libera/##covid-19/ Tuesday, 2020-06-09

pynaoff topic sorry not sorry https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uoXtlHwveKU00:04
LjLconsider yourself kicked but not kicked00:48
bin_bashlol00:49
BrainstormUpdates for Bulgaria: +83 cases (now 2810), +4 deaths (now 164) since a day ago — Peru: +3181 cases (now 199696), +106 deaths (now 5571) since a day ago — California, US: +2020 cases (now 133740), +23 deaths (now 4676) since 4 hours ago — US: +5517 cases (now 2.0 million), +161 deaths (now 113049) since 3 hours ago01:05
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Coronavirus vaccine developers wary of errant antibodies (83 votes) | https://redd.it/gyz2ie01:18
BrainstormUpdates for Libya: +62 cases (now 332) since 8 hours ago — Brazil: +3475 cases (now 710887), +178 deaths (now 37312) since 48 minutes ago — Argentina: +826 cases (now 23620), +23 deaths (now 693) since 11 hours ago — Texas, US: +249 cases (now 77094), +2 deaths (now 1864) since 48 minutes ago01:51
Jigsy%cases UK02:24
BrainstormJigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 287399 confirmed cases (0.4% of the population) and 40597 deaths (14.1% of cases) as of 9 hours ago. 5.6 million tests were performed (5.1% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data.02:24
ubLIXi suppose this has already been noted here: 02:35
ubLIX%title https://apnews.com/bd42a5a5b9abfc8a582a86af1dd7790a02:35
BrainstormubLIX: From apnews.com: Brazil expunges virus death toll as data befuddles experts02:35
LjLubLIX, unless the bot posted it, probably not, but i did get the news that Brazil is no longer publishing totals02:55
BrainstormUpdates for Guatemala: +447 cases (now 7502), +15 deaths (now 267) since 23 hours ago — Mexico: +2999 cases (now 120102), +354 deaths (now 14053) since 23 hours ago — Panama: +429 cases (now 16854), +5 deaths (now 398) since 23 hours ago — Washington, US: +215 cases (now 25117), +1 deaths (now 1170) since 2 hours ago03:06
Alex1138[m]how likely is a second wave?03:42
ubLIXi suppose that depends what country you're asking from03:45
ubLIXa country like New Zealand that has successfully drawn down new cases towards zero might be expected to successfully preempt factors for a second wave; others countries like, say, the UK, maybe not so much03:46
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: Asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is 'very rare', says WHO (10133 votes) | https://redd.it/gz4o3s03:56
ryoumaAlex1138[m]: and some places have not done with the first wave03:56
ryoumasuch contradictory information all the time03:56
ryoumaAlex1138[m]: or even reached peak03:57
ubLIXhow new cases numbers respond to the ongoing US (and global) protests will shed further light04:14
ubLIXit's interesting that long running mass protests in Hong Kong did not drive cases there out of control04:15
ubLIXwikipedia cites a few possible explanations, the last one being the funniest: "Others attributed the success to critical thinking of citizens who have become accustomed to distrusting the competence and political motivations of the government, the World Health Organization, and the Chinese Communist Party."04:16
ubLIXhow about this one, LjL? been in the scroll? worth reading if you're thinking of relying on a test: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp201589704:42
LjLubLIX: call me foolish but I'm thinking to mainly rely on not catching it04:45
ubLIXi think 'not catching it' should still be regarded as the standard of (self) care04:46
jacklswdon't know what's wrong with people everywhere.04:53
jacklswcovid-19 is far from over and people just gather and protest?04:53
LjLWhen COVID was even farther from over, many people were still carelessly congregating as long as they weren't caught, and for much less important reasons than these protest04:54
LjLHere in what has been considered the western "epicenter" of the disease, wearing masks is compulsory but there is still a substantial minority who doesn't, and an even more substantial one that does it ridiculously inadequately (nose out or other nonsense)04:55
LjLAnd they do that not because people have been suffocated to death by cops for no reason and cops doing these things have consistently gotten away with them04:56
