DocScrutinizer05 | pooooh HEADLINE SHOUTING | 00:15 |
---|---|---|
DocScrutinizer05 | >>PROSPECTIVELY DEMONSTRATES<< ?? | 00:17 |
ryouma | expected to demonstrate in the future? demonstrates for the prospectus? | 00:19 |
DocScrutinizer05 | yeah, how's that a headline at all? | 00:21 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Robust neutralizing antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 infection persist for months (80 votes) | https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/10/27/science.abd7728 | https://redd.it/jjsxk9 | 00:21 |
ryouma | it is the lancet, home to papers they will go to great lengths to not retract (the one that sparked the anti-vax movement took 10 years to retract). macchiarini. pace. | 00:23 |
ryouma | wrong, oops, i got the wrong brainstorm | 00:24 |
Nov1-Vaccine | Hi everybody! | 00:26 |
Nov1-Vaccine | I'm coming to your state this Sunday. Hope your state listened to Trump's advice 2 months ago and prepared for the mass vaccination Sunday! | 00:27 |
Nov1-Vaccine | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-02/cdc-tells-states-to-get-ready-for-nov-1-vaccine-distribution | 00:28 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: Trump’s Operation Warp Speed and the Race for a Covid-19 Vaccine, Explained → https://is.gd/wuBWAe | 00:29 |
ryouma | https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/covid-19-vaccine-nov-1-scientists-call-full-release-data-n1239172 | 00:29 |
ryouma | even voa reported it https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/us-states-told-prepare-receive-covid-19-vaccine-nov-1 | 00:31 |
Nov1-Vaccine | so many mainstream news outlets reported it, it MUST be true! | 00:31 |
tinwhiskers | heh | 00:32 |
ryouma | well you are 2 days too early. voters will forget. | 00:32 |
ryouma | you need to get them the day before the election, not 2 days | 00:32 |
Nov1-Vaccine | now, some people might say there's a "correlation" with the markets tanking and promises of a vaccine, then the markets magically shooting up after overly-optimistic vaccine talk. Don't listen to them. They're just haters. | 00:32 |
Nov1-Vaccine | I'm giving you all time to make sure your states are ready this Sunday, as Trump asked them to be. | 00:34 |
Nov1-Vaccine | This is just a friendly reminder. | 00:34 |
tinwhiskers | ok... err. thanks. | 00:34 |
ryouma | the tongans and italians are prepared | 00:34 |
ryouma | becasue of you | 00:35 |
DocScrutinizer05 | Nov1-Vaccine: not funny, really | 00:35 |
DocScrutinizer05 | even while I notice the sarcasm, still not funny | 00:35 |
ryouma | Nov1-Vaccine is logged in via eu | 00:37 |
Nov1-Vaccine | hey even Joe Biden was all for the vaccine being ready early: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-covid-vaccine-take/ | 00:38 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Health workers and their families account for 1 in 6 hospital COVID-19 cases: Healthcare workers and their families account for a sixth (17%) of hospital admissions for COVID-19 in the working age population (18-65 years), finds a study from Scotland published by The BMJ today. → https://is.gd/Aw6F74 | 00:38 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +3791 cases (now 9.1 million), +51 deaths (now 233077) since an hour ago | 00:38 |
Nov1-Vaccine | "If I could get a vaccine tomorrow, I'd do it. If it cost me the election I would do it. We need a vaccine and we need it now. We have to listen to the scientists." - Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. Sep 7, 2020. | 00:39 |
DocScrutinizer05 | Nov1-Vaccine: what's yourpoint? this is no comedy channel | 00:39 |
Nov1-Vaccine | DocScrutinizer05, wouldn't it have been better if Biden made a probabilistic argument? | 00:40 |
ryouma | i didn't even get the markets point. are they being supposedly talked up? | 00:40 |
Nov1-Vaccine | Biden misled the public about the likelihood of a vaccine being available for the public early | 00:40 |
ryouma | that quote did not | 00:41 |
ryouma | subjunctive | 00:41 |
Nov1-Vaccine | Biden should have said there's no hope for a vaccine this year, and should have scolded Trump for saying we'd have a vaccine on Nov 1. Instead, Biden said he'd take a vaccine "tomorrow" if he could. | 00:42 |
DocScrutinizer05 | well, unless you mistaken this channel for #politics, I'd think we can agree on the bottom line "Trump lies and everybody knows" - next topic please | 00:43 |
Nov1-Vaccine | and Biden invoked "the scientists" with his misleading implication that we could get an early vaccine. "The scientists" make probabilistic evaluations, and they've all been saying that "probably" we're not going to have a vaccine until next year. | 00:43 |
tinwhiskers | hrm. I thought you poking fun at the Nov 1 vaccine release... are you serious? | 00:44 |
Nov1-Vaccine | no DocScrutinizer05 Biden lies too. He misled the public about the safety of early vaccines. | 00:44 |
tinwhiskers | because... I got some bad news for ya. | 00:44 |
tinwhiskers | let's not do this politics thing please. | 00:44 |
Nov1-Vaccine | it takes 2 Presidential candidates to mislead the public about the virus. | 00:44 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I don't see this getting anywhere regarding cobid at large. You're sure this isn't a topic for #politics rather than here? | 00:45 |
Nov1-Vaccine | it's a grey zone because in here we'd like to be properly informed about the virus, do we not? | 00:45 |
tinwhiskers | this is not informative in any way whatsoever | 00:45 |
Nov1-Vaccine | so what do we do in this channel when the 2 leading American figures are misleading the public about a possible vaccine? | 00:46 |
DocScrutinizer05 | we talk about relevant stuff instead | 00:46 |
ryouma | we don't try to influence the election | 00:46 |
Nov1-Vaccine | I would think that knowing if we should have confidence in the U.S. government's ability to properly vet vaccines would be legitimate in here | 00:46 |
Nov1-Vaccine | Biden suggested what I consider to be an uncomfortable openness to a "fast tracked" vaccine | 00:47 |
tinwhiskers | damn the ban list is full | 00:47 |
DocScrutinizer05 | bans are overrated. clean out old cruft :-D | 00:47 |
tinwhiskers | yeah | 00:48 |
tinwhiskers | might get LjL to look at that (nudge nudge) | 00:48 |
DocScrutinizer05 | and thanks :-) | 00:48 |
Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Covid-19: risks to healthcare workers and their families: Since the beginning of the coronavirus 2019 (covid-19) pandemic, healthcare workers have shown a remarkable resilience and professional dedication despite a fear of becoming infected and infecting... → https://is.gd/lPxVhw | 00:56 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: REGENERON'S COVID-19 OUTPATIENT TRIAL PROSPECTIVELY DEMONSTRATES THAT REGN-COV2 ANTIBODY COCKTAIL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VIRUS LEVELS AND NEED FOR FURTHER MEDICAL ATTENTION (81 votes) | https://investor.regeneron.com/news-releases/news-release-details/regenerons-covid-19-outpatient-trial-prospectively-demonstrates | https://redd.it/jjxmsz | 01:03 |
tinwhiskers | oh, hi LjL | 01:04 |
LjL | hi | 01:05 |
LjL | standard banlists are pretty annoyingly short | 01:05 |
DocScrutinizer05 | usually sufficient | 01:05 |
DocScrutinizer05 | given the fact most trolls change hostmask anyway after 24h the latest | 01:06 |
LjL | should i unmute all the unaffiliated cloaks and matrix cloaks that are banned then because they have probably changed | 01:07 |
LjL | i can't even tell when things were banned without sifting through logs because netsplits make everything appear as if it had been banned at the same time | 01:07 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I seem to recall it was mostly useless for some reason, but maybe you wanna have a look at /msg ChanServ help akick | 01:09 |
LjL | there's also a trick that some channels use these days that involves a newish type of ban that has a semantics of basically "ban everyone who's banned in this other channel", so you can have a channel, or multiple channels, dedicated to bans alone. it's just kinda ugly | 01:10 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid-19: Nearly 100,000 catching virus every day: A major analysis estimates the number of people infected with Covid-19 is doubling every nine days. → https://is.gd/lyjiFF | 01:14 |
DocScrutinizer05 | >>it's just kinda ugly<< indeed | 01:15 |
LjL | de-facto, the above (see https://www.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/research-and-impact/groups/react-study/faqs/ ) kinda sorta does what you keep asking for, i.e. random sample swabs, i guess | 01:23 |
LjL | one thing though "The antigen (PCR) test for coronavirus is generally considered the most accurate test to detect current infection with coronavirus." | 01:28 |
LjL | i'm confused, didn't we normally call "antigen" the ones that are *not* PCR, which would be also called molecular? | 01:29 |
Raf[m] | You're mixing up antibody with antigen | 01:31 |
DocScrutinizer05 | nope, I think LjL is correct | 01:32 |
LjL | If I'm confused with something, it's definitely not antibody tests | 01:33 |
LjL | Those are separate and mentioned separately on the very same study FAQ I quoted from | 01:33 |
DocScrutinizer05 | lately we see antigen quicktests type "pregnancy test" that afaik do _not_ involve any PCR, at very least not the way the "gold standard" PCR test works | 01:34 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I can't say if that PCR test involves usage of antigenes, but it's for sure usually not called antigen test | 01:35 |
Raf[m] | I have never heard it being called an antigen test, but what's the antigen? The virus is the antigen. So presumably it's some test that is directly measuring viral load, not antibodied | 01:37 |
DocScrutinizer05 | https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/diagnose-tools-im-ueberblick-pcr-antigen-antikoerper-welcher-coronatest-leistet-was/26298962.html | 01:38 |
Brainstorm | Updates for France: +4231 cases (now 1.2 million) since 4 hours ago — US: +3450 cases (now 9.1 million), +46 deaths (now 233123) since an hour ago — Netherlands: +1 deaths (now 7203) since 8 hours ago | 01:38 |
DocScrutinizer05 | antigens are proteins sticking to the virus | 01:39 |
DocScrutinizer05 | afaik | 01:39 |
Raf[m] | It could be a bad usage of the word antigen, regardless, the PCR test is the gold standard to determine current infection. Antibody works for previous infection up to a certain point. See Sethuraman 2020 | 01:39 |
Raf[m] | Antigens are proteins part of the virus, the antibodies stick to the virus by way of the antigen | 01:40 |
DocScrutinizer05 | the study clearly states they want to send out antigen tests to 100k people | 01:40 |
LjL | Raf[m]: "antigen tests" are also sometimes called "quick tests" because they can be engineered to be done on the spot, and indeed they're about binding to an antigen and not, like PCR, specific RNA or DNA. | 01:40 |
LjL | Here's the first description of them I found: "If the target antigen is present in sufficient concentrations in the sample, it will bind to specific antibodies fixed to a paper strip enclosed in a plastic casing and generate a visually detectable signal, typically within 30 minutes" | 01:41 |
