: +313 cases (now 5610) | 16:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health at 14:08 UTC: Coronavirus: Gown supply 'critically low' in some hospitals: It comes as the number of coronavirus deaths in UK hospitals rises to 11,329 - up by 717 since Sunday. → https://is.gd/4nY6ZE | 16:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 14:14 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Italia → https://is.gd/M13Us4 | 16:16 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +2282 cases (now 1875087), +361 deaths (now 116057) — United Kingdom: +1938 cases (now 88621), +354 deaths (now 11329) — Maryland, US: +708 cases (now 8936) | 16:21 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +2282 cases (now 1875087), +361 deaths (now 116057) — United Kingdom: +1938 cases (now 88621), +354 deaths (now 11329) — Maryland, US: +708 cases (now 8936) | 16:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 14:27 UTC: /u/slakmehl: The Guardian su Twitter: "Coronavirus conspiracy theories targeting Muslims spread in India https://t.co/8zG5gvHrJY" → https://is.gd/I0bdj9 | 16:30 |
| bin_bash | nice spam | 16:47 |
| python476 | ouh, UK reached US levels of growth | 17:06 |
| LjL | %cases uk | 17:07 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In all areas, United Kingdom, there are 88621 cases (0.1% of the population) and 11329 deaths (12.8% of cases). 367667 tests were performed (24.1% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 17:07 |
| LjL | and so much for italy's mortality being an anomaly | 17:08 |
| python476 | UK minister said that ? | 17:08 |
| python476 | happy to see italy around 5-600 | 17:09 |
| LjL | python476, no, it was just being widely stated as an anomaly, with various justifications like italy having an elderly population | 17:13 |
| LjL | and living with parents/grandparents | 17:14 |
| LjL | then spain had similar death rates, and one could say, okay, they're kind of similar to italy, maybe some of the same things apply | 17:14 |
| LjL | but the UK? | 17:14 |
| LjL | only similar thing that applies with the UK: very few ICU beds compared to Germany | 17:14 |
| LjL | well, and all these countries are testing mainly "very symptomatic" people, but so is just about every country with many cases, with the exception of Korea | 17:15 |
| rajrajraj | Hi | 17:26 |
| rajrajraj | Any news? | 17:26 |
| lf94 | still alive | 17:26 |
| rajrajraj | Good mate | 17:26 |
| mefistofeles | hah | 17:27 |
| rajrajraj | World news? | 17:27 |
| LjL | nothing huge afaik | 17:31 |
| mefistofeles | more and more people in the streets around here, fwiw | 17:31 |
| mefistofeles | not a single one wearing PPE | 17:31 |
| LjL | :\ | 17:32 |
| LjL | %cases germany | 17:32 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In all areas, Germany, there are 127854 cases (0.2% of the population) and 3022 deaths (2.4% of cases). 1.3 million tests were performed (9.7% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.8% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 4.9% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data. | 17:32 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for England, United Kingdom: +6671 cases (now 69329), +1324 deaths (now 10261) — World: +1978 cases (now 1877121), +125 deaths (now 116183) — US: +1313 cases (now 561570) | 17:39 |
| PMM[m] | Poland. Coronavirus Cases: 6934 Deaths: 245 Recovered: 487 | 17:41 |
| l0ndoner | I think UK is thinkking of gradually lifting lockdown maybe for the young and families and could be as early as 27th April | 17:42 |
| l0ndoner | similar to Austria lifting lockdown from tomorrow | 17:43 |
| euod[m] | well that's not happening. | 17:43 |
| euod[m] | a reduction in the number of new cases doesn't mean it's safe to leave. | 17:43 |
| euod[m] | it just means the steady state, with no contact, is working. | 17:43 |
| mefistofeles | euod[m]: it's not just that | 17:43 |
| l0ndoner | its about keeping the ICUs free I think the tiping point is very near | 17:44 |
| l0ndoner | but also means elderly and vunerable will be still be unable to leave | 17:45 |
| VaccinesCausedIt | So what happens with this RT-PRC test? Can they detect a specific RNA for SARS2 or any coronavirus is positive? | 17:49 |
| \n3p\ | Coronavirus Cases Rise 17 Percent in Mexico over Easter https://is.gd/b0p3ZT | 18:01 |
| \n3p\ | Mexico is without ventilators. And morgues are full of bodies because war on drugs | 18:03 |
| Flaviker | !covid bulgaria | 18:04 |
| CoronaBot | Bulgaria: Global rank: #83, cases: 685 (+10), fatalities: 32 (+3), active cases: 582, total recovered: 71, in a serious condition: 36. Mortality: 4.67%, case fatality rate: 31.07%, cases/1M: 99.0, deaths/1M: 5.0. Case rate: 14/24h, death rate: 1/24h. Tests: 18,502, tests/1M: 2,663. | 18:04 |
| Blankspace | !covid india | 18:05 |
| CoronaBot | India: Global rank: #22, cases: 9,635 (+430), fatalities: 331, active cases: 8,208, total recovered: 1,096, in a serious condition: -. Mortality: 3.44%, case fatality rate: 23.20%, cases/1M: 7.0, deaths/1M: 0.2. Case rate: 759/24h, death rate: 43/24h. Tests: 189,111, tests/1M: 137. | 18:05 |
| l0ndoner | Belgium looks drastic poor buggers | 18:06 |
| \n3p\ | A USS Theodore Roosevelt sailor has died of coronavirus-related complications, the U.S. Navy said. | 18:07 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +2458 cases (now 1879579), +244 deaths (now 116427) — Georgia (US), US: +765 cases (now 13315) — US: +512 cases (now 562082), +174 deaths (now 22327) | 18:09 |
| LjL | Italy's daily Civil Protection press conference starting now at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xF9PVrRekw and I will take some notes as usual. | 18:09 |
| LjL | (Borrelli) Good evening. Prof. Gianni Rezza, director of Infectious Diseases at ISS, is with me. | 18:09 |
| LjL | Today there are +1663 current positives. | 18:10 |
| LjL | We have 3260 ICU patients, -83 from yesterday. 28023 are hospitalized, +176. | 18:10 |
| LjL | Most positives are self-isolating, 72333 (70). | 18:10 |
| LjL | We have unfortunately +566 deaths. Recoveries +1224. | 18:10 |
| LjL | 18467 volunteers are working as of today, together with firefighters, armed forces etc. | 18:11 |
| LjL | We have 117 million euro in donations, for buying PPEs and ventilators; about 25 million have already been spent, 9 million for ventilators, the rest for masks. | 18:12 |
| LjL | I want to correct a piece of news that was shown on Repubblica, which is unfunded: all components of the nurse team that have been assigned to the regions had been tested for coronavirus, so only those who were negative were transferred. No one went to Turin without having their test result. | 18:13 |
| LjL | I can confirm that during our preliminary checks, we found 2 people, one positive and another unclear, and those two people did not leave. | 18:13 |
| LjL | The region of Piedmont has nonetheless decided to keep these nurses "on standby" for 14 days. | 18:13 |
| \n3p\ | Guangzhou Chinese City Bans Black People from Hotels, Apartments, Restaurants | 18:13 |
| LjL | As to quarantine, the healthcare personnel are under special sanitary measures: they undergo checks, and they continue working until they develop any symptoms. | 18:14 |
