libera/##covid-19/ Thursday, 2020-09-24

zini[m]however it is possible to have a public covid19 room and then like an inter circle covid19 room00:00
ryouma(and i am still waking up)00:00
iphonyryouma: you in japan?00:00
zini[m]which ive seen on a few matrix rooms, where most of the active ppl are in teh inner circle room 00:00
ryoumaiphony: no, my nick is just a historical figure00:01
iphonynick sounds japanese00:01
iphonynow is morning in japan00:01
ryoumacircadian diseases exist00:02
ryoumaand it can take many many hours to wake up in some cases regardless of circadian factors00:02
iphonytrying to think of circadian disease..00:03
IndoAnongotta sleep c u next time.  00:03
LjLzini[m], TLS is an entirely different thing from E2E encryption (in terms of what it's meant to accomplish, although it's still encryption technically), and i am also connected to freenode using TLS, which is not mandatory, but highly encouraged, so no real difference there.00:03
ryoumamy namesake sort of kind of basically ended feudalism.  i'm not a fan of samurai.00:03
LjLzini[m], well that sounds like something that happens on IRC sometimes with "operators-only" channel and that i tend to dislike as in my experience it has been detrimental to the whole experience.00:04
iphonyryouma: but lot of great movies with whats his name00:04
zini[m]oh good that TLS works with freenode!00:05
ryoumawell they make for good fiction00:05
ryoumaand historical fiction00:05
iphonyKurosawa00:05
ryoumafun little story: "In a definitive episode, Ryōma planned to assassinate Katsu Kaishū (1823–99), a high-ranking shogunate official, but wound up working for him after the two met. Katsu, who captained the first Japanese steamer to cross the Pacific, influenced Ryōma into seeing the necessity for Japan to learn from other countries rather than simply take a hostile, hardline stance. Recognizing the young man’s00:08
ryouma talents, he persuaded Ryōma to use his abilities to help build up Japan’s fledgling navy."00:08
ryoumasort of a ben franklin character00:08
iphonyis that where chicken katsu comes from?00:10
iphonyright the Meiji Period?00:11
ryoumathere are a lot of homonyms in japanese.  katsu means that guy's name (he is at least as interesting as ryouma, but ryouma is more popular in japan), cutlet (from the english), or "to win"00:11
ryoumajust before meiji, called bakumatsu00:11
ryoumathere is ryouma toilet paper00:11
ryoumahe's like ben franklin culturally too00:11
iphonyyou spent some time in japan?00:12
ryoumayes a bit00:12
ryoumabasically perry (us commodore/admiral) took ships to japan to demand trade and the whole country kind of exploded00:13
ryouma200y reign of tokugawas ended00:14
iphonyheard that never understood why 1 ship would do that00:16
ryoumait was a bunch of ships, called black ships00:17
ryoumajapan had seen nothing like them00:17
ryoumait is just like those movies where flying saucers hover over every city00:17
ryoumasuperior tech all of a sudden00:17
ryoumaand china had just been colonized, and japan needed to prevent that, and had little to prevent it00:18
ryoumaand there were longstanding arguments over shogunate vs. emperor and foreigners vs. isolatgion00:18
ryoumaso, explosion, complex like the french revolusion00:19
ryoumaand ryouma contributed to the constitution00:20
ryoumaso just a historical figure for fun00:23
iphonysometimes feudalism doesn't seem so bad, compared to 'the free market'00:25
iphonywatched a 6 part series on capitalism, learned about Hayek and Milton Freeman vs. Keynes, etc 00:26
ryoumamy typing and thinking have greatly exceeded what i had intended.  i have little executive function.  so engaging was a mistake, and my answers probably not what i would have said if i were awake and able to type and think more.00:39
rmonten[m]Hi01:00
BrainstormUpdates for World: +11614 cases (now 32.2 million), +367 deaths (now 981786) since an hour ago — Colombia: +6731 cases (now 784268), +176 deaths (now 24746) since 23 hours ago — US: +3769 cases (now 7.1 million), +165 deaths (now 206503) since an hour ago — Cyprus: +36 cases (now 1654) since a day ago01:06
LjLsigh https://np.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/iyfw57/you_are_not_listening_fauci_tells_sen_rand_paul/g6d9zu0/02:23
LjL"i don't see people being forced to add air filtration systems, so it probably isn't airborne"02:23
