| LjL | de-facto, no, but i have an idea, maybe we should allocate 1% of the tests to random sampling so that we can figure things like this one out! | 00:02 |
|---|---|---|
| LjL | de-facto, i read 428 deaths in italy today :( | 00:03 |
| LjL | well, now yesterday | 00:03 |
| de-facto | oh hopefully that is just a spike | 00:04 |
| de-facto | but numbers increase, here too :( | 00:04 |
| de-facto | somehow the curve for italy already looks like its not really exponential anymore, while the curve for germany very much looks like exponential http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy;Germany&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&miscType=Reff | 00:06 |
| de-facto | like if you tick log scale italy is below a straight line already | 00:07 |
| LjL | de-facto, yes, aside from the deaths, the cases have been somewhat more subdued in the past few days. with any luck, it's not just a fluke but the effect of the earlier semi-lockdown | 00:07 |
| de-facto | at least end of Oct start of Nov | 00:07 |
| LjL | but even if cases slow down, there is ample time for hospitalizations to exceed capacity, with consequent deaths :\ they acted too late, as usual | 00:07 |
| LjL | and even the new lockdown is completely silly | 00:07 |
| LjL | Lombardy is locked down, but other regions that REALLY should be locked down are not even in the tier just below lockdown | 00:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: The Readout LOUD: Listen: Bracing for a pandemic winter, Biogen’s fortune at the FDA, and remembering a remarkable 12-year-old → https://is.gd/0q4Qez | 00:08 |
| de-facto | the fatalities for germany are even bending upwards on log scale meaning they increase FASTER than exponential | 00:08 |
| de-facto | dang :( | 00:08 |
| de-facto | so doubling times decrease | 00:10 |
| de-facto | for italy they seem to increase | 00:10 |
| rpifan | de-facto, so the lockdown light is useless | 00:14 |
| rpifan | as i predicted | 00:14 |
| rpifan | we need a real one | 00:14 |
| de-facto | well its not useless, but i would also think we need to do more | 00:15 |
| LjL | how can you say it's useless, it's been what, a week? | 00:16 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>while the curve for germany very much looks like exponential<< we ee R_eff dropping during last few days | 00:18 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&miscType=Reff&leftTrim=-30&legacy=no | 00:20 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +5345 cases (now 9.9 million), +49 deaths (now 240884) since 32 minutes ago | 00:21 |
| LjL | DocScrutinizer05, i think he's talking about the deaths | 00:21 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | obviously R_eff *tells* about the "exponetiality" of the incidences curve | 00:21 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | aaah those are 4 weeks late | 00:21 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | really no other effect than just stupid simple delay | 00:22 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | at least "short" term | 00:22 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | so yes, we'l see fatalisues rate grow until chrismass I guess | 00:23 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | fatalities* | 00:23 |
| de-facto | nope it also can be diffusion of prevalence from the high mobility groups through isolation efforts into the vulnerable groups, so there could be a faster increase in fatalities than incidence increased a few weeks ago | 00:24 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | our vulberable group is 22 million in Germany | 00:24 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | no such thing | 00:24 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | there can be clusters, yes | 00:25 |
| de-facto | they have been shielded of course, prevalence in vulnerable groups is lower | 00:27 |
| de-facto | so they have more potential for increase than non shielded high contact rate groups | 00:28 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I don't see much "shielding" for the >60y neighbors of which there are a lot around me and prolly everywhere in Germany, and it's not only those that suffer severe covid | 00:30 |
| metreo | the only thing that will work in the long run will be plastic containment bubbles | 00:31 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | again: 22 million, said the Doc that now does the "Drosten poscast" bi-weekly | 00:31 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | make that 10 million and still it's absurd and bizarre to assume we could shield them | 00:32 |
| metreo | .title https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.newsapi.com.au%2Fimage%2Fv1%2F0a265433564640ed762d44fe7b202143%3Fwidth%3D1024&f=1&nofb=1 | 00:32 |
| Brainstorm | metreo: From external-content.duckduckgo.com: document without title | 00:32 |
| metreo | she doesn't look happy, though as long as I could bring my laptop in and have internet I'd be ok | 00:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Pay people to get COVID-19 jab to ensure widespread coverage, says leading ethicist: Governments should consider incentivising people to get a COVID-19 jab, when the vaccine becomes available, to achieve the required level of herd immunity—which could be up to 80%+ of the population—and stamp out the infection, argues a [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/L0wLZs | 00:36 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +546 cases (now 9.9 million), +7 deaths (now 240891) since 17 minutes ago | 00:36 |
| de-facto | yes hence prevalence will arrive in those 22 million too, so it makes sense that R_fatalities > R_incidence for some time | 00:40 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | "leading ethicist" ... with no clue. those not actively seeking for a vaccine may got get the clap err covid as soon as I and the vulnerable ones I care about are safe from vaccine | 00:40 |
| LjL | i think that kind of prioritization is pretty much taken for granted... it IS an issue that we may not be able to reach herd immunity state with voluntary vaccination, so the leading ethicist does have a clue IMO, unless you nitpick on the things that are simply left unsaid but assumed | 00:42 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | not nitpicking, just ignorant. What's those unsaid implications? | 00:43 |
| LjL | ... that it would be given to vulnerable people first | 00:44 |
| LjL | the whole article is based on the "what else could we do than make it compulsory if voluntary isn't enough" question | 00:44 |
| LjL | which comes AFTER vulnerable categories get it | 00:44 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I guess most will know if they're vulnerable group or not. Those who are but deny and refuse to get vaccinated won't get convinced by bribery | 00:44 |
| LjL | you're a little rough around the edges, you know that? | 00:45 |
| LjL | i am too so maybe that makes it easier for me to recognize it | 00:45 |
| ghost_rider[m] | :D | 00:46 |
| de-facto | well the thing is we sit all in one boat with this, it does not really work like that | 00:50 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I'm just saying that with vulnerable groups vaccinated, the rest may actually reasinably consider achieving immunity the 'natural' way if they think that's preferable. We won't suffer many severe cases at that point | 00:50 |
| de-facto | nope thats also not true even in the young there are severe cases and if incidence just explodes in the face of the healthcare system it cant be stopped | 00:51 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | so whether we convice them to get vaccinated or they catch the virus doesn't make much difference really | 00:51 |
| de-facto | i mean its just an exponential of age | 00:52 |
| de-facto | it does because ICU beds will get full with them too | 00:52 |
| LjL | herd immunity (the real one) is seeked precisely because some in the most vulnerable categories may not be able to receive a vaccine safely | 00:53 |
| LjL | so they *rely* on almost everyone else having received a vaccine | 00:53 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | err, aha. isn't "vulnerable" ) "high probability of ICU"? | 00:53 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | err, aha. isn't "vulnerable" = "high probability of ICU"? | 00:53 |
| LjL | it's also people for whom getting a shot may be risky | 00:54 |
| LjL | some of them | 00:54 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | sure | 00:54 |
| LjL | and also, we don't know that vaccines will offer 100% protection, they may not, just like the flu vaccine doesn't | 00:54 |
| LjL | with most vaccines you want, you need, to reach herd immunity levels | 00:54 |
| de-facto | so assuming IFR(age) = 100% Exp[ Log[2] age / 5.75 ] / 1820 its just a factor, e.g. IFR[70] / IFR[30] = 124.2 | 00:54 |
| LjL | if 60% of people decide not to get vaccinated, things won't work well | 00:54 |
| LjL | even if 30% don't | 00:54 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | still, who the heck that is not getting vaccination even when for free is going to get it when you get money on top. That's utter bullshit | 00:55 |
| de-facto | so incidence may be 124-fold higher but hospitals still would be overwhelmed by cases and then it is amost impossible to stop such a MASSIVE wafe | 00:55 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | meh | 00:56 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | there are two sorts of people: "for free?! GIMME!" and "No, you're going to give me autism. Now you want to convince me by bribery? Is there a chip in that too now??? go away!" | 00:58 |
| de-facto | and assuming endemic state in R0 p = R0 (1 - s) == 1 yields a portion of p = 1 - 1 / R0 = (R0 - 1) / R0 for crossing constant incidence with an R = R0 (1 - s) = 1. yet of course that would be approached so even if not all get vaccinated the effective R is reduced by that portion p | 00:59 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | honesty, I'm not even going to try understand what assumptions you make in your math | 00:59 |
| de-facto | i assume a completely susceptible and naive population unaware of any pathogen with R0. then if a part s of the susceptible gets removed the R0 is reduced by that portion p = 1 - s. Imagine 100 contacts and 100*s are not susceptible anymore, so then only 100 ( 1 - s) contribute to an effective R = R0 ( 1 - s) | 01:02 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | meanwhile, greatest comedian of the world gives a live performance which I fonna enjoy with popcorn | 01:02 |
