Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Italy’s government is working on an agreement with Paris to impose COVID-19 testing on tourists and workers returning from France and is looking to do the same with Spain as cases are rising → https://is.gd/lzwZfH | 00:03 |
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Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Graphic: We've been tracking meatpacking plant outbreaks. Not all are accounted for. → https://is.gd/Lfkgav | 00:12 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Mass Protests Erupt as China Moves to End Mongolian-Medium Teaching in Schools → https://is.gd/7OydPs | 00:22 |
LjL | lovely | 00:26 |
LjL | not sure how related to covid and why it got posted, but China is sure... doing things in the background | 00:27 |
LjL | well now i know, it was because of "protests" containing "tests". it would probably be a good idea to add \b to a few of my random covid fishing matches | 00:28 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus*: Coronavirus: Poll finds a third of Americans think they handled COVID-19 better than Canada, and are also delusional → https://is.gd/r5Tc59 | 00:55 |
LjL | redundant | 01:01 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: White House suppressed coronavirus reports and downplayed virus, House panel says → https://is.gd/Uon0bi | 01:05 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Development of COVID-19 vaccine AZD1222 expands into US Phase III clinical trial across all adult age groups (87 votes) | https://www.astrazeneca-us.com/media/press-releases/2020/development-of-covid-19-vaccine-azd1222-expands-into-us-phase-iii-clinical-trial-across-all-adult-age-groups-08312020.html | https://redd.it/ik6g9d | 01:09 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation rises exponentially with age, inversely proportional to T-cell production (81 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.25.20181487v1 | https://redd.it/ik390w | 01:15 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Chinese coronavirus patient recovers after more than 100 days on controversial life support machine → https://is.gd/wuleiH | 01:24 |
LjL | the reddit thread makes it look controversial too | 01:26 |
Brainstorm | New from Ars Technica: Science: Trump advisor reportedly wants to let COVID-19 spread, repeat Sweden’s mistakes → https://is.gd/UcPK23 | 01:34 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: White House suppressed coronavirus reports and downplayed virus, House panel says: "The Task Force reports released today show the White House has known since June that coronavirus cases were surging across the country and many states were becoming dangerous 'red zones' where the virus was spreading fast," Rep. James Clyburn said. → https://is.gd/pNeaVw | 02:33 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +74250 cases (now 25.7 million), +1233 deaths (now 855408) since 4 hours ago — Brazil: +44744 cases (now 3.9 million), +539 deaths (now 121515) since 4 hours ago — Argentina: +9309 cases (now 417735), +162 deaths (now 8660) since 10 hours ago — US: +8613 cases (now 6.2 million), +138 deaths (now 187721) since 4 hours ago | 02:50 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Coronavirus cases are on the rise again across more than half of the U.S. → https://is.gd/KK797G | 03:22 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Large trials for the Oxford COVID-19 vaccine begin in the U.S. → https://is.gd/yGwCWI | 03:42 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +10176 cases (now 25.7 million), +450 deaths (now 855858) since an hour ago — Peru: +4871 cases (now 652037), +156 deaths (now 28944) since a day ago — Mexico: +3719 cases (now 599560), +256 deaths (now 64414) since 11 hours ago — New Zealand: +14 cases (now 1752) since 11 hours ago | 03:51 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: CDC has not reduced the death count related to COVID-19 | Some widely shared social media posts suggest the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention “backpedaled” on the number of deaths caused by COVID-19, but an AP Fact Check finds that’s not true → https://is.gd/rG4qZH | 03:52 |
Darkside1 | :-D | 04:16 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Peru now has the world's highest coronavirus death rate → https://is.gd/3kyHku | 04:31 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: White House suppressed coronavirus reports and downplayed virus, House panel says → https://is.gd/l15xUQ | 04:50 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Some Russian teachers fear back-to-school shots of 'Sputnik V' COVID vaccine → https://is.gd/bxSeKb | 05:20 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: New Zealand’s Largest City Exits Lockdown After Bringing Mystery COVID-19 Surge Under Control → https://is.gd/nL1kHM | 05:49 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +1899 cases (now 25.7 million), +78 deaths (now 855936) since 2 hours ago — Honduras: +840 cases (now 61014), +15 deaths (now 1873) since 13 hours ago — Bolivia: +630 cases (now 116598), +61 deaths (now 5027) since 13 hours ago — United Kingdom: +351 cases (now 336623) since 3 hours ago | 06:06 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: U.S. tops 6 million cases; WHO warns against prematurely approving a vaccine → https://is.gd/5aTB8I | 06:08 |
Brainstorm | New from EurekAlert!: Unravelling mother to baby transmission of Zika virus: Researchers have discovered that when a pregnant mother is infected by Zika virus, it can remain in the placenta for months, causing damage that can be dangerous to the fetus. These findings advance our understanding of mother to baby transmission and provide the groundwork [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/97cQnJ | 06:28 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Australian man caught in girlfriend’s cupboard after repeatedly breaching coronavirus quarantine gets SIX MONTHS behind bars → https://is.gd/uQ3QO4 | 06:48 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Trump’s tariffs? Coronavirus? China’s exports are surging anyway → https://is.gd/TCbskw | 06:58 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Alberta, Canada: +426 cases (now 13902), +2 deaths (now 239) since 3 days ago — World: +9851 cases (now 25.7 million), +42 deaths (now 855978) since an hour ago — India: +3227 cases (now 3.7 million) since 8 hours ago — France: +2855 cases (now 302175) since 11 hours ago | 07:06 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: White House suppressed coronavirus reports and downplayed virus, House panel says → https://is.gd/YFFP2R | 07:17 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Life-style: Tracks of time: Trekkers explore new paths during the COVID-19 crisis → https://is.gd/JOVGNo | 07:27 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Santa Catarina, Brazil: +30913 cases (now 177777), +25 deaths (now 2260) since 14 hours ago — Madrid, Spain: +7457 cases (now 126057) since 2 days ago — Jharkhand, India: +3221 cases (now 41656), +7 deaths (now 417) since 14 hours ago — Pais Vasco, Spain: +2429 cases (now 29763) since 2 days ago | 07:36 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Nearly 3 in 4 adults plan to get vaccinated against the coronavirus, global survey shows: China was the most enthusiastic country with 97% of respondents indicating they would be vaccinated, while Russia was the least willing with only 54% interested to do so. → https://is.gd/TKlsug | 07:56 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Past vaccine disasters show why rushing a coronavirus vaccine now would be 'colossally stupid' → https://is.gd/S5ILTz | 08:16 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: 'People have died unnecessarily.' Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt slams US government's coronavirus failure → https://is.gd/R5Ktug | 08:46 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: A common blood thinner drug has proved to be a lifesaver during COVID pandemic → https://is.gd/SFCuzD | 08:55 |
