libera/##covid-19/ Wednesday, 2020-09-30

BrainstormNew from Ars Technica: Science: Flouting all standards, Russia plans to release early COVID-19 vaccine data → https://is.gd/JIxWO200:02
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Regeneron's REGN-COV2 Antibody Cocktail Reduced Viral Levels and Improved Symptoms in Non-Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients (86 votes) | https://newsroom.regeneron.com/news-releases/news-release-details/regenerons-regn-cov2-antibody-cocktail-reduced-viral-levels-and | https://redd.it/j2718o00:31
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Long Covid: Long-term effects of coronavirus include damage to heart, liver, kidneys - Oxford study reveals → https://is.gd/sADpgj00:33
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Disney is laying off 28,000 employees as pandemic hammers its theme parks → https://is.gd/ZRKhah01:04
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Chinese Citizens Are Already Receiving a Coronavirus Vaccine → https://is.gd/KheauJ01:15
BrainstormUpdates for Argentina: +13477 cases (now 736609), +406 deaths (now 16519) since 18 hours ago — World: +172105 cases (now 33.9 million), +3717 deaths (now 1.0 million) since 7 hours ago — India: +66797 cases (now 6.2 million), +1061 deaths (now 97529) since 9 hours ago — Brazil: +31990 cases (now 4.8 million), +849 deaths (now 143010) since 23 hours ago01:21
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: COVID-19 cases rising among US children as schools reopen → https://is.gd/c13W4M01:35
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Coronavirus: NHS well stocked for ventilators this winter: The NHS now has access to 30,000 machines that can help people breathe if they are very ill with Covid-19. → https://is.gd/MpXI3e01:45
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: COVID-19: All the wrong moves in all the wrong places → https://is.gd/FO16ko02:06
LjLubLIX[m], https://coverscan.com/ (via https://www.itv.com/news/2020-09-29/long-covid-long-term-effects-of-coronavirus-include-damage-to-heart-liver-kidneys-oxford-study-reveals)02:09
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: FAQs on Protecting Yourself from Aerosol Transmission → https://is.gd/0uvwrS02:16
ryoumahttps://depts.washington.edu/pandemicalliance/category/covid-19-literature-situation-report/02:29
LjLryouma, you too, what i linked above... although it's a UK thing02:32
LjLryouma, for a moment i thought "that looks like something that probably has an RSS feed" but nope02:35
LjLit sure went out of fashion as fast as it got into fashion02:35
LjLhaving RSS feeds02:35
ryouma"50% Of patients have evidence of heart, liver or kidney damage, with a median age of 43 years"02:38
ryoumacan't follow links or watch but that stood out.  and that was before all the other stuff.02:38
ryoumai would not be surprised if the uw team that produces that report could be persuaded to ... ask their sysadmin to add rss02:39
ryoumaby a single email suggestion02:39
ryoumathey are kind of volunteering for the whole thing, 6am to 6pm, a bunch of grad students02:39
LjLah02:40
ryoumathey scan hundreds of papers per day to produce it02:40
ryoumatrying to find most significant (and also to plug uw occasionally :/)02:40
LjLthey have links to facebook, twitter, etc at the bottom, i was hoping for a tiny rss one too02:40
ryoumathey look at the sample size, etc.02:40
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Bill Gates Denies COVID-19 Vaccine Microchips and Satanic Conspiracy Theories → https://is.gd/OJ8Lhq02:47
LjLyou don't say02:52
ryoumadid they weld inside house or did they weld some exit doors but not others so that fewer guards were needed02:53
LjLryouma, i think there have been instances of both things02:54
LjLi think the welding-inside-homes has mostly happened in some isolated cases on order of local authorities that were later chastized02:54
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: White House overrules CDC on banning cruise ships till 2021 → https://is.gd/gY0KOF02:57
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: (news): Coronavirus doctor's diary: Trying out tech that may help make worship Covid-secure → https://is.gd/6PRqL003:08
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: ‘Super Healthy’ College Student Dies of Rare Covid-19 Complications → https://is.gd/e0PByH03:28
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Coronavirus steals a chef’s sense of taste, and there’s no telling when it might come back → https://is.gd/f4xbFb03:59
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: ‘I’ve had worse cases of the flu.’ Then COVID-19 took hold and Arkansas educator died → https://is.gd/57kFwr04:09
de-factoCorrection: Global 2019 HIV: 25.4M in therapy, 38M living with it, 1.7M newly infected 0.69M fatalities NOT 0,96M fatalities04:26
de-factohttps://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet04:26
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Brazil Reaches 142 thousand Deaths by Covid-19, Shows Press Consortium → https://is.gd/sGyYxB04:40
