CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Smash Mouth plays to packed crowds at Sturges Ralley: Not the sharpest tool in the shed (10018 votes) | https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/smash-mouth-singer-mocks-coronavirus-pandemic-packed-sturgis-motorcycle-rally-n1236409 | https://redd.it/i8dfzm | 00:11 |
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Jigsy | [22:40:26] <tinwhiskers> Hopefully from this we'll develop a better "if you're sick stay home" work ethos instead of "come to work sick or you're fired" ethos. | 00:20 |
Jigsy | I admire your optimism. | 00:20 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +65657 cases (now 20.8 million), +1394 deaths (now 751866) since 2 hours ago — Brazil: +41676 cases (now 3.2 million), +780 deaths (now 104201) since 5 hours ago — Colombia: +12066 cases (now 422519), +362 deaths (now 13837) since a day ago — US: +9597 cases (now 5.4 million), +227 deaths (now 168888) since 2 hours ago | 00:22 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Pandemic relief negotiations at a standstill; U.S. case numbers warped by data gaps → https://is.gd/pU8kqk | 00:28 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +4769 cases (now 20.8 million), +168 deaths (now 752034) since 33 minutes ago — Ecuador: +1547 cases (now 97110), +33 deaths (now 5984) since a day ago — US: +1562 cases (now 5.4 million), +68 deaths (now 168956) since 33 minutes ago — Panama: +913 cases (now 77377), +23 deaths (now 1703) since 21 hours ago | 00:52 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Research exposes new vulnerability in SARS-CoV-2 (82 votes) | https://news.northwestern.edu/stories/2020/08/research-exposes-new-vulnerability-in-sars-cov-2/ | https://redd.it/i8dyf3 | 01:11 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Accuracy of U.S. coronavirus data thrown into question as decline in testing skews drop in new cases → https://is.gd/rytXC6 | 01:17 |
LjL | color me surprised | 01:18 |
de-facto | lol | 01:24 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: It's now a felony in Illinois to assault a retail worker who is enforcing face mask rules → https://is.gd/XI6hc2 | 01:36 |
LjL | it's been "now" a felony for like the past four days, Brainstorm | 01:36 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Argentina: +7663 cases (now 268574), +125 deaths (now 5213) since 9 hours ago — World: +17293 cases (now 20.9 million), +281 deaths (now 752315) since 48 minutes ago — Brazil: +5689 cases (now 3.2 million), +62 deaths (now 104263) since an hour ago — US: +1996 cases (now 5.4 million), +43 deaths (now 168999) since 48 minutes ago | 01:37 |
darsie | I was kicked out of a supermarket where I used a tape measure to keep 1 m distance to others as required. | 01:38 |
darsie | By mall security. | 01:39 |
LjL | i don't think they *require* you to use a pointy instrument towards other people | 01:39 |
LjL | in fact i am not surprised they failed to allow it | 01:39 |
darsie | It's not pointy. It has a 90 degree angle at the end. | 01:40 |
darsie | And everyone should stay 1 m distant from me, anyways, so there shouldn't be a problem. | 01:41 |
darsie | Those people who come too close endanger our lives. | 01:41 |
darsie | Mine, theirs, and many others. | 01:42 |
de-facto | hence wear a mask | 01:42 |
darsie | That's another rule. | 01:43 |
de-facto | get a proper FFP3 mask if you want to be absolutely sure | 01:44 |
darsie | That's the horribly pointy tape measure: https://images.obi.de/product/AT/1500x1500/767622_1.jpg | 01:44 |
de-facto | lol | 01:44 |
LjL | yes, those have sharp edges and i'm *utterly* unsurprised that you'd be kicked out from the supermarket welding such a thing around extended | 01:44 |
LjL | you must be one of those people who take things to a literal extreme. that doesn't always work out well in society. | 01:44 |
LjL | if you had cut someone with the edge of that thing, you'd be in a lawsuit with potentially a lot of money to pay and a huge amount of hassles | 01:45 |
LjL | i think it was an irresponsible "stunt", although maybe you don't view it like a stunt at all | 01:45 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Kamala Harris blames Trump for severity of U.S. coronavirus outbreak: He failed to take it 'seriously from the start' → https://is.gd/Ym2SAp | 01:45 |
de-facto | i think it probably was comically funny, almost like Sheldon Cooper :)) | 01:46 |
darsie | Handing out paper is probably as dangerous. | 01:47 |
de-facto | and btw its 1.5m :) | 01:47 |
darsie | Paper has sharpe edges, too. | 01:47 |
darsie | It's 1 m in Austria. | 01:47 |
de-facto | oh Austria i thought you are from Germany (obi.de) | 01:47 |
darsie | And most people underestimate 1 m. | 01:47 |
LjL | de-facto, it might have been comically funny too but while maybe i'm just not a very fun person, i suspect most store mall security also aren't | 01:48 |
de-facto | yeah just make it 1.5-2m and wear a proper mask, much more relaxing :) | 01:48 |
de-facto | imagining it just reminded me of the series The Big Bang Theory with that pedantic Sheldon Cooper | 01:49 |
LjL | FFP3 are ridiculously expensive here now (if they can be found at all); FFP2 are also expensive, and most of the time they are KN95, which were shown to be, in about half of cases, practically fake (not very effective at all); if i were to settle for "just" surgical masks, well, i don't know what a surgical mask is anymore since after the government created 50 cent price-capped "surgical" masks that any company is allowed to make (i just found them from a | 01:50 |
LjL | company normally making bedsheets), i have no idea what i should actually buy for something not of a completely unknown standard | 01:50 |
darsie | The edge may be a bit sharp, but the tape bends very easily when pushed, so it's really a very low risk compared to death or long term organ damag. | 01:50 |
de-facto | i just bought some proper FFP3 for 7.7€ each | 01:50 |
de-facto | FFP2 was like 5.6€ or such each | 01:51 |
LjL | de-facto, it's a lot of money for something that you can't even safely re-use by spraying some alcohol on it | 01:51 |
darsie | It's not like I'm slashing around with an axe. | 01:51 |
LjL | darsie, well if you were, you wouldn't have been escorted out, you'd have been arrested | 01:51 |
darsie | If you were slashirg around wiht an axe you'd have been arrested, too. | 01:52 |
darsie | But we didn't do that. | 01:53 |
darsie | So why say this? | 01:53 |
LjL | uhm, yes, i would've, that's entirely my point. | 01:53 |
LjL | because you used "<22darsie18> It's not like I'm slashing around with an axe." as a sort of excuse for what you did | 01:53 |
LjL | there is a proportionate response | 01:53 |
LjL | escorting you out was proportionate to you doing something that only a dumbass would do | 01:53 |
darsie | I'm pretty annoyed that people don't keep distant. | 01:54 |
darsie | And they don't get escorted out. | 01:54 |
darsie | If it's no big deal, then don't make it the law. | 01:54 |
de-facto | just think about the reasoning behind it and try to align your actions with that | 01:56 |
darsie | Another supermarket suggested in an announcement to keep one baby elephant or one arms length distance. When I used my arm as measure, some guy aggressively asked me if I'm crazy. | 01:57 |
LjL | did you touch that guy | 01:58 |
darsie | no | 01:58 |
LjL | then perhaps he should have asked non-aggressively ;) | 01:58 |
darsie | Are you crazy? | 01:59 |
LjL | arguably | 01:59 |
LjL | i have a question too, it's really to understand. are you autistic, or somewhere on the spectrum? | 01:59 |
EricGrahamMacEac | !cases USA | 01:59 |
darsie | idk | 02:00 |
LjL | because hearing that you should "keep one arm's length" and interpreting that as actually holding out your arm to people | 02:00 |
EricGrahamMacEac | #cases USA | 02:00 |
CovBot | In United States there have been a total of 5,356,843 cases as of 2020-08-12 23:33:00 UTC. Of these 2,385,485 (44.5%) are still sick or may have recovered without being recorded, 2,802,359 (52.3%) have definitely recovered and 168,999 (3.2%) have died. | 02:00 |
LjL | that's something probably pretty innocuous, but that i can only imagine a person with some "literal interpretation issues" (autism spectrum comes with those) to do | 02:00 |