| LjL | Now, Prof. Rezza, please? | 18:14 |
| LjL | (Rezza) I'd like to interpret the data a little. Sometimes people say, how come one month since lockdown, you say things are getting better, but then we still have many cases, and unfortunately, many deaths? | 18:14 |
| LjL | The thing is: right after the lockdown there was a fair bit of violation of it, and there can be transmission in the families, in apartment buildings... so the "tail" lengthens. | 18:15 |
| LjL | After that, was must keep something into account: the time between being infected and the time of notification can be even 20 days. +3000 new cases are not new infections, they are new notified cases, that have gotten the infection 20 days ago. In terms of mortality, that's even longer: someone can be in ICU for many days unfortuntely. So you must keep into account the time of infection, time of symptoms, time of diagnosis, and waiting for hopefully | 18:16 |
| LjL | recovery, but sometimes death. | 18:16 |
| LjL | If we don't keep this in mind we cannot understand why we say things are getting better while cases and deaths are still rising. | 18:17 |
| LjL | Reduction in hospitalizations and ICU admissions are earlier signals, which are more meaningful. | 18:17 |
| LjL | We are still definitely in "phase 1": there are good signals, but we must yet see how the data consolidates. | 18:18 |
| LjL | I hope I was clear, since the data can create some perplexities. | 18:18 |
| LjL | (Borrelli) Okay, thank you. Any questions now? | 18:18 |
| LjL | Q: Are there studies on damage to other organs, aside from the lungs, or is it still early for that? Second thing, about soccer, various entities disagree on whether or not to continue matches. According to the scientific committee, is it thinkable to give the "go ahead" to a contact sport, which also includes hundreds of accessory people? | 18:19 |
| LjL | A: This is a new virus and the effects on the hosts are not fully clear, but for now, despite follow-up being somewhat limited, we are not seeing residual damage, like organ deficits that persist after recovery. | 18:20 |
| LjL | We've seen relapses, which are probably not re-infections, but rather seeming negatives that turn positive again. It is not certain that a relapsing person is still infectious, but there is a scientific effort on this. | 18:20 |
| LjL | There are some studies that talk about effects on the CNS, but data are not consolidated yet. Certainly there are symptoms that were neglected at first, such as olfactory disorders... but these do not seem to persist in time, it's probably epithelial damage. | 18:21 |
| LjL | Clearly, in more serious cases with citokyne storms, more organs can be compromised. | 18:21 |
| Biep[m] | <dzho "whereas epicenter implies a pinp"> "Epicentre" tells us that there is a centre ***elsewhere*** (in the case of earthquakes: subterraneous) from where things emanate. | 18:22 |
| LjL | As to soccer, personally I'd say let's forget about it. The CTS has not expressed itself, politics will decide, and contacts sports incur some risk of transmission... I heard some have proposed very strict monitoring... sincerely, I find it a bit of a stretch. | 18:22 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: WHO urges China to close ‘dangerous’ wet market as stalls in Wuhan begin to reopen (10040 votes) | https://redd.it/g0h532 | 18:22 |
| LjL | Q: About vaccines, during the past hours expectations seem to have risen, and a company has announced a trial on 500 volunteers by the end of April. Are there any actual hopes? | 18:23 |
| l0ndoner | if it came from bats why they closing fish markets? | 18:23 |
| LjL | A: Vaccines are accelerating... we always talked about one year, but what happens? During the epidemic, regulatory agencies become less strict, and timeframes get shorter. I think Science or Nature, the other day, talked about the first 5 vaccines in phase-1 human trials, including an mRNA vaccine by NHS in cooperation with a privacy company, and others in China. | 18:24 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for New York, US: +5998 cases (now 195031), +671 deaths (now 10056) — Pennsylvania, US: +1261 cases (now 24199) — World: +74 cases (now 1879653) | 18:24 |
| sydrush | l0ndoner: they sell everything | 18:24 |
| LjL | As to Pomezia, it is a "vector" vaccine, using an adenovirus as the vector, expressing the coronavirus's spike protein (which is produced at Oxford). | 18:25 |
| LjL | It's a vaccine that makes use of a platform that was used in Ebola before. | 18:25 |
| LjL | yuriwho, ↑ | 18:25 |
| LjL | So it's the same platform which gives the advantage the vacine is not particularly innovative, it has already been used in a sense. | 18:25 |
| LjL | Phase 1 and 2, or even 3, could be "compressed" together. Perspectives I've heard were optimistic, not only on this vaccine but all of them. | 18:26 |
| LjL | What we wish is they can evoke immune responses and that they will be retained in time. | 18:26 |
| LjL | Q: Our audience keep asking about tests, why do politicians, footballers and even journalists keep getting tested, while doctor Valli who died the other day didn't get tested? Why do I 3.9°C fever, and do not get tested? | 18:27 |
| l0ndoner | ^ | 18:27 |
| LjL | A: We did see there were difficulties with tests in the initial phase, but now we are doing many of them every day. We have followed WHO rules on making them. I don't think anyone received preferential treatment. We should look at specific cases and see why they did not get a test. | 18:27 |
| jacklsw | i thought the people there ask not to sell exotic animals anymore | 18:27 |
| LjL | I can't answer to that specific case, I don't know about it. | 18:28 |
| LjL | (Rezza) There were problems with reagents too, and we're trying to deal with it... we are witnessing a reduction in the number of cases despite testing more. Milan was a problem for instance, but lately they have been able to make many more tests. Maybe they have less pressure on the hospitals now. | 18:29 |
| LjL | I think things are going better now, but there was definitely a problem. I will still say we're in "phase 1" and we must be careful, attentive and respectful of the rules. During "phase 2" we will really have to catch cases immediately, to find any new clusters immediately. | 18:29 |
| LjL | Q: Deaths are more than 20000 as of today, and a WHO note tells us that this coronavirus is 10x as deadly as the 2009 flu virus. When do you think we'll see consolidation of data, especially deaths? | 18:30 |
| LjL | A: I never had a doubt that this was not a flu, at least not the normal seasonal flu... if anything it can be compared with pandemic flu, but H1N1 mostly spared the elderly. | 18:30 |
| LjL | So, lethality of this virus is definitely higher than seasonal flu. I remember even some colleagues saying it could be a cold, a flu-like disease... but no this is a virus that attacks the lungs, it gives pneumonia in a certain fraction of cases. So the fact mortality would be higher was to be taken for granted. | 18:31 |
| LjL | When will we see effects of containment even on deaths? I believe it'll be the last figure that goes down. | 18:31 |
