zini[m] | however it is possible to have a public covid19 room and then like an inter circle covid19 room | 00:00 |
---|---|---|
ryouma | (and i am still waking up) | 00:00 |
iphony | ryouma: you in japan? | 00:00 |
zini[m] | which ive seen on a few matrix rooms, where most of the active ppl are in teh inner circle room | 00:00 |
ryouma | iphony: no, my nick is just a historical figure | 00:01 |
iphony | nick sounds japanese | 00:01 |
iphony | now is morning in japan | 00:01 |
ryouma | circadian diseases exist | 00:02 |
ryouma | and it can take many many hours to wake up in some cases regardless of circadian factors | 00:02 |
iphony | trying to think of circadian disease.. | 00:03 |
IndoAnon | gotta sleep c u next time. | 00:03 |
LjL | zini[m], TLS is an entirely different thing from E2E encryption (in terms of what it's meant to accomplish, although it's still encryption technically), and i am also connected to freenode using TLS, which is not mandatory, but highly encouraged, so no real difference there. | 00:03 |
ryouma | my namesake sort of kind of basically ended feudalism. i'm not a fan of samurai. | 00:03 |
LjL | zini[m], well that sounds like something that happens on IRC sometimes with "operators-only" channel and that i tend to dislike as in my experience it has been detrimental to the whole experience. | 00:04 |
iphony | ryouma: but lot of great movies with whats his name | 00:04 |
zini[m] | oh good that TLS works with freenode! | 00:05 |
ryouma | well they make for good fiction | 00:05 |
ryouma | and historical fiction | 00:05 |
iphony | Kurosawa | 00:05 |
ryouma | fun little story: "In a definitive episode, Ryōma planned to assassinate Katsu Kaishū (1823–99), a high-ranking shogunate official, but wound up working for him after the two met. Katsu, who captained the first Japanese steamer to cross the Pacific, influenced Ryōma into seeing the necessity for Japan to learn from other countries rather than simply take a hostile, hardline stance. Recognizing the young man’s | 00:08 |
ryouma | talents, he persuaded Ryōma to use his abilities to help build up Japan’s fledgling navy." | 00:08 |
ryouma | sort of a ben franklin character | 00:08 |
iphony | is that where chicken katsu comes from? | 00:10 |
iphony | right the Meiji Period? | 00:11 |
ryouma | there are a lot of homonyms in japanese. katsu means that guy's name (he is at least as interesting as ryouma, but ryouma is more popular in japan), cutlet (from the english), or "to win" | 00:11 |
ryouma | just before meiji, called bakumatsu | 00:11 |
ryouma | there is ryouma toilet paper | 00:11 |
ryouma | he's like ben franklin culturally too | 00:11 |
iphony | you spent some time in japan? | 00:12 |
ryouma | yes a bit | 00:12 |
ryouma | basically perry (us commodore/admiral) took ships to japan to demand trade and the whole country kind of exploded | 00:13 |
ryouma | 200y reign of tokugawas ended | 00:14 |
iphony | heard that never understood why 1 ship would do that | 00:16 |
ryouma | it was a bunch of ships, called black ships | 00:17 |
ryouma | japan had seen nothing like them | 00:17 |
ryouma | it is just like those movies where flying saucers hover over every city | 00:17 |
ryouma | superior tech all of a sudden | 00:17 |
ryouma | and china had just been colonized, and japan needed to prevent that, and had little to prevent it | 00:18 |
ryouma | and there were longstanding arguments over shogunate vs. emperor and foreigners vs. isolatgion | 00:18 |
ryouma | so, explosion, complex like the french revolusion | 00:19 |
ryouma | and ryouma contributed to the constitution | 00:20 |
ryouma | so just a historical figure for fun | 00:23 |
iphony | sometimes feudalism doesn't seem so bad, compared to 'the free market' | 00:25 |
iphony | watched a 6 part series on capitalism, learned about Hayek and Milton Freeman vs. Keynes, etc | 00:26 |
ryouma | my typing and thinking have greatly exceeded what i had intended. i have little executive function. so engaging was a mistake, and my answers probably not what i would have said if i were awake and able to type and think more. | 00:39 |
rmonten[m] | Hi | 01:00 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +11614 cases (now 32.2 million), +367 deaths (now 981786) since an hour ago — Colombia: +6731 cases (now 784268), +176 deaths (now 24746) since 23 hours ago — US: +3769 cases (now 7.1 million), +165 deaths (now 206503) since an hour ago — Cyprus: +36 cases (now 1654) since a day ago | 01:06 |
LjL | sigh https://np.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/iyfw57/you_are_not_listening_fauci_tells_sen_rand_paul/g6d9zu0/ | 02:23 |
LjL | "i don't see people being forced to add air filtration systems, so it probably isn't airborne" | 02:23 |