Raf[m] | If you look at the icon of this room, the pieces of the crown of the virus are the antigens | 01:41 |
LjL | What is the gold standard is not the only thing that matters, and antigen tests can be useful. What is not useful is an institution doing a study like this mixing up the terms :/ | 01:41 |
LjL | Raf[m]: yes, thank you. And? | 01:42 |
LjL | Those are not RNA, which is what PCR looks at | 01:42 |
LjL | Being antigens, they are, indeed, what antigen tests look at | 01:42 |
Raf[m] | Fair enough, it's definitely wrong then calling the antigen test a PCR test | 01:42 |
Raf[m] | I was talking to Doc who said the antigens stick to the virus. | 01:43 |
DocScrutinizer05 | sorry, I was wrong. thanks for the update | 01:44 |
LjL | Ah right, yeah those would be antigen *receptors* | 01:44 |
Raf[m] | on that page you linked they do say this: | 01:50 |
Raf[m] | "Antigens are anything that can cause an immune response in the body, like viruses and bacteria. In this case, the antigens that the REACT-1 test is looking for are bits of genetic material from the coronavirus. For the test, a person needs to take a swab of their nose and throat and send the sample off for testing in a laboratory. The lab test that detects whether coronavirus genetic material is present in a sample or not | 01:50 |
Raf[m] | is called PCR (polymerase chain reaction). This indicates whether someone is currently infected." | 01:50 |
Raf[m] | that's why they are calling the anitgen test a PCR test | 01:50 |
Raf[m] | re: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/research-and-impact/groups/react-study/faqs/ "What’s the difference between the antigen and antibody tests?" | 01:51 |
Raf[m] | if anything I think the usage of the term "antigen test" should be discouraged - it's not very clear. You're right that in other context it could mean the rapid antibody test, not PCR. but it's important to note that the "antigen" being referenced in a rapid test is the proprietary part of the test itself which the subject's antibody is reacting | 01:59 |
LjL | Wait not the rapid antibody test | 02:01 |
Raf[m] | is there another test? | 02:01 |
LjL | It's true that it *involves* antibodies but it is not the test that tests for antibodies! | 02:01 |
LjL | Yes | 02:01 |
LjL | There are three things | 02:01 |
Raf[m] | are you talking about dried blood samples? | 02:02 |
LjL | antibody tests are usually from blood, yeah | 02:02 |
LjL | but nobody calls the rapid non-antibody tests "antibody tests", thankfully, even though they can *use* antibodies to make the detection | 02:02 |
LjL | they call "antibody tests" the ones where you detect if the *person* has antibodies circulating | 02:03 |
Raf[m] | gotcha | 02:03 |
LjL | see this site for instance which distinguishes between the three types https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/sarscov2-eval/ (and it's a useful site) | 02:04 |
LjL | "molecular" here is basically the classic PCR tests | 02:04 |
LjL | (not basically, it is) | 02:04 |
Raf[m] | ok, yeah molecular means RNA/DNA like you said before. I didn't know there were 3 tests, in that I didn't know antigen test was a "thing" | 02:05 |
LjL | the distinction is also made here https://www.fda.gov/consumers/consumer-updates/coronavirus-testing-basics | 02:06 |
LjL | "Currently there are two types of diagnostic tests which detect the virus – molecular tests, such as RT-PCR tests, that detect the virus’s genetic material, and antigen tests that detect specific proteins on the surface of the virus." and then it talks about antibody tests separately | 02:06 |
Raf[m] | got it | 02:06 |
LjL | i just wonder... if you can use PCR tests to detect antigens like the spike protein, instead of RNA, but i don't think so. but i hope something justifies the sloppy language in that FAQ | 02:07 |
Raf[m] | yeah it got me totally confused | 02:07 |
DocScrutinizer05 | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antigen | 02:08 |
LjL | DocScrutinizer05, at the outside, and that can bind to a receptor. so that certainly rules out RNA being an antigen :P | 02:08 |
DocScrutinizer05 | yes, absolutely | 02:09 |
LjL | meh, i hope the REACT study was executed better than its website was | 02:09 |
DocScrutinizer05 | antigens are unrelated to PCR unless in some late step of the PCR test they are needed as a reagent or whatever | 02:10 |
DocScrutinizer05 | calling a PCR test an antigen test is nonsense | 02:10 |
LjL | okay we all agree now, except for the Imperial College | 02:11 |
Raf[m] | you can combine antibody and molecular tests with something like ChIPmentation but that's not what we're talking about here, for example bind antibodies to the histone proteins and then use RNA-seq, etc. yeah in this case it's a total misnomer, the fact of the matter is I thought they were calling the PCR test an "antigen" test because they were measuring the active viral load | 02:11 |
Raf[m] | I learned there's a 3rd test so that rules it out. Yeah IC is wrong about that one! | 02:11 |
Brainstorm | New from Gazzetta Ufficiale italiana: DECRETO-LEGGE 28 ottobre 2020, n.137: Ulteriori misure urgenti in materia di tutela della salute, sostegnoai lavoratori e alle imprese, giustizia e sicurezza, connesseall'emergenza epidemiologica da Covid-19. (20G00166) → https://is.gd/RMtC5q | 02:16 |
DocScrutinizer05 | hah, I can read italian, it just takes around 3 minutes for one sentence ;-D | 02:19 |
DocScrutinizer05 | missnf words: tutela sostegnoai | 02:20 |
LjL | DocScrutinizer05, you're excused about "sostegnoai" because it's actually two words with a space missing | 02:22 |
LjL | "sostegno ai", support to the | 02:22 |
LjL | tutela is uh | 02:22 |
LjL | preservation | 02:22 |
ryouma | i don't think the space would help ... oh sustenacne? | 02:22 |
LjL | ryouma, it means support, but it is a cognate with sustenance | 02:22 |
LjL | "tutela" is a very latin word, of the kind that i imagine were used in legal discourse in rome already | 02:23 |
LjL | https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/tutela#Latin | 02:23 |
LjL | %w tutelage | 02:24 |
Brainstorm | LjL, tutelage — noun: 1. The act of guarding, protecting, or guiding; guardianship; protection, 2. The state of being under a guardian or a tutor; care or protection enjoyed, 3. Instruction; teaching; guidance → https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/tutelage | 02:24 |
LjL | this is a cognate but i didn't know it | 02:24 |
ryouma | .tr <it Ulteriori misure urgenti in materia di tutela della salute, sostegnoai lavoratori e alle imprese, giustizia e sicurezza, connesseall'emergenza epidemiologica da Covid-19 | 02:25 |
Brainstorm | ryouma, Italian to English: Further urgent measures in the field of health protection, support for workers and businesses, justice and safety, connected to the epidemiological emergency from Covid-19 (Google) [... want %more?] | 02:25 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: Coronavirus: France and Germany have announced second national lockdowns → https://is.gd/EnKXeD | 02:25 |
LjL | anyway this decree is very long but yeah it's all about support measures, no surprise lockdowns here | 02:25 |
LjL | there is something about GP doctors doing antigen tests (heh) | 02:26 |
LjL | and 30 million being allocated for it. but i doubt GPs will want to come even near them. they are already not answering calls. | 02:26 |
LjL | and a new "phone service" for positive people to do contact tracing, as they no longer want to have people physically going and doing the contact tracing | 02:27 |
LjL | won't/can't | 02:27 |
LjL | so basically it's left up to people who test positive to call this number and describe their contacts | 02:28 |
LjL | if they don't, no contact tracing happens | 02:28 |
LjL | this includes people testing as contacts with the app, they have to call this number | 02:28 |
DocScrutinizer05 | hah, same shit like in Berlin | 02:30 |
DocScrutinizer05 | >>Hey Joe, you recall we met 5 days ago in that shop? well, errr... I got tested positive and you should consider self quarantining and search to get a test too<< who would possibly boggle to do such a phonecall :-S | 02:36 |
LjL | DocScrutinizer05, no wait you don't have to call your contacts directly from what i understand, you "just" have to tell this special phone number about your contacts. then presumably they will... contact them | 02:38 |
LjL | but still, i bet for most people who test positive that's not exactly their first priority | 02:38 |
LjL | plus, if to test positive you now have to rely on your GP to give you an antigen test, well, that won't happen, so | 02:39 |
LjL | no more positives, no more problems! | 02:39 |
LjL | but then, we knew testing and contact tracing abilities were past their max. they said it plainly enough. so now they're doing the closest they have (which is not much) | 02:40 |
LjL | i'm still mad though because i'm sure they could have allocated more resources to these things during the summer | 02:40 |
DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: yeah, you're still doing better than Berlin. In Berlin it's actually like ^^^ | 02:42 |
LjL | great :( | 02:44 |
ryouma | is it an attitude of everybody including politicians trying to just do business as usual just reflexively doing whatever little measures they can to make it so they can keep doing what they always do? | 02:46 |
ryouma | i really don't want this thing to go into 2022. or longer. my health is really being hit hard by inability to do things for it due to this. | 02:47 |
ryouma | and even more existential risks all ove rthe place and i was already dealing with those | 02:48 |
de-facto | LjL, very nice thank you for linking it, i did not know about REACT before | 02:56 |
LjL | ryouma, i don't have those physical issues but if i think about this situation continuing into 2022 i can't imagine i get out of it with an ounce of sanity left | 02:57 |
LjL | i wouldn't say to only think about the short term, clearly politicians are doing enough of that | 02:58 |
LjL | but let's try thinking about just as long a term as we can without wanting to jump of a cliff i guess | 02:58 |
LjL | i don't know | 02:58 |
metreo | https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Philippines-Is-Getting-Ready-To-Drill-For-Oil-And-Gas.html | 02:59 |
de-facto | oh LjL btw remember you discovered that decline in antibodies in the UK COVID-19 reports we talked about with dTal? I think they may have made a paper out of it (if its the same data/people?) | 03:00 |
de-facto | %title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.26.20219725v1 | 03:01 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Declining prevalence of antibody positivity to SARS-CoV-2: a community study of 365,000 adults | medRxiv | 03:01 |
de-facto | they even mention REACT2 in there | 03:01 |
LjL | i was about to say | 03:02 |
LjL | my mind is a bit clouded and i don't remember if i saw the paper or what it was that i saw | 03:02 |
LjL | i was told about this by a friend | 03:02 |
LjL | de-facto, it might have been a different thing (just that reached the same conclusion) | 03:03 |
LjL | because the thing i saw was from studies done in blood donors | 03:03 |
LjL | the issue with that was that the criteria for donating blood had changed during the time they took successive samples | 03:04 |
