libera/##covid-19/ Thursday, 2020-08-13

CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: Smash Mouth plays to packed crowds at Sturges Ralley: Not the sharpest tool in the shed (10018 votes) | https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/smash-mouth-singer-mocks-coronavirus-pandemic-packed-sturgis-motorcycle-rally-n1236409 | https://redd.it/i8dfzm00:11
Jigsy[22:40:26] <tinwhiskers> Hopefully from this we'll develop a better "if you're sick stay home" work ethos instead of "come to work sick or you're fired" ethos.00:20
JigsyI admire your optimism.00:20
BrainstormUpdates for World: +65657 cases (now 20.8 million), +1394 deaths (now 751866) since 2 hours ago — Brazil: +41676 cases (now 3.2 million), +780 deaths (now 104201) since 5 hours ago — Colombia: +12066 cases (now 422519), +362 deaths (now 13837) since a day ago — US: +9597 cases (now 5.4 million), +227 deaths (now 168888) since 2 hours ago00:22
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Pandemic relief negotiations at a standstill; U.S. case numbers warped by data gaps → https://is.gd/pU8kqk00:28
BrainstormUpdates for World: +4769 cases (now 20.8 million), +168 deaths (now 752034) since 33 minutes ago — Ecuador: +1547 cases (now 97110), +33 deaths (now 5984) since a day ago — US: +1562 cases (now 5.4 million), +68 deaths (now 168956) since 33 minutes ago — Panama: +913 cases (now 77377), +23 deaths (now 1703) since 21 hours ago00:52
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Research exposes new vulnerability in SARS-CoV-2 (82 votes) | https://news.northwestern.edu/stories/2020/08/research-exposes-new-vulnerability-in-sars-cov-2/ | https://redd.it/i8dyf301:11
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Accuracy of U.S. coronavirus data thrown into question as decline in testing skews drop in new cases → https://is.gd/rytXC601:17
LjLcolor me surprised01:18
de-factolol01:24
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: It's now a felony in Illinois to assault a retail worker who is enforcing face mask rules → https://is.gd/XI6hc201:36
LjLit's been "now" a felony for like the past four days, Brainstorm01:36
BrainstormUpdates for Argentina: +7663 cases (now 268574), +125 deaths (now 5213) since 9 hours ago — World: +17293 cases (now 20.9 million), +281 deaths (now 752315) since 48 minutes ago — Brazil: +5689 cases (now 3.2 million), +62 deaths (now 104263) since an hour ago — US: +1996 cases (now 5.4 million), +43 deaths (now 168999) since 48 minutes ago01:37
darsieI was kicked out of a supermarket where I used a tape measure to keep 1 m distance to others as required.01:38
darsieBy mall security.01:39
LjLi don't think they *require* you to use a pointy instrument towards other people01:39
LjLin fact i am not surprised they failed to allow it01:39
darsieIt's not pointy. It has a 90 degree angle at the end.01:40
darsieAnd everyone should stay 1 m distant from me, anyways, so there shouldn't be a problem.01:41
darsieThose people who come too close endanger our lives.01:41
darsieMine, theirs, and many others.01:42
de-factohence wear a mask01:42
darsieThat's another rule.01:43
de-factoget a proper FFP3 mask if you want to be absolutely sure01:44
darsieThat's the horribly pointy tape measure: https://images.obi.de/product/AT/1500x1500/767622_1.jpg01:44
de-factolol01:44
LjLyes, those have sharp edges and i'm *utterly* unsurprised that you'd be kicked out from the supermarket welding such a thing around extended01:44
LjLyou must be one of those people who take things to a literal extreme. that doesn't always work out well in society.01:44
LjLif you had cut someone with the edge of that thing, you'd be in a lawsuit with potentially a lot of money to pay and a huge amount of hassles01:45
LjLi think it was an irresponsible "stunt", although maybe you don't view it like a stunt at all01:45
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Kamala Harris blames Trump for severity of U.S. coronavirus outbreak: He failed to take it 'seriously from the start' → https://is.gd/Ym2SAp01:45
de-factoi think it probably was comically funny, almost like Sheldon Cooper :))01:46
darsieHanding out paper is probably as dangerous.01:47
de-factoand btw its 1.5m :)01:47
darsiePaper has sharpe edges, too.01:47
darsieIt's 1 m in Austria.01:47
de-factooh Austria i thought you are from Germany (obi.de)01:47
darsieAnd most people underestimate 1 m.01:47
LjLde-facto, it might have been comically funny too but while maybe i'm just not a very fun person, i suspect most store mall security also aren't01:48
de-factoyeah just make it 1.5-2m and wear a proper mask, much more relaxing :)01:48
de-factoimagining it just reminded me of the series The Big Bang Theory with that pedantic Sheldon Cooper01:49
LjLFFP3 are ridiculously expensive here now (if they can be found at all); FFP2 are also expensive, and most of the time they are KN95, which were shown to be, in about half of cases, practically fake (not very effective at all); if i were to settle for "just" surgical masks, well, i don't know what a surgical mask is anymore since after the government created 50 cent price-capped "surgical" masks that any company is allowed to make (i just found them from a 01:50
LjLcompany normally making bedsheets), i have no idea what i should actually buy for something not of a completely unknown standard01:50
darsieThe edge may be a bit sharp, but the tape bends very easily when pushed, so it's really a very low risk compared to death or long term organ damag.01:50
de-factoi just bought some proper FFP3 for 7.7€ each01:50
de-factoFFP2 was like 5.6€ or such each01:51
LjLde-facto, it's a lot of money for something that you can't even safely re-use by spraying some alcohol on it01:51
darsieIt's not like I'm slashing around with an axe.01:51
LjLdarsie, well if you were, you wouldn't have been escorted out, you'd have been arrested01:51
darsieIf you were slashirg around wiht an axe you'd have been arrested, too.01:52
darsieBut we didn't do that.01:53
darsieSo why say this?01:53
LjLuhm, yes, i would've, that's entirely my point.01:53
LjLbecause you used "<22darsie18> It's not like I'm slashing around with an axe." as a sort of excuse for what you did01:53
LjLthere is a proportionate response01:53
LjLescorting you out was proportionate to you doing something that only a dumbass would do01:53
darsieI'm pretty annoyed that people don't keep distant.01:54
darsieAnd they don't get escorted out.01:54
darsieIf it's no big deal, then don't make it the law.01:54
de-factojust think about the reasoning behind it and try to align your actions with that01:56
darsieAnother supermarket suggested in an announcement to keep one baby elephant or one arms length distance. When I used my arm as measure, some guy aggressively asked me if I'm crazy.01:57
LjLdid you touch that guy01:58
darsieno01:58
LjLthen perhaps he should have asked non-aggressively ;)01:58
darsieAre you crazy?01:59
LjLarguably01:59
LjLi have a question too, it's really to understand. are you autistic, or somewhere on the spectrum?01:59
EricGrahamMacEac!cases USA01:59
darsieidk02:00
LjLbecause hearing that you should "keep one arm's length" and interpreting that as actually holding out your arm to people02:00
EricGrahamMacEac#cases USA02:00
CovBotIn United States there have been a total of 5,356,843 cases as of 2020-08-12 23:33:00 UTC. Of these 2,385,485 (44.5%) are still sick or may have recovered without being recorded, 2,802,359 (52.3%) have definitely recovered and 168,999 (3.2%) have died.02:00
LjLthat's something probably pretty innocuous, but that i can only imagine a person with some "literal interpretation issues" (autism spectrum comes with those) to do02:00