LjL | same as "i don't see masks being enforced so they are probably not needed or effective" a few months ago | 02:23 |
LjL | and this sounds like a reasonable individual | 02:23 |
LjL | yet, so flawed | 02:23 |
LjL | i could point them to a half-assed study that says YES, it would be good to add filtration systems to all HVAC in stores etc | 02:24 |
LjL | but what's the point | 02:24 |
LjL | i'd just be told "it's someone's opinion in a preprint" | 02:24 |
LjL | it's not the ALMIGHTY GOVERNMENT ENFORCING IT | 02:24 |
LjL | the argument being, since they aren't enforcing it, there's probably no reason to enforce it | 02:24 |
LjL | only a slight catch 22 there but it's perhaps hard to see | 02:24 |
LjL | (also who knows where that study i have in mind is, unless i added it to the list, which i probably didn't because it didn't seem groundbreaking) | 02:25 |
ryouma | the government is not-enforcing a whole lot of measures. does that mean ... oh forget it | 02:28 |
ryouma | maybe the virus is different in every political jurisdiction? | 02:29 |
LjL | meanwhile i feel pretty crappy | 02:32 |
LjL | it's most likely just one of my usual "mini-colds" but the thought it might not be doesn't help | 02:32 |
ryouma | do you get those without any human contact for long time? | 02:35 |
LjL | well i always have some human contact, but outside of my family, yeah, i get them pretty repeatedly and they always feel similar | 02:35 |
LjL | some general "not everything is the way it should be", then i had stomach cramps, then suddenly i realized i was feeling weak, like vaguely sore muscles or a sensation they want to be shaking inside, and like i want to drop on the couch and stop moving | 02:36 |
ryouma | so could be reactivated virus or non-virus | 02:36 |
LjL | vaguely weird tingly feeling in the nose | 02:37 |
LjL | (not usually relieved by antihistamine) | 02:37 |
LjL | and it just feels... bad. the symptoms as i just described them don't seem like anything special, well, they aren't, but it's exhausting and it happens too often for my liking | 02:37 |
LjL | also when i had this usually a cold sore would often pop up, which makes me feel worse | 02:37 |
LjL | but now i take acyclovir in advance when i realize i'm feeling like this | 02:38 |
LjL | also i took a paracetamol but it's not helping as much as i hoped | 02:38 |
ryouma | could lysine be useful? | 02:38 |
LjL | no, i tried it for a while, did nothing | 02:38 |
LjL | i've also been taking some generic multivitamin lately | 02:39 |
LjL | plus these things always tend to spike my tinnitus, which is also unpleasant | 02:39 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +33744 cases (now 32.2 million), +1545 deaths (now 983331) since 2 hours ago — Argentina: +12625 cases (now 664799), +424 deaths (now 14376) since 20 hours ago — Bahamas: +151 cases (now 3618), +3 deaths (now 80) since 20 hours ago — Peru: +6149 cases (now 782695), +284 deaths (now 31870) since 20 hours ago | 03:37 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Myanmar: +650 cases (now 7827), +4 deaths (now 133) since 13 hours ago — France: +3268 cases (now 494453) since 32 minutes ago — World: +1399 cases (now 32.2 million), +28 deaths (now 983359) since 37 minutes ago — Paraguay: +743 cases (now 35571), +22 deaths (now 727) since 21 hours ago | 04:07 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: As Their Numbers Grow, COVID-19 “Long Haulers” Stump Experts (84 votes) | https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771111 | https://redd.it/iyd59q | 04:24 |
ryouma | just going from the title but i am not liking the rhetorical transition from "exist" to "stump experts" | 04:29 |
ryouma | jama timed out, then refresh and now it is a black page that says ok | 04:32 |
LjL | "An intriguing idea is taking shape. During the July webinar, Fauci noted that some long haulers’ symptoms like brain fog and fatigue are “highly suggestive” of myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS)." | 04:40 |
ryouma | that quote might be the first time fauci has done anything useful for m.e. | 04:42 |
ryouma | a key point about m.e. and long covid not often mentioned is that m.e. is known to occur after certain viruses. and that is why the probability that what /looks/ like m.e. is m.e. is significantly higher. also the presence of pem/par/pene. so scientists want to do prospective studies. m.e. knowledge can transfer over to long covid. | 04:47 |
LjL | the article does mention that | 04:47 |
ryouma | oh good | 04:47 |
LjL | i think it's not horribly written | 04:47 |
LjL | ryouma, maybe you can read it here https://web.archive.org/web/20200924023004/https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771111 | 04:48 |
