| pyna | happy 100k us covid deaths milestone day | 00:09 |
|---|---|---|
| dunnp | yay | 00:11 |
| LjL | now it's South American numbers that look scarier and scarier | 00:20 |
| LjL | Brainstorm is just dropping some huge numbers around | 00:20 |
| LjL | %cases Brazil | 00:20 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Brazil, there have been 399632 confirmed cases (0.2% of the population) and 25035 deaths (6.3% of cases) as of an hour ago. 3.1 million tests were performed (13.0% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 2.1% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 13.6% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Brazil for time series data. | 00:20 |
| LjL | %cases Peru | 00:20 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Peru, there have been 135905 confirmed cases (0.4% of the population) and 3983 deaths (2.9% of cases) as of 31 minutes ago. 875721 tests were performed (15.5% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.0% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 6.6% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Peru for time series data. | 00:20 |
| LjL | %cases Chile | 00:20 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Chile, there have been 82289 confirmed cases (0.4% of the population) and 841 deaths (1.0% of cases) as of 7 hours ago. 501125 tests were performed (16.4% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.3% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 2.4% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Chile for time series data. | 00:20 |
| LjL | the deaths in Brazil aren't really proportionate with the rest | 00:21 |
| LjL | :\ | 00:21 |
| dunnp | there is so much variability in the death % | 00:22 |
| dunnp | presumably because of testing? | 00:22 |
| dunnp | %cases Belgium | 00:23 |
| Brainstorm | dunnp: In Belgium, there have been 57592 confirmed cases (0.5% of the population) and 9364 deaths (16.3% of cases) as of 13 hours ago. 804890 tests were performed (7.2% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Belgium for time series data. | 00:23 |
| LjL | dunnp, because of testing... and/or because of how overwhelmed the hospitals are | 00:23 |
| LjL | although i think the two tend to go together | 00:23 |
| dunnp | I mean I guess the positive test rates are actually similar | 00:23 |
| LjL | Italy had "time" to run "spare" tests only when the hospitals weren't overwhelmed anymore | 00:23 |
| dunnp | %cases Italy | 00:24 |
| Brainstorm | dunnp: In Italy, there have been 231139 confirmed cases (0.4% of the population) and 33072 deaths (14.3% of cases) as of 4 hours ago. 5.4 million tests were performed (4.2% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 4.8% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 18.4% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 00:24 |
| LjL | dunnp, not necessarily. you can see that on offloop (at least for countries that publish it) | 00:24 |
| dunnp | Italy is high too | 00:24 |
| LjL | yes, i'm afraid we know about Italy :P | 00:24 |
| LjL | also | 00:24 |
| LjL | %cases UK | 00:24 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In United Kingdom, there have been 267240 confirmed cases (0.4% of the population) and 37460 deaths (14.0% of cases) as of 7 hours ago. 5.4 million tests were performed (5.0% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 00:24 |
| LjL | i don't know, there are still many unclear things | 00:24 |
| LjL | dunnp, doctors here have increasingly started insisting that they are seeing "milder" cases in general | 00:25 |
| LjL | can we say it's just because, before, those people were simply kept home and doctors would never see them? | 00:25 |
| LjL | but nowadays we barely have people in ICUs at all | 00:25 |
| LjL | when epidemiologists and virologists hear that, they jump up in the air and say "nothing indicates the virus has changed!" | 00:25 |
| dunnp | ^ yup | 00:26 |
| LjL | well maybe it hasn't, but viral load amounts in patients may have | 00:26 |
| LjL | we don't know how that affects symptoms | 00:26 |
| dunnp | or it was more prevalent that we initially thought | 00:26 |
| LjL | then in turn when "frontline" doctors hear epidemiologists say this, they are like "we are here seeing patients, you are just there looking at numbers" | 00:26 |
| LjL | everyone has a different picture from a different vantage point | 00:26 |
| LjL | dunnp, that is unclear too. there are many antibody tests being done now that indicate high-ish (not 60%, but maybe 20% in NYC) prevalence but there are many questions about these tests, and there are also other studies indicating something different | 00:27 |
| dunnp | I'd like to get one of the antibody tests done | 00:27 |
| LjL | if anything i feel *less* comfortable about making any definite claims than i felt some weeks ago | 00:27 |
| dunnp | hmm | 00:28 |
| LjL | dunnp, person i know who works at a hospital did two antibody tests, one "rapid" one that their department bought, €30 or so per test, and among their department, they are 15 people and 14 were negative, while one was positive but his wife is known to have had COVID, so that's unsurprising. on the other hand they all work in a hospital so they were surprised *none* of the rest of them were positive. then later the government ran tests on them too (the | 00:29 |
| LjL | y are running antibody tests on 150k people, hopefully it's done well and will not be published in 2030), and that confirmed it, all negative except that person | 00:29 |
| dunnp | generally hospital staff are good at using ppe appropriately | 00:30 |
| LjL | she was actually surprised, but some virologist/epidemiologist (sorry i shouldn't conflate them, but i do anyway) told her "it's more likely someone gets the virus in a supermarket breathing next to positives and touching things positives touched, than for you to get it when you're all PPE'd up at the hospital" | 00:30 |
| dunnp | once we learned about the high risk procedures | 00:30 |
| LjL | (to be fair her group does not work directly with COVID patients) | 00:30 |
| LjL | dunnp, well, except that we didn't *have* enough PPE for much of the worst period | 00:31 |
| dunnp | that too | 00:31 |
| LjL | they had to learn at being good at *re*-using PPEs | 00:31 |
| LjL | they weren't taught that | 00:31 |
| LjL | also, grammar | 00:31 |
| ryouma | i got a couple of moldex n95 with valve. quite surprised that they have foam at the nose and not a metal strip. | 00:33 |
| ryouma | so maybe they will require tape | 00:33 |
| ryouma | one (of a whole bunch of) problem at dentist was they had an underling do a preliminary very cursory exam for no apparent reason, then made me lie there for an hour. this requires taking off and putting on a mask, with contaminated hands, then taking it off again and putting it on again with contaminated hands. | 00:35 |
| ryouma | (not to mention lack of social distancing, not using partking lot, etc,. other problem was they broke and denied their promise of doign the work at the same time as the exam. i would not have gone if i had known it would only be a list of teeth to work on and not actual work.) | 00:37 |
| LjL | ryouma, foam may be good... it's not like the metal strip actually lets you create such a tight seal, from what i could experience | 00:45 |
| LjL | ryouma, if you have *several* teeth to be worked on you have to consider that maybe those will take more than one session, too | 00:46 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Coronavirus Vaccine Update, May 26 (82 votes) | https://redd.it/gro755 | 00:47 |
| ryouma | yeah. dentist promised that he will just for me do all of them in one session. but it is in a few weeks (currently i am taking abx to keep it under control) and i have doubts about the dental practice. | 00:47 |
| ryouma | the exam did not take long at all | 00:48 |
| ryouma | (not only for covid but for impact on my body of going to dentist) | 00:49 |
| ryouma | it is just that it was last appointment of day and they for whatefer rason despite a reduced schedule were taking an hour to do who knows what while i lay there. if they were going to delay me i would have preferred they have me wait outside the building. | 00:50 |
| ryouma | so i think they just wanted to go home | 00:50 |
| LjL | i don't know ryouma | 00:51 |
| LjL | speak up next time maybe | 00:51 |
| LjL | be like "hey, i'm here, waiting" | 00:51 |
| LjL | i think you have the right to demand things from people you pay plenty of money | 00:51 |