| ghost_rider[m] | DocScrutinizer05: question of trust, I don't trust the western solutions since I know is all about profit. I'm sure my self that I can be wrong, but no. If I have the option to choose which one, maybe I take. | 01:08 |
| de-facto | what i am trying to say is that even if less than herd immunity is reached by vaccination dynamics will slow down, e.g. exponentials based on lower R just as if additional "virtual" non-pharmaceutical measures were in place | 01:09 |
| ghost_rider[m] | de-facto: thanks so much for explaining to a retard like me, I was struggling and looking to that as char's art. Beautiful by the way | 01:10 |
| de-facto | its always smooth transitions with such parameters | 01:11 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | a very true statement | 01:12 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | until we run into a tripping point | 01:13 |
| de-facto | yes there may be feedback loops amplifying effects, but even then transitioning into those states allowing for that will be by smooth changes of parameters | 01:15 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | and look, this >>leading ethicist<< is really an ignorant and prolly idiot, who didn't hear of things like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osborne_effect ever. So I just can hope for his ideas nit taking wider public appreciation | 01:17 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | cause _if_ they do, we will see LESS vaccinations, not more | 01:18 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | car shops going bankrupt because car industry asked for several k€ of (tax payback) incentives for buying a new car, in Germany, anybody? | 01:22 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | they went bankraupt BECAUSE, not in spite of | 01:23 |
| de-facto | their assumed 80% would mean R0 = 5 for passing endemic | 01:24 |
| de-facto | and reading that article i get the impression many thoughts are not finished | 01:24 |
| ghost_rider[m] | Even with all of this, society will not put science first, scientists over soccer players, ... | 01:25 |
| ghost_rider[m] | People don't trust vax, instead of changing how health industry operates, no, let's manipulate or force... | 01:26 |
| de-facto | i think the majority trusts the concept of vaccinations, and there obviously is a risk on everyone imposed by the pandemic already, so if individual risk can be lowered by vaccination it should be a no brainer | 01:28 |
| de-facto | that is what they mean with ensuring benefits outway the costs in terms of probabilities | 01:28 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | sorry for my grumpiness, I just can't stand that amount of bullshit everywhere at the moment. Possibly a severe case of morbus Trump | 01:29 |
| ghost_rider[m] | de-facto: yes, I understand what you say, but I was thinking as many that fear due to industry being profit oriented. | 01:30 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I promise I'll seek for help my a psychologist ;-D | 01:30 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | leading ethicist pfffff | 01:31 |
| de-facto | ghost_rider[m], afaik there were deals with AstraZeneca to produce the vaccine without benefits | 01:31 |
| de-facto | im sure with others too | 01:32 |
| de-facto | its gonna be a harsh winter, but i think next year we will solve a lot of those issues and things will start to look a lot better | 01:36 |
| de-facto | and to be honest i think most people will participate in vaccinations, i am looking forward to having this option to somewhat lift the worrying on getting infected by being vaccinated | 01:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Victoria, Australia has gone seven straight days with no new coronavirus cases nor deaths → https://is.gd/US3Faz | 01:39 |
| rpifan | well its already winter | 01:40 |
| rpifan | oh shit thats right | 01:40 |
| rpifan | tommorow | 01:40 |
| rpifan | im getting my flu shot | 01:40 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | you're alte, eh? | 01:41 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | late* | 01:41 |
| rpifan | idk | 01:45 |
| rpifan | i dont usually trust them or like them | 01:45 |
| rpifan | but given my weak immune system | 01:45 |
| rpifan | its worth it | 01:45 |
| ghost_rider[m] | They don't trust themselves but I will. | 01:45 |
| rpifan | flu shots | 01:47 |
| rpifan | tend to make ppl sick | 01:47 |
| yuriwho | I'm gonna get both flu and covid vaccines (once I review the safety/efficacy data) | 01:52 |
| yuriwho | hopefully I'll get a choice of which vaccine to get | 01:53 |
| ryouma | do any of the vaccines shed virus aft3er you take it | 01:53 |
| yuriwho | no | 01:53 |
| yuriwho | there is a chinese vaccine that could, but none of the others | 01:54 |
| ghost_rider[m] | yuriwho: I'm of the same opinion, I wold like to choose, not imposed by political reasons | 01:55 |
| de-facto | yuriwho, if you get a choice, which category of vaccine would you prefer? | 02:03 |
| LjL | well you're going to be lucky if you get a choice | 02:04 |
| LjL | i highly doubt my country will get a choice | 02:04 |
| LjL | we can't even get a goddamned flu shot | 02:04 |
| yuriwho | I'm leaning towards the mRNA vaccines... but I'll need to see that data first | 02:04 |
| de-facto | yeah i am very curious about those too | 02:05 |
| LjL | i'm not a fan of getting an adenovirus vaccine early, and having that vector "burned" | 02:05 |
| de-facto | well if its in widespread use they will come up with another vector for next iterations | 02:06 |
| yuriwho | I expect that over time, people will get one vaccine at first followed by a different vaccine as a booster.... it's gonna rapidly get into untested combinations | 02:07 |
| LjL | how fun | 02:08 |
| de-facto | personally i am very curious about those nasal spray vaccinations, yet they seem to work with a vector too, i am curious if we will see attenuated original pathogen at some point | 02:08 |
| yuriwho | so start with an non-adenoviral vector first, it also depends on your own personal history of previous adenoviral vectored vaccines | 02:08 |
| yuriwho | de-facto: china has 2 attenuated SARS-CoV-2 vaccines | 02:09 |
| de-facto | attenuated or dead? | 02:09 |
| yuriwho | as well as other vaccines | 02:09 |
| yuriwho | both... but there can be live virus in any virus that starts with a live virus that is chemically treated to reduce or kill it | 02:10 |
| de-facto | yeah Sinuvac, Bejin institude of BioProducts and Wuhan institute of BioProducts (Sunopharm), but those are inactivated, so i guess they wont be able to infect cells | 02:11 |
| de-facto | at least if they are produced properly | 02:11 |
| de-facto | what i mean is a live "functional" virus but with some essential part removed that prevents it from getting severe | 02:12 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Christian preacher who said unmarried sex causes coronavirus dies from coronavirus (10956 votes) | https://deadstate.org/christian-preacher-who-said-unmarried-sex-causes-coronavirus-dies-from-coronavirus/ | https://redd.it/jotc2h | 02:12 |
| de-facto | lol omg | 02:13 |
| LjL | i wish they stopped posting that gloating stupidity on r/coronavirus | 02:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: Can mass testing save us from another lockdown?: Cheap and rapid tests are now available, but what can they realistically achieve? → https://is.gd/4VvoPZ | 02:15 |
| de-facto | testing became a real problem, delay times may be in the ragen of weeks | 02:18 |
| de-facto | thats ridiculous, why test then? | 02:18 |
| de-facto | *range of weeks | 02:19 |
| de-facto | i know someone waiting two weeks for the result, another was done on monday, still no result available | 02:19 |
| de-facto | thats unacceptable | 02:19 |
| de-facto | then they should sell antigen quicktests in the supermarket if they cant scale with their infrastructure | 02:20 |
| LjL | de-facto, where are you reading it wakes weeks? | 02:21 |
| LjL | takes | 02:21 |
| de-facto | just what i head from those getting tested currently, maybe those are exceptions but i suspect their capacity is exceeded already | 02:23 |
| de-facto | we need to have something MUCH quicker that scales | 02:24 |
| LjL | i see | 02:24 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Postmortem lungs of COVID-19 patients show massive damage (80 votes) | https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/11/postmortem-lungs-covid-19-patients-show-massive-damage | https://redd.it/jolf2v | 02:24 |
| LjL | well, i agree it's very suboptimal, but i don't agree with "why test then" - if my aunt didn't get tested, she couldn't quarantine and his husband couldn't self-isolate without risking losing their jobs | 02:25 |
| LjL | there are reasons for testing that are not purely scientific | 02:25 |
| de-facto | yes ok granted, what i meant is that usually people would quarantine for two weeks when testing positive, so if the result takes that long anyhow most people would not be infectious anymore by then | 02:26 |
| de-facto | and self isolation may not be that strictly followed while waiting for a result than if someone knows there is an infection going on | 02:26 |
| LjL | they just weren't expecting a spike like the one we've had. they should have been, but they weren't. | 02:27 |
| de-facto | indeed | 02:27 |
| LjL | but when things aren't going like you were expecting, and you are like "uh-oh"... to me that means lockdown, now | 02:28 |
| LjL | so i'm not so surprised they are running out of testing capacity now | 02:28 |
| LjL | i'm surprised they didn't lockdown sooner, knowing that would happen soon | 02:28 |
| de-facto | yes exactly and also force quarantine of anyone suspected to get infected, e.g. possible clusters or such | 02:28 |
| de-facto | we just cant afford to wait for testing capacity to ramp up | 02:28 |
| LjL | these rapid tests... they may be rapid, but the time between their being promised and their actually being available doesn't seem to be very rapid | 02:29 |
| de-facto | yes i dont get this, almost 10 months into this and still no tests in the supermarket?! | 02:30 |
| LjL | we don't even have real masks in the supermarket, though | 02:30 |
| de-facto | ok regulations certifications whatever but why not speed those up then | 02:30 |
| de-facto | any test is better than no test | 02:30 |
| de-facto | yeah and that too | 02:30 |