ap4lmtree | i cough some today, after going to ups, cleaning my trash can , and something. it might be dust in my hair, or maybe i got covid now | 09:03 |
ap4lmtree | like 20 seconds off and on | 09:03 |
ap4lmtree | then right now i cough like maybe 5 seconds | 09:03 |
ap4lmtree | like small cough | 09:03 |
ap4lmtree | not much of a cough at all | 09:03 |
ap4lmtree | like clear throat | 09:03 |
jacklsw | got contact with anybody? | 09:10 |
ap4lmtree | no | 09:11 |
jacklsw | probably just normal flu, go checkup if you are worried | 09:11 |
ap4lmtree | i walk in ups and then walk out | 09:11 |
ap4lmtree | i have a kn95 mask which is as good as n95 | 09:11 |
ap4lmtree | oh | 09:11 |
ap4lmtree | i remember now | 09:11 |
ap4lmtree | i dig deep hole to re-bury 3 fish cause i ddin't do it deep first itme | 09:12 |
ap4lmtree | so i guess i get dust in my hair , then i take shower, and maybe some in my nose still i guess | 09:12 |
ap4lmtree | so i no have covid , okay | 09:12 |
jacklsw | great then | 09:13 |
jacklsw | take some rests | 09:13 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Data clearly show the more serious trajectory of COVID-19 disease in people with obesity: Data presented at one of the opening sessions at this year's European and International Congress on Obesity (ECOICO 2020) held online this year (1-4 September) will show the clear relationship between obesity and the severity of COVID-19 [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/yDycxF | 09:44 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Unique antibody profile sets gluten sensitivity apart from celiac disease: A new study of the antibodies produced by people with gluten sensitivity may lead to a better way to detect the condition and treat it. → https://is.gd/KFvfaJ | 09:54 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Two men charged with planning Melbourne anti-lockdown protest → https://is.gd/XPS55v | 10:14 |
Brainstorm | New from Lombardia Provvedimenti: (news): Covid, assessore al Welfare: Malpensa hub leader per tamponi effettuati → https://is.gd/NPRthz | 10:24 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: People with less body response to stress task had more PTSD signs after COVID-19 began: People who did not have a large heart rate response to a stress task surprised researchers later—after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic—when they showed more symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder related to the crisis than others [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/W4TXkn | 10:34 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Bangladesh's COVID-19 testing criticised → https://is.gd/EXQ0D7 | 10:53 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Facing coronavirus crisis, Israel calls in army → https://is.gd/EuktKP | 11:03 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Russia’s virus cases exceed 1 million, globally 4th highest → https://is.gd/h85sAM | 11:23 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Hong Kong begins mass-testing for virus amid public doubts: Hong Kong tested thousands of people for coronavirus Tuesday at the start of a mass-testing effort that's become another political flash point in the semi-autonomous Chinese territory. → https://is.gd/jwaHOK | 11:33 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: European children back to school amidst virus fears: French pupils go back to school Tuesday as schools across Europe open their doors to greet returning pupils this month, nearly six months after the coronavirus outbreak forced them to close and despite rising infection rates across the continent. → https://is.gd/JnS7O7 | 11:43 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Sanofi halts trial of COVID-19 drug after tests: French pharma giant Sanofi said Tuesday that international Phase 3 clinical tests of its Kevzara drug for serious COVID-19 cases had proved inconclusive and it was halting the trial. → https://is.gd/f3WNTw | 11:52 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Expect Trump to talk less and less about the pandemic the closer he gets to the election, political strategists say → https://is.gd/YGOaSQ | 12:12 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Victorian doctors pen desperate letter to Dan Andrews about controversial State of Emergency Bill. Thirteen top Victorian doctors have united to slam Dan Andrews’ lockdown strategy, saying it has “caused unprecedented negative outcomes”. → https://is.gd/zTZ0iO | 12:22 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Undocumented With COVID-19: Many Face A Long Recovery, Largely On Their Own → https://is.gd/PFxeX7 | 12:41 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Infections surge in Spain, Russia; Most adults willing to get a vaccine → https://is.gd/5aTB8I | 12:51 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Explained: Who was behind the protests against pandemic restrictions in Germany → https://is.gd/y6SXzT | 13:11 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: This summer, only the most aggressive responses stopped COVID's spread: In the United States, there has not been a COVID-19 response so much as a multitude of micro-responses. With no comprehensive national plan to unify them, local and state governments have deployed an assortment of measures—some aggressive, others less [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/7tozvm | 13:30 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Effective digital mental health more necessary then ever during COVID-19 pandemic: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused worldwide fear, uncertainty and restriction of movement. The physical distancing, socio-economic consequences of quarantine measures, and the loss of social support are a grave threat to public mental health. One [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/pyIg3h | 13:40 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Expect Trump to talk less and less about the pandemic the closer he gets to the election, political strategists say → https://is.gd/YGOaSQ | 13:50 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Study finds that COVID-19 is hitting older Black and Latinx persons hardest: A study co-authored by a Florida State University researcher has found COVID-19 is disproportionately affecting people of color in the United States. → https://is.gd/yFmRSX | 14:10 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: More than 6.5% of Adrian College's students, staff test positive for coronavirus → https://is.gd/Wa7V72 | 14:19 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Europe sees sharp rise in the number of new coronavirus cases, as Spain and Russia infections spike → https://is.gd/KdSw4G | 14:29 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Coronavirus vaccine: Canada signs deals with Novavax and Johnson & Johnson → https://is.gd/Eve2YY | 14:39 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Germany eyes V-shaped recovery; Trump talking less about virus → https://is.gd/NsFxy6 | 14:49 |