| LjL | As I said before, the timeframe is longer. So unfortunately this number will go down last. We have a downward trend, fortunately, as we had reached +1000... I don't mean to say +500 makes us happy, it's still dramatic, but there has been a reduction. | 18:32 |
| LjL | We are trying to model this, but since infection to notification we believe it's around 20 days, so infection to death could be longer. Now it's getting shorter, because the fact there are more tests suggests we reach diagnosis sooner. | 18:33 |
| LjL | So we see a downwards trend, but slower than the trends on ICU admissions. | 18:33 |
| LjL | Q: Prof. Locatelli wished schools can be resumed in September. Do you agree? We've also talked about reopening some industries in the coming weeks... are there just rumors? | 18:34 |
| LjL | A: About schools... this is phase 1, okay? There are positive signs, but the virus is circulating. I cannot agree with Prof. Locatelli, honestly... and I think Dr Borrelli agrees with me on something: we've seen a lot of new things, such as remote working, "agile" working... other countries had already introduced it, and in our country this dramatic period has helped innovation. | 18:35 |
| LjL | It's clear that since we cannot stay fully locked down for multiple months, but, reopening some production activities, even if we do it, doesn't mean we're back to normal. We will still inevitably have social distancing and rules on transport etc. | 18:36 |
| LjL | (Borrelli) On the task force, they are working, they just started, let's give them the time to work, I don't feel like saying anything right now, it's premature. | 18:36 |
| LjL | Q: I want to go back on daily new cases: the numbers keep being high as far as I see... it's true the infection comes from earlier, but we were already in lockdown. So if these are the numbers now, won't the situation if we "reopen" some things become unacceptable? During "phase 2", what will happen then? | 18:37 |
| LjL | A: (Borrelli) I will ask Rezza to answer, but we saw a graph, right? There is a downward trend but... | 18:37 |
| LjL | (Rezza) Apart from the fact we are seeing infections from 20 days ago... after the lockdown, there was still infections within families, we haven't done like the Chinese who "deport" relatives into special structures. We have also had clusters in the nursing homes. Those things do cause new cases. | 18:38 |
| LjL | If you look at the curve being referenced by Borrelli, even in terms of... I don't want to call it a peak, without our measures, the curve would have kept growing... we are seeing stabilization now, not a peak. New cases are less than reported one week ago. But we see a jittering that is normal and natural. | 18:39 |
| LjL | But if you drew a straight line, you would see a downward trens. | 18:39 |
| LjL | Sure, the models that show you that by mid-May we will be at "zero" cases are wrong, we won't reach zero. Maybe Wuhan could do it, by taking incredible measures, and despite that, they have "return cases". | 18:40 |
| LjL | So we'll have a downward trend that will consolidate, but the virus will kept circulating to an extent, and we will have to "patch" it all the time. | 18:40 |
| LjL | Even if circulation is lower, every time we have a cluster, we will have to be extremely quick in identifying them and containing them. | 18:41 |
| LjL | Apps will be fine, but we need people, just like in Korea: they have apps but they also have people testing and tracing cases. | 18:41 |
| LjL | "Territorial medicine" will have to be strengthened, not just things like ICUs. | 18:41 |
| LjL | (Borrelli) Okay. Thank you and good evening. | 18:42 |
| LjL | --- end | 18:42 |
| LjL | some more interesting stuff than usual from Rezza | 18:42 |
| LjL | bubt not great numbers | 18:42 |
| LjL | My translation of today's civil protection press conference in Italy: https://dpaste.org/zHJa | 18:45 |
| l0ndoner | thank you LjL | 18:45 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, something else that i've been notified about with the data from Covidly: officially based on https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14 the UK has 4342 new cases today, and this does match https://covidly.com/?country=United%20Kingdom but then if you look at England, https://covidly.com/?country=United%20Kingdom&showStates=1 it has +6671 | 18:50 |
| l0ndoner | united kingdom and England two different things | 18:53 |
| l0ndoner | https://www.arcgis.com doesnt look like its been updated | 18:54 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +4164 cases (now 1883817), +511 deaths (now 116938) — Turkey: +2047 cases (now 59003) — Italy: +1577 cases (now 157940), +283 deaths (now 20182) | 18:54 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, and now ↑ it's doing the same as it did yesterday: those are *half* the real cases and half the real deaths for Italy | 18:55 |
| LjL | in reality it's +3153 and +566 | 18:55 |
| LjL | it will likely show the other half in some minutes, like it did yesterday | 18:55 |
| l0ndoner | LjL: when Italy lifting or partial lifting its measures? | 18:56 |
| LjL | l0ndoner, unknown, but the current term in the law is may 3 | 18:56 |
| LjL | but it's very clear it may be extended | 18:56 |
| l0ndoner | its a bank holiday UK so the figures like yesterday are well out | 18:57 |
| l0ndoner | thank you for info LjL means UK aiming for April 27th is BS | 18:58 |
| LjL | l0ndoner, the UK hasn't even stopped all work activities yet, and they are not doing good | 18:58 |
| LjL | i think numbers went down a bit today though | 18:59 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, i may have a workaround: in Covidly's data, now that Italy's total are wrong (by having only half of today's increment), the rolling "0" has not yet changed, it's still showing the increment from yesterday. so maybe you should only update when you actually see a change in the rolling data, even if the totals change before that time | 19:00 |
| l0ndoner | was listening to breakfast TV this morning and some epidemiology proffesor was saying Austria partial lifts its restrictions tomorrow UK could follow suit April 27th | 19:01 |
| LjL | l0ndoner, well anyhow, between now and april 27, we'll have plenty of time to show if the downward trend in the UK's curves is real | 19:02 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, (that doesn't hold true for the England data, those just look wrong) | 19:04 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, maybe "if subnational_increment(country) > national_increment(country): continue and ignore this crap" as a sanity check? | 19:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +4504 cases (now 1888321), +552 deaths (now 117490) — Turkey: +2046 cases (now 61049) — Italy: +1576 cases (now 159516), +283 deaths (now 20465) | 19:09 |
| usur | He went to sleep asymptomatic and did not wake up. | 19:21 |
| LjL | ? | 19:22 |
| LjL | 18<20l0ndoner18> united kingdom and England two different things ← i know that much, but the increment in England can't logically be bigger than the increment in the United Kingdom | 19:23 |