LjLsame as "i don't see masks being enforced so they are probably not needed or effective" a few months ago02:23
LjLand this sounds like a reasonable individual02:23
LjLyet, so flawed02:23
LjLi could point them to a half-assed study that says YES, it would be good to add filtration systems to all HVAC in stores etc02:24
LjLbut what's the point02:24
LjLi'd just be told "it's someone's opinion in a preprint"02:24
LjLit's not the ALMIGHTY GOVERNMENT ENFORCING IT02:24
LjLthe argument being, since they aren't enforcing it, there's probably no reason to enforce it02:24
LjLonly a slight catch 22 there but it's perhaps hard to see02:24
LjL(also who knows where that study i have in mind is, unless i added it to the list, which i probably didn't because it didn't seem groundbreaking)02:25
ryoumathe government is not-enforcing a whole lot of measures.  does that mean ... oh forget it02:28
ryoumamaybe the virus is different in every political jurisdiction?02:29
LjLmeanwhile i feel pretty crappy02:32
LjLit's most likely just one of my usual "mini-colds" but the thought it might not be doesn't help02:32
ryoumado you get those without any human contact for long time?02:35
LjLwell i always have some human contact, but outside of my family, yeah, i get them pretty repeatedly and they always feel similar02:35
LjLsome general "not everything is the way it should be", then i had stomach cramps, then suddenly i realized i was feeling weak, like vaguely sore muscles or a sensation they want to be shaking inside, and like i want to drop on the couch and stop moving02:36
ryoumaso could be reactivated virus or non-virus02:36
LjLvaguely weird tingly feeling in the nose02:37
LjL(not usually relieved by antihistamine)02:37
LjLand it just feels... bad. the symptoms as i just described them don't seem like anything special, well, they aren't, but it's exhausting and it happens too often for my liking02:37
LjLalso when i had this usually a cold sore would often pop up, which makes me feel worse02:37
LjLbut now i take acyclovir in advance when i realize i'm feeling like this02:38
LjLalso i took a paracetamol but it's not helping as much as i hoped02:38
ryoumacould lysine be useful?02:38
LjLno, i tried it for a while, did nothing02:38
LjLi've also been taking some generic multivitamin lately02:39
LjLplus these things always tend to spike my tinnitus, which is also unpleasant02:39
BrainstormUpdates for World: +33744 cases (now 32.2 million), +1545 deaths (now 983331) since 2 hours ago — Argentina: +12625 cases (now 664799), +424 deaths (now 14376) since 20 hours ago — Bahamas: +151 cases (now 3618), +3 deaths (now 80) since 20 hours ago — Peru: +6149 cases (now 782695), +284 deaths (now 31870) since 20 hours ago03:37
BrainstormUpdates for Myanmar: +650 cases (now 7827), +4 deaths (now 133) since 13 hours ago — France: +3268 cases (now 494453) since 32 minutes ago — World: +1399 cases (now 32.2 million), +28 deaths (now 983359) since 37 minutes ago — Paraguay: +743 cases (now 35571), +22 deaths (now 727) since 21 hours ago04:07
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: As Their Numbers Grow, COVID-19 “Long Haulers” Stump Experts (84 votes) | https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771111 | https://redd.it/iyd59q04:24
ryoumajust going from the title but i am not liking the rhetorical transition from "exist" to "stump experts"04:29
ryoumajama timed out, then refresh and now it is a black page that says ok04:32
LjL"An intriguing idea is taking shape. During the July webinar, Fauci noted that some long haulers’ symptoms like brain fog and fatigue are “highly suggestive” of myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS)."04:40
ryoumathat quote might be the first time fauci has done anything useful for m.e.04:42
ryoumaa key point about m.e. and long covid not often mentioned is that m.e. is known to occur after certain viruses.  and that is why the probability that what /looks/ like m.e. is m.e. is significantly higher.  also the presence of pem/par/pene.  so scientists want to do prospective studies.  m.e. knowledge can transfer over to long covid.04:47
LjLthe article does mention that04:47
ryoumaoh good04:47
LjLi think it's not horribly written04:47
LjLryouma, maybe you can read it here https://web.archive.org/web/20200924023004/https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/277111104:48
ryoumamy browsers hate that one too04:52