| LjL | i wonder if China has quick tests in their supermarkets | 02:31 |
| LjL | i wonder what life in China is like these days | 02:31 |
| de-facto | well here they did sell some surgical mask packs in ALDI for some time | 02:31 |
| LjL | de-facto, well i showed you some "surgicals" the other day... sure, i got those from a supermarket | 02:32 |
| LjL | but that's why i said "real" | 02:32 |
| de-facto | but not really many, it was just offered at the cashier desk for those not having them from the internet already | 02:32 |
| de-facto | in my opinion it should be mandatory for supermarkets to offer masks and tests and for cheap in large quantities | 02:33 |
| de-facto | it should just be made possible | 02:33 |
| LjL | it's mandatory for the "surgical" masks being produced now to be sold for 50 cents or less in Italy | 02:33 |
| LjL | it's not mandatory for supermarkets to stock them i guess, but in practice they do... mostly | 02:33 |
| LjL | anyway they are not scarce, everyone is wearing one. they just suck | 02:34 |
| de-facto | well thats good already, even if they are not perfect it will already make a big difference if they are easily and cheaply available to the broad public | 02:34 |
| LjL | or at least, it's impossible to know whether you're buying a type that sucks, or a type that's decent | 02:34 |
| de-facto | ok room for improvement then, still they are available so thats really good | 02:35 |
| LjL | de-facto, will it? it's been mandatory to wear masks in all shops and other indoor places in Italy for months. then they made it mandatory outdoors too. but we still had a bad spike... | 02:35 |
| LjL | not as bad, and not as soon, as France or Spain, but still worse than Germany, so far | 02:36 |
| de-facto | well but its unknown how bad it would have been without those | 02:36 |
| LjL | i think if there's little to no difference in the spike between Italy and other places where there is no mask mandate, then maybe, sure, everything is ultimately unknown and unknowable with absolute certainty, but i think it's fair to say they work less than one would have hoped | 02:37 |
| LjL | it was fair, months ago, to hope that consistent wearing of masks indoors would avoid the need for another lockdown | 02:38 |
| de-facto | it always depends on what the main transmission path is | 02:38 |
| LjL | that has proven to be false, unfortunately | 02:38 |
| de-facto | if its people speaking face to face outdoors masks may block them spitting at each others | 02:38 |
| de-facto | if its aerosol indoors such simple masks may not be so effective indeed | 02:38 |
| LjL | it has often been repeated that indoors was the main risk, and fomites not so much | 02:38 |
| LjL | i am not sure there is very certain evidence for this | 02:39 |
| LjL | but it has very often been repeated | 02:39 |
| de-facto | still they will block ballistic droplets so in every situation where people are close together they will help | 02:39 |
| de-facto | but of course aerosol also has to be addressed especially now in the winter | 02:39 |
| LjL | i just wish i were seeing any hint of that help in the numbers in my city, you know | 02:39 |
| de-facto | there are many studies supporting that, the one from the meat processing plant in NRW (Tönnies) comes into my mind | 02:40 |
| de-facto | they clearly have found transmission by aerosol up to 8m declining with radius, exactly as if it was diluted by air volume | 02:41 |
| de-facto | actually i think the most effective way is to reduce contact rates | 02:42 |
| LjL | remind me, are the WHO or CDC accepting this as true yet? | 02:42 |
| de-facto | i go shopping only once a week or even less, just to reduce contacts | 02:42 |
| LjL | i won't even ask about the ECDC because i don't assume they are doing or saying much of anything, but feel free to prove me wrong there too | 02:42 |
| LjL | de-facto, we shop online but the delivery slots are starting to be a problem again | 02:43 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Immunodominant T-cell epitopes from the SARS-CoV-2 spike antigen reveal robust pre-existing T-cell immunity in unexposed individuals (80 votes) | https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.03.367375v1 | https://redd.it/jofu6l | 02:43 |
| LjL | it's almost a week now to the next free slot. when it reaches a week, it means all slots are filled and you have to just get lucky and be first | 02:43 |
| LjL | in UNexposed individuals? | 02:44 |
| ryouma | will be going to dentist who forbids you wearing your own mask. they hand you one. i trust my masks. i do not trust unknown masks. i do not trust handing procedure. i do not trust taking off and putting on procedure. | 02:45 |
| LjL | you will be taking off both your and their mask once they're doing their dental work anyway | 02:45 |
| ryouma | right but i don't want to put on something they have touched or stuff has fallen on and as they supposedly use uv in the room i'd rather have a mask i trust) there and back | 02:47 |
| yuriwho | my dentist makes you gargle hydrogen peroxide for 30 secs and spit it out before dental work | 02:48 |
| de-facto | there were even papers about mouthwashes containing ethanol that temporarily reduce viral load significantly | 02:49 |
| de-facto | but of course those would only reach the virions on top of the mucus not the ones currently replicating in cells | 02:50 |
| de-facto | oh btw yuriwho do you know how long it takes on average for a cell from infection to shedding newly produces virions? | 02:50 |
| de-facto | *newly produced virions | 02:51 |
| de-facto | like a replication cycle | 02:51 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +9621 cases (now 9.9 million), +62 deaths (now 240953) since 2 hours ago — Canada: +425 cases (now 251338), +1 deaths (now 10382) since 5 hours ago | 02:51 |
| yuriwho | de-facto: about 2 hours: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30004-5/fulltext | 02:53 |
| de-facto | oh that is fast | 02:54 |
| de-facto | thank you for that link :) | 02:54 |
| Jigsy | %cases UK | 02:56 |
| Brainstorm | Jigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 1.1 million confirmed cases (1.7% of the population) and 48120 deaths (4.3% of cases) as of 4 hours ago. 35.2 million tests were performed (3.2% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 02:56 |
| Jigsy | %cases world | 02:56 |
| LjL | %cases world | 02:58 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In World, there have been 49.2 million confirmed cases (0.6% of the population) and 1.2 million deaths (2.5% of cases) as of 9 minutes ago. 852.5 million tests were performed (5.8% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.3% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.5% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=World for time series data. | 02:58 |
| LjL | Jigsy, i dunno why it didn't answer you | 02:59 |
| LjL | logs show nothing | 02:59 |
| Jigsy | %cases world | 03:00 |
| Jigsy | Oh, you did it. | 03:00 |
| Brainstorm | Jigsy: In World, there have been 49.2 million confirmed cases (0.6% of the population) and 1.2 million deaths (2.5% of cases) as of 11 minutes ago. 852.5 million tests were performed (5.8% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.3% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.5% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=World for time series data. | 03:00 |
| Jigsy | Guessing there's a throttle or something. | 03:00 |
| LjL | there's not supposed to be. but i didn't set the command as unthreaded. you typed both commands in quick succession and that may have been a problem, but it's a guess since again, logs show nothing | 03:01 |
| de-facto | yuriwho, so you take 2h from the graphs for viral copies starting at 2 hpi to diverge from 0 copies? | 03:02 |
| yuriwho | the first replication cycle is the slowest.... | 03:03 |
| yuriwho | after a while it hits a maximum per cell | 03:04 |
| yuriwho | many cells start to commit suicide once the stress of viral replication at max happens | 03:04 |
| de-facto | so its inoculation then after 2h the shy release of first generation and then it begins to take off ? | 03:05 |
| yuriwho | it depends on the cell type | 03:05 |
| yuriwho | but 2 hours is the lag between inoculation and new virions | 03:05 |
| de-facto | yeah makes sense | 03:06 |
| de-facto | did not expect it to be that fast | 03:06 |
| yuriwho | in cell culture... the dynamics will be different (possibly slower) in a live animal | 03:06 |
| de-facto | would it take long time until the just released virions dock to a susceptible cell again to start the next replication cycle? | 03:08 |
| yuriwho | no not long.... they spread by diffusion, perhaps another 10 mins or so via lymph, faster in blood | 03:21 |
| de-facto | i am a bit puzzled that their hpi = {2, 24, 72, 120} values are so similar, i would have expected them to be a linear increase on their log10(copies) scale | 03:22 |
| yuriwho | it's not logarithmic inside a cell.... it's logarithmic in transmission | 03:24 |
| de-facto | but it only does that as exception e.g. Fig 1B SARS-CoV on Caco2 | 03:24 |
| de-facto | but those should be cycles = {1, 12, 36, 60 } so something like number_per_replication^cycles | 03:26 |
| de-facto | yet probably most of the released virions dont find their own exclusive cell | 03:27 |
| yuriwho | remember that Caco2 is a cancer cell line, very different from a nasal epithelial or lung cell | 03:27 |
| de-facto | so their concentration saturates pretty quickly and production becomes a linear function of time (e.g. all cells producing as quickly as they can)? | 03:27 |
| yuriwho | yes | 03:27 |
| de-facto | ah ok then those bars make sense | 03:28 |
| de-facto | they should have used lower inoculation doses i guess | 03:28 |
| yuriwho | the lab cell lines are all growing exponentially.... in a human, the cells are not replicating like crazy | 03:28 |
| de-facto | oh yeah that of course also plays a significant role | 03:29 |
| yuriwho | the experiments in that paper only reveal the fastest cycle possible | 03:29 |
| de-facto | yeah | 03:30 |
| de-facto | i was trying to get an exponential equation from those but it does not make sense | 03:30 |
| de-facto | like 10^log10(copies) == release_per_cycle ^ (time/generation_time) | 03:31 |
| de-facto | but it seems that is not possible | 03:31 |