de-facto | DocScrutinizer05 it seems like the RKI Dataset Recoveries is updated, the edge where they fall off to 0 is now at 19-20, so maybe there are just no newer recovered cases available to report, hence it taking roughly 12-14 days for recovery? | 15:02 |
de-facto | before the edge was at 15-16 Aug | 15:02 |
de-facto | so actually that makes sense, looks like everything is correct and I just did not understand that there are no earlier recoveries | 15:03 |
genera | well. what is a recovery? if the number of hospitalized patient goes down by one, and it is not a fatality, it has to be one recovery? | 15:09 |
de-facto | not only hospitalized patients, all for whom no quarantine is required and who did not die from it i guess | 15:11 |
genera | "i went to Ischgl and all i got was this poor tshirt" | 15:13 |
de-facto | Recoveries 3 days ago had edge to 0 at 15-16 Aug: https://imgur.com/a/THyVBx1 now today the edge to 0 is around 19-20 Aug https://imgur.com/a/S16Dnv0 (note the beginning of a new sawtooth at the end) | 15:14 |
de-facto | so everything seems to be as supposed no bug in RKI data pipeline | 15:16 |
de-facto | :) | 15:16 |
genera | https://i.imgur.com/7X6PRjE.jpg ? | 15:20 |
de-facto | so it seems like active = accumulated_active = SUM(infections) - SUM(recoveries) - SUM(fatalities) should be the current number of active cases calculated by given incidences for infections, recoveries and fatalities | 15:20 |
de-facto | genera, yes thats the newest sawtooth forming at the end there | 15:22 |
genera | ok | 15:23 |
de-facto | probably due to periodical variations in reporting delay there are those weekly "sawtooths" in all of the incidences | 15:24 |
Brainstorm | New from StatNews: STAT Plus: Pharmalittle: Sanofi drug fails to tackle serious Covid-19 cases; EC agrees to fund WHO Covax program: Sanofi has drawn another blank in its attempt to repurpose its Kevzara rheumatoid arthritis drug to tackle the extreme immune reaction seen in serious cases of Covid-19. → https://is.gd/WiBhv5 | 15:28 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: GM completes ventilator order for U.S. stockpile; Trump talks less about virus → https://is.gd/NsFxy6 | 15:38 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Food insecurity and schools during the pandemic: The coronavirus pandemic has brought a number of challenges to schools, which were forced to close in the spring to help slow the spread of infection. One major challenge for schools was ensuring that students' nutritional supplementation needs were met when they were not [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/wW0BCK | 15:48 |
Jigsy | %cases UK | 15:55 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Libya: +658 cases (now 14624), +5 deaths (now 242) since 23 hours ago — World: +32671 cases (now 25.8 million), +863 deaths (now 856842) since 8 hours ago — Russia: +4729 cases (now 1.0 million), +123 deaths (now 17299) since 23 hours ago — India: +3712 cases (now 3.7 million), +34 deaths (now 65469) since 9 hours ago | 15:55 |
Brainstorm | Jigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 335873 confirmed cases (0.5% of the population) and 45712 deaths (13.6% of cases) as of 5 minutes ago. 18.3 million tests were performed (1.8% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 15:55 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: GM makes 30,000 ventilators for U.S. stockpile; Trump talks less about virus → https://is.gd/NsFxy6 | 15:58 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Researchers propose 12 steps to combat COVID-19 misinformation: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a complementary "infodemic," a term coined by the World Health Organization to describe the wave of false information on the pandemic. Promotion of false information can hinder mitigation efforts against COVID-19 and lead to the [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/FjPfWA | 16:08 |
DocScrutinizer05 | >>[1 Sep 2020 15:20:58] <de-facto> so it seems like active = accumulated_active = SUM(infections) - SUM(recoveries) - SUM(fatalities) should be the current number of active cases calculated by given incidences for infections, recoveries and fatalities<< that's 'correct' but meaningless since the recoveries are already calculated by a similar algo | 16:13 |
DocScrutinizer05 | the recoveries are a derived value with very little information in it | 16:15 |
DocScrutinizer05 | well, you could say same anout R_eff, but... at least for R_eff you can easily tell whether it's >1 or <1 | 16:16 |
DocScrutinizer05 | about* | 16:16 |
DocScrutinizer05 | recoveries doesn't tell you anything, but maybe makes you feel better ;-) | 16:16 |
de-facto | I would like to have the current known prevalence for a district or federal state hence the requirement for getting the current number of active known infections to divide them by population of that administrative compartment | 16:17 |
DocScrutinizer05 | umm, isn't number_of_new_infections used for that? | 16:23 |
DocScrutinizer05 | or alternatively number_of_infections_total ( - fatalities) | 16:23 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I already elaborated a few days ago that "number of recoveries" has no meaningful relation to number of infectious individuals aka spreaders in public, at all | 16:25 |
de-facto | e.g. when I know currently there are 32 active known infections in a city of 160k citizens, on average 1 in 5k people would be known to be active (those are in quarantine hence removed from contact group) | 16:25 |
de-facto | assuming real_infections = known_infections / detection_probability one could derive an expected prevalence = known_infections / ( detection_probability * number_citizens) for each region | 16:25 |
de-facto | e.g. 320 real infections with 32 known infections if only 10% get detected, hence prevalence of 320 / 160k or 1 in 500 contacts could be infectious | 16:25 |
DocScrutinizer05 | define "active" | 16:26 |
de-facto | able to cause an infection by spreading "active" pathogen | 16:26 |
de-facto | hence quarantined | 16:27 |
DocScrutinizer05 | nope, as stated one above, number of spreaders and number of recoveries have no useful relation whatsoever | 16:27 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: GM makes 30,000 ventilators for U.S. stockpile; Trump talks less about virus → https://is.gd/NsFxy6 | 16:27 |
