libera/##covid-19/ Friday, 2020-10-16

BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: WHO study says remdesivir did not reduce mortality in COVID-19 patients - FT → https://is.gd/PKpoOo00:06
zini[m]<de-facto "the probability for a SARS-CoV-2"> youre sure of this?00:10
de-factoi just took the IFR from their paper LOG10[IFR] = -3.24(0.07) + 0.0524(0.0013) * age00:12
de-factoso yeah thats the same as  IFR(age) = Exp[Log[2] age / 5.75] / 1862 in percent with the doubling age being 5.75 years, so IFR[x + 5.75] / IFR[x] = 2 should be true for all ages x, yet data for younger may be less statistically secured so i would go with x>60 or such00:15
de-factozini[m], why are you asking?00:15
BrainstormNew from StatNews: The Readout LOUD: Listen: A big week for pausing studies, pharma’s statehouse spending, & how HBCUs are approaching Covid-19 trials → https://is.gd/uXxrqx00:17
zini[m]<de-facto "zini, why are you asking?"> sounds like an easier way to remember approximate death rates00:17
zini[m]but it must cut off at a certain age? Like if somebody is 105, I imagine their risk isn't that much higher than someone who is 85.00:18
de-factoyeah indeed yet keep in mind that infections are not so easy to know, there are always undetected infections not appearing as cases00:18
de-factoso InfectionFatalityRatio = Fatalities / Infecitons < CaseFatalityRatio = Fatalities / Cases because Infections > Cases00:20
BrainstormUpdates for US: +2779 cases (now 8.2 million), +31 deaths (now 222682) since 31 minutes ago00:20
de-factoyeah there probably is a cut off, but again for such old people the data points are so rare that it probably is not secured there00:20
de-factoI did a fit of the data from https://github.com/mbevand/covid19-age-stratified-ifr#comparing-covid-19-to-seasonal-influenza and got this https://imgur.com/a/KNpH0qZ 00:24
de-factoso data points for oldest were maybe around ~95 or such? yet those dataset were not nearly thoroughly selected as that paper did, resulting exponential had quite a similar curve though00:25
de-factoi would go with 60 < age < 90 or such00:27
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): British government announces tougher coronavirus restrictions for London; indoor gatherings banned → https://is.gd/OL0cBR00:27
de-factoif you want something easy to remember you can go with IFR[age] = Exp[Log[2] age / 6] / 1200 in percent, that is the same as above within a 0.7% for 60 < age < 9000:36
dTal...can I have something easy to forget instead00:38
zini[m]<de-facto "if you want something easy to re"> ah, I see, you're not talking about deaths per diagnosed case.00:38
de-factonope IFR would be death probability per infection, afaik detected by seroprevalence00:39
de-factotiming is quite tricky due to the delay of fatalities and fading of seroprevalence00:41
zini[m]<de-facto "timing is quite tricky due to th"> that's a really good point.00:41
zini[m]post corona we still won't be able to figure out how many people actually got sick00:42
zini[m]CaseFatalityRatio = deaths / diagnosed cases?00:43
de-factoyeah00:43
zini[m]you've heard about the reinfections?00:48
BrainstormUpdates for US: +476 cases (now 8.2 million) since 31 minutes ago — Canada: +192 cases (now 192233), +1 deaths (now 9717) since an hour ago00:50
de-factoyes any updates?00:51
zini[m]de-facto:  i'm thinking, afaik00:51
de-facto from their list of reinfections at https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/08/covid-19-reinfection-tracker/: 23 reinfection cases, 1 death 22 re-recoveries, cases symptoms: 10 increased, 5 equal, 3 decreased, 5 unknown00:52
zini[m]4/7 corona viruses that i've looked into are confirmed to be able to reinfect humans (the ~4 common cold/influenza ones)00:52
zini[m]and ppl can get more or less sick from covid19 the 2nd time00:53
zini[m]the true death rate, barring vaccine/antivirals would be higher due to reinfections00:53
zini[m]i have no evidence for this: i think the reinfection rate is higher, but that is based on anecdotes00:54
zini[m]good link00:54
de-factoyeah its anecdotal case reports, probably biased (i guess its hard to detect asymptomatic reinfections), so not representative but a start of a collection of individual stories00:56
de-facto%title https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-10-coronavirus-reinfections-real-pandemic.html <-- nice there is a new article01:03
Brainstormde-facto: From medicalxpress.com: Coronavirus reinfections are real. Here's what that means for controlling the pandemic01:03
de-facto%title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30783-0/fulltext <-- also a good01:03
Brainstormde-facto: From www.thelancet.com: What reinfections mean for COVID-19 - The Lancet Infectious Diseases01:03
zini[m]de-facto: I read the article, what do they mean theres no immune response in the reinfection? One person died from reinfection01:16
de-factothere is immune reaction on reinfection01:18
de-factoif a reinfection occurs the first infection must have been thought off more or less successfully, hence on second infection immune reaction also occurs, but potentially with slightly different result01:19
zini[m]"Iwasaki believes the answer is no because, at least so far, reinfected people have had an immune response to the second infection, suggesting the virus has not developed a way around immune defenses."01:20
zini[m]is from https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-10-coronavirus-reinfections-real-pandemic.html01:20
zini[m]oops01:21
zini[m]dyslexia01:21
de-factoalso there might be other factors involved, one (speculative) extreme example: someone assumes complete immunity from first diagnosed infection and behaves not careful anymore, risking a second infection with quite a high initial dose01:24
de-factoor the other way around: being extra careful 01:25
de-factoot other circumstances changing, its not representative or even comparable i would guess01:25
de-factoother than it is documented that it can occur and also can be more severe the second time01:25
de-factobut that does not tell anything about the majority of cases or such01:26
zini[m]tru01:29
zini[m]ttyl01:29
LjLzini[m], that statement involving Iwasaki sounds weird to me01:33
LjLIwasaki believes the answer is no because, at least so far, reinfected people have had an immune response to the second infection, suggesting the virus has not developed a way around immune defenses.01:34
LjL"There is currently no evidence that a variant has emerged as a result of immune evasion," she wrote. "For now, one vaccine will be sufficient to confer protection against all circulating variants."01:34
LjLwhat does it really mean? people would have an immune response whether or not it's a new variant01:34
LjLnobody is suggesting it has found a way to "evade immune response", it sounds like an answer without a question01:34
LjLbetter read the study01:35
LjL"The patient had positive antibodies after the reinfection, but whether he had pre-existing antibody after the first infection is unknown" ← and we should be ashamed that this is the case01:36
de-factoi think that answer was meant for the question one paragraph above about if each variant needs its own vaccine01:37
LjLde-facto, based on reading the actual study, yep01:42
LjLwhich Brainstorm is about to say has been added01:42