| de-facto | but still if one would have a concentration(t) graphs e.g. from exponential phase of replication in nasal or throat and one would know the release_per_cycle if one could assume an average replication cycle time | 03:34 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | the system is very complex and modelling it doesn't allow new revelations | 03:54 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | we already know reality | 03:54 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | can't rhink of any prediction a model would enable that we didn't see a zillion times in real life already | 03:55 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | 2 conclusions seem valid: minimum time to symptoms, so 1h after contact to wirus there can't be any. And timespan in which antiviral medication takes best effect | 03:58 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | virus* | 03:59 |
| de-facto | yes i was wondering about the initial exponential replication phase, that would be useful to model, e.g. for safety margin from negative tests to infectious status or also for a local hit with an antiviral or even viricidal | 04:03 |
| de-facto | i just like to have some estimates for durations and scaling | 04:04 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Don’t Make Mine Mink (81 votes) | https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/11/05/dont-make-mine-mink | https://redd.it/jop936 | 04:08 |
| de-facto | oh there it also appeared in RSS | 04:09 |
| LjL | (reddit comment) "Impressively, they are going to test all 280,000 residents of North Jutland (or at least "ask" them, not sure if it's mandatory, translation didn't really clear it up) and sequence every single positive case they find to see if it matches the mutation (previously they'd sequenced about 17% of cases from that part of the country, which is still absurdly high)." | 04:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from Ars Technica: Science: Coronavirus cases skyrocket: Over 116,000 new cases, 53,000 hospitalized → https://is.gd/rfdk9T | 04:12 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Withdrawn - Decrease in Hospitalizations for COVID-19 after Mask Mandates in 1083 U.S. Counties (83 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.21.20208728v2 | https://redd.it/jovqd9 | 04:14 |
| de-facto | wow they want to test all 280k and sequence all positive? | 04:19 |
| LjL | more indication that they think this is extremely serious | 04:19 |
| LjL | IMO | 04:20 |
| tinwhiskers | just to reiterate... | 04:22 |
| tinwhiskers | wow | 04:22 |
| de-facto | they have 13-14k active cases in all of .dk | 04:36 |
| bin_bash | at least denmark has a functioning government thankfully | 04:37 |
| de-facto | well tested cases that is | 04:37 |
| de-facto | indeed | 04:37 |
| gigasu_shida | how's the 'lockdown' going ljl ? | 04:49 |
| LjL | i don't know, it just started five hours ago | 04:50 |
| gigasu_shida | i see | 04:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Coronavirus: Mink Covid Mutation, Denmark Sets Lockdown → https://is.gd/DiLRSS | 05:06 |
| gigasu_shida | omg belgium had more covid patients admitted to hospitals than in march | 05:06 |
| gigasu_shida | 877 vs. 629 | 05:06 |
| gigasu_shida | hopefully the average criticality of each patient now is lower than it was back in march | 05:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Covid app backed by Zara and Mike Tindall prompts safety concern → https://is.gd/WpoZpO | 05:15 |
| LjL | ugh... my concern with such an app wouldn't be the type of test it used | 05:22 |
| de-facto | RKI: Germany +21506 new infections (total 619089) and +166 fatalities (total 11096) in last 24h | 05:41 |
| kara[m] | question for the europeans | 05:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Global COVID Cases For 06NOV20: Summary As Of: 06NOV20 @ 04:06 GMT Countries 216 + 2 Cases 49,031,012 Deaths 1,239,608 Recovered 34,983,279 Active Cases 12,808,125 w/Active cases w/No Active cases w/All cases rcvrd Cntry’s 208 2 6 Cases 49,031,012 84 99 Deaths 1,239,608 2 0 Rcvrd 34,983,279 82 99 Daily totals of new: cases, [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/z7C0dN | 05:51 |
| tinwhiskers | kara[m]: go ahead. asking your question is far more likely to result in an answer. | 05:52 |
| kara[m] | tinwhiskers: but u did answer my first question :p | 05:57 |
| kara[m] | is the swedish approach actually good? I was looking at deaths / million | 05:57 |
| tinwhiskers | I don't see that anywhere... hrm. ok | 05:58 |
| tinwhiskers | in my opinion, no | 05:58 |
| tinwhiskers | but I'm afk for a bit | 05:58 |
| tinwhiskers | (also I'm not European so I guess I don't count) | 05:59 |
| kara[m] | sweden = 583.06 / M | 05:59 |
| kara[m] | usa = 709.15 / M | 05:59 |
| tinwhiskers | well comparing to USA is hardly the measure of a good strategy :-) | 06:00 |
| tinwhiskers | how does it compare to neighbouring countries? | 06:00 |
| kara[m] | edit: is the swedish approach not the worst approach? | 06:00 |
| kara[m] | https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/ | 06:01 |
| tinwhiskers | oh. it's not the worst approach. ok | 06:01 |
| LjL | tinwhiskers, very badly | 06:01 |
| LjL | http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Sweden;Denmark;Norway;Finland&byPopulation=yes | 06:01 |
| tinwhiskers | LjL: oh, I knew that. I was leaving it as an exercise for kara. | 06:01 |
| LjL | sorry | 06:01 |
| LjL | i'll sleep | 06:01 |
| tinwhiskers | lol | 06:02 |
| LjL | i am european and as such i should be asleep | 06:02 |
| kara[m] | is it true that sweden is going for a sorta herd immunity approach? | 06:08 |
| tinwhiskers | kara[m]: in as much as they are officially doing almost nothing, you could say that. In reality, despite no official lockdowns until recently the people there have behaved reasonably well anyway so they haven't fared *all that* much worse all things considered. | 06:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from EurekAlert!: Decrease in fossil-fuel CO2 emissions due to COVID-19 detected by atmospheric observations: Atmospheric observations at Hateruma Island, Japan, successfully detected the decrease in fossil-fuel CO2 emissions in China associated with the COVID-19 outbreak. The weather in Hateruma island is frequently influenced by the northwest [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/IU79e8 | 06:27 |
| tinwhiskers | but yeah, they publicly stated a goal toward herd immunity, at least during the early days | 06:27 |
| kara[m] | tinwhiskers: oh wait they're locking down now? | 06:35 |
| kara[m] | <tinwhiskers "but yeah, they publicly stated a"> i was thinking that if a country is gonna barely try long term (USA) they should just do the swedish approach | 06:35 |
| tinwhiskers | they've introduced some restrictions on size of gatherings at restaurants and bars, which is pretty typical "lockdown-lite" type rules. | 06:36 |
| kara[m] | ex; americans like "freedom, nobody tells me what to do". Gov tells them what to do. Americans like "no" | 06:36 |
| tinwhiskers | which is pretty much an admission that the strategy of doing nothing has not worked out. | 06:36 |
| kara[m] | but if it went: usa gov is like whatevr man, sink or swim. Americans might be like "uhh i'm wearing a mask and not going out much" | 06:37 |
| tinwhiskers | I doubt it. It's become too much of a political identity issue now. | 06:38 |
| tinwhiskers | at least some states are trying, but it's a shambles. | 06:38 |
| tinwhiskers | major cop-out by federal government. | 06:38 |
| tinwhiskers | they are certainly serving as an example of everything you can do wrong. | 06:39 |
| metreo | UK restricted public protests to 2 people | 06:39 |
| tinwhiskers | the country that *should* have been one of the best has proved one of the worst due to an utter failure of the federal government to provide any leadership whatsoever. | 06:40 |
| metreo | which country is that? | 06:40 |
| tinwhiskers | USA | 06:40 |
| metreo | USA is not the worst | 06:41 |
| tinwhiskers | "one of the worst" | 06:41 |
| metreo | :shrug: | 06:41 |
| tinwhiskers | yeah, that's exactly the attitude :-) | 06:41 |
| metreo | may as well apply that comment to all western countries | 06:41 |
| metreo | Mexico is doing much worse than the USA lately | 06:42 |
| tinwhiskers | you have to have your head buried in the sand to defend the US response in any way, shape or form. | 06:42 |
| tinwhiskers | it's non-existent | 06:42 |
| metreo | are you drunk? | 06:42 |
| tinwhiskers | lol | 06:42 |
| tinwhiskers | at the federal level it's worse than non-existent. It's actively harmful. | 06:43 |
| metreo | if you think the federal government matters to the majority of Americans you don't know what you're talking about | 06:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Denmark tightens lockdown over mink coronavirus mutation → https://is.gd/75RiJX | 06:45 |
| tinwhiskers | smh | 06:45 |
| kara[m] | metreo: ur american right? | 06:48 |
| kara[m] | metreo: do you think this would have worked? | 06:48 |
| kara[m] | "ex; americans like "freedom, nobody tells me what to do". Gov tells them what to do. Americans like "no" | 06:48 |
| kara[m] | but if it went: usa gov is like whatevr man, sink or swim. Americans might be like "uhh i'm wearing a mask and not going out much"" | 06:48 |
| kara[m] | anyone have a fav pandemic movie about like the spanish flu? | 06:52 |
| tinwhiskers | I enjoyed both Pandemic and Contagion. I haven't seen any others (none about Spanish Flu). | 06:54 |
| tinwhiskers | I guess there was 12 monkeys and you might count some zombie movies at a stretch :-) | 06:55 |
| tinwhiskers | Oh, Andromeda Strain I saw years ago but didn't like much at all. | 06:56 |
| tinwhiskers | Maybe if I saw it now I might see it in a different light. | 06:56 |
| kara[m] | tinwhiskers: this? "Pandemic (film), a 2016 American zombie film" | 07:00 |
| tinwhiskers | Oh. Umm. No. I may have the name wrong. | 07:01 |
| kara[m] | This movie is titlled incorrectly, but i liked https://yewtu.be/watch?v=crAol1vj6-Q | 07:02 |
| kara[m] | it's an invidious link | 07:02 |
| tinwhiskers | Oh, wait. Contagion and BBC Contagion | 07:02 |
| kara[m] | titled "Coronavirus movie Contagion full HD movie in English | Hollywood movies (2011)" | 07:02 |
| kara[m] | %title | 07:03 |
| Brainstorm | kara[m], the URL could not be loaded | 07:03 |
| kara[m] | !title | 07:03 |
| tinwhiskers | Yeah, Contagion (2011): https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1598778/ | 07:04 |
| kara[m] | i've been scouring youtube for contagion 2011, no luck | 07:05 |