de-facto | well ok then active as in currently fighting with SARS-CoV-2 infection with unknown outcome (either recovery or fatality) | 16:28 |
de-facto | *known SARS-CoV-2 infection | 16:29 |
de-facto | those who were detected by testing positive, quarantined for preventing further spreading and in the process of fighting with COVID-19 | 16:30 |
DocScrutinizer05 | new_cases_per_day[dnumber of spreaders roughly = new_cases_per_day[d-4 ~ d-7] + ( new_cases_per_day[d-8 ~ d-11] * percentage_of_asymptomatic ) | 16:30 |
DocScrutinizer05 | or somesuch | 16:31 |
DocScrutinizer05 | damn | 16:31 |
DocScrutinizer05 | number of spreaders roughly = new_cases_per_day[d-4 ~ d-7] + ( projected_undetected_new_cases_per_day[d-4 ~ d-11] * percentage_of_asymptomatic ) | 16:32 |
DocScrutinizer05 | since someone with detected infection (usually because the individual feels sick) goes quarantine and thus no longer is "active" spreader | 16:34 |
DocScrutinizer05 | none of all that involves recovered_cases | 16:34 |
de-facto | hmm yes that makes sense | 16:34 |
de-facto | but how about those time windows? | 16:36 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Strengthening the immune system with small molecules: Infections pose an increasing risk to hospitalized patients. In collaboration with a number of partners, the Fraunhofer Institute for Interfacial Engineering and Biotechnology IGB has developed a new therapeutic approach as part of the InnateFun project. Their strategy is to [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/QErKuL | 16:37 |
genera | InnateFun :-) | 16:38 |
DocScrutinizer05 | let me put it plain text: those active spreading wild runners today will either: *) get symptoms today, tomorrow or in 2 days AND get diagnosed as new cases, or *) ignore their symptoms or are asymptomatic today, tomorrow or in 2 days and continue to spread until today+7days. What RKI reports are only the first group | 16:44 |
DocScrutinizer05 | the first group supposed to stop being active due to quarantine as soon as they get diagnosed | 16:47 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: GM makes 30,000 ventilators for U.S. stockpile; Trump talks less about virus → https://is.gd/NsFxy6 | 16:47 |
DocScrutinizer05 | the second group of unknown number (except by estimating number of undetected cases) will probably at least partially not quarantine and thus continue spreading until day10 after infection | 16:48 |
DocScrutinizer05 | it's pretty complex | 16:50 |
de-facto | yes trying to wrap my head around it | 16:52 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Nearly 3 in 4 adults plan to get vaccinated against the coronavirus, global survey shows: China was the most enthusiastic country with 97% of respondents indicating they would be vaccinated, while Russia was the least willing with only 54% interested to do so. → https://is.gd/TKlsug | 16:57 |
de-facto | how do you derive your indices for the time window? | 16:57 |
DocScrutinizer05 | there's a "shortcut" to calculate the number of active spreaders: you assume (subject to replace by correct numbers) a 20% of infections getting detected because of symptoms consequently test, and you assume that derived number of new_cases_per_day / 20% (aka x5) does spread for a 4 days average before they either go quarantine or stop being infectious. So you can calculate number of active spreaders (using ny bogus numbers) as new_ | 17:01 |
DocScrutinizer05 | cases_today * 5 ((for 20%)) * 4 ((days)) | 17:01 |
de-facto | e.g. i detect today 150 new infections, those will have spread the virus in their incubation period already, hence contribute to free_spreaders (who are unaware) yesterday, day before yesterday, 2 days before yesterday, 3 days before yesterday but self isolate today due to suspected COVID-19 until confirmation and quarantine | 17:03 |
DocScrutinizer05 | the time periods are 2 days spreading before symptoms (and test and quarantine) | 17:05 |
DocScrutinizer05 | 4 days series length | 17:06 |
DocScrutinizer05 | though series length is irrelevant here | 17:06 |
de-facto | yeah something like that | 17:06 |
de-facto | e.g. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0869-5/figures/1 | 17:07 |
de-facto | so if those 150 cases would spread 4 days (on average) before onset of symptoms, hence contribute today active_spreaders(today - 0) += -150 (today removed due to quarantine), active_spreaders(today - 1) += 150 (day before symptom onset max spread), active_spreaders(today - 2) += 150, active_spreaders(today - 3) += 150, active_spreaders(today - 4) += 150 | 17:13 |
de-facto | (idk just as example not sure about 4 days there) | 17:13 |
genera | you have no asymptomatic spreaders? | 17:16 |
de-facto | not in that yet | 17:17 |
genera | do we have those anyway? | 17:19 |
de-facto | yes | 17:19 |
genera | hm | 17:20 |
de-facto | %title https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2769235 | 17:20 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From jamanetwork.com: Clinical Course and Molecular Viral Shedding Among Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Patients With SARS-CoV-2 Infection in a Community Treatment Center in the Republic of Korea | Infectious Diseases | JAMA [...] | 17:20 |
de-facto | %title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.08.20125484v1 | 17:23 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: An analysis of SARS-CoV-2 viral load by patient age | medRxiv | 17:23 |
DocScrutinizer05 | for day x you got sigma[N=1 ~ 2](reported_new_cases[x+N] * factor_undetected) assuming all undetected also only spread for 2 days, but they spread for 7 days since they don't go quarantine, at least not all of them. Thus you compensate that by another multiplier factor which resulted in me assuming 4 days per case *average* , not 2 days | 17:23 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: GM makes 30,000 ventilators for U.S. stockpile; Trump talks less about virus → https://is.gd/NsFxy6 | 17:26 |
DocScrutinizer05 | in the end the calculation is just 'good enough' since it doesn't suffer random variations of the systematic error and in the end it doesn't matter if you got 300 or 400 or even 500 spreaders per 100k, you want a ballpark figure to get an idea of the real situation and this is fine for that purpose | 17:27 |
de-facto | yes it does not have to be perfect, just trying to reconstruct it | 17:28 |
DocScrutinizer05 | you have to guesstimate numbers already for the number_of_undetected etc, so... | 17:28 |
de-facto | so for day x you want to find the number of unaware active spreaders | 17:28 |
de-facto | how do you derive your sum there? | 17:29 |
de-facto | lets exclude undetected and asymptomatic for now | 17:30 |
de-facto | just the number of currently active unaware spreaders who will show up in positive tests | 17:30 |
DocScrutinizer05 | you add day*1 and day*2 new cases and multiply those with a correection factor (undetected*exteded_spread_spread_period) aka (my guess) 5 * 2 aka 10 | 17:30 |
de-facto | yes I got that, but how goes your motivation for that? | 17:30 |
DocScrutinizer05 | day+1 and day+2 sorry | 17:31 |
de-facto | so you only can tell that number for a delay in the past, not for today since those unaware spreading today were not tested positive yet | 17:32 |
