| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 22:00 UTC: Australia news: Coronavirus Australia update latest: WA residents wake up to loosened restrictions as 1 million download tracing app – live news → https://is.gd/AyuH1w | 00:05 |
|---|---|---|
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test)* at 22:04 UTC: CoronaVirus_ITALIA: Se la Fase 2 fosse applicata anche in Corea del Nord... → https://is.gd/vBnKQR | 00:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 22:15 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus US live: Maryland's Republican governor concerned over Trump's 'mixed messages' → https://is.gd/An3qCt | 00:19 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +2237 cases (now 985535) since an hour ago — New York, US: +637 cases (now 293991) since 4 hours ago — Colorado, US: +473 cases (now 13441) since 13 hours ago | 00:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 22:26 UTC: Australia news: Coronavirus Australia update latest: WA residents wake up to loosened restrictions as 1 million download tracing app – live news → https://is.gd/AyuH1w | 00:34 |
| Butterfly^ | https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/donald-trump-coronavirus-disinfectant/ | 00:51 |
| Butterfly^ | James O'Brien's brilliant response to Donald Trump's disinfectant comments | 00:51 |
| ubLXI | Butterfly^: we are having indefinite moratorium on invocation of that subject | 00:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 22:43 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Spain's daily death toll drops below 300 as children allowed out for first time in weeks → https://is.gd/RgVzz3 | 00:55 |
| LjL | ubLXI, technically it was until i went to sleep, which i did, although it took me a couple of hours to actually fall asleep | 01:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 22:55 UTC: /u/slakmehl: The COVID Tracking Project su Twitter: "Our daily update is published. We’ve now tracked 5.4 million tests, up 257k from yesterday. Another huge testing day. 4/22 was a clear inflection point. Note that we can only track tests that a state reports. For details, see: https://t.co/PZrmH4bl5Y… [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/PZsBky | 01:02 |
| ubLXI | well | 01:04 |
| mefistofeles | 5.4 million tests, nice | 01:08 |
| friedbat | We'll have to wait and see if the Spanish and Italian death trends persist into Monday and Tuesday. I hope so, they've had enough. But it could just be that Monday we'll see all the reports that weren't done over the weekend. | 01:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 22:56 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Spain's daily death toll drops below 300 as children allowed out for first time in weeks → https://is.gd/RgVzz3 | 01:09 |
| friedbat | 5.4 million in the US? | 01:10 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: yes | 01:10 |
| friedbat | oh nvm, just saw the bot message you were commenting on. | 01:10 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: GOP Maryland governor warns state received "hundreds of calls" asking if it's OK to ingest Clorox after POTUS’ disinfectant remarks (10236 votes) | https://redd.it/g8he9n | 01:10 |
| friedbat | i think my brain has sort of begun ignoring some of these bot messages | 01:11 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: yes, it happens | 01:11 |
| mefistofeles | I ignore them for the most part | 01:11 |
| friedbat | on this latest coronabot message. you know an interesting graphic, plot the pro or anti sentiment of the governor reporting the increase in clorox calls. | 01:12 |
| mefistofeles | but sometimes you get some useful info from it | 01:12 |
| friedbat | mefistofeles: yeah, definitely. i'm not doing it consciously. my brain is just doing it on its own. | 01:12 |
| friedbat | mefistofeles: do you recall if it was TWiV 605 that discussed the skin issues? | 01:15 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: let me check | 01:18 |
| mefistofeles | oh, there's a new one with clinical briefing | 01:18 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: it was 603, btw | 01:19 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: they don't get into numbers or such, but they just say that many patients are getting dermatological problems | 01:20 |
| friedbat | mefistofeles: thanks | 01:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 23:32 UTC: Australia news: Coronavirus Australia update latest: WA residents wake up to loosened restrictions as 1 million download tracing app – live news → https://is.gd/AyuH1w | 01:38 |
| Tramtrist | on japanese tv they talk about avigan like its the miracle cure | 01:44 |
| Tramtrist | all day | 01:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews at 23:33 UTC: worldnews: EU report on Chinese, Russian coronavirus disinformation watered down after pressure from Beijing: reports → https://is.gd/s0yPjY | 01:45 |
| Tramtrist | or Favipiravir i guess its also called | 01:46 |
| friedbat | unfortunately very little evidence it works | 01:46 |
| Tramtrist | アビガン | 01:46 |
| Tramtrist | everyday all day.. abigan | 01:46 |
| atheodo | hi | 01:53 |
| atheodo | anybody has any news about a treatment other than what the television is talking about? | 01:53 |
| Toadisattva | injecting lysol isn't a good enough treatment for you :P | 01:56 |
| LjL | Toadisattva, plese don't take this the grond way but given things that happened, i'd really like to stop hearing about that | 01:58 |
| LjL | atheodo, honestly there is no treatment that's *shining* as clearly superior to any other yet that i'm aware of | 01:58 |
| LjL | remdesivir was the one with the best chance in a recent review, but then there was a debacle related to it, so i don't know | 01:58 |
| LjL | i think it is likely that really, really effective treatments won't be repurposed existing medicines, but something new | 01:58 |
| LjL | but that will take more time | 01:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 23:50 UTC: Australia news: Coronavirus Australia update latest: WA residents wake up to loosened restrictions as 1 million download tracing app – live news → https://is.gd/AyuH1w | 01:59 |
| friedbat | i was also a bit hopeful on early remdesivir news and then that bubble popped | 01:59 |
| atheodo | friedbat yes the remdesivir news broke my heart too, and also they are saying even vaccine might not be the answer since we don't know if antibodies mean immunity | 02:00 |
| nb | atheodo, so, have they found any evidence that antibodies do not mean immunity? or is it just "we don't know either way yet?" | 02:02 |
| friedbat | they don't know either way | 02:02 |
| nb | pl | 02:02 |
| nb | ok | 02:02 |
| atheodo | they kept saying last night they don't know yet, so we cannot assume either way we still in square 1 | 02:02 |
| friedbat | the confusion is because of the way WHO originally issued their notice. they're incompentent so they fucked it up. | 02:02 |
| friedbat | then they clarified | 02:02 |
| atheodo | that WHO is a joke I cannot believe it has come to this | 02:03 |
| atheodo | and this virus has been on the lose since dec 2019 | 02:03 |
| atheodo | and now we are all so impacted | 02:03 |
| Toadisattva | haven't they been successfully treating people with plasma from recovered patients in some places? | 02:03 |
| LjL | atheodo, it's true, we don't know yet, but it's reasonable to believe antibodies confer immunity until shown otherwise | 02:03 |
| LjL | whether it's long-lived immunity is another matter | 02:03 |
| LjL | but even if it isn't, well, in theory the worst that would mean for a vaccine is we'd have to take it repeatedly | 02:04 |
| LjL | which isn't great, because it's going to be hard enough to produce *one* batch for all of humanity | 02:04 |
| LjL | but it also doesn't mean a vaccine won't work | 02:04 |
| friedbat | here's WHO tried to undo their screw-up | 02:04 |
| friedbat | https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1254160937805926405 | 02:04 |
| nb | wow | 02:04 |
| mefistofeles | Toadisattva: yes, there have been so polyclonal antibodies treatments, but that doesn't scale well... also I don't think they have given conclusive results, as usual | 02:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 00:01 UTC: /u/slakmehl: Nate Silver su Twitter: "An encouraging day. Lots of tests! Fewest deaths since 4/6. Lowest share of positives* since 3/16. * Since some states don't report negative tests at the same time they report positives, it's really more like "ratio of newly reported positives to all newly reported tests"." → https://is.gd/0hp03f | 02:06 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: they never screwed up, people just like to misinterpret what WHO says, specially on tweets | 02:07 |
| mefistofeles | https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/immunity-passports-in-the-context-of-covid-19 | 02:07 |
| mefistofeles | I mean, never screwed up regarding this, they have in other things | 02:07 |
| mefistofeles | twitter is the perfect mixture of short messages not suited to explain details and whole lotta people trying to get details from them and bitching when they fail | 02:08 |
| friedbat | mefistofeles: yes, if you bothered to read the entire brief. but most people read small headlines. and WHO's tweet was idiotic. and news agencies ran with it. | 02:09 |
| friedbat | https://static.abplive.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/26153747/WHO-d.jpg | 02:09 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: fair enough, I assume they deleted that one? | 02:10 |
| friedbat | they did | 02:10 |
| mefistofeles | cool | 02:11 |
| friedbat | but not before the entire planet had run the story | 02:11 |
| mefistofeles | well, if the entire planet source is a tweet, well deserved | 02:11 |
| friedbat | yes, a tweet from the world health organization | 02:11 |
| mefistofeles | even then | 02:12 |
| mefistofeles | you shouldn't make any news story/article based on a tweet, and specially ignoring what the same tweet points to as source | 02:12 |
| mefistofeles | but yet again, it's the frequent thing | 02:12 |
| friedbat | i agree with your view of how an ideal world behaves | 02:12 |
| mefistofeles | media news bitching about some institution or politician tweets | 02:13 |
| friedbat | i'm just explaining how real life happens | 02:13 |
| mefistofeles | *about what | 02:13 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: yes, we agree in the long run | 02:13 |
| mefistofeles | I understand | 02:13 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: https://apnews.com/de2794327607a3a67ed551f0b6b71404 may find that interesting | 02:16 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Study: 71 percent of jobless Americans did not receive their March unemployment benefits (10469 votes) | https://redd.it/g8lgbv | 02:17 |
| mefistofeles | apparently there was a big deal of negligence in the Lombardy deaths | 02:17 |
| Tramtrist | the WHO took down the tweet related to that i think | 02:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 00:01 UTC: Australia news: Coronavirus Australia update latest: WA residents wake up to loosened restrictions as 1 million download tracing app – live news → https://is.gd/AyuH1w | 02:19 |
| Tramtrist | the.. you do not get immunity with post infection antibody statement | 02:19 |
| friedbat | interesting. the AP says covid could've been circulating since early january | 02:19 |
| mefistofeles | Tramtrist: yes, that's what we said :) | 02:19 |
| ketas | i wonder how much it would reverse the results if i grab same dirty phone after washing hands | 02:19 |
| friedbat | yet the official chinese timeline has the first case on december 26 | 02:19 |
| friedbat | interesting. the AP says covid could've been circulating since early january in lombardy | 02:19 |
| Tramtrist | oh sorry i was reading the backlog and commenting mefistofeles haha | 02:20 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: it probably was, there have been cases in USA from people that got it from Europe since early January | 02:20 |
| friedbat | mefistofeles: so the chinese timeline is nonsense then | 02:20 |
| mefistofeles | in the CES convention at Las Vegas | 02:20 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: no, the timeline is just related to testing, the actual peak is way earlier than the testing/confirmed peak | 02:20 |
| mefistofeles | don't cite me on that :P | 02:20 |
| mefistofeles | but that's my suspicion | 02:20 |
| friedbat | no, i mean the chinese timeline provided on their patient zero | 02:21 |
| mefistofeles | the correlation between testing and cases is too high, so, if we had exponential testing, we get exponential confirmed cases, but that doesn't mean real exponential spread... specially considering how many asymptomatic cases there are | 02:21 |