ryouma | my browsers hate that one too | 04:52 |
LjL | well, there's nothing groundbreaking init | 04:54 |
LjL | they mention the sometimes-posited EBV connection | 04:54 |
LjL | i believe it's also sometimes-discredited, but whatever | 04:54 |
ryouma | yeah | 04:54 |
LjL | they mention a few studies showing that people *have* these "long" symptoms, which is nice for when you tell people about this and they're like "but it's just one study! it's probably few people who really have this!" | 04:55 |
LjL | bringing home that this is *common* without making people mad at you is tricky | 04:55 |
ryouma | you get resistance? | 04:56 |
LjL | probably based on denial | 04:56 |
ryouma | yeah | 04:56 |
LjL | they know i'm probably right but they don't want to think that *in addition* to the risk of dying from COVID, even if they don't die, they may remain disabled | 04:56 |
LjL | so they yell at me | 04:56 |
LjL | this happened with my parents and a friend or two | 04:56 |
ryouma | it is needed for policymakers to get this for a variety of reasons, not least of which is that natural herd immunity = more long covid | 04:56 |
LjL | maybe there should be an amount of scare from TV and other media and not just LjL | 04:57 |
ryouma | that kind of thing is extremely familiar to anybody with chronic diseases, especially certain ones | 04:57 |
ryouma | heh | 04:58 |
LjL | they should say, "everyone, we realize now that aside from the risk of dying, if you get COVID, chances are you'll have symptoms for months, and possibly forever. your best bet is to NOT get COVID. if you get it, either you or someone you know will have their lives ruined" | 04:58 |
LjL | this is pretty bleak but it has the fact of being true on its side | 04:58 |
ryouma | yes | 04:58 |
ryouma | there are a lot of articles about long covid but we need a lot more research on it | 04:59 |
LjL | many articles, yes, but what i feel there may not be is the understanding that this is not something that IF you get covid, then there is a SMALL CHANCE you'll not fully recover | 04:59 |
LjL | but rather that this is more like the norm than the exception | 04:59 |
LjL | or at least, in a household, since you can pretty much take for granted that if one of them gets them all of them will, at least one person will deal with long-term symptoms | 05:00 |
LjL | maybe people would go to dance clubs a little less if we broke past their denial barrier about this | 05:00 |
LjL | maybe not | 05:00 |
ryouma | at least that it is quite common | 05:00 |
LjL | my body craves sleep now. 'night | 05:02 |
ryouma | gn | 05:02 |
ryouma | LjL: for when you get back on, you could take a look at the norwegian study on m.e. which has legible charts on what those with severe m.e. can and cannot do. if anybody thinks long covid is just being tired those charts will shock the living !@#$ @!#$ !@#$! out of them. google translate norwegian to english is pretty good. | 05:11 |
ryouma | http://www.me-foreningen.info/ressurser/me-foreningens-rapporter/de-sykeste-me-pasientene/?fbclid=IwAR12OMocTfmfuJWQOxhlLaSUhalpNCv4x51wsG1fksqDly5WDVX58I9oeRo | 05:13 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: ‘You are not listening,’ Fauci tells Sen. Rand Paul during a Senate hearing on the coronavirus (10047 votes) | https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/23/you-are-not-listening-fauci-tells-rand-paul-during-senate-hearing.html | https://redd.it/iyfw57 | 06:55 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +11852 cases (now 32.2 million), +134 deaths (now 983493) since 3 hours ago — Ukraine: +3276 cases (now 189488), +56 deaths (now 3784) since 3 hours ago — India: +2334 cases (now 5.7 million) since 7 hours ago — St Martin, France: +37 cases (now 367), +2 deaths (now 8) since 9 days ago | 07:08 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Study of over 50,000 volunteers in China shows Coronavac safety (81 votes) | https://www.saopaulo.sp.gov.br/noticias-coronavirus/estudo-com-mais-de-50-mil-voluntarios-na-china-mostra-seguranca-da-coronavac/ | https://redd.it/iynzls | 07:13 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Asymptomatic reinfection in two healthcare workers from India with genetically distinct SARS-CoV-2 (80 votes) | https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1451/5910388 | https://redd.it/iyhpkc | 07:25 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Scotland, United Kingdom: +486 cases (now 25495), +2 deaths (now 2508) since a day ago — Maharashtra, India: +18390 cases (now 1.2 million), +392 deaths (now 33407) since a day ago — Noord-Brabant, Netherlands: +316 cases (now 15251), +2 deaths (now 1554) since a day ago — Caldas, Colombia: +223 cases (now 5117), +7 deaths (now 114) since a day ago | 07:38 