LjLor the Matrix bot, whichever come first. race, bots, race!01:42
de-factoif there was a study following recoveries tracking their antibodies and symptoms as well as testing for reinfections we would know more about their frequency, yet if their probability trajectories with time are unknown how to know which cohort size would be needed to observe reinfections in a region of given prevalence01:42
LjLde-facto, even without a dedicated study, just friggin' antibody tests everybody when you test them negative and count them as a recovery01:43
LjLthese tests are cheap01:43
BrainstormNew from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Add paper on re-infections → https://is.gd/P8nUle01:43
LjLyou spend god knows how much in treating them, but not €2 to test them and see what might occur in the future?01:43
LjLeep01:44
LjL%ev congratulate01:44
BrainstormLjL: The verb congratulate is between 0% and 25% positive, between 0% and 50% negative01:44
de-factowhoops Brainstorm behave01:44
de-factolol01:44
LjLthe sentiment analysis database is crowdsourced ;(01:44
LjLand it shows01:44
LjLstupid crowds01:44
de-factoLMAO01:44
LjLmy tinnitus is loud and my usual webpage resort for when my tinnitus is loud is not working :(01:45
LjLalthough it's probably my browser01:45
ryoumaspeaker-test(1)01:46
LjLlol, what's that from01:46
LjLi actually use this thing https://www.generalfuzz.net/acrn/ extremely annoying sound warning!01:46
ryoumaalsa-utils01:47
LjLoh01:47
LjLwhite noise, noice01:47
LjLbut i already have white noise01:47
LjLa whole dedicated machine for it!01:47
LjLcorrection, pink noise01:48
ryoumathat is more bass?01:50
LjLi think so01:50
LjLit's "perceptually uniform"01:50
LjLwhile white noise is physically uniform01:50
LjLpink noise is more pleasant to most people (including me), but my tinnitus is very high-pitched, above 13kHz or so, so white noise masks it better01:51
LjLand sometimes white noise isn't good enough so i use that URL, which makes annoying sinewave tones around my 13kHz or whatever you select01:51
LjLat least most people who've heard it found it very annoying, but it still beats the tinnitus for me01:52
LjLargh01:55
LjLnow i'll need the pink noise because my white noise machine just ran out of battery, i forgot to charge it01:55
ryoumai have lots of white noise from fans, ac, air purifiers when there is somebody to replace filters (which not) all the time plus earplugs 24/7 and i hope that does not cause the disease.  perhaps all fans should come with turnable off inverse wave sound reduction01:56
ryoumaidk why air purifier mfrs do not jump on that01:56
ryoumabut white noise plus earplugs reduces stimulation overload while at the same time being too much white noise01:57
ryoumadoes music work for you or is that too low frequency01:57
de-factodoes it correlate with drinking or blood thinning?02:03
de-factodrinking water i mean ofc02:03
ryoumait's not like you haven't already thought of this or been beaten to death on tinnitus forums but just in case if you need annoying tones right now perhaps you could create annoying sinewave tones just by running speaker-test or similar02:03
ryoumaif speakers can do it perhaps music with strong harmonic overtones for the tonic at the same frequency.  if i am using the right terminology.  or does that make it worse.02:04
ryoumait says doxycycilne and carbamazepine can cause tinnitus.  not good.02:09
de-factobtw some say covid may be related to loss of hearing or possibly also tinnitus?02:13
de-factothats why i was thinking about blood circulation and oxygen transport in the inner ear02:13
de-factoalthough there may be many other causes too probably02:14
LjLde-facto, not that i can tell, it may correlate a bit with weather and mood02:17
LjLde-facto, at some point i ran a correlation with random weather stuff using Python and there was a p<0.05 on air pressure changes. but then i fiddled some more and the correlation kind of came and went without much discernible cause depending on which periods i picked. so i probably just don't understand how to run correlations and any real statistics.02:18
ryoumaif you tested more than one variable then that could be the reason02:19
ryoumajellybean xkcd02:19
LjLryouma, a lot of antibiotics can cause tinnitus, and then if you read tinnitus forums, virtually *anything* is "ototoxic". i don't know how much to believe it. i guess just about any medication caused tinnitus for someone at some point, but as with everything it's a matter of probabilities. but a certain class of antibiotics are definitely a common cause02:19
LjLryouma, yeah, i guess02:20
ryoumawhich class)02:20
LjL<de-facto> btw some say covid may be related to loss of hearing or possibly also tinnitus? ← there's a paper about that, but it's not been many (verified) cases so far02:20
LjLryouma, i don't remember the name but let me see if google tells me02:20
de-factointeresting02:21
LjLryouma, aminoglycosides02:21
LjLde-facto, i'm writing code now to use that preVIEW service to have the bot post every preprint that gets published02:21
LjLthat should cover it :)02:21
LjLwell, i mean any *new* preprint, but knowing my coding abilities, it might just print them all :P02:22
ryoumasomething said that hearing loss causes brain to increase amplification which causes tinnitus02:22
de-factooh nice hehe sounds like quite some work though02:22
LjLde-facto, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14992027.2020.179851902:22
LjLde-facto, hopefully not, i just search with "date:yesterday" (date:today seems to always come up empty) and then avoid reposting ones that have already been posted (which i just store in a list)02:23
LjLryouma, it's one theory02:23
LjLryouma, this ACRN stuff i use in theory was proposed as a *treatment* for tinnitus, but it does nothing for me... partly it might be because my tinnitus is too high, practically at the upper frequency threshold of my hearing, and ACRN works by playing frequencies *around* your tinnitus frequency... and partly because, honestly, i haven't found anyone who said it actually worked. but it's still better than a simple sinewave to mask the tinnitus02:25
ryoumai assumed you would emulate the website02:25
LjLryouma, as to music, i don't know how well it works for me... i think when i have a tinnitus spike, i really don't *feel* like listening to music. i crave silence, but i can't get it :\02:25
LjLryouma, i could never be bothered. i'm lazy. the website is open source on github though, so if it ever goes away, i can run it locally02:26
ryoumaok02:26
ryoumathat was the only reason i suggested02:26
LjLACRN was originally done by expensive physical devices, but someone just made a software version02:26
ryoumathis is possibly a dumb idea.  but could you make a device that puts the inverse wave into your ear?02:27
LjLno02:27
LjLfor me i don't think that could possibly work because i'm not even sure i *hear* that frequency02:27
LjLbut even if it were possible, no one has managed to make that work02:27
LjLit's not like physical sound where you can have a physical inverse of it02:27
de-factointeresting02:28
de-factoalso i wonder about if those "ringing ears" occurring for some vaccines may potentially related02:28
LjLit's interesting that even when two soundwaves don't *physically* cancel each other out, your *brain* still cancels them out if you hear them in stereo using headphones02:28
