libera/##covid-19/ Wednesday, 2020-11-18

BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +16206 cases (now 833732), +357 deaths (now 13248) since 18 hours ago — Sweden: +15084 cases (now 192439), +61 deaths (now 6225) since 4 days ago — Iran: +13352 cases (now 788473), +482 deaths (now 42461) since 18 hours ago — Jordan: +6454 cases (now 155993), +66 deaths (now 1909) since 18 hours ago00:24
LjLtinwhiskers: is everything updating at midnight now or something? Or is it my bot that only picked everything up now for some reason?00:28
LjLItaly has 731 deaths, it didn't show it because there were all those other countries with record numbers but it really is many... A jump from 550 or so00:30
tinwhiskersI haven't changed anything, but maybe something upstream has changed?00:38
de-factoyeah fatalities are raising everywhere in EU, not so good but to be expected from the incidence raise00:39
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: American Airlines and British Airways are latest to offer preflight Covid tests to passengers: American Airlines, British Airways and their alliance partner Oneworld announced a Covid-19 testing trial in an effort to spur international travel. → https://is.gd/XMJ5G900:47
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: Dr. Fauci says US needs a national response to COVID-19 crisis, instead of ‘disjointed’ state-by-state approach (10088 votes) | https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/11/17/nation/dr-fauci-says-us-needs-national-response-covid-19-crisis-instead-disjointed-state-by-state-approach/ | https://redd.it/jvyivu01:12
ryoumai can imagine fatalities rising rapidly once hospitals are completely overwhelmed -- from non-covid also01:13
ryoumaalso accumulated problems of health maintenance not occurring01:14
ryoumaand needed health procedures01:14
de-factomakes sense :(01:14
LjLYes, they gave us some numbers on missed cancer screenings and the like...01:18
de-factoUS needs a change in strategy 01:18
LjLIf only they had like a new president. Oh, like, one who could actually legally... preside01:19
ryoumaidk what the possible things the us gov can do.  nationalize the national guard / state militia, mandate govs to act (no?), withhold highway stuff like they did with speed limits, or provide moral leadership.01:20
LjLryouma: sometimes it almost seems like the EU has more power over its members states while not actually being a country than the US does while being one01:21
LjLJust sometimes, mind01:21
ryoumaidk01:22
ryoumaif i were the guy entering in jan 20, i would spend all of my political capital and pull in all the favors.  i wouldn't care about second term.  i wouldn't kowtow too much to the legislators who will try to oppose everything but maybe make deals.  idk them, but not enciting the gun-toting homer simpsons would have to be part of the deals.  i would start right now.  that is perhaps occurring.  fortunately, jan 20 guy01:24
ryouma has connections and experience.  but NOW, not after jan 20.01:24
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Effect of Vitamin D3 Supplementation vs Placebo on Hospital Length of Stay in Patients with Severe COVID-19: A Multicenter, Double-blind, Randomized Controlled Trial. (80 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.16.20232397v1 | https://redd.it/jvxosp01:25
ryoumacomment "There's never been evidence that supplementing vitamin D apart from doing it the natural way, through exposure to sunlight, helps actual health outcomes? If popping pills or whatever for vitamin D was the answer, why hasn't that already cured many more health problems?"01:27
ryoumarickets?01:27
ryoumaso therte is non-correlative (i.e. predictive i guess) evidence for sunlight?01:29
de-factohmm D3 study in sunny Brazil?01:33
de-factowhy dont they do it in Iceland or Finland?01:34
ryoumaor for housebound...01:34
de-factoor Siberia or any other place with suspected deficiency of D3 due to not enough sunlight exposure?01:35
de-factowill the states in US do their own lockdowns even when Trump will do nothing?01:44
joerg_rwaah, moin01:47
ryoumaa few are doing extremely wimpy things that are being attacked and homer simpsons incited to rise up01:47
ryoumafor health reasons i don't follow politics but if you want to learn the depth of american politics look up pizzagate01:49
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Bill Gates worries about a ‘dysfunctional’ approach to Covid-19 vaccine distribution: Gates is troubled by the logistics of vaccine distribution, which he said has been left to states to manage without adequate federal guidance to lead the way. → https://is.gd/l8zNGi02:12
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: Singapore biotech firm hopes for 'widespread' release of new Covid-19 treatment by early 2021: A new Covid-19 treatment could become available in Singapore and beyond by early-2021 as biotech company Hummingbird Bioscience trials its experimental therapy. → https://is.gd/lHvQni02:25
ryoumainciting*02:26
LjLjoerg_rw, moin, are you the read AND write version of doc02:39
LjL(yes i can see it's your name :P)02:39
de-facto%title https://imgur.com/a/3fiPDTl  https://i.imgur.com/C34w8Xa.png source https://www.intensivregister.de/#/intensivregister Tab "Zeitreihen"02:42
Brainstormde-facto: From imgur.com: COVID-19 Germany: Daily change in ICUs and reproduction - Album on Imgur02:42
de-facto%title https://imgur.com/a/RblQywA https://i.imgur.com/0OzdNYi.png source https://www.intensivregister.de/#/intensivregister Tab "Zeitreihen"02:43
Brainstormde-facto: From imgur.com: COVID-19 Germany Daily change in occupied ICUs - Album on Imgur02:43
de-factoDocScrutinizer05, joerg_rw ^^02:43
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: People will be allowed to work from home about half the time after Covid passes, CEO says: Oliver Steil said feedback from customers indicates that companies will let staff spend half their time working from home after the coronavirus pandemic passes. → https://is.gd/tLYcZY02:49