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Georgia: +259 cases (now 4399) since 22 hours ago — World: +2803 cases (now 32.2 million), +22 deaths (now 983516) since an hour ago — Israel: +1642 cases (now 206332), +10 deaths (now 1335) since 9 hours ago — Hungary: +750 cases (now 21200), +7 deaths (now 709) since 22 hours ago | 08:53 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Lithuania: +138 cases (now 4070), +2 deaths (now 89) since 23 hours ago — World: +512 cases (now 32.2 million), +5 deaths (now 983521) since 38 minutes ago — Armenia: +374 cases (now 48251), +3 deaths (now 945) since a day ago | 09:23 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Slovakia: +360 cases (now 7629) since a day ago — World: +7245 cases (now 32.2 million), +149 deaths (now 983670) since an hour ago — Russia: +6595 cases (now 1.1 million), +149 deaths (now 19948) since a day ago — Croatia: +232 cases (now 15572), +4 deaths (now 261) since a day ago | 10:23 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Indonesia: +4634 cases (now 262022), +128 deaths (now 10105) since a day ago — World: +7655 cases (now 32.2 million), +170 deaths (now 983840) since 43 minutes ago — Philippines: +2164 cases (now 296755), +36 deaths (now 5127) since 22 hours ago — Austria: +832 cases (now 40816), +6 deaths (now 783) since a day ago | 10:53 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Poland: +1136 cases (now 82809), +25 deaths (now 2369) since 23 hours ago — World: +7393 cases (now 32.2 million), +76 deaths (now 983916) since an hour ago — India: +4679 cases (now 5.7 million), +31 deaths (now 91204) since 5 hours ago — US: +584 cases (now 7.1 million), +5 deaths (now 206598) since 8 hours ago | 11:53 |
Jigsy | %cases world | 15:26 |
Brainstorm | Jigsy: In World, there have been 32.3 million confirmed cases (0.4% of the population) and 984335 deaths (3.1% of cases) as of 9 minutes ago. 620.8 million tests were performed (5.2% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.2% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 4.0% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=World for time series data. | 15:26 |
Jigsy | %cases UK | 15:26 |
Jigsy | %cases UK | 15:28 |
Brainstorm | Jigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 409729 confirmed cases (0.6% of the population) and 45712 deaths (11.2% of cases) as of 8 minutes ago. 22.6 million tests were performed (1.8% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 15:28 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Virologist Drosten: "The pandemic will only really start now" (80 votes) | https://www.interview-welt.de/2020/09/24/virologe-drosten-die-pandemie-wird-jetzt-erst-richtig-losgehen/ | https://redd.it/iyvbd3 | 15:28 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Missouri governor, opponent of mandatory masks, has COVID-19 (10034 votes) | https://www.counton2.com/news/national-news/missouri-governor-opponent-of-mandatory-masks-has-covid-19/ | https://redd.it/iyjf69 | 15:46 |
aswe323 | hi, from israel here, we about to go into full lockdown. any advice? | 16:18 |
genera | keep your exercise up? | 16:19 |
genera | stay outside for vitamin-d ? | 16:19 |
aswe323 | i mean... sure :P | 16:20 |
aswe323 | %cases israel | 16:20 |
Brainstorm | aswe323: In Israel, there have been 206332 confirmed cases (2.2% of the population) and 1335 deaths (0.6% of cases) as of 7 hours ago. 3.3 million tests were performed (6.3% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.2% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 0.9% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Israel for time series data. | 16:20 |
aswe323 | 2.2% of a country got infected. that bad right? | 16:20 |
genera | 6% positivity rate is bad too | 16:22 |
aswe323 | %cases australia | 16:23 |
Brainstorm | aswe323: In Australia, there have been 26980 confirmed cases (0.1% of the population) and 861 deaths (3.2% of cases) as of 12 hours ago. 7.4 million tests were performed (0.4% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.9% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.4% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Australia for time series data. | 16:23 |
aswe323 | %germany | 16:24 |
aswe323 | %cases germany | 16:24 |
Brainstorm | aswe323: In Germany, there have been 279549 confirmed cases (0.3% of the population) and 9509 deaths (3.4% of cases) as of 7 minutes ago. 15.6 million tests were performed (1.8% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.6% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data. | 16:24 |
aswe323 | should we consider population to tests precetnage? | 16:24 |