LjL%wik binaural beats02:29
de-factodo inner ears or related systems have ACE2 exposed or such?02:29
BrainstormLjL, from English Wikipedia: In acoustics, a beat is an interference pattern between two sounds of slightly different frequencies, perceived as a periodic variation in volume whose rate is the difference of the two frequencies. [... want %more?] → https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beat_(acoustics)02:29
LjLthese guys are a bit new age stuff and i doubt they work for what they purport to, but they sure show that the brain does that thing02:29
de-factoeek i tried those binarual beats, it caused me a tinnitus for half an hour, be carefull with that02:29
LjLde-facto, i don't know, but they found SARS-COV-2 in the middle ear and the mastoid bone in 3 autopsies02:29
LjLde-facto, low volume!02:29
de-factono it detuned my brain LOL 02:30
LjLfirst rule when you play with sound for any reason whatsoever: low volume :P02:30
LjLhmm02:30
de-factoi am not gonna try that again02:30
LjLfair enough02:30
LjLi've tried them a few times, they never did anything too weird to me02:30
LjLunless they gave me tinnitus :P but i don't remember trying them before getting it!02:30
LjLi don't know why i have tinnitus, but i've also realized that the quest to find out *why* i have it is just a flawed proxy to "how to make it go away"02:31
de-factoit was a very weird feeling to have those slightly different frequency drifting against each others (at low volume) and then i stopped it and still heard it for some time, got scared and went for fresh air, thankfully it went away after some time02:31
de-factobut its too scary for me02:31
LjLeven if i learned that the X medication caused it, it's not going away now, so it doesn't even make sense to care what caused it02:31
LjLde-facto, well that sounds a bit like you might be predisposed to tinnitus, brain-wise02:31
LjLdon't go to concerts :P02:32
de-factoyeah i am02:32
DocScrutinizer05tinitus are nerves firing without an acoustic trigger. So no "counter noise" will help to eliminate the nerve signal02:32
LjLmost younger people who get tinnitus are just getting from loud noises they could easily avoid :\02:32
ryoumai get tinnitus all the time but only for a minute or so.  i have always assumed that is normal.02:32
LjLDocScrutinizer05, it's true that a counter noise won't help, but it's also true that binaural beats do cause this sensation of "sound going away" even though the two beating sounds never physically meet each other - they only meet each other as neurons firing in your brain02:33
de-factoi had tinnitus for a while then began to eat foods that may have some blood thinning effect, around the same time when i stopped with smoking and it almost went away completely02:33
LjLryouma, it is pretty normal, but people with "actual tinnitus" usually have that happen to them more frequently02:33
ryoumai am still upset about being taken to a concert that made a point of being loud.  it just seems wrong.02:33
ryoumas/just/02:33
LjLit can happen several times a day for me, while i think the average for regular people without tinnitus is about once a month. but i know someone who has no tinnitus and has fine hearing (as far as he knows) who has them much more frequently02:33
DocScrutinizer05LjL: that's neurophysiologcal effect, a lot of similar approaches may or may not work for tinitus02:34
LjLhe kind of worries that it could be an issue, but i think worrying about it is more likely to be an issue. having them doesn't mean he'll get tinnitus.02:34
LjLryouma, it should be illegal02:34
LjLryouma, it's illegal in the EU to sell audio devices that exceed certain thresholds. which means that when i'm in the metro, i have mp3 players that give me NO AUDIBLE SOUND unless i change the locale to "US"02:35
LjLso, that's already ridiculous, because clearly it means the metro is making noise that's too loud according to the EU02:35
LjLso my mp3 player can't make that noise, but the metro can02:35
LjLit sure gets more ridiculous when criminally loud concerts are made02:35
LjLand so many people just don't *know* about tinnitus and they don't realize going to concerts can cause that02:36
LjLand then they spend the rest of their life wishing they never went, but there's nothing that undoes it02:36
LjLthis is something that people should be more proactively informed of02:36
de-factoalso for me it seemed to correlate with sleep deficit02:37
LjLsome doctors think deafness will be a "new pandemic" when these people who all went to concerts and listened to loud music with earbuds will get older02:37
LjLde-facto, the fleeting tinnitus? the thing that comes for just a few seconds?02:37
de-factonope long term02:37
LjLde-facto, ah sorry i missed that line02:37
DocScrutinizer05btw germany had their highest new-cases count in whole pandemia yesterday02:38
LjLde-facto, well about blood thinning, i didn't try foods, but i tried... something... right now i forget, but some herb that's supposed to have some of the strongest blood-thinning effects outside of actual drugs02:38
de-factobarely had it in the morning but then during day and evening, especially when not sleeping properly 02:38
LjLDocScrutinizer05, italy too i think :\02:38
de-factoDocScrutinizer05, yeah its quite scary02:38
LjL8800 today, that's definitely higher than anything we had before02:38
de-factowe had 6638 yesterday02:39
LjLde-facto, i have it a lot when i wake up and when falling asleep. that seems common02:39
LjLwell, we're the lucky ones02:39
LjLfrance and the UK hover around 2000002:39
LjLand spain hovers around siesta02:39
LjLmeaning i no longer understand their weekend-less numbers02:39
de-factoyeah but spain brought their R down almost to 1 still on high incidence though02:40
LjLwell that's something at least02:40
de-factoin Germany its almost R~1.4 or such02:40
de-factoyuck.02:40
LjLwhat did they do though? i have not stayed up to speed on their interventions02:40
de-factogood question02:40
LjLit would be nice if the bot could give some specific news every time there is a new government intervention somewhere02:40
LjLit does give such news, but just taken from random places every time02:40
LjLso we don't pay a lot of attention02:41
LjLit should have a specific source and make it very visible02:41
de-factoi think i remember something about Madrid but that was quite some time ago02:41
de-factolike more strict containment efforts02:41
LjLwell i know Madrid was the worst place both in the first and the second wave02:41
DocScrutinizer05de-facto: 1.4 a 6 days ago, I might think I see it dropping since02:41
DocScrutinizer053 days ago (if numbers stabilize) it was around 1.302:42
de-facto"Visualizing COVID-19's Effective Reproduction Number (Rt)" http://metrics.covid19-analysis.org/ sees it around R~1.4 and may be even on the raise02:42
de-factoits getting worse unfortunately02:43
ryoumaare borders closed?02:43
de-factonope02:43
de-factonot even schools or such02:43
DocScrutinizer05well, I've always been quite happy with my own statistics02:43
de-factothey want to leave them open as long as possible02:43
ryoumais this because they are child care?02:44
de-factowith R~1.4 incidence would double every 10.7 days02:44
de-factoso when Merkel said we should look in 10 days if containment measures are effective we probably are looking at 10k+ daily new cases02:45