| LjL | especially since your situation isn't typical | 00:51 |
| tinwhiskers | ryouma: how long until your next visit? | 00:52 |
| ryouma | a coupole of weeks | 00:52 |
| ryouma | 2-3w | 00:52 |
| ryouma | (and lockdown was just lifted) | 00:53 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Colombia: +1101 cases (now 24104), +27 deaths (now 803) since 23 hours ago — Nigeria: +389 cases (now 8733), +5 deaths (now 254) since 23 hours ago — Brazil: +12189 cases (now 411821), +563 deaths (now 25598) since 2 hours ago — Massachusetts, US: +527 cases (now 94220), +74 deaths (now 6547) since a day ago | 00:53 |
| ryouma | true about notifyign them. but i was very, very fogged, fitgured they had some emergency they might have been dealing with, and as i found out later, they do not charge for exams. and idk if there was anybody nearby. | 00:53 |
| ryouma | but it seems as if they just wanted to go home "there's nobody here" referring to hygienist. but those existed presumably when i arrived. | 00:54 |
| ubLIX | :b1 | 01:10 |
| LjL | ubLIX, :q! | 01:12 |
| ubLIX | no u | 01:13 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, may i suggest changing the default regression time from 7 to 14 days now that the epidemic has gone on for a while in most countries? i am looking at https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Brazil now for instance and it's very obvious the doubling rate is affected by weekly patterns, and having weekly patterns in case/death reporting is definitely not unique to brazil, and is likely an artifact | 01:47 |
| LjL | change it to 14 days and it looks much smoother | 01:48 |
| LjL | or maybe even something else, i dunno, just not 7 | 01:48 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: You mean the regression used in the doubling time calculation or the period of time used in the running average for the "smoothed" data? | 01:50 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, the former. i don't know what window you use for smoothing, but i have no issue with it | 01:51 |
| tinwhiskers | I chose 7 specifically because of the weekly nature of some reporting, but that may have been exactly the wrong thing to do :-/ | 01:51 |
| tinwhiskers | ok | 01:51 |
| tinwhiskers | I'm using 7 days for the smoothing as well. | 01:51 |
| tinwhiskers | OK, the default period for the regression is now 14 days | 01:52 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, it may be good for the smoothing but bad for the regression. i'm still looking at Brazil. i disabled Cumulative, and it looks like a mess. then i enable Smooth, and now it makes sense. so, this seems okay. the regression on the other hand... | 01:53 |
| LjL | (for the former part i meant looking at cases/deaths) | 01:53 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, i think if you have a spurious 7-day pattern, a moving average over 7 days will mostly get rid of it. but in a regression, if you only *consider* the past 7 days, then you will inevitably grab the pattern | 01:54 |
| LjL | although i'm not really good at any of these mathematics/statistics, so i'm going by intuition | 01:54 |
| tinwhiskers | works for me | 01:54 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, by the way, generally speaking, i hope i don't sound too commandeering with asking you to do this and change that. i'm just not very good at the pleases and the thank yous. i think we understand i ask you something and you do it if you feel like, you don't if you don't, and that i appreciate your site. | 01:56 |
| tinwhiskers | Yep, quite happy to tell people to get lost if I disagree :-) | 01:56 |
| LjL | heh | 01:57 |
| Norkle | YEEE! | 02:34 |
| nb | wow | 02:39 |
| LjL | oh when the matrix bridge wants to have fun | 02:49 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Mexico: +3463 cases (now 78023), +463 deaths (now 8597) since 23 hours ago — Nebraska, US: +357 cases (now 12976), +10 deaths (now 163) since a day ago — Brazil: +2840 cases (now 414661), +99 deaths (now 25697) since 2 hours ago — Argentina: +705 cases (now 13933), +8 deaths (now 500) since 11 hours ago | 02:53 |
| Jigsy | %cases UK | 03:52 |
| Brainstorm | Jigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 267240 confirmed cases (0.4% of the population) and 37460 deaths (14.0% of cases) as of 10 hours ago. 5.4 million tests were performed (5.0% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 03:52 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Haiti: +146 cases (now 1320), +1 deaths (now 34) since 23 hours ago — Honduras: +239 cases (now 4640), +6 deaths (now 194) since 23 hours ago — Guatemala: +191 cases (now 4145), +5 deaths (now 68) since 23 hours ago — Sudan: +200 cases (now 4346), +11 deaths (now 195) since 18 hours ago | 04:09 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Bolivia: +632 cases (now 7768), +6 deaths (now 280) since a day ago — S. Sudan: +188 cases (now 994), +2 deaths (now 10) since a day ago — South Korea: +79 cases (now 11344) since a day ago — Dominican Rep.: +459 cases (now 15723), +6 deaths (now 474) since a day ago | 04:24 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Saskatchewan, Canada: +3 cases (now 637), +2 deaths (now 10) since a day ago — Quebec, Canada: +541 cases (now 49148), +89 deaths (now 4229) since a day ago — Ontario, Canada: +319 cases (now 27943), +29 deaths (now 2264) since a day ago — Alberta, Canada: +25 cases (now 6926), +2 deaths (now 141) since a day ago | 05:09 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Two weeks after court scraps Safer at Home, Wisconsin sets record for new coronavirus cases and deaths (10351 votes) | https://redd.it/gru9h7 | 05:19 |
| devdull | wisconsin's a failed state | 05:20 |
| jacklsw | then is USA a failed country? | 05:20 |
| devdull | jacklsw: obviously | 05:21 |
| devdull | see if their supreme court overturns this as well wisconsin-to-send-mail-in-ballot-applications-to-2-7-million-voters-idUSKBN23400H | 05:24 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Mongolia: +13 cases (now 161) since a day ago — India: +247 cases (now 158333) since 8 hours ago — World: +260 cases (now 5.8 million) since 34 minutes ago | 05:39 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Para, Brazil: +2433 cases (now 31033), +76 deaths (now 2545) since a day ago — Amapa, Brazil: +652 cases (now 7619), +10 deaths (now 183) since a day ago — Thuringen, Germany: +29 cases (now 2910), +2 deaths (now 157) since a day ago — Maranhao, Brazil: +1867 cases (now 26145), +36 deaths (now 853) since a day ago | 05:54 |
| ryouma | "A third of the country locked itself in a hall of mirrors that it believed to be reality; a third drove itself mad with the effort to hold on to the idea of knowable truth; and a third gave up even trying." | 06:12 |
| ryouma | good writing | 06:13 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Remdesivir for 5 or 10 Days in Patients with Severe Covid-19 (83 votes) | https://redd.it/gru1wv | 06:19 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Thailand: +11 cases (now 3065) since a day ago — Pakistan: +2076 cases (now 61227), +35 deaths (now 1260) since 21 hours ago — World: +2161 cases (now 5.8 million), +35 deaths (now 357623) since an hour ago — Kyrgyzstan: +74 cases (now 1594) since a day ago | 07:09 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: ASU develops state’s first saliva-based COVID-19 test (89 votes) | https://redd.it/gry7dt | 07:16 |
| dunnp | woo ASU | 07:17 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Armenia: +442 cases (now 8216), +15 deaths (now 113) since 23 hours ago — Afghanistan: +560 cases (now 13016), +8 deaths (now 235) since 23 hours ago — Ukraine: +477 cases (now 22382), +11 deaths (now 669) since 23 hours ago — World: +1736 cases (now 5.8 million), +42 deaths (now 357665) since 2 hours ago | 09:10 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Large Outbreak of Coronavirus Disease among Wedding Attendees, Jordan (80 votes) | https://redd.it/gryoow | 10:17 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Philippines: +539 cases (now 15588), +17 deaths (now 921) since 23 hours ago — Russia: +8371 cases (now 379051), +174 deaths (now 4142) since a day ago — World: +9785 cases (now 5.8 million), +205 deaths (now 357870) since an hour ago — Poland: +127 cases (now 22600), +2 deaths (now 1030) since 14 hours ago | 10:20 |
| Haley[mt][m] | !cases USA | 10:25 |