de-facto | there is something like the personal space (physically) around people for which invasion (even without touching) will be seen as aggressive gesture by most people, does not really matter if with measuring tape or arms length or whatever | 02:02 |
darsie | Lots of people invade that space in the supermarket. | 02:03 |
EricGrahamMacEac | de-facto: LjL darsie | 02:03 |
de-facto | LMAO | 02:04 |
darsie | I'm not in the mood for laughing. | 02:04 |
darsie | I hope lots of idiots die from cv. | 02:05 |
de-facto | come on relax, noone deserves to die from it. | 02:07 |
Goombay | darsie: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/laurenstrapagiel/north-paulding-high-school-suspensions-for-hallway-photos | 02:13 |
Goombay | science deniers + fox news = kill others | 02:14 |
de-facto | here they have tape marks at the floor of supermarkets so people can en-queue with the required 1.5 m distance, its not strictly enforced though but they do strictly enforce wearing of masks indoors in the supermarkets and some also require mandatory usage of shopping venture to ensure that only a limited amount of people can enter the store (depending on the floor area) | 02:16 |
de-facto | some of them even provide hand sanitizers at the entrance which is pretty neat | 02:17 |
de-facto | i am not sure if they already thought about air hygiene concepts, usually those stores dont have windows but some sort of air conditioners (which might either be good or bad, depending on their flow and filtering concepts) | 02:18 |
de-facto | imho the importance of air hygiene is still underestimated in most places | 02:21 |
tinwhiskers | yeah | 02:22 |
de-facto | for (one extreme) example the spread via aerosol in that Tönnies slaughterhouse reached 8m and more with AC cooling air at 10°C falling onto the workers from above, so distance of 1m or 1.5m would not make a lot of difference in such scenarios when they are wearing masks hence "ballistic" droplets don't play a big role anymore | 02:27 |
tinwhiskers | the WHO (and therefore Fauci) still seem to say it's only a minor contributing factor and that droplets and surface contamination are still the major causes of transfer. | 02:27 |
tinwhiskers | as usual, rather than just saying "As yet there is no good evidence that aerosols play an important part in the spread" they tend to word it in a way that suggests the are confident it does not play a significant part. Their wording has been pretty poor to date IMO. | 02:29 |
de-facto | i think it depends strongly on the environment and circumstances, outdoors in sunny weather with wind it may not play a big role (e.g. at the beach or such), then people spitting at each others without masks or contact surface contamination may be the major infection paths, but if its indoors without much air exchange and people using their voice (loud environment, choir etc) or do physical demanding work (like those slaughterhouses) | 02:30 |
de-facto | aerosol may even be the main infection paths | 02:30 |
tinwhiskers | yeah | 02:30 |
tinwhiskers | their wording errs on the side of certainty rather than safety | 02:31 |
tinwhiskers | given we have mounting evidence that aerosols may be important it would be prudent imo to have communication that says that rather than waiting until it's too late. | 02:32 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Sweden’s ‘herd immunity’ approach to COVID-19 → https://is.gd/aowDeT | 02:34 |
de-facto | true, because they know their statements will be seen as the last confirmation of something, that's probably why they are overly cautious which sometimes is not too helpful because it means unacceptable delays until something is rock solidly proven | 02:35 |
tinwhiskers | Would it be so bad to simply say, "there is a growing body of evidence that suggests aerosol spread may be an important factor". I mean, that's technically correct and errs on the side of caution, which is really what we should be doing. "It is therefore recommended that people take precautions against aerosol spread in enclosed spaces, such as wearing masks". | 02:35 |
groto[m] | can anyone shed light on why south africa is having fewer cases per day? | 02:35 |
de-facto | maybe they should not wait but actively confirm it for themselves to speed up their recommendations | 02:36 |
de-facto | arent they in lockdown there in SA? | 02:36 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +3346 cases (now 20.9 million), +122 deaths (now 752437) since an hour ago — US: +3077 cases (now 5.4 million), +122 deaths (now 169121) since an hour ago — Guadeloupe: +50 cases (now 367) since 2 days ago — Fr. Polynesia: +43 cases (now 112) since 14 hours ago | 02:38 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +3346 cases (now 20.9 million), +122 deaths (now 752437) since an hour ago — US: +3077 cases (now 5.4 million), +122 deaths (now 169121) since an hour ago — Guadeloupe: +50 cases (now 367) since 2 days ago — Fr. Polynesia: +43 cases (now 112) since 14 hours ago | 02:38 |
groto[m] | <de-facto "arent they in lockdown there in "> let me check wiki | 02:38 |
de-facto | looks like their daily new cases decline since July 20 or such | 02:38 |
groto[m] | ctrl-f lockdown didn't find anything in july | 02:40 |
groto[m] | Im looking at this page: | 02:41 |
groto[m] | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_South_Africa | 02:41 |
tinwhiskers | Today South Africa has announced they may ease lockdown restrictions - so they must be currently in lockdown. | 02:41 |
de-facto | cause and effect on cases are separated often by a multi-generation delay in the infection chains, so easily a month or such | 02:41 |
groto[m] | Oh! i think they call it a state of disaster rather than lockdown | 02:41 |
tinwhiskers | They are currently in Level 3 lockdown and about to move to level 2. | 02:42 |
groto[m] | source? | 02:42 |
tinwhiskers | (whatever their levels mean) | 02:42 |
de-facto | seen that too on titles with a quick google search | 02:42 |
tinwhiskers | google: south africa lockdown... but also wikipedia says they went into lockdown on March 26 | 02:43 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Pandemic relief negotiations at a standstill; U.S. case numbers warped by data gaps → https://is.gd/pU8kqk | 02:43 |
groto[m] | All the july stuff. | 02:43 |
tinwhiskers | Eased to level 4 on 1 May, and down to level 3 on June 1. | 02:43 |
groto[m] | --- | 02:44 |
groto[m] | surely they haven't been on lockdown since march 26? thats too long and the country already had to borrow money | 02:44 |
tinwhiskers | err... ok | 02:44 |
groto[m] | found some articles talking about easing lockdown thanks | 02:45 |
groto[m] | there cases started declining a lot on july 24, | 02:46 |
groto[m] | Covid19 still has the 2 week rule right? as in around july 10th, they must have done something to control cases? | 02:46 |
tinwhiskers | outbreaks tend to be noticed in about 2 weeks but the results of lockdown policies often take a bit longer than that to be noticed. | 02:48 |
tinwhiskers | I mean, the positive effects tend to take longer than the negative effects. | 02:48 |
groto[m] | yea SA 'state of disaster, prohibiting gatherings of more than 100 peop' | 02:49 |
groto[m] | so basically lockdown | 02:49 |
groto[m] | makes sense | 02:49 |
de-facto | %cases South Africa | 02:50 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: In South Africa, there have been 568919 confirmed cases (1.0% of the population) and 11010 deaths (1.9% of cases) as of 4 hours ago. 3.3 million tests were performed (17.3% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.1% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 2.5% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=South%20Africa for time series data. | 02:50 |
de-facto | http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=South%20Africa&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&miscType=Reff | 02:50 |
de-facto | wow 17.3% positive tests is almost an order of magnitude too high, should do more testing there | 02:51 |
de-facto | not sure if that is a cumulative number though | 02:52 |
groto[m] | found it! july 12 their lockdown level increased. | 02:52 |
groto[m] | i doubt they could afford to test more | 02:52 |
groto[m] | " In late July it was announced that South Africa would be taking out a R70 billion (US$4.3 billion) IMF loan[185] increasing the country's total debt to GDP ratio to 83%" | 02:52 |