LjL | so at some point people over 70 were included and at some point they weren't | 03:04 |
LjL | and i was wondering why they couldn't just factor them out, but it was pointed out to me that maybe the data was anonymized | 03:04 |
LjL | so this seems different if it's based on REACT2 data | 03:04 |
de-facto | let me see if i can find it again | 03:07 |
LjL | both of them should go into the links page now that they corroborate each other | 03:08 |
de-facto | page ~40 on https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/923668/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_40.pdf | 03:09 |
LjL | yes | 03:09 |
LjL | p. 42-43 | 03:10 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: New Zealand sends 500 military staff to bolster quarantine facilities → https://is.gd/P62bou | 03:10 |
LjL | i found it too | 03:10 |
LjL | also p. 44 has something about testing people <65 to avoid the issues, possibly | 03:10 |
de-facto | interesting | 03:13 |
LjL | de-facto, "Samples were tested using both the Abbott and EuroImmun assay." ← this is "interesting" because while EuroImmun's evaluation is "pending finalization", Abbot was "withdrawn from the evaluation prior to start" (and it doesn't say why) at https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/sarscov2-eval-antibody/ | 03:13 |
de-facto | hmm weird | 03:16 |
LjL | that page looked very different a while ago, in fact it had a different URL to begin with, so not easy to reconstruct the story there | 03:17 |
LjL | Raf[m], sorry i was rather snappy about the whole antigen/antibody/PCR thing, it was confusing because they made it confusing, was the fault of no one here. i am just cranky. | 03:18 |
de-facto | LjL, maybe it has something to do with this? https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31830-4/fulltext | 03:19 |
de-facto | no idea though just a quick google find | 03:20 |
Raf[m] | Understandable since I didn't know there was an antigen test separately. At the end of the discussion we were all on the same page so that says something for sure heh | 03:21 |
LjL | de-facto, argh | 03:25 |
de-facto | https://www.medtechdive.com/news/abbott-roche-antibody-tests-may-not-confirm-covid-19-immunity-study-finds/583610/ | 03:25 |
de-facto | well when i remember correctly Drosten said something about this in his podcast: all such antibody tests would have to be "calibrated" to a specific population testing cohort to find the correct thresholds for positive results etc | 03:26 |
de-facto | in particular the discussion was about if antibody tests in Africa could be simply be done exactly the same as in Europe and the conclusion was no not at all, they would have to be completely newly calibrated to the population there being exposed to a lot of other antigens etc | 03:27 |
LjL | de-facto, i don't really understand what that means. i thought just finding that they were sensitive and specific when compared to a gold standard ELISA test was good to go | 03:27 |
LjL | i see | 03:27 |
LjL | picking up things that you didn't expect | 03:28 |
LjL | de-facto, well, at least they have been using two in combination | 03:28 |
de-facto | i also dont understand the technical details, i just remember they discussed about this being a challenge for such studies | 03:28 |
de-facto | yeah indeed | 03:28 |
LjL | postit: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31830-4/fulltext may explain why the Abbot antibody test was crossed out of https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/sarscov2-eval-antibody/ and may make the results of https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/923668/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_40.pdf (p. 41-44) and https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.26.20219725v1 | 03:29 |
LjL | a little weaker | 03:29 |
LjL | nevermind me, this is my new middle ground between putting on the links page and just talking about it | 03:30 |
LjL | this way i can grep it in the logs :P | 03:30 |
de-facto | good idea | 03:31 |
de-facto | %title https://insight.jci.org/articles/view/142386 the medtechdive links to this study | 03:33 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From insight.jci.org: JCI Insight - Heterogeneous antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 spike receptor binding domain and nucleocapsid with implications for COVID-19 immunity | 03:33 |
de-facto | "University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center researchers cautioned in a study published on Friday against the "extensive use" of serology tests from Abbott, Roche and other diagnostics companies that only confirm the presence of certain antibodies and may mislead people to falsely believe they have protection against COVID-19 reinfection." | 03:34 |
de-facto | "While researchers contend the presence of the so-called S-RBD antibody is the best indicator of any potential protection against reinfection, they warned that widely used serological tests confirm only the presence of antibodies to the N-protein." | 03:34 |
de-facto | "Currently, more than 200 commercial and hospital laboratory testing facilities use these N-protein based serology tests for determination of potential COVID-19 immunity, according to researchers. They noted that as of Aug. 5, Abbott has shipped over 13 million serological tests and Roche is expected to produce more than 10 million tests for the U.S. Neither Abbott nor Roche were immediately available for comment regarding the study." | 03:35 |
LjL | de-facto, sounds like we shouldn't be getting antibody tests just yet even if we have the chance | 03:36 |
LjL | i mean, if we suspect we've had it | 03:36 |
de-facto | i would guess its not all antibody tests having this S vs N RBD issue though | 03:37 |
de-facto | and now that its known it may be solved | 03:38 |
LjL | de-facto, maybe, but that page listing antibody test evaluations has just 4 completed for now, i'd wait for more and for more clarification of this issue | 03:38 |
de-facto | acutally a few months ago i asked my doctor about if i could get an EUROIMMUN antibody test (if i pay for it) out of curiosity, but back then they said: "nope, sorry you are not medical personal" | 03:39 |
LjL | my cousin got an antibody test, because it was cheaper than the PCR tests her parents (much more at risk) got | 03:39 |
LjL | she tested negative but that's not a surprise since she had it after less than a week of potentially getting COVID | 03:39 |
LjL | (her mother tested positive, her father negative, on PCR) | 03:39 |
LjL | de-facto, well that may have changed now, availability and all | 03:40 |
de-facto | i hope they are fine? | 03:40 |
DocScrutinizer05 | antibody tests are just useful for epidemiologic purposes, they don't tell any useful info for the tested individual | 03:40 |
LjL | de-facto, so far so good. my aunt had fever for a bit in excess of a week and joint pains but the fever's gone, and my cousin only had fever for a day or two. i worry a bit about the husband because he smokes a lot and recently had surgery. they are "distancing at home", but you know that's very hard in practice | 03:41 |
LjL | DocScrutinizer05, eh, i wouldn't go so far. if i'd had fever and other prominent issues but for some reason i couldn't get a PCR test at the time, i'd try to get an antibody test. i'd want to know whether i had COVID or something else. | 03:42 |
LjL | (where by "for some reason" i mean... most people who've had COVID haven't actually had a PCR test, probably) | 03:43 |
LjL | my cousin's test was just a waste of money though. it was cheaper, but also useless. their PCR tests were €80 each, their public healthcare doctor declined to prescribe them, so they got them privately :\ | 03:44 |
de-facto | LjL, i hope for the best for them, so far may end all still well for them | 03:44 |
LjL | i can't fathom having fever for a week and my GP going "naaah, i won't prescribe you a COVID test, just stay at home and rest" | 03:45 |
DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: well, yeah, it might tell you if you had covid or sth else. But that's about all it can tell you | 03:45 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Canadian Children's soccer club hires security firm after parents rage against COVID-19 rules → https://is.gd/xej4ya | 03:45 |
DocScrutinizer05 | and even that is not a very reliable info | 03:45 |
LjL | well that's why i said we should probably wait until they're better validated | 03:45 |
LjL | but presuming they *can* tell whether i've had it or not... if i had had obvious symptoms, i'd want to know. maybe other people wouldn't, that's fine, but i would. | 03:46 |
DocScrutinizer05 | you however can't use this info for any further conclusions anyway | 03:46 |
de-facto | LjL i think you got a point, antibody tests should be used by scientists for well calibrated seroprevalence studies | 03:46 |
DocScrutinizer05 | it won't chance your life really | 03:47 |
DocScrutinizer05 | change* | 03:47 |
LjL | "needing to know" is an essential part of being human | 03:47 |
de-facto | very true | 03:47 |
de-facto | %title https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4418/10/7/453 | 03:50 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.mdpi.com: Diagnostics | Free Full-Text | COVID-19 Serological Tests: How Well Do They Actually Perform? | 03:50 |
de-facto | quite interesting and also their graph about antibody levels https://www.mdpi.com/diagnostics/diagnostics-10-00453/article_deploy/html/images/diagnostics-10-00453-g004.png | 03:50 |
de-facto | its their figure 4 in html (also available as pdf though) https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4418/10/7/453/htm | 03:52 |
LjL | i think i will make a "Diagnostics" section in the links list. for now i've tucked them either in "Science" or in "Epidemiology" if they are about antibody surveys. i will probably leave the surveys there but put *evaluations* of diagnostics in the new section... how does that sound? | 03:53 |
de-facto | so what would that mean? IgM going above detectable threshold no earlier than ~6th day post exposure to pathogen? and for igG it woudl be no earlier than ~10th day? | 03:54 |
de-facto | good idea probably since its an independent subject from epidemiology | 03:55 |
de-facto | evaluations of diagnostics | 03:56 |
LjL | i should admit that honestly i haven't a good idea what subjects fall into epidemiology, so i kinda put everything that had to do with "who are the patients and where are we finding them and how and stuff" there | 03:56 |
LjL | de-facto, if that graph is not just qualitative, what i would take from it is that IgM *can* sort of be used as a diagnostic as long as you've had symptoms for at least a couple of days, not so much the other ones. but that's assuming a very sensitive test | 03:57 |
de-facto | hmm maybe yet i dont have any idea about the reliability of that (also afaik IgM is much less specific than igG and how reliable that timing is idk) | 04:00 |
de-facto | since its the antigen itself causing the infection risk why not directly test for it then? | 04:00 |
de-facto | or its recipe (the RNA) with PCR | 04:00 |
metreo | it's more a question about amplification | 04:01 |
de-facto | oh yes good point | 04:01 |