de-factothere is something like the personal space (physically) around people for which invasion (even without touching) will be seen as aggressive gesture by most people, does not really matter if with measuring tape or arms length or whatever02:02
darsieLots of people invade that space in the supermarket.02:03
EricGrahamMacEacde-facto: LjL darsie 02:03
de-factoLMAO02:04
darsieI'm not in the mood for laughing.02:04
darsieI hope lots of idiots die from cv.02:05
de-factocome on relax, noone deserves to die from it.02:07
Goombaydarsie: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/laurenstrapagiel/north-paulding-high-school-suspensions-for-hallway-photos02:13
Goombayscience deniers + fox news = kill others 02:14
de-factohere they have tape marks at the floor of supermarkets so people can en-queue with the required 1.5 m distance, its not strictly enforced though but they do strictly enforce wearing of masks indoors in the supermarkets and some also require mandatory usage of shopping venture to ensure that only a limited amount of people can enter the store (depending on the floor area)02:16
de-factosome of them even provide hand sanitizers at the entrance which is pretty neat 02:17
de-factoi am not sure if they already thought about air hygiene concepts, usually those stores dont have windows but some sort of air conditioners (which might either be good or bad, depending on their flow and filtering concepts)02:18
de-factoimho the importance of air hygiene is still underestimated in most places02:21
tinwhiskersyeah02:22
de-factofor (one extreme) example the spread via aerosol in that Tönnies slaughterhouse reached 8m and more with AC cooling air at 10°C falling onto the workers from above, so distance of 1m or 1.5m would not make a lot of difference in such scenarios when they are wearing masks hence "ballistic" droplets don't play a big role anymore02:27
tinwhiskersthe WHO (and therefore Fauci) still seem to say it's only a minor contributing factor and that droplets and surface contamination are still the major causes of transfer.02:27
tinwhiskersas usual, rather than just saying "As yet there is no good evidence that aerosols play an important part in the spread" they tend to word it in a way that suggests the are confident it does not play a significant part. Their wording has been pretty poor to date IMO.02:29
de-factoi think it depends strongly on the environment and circumstances, outdoors in sunny weather with wind it may not play a big role (e.g. at the beach or such), then people spitting at each others without masks or contact surface contamination may be the major infection paths, but if its indoors without much air exchange and people using their voice (loud environment, choir etc) or do physical demanding work (like those slaughterhouses) 02:30
de-factoaerosol may even be the main infection paths02:30
tinwhiskersyeah02:30
tinwhiskerstheir wording errs on the side of certainty rather than safety02:31
tinwhiskersgiven we have mounting evidence that aerosols may be important it would be prudent imo to have communication that says that rather than waiting until it's too late.02:32
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Sweden’s ‘herd immunity’ approach to COVID-19 → https://is.gd/aowDeT02:34
de-factotrue, because they know their statements will be seen as the last confirmation of something, that's probably why they are overly cautious which sometimes is not too helpful because it means unacceptable delays until something is rock solidly proven02:35
tinwhiskersWould it be so bad to simply say, "there is a growing body of evidence that suggests aerosol spread may be an important factor". I mean, that's technically correct and errs on the side of caution, which is really what we should be doing. "It is therefore recommended that people take precautions against aerosol spread in enclosed spaces, such as wearing masks".02:35
groto[m]can anyone shed light on why south africa is having fewer cases per day?02:35
de-factomaybe they should not wait but actively confirm it for themselves to speed up their recommendations02:36
de-factoarent they in lockdown there in SA?02:36
BrainstormUpdates for World: +3346 cases (now 20.9 million), +122 deaths (now 752437) since an hour ago — US: +3077 cases (now 5.4 million), +122 deaths (now 169121) since an hour ago — Guadeloupe: +50 cases (now 367) since 2 days ago — Fr. Polynesia: +43 cases (now 112) since 14 hours ago02:38
BrainstormUpdates for World: +3346 cases (now 20.9 million), +122 deaths (now 752437) since an hour ago — US: +3077 cases (now 5.4 million), +122 deaths (now 169121) since an hour ago — Guadeloupe: +50 cases (now 367) since 2 days ago — Fr. Polynesia: +43 cases (now 112) since 14 hours ago02:38
groto[m]<de-facto "arent they in lockdown there in "> let me check wiki02:38
de-factolooks like their daily new cases decline since July 20 or such02:38
groto[m]ctrl-f lockdown didn't find anything in july02:40
groto[m]Im looking at this page:02:41
groto[m]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_South_Africa02:41
tinwhiskersToday South Africa has announced they may ease lockdown restrictions - so they must be currently in lockdown.02:41
de-factocause and effect on cases are separated often by a multi-generation delay in the infection chains, so easily a month or such02:41
groto[m]Oh! i think they call it a state of disaster rather than lockdown02:41
tinwhiskersThey are currently in Level 3 lockdown and about to move to level 2.02:42
groto[m]source?02:42
tinwhiskers(whatever their levels mean)02:42
de-factoseen that too on titles with a quick google search02:42
tinwhiskersgoogle: south africa lockdown... but also wikipedia says they went into lockdown on March 2602:43
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Pandemic relief negotiations at a standstill; U.S. case numbers warped by data gaps → https://is.gd/pU8kqk02:43
groto[m]All the july stuff. 02:43
tinwhiskersEased to level 4 on 1 May, and down to level 3 on June 1.02:43
groto[m]---02:44
groto[m]surely they haven't been on lockdown since march 26? thats too long and the country already had to borrow money 02:44
tinwhiskerserr... ok02:44
groto[m]found some articles talking about easing lockdown thanks02:45
groto[m]there cases started declining a lot on july 24,02:46
groto[m]Covid19 still has the 2 week rule right? as in around july 10th, they must have done something to control cases?02:46
tinwhiskersoutbreaks tend to be noticed in about 2 weeks but the results of lockdown policies often take a bit longer than that to be noticed.02:48
tinwhiskersI mean, the positive effects tend to take longer than the negative effects.02:48
groto[m]yea SA 'state of disaster, prohibiting gatherings of more than 100 peop' 02:49
groto[m]so basically lockdown02:49
groto[m]makes sense02:49
de-facto%cases South Africa02:50
Brainstormde-facto: In South Africa, there have been 568919 confirmed cases (1.0% of the population) and 11010 deaths (1.9% of cases) as of 4 hours ago. 3.3 million tests were performed (17.3% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.1% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 2.5% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=South%20Africa for time series data.02:50
de-factohttp://offloop.net/covid19/?default=South%20Africa&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&miscType=Reff02:50
de-factowow 17.3% positive tests is almost an order of magnitude too high, should do more testing there02:51
de-factonot sure if that is a cumulative number though02:52
groto[m]found it! july 12 their lockdown level increased.02:52
groto[m]i doubt they could afford to test more02:52
groto[m]" In late July it was announced that South Africa would be taking out a R70 billion (US$4.3 billion) IMF loan[185] increasing the country's total debt to GDP ratio to 83%"02:52