LjLwell, there's nothing groundbreaking init04:54
LjLthey mention the sometimes-posited EBV connection04:54
LjLi believe it's also sometimes-discredited, but whatever04:54
ryoumayeah04:54
LjLthey mention a few studies showing that people *have* these "long" symptoms, which is nice for when you tell people about this and they're like "but it's just one study! it's probably few people who really have this!"04:55
LjLbringing home that this is *common* without making people mad at you is tricky04:55
ryoumayou get resistance?04:56
LjLprobably based on denial04:56
ryoumayeah04:56
LjLthey know i'm probably right but they don't want to think that *in addition* to the risk of dying from COVID, even if they don't die, they may remain disabled04:56
LjLso they yell at me04:56
LjLthis happened with my parents and a friend or two04:56
ryoumait is needed for policymakers to get this for a variety of reasons, not least of which is that natural herd immunity = more long covid04:56
LjLmaybe there should be an amount of scare from TV and other media and not just LjL04:57
ryoumathat kind of thing is extremely familiar to anybody with chronic diseases, especially certain ones04:57
ryoumaheh04:58
LjLthey should say, "everyone, we realize now that aside from the risk of dying, if you get COVID, chances are you'll have symptoms for months, and possibly forever. your best bet is to NOT get COVID. if you get it, either you or someone you know will have their lives ruined"04:58
LjLthis is pretty bleak but it has the fact of being true on its side04:58
ryoumayes04:58
ryoumathere are a lot of articles about long covid but we need a lot more research on it04:59
LjLmany articles, yes, but what i feel there may not be is the understanding that this is not something that IF you get covid, then there is a SMALL CHANCE you'll not fully recover04:59
LjLbut rather that this is more like the norm than the exception04:59
LjLor at least, in a household, since you can pretty much take for granted that if one of them gets them all of them will, at least one person will deal with long-term symptoms05:00
LjLmaybe people would go to dance clubs a little less if we broke past their denial barrier about this05:00
LjLmaybe not05:00
ryoumaat least that it is quite common05:00
LjLmy body craves sleep now. 'night05:02
ryoumagn05:02
ryoumaLjL: for when you get back on, you could take a look at the norwegian study on m.e. which has legible charts on what those with severe m.e. can and cannot do.  if anybody thinks long covid is just being tired those charts will shock the living !@#$ @!#$ !@#$! out of them.  google translate norwegian to english is pretty good.05:11
ryoumahttp://www.me-foreningen.info/ressurser/me-foreningens-rapporter/de-sykeste-me-pasientene/?fbclid=IwAR12OMocTfmfuJWQOxhlLaSUhalpNCv4x51wsG1fksqDly5WDVX58I9oeRo05:13
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: ‘You are not listening,’ Fauci tells Sen. Rand Paul during a Senate hearing on the coronavirus (10047 votes) | https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/23/you-are-not-listening-fauci-tells-rand-paul-during-senate-hearing.html | https://redd.it/iyfw5706:55
BrainstormUpdates for World: +11852 cases (now 32.2 million), +134 deaths (now 983493) since 3 hours ago — Ukraine: +3276 cases (now 189488), +56 deaths (now 3784) since 3 hours ago — India: +2334 cases (now 5.7 million) since 7 hours ago — St Martin, France: +37 cases (now 367), +2 deaths (now 8) since 9 days ago07:08
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Study of over 50,000 volunteers in China shows Coronavac safety (81 votes) | https://www.saopaulo.sp.gov.br/noticias-coronavirus/estudo-com-mais-de-50-mil-voluntarios-na-china-mostra-seguranca-da-coronavac/ | https://redd.it/iynzls07:13
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Asymptomatic reinfection in two healthcare workers from India with genetically distinct SARS-CoV-2 (80 votes) | https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1451/5910388 | https://redd.it/iyhpkc07:25
BrainstormUpdates for Scotland, United Kingdom: +486 cases (now 25495), +2 deaths (now 2508) since a day ago — Maharashtra, India: +18390 cases (now 1.2 million), +392 deaths (now 33407) since a day ago — Noord-Brabant, Netherlands: +316 cases (now 15251), +2 deaths (now 1554) since a day ago — Caldas, Colombia: +223 cases (now 5117), +7 deaths (now 114) since a day ago07:38