metreo | this has changed at different times thoughout the pandemic (at least in the US that I know of) | 04:01 |
LjL | de-facto, why not... because apparently, doctors tell people not to get tested because there aren't enough tests or something (here, at least, and in my indirect experience). so anything that "sort of works" is on the table at this point | 04:02 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid-19: Nearly 100,000 catching virus every day → https://is.gd/pBraK0 | 04:03 |
metreo | https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/coronavirus-testing.html | 04:03 |
metreo | "This number of amplification cycles needed to find the virus, called the cycle threshold, is never included in the results sent to doctors and coronavirus patients, although it could tell them how infectious the patients are." | 04:03 |
metreo | fwiw PCR tests can be *incredibly* sensitive with enough amplification | 04:03 |
de-facto | i think at some point there is a cut off though because it may be unreliable then | 04:05 |
de-facto | like contamination or whatever, afaik they just stop at some Ct value and call it negative | 04:05 |
metreo | yes, though it's more subjective than a simple pass/fail result | 04:06 |
metreo | and so the tests are biased towards producing false-positives generally | 04:06 |
de-facto | yes their testing pipeline needs to be evaluated on constant basis afaik at least in Germany they need to pass certification | 04:06 |
metreo | in the US the CDC is directly involved in setting those constants | 04:07 |
de-facto | there was discussion about that and they have many ways of ensuring there are no false positives for the way they use PCR tests | 04:07 |
metreo | that's interesting | 04:07 |
metreo | would have been helpful last spring and over the summer :'( | 04:08 |
de-facto | i always like to show people this graph of Australia requiring 2080 PCR tests to find one positive case https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/tests-per-confirmed-case-daily-smoothed?tab=chart&time=earliest..latest&country=~AUS | 04:08 |
de-facto | so false positive rates must be WAY below that | 04:09 |
metreo | why is it a rolling average I wonder? | 04:10 |
de-facto | hmm probably to make it less noisy and a smoother curve | 04:10 |
metreo | never see it used much before | 04:11 |
de-facto | its just the nature of such time series data to be quite noisy, so it may look uglier than a nice smoothed curve | 04:12 |
metreo | yeah I guess, I don't like data transforms much personally | 04:12 |
de-facto | probably the raw data is in their github datasets | 04:12 |
metreo | at least provide a note why the manipulation was necessary | 04:13 |
metreo | they never do though :( | 04:13 |
metreo | smart people writing only for the eyes of other smart people | 04:13 |
metreo | plebians need not understand :P | 04:13 |
de-facto | its all available on their github if you are interested in reading into their source code and raw data etc https://github.com/owid | 04:17 |
metreo | I already have relaible data sources | 04:18 |
de-facto | LjL, ok correction, that graphic there is "This graphic is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent actual levels of each antibody." | 04:26 |
de-facto | so its not real data but only for demonstrating how the expected curves would look like | 04:26 |
de-facto | they link some sources in their section 5 above that graph there though | 04:28 |
de-facto | but it seems many write similar conclusions between the lines exactly as you said earlier, antibody tests reliability is not yet established | 04:32 |
de-facto | at least outside of calibrated scientific studies | 04:33 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: A country on lockdown with no cases of the coronavirus, has the first two cases brought by the United States. → https://is.gd/TpxD8o | 04:38 |
DocScrutinizer05 | now is this just me or is this worldnews stuff ^^^ rather void of any meaningful info? | 04:41 |
LjL | it depends | 04:42 |
LjL | i think some times it posts important "milestone" news about lockdowns and such | 04:42 |
DocScrutinizer05 | on what exactly? the _only_ thing I see is this foggy "headline" | 04:43 |
LjL | it doesn't post a lot of scientific news, but that's okay, this channel isn't meant to be just about the science | 04:43 |
LjL | then in some cases, like this one, it's not really all that useful | 04:43 |
DocScrutinizer05 | aaah, ok | 04:43 |
LjL | what do you mean "the only thing you see is this foggy headline"? what else do you expect to see? the bot sure can't post the whole article into the channel | 04:43 |
LjL | headlines are often misleading but that's not my fault | 04:43 |
LjL | if some specific source consistently posts cruft, let me know and i'll remove it. but not just based on this one headline, or even on *sometimes* posting irrelevant stuff, if there is also a decent amount of relevant stuff | 04:44 |
DocScrutinizer05 | https://i.imgur.com/ER4rjAm.png | 04:44 |
LjL | DocScrutinizer05, the actual article is the "rnz.co.nz/intern..." link just below the headline. in the old reddit interface, you *clicked* on the headline, and i found that a lot more intuitive | 04:45 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I mean literally on that page is no more than what the bot already posted here | 04:45 |
LjL | Reddit's new interface is basically crap but they are going ahead with it anyway | 04:45 |
LjL | literally on that page there are comments, if no one has commented yet, then there are no comments, but the main thing is the link to the article that headline is about | 04:46 |
DocScrutinizer05 | o.O thanks | 04:46 |
LjL | it's just how reddit always works. if you want an older but saner interface change every "www.reddit.com" link into "old.reddit.com" (or be logged in and opt out of the redesigned interface) | 04:46 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I'd rather opt out of reddit, but that's just me | 04:49 |
LjL | DocScrutinizer05, it is one of the few places that still has RSS, and very configurable at it, whereas many news venues have decided it doesn't give them enough ad views, or something | 04:50 |
LjL | and it often provides information well before it comes from other sources | 04:50 |
LjL | and r/coronavirus and r/COVID19 provide a lot of scientific papers for this channel | 04:51 |
LjL | sorry but i just don't see anything wrong with it | 04:51 |
LjL | i can change the RSS links so they always point to the old interface, if that helps | 04:51 |
DocScrutinizer05 | nah, nevermind. I just don't like reddit but that's my private pet about hating getting profiled and a lot about the terrible interface of that service | 04:52 |
Raf[m] | the funny thing is the headline was a bit of a misnomer, kwaj is part of the US | 04:55 |
LjL | headlines almost universally suck | 04:55 |
LjL | they're generally not written by the same person who writes the article | 04:56 |
LjL | and they're designed to attract clicks, not to reflect the article's content | 04:56 |
Raf[m] | exactly | 04:56 |
LjL | but this is true of just about *all* headlines on *all* papers, so not much i can do about it :( | 04:56 |
LjL | most subreddits don't allow editing the headline and they will remove your post if you do. i guess it would be nice if they allowed it to the extent of making it reflect the article better, but that would likely require too much mod-manpower | 04:57 |
DocScrutinizer05 | TIL: when seeing "r/\(.*\)" -> google \1 --> https://www.startpage.com/do/search?query=A+country+on+lockdown+with+no+cases+of+the+coronavirus%2C+has+the+first+two+cases+brought+by+the+United+States | 05:04 |
tinwhiskers | I just see a scottish man wearing a sash | 05:05 |
LjL | also i realize the headline *is* edited so i'm going to flag the post | 05:08 |
Brainstorm | New from This Week In Virology: TWiV 676: Tragic gene flow from Neanderthals: In this episode we explain how regions of the human genome associated with severe COVID-19 are identified, the finding that one of these regions was inherited from Neanderthals, and prolonged SARS-CoV-2 reproduction in an immunocompromised patient. → https://is.gd/E0LVVv | 05:09 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +21048 cases (now 368337), +132 deaths (now 11170) since 23 hours ago — France: +9110 cases (now 1.2 million) since 3 hours ago — US: +2820 cases (now 9.1 million), +7 deaths (now 233130) since 3 hours ago — Netherlands: +1112 cases (now 321103), +15 deaths (now 7218) since 3 hours ago | 05:09 |
LjL | i guess Belgium has decided to just die off, uh? | 05:09 |
LjL | if France is on full lockdown, comparatively Belgium should be on i don't know, state of siege | 05:10 |
de-facto | damn 21k cases is a LOT | 05:10 |
de-facto | there are just 11.5M people in Belgium | 05:11 |
de-facto | it would be a good idea to have more coordinated containment in EU | 05:14 |
de-facto | also they seem to buy antigen quicktests | 05:14 |
DocScrutinizer05 | Belgium is the new Italy | 05:15 |
LjL | Belgium was faring worse than Italy already back when Italy was faring badly | 05:15 |
LjL | their numbers were always scary, now they're just scarier | 05:15 |
de-facto | Belgium was the worst hit EU country already in the first wave afaik | 05:15 |
de-facto | indeed | 05:16 |
de-facto | damn :( | 05:16 |
DocScrutinizer05 | it's a disaster in Belgium | 05:16 |
LjL | http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy;Belgium&byPopulation=yes look, Belgium passed Italy on April 14 | 05:16 |
de-facto | how come btw? anything specific about it? | 05:16 |
DocScrutinizer05 | they already _are_ in "no control at all, collapsing healthcare" state | 05:17 |
DocScrutinizer05 | no idea | 05:17 |
LjL | i really don't know, but i know their government is *very* fragmented, they are federal in an extreme way | 05:17 |
LjL | Timvde may or may not know more, but is probably also sleeping | 05:17 |
DocScrutinizer05 | yeah | 05:17 |
de-facto | i feel sorry for them, hope they will regain control and bring incidence down again | 05:18 |
tinwhiskers | shouldn't you be asleep by now LjL? | 05:18 |
de-facto | it almost causes me physical pain when i see such numbers | 05:18 |
tinwhiskers | (I'm not trying to get rid of you, fwiw) | 05:19 |
DocScrutinizer05 | or you might say, they're just 3 weeks ahead | 05:19 |
LjL | but Lombardy recorded around 7000 today. residents are about as many as Belgium's. if it keep rising this way i won't be surprised to see 20k in one day, in, say, a couple of weeks | 05:19 |
LjL | tinwhiskers, yes, but i should do many things i don't :( | 05:19 |
tinwhiskers | :-) | 05:19 |
MatCat | If you like snakes come on over to ##snakes ! https://www.dropbox.com/s/dd5kwz7pffddl3o/caramel-motley-tesssera-male-small4cornsnakescom.png?raw=1 | 05:19 |
DocScrutinizer05 | /invite sigyn | 05:21 |
DocScrutinizer05 | :-/ | 05:21 |
LjL | no thanks | 05:22 |
DocScrutinizer05 | a comment, not a suggestion | 05:22 |
LjL | i've seen sigyn misfire a bit too many times for my liking | 05:22 |
LjL | (including k-lining my bot :P) | 05:22 |
DocScrutinizer05 | "has left this channel." should read "has left server (k-lined)" | 05:23 |
LjL | i did tell #freenode | 05:23 |
DocScrutinizer05 | ta :-) | 05:23 |