LjLThey just do because they can't be bothered04:57
LjLSo I'd say this is something wronger with people04:57
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Analysis of hospital traffic and search engine data in Wuhan China indicates early disease activity in the Fall of 2019 (83 votes) | https://redd.it/gz71wl05:02
ryoumadegree of overness is relative to geography05:10
swift110hmm05:13
ubLIXthere's this open letter signed by 1288 health care professionals: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Jyfn4Wd2i6bRi12ePghMHtX3ys1b7K1A/view05:27
ryoumawhat does it say?  can't access it.05:29
ubLIXneither could i, to be honest (i assumed it was my browser not talking to google). i found it copied at the end of this article: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/05/health/health-care-open-letter-protests-coronavirus-trnd/index.html05:30
bonz060%cases KE05:57
Brainstormbonz060: In Kenya, there have been 2872 confirmed cases (0.0% of the population) and 85 deaths (3.0% of cases) as of 13 hours ago. 97340 tests were performed (3.0% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.0% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 9.1% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Kenya for time series data.05:57
BrainstormUpdates for Kosovo: +121 cases (now 1263), +1 deaths (now 31) since 5 days ago — Saskatchewan, Canada: +4 cases (now 654), +2 deaths (now 13) since 2 days ago — New Brunswick, Canada: +9 cases (now 146) since a day ago — Pakistan: +4646 cases (now 108317), +105 deaths (now 2172) since 17 hours ago06:21
zer00x%cases10:00
Brainstormzer00x: In World, there have been 7.3 million confirmed cases (0.1% of the population) and 409200 deaths (5.6% of cases) as of 13 minutes ago. 115.7 million tests were performed (6.3% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.9% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 10.9% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=World for time series data.10:00
zer00x%cases europe10:00
Brainstormzer00x: Sorry, europe not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name.10:00
zer00x%cases United States10:01
Brainstormzer00x: In US, there have been 2.0 million confirmed cases (0.6% of the population) and 113061 deaths (5.6% of cases) as of 14 minutes ago. 25.5 million tests were performed (7.9% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.9% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 12.8% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data.10:01
swift110hmm10:24
BrainstormUpdates for Bangladesh: +3171 cases (now 71675), +45 deaths (now 975) since 22 hours ago — Russia: +8595 cases (now 485253), +171 deaths (now 6142) since 22 hours ago — Bahrain: +314 cases (now 15731), +1 deaths (now 28) since 14 hours ago — Armenia: +350 cases (now 13675), +6 deaths (now 217) since 22 hours ago10:52
BrainstormUpdates for Indonesia: +1043 cases (now 33076), +40 deaths (now 1923) since 22 hours ago — Philippines: +518 cases (now 22992), +6 deaths (now 1017) since 22 hours ago — Belgium: +89 cases (now 59437), +13 deaths (now 9619) since 22 hours ago — World: +1674 cases (now 7.3 million), +59 deaths (now 409324) since 33 minutes ago11:22
EricGrahamMacEac!cases Canada 11:36
CovBotIn Canada there have been a total of 96,244 cases as of 2020-06-09 09:13:00 UTC. Of these 33,576 (34.9%) are still sick or may have recovered without being recorded, 54,833 (57.0%) have definitely recovered and 7,835 (8.1%) have died.11:36
EricGrahamMacEacHas anyone here had and recovered from COVID-19? 11:36
BrainstormUpdates for Albania: +36 cases (now 1299) since 21 hours ago — Oman: +712 cases (now 18198), +2 deaths (now 83) since 23 hours ago — World: +1018 cases (now 7.3 million), +3 deaths (now 409327) since 54 minutes ago — Romania: +145 cases (now 20749) since an hour ago12:07
BrainstormUpdates for Nepal: +324 cases (now 4086), +1 deaths (now 15) since a day ago — Kuwait: +630 cases (now 33140), +4 deaths (now 273) since 22 hours ago — United Arab Emirates: +528 cases (now 39904), +2 deaths (now 283) since 16 hours ago — Senegal: +89 cases (now 4516), +3 deaths (now 52) since a day ago12:52