| usur | sailor on the TR aircraft carrier , will dear leader attend Arlington funeral | 19:23 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +2895 cases (now 1891216), +218 deaths (now 117708) — US: +2478 cases (now 565801), +189 deaths (now 22880) — Indiana, US: +308 cases (now 8236) | 19:23 |
| aradesh | LjL: i suppose a region could be updated, and then the larger area updated later? | 19:27 |
| LjL | aradesh, sure, but we *had* an update for the whole of the UK today, it is on Public Health England, and it's ~4000, not ~6000 | 19:28 |
| aradesh | ah. | 19:28 |
| aradesh | l0ndoner: is the UK thinking of reducing lockdown measures soon? it seems kind of silly to be thinking that when we're pretty much at our worst position currently | 19:29 |
| aradesh | surely you need to wait for it to be down to like... 100 new cases a day | 19:29 |
| LjL | aradesh, they're thinking april 27. the curve may change a lot by then | 19:29 |
| LjL | we will see. every country is really waiting and seeing | 19:30 |
| LjL | there are no deadlines, there are just provisional dates | 19:30 |
| aradesh | swedens curve seems pretty good considering they're barely doing anything | 19:31 |
| aradesh | could it be perhaps that a lot of swedes, and companies there, are taking actions by themselves? | 19:31 |
| usur | apparently there are catching 1/2 of 10 that are actually positive , so get ready for a long wait | 19:31 |
| aradesh | 1/2 of 10? so 5? | 19:32 |
| aradesh | or, as in, 5%? | 19:32 |
| LjL | %cases sweden | 19:33 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In all areas, Sweden, there are 10948 cases (0.1% of the population) and 919 deaths (8.4% of cases). 54700 tests were performed (20.0% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Sweden for time series data. | 19:33 |
| LjL | not a good death rate, though | 19:33 |
| LjL | so either testing too little, or dying too much | 19:33 |
| aradesh | it's not good but | 19:33 |
| aradesh | their curves are slowing down a little | 19:33 |
| aradesh | is what i mean | 19:33 |
| danielp3344 | %cases maryland | 19:33 |
| Brainstorm | danielp3344: In Maryland, US, there are 8936 cases (0.1% of the population) and 262 deaths (2.9% of cases). 51751 tests were performed (17.3% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Maryland for time series data. | 19:33 |
| LjL | aradesh, it seems like... everybody's curves are slowing? okay i'm sure there are exceptions (japan?) but it's a bit weird | 19:33 |
| rager | death rates can be indicators of undertesting | 19:34 |
| rager | that suggests undertesting | 19:34 |
| rager | either that, or an overwhelmed medical system | 19:34 |
| rager | %cases iran | 19:34 |
| Brainstorm | rager: In all areas, Iran, there are 73303 cases (0.1% of the population) and 4585 deaths (6.3% of cases). 275427 tests were performed (26.6% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 2.1% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 9.1% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Iran for time series data. | 19:34 |
| danielp3344 | lol | 19:34 |
| rager | russia's only getting started | 19:35 |
| rager | %cases russia | 19:35 |
| Brainstorm | rager: In all areas, Russia, there are 18328 cases (0.0% of the population) and 148 deaths (0.8% of cases). 1.3 million tests were performed (1.4% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Russia for time series data. | 19:36 |
| LjL | Australia's curve is flattening in a similar way to Korea or China. that is, in a good way | 19:36 |
| LjL | other countries are much more tentative in their slowdown... | 19:36 |
| l0ndoner | Death figures are important but its all about hospital beds they think most counties have hit the curve.. Funny enough America has come out best | 19:36 |
| rager | nobody knows how China's progression is going | 19:36 |
| l0ndoner | countries* | 19:36 |
| LjL | rager, nobody knows how any country's "real" progression is going. | 19:37 |
| genera | well now that Ischgl is closed its easy for everyone to have flat curves ^^ | 19:39 |
| genera | plus soccer plus carnival | 19:39 |
| rager | how does a town lose all its vowels like that? | 19:40 |
| rager | austria's doing a shelter-in-place? | 19:41 |
| genera | i hear they lock the lockdown | 19:42 |
| l0ndoner | Austria is lifting some restrictions tomorrow | 19:43 |
| softwarerero[m] | How long everybody has to stay in quarantine in a worst case scenario: https://quarantine.softwarerero.now.sh | 19:48 |
| bin_bash | not clicking | 19:48 |
| bin_bash | nice advertising spam | 19:48 |
| softwarerero[m] | What? That's no advertising or spam. I simply combined different data sources and did some simple statistics. | 19:49 |
| danielp3344 | bin_bash: it's actually just some really bad math | 19:51 |
| MetaNova | not just bad math, bad grammar, too | 19:51 |
| genera | lets call it a study | 19:51 |
| bin_bash | bro, you joined an irc channel and without saying anything you just linked to your own website (which is the same as your nick). | 19:51 |
| bin_bash | don't be sorry | 19:52 |
| danielp3344 | but yeah that is a bit sketchy... | 19:52 |
| rager | linear extrapolation? | 19:53 |
| genera | well, matrix | 19:53 |
| danielp3344 | genera: hey now | 19:54 |
| genera | :-) | 19:54 |
| softwarerero[m] | My rammar might be bad (I'm not a native English speaker) and the maths might be simple but it's accurate and it is a worst case. @rager Yes linear which is how it progresses in many countries with strict quarantine rules. | 19:55 |
| danielp3344 | softwarerero: I think it should be exponential no? | 19:55 |
| danielp3344 | look at all the curves so far | 19:55 |
| softwarerero[m] | @da | 19:56 |
| softwarerero[m] | Daniel Peterson: That is different in different countries. I am from Paraguay and we have 0 to 3 cases daily for the last month. | 19:56 |
| rager | at linear is easy to write | 19:57 |
| LjL | the math may not even be wrong | 19:58 |
| LjL | (also let's not all attack people like that people) | 19:58 |
| LjL | thing is, no country is expecting to just wait those amounts of time and get herd immunity | 19:59 |
| LjL | the expectation is we can get it down to a level where we can go back to doing contact tracing | 19:59 |
| LjL | or that we can lift some of the lockdown measures, and modulate them | 19:59 |
| LjL | or that we can do on-again-off-again lockdowns | 19:59 |
| LjL | and it is also that we will eventually find a vaccine or at least a reasonably effective treatment | 19:59 |
| usur | might have to cull few million of the 'herd' | 20:01 |
| paula_thomas[m] | Yeah linear extrapolation - most models are exponential early on only turning linear very late in the absence of counter measures! Oh and doesn't take into account the diffusion term. hmm I think @softwarerero:matrix.org may not know of what s/he speaks | 20:02 |
| Flaviker | !covid уса | 20:06 |
| CoronaBot | ,01[ERR] Не найдено! | 20:06 |
| Flaviker | !covid usa | 20:06 |
| CoronaBot | USA: Global rank: #1, cases: 574,206 (+13,906), fatalities: 22,962 (+857), active cases: 517,490, total recovered: 33,754, in a serious condition: 12,547. Mortality: 4.00%, case fatality rate: -, cases/1M: 1735.0, deaths/1M: 69.0. Case rate: 27,421/24h, death rate: 1,528/24h. Tests: 2,905,701, tests/1M: 8,778. | 20:06 |
| sternenmusik[m] | Get rid of the 🤡 | 20:10 |
| LjL | ? | 20:11 |
| LjL | %u 🤡 | 20:12 |