de-factohopefully not though02:45
LjLthe region of Campania here (where Naples is) decided to close all schools. i think now they'll have a fight against the central government because the central government didn't want them to02:45
LjLi think that might be counterproductive02:45
LjLinstead of settling on closing high schools, which i think is what they should do, now they'll get mad at Campania and refuse to close anything :\02:45
LjLi bet02:45
LjLbut Campania, althugh i don't like his governor in general, i think he did the thing in the right way02:46
DocScrutinizer05[15 Oct 2020 23:24:47] <DocScrutinizer> ; 3673*(1.32^(13/4)) =         9054.9530902101273045884602:46
DocScrutinizer05[15 Oct 2020 23:24:47] <DocScrutinizer> ; 3318*(1.42^(16/4)) =         13490.5532092802:46
DocScrutinizer05[15 Oct 2020 23:27:40] <DocScrutinizer> auf deutsch, wenn es so weitergeht wie am 2020-10-09 dann landen wir in 10 tagen bei 13491, wenn wir 2020-10-12 nehmen dann 905502:46
LjLhe had previously declared that if the cases had become worse than x and y, he would close all schools. and so when it happened, he did02:47
ryoumawhat are those ratios?02:47
LjLinstead the central government scrambles to have emergency meetings every time02:47
LjLthey should already have plans. if X happens, do Y immediately02:47
LjLit should be automatic, automatic lockdowns of things02:47
LjLnot literally automatic, just you know. without emergency meetings needed02:47
LjL%tr <de auf deutsch, wenn es so weitergeht wie am 2020-10-09 dann landen wir in 10 tagen bei 13491, wenn wir 2020-10-12 nehmen dann 905502:48
BrainstormLjL, German to English: on german, if it continues as it continues on 2020-10-09 then we will end up in 10 days at 13491, if we take 2020-10-12 then 9055 (MyMemory) — in German, if things continue like 2020-10-09 then we will land in 10 days at 13491, if we take 2020-10-12 then 9055 (Google) [... want %more?]02:48
ryoumawhat are the 16/4 and 13/402:48
de-factoryouma, n(t) = n(0) R^(t/t_serial), so how many serial times it reproduced 02:48
ryoumaso to convert r to doubling time you do what?02:50
de-factosolving for R in R^(t_double/t_serial) = 202:51
LjLi search for an epidemiology package in pypi.org02:51
de-factoe.g. t_double = t_serial Log[2]/Log[R]02:51
BrainstormUpdates for France: +5346 cases (now 815030) since 7 hours ago — US: +3782 cases (now 8.2 million), +30 deaths (now 222712) since 2 hours ago — Canada: +177 cases (now 192410) since 2 hours ago — Netherlands: +14 deaths (now 6706) since 12 hours ago02:52
de-factoLjL maybe there is something like https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/EpiEstim/index.html for python too?02:53
ryouma17:44 <de-facto> with R~1.4 incidence would double every 10.7 days02:54
LjLi'll search for it if you give me a good use case to have on the bot!02:54
de-factobut thats only for R02:54
de-factoand estimating reproduction numbers02:54
de-factoso it depends on what you want to do of course02:54
DocScrutinizer05ryouma: 15 days / series-length of R_eff02:54
DocScrutinizer0515*02:54
DocScrutinizer05damn! 16 and 1302:55
DocScrutinizer05of a date 6 or 3 days in the past, to calculate a value 10 days into the future02:55
de-factoryouma, t_double = t_serial Log[2]/Log[R] = 5.2 Log[2] / Log[1.4] = 5.2 2.06 = 10.7102:55
LjLde-facto, i don't know, i guess estimates of R and doubling times would be nice, but i'm not sure i want to duplicate work offloop already does02:55
de-factothat Rt website got its sources on https://github.com/lin-lab/?q=COVID02:57
ryoumaok this perhaps (/ 5.2 (log 1.4 2))02:57
ryoumathen you pluge whateve in for 1.402:57
de-factoyeah i assumed t_serial ~ 5.2 others may use t_serial ~ 402:58
de-factoi think rki also uses 4 days02:58
de-factowith t_serial = 4 it would give t_double = 8.24 days for R=1.402:59
de-factoso even less02:59
LjLt_serial is the time between me getting it, and me giving it to you?03:00
de-factoyeah pretty much03:01
de-factoits the average duration for the next (consecutive) generation in an infection chain03:01
ryouma(progn (cl-defun my-doubling (rt &optional (t-serial 4)) (/ t-serial (log rt 2))) (my-doubling 1.4)) => 803:01
ryouma(my-doubling 1.4 5.2) => 1003:02
de-factohehe nice is that lisp? :)03:02
ryoumayes03:02
de-factoneat :D03:02
ryoumamy irc client is in lisp so i just did it on the fly03:03
ryoumai rounded03:04
ryoumadoubling time is more intuitive to me with the state 0f my brain03:05
de-factothis would be doubling time for incidence e.g. daily new infections03:06
ryoumaright what you really want is probability of being infected if you go into the community.  i don't know what to do to get that.03:07
DocScrutinizer05LjL: t_serial is the time between donor sneezing and victim sneezing. for "sneezing" insert any other timestamp relative to the infection episode03:07
ryoumatransmission time to next gen transmission time?03:08
DocScrutinizer05for example03:09
de-factoyeah but in practice they may take the average time between onset of symptoms for two consecutive generations03:09
de-factotransmission times often are unknown03:09
de-factothat may lead  to anecdotal events with negative serial time when the infected becomes symptomatic before the original carrier03:10
de-factobut on average it would be like 4 to 5 days or such03:11
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Justin Trudeau: Canada-US border will stay closed until America gets COVID-19 under control → https://is.gd/nMJwyS03:11
de-facto%title https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-0869-503:11
Brainstormde-facto: From doi.org: Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19 | Nature Medicine03:11
ryoumaprobability of infection if you go to a hypothetical typical place in germany then is probability of infection during event you go to, times proportion of contagious cases in population, or something like htat?03:12
LjL<CarlSagan> [NYT - Science] Remdesivir Fails to Prevent Covid-19 Deaths in Huge Trial https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/15/health/coronavirus-remdesivir-who.html 2020-10-16T00:39:1403:13
ryoumaso you need to know those two numbers03:13
LjLi think Brainstorm posted something about this earlier, it didn't say "huge trial" though03:13
de-facto%title https://www.microcovid.org/03:15
Brainstormde-facto: From www.microcovid.org: microCOVID Project03:15
de-factoryouma, ^^03:15
ryoumaoh right i saw that.  i was trying to figure out if you could calculate it yourself from available numbers03:16
ryoumain a much simipler model03:16
de-facto"We reviewed published research about COVID, and used it to make rough estimates about the risk level of various activities in microCOVIDs. 1 microCOVID is a one-in-a-million chance of getting COVID."03:16
de-factofor me it sounds a bit like microSievert the unit for radiaton exposure03:18
de-factolike such and such action is equivalent to X microCOVID :)03:18
de-factogoing grocery shopping for 60min would be 20 µCOVIDs for me here 03:24
ryoumaso germany is currently better than az but is getting worse fast.  this assume prevalence is hte key number.  (Reported prevalence: 0.02% Adjusted prevalence: 0.21%) vs. (Reported prevalence: 0.06% Adjusted prevalence: 0.57%).  but idk if that is correct and idk what is used to adjust prevalence.  something to do with testing i presume.03:24