LjL | (but now someone who's probably a troll is asking what channel was involved and i'm just going to ignore them) | 05:23 |
DocScrutinizer05 | if it's not freenode/staff it's likely a troll | 05:25 |
LjL | but if it is freenode/staff it's *certainly* a troll :P | 05:26 |
LjL | *cough* | 05:26 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: France imposes new national lockdown as virus deaths mount → https://is.gd/BRanAa | 05:27 |
de-facto | I still wonder for most countries fatalities are still below their first fatality wave (fortunately), in relation to their cases second peak being hugely bigger than the first wave | 05:29 |
LjL | de-facto, if you look at the "bad" ones though, the deaths are getting very clearly exponential too | 05:29 |
LjL | i still think it's mostly due to different ages being involved | 05:30 |
de-facto | is it due to (and if to what part) a) more testing b) demographics c) better treatment d) delay in fatalities e) etc pp | 05:30 |
LjL | and you know, many so-called more vulnerable people being already dead | 05:30 |
de-facto | yes fatalities definitely are exponential curves in almost all of the countries with big second peaks | 05:30 |
de-facto | i am not so sure about the wearing off of vulnerables yet | 05:31 |
de-facto | afaik they may be better shielded | 05:31 |
LjL | it's hard to shield them well, personnel still has to be around, even if you have no visits | 05:31 |
de-facto | but also i read again about outbreaks in elderly homes (quite near our city here) | 05:31 |
de-facto | so unfortunately shielding does not really work it seems :( | 05:31 |
LjL | a) is certain, there is more testing and we're catching; b) i definitely think so c) not so much based on what prominent doctors here have said d) sure, but you can see how much delay there is in the countries where both curves are already clear | 05:31 |
ryouma | one thing is if you are vulnerable you ALSO have to deal with your health issues | 05:32 |
de-facto | basically i am wondering if incidence curves are not really comparable between first and second waves (due to large differences in testing strategies), how much more comparable the curves for fatalities would be between their first and second peaks | 05:33 |
DocScrutinizer05 | France at least recommends home office | 05:33 |
de-facto | probably demographics is the biggest difference between first and second waves in terms of fatalities | 05:33 |
ryouma | meaning second wave is younger? | 05:36 |
de-facto | yes i think so | 05:36 |
LjL | second wave is *definitely* younger. i'm not saying other factors don't play a role, but that one is an obvious factor | 05:37 |
LjL | (for now, at least, it is) | 05:37 |
de-facto | and that would make a big difference since IFR ~ 100% Exp[ Log[2] age / 5.75 ] / 1820 | 05:37 |
de-facto | yes for now, it seems median age of infected is on the raise | 05:37 |
DocScrutinizer05 | it is | 05:38 |
de-facto | at least in some places | 05:38 |
DocScrutinizer05 | since several weeks now | 05:38 |
de-facto | so that means prevalence is diffusing towards the vulnerable elderly and in their social circles of similar age | 05:39 |
ryouma | in what backs of minds or back rooms if any is it being said or thought that that is not a bad thing -- that there is some kind of social good or justice being done by the virus? and in which of those minds or rooms, if any, is long covid and personal circle considered? | 05:41 |
de-facto | actually those effects already could explain the differences between first and second waves, i see no reason to assume IFR itself would have changed e.g. due to mutations or such, i would assume its still just as fatal as in the first wave | 05:41 |
LjL | de-facto, about https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4418/10/7/453 a small caveat: i looked up the journal and it's actually dozens of journalS that MDPI publishes, and they are "author-pays" open access journals. i've heard not so good things about those | 05:41 |
de-facto | oh i did not know that before, thanks for telling | 05:43 |
LjL | de-facto, not only it's still just as fatal, but as the infection moves from younger ages to older ages, it probably has a LOT more momentum i.e. more cases to "transfer over" (yes, it could also be that there is more testing, but come on, when you look at France or Belgium, it's just an awfully huge number of cases) | 05:43 |
DocScrutinizer05 | by the way - I pimped http://reisenweber.net/et_al/covid/covid19_statistics.htm a bit, and I'm miffed about the sine noise escaping the 7d average smoothing filter now, as you can see on R_eff curves. Which is expected on extreme exponential (non-linear) growth but nevertheless hard to filter out | 05:43 |
ryouma | is it consensus that there will most likely be a safe-for-most and effective-for-most vaccine | 05:44 |
de-facto | LjL, yes makes sense that would mean we should expect a faster increase in fatalities than in incidence at some point when shielding is in the process of collapsing due to the load of the incidence | 05:45 |
LjL | i think so de-facto :( | 05:45 |
LjL | it's a pessimistic prediction, but i don't really make optimistic ones | 05:45 |
DocScrutinizer05 | ryouma: yes | 05:46 |
DocScrutinizer05 | re "more testing" doesn't really apply to Germany. It's the percentage of positive tests that rises, while total number is relatively steady | 05:47 |
de-facto | LjL, better to be surprised by better than expected outcome than not to assume that an effect making it worse may play a significant role | 05:47 |
de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, yeah but at the very beginning there were severe restrictions to testing in Germany, e.g. having to had contact to a confirmed case or being symptomatic or such, thats different now | 05:49 |
de-facto | during the time of the second wave there were not significant changes in testing though as you said | 05:49 |
de-facto | so its very difficult to compare incidence first and second waves | 05:50 |
de-facto | maybe comparing (delayed) fatalities may reflect a closer relation between first and second waves when demographics became more comparable (hopefully effective shielding can prevent that to some degree though) | 05:52 |
DocScrutinizer05 | >>difficult to compare<< indeed | 05:53 |
de-facto | maybe its not comparable at all with simple eyeballing methods | 05:53 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Next crop of COVID-19 vaccine developers take more traditional route → https://is.gd/AoYNrb | 05:54 |
DocScrutinizer05 | oh it still is, it just has different multipliers | 05:54 |
de-facto | but even those drift with time | 05:54 |
DocScrutinizer05 | everything is drifting ;-) but yeah, changing protection measures at entry of a senior hostal because e.g. antigen tests become available will have quite some impace og total_infactions/elderly_infections ratio obviously | 05:56 |
DocScrutinizer05 | impact too | 05:57 |
de-facto | btw i think the periodicity escaping the rolling 7 day average is due to the steep exponential raise, e.g. asymmetry of periodicity that more recent data is overexposed with exponential weight | 06:00 |
de-facto | well the data itself is accurate of course but the periodicity is amplified for more recent data points due to the steep expoential amplification factor | 06:01 |
de-facto | so maybe periodicity should be removed before calculating the reproduction by quotient | 06:02 |
de-facto | e.g. making stats about how much specific days of week usually are above/below the extremely smoothed rolling average and then divide raw data by a specific factor for each day of the week? | 06:03 |
de-facto | (arbitrary) example: Mondays are only at 80% of avg incidence, Tuesdays at 90%, ... Thursdays at 120%, etc | 06:05 |
de-facto | always wanted to implement that myself, e.g. smoothing with 7 sliding Gaussian kernels on "date mod weekday" but still could not motivate myself to write it in code | 06:11 |
de-facto | resulting in a sliding histogram over one week that can be used for smoothing out the periodicity on the raw data by applying it with an adjustable multiplicative factor such as "smoothing strength" | 06:14 |
DocScrutinizer05 | >>due to the steep exponential raise<< yeah, that's what I tried to say | 06:14 |
de-facto | i mean the calculation of reproduction by quotient of two sliding averages separated by one serial time is not meant to specifically address filtering out periodicity, its just a useful side effect that periodicity is dampened for a window size that is the same as the periodicity | 06:17 |
DocScrutinizer05 | my epidemiologist expert suggested folding phase filtering which happens to be one of the methods used in nowcasting | 06:17 |
de-facto | yes rki uses smoothed incidence for calculation of reproduction | 06:18 |
de-facto | or nowcasting yeah | 06:18 |
de-facto | what do you mean by "folding phase filtering"? | 06:19 |
DocScrutinizer05 | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_dispersion_minimization | 06:23 |
DocScrutinizer05 | phasefolding | 06:23 |
de-facto | oh nice | 06:25 |
de-facto | thanks :) | 06:27 |
DocScrutinizer05 | so *basically* it's exactly what you suggested above | 06:28 |
DocScrutinizer05 | we even already know the period time which clearly is 1 week | 06:29 |
de-facto | yeah for unknown periodicity bin sizes | 06:29 |
de-facto | yes exactly | 06:29 |
de-facto | if you restrict the bin size to e.g. only that 1 week i would expect less harm done to real peaks such as the tönnies peak | 06:32 |
DocScrutinizer05 | there's not much harm done *to* peaks, there is some harm done *by* peaks | 06:33 |
DocScrutinizer05 | you'll notice a "rebound" effect exactly one week later | 06:33 |
de-facto | what i meant is that "generic" smoothing without directly targeting periodicity will also wash out real peaks | 06:36 |
de-facto | so an ideal algo would leave the Tönnies peak alone while removing only weekly periodicity | 06:37 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Lombardy, Italy: +7558 cases (now 170526), +47 deaths (now 17357) since a day ago — France: +8993 cases (now 1.3 million), +18 deaths (now 35803) since an hour ago — Netherlands: +2039 cases (now 323142), +15 deaths (now 7233) since an hour ago — United Kingdom: +1549 cases (now 943824), +8 deaths (now 45720) since 13 hours ago | 06:39 |
Timvde | LjL: we're pretty much on this-is-not-a-lockdown-we-swear again | 07:08 |
Timvde | We have a curfew, and pretty much everything except stores is closed | 07:09 |
Timvde | And people can still have one close contact outside of their household instead of nobody, I guess that's the most loose rule which I believe should go, because it still connects households... | 07:12 |
Timvde | Add an exception for people who live alone, that they can "join" the inner circle of another household, at least you keep them closed off that way | 07:13 |