joerg_rwnice03:00
LjLde-facto, i've found two not-great-but-interesting things about ICU in Italy03:06
LjLde-facto, https://www.infodata.ilsole24ore.com/2020/10/15/terapie-intensive-scopri-in-tempo-reale-quanti-posti-sono-occupati/ (same website as the data i often link to) gives the percentage occupied per region, but it doesn't really get into details of "percentage of what" (there is much confusion on which ICU beds are ready, which can be "laid out as needed", which have doctors/nurses available for them...)03:07
LjLand then there is this official government graph https://www.agenas.gov.it/covid19/web/index.php?r=site%2Fgraph3 which AIUI says nothing about occupation, it simply states how many ICU per resident each region has, divided into the ones that have been pre-allocated for COVID and the ones that aren't03:08
LjLdisappointingly Lombardy is *below* the national average :\03:08
LjLeven after all these supposed improvements03:08
ryoumawhy are there not mobile icu trucks03:09
LjLi have the feeling there are some people who should go to jail, but i honestly can't even make sense of who it should be03:09
LjLryouma, those are called "ambulances" :P they are literally being used as patient beds in some places where hospitals are no longer accepting new patients03:09
LjLryouma, but i understand what you mean... in italy, the thing is there's a lot of rigidity about the whole system, because healthcare is basically managed on a regional basis, so, last spring, they even had trouble moving patients to other regions when Lombardy was full... i don't think it was because of physical difficulty moving them (maybe partly also), but bureaucracy, and the regions not wanting to take them03:11
LjLso if you make mobile units, with a system like italy's, you still have the problem "who wants them?"03:11
LjLwho manages them, who owns them03:11
LjLit has to be a region, not the central government03:11
LjLi hope this silliness gets reversed at least partly03:11
de-factonice03:11
LjLit's clearly showing it's not working well. it started in the early 2000, before that time, healthcare was on a national basis03:12
de-factoso the first graph is percent with those lines at 30 and 100?03:12
LjLde-facto, yeah03:12
LjLde-facto, but, percent of COVID-reserved ICUs? all ICUs? not very clear03:12
LjLde-facto, one could say "hey if you have free ICUs, put COVID patients in them, whether or not they are dedicated to COVID!" but it's not so easy since you risk infecting with COVID patients that are in ICU for other reasons03:13
de-factosurprisingly low percentage03:13
LjLde-facto, except guess where ;(03:13
de-factoLombardia?03:13
LjLyeppers03:14
LjLthe other regions that are close to Lombardy are very small03:14
LjLbut they do have an issue03:14
LjLit's strange because they are pretty wealthy regions03:14
LjLbut i've noticed this with places like small states too... they have a very high prevalence of COVID, often03:15
LjL(unless they are Tonga and have none!)03:15
de-factoi am curious about the time development of those occupied beds, because it may allow extrapolations03:15
LjLhmm, good point03:15
LjLlet me see if maybe the government's github has csv data on this03:16
de-factoi mean if the daily new patients in need for ICU beds are approximately the same as the daily recovered from ICU those occupied beds should stay more or less the same03:16
de-factothats why i looked at the daily change for germany, e.g. change = icu(date) - icu(date - 1 day)03:17
LjLunrelated but interesting: https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/blob/master/dati-contratti-dpc-forniture/dpc-covid19-dati-contratti-dpc-forniture.csv has all the contracts that have been made for PPEs and such, including amounts03:18
LjLde-facto, no, the occupied ICUs are going up, i know that much03:18
LjLi don't know by how much and i don't have a graph (for now), but they are going up03:19
de-factothis should be monitored very closely since thats where the problem should be avoided (even if they are behind incidence by maybe 10-14 days)03:20
de-factohmm maybe even less time03:22
LjLde-facto, well, https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/blob/master/dati-regioni/dpc-covid19-ita-regioni-latest.csv has the number of patients currently in ICU, and the same file is available for every past date, so it's a bit of a chore but they can all be downloaded and a graph built from the terapia_intensiva column. but i've found nowhere that lists, in time, how many ICUs are *available* to be used03:22
de-factonice what about the last one https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/blob/master/dati-regioni/dpc-covid19-ita-regioni.csv03:24
de-factodoes that include all dates and a column of occupied icus?03:25
LjLde-facto, oh, whoops, yes :P03:26
LjLi guess that's the "time series" one03:26
LjLthey could have written TIME SERIES03:26
LjLand then i would have known!03:26
de-factodate, state, code_region, denomination_regione, lat, long, hospitalized_with_symptoms, intensive_ therapy, total_hospitalized, isolation_domicile, total_positive, variation_total_positive, new_positive, discharged_healed, deceased, cases_with_suspect_diagnosis, cases_tested_cases, total_cases03:26
de-factothose seem to be the columns translated to english03:26
LjLyes, that looks accurate03:27
LjLintensive_therapy is ICU03:27
LjLisolation_domicile sounds weird but it's just those left isolating at home03:27
LjLdischarged_healed, if only they were really healed... but anyway, "recovered and discharged from hospital"03:27
de-factoso hmm lets importat that into an SQL to add up all the regions for each date or such03:28
LjLit may be useful to keep the regions separate03:28
LjLmulti-colored graph03:28
LjLlooks like i don't know how to use a spreadsheet03:31