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: ‘Taxes, coronavirus’: Key takeaways from first US presidential debate between Donald Trump, Joe Biden → https://is.gd/AzXjmY04:51
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Trump’s debate highlights his hunger for a rushed, election-eve vaccine approval: President Trump spoke on Tuesday as if his campaign depends on a Covid-19 vaccine. Specifically, a vaccine approval by Election Day. → https://is.gd/oOWlyE05:01
BrainstormNew from CDC EIDJ: (news): SARS-CoV-2 in Quarantined Domestic Cats from COVID-19 Households or Close Contacts, Hong Kong, China → https://is.gd/xVrC6y05:11
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Fewer than 1 in 10 Americans have antibodies to coronavirus, study finds (82 votes) | http://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2020/09/few-americans-have-coronavirus-antibodies-study-finds.html?sf129512559=1 | https://redd.it/j27yh505:44
ryoumawhere is the commonly spoken of 70 percent figure for herd immunity derived from and why does it not vary by society and pathogen?05:46
ryouma(and is there a word for infectious or contagious pathogen)05:47
ryouma%cases us05:50
Brainstormryouma: In US, there have been 7.4 million confirmed cases (2.2% of the population) and 210785 deaths (2.8% of cases) as of 3 minutes ago. 106.1 million tests were performed (7.0% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.9% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 4.3% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data.05:50
ryoumawha tproportion in us have g0otten infected total?05:50
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Exercising after coronavirus: Young athlete hearts reveal a key lesson → https://is.gd/VxbYId06:24
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Puzzled scientists seek reasons behind Africa's low fatality rates from pandemic → https://is.gd/1Jf6jl06:44
de-factoryouma, the point of herd immunity is derived from the assumed reproduction number in a naive unaware fully susceptible population: if a portion of (R0-1) / R0 became immune the turning point is reached where case numbers begin to decline naturally (without any containment measures or contact rate reductions)06:52
de-factothis is the most simple model, it does only work on average numbers and does not take things like overdispersion or variations in contact rates into account06:53
de-factoexample: assume R0 = 2.5 hence we might have decline of incidence when (2.5 - 1) / 2.5 = 1.5 / 2.5 = 0.6 = 60% became immune06:55
ryoumawhy are you doing r0 - 1?06:57
ryoumaalso what is overdispersion?)06:57
de-factoit comes from the proportion of immune removed from the susceptible, you can see it in more detail on wiki https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity#Mechanics07:00
de-factoover dispersion is the deviation of properties of carriers from the average carrier, e.g. assume R=2 for 10 carriers, 9 giving it to 1 successor each (neither ending nor starting new infection chains) but the 10th carrier starting 10 _new_ infection chains giving it to 11 successors: on average 10 carriers gave it to 20 in the successor generation hence R=2 but all of the exponential amplification emerged from that one superspreader07:02
de-factosuch potential super speraders with very high contact rates might contribute a significant part to incidence hence prevalence but also possibly may aquire immunity first, hence if their contribution would be prevented incidence might go down by a lot (hence above most simple model with average numbers might be too pessimistic)07:05
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: India's Covid Tally Crosses 61 Lakh, 70,589 New Cases; 96,318 Total Deaths → https://is.gd/HMOcAu07:05
de-factothen we dont even know if immunity is long lasting enough (e.g. for mild or asymptomatic cases) that it will prevent from ever becoming infectious carrier again able to spread it to other susceptible07:06
de-factofor example this obviously is not the case for common cold corona viruses, you can get them quite often and they give you a mild "common cold"07:07
BrainstormUpdates for World: +41520 cases (now 34.0 million), +1055 deaths (now 1.0 million) since 5 hours ago — US: +8166 cases (now 7.4 million), +148 deaths (now 210785) since 5 hours ago — France: +7035 cases (now 567345) since 5 hours ago — Mexico: +4446 cases (now 738163), +560 deaths (now 77163) since 23 hours ago07:07
ryoumaare incidence and prevalence well-defined terms of art?07:08
de-factoincidence is the occurrence of an event per unit time (e.g. number of infections per day), prevalence is the ratio of such events to unaffected population (e.g. active cases per 100k citizens)07:10
ryoumanot to total population?07:10
de-factoyou can count it for any part of it as you like, afaik per 100k is quite common because it gives numbers that are easy to handle07:12
ryoumai'd like to see prevalence curves (except contagious cases not active cases)07:12
ryoumai mean, prevalence is 1) active cases per unaffected N or 2) active cases per N07:13
ryoumatotal07:13
de-factofor example in Germany we have thresholds for containment measures to kick in: weekly incidence in a population of 100k: 35 or 50 weekly new cases per 100k citizens are two steps for new escalations of containment07:14