DocScrutinizer05 | as I elaborated above, a person spreading today will either "feel sick" tomorrow or in two days and thus get reported, or that person is one of the 80% who don't feel sick enough to get a test and thus go unnoticed. Part of the latter group will self-quarantine because of feeling sick nevertheless | 17:33 |
DocScrutinizer05 | yes, exactly | 17:33 |
de-facto | ok then i think i understood it | 17:34 |
DocScrutinizer05 | 20% aka factor 5 for undetected_cases (dunkelziffer) is a fair assumption for germany, I think. Factor 2 for extended average period over the 2 days of detected to maybe 10 days max for those who neither get tested nor do self-quarantine is subject to anybody's guess | 17:38 |
de-facto | uff now how to do that in SQL... :P | 17:43 |
DocScrutinizer05 | the latter could be 1 (if you'd assume *everybody* that catches the virus goes quarantine 4 days after infection aka 2 days after staerting to spread). or sth like 5 if you assume even those who got a positive test don't quarantine and spread for a full 10 days | 17:44 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: A SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate would likely match all currently circulating variants (91 votes) | https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/08/28/2008281117 | https://redd.it/ikl6yw | 17:45 |
DocScrutinizer05 | this is not exactly proper SQL but sth like COUNT(SELECT WHERE Meldedatum > (now - 2days)) * 1/0.2 * 2 | 17:50 |
de-facto | yes something like that, i am messing around with the RKI db in SQLite3 | 17:51 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Fauci debunks theories of low CDC coronavirus death toll: 'There are 180,000 plus deaths' in U.S.: "That does not mean that someone who has hypertension or diabetes who dies of Covid didn't die of Covid-19. They did," Dr. Anthony Fauci told ABC's "Good Morning America." → https://is.gd/UHbi6T | 17:55 |
DocScrutinizer05 | further simplifying the whole thing: number_of_spreaders_running_wild[today] ~= number_of_new_cases[today] * 20 | 17:57 |
de-facto | well that would be a rough estimate independent of accumulation effects of the direct past replications | 17:58 |
DocScrutinizer05 | this is just neglecting different values for number_of_new_cases[today] vs [yesterday] | 18:00 |
DocScrutinizer05 | to improve you may do (number_of_new_cases[today] + number_of_new_cases[yesterday])/2 * 20 | 18:01 |
de-facto | yeah convolution with a normal distributed kernel or such | 18:03 |
de-facto | problem is the most recent new cases are always falling off to 0 due to reporting delay | 18:04 |
de-facto | so without nowcasting the most recent incidences are not really usable | 18:04 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Spacing Singapore to improve social distancing: Four days before Singapore implemented its 'circuit breaker' to stem the spread of COVID-19 on April 7, SMU Associate Professor of Information Systems Rajesh Balan and NUS Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine Professor Michael Chee launched the Singapore Spacer project. The Singapore [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/1Qwhlc | 18:05 |
DocScrutinizer05 | that's why >>last meaningful datapoint:2020/08/28<< in http://maemo.cloud-7.de/et_al/covid/covid19_statistics.htm | 18:08 |
DocScrutinizer05 | no nowcasting as that smells like a glorified extrapolation to me which doesn't help shit for real evaluation of trends etc | 18:09 |
DocScrutinizer05 | my naive guesses from simply watching the curve always been much better than RKI's nowcasting | 18:10 |
DocScrutinizer05 | s/glorified/oversophisticated/ | 18:11 |
DocScrutinizer05 | >>Unlike RKI the data here doesn‘t use any „NowCasting“ so any interpolation of trends is up to you ;-) << | 18:14 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Coronavirus: Bolton asks for restrictions to remain after spike → https://is.gd/ynodXz | 18:15 |
de-facto | yeah thats why i like to look at time series rather than relying on a single value like "todays Reff is bla bla" | 18:25 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Family emergency savings wiped out; Dems say PPP program wasted billions → https://is.gd/NsFxy6 | 18:25 |
de-facto | when i can see it the context of the most recent trend it makes much more sense to interpret its meaning | 18:26 |
de-facto | very nice site there :) | 18:28 |
de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, btw how did you derive your 1 day Reff = d[0]/d[-1]^4 from the usual 4 day Reff = d[0]/d[-4] ? | 18:28 |
DocScrutinizer05 | please rephrase. The formula is jast that, what's your question? | 18:34 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Virus crisis easing across Sun Belt but could heat up again: The torrid coronavirus summer across the Sun Belt is easing after two disastrous months that brought more than 35,000 deaths. Whether the outbreak will heat up again after Labor Day and the resumption of school and football in the land of Friday Night Lights remains [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/8IJZw4 | 18:35 |
DocScrutinizer05 | R_eff[4d] and *[1d] are both dreived from 7day average of new_infections | 18:36 |
DocScrutinizer05 | derived* | 18:37 |
de-facto | trying to understand that formula, i guess its from N(t) = N(0) R ^(t/tau) with tau = 4 days serial interval and t=1 day delay for new cases N => N(1) / N(0) = R ^(1/4) => R = (N(1) / N(0))^4 | 18:37 |
DocScrutinizer05 | (new_cases_today/new_cases_yesterday)^4 | 18:38 |
de-facto | yes thats only a redefinition of timebase then, e.g. R=(N(0)/N(-1))^4 | 18:39 |
DocScrutinizer05 | sorry I usually have the "formula" in my mind just out of nowhere, then I verify against existing solutions | 18:39 |
de-facto | yeah its correct, just trying to motivate and understand it :) | 18:40 |
DocScrutinizer05 | a/d = a/b * b/c * c/d | 18:41 |
de-facto | So you do a 7 day rolling average on daily new infections N(t) with a box sum function, then derive R4(t) = N(t) / N(t-4) and R1(t) = ( N(t) / N(t-1) ) ^ 4 form that right? | 18:43 |
DocScrutinizer05 | yes, exactly | 18:44 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Florida drops Quest for coronavirus testing after lab reports backlog of 75,000 test results: "The law requires all COVID-19 results to be reported to DOH in a timely manner. To drop this much unusable and stale data is irresponsible," Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said. → https://is.gd/tmY48J | 18:44 |
DocScrutinizer05 | the 7d average proved appropriate for the weekly periodic noise, empirically | 18:44 |
de-facto | i tried doing it on the raw data but that fluctuates wildly so i guess its better to do it on smoothed data | 18:45 |
DocScrutinizer05 | BTDT, doesn't give any useful info | 18:45 |
DocScrutinizer05 | smoothed data is it | 18:45 |
de-facto | afaik RKI does the smoothing by calculating the reproduction number as ratio of two rolling sums delayed by one serial interval tau = 4 days like Reff(t) = (N(t-0) + N(t-1) + N(t-2) + N(t-3)) / (N(t-4) + N(t-5) + N(t-6) + N(t-7)) | 18:47 |