| mefistofeles | and the antibodies data | 02:21 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: ooh, not sure about that, what's your reasoning? | 02:22 |
| friedbat | i would have to look through my notes but i recall china officially said the first 3 cases of novel pneumonia dec/26 | 02:22 |
| friedbat | reported in HUCWM Hospital by Dr Zhang | 02:22 |
| friedbat | then on Dec/31 Wugan Health alers China CDC and WHO | 02:23 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: I've seen many concluding that it appeared in mid or early November | 02:23 |
| mefistofeles | even from chinese papers | 02:23 |
| friedbat | ok, so then the "official | 02:23 |
| friedbat | ok, so then the "official" chinese timeline is nonsense | 02:23 |
| ynjhof[m] | Does getting an IV usually leave a dark wmark on the elbow | 02:23 |
| mefistofeles | well, again, that's the confirmed case | 02:23 |
| mefistofeles | when you get a confirmed case it means there are many asymptomatic ones already, most likely | 02:24 |
| tinwhiskers | there could be technicalities involved such as "confirmed" status vs. just symptoms, like everywhere else. | 02:24 |
| tinwhiskers | (I'm speculating) | 02:24 |
| mefistofeles | and for China the ratio would be even higher, imho, since they were really not expecting this | 02:24 |
| Tramtrist | is there any consensus on the current data coming from china and if it's reliable or not? | 02:25 |
| ubLXI | friedbat: how does circulation in Lombardy in January lead to 'Chinese time line is nonsense'? I'm not following you? | 02:25 |
| mefistofeles | ubLXI: I guess it would mean that it was already spreading in the community in China | 02:26 |
| ubLXI | why would it mean that? | 02:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 00:20 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Singapore reports 931 new cases, global numbers above 2.9 million → https://is.gd/OP653D | 02:26 |
| mefistofeles | ubLXI: hmmm, well, unless you believe patient 0 (or someone close to it) travelled to Italy around the same time, which is less likely.... also because the strain from Italy/Europe is different from that of China | 02:27 |
| mefistofeles | I guess different enough | 02:28 |
| tinwhiskers | Tramtrist: what we do know is that data coming from almost everywhere is unreliable. whether china is better, worse, maliciously so or otherwise is unknown. | 02:28 |
| ubLXI | are you saying different enough to be not associated with China? | 02:28 |
| mefistofeles | ubLXI: to not be the same from the first cases in China, yes... at least that's what I get from the nextstrain summaries | 02:28 |
| mefistofeles | but may have to review those | 02:29 |
| ubLXI | so how does circulation in Lombardy relate to the credibility of the time line China, again? | 02:29 |
| tinwhiskers | Tramtrist: the "excess deaths" approach gives an idea of how unreliable the data is in most places: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries | 02:29 |
| LjL | mefistofeles, | 02:29 |
| LjL | > As a result, primary care physicians became the front-line filter of virus patients, an army of mostly self-employed practitioners who work within the public health system but outside Italy’s regional hospital network. | 02:29 |
| Tramtrist | yes ive seen that tinwhiskers | 02:30 |
| LjL | i think this small thing, in itself, contributed a lot to the fallout in Lombardy | 02:30 |
| tinwhiskers | ok | 02:30 |
| LjL | Veneto is set up differently | 02:30 |
| Tramtrist | normally id say having a free press helps with spreading statistical info that can be audited | 02:30 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: I see | 02:30 |
| Tramtrist | but.. in this case.. the governments have/control all the data so | 02:30 |
| Tramtrist | china may be no better than any other | 02:30 |
| mefistofeles | ubLXI: yeah, true, I don't really see the connection that easily, it seems like a big leap | 02:30 |
| Tramtrist | governments around the world do whats in their best interests | 02:31 |
| mefistofeles | how to infer credibility on China numbers from numbers in Italy | 02:31 |
| tinwhiskers | Tramtrist: I'm less cynical than you about that. In my home country of New Zealand we tend not to feel that way about our government as much as other places, but I'm sure you're right to some degree. | 02:32 |
| ubLXI | is it all that is being said here is that onset of recording (of novel virus) in China doesn't account for apparent circulation in Lombardy? | 02:32 |
| mefistofeles | now, if it really started in early-mid november as many say, I guess it fits late december as peaking and really starting killing people in significantly high numbers (specially for flu season and new virus) | 02:32 |
| Tramtrist | Well.. i dont know if its cynical more than experience.. noone has the data except the ones collecting it and theres really no open way to verify it | 02:33 |
| Tramtrist | when you have one source like that.. you never know | 02:33 |
| mefistofeles | and I think it's consistent with other countries (specially touristic ones, Italy or USA) to get it since early january | 02:33 |
| tinwhiskers | Tramtrist: well, I don't want to devolve into a political discussion about it, but your experience in your country is likely different from my experience in my country. | 02:34 |
| Tramtrist | western institutions will eventually out the info | 02:34 |
| Tramtrist | ya not political.. Im seeing the same thing in Japan and US | 02:34 |
| Tramtrist | countries with nationalist tendancies will push the narative that suits them .. its normal | 02:35 |
| Tramtrist | anyway.. no big deal | 02:35 |
| mefistofeles | AP news is a good discovery from the pandemic :P | 02:36 |
| mefistofeles | I didn't know that one before all of this | 02:37 |
| LjL | Associated Press is... slightly big | 02:37 |
| ynjhof[m] | Did you find the archive youtube channel | 02:37 |
| ynjhof[m] | It will be full of contradictions by the end of the year | 02:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews at 00:22 UTC: worldnews: Argentina invited citizens to sign proclamation to welcome Cuban medical aid workers and those of any other nationality and to oppose United States' campaign against Cuba's policy of solidarity with world. They acknowledged during pandemic, "we will need more medical and nursing personnel." → https://is.gd/taiyjS | 02:40 |
| friedbat | There was an expose on the Cuban doctors thing, I forget by who, I think Australian reporters | 02:41 |
| friedbat | iirc, these reporters claimed that the Cuban government essentially forces Cuban doctors into the most remote and dangerous places and pays them very little. The money goes from the UN to Cuba directly, and the government pockets most of the cash. | 02:42 |
| dzho | https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/05/04/seattles-leaders-let-scientists-take-the-lead-new-yorks-did-not | 02:44 |
| friedbat | https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-48214513 | 02:44 |
| friedbat | that story is from early 2019, but i've heard more horror stories recently. | 02:44 |
| tinwhiskers | dzho: how refreshing! | 02:45 |
| mefistofeles | newyorker reads are commonly good but I'm skipping this one, too long ;) | 02:45 |
| dzho | yeah, like a spritzer | 02:45 |
| dzho | mefistofeles: lol | 02:46 |
| tinwhiskers | that is a little long :-) | 02:46 |
| dzho | suit yourselves | 02:46 |
| mefistofeles | dzho: with hazmat suits | 02:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 00:35 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Boris Johnson back in Number 10 as Trump denies he plans to fire health secretary → https://is.gd/JAjIWs | 02:47 |
| mefistofeles | dzho: don't get me wrong, thanks for sharing | 02:49 |
| mefistofeles | but I don't have the energy right now haha | 02:49 |
| ynjhof[m] | Good thing about covid is I should be able to move to anywhere in NZ without much trouble once the total lockdown ends - it actually makes it easier to move house after | 02:52 |
| ynjhof[m] | >Provided my covid test returns negative tomorrow | 02:53 |
| mefistofeles | ynjhof[m]: got tested? nice | 02:53 |
| mefistofeles | !corona New Zealand | 02:53 |
| CoronaBot | New Zealand: Global rank: #75, cases: 1,470, fatalities: 18, active cases: 310, total recovered: 1,142, in a serious condition: 1. Mortality: 1.22%, case fatality rate: 1.55%, cases/1M: 305.0, deaths/1M: 4.0. Case rate: 9/24h, death rate: 0/24h. Tests: 120,981, tests/1M: 25,088. | 02:53 |
| tinwhiskers | ynjhof[m]: interesting. how does that work? | 02:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews at 00:35 UTC: worldnews: Belgians urged to eat frites twice a week to deplete coronavirus potato mountain → https://is.gd/ofCtHL | 02:54 |
| ynjhof[m] | But fk it, even if it doesnt still going to organise some living arrangement move. | 02:55 |
| ynjhof[m] | tinwhiskers there will likely be less travel interest so I can go somewhere like hamilton, and it will have relatively few new visitors so my odds of getting a place I like should be better | 02:55 |
| tinwhiskers | oh, I see | 02:55 |
| ynjhof[m] | As people will want to stay in their current city or with family | 02:56 |
| ynjhof[m] | *near family | 02:56 |
| mefistofeles | nybody know how the f... Singapore manages to have such a small number of deaths? | 02:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test)* at 00:56 UTC: CoronaVirus_ITALIA: Piú di un milione di download per la APP di contact tracing Australiana. → https://is.gd/nuOUT2 | 03:02 |
| ynjhof[m] | %cases new zealand | 03:02 |
| Brainstorm | ynjhof[m]: In all areas, New Zealand, there are 1470 total cases (0.0% of the population) and 18 deaths (1.2% of cases) as of 16 minutes ago. 115015 tests were performed (1.3% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.4% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 1.6% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=New%20Zealand for time series data. | 03:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 01:02 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Singapore reports 931 new cases, global numbers above 2.9 million → https://is.gd/OP653D | 03:09 |
| ynjhof[m] | tinwhiskers any ideas for good places to move to? I have gastro problems and have to get separated living / no co-dwellers | 03:09 |
| ynjhof[m] | Just randomly* asking, idk you might have somewhere in mind you'd think is good | 03:10 |
| tinwhiskers | not really. I recently moved overseas away from NZ. Prior to that I was going to head up to the far north or great barrier island. | 03:10 |
| tinwhiskers | I think my next move will be far beyond the shores of NZ but I'll probably go home to die. This whole affair has somewhat mucked up my ideas though. | 03:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 01:05 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Boris Johnson back in Number 10 as Trump denies he plans to fire health secretary → https://is.gd/JAjIWs | 03:16 |
| ynjhof[m] | Lol, yeah. | 03:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 01:30 UTC: Australia news: Coronavirus Australia update latest: Victoria to test 100,000 people in two weeks as 1 million download tracing app – live news → https://is.gd/AyuH1w | 03:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 01:49 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Singapore reports 931 new cases, global numbers above 2.9 million → https://is.gd/OP653D | 03:51 |
| mefistofeles | ooh, Australia already with working tracing app | 03:52 |
| LjL | of course they made it as privacy invasive as possible | 03:52 |
| ynjhof[m] | How many facebook buttons does it have | 03:53 |
| mefistofeles | https://www.health.gov.au/resources/apps-and-tools/covidsafe-app | 03:57 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: I guess, it doesn't give much details (more details in FAQ) | 03:57 |
| mefistofeles | the basic idea is similar to others but details on how are things encrypted and such are not there | 03:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 01:53 UTC: Australia news: Coronavirus Australia update latest: Victoria to test 100,000 people in two weeks as 1 million download tracing app – live news → https://is.gd/AyuH1w | 03:59 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: ok, so my suspicion is that the keys fro encrypting are in the servers for this one | 04:01 |
| mefistofeles | for* | 04:01 |
| mefistofeles | and that they use the mobile phone number as seed | 04:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 02:22 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Singapore reports 931 new cases, global numbers above 2.9 million → https://is.gd/OP653D | 04:27 |