de-factoi think active cases per total 07:15
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: N95 are still impossible to get because 3M based most of production in China → https://is.gd/jQSTNy07:15
de-factoor cases of a specific property in a given group of population, be it active cases, seroprevalence for antibodies, testing prevalence etc07:16
ryouman95 are apparently actually now possible to get for non-hcw.  they might be quite expensive or not niosh-approved (but possibly ok), but they presumably and do respectively have the melt-blown thingie.07:19
ryoumabut hte article sayus still shortage for hcw so dunno07:23
ryoumaoffloop is incidence only right?07:23
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: London high school teacher calls face masks an "egregious and unforgivable form of child abuse" → https://is.gd/5eK3mw07:26
de-factobtw you can of course invert the simple equation p = (R0-1)/R0  <=> R0 = 1/(p-1) so an R0 = {2, 2.5, 3, 3.5, 4, 4.5, 5} corresponds to  p = {0.5, 0.6, 0.67, 0.71, 0.75, 0.78, 0.8}07:27
de-factooffloop is incidence when "cumulative" is not checked i guess07:28
de-factoincidence basically is the time derivative (or daily change aka new cases) per day to the total accumulated number of cases 07:29
de-factoe.g. in USA currently there are 7.4M total detected infections since the start, but this number increases with an incidence of 43k new cases detected each single day, hence the increase of 43k cases per day could be seen as "time derivative"07:34
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Disney Parks Lays Off 28,000 Employees, Blames California Not Reopening Disneyland → https://is.gd/9ptAvf07:36
ryoumabut cumulative is different from active07:36
de-factoyeah07:37
ryoumayou want cumulative to guess at natural immunity.  you want active to guess at prevalence.07:37
ryoumaat a given time07:37
de-factoincidence is any occurence of a property07:37
de-factoas is prevalence the portion of such property in a population07:38
de-factoso it could be active cases, antibodies, tests done, detected cases, you name it07:38
ryoumaso to guess at contagious prevalence curve from incidence curve you have to know facts about the disease like length of time to be contagious, incubation time even, behavior, testing, etc.07:41
ryoumai have not seen a prevalence curve yet i thinkg07:41
de-factoe.g. cumulative cases to guess prevalence of natural immunity (seroprevalence of antibodies, yet they fade off), incidence for estimating how fast you get there (e.g. how many daily new cases "progress" is made)07:42
ryoumaright07:42
ryoumabut neither tells you whether your city is currently radioactive07:43
ryoumajust whether a lot of cases are being seen which also needs the amount of testing and who is being tgested to be taken into account07:43
de-factoryouma, yes incidence describes how many new time slots (e.g. 14 days long or such) for active disease you pile up each day that contribute to currently active cases07:44
ryoumaright, but the curve for that could look slightly different, and require fewer assumptions, compared to the curve for the proportion of the population currently contagious07:45
de-factoso if you assume that such an active case is contagious for its timeslot of being active and you know how many current active cases you have per 100k citizens you also can estimate the likelihood for meeting someone infectious (e.g. if for every detected case there may be 9 undetected asymptomatic cases happily walking around or such)07:46
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Nearly 100 nurses laid off as Canada "on the brink" of coronavirus second wave → https://is.gd/6GlqdU07:46
ryoumayes that is the curve i want.  but i'd want to know the error bars on it07:46
ryoumathat is /a/ curve i want*07:46
de-facto(note those numbers are speculation, just for demonstrative purpose)07:46
de-factohard to tell error bars on such a curve, many big factors are unknown hence have to be estimated07:47
ryoumais the northern second wave going to hit the sunbelt states (or lower parts of mediterranean countries)?07:47
ryoumamigration could cause that07:48
de-factoe.g. for every quarantined case, how many undetected carriers ?07:48
de-factoryouma, once i tried to replicate the active cases curve for our local city here, a simple model with two groups could estimate it pretty well, when i remember correctly it was like 85% were active for 14 days and 15% for 30 days or such07:49
ryoumaepidemiology is a strange field with such variables07:50
de-factoindeed07:50
ryoumatwo groups?07:50
ryoumaoh07:50
de-factoyeah maybe it was like young and healthy recovering at home in quarantine and some more difficult cases in hospital? idk that, i just had daily new cases and daily active cases and tried to derive the later from the former07:51
de-factothat was at the very begin of the pandemic though07:52
de-factoprobably quite different today07:52
de-factoyeah in our little 160k citizens town it was 85% recovered in 12d, 15% in 37d and in the surrounding region it was 85% needed 11d and 15% 36d, that was in the first wave of the pandemic 07:57