DocScrutinizer05 | 7d rolling window is quite appropriate for this case. I tried "recurring pattern matching" with a 7d cycle period, still to much real random noise in that | 18:47 |
DocScrutinizer05 | too much* | 18:48 |
DocScrutinizer05 | yep, that's what RKI does | 18:48 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I didn't see the purpose | 18:48 |
DocScrutinizer05 | maybe mine is a tad more 'sluggish' | 18:49 |
DocScrutinizer05 | that's why I came up with R_eff(1d) | 18:49 |
de-facto | they also do a more smoothed version with weekly rolling sums ratio as R7eff(t) = (N(t-0) + N(t-1) + N(t-2) + N(t-3) + N(t-4) + N(t-5) + N(t-6)) / (N(t-4) + N(t-5) + N(t-6) + N(t-7) + N(t-8) + N(t-9) + N(t-10)) | 18:50 |
DocScrutinizer05 | which is basically identical to my R_eff(4d) | 18:51 |
de-facto | yes i think so | 18:51 |
DocScrutinizer05 | one more difference betweek RJI diagrams and mine: I use "meldedatum" always, not that weird mix of "meldedatum nur wenn kein erkrankungsdatum" | 18:52 |
de-facto | so your R1(t) is faster while still compensating for weekly periodicity | 18:52 |
DocScrutinizer05 | between RKI* | 18:52 |
de-facto | i used refdatum | 18:53 |
de-facto | I guessed that reference date would mean the date where that specific incidence refers to, not sure what do you think? | 18:53 |
de-facto | not sure if they published a definition of their colums somewhere | 18:55 |
DocScrutinizer05 | nope they didn't. IIRC refdate =^= Meldedatum | 19:05 |
DocScrutinizer05 | their database structure is a mess and a a PITA | 19:06 |
DocScrutinizer05 | as a CS-student you'd fail any test providing such mess as a solution for a database structure | 19:07 |
DocScrutinizer05 | it seems like somebody pondered deeply how to de-normalize that shit | 19:08 |
DocScrutinizer05 | prolly a direct verbatib aggregation of 4 version of a 'multiple choice' paper form for FAX transfer | 19:10 |
de-facto | so there is "Meldedatum" meaning reporting_date "Datenstand" which probably means data_update or such and the "Refdatum" which I interpret as reference_date, hence i thought that "Refdatum" might be the one refering to the incidence, but that a guess | 19:11 |
de-facto | each row being a "patch" to the current numbers with unique FID or ObjectId | 19:12 |
de-facto | sometimes they even have negative incidences for corrections | 19:13 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): U.S. advisors recommend four phases for distributing coronavirus vaccine nationwide → https://is.gd/NkQYyL | 19:14 |
de-facto | most of the updates refer to a point in time near the most recent edge (e.g. the end) of current incidences | 19:14 |
DocScrutinizer05 | aaah, now I recall, yes refdate might be "date of infection if known, otherwise date of reporting" | 19:18 |
DocScrutinizer05 | "Datenstand" I understand as always should be '$today' | 19:19 |
de-facto | well if some region fails to report in time it may be also in the past i guess | 19:19 |
de-facto | so Refdatum is correct then? | 19:20 |
DocScrutinizer05 | maybe | 19:20 |
de-facto | i am not sure | 19:20 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Family emergency savings wiped out; Dems say PPP program wasted billions → https://is.gd/NsFxy6 | 19:24 |
DocScrutinizer05 | refdate is prolly whatever "IstErkrankungsbeginn (bool)" says | 19:24 |
DocScrutinizer05 | https://npgeo-corona-npgeo-de.hub.arcgis.com/datasets/dd4580c810204019a7b8eb3e0b329dd6_0 | 19:25 |
DocScrutinizer05 | expand the "More"! | 19:25 |
DocScrutinizer05 | >>Beschreibung der Daten des RKI Covid-19-Dashboards (https://corona.rki.de)<< | 19:26 |
DocScrutinizer05 | >>In der Datenquelle sind folgende Parameter enthalten: .....<< | 19:26 |
de-facto | oh perfect they did define it in good detail there | 19:27 |
DocScrutinizer05 | oh GOSH!!! >:-( they messed up the semantics even further since I looked last time | 19:30 |
de-facto | oh even the summing of cases depends on their booleans, good find :)) | 19:30 |
DocScrutinizer05 | yeah, shit | 19:30 |
de-facto | i naively did ignore those boleans | 19:30 |
de-facto | booleans | 19:30 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I think I didn't ignore them but based on the definitions back when they were not relevant | 19:31 |
DocScrutinizer05 | >>-1: Fall ist in der aktuellen Publikation kein Todesfall, jedoch war er in der Publikation des Vortags ein Todesfall<< WTF?? Resurrection? | 19:32 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: U.S. advisors recommend four phases for distributing coronavirus vaccine nationwide: The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine released a draft proposal for distributing a coronavirus vaccine in the U.S. if and when one is approved for public use. → https://is.gd/NkQYyL | 19:33 |
DocScrutinizer05 | >>Referenzdatum: Erkrankungsdatum bzw. wenn das nicht bekannt ist, das Meldedatum<< | 19:36 |
de-facto | hmmm | 19:39 |
DocScrutinizer05 | yeah, http://maemo.cloud-7.de/et_al/covid/s_1.sh needs some update to accomodate the new weird semantics of their "boolenas" | 19:41 |
de-facto | would we want (0,1) or (-1,1) | 19:42 |
de-facto | or flags or what they would be called | 19:42 |
DocScrutinizer05 | 0,1,-1,-9 'boolean' | 19:42 |
DocScrutinizer05 | good question, I didn't wrap my head around the meaning of their gibberish | 19:43 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Family emergency savings wiped out; Dems say PPP program wasted billions → https://is.gd/NsFxy6 | 19:43 |
DocScrutinizer05 | what does it mean when a case is dead in yeasterdays's set but not dead in today's? | 19:43 |
DocScrutinizer05 | they didn't have that bullshit when I looked last time | 19:44 |
de-facto | i did not understood that either, some correction or such? | 19:45 |
DocScrutinizer05 | prolly | 19:45 |
DocScrutinizer05 | there's a web interface to set up queries. Only chance to find some example records to try make sense of this | 19:46 |
DocScrutinizer05 | like this https://services7.arcgis.com/mOBPykOjAyBO2ZKk/arcgis/rest/services/RKI_COVID19/FeatureServer/0/query?where=NeuerTodesfall%20%3E%3D%20-10%20AND%20NeuerTodesfall%20%3C%3D%20-1&outFields=*&outSR=4326&f=json | 19:51 |
de-facto | so in my SQLite i have 192836 rows with AnzahlFall >0 of which 191725 have NeuerFall==0, 1112 have NeuerFall=1 and none NeuerFall=0 | 19:52 |
DocScrutinizer05 | ? | 19:53 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: U.S. advisors recommend four phases for distributing coronavirus vaccine nationwide: The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine released a draft proposal for distributing a coronavirus vaccine in the U.S. if and when one is approved for public use. → https://is.gd/NkQYyL | 19:53 |
DocScrutinizer05 | hmm ========== 196048 records done ========== | 19:54 |
DocScrutinizer05 | some 3000 records with AnzahlFall=0 ? | 19:55 |
DocScrutinizer05 | aaaah deaths etc | 19:55 |
DocScrutinizer05 | AnzahlGenesen actually | 19:56 |
de-facto | or AnzahlTodesfall<>0 8640 rows, 8633 with NeuerTodesfall==0, 5 with NeuerTodesfall>0, 2 with NeuerTodesfall<0 | 19:57 |
DocScrutinizer05 | this is a ridiculous pathetic database structure | 19:59 |
