| DocScrutinizer05 | >>how many<< I'm sure you _could_ calculate that from inital_dose, time window observed, and concentration of virus in snot, given you know the exact amount of snot produced per minute;; or from initial dose applied, time window and ratio of damaged vs healthy cells times the total amount of cells available. | 00:06 |
|---|---|---|
| DocScrutinizer05 | afaik nobody bothered to do that calculation yet since it's worth nothing except for calculating the parameters you already needed to know to calculate the R value you asked for | 00:07 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | ipw if you actually knew R, and you know initial dose and concentration of virus in snot after 24h, you could actually calculate the amount of snot per minute for that individuum | 00:11 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | IOW* | 00:11 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>thats interesting<< you completely lost me on that one | 00:12 |
| ryouma | was just thinking that hcw are possibly already getting exposed to their patients and are well protected at work | 00:12 |
| ryouma | or something like that | 00:13 |
| ryouma | idk nm | 00:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: WHO welcomes a contribution of US$ 90 million from The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to support its COVID-19 global response. → https://is.gd/FyeU3A | 00:16 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, yes i guess that would be possible if such numbers would be available | 00:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Mob on street vs Covid deaths in hospital, US divide deepens in final countdown to Nov 3 → https://is.gd/v9lqwe | 00:34 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announces nationwide lockdown in England (10039 votes) | https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1322616352260169729?s=21 | https://redd.it/jlo59o | 00:50 |
| rpifan | yay | 00:52 |
| de-facto | %title https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54763956 | 01:04 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.bbc.com: Covid-19: PM announces four-week England lockdown - BBC News | 01:04 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: my point being there's absolutely nothing *new* you could calculate now that you know the true "R" of virus in a particular individual's mucous membrane. All you can do is like a simple algebraic transformation of a formula with 3 known and no unknown variables | 01:06 |
| de-facto | yes indeed | 01:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Prime Minister Boris Johnson imposes stay-at-home order in England as coronavirus cases surge → https://is.gd/r7xNR7 | 01:11 |
| de-facto | interesting there also seems to be a cascade of lockdowns in EU now | 01:15 |
| de-facto | since this week | 01:15 |
| metreo | I wonder why? | 01:15 |
| de-facto | its good though, it hat to be hammered down aggressively | 01:15 |
| de-facto | *had | 01:16 |
| de-facto | idk maybe a threshold effect? | 01:16 |
| LjL | wait, there was actually a stay-at-home order? i displayed an impressive inability to follow and understand what Johnson said today. my understanding was that non-essential shops would close and some other stuff, but not that people would have to have a valid reason to leave their homes | 01:16 |
| metreo | tip of the spear really | 01:17 |
| metreo | a lockdown by any other name | 01:17 |
| LjL | well the term lockdown has been used to mean a number of different things by now | 01:17 |
| metreo | yes | 01:18 |
| LjL | but from the speech and what people said i had not realized there was a must-stay-at-home part | 01:18 |
| metreo | they're getting around to that I'm sure | 01:18 |
| metreo | better not to slam on the brakes I think | 01:18 |
| metreo | otherwise people will hoard plastic utensils | 01:19 |
| LjL | but i mean that's what https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/31/prime-minister-boris-johnson-imposes-stay-at-home-order-in-england-as-coronavirus-cases-surge.html claims | 01:19 |
| LjL | "People will be ordered to stay at home unless it’s for essential purposes, including education, medical reasons, or to shop for groceries, Johnson said during a press conference in London." | 01:19 |
| LjL | did he? | 01:19 |
| metreo | no I didn | 01:19 |
| metreo | didn't hear it like that* | 01:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: 'Stay at home': UK PM Johnson imposes new national lockdown as Covid-19 cases top 1 million → https://is.gd/Hv4UPP | 01:20 |
| LjL | me neither, but i was distracted/confused | 01:20 |
| metreo | he did call it a lockdown | 01:20 |
| metreo | once everybody is mostly settled in their homes they can start welding the doors shut | 01:21 |
| LjL | but he also said it wasn't as tough as the one in Spring iirc | 01:21 |
| LjL | "the message is the same though" | 01:21 |
| LjL | pfft come on | 01:21 |
| metreo | it's that a lockdown like the spring is impossible | 01:21 |
| metreo | there will be escalating restrictions I mean | 01:21 |
| metreo | at least that's my prediction | 01:21 |
| metreo | Brits are freedom loving people | 01:22 |
| metreo | you can't order them all home in one go | 01:22 |
| LjL | there are certainly being escalating restrictions here. but i am of the opposite opinion about slamming on the brakes. "chasing" the virus by enacting insufficient measures every time will only make it longer and worse | 01:22 |
| LjL | metreo, you really like spouting back the bollocks you hear from politicians, don't you? | 01:22 |
| LjL | <metreo> Brits are freedom loving people | 01:22 |
| metreo | There will be riots | 01:22 |
| LjL | our government expressed formal complaints about this very thing being stated by Johnson when he compared it to the Italian lockdown | 01:23 |