de-factoryouma, here you can see the active cases (upper plot city, lower plot region): the reported active cases are light blue, the predicted active cases blue https://imgur.com/a/XZs1UAv08:04
de-factoso it seems it worked better at the begin than at the end, probably those parameters are time function themselves too08:05
BrainstormUpdates for Unknown, Netherlands: +5949 cases (now 6880), +19 deaths (now 37) since 2 days ago — Scotland, United Kingdom: +806 cases (now 28604) since a day ago — Sumy Oblast, Ukraine: +195 cases (now 4008), +7 deaths (now 70) since a day ago — Guam: +157 cases (now 2443), +8 deaths (now 47) since 4 days ago08:08
de-factoso it seems such a two group recovery model estimates the reported active cases pretty well and the fast 85% 11-12d recovery times are somewhat plausible, but i dont know why those 15% slow recovery times would be 36-37d thats too long imho yet those numbers estimated the reported curves best08:14
de-factoafk08:16
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Teachers are calling for a corona traffic light for schools → https://is.gd/y4fEY808:37
BrainstormUpdates for Georgia: +326 cases (now 6192) since 15 hours ago — World: +326 cases (now 34.0 million) since 36 minutes ago08:38
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Novel nasal spray reduces viral replication by up to 96%: according to COVID-19 challenge study → https://is.gd/3r3VEX09:09
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Low risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission by fomites in real-life conditions (83 votes) | https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30678-2/fulltext | https://redd.it/j2dvxk09:09
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: 31 states currently have a Rt value of 1.00 or greater → https://is.gd/KUkS9p09:40
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: 3 Nurses Describe What It’s Like To Care For COVID-19 Patients → https://is.gd/P6jaY109:50
BrainstormUpdates for Russia: +8481 cases (now 1.2 million), +177 deaths (now 20722) since 23 hours ago — World: +15855 cases (now 34.0 million), +199 deaths (now 1.0 million) since an hour ago — India: +3711 cases (now 6.2 million), +12 deaths (now 97541) since 3 hours ago — Israel: +2296 cases (now 239222) since 8 hours ago09:53
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Movie theaters in jeopardy as studios move blockbusters to 2021, audiences stay home → https://is.gd/TbX3tw10:10
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Coronavirus: NHS well stocked for ventilators this winter: The NHS now has access to 30,000 machines that can help people breathe if they are very ill with Covid-19. → https://is.gd/MpXI3e10:21
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: White House overrules CDC on banning cruise ships till 2021 (10141 votes) | https://www.axios.com/scoop-white-house-overruled-cdc-cruise-ships-florida-91442136-1b8e-442e-a2a1-0b24e9a39fb6.html | https://redd.it/j2bxt010:22
BrainstormUpdates for Slovakia: +567 cases (now 10141), +3 deaths (now 48) since 20 hours ago — World: +7613 cases (now 34.0 million), +205 deaths (now 1.0 million) since 44 minutes ago — Indonesia: +4284 cases (now 287008), +139 deaths (now 10740) since 20 hours ago — Philippines: +2391 cases (now 311694), +56 deaths (now 5504) since a day ago10:23
BrainstormUpdates for Slovenia: +203 cases (now 5690), +1 deaths (now 150) since 20 hours ago — World: +203 cases (now 34.0 million), +1 deaths (now 1.0 million) since 23 minutes ago10:38
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: Germany looks to tackle coronavirus rise with 3 simple strategies: Chancellor Angela Merkel has vowed to avoid another full national lockdown as coronavirus infections begin to spike again in Germany. → https://is.gd/1fnTll10:42
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Opinion: Online privacy loss: another Covid-19 aftershock: Bringing the pandemic under control will continue requiring us to make many difficult sacrifices. Our online privacy doesn't have to be one of them. → https://is.gd/6M2yMN10:52
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Belgium coronavirus death toll passes 10,000: Belgium, one of the European countries hardest hit by the coronavirus, on Wednesday reported its death toll from the pandemic had surpassed 10,000. → https://is.gd/onleZE11:02
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: US women drank more during pandemic: study: Alcohol consumption among women in the United States rose during the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a new study published Tuesday. → https://is.gd/FWYFA211:13
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Malaysia : +89 new cases, +2 deaths, 1124 active cases now → https://is.gd/NGb5tI12:04
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Novartis CEO: It’ll take more than vaccine to fight Covid-19 → https://is.gd/LZyVo212:15