| CovBot | In United States there have been a total of 1,745,803 cases as of 2020-05-28 08:02:00 UTC. Of these 1,153,566 (66.1%) are still sick or may have recovered without being recorded, 490,130 (28.1%) have definitely recovered and 102,107 (5.8%) have died. | 10:25 |
| Trippy72394 | Question about lockdowns: Are people sleeping more, or is there more insomnia? Are people having strange, vivid dreams, as though compensating for sensory deprivation? | 10:35 |
| Trippy72394 | A word about decline in demand of commercial real estate: Maybe it won't be as bad in China as the West is expecting. Chinese people do like an office to show credibility and status. Plus, they really like face to face deals. Just a thought. | 10:36 |
| Trippy72394 | Finally, with all these variants of covid, should a single vacinne do still? And what's the latest on when if likelihood and how long it will last? | 10:37 |
| Trippy72394 | Thanks! I'll check back for answers later. Love this channel! | 10:37 |
| Urchin | %data croatia | 10:46 |
| Brainstorm | Urchin: In Croatia, there have been 2244 confirmed cases (0.1% of the population) and 101 deaths (4.5% of cases) as of a day ago. 64266 tests were performed (3.5% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.5% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 4.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Croatia for time series data. | 10:46 |
| Urchin | yay, no new cases | 10:46 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Bangladesh: +2029 cases (now 40321), +15 deaths (now 559) since 23 hours ago — Nepal: +156 cases (now 1042), +1 deaths (now 5) since 22 hours ago — Indonesia: +687 cases (now 24538), +23 deaths (now 1496) since 23 hours ago — World: +2923 cases (now 5.8 million), +39 deaths (now 357909) since 49 minutes ago | 11:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Bhutan: +3 cases (now 31) since 18 hours ago — Belgium: +257 cases (now 57849), +24 deaths (now 9388) since a day ago — Austria: +37 cases (now 16628), +23 deaths (now 668) since 18 hours ago — World: +307 cases (now 5.8 million), +47 deaths (now 357956) since 17 minutes ago | 11:20 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Albania: +26 cases (now 1076) since 23 hours ago — Iowa, US: +88 cases (now 18449), +4 deaths (now 500) since 8 hours ago — North Carolina, US: +20 cases (now 24915), +3 deaths (now 844) since 10 hours ago — US: +108 cases (now 1.7 million), +7 deaths (now 102114) since 8 hours ago | 11:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Tunisia: +17 cases (now 1068) since 3 days ago — World: +17 cases (now 5.8 million) since 17 minutes ago | 11:50 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Oman: +636 cases (now 9009) since 2 hours ago — Kuwait: +845 cases (now 24112), +10 deaths (now 185) since a day ago — Belarus: +902 cases (now 39858), +5 deaths (now 219) since a day ago — Iran: +2258 cases (now 143849), +63 deaths (now 7627) since 23 hours ago | 12:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Ethiopia: +100 cases (now 831), +1 deaths (now 7) since a day ago — Madagascar: +44 cases (now 656) since a day ago — Bosnia and Herz.: +27 cases (now 2462), +2 deaths (now 153) since 8 hours ago — World: +235 cases (now 5.8 million), +3 deaths (now 358048) since 21 minutes ago | 12:51 |
| Jigsy | %cases UK | 14:40 |
| Brainstorm | Jigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 267240 confirmed cases (0.4% of the population) and 37460 deaths (14.0% of cases) as of 21 hours ago. 5.4 million tests were performed (5.0% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 14:40 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Kenya: +147 cases (now 1618), +3 deaths (now 58) since 23 hours ago — St. Vin. and Gren.: +7 cases (now 25) since 7 days ago — Saudi Arabia: +1644 cases (now 80185), +16 deaths (now 441) since 23 hours ago — Sweden: +639 cases (now 35727), +46 deaths (now 4266) since 23 hours ago | 14:51 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Qatar: +1967 cases (now 50914), +3 deaths (now 33) since a day ago — Portugal: +304 cases (now 31596), +13 deaths (now 1369) since 23 hours ago — World: +2695 cases (now 5.8 million), +16 deaths (now 358173) since 17 minutes ago — Bahrain: +285 cases (now 9977) since 16 hours ago | 15:06 |
| ubLIX | %t https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/05/u-s-declares-a-vaccine-war-on-the-world.html | 15:18 |
| Brainstorm | ubLIX: From www.nakedcapitalism.com: U.S. Declares a Vaccine War on the World | naked capitalism | 15:18 |
| ubLIX | "The United States and the UK were the only two holdouts in the World Health Assembly from the declaration that vaccines and medicines for COVID-19 should be available as public goods, and not under exclusive patent rights." | 15:18 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Djibouti: +217 cases (now 2914), +2 deaths (now 20) since 22 hours ago — Virginia, US: +1152 cases (now 41401), +57 deaths (now 1338) since 23 hours ago — Georgia (US), US: +294 cases (now 44932), +24 deaths (now 1957) since 12 hours ago — US: +1446 cases (now 1.7 million), +81 deaths (now 102197) since 32 minutes ago | 15:21 |
| Urchin | %data croatia | 15:22 |
| Brainstorm | Urchin: In Croatia, there have been 2245 confirmed cases (0.1% of the population) and 102 deaths (4.5% of cases) as of 33 minutes ago. 65094 tests were performed (3.4% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.5% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 4.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Croatia for time series data. | 15:22 |
| Urchin | :( | 15:22 |
| metreo | %data canada | 15:22 |
| Brainstorm | metreo: In Canada, there have been 87519 confirmed cases (0.2% of the population) and 6765 deaths (7.7% of cases) as of 12 hours ago. 1.5 million tests were performed (5.7% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 2.6% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 12.8% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Canada for time series data. | 15:22 |
| kirk781 | %data India | 15:22 |
| Brainstorm | kirk781: In India, there have been 159054 confirmed cases (0.0% of the population) and 4541 deaths (2.9% of cases) as of 33 minutes ago. 3.4 million tests were performed (4.7% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.0% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 6.3% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=India for time series data. | 15:22 |
| kirk781 | Ah, the nos of cases are increasing quite a lot here per day | 15:23 |
| IndoAnon | >https://www.medscimonit.com/abstract/indexMobile/idArt/926016 | 15:24 |
| Urchin | yeah, that was long feared | 15:29 |
| metreo | pray for India | 15:47 |
| dTal | India's rise in case rate doesn't look that bad, globally speaking | 15:48 |
| dTal | in fact it's the slowest rise of any country I have on the chart I'm currently looking at, by a large margin, and may never exceed 1 case per 100,000 per day | 15:49 |
| Urchin | dTal: in croatia we had over 2 cases per 100k per day for a period | 15:56 |
| dTal | that's still really low | 15:56 |
| dTal | most places seem to peak around 10 | 15:57 |
| dTal | a very few shoot even higher | 15:57 |
| Urchin | we went into lockdown within a week of wild spread starting | 15:57 |
| dTal | http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=India;New%20Zealand;United%20Kingdom;Sweden;Netherlands;Italy;US;Germany;Switzerland;Israel&byPopulation=yes&logScale=yes&cumulative=no | 15:58 |
| Urchin | current spread rate is 1-0 persons per day | 15:58 |
| dTal | I threw in India, because that's under discussion, and New Zealand, as a demonstration of a best-case scenario recovery | 15:59 |
| dTal | but by and large the pattern is steep exponential growth until 10 cases per 100,000 per day, follow by a flattening off, and in countries that manage it well, a somewhat less steep falloff | 16:00 |
| withorwithout | hey | 16:00 |
| dTal | in "bad" countries, the daily infection rate remains at 10 per 100000 per day | 16:00 |
| dTal | or falls off very slowly | 16:00 |
| withorwithout | So still no consensus on this asymptomatic vs pre-symptomatic? I thought most cases were the latter, as opposed to https://thorax.bmj.com/content/early/2020/05/27/thoraxjnl-2020-215091.full | 16:00 |
| dTal | and occasionally you get places like Chile where it just shoots up and doesn't stop | 16:01 |
| withorwithout | dTal: That's because Chile is doing a good job at testing | 16:02 |