de-facto | when the "dance with the tiger" did to go well and incidence increased to such a high level (like in Israel), thb i would feel more comfortable when the prevalence is "hit by a hammer" i.e. wrestled down with a full blown lockdown | 16:32 |
de-facto | so from that perspective its a good thing that effective actions are implemented to address the problem | 16:33 |
aswe323 | yup | 16:33 |
aswe323 | couldnt aggre more | 16:34 |
de-facto | maybe everyone should have a contact diary to be able to warn contacts in case of positive tests | 16:36 |
matankribus | sup | 16:40 |
matankribus | btw where does the bot get the info? | 16:48 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +60318 cases (now 32.3 million), +1004 deaths (now 984920) since 5 hours ago — India: +28547 cases (now 5.8 million), +231 deaths (now 91435) since 5 hours ago — US: +5132 cases (now 7.1 million), +203 deaths (now 206801) since 5 hours ago — Iraq: +4471 cases (now 337106), +45 deaths (now 8799) since a day ago | 16:50 |
de-facto | matankribus, i think https://offloop.net/covid19/ | 17:38 |
de-facto | not sure though | 17:38 |
LjL | Yes | 18:03 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Jordan: +549 cases (now 6591), +1 deaths (now 36) since a day ago — World: +10417 cases (now 32.3 million), +164 deaths (now 985084) since an hour ago — US: +4047 cases (now 7.1 million), +105 deaths (now 206906) since an hour ago — Italy: +1786 cases (now 304323), +23 deaths (now 35781) since a day ago | 18:20 |
Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +5377 cases (now 416363) since 15 minutes ago — World: +8440 cases (now 32.3 million), +116 deaths (now 985200) since 17 minutes ago — Turkey: +1721 cases (now 309790), +74 deaths (now 7785) since 23 hours ago — Namibia: +77 cases (now 10740), +2 deaths (now 119) since 18 hours ago | 18:35 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: 'Close to 100% accuracy': Helsinki airport uses sniffer dogs to detect Covid (10093 votes) | https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/24/close-to-100-accuracy-airport-enlists-sniffer-dogs-to-test-for-covid-19 | https://redd.it/iyv7ev | 18:59 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: COVID-19 can affect the heart (83 votes) | https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/09/23/science.abe2813 | https://redd.it/iyyi2q | 19:23 |
LjL | i thought we kind of knew | 19:24 |
bin_bash | yeah... | 19:28 |
bin_bash | 2/3 of people with mild symptoms had lasting heart damage in at least 1 study | 19:28 |
Jigsy | %cases UK | 20:07 |
Brainstorm | Jigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 416363 confirmed cases (0.6% of the population) and 41902 deaths (10.1% of cases) as of 3 minutes ago. 22.6 million tests were performed (1.8% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 20:07 |
Jigsy | Heh. | 20:07 |
Jigsy | 7K? | 20:07 |
Jigsy | (Since I called it earlier, anyway.) | 20:08 |
rmonten[m] | Herd immunity (44% - 66%) is claimed to have been obtained in Manaus, Brazil at the cost of 250 deaths/100k population. I haven't been keeping up with legit claims of herd immunity, does anybody know how this compares to other places? | 20:09 |
rmonten[m] | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.16.20194787v1.full.pdf+html | 20:09 |
LjL | Jigsy, it's +5377 today i believe | 20:11 |
LjL | rmonten[m], i don't know of any other places that are thought to have obtained herd immunity | 20:11 |
tinwhiskers | rmonten[m]: more likely to be distorted reality for political gains | 20:11 |
LjL | hard-hit places like Lombardy and Madrid only still have 10%ish | 20:11 |
LjL | (according to antibody surveys) | 20:11 |
Jigsy | 6,634... | 20:12 |
Jigsy | Close enough. | 20:12 |
LjL | Jigsy, okay, the UK no longer publishes one daily update but instead it does several, so i am never really sure | 20:12 |
rmonten[m] | tinwhiskers: you mean the study could have been manipulated? | 20:12 |
tinwhiskers | rmonten[m]: also, 44% is an extremely low estimate for obtaining herd immunity for covid. It's more likely 66%-80%. | 20:13 |
tinwhiskers | rmonten[m]: there were some antibody tests done in New York I think that people were making all sorts of claims about reaching herd immunity over. The tests were bad, but they may not have been manipulated. They were certainly used for political gain. | 20:14 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, but to be fair i don't think an actual paper was ever published, or if it was, it was much later...? it was more number-boasting in press releases | 20:16 |
rmonten[m] | tinwhiskers: sure 44% is low. They cite heterogeneous exposure and decay of antibody prevalence as reasons it would be sufficient. My guess would be that the community's behavior has so drastically changed that "R_0" is not really the relevant number anymore | 20:17 |