BrainstormUpdates for Romania: +2158 cases (now 127572), +33 deaths (now 4825) since 22 hours ago — World: +5406 cases (now 34.0 million), +87 deaths (now 1.0 million) since an hour ago — Poland: +1552 cases (now 91514), +30 deaths (now 2513) since 22 hours ago — Austria: +772 cases (now 44813), +3 deaths (now 799) since 22 hours ago12:23
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Stony Brook lab studying COVID-19 in cats → https://is.gd/VzgILS12:46
BrainstormUpdates for Latvia: +95 cases (now 1824) since 22 hours ago — World: +655 cases (now 34.0 million), +8 deaths (now 1.0 million) since 36 minutes ago — Switzerland: +411 cases (now 53282), +5 deaths (now 2074) since 22 hours ago — Malaysia: +89 cases (now 11224), +2 deaths (now 136) since 22 hours ago12:53
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Alarming Data Show a Third Wave of COVID-19 Is About to Hit the U.S. → https://is.gd/JpVCCH12:56
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: 15-minute coronavirus test gets the green light for a European rollout: A rapid test to detect Covid-19 has been given the greenlight in Europe, according to its maker Becton Dickinson. → https://is.gd/RnRfos13:06
BrainstormNew from Scientific American: Flu Season Never Came to the Southern Hemisphere: Mask wearing and social distancing for COVID-19 may have cut influenza cases south of the equator -- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com → https://is.gd/kPiOh213:37
BrainstormUpdates for Belarus: +371 cases (now 78631), +5 deaths (now 833) since 23 hours ago — World: +7119 cases (now 34.0 million), +228 deaths (now 1.0 million) since an hour ago — Iran: +3582 cases (now 457219), +183 deaths (now 26169) since 23 hours ago — Nepal: +1559 cases (now 77817), +7 deaths (now 498) since 23 hours ago13:54
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Addiction: Smoking declined, but adverse alcohol use increased during the UK's coronavirus lockdown → https://is.gd/WEBnTM13:58
BrainstormNew from Scientific American: Health: One in Seven Dire COVID Cases May Result from a Faulty Immune Response → https://is.gd/4Hk2Pj14:09
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Coronavirus: Delirium 'key symptom' in frail older people: Doctors and carers advised to watch for signs of confusion because it could be a sign of Covid-19. → https://is.gd/5Byq7R14:30
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: COVID-19: Global alliance comes to Africa’s rescue in vaccine rush → https://is.gd/Ru2ZMX14:40
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Early Hydroxychloroquine but not Chloroquine use reduces ICU admission in COVID-19 patients (83 votes) | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220321755#ec-research-data | https://redd.it/j2hw1v14:47
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: These Restaurants Reopened. That Doesn’t Mean They’ll Survive. → https://is.gd/yoH6hi15:00
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Covid-19 spread in some unique ways in India, new contact tracing data shows → https://is.gd/v2Vs3q15:11
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Pharma: STAT Plus: Pharmalittle: Trump still insists a Covid-19 vaccine is ‘weeks away’; Regeneron antibody treatment shows promise → https://is.gd/PLMQoh15:21
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: The major genetic risk factor for severe COVID-19 is inherited from Neanderthals. (81 votes) | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2818-3 | https://redd.it/j2jyc115:23
BrainstormNew from Scientific American: Health: We Need Federal Action to Prevent the Next Pandemic → https://is.gd/B6vbnW15:42
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express (Health): Health: Prostate Awareness Month: Tips to keep prostate health in check amid the pandemic → https://is.gd/NEkPSw15:52
BrainstormUpdates for Myanmar: +948 cases (now 13373), +26 deaths (now 310) since a day ago — World: +31753 cases (now 34.0 million), +440 deaths (now 1.0 million) since 2 hours ago — India: +15930 cases (now 6.2 million), +220 deaths (now 97761) since 6 hours ago — Maharashtra, India: +14976 cases (now 1.4 million), +430 deaths (now 36181) since a day ago16:09
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: New tricks? When COVID forces a bridge club online, what becomes of their community?: Physical distancing measures during the first COVID-19 outbreak led to the closure of libraries, theaters, gyms, cafes and community centers across Australia. Venues like these are known as "third places". → https://is.gd/yrgF8416:23
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Study: Neanderthal genes are a liability for COVID patients: Scientists say genes that some people have inherited from their Neanderthal ancestors may increase the likelihood of suffering severe forms of COVID-19. → https://is.gd/0Wk67u16:33
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: At home: Making the most of lighting can keep moods lifted: Sunset is arriving noticeably earlier, meaning less mood-lifting daylight for everyone. The weather is turning colder, so we'll soon spend even more time cooped up inside the homes where we've huddled, and sometimes completely quarantined, for six months. → https://is.gd/CxZwxz16:44