BrainstormUpdates for Qatar: +1721 cases (now 71879), +5 deaths (now 62) since 23 hours ago — Belarus: +812 cases (now 50265), +6 deaths (now 282) since a day ago — Iran: +2095 cases (now 175927), +74 deaths (now 8425) since 23 hours ago — World: +5177 cases (now 7.3 million), +139 deaths (now 409479) since an hour ago13:53
BrainstormUpdates for Ethiopia: +180 cases (now 2336), +5 deaths (now 32) since 23 hours ago — Sweden: +791 cases (now 45924), +23 deaths (now 4717) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +164 cases (now 47903), +15 deaths (now 6031) since 23 hours ago — World: +1204 cases (now 7.3 million), +45 deaths (now 409524) since 41 minutes ago14:23
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Broad and strong memory CD4+ and CD8+ T cells induced by SARS-CoV-2 in UK convalescent COVID-19 patients (86 votes) | https://redd.it/gzihs516:02
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: The Sikhs Know How to Feed Crowds in a Protest or Pandemic: The Sikh Center of New York has served more than 145,000 free meals in the last 2 months, as part of their faith tradition of feeding anyone in need. (10461 votes) | https://redd.it/gzl7ub16:14
Guest50who16:26
Guest50who lucid16:26
Guest50names16:30
Guest50names ##covid-1916:30
Guest50#names16:30
bin_bashGuest50: wtf are you doing16:31
jacklswi guess guest50 is lost16:42
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: ICON (Ivermectin in COvid Nineteen) study: Use of Ivermectin is Associated with Lower Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with COVID19 (80 votes) | https://redd.it/gzn1b416:50
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Pulmonary post-mortem findings in a series of COVID-19 cases from northern Italy: a two-centre descriptive study (80 votes) | https://redd.it/gzl5di16:56
pwr22My first time outside in literally weeks and everyone has stopped wearing masks16:57
ThomCat[m]https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/127036226666860134717:09
bonz060%cases KE17:50
BrainstormUpdates for Djibouti: +53 cases (now 4331), +3 deaths (now 34) since a day ago — Chile: +3913 cases (now 142759), +19 deaths (now 2283) since a day ago — Saudi Arabia: +3288 cases (now 108571), +37 deaths (now 783) since a day ago — Alabama, US: +497 cases (now 21422), +11 deaths (now 729) since a day ago17:50
Brainstormbonz060: In Kenya, there have been 2989 confirmed cases (0.0% of the population) and 88 deaths (2.9% of cases) as of a minute ago. 97340 tests were performed (3.1% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.0% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected), and less than 9.1% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Kenya for time series data.17:50
Jigsy%cases UK18:19
BrainstormJigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 289140 confirmed cases (0.4% of the population) and 40883 deaths (14.1% of cases) as of 15 minutes ago. 5.6 million tests were performed (5.2% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data.18:19
JigsyGuessing the UK has stopped reporting new cases.18:20
LjLthat would be unlikely18:42
LjLJigsy, https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom&includeLive=yes18:43
LjLsorry18:43
JigsyOh?18:43
LjLhttps://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom&includeLive=yes&legacy=yes18:43
LjLadd &legacy=yes to the site when you see something suspicious18:43
LjLbecause the non-legacy dataset is from Covidly, Covidly is good in coverage, but bad in accuracy18:43
LjLit has coverage of subregions for almost all countries18:43
LjLbut sometimes it just does weird stuff with the data :\18:43
JigsyAh.18:44
pwr22What's going on in the UK doesn't make much sense to me18:46
pwr22Everything seems to be going well but I've just ventured out for the first time in 3 weeks and it's like pre-coronavirus time18:46
pwr22I was getting weird looks for having a mask and people weren't generally giving me any space18:46
bin_bashthat sucks18:47
LjLpwr22, same in italy except in milan at least most people do have masks (a fair share don't). but there's a ton of people around18:47