| tinwhiskers | ah... well... we don't really do movie sharing talk on freenode, but there's always plenty of torrents of everything :-/ | 07:07 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +11128 cases (now 479341), +189 deaths (now 12520) since 23 hours ago — France: +9235 cases (now 1.6 million) since 11 hours ago — Netherlands: +1562 cases (now 392050), +11 deaths (now 7780) since 16 hours ago — Canada: +270 cases (now 251608), +13 deaths (now 10395) since 4 hours ago | 07:09 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: The circulating SARS-CoV-2 spike variant N439K maintains fitness while evading antibody-mediated immunity (80 votes) | https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.04.355842v1 | https://redd.it/joreqo | 07:13 |
| tinwhiskers | I mean you're welcome to talk about movies you like, etc, but please don't link to any movie sharing sites or discuss how/where to obtain them. | 07:14 |
| tinwhiskers | rather, any *illegal* sharing sites or direct streams. You are most welcome to link to Youtube or Vimeo or whatever to videos that are not breaching copyright. | 07:17 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +14459 cases (now 1.6 million), +26 deaths (now 39063) since 19 minutes ago — Lombardy, Italy: +8822 cases (now 233013), +139 deaths (now 17987) since 22 hours ago — Netherlands: +1748 cases (now 393798), +22 deaths (now 7802) since 19 minutes ago — United Kingdom: +1636 cases (now 1.1 million), +45 deaths (now 48165) since 8 hours ago | 07:24 |
| kara[m] | tinwhiskers: it is linked to youtube | 07:29 |
| kara[m] | youtube.com/watch?v=crAol1vj6-Q | 07:29 |
| tinwhiskers | lol. well. umm. ok. I've already seen it. | 07:33 |
| tinwhiskers | You are most welcome to link to Youtube or Vimeo or whatever *to videos that are not breaching copyright*. | 07:34 |
| tinwhiskers | I know it's there, but there really wasn't any need to link to it. No biggie. | 07:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Belgium has become a Covid hotspot. And there are four reasons why: Belgium, where the main EU institutions are based, is experiencing some of the highest Covid-19 daily infections in the Europe. → https://is.gd/LywlBl | 07:39 |
| tinwhiskers | I just ran across this comment by someone which I have not verified, but thought it was interesting: "According to the worldometer, [it's] a 97% survival rate. Unless you're in the US where its 96%. That's right, as of 11/5/20 a person has a better chance of surviving the virus in India, Russia, or Panama who all have a 98% survival rate." | 07:39 |
| kara[m] | oh i see, | 07:48 |
| kara[m] | my assumption is that if youtube's copyright AI don't flag a vid immediately, it's not copyright anymore for whatever reasons | 07:49 |
| kara[m] | unless the vid was just uploaded 1 hr ago | 07:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: US coronavirus cases climb by record for second day in a row, up over 120,000 → https://is.gd/PyLGma | 07:57 |
| tinwhiskers | kara[m]: yeah, don't sweat it | 08:03 |
| kara[m] | i'm not a lawyer, but i thought youtube only hosts legal content? | 08:03 |
| tinwhiskers | A lot of stuff slips through. I really don't want to make a mountain out of a molehill but I'm clearly failing to get my point across. link to clips and whatnot that are relevant to covid but please let's not turn this into a movie sharing thing. If it's not obvious what I mean maybe just don't link to anything. | 08:07 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +6808 cases (now 9.9 million), +73 deaths (now 241026) since 5 hours ago | 08:09 |
| kara[m] | alright i think i see | 08:11 |
| kara[m] | g2g | 08:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: Liverpool's city-wide coronavirus testing begins: Everyone living or working in Liverpool will be offered repeat tests, whether or not they have symptoms. → https://is.gd/UPwsIF | 08:50 |
| gigasu_shida | why are all these countries in eurozone seeing a surge of covid at the same time | 08:57 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +307 cases (now 9.9 million) since an hour ago | 09:24 |
| mniehus[m] | https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/05/operation-moonshot-rapid-covid-test-missed-over-50-of-cases-in-pilot | 09:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: COVID-19 is making tinnitus worse, new study finds: New research reveals that tinnitus, a common condition that causes the perception of noise in the ear and head, is being exacerbated by COVID-19—as well as the measures helping to keep us safe. → https://is.gd/tndv9H | 09:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Italian regions latest to enter lockdown as virus grips Europe: Swathes of Italy return to coronavirus lockdown Friday as the resurgent pandemic continued its march through Europe and reached record levels in the United States. → https://is.gd/6V2DZF | 09:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: US daily Covid-19 cases hit new record, topping 120,000: More than 120,000 coronavirus cases were reported in the US in the past 24 hours, smashing a daily record set the day before, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University. → https://is.gd/qJ1iQu | 10:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Doctors share their ideas on how to get people to pay attention to Covid restrictions → https://is.gd/BvuMbS | 10:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Why Germany's coronavirus strategy doesn't appear to be working this time around: While Germany was lauded for its initial response to the pandemic, another lockdown raises questions over the effectiveness of its strategy second time around. → https://is.gd/olT27v | 10:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Vaccine shows promise against herpes virus: A genetically edited form of a herpes simplex virus—rewired to keep it from taking refuge in the nervous system and eluding an immune response—has outperformed a leading vaccine candidate in a new study from the University of Cincinnati, Northwestern University and the University [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/4pk1vv | 11:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: London shopkeeper admits slitting throats of his children during lockdown → https://is.gd/SiQvVW | 11:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Denmark has found 214 people infected with mink-related coronavirus: State Serum Institute → https://is.gd/DwuCqn | 12:24 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +9409 cases (now 211913), +28 deaths (now 2656) since 15 hours ago | 12:36 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | tinwhiskers: https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany&cumulative=no&miscType=Reff&leftTrim=-30&legacy=no seemst to use bofus values for at least the last datapoint. https://i.imgur.com/tyUocNU.png is nowhere to be found, RKI reports + 21,506 for today, 19.990 (iirc) for yesterday | 12:52 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I.E. RKI reports 21.506 new cases for today (publishing date), those spread over the last few days by reporting date of the particular record | 12:59 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | https://corona.rki.de "Fälle/Tag (Meldung)" lower right chart | 13:05 |
| rpifan | wann soll ich Da(r) benutzen | 13:07 |
| yuriwho | this will be the winter of our discontent | 13:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from ProPublica: He Has a Developmental Disability and Needs a Caretaker. The State Suggested Diapers Instead.: by Amy Silverman for Arizona Daily Star This story has been translated into different formats: Read in plain language English Listen to the original text Read why we translated this story ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/bmW2g7 | 13:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: For doctors who think Trump fumbled the pandemic, the tight election is seen as an insult: Many front-line medical workers expected that the coronavirus would be a top priority for voters, and that Biden would win by a landslide. → https://is.gd/TZ6aF0 | 13:38 |
| iz | no surprise, americans are embarrassingly stupid and racist | 13:41 |
| iz | said as an american myself | 13:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: UK coronavirus infections may be 'stabilising': Although the number of new cases continue to rise, the growth rate is slowing, latest data show. → https://is.gd/npY87c | 13:47 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +10 deaths (now 2666) since an hour ago | 14:06 |
| yuriwho | The Host of this week in Virology tested positive: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lk64Zwcj3W8 | 14:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: North Denmark in lockdown over mutated mink coronavirus fear: More than a quarter million Danes went into lockdown Friday in a northern region of the country where a mutated variation of the coronavirus has infected minks being farmed for their fur, leading to an order to kill millions of the animals. → https://is.gd/ijwKSO | 14:15 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +1107 cases (now 9.9 million), +7 deaths (now 241033) since 5 hours ago | 14:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Study explores why some children exposed to the coronavirus develop inflammatory syndrome: Most children exposed to SARS-CoV-2 have few or no symptoms, but a small number become sick enough to go to the hospital—and a tiny handful develop a severe inflammatory illness called multisystem inflammatory syndrome (MIS-C), often [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/KcUvKB | 14:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Post - November 06 | Questions, images, videos, comments, unconfirmed reports, theories, suggestions → https://is.gd/sLIcht | 15:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: COVID-19 drug and vaccine patents are putting profit before people: Since the birth of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995, most member states have had to abide by the Agreement on Trade Related Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS), which protects patents and copyrights including those applicable to new diagnostics, [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/BUzle5 | 15:10 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +5141 cases (now 9.9 million), +65 deaths (now 241098) since an hour ago — Netherlands: +3932 cases (now 397730), +93 deaths (now 7887) since 8 hours ago | 15:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: STAT+: Pharmalittle: FDA commissioner wins over his critics; wholesalers and J&J close in on opioid settlement: By earning the backing of the Trump administration for a rigorous approval process for a Covid-19 vaccine, the FDA commissioner eased fears the agency was putting politics before science. → https://is.gd/aAbOJo | 15:29 |