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Investigational COVID-19 vaccine well-tolerated, generates immune response in older adults: A Phase 1 trial of an investigational mRNA vaccine to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection has shown that the vaccine is well-tolerated and generates a strong immune response in older adults. A report published today in the New England Journal [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/r76tkU16:54
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Your child's vaccines: What you need to know about catching up during the COVID-19 pandemic: This spring, after stay-at-home orders were announced and schools shut down across the nation, many families stopped going to their pediatrician. As a result, kids have fallen behind on important childhood vaccinations. → https://is.gd/BbcKRY17:05
metroSo it looks like the Vitamin-D trials which have been circulating are randomized17:05
metrobut unblinded17:05
BrainstormUpdates for Jordan: +1776 cases (now 11825), +4 deaths (now 61) since 23 hours ago — World: +10203 cases (now 34.0 million), +285 deaths (now 1.0 million) since an hour ago — US: +3655 cases (now 7.4 million), +224 deaths (now 211059) since an hour ago — Italy: +1850 cases (now 314861), +19 deaths (now 35894) since a day ago17:09
Jigsy%cases UK17:10
BrainstormJigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 446156 confirmed cases (0.7% of the population) and 42072 deaths (9.4% of cases) as of 3 hours ago. 24.2 million tests were performed (1.8% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data.17:10
JigsyNothing yet, then.17:10
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: How social distancing during a pandemic affects the elderly in rural South Africa: Socializing is essential for brain health in the elderly in rural South Africa—has lockdown affected their cognitive function? → https://is.gd/HPSnGA17:15
BrainstormUpdates for Moldova: +1013 cases (now 53042), +10 deaths (now 1320) since a day ago — World: +2461 cases (now 34.1 million), +39 deaths (now 1.0 million) since 20 minutes ago — US: +403 cases (now 7.4 million), +19 deaths (now 211078) since 20 minutes ago — Arizona, US: +323 cases (now 218507), +18 deaths (now 5650) since 23 hours ago17:24
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Work bubbles can help businesses reopen while limiting risk of COVID-19 outbreaks: Creating "work bubbles" during the COVID-19 pandemic can help reduce the risk of company-wide outbreaks while helping essential businesses continue to function, as the example of Bombardier Aviation demonstrates in an analysis published in CMAJ [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/GSF1gP17:26
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +7108 cases (now 453264) since 4 hours ago — Martinique: +253 cases (now 1543), +1 deaths (now 21) since 7 days ago — World: +8061 cases (now 34.1 million), +72 deaths (now 1.0 million) since 19 minutes ago — Pennsylvania, US: +523 cases (now 163743) since 16 hours ago17:39
LjLUK is taking off :(17:44
LjLJigsy, ↑17:44
Jigsy%cases UK17:44
BrainstormJigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 453264 confirmed cases (0.7% of the population) and 42143 deaths (9.3% of cases) as of 10 minutes ago. 24.2 million tests were performed (1.9% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data.17:44
JigsyYup.17:44
JigsyMy neighbor was telling me how his son was home from school because they've had to close.17:45
JigsyBecause one of the staff caught COVID.17:45
LjLi don't know why they open schools, they just have to close them again17:49
BrainstormUpdates for Mayotte: +238 cases (now 3779), +2 deaths (now 42) since 12 days ago — World: +1503 cases (now 34.1 million), +10 deaths (now 1.0 million) since 20 minutes ago — Canada: +480 cases (now 158425) since 19 minutes ago — Uzbekistan: +198 cases (now 56717), +2 deaths (now 470) since 9 hours ago17:54
BrainstormNew from In The Pipeline: Generating Crazy Structures: I feel like a dose of good ol’ organic chemistry this morning, and a (virtual) meeting I attended yesterday gave me a paper to talk about that delivers some. I was speaking with a local group of modelers and computational chemists (BAGIM), and MIT’s Connor Coley was there presenting some of his [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/kAd0K417:57
BrainstormUpdates for Friuli Venezia Giulia, Italy: +346 deaths (now 697) since 10 minutes ago — World: +1313 cases (now 34.1 million), +24 deaths (now 1.0 million) since 21 minutes ago — Indiana, US: +953 cases (now 120019), +20 deaths (now 3632) since a day ago — US: +960 cases (now 7.4 million), +21 deaths (now 211099) since 36 minutes ago18:10
BrainstormUpdates for World: +37158 cases (now 34.1 million), +548 deaths (now 1.0 million) since 23 minutes ago — India: +23638 cases (now 6.3 million), +182 deaths (now 97943) since 2 hours ago — Montana, US: +347 cases (now 13071), +3 deaths (now 180) since 17 hours ago — Brazil: +7320 cases (now 4.8 million), +233 deaths (now 143243) since 17 hours ago18:25
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Study: Neanderthal genes may be liability for COVID patients → https://is.gd/lRr8qd18:28