tinwhiskers | LjL: maybe they didn't reach past preprint stage. I don't recall. The point is they don't have to be manipulated to be wrong or used for political gain. | 20:18 |
rmonten[m] | I said that wrong, they use decay of antibodies to guess that prevalence had been higher during the peak. | 20:18 |
IndoAnon | rmonten[m]: It's quite speculative | 20:20 |
LjL | rmonten[m], that's perplexing. first, i don't think we know enough about the decay of antibodies to make such an assessment. second, if antibodies have gone away in some people, chances are those people will be vulnerable again (not necessarily: T cells, and so on, but, that they're safe is just not an assumption one can make) | 20:21 |
LjL | herd immunity works if all those people are actually immune, not just if they had COVID at some point but can get it again now | 20:21 |
Apercu | herd immunity needs to go away as a topic IMO | 20:22 |
LjL | Herd immunity is what a widely-deployed vaccine achieved, so I really hope it doesn't go away | 20:22 |
Apercu | I mean as a tactic to control CV | 20:22 |
tinwhiskers | LjL++ | 20:22 |
Apercu | LjL: what determines mutations of virus types? or is there anything within a type that is common re: mutation? | 20:24 |
rmonten[m] | LjL: I agree, their explanations for why 44% points to herd immunity (in the past) is a stretch, but I was wondering if this order of magnitude had popped up in other research as well. One reason you may hope so is T-cells indeed. | 20:24 |
tinwhiskers | it sounds like quite an outlier result to me, but at some stage *somewhere* has to get there first, so you never know I guess. Still, if the conclusion is based on 44% then, no, they have not reached herd immunity. | 20:25 |
Apercu | I wonder what level annual H1N1 vaccinations ever get to a level that protects others, or say in the US what percentage get Vax for it usually | 20:25 |
LjL | Apercu, "types" isn't really a specific term. what might meaningfully distinguish strains of SARS-COV-2 is if some mutations they have (note that mutations that change little-to-nothing are happening all the time) cause visible differences in the phenotype, i.e. the virus is much more or much less aggressive, or worse, the virus has changed enough that is no longer vulnerable to previous antibodies or vaccines | 20:25 |
Apercu | LjL: yes, believe I read that is why H1N1 in 1918 was more deadly, in part mutation to being less agressive | 20:27 |
Apercu | however, seems like if viruses operated like antibiotics-resistance, they'd be more like to mutate to More deadly forms rather than Less | 20:29 |
tinwhiskers | the most successful viruses are those that persist the most, not kill the most. | 20:30 |
Apercu | vs Bacteria? | 20:31 |
tinwhiskers | the same applies | 20:31 |
Apercu | bacteria mutate and become more difficult to control, at least Staph Aureus does | 20:32 |
tinwhiskers | err... yeah | 20:32 |
iz | for either, killing is like burning out the engine of your mobile home | 20:32 |
tinwhiskers | extremely deadly viruses/bacteria don't tend to do as well as more benign ones because they don't spread as well due to killing their host | 20:33 |
tinwhiskers | death is more of a byproduct of the spread than the "aim" | 20:33 |
iz | if you want to freak yourself out, research how bacteria is used to create fuel and which bacteria they use for it | 20:33 |
iz | the gene added to make fuel isn't useful for the bacteria, so it will get evolved out very quickly.. so they need to tie it to antibiotic resistance and they keep the bacteria in a antibiotic soup | 20:34 |
LjL | Apercu, bacteria mutate that way because they develop resistance to antibiotics | 20:36 |
LjL | resistance to antivirals is also possible, but rare, mainly i think because we barely have any decent antivirals | 20:36 |
LjL | it took 30 years to get to a point where the right cocktail of balanced antivirals kinda sorta keeps HIV under control | 20:36 |
Apercu | LjL: flu vaccinations don't -> mutations? | 20:36 |
LjL | Apercu, the flu mutates substantially every year. every year, we develop a new, different vaccine for it (well, multiple) | 20:37 |
LjL | the flu is special that way though, it's not a characteristic of all viruses | 20:37 |
iz | bacteria are more "alive" than viruses are | 20:37 |
tinwhiskers | The mutations are happening anyway. Antibiotics don't cause mutations. These things have a high rate of mutation so tend to find a way around things. | 20:37 |
tinwhiskers | so no, vaccinations do not cause mutations! | 20:37 |
iz | the problem w/ antibiotics and bacteria mutation is when not enough antibiotics is used | 20:38 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, right, i misspoke, but i simply meant that antibiotics use can cause mutations that become prevalent when they otherwise wouldn't | 20:38 |