de-factohmm this will take some time03:33
joerg_rw>><ryouma> why are there not mobile icu trucks<< maybe its just more practical to have those in tents or sport halls than in trucks. Being mounted on a truck doesnt seem to have any adavantages03:34
ryoumai amend my comment03:34
LjLde-facto, i thought it would be relatively trivial to use the denominazione_regione rows as a legend for the data, but apparently spreadsheets only like legends as column headings03:37
LjLde-facto, this is the best i seem to be able to obtain, lol https://pic.infini.fr/CdFJwqJv/4UHoJnB5.png03:42
LjLit still gives some idea i guess03:42
LjLthe "sawtooth" appearance is because i'm not summing anything, each data point is a different region03:42
LjLobviously the one that tops the graph is Lombardy03:42
LjLso at least we can see we aren't yet at the point we reached in spring03:43
de-factoheh that looks pretty good already03:43
BrainstormUpdates for Idaho, US: +1781 cases (now 85125), +35 deaths (now 798) since 21 hours ago — US: +157654 cases (now 11.7 million), +1604 deaths (now 254255) since 21 hours ago — France: +59172 cases (now 2.1 million) since 21 hours ago — Uruguay: +104 cases (now 4208), +1 deaths (now 68) since 21 hours ago03:43
de-factomaybe use lines03:43
LjLthat *is* a lines graph :P03:43
de-factoi have the data in SQLite now i need to make the correct query03:44
LjLit goes up and down and looks like it's dense03:44
LjLbut that's just because it's covering every region, and then doing it again, for every date03:44
de-factooh03:44
LjLit's crap but it does give a general idea of how things stand in comparison to spring03:45
ryoumai do hope that advisors are not making any basic data errors03:47
ryoumalike that econ paper03:47
de-factowhich are the columns of interest?03:48
LjLde-facto, well, "data" for the timestamp, "denominazione_regione" for which region it's about (each timestamp has each region listed), and "terapia_intensiva" for the occupied ICUs in that region03:51
LjLand then you may also be interested in hospitalization etc but i guess look at ICU first03:51
LjL"ricoverati_con_sintomi" is people hospitalized *not* in ICU03:51
LjL"totale_ospedalizzati" is everyone who is hospitalized03:51
LjLso, the one + the other03:51
de-factoid use codice_regione for simplicity03:54
de-facto22 states right?03:54
de-facto%title https://imgur.com/a/rspjAYB https://i.imgur.com/251BY2Z.png source https://raw.githubusercontent.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/master/dati-regioni/dpc-covid19-ita-regioni.csv04:09
Brainstormde-facto: From imgur.com: COVID-19 Italy: Occupied ICU beds by state ID - Album on Imgur04:09
de-factoLjL, ^^04:09
LjLnice, thanks04:10
LjLItaly as a whole is... pretty close to spring04:10
LjLbut apparently Lombardy not so much yet04:10
de-factoif you want i can give you the sql import script so you can play around with all the columns and queries04:11
LjLde-facto, well, i don't really know what to use to make graphs from sqlite data04:12
de-factotsv output04:12
LjLoh so you manipulate it in sqlite and then output tsv to use in a spreadsheet?04:13
LjLi'd probably use python to go from csv to csv directly, i'm not best friends with sql, but maybe it's worth getting a reminder course04:14
de-factoLjL, here you go https://paste.gg/p/anonymous/0461db81ebe94a60a2b4d22c126996b004:14
de-factoyes SQLite is quite good for querying04:14
de-factoespecialy sqlitebrowser04:15
de-factothen output to tsv and graph from that with your favorite graphing tool04:15
de-factoe.g. gnuplot, matplotlib etc04:15
LjLthat's quite the sql-bash mixture!04:15
de-factoyou can run it as cronjob it got a caching functionality in the data subfolder04:15
LjLi see you had to do a bit of work with the timestamps04:16
de-factoyeah and also did not care about other interesting columns but that pattern should be the same, so the tsv is purely generated by the output of the sqlite query04:16
LjLi might get a webpage up with it04:16
LjLright04:17
de-factothats behind my webpage :)04:17
de-factoi run it as systemd timer once a day04:17
LjLdo you have a webpage with similar graphs for germany or other places?04:17
LjLit may be worth listing in the links04:18
de-factoi run plotly.js on the tsv output04:18
de-factofor germany but i am shy about sharing it yet :D04:18
LjLalright04:18
de-facto%title https://imgur.com/a/Bsb5V8D  https://i.imgur.com/6CfaSRO.png source https://raw.githubusercontent.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/master/dati-regioni/dpc-covid19-ita-regioni.csv04:37
Brainstormde-facto: From imgur.com: COVID-19 Italy: Daily change in occupied ICU beds - Album on Imgur04:37
de-factoLjL, ^^ what do you think about this?04:37
LjLde-facto, it seems like... goodish news? but i don't understand the yellow line04:39
LjL(do we need more evidence that lockdowns work?)04:41
de-factoso change = icus_occupied(date) - icus_occupied(date - 1day) and the yellow line is reproduction = 100 * (change(date - 0) + change(date - 1) + change(date - 2) + change(date - 4)) / (change(date - 5) + change(date - 6) + change(date - 7) + change(date - 8))04:41
de-facto100 * reproduction similar to the one for new cases incidence for a serial interval of 4 days04:42
de-factounless that tail effect is some reporting delay or such04:42
de-factothe change is the time derivative of total ICU occupied by COVID-19 patients04:43
de-factoso if that change plateaus or even transitions to a decline in increase it would be really good news indeed. if it crosses zero ICU beds are constant (same amount of new cases requiring ICU as the sum of recoveries and fatalities)04:44
de-factoif that change eventually becomes negative the total number of ICU beds declines meaning the situation is under control04:45
de-factothat can be seen after the first wave04:45
de-factosame for reproduction if it is below 100 its a decline in change of total ICU beds, if its above 100 its an increase04:46