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): 'Follow the rules': Boris Johnson urges Brits to stick to the Covid plan to avoid a full lockdown → https://is.gd/Bor9UB18:38
BrainstormNew from BMJ: Correction for vol. 370, p.: The BMJ interview: Anthony Fauci on covid-19In this feature (BMJ 2020;370:m3703, 23 September 2020, doi:10.1136/bmj.m3703) we incorrectly added the text “[if a trial were to fail that]” in the... → https://is.gd/yBSnhm18:48
BrainstormUpdates for World: +7338 cases (now 34.1 million), +38 deaths (now 1.0 million) since 32 minutes ago — Israel: +4089 cases (now 243895), +5 deaths (now 1552) since 6 hours ago — US: +2140 cases (now 7.4 million), +12 deaths (now 211182) since 32 minutes ago — Florida, US: +1948 cases (now 706516) since an hour ago18:50
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Low-cost coronavirus testing, surveillance platform: Stanford University along with the Chan Zuckerberg Biohub and a group of collaborators have created a low-cost system to collect samples for COVID-19 testing and monitor populations for the disease. → https://is.gd/bvYKor18:59
ArsaneritI was hiking in Piemonte, in one mountain hut the keeper told me to take my mask off and to switch off all my devices emitting electromagnetic radiation because she alleged they made her sick (she had a big measurement device to verify they were indeed switched off), she also seemed to suggest nobody actually died of covid-19.19:00
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: No race difference found in COVID-19 mortality rates at same medical center: (HealthDay)—For admitted COVID-19 patients presenting to the same urban medical center, risk-adjusted outcomes were no worse for non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic patients versus non-Hispanic White patients, according to a study published online Sept. [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/9cWBLR19:09
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: White House blocks CDC order to keep cruise ships docked → https://is.gd/KV0Tt519:29
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: The covid-19 recession is the most unequal in modern U.S. history → https://is.gd/q6nZ9v19:40
BrainstormUpdates for United Arab Emirates: +1100 cases (now 94190), +3 deaths (now 419) since a day ago — World: +39015 cases (now 34.1 million), +530 deaths (now 1.0 million) since an hour ago — India: +18196 cases (now 6.3 million), +192 deaths (now 98135) since an hour ago — Spain: +11016 cases (now 769188), +177 deaths (now 31791) since 18 hours ago19:50
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Hospital admissions not related to COVID-19 fell in early 2020: (HealthDay)—Non-COVID-19 hospital admissions decreased considerably with the onset of COVID-19, with declines generally similar across patient demographic subgroups from February to April 2020, according to a report published online Sept. 24 in Health Affairs. → https://is.gd/Rgu0oU19:50
dTalArsanerit: I would just placidly asset that I'm not wearing a mask and I don't own a phone19:54
dTaltwo can play at the "denying reality" game19:54
BrainstormNew from ScienceMag: [Editors' Choice] Quarterly picks from the editors: Four times a year, the Science Translational Medicine editors select recently published articles across the Science family of journals and highlight interesting translational ties. These short write-ups identify common links between disparate diseases; technologies and research [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/j180wd20:00
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Oxford-Astra Covid Vaccine Review to Start in Europe → https://is.gd/H7D4eH20:11
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Biotech: Eager for a Covid vaccine, Trump now trusts drug companies he previously vilified → https://is.gd/ZR6RAd20:31
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: UK experts warn virus is out of control: British health experts admitted Wednesday that the coronavirus was out of control as case numbers and hospital admissions rise despite a slew of new restrictions on social gatherings. → https://is.gd/IZDjh720:42
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Suffering from COVID-19 science overload? This team wades through the deluge so you don't have to: Remember early spring, when it felt like we were all plunged into a crash course in epidemiology, heads spinning with terms like "R-naught," "flatten the curve" and "herd immunity?" Every new nugget of data and scientific insight [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/Phhmhb21:13
BrainstormUpdates for Guadeloupe: +1041 cases (now 5528), +15 deaths (now 57) since 7 days ago — World: +33312 cases (now 34.2 million), +775 deaths (now 1.0 million) since an hour ago — India: +18405 cases (now 6.3 million), +481 deaths (now 98616) since an hour ago — US: +12464 cases (now 7.4 million), +190 deaths (now 211406) since an hour ago21:20
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: School-aged children now make up 10% of all U.S COVID-19 cases → https://is.gd/Q8fbjV21:44