| metreo | Really? lol | 01:23 |
| LjL | as if Italians somehow didn't love freedom and it's a British (and obviously American) exclusive | 01:23 |
| LjL | you know, most people who live in democracies "love freedom" | 01:23 |
| LjL | (and probably a few of those who don't) | 01:23 |
| metreo | It's a nice way of saying there will be trouble in the streets | 01:23 |
| metreo | Italians are freedom loving people as well | 01:24 |
| LjL | well, there is being trouble in the streets now in Italy, even though the restrictions have been escalating and not sudden | 01:24 |
| LjL | i actually think there would have been less protesting if there had been one sudden hard lockdown | 01:24 |
| metreo | catch everyone by surprise, hmm maybe yeah | 01:25 |
| LjL | as opposed to | 01:25 |
| LjL | every single sunday | 01:25 |
| LjL | hear the PM's speech | 01:25 |
| LjL | add more and more things you can't do | 01:25 |
| LjL | that you can't even keep a list | 01:25 |
| LjL | every single sunday a new law that will make people who can't do some things angry - and people who think it's not enough, also angry | 01:25 |
| metreo | they'll slap those angry people will shock value statistics | 01:26 |
| metreo | like today forecasting 1k dead/day | 01:26 |
| metreo | not a nice thought | 01:27 |
| LjL | a very realistic thought | 01:28 |
| LjL | it's what we had in spring | 01:28 |
| LjL | an optimistic thought maybe | 01:28 |
| LjL | to be fair - we didn't have it, we reached 919, on March 27 | 01:29 |
| LjL | it's like a pretty large earthquake every day | 01:29 |
| metreo | jesus | 01:30 |
| LjL | without people remaining homeless maybe, but still with a lot of people who are badly sick (and some who may stay sick for a very long time afterwards) aside from the ones who die | 01:30 |
| LjL | so putting "the economy first" would be a wee bit suicidal imo | 01:30 |
| metreo | it's a real conundrum | 01:33 |
| LjL | postit: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.11.293951v2 hard evidence apparently found of virus presence in the CNS / brain | 01:34 |
| metreo | F | 01:35 |
| LjL | it's in one infant, who died (since an autopsy the easiest, or only, way to know for sure...) | 01:35 |
| LjL | maybe it's not typical of other patients. maybe. | 01:36 |
| metreo | there has been work on that up until now | 01:36 |
| metreo | it has been suspected to cross the blood-brain barrier | 01:36 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | what still puzzles me is the synchronicity of run-away curves in virtually all countries | 01:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: What will the England lockdown achieve?: Lockdown is the measure nobody "wanted" but now many European countries have decided they "need". → https://is.gd/sfLIwR | 01:37 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | as if weather in spain was same like in belgium or germany | 01:38 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I didn't look into this in any detail, it's just a gut feeling of sirts by now | 01:38 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | sorts* | 01:39 |
| metreo | low temps high humidity | 01:40 |
| metreo | probably ideal for spread | 01:40 |
| LjL | metreo, it has been suspected, yes, but an alternative explanation has often been that the virus didn't enter the CNS but instead other more indirect factors caused CNS inflammation. yuriwho, i think you thought it was the latter, maybe have a look at what you think of https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.11.293951v2 ? | 01:40 |
| ghost_rider[m] | First person that I knew that passed away, was old > 80 ... everything I know it seems the lungs yada | 01:41 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | ~weather Algeciras | 01:41 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | ~weather hamburg | 01:41 |
| LjL | bot has no weather command, but if you're lucky you can get it from wolfram alpha... | 01:41 |
| LjL | %wa weather in Algerica, Hamburg | 01:41 |
| LjL | but i am not lucky | 01:42 |
| LjL | %wa weather in Milan | 01:42 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, failed to get any hits! | 01:42 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, failed to get any hits! | 01:42 |
| LjL | DocScrutinizer05, if you want to spend time in spreadsheets, NOAA does have daily weather (temperature and humidity at least, you may want to look at windspeed too) data for all major airports | 01:42 |
| LjL | get it, correlate it with the infection curve, tada | 01:43 |
| metreo | .title https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220301958 | 01:45 |
| Brainstorm | metreo: From www.sciencedirect.com: A first case of meningitis/encephalitis associated with SARS-Coronavirus-2 - ScienceDirect | 01:45 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | sounds like a plan, though I'm absolutely sure somebody alse must have done exactly that already, no? | 01:45 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | else* | 01:46 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I always hear >>it's the weather<< but if officials had some charts supporting this claim they would already have shown them every full hour in the breaking news, no? | 01:48 |
| metreo | like a pollen forecast for covid spread | 01:48 |
| metreo | I don't think this is supported | 01:49 |
| metreo | there was speculation about low temps and high humidity after early out breaks in meat processing plants | 01:49 |
| metreo | looks like they're still struggling.. coincidence? | 01:50 |
| metreo | .title https://www.thestar.com/politics/2020/10/30/covid-19-a-second-olymel-meat-plant-in-quebec-dealing-with-outbreak.html | 01:50 |