de-facto(I just multiplied by 100 to make it visible on the same axis)04:47
de-factoso it kinda sorta looks like the increase in daily occupied ICU beds may have plateaued since November, meaning the exponential raise in total ICU beds became somewhat linear during November04:48
de-facto(the blue line in the first graph of total ICU beds for Italy being a straight line or even below a straight line instead of an exponential increase)04:49
metreo.cases canada04:56
BrainstormUpdates for Belgium: +2734 cases (now 540605), +223 deaths (now 14839) since 22 hours ago04:56
Brainstormmetreo: In Canada, there have been 307604 confirmed cases (0.8% of the population) and 11086 deaths (3.6% of cases) as of an hour ago. 10.5 million tests were performed (2.9% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.0% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 4.3% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Canada for time series data.04:56
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Tokyo to raise coronavirus alert level to highest of 4 levels: report → https://is.gd/eUZhYZ05:02
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: South Australia announces 6-day state-wide lockdown to stifle new outbreak → https://is.gd/ONzbu705:14
de-facto%cases Germany05:19
Brainstormde-facto: In Germany, there have been 833732 confirmed cases (1.0% of the population) and 13248 deaths (1.6% of cases) as of 4 hours ago. 25.0 million tests were performed (3.3% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.5% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 2.4% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data.05:19
de-factoRKI Germany: Infections +17 561 (833 307 total), Fatalities +305 (13 119 total)05:20
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Authorizes First COVID-19 Test for Self-Testing at Home (88 votes) | https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-authorizes-first-covid-19-test-self-testing-home | https://redd.it/jw8a3y05:37
de-factooh WOW05:44
de-factoself testing at home that sounds promising05:44
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: FDA approves emergency use for first at-home Covid-19 test kit: The nasal swab test, which is eligible for use by patients aged 14 and over suspected of having the disease, can provide results within 30 minutes. → https://is.gd/YkRJdU06:14
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: China’s irritated trade partners push back on coronavirus food tests → https://is.gd/zp0NMU07:39
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: People will be allowed to work from home about half the time after Covid passes, CEO says: Oliver Steil said feedback from customers indicates that companies will let staff spend half their time working from home after the coronavirus pandemic passes. → https://is.gd/tLYcZY07:51
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: US FDA authorizes first COVID-19 test for self-testing at home → https://is.gd/tMST7m09:04
BrainstormNew from WHO Euro: Preventing the COVID-19 pandemic from causing an antibiotic resistance catastrophe: According to research conducted by WHO/Europe and reports from the field, the European Region now risks accelerated spread of antimicrobial resistance. The long-term problem of antibiotics being used inappropriately by individuals and in health care [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/ZNEAB009:16
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Joe Biden’s coronavirus advisers warn on stalled transition, Donald Trump pushes legal challenges → https://is.gd/lIrWyC09:41
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Chinese COVID vaccine candidate based on inactivated virus appears safe, induces immune response, study finds: Results from an early-phase randomised clinical trial of a Chinese vaccine candidate based on the inactivated whole SARS-CoV-2 virus (CoronaVac) are published today in The Lancet Infectious Diseases journal, finding [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/Wh3mrh09:54
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: DR Congo announces end of latest Ebola epidemic: The Democratic Republic of Congo on Wednesday declared the end of the country's latest Ebola epidemic, after the outbreak killed 55 people over the past five months. → https://is.gd/pPsWMb10:06
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Moderna's vaccine maker identifies the 'big challenges' to mass producing the coronavirus vaccine → https://is.gd/vLdZkx10:20
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: EXPLAINER: What's with the confusion over masks?: A lot of the effort to slow the spread of the coronavirus comes down to a seemingly simple concept: Wearing a mask. → https://is.gd/L99CAO10:34
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: As virus hits Italy's south, some flee troubled health care: Patients, some wrapped in blankets that look like they came from home, moan in their beds. What appears to be medical tubing and a wad of gauze or paper towels litter the floor of San Giuliano public hospital, which treats coronavirus patients in a bleak town in [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/353VNo10:48
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Can surgical masks be reused?: Health authorities say the most widespread anti-COVID weapon—surgical masks—must be thrown away after a single use, but environmental concerns are pushing some scientists to question this recommendation. → https://is.gd/YbN7CV11:00
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: Covid vaccine front-runners: How much they cost, who's bought them and how they're stored: The cost of some of the leading coronavirus vaccine candidates ranges from $3 to $37. There are also major differences when it comes to storage and logistics. → https://is.gd/RzFNHA11:13