| Urchin | %data croatia | 04:36 |
| Brainstorm | Urchin: In all areas, Croatia, there are 2030 total cases (0.0% of the population) and 55 deaths (2.7% of cases) as of 2 minutes ago. 31622 tests were performed (6.4% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.9% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 4.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Croatia for time series data. | 04:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 02:36 UTC: Australia news: Coronavirus Australia update latest: Victoria to test 100,000 people in two weeks as 1 million download tracing app – live news → https://is.gd/AyuH1w | 04:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test)* at 02:40 UTC: nCoV: Sunday 26 April Global inequalities (RT 18:55) | 26APR20 → https://is.gd/Jk04kY | 04:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 02:56 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Boris Johnson back in Number 10 as Trump denies he plans to fire health secretary → https://is.gd/JAjIWs | 05:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 03:15 UTC: Australia news: Coronavirus Australia update latest: Victoria to test 100,000 people in two weeks as 1 million download tracing app – live news → https://is.gd/AyuH1w | 05:17 |
| LjL | "nice" animograph https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1712761/embed | 05:28 |
| stinkpot | wow ljl | 05:34 |
| tinwhiskers | why does the number go down at times? | 05:36 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, dunno, must be from covidly | 05:36 |
| tinwhiskers | heh | 05:36 |
| LjL | but seriously it's daily deaths, it shows them as moving smoothly but we know they donät so much | 05:37 |
| tinwhiskers | ok | 05:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 03:51 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Singapore reports 931 new cases, global numbers above 2.9 million → https://is.gd/OP653D | 06:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 03:59 UTC: Australia news: Coronavirus Australia update latest: Victoria to test 100,000 people in two weeks as 1 million download tracing app – live news → https://is.gd/AyuH1w | 06:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 04:21 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Singapore reports 931 new cases, global numbers above 2.9 million → https://is.gd/OP653D | 06:28 |
| eleklytr[m] | !cases global | 06:34 |
| CovBot | My data doesn't seem to include global. It might be under a different name, data on it might not be available or there could even be no cases. You may have more luck if you try a less specific location, like the country it's in. | 06:35 |
| CovBot | If you think I should have data on it you can open an issue at https://github.com/pwr22/covbot/issues and Peter will take a look. | 06:35 |
| ytlyv9 | https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/world-map.html | 06:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 04:45 UTC: Australia news: Coronavirus Australia update latest: Victoria to test 100,000 people in two weeks as 1 million download tracing app – live news → https://is.gd/AyuH1w | 06:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 05:00 UTC: Hospitals: UK doctors finding it harder to get PPE kit to treat Covid-19 patients, research reveals → https://is.gd/gwp362 | 07:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 05:15 UTC: National Australia Bank: National Australia Bank launches $3.5bn capital raising as earnings hit by coronavirus → https://is.gd/pvzaN8 | 07:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 05:17 UTC: European markets poised for higher open as investors look for further lockdown easing: European markets are expected to open higher Monday as investors around the world await central bank meetings this week that could decide further stimulus measures to reboot economies deeply damaged by the coronavirus pandemic. → https://is.gd/lsjX2f | 07:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 05:30 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Boris Johnson returns to work as New Zealand prepares to ease lockdown → https://is.gd/JAjIWs | 07:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 05:42 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Boris Johnson returns to work as New Zealand says it has 'avoided the worst' → https://is.gd/JAjIWs | 07:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 06:00 UTC: Pandemic jeopardises support for world's poor as charities lose millions: British government urged to plug shortfall as Oxfam and Christian Aid reveal huge financial impact of Covid-19 outbreak → https://is.gd/ncCcFo | 08:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 06:11 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Singapore reports 931 new cases, global numbers above 2.9 million → https://is.gd/OP653D | 08:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 06:19 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Boris Johnson returns to work as New Zealand says it has 'avoided the worst' → https://is.gd/JAjIWs | 08:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 06:24 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Singapore reports 931 new cases, global numbers above 2.9 million → https://is.gd/OP653D | 08:29 |
| weimarnetzbot[m] | !cases moon | 08:50 |
| CovBot | My data doesn't seem to include moon. It might be under a different name, data on it might not be available or there could even be no cases. You may have more luck if you try a less specific location, like the country it's in. | 08:50 |
| CovBot | If you think I should have data on it you can open an issue at https://github.com/pwr22/covbot/issues and Peter will take a look. | 08:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 06:50 UTC: Business: Stock markets rally as some countries prepare to ease Covid-19 lockdowns - business live → https://is.gd/Qeq6Q0 | 08:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 07:04 UTC: European markets open higher as investors look for further lockdown easing: European markets opened higher Monday as investors around the world await central bank meetings this week that could decide further stimulus measures to reboot economies deeply damaged by the coronavirus pandemic. → https://is.gd/lsjX2f | 09:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health at 07:22 UTC: (news): Coronavirus: Boris Johnson back at Downing Street to lead response → https://is.gd/WC6bdp | 09:26 |
| Urchin | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GeQSWPHsZIA | 09:32 |
| mefistofeles | %t | 09:32 |
| Brainstorm | mefistofeles: From www.youtube.com: Coronavirus update Apr 27: US State of Emergency for 2+ MORE months! - YouTube | 09:32 |
| mefistofeles | uh, interesting | 09:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 07:25 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: UK coronavirus live news: Boris Johnson back at work amid talk of easing lockdown → https://is.gd/iiYlnO | 09:33 |
| mefistofeles | interestingly enough, we are in a kind of linear regime rigt now | 09:34 |
| mefistofeles | as it's moving towards latin america, I guess their sooner lockdown measures help that | 09:34 |
| mefistofeles | Urchin: pretty broad prediction, though | 09:39 |
| mefistofeles | that really doesn't consider the testing rate, which is pretty related to new cases | 09:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 07:32 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Singapore preliminarily reports 799 new cases, global numbers above 2.9 million → https://is.gd/OP653D | 09:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 08:01 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Italia → https://is.gd/5wscC7 | 10:02 |
| ap4lmtree | why do peple say the worst is over with coronavirus when i feel and my inituition tells me the worst is yet to come | 10:05 |
| ap4lmtree | do you guys think the worst is over too? | 10:05 |
| Urchin | ap4lmtree: not at all | 10:07 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Russia: +6198 cases (now 87147) since 22 hours ago — US: +1787 cases (now 987322) since 9 hours ago — Brazil: +1212 cases (now 63100), +81 deaths (now 4286) since 11 hours ago | 10:07 |
| ap4lmtree | the worst is yet to come because since opening everywhere and there is inadequate testing everywhere, everyone will get infected and then lots of people will die and then all of this was for only delaying the deaths | 10:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test)* at 08:07 UTC: CoronaVirus_ITALIA: Che effetto sta avendo davvero la quarantena sull'ambiente → https://is.gd/0wrJhH | 10:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 08:07 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus live news: Boris Johnson returns to work as New Zealand says it has 'avoided the worst' → https://is.gd/JAjIWs | 10:16 |
| tinwhiskers | ap4lmtree: we may have seen the highest rates of daily deaths in many places so in that regard maybe the worst is behind us, but we may only have reached a small portion of total deaths, so in that regard we may well be yet to see the worst. In terms of the economy, we're yet to see the worst. | 10:19 |
| bildramer | the economic disaster hasn't even fully started yet | 10:20 |
| bildramer | I don't know how exactly this facade has gone on for entire weeks but it can't keep itself up indefinitely | 10:21 |
| tinwhiskers | [21:21:19] <+b300cctinwhiskers> Now that we are getting reports of the supply chain failing in the US that may well become a self-fulfilling prophecy. I wouldn't be surprised to see people start hoarding in the near future. | 10:22 |
| mefistofeles | ap4lmtree: it depends on what country you are talking about | 10:25 |
| mefistofeles | for the bigger Europeans countries the worst in terms of infection peak and deaths is probably passed, but yeah, there are still many more cases and deaths to come, until there's a good treatment or vaccine the numbers will continue increasing | 10:26 |
| tinwhiskers | It's also likely that opening up states that have not really had much of a problem until now will cause them much worse problems than they have seen so far. | 10:28 |
| mefistofeles | yeah, I can see that happening | 10:29 |
| mefistofeles | and Latin America and Africa pretty much went for supression, so the bad exponential part hasn't really started for some of them | 10:30 |
| tinwhiskers | Yeah | 10:30 |
| mefistofeles | hopefully they are getting ready for it in the meantime | 10:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 08:22 UTC: Boris Johnson: Boris Johnson: UK beginning to turn the tide on coronavirus → https://is.gd/MumCrN | 10:30 |
| friedbat | mefistofeles: there's only so much they can do | 10:31 |
| friedbat | most of them are impoverished nations with terrible hospitals, bad doctors, faulty equipment, etc. | 10:31 |
| friedbat | having a 2-3 month lead time isn't enough to address centuries of underdevelopment | 10:32 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: it depends, but yeah, that's more common there | 10:32 |
| friedbat | their only hope, honestly, is for developed nations to come up with good therapeutics before they hit their peaks down south | 10:32 |
| tinwhiskers | They still need to try to reduce the size of that peak through social distancing, etc. | 10:34 |
| friedbat | and i suspect that as northern hemisphere countries pass their peak, that though research into therapies will continue, it won't have the urgency of march/april | 10:35 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: no, it's not that bad | 10:35 |
| friedbat | thinking back to sars1, there was so much interest in vaccines and therapeutics and then when the pandemic ended in asia and never really took off elsewhere, that money and interest into solutions dried up | 10:35 |
| mefistofeles | they will never have it as bad as USA, even if really poor... just because they did the distancing with time | 10:36 |
| friedbat | i don't know | 10:36 |
| mefistofeles | well, I mean, not all of them, regardless of how poor they are compared to the USA | 10:36 |
| friedbat | if all they did is temporarily delay, what happens when they lift the quarantines? | 10:36 |
| friedbat | they can't stay shut forever. they're poor. they'll die of hunger. | 10:36 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: it would be gradual so even there it should be spreading less efficiently | 10:37 |
| friedbat | they are nowhere near herd immunity, if such a thing even exists. so what happens in may when they lift the quarantine and they enter winter months? | 10:37 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: most of them don't really have winter | 10:37 |