| kara[m] | why are all these countries in eurozone seeing a surge of covid at the same time | 15:39 |
| kara[m] | why are all these countries in eurozone seeing a surge of covid at the same time | 15:39 |
| Spec | winter is upon us | 15:40 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | this is still a very good question and the mere ambient temperature by "winter is coming" can't be the (only) explanation, given the very different climate zones from N to S in Europe | 15:43 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | south is warmer minimum in winter than north is maximum in summer | 15:47 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | almost | 15:47 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | also the change in waether/climate/temp isn't THAT much in sync all across Europe | 15:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: WHO concerned over Africa’s health system amid COVID-19 pandemic | 06NOV20 → https://is.gd/xOjHUy | 15:56 |
| ghost_rider[m] | kara: europeans as most of the west fail to understand why China really have done confinement / lockdown. | 15:59 |
| ghost_rider[m] | Countries that are not more than states failed to even close border's. | 16:00 |
| ghost_rider[m] | Vegetable like minds thought they could "have economy" while sars was spreading. | 16:01 |
| ghost_rider[m] | A sense of being the center of the world and mighty powerful that such thing was not serious. | 16:03 |
| ghost_rider[m] | And again, economy over live asset's | 16:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: UK coronavirus infections may be 'stabilising' | 06NOV20 → https://is.gd/2avkAo | 16:05 |
| kara[m] | <ghost_rider[m] "Countries that are not more than"> pardon? | 16:18 |
| kara[m] | sweden = 583.06 deaths / Million | 16:18 |
| kara[m] | usa = 709.15 deaths / Million | 16:18 |
| kara[m] | I think the reason is: | 16:19 |
| kara[m] | ex; americans like "freedom, nobody tells me what to do". Gov tells them what to do. Americans like "no" | 16:19 |
| kara[m] | but if it went: usa gov is like whatevr man, sink or swim. Americans might be like "uhh i'm wearing a mask and not going out much" | 16:19 |
| kara[m] | input? | 16:20 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +3419 cases (now 9.9 million), +14 deaths (now 241112) since an hour ago | 16:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: In parts of Europe, including Belgium, the Netherlands and the U.K., signs continued to emerge suggesting that the second wave of the pandemic might be beginning to plateau → https://is.gd/zkB7lJ | 16:33 |
| ghost_rider[m] | kara: true, if only everyone was able to reason | 16:52 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +37802 cases (now 862681), +446 deaths (now 40638) since 23 hours ago — US: +967 cases (now 9.9 million), +14 deaths (now 241126) since 49 minutes ago — Canada: +373 cases (now 252677), +25 deaths (now 10406) since 9 hours ago | 17:07 |
| IndoAnon | uwaaaaa | 17:09 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Aspirin to be investigated as a possible treatment for COVID-19 in the RECOVERY trial (81 votes) | https://www.recoverytrial.net/news/aspirin-to-be-investigated-as-a-possible-treatment-for-covid-19-in-the-recovery-trial | https://redd.it/jp3wdp | 17:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Patients reported international hydroxychloroquine shortages due to COVID-19: A new study shows that patients with rheumatic diseases across Africa, Southeast Asia, the Americas and Europe had trouble filling their prescriptions of antimalarial drugs, including hydroxychloroquine, during the 2020 global coronavirus pandemic, [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/zbdYFN | 17:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: COVID-19 pandemic creates new causes of 'workplace' stress: The global COVID-19 pandemic has created new causes of job-related stress that have displaced the "traditional" main reason for workplace anxiety—ever-increasing workloads, according to new research. → https://is.gd/vOUWRl | 17:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Many with lupus at high risk for adverse reactions to pneumocystis pneumonia drug: New research shows that adults with systemic lupus erythematosus, who receive trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TMP-SMX), a prophylactic therapy to help prevent pneumocystis pneumonia, are at high risk for adverse reactions to the drug, particularly [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/vgIA3q | 17:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: COVID-19 infection rates low in people with rheumatic diseases, most report mild illness: A new study shows that the COVID-19 infection incidence has been low in people with rheumatic diseases, and most of those infected experience a mild course of illness. Additionally, fatalities have been low among rheumatic disease patients [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/y46JOc | 17:56 |
| rpifan | hm | 17:58 |
| rpifan | interesting | 17:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Telemedicine reduces cancellations for care during COVID in large Ohio heath center: New research presented at ACR Convergence, the American College of Rheumatology's annual meeting, shows that expanded use of telemedicine during the COVID-19 pandemic improved cancelation rates, no-shows and completed medical visits for [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/V1MPfx | 18:04 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +21651 cases (now 1.1 million), +355 deaths (now 48475) since 11 hours ago — US: +7629 cases (now 9.9 million), +64 deaths (now 241190) since an hour ago — Arizona, US: +1996 cases (now 254764), +22 deaths (now 6109) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +797 cases (now 253474), +14 deaths (now 10420) since an hour ago | 18:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: HCQ has no significant impact on heart rhythm in lupus patients, even those with CKD: New research shows that adults with lupus who take the antimalarial drug, hydroxychloroquine, do not have any differences in their corrected QT (QTc) intervals, an electrocardiogram (EKG) measurement of the heart's electrical signals, even if [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/cA2Wyx | 18:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Minority patients with rheumatic diseases have worse COVID-19 outcomes: New research at ACR Convergence, the American College of Rheumatology's annual meeting, reveals that people of color with rheumatic disease have worse health outcomes from COVID-19 infection, are more likely to be hospitalized to treat their coronavirus [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/VS7v3k | 18:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from WebMD: U.S. Sets Another COVID Record; Hospitals Scramble: The United States is nearing the 10 million mark for total cases, with almost 235,000 total coronavirus-related deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University. → https://is.gd/c6OEma | 18:51 |
| LjL | %tr <dk Ældre mand på Midtsjælland smittet med muteret coronavirus | 18:58 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, Peshawar Hindko to English: | 18:58 |
| LjL | ... | 18:58 |
| LjL | %tr <da Ældre mand på Midtsjælland smittet med muteret coronavirus | 18:58 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, Danish to English: Elderly man in Midtsjælland infected with mutated coronavirus (MyMemory, Google) | 18:58 |
| LjL | that's a different area of Denmark than the mink thing was supposed to be confined in | 18:58 |
| Arsanerit | :/ | 18:58 |
| LjL | and they don't know how they got infected | 18:59 |
| LjL | so we may safely assume the mink is indeed out of the bag | 18:59 |
| LjL | he lives in a nursing home | 18:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Preventive health care falls by wayside during pandemic: Americans saw their doctors for preventive and elective care far less often than usual in the first two months of the pandemic shutdown, according to a new study. → https://is.gd/MoaP39 | 19:00 |
| LjL | (from Danish) "If the authorities are still concerned, despite the fact that they have not registered a case since September, and it is no more dangerous than the "ordinary" coronavirus, it is because cluster 5 is more resistant to antibodies." | 19:01 |
| LjL | ... since September?! so they have decided to do all this theater now, ASAP, with army and everything culling the mink... even though they've known this since September? | 19:02 |
| LjL | Når myndighederne alligevel er bekymret, til trods for de ikke har registreret et tilfælde siden september, og den ikke er mere farlig end den "almindelige" coronavirus, er det fordi cluster 5 er mere modstandsdygtig over for antistoffer. | 19:02 |
| LjL | tell me if this means something i don't think it means, but i do think it means what i think it means | 19:02 |
| LjL | yuriwho, ↑ potentially scary since september, apparently | 19:10 |
| dTal | what do you think it means LjL | 19:13 |
| LjL | dTal, i'm very confused. i thought they seemed to be acting extremely boldly and quickly, and... they still are, considering how the culling of these mink is slated to take place. yet they knew about the mutation since september? for now, the only reason i can come up with, except "they're crazy", is that they knew about the mutation but they hadn't realized it was resistant to antibodies yet | 19:14 |
| LjL | although if they knew about the mutation, that means they knew it involved the spike protein... | 19:14 |
| LjL | something's rotten in denmark | 19:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): U.S. reports second-highest daily number of Covid cases on Election Day as scientists warn of a dangerous winter → https://is.gd/Elen3g | 19:16 |
| LjL | dTal, some reddit comments are saying this mutation is not awful news just yet, but the ability to transmit and mutate so readily in mink means mink are dangerous and should be culled | 19:25 |