| Brainstorm | metreo: From www.thestar.com: COVID-19: A second Olymel meat plant in Quebec dealing with outbreak | The Star | 01:50 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | well, it should be damn easy to prove or falsify this, there is detailed meteorological data and history for each single city in the western world, just like per-city covid data | 01:58 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | it's not even a master thesis level to calculate correlation | 01:59 |
| metreo | ofc correlation is not causation | 02:00 |
| metreo | might as well correlate stock market to the weather as well | 02:01 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | yes, they expected winter to get tough, but actually everybody was surprised to see the explosion *now* already, particularly since we don't exactly have an early autumn and winter this year | 02:01 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, that threshold effect puzzles me too, seems to go off in Scandinavian countries too now | 02:02 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | not even a cold and wet summer | 02:02 |
| de-facto | it does not really seem to be weather related | 02:02 |
| de-facto | if i did not knew better i would think its almost like a pathogen with higher transmission ability arriving | 02:03 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | exactly my thought, that's why 'I looked into mutations and new strains, but nope | 02:05 |
| de-facto | look at Norway for example http://metrics.covid19-analysis.org/ | 02:05 |
| de-facto | not so high incidence but same pattern like many other EU countries, first a little raise, kinda plateau and then at some point boOM | 02:06 |
| de-facto | its the same pattern in every country, very weird | 02:06 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | weird | 02:06 |
| metreo | Ireland is always cold and damp and they're doing fine | 02:06 |
| de-facto | do they have travel restrictions? | 02:07 |
| metreo | not sure tbh I haven't heard much from them | 02:07 |
| de-facto | ireland also hat a peak though, but they seem to are beyond their peak | 02:07 |
| de-facto | neat | 02:07 |
| metreo | pretty sure Mexico is not doing well and they are hot and dry | 02:07 |
| de-facto | its very weird, that threshold like effect, not really depending on weather or prevalence | 02:08 |
| de-facto | going off in one EU country after the other | 02:08 |
| metreo | more of a seasonal influence like South Africa now entering summer | 02:09 |
| metreo | I don't understand how that works with viruses | 02:09 |
| de-facto | but there also were peaks in very hot weather, Arizona or Israel | 02:10 |
| metreo | it may defy logic | 02:10 |
| metreo | even India is declining into Summer | 02:10 |
| de-facto | and the peak already started before it was getting cold in many places | 02:10 |
| de-facto | somehow i dont think its a purely seasonal effect | 02:10 |
| metreo | weird.. | 02:10 |
| de-facto | it at all | 02:11 |
| metreo | the effect seems more real than the weather hypothesis | 02:11 |
| metreo | well India is actually equatorial | 02:11 |
| metreo | what the heck is going on!! | 02:12 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | when the moooon is in the seventh house, and jupiter aligns with mars... | 02:12 |
| metreo | ^exactly | 02:12 |
| metreo | :D | 02:12 |
| de-facto | ok correction: since testing is not really comparable we cant say if it is not a prevalence threshold | 02:15 |
| de-facto | loool | 02:18 |
| metreo | :p | 02:18 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: has to be sth that immanently syncs vera large and distant reagions | 02:19 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | very* | 02:19 |
| de-facto | yes | 02:19 |
| metreo | yeah it could be a population level biological change | 02:20 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | unless it's a very precise timer in the DNA of virus itself, it's either some physical effect or information domain effect | 02:21 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | RNA whatever | 02:21 |
| metreo | I meant changes in the host.., us | 02:21 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | that would be the latter then | 02:21 |
| metreo | an information domain effect? | 02:22 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | unless we *all* eaten same "catalytic" new fastfood last month | 02:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Obama praises Canada's COVID-19 response as he blames Trump for 'screw up' → https://is.gd/vgsq28 | 02:23 |
| LjL | <DocScrutinizer05> sounds like a plan, though I'm absolutely sure somebody alse must have done exactly that already, no? ← it has been done, i can show you a study, but it was done long ago after the first wave. i don't know if they did it again after the second | 02:23 |
| LjL | well, during the second | 02:23 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | metreo: an effect triggered by spreading of information and causing us to change our behavior | 02:23 |
| LjL | DocScrutinizer05, here's the study https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.18.20036731v1 plus i think this one is only about temperatures but i would look at humidity and wind too | 02:23 |
| LjL | unfortunately my understanding of probability and statistics is scarce | 02:24 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: thanks a lot | 02:25 |
| metreo | ooof Sean Connery passed | 02:26 |
| metreo | .title https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-54762100 | 02:28 |
| Brainstorm | metreo: From www.bbc.com: First Minister leads tributes to 'global legend' Sean Connery - BBC News | 02:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Wuhan's streets are packed with Halloween revellers ten months after the coronavirus pandemic started there - while the rest of the world is crippled by pandemic → https://is.gd/1JejuH | 02:31 |
| ghost_rider[m] | Reddit and BBC, WoW | 02:35 |