de-factoyes its getting worse fast and current numbers are describing a state ~10 days in the past03:24
de-factoso real incidence already may be double of current reported03:25
LjLi like the past03:25
ryoumaso within 10d you could be worse than az03:25
de-factosolving for t in 13.2 1.15^(t/5.2) == 8.63 1.4^(t/5.2) gives me 11.23 days03:30
de-factothat would be arizona having 13.2 / 100k with R=1.15 and Germany  8.63 / 100k with R=1.403:30
de-factoso yeah pretty much in 10 days it may be crossing AZ if things progress like that03:31
de-factohard to tell how R will develop03:32
ryoumathe math makes my brain go haywire so i just figured germany prevalence was 1/3 of az so you have to double twice thus 20d from 10d ago03:32
ryoumashortcut03:33
ryoumais prevalence basically probability that somebody is contagious?03:33
ryoumai mean frequency03:34
de-factoyeah i guess so03:34
de-factodepends on what you use it, if you have X active cases per 100k citizens it would give you an probability to meet such an active case each 100k/X contacts03:35
ryoumathose are both extremely high numbers already.  i didn't realize it was that high.03:35
de-factoyeah its really bad in EU right now03:35
ryoumayes that is what i intended except that i don't care if you meet an active but not contagious case03:36
de-factoyeah well but that would be a constant factor then, e.g. an active case only being contagious for e.g 50% of the time counted as active case (arbitrary number for example)03:37
de-factoprobably one can just "pile up" active case time windows with a daily source of current incidence and a daily sink of current recoveries per day03:39
de-factothen count how many of those time windows currently are "active" as in piled up and have the active cases03:40
DocScrutinizer05is there such a thing like active non-contagious ? when does "active" end then?03:44
de-factoi think when not converted into severe or fatal case in time and tested negative03:47
de-factonot sure though03:47
DocScrutinizer05is the guy still suffering breating-insufficiency and loss of tasting 6 months after infection still active?03:47
DocScrutinizer05I'm pretty sure at least in germany there is _no_ reporting of recoveries whatsoever03:48
DocScrutinizer05and published numbers of "recoveries" are synthesized derivatives03:48
de-factowell but there isolation requirements that may include some safety margin03:49
DocScrutinizer05I'd guess that doesn't substantially differ from the situation in any arbitrary other place03:49
de-factoyeah probably not03:50
ryoumawhat units is prevalence in03:51
de-factocases per citizens?03:51
de-factoso its a number03:51
ryoumagermany is 0.02 cases per citizen?03:51
ryoumathus 2% of germany is cases?03:51
ryouma%germany03:51
ryouma%cases germany03:52
Brainstormryouma: In Germany, there have been 348816 confirmed cases (0.4% of the population) and 9810 deaths (2.8% of cases) as of 4 hours ago. 19.3 million tests were performed (1.8% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.7% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.3% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data.03:52
ryoumathat does not match03:52
ryouma0.004 cases per citizen have existed03:52
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Polling indicates growing public understanding about importance of using health and care data (81 votes) | https://www.gov.uk/government/news/polling-indicates-growing-public-understanding-about-importance-of-using-health-and-care-data | https://redd.it/jbrbty03:54
ryoumathere was a very obvious percent sign in the microcovid site that i missed03:55
de-factoGermany currently has ~ 54 400 active cases distributing (unequally) on  ~83 000 000 citizens, hence it would have a prevalence of 655 ppm  for active cases e.g. 655 active cases per 1M citizen03:55
de-factoso about one on 1527 citizens03:56
ryouma(/ 54.4 83e3) 0.0006554216867469879 per citizen03:58
ryouma0.0021 prevalence per citizen reported03:59
de-factoyeah if it was prevalence of detected cases since begin it would be more like 348816/83M = 0,0042, seroprevalence probably around 5-10x of that (as in undetected cases)03:59
ryoumaadjusted03:59
ryoumathus the reported prevalence isn't the same number as the active cases you are reporting (Reported prevalence: 0.02% Adjusted prevalence: 0.21%)04:00
ryoumaunless it's time delayed or somehting04:01
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: Chris Christie says he was in ICU for 7 days battling Covid-19, urges Americans to wear masks (10251 votes) | https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/chris-christie-says-he-was-icu-7-days-battling-covid-n1243589 | https://redd.it/jby6x804:02
de-factoactive cases is an estimate like active = sum(detected) - sum(recovered) since begin of pandemic where recovered is probably an estimate by RKI or such04:02
de-facto%title https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0225838#pone.0225838.ref00904:07
Brainstormde-facto: From journals.plos.org: A Bayesian Monte Carlo approach for predicting the spread of infectious diseases04:07
de-factoDocScrutinizer05, neat website employing this model for prediction of incidence per region for Germany https://covid19-bayesian.fz-juelich.de/04:08
de-factothey have the super computer resources to run such models04:09
DocScrutinizer05nice.04:31
BrainstormUpdates for Belgium: +10448 cases (now 191959), +49 deaths (now 10327) since 23 hours ago — France: +7655 cases (now 822685) since an hour ago — US: +1116 cases (now 8.2 million), +5 deaths (now 222717) since an hour ago — Netherlands: +958 cases (now 204912), +7 deaths (now 6713) since an hour ago04:35
de-factowow Belgium is crazy04:35
de-factothat would be equivalent to ~75500 cases in Germany04:38
de-factoi really hope they get it contained again04:42
de-facto%title https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-belgium-idUSKBN26Z24E05:02
Brainstormde-facto: From www.reuters.com: Belgium fears ICU beds may run out as COVID cases soar | Reuters05:02
de-facto.(05:03
de-facto"The federal government will meet on Oct. 16 to decide on additional restrictive measures."05:06
de-factohopefully they can do something about it05:06
de-factoDamn +7334 for Germany today, thats beyond all time record05:19
de-facto9.5% increase in new cases relative to yesterday05:20
de-factoso really about to double in 10 days05:20
DocScrutinizer05de-facto: new all time record after spring was yesterday05:23
de-factoyeah and today05:24
DocScrutinizer05day to day ratios tell nothing really05:24
de-facto(7334-6638)/6638 ~ 10.5%05:24
DocScrutinizer05but 10% is within range of real average R_eff05:25
DocScrutinizer05happens to be05:25
DocScrutinizer05from today to tomorrow you'll see even a drop I guess05:25
de-factoR^(1/4) = 1.1 would be R=1.46 or R^(1/5.2) = 1.1 would be R=1.6405:28
DocScrutinizer05day to day ratios tell nothing really05:28
DocScrutinizer05all you get from that is excitement about random noise05:30
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Physical Activity Decreases the Prevalence of COVID-19-associated Hospitalization: Brazil EXTRA Study (82 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.14.20212704v1 | https://redd.it/jbm0yt05:30