| withorwithout | s/good/better | 16:02 |
| dTal | ...damn | 16:02 |
| dTal | does that mean that 10 per 100000 per day effectively represents testing capacity | 16:02 |
| dTal | that renders the stats useless | 16:03 |
| withorwithout | probably, the new cases/infections has always been closely correlated to testing | 16:03 |
| withorwithout | no, they are not useless, but they have that to take into account | 16:03 |
| withorwithout | they are pretty good to track the infection and see the positive-to-negative rates and from some regions compared to other to make better estimates | 16:03 |
| dTal | hm, chile doesn't look to be testing substantially more people than anyone else | 16:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Iraq: +322 cases (now 5457), +4 deaths (now 179) since 20 hours ago — Mayotte: +25 cases (now 1670), +1 deaths (now 21) since 17 hours ago — Puerto Rico: +89 cases (now 3486), +2 deaths (now 131) since 11 hours ago — India: +1256 cases (now 160310), +19 deaths (now 4560) since an hour ago | 16:06 |
| withorwithout | depends what you mean anyone else, compared to Souyth America they are testing way more | 16:06 |
| withorwithout | compared to some europeans, it's similar | 16:06 |
| withorwithout | and fwiw, Chile has always been able to stay under the 2-day-doubling-time curve, compared to others (Europe and USA) | 16:09 |
| LjL | withorwithout, under... you mean over? | 16:13 |
| withorwithout | LjL: Depends on the axes of the plot haha | 16:13 |
| withorwithout | but I mean, it has a larger doubling-time | 16:13 |
| LjL | withorwithout, fair enough :P | 16:13 |
| dTal | offloop.net/covid19/?default=Chile;United Kingdom;Sweden;Netherlands;Italy;US;Germany;Switzerland;Israel&byPopulation=yes&logScale=yes&cumulative=no | 16:15 |
| LjL | withorwithout, but still, Chile is worrisome. https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy;Chile | 16:15 |
| LjL | Italy is a wreck supposedly (and not so supposedly), but the doubling time was better throughout the time it was plotted | 16:15 |
| dTal | I see a normal doubling time until they hit some inflection point (testing capacity?) | 16:16 |
| LjL | two days is a very short time | 16:16 |
| dTal | around 26 march | 16:16 |
| withorwithout | Fun Fact: When Germany hit the 80k cases (as Chile is hitting now) they had a higher fatality rate and a less test ration than that of Chile in the same state of the infection | 16:16 |
| withorwithout | so that says a lot about how well Chile is doing in terms of testing | 16:16 |
| dTal | you have to correct for population | 16:16 |
| withorwithout | that's rate | 16:16 |
| withorwithout | per million habitants | 16:17 |
| LjL | fatality rate doesn't have to be corrected per population | 16:17 |
| LjL | withorwithout, well that's *mortality* rate :P | 16:17 |
| dTal | 80k cases per million? | 16:17 |
| withorwithout | ah yeah, and for CFR is for number of cases | 16:17 |
| withorwithout | just check the numbers xD | 16:17 |
| dTal | I am and Chile passed Germany weeks ago | 16:17 |
| withorwithout | dTal: ? | 16:18 |
| LjL | %cases Chile | 16:18 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Chile, there have been 82289 confirmed cases (0.4% of the population) and 841 deaths (1.0% of cases) as of 23 hours ago. 514523 tests were performed (16.0% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.3% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 2.4% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Chile for time series data. | 16:18 |
| LjL | %cases Germany | 16:18 |
| dTal | 80 cases per day per million | 16:18 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Germany, there have been 181895 confirmed cases (0.2% of the population) and 8533 deaths (4.7% of cases) as of 16 hours ago. 4.0 million tests were performed (4.6% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.6% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 5.0% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data. | 16:18 |
| LjL | dTal, he's talking deaths | 16:18 |
| withorwithout | yes, I'm talking about deaths per case and test per million | 16:18 |
| LjL | 0.3% Chile, vs 4.7% Germany | 16:18 |
| LjL | but Germany also had it much lower before | 16:18 |
| withorwithout | and even when Germany was at 80k cases, Chila has better numbers | 16:19 |
| withorwithout | chile* | 16:19 |
| dTal | I don't think fatality rate is a very good proxy for testing rate | 16:19 |
| dTal | there are so many counfounding factors | 16:19 |
| withorwithout | dTal: no, I'm not saying that either | 16:19 |
| LjL | dTal, i don't think he's saying it is | 16:19 |
| LjL | the testing rate is stated | 16:19 |
| dTal | then I'm confused | 16:19 |
| dTal | what's death rate got to do with anything? | 16:19 |
| LjL | withorwithout, many more tests are positive in Chile, which suggests they're undertesting | 16:20 |
| withorwithout | dTal: there are two numbers, Case fatality ratio: How many acumulated deaths per acumulated cases... and a second independent one, test per million hab. | 16:20 |
| dTal | there are a lot more than two numbers | 16:20 |
| withorwithout | those two independent numbers are better for Chile now than what they were for Germany when they had a similar number of infections | 16:20 |
| withorwithout | dTal: yes, I know that | 16:20 |
| LjL | withorwithout, i'll nitpick again: case fatality ratio is deaths per cases *when everything is over*. right now, deaths/cases is only a rough approximation of that | 16:20 |
| LjL | dTal, there are two numbers that he's focusing on | 16:21 |
| LjL | are you in a bad mood today or is this just how conversations go wrong? withorwithout is not an idiot, he's shown that before | 16:21 |
| dTal | withorwithout: I think it's more illuminating to look at cases per day, rather than cumulative | 16:21 |
| dTal | sorry | 16:21 |
| withorwithout | sure, they are also better for Chile | 16:21 |
| withorwithout | you can check that in the new report vs total cases plots | 16:21 |
| withorwithout | or even for deaths as well | 16:21 |
| dTal | withorwithout, are you looking at the graph I posted? I think it would save time | 16:22 |
| dTal | then you will see where I am coming from | 16:22 |
| LjL | dTal, i looked but i'm not sure which graph you mean, doubling rate? | 16:22 |
| dTal | I am looking at daily new confirmed infections per 100,000 | 16:22 |
| dTal | by which metric Chile passed Germany around May 7, with 8 new daily confirmed infections per 100,000 people, and still rising | 16:23 |
| LjL | dTal, well that looks like they had a peak, then a plateau, then sadly another peak | 16:23 |
| dTal | by this metric Chile looks worse than anywhere else | 16:23 |
| dTal | (on that graph) | 16:23 |
| LjL | but testing per day kept increasing, if slowly | 16:23 |
| withorwithout | That's not the best way to check that, you can see a better way is the new cases vs total cases, since that's how the infection actually spreads... the one current having it, how many come from that | 16:23 |
| withorwithout | this was explained in the minute physics video in the topic resources thing | 16:24 |
| dTal | I clearly need to download this data and play with it in a notebook | 16:24 |
| LjL | tha graph is availably on Covidly | 16:24 |
| LjL | the graph withorwithout means | 16:24 |
| dTal | offtheloop feeds you a json as well if you sak | 16:24 |
| dTal | *ask | 16:24 |
| LjL | yes | 16:24 |
| LjL | but covidly just makes the graph :P | 16:25 |
| dTal | but I'm supposed to be working right now :p | 16:25 |
| withorwithout | the per population is misleading because it doesn't take into account the density and clustering of the infection, and that's a big issue if you want to compare Chile to Germany... Germany is not dense | 16:25 |
| LjL | withorwithout, is this the graph you mean? https://covidly.com/graph?country=Chile&state=#growth | 16:26 |
| LjL | it is not reassuring | 16:26 |
| LjL | it has a dip but then it doesn't | 16:26 |
| LjL | countries that had it under control had an obvious dip | 16:26 |
| LjL | if anything it's a bit unique in having that "intermediate" dip that reversed itself | 16:26 |
| withorwithout | LjL: I was actually checking this one https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?data=deaths&location=Chile&location=Germany | 16:27 |
| LjL | well... | 16:27 |
| LjL | that looks like it should be the same graph | 16:27 |
| LjL | except it's different | 16:27 |
| LjL | (and animated, but that's not the point) | 16:27 |