BrainstormUpdates for Georgia: +259 cases (now 4399) since 22 hours ago — World: +2803 cases (now 32.2 million), +22 deaths (now 983516) since an hour ago — Israel: +1642 cases (now 206332), +10 deaths (now 1335) since 9 hours ago — Hungary: +750 cases (now 21200), +7 deaths (now 709) since 22 hours ago08:53
BrainstormUpdates for Lithuania: +138 cases (now 4070), +2 deaths (now 89) since 23 hours ago — World: +512 cases (now 32.2 million), +5 deaths (now 983521) since 38 minutes ago — Armenia: +374 cases (now 48251), +3 deaths (now 945) since a day ago09:23
BrainstormUpdates for Slovakia: +360 cases (now 7629) since a day ago — World: +7245 cases (now 32.2 million), +149 deaths (now 983670) since an hour ago — Russia: +6595 cases (now 1.1 million), +149 deaths (now 19948) since a day ago — Croatia: +232 cases (now 15572), +4 deaths (now 261) since a day ago10:23
BrainstormUpdates for Indonesia: +4634 cases (now 262022), +128 deaths (now 10105) since a day ago — World: +7655 cases (now 32.2 million), +170 deaths (now 983840) since 43 minutes ago — Philippines: +2164 cases (now 296755), +36 deaths (now 5127) since 22 hours ago — Austria: +832 cases (now 40816), +6 deaths (now 783) since a day ago10:53
BrainstormUpdates for Poland: +1136 cases (now 82809), +25 deaths (now 2369) since 23 hours ago — World: +7393 cases (now 32.2 million), +76 deaths (now 983916) since an hour ago — India: +4679 cases (now 5.7 million), +31 deaths (now 91204) since 5 hours ago — US: +584 cases (now 7.1 million), +5 deaths (now 206598) since 8 hours ago11:53
Jigsy%cases world15:26
BrainstormJigsy: In World, there have been 32.3 million confirmed cases (0.4% of the population) and 984335 deaths (3.1% of cases) as of 9 minutes ago. 620.8 million tests were performed (5.2% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.2% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 4.0% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=World for time series data.15:26
Jigsy%cases UK15:26
Jigsy%cases UK15:28
BrainstormJigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 409729 confirmed cases (0.6% of the population) and 45712 deaths (11.2% of cases) as of 8 minutes ago. 22.6 million tests were performed (1.8% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data.15:28
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Virologist Drosten: "The pandemic will only really start now" (80 votes) | https://www.interview-welt.de/2020/09/24/virologe-drosten-die-pandemie-wird-jetzt-erst-richtig-losgehen/ | https://redd.it/iyvbd315:28
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: Missouri governor, opponent of mandatory masks, has COVID-19 (10034 votes) | https://www.counton2.com/news/national-news/missouri-governor-opponent-of-mandatory-masks-has-covid-19/ | https://redd.it/iyjf6915:46
aswe323hi, from israel here, we about to go into full lockdown. any advice?16:18
generakeep your exercise up?16:19
generastay outside for vitamin-d ?16:19
aswe323i mean... sure :P16:20
aswe323%cases israel16:20
Brainstormaswe323: In Israel, there have been 206332 confirmed cases (2.2% of the population) and 1335 deaths (0.6% of cases) as of 7 hours ago. 3.3 million tests were performed (6.3% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.2% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 0.9% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Israel for time series data.16:20
aswe3232.2% of a country got infected. that bad right?16:20
genera6% positivity rate is bad too16:22
aswe323%cases australia16:23
Brainstormaswe323: In Australia, there have been 26980 confirmed cases (0.1% of the population) and 861 deaths (3.2% of cases) as of 12 hours ago. 7.4 million tests were performed (0.4% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.9% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.4% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Australia for time series data.16:23
aswe323%germany16:24
aswe323%cases germany16:24
Brainstormaswe323: In Germany, there have been 279549 confirmed cases (0.3% of the population) and 9509 deaths (3.4% of cases) as of 7 minutes ago. 15.6 million tests were performed (1.8% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.6% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data.16:24
aswe323should we consider population to tests precetnage?16:24