LjL | that's a longer sentence to write | 20:38 |
Apercu | were the SARS antibodies protective long term? | 20:41 |
LjL | i don't know. probably not many people got exposed to SARS twice... | 20:42 |
iz | yeah, it never got tested w/ sars or mers, b/c those outbreaks were quashed quickly enough | 20:45 |
genera | i thought MERS is still there? | 20:46 |
iz | is it? i don't think so | 20:48 |
iz | oh, i guess it is | 20:48 |
iz | https://www.who.int/csr/don/31-january-2020-mers-united-arab-emirates/en/ | 20:49 |
LjL | MERS sometimes does pop up | 20:49 |
tinwhiskers | Among 176 patients who had had severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), SARS-specific antibodies were maintained for an average of 2 years, and significant reduction of immunoglobulin G–positive percentage and titers occurred in the third year. Thus, SARS patients might be susceptible to reinfection >3 years after initial exposure. | 20:50 |
tinwhiskers | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2851497/ | 20:50 |
Apercu | but nothing can be implied between corona viruses re: antibody duration? | 20:52 |
tinwhiskers | not really, no | 20:52 |
tinwhiskers | at this stage I think we can say the average period of immunity is probably at least 4 months | 20:53 |
tinwhiskers | and let's face it, 4 months isn't *all that* terrible. Often (usually?) vaccinations invoke a longer immunity than natural infections so I think it's entirely reasonable to think the early vaccines will give us 4-6+ months of immunity. I can take 3 boosters a year for the next few years if that means the difference between being able to travel and have a normal life or not. | 20:57 |
dTal | That 3-year strong immunity thing is interesting - is that specific to SARS, or is that a common duration? | 21:18 |
tinwhiskers | SARS specific | 21:19 |
dTal | What determines the different durations of immunity? | 21:20 |
tinwhiskers | the coronaviruses associated with the common cold are much shorter duration | 21:20 |
tinwhiskers | Yuri*who says he thinks immunity will only be in the order of 4 months. | 21:20 |
dTal | Actually I retract my question as the answer will definitely be too complicated to summarize | 21:20 |
tinwhiskers | I've placed my money on it being much closer to SARS, but then he's the expert. | 21:21 |
tinwhiskers | as he keeps reminding us :-) | 21:21 |
dTal | Does the body in some sense "decide" how long to keep "immunoglobulin G–positive percentage and titers"? | 21:21 |
dTal | There must be a metabolic cost to maintaining immunity, or we'd do it forever | 21:22 |
tinwhiskers | I have no idea why some last for a shorter period. | 21:22 |
LjL | dTal, or perhaps an autoimmune-risk cost | 21:23 |
dTal | Good point | 21:24 |
iz | i thought it was like.. just the surface of the virus changes slightly over time? | 21:24 |
dTal | 3 years strikes me as an interesting duration to "choose" - it's a sort of "ride out the pandemic" duration | 21:24 |
tinwhiskers | iz: no this is about neutralising antibodies over time to the same strain of virus | 21:25 |
dTal | and the precipitous drop implies some sort of "switch" rather than a half-life | 21:25 |
dTal | it has me wondering is SARS triggered some sort of specific pandemic-response adaptation | 21:25 |
dTal | everyone who got SARS got pretty sick, right? | 21:26 |
dTal | whereas Covid doesn't hit most people very hard at all | 21:26 |
tinwhiskers | I think so | 21:26 |
dTal | hence the problem with spreading | 21:27 |
tinwhiskers | so, now is the time to place your bets. Those who betted on 4 months may be about to win or lose. Last bets please. | 21:28 |
iz | tinwhiskers: oh, i guess antigen tests are actually looking for the antibodies too | 21:28 |
iz | so the body just stops making antibodies it's learned to make after some amount of time? | 21:29 |
tinwhiskers | oh, were those antigen tests? right. my bad. | 21:29 |
dTal | Well I'll hedge and plump for 4 months for most people, maybe longer in severe cases :p | 21:29 |
iz | well, i just meant it to clairfy my minconception that the antibodies were still there, they just weren't effective to what was in the wild | 21:30 |
tinwhiskers | you can remember how to make the antitbodies for some time after they stop being present in your blood, but it takes a while to ramp up production. | 21:30 |
dTal | iz: well that happens too, with some viruses | 21:30 |
iz | oh.. so your body can remember how to make them, but it just doesn't keep them constantly in your system if the virus hasn't been present for awhile? | 21:33 |
iz | that makes sense.. which is why antigen tests work | 21:34 |