Brainstorm | New preprint: COVID-19 Disease Map, a computational knowledge repository of SARS-CoV-2 virus-host interaction mechanisms by Marek Ostaszewski et al, published on 2020-10-28 at https://biorxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.10.26.356014 [... want %more?] | 07:20 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_ITALIA: “Con un lockdown anticipato l’Italia avrebbe salvato 25 mila vite. Non ripetiamo lo stesso errore” Lo studio del Crimedim di Novara, il Centro di ricerca in medicina dei disastri dell’Upo, in collaborazione con l’Imperial College di Londra e l’Università Federico II di Napoli → https://is.gd/2F7rgF | 07:32 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +1049 cases (now 9.1 million), +7 deaths (now 233137) since 3 hours ago — Switzerland: +9 deaths (now 2167) since 16 hours ago | 08:05 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: Global COVID Cases For 29OCT20 → https://is.gd/OiN0sB | 08:25 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Analysis Shows Nearly a Third of COVID-19 Patients Have Brain Abnormalities → https://is.gd/83LKYr | 09:09 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Diseases, Conditions, Syndromes: How does the coronavirus affect the heart? → https://is.gd/Zc6IjZ | 09:18 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Short of medics as virus surges, central Europe sounds alarm: Soldiers in Poland are giving coronavirus tests. American National Guard troops with medical training are headed to the Czech Republic to work alongside doctors there. A Czech university student is running blood samples to labs, and the mayor of the capital is taking [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/oWOJ87 | 09:27 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Some COVID-19 "long haulers" experience lasting skin problems: Some patients with COVID-19 have persistent skin-related symptoms long after their initial infection has cleared, according to a new analysis. The findings, presented at the 29th Congress of the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology by investigators at [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/oEh23J | 09:36 |
Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Health: Is it safe to lick the ballot envelope? Public health officials take on the new challenge of making voting safe amid a pandemic → https://is.gd/rZ1xMU | 09:45 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Schools teach by text message as Covid widens Philippine digital divide → https://is.gd/VgTRXr | 10:03 |
Brainstorm | New from The Atlantic: Donald Trump, Coronavirus Hero: The far-right group Super Happy Fun America protests in Boston on October 18. (Mark Peterson / Redux) Kurtis, a young accountant in McKinney, Texas, likes the thing that many people hate about Donald Trump: that the president has left the pandemic response almost entirely up to local officials. → https://is.gd/xPJpL2 | 10:12 |
Brainstorm | New from ProPublica: The Questionable Line Items of Illinois’ COVID-19 Spending: by Ash Ngu ProPublica Illinois is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to get weekly updates about our work. Last week, we published Grenades, Bread and Body Bags: How Illinois Has Spent $1.6 Billion in Response to COVID-19 So Far , a story and [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/tt7SvC | 10:30 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: French students age 6 and up must wear masks in class: PM: French schools will require all students aged six and over to wear face masks in class, Prime Minister Jean Castex said Thursday ahead of a new coronavirus lockdown starting at midnight. → https://is.gd/aAdM1T | 11:06 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: France braces for monthlong lockdown as virus deaths mount: French doctors expressed relief but business owners were in despair as France prepared Thursday to shut down again for a month to try to put the brakes on a fast-moving fall coronavirus outbreak. → https://is.gd/kkC2xF | 11:15 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Merkel warns Germans of a 'difficult winter' as virus surges: Chancellor Angela Merkel told Germans to expect a "difficult winter" as the number of newly reported coronavirus cases in the country hit a new high. → https://is.gd/P2kHAb | 11:24 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Mexico passes 90,000 virus deaths, Argentina records 30,000: Two Latin American countries hard hit by coronavirus each recorded another bleak moment in the pandemic on Wednesday with Mexico exceeding 90,000 deaths from its outbreak and Argentina surpassing a toll of 30,000. → https://is.gd/KGSXIK | 11:33 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): United Airlines to begin trial of free passenger Covid tests on London flights → https://is.gd/hBT8cV | 12:19 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +9386 cases (now 145044), +12 deaths (now 2179) since 4 hours ago | 12:21 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Moderna says it's preparing global launch of Covid vaccine as it takes in $1.1 billion in deposits → https://is.gd/EKgPzR | 12:28 |
Brainstorm | New from ProPublica: West Virginians Were Promised an Economic Revival. It Hasn’t Happened Yet.: by Ken Ward Jr. ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published. This article is co-published with Mountain State Spotlight , a new nonprofit newsroom covering [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/FTdp6z | 13:13 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: All residents of Slovakia will be tested for COVID-19 this weekend. Keep your fingers crossed for us (85 votes) | https://dennikn.sk/2108914/minuta-po-minute-plosne-testovanie-podrobnosti/ | https://redd.it/jk7ibo | 13:31 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: COVID stress syndrome: 5 ways the pandemic is affecting mental health: In addition to its staggering impact on physical well-being and mortality, COVID-19 is also taking an unprecedented toll on our mental health. Numerous recent studies have shown global increases in the prevalence and severity of depression and anxiety as [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/zH1fyT | 13:31 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: France braces for month-long lockdown as virus deaths mount → https://is.gd/fIyOKl | 13:50 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: How the immune system deals with the gut's plethora of microbes: The gut is an unusually noisy place, where hundreds of species of bacteria live alongside whatever microbes happen to have hitched a ride in on your lunch. Scientists have long suspected that the gut's immune system, in the face of so many stimuli, takes an [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/qYTMHR | 14:09 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Coronavirus task force officials reportedly offended at White House claim Covid-19 has ended (10100 votes) | https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/coronavirus-pandemic-task-force-officials-white-house-b1404940.html | https://redd.it/jjzyi3 | 14:25 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Covid-19: A status check of the 10 worst-hit countries → https://is.gd/k0ebRZ | 14:28 |
ap4lmtre3 | If every single person wore a n95 mask, then the virus would not be able to travel and infect new people right. Hwr, the wld or countries don't have n95 masks. Right? | 14:28 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Testing sewage can provide an early warning of COVID-19 outbreaks: study: Earlier this year, a team of Yale researchers showed that the concentration of COVID-19 RNA in sewage mirrors the spread of the disease through a population. In a new study, they find that testing sewage can serve as an early indicator of an outbreak [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/v8s8hH | 14:37 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +7113 cases (now 330255), +25 deaths (now 7258) since 8 hours ago | 14:37 |
Timvde | They're gone, but as I understand it, you need to replace N95 masks after X hours of use (just like other masks), so that would become really expensive really fast, and I expect the supply chain not to be able to follow the demand | 14:44 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Post - October 29 | Questions, images, videos, comments, unconfirmed reports, theories, suggestions → https://is.gd/L8Ptsi | 14:55 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Merck CEO says Covid vaccine won't be a 'silver bullet,' predicts mask use for the 'foreseeable future' → https://is.gd/ib0Tm4 | 15:04 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +1429 cases (now 9.1 million), +20 deaths (now 233157) since 7 hours ago — Switzerland: +21 deaths (now 2200) since 2 hours ago | 15:07 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: The best graphical explanation of aerosol transmission I’ve seen (81 votes) | https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html | https://redd.it/jk94k4 | 15:09 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): U.S. coronavirus infections unlikely to peak until after Thanksgiving, Dr. Scott Gottlieb says → https://is.gd/KgvVpS | 15:14 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +2405 cases (now 9.1 million), +15 deaths (now 233172) since 22 minutes ago | 15:22 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Research offers new way to forecast COVID-19 cases, study impact of public health measures: A statistical estimation technique developed by a University of Notre Dame researcher offers public health officials a new way to build short-term forecasts of coronavirus diagnoses and deaths. It also provides additional insight into [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/VQkP8k | 15:23 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Identifying early symptoms of Alzheimer's disease: When a 60-year-old tells her nurse she's been forgetting things—a dinner night with friends, a neighbor's name, or to call for a grandchild's birthday, for instance—the nurse may respond several different ways: The nurse might show concern and order follow-up tests, [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/5MAV3l | 15:32 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +80 cases (now 9.1 million) since 18 minutes ago | 15:37 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: A new coronavirus variant is seen spreading across Europe, research says: A new variant of the coronavirus, identified as 20A.EU1 by researchers from Switzerland and Spain, was first observed in Spain in June. → https://is.gd/fwqj39 | 15:59 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +6965 cases (now 9.1 million), +126 deaths (now 233298) since 37 minutes ago | 16:07 |
metreo | .cases canada | 16:13 |
Brainstorm | metreo: In Canada, there have been 226583 confirmed cases (0.6% of the population) and 10052 deaths (4.4% of cases) as of 9 hours ago. 9.8 million tests were performed (2.3% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.1% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 5.0% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Canada for time series data. | 16:13 |
metreo | .cases france | 16:13 |
Brainstorm | metreo: In France, there have been 1.2 million confirmed cases (1.9% of the population) and 35785 deaths (2.9% of cases) as of 9 hours ago. 15.3 million tests were performed (8.1% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=France for time series data. | 16:13 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Two million lost health coverage, thousands died prematurely in Trump's first 3 years: A new analysis of federal surveys on health insurance coverage concludes that the number of uninsured Americans increased by about 2.3 million between 2016 and 2019. The analysis by researchers at Harvard Medical School and the City [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/9frveZ | 16:17 |