de-facto | hmm https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoothed even says 23.3% positive tests there | 02:52 |
de-facto | we really need much more, quicker and cheaper tests | 02:53 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: 'Archbishop' of Florida church selling bleach 'miracle cure' arrested with son (10253 votes) | https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/12/mark-grenon-archbishop-florida-church-selling-bleach-miracle-cure-arrested-son | https://redd.it/i8i1h4 | 02:54 |
tinwhiskers | It seems unlikely further restrictions on July 12 accounted for the immediate dropoff of cases starting on July 12. We must be seeing the effect of earlier measures there. | 02:54 |
de-facto | even if not as sensitive or specific, if cheap and available in large quantities such tests may help much more in catching the infectious window in time hence end more infection chains if used in wide spread regularly | 02:55 |
groto[m] | july 12, 'alcohol ban was reintroduced along with a new curfew from 21:00 until 4:00' | 02:57 |
groto[m] | maybe alcohol makes covid easier to catch? | 02:57 |
tinwhiskers | it makes people hug each other :-) | 02:57 |
groto[m] | so maybe banning alc is the secret :p | 02:57 |
LjL | hmmm alcohol | 02:57 |
LjL | good idea | 02:57 |
de-facto | but only 98% ethanol :) | 02:58 |
de-facto | lol | 02:58 |
groto[m] | any guesses on how a night time curfew would help? | 02:58 |
tinwhiskers | people stay at home more | 02:59 |
de-facto | no partying which is a major infection vector according to those superspread events | 02:59 |
de-facto | e.g. apres-ski parties, carnival, night-clubs etc pp | 02:59 |
groto[m] | i assumed banning alc would shut down most parties/clubs, but maybe the SAfrican's know how to party without? | 03:00 |
groto[m] | i'm very impressed by how they managed to lower their new cases, did not think they would have been able to pull it off | 03:01 |
de-facto | also meeting at the bar indoors and forgetting about distancing by getting drunk or shouting at each others because the music is too loud would be a problem i guess | 03:02 |
groto[m] | reddit's r/china_flu has a lot of conspiracy theories about why usa has managed to lower their new cases. r/coronavirus hasn't really talked about it much. | 03:03 |
de-facto | so them having a night time curfew would strongly suppress the probability of all such scenarios | 03:03 |
groto[m] | true about curfews, should help at least | 03:03 |
groto[m] | any ideas about how usa managed to lower their new cases? | 03:03 |
de-facto | hmm, Trump once mentioned that testing and finding cases would correlate | 03:04 |
darsie | gn | 03:04 |
groto[m] | darsie: gn | 03:05 |
de-facto | gn8 | 03:05 |
groto[m] | yea trump said that during that axios interview | 03:06 |
LjL | de-facto, well i had in mind more an alcohol-based beverage | 03:06 |
LjL | i'm not sure 98% ethanol is something i can bear | 03:06 |
groto[m] | LjL: how did italy manage to avoid a 'significant' 2nd wave? | 03:06 |
LjL | groto[m], it didn't | 03:07 |
LjL | we are having a second wave | 03:07 |
de-facto | idk i really do hope USA found something to lower the real number of their cases, but tbh since the data was taken away from CDC I have difficulties estimating the trustworthiness of the data | 03:07 |
LjL | it's not yet "significant" in the sense that it's not *obvious* on the graph yet | 03:07 |
LjL | but just give it a little time, it's brewing | 03:07 |
LjL | we got it first the first time, we can get it last the second time | 03:07 |
groto[m] | de-facto: yea thats r/china_flu's theories too. the data is returned to teh cdc i thnink | 03:08 |
LjL | groto[m], just think, we had stabilized around 150-250 cases a day, while today we've had 481, and it's not the first time. a doubling is significant. | 03:08 |
groto[m] | LjL: hmm okay | 03:08 |
LjL | groto[m], even more significantly, we had stabilized around 0.50-0.60% of tests turning out positive, while now we're around 1% or in excess of it | 03:08 |
groto[m] | LjL: oh i see it! the graph has to be zoomed in | 03:08 |
LjL | unfortunately for me, today Lombardy had a ton of cases again | 03:09 |
LjL | in the past few days i could secretly hope it would just turn bad for the *rest* of italy | 03:09 |
LjL | and leave us alone this time | 03:09 |
LjL | but i guess not | 03:10 |
LjL | groto[m], you can also see it in this view: https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy&cumulative=no&smooth=yes | 03:10 |
groto[m] | i heard even areas that were ravaged didn't get significant herd immunity | 03:10 |
LjL | non-cumulative cases, smoothed a bit | 03:10 |
LjL | groto[m], yeah according to the state's seroprevalence survay, Lombardy had 7.5% as a whole, while one of the worst-hit municipalities is 24% | 03:11 |
LjL | even 24% is probably not enough for significant herd immunity | 03:11 |
LjL | nevermind 7.5%, or the nationwide 2.5% | 03:11 |
LjL | there was a lot of wishful thinking, "it'll go away in the summer", "we've probably already developed herd immunity without realizing", that always got on my nerves | 03:11 |
groto[m] | <LjL "non-cumulative cases, smoothed a"> huh cool, roughly how does smooth work? | 03:11 |
LjL | (not just in italy, to be fair) | 03:11 |
LjL | groto[m], you should ask tinwhiskers for the specific, but i believe it's basically a moving average | 03:12 |
LjL | you take a window of more than one value, and average over that window | 03:12 |
LjL | you do that for each point in the graph | 03:12 |
LjL | the larger you make the window, the smoother it'll look | 03:12 |
groto[m] | <LjL "groto, you should ask tinwhisker"> makes sense | 03:13 |
LjL | without smoothing, things look too confusing due to the effects of weekly variation | 03:13 |
groto[m] | natural herd immunity sounds, like, impossible | 03:13 |
LjL | we always have the least testing on monday, and the most on thursday | 03:13 |
LjL | groto[m], oh well it might be possible if immunity is long-lasting (i think that's still an open question, i wouldn't just take for granted it's short), but it would cost *many* lives... | 03:13 |
LjL | it's already been many lives, so i mean MANY lives | 03:14 |
groto[m] | vaccine in ~4 months hopefully | 03:15 |
LjL | eh | 03:15 |
LjL | maybe, for a select few | 03:15 |
LjL | i probably wouldn't take the one that's available in 4 months even if i were offered it (and i doubt i would be) | 03:15 |
LjL | but if they do make it, and they select the few well, it will help | 03:16 |
groto[m] | <LjL "i probably wouldn't take the one"> Even if's it Not a live-weakened-coronavirus vaccine? why? | 03:17 |
de-facto | btw since most countries have weekly periodicity in their data, would it make sense to compare to same days of previous weeks? e.g. Monday with Monday n weeks ago n=1,2,3,... same for Tuesday etc | 03:17 |
groto[m] | tru | 03:17 |
LjL | groto[m], there are many things that could go wrong in a vaccine, not just the virus becoming non-weakened again... side effects need to be studies, and with over vaccines, there was like 20 years to study them. in this case, there's barely months to study them. there could be serious side effect that arise only later | 03:18 |
tinwhiskers | groto[m]: the moving average is a 7 day centered moving average, except at end of the data where there is less than 3 days of data either side of the center point, where it drops to a 5, 3, then 1 day average. I'm not very happy with it tbh. | 03:18 |
LjL | if i were a person at high risk of very serious disease, i would make a different assessment | 03:18 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, yeah the rightmost side always looks a little wonky | 03:18 |
LjL | which i believe is the mathematical term for it | 03:19 |
groto[m] | de-facto: i was looking through american coronavirus subreddits, the news hasn't picked up like NY. which looks like 2 possibilities: | 03:19 |
groto[m] | - the cases actually are decreasing | 03:19 |
groto[m] | - it doesn't sell papers anymore to report on overflowing hospitals | 03:19 |
tinwhiskers | yeah, but doing a trailing 7 day moving average seems even worse so I'm torn. | 03:19 |
tinwhiskers | yes, I think wonky is the right term | 03:19 |