| de-facto | well but on southern hemisphere there are many countries with R<1 | 02:52 |
| de-facto | hmm maybe its really something seasonal after all | 02:52 |
| de-facto | combines with some sort of threshold effect, like exceeding of some resource and or prevalence "soaking through" | 02:53 |
| de-facto | *combined | 02:53 |
| de-facto | like South America, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, India, Indonesia, Phillipines, Australia | 02:54 |
| de-facto | all with R<1 | 02:55 |
| rpifan | hm | 02:58 |
| de-facto | I wonder about Ireland, they seem to have managed to reverse their incidence | 03:00 |
| de-facto | their peak was around 18th Oct | 03:01 |
| de-facto | so it must be something around 4th Oct showing there | 03:01 |
| de-facto | two weeks earlier | 03:01 |
| metreo | what's the population density of Ireland? | 03:01 |
| de-facto | 77.8/km^2 | 03:02 |
| de-facto | 6-5M per 84421 km^2 | 03:02 |
| de-facto | 6.5M per 84421 km^2 | 03:02 |
| metreo | london is 5177 inhabitants per square kilometre | 03:02 |
| metreo | so about 67x more dense | 03:03 |
| metreo | Italy overall is 201 inhabitants per square kilometre | 03:03 |
| de-facto | "On 5 October, the Government rejected NPHET's recommendation to place the entire country under Level 5 restrictions, and instead moved every county in Ireland to Level 3 COVID-19 restrictions with improved enforcement and indoor dining in pubs and restaurants banned, which will come into effect from the midnight of 6 October until 27 October at the earliest." | 03:03 |
| de-facto | cite from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_Republic_of_Ireland | 03:04 |
| metreo | ^that doesn't hurt :) | 03:04 |
| metreo | I live in a low population density area, and I've lived in big cities before | 03:04 |
| metreo | it makes a big difference in terms of the number of people you contact just stepping out | 03:04 |
| metreo | low population density with some restrictions seems like an ideal situation | 03:05 |
| metreo | that's what we have with 6 active cases out of 1M people | 03:06 |
| de-facto | so their level 3 lockdown is: gatherings: Maximum 6 from 1 other household, weddings max 25, no indoor events, outdoor events max 15 ppl, sports only alone indoors, outdoors max 15, restaurants, cafees, pubs Range of restrictions up to and including no indoor dining, hotels Services limited to residents only | 03:07 |
| de-facto | schoos open with protective measures | 03:07 |
| de-facto | so pretty much the "lockdown light" for Germany | 03:07 |
| de-facto | that may be good news | 03:08 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, look at ireland they reversed their peak after two weeks | 03:08 |
| de-facto | http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany;Ireland&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes | 03:09 |
| de-facto | but they moved into level 5 lockdown at 19th of Oct | 03:10 |
| de-facto | that cant have reversed the peak at 18th of Oct though, so it must have been the effect from that earlier measures | 03:11 |
| de-facto | maybe its really those party people's fault | 03:11 |
| de-facto | i think all events, restaurants, bars and clubs and party or other entertainment places should be closed permanently until vaccination | 03:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Australia records zero new locally acquired daily cases of coronavirus for first time since June → https://is.gd/PP8CL5 | 03:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Australia records first day without locally acquired COVID case since June → https://is.gd/uqXGtQ | 03:43 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | hmmm >> This study provides preliminary evidence that there may be seasonal variability in transmission of SARS- CoV-2, but this analysis does not imply that temperature alone is a primary driver of COVID-19 transmission. The observed association may not be due directly to temperature, but to correlated factors such as relative humidity, or human behaviours during cold weather.<< | 03:45 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | also this is for a really short observation window, so rather than watching at changes in incidences at a particular location driven by change of weather it simply seems to check for differences between warmer and colder countries / regions at one moment in time basically | 03:49 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | very weak study | 03:50 |
| de-facto | what is wrong with the cell.com servers? they never are able to deliver a full pdf to chrome | 03:52 |
| de-facto | %title https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/10/201029141938.htm | 03:55 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.sciencedaily.com: More infections than reported: New study demonstrates importance of large-scale SARS-CoV-2 antibody screenings -- ScienceDaily | 03:55 |
| de-facto | "A new study indicates a six-fold higher SARS-CoV-2 exposure rate among children in Bavaria, Germany, than reported cases. This highlights the value of population-based antibody screenings for pandemic monitoring. The study also describes a novel approach to measuring antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 with high accuracy." | 03:55 |
| de-facto | %title http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.medj.2020.10.003 "Public health antibody screening indicates a six-fold higher SARS-CoV-2 exposure rate than reported cases in children" | 03:57 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From dx.doi.org: Redirecting | 03:57 |
| de-facto | %title https://www.cell.com/med/pdf/S2666-6340(20)30020-9.pdf | 03:57 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, the URL could not be loaded | 03:57 |
| de-facto | well it can be loaded with wget | 03:58 |
