libera/##covid-19/ Tuesday, 2020-09-22

ryoumahttps://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/covid-19-heart-pandemic-coronavirus-myocarditis/616420/00:03
LjLpostit: read https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/covid-19-heart-pandemic-coronavirus-myocarditis/616420/ when i'm calmer00:05
ryoumathen i won't quote it00:19
LjLlol, up to you, it would be a bit silly of me to request that given the nature of the channel00:19
ryoumaworth reading00:21
LjLthat's why i postit'd, that's not just a joke, i used that as a keyword to grep logs later sometimes00:21
LjLuse*00:22
LjLi wonder where nixonix is, he's not connected to IRC in a week or two, and he was good00:23
BrainstormUpdates for World: +51709 cases (now 31.6 million), +869 deaths (now 969810) since 4 hours ago — US: +23090 cases (now 7.0 million), +168 deaths (now 204427) since 4 hours ago — Brazil: +12933 cases (now 4.6 million), +353 deaths (now 137350) since 7 hours ago — Guyana: +133 cases (now 2402), +1 deaths (now 65) since 23 hours ago01:22
Jigsy%cases UK02:58
BrainstormJigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 398625 confirmed cases (0.6% of the population) and 45712 deaths (11.5% of cases) as of 8 hours ago. 22.2 million tests were performed (1.8% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data.02:58
BrainstormUpdates for Netherlands: +1678 cases (now 97673), +9 deaths (now 6303) since 2 hours ago — World: +17014 cases (now 31.6 million), +746 deaths (now 970556) since 2 hours ago — Argentina: +8782 cases (now 640147), +429 deaths (now 13482) since a day ago — France: +4121 cases (now 470147) since 2 hours ago03:52
Jigsyhttps://i.imgur.com/NCLXWUH.jpg05:53
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: California's COVID-19 positivity rate drops below 3% for the first time (10466 votes) | https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-09-21/california-covid19-positivity-rate-drops-below-3-percent-for-the-first-time | https://redd.it/ixde8u06:43
BrainstormUpdates for World: +30225 cases (now 31.6 million), +223 deaths (now 970779) since 3 hours ago — Quebec, Canada: +586 cases (now 68128), +2 deaths (now 5804) since a day ago — Peru: +4001 cases (now 772896), +105 deaths (now 31474) since a day ago — France: +3827 cases (now 473974) since 3 hours ago07:08
BrainstormUpdates for Texas, US: +21771 cases (now 734778), +39 deaths (now 15127) since 23 hours ago — Madrid, Spain: +11991 cases (now 199036), +24 deaths (now 9023) since 2 days ago — Andalusia, Spain: +2988 cases (now 50600), +28 deaths (now 1690) since 2 days ago — Castile y Leon, Spain: +2147 cases (now 41019), +17 deaths (now 2948) since 2 days ago07:23
BrainstormUpdates for Georgia: +218 cases (now 3913), +2 deaths (now 22) since 22 hours ago — World: +1983 cases (now 31.6 million), +7 deaths (now 970789) since an hour ago — Israel: +1650 cases (now 192579) since 7 hours ago — Armenia: +115 cases (now 47667), +2 deaths (now 938) since 22 hours ago09:08
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Diseases, Conditions, Syndromes: Does the coronavirus spread easily among children? → https://is.gd/U2kgB009:46
BrainstormUpdates for World: +6903 cases (now 31.6 million), +168 deaths (now 970957) since 56 minutes ago — Russia: +6215 cases (now 1.1 million), +160 deaths (now 19649) since 23 hours ago — Latvia: +34 cases (now 1560) since 23 hours ago — Hungary: +633 cases (now 19499), +8 deaths (now 694) since 23 hours ago09:53
BrainstormUpdates for World: +7773 cases (now 31.6 million), +236 deaths (now 971193) since an hour ago — Finland: +149 cases (now 9195) since 17 hours ago — Indonesia: +4071 cases (now 252923), +160 deaths (now 9837) since a day ago — Philippines: +1599 cases (now 291789), +50 deaths (now 5049) since a day ago11:24
mirrorbirdhi11:46
BrainstormUpdates for Iran: +3712 cases (now 429193), +178 deaths (now 24656) since 23 hours ago — World: +12121 cases (now 31.6 million), +303 deaths (now 971496) since an hour ago — India: +4463 cases (now 5.6 million), +24 deaths (now 88989) since 5 hours ago — Bangladesh: +1557 cases (now 352178), +28 deaths (now 5007) since 23 hours ago12:54
AndreasKunstmannhttps://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/09/22/pers-s22.html14:50
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: COVID-19 herd immunity in the Brazilian Amazon -- a medRxiv preprint (aka not peer-reviewed) claims the herd immunity threshold has been achieved in Manaus (city in Brazilian Amazon) after 66% of the population became infected. (81 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.16.20194787v1 | https://redd.it/ixjw9815:16
DocScrutinizer05sick artifacts in https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=France;Germany;Italy;Spain&cumulative=no&smooth=yes for last datapoint of france & spain15:18
Jigsy%cases UK15:33
BrainstormJigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 398625 confirmed cases (0.6% of the population) and 45712 deaths (11.5% of cases) as of 13 minutes ago. 22.2 million tests were performed (1.8% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data.15:33