LjLpwr22, the numbers in the past three or so days haven't been so encouraging. not clearly a second spike either, but maybe a hint of one. we opened up about a month ago, so you'd expect things to have started going bad sooner, but hey it took a month before we saw any effects from the lockdown too18:48
bin_bashhttps://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/08/we-often-accuse-the-right-of-distorting-science-but-the-left-changed-the-coronavirus-narrative-overnight?fbclid=IwAR2spfzt30TjxEXECHzmlbRAjNMIwrosaiOMS8JCs9PGifVk0iaPIQHTi_818:48
pwr22What's the lockdown like there now?18:50
pwr22IIRC Italy was actually past the curve in the figures before opening stuff up but UK was still in the peak when Boris kept saying "we are passed the peak"18:50
pwr22The scientific community also disagrees with the government policy but the published government figures seem to show a fairy-tale perfect recovery going on18:50
pwr22I'm not usually one for conspiracies but I find it hard to believe there isn't something fishy going on18:50
pwr22Especially given palantir are running the UK's data publishing18:50
pwr22<LjL "pwr22, the numbers in the past t"> Oh man, I hope it turns out not to be another spike18:50
pwr22On the plus side I now have a sweet home office setup with a sit/stand desk18:59
LjLpwr22, the lockdown here is "over", this is the narrative, although sometimes the narrative is created by telling people "hey let's remember, it's not actually over". but the feeling among people seems to be that it's over, except the "new normal" involves wearing masks (in Lombardy, not sure how common they are elsewhere) and queueing outside stores, because there's still a limit to how many people can be inside.19:05
LjLpwr22, but then our online groceries deliveries are easy to book again, plenty of free slots, it's no longer "be up at 5am when they open up the slots for the next days 7 days from now"19:05
LjLand there was a protest in Milan, one of the many around the world, with some degree of supposed social distancing19:06
phantomcircuitbin_bash, yeah19:06
LjLpwr22, what i think is that there must be something else slowing down the numbers, in the UK like in Sweden and like in Italy where we may have eased the lockdown after numbers started going down, but, they should already be going up again, imo, based on behaviors19:06
ubLIXprior asymptomatic infection converted to immunity?19:08
LjLpwr22, what it is, your guess is as good as mine... "natural" social distancing that people are adopting (but with these protests? and with people here not bothering to wear a mask on their nose, because covering their mouth is somehow good enough? really?), or maybe temperature and/or sunlight, i.e. seasonality (in which case it will be real bad in autumn when people think it's definitely over, and flu season starts together with COVID peak2)19:08
LjLubLIX, that seems unlikely given the numbers of immune people coming out from studies, which is much higher than the actual known positive, but still much lower than herd immunity rates19:08
LjLhowever19:08
LjLi am interested in those studies that say that *other* coronavirus may confer immunity19:08
LjLif like one of them says, 40% to 60% of people have immunity to some other human coronavirus, and that confers cross-immunity... well, if you're optimistic and say it's 60%, and all of them are immune to SARS-COV-2, then it doesn't take much more than that to reach herd immunity19:09
LjLthat may explain why after 10% or so of infected (real, not just the known ones, 10% is a guesstimate and it depends on the place of course) we're already seeing a slowing down19:10
LjLbut even if this is true, there's probably some combination of factors imo19:10
pwr22LjL: we no longer have queues for stores19:10
pwr22And no one in them is wearing masks19:10
pwr22or distancing ☹︎ 19:10
LjLmasks may not be worn very religiously outdoors, but they are required in many places indoors, and you really must be wearing it. so if sunlight and higher temperature helps, that means that while we already knew that most infections happened indoors, now the risk is almost entirely indoors, and that's where masks are actually being worn19:11