| Brainstorm | U+1F921 CLOWN FACE (🤡) | 20:12 |
| LjL | sternenmusik[m], what exactly are you asking? | 20:12 |
| rager | osrry | 20:13 |
| rager | sorry | 20:13 |
| rager | I mean, sorry, softwarerero | 20:13 |
| l0ndoner | Anyone here using there pcs for Rosetta@Home studying covid-19? | 20:18 |
| Butterfly^ | https://www.hln.be/nieuws/binnenland/waarom-heeft-belgie-zo-n-hoog-dodental-sterftecijfers-vergelijken-met-andere-landen-is-niet-eenvoudig~a6cb9403/ | 20:18 |
| Butterfly^ | Van Gucht emphasizes that reporting in other countries is currently not done in the same way. For example, Spain and the Netherlands do not count the suspected deaths in retirement homes. In Spain, it is estimated that the actual number of deaths is two to three times higher. | 20:18 |
| Butterfly^ | in Belgium, one retirement home had 13 deaths last year in the previous 30 days, while this year only 11 deaths, yet, all those 11 deaths were counted as corona deaths | 20:19 |
| Butterfly^ | UK also doesn't count corona deaths in retirement homes or deaths that happen at home | 20:20 |
| l0ndoner | anywhere outside hospital | 20:21 |
| l0ndoner | nor WHO | 20:21 |
| LjL | Italy does in theory, but in practice directors of several nursing homes are reporting that patients are dying without ever getting tested, and others are dying simply because the personnel themselves are getting infected and cannot take care of the patients anymore | 20:22 |
| LjL | and the deaths vs normal deaths numbers are not like Belgium :\ | 20:22 |
| LjL | yuriwho, says California is conducting large-scale anybody tests here https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/los-angeles-county-launches-large-scale-covid-19-antibody-study-n1182031 but very scant on any details | 20:24 |
| Butterfly^ | people in retirement homes are also dying without tests here, yet, are still counted as corona the vast majority of times | 20:25 |
| Butterfly^ | English translation to the link i posted, crappy pastebin format, but the content is there :) https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=nl&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://pastebin.com/SGXkjqdU&usg=ALkJrhioi-TJWJUIQ_Umvh7K15RPTNsZGA | 20:26 |
| LjL | here it was said clearly (yesterday, i believe) that people only enter the deaths tally if they were tested (post-mortem too, i presume, but i don't think that's happening often or at all) | 20:27 |
| calbasi_matrix | At last, it will be as simple like comparing this year deaths with an average of last years... | 20:27 |
| Butterfly^ | ^ that will help, but will still not give a perfect picture | 20:28 |
| calbasi_matrix | Data provided is always understimate | 20:28 |
| Butterfly^ | much better picture than we have right now though | 20:28 |
| Butterfly^ | seems like Belgium is overestimating | 20:28 |
| LjL-Matrix | the article makes it sound to me like Belgium is more like... correctly estimating, and the others are underestimating | 20:29 |
| LjL-Matrix | which is more in line with what basically everyone has been saying about Italy and Spain anyway | 20:29 |
| Butterfly^ | underestimating is a dangerous practice right now, people will get more lax with following corona lockdown measures | 20:29 |
| calbasi_matrix | Maybe that's why they have a worse situation, comparing with Holland, even with more strict social distancing measures... | 20:30 |
| Butterfly^ | right | 20:30 |
| Butterfly^ | i've read yesterday that UK also isn't counting deaths happening in retirement homes or at home | 20:30 |
| Butterfly^ | anyone got an idea on how US is counting deaths in retirement homes or deaths at home? | 20:31 |
| calbasi_matrix | <LjL-Matrix "which is more in line with what "> Here in Catalonia (Spain, Barcelona), last days Coronavirus deaths are 100/day. And the number of retirement old people death and NOT count as Coronavirus are between 80-90 daily, most of them due an not certified covid-19. | 20:31 |
| Butterfly^ | deaths in retirement homes aren't tested here as far as i know | 20:32 |
| Butterfly^ | no reason to waste a test when the person has already died when there's a shortage of tests | 20:33 |
| Butterfly^ | not sure if there's still too little tests available, so maybe tests after death is changing slowly | 20:33 |
| LjL-Matrix | well, yes, that's a rationale, but that's probably why China started allowing clinical diagnoses as well as tests (the famous spike) | 20:34 |
| LjL-Matrix | because there is a scientific as well as public-disclosure need to say how many actual cases and deaths there are | 20:35 |
| Butterfly^ | some deaths that were put in Belgian statistics were deaths that happened 3 weeks ago | 20:35 |
| LjL-Matrix | and yet, everybody's criticizing China's numbers are "unreal", while if anything, there's only a bit of debate on how various countries in Europe are counting them | 20:35 |
| LjL-Matrix | well, if they happened, they happened | 20:35 |
| Butterfly^ | retirement home deaths, they're usually not the quickest in sending out those statistics, and were having trouble enough as it is to get enough staff on the floor, so some numbers were quite late | 20:36 |
| LjL-Matrix | they should get into the tally, better late than never | 20:36 |
| Butterfly^ | right | 20:36 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for World: +5781 cases (now 1901570), +341 deaths (now 118455) — France: +3109 cases (now 136779), +282 deaths (now 14967) — US: +1827 cases (now 570740) | 20:38 |
| Butterfly^ | USA is ranked ~#50 when it comes to tests / million population | 20:40 |
| Butterfly^ | France is ~#65 | 20:40 |
| Butterfly^ | but test numbers aren't that great of a stat to look at, deaths give a much clearer picture, if only every country counted deaths roughly the same way, which clearly isn't true | 20:41 |
| \n3p\ | Butterfly^, it's easy to test a lot of % population in a little populated countries | 20:42 |
| usur | yeah also ones that actually have tests | 20:43 |
| usur | and aren't riddled with ignorance | 20:43 |
| Butterfly^ | \n3p\ : a country should however be able to do roughly the same amount of tests no matter how big the population is, if your country is bigger, you should have more safety nets to adequately react to a crisis like this | 20:43 |
| Butterfly^ | Germany has 3x more hospital beds than the US, Germany has been handling corona greatly, taking in ICU corona patients from France and Italy, and even sending 60 free ventilators to the UK, even though they're not an EU member anymore | 20:44 |
| Butterfly^ | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_beds | 20:45 |
| softwarerero[m] | in rural countries sick people need to travel a few hundred kilometers to see a doctor | 20:45 |
| \n3p\ | Butterfly^, random testing could give you a best national picture than testing a lot. | 20:46 |
| Butterfly^ | UK has cut 50000 doctors/nurses in the last 10 years, before corona happened, they said they were gonna add 50000, they're building field hospitals, but who's gonna man them? | 20:46 |
| Butterfly^ | \n3p\ : Belgium started testing on anti-bodies about 7-10 days ago, starting with hospital staff, that way, if one of those staff has a single symptom that could be related to corona, but they have anti-bodies, they don't need to be sent home for 2-3 weeks | 20:48 |