LjL | de-facto, yeah maybe it would make sense, but i kind of just look at the percentage of positive tests instead | 03:19 |
groto[m] | tinwhiskers: thxs for your work! | 03:20 |
de-facto | groto[m], i think i remember reading something like testings dropped more than cases for USA, but not sure about the source | 03:20 |
tinwhiskers | you're welcome | 03:20 |
groto[m] | LjL: risk assessment, makes sense | 03:20 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, if your window is n long, then make a n/2 long linear projection of what the data is going to be based on the previous n/2, and use that to average on, as if you actually had the future data | 03:21 |
LjL | too shady? | 03:21 |
groto[m] | de-facto: i saw that when trump/cdc/hhss (or whatever it's called) switched systems, some hospitals in like texas stopped reporting bc they had trouble switching to a new system | 03:22 |
tinwhiskers | everyone else seems to do a trailing 7 day moving average | 03:22 |
tinwhiskers | doing a bit of forecasting doesn't seem like a terrible idea though | 03:22 |
de-facto | tinwhiskers, what would happen if you would do an extrapolation (e.g fit a polynom into the future, easiest would be constant, linear, ... etc) into the future (e.g. estimate cases which did not occur yet) and take that for doing the sliding average until center point reached "today"? | 03:23 |
groto[m] | tinwhiskers: also maybe add a section on the website saying how the calculation works | 03:23 |
tinwhiskers | I think that's what LjL is suggesting | 03:23 |
de-facto | groto[m], yeah the decline in daily new cases and the switch in data occurred at similar dates | 03:24 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, i guess (even shadier?) you could transition from moving to trailing over the last 7 days. weighted average of the two, err, averages, where it starts with 100% centered, 0% trailing, and ends with 0% centered, 100% trailing | 03:24 |
LjL | well i was suggesting just a linear fit, not a polynomial which seems overkill and perhaps too sensitive, but yes | 03:24 |
tinwhiskers | well, it's the right-hand side that is worst affected by the trailing moving average as well. | 03:24 |
de-facto | tinwhiskers, yep | 03:24 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, hm | 03:24 |
tinwhiskers | when cases are rising it underestimates the current situation | 03:24 |
LjL | you're right | 03:24 |
tinwhiskers | since most people where interested in "what's happening today" I didn't like it doing that. | 03:25 |
de-facto | tinwhiskers, easiest woudl be just to repeat the latest value (e.g. constant), more accurate would be a linear interpolation (e.g. linear trend), even more accurate would be a quadratic term etc | 03:26 |
LjL | i disagree that the higher you make the degree, the "more accurate" it gets | 03:26 |
LjL | higher-degree polynomials become progressively more sensitive to noise | 03:26 |
LjL | you may end up with something quite extreme | 03:26 |
tinwhiskers | yeah | 03:26 |
LjL | we're talking about a short window (7 points) of shoddy data | 03:26 |
LjL | i'd do linear | 03:27 |
LjL | well, actually 7/2 points | 03:27 |
LjL | for some value of 7/2 | 03:27 |
de-facto | doing quadratic or even exponential extrapolation probably is overkill, constant or linear (regression) probably would completely suffice for getting rid of the end kinks in smoothing | 03:27 |
tinwhiskers | I fiddled with a few options (no extrapolation though) and settled on that system as the least terrible. | 03:27 |
LjL | de-facto, constant would still underestimate any major increase, which tinwhiskers seems to be concerned about (and i can see the concern) | 03:28 |
de-facto | LjL, yes i agree | 03:28 |
groto[m] | yall heard the conspiracy that bolsonaro nvr got corona and pretended to get it to boost his 'just a flu' message? | 03:28 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, anyway, any refinements would be welcome but right now there are data for some countries (even on the non-Covidly dataset) that are just completely absolutely terrible (*cough*Spain). i wish something could be done about that. is there not a source that isn't crap... | 03:29 |
LjL | groto[m], no, but i thought about it for like an entire minute once | 03:29 |
LjL | he sure seems to have been better off than Boris Johnson | 03:29 |
LjL | but then again, sometimes it *is* mild | 03:29 |
LjL | so i don't feel i have a concrete reason to call conspiracy | 03:29 |
tinwhiskers | there could be some better sources around now, but motivation hasn't been plentiful. | 03:29 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Obesity and Mortality Among Patients Diagnosed With COVID-19: Results From an Integrated Health Care Organization (82 votes) | https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-3742#f1-M203742 | https://redd.it/i8l50x | 03:30 |
tinwhiskers | if anyone knows of a better data source I'd be willing to take a look though. | 03:30 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, that's understandable. but i guess if you were feeling motivated at some point, using a better source should probably have priority over refining the moving average | 03:30 |
groto[m] | <LjL "so i don't feel i have a concret"> same, i need more evidence of him faking it | 03:30 |
tinwhiskers | It's basically Johns Hopkins (with some additions for Italy, Canada, US states) vs. covidly at present. | 03:31 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, my understanding from something i read (some tracker website, most probably, but i forget) is that the "only" sources are ultimately WHO which is shoddy (surprise!), ECDC, JHU and... just scraping Wikipedia | 03:31 |
tinwhiskers | heh | 03:31 |
groto[m] | is brazil reporting cases accurately again? | 03:32 |
de-facto | i think google does scraping wikipedia too | 03:32 |
LjL | yes, they do | 03:32 |
groto[m] | de-facto: yea it does | 03:32 |
LjL | they know how to leverage other people's hard work ;) | 03:32 |
LjL | they know it best! | 03:32 |
LjL | that's a cheap shot though, there's nothing wrong with them doing it. although it would be nice if they provided a CSV or something. | 03:33 |
LjL | problem is... Covidly also gets data from Wikipedia, and Covidly data currently *suck horrendously*. so i'm not sure that's a good solution at present | 03:33 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, fwiw, i still think "grab all the sources (well at least those two), and just give whichever number is higher" is going to result in better graphs, since the number one artifact is data just staying the same for more than one day | 03:35 |
groto[m] | spain mayyy not get a 2nd wave, their death rate is still temporarily under control | 03:35 |
LjL | groto[m], how can you say that? i'd say they're fully into their second wave. i'm not looking at the deaths, i'm just looking at the cases, but... well, with any luck, deaths will not only lag behind but even be kept under better control than last time. but still, the cases spiking is what gives you a "wave", no? | 03:36 |
LjL | today they reported more than +3000 cases | 03:36 |
LjL | they were just above +1000 a few days ago | 03:36 |
LjL | if they're not having a spike i don't know who'd be | 03:36 |
tinwhiskers | LjL: you may be right. Early on when JHU had growing pains they had some pretty wild numbers and I shied away from doing that. It also made things like the world total not match very well. However, that may work quite well now. | 03:36 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, you could apply some heuristics if you don't feel entirely comfortable. like for instance, you could use your "preferred" source (so currently JHU, i guess) except in cases where there's zero difference between one day and the next, in which case you'd fall over. or conversely, if delta_today > 2 * delta_yesterday, ignore. | 03:38 |
LjL | fall over as in fall back | 03:39 |
groto[m] | LjL: ok, yes it's definitely a 2nd wave, but: other countries have had big 2nd waves but small 2nd wave deaths. | 03:39 |
groto[m] | Ex usa not testing right for wave 1 and tons of ppl dying. But wave 2, more testing and less ppl dying (assuming trump administration isn't lying or whatnot) | 03:39 |
LjL | but then when i look at Spain, both of those sources are giving a graph with artifacts, so anyway... :\ | 03:39 |