| de-facto | you know cell.com servers are "special" | 03:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): I voted today: Felt weird. I used my absentee ballot because I wasn't going to have time to stand in line for early voting, and I'm going to be out of town on voting day (bosses request (bs right?)) And it felt weird using my tongue to seal the envelopes.. seems not so sanitary, u know? → https://is.gd/Iwy68t | 04:02 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>six-fold higher SARS-CoV-2 exposure rate among children<< I always wondered how reliable the research leading to the conclusion that schools may stay open. It seems to me they as well could be hidden drivers, maybe due to children being particularly non-susceptible to developing severe symptomatic ? | 04:16 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | so maybe not temperature/season but schools? | 04:19 |
| de-facto | "Antibody surveillance in children during 2020 resulted in frequencies of 0.08% in January to March, 0.61% in April, 0.74% in May, 1.13% in June and 0.91% in July. Antibody prevalence from April 2020 was six-fold higher than the incidence of authority-reported cases (156 per 100,000 children), showed marked variation between the seven Bavarian regions (P<0.0001), and was not associated with age or sex. Transmission in children with | 04:20 |
| de-facto | virus-positive family members was 35%; 47% of positive children were asymptomatic. No association with type 1 diabetes autoimmunity was observed. Antibody frequency in newborns was 0.47%." | 04:20 |
| de-facto | https://covid-dashboard.fr1da-studie.de/app_direct/covid-dashboard/ | 04:21 |
| de-facto | i am not sure, Ireland had schools open afaik? | 04:25 |
| de-facto | so i guess the takeaway message is that children are "stealth carriers" half of them asymptomatic and 5 of 6 cases go under the testing radar | 04:29 |
| de-facto | not quite sure how that compares to similar studies for adults though | 04:30 |
| de-facto | possibly may be similar in adults? | 04:30 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | iirc the study Laschet was the first to base his pushing to open schools as they're supposedly no problem was by Streek | 04:59 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I'm not exactly convinced of the reliability and significance of Streek studies, nor of the interpretations Laschet does | 05:02 |
| ryouma | if it is tru isn't that a bombshell? | 05:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Australia marks first day of no community COVID-19 transmissions in almost five months → https://is.gd/NeLhZg | 05:03 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Treatment with Zinc is Associated with Reduced In-Hospital Mortality Among COVID-19 Patients: A Multi-Center Cohort Study (81 votes) | https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-94509/v1 | https://redd.it/jlspff | 05:03 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | ryouma: for sure | 05:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from This Week In Virology: TWiV 677: Does antibody really know what time it is?: Daniel Griffin provides a clinical report on COVID-19, then we discuss rapid deployment of SARS-CoV-2 testing by research laboratories in San Francisco, longitudinal observation of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in patients, and listener questions on vaccines, loss of [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/CTTqKq | 05:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Trump failed to take pandemic, presidency seriously: Barack Obama → https://is.gd/YLjDMy | 05:21 |
| ryouma | i was wondering when former presidents would start talking | 05:26 |
| yuriwho | yea, it's a travesty that that is necessary | 05:28 |
| ryouma | i want all of them to issue a joint statement | 05:28 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +16915 cases (now 429229), +173 deaths (now 11625) since a day ago — France: +13702 cases (now 1.4 million) since 7 hours ago — US: +4729 cases (now 9.4 million), +15 deaths (now 236072) since 7 hours ago — Netherlands: +763 cases (now 351941), +19 deaths (now 7414) since 15 hours ago | 06:05 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Lombardy, Italy: +8919 cases (now 195744), +73 deaths (now 17535) since a day ago — France: +8840 cases (now 1.4 million), +19 deaths (now 36807) since 15 minutes ago — Netherlands: +2459 cases (now 354400), +13 deaths (now 7427) since 15 minutes ago — United Kingdom: +1567 cases (now 1.0 million), +45 deaths (now 46600) since 13 hours ago | 06:21 |
| Brainstorm | New preprint: Features of C-reactive protein in COVID-19 patients with different ages, clinical types and outcomes: a cohort study by Gaojing Qu et al, published on 2020-10-31 at https://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.10.26.20220160 [... want %more?] | 07:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Australia sees zero local Covid cases for first time since June → https://is.gd/UR2E35 | 07:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Protesters against COVID-19 restrictions clash with police in Spanish cities → https://is.gd/RNPNPM | 09:06 |
| Haley[m] | %cases usa | 10:10 |
| Brainstorm | Haley[m]: In US, there have been 9.4 million confirmed cases (2.9% of the population) and 236077 deaths (2.5% of cases) as of 11 minutes ago. 144.8 million tests were performed (6.5% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.1% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 10:10 |
| Haley[m] | %cases france | 10:11 |
| Brainstorm | Haley[m]: In France, there have been 1.4 million confirmed cases (2.1% of the population) and 36807 deaths (2.6% of cases) as of 3 hours ago. 16.1 million tests were performed (8.7% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=France for time series data. | 10:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid-19: England gets ready for new four-week lockdown: The lockdown is due to run from Thursday to 2 December - but Michael Gove says it could be extended. → https://is.gd/iMy3ki | 10:18 |