DocScrutinizer05 | this explains why my numbers always been off a maybe 30 or 50 to those published in RKI chart | 20:01 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Family emergency savings wiped out; Dems say PPP program wasted billions → https://is.gd/NsFxy6 | 20:03 |
de-facto | have you found out which combo of NeuXXX flag is appropriate? | 20:09 |
DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: those 2 <0 cases would be interesting to inspect. Also would be useful to print out the complete 7 exotic records and find them in tomorrow's dataset and compare their flags to what they been today | 20:11 |
DocScrutinizer05 | well, according to their gibberish: >>damit ergibt sich: Anzahl Todesfälle der aktuellen Publikation als Summe(AnzahlTodesfall) wenn NeuerTodesfall in (0,1); Delta zum Vortag als Summe(AnzahlTodesfall) wenn NeuerTodesfall in (-1,1)<< | 20:11 |
DocScrutinizer05 | which - nota bene - might be absolutely unrelated to (total_number_yesterday - total_number_today) | 20:13 |
DocScrutinizer05 | technically you could tag a fatality reported in february as 'new' | 20:15 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Watch live: Treasury Secretary Mnuchin testifies before House committee over coronavirus relief → https://is.gd/epkK1F | 20:22 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Family emergency savings wiped out; Dems say PPP program wasted billions → https://is.gd/NsFxy6 | 20:32 |
DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: check out this! https://services7.arcgis.com/mOBPykOjAyBO2ZKk/arcgis/rest/services/RKI_COVID19/FeatureServer/0/query?where=%28AnzahlTodesfall+%3E+0%29+and+%28NeuerTodesfall+%3D+1%29&objectIds=&time=&resultType=none&outFields=*&returnIdsOnly=false&returnUniqueIdsOnly=false&returnCountOnly=false&returnDistinctValues=false&cacheHint=false&orderByFields=&groupByFieldsForStatistics=&outStatistics=&having=&resultOffset=& | 20:36 |
DocScrutinizer05 | resultRecordCount=&sqlFormat=none&f=html&token= | 20:36 |
DocScrutinizer05 | NB: AnzahlFall:1 | 20:37 |
DocScrutinizer05 | AnzahlTodesfall:1 | 20:37 |
DocScrutinizer05 | FFS | 20:37 |
de-facto | hmmm | 20:38 |
DocScrutinizer05 | also see Meldedatum, Refdatum! | 20:39 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I wonder if tomorrow you could even decide anymore if that fatality happened today or any time between 7/31/2020 12:00:00 AM and tomorrow | 20:40 |
de-facto | weird | 20:40 |
DocScrutinizer05 | see e.g. ObjectId:31662759 record in following query, it has "Meldedatum" set to supposedly the date of fatality (4/11) while refdatum is 3/30 so maybe the time this person been hospitalized | 20:54 |
DocScrutinizer05 | http://tinyurl.com/y6q735dk | 20:55 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Kindergartner tests positive for COVID-19 on first day of in-person classes at League City school in Texas (10149 votes) | https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/kindergartner-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-at-ross-elementary-clear-creek-isd/285-ef8bc374-f5d0-4498-a9fb-cd09c4c9519a | https://redd.it/ikkj3z | 20:58 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Top U.S. health officials warn Labor Day will be essential for containing coronavirus this fall: Adm. Brett Giroir and Dr. Anthony Fauci have warned this week that a safe Labor Day holiday will be key for controlling the coronavirus this fall. → https://is.gd/azLCYT | 21:02 |
de-facto | thats interesting, so refdatum is not always the one of the incidence in question? | 21:05 |
de-facto | Meldedatum is the date where the data collector was made aware of the case, but Refdatum the one that specifies the incidence more precisely i guess | 21:08 |
DocScrutinizer05 | refdate = reporting date unless known date of infection is available | 21:09 |
DocScrutinizer05 | >>Referenzdatum: Erkrankungsdatum bzw. wenn das nicht bekannt ist, das Meldedatum<< | 21:10 |
de-facto | so i interpret that as died on 2020-03-30 but they have been notified later at 2020-04-11 | 21:10 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I'd interpret it the opposize way | 21:10 |
DocScrutinizer05 | but maybe that's just wishful thinking | 21:11 |
de-facto | "Meldedatum: Datum, wann der Fall dem Gesundheitsamt bekannt geworden ist" <-- hence the date where they have been made aware, that has to be post the event | 21:11 |
DocScrutinizer05 | honestly, no idea | 21:12 |
DocScrutinizer05 | "Der Fall" might as well be initial positive test | 21:13 |
de-facto | so always should hold Refdatum <= Meldedatum unless there is timetravel in the past :) | 21:13 |
de-facto | "Referenzdatum: Erkrankungsdatum bzw. wenn das nicht bekannt ist, das Meldedatum" <-- indeed they mention date of illness not specifying if they mean test, hospitalization or death, but imho the instant of the incidence in question would make most sense | 21:15 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I wouldn't be too surprised to find even the paper form to get filed by jealthcare department has that ambiguity and thus both cases may occur | 21:17 |
DocScrutinizer05 | healthcare* | 21:17 |
de-facto | hopefully not... | 21:18 |
DocScrutinizer05 | the question is if the tier processing the data aquisition has knowledge about case history ( patient file | 21:19 |
DocScrutinizer05 | when they have a "Patient 23543 hospitalized 23/3 now died yesterday 30/3" then odds are they use 23/3 as refdate throughout. If such history isn't available then definitely one date is date of incident (fatality) and the other the date of this very report | 21:22 |
DocScrutinizer05 | err use that as MEldedatum throughout | 21:23 |
DocScrutinizer05 | gosh, that shit gives me headache | 21:24 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Family emergency savings wiped out; Dems say PPP program wasted billions → https://is.gd/NsFxy6 | 21:32 |
DocScrutinizer05 | how hard could it be to have a record structure like [positive-infected | recovered | hospitalized | fatality]; infectiondate; symptomdate; testdate; start-of-treatment-date; hospitalizationdate; recoverydate; date-of-death; unique-annonymous-ID; year-of-birth-randomized+-3; gender; known-pre-existing-condition_text | 21:32 |
DocScrutinizer05 | and just exactly one case per record, not number-of-cases, number-of-fatalities AND number-of-recoveries | 21:33 |
DocScrutinizer05 | the latter might make sense for a district that has 5000 cases per day and doesn't want to send one FAX per case every day | 21:34 |
DocScrutinizer05 | for a database it's utter bullshit | 21:34 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Coronavirus: Bolton and Trafford ask to continue restrictions: Bosses in Bolton and Trafford say local measures should remain in place after a rise in cases. → https://is.gd/ynodXz | 21:41 |
swift110 | he yall | 21:43 |
de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, this is how I import it from a shell script | 21:54 |
de-facto | https://paste.gg/p/anonymous/1c7e564920d749f985d5a24263672a74 | 21:54 |
de-facto | can also be done with GUI sqlitebrowser covid-19-germany-*.sqlite | 21:55 |