de-factowhen the "dance with the tiger" did to go well and incidence increased to such a high level (like in Israel), thb i would feel more comfortable when the prevalence is "hit by a hammer" i.e. wrestled down with a full blown lockdown16:32
de-factoso from that perspective its a good thing that effective actions are implemented to address the problem16:33
aswe323yup16:33
aswe323couldnt aggre more16:34
de-factomaybe everyone should have a contact diary to be able to warn contacts in case of positive tests16:36
matankribussup16:40
matankribusbtw where does the bot get the info?16:48
BrainstormUpdates for World: +60318 cases (now 32.3 million), +1004 deaths (now 984920) since 5 hours ago — India: +28547 cases (now 5.8 million), +231 deaths (now 91435) since 5 hours ago — US: +5132 cases (now 7.1 million), +203 deaths (now 206801) since 5 hours ago — Iraq: +4471 cases (now 337106), +45 deaths (now 8799) since a day ago16:50
de-factomatankribus, i think https://offloop.net/covid19/17:38
de-factonot sure though17:38
LjLYes18:03
BrainstormUpdates for Jordan: +549 cases (now 6591), +1 deaths (now 36) since a day ago — World: +10417 cases (now 32.3 million), +164 deaths (now 985084) since an hour ago — US: +4047 cases (now 7.1 million), +105 deaths (now 206906) since an hour ago — Italy: +1786 cases (now 304323), +23 deaths (now 35781) since a day ago18:20
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +5377 cases (now 416363) since 15 minutes ago — World: +8440 cases (now 32.3 million), +116 deaths (now 985200) since 17 minutes ago — Turkey: +1721 cases (now 309790), +74 deaths (now 7785) since 23 hours ago — Namibia: +77 cases (now 10740), +2 deaths (now 119) since 18 hours ago18:35
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: 'Close to 100% accuracy': Helsinki airport uses sniffer dogs to detect Covid (10093 votes) | https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/24/close-to-100-accuracy-airport-enlists-sniffer-dogs-to-test-for-covid-19 | https://redd.it/iyv7ev18:59
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: COVID-19 can affect the heart (83 votes) | https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/09/23/science.abe2813 | https://redd.it/iyyi2q19:23
LjLi thought we kind of knew19:24
bin_bashyeah...19:28
bin_bash2/3 of people with mild symptoms had lasting heart damage in at least 1 study19:28
Jigsy%cases UK20:07
BrainstormJigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 416363 confirmed cases (0.6% of the population) and 41902 deaths (10.1% of cases) as of 3 minutes ago. 22.6 million tests were performed (1.8% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data.20:07
JigsyHeh.20:07
Jigsy7K?20:07
Jigsy(Since I called it earlier, anyway.)20:08
rmonten[m]Herd immunity (44% - 66%) is claimed to have been obtained in Manaus, Brazil at the cost of 250 deaths/100k population. I haven't been keeping up with legit claims of herd immunity, does anybody know how this compares to other places?  20:09
rmonten[m]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.16.20194787v1.full.pdf+html20:09
LjLJigsy, it's +5377 today i believe20:11
LjLrmonten[m], i don't know of any other places that are thought to have obtained herd immunity20:11
tinwhiskersrmonten[m]: more likely to be distorted reality for political gains20:11
LjLhard-hit places like Lombardy and Madrid only still have 10%ish20:11
LjL(according to antibody surveys)20:11
Jigsy6,634...20:12
JigsyClose enough.20:12
LjLJigsy, okay, the UK no longer publishes one daily update but instead it does several, so i am never really sure20:12
rmonten[m]tinwhiskers: you mean the study could have been manipulated?20:12
tinwhiskersrmonten[m]: also, 44% is an extremely low estimate for obtaining herd immunity for covid. It's more likely 66%-80%.20:13
tinwhiskersrmonten[m]: there were some antibody tests done in New York I think that people were making all sorts of claims about reaching herd immunity over. The tests were bad, but they may not have been manipulated. They were certainly used for political gain.20:14
LjLtinwhiskers, but to be fair i don't think an actual paper was ever published, or if it was, it was much later...? it was more number-boasting in press releases20:16
rmonten[m]tinwhiskers: sure 44% is low. They cite heterogeneous exposure and decay of antibody prevalence as reasons it would be sufficient. My guess would be that the community's behavior has so drastically changed that "R_0" is not really the relevant number anymore20:17