| friedbat | people don't have running water in some places, they pack into crowded buses, etc | 10:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 08:34 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Singapore preliminarily reports 799 new cases, global numbers above 2.9 million → https://is.gd/OP653D | 10:38 |
| friedbat | sure they do, there is a winter where it goes to 10C or lower | 10:38 |
| friedbat | what is wintertime in uruguay like? | 10:38 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: yes, those in the very south do have it | 10:38 |
| mefistofeles | also there are cities in the mountains with cold-ish wweather all the year | 10:39 |
| friedbat | it doesn't need to be super cold for it to take ~off | 10:39 |
| mefistofeles | I'm fairly sure that for most of them is not as bad as you put it, fwiw | 10:39 |
| friedbat | look at new orleans | 10:39 |
| mefistofeles | now, for some of them it would be terrible, indeed | 10:39 |
| friedbat | and like ecuador proved, it also doesn't take much to overwhelm hospitals there | 10:40 |
| friedbat | i mean look at italy, it's a developed nation. look at nyc, wealthy as hell. | 10:40 |
| mefistofeles | didn't take much for NY or Milan either | 10:40 |
| friedbat | if that hits la paz, bolivia, they're fucked | 10:40 |
| mefistofeles | so not sure what that means | 10:40 |
| friedbat | that's my point | 10:40 |
| friedbat | if countries and places with a very solid medical infrastructure can get crushed | 10:41 |
| friedbat | imagine similar in countries with fragile hospitals systems | 10:41 |
| mefistofeles | in fact, some of the big cities in Latin America have more beds (per capita) than NYC | 10:41 |
| mefistofeles | in ICUs | 10:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 08:38 UTC: UK's Boris Johnson warns 'this is the moment of maximum risk' as he returns to work after recovering from coronavirus: As the U.K.'s Prime Minister Boris Johnson returns to work on Monday after recovering from the coronavirus, there is mounting pressure on his government to set out and implement a lockdown exit strategy. → https://is.gd/8wdnb8 | 10:45 |
| mefistofeles | but we'll have to see, I hope this doesn't git them as hard | 10:47 |
| mefistofeles | it really got Europe and USA unprepared | 10:47 |
| mefistofeles | *hit | 10:47 |
| friedbat | it goes without saying that we all hope it doesn't hit them (or anyone else hard) | 10:51 |
| friedbat | but i think it's naive optimism to think they'll have an ok time | 10:51 |
| friedbat | maybe you're being optimistic because you're from latin america? | 10:52 |
| friedbat | are you from there? | 10:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 08:41 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: UK coronavirus live news: Boris Johnson says too early to ease lockdown as second peak would be disaster → https://is.gd/iiYlnO | 10:52 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: I'm not optimistic, I just don't see it as bad as you | 10:52 |
| friedbat | are you from there?> | 10:52 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: yes | 10:52 |
| friedbat | that's what i thought | 10:52 |
| friedbat | i hope you're right but you're probably wrong. | 10:52 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: lol what does that eve mean? | 10:52 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: if anything I've been really critical about the latin american countries in all of these | 10:53 |
| mefistofeles | but again, that doesn't mean it as bad as you put it | 10:53 |
| friedbat | it means i think deep down you hope it doesn't hit s. america hard because you're from there or have family there. so it's wishful thinking. | 10:53 |
| mefistofeles | specially since your claims are pretty much incorrect | 10:53 |
| friedbat | look, neither of us knows, because it hasn't happened yet. we disagree on the likelihood of latin america getting hit hard. | 10:54 |
| friedbat | as for beds and icu capacity | 10:54 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: no, that's not what we disagree on | 10:54 |
| friedbat | all you need to do is look at any world bank or oecd report on this and you'll see they don't have more capacity than industrialized nations | 10:54 |
| friedbat | so yes, they went into quarantine early | 10:54 |
| friedbat | that means nothing if all they've done is delay the date of onset | 10:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 11:35 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: NHS warns of rise in children with new illness that may be linked to coronavirus → https://is.gd/bg594g | 13:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 11:48 UTC: Coronavirus US live: number of cases in America approach 1m mark: US was warned of threat from anti-vaxxers in event of pandemic Birx declines to criticise Trump and warns distancing will last months Live global updates See all our coronavirus coverage Get a fresh perspective on America – sign up to our First Thing [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/WLqfiF | 13:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 12:10 UTC: (news): Regeneron, Sanofi shut down part of arthritis drug study after trial shows benefit for only sickest coronavirus patients → https://is.gd/ksB9Nm | 14:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 12:13 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Ex-FDA chief still sees 'pervasive spread' in US, VW restarts production → https://is.gd/gKirVP | 14:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test)* at 12:29 UTC: CoronaVirusInfo: Exclusive: She's been falsely accused of starting the coronavirus. Her life has been turned upside down → https://is.gd/f2IgWW | 14:34 |
| mefistofeles | ↑ we are in the era of harassment and misinformation | 14:39 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | rough combination. | 14:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 12:38 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Ex-FDA chief still sees 'pervasive spread' in US, VW restarts production → https://is.gd/gKirVP | 14:42 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | like, if we could use harassment to fight misinformation, i'd be less upset :P | 14:42 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | the link from Brainstorm's reddit link: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/27/tech/coronavirus-conspiracy-theory/index.html | 14:42 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | phylogenetic analysis basically exonerating ms benassi: https://nextstrain.org/ncov | 14:44 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | the virus came to the US from europe, not china. | 14:44 |
| mefistofeles | heh yes | 14:44 |
| mefistofeles | but people won't care for that, they prefer the drama | 14:44 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | idiots must be harassed into submission :P | 14:45 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | i'd frame it as anti-military sentiment. | 14:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 12:49 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Global cases near 3 million, ex-FDA chief still sees 'pervasive spread' in US → https://is.gd/gKirVP | 14:56 |
| ThomCat[m] | <NoImNotNineVolt "the virus came to the US from eu"> I guess [we'll see](https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/494200-california-gov-orders-autopsies-back-to-december-to-find-out-how-long). If we have confirmed late-December/early-January COVID deaths, not sure how we can still say it came from Europe. | 15:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health at 12:53 UTC: Coronavirus alert: Rare syndrome seen in UK children: Doctors have been told to look out for a rare but dangerous reaction that may be linked to Covid-19. → https://is.gd/Uhg6AM | 15:03 |
| mefistofeles | ThomCat[m]: it depends, for those sequenced are mostly from the europeans strains | 15:06 |
| mefistofeles | ThomCat[m]: that basically points to the idea that those were the ones spreading effectively in the community in the US and not the others | 15:07 |
| mefistofeles | that said, the US patient zero may have come frim China, but that doesn't mean that was the strain being spreaded | 15:08 |
| mefistofeles | and that's what the sequencing is showing, so far | 15:08 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | ThomCat[m]: we can still say it came from europe because most of the strains that exist in the US today are strains that are from europe. | 15:10 |
| mefistofeles | yes | 15:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 13:07 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Global cases near 3 million, ex-FDA chief still sees 'pervasive spread' in US → https://is.gd/gKirVP | 15:10 |
| mefistofeles | What was the date for banning china flights again? it was weeks before banning the Europe flights, iirc | 15:11 |
| mefistofeles | so it may have been that the cases imported from China were successfully contained, but those from Europe weren't | 15:11 |
| mefistofeles | since at the time Europe wasn't also noticing the spread | 15:11 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | i don't understand how answering these types of questions is supposed to help save anyone from coronavirus :P | 15:12 |
| mefistofeles | NoImNotNineVolt: not at all, why would youe xpect that? | 15:12 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | i get the distinct feeling that some people are focused on addressing the pandemic at hand, and others are interested in an investigation into who can be blamed. | 15:13 |
| mefistofeles | but knowing when the community spread really started is important, since some data points this has peaked before (even weeks before) from what numbers show | 15:13 |
| mefistofeles | oh, yeah, pointing fingers at countries/governments/individuals won't help, at all, it would probably do more harm than anything else | 15:13 |
| mefistofeles | leaving the possibility of what we actually are seeing as the peak in the numbers is just really a peak of testing more than anything else | 15:14 |
| mefistofeles | when testing caught up with spread | 15:14 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | an overwhelming majority of the numbers aren't the result of testing, i thought. | 15:15 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | also, i thought there were significant issues with the accuracy of tests. | 15:15 |
| mefistofeles | NoImNotNineVolt: depends, the confirmed cases are from testing almost exclusively | 15:15 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | the numbers reported by hopkins include presumed positives. | 15:15 |
| mefistofeles | NoImNotNineVolt: RTPCR tests are pretty accurate, and you commonly get tested more than once in different ways | 15:16 |
| mefistofeles | one specific and other multiplex, I think | 15:16 |
| mefistofeles | so yeah, pretty accurate | 15:16 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | i don't doubt that. i meant that they're not accurate indicators of infection. | 15:16 |
| mefistofeles | the antibodies test on the other hand may not be that accurate, but not sure about that | 15:16 |
| mefistofeles | NoImNotNineVolt: what do you mean? | 15:16 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | i mean that there are high rates of false positives and false negatives when using rtpcr tests to determine whether or not a patient is infected by ncov. | 15:17 |
| mefistofeles | no, the rates aren't high | 15:17 |
| mefistofeles | the sensitivity and specificity of these tests are pretty good | 15:17 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | "pretty good" for individual level decisions. | 15:17 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | completely inadequate for population level screening. | 15:18 |
| mefistofeles | pretty good to know the numbers won't be changing more than 1% and that's in a "bad" case scenario, from what I've read | 15:18 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | i hope you're right. | 15:20 |
| mefistofeles | NoImNotNineVolt: actually, there's information missing in that, so I'm probably wrong | 15:22 |
| mefistofeles | that's from the technical biological standpoint | 15:22 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.11.20021493v2.full.pdf | 15:22 |
| mefistofeles | but the real issue is having an actual good sample, which I heard can be tricky | 15:22 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | 30% false negative rate. | 15:22 |