de-facto | hmm but would cases (or peaks) always show at the same date in two different datasets? | 03:40 |
de-facto | they should, but do they? | 03:40 |
groto[m] | so more accurately, spain mayyyy not get a big 2nd death wave. Unlikely tho | 03:40 |
LjL | de-facto, mostly yeah | 03:40 |
LjL | de-facto, sometimes they don't, but in those cases there's generally an issue with one of the data sources | 03:40 |
LjL | not saying that based on any particular knowledge, just from what i've seen in past data | 03:41 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Grandmother of Bolsonaro's Wife dies from Covid-19 → https://is.gd/K5P5gD | 03:41 |
LjL | groto[m], look, he's trying to show that yeah, old people may die, feh! | 03:41 |
de-facto | just mentioning, because if you switch between datasets via algos it might be a cumulative effect especially with delayed periodicity or such | 03:42 |
groto[m] | big being keyword | 03:42 |
LjL | de-facto, well you could avoid cumulative effects by looking at the total instead of the delta, i guess | 03:43 |
groto[m] | north korea doesn't have their data listed on offloop | 03:43 |
LjL | no they don't. do they have them listed anywhere, though? | 03:44 |
groto[m] | i wrongly assumed that when Nkorea announced they have cases, that they'd start reporting cases | 03:44 |
LjL | heh | 03:45 |
LjL | well maybe they are *somewhere*... for whatever they're worth | 03:45 |
de-facto | possibly, just mentioning it because it may be difficult to deal with various delays on different datasets | 03:45 |
groto[m] | wow all the other dicitiorships i checked are reporting (some) data | 03:46 |
LjL | yes, NK is "special" | 03:46 |
groto[m] | gn! | 03:46 |
LjL | although documents were leaked from Iran showing they had 2x the cases and 3x the deaths | 03:46 |
LjL | 'night | 03:46 |
LjL | sorry, 3x the cases and 2x the deaths | 03:47 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: China says chicken imported from Brazil tests positive for virus; relief talks at a standstill → https://is.gd/pU8kqk | 03:51 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +8695 cases (now 20.9 million), +822 deaths (now 753259) since an hour ago — Mexico: +5858 cases (now 498380), +737 deaths (now 54666) since 20 hours ago — Bolivia: +1743 cases (now 95071), +66 deaths (now 3827) since 20 hours ago — New Zealand: +10 cases (now 1589) since 15 hours ago | 03:53 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, look at Brainstorm doing its job, highlighting New Zealand even though the absolute number is low! | 03:58 |
LjL | (probably a bug) | 03:58 |
LjL | (i mean, not really, but i'm not proud of the "logic" i put in that :P) | 03:58 |
tinwhiskers | heh | 04:00 |
LjL | large = True if delta > min((old[entry]+10)*0.07, float(old.get('delta', 1500))) else False | 04:05 |
LjL | i don't even really know what this means | 04:05 |
LjL | and then | 04:05 |
LjL | sortkey = sortkey or float(delta)*(50.0 if large else 1.0) + (float(delta)**1.5) / (float(old.get('delta', 1500))+1) | 04:05 |
LjL | might as well create a random generator of algebraic operations | 04:06 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Peru: +8875 cases (now 498555), +212 deaths (now 21713) since 21 hours ago — World: +8875 cases (now 20.9 million), +212 deaths (now 753471) since 26 minutes ago | 04:08 |
LjL | %wa population peru | 04:08 |
Brainstorm | LjL, Wolfram|Alpha (Peru | population): Result: 32.2 million people (world rank: 42nd) (2017 estimate) → https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=population+peru | 04:08 |
LjL | yikes. | 04:08 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Venezuela: +1150 cases (now 29088), +9 deaths (now 247) since a day ago — Paraguay: +499 cases (now 8018), +7 deaths (now 93) since 21 hours ago — World: +1903 cases (now 20.9 million) since 20 minutes ago — Honduras: +254 cases (now 48657), +18 deaths (now 1533) since 21 hours ago | 04:23 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: U.S. reports 1,485 coronavirus deaths in a single day → https://is.gd/6R5OWn | 04:48 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Sint Maarten: +29 cases (now 248) since 18 hours ago — World: +1374 cases (now 20.9 million), +17 deaths (now 753445) since 36 minutes ago — Belgium: +639 cases (now 75647), +15 deaths (now 9900) since 21 hours ago — Kazakhstan: +517 cases (now 101372) since 21 hours ago | 04:53 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Turks and Caicos: +17 cases (now 241) since 18 hours ago | 05:08 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: COVID-19 and Severe Obesity: A Big Problem? (82 votes) | https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-5677 | https://redd.it/i8m930 | 05:24 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: For the 2nd day in a row, China reports a case in which someone who recovered from coronavirus months ago has tested positive for COVID-19. He's asymptomatic. This case is in Shanghai. → https://is.gd/uhBA6x | 05:27 |
the-wes | tested positive how? that doesn't necessarily mean contagious | 05:29 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Fargo plant refuses to close after COVID-19 outbreak; infected employee dies → https://is.gd/Vg3Z1u | 05:36 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Grocery workers say morale is at an all-time low: ‘They don’t even treat us like humans anymore’ (10291 votes) | https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/08/12/grocery-workers-coronavirus | https://redd.it/i8moge | 05:42 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Fashion: An online fundraiser to help artisans affected by the pandemic → https://is.gd/kE8jty | 05:46 |
Brainstorm | New from EurekAlert!: Insect diversity boosted by combination of crop diversity and semi-natural habitats: To enhance the number of beneficial insect species in agricultural land, preserving semi-natural habitats and promoting crop diversity are both needed, according to new research published in the British Ecological Society's Journal of Applied of Ecology. → https://is.gd/R2pVuk | 06:24 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Brussels makes face masks mandatory to stop virus spread → https://is.gd/f5U65s | 07:03 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Assam, India: +4593 cases (now 68999), +6 deaths (now 161) since 23 hours ago — France: +4561 cases (now 230874) since 11 hours ago — Puducherry, India: +481 cases (now 6381), +5 deaths (now 96) since 23 hours ago — Norte de Santander, Colombia: +384 cases (now 5492), +25 deaths (now 298) since 23 hours ago | 07:08 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Bolivia’s solution to surging Covid-19 deaths: a mobile crematorium | World news → https://is.gd/j3ZsaS | 07:13 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Two Chinese Patients Test Positive Months After Virus Recovery → https://is.gd/qoZPO0 | 07:22 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Family tests positive for coronavirus in Whittier, Alaska, where most residents live in one big building → https://is.gd/V9xBPj | 07:32 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Belize: +86 cases (now 296) since 17 hours ago — World: +982 cases (now 20.9 million), +5 deaths (now 753563) since 33 minutes ago — Israel: +403 cases (now 88554) since 7 hours ago — Kyrgyzstan: +310 cases (now 41069), +3 deaths (now 1487) since a day ago | 07:38 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: The True Coronavirus Toll in the U.S. Has Already Surpassed 200,000 → https://is.gd/cZMc9X | 07:51 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +857 cases (now 20.9 million), +27 deaths (now 753590) since 36 minutes ago — India: +766 cases (now 2.4 million), +11 deaths (now 47149) since an hour ago — Bhutan: +12 cases (now 128) since an hour ago — Afghanistan: +79 cases (now 37424), +9 deaths (now 1363) since 21 hours ago | 08:08 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Covid-19 lockdown means 115 million Indian children risk malnutrition → https://is.gd/N9omIA | 08:21 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Why are some people protected from Covid-19 without having contracted the disease? → https://is.gd/RHpcWr | 08:30 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: ‘Not getting a flu vaccine is like not wearing a mask:’ What the upcoming flu season could look like → https://is.gd/RrClsi | 08:50 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Philippine President Duterte may be injected with Russia's coronavirus vaccine by next May: Duterte had earlier this week volunteered to participate in trials for the Russian vaccine even as scientists and health experts questioned the safety and effectiveness of the drug. → https://is.gd/qbmEP1 | 08:59 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: San Quentin’s coronavirus outbreak shows why ‘herd immunity’ could mean disaster → https://is.gd/WhYUK2 | 09:09 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: China says chicken imported from Brazil tests positive for virus; relief talks at a standstill → https://is.gd/pU8kqk | 09:28 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Citing covid, terror threat, US urges its citizens to not travel to Pakistan → https://is.gd/JV6irt | 09:38 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +2907 cases (now 20.9 million), +30 deaths (now 753620) since an hour ago — India: +2589 cases (now 2.4 million), +20 deaths (now 47169) since an hour ago — Hungary: +45 cases (now 4813), +2 deaths (now 607) since 23 hours ago — Armenia: +229 cases (now 41023), +3 deaths (now 809) since 23 hours ago | 09:39 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Quest for Covid-19 T cell blood test (80 votes) | https://www.cardiff.ac.uk/news/view/2425277-quest-for-covid-19-t-cell-blood-test | https://redd.it/i8mdr0 | 09:50 |
Brainstorm | New from StatNews: The Trump administration haphazardly gave away millions of Covid-19 masks — to schools, broadcasters, and large corporations: Hundreds of millions of cloth face masks shipped to U.S. agencies, nonprofits, and private companies by the Trump administration appear to have been allocated in a haphazard fashion, according to… → https://is.gd/gg3iHt | 10:36 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Vaping linked to COVID-19 risk in teens and young adults (81 votes) | https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2020/08/vaping-linked-to-covid-19-risk-in-teens-and-young-adults.html | https://redd.it/i8rbhr | 10:38 |
Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Opinion: Instead of lockdowns, teach people how to socialize safely in the time of coronavirus: The "abstinence only" approach to sex education doesn't work nearly as well as the "safe sex" approach. We need to apply similar logic to physical distancing during the Covid-19 pandemic. → https://is.gd/wB2VDG | 10:46 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +12392 cases (now 20.9 million), +232 deaths (now 753852) since an hour ago — Russia: +5057 cases (now 907758), +124 deaths (now 15384) since a day ago — Philippines: +3777 cases (now 147526), +22 deaths (now 2426) since a day ago — Indonesia: +2098 cases (now 132816), +65 deaths (now 5968) since a day ago | 11:09 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Two Chinese patients test Covid positive months after virus recovery → https://is.gd/Y3LxuM | 11:34 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Major Antibody Study Finds 3.4 Million in England Had Covid-19 → https://is.gd/can7OA | 11:43 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Michelle Bolsonaro's grandmother has died of Covid-19 → https://is.gd/mWHtnv | 11:53 |
Brainstorm | New from BMJ: National Pathology Exchange provides robust infrastructure to covid-19 response: Gill and colleagues raise valid points on why local authorities did not have access to data to detect localised outbreaks of covid-19.1 They also state, however, that “test results have been reaching... → https://is.gd/oiYJdo | 12:03 |
Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Covid-19: Inadequate health and safety regulatory planning in the UK: Speed and local capacity in responding to the pandemic cluster was critical in Leicester.12 The city lockdown exposed inadequate national, regional, and local information, surveillance, and... → https://is.gd/cmUVmi | 12:12 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Romania: +1454 cases (now 66631), +53 deaths (now 2860) since a day ago — World: +4621 cases (now 20.9 million), +98 deaths (now 753950) since an hour ago — Bangladesh: +2617 cases (now 269115), +44 deaths (now 3557) since a day ago — El Salvador: +349 cases (now 21993) since 4 hours ago | 12:24 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Routine operations in English hospitals down 67%: The coronavirus pandemic has caused backlogs in many areas of the NHS, including cancer and A&E. → https://is.gd/7jMbuS | 12:32 |
Brainstorm | New from Scientific American: The 1918 Flu Faded in Our Collective Memory: We Might 'Forget' the Coronavirus, Too: Collage of various newspaper headlines related to the previous year's influenza pandemic, Chicago, Illinois, 1919. The image was originally published in 'A Report on an Epidemic of Influenza in the City of Chicago in the Fall of 1918' by [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/nja9b9 | 12:51 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +3797 cases (now 20.9 million), +181 deaths (now 754131) since 43 minutes ago — Iran: +2625 cases (now 336324), +174 deaths (now 19162) since a day ago — Kuwait: +701 cases (now 74486) since 20 hours ago — Switzerland: +234 cases (now 37403) since a day ago | 12:54 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +299 cases (now 20.9 million), +2 deaths (now 754133) since 30 minutes ago — United Arab Emirates: +277 cases (now 63489) since a day ago — Vietnam: +22 cases (now 905), +2 deaths (now 20) since 8 hours ago | 13:09 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: China says chicken imported from Brazil tests positive for virus; relief talks at a standstill → https://is.gd/pU8kqk | 13:20 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +824 cases (now 20.9 million), +18 deaths (now 754151) since 31 minutes ago — Nepal: +525 cases (now 24957), +4 deaths (now 95) since a day ago — St. Martin: +8 cases (now 92) since a day ago — Germany: +25 cases (now 220884) since 6 hours ago | 13:24 |
semitones | Chickens are catching it now? :( | 13:25 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Kamala Harris blames Trump for severity of U.S. coronavirus outbreak: He failed to take it 'seriously from the start' → https://is.gd/Ym2SAp | 13:29 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +204 cases (now 20.9 million), +16 deaths (now 754167) since 35 minutes ago — Madagascar: +125 cases (now 13522), +6 deaths (now 162) since a day ago — Gambia: +79 cases (now 1556), +10 deaths (now 43) since 23 hours ago | 13:54 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Life-style: Dia Mirza: This pandemic is an outcome of our broken relationship with nature → https://is.gd/FMHD3f | 14:08 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Major antibody home test study finds 6% of England COVID-19 infected → https://is.gd/hq4BAB | 14:18 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +12657 cases (now 20.9 million), +124 deaths (now 754291) since 44 minutes ago — India: +11555 cases (now 2.4 million), +105 deaths (now 47274) since 5 hours ago — Croatia: +180 cases (now 6050), +1 deaths (now 161) since a day ago — Palestine: +307 cases (now 15491) since 14 hours ago | 14:25 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): China says chicken imported from Brazil tests positive for coronavirus; relief talks at a standstill → https://is.gd/pU8kqk | 14:27 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: 5 things to know before the stock market opens Thursday: The S&P 500 will attempt to reclaim its record high hit before the coronavirus pandemic. → https://is.gd/SywhZR | 14:37 |
disillusion | %cases cuba | 14:58 |
Brainstorm | disillusion: In Cuba, there have been 3128 confirmed cases (0.0% of the population) and 88 deaths (2.8% of cases) as of 12 hours ago. 309908 tests were performed (1.0% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Cuba for time series data. | 14:58 |
disillusion | %cases vietnam | 15:00 |