tinwhiskersLjL: maybe they didn't reach past preprint stage. I don't recall. The point is they don't have to be manipulated to be wrong or used for political gain.20:18
rmonten[m]I said that wrong, they use decay of antibodies to guess that prevalence had been higher during the peak.20:18
IndoAnonrmonten[m]: It's quite speculative 20:20
LjLrmonten[m], that's perplexing. first, i don't think we know enough about the decay of antibodies to make such an assessment. second, if antibodies have gone away in some people, chances are those people will be vulnerable again (not necessarily: T cells, and so on, but, that they're safe is just not an assumption one can make)20:21
LjLherd immunity works if all those people are actually immune, not just if they had COVID at some point but can get it again now20:21
Apercuherd immunity needs to go away as a topic IMO20:22
LjLHerd immunity is what a widely-deployed vaccine achieved, so I really hope it doesn't go away20:22
ApercuI mean as a tactic to control CV20:22
tinwhiskersLjL++20:22
ApercuLjL: what determines mutations of virus types? or is there anything within a type that is common re: mutation?20:24
rmonten[m]LjL: I agree, their explanations for why 44% points to herd immunity (in the past) is a stretch, but I was wondering if this order of magnitude had popped up in other research as well. One reason you may hope so is T-cells indeed.20:24
tinwhiskersit sounds like quite an outlier result to me, but at some stage *somewhere* has to get there first, so you never know I guess. Still, if the conclusion is based on 44% then, no, they have not reached herd immunity.20:25
ApercuI wonder what level annual H1N1 vaccinations ever get to a level that protects others, or say in the US what percentage get Vax for it usually20:25
LjLApercu, "types" isn't really a specific term. what might meaningfully distinguish strains of SARS-COV-2 is if some mutations they have (note that mutations that change little-to-nothing are happening all the time) cause visible differences in the phenotype, i.e. the virus is much more or much less aggressive, or worse, the virus has changed enough that is no longer vulnerable to previous antibodies or vaccines20:25
ApercuLjL: yes, believe I read that is why H1N1 in 1918 was more deadly, in part mutation to being less agressive20:27
Apercuhowever, seems like if viruses operated like antibiotics-resistance, they'd be more like to mutate to More deadly forms rather than Less20:29
tinwhiskersthe most successful viruses are those that persist the most, not kill the most.20:30
Apercuvs Bacteria?20:31
tinwhiskersthe same applies20:31
Apercubacteria mutate and become more difficult to control, at least Staph Aureus does20:32
tinwhiskerserr... yeah20:32
izfor either, killing is like burning out the engine of your mobile home20:32
tinwhiskersextremely deadly viruses/bacteria don't tend to do as well as more benign ones because they don't spread as well due to killing their host20:33
tinwhiskersdeath is more of a byproduct of the spread than the "aim"20:33
izif you want to freak yourself out, research how bacteria is used to create fuel and which bacteria they use for it20:33
izthe gene added to make fuel isn't useful for the bacteria, so it will get evolved out very quickly.. so they need to tie it to antibiotic resistance and they keep the bacteria in a antibiotic soup20:34
LjLApercu, bacteria mutate that way because they develop resistance to antibiotics20:36
LjLresistance to antivirals is also possible, but rare, mainly i think because we barely have any decent antivirals20:36
LjLit took 30 years to get to a point where the right cocktail of balanced antivirals kinda sorta keeps HIV under control20:36
ApercuLjL: flu vaccinations don't -> mutations?20:36
LjLApercu, the flu mutates substantially every year. every year, we develop a new, different vaccine for it (well, multiple)20:37
LjLthe flu is special that way though, it's not a characteristic of all viruses20:37
izbacteria are more "alive" than viruses are20:37
tinwhiskersThe mutations are happening anyway. Antibiotics don't cause mutations. These things have a high rate of mutation so tend to find a way around things.20:37
tinwhiskersso no, vaccinations do not cause mutations!20:37
izthe problem w/ antibiotics and bacteria mutation is when not enough antibiotics is used20:38