de-factohmm https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoothed even says 23.3% positive tests there02:52
de-factowe really need much more, quicker and cheaper tests02:53
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: 'Archbishop' of Florida church selling bleach 'miracle cure' arrested with son (10253 votes) | https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/12/mark-grenon-archbishop-florida-church-selling-bleach-miracle-cure-arrested-son | https://redd.it/i8i1h402:54
tinwhiskersIt seems unlikely further restrictions on July 12 accounted for the immediate dropoff of cases starting on July 12. We must be seeing the effect of earlier measures there.02:54
de-factoeven if not as sensitive or specific, if cheap and available in large quantities such tests may help much more in catching the infectious window in time hence end more infection chains if used in wide spread regularly 02:55
groto[m]july 12, 'alcohol ban was reintroduced along with a new curfew from 21:00 until 4:00'02:57
groto[m]maybe alcohol makes covid easier to catch?02:57
tinwhiskersit makes people hug each other :-)02:57
groto[m]so maybe banning alc is the secret :p02:57
LjLhmmm alcohol02:57
LjLgood idea02:57
de-factobut only 98% ethanol :)02:58
de-factolol02:58
groto[m]any guesses on how  a night time curfew would help?02:58
tinwhiskerspeople stay at home more02:59
de-factono partying which is a major infection vector according to those superspread events02:59
de-factoe.g. apres-ski parties, carnival, night-clubs etc pp02:59
groto[m]i assumed banning alc would shut down most parties/clubs, but maybe the SAfrican's know how to party without?03:00
groto[m]i'm very impressed by how they managed to lower their new cases, did not think they would have been able to pull it off03:01
de-factoalso meeting at the bar indoors and forgetting about distancing by getting drunk or shouting at each others because the music is too loud would be a problem i guess03:02
groto[m]reddit's r/china_flu has a lot of conspiracy theories about why usa has managed to lower their new cases. r/coronavirus hasn't really talked about it much. 03:03
de-factoso them having a night time curfew would strongly suppress the probability of all such scenarios03:03
groto[m]true about curfews, should help at least03:03
groto[m]any ideas about how usa managed to lower their new cases?03:03
de-factohmm, Trump once mentioned that testing and finding cases would correlate03:04
darsiegn03:04
groto[m]darsie: gn03:05
de-factogn803:05
groto[m]yea trump said that during that axios interview03:06
LjLde-facto, well i had in mind more an alcohol-based beverage03:06
LjLi'm not sure 98% ethanol is something i can bear03:06
groto[m]LjL: how did italy manage to avoid a 'significant' 2nd wave?03:06
LjLgroto[m], it didn't03:07
LjLwe are having a second wave03:07
de-factoidk i really do hope USA found something to lower the real number of their cases, but tbh since the data was taken away from CDC I have difficulties estimating the trustworthiness of the data03:07
LjLit's not yet "significant" in the sense that it's not *obvious* on the graph yet03:07
LjLbut just give it a little time, it's brewing03:07
LjLwe got it first the first time, we can get it last the second time03:07
groto[m]de-facto: yea thats r/china_flu's theories too. the data is returned to teh cdc i thnink03:08
LjLgroto[m], just think, we had stabilized around 150-250 cases a day, while today we've had 481, and it's not the first time. a doubling is significant.03:08
groto[m]LjL: hmm okay03:08
LjLgroto[m], even more significantly, we had stabilized around 0.50-0.60% of tests turning out positive, while now we're around 1% or in excess of it03:08
groto[m]LjL: oh i see it! the graph has to be zoomed in03:08
LjLunfortunately for me, today Lombardy had a ton of cases again03:09
LjLin the past few days i could secretly hope it would just turn bad for the *rest* of italy03:09
LjLand leave us alone this time03:09
LjLbut i guess not03:10
LjLgroto[m], you can also see it in this view: https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy&cumulative=no&smooth=yes03:10
groto[m]i heard even areas that were ravaged didn't get significant herd immunity03:10
LjLnon-cumulative cases, smoothed a bit03:10
LjLgroto[m], yeah according to the state's seroprevalence survay, Lombardy had 7.5% as a whole, while one of the worst-hit municipalities is 24%03:11
LjLeven 24% is probably not enough for significant herd immunity03:11
LjLnevermind 7.5%, or the nationwide 2.5%03:11
LjLthere was a lot of wishful thinking, "it'll go away in the summer", "we've probably already developed herd immunity without realizing", that always got on my nerves03:11
groto[m]<LjL "non-cumulative cases, smoothed a"> huh cool, roughly how does smooth work?03:11
LjL(not just in italy, to be fair)03:11
LjLgroto[m], you should ask tinwhiskers for the specific, but i believe it's basically a moving average03:12
LjLyou take a window of more than one value, and average over that window03:12
LjLyou do that for each point in the graph03:12
LjLthe larger you make the window, the smoother it'll look03:12
groto[m]<LjL "groto, you should ask tinwhisker"> makes sense03:13
LjLwithout smoothing, things look too confusing due to the effects of weekly variation03:13
groto[m]natural herd immunity sounds, like, impossible03:13
LjLwe always have the least testing on monday, and the most on thursday03:13
LjLgroto[m], oh well it might be possible if immunity is long-lasting (i think that's still an open question, i wouldn't just take for granted it's short), but it would cost *many* lives...03:13
LjLit's already been many lives, so i mean MANY lives03:14
groto[m]vaccine in ~4 months hopefully03:15
LjLeh03:15
LjLmaybe, for a select few03:15
LjLi probably wouldn't take the one that's available in 4 months even if i were offered it (and i doubt i would be)03:15
LjLbut if they do make it, and they select the few well, it will help03:16
groto[m]<LjL "i probably wouldn't take the one"> Even if's it Not a live-weakened-coronavirus vaccine? why?03:17
de-factobtw since most countries have weekly periodicity in their data, would it make sense to compare to same days of previous weeks? e.g. Monday with Monday n weeks ago n=1,2,3,... same for Tuesday etc03:17
groto[m]tru03:17
LjLgroto[m], there are many things that could go wrong in a vaccine, not just the virus becoming non-weakened again... side effects need to be studies, and with over vaccines, there was like 20 years to study them. in this case, there's barely months to study them. there could be serious side effect that arise only later03:18
tinwhiskersgroto[m]: the moving average is a 7 day centered moving average, except at end of the data where there is less than 3 days of data either side of the center point, where it drops to a 5, 3, then 1 day average. I'm not very happy with it tbh.03:18
LjLif i were a person at high risk of very serious disease, i would make a different assessment03:18
LjLtinwhiskers, yeah the rightmost side always looks a little wonky03:18
LjLwhich i believe is the mathematical term for it03:19
groto[m]de-facto: i was looking through american coronavirus subreddits, the news hasn't picked up like NY. which looks like 2 possibilities: 03:19
groto[m]- the cases actually are decreasing03:19
groto[m]- it doesn't sell papers anymore to report on overflowing hospitals03:19
tinwhiskersyeah, but doing a trailing 7 day moving average seems even worse so I'm torn.03:19
tinwhiskersyes, I think wonky is the right term03:19
LjLde-facto, yeah maybe it would make sense, but i kind of just look at the percentage of positive tests instead03:19
groto[m]tinwhiskers: thxs for your work!03:20