LjLso masks could be helping a fair bit, especially if, despite not being completely protective since few are wearing FPP3, viral load plays a role in severity19:12
LjLpwr22, well that seems a bit reckless, people are just allowed in stores as before, as many as you can fit, and they're not wearing masks?19:12
ubLIXasymptomatic>immunity + cross reactive immunity + face coverings + advancing knowledge>behaviour, it adds up19:12
LjLubLIX, well that's what i'm saying is probably the case. my biggest worry is if seasonality also plays a big role, by september people will be more careless, so once factor will already have gone down, and then suddenly... no more sunlight either19:13
LjLand then there are also these studies i've been shown that i had completely missed where apparently the people with mild disease *don't have the virus in their blood*. this is not directly relevant since i know of no reason why people would have it "less in the blood" now... but it changes the picture i had of how COVID "operates" a *lot*19:14
LjLso i dunno, we may have to rethink a few things19:14
pwr22<LjL "pwr22, well that seems a bit rec"> Yes19:15
ubLIXcan you give links for those studies?19:15
ubLIX(i made a cursory search a few days ago but didn't stumble on much)19:17
pwr22LjL: we also have the potential that the virus may mutate seasonally too like the flu19:19
LjLpwr22, well other coronaviruses don't do that so let's hope not or that'll be a huge hassle to say the least. let me find the studies, i trust logs will help19:20
BrainstormUpdates for Mayotte: +24 cases (now 2175), +3 deaths (now 28) since a day ago — Brazil: +7753 cases (now 719449), +481 deaths (now 37840) since an hour ago — Louisiana, US: +562 cases (now 43612), +13 deaths (now 2962) since 22 hours ago — Arizona, US: +618 cases (now 28296), +23 deaths (now 1070) since a day ago19:24
LjLpwr22, not sure if there were more but the discussion included https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/22221751.2020.1732837 and https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/trf.1584119:24
LjLthe bot just sent updates for Italy and the UK, but the way19:25
LjLnot great updates for either country19:25
LjLBrainstorm> United Kingdom: +1741 cases (now 289140), +286 deaths (now 40883) since a day ago — Italy: +283 cases (now 235561), +79 deaths (now 34043) since a day ago19:25
LjLhttps://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/931591 was also involved but i can't access this19:30
BrainstormUpdates for Eswatini: +31 cases (now 371) since 21 hours ago — US: +131 cases (now 2.0 million), +12 deaths (now 113482) since 22 minutes ago — World: +209 cases (now 7.3 million), +15 deaths (now 411219) since 22 minutes ago — Pennsylvania, US: +131 cases (now 80847) since 22 minutes ago19:39
ubLIXLjL: i'm not seeing why it's surprising that virus should not be detectable in blood for mild cases20:22
BrainstormUpdates for Zimbabwe: +27 cases (now 314) since 22 hours ago — Ohio, US: +299 cases (now 39162), +9 deaths (now 2421) since 19 hours ago — New Jersey, US: +184 cases (now 167101), +56 deaths (now 12348) since 19 hours ago — US: +486 cases (now 2.0 million), +86 deaths (now 113568) since 52 minutes ago20:24
LjLubLIX, well i'm assuming not detectable = not there. may be an incorrect assumption. but if it's just *not there*, then yeah, i'm surprised it stays in the respiratory tract, makes you possibly sick in a mild way, but never enters your blood. why? just because i had assumed otherwise, i guess20:28
ubLIXi assumed (concerning the blood-air barrier) that mild illness meant that the infection was contained within the upper and lower respiratory tract, ie that the alveolar/capillary membranes ('designed' to be permeable to gases) had not yet been degraded to permeability to viral particles. that severe illness followed systemic infection subsequent to degradation of the blood-air barrier allowing20:35
ubLIXthe virus to enter the bloodstream20:35
LjLwell it may have been obvious to anyone who knew anatomy, but i didn't, and mostly still don't, despite catching up with some things20:37
LjLbut if it's this way then surely people should get tested in the blood whenever they test positive in the swabs, to see if they're about to you know, get sick a lot and die?20:38