| Arsanerit | %cases netherlands | 10:44 |
| Brainstorm | Arsanerit: In Netherlands, there have been 354400 confirmed cases (2.0% of the population) and 7427 deaths (2.1% of cases) as of 4 hours ago. 3.3 million tests were performed (10.6% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Netherlands for time series data. | 10:44 |
| Arsanerit | %cases germany | 10:44 |
| Brainstorm | Arsanerit: In Germany, there have been 531790 confirmed cases (0.6% of the population) and 10583 deaths (2.0% of cases) as of 4 hours ago. 21.9 million tests were performed (2.4% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.5% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 2.9% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data. | 10:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from ProPublica: Why Bush v. Gore Still Matters in 2020: by Ian MacDougall This article is part of Electionland , ProPublica’s collaborative reporting project covering problems that prevent eligible voters from casting their ballots during the 2020 elections. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published. Twenty years [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/3sBNw0 | 11:20 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +127 cases (now 9.4 million), +5 deaths (now 236077) since 5 hours ago | 11:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Johnson announces month-long virus lockdown for England: Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Saturday announced a new four-week coronavirus lockdown across England, a dramatic shift in strategy following warnings hospitals would become overwhelmed within weeks under his current system of localised restrictions. → https://is.gd/HM4CdH | 11:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: England to lock down again as virus surges in Europe: Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson has announced a new four-week coronavirus lockdown in England, which will join several European countries in imposing the measure for a second time, as Slovakia took a different tack and began testing its entire population. → https://is.gd/fMhcc5 | 11:38 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +2047 cases (now 9.4 million), +21 deaths (now 236098) since an hour ago — Switzerland: +4 deaths (now 2301) since 6 hours ago | 12:52 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Influenza vaccination and hospitalizations among COVID-19 infected adults (83 votes) | https://www.jabfm.org/content/covid-19-ahead-print-subject-collection | https://redd.it/jlvnba | 13:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Israel begins human trials of domestically-produced Coronavirus vaccine → https://is.gd/JYeCmb | 13:42 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +5461 cases (now 359861), +16 deaths (now 7434) since 8 hours ago — US: +59 cases (now 9.4 million), +3 deaths (now 236101) since 2 hours ago — Switzerland: +5 deaths (now 2306) since 2 hours ago | 14:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Post - November 01 | Questions, images, videos, comments, unconfirmed reports, theories, suggestions → https://is.gd/L6q4Kr | 14:54 |
| aradesh | is the offloop site down? | 15:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: @GStephanopoulos : Counting the votes “might take some time in this election … and everyone watching at home should know that it is not a sign that anything has gone wrong.” Why voting in the coronavirus pandemic will be unlike any other year → https://is.gd/xcZWHj | 15:21 |
| ghost_rider[m] | Scientists discover ‘devastating’ NEW genetic disease that’s killed 40% of known patients by attacking lungs and immune system | 15:33 |
| ghost_rider[m] | At RT | 15:33 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: COVID-19 Artificial Intelligence Diagnosis using only Cough Recordings (83 votes) | https://www.embs.org/ojemb/articles/covid-19-artificial-intelligence-diagnosis-using-only-cough-recordings/ | https://redd.it/jlzerv | 15:55 |
| aradesh | seems back up again | 16:00 |
| metreo | .title https://j.mp/3mNDCsF | 16:30 |
| Brainstorm | metreo: From j.mp: Death rates among people with severe COVID-19 drop by a half in England. It’s possible that the higher death rates at the peak of the pandemic are in part because hospitals were so overcrowded at that [...] | 16:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: U.S. Says Virus Can't be Controlled. China Aims to Prove It Wrong. → https://is.gd/t3HVdX | 16:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: U.S. Hits Highest Single-Day Number of COVID-19 Cases for Any Country, England to Enter Lockdown → https://is.gd/qJFM4A | 16:41 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +29905 cases (now 709335), +208 deaths (now 38826) since 23 hours ago — US: +11229 cases (now 9.4 million), +54 deaths (now 236155) since 2 hours ago | 17:24 |
| Jigsy | Haircut day changed to Wed. \o/ | 17:40 |
| Jigsy | %cases UK | 17:43 |
| Brainstorm | Jigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 1.0 million confirmed cases (1.6% of the population) and 46717 deaths (4.5% of cases) as of 9 minutes ago. 33.5 million tests were performed (3.1% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 17:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Sunday 01 November Update: submitted by /u/HippolasCage to r/CoronavirusUK → https://is.gd/pbxE1A | 17:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): China_Flu: Charlie Hebdo trial suspended as suspect catches Covid-19 → https://is.gd/Id3HTo | 18:02 |
| ghost_rider[m] | ^^ lol, why not try new therapy. | 18:24 |