BrainstormUpdates for World: +19440 cases (now 31.6 million), +266 deaths (now 971762) since 3 hours ago — India: +6970 cases (now 5.6 million), +79 deaths (now 89068) since 3 hours ago — Nepal: +1356 cases (now 66632), +2 deaths (now 429) since a day ago — Sweden: +1199 cases (now 89436), +5 deaths (now 5870) since 4 days ago16:10
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +3677 cases (now 403551) since an hour ago — World: +24518 cases (now 31.7 million), +346 deaths (now 972108) since an hour ago — India: +6190 cases (now 5.6 million), +49 deaths (now 89117) since an hour ago — Iraq: +4724 cases (now 327580), +57 deaths (now 8682) since 23 hours ago17:35
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV2 viral loads in young children do not differ significantly from those in older children and adults (90 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.17.20192245v1 | https://redd.it/ixncry17:59
BrainstormUpdates for Friuli Venezia Giulia, Italy: +346 deaths (now 696) since 5 minutes ago — World: +3769 cases (now 31.7 million), +113 deaths (now 972221) since 35 minutes ago — US: +2735 cases (now 7.1 million), +95 deaths (now 204801) since 35 minutes ago — Germany: +278 cases (now 276504), +2 deaths (now 9487) since 35 minutes ago18:05
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Performance of fabrics for home-made masks against the spread of COVID-19 through droplets: A quantitative mechanistic study (81 votes) | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352431620301802?via%3Dihub | https://redd.it/ixjjup18:05
BrainstormUpdates for Jordan: +634 cases (now 5679), +1 deaths (now 33) since 17 hours ago — World: +2326 cases (now 31.7 million), +66 deaths (now 972287) since 22 minutes ago — Turkey: +1692 cases (now 306302), +65 deaths (now 7639) since 21 hours ago18:20
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: Majority of Canadians say wearing a mask during coronavirus pandemic is a civic duty: poll (10079 votes) | https://globalnews.ca/news/7350128/canadians-support-wearing-mask-coronavirus/ | https://redd.it/ixnbqt19:18
JigsyI wonder if the UK will announce a lockdown again.20:14
JigsySince there's some kind of announcement in 45m.20:15
de-factolink?20:16
LjLde-facto, dunno, but i suspect https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Auq9mYxFEE will have it20:18
LjLor had it20:18
LjLit says that Nicola Sturgeon has announcement people aren't allow to meet each other in Scotland now20:18
LjL10pm curfew for bars pubs and restaurants in England20:19
de-factoat least they do some change in strategy thats good20:20
LjLJohnson to address the nation at 8pm20:20
LjL(40 minutes from now i believe)20:21
de-factoseems the Brits take it seriously since Boris had his personal encounter with the pathogen20:22
de-factoi mean their management20:22
de-factopeople probably took it seriously even before measures were taken20:23
AimHereIIRC, what happened was that Dominic Cummings had a bunch of maverick freethinkers wittering on about herd immunity for a couple of weeks and then spoke to scientists who told him how asinine that idea was and they changed tack somewhat20:28
Jigsy[19:22:33] <de-facto> seems the Brits take it seriously since Boris had his personal encounter with the pathogen20:29
JigsyIt's 50/50.20:29
JigsyHalf take it seriously, the other half don't give a shit.20:29
JigsyYou'd be amazed how many people I walk past no wearing facemasks.20:29
Jigsynot*20:29
de-factointeresting20:30
de-factowell that seems to be a phenomena in most European countries according to the incidence at least the behavior of some part of the population must have permitted an increase20:32
de-factohere in Germany outdoors almost noone seems to wear masks, even on populated shopping streets, but inside stores mask wearing is mandatory and i think compliance to that is near 100%. I am not sure about public transport (its required there too) because i dont use that20:34
de-factoto be honest i did not feel comfortable on crowded shopping streets, so i did wear an FFP3 mask there20:37
de-factoa good thing is much less people do smoke and a lot more people go for a run or do sports20:38
de-factoor just sunbathing on good weather20:39
de-factoits was quite common to see people jogging being completely out of breath (hence not used to it yet), now most of them seem to have improved their condition20:41
de-factobtw quite neat website showing maps of reproduction numbers http://metrics.covid19-analysis.org/20:53
de-facto%title http://metrics.covid19-analysis.org/20:53
Brainstormde-facto: From metrics.covid19-analysis.org: error parsing title ('NoneType' object has no attribute 'string')20:53
de-factohmm20:53
de-facto"Visualizing COVID-19's Effective Reproduction Number (Rt)"20:53
LjLBoris Johnson addressing the nation now at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Auq9mYxFEE21:00