LjLtinwhiskers, right, i misspoke, but i simply meant that antibiotics use can cause mutations that become prevalent when they otherwise wouldn't20:38
LjLthat's a longer sentence to write20:38
Apercuwere the SARS antibodies protective long term?20:41
LjLi don't know. probably not many people got exposed to SARS twice...20:42
izyeah, it never got tested w/ sars or mers, b/c those outbreaks were quashed quickly enough20:45
generai thought MERS is still there?20:46
izis it?  i don't think so20:48
izoh, i guess it is20:48
izhttps://www.who.int/csr/don/31-january-2020-mers-united-arab-emirates/en/20:49
LjLMERS sometimes does pop up20:49
tinwhiskersAmong 176 patients who had had severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), SARS-specific antibodies were maintained for an average of 2 years, and significant reduction of immunoglobulin G–positive percentage and titers occurred in the third year. Thus, SARS patients might be susceptible to reinfection >3 years after initial exposure.20:50
tinwhiskershttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2851497/20:50
Apercubut nothing can be implied between corona viruses re: antibody duration?20:52
tinwhiskersnot really, no20:52
tinwhiskersat this stage I think we can say the average period of immunity is probably at least 4 months20:53
tinwhiskersand let's face it, 4 months isn't *all that* terrible. Often (usually?) vaccinations invoke a longer immunity than natural infections so I think it's entirely reasonable to think the early vaccines will give us 4-6+ months of immunity. I can take 3 boosters a year for the next few years if that means the difference between being able to travel and have a normal life or not.20:57
dTalThat 3-year strong immunity thing is interesting - is that specific to SARS, or is that a common duration?21:18
tinwhiskersSARS specific21:19
dTalWhat determines the different durations of immunity?21:20
tinwhiskersthe coronaviruses associated with the common cold are much shorter duration21:20
tinwhiskersYuri*who says he thinks immunity will only be in the order of 4 months.21:20
dTalActually I retract my question as the answer will definitely be too complicated to summarize21:20
tinwhiskersI've placed my money on it being much closer to SARS, but then he's the expert.21:21
tinwhiskersas he keeps reminding us :-)21:21
dTalDoes the body in some sense "decide" how long to keep "immunoglobulin G–positive percentage and titers"?21:21
dTalThere must be a metabolic cost to maintaining immunity, or we'd do it forever21:22
tinwhiskersI have no idea why some last for a shorter period.21:22
LjLdTal, or perhaps an autoimmune-risk cost21:23
dTalGood point21:24
izi thought it was like.. just the surface of the virus changes slightly over time?21:24
dTal3 years strikes me as an interesting duration to "choose" - it's a sort of "ride out the pandemic" duration21:24
tinwhiskersiz: no this is about neutralising antibodies over time to the same strain of virus21:25
dTaland the precipitous drop implies some sort of "switch" rather than a half-life21:25
dTalit has me wondering is SARS triggered some sort of specific pandemic-response adaptation21:25
dTaleveryone who got SARS got pretty sick, right?21:26
dTalwhereas Covid doesn't hit most people very hard at all21:26
tinwhiskersI think so21:26
dTalhence the problem with spreading21:27
tinwhiskersso, now is the time to place your bets. Those who betted on 4 months may be about to win or lose. Last bets please.21:28
iztinwhiskers: oh, i guess antigen tests are actually looking for the antibodies too21:28
izso the body just stops making antibodies it's learned to make after some amount of time?21:29
tinwhiskersoh, were those antigen tests? right. my bad. 21:29
dTalWell I'll hedge and plump for 4 months for most people, maybe longer in severe cases :p21:29
izwell, i just meant it to clairfy my minconception that the antibodies were still there, they just weren't effective to what was in the wild21:30
tinwhiskersyou can remember how to make the antitbodies for some time after they stop being present in your blood, but it takes a while to ramp up production.21:30
dTaliz: well that happens too, with some viruses21:30
izoh.. so your body can remember how to make them, but it just doesn't keep them constantly in your system if the virus hasn't been present for awhile?21:33
izthat makes sense.. which is why antigen tests work21:34