| LjL | it's just reddit comments but i guess that sounds like a possible explanation | 19:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: For doctors who think Trump fumbled the pandemic, the tight election is seen as an insult: Many front-line medical workers expected that the coronavirus would be a top priority for voters, and that Biden would win by a landslide. → https://is.gd/TZ6aF0 | 19:26 |
| dTal | yes | 19:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from "Cluster 5" on Wikipedia: Ipigott: sp: sp ← Previous revision Revision as of 18:46, 6 November 2020 Line 11: Line 11: As a preventative measure, Frederiksen announced that the country was already in the process of [[Animal slaughter|slaughtering]] all mink in Denmark—as many as 17 million. {{Cite news|date=2020-11-04|title=Denmark to cull [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/74bzDF | 19:53 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: ZDF babbles of R_eff=0.78 or somesuch. I really wonder where from they got this. I don't see this in any semi-steady numbers older than 2 days | 19:57 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I see a declining R_eff that may reach 1 soon, but 0.7x? no way | 19:59 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | prolly some weird nowcasting srtifact? | 19:59 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | artifact even | 20:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: Queues as Liverpool's city-wide coronavirus testing begins: Everyone living or working in Liverpool will be offered repeat tests, whether or not they have symptoms. → https://is.gd/UPwsIF | 20:02 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +36792 cases (now 1.7 million), +828 deaths (now 39865) since 12 hours ago — US: +14668 cases (now 10.0 million), +138 deaths (now 241356) since an hour ago | 20:09 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, i am highly skeptical about Reff derived from most recent incidence like there are always edge effects and it always declines at the edge | 20:20 |
| de-facto | also i am against giving people false hopes, we need to put in all the effort available to bring incidence down | 20:20 |
| de-facto | and we got a new record of 21506 cases today | 20:21 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Reopening schools causes coronavirus R rate to surge, study finds (10015 votes) | https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/coronavirus-r-rate-school-closures-lockdown-lancet-study-b1251617.html | https://redd.it/jp4we7 | 20:23 |
| de-facto | ^^ there thats what i am saying the whole time | 20:24 |
| ghost_rider[m] | Portugal also beating new records, state of emergency passed, late republic yada guy will do yada | 20:24 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +7097 cases (now 10.0 million), +51 deaths (now 241407) since 20 minutes ago | 20:24 |
| de-facto | "Reopening schools was associated with a 24-per-cent increase in R after 28 days, although the researchers cautioned they were unable to account for different precautions some countries implemented for reopening schools, such as limiting class sizes, social distancing, cleaning, personal hygiene, face masks, and temperature checks." | 20:25 |
| de-facto | ooops | 20:25 |
| ghost_rider[m] | Nothing new, just not a general lockdown, army called for tracing and testing, forced temp and test in loads of area's | 20:25 |
| de-facto | %title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30785-4/fulltext | 20:25 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.thelancet.com: The temporal association of introducing and lifting non-pharmaceutical interventions with the time-varying reproduction number (R) of SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study across 131 countries - The Lancet [...] | 20:25 |
| de-facto | %title https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.05732 | 20:32 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From arxiv.org: [2009.05732] The challenges of containing SARS-CoV-2 via test-trace-and-isolate | 20:32 |
| de-facto | "Without a cure, vaccine, or proven long-term immunity against SARS-CoV-2, test-trace-and-isolate (TTI) strategies present a promising tool to contain the viral spread. For any TTI strategy, however, a major challenge arises from pre- and asymptomatic transmission as well as TTI-avoiders, which contribute to hidden, unnoticed infection chains." | 20:32 |
| de-facto | "In our semi-analytical model, we identified two distinct tipping points between controlled and uncontrolled spreading: one, at which the behavior-driven reproduction number of the hidden infections becomes too large to be compensated by the available TTI capabilities, and one at which the number of new infections starts to exceed the tracing capacity, causing a self-accelerating spread." | 20:33 |
| de-facto | "We investigated how these tipping points depend on realistic limitations like limited cooperativity, missing contacts, and imperfect isolation, finding that TTI is likely not sufficient to contain the natural spread of SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, complementary measures like reduced physical contacts and improved hygiene probably remain necessary." | 20:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from WebMD: Some COVID Patients See Faster Recovery, More Immunity: Certain COVID-19 patients not only recover faster from the coronavirus, but their bodies also show longer-lasting immunity, according to a new study. → https://is.gd/UXA5v5 | 20:39 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +9586 cases (now 10.0 million), +69 deaths (now 241476) since 20 minutes ago — Canada: +244 cases (now 253718), +5 deaths (now 10425) since 2 hours ago | 20:39 |
| genera | tipping point hab ich irgendwo gehört. ist das eine deutsche Studie? | 20:39 |
| de-facto | ja aus Göttingen | 20:40 |
| de-facto | Was mentioned in the Drosten Podcast | 20:40 |
| genera | the Drosten podcast without Drosten.. | 20:40 |
| de-facto | yep | 20:40 |
| de-facto | it could acutally explain the weird exploding exponential thresholds for incidence we were talking about several times | 20:41 |
| de-facto | Viola Priesemann Group are very competent people | 20:42 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: COVID-19 is making tinnitus worse - new study (80 votes) | https://aru.ac.uk/news/covid-19-is-making-tinnitus-worse-new-study | https://redd.it/jp7d9n | 20:43 |
| de-facto | LjL, might find that interesting, i think we talked about this a few times | 20:44 |
| LjL-Matrix | Ugh tinnitus | 20:49 |
| LjL-Matrix | Just what I needed to read | 20:50 |
| de-facto | no i meant this paper about tipping points in incidence | 20:54 |
| de-facto | %title https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.05732 | 20:54 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From arxiv.org: [2009.05732] The challenges of containing SARS-CoV-2 via test-trace-and-isolate | 20:54 |
| de-facto | "In our semi-analytical model, we identified two distinct tipping points between controlled and uncontrolled spreading: one, at which the behavior-driven reproduction number of the hidden infections becomes too large to be compensated by the available TTI capabilities, and one at which the number of new infections starts to exceed the tracing capacity, causing a self-accelerating spread." | 20:55 |
| LjL | yeah i know but the tinnitus study is actually pretty large and the biggest fear of anyone with tinnitus is it getting worse | 20:56 |
| de-facto | yes of course | 20:57 |
| LjL | de-facto, my brain kinda shuts down on maths honestly. but my personal feeling is that the spikes we're witnessing can't merely be due to testing and tracing abilities being exceeded | 21:00 |
| LjL | today i talked to someone who works in a hospital here, she said when she checked out the ER there were 70 people waiting with 5 code reds | 21:00 |
| LjL | which she says is a lot, and i believe that, especially after seeing the spike in calls to 118 in lombardy | 21:01 |
| LjL | i just think of how much worse this will be in december-february and i kinda lose any willingness to witness it all | 21:01 |
| LjL | (witness if i'm lucky, experience if i'm not) | 21:01 |
| de-facto | well current situation just demonstrates that we need to implement harsh containment and we started with the lockdowns. How much effect they will have we will see in 14-21 days, my guess would be that we need more measures but also that they are accepted by the people | 21:03 |
| de-facto | the demand for treatment in hospitals is delayed even further though, at least another additional 10-14 days or such | 21:04 |
| de-facto | my hope is that now with testing and tracing capacity exceeded our non-pharmaceutical measures work against the "raw" onslaught of incidence so hopefully we wont see any further tipping points | 21:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from Scientific American: Health: Coronavirus News Roundup, October 31-November 6 → https://is.gd/mCitPW | 21:07 |
| de-facto | and schools are still open, so maybe when they are going to be closed at some point their contribution to incidence also vanishes | 21:08 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +20848 cases (now 10.0 million), +161 deaths (now 241637) since 37 minutes ago | 21:09 |
| LjL | de-facto, i haven't gone out but the contacts i have who did reported that most shops are still open and that there's just about the same amount of people in the streets as before, the only visible difference being no one seated at tables | 21:12 |
| LjL | %title https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-germany-braces-for-violent-anti-lockdown-protests/a-55513848 | 21:13 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: From www.dw.com: Coronavirus: Germany braces for violent anti-lockdown protests | Germany| News and in-depth reporting from Berlin and beyond | DW | 06.11.2020 | 21:13 |
| de-facto | OMG those retarded Covidiots, absolutely embarrasing that such people even exist | 21:14 |
| de-facto | Those asocial mentally challenged reckless saboteurs of containment and democratic freedom are among the worst citizens, absolutely embarrassing, still unfortunately we sit in the same boat with them too, so they have to be integrated into an effective containment strategy | 21:20 |
| de-facto | Fortunately they are the embarrasing minority, most Germans are strictly against such people | 21:21 |
| de-facto | i cant even find the words to express how furiously angry i get about such people, but ranting about them also does not help | 21:24 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +9103 cases (now 10.0 million), +143 deaths (now 241780) since 23 minutes ago | 21:24 |