| withorwithout | I also prefer deaths over cases, because just seeing cases has the extra variable of the testing capabilities, which seems to be better for Chile when they hit the same cases number compared to Germany | 16:27 |
| withorwithout | so yes, if you test more, you get more cases... as we all know already | 16:28 |
| withorwithout | but if you test more, you don't get more deaths | 16:28 |
| LjL | withorwithout, but i mentioned that before and you didn't acknowledge it i think... Chile has a 16% positive/tests ratio, which is not low. countries that "test a lot" have a much lower rate | 16:29 |
| withorwithout | animated is how you include time and how you can actually compare things in the same "state" of infection... or get a bit closer to that, imho | 16:29 |
| LjL | so they either aren't testing a lot for the amount of cases they have, or well, they have an *overwhelming* amount of cases | 16:29 |
| LjL | (meaniwhile i can't figure out why those two graphs look so relatively different) | 16:30 |
| withorwithout | LjL: you are comparing different states of the infection | 16:30 |
| withorwithout | when you are past the peak, as many europeans are now, this positive/test goes down quickly | 16:30 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, what about a positives/tests graph? i have that for italy, and it's kind of interesting to see it in time. you have just total tests i think | 16:30 |
| withorwithout | maybe another interesting one is plotting the new reported vs total active... it would be a bit noisy but can tell something | 16:31 |
| withorwithout | hmm no, that would fail after peak | 16:32 |
| LjL | withorwithout, oh i'm stupid, https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?data=deaths&location=Chile&location=Germany and https://covidly.com/graph?country=Chile&state=#growth are the same BUT one with deaths on the axes, the other with cases | 16:32 |
| withorwithout | LjL: yeah, haha | 16:32 |
| LjL | withorwithout, so... it's what you've just mentioned? :P | 16:32 |
| LjL | yeah now that i've switched Covidly to deaths, they look a lot more simikar | 16:33 |
| withorwithout | I mean, from what I can see, Chile is ding better in terms of these numbers than many Europeans... but yet again, Chile hasn't seen the peak and did some strict measures earlier than european countries, in terms of the "infection state" | 16:34 |
| LjL | withorwithout, but the one based on cases looks a lot more "solid" in the sense that for most countries (not for Chile, though) until the "big dip" happens they are all clustered around the same diagonal line | 16:34 |
| withorwithout | so, it needs time to see how this develops | 16:34 |
| withorwithout | yes, that's interesting, CHile and most latin america managed to stay below this curve by early lockdown measures | 16:35 |
| withorwithout | so they delayed the peak | 16:35 |
| LjL | China's fall is almost incredibly vertical | 16:35 |
| LjL | at the other extreme the United States is just sluggish | 16:36 |
| LjL | it is going down, but so slowly | 16:36 |
| withorwithout | China had it really clustered, that's easier to contain... basically just in Wuhan | 16:36 |
| withorwithout | USA has it all over :P | 16:36 |
| LjL | withorwithout, well Wuhan and Hubei. Wuhan is the size of Lombardy, and Hubei is the size of Italy | 16:37 |
| LjL | so... clustered... relatively | 16:37 |
| withorwithout | oooh, I just thought on some fancy metric for this, performing some actual clustering and check the Dunn index or silhouette coefficient | 16:37 |
| withorwithout | that should give some insights | 16:37 |
| LjL | over my head | 16:38 |
| LjL | withorwithout, tinwhiskers here run the offloop site. if you have brilliant ideas on things that can be done with the existing international data, he's the one to potentially implement them | 16:38 |
| withorwithout | LjL: basically you take the data, cluster it (say you get 10 clusters)... and then perform how well clustered they are, how the data is really differentiable between clusters or not, that should give a better number for China than say USA | 16:38 |
| withorwithout | I think | 16:39 |
| LjL | withorwithout, cluster them you mean you need to have the data per sub-region or even city or even actual location of each case? | 16:39 |
| withorwithout | ah ok, I may do something about this, and when I get results I would tell you | 16:39 |
| withorwithout | you meaning tinwhiskers as well | 16:40 |
| withorwithout | LjL: I don't know, we would have to see and play with it | 16:40 |
| withorwithout | Actually, bit surprising if something like this has not been done already | 16:41 |
| LjL | withorwithout, the problem if it's the way you mean is that at the international level, we basically only have the data tinwhiskers presents: cases, deaths, tests (plus general data if we want, like population or density). at best, we have that for subregions, i.e. in Italy we have 20 regions individually, in the States of course we have each state. but having more specific location data for each patient requires chasing country-specific websites that may | 16:41 |
| LjL | or may not exist | 16:41 |
| withorwithout | true, only some countries do regions | 16:42 |
| Haley[mt][m] | !cases france | 16:43 |
| Jigsy | >South Korea re-tightens lockdown restrictions after spike in cases | 16:59 |
| CovBot | In France there have been a total of 182,913 cases as of 2020-05-28 14:34:00 UTC. Of these 87,733 (48.0%) are still sick or may have recovered without being recorded, 66,584 (36.4%) have definitely recovered and 28,596 (15.6%) have died. | 16:59 |
| CovBot | In France there have been a total of 182,913 cases as of 2020-05-28 14:34:00 UTC. Of these 87,733 (48.0%) are still sick or may have recovered without being recorded, 66,584 (36.4%) have definitely recovered and 28,596 (15.6%) have died. | 16:59 |
| CovBot | In France there have been a total of 182,913 cases as of 2020-05-28 14:34:00 UTC. Of these 87,733 (48.0%) are still sick or may have recovered without being recorded, 66,584 (36.4%) have definitely recovered and 28,596 (15.6%) have died. | 16:59 |
| MBip[m] | Haley[mt]: Trying to catch a change in the act? | 17:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Azerbaijan: +191 cases (now 4759), +2 deaths (now 56) since a day ago — Malawi: +102 cases (now 203) since 2 days ago — Chile: +4654 cases (now 86943), +49 deaths (now 890) since a day ago — Maryland, US: +1286 cases (now 49709), +36 deaths (now 2428) since a day ago | 17:36 |
| Haley[mt][m] | M M Bip | 17:38 |
| Haley[mt][m] | Actually - no. Had reinstalled synapse, and realized my certificate was past validation date so had to renew it, and didn't use the fullchain. | 17:39 |
| Haley[mt][m] | So tested a little bit while troubleshooting - and once I fixed it, the client sent everything in :) | 17:39 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Why scientists change their mind and disagree: changing your mind based on new evidence is a badge of honor in the scientific community. The situation is complicated by the fact that pre-print research is often being debated in public on social media (10221 votes) | https://redd.it/gs4b7n | 17:51 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Taiwan and UK researchers find antibody that has the ability to prevent SARS-CoV-2, from entering human cells, and has a 90 percent to 98 percent efficacy rate. (82 votes) | https://redd.it/gs7lga | 17:57 |
| rager | !cases usa | 18:00 |
| CovBot | In United States there have been a total of 1,750,377 cases as of 2020-05-28 15:30:00 UTC. Of these 1,157,822 (66.1%) are still sick or may have recovered without being recorded, 490,262 (28.0%) have definitely recovered and 102,293 (5.8%) have died. | 18:00 |
| rager | !cases india | 18:01 |
| CovBot | In India there have been a total of 163,120 cases as of 2020-05-28 15:30:00 UTC. Of these 88,933 (54.5%) are still sick or may have recovered without being recorded, 69,534 (42.6%) have definitely recovered and 4,653 (2.9%) have died. | 18:01 |
| rager | !cases russian federatino | 18:01 |
| CovBot | My data doesn't seem to include russian federatino. It might be under a different name, data on it might not be available or there could even be no cases. You may have more luck if you try a less specific location, like the country it's in. | 18:01 |
| CovBot | If you think I should have data on it you can open an issue at https://github.com/pwr22/covbot/issues and Peter will take a look. | 18:01 |