de-factogroto[m], i think i remember reading something like testings dropped more than cases for USA, but not sure about the source03:20
tinwhiskersyou're welcome03:20
groto[m]LjL: risk assessment, makes sense03:20
LjLtinwhiskers, if your window is n long, then make a n/2 long linear projection of what the data is going to be based on the previous n/2, and use that to average on, as if you actually had the future data03:21
LjLtoo shady?03:21
groto[m]de-facto: i saw that when trump/cdc/hhss (or whatever it's called) switched systems, some hospitals in like texas stopped reporting bc they had trouble switching to a new system03:22
tinwhiskerseveryone else seems to do a trailing 7 day moving average03:22
tinwhiskersdoing a bit of forecasting doesn't seem like a terrible idea though03:22
de-factotinwhiskers, what would happen if you would do an extrapolation (e.g fit a polynom into the future, easiest would be constant, linear, ... etc) into the future (e.g. estimate cases which did not occur yet) and take that for doing the sliding average until center point reached "today"?03:23
groto[m]tinwhiskers: also maybe add a section on the website saying how the calculation works03:23
tinwhiskersI think that's what LjL is suggesting03:23
de-factogroto[m], yeah the decline in daily new cases and the switch in data occurred at similar dates03:24
LjLtinwhiskers, i guess (even shadier?) you could transition from moving to trailing over the last 7 days. weighted average of the two, err, averages, where it starts with 100% centered, 0% trailing, and ends with 0% centered, 100% trailing03:24
LjLwell i was suggesting just a linear fit, not a polynomial which seems overkill and perhaps too sensitive, but yes03:24
tinwhiskerswell, it's the right-hand side that is worst affected by the trailing moving average as well.03:24
de-factotinwhiskers, yep03:24
LjLtinwhiskers, hm03:24
tinwhiskerswhen cases are rising it underestimates the current situation03:24
LjLyou're right03:24
tinwhiskerssince most people where interested in "what's happening today" I didn't like it doing that. 03:25
de-factotinwhiskers, easiest woudl be just to repeat the latest value (e.g. constant), more accurate would be a linear interpolation (e.g. linear trend), even more accurate would be a quadratic term etc03:26
LjLi disagree that the higher you make the degree, the "more accurate" it gets03:26
LjLhigher-degree polynomials become progressively more sensitive to noise03:26
LjLyou may end up with something quite extreme03:26
tinwhiskersyeah03:26
LjLwe're talking about a short window (7 points) of shoddy data03:26
LjLi'd do linear03:27
LjLwell, actually 7/2 points03:27
LjLfor some value of 7/203:27
de-factodoing quadratic or even exponential extrapolation probably is overkill, constant or linear (regression) probably would completely suffice for getting rid of the end kinks in smoothing03:27
tinwhiskersI fiddled with a few options (no extrapolation though) and settled on that system as the least terrible.03:27
LjLde-facto, constant would still underestimate any major increase, which tinwhiskers seems to be concerned about (and i can see the concern)03:28
de-factoLjL, yes i agree03:28
groto[m]yall heard the conspiracy that bolsonaro nvr got corona and pretended to get it to boost his 'just a flu' message?03:28
LjLtinwhiskers, anyway, any refinements would be welcome but right now there are data for some countries (even on the non-Covidly dataset) that are just completely absolutely terrible (*cough*Spain). i wish something could be done about that. is there not a source that isn't crap...03:29
LjLgroto[m], no, but i thought about it for like an entire minute once03:29
LjLhe sure seems to have been better off than Boris Johnson03:29
LjLbut then again, sometimes it *is* mild03:29
LjLso i don't feel i have a concrete reason to call conspiracy03:29
tinwhiskersthere could be some better sources around now, but motivation hasn't been plentiful.03:29
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Obesity and Mortality Among Patients Diagnosed With COVID-19: Results From an Integrated Health Care Organization (82 votes) | https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-3742#f1-M203742 | https://redd.it/i8l50x03:30
tinwhiskersif anyone knows of a better data source I'd be willing to take a look though.03:30
LjLtinwhiskers, that's understandable. but i guess if you were feeling motivated at some point, using a better source should probably have priority over refining the moving average03:30
groto[m]<LjL "so i don't feel i have a concret"> same, i need more evidence of him faking it03:30
tinwhiskersIt's basically Johns Hopkins (with some additions for Italy, Canada, US states) vs. covidly at present.03:31
LjLtinwhiskers, my understanding from something i read (some tracker website, most probably, but i forget) is that the "only" sources are ultimately WHO which is shoddy (surprise!), ECDC, JHU and... just scraping Wikipedia03:31
tinwhiskersheh03:31
groto[m]is brazil reporting cases accurately again?03:32
de-factoi think google does scraping wikipedia too03:32
LjLyes, they do03:32
groto[m]de-facto: yea it does03:32
LjLthey know how to leverage other people's hard work ;)03:32
LjLthey know it best!03:32
LjLthat's a cheap shot though, there's nothing wrong with them doing it. although it would be nice if they provided a CSV or something.03:33
LjLproblem is... Covidly also gets data from Wikipedia, and Covidly data currently *suck horrendously*. so i'm not sure that's a good solution at present03:33
LjLtinwhiskers, fwiw, i still think "grab all the sources (well at least those two), and just give whichever number is higher" is going to result in better graphs, since the number one artifact is data just staying the same for more than one day03:35
groto[m]spain mayyy not get a 2nd wave, their death rate is still temporarily under control03:35
LjLgroto[m], how can you say that? i'd say they're fully into their second wave. i'm not looking at the deaths, i'm just looking at the cases, but... well, with any luck, deaths will not only lag behind but even be kept under better control than last time. but still, the cases spiking is what gives you a "wave", no?03:36
LjLtoday they reported more than +3000 cases03:36
LjLthey were just above +1000 a few days ago03:36
LjLif they're not having a spike i don't know who'd be03:36
tinwhiskersLjL: you may be right. Early on when JHU had growing pains they had some pretty wild numbers and I shied away from doing that. It also made things like the world total not match very well. However, that may work quite well now.03:36
LjLtinwhiskers, you could apply some heuristics if you don't feel entirely comfortable. like for instance, you could use your "preferred" source (so currently JHU, i guess) except in cases where there's zero difference between one day and the next, in which case you'd fall over. or conversely, if delta_today > 2 * delta_yesterday, ignore.03:38
LjLfall over as in fall back03:39
groto[m]LjL: ok, yes it's definitely a 2nd wave, but: other countries have had big 2nd waves but small 2nd wave deaths. 03:39
groto[m]Ex usa not testing right for wave 1 and tons of ppl dying. But wave 2, more testing and less ppl dying (assuming trump administration isn't lying or whatnot)03:39
LjLbut then when i look at Spain, both of those sources are giving a graph with artifacts, so anyway... :\03:39
de-factohmm but would cases (or peaks) always show at the same date in two different datasets?03:40
de-factothey should, but do they?03:40
groto[m]so more accurately, spain mayyyy not get a big 2nd death wave. Unlikely tho03:40
LjLde-facto, mostly yeah03:40
LjLde-facto, sometimes they don't, but in those cases there's generally an issue with one of the data sources03:40
LjLnot saying that based on any particular knowledge, just from what i've seen in past data03:41