de-facto6th Sept smoothed cases n(0) ~ 1281, 34 days later on 10th Oct n(34) ~ 3976, so R = (3976/1281)^(5.2/34) = 1.19 or R =  (3976/1281)^(4/34) = 1.14 on average but it seems its an increaseing R=1.04 to R=1.27 so a current value of R=1.4 seems plausible 05:40
de-factoAt begin of Sept it was around R=1 (a little plateau), then continuously increased ever since05:42
DocScrutinizer05well, my statistics look a tiny bit different but similar http://reisenweber.net/et_al/covid/covid19_statistics.htm05:44
DocScrutinizer05I'm eagerly waiting for new data to see if the extremum in R_eff at 2020-10-09 solidifies05:46
de-factobtw i think i have to correct my statement about all time high, the 7334 cases distribute over the very last few days, so it cant be compared to the all time high in the first wave for a single day of 655405:49
de-factoDocScrutinizer05, may i write you a private message?05:52
DocScrutinizer05sure05:54
BrainstormNew from EurekAlert!: COVID: women are less likely to put themselves in danger: Women's attitudes and behaviors may have contributed to their reduced vulnerability and mortality. A survey conducted in 8 OECD countries shows that they consider the Coronavirus a more serious problem than men, are more likely to approve health policies and less likely to [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/Hgk94q06:30
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Repurposed antiviral drugs for COVID-19; interim WHO SOLIDARITY trial results (81 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.15.20209817v1 | https://redd.it/jbx57907:03
BrainstormUpdates for Lombardy, Italy: +2067 cases (now 118711), +26 deaths (now 17037) since a day ago — France: +7656 cases (now 830341), +11 deaths (now 33136) since 2 hours ago — Netherlands: +1965 cases (now 206877), +8 deaths (now 6721) since 2 hours ago — United Kingdom: +1417 cases (now 675039) since 13 hours ago07:21
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: An experimental trial of recombinant human interferon alpha nasal drops to prevent coronavirus disease 2019 in medical staff in an epidemic area (82 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.11.20061473v2 | https://redd.it/jbuixy07:33
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Europe Surpasses U.S. In Covid-19 Cases Per Capita w/ 2nd Wave, Epidemiologists Warning U.S. of 3rd Wave. → https://is.gd/RMmqXO08:11
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express (Health): Life-style: Matters of the Mind: Pandemic 2020, a truly life-changing experience → https://is.gd/5OIzsO08:22
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Preliminary results find COVID-19 vaccine candidate based on inactivated SARS-CoV-2 virus is safe: A Chinese COVID-19 vaccine candidate based on the inactivated whole SARS-CoV-2 virus (BBIBP-CorV) is safe and elicits an antibody response, findings from a small early-phase randomised clinical trial published today in The Lancet [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/EbpX6F09:41
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Storms, covid raise fear of worst North Korea famine since 1990s → https://is.gd/TR8Swz09:52
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: (news): Coronavirus testing lab 'chaotic and dangerous', scientist claims → https://is.gd/C6SpkO10:36
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Last night out for French cities ahead of virus curfew: Millions of French people prepared Friday to enjoy a last night of freedom before a COVID-19 curfew in Paris and other large cities, after officials warned that new efforts were needed to curb an alarming surge in new cases. → https://is.gd/k39ZXt10:48
BrainstormUpdates for US: +591 cases (now 8.2 million), +10 deaths (now 222727) since 6 hours ago10:52
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: US election wrap, October 16: Trump, Biden clash on covid response in separate town halls → https://is.gd/f37MXr10:58
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Aussies eye end to lockdown as virus numbers tumble: Australians living under lockdown in the southeast of the country are eyeing a return of freedoms this weekend as coronavirus numbers reached a four-month low Friday. → https://is.gd/oFMysk11:09
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Denmark to kill over 1 million mink to check Covid-19 spread → https://is.gd/WW6Yia11:20
BrainstormUpdates for US: +2182 cases (now 8.2 million), +27 deaths (now 222754) since 33 minutes ago11:22
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: 'Sweet 16' party becomes 'superspreader' event in New York: A 16th birthday party in New York state became a super-spreader event with dozens of attendees contracting coronavirus, according to officials. → https://is.gd/Y2oTRs11:32
BrainstormNew from ProPublica: Pennsylvania’s Rejection of 372,000 Ballot Applications Bewilders Voters and Strains Election Staff: by Ryan McCarthy and Derek Willis , ProPublica, and Jonathan Lai , The Philadelphia Inquirer ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/XlfQrV11:54
BrainstormNew from BMJ: Covid-19: Experts recommend two week circuit break to reduce transmission in the UK: A two week lockdown in the UK could “put the epidemic back by around 28 days or more,” the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) has said.Documents published this week1 show... → https://is.gd/YtEMbh12:16
BrainstormUpdates for Switzerland: +3105 cases (now 74422), +5 deaths (now 2120) since 17 hours ago12:37
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Remdesivir has 'little or no effect' on Covid-19 mortality: WHO study: The antiviral drug remdesivir, considered one of the most promising Covid-19 treatments, turns out to do little to prevent deaths from the disease, according to a WHO-backed study. → https://is.gd/wNbW5z12:38
BrainstormUpdates for US: +35 cases (now 8.2 million) since an hour ago12:52
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: SARS-CoV-2 triggers inflammatory responses and cell death through caspase-8 activation (82 votes) | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41392-020-00334-0 | https://redd.it/jc489w13:09
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Pfizer sees emergency use filing for Covid-19 vaccine after US election → https://is.gd/g9A4jv13:33
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Imposing coronavirus lockdown unconstitutional: Trump → https://is.gd/FipWWV13:55
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: 5 things to know before the stock market opens Friday: U.S. stock futures rose Friday, with Pfizer up after saying it could apply for FDA emergency use authorization for its Covid-19 vaccine candidate in late November. → https://is.gd/G9OTY214:06
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: China rapidly expands use of experimental COVID-19 vaccines → https://is.gd/pMzIWW14:17
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Around a third of infants with COVID-19 may have caught it from mother: Environmental exposure to SARS-CoV-2 was responsible for the majority of infections detected in newborn infants in an analysis of 176 reported cases. However, the findings, published in Nature Communications, suggest that 30% of the reported cases may have [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/XM8LAL14:28
Haley[m]%cases usa14:33