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: (news): Coronavirus: Head of NHS Test and Trace Dido Harding self-isolating → https://is.gd/Ut4Kdb11:26
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Europe sees first dip in Covid-19 cases in months, but deaths up: WHO: The number of new COVID-19 cases declined last week for the first time in over three months, but deaths in the region continued to climb, WHO data showed Wednesday. → https://is.gd/zJdBQu11:39
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Moderna's coronavirus vaccine maker identifies 'big challenges' to mass production → https://is.gd/vLdZkx11:51
BrainstormNew from The Atlantic: The Last Children of Down Syndrome: Photographs by Julia Sellmann E very few weeks or so, Grete Fält-Hansen gets a call from a stranger asking a question for the first time: What is it like to raise a child with Down syndrome? Sometimes the caller is a pregnant woman, deciding whether to have an abortion. Sometimes a husband and [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/2fVS9P12:18
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Moderna's coronavirus vaccine maker identifies 'big challenges' to mass production → https://is.gd/vLdZkx12:30
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Congo announces end to its 11th deadly Ebola outbreak → https://is.gd/Ktm1v012:55
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Pfizer says final data analysis shows Covid vaccine is 95% effective – plans to submit to FDA in 'days' → https://is.gd/0RrBOt13:07
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Bill Gates says more than 50% of business travel will disappear in post-coronavirus world → https://is.gd/qpGcOc13:32
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Moderna's coronavirus vaccine maker identifies 'big challenges' to mass production → https://is.gd/vLdZkx13:44
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Pfizer and BioNTech Conclude Phase 3 Study of COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate, Meeting All Primary Efficacy Endpoints (81 votes) | https://investors.pfizer.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2020/Pfizer-and-BioNTech-Conclude-Phase-3-Study-of-COVID-19-Vaccine-Candidate-Meeting-All-Primary-Efficacy-Endpoints/default.aspx | https://redd.it/jwejyu13:54
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: (news): Coronavirus: Head of NHS Test and Trace Dido Harding self-isolating → https://is.gd/Ut4Kdb14:21
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: How a lung injury study helped inspire new COVID-19 drug trials: When Anna Greka, an institute member at the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard and a physician at Brigham and Women's Hospital, volunteered to help care for patients with COVID-19 at the peak of Boston's springtime surge, she saw first-hand the severity of lung [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/vXWMkO14:33
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Pfizer says final data analysis shows Covid vaccine is 95% effective, plans to submit to FDA in days → https://is.gd/0RrBOt14:46
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Belgium going in 'right direction' with virus figures: A month-long semi-lockdown in Belgium is working to limit the spread of and deaths by COVID-19, health authorities said Wednesday, while urging continued vigilance. → https://is.gd/k801mH15:23
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Pharma: STAT+: Pharmalittle: Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine shows 95% effectiveness; FDA vows to disclose scientific data for EUAs → https://is.gd/syEj9P15:36
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): FDA said to plan early December advisory meetings to discuss Covid-19 vaccines ahead of potential authorization → https://is.gd/gDeAwC15:48
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: At 769 deaths, one in every 1,000 North Dakotans has died with COVID-19 (10118 votes) | https://www.inforum.com/newsmd/coronavirus/6766034-At-769-deaths-one-in-every-1000-North-Dakotans-has-died-with-COVID-19 | https://redd.it/jw9e7s15:51
BrainstormNew from The Atlantic: Where Are the At-Home Coronavirus Tests?: Coronavirus infections in the United States are growing exponentially, and lawmakers may soon face an awful choice between another round of shutdowns and the deaths of tens of thousands more Americans. → https://is.gd/dGfmXs16:13
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: How mRNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna work, why they're a breakthrough and why they need to be kept so cold: As the weather cools, the number of infections of the COVID-19 pandemic are rising sharply. Hamstrung by pandemic fatigue, economic constraints and political discord, public health officials have struggled to control [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/jQfx1J16:26
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Now that two highly effective Covid vaccines are within reach, we just have to get them to 7.8 billion people → https://is.gd/nxnIId16:38
rpifannice16:46
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: Pfizer Covid vaccine 95% effective and passes all safety checks, final analysis shows (10468 votes) | https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/pfizer-covid-vaccine-safety-coronavirus-b1724874.html | https://redd.it/jweif716:46
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Nearly one-third of hospitals in England reached maximum ventilator bed capacity during first COVID-19 wave: Thirty percent of hospitals in England reached their maximum occupancy levels for beds with mechanical ventilation support during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, while the flagship Nightingale hospitals were [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/R3GrTO16:50