| Jigsy | Are banks classified as non-essential? | 18:32 |
| blkshp | No | 18:33 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Slovakia tested 2 581 113 citizens in a single day with the antigen tests with positive rate about 1% (25 850); testing continues on Sunday across the nation (10036 votes) | https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/836264/plosne-testovanie-takto-dopadol-prvy-den-v-cislach/ | https://redd.it/jlzmk1 | 18:44 |
| Jigsy | Sure is warm outside... | 18:47 |
| LjL | de-facto, ↑ slovakia | 18:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): China_Flu: Redditors en masse defend China's brutal lock-down strategy that involved welding families inside their homes and shooting anyone caught violating quarantine. → https://is.gd/cw2eGS | 18:56 |
| tinwhiskers | Lol. That reddit title. | 19:07 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, fwiw i just changed the sorting strategy for those subreddits to see if i can catch fewer cruft articles | 19:08 |
| tinwhiskers | Ah. Cool. | 19:08 |
| LjL | it's currently https://old.reddit.com/user/LjLies/m/covid19ljl.rss?limit=5 | 19:10 |
| LjL | but reddit rss is fiddly, there are many options but it's not immediately clear what sort of results they will... result in | 19:11 |
| de-facto | LjL, yeah Slovakia, they just do it, afaik with some light pressure, something like easing restrictions for participants in testing | 19:11 |
| tinwhiskers | I guess the anti lockdown people may be picking up their rhetoric with the need for lockdowns being so obvious now. | 19:11 |
| LjL | de-facto, it's antigen tests though so (didn't read the article) maybe they just do it themselves at home, making the only logistical hurdle obtaining the tests and mailing them | 19:12 |
| de-facto | i read something about testing centers | 19:12 |
| LjL | it's a lot of people to test in centers | 19:12 |
| LjL | %wa population of slovakia | 19:12 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, Wolfram|Alpha (Slovakia | population): Result: 5.46 million people (world rank: 117th) (2019 estimate) → https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=population+of+slovakia | 19:12 |
| LjL | de-facto, oh. the reddit thread makes me surmise they mostly haven't tested retired people, because basically the tests are required to go to work, so those without that incentive won't get tested :\ | 19:14 |
| LjL | so forget about a good indication of real prevalence i guess | 19:14 |
| LjL | sample is very large but far from random | 19:14 |
| LjL | "However the only thing that absolutely confuses me is the fact that without a test they can't go to the doctors'." | 19:16 |
| de-facto | I wonder if it will be visible on their incidence, like ending a lot of infection chains at once | 19:18 |
| LjL | and someone says that many elderly people didn't go to get tested because the testing centers themselves may be a vehicle of contagion, while those elderly people may have not left their house in six months so they are unlikely to be positive | 19:18 |
| LjL | but if it means you can't go to the doctor without a test, well, to me that seems like a bit of a shitty thing. i thought i remembered the EU recommending not to restrict people based on "immunity passports", nevermind passports that aren't even of immunity | 19:19 |
| de-facto | maybe the idea is not about immunity but rather about gathering sick people with the doctors and wanting to exclude SARS-CoV-2 contagion there? | 19:20 |
| LjL | well, today we have just about as many cases in lombardy (and marginally fewer nationally) than yesterday despite less testing, like every sunday. which means a meaningfully higher percentage of positives. | 19:20 |
| LjL | de-facto, okay but again, what about gathering sick people together with non-sick people to take the test? and what about gathering almost-certainly-non-sick-but-vulnerable people (i.e. elderly who had been self-isolating all along) with sick people just so that they can go to their family doctor, which is particularly important for old people? | 19:21 |
| LjL | it seems like an ill-devised and not very humane thing to me, at least going by what these reddit comments say (the article doesn't like my ad blocker) | 19:22 |
| de-facto | yeah good points | 19:22 |
| LjL | anyway, pessimistic opinion piece of the day: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30151-8/fulltext | 19:22 |
| de-facto | maybe they should send the test (e.g. via postal service) to them in advance and have them do the test themselves | 19:23 |
| LjL | de-facto, might not work if the goal is keeping those sick from going to work, as people may lie if they do it themselves | 19:23 |
| de-facto | i still think the impact from such antigen tests only can really develop when they are used on LARGE scale and that means people have to do the tests themselves in my opinion | 19:23 |
| LjL | de-facto, well, aside from my ethical reservations on this, it was definitely done on a large scale, at least for the country involved... 50% or so of the population" | 19:24 |
| LjL | someone notes it's a very rural country and that makes it easier. i don't know if that's true, but i can imagine Milan would look like a mess if they decided to test EVERYONE in centers in a single day | 19:25 |
| de-facto | so if those detected positive normally would contribute to incidence (as in not knowing about their infectious status) i wonder how big the impact from telling them they have to isolate now is on incidence | 19:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Europe's COVID-19 cases double in five weeks, total infections surpass 10 million → https://is.gd/WaByda | 19:27 |
| de-facto | i guess we will see a peak from that massive testing, but hopefully after that incidence should reduce compared to a scenario without such large scale testing effort | 19:27 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid: New breath test could detect virus in seconds → https://is.gd/eGPD1U | 19:45 |