Brainstorm | disillusion: In Vietnam, there have been 905 confirmed cases (0.0% of the population) and 20 deaths (2.2% of cases) as of 2 hours ago. 621823 tests were performed (0.1% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Vietnam for time series data. | 15:00 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Syria: +75 cases (now 1402) since a day ago — World: +3175 cases (now 20.9 million), +69 deaths (now 754360) since 46 minutes ago — Saudi Arabia: +1482 cases (now 294519), +34 deaths (now 3303) since 22 hours ago — US: +643 cases (now 5.4 million), +26 deaths (now 169161) since 2 hours ago | 15:05 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: U.S. records over 1,500 new deaths, for the deadliest day since May → https://is.gd/cfjmfJ | 15:06 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: COVID-19 study confirms low transmission in educational settings (83 votes) | https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/08/04/covid-19-study-confirms-low-transmission-in-educational-settings.html | https://redd.it/i8ebpy | 16:04 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: 5 things to know before the stock market opens Thursday: The S&P 500 will attempt to reclaim its record high hit before the coronavirus pandemic. → https://is.gd/SywhZR | 16:04 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: U.S. records over 1,500 new deaths, for the deadliest day since May → https://is.gd/cfjmfJ | 16:14 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +18487 cases (now 21.0 million), +258 deaths (now 754618) since an hour ago — India: +15519 cases (now 2.4 million), +198 deaths (now 47472) since 2 hours ago — US: +1122 cases (now 5.4 million), +9 deaths (now 169170) since an hour ago — Maryland, US: +776 cases (now 98160), +8 deaths (now 3620) since 23 hours ago | 16:20 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Antibody prevalence for SARS-CoV-2 following the peak of the pandemic in England: REACT2 study in 100,000 adults (80 votes) | https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/institute-of-global-health-innovation/Ward-et-al-120820.pdf | https://redd.it/i8wt5n | 16:22 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Trinidad and Tobago: +43 cases (now 369) since 15 hours ago — World: +1336 cases (now 21.0 million), +19 deaths (now 754637) since 18 minutes ago — Virginia, US: +1101 cases (now 103622), +11 deaths (now 2363) since a day ago — US: +1101 cases (now 5.4 million), +11 deaths (now 169181) since 18 minutes ago | 16:35 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Early Spread of COVID-19 Appears Far Greater Than Initially Reported (93 votes) | https://cns.utexas.edu/news/early-spread-of-covid-19-appears-far-greater-than-initially-reported | https://redd.it/i8zicd | 16:52 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: UK trials new Covid-19 smartphone app, includes Indian language versions → https://is.gd/n4SCbx | 16:52 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Americans receiving unemployment benefits drops; U.S. records over 1,500 new deaths → https://is.gd/cfjmfJ | 17:02 |
LjL | ubLIX[m], others: English seroprevalence survey shows 6% prevalence (2.5% in italy, 5% in spain) with the most in london at 13% (7.4% in Lombardy, >10% in Madrid / Central Spain), and 32% were asymptomatic (27% in italy, 32.7% in spain) | 17:18 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Watch live: World Health Organization holds press conference on the coronavirus outbreak: World Health Organization officials are holding a press conference on Thursday to update the public on the coronavirus outbreak that has infected more than 20 million people across the globe. → https://is.gd/I7BT85 | 17:21 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Americans receiving unemployment benefits drops; U.S. records over 1,500 new deaths → https://is.gd/cfjmfJ | 17:31 |
Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network *: ljl-covid: Add initial version of seroprevalence comparison table → https://is.gd/kYBYkD | 17:41 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 — sustained after all? (80 votes) | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-00423-9 | https://redd.it/i8yiwl | 17:46 |
LjL | ↑ IgM became undetectable at around week 10–13. Importantly, although Spike-targeted IgG (IgG-S) declined over time, it remained detectable at relatively high levels until the end of the 6-month study period. | 17:49 |
Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network *: ljl-covid: Add prevalence in health workers, and seroconversion among positive PCR → https://is.gd/xqRvlx | 17:51 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: NCAA’s top medical officer says “very narrow path” to restart sports → https://is.gd/cfjmfJ | 18:00 |
LjL | do you know of any large-scale (country-scale, or say >50k people up) seroprevalence studies aside from the ones in England, Italy and Spain? | 18:05 |
Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network *: ljl-covid: Add sources to seroprevalence table → https://is.gd/1j99ZG | 18:10 |
LjL | re-weighted (for sampling) prevalence of 6.0% [...] among people of Black or Asian (mainly South Asian) ethnicity (17.3% [15.8, 19.1] and 11.9%[11.0, 12.8]respectively) | 18:10 |
semitones | Have you heard the news that particles are carried up to ?16 ft? indoors? | 18:17 |
LjL | %wa 16 ft in meters | 18:18 |
Brainstorm | LjL, Wolfram|Alpha (convert 16 feet to meters): Result: 4.877 meters → https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=16+ft+in+meters | 18:18 |
LjL | semitones, those "up to" numbers seem all arbitrary to me. there's a persisting denial that it just stays airborne period, despite lots of things indicating it does | 18:18 |
LjL | in an indoors area with A/C i think it doesn't *matter* how far you are from someone infected | 18:19 |
LjL | you may be worse off if you're far than if you're near, depending on the specific locations and airflow | 18:19 |
Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Large study suggests convalescent plasma can help treat Covid-19, with caveats: Infusing hospitalized Covid-19 patients with blood plasma from people who recovered from the disease appeared to show a benefit in a nationwide study, but the study came with caveats. → https://is.gd/xjbsdJ | 18:20 |
semitones | i remember that theory points to the virus being able to stay in heavy particles and aerosols; they just weren't seeing evidence of (medical)"airborne" transmission a la measles. | 18:20 |
semitones | heavy particles as well as aerosols | 18:20 |
semitones | that doesn't mean it isn't happening though -- maybe it takes more exposure than measles does | 18:21 |
snake | %wa calories in an n95 mask | 18:26 |
LjL | snake, do you eat them after use? | 18:26 |
Brainstorm | snake, failed to get any hits! | 18:26 |
snake | LjL, they taste better than toilet paper | 18:26 |
LjL | lol | 18:26 |
snake | and all this hoarding means im out of food | 18:26 |
snake | jk | 18:26 |
snake | %wa earth diameter | 18:27 |
Brainstorm | snake, Wolfram|Alpha (Earth | average diameter): Result: 12742.018 km (kilometers) → https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=earth+diameter | 18:27 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +29512 cases (now 21.0 million), +513 deaths (now 755150) since 2 hours ago — Brazil: +10284 cases (now 3.2 million), +265 deaths (now 104528) since 17 hours ago — India: +7787 cases (now 2.4 million), +70 deaths (now 47542) since 2 hours ago — US: +7166 cases (now 5.4 million), +103 deaths (now 169284) since 2 hours ago | 18:36 |
Brainstorm | New from Ars Technica: Gaming & Culture: AMC theaters offers 15-cent tickets to get you in the door during pandemic → https://is.gd/nhqQ6y | 18:39 |
Jigsy | %cases UK | 18:42 |
Brainstorm | Jigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 313798 confirmed cases (0.5% of the population) and 46706 deaths (14.9% of cases) as of 11 hours ago. 18.3 million tests were performed (1.7% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 18:42 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: The True Coronavirus Toll in the U.S. Has Already Surpassed 200,000 (10287 votes) | https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/12/us/covid-deaths-us.html? | https://redd.it/i8u46m | 18:47 |