de-facto | so i guess those flags have to be fitlered for in the incidence VIEW there | 22:00 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus live updates: Family emergency savings wiped out; Dems say PPP program wasted billions → https://is.gd/NsFxy6 | 22:01 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: New York and California may have already achieved herd immunity, data scientist says: Ben-Gurion University of the Negev (BGU) data scientist Prof. Mark Last sees the end of the coronavirus peak in Israel and believes that New York and California may have reached herd immunity. → https://is.gd/P2eqnE | 22:11 |
LjL | how on earth would they have achieved herd immunity | 22:15 |
LjL | this thing keeps coming up but it makes no sense | 22:15 |
LjL | "In late June, New York State was close to reaching herd immunity, according to the SIR model, which is defined by a disease reproduction number of less than one." | 22:15 |
LjL | no that's not the definition of herd immunity at all | 22:15 |
bin_bash | LjL: yeah i really dont get it and it pisses me off | 22:16 |
LjL | and then of course brings up the serology survey that was bogus as hell | 22:16 |
LjL | "In California, it appears that herd immunity was reached around July 15 with slightly more than 10% of their population (4.05 million) being infected," he says. "This means that their basic reproduction number R0 under current restrictions is only 1.1. | 22:16 |
LjL | really how ON EARTH does 10% of the population being infected bring about herd immunity | 22:17 |
bin_bash | like using that definition we have herd immunity to the plauge (no we dont, but the disease reproducion number is less than 1 last i looked) | 22:17 |
LjL | and what sense does it make to mix that with the R "under current restrictions" | 22:17 |
bin_bash | 0 | 22:17 |
LjL | Moreover, according to my calculations, we need 1.16 million people with antibodies in order to achieve herd immunity and we are very close to that number," he says. | 22:18 |
DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: I love that script style | 22:18 |
LjL | yes, there is a magic number with two decimal digits precision that suddenly creates herd immunity *nods* | 22:18 |
de-facto | thanks :) | 22:18 |
de-facto | it lets me remind how to use functions | 22:19 |
bin_bash | LjL: everything he says makes my eye twitch | 22:19 |
LjL | i only recently added Medical Xpress to the list of RSS sources Brainstorm feeds from | 22:19 |
LjL | i might have to quickly revert that | 22:20 |
bin_bash | usually medical xpress is pretty good from what ive seen, but if they keep boosting this asshole's signal then it may just be trash after all | 22:20 |
DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: for me it's also an incentive to get a little more fluent in SQL again | 22:20 |
de-facto | its my first approach on SQL | 22:21 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: A surprising opportunity for telehealth in shaping the future of medicine: Expanded telehealth services at UT Southwestern have proved effective at safely delivering patient care during the pandemic, leading to an increase in patients even in specialties such as plastic surgery, according to a new study. → https://is.gd/vQl9nC | 22:21 |
DocScrutinizer05 | seems to work :-D | 22:21 |
de-facto | yup probably postgreSQL would be better, but i like to have it on one local portable file | 22:22 |
Jigsy | %cases UK | 22:25 |
Brainstorm | Updates for India: +71230 cases (now 3.8 million), +991 deaths (now 66460) since 6 hours ago — World: +134803 cases (now 25.9 million), +2385 deaths (now 859227) since 6 hours ago — US: +30213 cases (now 6.2 million), +669 deaths (now 188494) since 6 hours ago — Ireland: +214 cases (now 29025) since a day ago | 22:26 |
Brainstorm | Jigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 337168 confirmed cases (0.5% of the population) and 45712 deaths (13.6% of cases) as of 5 minutes ago. 18.3 million tests were performed (1.8% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 22:26 |
LJ_cache | %cases Alberta | 22:26 |
Brainstorm | LJ_cache: In Alberta, Canada, there have been 13902 confirmed cases (0.3% of the population) and 239 deaths (1.7% of cases) as of 15 hours ago. 77316 tests were performed (18.0% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Alberta for time series data. | 22:26 |
DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: may I "borrow" this code? | 22:30 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: COVID and influenza: This is a good year to get a flu shot, experts advise: Flu season will look different this year, as the country grapples with a coronavirus pandemic that has killed more than 172,000 people. Many Americans are reluctant to visit a doctor's office and public health officials worry people will shy away from [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/7Ib6qf | 22:31 |
de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, yes sure | 22:31 |
DocScrutinizer05 | wow, lightning fast too, compared to my bash botch | 22:32 |
de-facto | would neat if you share mods too :) | 22:32 |
DocScrutinizer05 | sure thing | 22:32 |
DocScrutinizer05 | so far http://maemo.cloud-7.de/et_al/covid/covid-19-germany.sh | 22:38 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Federal health advisors predict four coronavirus vaccine trials backed by U.S. could fail: A top group advising U.S. health officials predicted Tuesday that four late-stage coronavirus vaccine trials backed by the United States could fail to provide positive results. → https://is.gd/ZyHgoD | 22:40 |
de-facto | hehe nice | 22:41 |
LjL | fail... or... provide early vaccines that can be fast-tracked by the FDA for great Trump ratings?! | 22:41 |
LjL | it's all in how you look at it | 22:42 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: The loss of employer-sponsored health insurance can be a serious concern for older people: Michael Kerr thought he would be back to work by now. When the 52-year-old from Reading, Pa., was put on furlough from his retail manager position in mid-March, he figured the business would reopen by April, reinstating him and other employees. → https://is.gd/rZTkNZ | 22:50 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Minimal SARS-CoV-2 diversity suggests a global vaccine is feasible: Genetic analysis of sequences from more than 27,000 individuals infected with the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 reveals that the virus has mutated minimally since December 2019, suggesting one vaccine would be sufficient to combat global infections. → https://is.gd/ueUrRK | 23:10 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): NIH panel refutes FDA's claims of the benefits of coronavirus plasma treatment → https://is.gd/fnysKp | 23:20 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: US won't join global coronavirus vaccine initiative → https://is.gd/6KZcLS | 23:39 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Coronavirus: Bolton and Trafford ask to continue restrictions: Bosses in Bolton and Trafford say local measures should remain in place after a rise in cases. → https://is.gd/ynodXz | 23:49 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Alabama Confirms 19 Coronavirus Deaths, Adds 982 New Cases → https://is.gd/QrtYDT | 23:59 |
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