| rager | !cases russia | 18:01 |
| CovBot | In Russia there have been a total of 379,051 cases as of 2020-05-28 15:30:00 UTC. Of these 223,916 (59.1%) are still sick or may have recovered without being recorded, 150,993 (39.8%) have definitely recovered and 4,142 (1.1%) have died. | 18:01 |
| rager | https://rsf.org/en/news/how-indias-government-tries-suppress-all-covid-19-reporting | 18:03 |
| kirk781 | rager, lol, cases here are increasing like anything. The govt. is hardly doing any suppressing | 18:03 |
| withorwithout | LjL: btw, I was looking the CHile curve compared to the 2-day-doubling curve and I was getting that wrong, Chile has that same trajectory, only that it managed to daly it for some weeks | 18:05 |
| withorwithout | so it was indeed "below" that curve for some time, but now it's right on it, as far as I can see | 18:06 |
| LjL | right | 18:06 |
| LjL | a dip, then a spike | 18:06 |
| LjL | withorwithout, maybe it shows that no matter what you do, when you stop doing it, you go back to where you'd "expect" to be anyway :\ | 18:06 |
| withorwithout | yeah, in that one you have to look at the slope no just he vertical position | 18:06 |
| rager | unless you're Sweden | 18:07 |
| withorwithout | yes, that's actually what most models predict | 18:07 |
| rager | then you end up nowhere near the seropositivity rates you thought you'd get | 18:07 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Somalia: +97 cases (now 1828), +5 deaths (now 72) since 22 hours ago — Indiana, US: +631 cases (now 33068), +38 deaths (now 2068) since 22 hours ago — Minnesota, US: +483 cases (now 22947), +45 deaths (now 977) since 17 hours ago — United Kingdom: +1887 cases (now 269127), +377 deaths (now 37837) since a day ago | 18:07 |
| rager | but with far more human misery than they wanted | 18:07 |
| withorwithout | Sweden was also on that trajectory as most others | 18:07 |
| LjL | rager, well imagine if they ALSO got some 80% seropositivity rates | 18:07 |
| LjL | that would have been quite the good idea | 18:07 |
| rager | instead, they're like 2.5% ahead of Spain | 18:07 |
| rager | and 10x the fatalities of Norway | 18:08 |
| LjL | but i believe they have the most mortality per capita of any country | 18:08 |
| withorwithout | this is a very interesting thing, the 2-day-doubling that all show, these guys from the minute physics video got it since months ago, but not sure what are the actual implications of that, coudln't one estimate a "free" R from that? | 18:08 |
| rager | a somewhat hidden lede there is that the USA is apparently only half as bad as Sweden | 18:08 |
| LjL | withorwithout, what do you mean by "free"? | 18:08 |
| rager | (and the USA is 5x worse than Norway, for comparison) | 18:08 |
| withorwithout | it's not that easy to compare, every country reports/counts deaths differently | 18:09 |
| rager | true | 18:09 |
| LjL | nobody talks about Italy anymore, apart from my bot. it's just like in doomsday American movie... first it hits Rome, and everyone is like "omg" but two minutes later they've forgotten about it as long as they can save NYC and LA | 18:09 |
| LjL | except this time it was Milan instead of Rome | 18:10 |
| rager | !cases UK | 18:10 |
| CovBot | In United Kingdom there have been a total of 267,240 cases as of 2020-05-28 03:05:02 UTC. Of these 229,780 (86.0%) are still sick or may have recovered without being recorded, 0 (0.0%) have definitely recovered and 37,460 (14.0%) have died. | 18:10 |
| withorwithout | LjL: that's expected | 18:10 |
| rager | !cases italy | 18:10 |
| withorwithout | nobody will talk about COVID-19 after enough time | 18:10 |
| CovBot | In Italy there have been a total of 231,139 cases as of 2020-05-28 15:45:00 UTC. Of these 50,966 (22.0%) are still sick or may have recovered without being recorded, 147,101 (63.6%) have definitely recovered and 33,072 (14.3%) have died. | 18:10 |
| rager | eh... | 18:10 |
| rager | it's too much of a scar to ignore | 18:10 |
| LjL | not ignore | 18:11 |
| LjL | but the brain has a limited capacity to obsess about one thing | 18:11 |
| rager | it'll go without saying, sure | 18:11 |
| LjL | at some point you pretend it didn't happen | 18:11 |
| LjL | you act as if it didn't happen | 18:11 |
| LjL | doesn't mean you don't carry trauma from it | 18:11 |
| rager | maybe less that, but like... | 18:11 |
| rager | say you live in Seattle | 18:11 |
| rager | maybe day 1-30 you comment on the lack of sun | 18:11 |
| rager | (it's a place known for lack of sunlight) | 18:11 |
| rager | eventually, you don't talk about it because why would you comment on something so ordinary? | 18:12 |
| rager | you're not pretending that it's sunny | 18:12 |
| withorwithout | the good thing is that it's apparently not happening as bad as many thought, people will also exaggerated that and disregard it as just something that happened haha | 18:12 |
| LjL | well i have tinnitus and i whine about it constantly even though i've had it for 4 years now | 18:12 |
| rager | you're not pretending that the days are never dreary | 18:12 |
| LjL | 3 years actually | 18:12 |
| rager | it'd be different if everyone had tinnitus | 18:12 |
| rager | the weather, like covid-19 shutdowns, is a shared experience | 18:13 |
| Haley[mt][m] | Thing is - most people don't have real problems anymore, so they find issues to have something to moan about ... | 18:13 |
| rager | real problems like record unemployment? | 18:13 |
| LjL | Haley[mt][m], that seems very trivializing | 18:13 |
| Haley[mt][m] | It actually is. If you grew up in countries where people had to work for a living, and I mean really work to be able to feed their kids etc., they have a different view on many things. | 18:14 |
| LjL | "people in africa don't worry about depression because they worry about starving" that's not true, they get depressed and it's as bad as people who get depressed elsewhere, for example. | 18:14 |
| Haley[mt][m] | That - we have forgotten, as we don really have issues to survive anymore. | 18:15 |
| rager | reactionaries are gonna complain that kids these days don't have enough grit | 18:15 |
| rager | that's an invariant | 18:15 |
| LjL | people who've lost their jobs due to COVID are definitely having issues to survive | 18:15 |
| rager | no matter what kids | 18:15 |
| rager | which days | 18:15 |
| withorwithout | it is actually not the cases LjL , if you check the GBD (this massive disease international report) you can see how countries with higher socioeconomic index have more incidents in these things than the others | 18:16 |
| rager | just make sure you run your problems by Haley[mt] first | 18:16 |
| LjL | withorwithout, how much of that is due to underdiagnosis? | 18:16 |
| rager | you don't know if your problems are bad enough to actually be worthy of complaint | 18:16 |
| withorwithout | *incidence | 18:16 |
| withorwithout | LjL: I think they should account for that in these studies | 18:16 |
| withorwithout | it's been going on for years | 18:16 |
| rager | they've got better reporting frameworks | 18:17 |
| Haley[mt][m] | rager: Well - many create problems so others can "talk" about it. | 18:17 |
| rager | I'd be careful about comparing data until after the dust settles | 18:17 |
| Haley[mt][m] | Look around you - and tell me if people who have real problems (I really mean real problems) complain. | 18:17 |
| Haley[mt][m] | Then you'll have your answer. | 18:17 |
| withorwithout | now, this is also related to age. The "richer" countries are older and elderly have higher incidence of these conditions | 18:18 |
| LjL | if i look around me i only see walls | 18:18 |
| rager | I don't think you go out of your way to surround yourself with these people | 18:18 |
| rager | it's easy to miss their complaints | 18:18 |
| rager | society is generally structured to explicitly ignore the problems of the poorest | 18:18 |
| rager | so if you don't hear them, that's on you | 18:18 |
| rager | find another cloud to shout at, old man | 18:19 |
| withorwithout | well, not sure if that's actually directed to me, but if anything this GBD study points towards the opposite, how we really need to take care of diseases in poorer countries | 18:20 |
| LjL | withorwithout, that should be easy to compensate for in studies by just looking at younger age groups in both places | 18:20 |
| LjL | withorwithout, no it's directed to Haley i'm pretty sure | 18:20 |