AndreasKunstmannhttps://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/09/23/pers-s23.html21:35
ryoumais it true that humans need uv light and not just d3?  e.g. to activate d3 or so?  e.g. if you are getting basically zero sun?  if so are there reliable devices for producing safe versions and levels of it?22:13
ryoumai am referring to bedridden vulnerables here, not normal lockdowned folk22:13
tinwhiskersI thought supplements could entirely replace that, aside from the mental health issues.22:14
Apercuryouma: ever read merck manual? I consider the go-to source22:15
ryoumai used to have it and still do but can't physically read it.  is it online?22:17
ryoumawhat mental health issues?22:17
ryoumai hav eheard from a physician that "it is thought that there is something else in sunlight" but no specifics and in the ohter channel there was a claim that some uv is needed FOR d3, is all22:18
Apercuyes there is a professional and a non-professional edition online22:18
ryoumaor rahter that the body uses uv for more than d322:19
ryoumafor the first claim22:19
tinwhiskersit also increases serotonin levels22:24
ApercuVitamin D deficiency is common and results from inadequate exposure to sunlight and inadequate dietary intake (usually occurring together) and/or from chronic kidney disease.22:25
ApercuThe deficiency can cause muscle aches and weakness, bone pain, and osteomalacia.22:25
LjLtinwhiskers, is that the UV though? the body also has light sensor neurons (which use the eyes, but are separate from the optical nerves) to determine whether it's day or night and do the needful22:25
tinwhiskersyeah, that's light I think, not UV per se22:26
Apercuso, doubtful anything different about sunlight pertaining to cholecalcefirol22:26
Apercusunlight might have an effect on your mood, and sleep patterns22:26
LjLtidbid: blind people, depending on how their blindness happened, can either be able to recognize light from dark (they may have it as a general feeling, or at least their body may react appropriately), or conversely if they don't, they will often have non-24h sleep syndromes22:27
JigsyI guess that answers a question about a scene in a comedy I saw.22:34
Jigsy"So I was shaving in front of the mirror--" "Wait, you're blind, why do you shave in front of the mirror?" "It's where the good light is."22:34
dTalI don't get it22:51
LjLoh so it's not just me22:54
ryoumathe word probably can refer to some who can use a mirror usefully22:55
LjLi have a better joke22:56
LjLchild: "dad, put on your mask!"22:57
LjLdad: "sure, but later, i'm eating now"22:57
LjLlater: "dad, come on, mom said to put on your mask!"22:57
LjLdad: "okay but i'm drinking now"22:57
LjLchild: "look dad, mom said if you refused to put it on, to remind you about Berlusconi"22:57
LjLdad: "how so? he recovered from his COVID"22:58
LjLchild: "yes, but he's divorced"22:58
dTalHaha23:09
LjLsince bots in other channels are working better than mine23:46
LjL18<29CarlSagan_18> [7Ars Technica - Science] Trump may reject FDA’s stricter regulations for COVID-19 vaccine https://arstechnica.com/?p=1709533 2020-09-24T20:33:4123:46
LjL18<29CarlSagan_18> [2NYT - Science] Novavax Enters Final Stage of Coronavirus Vaccine Trials https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/health/covid-19-vaccine-novavax.html 2020-09-24T20:53:1323:46
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Upper respiratory viral load in asymptomatic individuals and mildly symptomatic patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection (80 votes) | https://thorax.bmj.com/content/early/2020/08/28/thoraxjnl-2020-215042 | https://redd.it/iywbld23:49
BrainstormUpdates for World: +148495 cases (now 32.5 million), +2414 deaths (now 987614) since 5 hours ago — India: +50359 cases (now 5.8 million), +882 deaths (now 92317) since 7 hours ago — Brazil: +29922 cases (now 4.7 million), +743 deaths (now 139808) since 20 hours ago — US: +25365 cases (now 7.2 million), +384 deaths (now 207290) since 5 hours ago23:51
genevino%cases germany23:54
Brainstormgenevino: In Germany, there have been 281345 confirmed cases (0.3% of the population) and 9519 deaths (3.4% of cases) as of 7 minutes ago. 15.6 million tests were performed (1.8% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.6% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data.23:54

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