| de-facto | ^^ interesting | 19:59 |
| de-facto | %title https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-54718848 | 19:59 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.bbc.com: Covid: New breath test could detect virus in seconds - BBC News | 19:59 |
| de-facto | %title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30353-9/fulltext | 20:00 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.thelancet.com: Diagnosis of COVID-19 by analysis of breath with gas chromatography-ion mobility spectrometry - a feasibility study - EClinicalMedicine | 20:00 |
| metreo | does it detect bad breath as well :) | 20:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from Ars Technica: Gaming & Culture: NatGeo’s Virus Hunters showcases scientists racing to stop next pandemic → https://is.gd/08Fn5i | 20:03 |
| LjL | see not all that gets posted from worldnews is crap | 20:03 |
| LjL | "In 80% of cases, they were able to accurately predict if the patient had Covid-19 - distinguishing the illness from other breathing problems such as asthma or bacterial pneumonia." | 20:04 |
| LjL | not a great rate | 20:04 |
| metreo | but it reliable detected *an* illness | 20:05 |
| metreo | didn't read fwiw | 20:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Half of Slovakia's population tested for coronavirus in one day → https://is.gd/CexWyw | 20:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Mexicans celebrate restricted Day of the Dead amid coronavirus upheaval → https://is.gd/cEMadF | 21:33 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +1565 cases (now 237477), +56 deaths (now 10192) since 15 hours ago — US: +40934 cases (now 9.5 million), +196 deaths (now 236351) since 4 hours ago — France: +23748 cases (now 1.4 million), +231 deaths (now 37019) since 15 hours ago — United Kingdom: +21687 cases (now 1.0 million), +162 deaths (now 46717) since 15 hours ago | 22:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: New English lockdown could last longer than month, govt says: A new four-week coronavirus lockdown in England will be extended if it fails to reduce infection rates, the government said Sunday, as it faced criticism over the abrupt decision to shut down again. → https://is.gd/DPO416 | 22:09 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: SARS-CoV-2 viral load is associated with increased disease severity and mortality (88 votes) | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19057-5 | https://redd.it/jm7h4y | 22:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Israel begins coronavirus vaccine trials: Israel began clinical trials of a novel coronavirus vaccine on Sunday, authorities said, as the government loosens a second lockdown imposed to stem soaring infections. → https://is.gd/i5leCX | 22:27 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Slight reduction in SARS-CoV-2 exposure viral load due to masking results in a significant reduction in transmission with widespread implementation (82 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.13.20193508v2 | https://redd.it/jm8omo | 22:39 |
| prodormo[m] | Are mathematical models trustworthy? The imperial college study was awfully inaccurate, and to make a model about masks and coronavirus we need to make assumptions about mask efficacy at blocking viral prticles. If somebody knows of such studies could they please cite them, i fail to find them in the Goyal study. | 23:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Coronavirus: Spain's funeral homes strike as cases rise → https://is.gd/SHoZNE | 23:03 |
| tinwhiskers | prodormo[m]: it's a very broad question. Mathematical models are pretty much never absolutely correct. The less-well you have parametrised the model, the less accurate it will be, therefore the less you understand what you are modelling the worse the outcome. We knew very little, and still know very little about many aspects of covid. Added to that, if you're modelling anything that involves human behaviour it's always going to be | 23:19 |
| tinwhiskers | tricky. | 23:19 |
| tinwhiskers | However, they are still the best way to have to make predictions. | 23:19 |
| tinwhiskers | In particular they are useful for sensitivity analysis; that is to see which parameters in your model results in the largest changes in model result, showing what things need more study to pin down better data, and those things that we most need to concentrate management efforts on. | 23:21 |
| tinwhiskers | So you may well be able to say, if we do X then the results are likely to be better than if we do Y, however if you want precise values then most models will leave you disappointed. They are good for comparing scenarios though. | 23:22 |
| prodormo[m] | Cool, i just now found the mingming (2020) metaanalisis, in which i suppose they are basing their model on. Up to now i only knew about the 2009 metaanalisis by Xiao, so i guess i had obsolete info, thanks for the reply. | 23:28 |
| tinwhiskers | prodormo[m]: as for mask efficacy in the models, that's a small and relatively straight-forward component of the spread. How humans actually behave is going to a be a source of much more variation. Considering the political nature of mask and distancing behaviour you're making some pretty wild guesses. | 23:28 |
| tinwhiskers | s/variation/uncertainty/ | 23:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Brazilians protest mandatory COVID-19 immunization, Chinese vaccine → https://is.gd/QyxamX | 23:47 |
| Jigsy | The lockdown could (read as will) be expended past December 2nd. | 23:55 |
| Jigsy | extended* | 23:55 |
| tinwhiskers | Yeah, seems almost certain it will need to be. | 23:57 |
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