| withorwithout | since the very beginning on how they classify a poorer country, not just by the common economic metrics but including social ones | 18:20 |
| LjL | withorwithout, yeah GDP per capita is extremely artificial | 18:20 |
| withorwithout | not even Dunn index | 18:21 |
| rager | hm | 18:21 |
| LjL | there is a lot of poverty in america, with situations in cities that are very visibly worse than many in Europe | 18:21 |
| LjL | but their GDP per capita is among the highest in the world | 18:21 |
| withorwithout | sorry, I meant Gini index | 18:22 |
| withorwithout | got confused with the Dunn index I was discussing before xD | 18:22 |
| rager | America is much better at... uhh... concentrating capital | 18:22 |
| LjL | right | 18:22 |
| LjL | so at minimum, look at the variance too | 18:22 |
| LjL | but that's just a start | 18:22 |
| LjL | but i'm no statistician | 18:23 |
| withorwithout | yes, that's what Gini index does, somewhat | 18:23 |
| withorwithout | it's the common measure of inequality or variance in distribution of capital | 18:23 |
| withorwithout | but it falls short | 18:23 |
| rager | so one of the hypotheses I see here is that "richer" countries might have higher fatality rates due to preserving higher "vulnerable" populations? | 18:23 |
| LjL | rager, was definitely a hypothesis about italy | 18:24 |
| rager | like any number, it can't tell the whole store | 18:24 |
| rager | story | 18:24 |
| LjL | but then germany has about as many elderly as italy, and it was hit differently | 18:24 |
| LjL | so the hypothesis started being, in italy there is more cross-generational contact | 18:24 |
| LjL | at the end of the day what we have no scarcity of is 1) hope 2) hypotheses | 18:24 |
| rager | Germany has had less enforced Austerity | 18:25 |
| LjL | hand sanitizer on the other... hand... | 18:25 |
| LjL | rager, yeah they prefer to enforce it on others don't they ;P | 18:25 |
| rager | Italy was forced to slash spending on society thanks to "PIGS", no? | 18:25 |
| rager | that's what happens when you're the rich country | 18:25 |
| LjL | not nearly as bad as what happened to Greeks | 18:25 |
| LjL | they had minimum pensions slashed in half | 18:25 |
| rager | you use the international accords to funnel wealth inwards | 18:25 |
| LjL | well Italy and Greece are hardly faultless | 18:26 |
| rager | works pretty great for USA, right? | 18:26 |
| rager | apparently, Greece managed to take the lockdown seriously early, though | 18:26 |
| rager | !cases greece | 18:26 |
| CovBot | In Greece there have been a total of 2,906 cases as of 2020-05-28 16:04:00 UTC. Of these 1,357 (46.7%) are still sick or may have recovered without being recorded, 1,374 (47.3%) have definitely recovered and 175 (6.0%) have died. | 18:26 |
| LjL | forget about COVID, i mean the financial crisis, austerity measures, and all that | 18:26 |
| rager | oh, for sure | 18:26 |
| LjL | austerity was imposed and perhaps Germany is to be blamed instead of thanked for that | 18:27 |
| withorwithout | there are many things playing a role here, less health system capacity, more elderly in the hit zone (Germany had young people being hit when the exponential growth was noticed, as opposed to Italy's), also some honest mistakes in treatment, when Italy's hospitals got flooded with patients they thought putting some (many?) in ventilators was a good move, turns out this did more harm... they publicly accepted | 18:27 |
| withorwithout | this | 18:27 |
| LjL | but we do have an ability to misuse money | 18:27 |
| withorwithout | the last one is probably also motivated by the first one | 18:27 |
| rager | I remember the whole Grexit dance | 18:27 |
| LjL | we are a net giver to the EU but if we actually *used* the money they offer for underdeveloped regions, maybe we'd be a net taker | 18:27 |
| LjL | but we can't even come up with plans that get approved | 18:27 |
| LjL | best we can do is bicycle lanes, those get EU funding | 18:27 |
| LjL | and that's in Milan, i bet there's none in Rome or Naples | 18:28 |
| LjL | generally you have to match funding, i.e. EU gives you 50% if you give 50% for certain types of amelioration of this or that | 18:28 |
| rager | there's a joke about bike lanes in America | 18:28 |
| LjL | but if we can't unlock our own 50% that'll never happen | 18:28 |
| rager | what's six feet wide, white and male? | 18:28 |
| bin_bash | the average redditor | 18:29 |
| LjL | ... a run over cyclist? | 18:29 |
| withorwithout | trump? | 18:29 |
| rager | A bike lane. | 18:29 |
| rager | if italy found a way to net take money from the EU, I'm sure they'd find a way to rebalance it otherwise | 18:30 |
| bin_bash | rager: that doesnt make any sense | 18:30 |
| withorwithout | bike lanes are green in Seattle (?) | 18:30 |
| withorwithout | haha | 18:30 |
| bin_bash | jokes usually need to make sense | 18:30 |
| LjL | rager, i don't understand, why is a bike lane male? | 18:30 |
| LjL | (they aren't white here either but i guess i could guess that, they're pinkish orangeish here) | 18:31 |
| rager | the joke is that bike lanes are full of white guys | 18:31 |
| rager | no matter what neighborhood you put em through | 18:31 |
| withorwithout | I think it points to some claim that only white male use the bike lanes | 18:31 |
| rager | or how hard you try to get anybody else to use em | 18:31 |
| LjL | hmm | 18:31 |
| LjL | lots of women use them here | 18:31 |
| bin_bash | ok but it doesnt make sense | 18:31 |
| bin_bash | because the bike lanes themselves dont have sex | 18:31 |
| LjL | ... or is that gender | 18:31 |
| withorwithout | I actually got it, rager | 18:31 |
| withorwithout | not sure if I agree, though | 18:31 |
| bin_bash | LjL: male/female is sex | 18:32 |
| withorwithout | but in general, USA is not a good country for bikes | 18:32 |
| LjL | bin_bash, says you | 18:32 |
| withorwithout | and probably worse for the southern part, where the non-white population may be larger | 18:32 |
| rager | in my area, it's 65% white, 67% male | 18:33 |
| bin_bash | LjL: says biology | 18:33 |
| withorwithout | we should just change the "sex" field thing to "chromosome" (X or Y) and move one the silliness without sacrificing political correctness | 18:33 |
| rager | they tend to be an accessory for affluent neighborhoods | 18:34 |
| bin_bash | withorwithout: well not everyone knows their chromosomal makeup | 18:34 |
| rager | in the USA | 18:34 |
| LjL | bin_bash, biology doesn't speak | 18:34 |
| rager | the same affluent neighborhoods that like other fancy european things | 18:34 |
| withorwithout | bin_bash: that's easy to teach | 18:34 |
| bin_bash | LjL: ok maybe there's a language barrier, but male/female is a sex designation, not gender | 18:34 |
| withorwithout | and since you would *need* it, then that would be massively known | 18:34 |
| rager | not everybody's phenotype matches their genotypes | 18:34 |
| bin_bash | withorwithout: no i mean everyone would need to get tested to rule out unknown genetic abnormalities | 18:34 |
| rager | plus, some people have chimerism | 18:34 |
| withorwithout | rager: exactly, we are not interested in phenotype | 18:34 |
| rager | in the end, male/female is about how you interact with the people around you | 18:35 |
| LjL | bin_bash, i'm happy you are quicker to say i have a language barrier than jump straight to saying i'm an idiot! | 18:35 |
| withorwithout | bin_bash: also true | 18:35 |
| rager | so who cares about anything but phenotype? | 18:35 |
| rager | or beyond that... presentation | 18:35 |
| withorwithout | biology | 18:35 |
| bin_bash | LjL: well i don't think you're an idiot :P | 18:35 |
| bin_bash | we may disagree on stuff | 18:35 |
| LjL | i don't think i have a language barrier either | 18:35 |
| bin_bash | but i dont think youre an idiot | 18:35 |
| bin_bash | but anyway male/female is not gender | 18:35 |
| LjL | i've been talking about these things (and many others) much more in english than in any other language | 18:35 |
| withorwithout | can we go back to the topic of the channel? xD | 18:36 |
| rager | that's very courteous | 18:36 |
| bin_bash | really when people say gender they mean gender expression whether you're feminine or masculine. the muddying of sex and gender post-separation has been a disservice to everyone | 18:36 |
| ijqwioddqw | my gender is bike. | 18:36 |
| rager | I don't know italian | 18:36 |
| withorwithout | this is why Reddit is way better than irc/matrix :P | 18:36 |