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Grandmother of Bolsonaro's Wife dies from Covid-19 → https://is.gd/K5P5gD03:41
LjLgroto[m], look, he's trying to show that yeah, old people may die, feh!03:41
de-factojust mentioning, because if you switch between datasets via algos it might be a cumulative effect especially with delayed periodicity or such03:42
groto[m]big being keyword03:42
LjLde-facto, well you could avoid cumulative effects by looking at the total instead of the delta, i guess03:43
groto[m]north korea doesn't have their data listed on offloop03:43
LjLno they don't. do they have them listed anywhere, though?03:44
groto[m]i wrongly assumed that when Nkorea announced they have cases, that they'd start reporting cases03:44
LjLheh03:45
LjLwell maybe they are *somewhere*... for whatever they're worth03:45
de-factopossibly, just mentioning it because it may be difficult to deal with various delays on different datasets03:45
groto[m]wow all the other dicitiorships i checked are reporting (some) data 03:46
LjLyes, NK is "special"03:46
groto[m]gn!03:46
LjLalthough documents were leaked from Iran showing they had 2x the cases and 3x the deaths03:46
LjL'night03:46
LjLsorry, 3x the cases and 2x the deaths03:47
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: China says chicken imported from Brazil tests positive for virus; relief talks at a standstill → https://is.gd/pU8kqk03:51
BrainstormUpdates for World: +8695 cases (now 20.9 million), +822 deaths (now 753259) since an hour ago — Mexico: +5858 cases (now 498380), +737 deaths (now 54666) since 20 hours ago — Bolivia: +1743 cases (now 95071), +66 deaths (now 3827) since 20 hours ago — New Zealand: +10 cases (now 1589) since 15 hours ago03:53
LjLtinwhiskers, look at Brainstorm doing its job, highlighting New Zealand even though the absolute number is low!03:58
LjL(probably a bug)03:58
LjL(i mean, not really, but i'm not proud of the "logic" i put in that :P)03:58
tinwhiskersheh04:00
LjLlarge = True if delta > min((old[entry]+10)*0.07, float(old.get('delta', 1500))) else False04:05
LjLi don't even really know what this means04:05
LjLand then04:05
LjLsortkey = sortkey or float(delta)*(50.0 if large else 1.0) + (float(delta)**1.5) / (float(old.get('delta', 1500))+1)04:05
LjLmight as well create a random generator of algebraic operations04:06
BrainstormUpdates for Peru: +8875 cases (now 498555), +212 deaths (now 21713) since 21 hours ago — World: +8875 cases (now 20.9 million), +212 deaths (now 753471) since 26 minutes ago04:08
LjL%wa population peru04:08
BrainstormLjL, Wolfram|Alpha (Peru | population): Result: 32.2 million people (world rank: 42nd) (2017 estimate) → https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=population+peru04:08
LjLyikes.04:08
BrainstormUpdates for Venezuela: +1150 cases (now 29088), +9 deaths (now 247) since a day ago — Paraguay: +499 cases (now 8018), +7 deaths (now 93) since 21 hours ago — World: +1903 cases (now 20.9 million) since 20 minutes ago — Honduras: +254 cases (now 48657), +18 deaths (now 1533) since 21 hours ago04:23
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: U.S. reports 1,485 coronavirus deaths in a single day → https://is.gd/6R5OWn04:48
BrainstormUpdates for Sint Maarten: +29 cases (now 248) since 18 hours ago — World: +1374 cases (now 20.9 million), +17 deaths (now 753445) since 36 minutes ago — Belgium: +639 cases (now 75647), +15 deaths (now 9900) since 21 hours ago — Kazakhstan: +517 cases (now 101372) since 21 hours ago04:53
BrainstormUpdates for Turks and Caicos: +17 cases (now 241) since 18 hours ago05:08
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: COVID-19 and Severe Obesity: A Big Problem? (82 votes) | https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-5677 | https://redd.it/i8m93005:24
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: For the 2nd day in a row, China reports a case in which someone who recovered from coronavirus months ago has tested positive for COVID-19. He's asymptomatic. This case is in Shanghai. → https://is.gd/uhBA6x05:27
the-westested positive how? that doesn't necessarily mean contagious05:29
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Fargo plant refuses to close after COVID-19 outbreak; infected employee dies → https://is.gd/Vg3Z1u05:36
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: Grocery workers say morale is at an all-time low: ‘They don’t even treat us like humans anymore’ (10291 votes) | https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/08/12/grocery-workers-coronavirus | https://redd.it/i8moge05:42
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express (Health): Fashion: An online fundraiser to help artisans affected by the pandemic → https://is.gd/kE8jty05:46
BrainstormNew from EurekAlert!: Insect diversity boosted by combination of crop diversity and semi-natural habitats: To enhance the number of beneficial insect species in agricultural land, preserving semi-natural habitats and promoting crop diversity are both needed, according to new research published in the British Ecological Society's Journal of Applied of Ecology. → https://is.gd/R2pVuk06:24
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Brussels makes face masks mandatory to stop virus spread → https://is.gd/f5U65s07:03
BrainstormUpdates for Assam, India: +4593 cases (now 68999), +6 deaths (now 161) since 23 hours ago — France: +4561 cases (now 230874) since 11 hours ago — Puducherry, India: +481 cases (now 6381), +5 deaths (now 96) since 23 hours ago — Norte de Santander, Colombia: +384 cases (now 5492), +25 deaths (now 298) since 23 hours ago07:08
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Bolivia’s solution to surging Covid-19 deaths: a mobile crematorium | World news → https://is.gd/j3ZsaS07:13
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Two Chinese Patients Test Positive Months After Virus Recovery → https://is.gd/qoZPO007:22
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Family tests positive for coronavirus in Whittier, Alaska, where most residents live in one big building → https://is.gd/V9xBPj07:32
BrainstormUpdates for Belize: +86 cases (now 296) since 17 hours ago — World: +982 cases (now 20.9 million), +5 deaths (now 753563) since 33 minutes ago — Israel: +403 cases (now 88554) since 7 hours ago — Kyrgyzstan: +310 cases (now 41069), +3 deaths (now 1487) since a day ago07:38
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: The True Coronavirus Toll in the U.S. Has Already Surpassed 200,000 → https://is.gd/cZMc9X07:51
BrainstormUpdates for World: +857 cases (now 20.9 million), +27 deaths (now 753590) since 36 minutes ago — India: +766 cases (now 2.4 million), +11 deaths (now 47149) since an hour ago — Bhutan: +12 cases (now 128) since an hour ago — Afghanistan: +79 cases (now 37424), +9 deaths (now 1363) since 21 hours ago08:08
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Covid-19 lockdown means 115 million Indian children risk malnutrition → https://is.gd/N9omIA08:21
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Why are some people protected from Covid-19 without having contracted the disease? → https://is.gd/RHpcWr08:30
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: ‘Not getting a flu vaccine is like not wearing a mask:’ What the upcoming flu season could look like → https://is.gd/RrClsi08:50
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: Philippine President Duterte may be injected with Russia's coronavirus vaccine by next May: Duterte had earlier this week volunteered to participate in trials for the Russian vaccine even as scientists and health experts questioned the safety and effectiveness of the drug. → https://is.gd/qbmEP108:59