Brainstorm | New from Gazzetta Ufficiale italiana: MINISTERO DELLA SALUTE - ORDINANZA 12 agosto 2020: Ulteriori misure urgenti in materia di contenimento e gestionedell'emergenza epidemiologica da COVID-19. (20A04514) → https://is.gd/J5Fa2j | 18:49 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +29371 cases (now 21.0 million), +733 deaths (now 755883) since 17 minutes ago — India: +21932 cases (now 2.5 million), +575 deaths (now 48117) since 17 minutes ago — North Dakota, US: +201 cases (now 8171) since 23 hours ago — US: +6488 cases (now 5.4 million), +149 deaths (now 169433) since 17 minutes ago | 18:51 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: NCAA’s top medical officer says 'very narrow path' to restart sports → https://is.gd/cfjmfJ | 18:58 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Ethiopia: +1086 cases (now 26204), +16 deaths (now 479) since a day ago — World: +4132 cases (now 21.0 million), +133 deaths (now 756016) since 17 minutes ago — Chile: +1866 cases (now 380034), +94 deaths (now 10299) since a day ago — US: +814 cases (now 5.4 million), +23 deaths (now 169456) since 17 minutes ago | 19:06 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Turkey: +1243 cases (now 245635), +21 deaths (now 5912) since 22 hours ago — World: +1572 cases (now 21.0 million), +58 deaths (now 756074) since 18 minutes ago — Namibia: +138 cases (now 3544), +5 deaths (now 27) since 22 hours ago — US: +100 cases (now 5.4 million), +32 deaths (now 169488) since 18 minutes ago | 19:21 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Georgia high school with viral hallway photo reopens again after 35 students, teachers catch COVID → https://is.gd/GnHMZt | 19:27 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Iraq: +3841 cases (now 164277), +53 deaths (now 5641) since a day ago — World: +9857 cases (now 21.0 million), +144 deaths (now 756218) since 18 minutes ago — India: +2679 cases (now 2.5 million), +25 deaths (now 48142) since 47 minutes ago — US: +2515 cases (now 5.4 million), +58 deaths (now 169546) since 18 minutes ago | 19:36 |
Brainstorm | New from ProPublica: How We Analyzed Data on Nursing Home Outbreaks: by Hannah Fresques and Sean Campbell ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published. New Jersey’s long-term care population has been hard-hit by the pandemic. The novel coronavirus has [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/XUyHMY | 19:46 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Texas state Senator Seliger tests positive for coronavirus → https://is.gd/HYWdn2 | 19:56 |
ubLIX[m] | haven't been keeping my eye out for such studies, LjL, sorry | 20:03 |
LjL | ubLIX[m], uh well it's okay, i wasn't asking anyway, just giving information | 20:05 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: NCAA’s top medical officer says 'very narrow path' to restart sports → https://is.gd/cfjmfJ | 20:06 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Scientists say the coronavirus is at least as deadly as the 1918 flu pandemic: The coronavirus is at least as deadly as the 1918 flu pandemic and the death toll could even be worse if world leaders and public health officials fail to adequately contain it, researchers say. → https://is.gd/a55nvw | 20:35 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): WHO says there's 'no evidence' the coronavirus is being transmitted by food → https://is.gd/tQ1BLt | 20:44 |
LjL | the WHO is great at saying what there's no evidence of | 20:47 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: NCAA’s top medical officer says 'very narrow path' to restart sports → https://is.gd/cfjmfJ | 20:54 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Dr. Fauci on U.S. coronavirus outbreak: 'I'm not pleased with how things are going': U.S. public health officials are beginning to see a "disturbing" uptick in the rate of coronavirus tests that come back positive in some regions of the nation, Fauci said. → https://is.gd/fm59qG | 21:04 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Coronavirus live updates: Georgia withdraws lawsuit against Atlanta mask mandate: The coronavirus has infected more than 20.6 million people around the world as of Thursday, killing at least 750,400 people. → https://is.gd/cfjmfJ | 21:14 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Michigan, US: +1167 cases (now 99856), +16 deaths (now 6555) since 23 hours ago — World: +16609 cases (now 21.0 million), +342 deaths (now 756560) since an hour ago — US: +11620 cases (now 5.4 million), +259 deaths (now 169805) since an hour ago — Spain: +2935 cases (now 379799), +26 deaths (now 28605) since 14 hours ago | 21:21 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Aruba: +96 cases (now 894), +1 deaths (now 4) since a day ago — World: +399 cases (now 21.1 million), +5 deaths (now 756565) since 18 minutes ago — Uzbekistan: +230 cases (now 33323), +1 deaths (now 216) since 6 hours ago — Iowa, US: +40 cases (now 50337), +1 deaths (now 957) since 2 hours ago | 21:36 |
semitones | %wa base-pairs in Sars-CoV-2 | 21:41 |
Brainstorm | semitones, failed to get any hits! | 21:42 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Effects of universal masking on Massachusetts healthcare workers' COVID-19 incidence (84 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.09.20171173v1?rss=1%22 | https://redd.it/i8x0lo | 21:42 |
Brainstorm | New from Ars Technica: Science: New Zealand baffled by new COVID-19 cases, eyes frozen-food packaging → https://is.gd/xKRPeb | 22:02 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Costa Rica: +1072 cases (now 26129), +9 deaths (now 272) since 23 hours ago — World: +5295 cases (now 21.1 million), +60 deaths (now 756625) since 34 minutes ago — Lima, Peru: +3584 cases (now 250708), +84 deaths (now 10183) since a day ago — US: +3350 cases (now 5.4 million), +42 deaths (now 169848) since 34 minutes ago | 22:06 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Major Antibody Study Finds 3.4 Million in England Had Covid-19 (10120 votes) | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-13/mass-antibody-study-finds-3-4-million-in-england-had-covid-19 | https://redd.it/i8wr5o | 22:18 |
LjL | semitones, around 30k bases | 22:19 |
Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Listen: Pharma’s lobbying dollars, Alnylam’s future, and diversity in Covid-19 studies: Is pharma scared of Kamala Harris? Are there second acts in biotech? And why aren't Covid-19 clinical trials enrolling diverse participants? Find out on the latest episode of "The Readout… → https://is.gd/cFwQIA | 22:21 |
iz | Woe 75 | 22:27 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Coronavirus live updates: Georgia withdraws lawsuit over Atlanta mask mandate: The coronavirus has infected more than 20.6 million people around the world as of Thursday, killing at least 750,400 people. → https://is.gd/cfjmfJ | 22:50 |
de-facto | %cases Mexico | 23:05 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: In Mexico, there have been 498380 confirmed cases (0.4% of the population) and 54666 deaths (11.0% of cases) as of 19 hours ago. 1.1 million tests were performed (44.2% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Mexico for time series data. | 23:05 |
de-facto | hmm 72.5% of tests are positive now in Mexico: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoothed?tab=chart&country=~MEX | 23:06 |
de-facto | so if they just would hand out positive results without performing RT-PCR tests they still would be correct for the majority of tests, how crazy is that? | 23:07 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Trump administration official says some call Putin's coronavirus vaccine 'Russian roulette' → https://is.gd/2FKqxv | 23:09 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Coronavirus live updates: Georgia withdraws lawsuit over Atlanta mask mandate: The coronavirus has infected more than 20.6 million people around the world as of Thursday, killing at least 750,400 people. → https://is.gd/cfjmfJ | 23:19 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +58564 cases (now 21.1 million), +1438 deaths (now 758063) since an hour ago — Brazil: +44118 cases (now 3.2 million), +935 deaths (now 105463) since 5 hours ago — US: +9329 cases (now 5.4 million), +240 deaths (now 170088) since an hour ago — Botswana: +148 cases (now 1214), +1 deaths (now 3) since 2 days ago | 23:36 |
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