| mefistofeles | and also store it correctly to not having it contaminated and all that | 15:23 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | a 30% false negative rate would imply to me that test data is considerably less valuable than a clinician's medical opinion :P | 15:24 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | (further corroborating cdc guidance on tabulating covid deaths) | 15:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 13:17 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Countries start to re-open as global cases near 3 million → https://is.gd/gKirVP | 15:25 |
| ThomCat[m] | NoImNotNineVolt yeah, sorry. My sleep-deprived brain forgot we can map RNA 🤦♂️ | 15:26 |
| mefistofeles | NoImNotNineVolt: it's not that simple | 15:26 |
| mefistofeles | hmm, it depends on the testing policy which can vary a lot | 15:27 |
| mefistofeles | for example, some countries were able to have tests days apart from each other, even for negative cases | 15:28 |
| mefistofeles | if the first time it was a false negative, the second time (a week later) should give a positive almost with a 100% accuracy | 15:28 |
| mefistofeles | but yes, that means you would have to show some symptoms to actually get the testing in the first place | 15:29 |
| mefistofeles | and that there are enough test kits, etc. | 15:29 |
| mefistofeles | for many other countries or cities, that wasn't the case, evidently | 15:29 |
| mefistofeles | specially in the worse part of infection | 15:29 |
| mefistofeles | and that's why it happens what everybody knows already, that this thing is heavily undertested | 15:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 13:35 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Countries start to reopen as global cases near 3 million → https://is.gd/gKirVP | 15:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 13:42 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Tecnologia → https://is.gd/tI0fJZ | 15:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 13:44 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Countries start to reopen as global cases near 3 million → https://is.gd/gKirVP | 15:53 |
| Biep[m] | NoImNotNineVolt: so how much *are* you? Twelve volt? | 15:58 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | depends how hard i pedal | 15:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 13:57 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Veneto → https://is.gd/hJwgCf | 16:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 14:05 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Svezia → https://is.gd/X1UiT3 | 16:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 14:15 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Sport → https://is.gd/L0wcZH | 16:15 |
| LjL | 9,99Brainstorm:99,99 New99,99 from Brexit @ The Guardian at 12:24 UTC:99,99 Coronavirus outbreak:99,99 UK coronavirus live news: Boris Johnson says too early to ease lockdown as second peak would be disaster → https://is.gd/iiYlnO | 16:21 |
| LjL | Incredibly, he learned something from being sick? | 16:21 |
| iz | heh | 16:21 |
| Biep[m] | %cases world | 16:21 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Spain: +2793 cases (now 229422), +331 deaths (now 23521) since 22 hours ago — Saudi Arabia: +1289 cases (now 18811) since 23 hours ago — Iran: +991 cases (now 91472), +96 deaths (now 5806) since 23 hours ago | 16:21 |
| Brainstorm | Biep[m]: In all areas, worldwide, there are 3.0 million total cases (0.0% of the population) and 208078 deaths (6.9% of cases) as of a minute ago. 28.6 million tests were performed (10.6% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 2.3% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 19.0% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=worldwide for time series data. | 16:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 14:15 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Countries start to reopen as global cases near 3 million → https://is.gd/gKirVP | 16:22 |
| iz | %cases usa | 16:23 |
| Brainstorm | iz: Sorry, usa not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 16:23 |
| LjL | yuriwho, nefistofeles or someone: seeing Brainstorm's responses above, it's clear now my lower boundary is still too high, as it may be much more than 2/3 of cases that are undetected. Would it make any sense to take as a lower boundary the death rate (now 6.9% as deaths/cases) among the percentage of cases that tested positive (now 10.6% worldwide)? Right now that would give around 0.7% which is in line with current expectations, but I'm not sure if that's | 16:29 |
| LjL | just coincidence or there is something to it. If sampling on the tests were random, that would represent mortality among the general population. But instead I think it tends to represent fatalities among "those who were thought likely to be positive on PCR testing" (only 10.6% of them really being). | 16:29 |
| LjL | %cases us | 16:29 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In all areas, US, there are 987916 total cases (0.3% of the population) and 55425 deaths (5.6% of cases) as of 17 minutes ago. 5.5 million tests were performed (18.1% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 16:29 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: hmm, I don't think there's a "better" way to define that, imho, something like considering the rate of the country with the highest test/million_habitants seems sane... but still, you may get some noise due to faulty data (I'd think that country is Iceland or someone with similar data) | 16:39 |
| nb | %cases indiana | 16:41 |
| Brainstorm | nb: In Indiana, US, there are 15012 total cases (0.2% of the population) and 813 deaths (5.4% of cases) as of 10 minutes ago. 81708 tests were performed (18.4% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Indiana for time series data. | 16:41 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: or actually, maybe that of the lowest positive/test ratio... which again should Iceland or some country with similar data | 16:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 14:40 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: El Salvador → https://is.gd/dQ6V3P | 16:43 |
| LjL | mefistofeles: well I still want to provide something that has some connection to the specific country being queried | 16:44 |
| LjL | But yeah maybe there jist isn't any great eay | 16:44 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: yeah, the problem with that is that the worse testing the country does the higher it is, for similar trajectories of the infection | 16:45 |
| mefistofeles | but yeah, if we take something relevant to the country it may tell if hospitals are flooded or something... but not sure, not easy | 16:46 |
| LjL | Hmm yeah. I need something that goes does as deaths/cases go up, but instead this just goes the same direction | 16:46 |
| mefistofeles | we should then have ICUs beds data, etc., which I don't think would be easy to find | 16:46 |
| LjL | Goes down* | 16:46 |
| LjL | mefistofeles: not on a worldwide level. There is one worldwide site that lists "serious" cases for most countries, no idea what definition it uses or where it gets those data though | 16:47 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: ok, I think the data exists. I'd think tit has noise but maybe it works | 16:48 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: do you want me to extract it? | 16:49 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: we could do something with serious/ICUs_beds or just cases/ICUs_beds .... or maybe even deaths/ICUs_beds | 16:49 |
| LjL | mefistofeles: worldwide data on ICU? would definitely be interesting to have regardless of whether we can compute anything out of it | 16:49 |
| mefistofeles | hmm | 16:49 |
| mefistofeles | one sec | 16:50 |
| LjL | https://covidstat.info/home is the site I had in mind, maybe it just pulls data from worldometer which I haven't checked in a while | 16:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 14:47 UTC: New York City to hire 1,000 health workers in May to trace coronavirus cases, Mayor de Blasio says: Capacity to test broadly throughout the population and to trace contacts with those who test positive for Covid-19 is a crucial element of the state's plans to lift restrictions, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo have [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/VLWRqO | 16:50 |
| yuriwho | LjL: I would ignore all the early serology data. I’ll let you know when the good serology data is reliable. If you are aware of good data with publications regarding the methodology of the testing used. Please let me know and I’ll look at it starting in a bout a hour. I am buys right now. | 16:51 |
| LjL | Err, these were just the PCR tests | 16:51 |
| yuriwho | good serology data may tell us much more. | 16:52 |
| LjL | mefistofeles: it also has the people in "mild" conditions. I thought that was just the complement of the people in serious conditions, but at least for Italy, it's actually consistent with the people who are not hospitalized | 16:52 |
| LjL | yuriwho: yes it will be about time, too bad that our countries are already "reopening" before waiting for those results | 16:53 |
| yuriwho | sorry too busy, I’ll look at it in an hour | 16:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 14:51 UTC: (news): Watch live: The World Health Organization holds a press briefing on the coronavirus pandemic → https://is.gd/dMBpKN | 16:58 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: https://bpaste.net/AHPQ seems reasonable | 17:02 |
| mefistofeles | this should be interesting to see :) | 17:02 |
| mefistofeles | Ukraine seems oddly high... who knows? :P | 17:04 |
| mefistofeles | ljl-irssi: welcome to the dark side of irssi \o/ | 17:04 |
| LjL | computer just reconnected | 17:05 |
| mefistofeles | lol | 17:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 14:58 UTC: UK coronavirus live news: Sunak unveils new micro-loan scheme for businesses with £50,000 limit: Deaths rise in England, Scotland and Wales; Sage experts to be named; prime minister says UK lockdown cannot yet end as second peak would be disaster → https://is.gd/iiYlnO | 17:05 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: so, did you get the data? | 17:05 |
| LjL | mefistofeles, yes, is that hospital beds per 1k, or people hospitalized? | 17:05 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: per 1k habitants | 17:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 15:08 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: New poll finds outsized impact in New Jersey, governor warns of 'Armageddon' scenario → https://is.gd/gKirVP | 17:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 15:23 UTC: /u/slakmehl: Bloomberg - Are you a robot? → https://is.gd/7oSEkb | 17:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 15:30 UTC: /u/slakmehl: U.S. coronavirus deaths in early weeks of pandemic exceeded official number - The Washington Post → https://is.gd/vCXgFD | 17:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 15:39 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Oggi ci sarà una conferenza stampa della protezione civile alle 18 → https://is.gd/1lnHoG | 17:41 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Missouri nurse who raised concerns about lack of protective gear dies of coronavirus a week before her retirement (10692 votes) | https://redd.it/g8yrs2 | 17:45 |
| mefistofeles | aw | 17:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 15:47 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Aggiornamento numero di contagi in Italia 27 Aprile → https://is.gd/2CdmMe | 17:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 15:51 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: New poll finds outsized impact in New Jersey, governor warns of 'Armageddon' scenario → https://is.gd/gKirVP | 17:55 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | my numbers don't show that. interesting. | 17:57 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | Gov. Phil Murphy said New Jersey could be headed toward an “Armageddon” scenario, with an inability to fund public schools or pay police if it doesn’t receive more federal assistance due to the coronavirus pandemic. | 17:58 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | “Our costs are going up serving folks who have lost their jobs, small businesses that have been crushed, folks who are in the health-care system, et cetera,” he said. | 17:58 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | okay, so they're not talking about impact from an epidemiology point of view, or even from a health system point of view, but more of an economic point of view? | 17:59 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | that seems like an irresponsible headline. | 17:59 |
| mefistofeles | CNBC | 18:00 |