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Lethal brain infections in mice thwarted by decoy molecule: Researchers at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis have identified a molecule that protects mice from brain infections caused by Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus (VEEV), a mosquito-borne virus notorious for causing fast-spreading, deadly outbreaks [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/qJ3VLh17:02
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: We may have to accept a 'good enough' COVID-19 vaccine, at least in 2021: Australian health minister Greg Hunt said recently the government is on track to deliver COVID-19 vaccines from March 2021. → https://is.gd/2Y8YkH17:15
BrainstormNew from NPR: South Australia Enters 'Circuit Breaker' Coronavirus Lockdown: South Australia's strict lockdown went into effect at midnight Thursday and will last six days. No outdoor exercise will be allowed and only one person per household can leave on a single day. → https://is.gd/B1BMJ517:27
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus vaccine shots could go to U.S. health workers in about a month → https://is.gd/2F7rtv17:39
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Immunogenicity of an RNA Vaccine Candidate Against COVID-19 in Healthy Japanese Adults → https://is.gd/ybGkyt17:52
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: App could provide new way to track vaccine safety: Vaccines are one of society's greatest success stories, but like any treatment, there can be rare adverse events and they must be tested carefully. With a massive COVID-19 vaccination campaign on the horizon, Canadian researchers have launched a pilot study that could lead to a [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/0Li0Xp18:31
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Europe has half of world's 4M new virus cases but sees hope: Europe made up almost half of the world's 4 million new coronavirus cases last week but recorded a nearly 10% fall in infections compared to the week before, thanks in part to strict government lockdown measures that have fanned some discontent, the World Health [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/TmY2Kf18:43
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: France 'still far' from ending partial virus lockdown: French authorities are unlikely to lift a partial coronavirus lockdown any time soon, a government spokesman said Wednesday, even if some restrictions may be relaxed before Christmas. → https://is.gd/Ub81mO18:56
LjLridiculous.18:58
LjLLombardy is starting to show signs of improvement, which is great, but so its governor is already pushing to move it back from "red zone" to "orange zone", meaning, no more lockdown, potentially already by 27 November18:59
LjLde-facto, ↑18:59
ArsaneritLjL: Are you in Lombardy?18:59
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Are you feeling 'pandemic fatigue'?: (HealthDay)—As COVID-19 case numbers surge across the United States, some people are experiencing pandemic fatigue after many months of social distancing, mask wearing and quarantines. → https://is.gd/6sc1zm19:09
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: WHO warns vaccine won't help countries fend off current wave of infections: "We are not there with vaccines yet. We will get there, but we're not there," Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO's health emergencies program, said. → https://is.gd/aCJYR219:21
LjLArsanerit, yes19:28
ArsaneritStay safe please.19:29
LjLi can try. i just had to go to a gas station to get a DHL package that they *pretended* to have failed to deliver today19:29
LjLnobody buzzed today, they just didn't feel like delivering it19:29
LjLit's a friggin' heavy package too19:30
de-factohey LjL feeling better today?19:30
LjLde-facto, yeah, although i've terribly out of shape so i'm actually still "recovering" from bringing this unexpectedly heavy package home19:32
LjLyesterday i don't know... i either had a migraine aura, or just an anxiety attack19:32
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: 'A struggle:' Physical, mental ills can linger months after COVID recovery: (HealthDay)—Patients who survive severe COVID-19 after being hospitalized are not necessarily home-free upon discharge, new research warns. → https://is.gd/biH6Qz19:33
de-factoglad to hear you are feeling got some physical excercise :)19:34
LjL:P19:35
de-factoglad to hear you are feeling better and got some physical excercise :)19:35
LjLyeah i should do it in a more controlled fashion19:35
LjLand without it involving meeting gas station personnel not wearing a mask >:19:35
LjL%tell ryouma: here's a good demonstration of the reason the "it's just a sound, accept it and stop seeing it as threatening, and it'll be like it's gone away" concept about tinnitus is bullshit: https://www.reddit.com/r/tinnitus/comments/jvi7iq/i_thought_this_was_the_normal_sound_of_silence/  this person never KNEW they had tinnitus before now, and yet, they knew they couldn't enjoy silence and something seemed different from other people19:36
BrainstormLjL, I'll pass ryouma your message when they are around. 19:36
de-factoyeah indeed, shouldnt they be required to wesr masks in stores and gas stations?19:37
LjLde-facto, everywhere19:40
LjLde-facto, but anyway i didn't get inside his place, so it should be fine, also i was wearing an FFP219:40
LjLhe took my driving license for ID but i disinfected it later :P19:41
LjLi'm terribly clumsy at organizing my movements though19:41
de-factoyeah should be fine in this case, yet not everyone got an FFP219:41
de-factohere they wear masks, yet i try to avoid any contact possible19:44
de-factoalso the DHL guys, judt ringed and out the package directly behind the door and ran away lol19:45
de-factobut its fine i can understand they want to avoid contacts too19:46