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: San Quentin’s coronavirus outbreak shows why ‘herd immunity’ could mean disaster → https://is.gd/WhYUK209:09
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: China says chicken imported from Brazil tests positive for virus; relief talks at a standstill → https://is.gd/pU8kqk09:28
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Citing covid, terror threat, US urges its citizens to not travel to Pakistan → https://is.gd/JV6irt09:38
BrainstormUpdates for World: +2907 cases (now 20.9 million), +30 deaths (now 753620) since an hour ago — India: +2589 cases (now 2.4 million), +20 deaths (now 47169) since an hour ago — Hungary: +45 cases (now 4813), +2 deaths (now 607) since 23 hours ago — Armenia: +229 cases (now 41023), +3 deaths (now 809) since 23 hours ago09:39
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Quest for Covid-19 T cell blood test (80 votes) | https://www.cardiff.ac.uk/news/view/2425277-quest-for-covid-19-t-cell-blood-test | https://redd.it/i8mdr009:50
BrainstormNew from StatNews: The Trump administration haphazardly gave away millions of Covid-19 masks — to schools, broadcasters, and large corporations: Hundreds of millions of cloth face masks shipped to U.S. agencies, nonprofits, and private companies by the Trump administration appear to have been allocated in a haphazard fashion, according to… → https://is.gd/gg3iHt10:36
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Vaping linked to COVID-19 risk in teens and young adults (81 votes) | https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2020/08/vaping-linked-to-covid-19-risk-in-teens-and-young-adults.html | https://redd.it/i8rbhr10:38
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Opinion: Instead of lockdowns, teach people how to socialize safely in the time of coronavirus: The "abstinence only" approach to sex education doesn't work nearly as well as the "safe sex" approach. We need to apply similar logic to physical distancing during the Covid-19 pandemic. → https://is.gd/wB2VDG10:46
BrainstormUpdates for World: +12392 cases (now 20.9 million), +232 deaths (now 753852) since an hour ago — Russia: +5057 cases (now 907758), +124 deaths (now 15384) since a day ago — Philippines: +3777 cases (now 147526), +22 deaths (now 2426) since a day ago — Indonesia: +2098 cases (now 132816), +65 deaths (now 5968) since a day ago11:09
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Two Chinese patients test Covid positive months after virus recovery → https://is.gd/Y3LxuM11:34
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Major Antibody Study Finds 3.4 Million in England Had Covid-19 → https://is.gd/can7OA11:43
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Michelle Bolsonaro's grandmother has died of Covid-19 → https://is.gd/mWHtnv11:53
BrainstormNew from BMJ: National Pathology Exchange provides robust infrastructure to covid-19 response: Gill and colleagues raise valid points on why local authorities did not have access to data to detect localised outbreaks of covid-19.1 They also state, however, that “test results have been reaching... → https://is.gd/oiYJdo12:03
BrainstormNew from BMJ: Covid-19: Inadequate health and safety regulatory planning in the UK: Speed and local capacity in responding to the pandemic cluster was critical in Leicester.12 The city lockdown exposed inadequate national, regional, and local information, surveillance, and... → https://is.gd/cmUVmi12:12
BrainstormUpdates for Romania: +1454 cases (now 66631), +53 deaths (now 2860) since a day ago — World: +4621 cases (now 20.9 million), +98 deaths (now 753950) since an hour ago — Bangladesh: +2617 cases (now 269115), +44 deaths (now 3557) since a day ago — El Salvador: +349 cases (now 21993) since 4 hours ago12:24
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Routine operations in English hospitals down 67%: The coronavirus pandemic has caused backlogs in many areas of the NHS, including cancer and A&E. → https://is.gd/7jMbuS12:32
BrainstormNew from Scientific American: The 1918 Flu Faded in Our Collective Memory: We Might 'Forget' the Coronavirus, Too: Collage of various newspaper headlines related to the previous year's influenza pandemic, Chicago, Illinois, 1919. The image was originally published in 'A Report on an Epidemic of Influenza in the City of Chicago in the Fall of 1918' by [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/nja9b912:51
BrainstormUpdates for World: +3797 cases (now 20.9 million), +181 deaths (now 754131) since 43 minutes ago — Iran: +2625 cases (now 336324), +174 deaths (now 19162) since a day ago — Kuwait: +701 cases (now 74486) since 20 hours ago — Switzerland: +234 cases (now 37403) since a day ago12:54
BrainstormUpdates for World: +299 cases (now 20.9 million), +2 deaths (now 754133) since 30 minutes ago — United Arab Emirates: +277 cases (now 63489) since a day ago — Vietnam: +22 cases (now 905), +2 deaths (now 20) since 8 hours ago13:09
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: China says chicken imported from Brazil tests positive for virus; relief talks at a standstill → https://is.gd/pU8kqk13:20
BrainstormUpdates for World: +824 cases (now 20.9 million), +18 deaths (now 754151) since 31 minutes ago — Nepal: +525 cases (now 24957), +4 deaths (now 95) since a day ago — St. Martin: +8 cases (now 92) since a day ago — Germany: +25 cases (now 220884) since 6 hours ago13:24
semitonesChickens are catching it now? :(13:25
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Kamala Harris blames Trump for severity of U.S. coronavirus outbreak: He failed to take it 'seriously from the start' → https://is.gd/Ym2SAp13:29
BrainstormUpdates for World: +204 cases (now 20.9 million), +16 deaths (now 754167) since 35 minutes ago — Madagascar: +125 cases (now 13522), +6 deaths (now 162) since a day ago — Gambia: +79 cases (now 1556), +10 deaths (now 43) since 23 hours ago13:54
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express (Health): Life-style: Dia Mirza: This pandemic is an outcome of our broken relationship with nature → https://is.gd/FMHD3f14:08
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Major antibody home test study finds 6% of England COVID-19 infected → https://is.gd/hq4BAB14:18
BrainstormUpdates for World: +12657 cases (now 20.9 million), +124 deaths (now 754291) since 44 minutes ago — India: +11555 cases (now 2.4 million), +105 deaths (now 47274) since 5 hours ago — Croatia: +180 cases (now 6050), +1 deaths (now 161) since a day ago — Palestine: +307 cases (now 15491) since 14 hours ago14:25
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): China says chicken imported from Brazil tests positive for coronavirus; relief talks at a standstill → https://is.gd/pU8kqk14:27
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: 5 things to know before the stock market opens Thursday: The S&P 500 will attempt to reclaim its record high hit before the coronavirus pandemic. → https://is.gd/SywhZR14:37
disillusion%cases cuba14:58
Brainstormdisillusion: In Cuba, there have been 3128 confirmed cases (0.0% of the population) and 88 deaths (2.8% of cases) as of 12 hours ago. 309908 tests were performed (1.0% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Cuba for time series data.14:58
disillusion%cases vietnam15:00
Brainstormdisillusion: In Vietnam, there have been 905 confirmed cases (0.0% of the population) and 20 deaths (2.2% of cases) as of 2 hours ago. 621823 tests were performed (0.1% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Vietnam for time series data.15:00
BrainstormUpdates for Syria: +75 cases (now 1402) since a day ago — World: +3175 cases (now 20.9 million), +69 deaths (now 754360) since 46 minutes ago — Saudi Arabia: +1482 cases (now 294519), +34 deaths (now 3303) since 22 hours ago — US: +643 cases (now 5.4 million), +26 deaths (now 169161) since 2 hours ago15:05