| mefistofeles | what can you say | 18:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 16:01 UTC: /u/slakmehl: Meg Tirrell su Twitter: ".@NYGovCuomo giving update now on NY State antibody survey: 4/27: 14.9% positive 4/22: 13.9% positive By region: NYC 4/27: 24.7% (4/22: 21.2%) Long Island 4/27: 14.4% (4/22: 16.7%) Westchester/Rockland 4/27: 15.1% (4/22: 11.7%) Rest of State 4/27: 3.2% (4/22: 3.6%) [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/EZnXhX | 18:03 |
| mefistofeles | %t https://apnews.com/fd662f6bb8445bf04f18fcb2dd37d4ac | 18:04 |
| Brainstorm | mefistofeles: From apnews.com: Asia Today: Officials: No more hospitalized Wuhan patients | 18:04 |
| pyna | US is about to do some dumb shit, better than nothing that i just managed to order 10 N95 masks | 18:04 |
| mefistofeles | pyna: you mean by loosening some of the distancng measures? | 18:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 16:06 UTC: (news): WHO warns that 'children will die' as coronavirus pandemic postpones vaccinations against other diseases → https://is.gd/vW3RC1 | 18:10 |
| mefistofeles | woah, that's a crappy situation indeed | 18:13 |
| LjL | Italy Civil Protection press conference starting now at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNRsbpp0VZY and I will take notes. | 18:14 |
| LjL | (Borrelli) Today's data show there is a decrease of ICU and hospitalization. | 18:14 |
| LjL | Total cases are 199414, +1739. | 18:14 |
| LjL | Recoveries are +1996(?), 66524. | 18:14 |
| LjL | Total number of current positives is 115813, -290. | 18:15 |
| mefistofeles | https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/23-04-2020-who-reports-fivefold-increase-in-cyber-attacks-urges-vigilance damn | 18:15 |
| LjL | 1956 patients are in ICU, -53; 23553 are hospitalized with symptoms, -1019. | 18:15 |
| LjL | Most patients are self-isolating at home, they are 83504 (79%). | 18:15 |
| LjL | Deaths are +333 today. | 18:15 |
| LjL | We have 141 million in donations as of today, and we have spent over 79 million (56% of donations) for PPEs and ventilators. | 18:16 |
| LjL | We have also created a fund for relatives of victims among healthcare workers, which is holding around 5 million so far. | 18:17 |
| LjL | 15878 volunteers are working with us today. | 18:17 |
| LjL | Pre-triage tents are 929. | 18:17 |
| LjL | A green number, 800833833, has been created for psychological assistance. | 18:18 |
| LjL | (Brusaferro) The general trend, aside from weekend drops, shows a progressive decrease. | 18:20 |
| LjL | The virus is still circulating, as there is an important number of new cases, while the deaths are mostly delayed from weeks ago. | 18:20 |
| LjL | As in the next few days we go towards caution re-opening, we will have to monitor the situation carefully. | 18:21 |
| LjL | ICU use is one of the indicators of the ability to keep infection controlled after re-opening. | 18:21 |
| LjL | (Borrelli) Questions now? | 18:21 |
| LjL | Q: About the 50 cent price cap on masks: if we go back to a somewhat normal life, do I need one of those a day? Is it only to avoid infecting others, or does it also help me not getting infected? And how do I evaluate how effective the mask is? | 18:22 |
| LjL | A: Without talking about FFP2 and FFP3 which are made for healthcare workers... 50 cents is not the only price cap, as there are two kinds of masks in our laws: surgical masks are recommended for healthcare workers, and then there are "type 1" masks, which are medical devices with specific filtering characteristics, and are recommended for the population but particularly for patients and caretakers. Then there are the non-medical masks, which are | 18:24 |
| LjL | recommended for the general population, and whose main functionality is to reduce or stop droplet emission by those wearing them; these are barriers, which were designated by art. 16. | 18:24 |
| LjL | The second things we must have in mind is that when we focus on these non-medical masks, the environments where it is useful to wear them are closed, indoors environment where it's hard to keep social distancing, like supermarkets, or public transport. | 18:25 |
| LjL | This is also true outdoors, though: if we are in the park it's not a problem, but if we're waiting at a bus stop, despite distancing, it may be good to wear a mask. | 18:25 |
| LjL | So this is the goal of these masks: a further barrier to stop droplet emissions. It must not give any false sense of security. It is an additional element, but hand washing, personal hygiene and social distancing are the main measures we must adopt. | 18:26 |
| LjL | Q: To understand better what happens afer May 4... are we going to proceed step by step and perhaps stop... [inaudible]? | 18:26 |
| LjL | A: The logic behind this expression [which I couldn't hear] is used in situations like the ones we are in where we have basic information but must mainly learn from experience. | 18:27 |
| LjL | We must use predictive models to see what impact a given measure has, we must measure what happens and learn of what we enacted obtains the results we wanted. | 18:27 |
| LjL | So I identify a measure, I simulate, then I enact it, and measure its effect in the real world. This is the simplified explanation of the expression "try and learn". | 18:27 |
| LjL | The other question I think you were implying is about perspective: step by step we want to re-open as many things as possible, while having clear that as long as the virus is circulating, as we are still in an epidemic, we must imagine a perspective where we progressively adopt measures to regain levels of "normality", which do still require respect of the rules we've said. | 18:28 |
| LjL | We know that the progression of cases is different in different areas of the countries, so we must act in precise ways. | 18:29 |
| LjL | Q: The ISS repeats in their weekly bulletin that there is a strong difference in contagion among regions. The sum of data in 17 regions is lower than Lombardy alone. Given this, how can we imagine relaxing measures on a countrywide basis, when the contagion is so different regionally? What did the scientific committee say on this? Your own report state one concept cannot be applied to the whole of Italy. | 18:30 |
| LjL | A: I believe, we have evidence, that the measures adopted countrywide are the ones that allowed us to obtain the results we are seeing today. Obviously in area with high circulation there is a decrease, where we had low circulation we have a very limited number of cases... but let's look at trends, things may change. But it's precisely having done countrywide national measurements that allowed us to spot the differences and manage different areas. | 18:31 |
| LjL | Even within regions there are important differences between provinces. | 18:32 |
| LjL | As the scientific committee we want to indicate measures for the whole country, while having a mmonitoring system on a more regional basis. | 18:32 |
| LjL | We said last time that there are about a hundred "red zones" in the countries: in those specific areas, we can intervene and isolate clusters. | 18:32 |
| LjL | It's right to have general measures, but it's also necessary to have the ability to module measures in a localized, even very localized context. | 18:33 |
| LjL | Also if there are cases where we cannot reconstruct infection chains we will need tighter monitoring. | 18:33 |
| LjL | Q: A question about tests. We've seen the data go down in the past few days, and we keep having reports from people who have had contacts with positives but are not allowed to get tested even for a long time. A couple of weeks ago, Arcuri said we'd bought 2.5 million tests, so we do have them available apparently. Where do they get stuck? | 18:34 |
| LjL | A: An answer from the point of view of when it's indicated to test: one of the indications we're sharing with the regions is to test more quickly even outside of hospital contexts. On average we are in a phase where we're doing more than 60000 tests a day. We should ensure the time between start of symptoms and testing gets shorter. | 18:35 |
| LjL | (Borrelli) I'll add that it's been several days since we last had reports of lack of testing kits. | 18:35 |
| LjL | Q: I was asking because I do understand we have them at the moment, but apparently something is still not working correctly, because we keep getting these reports from people and GPs. | 18:36 |
| LjL | A: We are also creating a document that tries to give the indication I've said: this phase should see a reduction of the uneavenness of testing. | 18:37 |
| LjL | Q: PM Giuseppe Conte said that if school re-opened now, we'd have a spike in one or two weeks. Based on scientific studies what is the issue on this? What are we doing when school re-opens? | 18:37 |
| oxalis | apparently, there are people all over the beaches in southern california, usa | 18:38 |
| oxalis | https://static.boredpanda.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/beaches-reopen-grim-reaper-1-5ea133ebc85f3__700.jpg | 18:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 16:35 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: New poll finds outsized impact in New Jersey, governor warns of 'Armageddon' scenario → https://is.gd/gKirVP | 18:39 |
| LjL | A: We're talking about mehanisms and models developed in our countries but also in other countries like the UK by Imperial College... school has many close relationships, and is related to transport and a number of issues that are not just about school itself. Models show it can become something that increases infection, and these models were developed by independent groups. Our perspective involves looking at what's happening, and then try to imagine | 18:39 |
| LjL | organizational models and school activities for the next school year that avoid the possibility of creating further spikes. | 18:39 |
| LjL | I know the Ministry of Education has a group of experts working on these scenarios, who will allow us to make some predictions which, at this time, I would not yet make. | 18:40 |
| LjL | Q: Can you clarify when the document on testing will be published? And since we can now visit our relatives... the people who have kept working during this period (like us journalists) and decide to visit their parents, elderly people... how can we be sure we haven't been in contact with the virus, even asymptomatically? Can I, as a private citizen, request to get tested before visiting a loved one? | 18:41 |
| LjL | And a question for Dr Borrelli, which I already asked two weeks ago: can we have the reports from the scientific committee, especially on red zones? | 18:42 |
| LjL | A: (Borrelli) As I said we were doing some legal checks that we have now completed. These acts are administrative and legislative acts that contain sensitive information, and we will only make them available when the state of emergency ends, or later. At this time we do not think they should be released. | 18:42 |
| LjL | (Brusaferro) This is all in progress and being worked on now. The PM himself announced that next to measures of "re-opening", there will have to be measures for monitoring. Within next Thursday we'll have recommendations, not just about tests but containing a lot of indications to help us see if we're following the right path. | 18:43 |
| LjL | About visiting other people, we've always said that the elderly are the most vulnerable people, and we must be cautious making these visits. I find it hard to imagine that it will be possible to get tested before visiting someone: you won't get a quick response from a test, so it's not the most obvious solution. | 18:44 |
| LjL | Personally I would recommend that if you are professionally exposed to contagion, even more so if you are contagious, you should visit others only very cautiously or not at all. | 18:44 |
| LjL | Q: On transparency and communication, if the decision is to make these godforsaken reports available eventually, it is trivial to observe that the sooner, the better, to exercise a right of free information. | 18:45 |
| TAA | hi | 18:46 |
| LjL | There is opacity and lack of transparency being complained about. If the president of the Task Force, Mr Colao, will kindly provide us with an opinion, we'd be glad. | 18:46 |
| TAA | hello LjL | 18:46 |
| LjL | There is also the rumor that these press conferences, which were daily at first and now twice-weekly, will be suspended entired. I hope this won't happen. | 18:46 |
| LjL | The initiative of activating a green number of psychological support is good but it will only start at the end of April, a bit late. Some people remark that there is a deficit on psychological help in response to the draconian measures that were adopted. | 18:47 |