BrainstormHaley[m]: In US, there have been 8.2 million confirmed cases (2.5% of the population) and 222781 deaths (2.7% of cases) as of 16 minutes ago. 122.6 million tests were performed (6.7% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.0% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 4.0% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data.14:33
Haley[m]%cases world14:34
BrainstormHaley[m]: In World, there have been 39.4 million confirmed cases (0.5% of the population) and 1.1 million deaths (2.8% of cases) as of 17 minutes ago. 728.0 million tests were performed (5.4% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.3% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=World for time series data.14:34
Haley[m]%cases france14:34
BrainstormHaley[m]: In France, there have been 818707 confirmed cases (1.2% of the population) and 33125 deaths (4.0% of cases) as of 7 hours ago. 12.7 million tests were performed (6.4% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=France for time series data.14:34
BrainstormUpdates for Netherlands: +5061 cases (now 211938) since 7 hours ago — US: +708 cases (now 8.2 million), +27 deaths (now 222781) since an hour ago14:37
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: 5 things to know before the stock market opens Friday: U.S. stock futures rose Friday, with Pfizer up after saying it could apply for FDA emergency use authorization for its Covid-19 vaccine candidate in late November. → https://is.gd/G9OTY214:39
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: WHO says lockdowns should be short and sharp—here are 4 other essential COVID-19 strategies: Last week the World Health Organization's special envoy on COVID-19, David Nabarro, said: "We in the World Health Organization do not advocate lockdowns as the primary measure for the control of the virus." → https://is.gd/FXUMYA15:01
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Pfizer plans to seek authorization for Covid-19 vaccine in November: company: US pharmaceutical giant Pfizer expects to file for emergency use authorization for its COVID-19 vaccine in late November, around two weeks after the November 3 US presidential election, it said Friday. → https://is.gd/79OzVl15:12
BrainstormUpdates for US: +2540 cases (now 8.2 million), +50 deaths (now 222831) since 55 minutes ago15:23
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Pfizer won’t apply for Covid-19 vaccine authorization before mid-November, CEO confirms: Pfizer estimates it won't have the safety data that the FDA requires for emergency use authorization of a #Covid19 vaccine until the third week of November. → https://is.gd/5cN8wC15:23
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Coronavirus infections still rising rapidly: The R number has crept up to 1.3-1.5, with growth of the epidemic still widespread. → https://is.gd/WWn3VG15:35
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Pharma: STAT Plus: Pharmalittle: Study finds remdesivir fails to prevent Covid-19 deaths; Trump’s $200 discount drug cards hit snags → https://is.gd/sK7Cvp15:46
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Post - October 16 | Questions, images, videos, comments, unconfirmed reports, theories, suggestions → https://is.gd/bR9RD215:57
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: A genetic variation could help explain the high rate of COVID-19 among African Americans: VCU Massey Cancer Center Director Robert Winn, M.D., recently collaborated on research that identified a genetic factor that could partly account for the high prevalence of COVID-19 in African Americans. The study, published in the Journal [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/q8esdB16:08
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: In recovering COVID-19 patients, antibodies fade quickly: In the absence of approved, effective treatments for COVID-19, some hospitals have been treating patients with severe COVID symptoms with blood plasma from recovering patients. The blood of recovered patients contains antibodies that act against the coronavirus. While [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/ewyMON16:19
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: States face Friday deadline from CDC to submit plans to distribute coronavirus vaccine: States have about two weeks to set up coronavirus vaccine distribution centers across the country to meet the Nov. 1 deadline set by the CDC — a monumental undertaking made even more difficult by the fact that a vaccine hasn't been cleared. → https://is.gd/3COEQY16:30
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: COVID-19: Weekly infections explode in Europe: The number of coronavirus infections has continued to explode over the past week in Europe, but has declined in Latin America, the Middle East and Asia. → https://is.gd/lWrKNe16:41
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Ivermectin: an award-winning drug with expected antiviral activity against COVID-19 (82 votes) | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168365920305800?via%3Dihub | https://redd.it/jc4aty16:48
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: NIH begins large clinical trial to test immune modulators for treatment of COVID-19: The National Institutes of Health has launched an adaptive Phase 3 clinical trial to evaluate the safety and efficacy of three immune modulator drugs in hospitalized adults with COVID-19. Some COVID-19 patients experience an immune response in [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/WbnPG416:52
BrainstormNew from WebMD: Chinese COVID Vaccine Shows Promise in Early Trial: By the 42nd day after vaccination, all had antibody responses to the virus, according to researchers. → https://is.gd/aIzr5E17:03
BrainstormUpdates for US: +5630 cases (now 8.2 million), +104 deaths (now 222935) since an hour ago17:08
BrainstormUpdates for US: +864 cases (now 8.2 million), +18 deaths (now 222953) since 19 minutes ago17:23
metreohttps://www.virology.ws/2020/10/15/we-missed-sars-cov-2-what-other-viruses-are-we-ignoring/17:26
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: An Open Letter from Pfizer Chairman and CEO Albert Bourla (83 votes) | https://www.pfizer.com/news/hot-topics/an_open_letter_from_pfizer_chairman_and_ceo_albert_bourla | https://redd.it/jca4pg17:29
BrainstormUpdates for Italy: +10009 cases (now 391611), +55 deaths (now 36427) since a day ago — United Kingdom: +14218 cases (now 689257) since 10 hours ago — Canada: +599 cases (now 193497) since 10 hours ago17:38
LjLMy sister went to the hospital for a hearing check. There was just one entrance for getting appointments, checking in, and... getting tested for COVID17:40
BrainstormNew from In The Pipeline: The SOLIDARITY Data: OK, we have some more to think about this morning. The large SOLIDARITY trial from the WHO has reported more interim data on its investigation into repurposed drugs for the coronavirus pandemic. And some of this we already knew, but some of it’s a real surprise. One drug reported on is [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/snSUgE17:48
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Belgian university trials saliva tests to track coronavirus spread: At the university of Liege in Belgium, a steady stream of students pick up saliva tests in white boxes from a desk at the entrance of the main building, a scheme creators hope will simplify tracking the spread of the coronavirus. → https://is.gd/mOOZy617:59