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Coronavirus vaccine shots could go to U.S. health workers in about a month → https://is.gd/2F7rtv19:46
de-factoso the update from BioNtech/Pfizer looks even more promising19:52
de-facto%title https://investors.pfizer.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2020/Pfizer-and-BioNTech-Conclude-Phase-3-Study-of-COVID-19-Vaccine-Candidate-Meeting-All-Primary-Efficacy-Endpoints/default.aspx19:52
Brainstormde-facto: From investors.pfizer.com: Pfizer Inc. - Pfizer and BioNTech Conclude Phase 3 Study of COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate, Meeting All Primary Efficacy Endpoints19:52
de-facto"Primary efficacy analysis demonstrates BNT162b2 to be 95% effective against COVID-19 beginning 28 days after the first dose; 170 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were evaluated, with 162 observed in the placebo group versus 8 in the vaccine group"19:53
de-facto"Efficacy was consistent across age, gender, race and ethnicity demographics; observed efficacy in adults over 65 years of age was over 94%"19:53
de-facto"Data demonstrate vaccine was well tolerated across all populations with over 43,000 participants enrolled; no serious safety concerns observed; the only Grade 3 adverse event greater than 2% in frequency was fatigue at 3.8% and headache at 2.0%"19:53
de-facto"The companies expect to produce globally up to 50 million vaccine doses in 2020 and up to 1.3 billion doses by the end of 2021"19:54
de-facto"Analysis of the data indicates a vaccine efficacy rate of 95% (p<0.0001) in participants without prior SARS-CoV-2 infection (first primary objective) and also in participants with and without prior SARS-CoV-2 infection (second primary objective), in each case measured from 7 days after the second dose. The first primary objective analysis is based on 170 cases of COVID-19, as specified in the study protocol, of which 162 cases of 19:56
de-factoCOVID-19 were observed in the placebo group versus 8 cases in the BNT162b2 group. Efficacy was consistent across age, gender, race and ethnicity demographics. The observed efficacy in adults over 65 years of age was over 94%.19:56
de-facto"19:56
de-facto"There were 10 severe cases of COVID-19 observed in the trial, with nine of the cases occurring in the placebo group and one in the BNT162b2 vaccinated group."19:58
de-factohttps://biontech.de/covid-1920:00
de-facto%title20:00
Brainstormde-facto: From biontech.de: COVID-19 | BioNTech20:00
de-factoand hey there is another one :)20:02
de-facto%title https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-11-chinese-covid-vaccine-candidate-based.html20:02
Brainstormde-facto: From medicalxpress.com: Chinese COVID vaccine candidate based on inactivated virus appears safe, induces immune response, study finds20:02
de-facto%title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30843-4/fulltext20:03
Brainstormde-facto: From www.thelancet.com: Safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity of an inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in healthy adults aged 18–59 years: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 1/2 clinical trial - The Lancet [...]20:03
de-facto%title https://covidvax.org/covid19-vaccine/Sinovac/Inactivated-alum-Sinovac-Instituto-Butatan20:07
Brainstormde-facto: From covidvax.org: COVID-19 Vaccine: Inactivated by Sinovac, Instituto Butatan20:07
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Racial attitudes in a community affect COVID-19 numbers: Implicit racial attitudes within a community can effectively explain racial disparities seen in rates of COVID-19 in the United States, according to a new study published this week in the open-access journal PLOS ONE by George Cunningham and Lisa Wigfall of Texas A&M [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/zEAhA920:11
de-factoits really good news that it seems to also be effective in the elderly risk groups20:15
tinwhiskersAmazing though. There's some comments suggesting front line workers may even get the vaccine before the end of December.20:15
tinwhiskersyes, the stats for elderly are excellent news20:15
tinwhiskersget our front-line and most vulnerable people vaccinated first.... then me20:16
de-facto%title https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/11/18/vaccine-possibilities20:16
Brainstormde-facto: From blogs.sciencemag.org: Vaccine Possibilities | In the Pipeline20:16
de-factotime to buy some deep freezers for delivery chains20:18
tinwhiskersB-cell memory overall, though, looks to be long-lasting, and is expected by these results to stretch into years. For what it’s worth, there are patients who survived the 1918 influenza pandemic who had B cells that still responded with fresh neutralizing antibodies after over 90 years, so they can be rather hardy.20:18
tinwhiskerso.O20:18
de-facto%title https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v120:20
Brainstormde-facto: From www.biorxiv.org: Immunological memory to SARS-CoV-2 assessed for greater than six months after infection | bioRxiv20:20
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Cancel Thanksgiving, stay home, wear a mask — State and city leaders impose targeted coronavirus restrictions to curb Covid without tanking economy → https://is.gd/1N8nRQ20:23
de-facto"Those efficacy numbers, though, are measured for symptomatic coronavirus cases. The vaccine trial participants are not being pulled in at regular intervals for testing to see if they’ve gone positive-though-asymptomatic. We may get controlled data of that sort eventually, but for now, we know from the Moderna trial that the few people who came down with symptoms at all had very mild cases."20:23
de-factofrom the Derek Loewe blog20:23
tinwhiskersah 20:24