| LjL | Why are the 20 members in the scientific committee all males? Someone could observe there is a cultural deficit wrt vulnerable people, women, children and the elderly. | 18:47 |
| LjL | And then a question for Brusaferro: you cited scientific studies, which I'm sure exist, but it looks like in most other European countries schools won't be stayed closed. So what are the scientific grounds? | 18:48 |
| LjL | A: (Borrelli) I must say again that the acts will be made available to the public as soon as opportunity will make it possible. As to President Colao, their task force activities are continuing, and it is up to him to decide when and whether to speak. Anyhow I think the work made by the scientific committee has been important, and I think we can bring the result of our work directly to the political authorities. | 18:49 |
| LjL | As to the scientific committee itself, unfortunately, the representatives are determined from their occupation: had the president of the ISS been a women, or the Head of Civil Protection, we'd have had woman representation. | 18:50 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | please, for the love of god, leave science as a pure meritocracy. | 18:50 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | or as much of one as we can have, at least. | 18:50 |
| LjL | But still, I think the subject of psychological support is being considered attentively. | 18:50 |
| LjL | (Brusaferro) I can add as to the first question that there are pediatricians and geriatricians among the experts, so there are people representing vulnerable people... The problem is some of the re-opening measures are precisely a response to their needs. | 18:51 |
| TAA | NoImNotNineVolt: he's doing a conference translation I think | 18:51 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | i support efforts to encourage women and minorities to pursue careers in STEM fields, but i don't think e.g. having quotas for panels like this is a good idea. | 18:51 |
| LjL | What we want to achieve as soon as possible is that all the functionality of the National Health Service can resume as soon as possible. | 18:51 |
| NoImNotNineVolt | TAA: most of it seems that way. it wasn't clear whether the part about the 20 committee members was a quote or opinion. | 18:52 |
| LjL | Some therapies that involve gatherings will inevitably have to be modified, or not had... but the risk, with gatherings, is high, and the difficulty in checking what's going on is also high. We must find a balance. | 18:52 |
| TAA | he's just quoting atm | 18:52 |
| LjL | On the question about schools: first thing is obviously we are a "pilot country" for many things, we are facing things before other countries. I think it's important to see with neighboring countries how re-opening will happen. | 18:52 |
| LjL | On models, there are several models, but if you think this is an important aspect, what I can promise is that in one of the next press conferences, maybe not the next one but the one after, we can go more in depth on this subject. | 18:53 |
| LjL | Q: But my question remains the same: if we are a model, how come other countries in Europe have taken opposite decisions on schools, like Sweden? | 18:53 |
| LjL | A: Sweden made choices that are very different from ours in general, but their situation with demographics and density is very different: it's a young country with a dispersed population. | 18:53 |
| LjL | When we look at Spain, France, their policies aren't being very different from our own. | 18:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 16:52 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: USA → https://is.gd/mhBTpW | 18:54 |
| LjL | Keep in mind that we have allowed certain things: some school exams will be held in person, but what we have cautioned against is gathering in relatively small classrooms for long periods, as well as what going to school and back entails: public transport, metro trains... | 18:55 |
| LjL | Even in universities, we are re-opening some laboratories, but lectures with indoors gatherings for hours are a different matter. | 18:55 |
| LjL | Aside from northern countries having a different culture and a different organization of life... think of the concept of an extended family in Italy, which is organized differently in other countries... this has a meaning. | 18:56 |
| LjL | Q: On contagion trends, when can there be relaxations of lockdowns on a regional basis, what's the time horizon? | 18:56 |
| LjL | A: I am always cautious on giving dates, partly because it's my personality and partly because we need solid data. We are working towards it, but we need valid data. The approach that has been proposed so far is one national scenario, with regionally different monitoring. When we have that, we can shape interventions. | 18:57 |
| LjL | Mobility we are allowing is mostly about production activities. If we went a step further, we'd have to consider inter-regional mobility, and at that stage the regional differences would matter less. | 18:58 |
| LjL | If you remember, at first, some clusters in central and southern Italy were generated from people coming from northern regions. | 18:58 |
| LjL | The way the virus infect hasn't changed, we have changed our phase in the epidemic. | 18:58 |
| LjL | Modelling these passages requires strong monitoring, and that is what we're moving towards. | 18:58 |
| LjL | When that is consolidated then we can start allowing ourselves more degree of freedom, while making sure there is not a increase in cases that overloads the system. There will be an increase, but it must be contained. | 18:59 |
| LjL | Q: A further clarification on "try and learn" approach: between May 4 and 18, some measures will be put in place, and PM Conte even made a prediction about June 1... but if the curve keeps going out, what does the scientific committee expect to do? Would we make steps back, go back to a national lockdown? | 19:00 |
| LjL | And a question for Dr Borrelli about the documents from the committee: you said they will be made public at the end of this emergency, but as we know, the emergency could end after 6 months or more. You've said many times that these documents are not secret but just private. Won't it be too late to understand how things went wrong in some areas after one year or more? | 19:01 |
| LjL | A: The question is interesting but it's hard to answer. We must regain freedoms within the rules. Until we have herd immunity with a vaccine, we can't really imagine going back to close contacts. This is objective, and I think we are all adapting to this outcome. | 19:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 16:58 UTC: (news): Coronavirus live updates: New poll finds outsized impact in New Jersey, governor warns of 'Armageddon' scenario → https://is.gd/gKirVP | 19:01 |
| LjL | The virus hasn't changed way of acting. The policy of "small steps", or "try and learn", lets us hopefully monitor what's happening: when we showed maps last time, we had over 100 red zones. If you have communities, or nursing homes, where there is a very high number of cases, that must be locked down. That doesn't mean locking down the whole country. | 19:02 |
| LjL | It could even involve a high number of cases, but it depends on whether it's concentrated in one place, or widespread. | 19:03 |
| LjL | If 100 cases are in several clusters, that is more worrisome, and that may require containment, maybe still localized but different. | 19:03 |
| LjL | We have no scenarios bringing us back to a national lockdown, that would be terrible, but we cannot rule it out completely. | 19:03 |
| LjL | A given community could find itself locked down for 15 days, but that doesn't mean locking down the entire country. Regionally and locally we will delineate specific areas where there's work to do. | 19:04 |
| LjL | We must quickly intercept positive cases to contain the infection. We must keep even the worst-case scenarios in mind, we should be prepared but it's not a likely scenario. We do expect new cases, we expect them to occur in small communities where we can intervene quickly; we hope we can intercept cases within families too. | 19:05 |
| LjL | If you have a diffused amount of cases that cannot be traced back, that is what worries us. | 19:05 |
| LjL | (Borrelli) About the acts from the scientific committee, I can confirm they are not secret: technically they are "unclassified but private information", and if the state of emergency were extended, we reserve the right to make them available later. | 19:06 |
| LjL | Q: In the new decree, there is the sentence "It will always be allowed to go back to one's own residence or domicile". You had asked for this to be forbidden, to avoid "mass exodus" from north to south or vice versa. Are you against this? | 19:07 |
| LjL | A: You should also look at the part that says mobility across regions isn't allowed. Other valid reasons for moving were already allowed. Within regions we have a higher level of mobility, but the other element remains. | 19:07 |
| LjL | [Actually, Conte explicitly said that going back home will be allowed even across regions] | 19:08 |
| LjL | No, the mobility ban is kept aside from the previously allowed cases. | 19:08 |
| LjL | (Borrelli) If there are no further questions we'll close this here. Thanks and good evening. | 19:08 |
| LjL | --- end | 19:08 |
| LjL | what a fucking ridiculous thing | 19:08 |
| LjL | secret but not secret documents | 19:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 17:04 UTC: WHO warns that 'children will die' as coronavirus pandemic postpones vaccinations against other diseases: The World Health Organization warned Monday that children across the world will die as the coronavirus pandemic forces some countries to temporarily halt vaccinations for other deadly diseases such as polio. → https://is.gd/vW3RC1 | 19:08 |
| LjL | to cover asses until statute of limitations kicks in | 19:08 |
| LjL | despicable | 19:08 |
| genera_ | traveling is banned but you re not allowed to call it ban | 19:09 |
| genera_ | dito secrecy | 19:09 |
| LjL | there was a direct question to the PM yesterday as to whether "going back home" would be allowed *even* across regional lines | 19:09 |
| LjL | he said yes | 19:10 |
| LjL | now they said no | 19:10 |
| LjL | from yesterday's press conference | 19:13 |
| LjL | Q: Sorry for the audio earlier. About self-certification: will they still be needed when moving between municipalities? And about going back to one's own domicile, will that also be allowed across regions? And, you know there has been intense debate within the majority in parliament about EU aid; are you going to propose a vote on the whole "package"? | 19:13 |
| LjL | A: We will allow people to go back to their homes regardless of which borders they cross. | 19:13 |
| LjL | direct contradiction if i ever saw any | 19:13 |
| genera_ | "oh i meant the borders to france, of course" | 19:14 |
| LjL | annoying | 19:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 17:31 UTC: (news): Doctors apply for SBA coronavirus funding in struggle to keep practices afloat during the pandemic → https://is.gd/FnfFih | 19:37 |
| LjL | Transcription of today's Italy Civil Protection press conference: https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/blob/master/speeches/Italian-Civil-Protection/2020-04-27.txt | 19:41 |
| LjL | probably doesn't matter, but i changed just about every number compared to the ones i typed here, after re-listening | 19:41 |
| LjL | i seem to have a problem hearing remembering and transcribing numbers | 19:41 |
| LjL | TAA, ↑ example | 19:41 |
| TAA | Ok | 19:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 17:41 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Francia → https://is.gd/RXvXHI | 19:45 |
| LjL | %cases italy | 19:46 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In all areas, Italy, there are 199414 total cases (0.3% of the population) and 26977 deaths (13.5% of cases) as of 23 minutes ago. 1.8 million tests were performed (11.1% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 19:46 |
| l0ndoner | new covid syndrome been spotted in children? | 19:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 17:54 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Conte → https://is.gd/KwK7EB | 19:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 18:07 UTC: (news): New York Gov. Cuomo says he talked to Trump about keeping temporary hospitals in place in case of second wave of coronavirus → https://is.gd/PMrTXQ | 20:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 18:18 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: USA - Texas → https://is.gd/q2g8KI | 20:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 18:22 UTC: /u/slakmehl: In Race for a Coronavirus Vaccine, an Oxford Group Leaps Ahead - The New York Times → https://is.gd/bdycH3 | 20:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 18:28 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: Vaccino → https://is.gd/fO5k35 | 20:36 |