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Mental health issues double the odds of dying with COVID-19, study finds: (HealthDay)—People suffering from a psychiatric disorder could be more than twice as likely to die if they become infected with COVID-19, a new study suggests. → https://is.gd/UKkJUg21:54
BrainstormNew from CDC: Coronavirus [CoV]: Cases & Deaths by County → https://is.gd/yJtqEF22:25
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Mom of 12-Year-Old Who Died from COVID-19 Urges Mask-Wearing: 'Find Some Love and Compassion' → https://is.gd/h1YttH22:35
ArsaneritdTal: it was otherwise a very friendly place (live demo in making fresh tagliatelle) and we were only two guests, so I didn't want to go into any discussion and complied, I didn't intend to use my phone anyway.  I just found it peculiar.  She alleged that one of the guests she had had that year, from Bergamo, had her father die from a heart attack but supposedly the doctor had been told to write 22:59
Arsaneritcovid-19 on the death certificate, and that he (the doctor) didn't know why.22:59
dTalwell it does cause heart problems23:00
dTaland, well, you're the judge, but I don't regard being compelled to take off my mask as "friendly"23:01
dTalin fact I call that downright hostile23:01
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: HPV vaccine effective against cervical cancer: Women vaccinated against HPV have a significantly lower risk of developing cervical cancer, and the positive effect is most pronounced for women vaccinated at a young age. That is according to a large study by researchers at Karolinska Institutet in Sweden published in New England [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/oybyA923:06
Haley[m]%cases World23:07
BrainstormHaley[m]: In World, there have been 34.2 million confirmed cases (0.4% of the population) and 1.0 million deaths (3.0% of cases) as of 6 minutes ago. 648.2 million tests were performed (5.3% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.3% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.9% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=World for time series data.23:07
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: COVID-19 vaccine BNT162b1 elicits human antibody and TH1 T-cell responses (83 votes) | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2814-7 | https://redd.it/j2l3fz23:14
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Appalachian State tells students to 'remain vigilant' after student dies from coronavirus complications → https://is.gd/AxPBVk23:27
LjLdTal, then everyone who voted in Italy at last election was the victim of hostile acts!23:37
LjLexcept for those at polling stations with reasonable, if law-breaking, people working there23:37
LjLwho just forewent the part where they were supposed to ask everyone to take their mask off for identification23:38
LjLArsanerit, as to the Bergamo story, stories that go through too many people's ears are often a bit twisted23:39
LjLi suspect there's *plenty* of people around Bergamo who'd swear their relatives actually did die of COVID-19 :(23:39
LjLalso for the love of god please say Piedmont, i have a terrible pet peeve with non-English names being kept such even when one is speaking English, out of some misguided attempt to be more "correct" towards the locals. i'm sure you just said it without thinking but i really just have to point it out anyway23:41
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Low risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission by fomites in real-life conditions → https://is.gd/3toKil23:49
iphonyLjL: if someone was exposed and end up + , maybe with no symptoms, how many days since the exposure before typically a PCR test would show + ?23:49
LjLiphony, i'd say a couple usually, but i have no data. i know 5 days is the time when on average the most virus is being shed, so the PCR would also be the most positive23:52
LjLbut i'm not sure when it *starts* being shed23:53
LjLbased on incidents that have happened (like with football teams here recently), though, i'd say 2-3 days23:53
iphonyor does it shed more when someone has symptoms?23:53
iphonyguess I read at the time right before and 1st symptoms it is at its peak, if there Are symptoms23:54
iphonythey started a new system here with 4 tiers for 7 day average for various things that can open/close, thinking about it, I believe this is a 'herd immunity' system, as there is no provision for full stay@home, unless they throw away the tiers if there is another huge spike23:57
LjLi think it sheds more the day(s) right before symptoms, or when symptoms are starting23:58
LjLthere must be something about that on https://covid19.specops.network since i definitely saw studies about that23:58
iphonybut if there are no symptoms? then 23:58
LjLwell then i'd still assume an average of 5 days after, but i'd be less sure23:58
LjLi mean 5 days for the peak23:59
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: More Evidence That Vitamin D Sufficiency Equals Less Severe COVID-19 → https://is.gd/m4iYME23:59

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