| Butterfly^ | test takes just a few minutes | 20:49 |
| \n3p\ | Butterfly^, Yes in that case anti-bodies is a better testing method. | 20:50 |
| usur | Butterfly^: they just 'can't afford' to take care of their citizens and buy back stock | 20:50 |
| Butterfly^ | once hospital staff is all tested, they'll start with other most essential jobs, grocery store employees, certain crucial factories/companies, ... | 20:51 |
| Butterfly^ | 1 million tests by December is the goal | 20:51 |
| Butterfly^ | (that's 10% of our population) | 20:51 |
| Butterfly^ | with the average household being 3-4 people, you get a good idea on 30-40% of the population being immune or not | 20:52 |
| \n3p\ | usur, you are confused | 20:52 |
| usur | n3p jubilee it is ! https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/03/23/a-debt-jubilee-is-the-only-way-to-avoid-a-depression/ | 20:54 |
| Butterfly^ | retirement home staff is being tested as hospital staff, although hospital staff at a faster rate | 20:54 |
| Albright | There's a "Corona Zombies" exploitation/horror film already. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VqhT6PAipew | 20:55 |
| \n3p\ | lol | 20:56 |
| nixonix | i dont understand, staff that has a single symptom is tested for antibodies? why not pcr. it takes 2-3 weeks from infection for antibodiest to appear. when they have syptoms, pcr should show if they have the infection with high reliability if the test is good an validated | 20:59 |
| nixonix | then those antibody tests have high percentage of false positives | 20:59 |
| nixonix | https://unherd.com/2020/04/how-far-away-are-immunity-passports/ | 21:00 |
| nixonix | %title | 21:00 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix, the URL could not be loaded | 21:00 |
| nixonix | How far away are ‘immunity passports’? | 21:00 |
| Butterfly^ | nixonix : they're testing ALL hospital staff | 21:01 |
| Butterfly^ | symptoms or no symptoms | 21:01 |
| Butterfly^ | once hospital staff is tested and is known to have corona antibodies, they're able to keep working instead of having to quarantine if they cough just once | 21:02 |
| \n3p\ | But they different kind of test and serve different purposes | 21:02 |
| nixonix | except they dont know for high certainty, if those antibodies are really from sars-cov-2 or from other coronaviruses | 21:03 |
| nixonix | because the specifity of antibody tests is around 95%, even with better tests | 21:03 |
| nixonix | so they cant be used for individual information. only for community information | 21:04 |
| \n3p\ | It will be ironic if some zero-positive to coronavirus antibodies resulted in a dead from COVID-19 | 21:05 |
| nixonix | antibody tests for them is good because it gives that community information. but still pcr is needed for them that have symptoms (unless its confirmed that they previously have had sars-cov-2 infection, and cured) | 21:05 |
| Butterfly^ | \n3p\ anything that helps to get a better picture on the situation is a bonus | 21:06 |
| Butterfly^ | if 70% of people have antibodies, reduction in lockdown can slowly be tried out | 21:07 |
| Butterfly^ | (we're far away from 70% obviously, and we might not need to reach that percentage at all, i just typed a random number) | 21:07 |
| \n3p\ | Butterfly^, agree. The best information we could have the best decisions we could take | 21:07 |
| nixonix | then if the community has higher level of past infections, and antibody tests are a bit better, it gives information with more certainty. eg if 30% has had it, and specifity of test is 3%, it would be around 90% sure case, if it shows positive | 21:07 |
| nixonix | but thats rarely a situation, prob not even in lombardy hospitals i think | 21:08 |
| Butterfly^ | antibodies tests are produced rather quickly, and the tests only take a few minutes, you could set up a drive-through station to test lots of people while still following corona lockdown regulations | 21:09 |
| nixonix | (except that for hospital workers, most those 30% would probably been previously confirmed with pcr tests...) | 21:10 |
| Butterfly^ | they want to test 100% of hospital staff | 21:11 |
| nixonix | yeah they are fast, but for those "should or should he sent home or not" decisions using the result would be using it like immunity passport, which is a big mistake | 21:11 |
| Butterfly^ | it'll be tested on small scale first, and only when there's an absolute shortage of hospital staff | 21:12 |
| Butterfly^ | as long as we can still manage even while sending staff home when they have symptoms, we'll likely keep doing that | 21:12 |
| Butterfly^ | 50% of ICU beds are still free | 21:12 |
| nixonix | so lets give some of them a "perhaps immunity passport". yes, its only right eg. 25% of the time, but its better than nothing... | 21:13 |
| Butterfly^ | if there is a shortage of staff, and you have tested everyone for antibodies, they'll first send in the youngest staff who have tested to have antibodies | 21:13 |
| nixonix | ok, so they better the odds a bit | 21:14 |
| nixonix | if they understand, that it only reduces the risks, but is no way near a guarantee of previous infections, i guess its ok | 21:14 |
| Butterfly^ | yeah obviously, they still won't be allowed to work without PPE obviously | 21:14 |
| Butterfly^ | and those with symptoms could do other jobs temporarily, like manning the phones (can be done from home sometimes) | 21:15 |
| Butterfly^ | it's about having options when the worst case scenario could happen, and using whatever option there is to limit the risks | 21:15 |
| Butterfly^ | [4NPR - Science] WHO Says COVID-19 Immunity Is An Unknown; Disease '10 Times Deadlier' Than 2009 Flu https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/13/833534116/who-says-covid-19-immunity-is-an-unknown-disease-10-times-deadlier-than-2009-flu?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=science 2020-04-13T15:01:36 | 21:31 |
| tinwhiskers | I'll check it out later on LjL. I don't have any internet right now (just brief pockets of connectivity every 30 mins or so). You can use http://offloop.net/covid19/?legacy=yes access the other data set | 21:40 |
| livebrain | so in 2008 financial crisis we had to cut spending ... | 21:41 |
| livebrain | now with this crisis we have to spend ALOT | 21:42 |
| Butterfly^ | can't spend if you're not making money | 21:42 |
| Butterfly^ | can't make money if people are not spending | 21:42 |
| Butterfly^ | we're in a shitty situation | 21:42 |
| Butterfly^ | 2008 didn't have such impact on jobs | 21:43 |
| Urchin | but, what do you really have to spend on | 21:44 |
| Urchin | food, energy, communications, medical supplies, in that order | 21:44 |
| noodleheadz_98 | I agree | 21:44 |
| Urchin | no travel, and no showing off expensive junk, the horror | 21:45 |
| livebrain | Urchin: even food you need modey | 21:45 |
| livebrain | money | 21:45 |
| livebrain | food is not free | 21:45 |
| livebrain | if ppl dont work, food starts to be an "showing off" thing | 21:46 |
| Urchin | I mean, most of the economy deals with luxuries anyway | 21:48 |
| livebrain | you dont buy a huge tv every month | 21:49 |