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: U.S. records over 1,500 new deaths, for the deadliest day since May → https://is.gd/cfjmfJ15:06
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: COVID-19 study confirms low transmission in educational settings (83 votes) | https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/08/04/covid-19-study-confirms-low-transmission-in-educational-settings.html | https://redd.it/i8ebpy16:04
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: 5 things to know before the stock market opens Thursday: The S&P 500 will attempt to reclaim its record high hit before the coronavirus pandemic. → https://is.gd/SywhZR16:04
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: U.S. records over 1,500 new deaths, for the deadliest day since May → https://is.gd/cfjmfJ16:14
BrainstormUpdates for World: +18487 cases (now 21.0 million), +258 deaths (now 754618) since an hour ago — India: +15519 cases (now 2.4 million), +198 deaths (now 47472) since 2 hours ago — US: +1122 cases (now 5.4 million), +9 deaths (now 169170) since an hour ago — Maryland, US: +776 cases (now 98160), +8 deaths (now 3620) since 23 hours ago16:20
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Antibody prevalence for SARS-CoV-2 following the peak of the pandemic in England: REACT2 study in 100,000 adults (80 votes) | https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/institute-of-global-health-innovation/Ward-et-al-120820.pdf | https://redd.it/i8wt5n16:22
BrainstormUpdates for Trinidad and Tobago: +43 cases (now 369) since 15 hours ago — World: +1336 cases (now 21.0 million), +19 deaths (now 754637) since 18 minutes ago — Virginia, US: +1101 cases (now 103622), +11 deaths (now 2363) since a day ago — US: +1101 cases (now 5.4 million), +11 deaths (now 169181) since 18 minutes ago16:35
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Early Spread of COVID-19 Appears Far Greater Than Initially Reported (93 votes) | https://cns.utexas.edu/news/early-spread-of-covid-19-appears-far-greater-than-initially-reported | https://redd.it/i8zicd16:52
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: UK trials new Covid-19 smartphone app, includes Indian language versions → https://is.gd/n4SCbx16:52
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Americans receiving unemployment benefits drops; U.S. records over 1,500 new deaths → https://is.gd/cfjmfJ17:02
LjLubLIX[m], others: English seroprevalence survey shows 6% prevalence (2.5% in italy, 5% in spain) with the most in london at 13% (7.4% in Lombardy, >10% in Madrid / Central Spain), and 32% were asymptomatic (27% in italy, 32.7% in spain)17:18
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: Watch live: World Health Organization holds press conference on the coronavirus outbreak: World Health Organization officials are holding a press conference on Thursday to update the public on the coronavirus outbreak that has infected more than 20 million people across the globe. → https://is.gd/I7BT8517:21
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Americans receiving unemployment benefits drops; U.S. records over 1,500 new deaths → https://is.gd/cfjmfJ17:31
BrainstormNew from https://covid19.specops.network *: ljl-covid: Add initial version of seroprevalence comparison table → https://is.gd/kYBYkD17:41
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 — sustained after all? (80 votes) | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-00423-9 | https://redd.it/i8yiwl17:46
LjL↑ IgM became undetectable at around week 10–13. Importantly, although Spike-targeted IgG (IgG-S) declined over time, it remained detectable at relatively high levels until the end of the 6-month study period.17:49
BrainstormNew from https://covid19.specops.network *: ljl-covid: Add prevalence in health workers, and seroconversion among positive PCR → https://is.gd/xqRvlx17:51
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: NCAA’s top medical officer says “very narrow path” to restart sports → https://is.gd/cfjmfJ18:00
LjLdo you know of any large-scale (country-scale, or say >50k people up) seroprevalence studies aside from the ones in England, Italy and Spain?18:05
BrainstormNew from https://covid19.specops.network *: ljl-covid: Add sources to seroprevalence table → https://is.gd/1j99ZG18:10
LjLre-weighted (for sampling) prevalence of 6.0% [...] among people of Black or Asian (mainly South Asian) ethnicity (17.3% [15.8, 19.1] and 11.9%[11.0, 12.8]respectively)18:10
semitonesHave you heard the news that particles are carried up to ?16 ft? indoors?18:17
LjL%wa 16 ft in meters18:18
BrainstormLjL, Wolfram|Alpha (convert 16 feet to meters): Result: 4.877 meters → https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=16+ft+in+meters18:18
LjLsemitones, those "up to" numbers seem all arbitrary to me. there's a persisting denial that it just stays airborne period, despite lots of things indicating it does18:18
LjLin an indoors area with A/C i think it doesn't *matter* how far you are from someone infected18:19
LjLyou may be worse off if you're far than if you're near, depending on the specific locations and airflow18:19
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Large study suggests convalescent plasma can help treat Covid-19, with caveats: Infusing hospitalized Covid-19 patients with blood plasma from people who recovered from the disease appeared to show a benefit in a nationwide study, but the study came with caveats. → https://is.gd/xjbsdJ18:20
semitonesi remember that theory points to the virus being able to stay in heavy particles and aerosols; they just weren't seeing evidence of (medical)"airborne" transmission a la measles.18:20
semitonesheavy particles as well as aerosols18:20
semitonesthat doesn't mean it isn't happening though -- maybe it takes more exposure than measles does18:21
snake%wa calories in an n95 mask18:26
LjLsnake, do you eat them after use?18:26
Brainstormsnake, failed to get any hits! 18:26
snakeLjL, they taste better than toilet paper18:26
LjLlol18:26
snakeand all this hoarding means im out of food18:26
snakejk18:26
snake%wa earth diameter18:27
Brainstormsnake, Wolfram|Alpha (Earth | average diameter): Result: 12742.018 km (kilometers) → https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=earth+diameter18:27
BrainstormUpdates for World: +29512 cases (now 21.0 million), +513 deaths (now 755150) since 2 hours ago — Brazil: +10284 cases (now 3.2 million), +265 deaths (now 104528) since 17 hours ago — India: +7787 cases (now 2.4 million), +70 deaths (now 47542) since 2 hours ago — US: +7166 cases (now 5.4 million), +103 deaths (now 169284) since 2 hours ago18:36
BrainstormNew from Ars Technica: Gaming & Culture: AMC theaters offers 15-cent tickets to get you in the door during pandemic → https://is.gd/nhqQ6y18:39
Jigsy%cases UK18:42
BrainstormJigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 313798 confirmed cases (0.5% of the population) and 46706 deaths (14.9% of cases) as of 11 hours ago. 18.3 million tests were performed (1.7% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data.18:42
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: The True Coronavirus Toll in the U.S. Has Already Surpassed 200,000 (10287 votes) | https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/12/us/covid-deaths-us.html? | https://redd.it/i8u46m18:47
BrainstormNew from Gazzetta Ufficiale italiana: MINISTERO DELLA SALUTE - ORDINANZA 12 agosto 2020: Ulteriori misure  urgenti  in  materia  di  contenimento  e  gestionedell'emergenza epidemiologica da COVID-19. (20A04514) → https://is.gd/J5Fa2j18:49