AndreasKunstmann | https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/09/23/pers-s23.html | 21:35 |
ryouma | is it true that humans need uv light and not just d3? e.g. to activate d3 or so? e.g. if you are getting basically zero sun? if so are there reliable devices for producing safe versions and levels of it? | 22:13 |
ryouma | i am referring to bedridden vulnerables here, not normal lockdowned folk | 22:13 |
tinwhiskers | I thought supplements could entirely replace that, aside from the mental health issues. | 22:14 |
Apercu | ryouma: ever read merck manual? I consider the go-to source | 22:15 |
ryouma | i used to have it and still do but can't physically read it. is it online? | 22:17 |
ryouma | what mental health issues? | 22:17 |
ryouma | i hav eheard from a physician that "it is thought that there is something else in sunlight" but no specifics and in the ohter channel there was a claim that some uv is needed FOR d3, is all | 22:18 |
Apercu | yes there is a professional and a non-professional edition online | 22:18 |
ryouma | or rahter that the body uses uv for more than d3 | 22:19 |
ryouma | for the first claim | 22:19 |
tinwhiskers | it also increases serotonin levels | 22:24 |
Apercu | Vitamin D deficiency is common and results from inadequate exposure to sunlight and inadequate dietary intake (usually occurring together) and/or from chronic kidney disease. | 22:25 |
Apercu | The deficiency can cause muscle aches and weakness, bone pain, and osteomalacia. | 22:25 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, is that the UV though? the body also has light sensor neurons (which use the eyes, but are separate from the optical nerves) to determine whether it's day or night and do the needful | 22:25 |
tinwhiskers | yeah, that's light I think, not UV per se | 22:26 |
Apercu | so, doubtful anything different about sunlight pertaining to cholecalcefirol | 22:26 |
Apercu | sunlight might have an effect on your mood, and sleep patterns | 22:26 |
LjL | tidbid: blind people, depending on how their blindness happened, can either be able to recognize light from dark (they may have it as a general feeling, or at least their body may react appropriately), or conversely if they don't, they will often have non-24h sleep syndromes | 22:27 |
Jigsy | I guess that answers a question about a scene in a comedy I saw. | 22:34 |
Jigsy | "So I was shaving in front of the mirror--" "Wait, you're blind, why do you shave in front of the mirror?" "It's where the good light is." | 22:34 |
dTal | I don't get it | 22:51 |
LjL | oh so it's not just me | 22:54 |
ryouma | the word probably can refer to some who can use a mirror usefully | 22:55 |
LjL | i have a better joke | 22:56 |
LjL | child: "dad, put on your mask!" | 22:57 |
LjL | dad: "sure, but later, i'm eating now" | 22:57 |
LjL | later: "dad, come on, mom said to put on your mask!" | 22:57 |
LjL | dad: "okay but i'm drinking now" | 22:57 |
LjL | child: "look dad, mom said if you refused to put it on, to remind you about Berlusconi" | 22:57 |
LjL | dad: "how so? he recovered from his COVID" | 22:58 |
LjL | child: "yes, but he's divorced" | 22:58 |
dTal | Haha | 23:09 |
LjL | since bots in other channels are working better than mine | 23:46 |
LjL | 18<29CarlSagan_18> [7Ars Technica - Science] Trump may reject FDA’s stricter regulations for COVID-19 vaccine https://arstechnica.com/?p=1709533 2020-09-24T20:33:41 | 23:46 |
LjL | 18<29CarlSagan_18> [2NYT - Science] Novavax Enters Final Stage of Coronavirus Vaccine Trials https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/health/covid-19-vaccine-novavax.html 2020-09-24T20:53:13 | 23:46 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Upper respiratory viral load in asymptomatic individuals and mildly symptomatic patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection (80 votes) | https://thorax.bmj.com/content/early/2020/08/28/thoraxjnl-2020-215042 | https://redd.it/iywbld | 23:49 |
Brainstorm | Updates for World: +148495 cases (now 32.5 million), +2414 deaths (now 987614) since 5 hours ago — India: +50359 cases (now 5.8 million), +882 deaths (now 92317) since 7 hours ago — Brazil: +29922 cases (now 4.7 million), +743 deaths (now 139808) since 20 hours ago — US: +25365 cases (now 7.2 million), +384 deaths (now 207290) since 5 hours ago | 23:51 |
genevino | %cases germany | 23:54 |
Brainstorm | genevino: In Germany, there have been 281345 confirmed cases (0.3% of the population) and 9519 deaths (3.4% of cases) as of 7 minutes ago. 15.6 million tests were performed (1.8% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.6% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data. | 23:54 |
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