metreo | .help | 16:21 |
Brainstorm | metreo: Hi, I am LjL's bot! Say %modules or %commands to me in private to see my features. | 16:21 |
metreo | .commands | 16:21 |
Brainstorm | metreo, all exposed commands: act, anagrams, ask, bible, book, bug, commands, count, dick, echo, evaluate, geo, grammar, greet, help, language_code, language_identify, languages, last, link_get, link_put, lojban, modules, more, morphology, onelook, phonology_change, ping, pronunciation, search, seen, spell, spell2, stock, subscribe [... want %more?] (try %help <command>, or %modules for a directory) | 16:21 |
metreo | .search antibodies | 16:21 |
Brainstorm | metreo, 0 hits: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody (Antibody) | 16:21 |
metreo | .search antibody | 16:21 |
Brainstorm | metreo, 0 hits: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody (Antibody) | 16:21 |
metreo | .commands | 16:21 |
Brainstorm | metreo, all exposed commands: act, anagrams, ask, bible, book, bug, commands, count, dick, echo, evaluate, geo, grammar, greet, help, language_code, language_identify, languages, last, link_get, link_put, lojban, modules, more, morphology, onelook, phonology_change, ping, pronunciation, search, seen, spell, spell2, stock, subscribe [... want %more?] (try %help <command>, or %modules for a directory) | 16:21 |
metreo | .more | 16:21 |
Brainstorm | metreo, [...] tell, title, translate, wikipedia, wiktionary, wtf → https://paste.ee/p/qwkou | 16:21 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +852 cases (now 9.1 million), +1 deaths (now 233299) since 18 minutes ago | 16:22 |
metreo | .search immunity | 16:23 |
Brainstorm | metreo, 225200000.0 hits: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immunity_(medical) (Immunity (medical) - Wikipedia) — https://www.cell.com/immunity/home (Cell Press: Immunity) — https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/immunity (Immunity | Journal | ScienceDirect.com by Elsevier) [... want %more?] | 16:23 |
metreo | .more | 16:23 |
Brainstorm | metreo, [...] https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/immunity (Immunity | Definition of Immunity by Merriam-Webster) — https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/immunity-types.htm (Types of Immunity to a Disease | Vaccines and Immunizations ...) — https://www.dictionary.com/browse/immunity (Immunity | Definition of Immunity at Dictionary.com) [...] → https://paste.ee/p/yAWBv | 16:23 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Does coronavirus spread more easily in cold temperatures? Here's what we know: Why is the reported number of COVID-19 cases rising across Europe now? Many countries ended their full lockdowns at the start of the summer, but it wasn't until the autumn that most places began to see a significant increase in the spread of the [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/eE5orW | 16:27 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: 'Difficult winter': Europe divided on lockdowns; cases soar: Chancellor Angela Merkel told Germans to expect a "difficult winter" as the country's daily reported coronavirus cases hit a new high Thursday, while residents in France prepared for life under a new month-long lockdown and experts urged Spain to more aggressively [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/gUCPHf | 16:45 |
Brainstorm | New from WebMD: The Pandemic Diet: How to Lose the ‘Quarantine 15’: Another survey, done in August by RunRepeat, found that 41% of the 10,000+ respondents in the U.S. had gained more than 5 pounds since quarantine began -- and those are people visiting a website devoted to running. → https://is.gd/570Ydi | 16:54 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +3253 cases (now 9.1 million), +41 deaths (now 233340) since 48 minutes ago — Canada: +717 cases (now 227550), +15 deaths (now 10067) since 10 hours ago | 17:08 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +26829 cases (now 616595), +217 deaths (now 38122) since a day ago — United Kingdom: +21516 cases (now 965340), +243 deaths (now 45955) since 10 hours ago | 17:23 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +6014 cases (now 9.1 million), +65 deaths (now 233405) since 49 minutes ago — Arizona, US: +1315 cases (now 242480), +13 deaths (now 5918) since a day ago | 17:53 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: It's been 7 months since Fauci's 'grim' estimate of 200,000 Americans dead from COVID-19 in 2020 - and the year isn't over yet (10544 votes) | https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/03/29/fauci-coronavirus-could-hit-millions-trump-considers-guidelines/2935804001/ | https://redd.it/jk99c9 | 17:57 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Celebrity vetting and ‘helping the President’ to defeat coronavirus despair → https://is.gd/4swy0Q | 18:08 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +2867 cases (now 9.1 million), +32 deaths (now 233437) since 23 minutes ago | 18:08 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: Spanish Parliament Approves Extension Of Nationwide High Alert Over COVID-19 Until May | 29OCT20 → https://is.gd/3ReXBf | 18:17 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: Do it for Yourself and Your Friends | 28OCT20 → https://is.gd/YWlvbl | 18:26 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Putin says no plans for new lockdown despite record virus surge: President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday there were no plans for a new lockdown in Russia even as officials registered a record surge in coronavirus infections and several regions were suffering "critical" outbreaks. → https://is.gd/2Dy5rY | 18:35 |
Brainstorm | New from In The Pipeline: The Latest Antibody Data From Lilly and From Regeneron: We have a new paper in the NEJM from the Eli Lilly effort on monoclonal antibodies against the coronavirus. And there’s no reason not to be up front about it: it’s disappointing. This is the BLAZE-1 trial (mentioned in this recent post), which is studying [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/XqjI8D | 18:45 |
Timvde | LjL: the government is discussing to also close non-essential stores and forbid all non-essential movements | 18:48 |
tinwhiskers | Bummer about the monoclonal result linked above, but that doesn't role out monoclonals per se, just this particular one. | 18:49 |
tinwhiskers | *rule out | 18:49 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +3191 cases (now 9.1 million), +49 deaths (now 233486) since 51 minutes ago | 18:53 |
de-facto | thats weird, i would have expected monoclonal antibodies to be more effective, could it be that they are not correctly targeted to the epitopes of that strain of SARS-CoV-2 anymore? | 19:02 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Is the COVID-19 pandemic affecting dengue virus case numbers?: The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in dramatic changes to human mobility, which has the potential to change the transmission dynamics of other infectious diseases. Now, researchers reporting in PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases have found that social [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/g8tqoF | 19:03 |
tinwhiskers | Yeah | 19:03 |
tinwhiskers | Not correctly targeted initially I would say. | 19:05 |
tinwhiskers | i.e. the selection method failed to select a good antibody and it's not until it reaches the trial phase that you get to find out for sure. | 19:06 |
de-facto | i am no expert but i though that their effectiveness potentially should in the rage of immunity by antibodies produced from B-cells, although such a natural immune response would produce a whole spectrum of antibodies, some would fit very well, others not so much, yet having all of them present would catch escape mutations, theats why they use "cocktails" of monoclonal antibodies to mimic that | 19:06 |
tinwhiskers | Right. Maybe the cocktails are the way to go. | 19:07 |
de-facto | so i guess targeting multiple epitopes and constantly renewing components of a cocktail of a big variety of monoclonal antibodies could increase their effectiveness | 19:07 |
tinwhiskers | Yes but there may also be subtle interplay between the mechanisms of some antibodies that don't occur in isolation to a single antibody. | 19:08 |
de-facto | what do you mean by that? | 19:10 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: Germany could be one of the first Western countries to start immunizing people against Covid-19 under a plan being rolled out by the government and a German company that is testing a vaccine → https://is.gd/bKPWBo | 19:12 |
tinwhiskers | Interactions may exist between antibodies that give them their full effectiveness as a cocktail but not as a monoclonal. | 19:12 |
de-facto | possibly yeah like antibody A only is effective in the presence of antibody B, but do they interact directly with each others or is it more like a cell mediated interaction (e.g. by their non-sticky end acting as marker for someting?) | 19:15 |
de-facto | do those monoclonal antibodies also mark a virion for removal from the body by sticking to it (with their other end flagging it to some cells to "put it in the garbage bin") or would such an inactivated virion just float around without being removed like it normally would when the antibody was produced by the carriers immune system? | 19:15 |
tinwhiskers | Yeah, maybe something like that | 19:16 |
de-facto | if it would just stay the concentration would increase, if it also would be marked for removal it should decline | 19:16 |
de-facto | and PCR test would not distinguish between inactivated and infectious functional virions | 19:16 |
tinwhiskers | Hmmm | 19:17 |
de-facto | still virion production should go down when they are non-functional | 19:18 |
de-facto | so maybe they should look at the time derivative of virion concentration rather than accumulated totals | 19:19 |
de-facto | anyhow thats all speculation, i dont have a clue | 19:19 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: LATEST: Liege, Belgium—where there's a roughly 41% infection rate and the local hospital is at full capacity—is emerging as an epicenter of Europe's worsening coronavirus crisis. → https://is.gd/cavSn2 | 19:21 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +7438 cases (now 9.2 million), +59 deaths (now 233545) since 38 minutes ago | 19:23 |
genera | well the virion contains tasty amina acid. i would guess the cell gets them. | 19:26 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Trump administration vetted political views of 274 celebrities for botched $265 million Covid ad campaign, House panel says → https://is.gd/6c4V4d | 19:30 |
de-facto | i mean if the SARS-CoV-2 epitopes are somewhat of a moving target (evading even if monoclonal antibodies are used on large scale) their production probably needs some kind of feedback loop to update them to specifically target the latest development in virion evolution | 19:44 |