LjL+1320 today in just Milan18:02
BrainstormUpdates for US: +1685 cases (now 8.2 million), +28 deaths (now 222981) since 50 minutes ago18:09
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 described in 25-year-old: (HealthDay)—A case of reinfection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is described in a study published online Oct. 12 in The Lancet Infectious Diseases. → https://is.gd/QQhYVF18:21
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: These cities are among most vulnerable in US to COVID-19 mental health consequences, report suggests: Camden, N.J.; Allentown, Pa.; and Reading, Pa., have been identified as cities where COVID-19 vulnerability and poor mental health overlap, according to a new report published this month by Mental Health America and the Surgo [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/dVpzCb18:32
metreoLjL, we had outdoor testing and drive through for most of the summer, that changes now that winter is coming18:40
metreowhen I got testing last spring I was able to book an appointment which cut standing around waiting but that's changed a lot since then18:41
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Global daily virus cases top 400,000: More than 400,000 new coronavirus infections were declared across the world on Thursday, a record number, according to a tally by AFP on Friday based on data from health authorities. → https://is.gd/16uBQJ18:43
IndoAnonLjL: wtf man, 10K cases18:44
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: States face Friday deadline from CDC to submit plans to distribute coronavirus vaccine: States have about two weeks to set up coronavirus vaccine distribution centers across the country to meet the Nov. 1 deadline set by the CDC — a monumental undertaking made even more difficult by the fact that a vaccine hasn't been cleared. → https://is.gd/3COEQY18:54
BrainstormNew from WebMD: No Pfizer Coronavirus Vaccine Before Election: Even though Pfizer could have preliminary data about the vaccine's effectiveness by the end of October, gathering safety and manufacturing data would take until at least the third week of November, Dr. Albert Bourla said in the statement. → https://is.gd/JcFQJS19:16
BrainstormUpdates for US: +4586 cases (now 8.2 million), +64 deaths (now 223045) since an hour ago — Canada: +107 cases (now 193604), +10 deaths (now 9731) since an hour ago19:24
BrainstormNew from Scientific American: Don't Expect a COVID Vaccine before the Election: Health worker injects a person during clinical trials for a COVID-19 vaccine at Research Centers of America in Hollywood, Fla., on September 9, 2020. Drugmakers racing to produce COVID-19 vaccines pledged to avoid shortcuts on science as they face pressure to rush a shot to market. → https://is.gd/0h8lwj19:39
BrainstormNew from Scientific American: Coronavirus Drug Remdesivir Shortens Recovery, But Is Not a Magic Bullet: Medical staff push a patient on a gurney to a waiting medical helicopter at the Emile Muller hospital in Mulhouse, eastern France, to be evacuated on another hospital on March 17, 2020, amid the outbreak of the new Coronavirus, COVID-19. → https://is.gd/EMyuse19:50
BrainstormUpdates for Spain: +9765 cases (now 982723), +222 deaths (now 33775) since a day ago — France: +4429 cases (now 834770), +122 deaths (now 33247) since 12 hours ago19:52
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: States face Friday deadline from CDC to submit plans to distribute coronavirus vaccine: States have about two weeks to set up coronavirus vaccine distribution centers across the country to meet the Nov. 1 deadline set by the CDC — a monumental undertaking made even more difficult by the fact that a vaccine hasn't been cleared. → https://is.gd/3COEQY20:01
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: The U.S. was the world's best prepared nation to confront a pandemic. How did it spiral to 'almost inconceivable' failure? (10093 votes) | https://www.jsonline.com/in-depth/news/2020/10/14/america-had-worlds-best-pandemic-response-plan-playbook-why-did-fail-coronavirus-covid-19-timeline/3587922001/ | https://redd.it/jc7h2n20:07
BrainstormUpdates for US: +10818 cases (now 8.2 million), +110 deaths (now 223155) since 48 minutes ago — Arizona, US: +738 cases (now 229486), +17 deaths (now 5806) since a day ago — Canada: +592 cases (now 194196) since 47 minutes ago — Switzerland: +2 deaths (now 2122) since 7 hours ago20:07
BrainstormUpdates for US: +4527 cases (now 8.3 million), +29 deaths (now 223184) since 18 minutes ago20:22
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Fastest-ever growth in global virus cases as Europe tightens screws: Fresh restrictions loomed for millions of Europeans at the weekend after the highest-ever worldwide number of coronavirus infections in a single day, while pharma giant Pfizer said Friday it could apply for emergency US authorisation for its vaccine next month. → https://is.gd/zWDUBP20:23
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: US hoping for two Covid-19 vaccines by end of November: Two American companies expect to apply for emergency approval for their COVID-19 vaccines by late November, welcome news as the US hits a third surge of its coronavirus epidemic and approaches its eight millionth case. → https://is.gd/C4g1QB20:34
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Trump administration announces deal with CVS and Walgreens to administer coronavirus vaccine to seniors in long-term care → https://is.gd/SIW6G720:56
BrainstormNew paper: 21:53
BrainstormUpdates for US: +16403 cases (now 8.3 million), +175 deaths (now 223359) since an hour ago21:53
BrainstormNew paper: 21:58
tinwhiskersanother preprint21:59
BrainstormNew from PLOS ONE: Impact of truck contamination and information sharing on foot-and-mouth disease spreading in beef cattle production systems: by Qihui Yang, Don M. Gruenbacher, Jessica L. Heier Stamm, David E. Amrine, Gary L. Brase, Scott A. DeLoach, Caterina M. Scoglio As cattle movement data in the United States are scarce due to the absence of [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/YIVJPS22:03
BrainstormNew paper: 22:03
BrainstormNew paper: 22:08
BrainstormNew paper: 22:13
BrainstormNew paper: 22:18
tinwhiskersit's good to see we're starting to get consistent results from recent publications. This should help reduce the confusion people seem to have over what is "true".22:20
BrainstormNew paper: 22:23
BrainstormUpdates for US: +2313 cases (now 8.3 million), +56 deaths (now 223415) since 34 minutes ago — France: +56 deaths (now 33303) since 2 hours ago22:23
BrainstormNew paper: 22:28
BrainstormNew paper: 22:33
tinwhiskersLjL: ^22:36
LjLwhoopsies22:36
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Trump administration announces deal with CVS and Walgreens to administer coronavirus vaccine to seniors in long-term care → https://is.gd/SIW6G723:11
BrainstormUpdates for US: +3993 cases (now 8.3 million), +43 deaths (now 223458) since an hour ago — Canada: +108 cases (now 194304) since 3 hours ago23:23
BrainstormUpdates for US: +3622 cases (now 8.3 million), +87 deaths (now 223545) since 35 minutes ago23:54

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