| mefistofeles | l0ndoner: which covid syndrome? | 20:37 |
| mefistofeles | "But demonstrating the effectiveness of a vaccine in China may be difficult because Covid-19 infections there have plummeted" | 20:40 |
| mefistofeles | the irony :P | 20:40 |
| LjL | mefistofeles, so we need to designate a country as testing ground and get everyone there infected | 20:41 |
| LjL | then we'll pay $1 to the survivors | 20:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Italy Live* at 18:40 UTC: /u/pixelcraftables: A domani → https://is.gd/ss7Wiu | 20:43 |
| l0ndoner | can I paste a link? | 20:54 |
| mefistofeles | l0ndoner: sure | 20:59 |
| l0ndoner | https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-alert-over-child-inflammation-cases-nzl6l0jp0 | 20:59 |
| l0ndoner | sub | 20:59 |
| l0ndoner | sorry ill find bbc link hold on | 20:59 |
| l0ndoner | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52439005 | 21:00 |
| l0ndoner | mefistofeles: virtually same story | 21:00 |
| mefistofeles | l0ndoner: too bad, no numbers and apparently not that related to covid | 21:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 18:53 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus US live: Trump to hold press briefing as White House reverses decision → https://is.gd/WLqfiF | 21:05 |
| oxalis | LjL The mayor of Las Vegas, Nevada, USA has declared that she's willing to make her town a 'guinea pig' | 21:12 |
| JamGobbar | fortunately for vegas the casinos arent going along with her plan yet | 21:12 |
| mefistofeles | oxalis: clinical trials don't really need the mayor approval, fwiw | 21:16 |
| mefistofeles | LjL: we got quite a long list of muted masks/users, are these permanent? | 21:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 19:20 UTC: (news): WHO warns about coronavirus antibody tests as some nations consider issuing 'immunity passports' to recovered patients → https://is.gd/7WyHQk | 21:27 |
| LjL | mefistofeles: they can be cleaned up when it doesn't seem to make technical sense anymore to keep them, but apart from specific circumstances, I do not believe in "temporary" bans with timers. Either I'm quieting someone for ten minutes and will be there to unquiet them as soon as they've calmed down, or in most other cases, a ban means that someone isn't deemed to behave okay in the channel. That can only change if they are talked to and things actually | 21:34 |
| LjL | change, but other than that I'd call them permanent or at least indefinite | 21:34 |
| mefistofeles | ok | 21:39 |
| mefistofeles | maybe that's why this channel has been so quiet lately, I see some of the regulars in the list haha | 21:39 |
| friedbat | LjL (and others we discussed this with): seems we were somewhat right :( about spain and italy weekend numbers | 21:49 |
| friedbat | deaths ticked back up a bit | 21:49 |
| LjL | friedbat, well, in italy at least, it's more today, but still substantially less than previous days | 21:49 |
| LjL | haven't checked spain, in fact i suspect the bot hasn't been sending updates, or has it | 21:49 |
| LjL | maybe all the netsplit confused it | 21:49 |
| LjL | %cases spain | 21:49 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In all areas, Spain, there are 229422 total cases (0.5% of the population) and 23521 deaths (10.3% of cases) as of 15 minutes ago. 1.3 million tests were performed (18.1% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 3.4% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 16.3% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Spain for time series data. | 21:49 |
| friedbat | yes, still downward trajectory but not the drops the weekend numbers suggested | 21:49 |
| mefistofeles | many labs cannot work full force on weekends | 21:50 |
| mefistofeles | so testing gets a bit delayed | 21:50 |
| friedbat | yep | 21:50 |
| LjL | very similar absolute number today in spain and italy | 21:50 |
| LjL | i think it's good news | 21:50 |
| LjL | not the fact it's more than yesterday, but i was certain yesterday there was something fishy going on | 21:51 |
| LjL | but the deaths trajectory is more clear now than it used to be | 21:51 |
| LjL | although i would wait until at least tomorrow to say that for sure | 21:51 |
| LjL | because there can be some monday-follows-sunday effect too :P | 21:51 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +2012 cases (now 1002900), +53 deaths (now 56376) since 17 minutes ago — Illinois, US: +1980 cases (now 45883) since a day ago | 21:51 |
| LjL | well who'd have guessed, i restarted the bot | 21:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 19:54 UTC: (news): WHO warns about coronavirus antibody tests as some nations consider issuing 'immunity passports' to recovered patients → https://is.gd/7WyHQk | 21:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 19:57 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus US live: Trump to hold press briefing as White House reverses decision → https://is.gd/WLqfiF | 22:06 |
| friedbat | 1 of every 4 people in nyc have had the bug? | 22:09 |
| friedbat | what does that give, a fatality rate between 0.5% and 0.6% there? | 22:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews at 19:58 UTC: worldnews: Coronavirus 'Effectively Eliminated' in New Zealand Following Comprehensive Approach of Jacinda Ardern's Government → https://is.gd/tWqAZ2 | 22:13 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: you mean from the antibodies survey? | 22:14 |
| friedbat | mefistofeles: yes | 22:14 |
| friedbat | https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/04/27/coronavirus-antibodies-present-in-nearly-25-of-all-nyc-residents/ | 22:14 |
| mefistofeles | I think it's too soon to conclude that, but yes, that's what it showed | 22:15 |
| mefistofeles | %cases New York | 22:15 |
| Brainstorm | mefistofeles: In New York, US, there are 297224 total cases (1.5% of the population) and 22612 deaths (7.6% of cases) as of 14 minutes ago. 826095 tests were performed (36.0% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=New%20York for time series data. | 22:15 |
| Spec | 1.5%-25% is a large difference | 22:16 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: there are still many deaths that are not counted, I think | 22:16 |
| friedbat | and there's also a delay in seroconversion | 22:16 |
| friedbat | so it's imperfect. i'm going by available data. | 22:16 |
| mefistofeles | ok, yes | 22:16 |
| mefistofeles | also, not sure if that test was in the whole state or just NYC | 22:17 |
| friedbat | the 25% figure refers to nyc. but they did test other areas too. | 22:17 |
| mefistofeles | ok | 22:17 |
| friedbat | the prevalence they found in other areas is lower. 14.4% in long island. 15.1% in westchester, and 3.2% in the rest of the state | 22:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 20:12 UTC: Coronavirus live news: confirmed cases of Covid-19 pass 3m worldwide: Iran reports 96 more deaths; Spain’s death toll shows slight rise; Germany calls for ‘very careful’ easing of lockdown; New Zealand says ‘worst is over’ → https://is.gd/JAjIWs | 22:20 |
| mefistofeles | that makes sense, I guess | 22:20 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: the one from the small town in germany was about 14% | 22:20 |
| friedbat | yes, and they had been hit hard due to some carnival right? | 22:21 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Brazil: +2340 cases (now 66501), +203 deaths (now 4543) since 48 minutes ago — US: +1745 cases (now 1004645), +119 deaths (now 56495) since 35 minutes ago — Massachusetts, US: +1524 cases (now 56462), +104 deaths (now 3003) since 23 hours ago | 22:22 |
| mefistofeles | btw, that would mean 0.46% in case fatality ratio (for the 25% in cses) | 22:22 |
| mefistofeles | for NYC | 22:22 |
| mefistofeles | oh wait, no, that's wrong | 22:22 |
| mefistofeles | I don't really know the numbers for NYC | 22:22 |
| friedbat | i think it's more like 0.56% | 22:22 |
| mefistofeles | I was using the ones from the state | 22:22 |
| friedbat | or close to that | 22:22 |
| friedbat | mefistofeles: this is an easy one to just estimate mentally, take whatever the nyc death rate (per capita) and multiply by 4 | 22:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 20:24 UTC: (news): The market is rebounding on hope for a treatment, new index tracking coronavirus-drug makers shows → https://is.gd/o1OU2h | 22:27 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: I don't know the NYC death rate, that's what I'm saying | 22:27 |
| friedbat | it's around 14% | 22:27 |
| mefistofeles | friedbat: if the case fatality ratio is 14% then that gives around 0.8 | 22:29 |
| mefistofeles | 0.84% | 22:29 |
| friedbat | the death rate (deaths/population) is 14% | 22:29 |
| mefistofeles | yes, so, if it's true that 25% had it, the CFR is around 0.84% | 22:29 |
| friedbat | sorry, not 14%, 0.14% | 22:30 |
| mefistofeles | ah, no, hahaha, yes, I'm still using NY state numbers... get them out of my head!!! | 22:30 |
| mefistofeles | xD | 22:30 |
| mefistofeles | but yeah, it should be even larger then | 22:31 |
| mefistofeles | so around 1% I'd say | 22:31 |
| friedbat | no. it's 4*0.14% = 0.56% | 22:31 |
| iz | %cases us | 22:32 |
| Brainstorm | iz: In all areas, US, there are 1.0 million total cases (0.3% of the population) and 56495 deaths (5.6% of cases) as of 16 minutes ago. 5.5 million tests were performed (18.4% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 22:32 |
| iz | 1mil now | 22:32 |
| tinwhiskers | iz: quite a milestone :-( | 22:37 |
| iz | hit 1m, so now let's reopen everything :/ | 22:38 |
| euod[m] | hey you can do it as a percentage sensibly now. | 22:44 |
| euod[m] | 0.33% of all the people in the US are confirmed infected. | 22:44 |
| LjL | the bot just gave that percentage | 22:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 20:42 UTC: Coronavirus outbreak: Coronavirus US live: Trump to hold press briefing as White House reverses decision → https://is.gd/WLqfiF | 22:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 20:59 UTC: Texas to lift coronavirus restrictions this week, businesses to reopen in phases: More than 1.9 million unemployment claims have been filed in Texas since the outbreak began and the state has paid out more than $2 billion, Abbott said. → https://is.gd/UlxbME | 23:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 21:08 UTC: 'What not to do': governor Newsom condemns California beach crowds – video: Photos of packed beaches in southern California over the weekend were condemned by the state governor Gavin Newsom, amid fears large crowds could reverse progress on containing Covid-19 in the US. → https://is.gd/yPJZos | 23:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews Live* at 21:28 UTC: /u/slakmehl: Nate Silver su Twitter: "US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking. Weird day. Newly reported deaths: Today: 1,163 Yesterday: 1,095 One week ago (4/20): 1,689 Newly reported cases: T: 22K Y: 27K 4/20: 25K Newly reported tests: T: 136K Y: 208K 4/20: 149K Share of positive tests: T: 16% Y: 13% 4/20: 17%" → https://is.gd/lr2LOr | 23:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health at 21:29 UTC: Texas to lift coronavirus restrictions this week, businesses to reopen in phases: More than 1.9 million unemployment claims have been filed in Texas since the outbreak began and the state has paid out more than $2 billion, Abbott said. → https://is.gd/UlxbME | 23:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews at 21:33 UTC: worldnews: mink found infected with Covid-19 at two Dutch fur farms. workers at both farms tested positive for the virus, and are believed to have passed the infection on to the mink → https://is.gd/fZvX7v | 23:51 |
| tinwhiskers | %cases | 23:54 |
| Brainstorm | tinwhiskers: In all areas, worldwide, there are 3.1 million total cases (0.0% of the population) and 211210 deaths (6.9% of cases) as of 4 minutes ago. 28.6 million tests were performed (10.7% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 2.3% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 18.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=worldwide for time series data. | 23:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Guardian at 21:44 UTC: Australia news: Coronavirus Australia update latest: Bondi beach reopens to swimmers as new cases drop to single figures – live news → https://is.gd/TnC2DU | 23:58 |
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