BrainstormUpdates for World: +29371 cases (now 21.0 million), +733 deaths (now 755883) since 17 minutes ago — India: +21932 cases (now 2.5 million), +575 deaths (now 48117) since 17 minutes ago — North Dakota, US: +201 cases (now 8171) since 23 hours ago — US: +6488 cases (now 5.4 million), +149 deaths (now 169433) since 17 minutes ago18:51
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: NCAA’s top medical officer says 'very narrow path' to restart sports → https://is.gd/cfjmfJ18:58
BrainstormUpdates for Ethiopia: +1086 cases (now 26204), +16 deaths (now 479) since a day ago — World: +4132 cases (now 21.0 million), +133 deaths (now 756016) since 17 minutes ago — Chile: +1866 cases (now 380034), +94 deaths (now 10299) since a day ago — US: +814 cases (now 5.4 million), +23 deaths (now 169456) since 17 minutes ago19:06
BrainstormUpdates for Turkey: +1243 cases (now 245635), +21 deaths (now 5912) since 22 hours ago — World: +1572 cases (now 21.0 million), +58 deaths (now 756074) since 18 minutes ago — Namibia: +138 cases (now 3544), +5 deaths (now 27) since 22 hours ago — US: +100 cases (now 5.4 million), +32 deaths (now 169488) since 18 minutes ago19:21
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Georgia high school with viral hallway photo reopens again after 35 students, teachers catch COVID → https://is.gd/GnHMZt19:27
BrainstormUpdates for Iraq: +3841 cases (now 164277), +53 deaths (now 5641) since a day ago — World: +9857 cases (now 21.0 million), +144 deaths (now 756218) since 18 minutes ago — India: +2679 cases (now 2.5 million), +25 deaths (now 48142) since 47 minutes ago — US: +2515 cases (now 5.4 million), +58 deaths (now 169546) since 18 minutes ago19:36
BrainstormNew from ProPublica: How We Analyzed Data on Nursing Home Outbreaks: by Hannah Fresques and Sean Campbell ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published. New Jersey’s long-term care population has been hard-hit by the pandemic. The novel coronavirus has [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/XUyHMY19:46
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Texas state Senator Seliger tests positive for coronavirus → https://is.gd/HYWdn219:56
ubLIX[m]haven't been keeping my eye out for such studies, LjL, sorry20:03
LjLubLIX[m], uh well it's okay, i wasn't asking anyway, just giving information20:05
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: NCAA’s top medical officer says 'very narrow path' to restart sports → https://is.gd/cfjmfJ20:06
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: Scientists say the coronavirus is at least as deadly as the 1918 flu pandemic: The coronavirus is at least as deadly as the 1918 flu pandemic and the death toll could even be worse if world leaders and public health officials fail to adequately contain it, researchers say. → https://is.gd/a55nvw20:35
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): WHO says there's 'no evidence' the coronavirus is being transmitted by food → https://is.gd/tQ1BLt20:44
LjLthe WHO is great at saying what there's no evidence of20:47
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: NCAA’s top medical officer says 'very narrow path' to restart sports → https://is.gd/cfjmfJ20:54
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: Dr. Fauci on U.S. coronavirus outbreak: 'I'm not pleased with how things are going': U.S. public health officials are beginning to see a "disturbing" uptick in the rate of coronavirus tests that come back positive in some regions of the nation, Fauci said. → https://is.gd/fm59qG21:04
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: Coronavirus live updates: Georgia withdraws lawsuit against Atlanta mask mandate: The coronavirus has infected more than 20.6 million people around the world as of Thursday, killing at least 750,400 people. → https://is.gd/cfjmfJ21:14
BrainstormUpdates for Michigan, US: +1167 cases (now 99856), +16 deaths (now 6555) since 23 hours ago — World: +16609 cases (now 21.0 million), +342 deaths (now 756560) since an hour ago — US: +11620 cases (now 5.4 million), +259 deaths (now 169805) since an hour ago — Spain: +2935 cases (now 379799), +26 deaths (now 28605) since 14 hours ago21:21
BrainstormUpdates for Aruba: +96 cases (now 894), +1 deaths (now 4) since a day ago — World: +399 cases (now 21.1 million), +5 deaths (now 756565) since 18 minutes ago — Uzbekistan: +230 cases (now 33323), +1 deaths (now 216) since 6 hours ago — Iowa, US: +40 cases (now 50337), +1 deaths (now 957) since 2 hours ago21:36
semitones%wa base-pairs in Sars-CoV-221:41
Brainstormsemitones, failed to get any hits! 21:42
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Effects of universal masking on Massachusetts healthcare workers' COVID-19 incidence (84 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.09.20171173v1?rss=1%22 | https://redd.it/i8x0lo21:42
BrainstormNew from Ars Technica: Science: New Zealand baffled by new COVID-19 cases, eyes frozen-food packaging → https://is.gd/xKRPeb22:02
BrainstormUpdates for Costa Rica: +1072 cases (now 26129), +9 deaths (now 272) since 23 hours ago — World: +5295 cases (now 21.1 million), +60 deaths (now 756625) since 34 minutes ago — Lima, Peru: +3584 cases (now 250708), +84 deaths (now 10183) since a day ago — US: +3350 cases (now 5.4 million), +42 deaths (now 169848) since 34 minutes ago22:06
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: Major Antibody Study Finds 3.4 Million in England Had Covid-19 (10120 votes) | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-13/mass-antibody-study-finds-3-4-million-in-england-had-covid-19 | https://redd.it/i8wr5o22:18
LjLsemitones, around 30k bases22:19
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Listen: Pharma’s lobbying dollars, Alnylam’s future, and diversity in Covid-19 studies: Is pharma scared of Kamala Harris? Are there second acts in biotech? And why aren't Covid-19 clinical trials enrolling diverse participants? Find out on the latest episode of "The Readout… → https://is.gd/cFwQIA22:21
izWoe 7522:27
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: Coronavirus live updates: Georgia withdraws lawsuit over Atlanta mask mandate: The coronavirus has infected more than 20.6 million people around the world as of Thursday, killing at least 750,400 people. → https://is.gd/cfjmfJ22:50
de-facto%cases Mexico23:05
Brainstormde-facto: In Mexico, there have been 498380 confirmed cases (0.4% of the population) and 54666 deaths (11.0% of cases) as of 19 hours ago. 1.1 million tests were performed (44.2% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Mexico for time series data.23:05
de-factohmm 72.5% of tests are positive now in Mexico: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoothed?tab=chart&country=~MEX23:06
de-factoso if they just would hand out positive results without performing RT-PCR tests they still would be correct for the majority of tests, how crazy is that?23:07
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Trump administration official says some call Putin's coronavirus vaccine 'Russian roulette' → https://is.gd/2FKqxv23:09
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: Coronavirus live updates: Georgia withdraws lawsuit over Atlanta mask mandate: The coronavirus has infected more than 20.6 million people around the world as of Thursday, killing at least 750,400 people. → https://is.gd/cfjmfJ23:19
BrainstormUpdates for World: +58564 cases (now 21.1 million), +1438 deaths (now 758063) since an hour ago — Brazil: +44118 cases (now 3.2 million), +935 deaths (now 105463) since 5 hours ago — US: +9329 cases (now 5.4 million), +240 deaths (now 170088) since an hour ago — Botswana: +148 cases (now 1214), +1 deaths (now 3) since 2 days ago23:36

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