tinwhiskers | yes, that seems like the main reason | 19:45 |
de-facto | would each single version of such a monoclonal antibody have to go through full clinical trials or could there be sane shortcuts to get it on fast track into large scale treatment? | 19:45 |
tinwhiskers | clearly they can do trials on cocktails as a whole | 19:46 |
tinwhiskers | with the annual flu vaccines I don't think there is much of a trial | 19:46 |
de-facto | yes but what if they constantly need to "patch" the ingredients of the cocktail to update to latest epitopes emerging? | 19:47 |
tinwhiskers | like the flu vaccines I expect antibody therapies will reduce the amount of testing required after confidence is built, a other than small pilot groups will probably just closely monitor new variants for problems. | 19:48 |
de-facto | yes they probably need to gain more experience with them on large scale to pinpoint possible problems more specifically | 19:49 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: WHO: Europe now has more than 10 million COVID-19 cases: The World Health Organization's Europe director said Thursday that the 54-country region has again reached a new weekly record for confirmed cases, with more than 1.5 million confirmed last week and more than 10 million since the start of the pandemic. → https://is.gd/nermFn | 19:58 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Spain: +44241 cases (now 1.2 million), +173 deaths (now 35639) since a day ago — France: +25303 cases (now 1.3 million), +235 deaths (now 36020) since 13 hours ago — US: +11489 cases (now 9.2 million), +140 deaths (now 233685) since 50 minutes ago | 20:09 |
LjL | wow, spain | 20:10 |
LjL | it isn't even monday | 20:11 |
LjL | that spain number must be wrong... it would be a gigantic leap compared to previous days... | 20:14 |
LjL | but spain and france really suck with their data :\ | 20:14 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +7760 cases (now 9.2 million), +60 deaths (now 233745) since 20 minutes ago — Canada: +197 cases (now 227747), +1 deaths (now 10068) since 3 hours ago | 20:24 |
de-facto | Spain should have daily 16k on average and daily peaks around 20k or such | 20:24 |
LjL | de-facto, yeah, i thought so too, and covidly graphs seem to confirm it, so i'm honestly not sure what the bot is doing. it's possible it's jumped from one source to another (due to the fact that both offloop sources have their own flaws, the bot always picks the one that has a higher number) | 20:27 |
de-facto | would make sense, i also suspect some artifact | 20:28 |
de-facto | although the normal data on offloop for Spain got HUGE periodic spikes | 20:29 |
de-facto | like 52k on 26th Oct | 20:30 |
de-facto | smoothing to ~20k | 20:30 |
de-facto | yeah Spains reporting always is a bit strange | 20:31 |
de-facto | Damn Incidence in EU is DOUBLE that of US per citizen | 20:34 |
de-facto | and still on exponential raise | 20:34 |
Brainstorm | New from Virology.ws: TWiV 676: Tragic gene flow from Neanderthals: In this episode we explain how regions of the human genome associated with severe COVID-19 are identified, the finding that one of these regions was inherited from Neanderthals, and prolonged SARS-CoV-2 reproduction in an immunocompromised patient. → https://is.gd/Kq0eNm | 20:49 |
dtrum | Spain, since July the data is updated all three days. See a part of my Database at https://pastebin.com/B7Ji4aR3 | 20:56 |
dtrum | The graph is nearly useless, i only use a 7 days glide. | 20:57 |
dtrum | Also since July a recovery rate is not published. | 20:58 |
dtrum | The plot looks like this: https://svgur.com/s/R3R | 21:05 |
tinwhiskers | nice plot. what does the width of the bars signify? | 21:06 |
Brainstorm | New from PLOS ONE: A discrete-time-evolution model to forecast progress of Covid-19 outbreak: by Evaldo M. F. Curado, Marco R. Curado Here we present a discrete-time-evolution model with one day interval to forecast the propagation of Covid-19. The proposed model can be easily implemented with daily updated data sets of the pandemic publicly available [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/xvkg5w | 21:07 |
dtrum | Yes, normally one per day, so if three the same value is published, the bars looking wider. Normally it should look like before July. | 21:10 |
tinwhiskers | ah | 21:10 |
ryouma | it is? i thoguht it was like half us as of last night. and 1/4 of red states --- 12:34 <de-facto> Damn Incidence in EU is DOUBLE that of US per citizen | 21:13 |
dtrum | Data is from https://github.com/ulklc/covid19-timeseries/raw/master/countryReport/raw/rawReport.csv | 21:13 |
ryouma | acc offloop' | 21:13 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: The Latest Antibody Data From Lilly and From Regeneron (84 votes) | https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/10/29/the-latest-antibody-data-from-lilly-and-from-regeneron | https://redd.it/jkezdo | 21:16 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I don't trust in US numbers. You know >>less testing, less problem.<< The trump solution | 21:16 |
tinwhiskers | DocScrutinizer05: yeah, yet the conspiracy people say that's somehow just evidence that trump knows the numbers are being exaggerated and that's why he says the problem is not as bad as it is... or something like that. | 21:38 |
tinwhiskers | *not as bad as the numbers indicate | 21:38 |
tinwhiskers | Of course excess deaths show the problem is actually worse than what the numbers show. In that regard the US isn't really much different to other places so Trump's wish to do less testing may not actually be being followed. | 21:40 |
tinwhiskers | or, put another way, you can probably trust that the US numbers are about as accurate as other places despite the rhetoric. | 21:41 |
ryouma | meaning http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=EU;US-Democratic;US-Republican;US%20swing%20states;US%20non-swing%20states&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&miscType=Rate | 21:45 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +14353 cases (now 9.2 million), +147 deaths (now 233892) since an hour ago — Canada: +82 cases (now 227829) since an hour ago | 22:09 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +2415 cases (now 9.2 million), +107 deaths (now 233999) since 27 minutes ago | 22:24 |
Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Listen: Pfizer’s Covid-19 mystery, Ashish Jha on pandemic response, & STAT turns 5: When are we getting Covid-19 vaccine data? Will concerts ever be safe again? And what's a "Bionomy"? Find out on the latest episode of "The Readout LOUD." Listen now: #TheReadoutLOUD → https://is.gd/DaME1K | 22:30 |
Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Trump administration vetted political views of 274 celebrities for botched $265 million Covid ad campaign, House lawmakers say → https://is.gd/6c4V4d | 23:06 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +4760 cases (now 9.2 million), +17 deaths (now 234016) since 53 minutes ago — Canada: +477 cases (now 228306), +5 deaths (now 10073) since an hour ago | 23:09 |
Arsanerit | is there a good source for time series per country on positive test rates? | 23:10 |
tinwhiskers | Arsanerit: you can get positive test rates on offloop: http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US&testsRate=yes&miscType=Rate&leftTrim=150&legacy=no but I see now the leftTrim setting isn't working from the link so you might need to set that to get a decent looking graph. It's pretty rudimentary and can go a bit crazy at times. You can export the data using the csv link at the top-right of the graph. | 23:24 |
tinwhiskers | so, "good", I'm not so sure about :-/ | 23:24 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +4547 cases (now 9.2 million), +56 deaths (now 234072) since 21 minutes ago | 23:25 |
de-facto | Arsanerit, yes i think this is a pretty neat summery for each country worldwide in regards to testing https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing | 23:28 |
de-facto | https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/tests-per-confirmed-case-daily-smoothed?time=latest | 23:28 |
Arsanerit | Oh, I didn't know offloop had test rates | 23:29 |
de-facto | https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/tests-per-confirmed-case-daily-smoothed?tab=chart&time=earliest..latest&country=~DEU | 23:30 |
Arsanerit | "confirmed cases per test: 6" how does that work? | 23:30 |
Arsanerit | de-facto: thanks | 23:30 |
de-facto | so for example if they conduct 30 tests for each confirmed case it means that one in 30 tests shows a positive result i thnk | 23:31 |
de-facto | hence the positive rate would be 1/30 = 3.3% | 23:32 |
tinwhiskers | Arsanerit: yeah, maybe something to do with timing of reporting. Not sure. There's times when there were more positive results reported than tests reported. | 23:32 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: High rate of symptomless COVID-19 infection among grocery store workers: study: Grocery store employees are likely to be at heightened risk of COVID-19 infection, with those in customer-facing roles 5 times as likely to test positive as their colleagues in other positions, suggests the first study of its kind, published in the [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/NjwqZj | 23:33 |
Arsanerit | de-facto: yes but 6 confirmed cases per test means a positive test rate of 600% | 23:34 |
tinwhiskers | right | 23:34 |
de-facto | oh nice tinwhiskers is the positive test rate on offloop new? | 23:34 |
de-facto | Arsanerit, you cant congirm 6 cases with one test, that does not make sense to me | 23:35 |
tinwhiskers | no, it's been there for a while. It's only on the covidly dataset, which is no longer the default because it's a bit whacky. | 23:35 |
Arsanerit | de-facto: must be bad data then | 23:35 |
de-facto | ah i see, thats why i have not seen it on default settings | 23:35 |
Arsanerit | ourworldindata is good (doesn't work in pale moon though) | 23:35 |
de-facto | which country are you looking at? | 23:36 |
de-facto | 6 tests and one of them positive would make sense though like 1/6 = 16.6% positive rate | 23:38 |
Arsanerit | http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US&testsRate=yes&miscType=Rate&legacy=no <--- US has some values above 1 before April 8 | 23:38 |
Arsanerit | I'm looking at https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing#the-positive-rate-a-crucial-metric-for-understanding-the-pandemic now | 23:39 |
de-facto | yeah early points in the US dataset may be bogus for some reason, sometimes one datasource it better, other times another | 23:42 |
de-facto | but i would assume the more recent points are more accurate as in they would debug their reporting pipelines for the upstream datasets | 23:43 |
Arsanerit | hmm, no "positive testing rate" data for The Netherlands since 27 September in ourworldindata | 23:48 |
de-facto | yeah but before | 23:51 |
de-facto | weird though, maybe it will be added later due to some change? | 23:51 |
ryouma | child long covid https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/10/26/long-o26.html | 23:57 |
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