| rager | THE RONA | 18:37 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Mali: +78 cases (now 1194), +2 deaths (now 72) since 23 hours ago — Brazil: +3947 cases (now 418608), +238 deaths (now 25935) since 15 hours ago — Mississippi, US: +328 cases (now 14372), +23 deaths (now 693) since 23 hours ago — Arizona, US: +501 cases (now 17763), +26 deaths (now 857) since 23 hours ago | 18:37 |
| rager | I deleted my reddit account long ago | 18:37 |
| rager | and have been happier ever since | 18:37 |
| bin_bash | withorwithout: they're not comparable. | 18:38 |
| rager | now, I just get my reddit through the redditor I met from a reddit meetup after quitting reddit | 18:38 |
| withorwithout | cya | 18:38 |
| LjL | meanwhile Italy's number of cases is slowly trending up again, for just a couple of days admittedly | 18:38 |
| LjL | but this is more or less the time where i'd expect re-opening to show an effect on the graphs | 18:39 |
| LjL | Milan is not doing good | 18:39 |
| rager | where I am... cases are booming | 18:39 |
| Urchin | withorwithout: biology is not as neat as you are trying to portray it | 18:39 |
| rager | it's so nice out, and you can't drink beer with a mask on | 18:39 |
| LjL | second day in a row the trend is reversed | 18:39 |
| LjL | rager, i think we're allowed to remove masks here to eat and drink :P | 18:40 |
| rager | the rub is that people are doing their drinking in the park with a dozen of their closest friends close together | 18:40 |
| rager | while everybody else seems to be doing the same thing | 18:40 |
| rager | we've even got stuff like food and shaved-ice vendors in the park | 18:41 |
| LjL | rager, well how is that any worse than restaurants and bars and pubs and so on? those are all back open here | 18:43 |
| LjL | with distancing, in theory. theory. | 18:43 |
| rager | ouf | 18:43 |
| LjL | withorwithout, you're right about the topic but this channel is not strictly an on-topic channel. but that particular topic does lend itself to... issues. | 18:44 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Small droplet aerosols in poorly ventilated spaces and SARS-CoV-2 transmission (83 votes) | https://redd.it/gs4eqw | 18:52 |
| tinwhiskers | Hi withorwithout. A cluster analysis is really more of a gis problem and requires spatial data to be useful as I see it. The data is already grouped by country or region so is already defined as a cluster at that level. | 18:59 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Two anti-inflammatory drugs found that inhibit the replication of the COVID-19 virus (94 votes) | https://redd.it/gs7atr | 19:10 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Egypt: +1127 cases (now 20793), +29 deaths (now 845) since 22 hours ago — Mozambique: +6 cases (now 233), +1 deaths (now 2) since a day ago — New York, US: +1388 cases (now 376060), +69 deaths (now 29622) since 16 hours ago — New Jersey, US: +881 cases (now 158699), +60 deaths (now 11401) since 16 hours ago | 19:37 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Utah, US: +215 cases (now 8921), +1 deaths (now 106) since 22 hours ago — Spain: +1137 cases (now 284986), +1 deaths (now 27119) since 23 hours ago — Nevada, US: +94 cases (now 8208), +4 deaths (now 406) since 17 hours ago — US: +512 cases (now 1.8 million), +6 deaths (now 102718) since 19 minutes ago | 19:52 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Yemen: +22 cases (now 278), +4 deaths (now 57) since 23 hours ago — Ireland: +38 cases (now 24841), +8 deaths (now 1639) since 23 hours ago — World: +74 cases (now 5.9 million), +30 deaths (now 359998) since 18 minutes ago — California, US: +18 deaths (now 3973) since 18 minutes ago | 20:07 |
| Jigsy | >Groups of up to six people allowed to meet in England from Monday | 20:23 |
| Jigsy | That'll help slow down the transmission... | 20:24 |
| bin_bash | lol | 20:24 |
| dTal | why though | 20:24 |
| dTal | where does this sudden "mission accomplished" push come from | 20:24 |
| blkshp | Social distancing still required, | 20:26 |
| dTal | except it's not required because there's no enforcement | 20:29 |
| dTal | and people just don't self police that worth a damn | 20:29 |
| Nyen | seems to me anyone asking "when is the 2nd wave?" is a false question | 20:29 |
| Nyen | since were in the middle of the 1st wave | 20:29 |
| Nyen | sort of indirectly suggesting the 1st wave is over, and "open-up" Mantra garbage | 20:30 |
| Jigsy | The UK still has nearly 4K new cases a day. | 20:30 |
| Jigsy | Well, it's dropped to about 2K/day at the moment. | 20:31 |
| Nyen | dTal: did you follow brian krebs, he has one on who is registering the domains, seems to be, GOP linked organizations , if I read it correctly | 20:32 |
| bin_bash | Nyen: why is your word spacing all messed up | 20:32 |
| Nyen | same ones who want to limit voting, jim crow II | 20:32 |
| Nyen | sames ones who want to limit voing | 20:33 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +3325 cases (now 186238), +66 deaths (now 28662) since 23 hours ago — Ohio, US: +443 cases (now 33940), +57 deaths (now 2110) since 18 hours ago — World: +4072 cases (now 5.9 million), +129 deaths (now 360127) since 49 minutes ago — US: +488 cases (now 1.8 million), +59 deaths (now 102795) since 49 minutes ago | 20:52 |
| pyna | "mission accomplished" is from that dumb self-help shit where you make reality by believing in it. same reason he always says "i don't know <person he know very well>", because once they anger him, he stops believing in them, and they stop existing | 21:01 |
| pyna | scary thing is almost everyone that exists has never lived in an universe without donald j trump in it. so, can't prove he isn't The One Correct Solipsist | 21:03 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Mauritania: +54 cases (now 346), +3 deaths (now 19) since 22 hours ago — Alaska, US: +13 cases (now 425) since a day ago — New York, US: +181 cases (now 376241), +20 deaths (now 29642) since an hour ago — US: +194 cases (now 1.8 million), +20 deaths (now 102815) since 21 minutes ago | 21:07 |
| dave_ | Is Florida opening up the parks? ie Disney, Universal? | 21:42 |
| dave_ | speram glotto | 21:44 |
| dave_ | #quit | 21:44 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Israel: +63 cases (now 16872), +3 deaths (now 284) since 12 hours ago — Wisconsin, US: +512 cases (now 16974), +11 deaths (now 550) since a day ago — Tennessee, US: +373 cases (now 21679), +3 deaths (now 356) since 23 hours ago — Michigan, US: +406 cases (now 56014), +38 deaths (now 5372) since a day ago | 21:52 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Guinea: +278 cases (now 3553), +2 deaths (now 22) since 3 days ago — Illinois, US: +1527 cases (now 115833), +103 deaths (now 5186) since 23 hours ago — US: +1730 cases (now 1.8 million), +109 deaths (now 102989) since 21 minutes ago — South Carolina, US: +165 cases (now 10788), +4 deaths (now 470) since 23 hours ago | 22:07 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Libya: +6 cases (now 105), +1 deaths (now 5) since a day ago — Massachusetts, US: +675 cases (now 94895), +93 deaths (now 6640) since 22 hours ago — New Jersey, US: +527 cases (now 159226), +11 deaths (now 11412) since 3 hours ago — Connecticut, US: +271 cases (now 41559), +23 deaths (now 3826) since 22 hours ago | 22:53 |
| disillusion | Column: Developing a coronavirus vaccine should not be rushed. Here’s why https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-05-28/coronavirus-vaccine-development-timeline | 23:35 |
| disillusion | “History tells us that speed kills,” says Arthur Caplan, a bioethicist at NYU Langone Medical Center | 23:35 |
| disillusion | “For scientists and physicians, the term ‘warp speed’ should trigger concern,” Caplan and his colleagues observed. “Good science requires rigor, discipline, and deliberate caution.” | 23:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Uganda: +36 cases (now 317) since a day ago — California, US: +1472 cases (now 103417), +61 deaths (now 4034) since 3 hours ago — US: +2085 cases (now 1.8 million), +108 deaths (now 103246) since 49 minutes ago — Texas, US: +310 cases (now 60086), +9 deaths (now 1615) since 49 minutes ago | 23:38 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: New York Governor signs executive order that allows store owners the right to ban any customer that enters without wearing a mask. (10062 votes) | https://redd.it/gs8ymo | 23:48 |
Generated by irclog2html.py 2.17.0 by Marius Gedminas - find it at https://mg.pov.lt/irclog2html/!