LjL(notes) people are not careful enough, the virus is going exponential again21:02
LjLthe vast majority of people are still susceptible21:02
LjLa package of tougher measures for England: closing pubs etc sooner, new fines for rules breaching, 6 max indoors21:03
LjLwe shouldn't lock up the elderly and vulnerable because it's not realistic, the virus will inevitably reach them21:04
LjLit's not your own risks to take, your cough could be someone else's death knell21:04
LjLthey will put more police in the streets and deploy the army if necessary21:05
LjLunless we take action we'll need tougher measures later21:05
LjLif the virus gets out of control the NHS will be overwhelmed again, including with "long COVID" medical needs21:05
LjL(↑ ryouma)21:05
LjLif people don't respect the rights we set forth, we must reserve the right to go further21:06
LjLin so many ways we are better prepared than before, we have PPE...21:07
LjLthe hope is that by spring we'll have a vaccine and also testing that takes just minutes21:07
eckspeople compare Johnson to Trump but at least the former can form coherent sentences21:07
de-factofirst time seeing Boris speaking actually making sense with the content of his words21:07
JigsyNothing new then.21:08
LjLhe's done21:08
JigsySame bullshit.21:08
LjLJigsy, finally store employees will have to wear PPE21:09
LjLit's a simple and obvious thing but very important21:09
JigsyThey (the gov't) chose to violate international law, so he has zero credibility.21:09
LjLhow are you going to enforce *customers* wearing masks, if you aren't wearing one yourself?21:09
JigsyPeople will most likely ignore him, as they have been doing.21:09
JigsyLjL: Funnily enough, at my local, all the staff are PPE'd.21:10
Jigsylocal store*21:10
LjLwell some people aren't completely stupid i guess21:10
de-factoultimately its the behavior of the people themselves making the difference, so it makes sense to address their comprehension of the situation prior to enforcing compliance with more strict laws etc21:13
de-factoso it seems they suspect main contributions from visiting foreign households and bars21:14
de-factoor pubs21:15
de-factomakes sense i guess21:15
UlrichHit seems far fetched, would you take more risk spending a full day at work ?21:16
JigsyIf the pubs and bars close an hour earlier...21:17
Jigsy...can they open an hour earlier?21:17
de-factoare they that crowded?21:17
UlrichHand an hour is really meaningfull ? isn't it the kind of interaction you have once there ?21:18
LjLthe longer you're in the drunker you get :P21:18
LjLand then you do dumber stuff21:18
de-factoso assumed each spreader exhales particles (similar to a smoker), it depends on "spreader density" vs air volume exchange rate21:19
UlrichHLjL, :'D21:19
de-factothe longer time you spend in such an environment the more breath cycles you inhale such aerosol (or analog to that, the more your clothes would smell like smoke)21:19
UlrichHI understand the process, I'm sorry english is not my first language. I was trying to say that an hour more or less, it doesn't matter. If pub environment is dangerous, close the pubs, or force them outside21:20
de-factoso its a probabilistic statement, e.g. infection risk  ~ ( (exposure time) * (asympt. spreader density) ) / ( (air volume exchange rate) * (filtering e.g. masks) )21:21
de-factoin the most simple model that is, in reality its more complex probably21:22
de-factoafaik in airplanes they use directed laminar air streams to "guide" aerosol from top to bottom hence minimize their spread radius sideways etc21:29
de-factolabs use similar concepts i think21:30
de-factois it allowed to smoke indoors in pubs in UK?21:31
de-factojust curious21:31
ryoumawho has ppe? --- 12:05 <LjL> if the virus gets out of control the NHS will be overwhelmed again, including with "long COVID" medical needs 12:05 <LjL> (↑ ryouma) 12:06 <LjL> if people don't respect the rights we set forth, we must reserve the right to go further 12:07 <LjL> in so many ways we are better prepared than before, we have PPE... 22:02
ryoumathere is still a possibility (already implemented in nhs clinics) that uk will gaslight long covid at best.  this will lead to those who have it getting in some cases not returning to the nhs because it did not help or it made it significantly worse (contraindicated exercise, impact of having to go).  there is also a possibility that that will be described as progress ("they got better because they did not return").22:07
ryouma  in any case there is a possibility that long covid will be placed as low priority.  --- 13:02 <ryouma> who has ppe? --- 12:05 <LjL> if the virus gets out of control the NHS will be overwhelmed again, including with "long COVID" medical needs22:07
ryoumas/getting//22:07
ryoumai am being conservative in describing this22:07
ryouma(add to the list various random treatments shoved down their throats like antidepressants)22:11

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