| rpifan | well | 21:28 |
| rpifan | most germans are lazy | 21:28 |
| blkshp | Take it from this one, he knows! | 21:29 |
| rpifan | oh blkshp how r u | 21:29 |
| blkshp | Nice to see you said "are", you're slipping. | 21:29 |
| rpifan | i see you got covid | 21:29 |
| rpifan | i hope you are doing well | 21:29 |
| blkshp | I did not. | 21:29 |
| de-facto | please guys behave | 21:29 |
| blkshp | I think we're past the unpleasentness onto just sarcasm now, right rpifan? | 21:30 |
| LjL | get a room | 21:31 |
| blkshp | or a channel :P | 21:31 |
| rpifan | well its blkshp not me | 21:32 |
| rpifan | im just complaining about germans | 21:32 |
| rpifan | and why merkel hasnt done a proper lockdown | 21:33 |
| de-facto | we all are frustrated about current developments, thats why its important to emphasize cohesion and solidarity | 21:34 |
| de-facto | even with querdenkers or other edge groups, we all sit in one boat with this, hence we have to work together to prevent it from sinking | 21:35 |
| rpifan | well | 21:36 |
| rpifan | i want a heavier lockdown | 21:36 |
| rpifan | total closure of everything | 21:36 |
| rpifan | like we had at first | 21:36 |
| rpifan | its the only real solution | 21:36 |
| rpifan | this partial thing is like patching a huge hole with a bit of bubble gum | 21:37 |
| rpifan | sure it will work | 21:37 |
| rpifan | but it wont stop it and sooner or later the pressure will explode again | 21:37 |
| de-facto | yes i agree with you about that, but many people dont agree with that yet | 21:37 |
| rpifan | actually i spoke to someone who was against this whole thing | 21:38 |
| rpifan | maybe he was a querdenker or not | 21:38 |
| rpifan | but we chatted and eventually i convinced him | 21:38 |
| rpifan | that we need more lockdown not less | 21:38 |
| de-facto | i also think we will discover that current containment efforts are insufficient to control it and that we are wasting precious time, hence its good they will re-evaluate effectiveness at 2020-11-16 | 21:38 |
| rpifan | ah | 21:39 |
| rpifan | i suspect we'll go stright thru next year | 21:39 |
| de-facto | well if incidence did not come down, why would we lift containment? | 21:39 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +5303 cases (now 10.0 million), +24 deaths (now 241804) since 21 minutes ago | 21:40 |
| de-facto | ICU beds are filling with exponential rate and patients may stay there for 2-3 weeks | 21:40 |
| de-facto | i dont see they will be able to lift lockdown at the end of Nov | 21:40 |
| de-facto | basically we are just buying time, so we need to use it to raise capacity e.g. in testing, tracing, treating etc pp | 21:41 |
| de-facto | I mena just look at https://www.intensivregister.de/#/intensivregister choosing tab "Zeitreihen" | 21:43 |
| de-facto | we are almost as full as in the first wave and no sign of reaching any peak yet | 21:43 |
| de-facto | its like an exponential exposion of very severely ill COVID-19 cases and we have the second oldest population in the world | 21:44 |
| de-facto | i really can not understand how such developments can be ignored by QUerdenkers and that they think they can solve it with a protest, that shows how limited their mental capacity seems to be | 21:46 |
| de-facto | they even deny that there is a virus make stupid statements about testing etc | 21:46 |
| de-facto | they follow their "leaders" statements obviously without being able to comprehend the information or to ask about their validity | 21:48 |
| de-facto | actually this is very sad :( | 21:51 |
| rpifan | de-facto, well i also planned to meet my mom in morroc | 21:54 |
| rpifan | i have tickets and such for december | 21:54 |
| rpifan | but if i have to stay home | 21:54 |
| rpifan | due to lockdwon | 21:54 |
| rpifan | then so be it | 21:54 |
| rpifan | im fine with sacrifice | 21:54 |
| rpifan | what they need to do tho is to assure ppl cant get fired from work | 21:54 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +2983 cases (now 10.0 million), +35 deaths (now 241839) since 21 minutes ago | 21:55 |
| de-facto | the thing is that the cause of the pandemic is the infection and that happens distributed with the attitude and behavior of the people, so only if all work together we will be able to control it | 21:56 |
| de-facto | that is why everything polarizig and dividing cohesion works in the favor of the virus | 21:56 |
| rpifan | so my work told me they would fire me in march | 21:58 |
| rpifan | so i applied for schwerbehindert a few weeks ago | 21:58 |
| rpifan | im told i do qualify | 21:58 |
| rpifan | so hopeully ill get it approve before march | 21:58 |
| rpifan | then they cant fire me | 21:58 |
| rpifan | after may i can be a peramant resident | 21:58 |
| de-facto | oh ok well good luck | 22:00 |
| de-facto | i dont know anything about such things | 22:01 |
| rpifan | yea | 22:01 |
| rpifan | legal mess | 22:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from PLOS ONE: Serological prevalence of toxoplasmosis in pregnant women in Luanda (Angola): Geospatial distribution and its association with socio-demographic and clinical-obstetric determinants: by Amélia Nkutxi Vueba, Clarissa Perez Faria, Ricardo Almendra, Paula Santana, Maria do Céu Sousa We report a study on toxoplasmosis in pregnant women [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/ODYrKf | 22:03 |
| de-facto | oh last week there was an outbreak in the school class of the daughter of my work colleague, she got tested last Monday and the negative result became available..... today evening 4 days later | 22:04 |
| de-facto | so that is too slow in my opinion, it seems testing capacity is exceeded already, we need more labs and supply chain capacity | 22:05 |
| de-facto | RKI changed testing criteria to prioritize symptomatic cases etc | 22:06 |
| de-facto | so future incidence numbers for Germany may not tell the real prevalence anymore | 22:06 |
| de-facto | since it increases faster than testing capacity | 22:06 |
| de-facto | well testing never told real prevalence but what i mean is that real increase will be faster than what is seen by testing | 22:07 |
| de-facto | https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Nov_2020/2020-11-04-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile | 22:13 |
| de-facto | week 44: 1 567 083 tests with 113 822 positive hence 7.26% | 22:14 |
| de-facto | data also available at https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Testzahlen-gesamt.xlsx?__blob=publicationFile | 22:16 |
| de-facto | ~100k samples are on queue, thats unacceptable | 22:17 |
| de-facto | ~230k tests per day are just not enough capacity, we need more than 500k or even 1.5M if we want to get in 1% positive rate range again | 22:19 |
| de-facto | so we need 7x more testing capacity and 3.5x more tracing capacity in Germany | 22:21 |
| de-facto | if the assumption that a daily incidence of ~6k (weekly 50/100k) and testing positive rate of ~1% means it may be controllable holds | 22:22 |
| Arsanerit | My employer sent asked me if I wanted to be seconded to the Gesundheitsamt for between 6 weeks and 3 months | 22:30 |
| LjL | https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30785-4/fulltext | 22:33 |
| LjL | %title | 22:33 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: From www.thelancet.com: The temporal association of introducing and lifting non-pharmaceutical interventions with the time-varying reproduction number (R) of SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study across 131 countries - The Lancet [...] | 22:33 |
| LjL | this says that only banning of public events and then lifting that ban, as well as reopening schools, were significantly associated with R | 22:34 |
| LjL | other interventions were associated with a modest reduction in R that didn't reach significancy | 22:34 |
| LjL | i think it's easy to focus on schools when seeing these results, but i also think they also suggest that all these things only work together | 22:35 |
| Arsanerit | other things such as museums, restaurants, sports? | 22:38 |
| LjL | no, they looked at "school closure, workplace closure, public events ban, requirements to stay at home, and internal movement limits" | 22:40 |
| LjL | and "bans on public gatherings of more than ten people" | 22:40 |
| de-facto | yeah no county did implement only one containment measure without all the others, they work together, but maybe some did discard some measures in their concepts that other countries did not | 22:45 |
| de-facto | also they did include many countries so that may average out some properties that are characteristic to only one country | 22:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: FDA authorizes first test that screens for Covid neutralizing antibodies: "The ability to detect neutralizing antibodies can help us gain additional insight into what the existence of antibodies may mean for patients as we continue the fight against COVID-19," Dr. Tim Stenzel of the FDA said in a statement. → https://is.gd/9h2Zua | 23:08 |
| de-facto | i think this is a very important paper, i wish there was mandatory briefing for politicians about such papers | 23:11 |
| LjL | de-facto, i don't know, i think a politician could interpret it as "meh, everything has very little impact, let's just not do these things" | 23:15 |
| de-facto | thats why i said briefing, experts should explain it to them | 23:16 |
| de-facto | politicians cant be experts on everything, but they can employ experts on everything | 23:16 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Spain: +22516 cases (now 1.4 million), +347 deaths (now 38833) since a day ago — US: +9551 cases (now 10.0 million), +75 deaths (now 241914) since an hour ago — Canada: +72 cases (now 253790), +2 deaths (now 10427) since 2 hours ago | 23:20 |
| mniehus[m] | https://covid19estamoson.gov.pt/ | 23:36 |
| de-facto | https://esriportugal.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/acf023da9a0b4f9dbb2332c13f635829 | 23:42 |
| de-facto | very nice dashboard for Portugal, even with incidence, testing, hospitalizations and demographics | 23:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: Delaware's mask mandate, stay-at-home order suppressed coronavirus transmission, CDC study finds: A new CDC study found Delaware's stay-at-home order and face mask mandate substantially reduced coronavirus infections, hospitalizations and deaths. → https://is.gd/iZ330o | 23:53 |
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