| livebrain | not even every year | 21:49 |
| livebrain | but you spend thousends of food every year | 21:49 |
| rager | "2008 didn't have such impact on jobs" - tell that to the people who hit the job market around then | 21:57 |
| Butterfly^ | did 30 million people lost their jobs in 1 month time ? | 21:59 |
| Butterfly^ | in US alone? | 21:59 |
| Butterfly^ | 30 million is an estimate of mine, last number i heard was 17 million, but the sites/phonelines to apply for unemployment has been overloaded for weeks, so the actual number is likely quite a bit higher | 22:00 |
| Butterfly^ | who knows how much unemployment will be reached by June | 22:03 |
| livebrain | if you need to spend to fix a crisis | 22:03 |
| livebrain | 2008 should be the same | 22:03 |
| livebrain | but on another scale | 22:03 |
| livebrain | less unemployed = less spending | 22:03 |
| Butterfly^ | i think spending at the bottom can have better effects | 22:03 |
| livebrain | but 2008 = cut back spending | 22:04 |
| mefistofeles | https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/07/2004999117 can somebody tell me the difference between that work and the one from nextstrain.org ? or is it just UK wanting to feel special? xD | 22:07 |
| Butterfly^ | https://www.businessinsider.com/spain-universal-basic-income-coronavirus-yang-ubi-permanent-first-europe-2020-4?r=DE&IR=T Spain is moving to establish permanent basic income in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic | 22:07 |
| Butterfly^ | this will be interesting to see how that works out | 22:07 |
| ecks | "She said enacting basic income was "mostly aimed at families, but differentiating between their circumstances."" | 22:08 |
| ecks | so UBI not not universal? lol | 22:08 |
| ecks | but not* | 22:08 |
| Butterfly^ | Spain already had an unemployment problem, UBI could be just what they need, less money wasted in bureaucracy to force people into jobs they don't want to do and won't hold for long, while just giving the people 500 euro cash every month, no questions asked, you want to work? sure, you still keep the 500, so even low paying jobs will give you a decent monthly wage, which might help to actually get people | 22:09 |
| Butterfly^ | to find jobs | 22:09 |
| Albright | %data united states | 22:20 |
| Brainstorm | Albright: Sorry, united states not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 22:20 |
| Albright | %data usa | 22:20 |
| Brainstorm | Albright: Sorry, usa not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 22:20 |
| Albright | %data america | 22:20 |
| Brainstorm | Albright: Sorry, america not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 22:20 |
| sternenmusik[m] | <Butterfly^ "Spain already had an unemploymen"> I am in favor of a system in which people either commit to being available to the labor market for a fixed period of time and receiving basic income when they are out of work and in which people commit to not working and receiving basic income for a fixed period of time I am strictly for forbiding tu se people undeclared w pi rk. undeclared work. I am furthermore for | 22:25 |
| sternenmusik[m] | the sub entrepreneurship is no longer allowed and I am for the fact that there must be at least minimum wages. All other regulations regarding the labor market and so on remain unaffected. | 22:25 |
| sternenmusik[m] | * I am in favor of a system in which people either commit to being available to the labor market for a fixed period of time and receiving basic income when they are out of work and in which people commit to not working and receiving basic income for a fixed period of time I am strictly for forbiding people undeclared wundec work. I am furthermore for the sub entrepreneurship is no longer allowed and I am for the | 22:27 |
| sternenmusik[m] | fact that there must be at least minimum wages. All other regulations regarding the labor market and so on remain unaffected. | 22:27 |
| sternenmusik[m] | * I am in favor of a system in which people either commit to being available to the labor market for a fixed period of time and receiving basic income when they are out of work and in which people commit to not working and receiving basic income for a fixed period of time I am strictly for forbiding people undeclared work. I am furthermore for the sub entrepreneurship is no longer allowed and I am for the fact | 22:27 |
| sternenmusik[m] | that there must be at least minimum wages. All other regulations regarding the labor market and so on remain unaffected. | 22:27 |
| LjL | oh god. this gateway "feature" won't do, can't do | 22:28 |
| sternenmusik[m] | Anytime I do post you appear now? 😂 | 22:31 |
| LjL | when you edit a message (twice) it is re-posted every time on IRC. and this was a long message that takes *two* messages up on irc | 22:32 |
| LjL-Matrix | this is how your single message shows up on my IRC, so yeah, i'm definitely gonna notice it and "appear"... | 22:33 |
| LjL-Matrix | this bridge turning every edit into a new message is just not okay | 22:33 |
| LjL-Matrix | i wish i could disable edits entirely | 22:33 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Millennials Don’t Stand a Chance | They’re facing a second once-in-a-lifetime downturn at a crucial moment. (10082 votes) | https://redd.it/g0ki01 | 22:35 |
| sternenmusik[m] | <LjL-Matrix "this is how your single message "> Got it, thanks for the explanation, problem with a longer text is that I cant see what I do correct because its hidden behind the keys 🤷🏻♂️ | 22:37 |
| LjL-Matrix | https://github.com/matrix-org/matrix-appservice-irc/issues/1026 | 22:39 |
| dividediff[m] | Anyone have any favorite youtube channels about spain/italy in english? news related. Specifically, i want to know how life is changing their now that they've both seemingly passed peak corona | 22:48 |
| dividediff[m] | LjL: i feel like you may know about italy eng news vid source | 22:59 |
| LjL | i saw the question, but no, i don't | 22:59 |
| LjL | i follow news in italy either from local TV when i happen to be watching it, or because something random comes up on reddit | 23:00 |
| LjL | r/italy may give you suggestions | 23:00 |
| dividediff[m] | LjL: ty anyway | 23:00 |
| dividediff[m] | good idea! | 23:01 |
| sternenmusik[m] | To be honest I dont expect Italy and Spain to assure hygienic conditions and behaviours, fact is the hygienic conditions detoriate from north to south,. | 23:02 |
| LjL | ok | 23:02 |
| LjL | cite that fact | 23:02 |
| LjL | with evidence | 23:02 |
| sternenmusik[m] | MRSA percentage,... evidence as requested. | 23:06 |
| LjL | okay so the UK is southern, i get it | 23:08 |
| LjL | and one of the baltics is somehow a lot more southern than another | 23:08 |
| LjL | you know what's another thing italians do badly | 23:09 |
| sternenmusik[m] | No, but the hygienic conditions in UK hospitals are as bad as in the south. | 23:09 |
| LjL | same with france, uh? | 23:09 |
| LjL | also belgium, so southern | 23:09 |
| \n3p\ | Coronavirus: Ecuador Finds Nearly 800 Dead at Home in Guayaquil City | 23:10 |
| AimHere | Given that CV isn't something that generally requires surgery, wouldn't the hygiene manifest itself as Covid patients dying of secondary infections? | 23:10 |