ubLIXi think that is what one of the things one of those papers was saying20:39
ubLIXimmune response mediated inflammation, if sufficiently severe or long standing, will (as well as filling up these spaces with debris) eventually make these membranes permeable enough for virus to cross into bloodstream, is my understanding20:40
LjLubLIX, well it's good it's saying it, would be even better if it were done in practice perhaps20:42
BrainstormUpdates for South Africa: +2112 cases (now 52991), +82 deaths (now 1162) since a day ago — Ecuador: +539 cases (now 43917), +48 deaths (now 3690) since a day ago — Channel Islands: +1 cases (now 565), +2 deaths (now 48) since a day ago — World: +4642 cases (now 7.3 million), +172 deaths (now 411579) since 35 minutes ago20:54
ubLIXi assume it's standard blood work if you're ill enough to go into hospital20:59
ubLIXnow, at least, if not in february 21:00
LjLubLIX, but the papers suggest that if you're *not* ill enough to go to hospital, whether it's in your blood may predict whether you will be21:03
ubLIXwell the logistics of handling nasal swab testing was hard enough for some countries..21:05
LjLubLIX, but if the UK had also done blood testing it could have *tripled* the ostensible number of tests performed instead of just doubled!21:06
ubLIXand better triaged patients, apparently!21:06
LjLliterally a win-win-win21:09
ubLIXthat paper mentioning the weak or on-and-off in-blood signal, suggesting ebb and flow of battle in the destruction of membranes (and given that reactive oxygen species are used by immune system to destroy friend and foe alike (mediating membrane destruction/permeability)) makes me more interested in the possible benefits of high dose anti-oxident treatment with the likes of N-acetylcysteine21:13
ubLIXs/destruction/destruction and repair/21:15
ubLIXthe immune/viral species kinetics, though21:18
BrainstormUpdates for Guyana: +11 deaths (now 23) since 2 days ago — Tennessee, US: +631 cases (now 27575), +14 deaths (now 435) since 23 hours ago — Georgia (US), US: +752 cases (now 53249), +77 deaths (now 2285) since 23 hours ago — Illinois, US: +797 cases (now 129212), +94 deaths (now 6018) since 23 hours ago21:54
nixonixany good links on those membrane permeable for virus due to inflammation subject?22:04
ubLIXyou could google neutrophil+permeable and rummage/deep-dive from there22:11
ubLIXthe title of this 1998 paper stands out: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/(SICI)1097-4652(199807)176:1%3C76::AID-JCP9%3E3.0.CO;2-522:11
ubLIXbut a study of the role of reactive oxygen species in immune system function might be more productive in the long run22:12
nixonixah neutrophil infiltration. ill check that paper later, thanks22:26
BrainstormUpdates for Yemen: +28 cases (now 524), +15 deaths (now 127) since 22 hours ago — Peru: +4040 cases (now 203736), +167 deaths (now 5738) since 22 hours ago — Arkansas, US: +340 cases (now 10080), +6 deaths (now 161) since 22 hours ago — South Carolina, US: +428 cases (now 15228), +11 deaths (now 568) since a day ago23:09
BrainstormUpdates for Metropolitana, Chile: +8942 cases (now 112136), +766 deaths (now 1950) since 2 days ago — Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, Russia: +244 cases (now 3475), +1 deaths (now 21) since 2 days ago — Karachay-Cherkess, Russia: +149 cases (now 1654), +2 deaths (now 9) since 2 days ago — Kabardino-Balkarian, Russia: +152 cases (now 3424), +4 deaths (now 33) since 2 days ago23:24
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Why Children Are Less Affected by COVID-19 Than Adults: Potential Immunological Factors and the Renin-Angiotensin System Associated Mechanisms (80 votes) | https://redd.it/gzhqe923:28
ryoumathis might be a really dumb idea, but to reduce transmission from protests, in principle, could we have a new type of protest in which non-protestors who would have gone to a restaurant or whatever, find a protestor, then stay at home and say that they are the designated stay at home protestor for that protestor?23:45
ryoumago ahead and laugh if it is ridiculous23:45
Gnari farted23:46

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