| \n3p\ | Coronavirus: Ecuador Finds Nearly 800 Dead at Home in Guayaquil City https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2020/04/12/retiraron-mas-de-700-cadaveres-de-las-viviendas-de-guayaquil-epicentro-del-coronavirus-en-ecuador/ | 23:10 |
| AimHere | If we want to honestly test this hypothesis, it might involve surveying death certificates of covid19 deaths | 23:11 |
| sternenmusik[m] | <LjL "also belgium, so southern"> Much more green in the north right? | 23:11 |
| LjL | i don't even know how to answer that | 23:12 |
| LjL | except | 23:12 |
| ubLIX | aww. wanted to know what the percentage was a percentage of | 23:14 |
| ubLIX | i mean, not enough to actually ask | 23:15 |
| sternenmusik[m] | <LjL "except"> I got this Information from german authority webside its not meant to be racist. If it looked liked...sorry for that. | 23:16 |
| LjL | you got the *map* from there, i assume | 23:16 |
| LjL | you didn't get the "information" that "the hygienic conditions detoriate from north to south" | 23:16 |
| LjL | that just sounds like your own bias that you put into that map | 23:17 |
| LjL | which doesn't clearly correlated north to south and only looks at one specific phenomenon | 23:17 |
| LjL | instead you say that "to be honest" <specific countries here> will be unable to be hygienic | 23:17 |
| sternenmusik[m] | <LjL "you got the *map* from there, i "> Of course its on Google analytics you asked and I found it with in seconds. | 23:17 |
| LjL | you're entirely missing the poin | 23:18 |
| LjL | i don't want you here | 23:18 |
| LjL | leave | 23:18 |
| sternenmusik[m] | I want to help humanity thats wrong? | 23:18 |
| \n3p\ | Study: Coronavirus Fatality Rate Lower than Expected, Close to Flu’s 0.1% https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/11/why-a-study-showing-that-covid-19-is-everywhere-is-good-news | 23:18 |
| LjL | sternenmusik[m], outrageously xenophobic remarks are not going to help humanity | 23:19 |
| rager | Now is not the time to trot out old nationalist tropes | 23:20 |
| rager | "Germany, Germany above all..." | 23:20 |
| LjL | \n3p\, can't read that without subscribing, but in the past years i haven't heard of hospitals being overloaded multiple times their capacity, or for that matter, crematoriums being overloaded | 23:20 |
| sternenmusik[m] | <LjL "sternenmusik, outrageously xenop"> Ok, then let me think before I write next time. | 23:20 |
| LjL | good idea | 23:21 |
| rager | I wonder if anyone has tried to link "austerity" measures with health out comes | 23:21 |
| \n3p\ | LjL, Neither do I. I share the articule with skepticism | 23:23 |
| LjL | \n3p\, yeah. it might not be a coincidence it's the economist. i don't really know how they are politically aligned, but... in general, some "economists" want to make this seem like not a big deal, so that the Economy can continue unhindered | 23:24 |
| LjL | wool on the eyes | 23:24 |
| ubLIX | rager: isn't mockingly saying "germany above all" also a nationalist trope | 23:24 |
| ubLIX | ..that you are not going to repeat here again | 23:24 |
| iz | spain trying to do a partial restart now, w/ some workers going back to work | 23:25 |
| iz | kinda curious how that is gonna work out | 23:25 |
| LjL | iz, why good grief, why. their curve is actually going down in a somewhat convincing way. let it continue to do so | 23:25 |
| iz | %cases spain | 23:25 |
| Brainstorm | iz: In all areas, Spain, there are 169569 cases (0.4% of the population) and 17621 deaths (10.4% of cases) as of 5 minutes ago. 600000 tests were performed (28.3% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Spain for time series data. | 23:25 |
| \n3p\ | LjL, that is highly probable | 23:25 |
| iz | i know, i feel like it's probably a bad idea, but i guess it will be a lesson for the rest of the world either way | 23:25 |
| iz | 600k tests performed, 47 million people | 23:26 |
| \n3p\ | More politicians and economist are talking last days of the need to restar economy. Spain did it today partially | 23:27 |
| iz | https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/13/europe/spain-lockdown-covid-19-lockdown-eased-intl/index.html | 23:27 |
| iz | i think the reality for everyone is the best we can hope for are staged/partial restarts at this point, and even those are pretty sketchy | 23:28 |
| iz | i think a lot of govt/economist types are expecting things to just go back to normal again in a few weeks :/ | 23:29 |
| sternenmusik[m] | <iz "i think a lot of govt/economist "> It should look like the public life returns to as it was before the COVID-19 pandemic... | 23:38 |
| iz | yeah, but that won't be happening any time soon, i don't think | 23:41 |
| sternenmusik[m] | <sternenmusik[m] "It should look like the public l"> Just my opinion, it would be better for economy/existing governments, if the public dont see much of the measurements taken in behind. | 23:41 |
| iz | sure, if that were possible, but they are directly in opposition w/ each other | 23:42 |
| iz | social distancing is the only tool we have and you can't use that w/out the public knowing about it | 23:42 |
| iz | but if a cure grew on a tree, that would be great too | 23:43 |
| sternenmusik[m] | <iz "yeah, but that won't be happenin"> ... agree, I dont have reliable numbers and there are so many variables,... its a very Volatile situation. | 23:43 |
| iz | well, just consider the total population vs how many have been infected so far | 23:44 |
| iz | or even the total population vs how many have been tested in that country so far | 23:44 |
| Butterfly^ | https://www.axios.com/trump-coronavirus-reopening-governors-states-3ce510ff-cd94-4b4a-89b8-58d8bca5d69f.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=organic&utm_c Trump says decision on coronavirus reopening belongs to him, not governors | 23:45 |
| iz | less than 1% of the population will not provide any type of herd immunity | 23:45 |
| LjL | sternenmusik[m], are you seriously advocating keeping the "numbers" (i.e. people sick and dying) secret from the population, and pretending it's business as usual? | 23:47 |
| sternenmusik[m] | <LjL "sternenmusik, are you seriously "> Not at all. | 23:47 |
| LjL | > Just my opinion, it would be better for economy/existing governments, if the public dont see much of the measurements taken in behind. | 23:47 |
| LjL | what did this mean? | 23:48 |
| sternenmusik[m] | <LjL "> Just my opinion, it would be b"> It does mean at day x when public life should be "normal" there is still a lot of work to be done which is not seen by the general public. Petsonally I think the general public should be informed properly, but I dont expect this to happen. | 23:52 |
| LjL | ah | 23:54 |
| pyna | the only way to stop trump briefings from infecting more people is to turn off or close the media carrier immediately until they lose advertising dollars. now that we have real good ways of attention tracking it should work pretty quick | 23:54 |
| pyna | if we all just ignore trump for 2 weeks he'll wither away into a spore | 23:56 |
| ubLIX | hope springs eternal | 23:57 |
| pyna | for the first time in my adult life, i am using a hair tie, and have a ponytail | 23:59 |
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