de-facto"The antibody levels that we’re seeing would argue for a low probability of having a significant number of vaccinated people walking around asymptomatically shedding coronavirus, and for anyone who does to be shedding a lot less of it for a shorter period of time."20:24
tinwhiskersStill, things are about as well as you could most optimistically expect. Amazingly fast.20:25
de-facto"...the worst case for a weakly effective vaccine might be that it could actually raise that number for a while by creating more asymptomatic cases rather than having the infection make people aware that they need to stay the hell inside. But I don’t think we’re going to see that. I think that the efficacy levels we’re seeing are indeed going to be epidemic-breaking if we can get sufficient numbers of people vaccinated."20:26
tinwhiskersIf people could just pull their heads in for another few months and suppress these runaway cases we could be looking back on most of this in a year.20:26
de-factoyeah it looks very good so far20:26
de-factobut also like its about time for vaccination e.g. with those potential escape mutations etc20:27
tinwhiskersdoes this also mean we may have vaccines for a chunk of common cold viruses in the near future?20:28
de-factoscaling production and delivery logistics to scale up for simultaneous worldwide vaccination will be a  huge challenge still though20:29
tinwhiskersyeah20:29
tinwhiskersI wish we could find a way to have countries contributing to production.20:29
tinwhiskersThe tech isn't particularly complicated20:30
de-factothe shorter the period for reaching the very majority the better because we have to hit it with a hammer everywhere at the same time to not give it a chance to build escape mutations under the new immunologic pressure from vaccinated people20:30
tinwhiskersyeah20:30
de-factoif it would be done too slow it might have a chance to "find a way" around that immunity just as common cold covs do every year20:31
tinwhiskersright20:31
de-factoso i hope they put every effort possible into making production scale with the HUGE demand20:32
tinwhiskersbut just getting numbers down in general helps reduce the chance of a change that defeats current antibodies.20:32
tinwhiskersthese runaway numbers are not at all good20:32
de-factoyeah but still if it is allowed to "bruteforce" the widespread immunity by vaccination (e.g. few people still carrying it doing mutations) it might be able to find a mutation that evades, hence we really need to reach as many people as fast as possible at the same time20:34
de-factoif we reach R0<<1 in most places it may just fizzle away20:34
de-factowell in all places 20:34
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: Trump officials see 'tremendous uptake' of CVS, Walgreens Covid vaccine program for seniors: U.S. officials are seeing "tremendous uptake" of a program that will allow CVS Health and Walgreens to administer Covid vaccines to seniors in facilities. → https://is.gd/KUR6ir20:35
de-facto%title https://cepi.net/news_cepi/cepi-creates-new-collaborative-taskforce-to-assess-impact-of-emerging-viral-strains-on-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccines/20:39
Brainstormde-facto: From cepi.net: CEPI creates new collaborative taskforce to assess impact of emerging viral strains on effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines – CEPI20:39
de-facto"To rapidly monitor the emergence of new COVID-19 viral strains and evaluate their impact on vaccine candidates in development, CEPI, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, has today announced the launch of a first-of-its-kind collaboration with the GISAID Initiative, Public Health England (PHE) and the National Institute for Biological Standards and Control (NIBSC) to further strengthen real-time global tracking and 20:41
de-factotesting of SARS-CoV-2 sequences– the virus behind COVID-19."20:41
de-facto%title https://cepi.net/COVAX/20:43
Brainstormde-facto: From cepi.net: COVAX: CEPI's response to COVID-19 – CEPI20:43
de-facto"CEPI, alongside Gavi and the World Health Organisation, launched COVAX – the vaccines pillar of the ACT Accelerator – with the aim of ending the acute phase of the pandemic by the end of 2021."20:43
de-facto"COVAX is the only solution that will deliver fair, equitable access to vaccines for every country that participates."20:44
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): U.S. is in an 'absolutely dangerous situation' as Covid outbreak worsens, top health official says → https://is.gd/zvANXz20:47
de-factobtw the Derek Loewe blog nails it, very much recommended to read it, https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/11/18/vaccine-possibilities20:48
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Effectiveness of Adding a Mask Recommendation to Other Public Health Measures to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Danish Mask Wearers: A Randomized Controlled Trial (82 votes) | https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6817 | https://redd.it/jwgbqd20:53
Arsanerit¿May I hope?20:59
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): New York City will close schools for in-person learning to curb Covid outbreak, Mayor de Blasio says → https://is.gd/GIrSSZ21:00
Arsaneritde-facto: Thank you for the blog link.21:12
ArsaneritExcellent write-up, only the last paragraph is implicitly US-centric.21:12
Arsanerit"Pfizer and Moderna both say that they can make in the range of 20 million doses by the end of the year", the blog post doesn't even ask the question how many of those are for the US market, seemingly assuming they all are?!21:13
de-factoyes Derek Lowe seems to be very competent and always on top of most recent developments, his blog is awesome21:13
spybertIt is nice to hear about all of this research, but human stupidity may "Trump" all of it.  A local nursing home here in California, USA, failed to segregate covid infected and non-infected patients and infected 100% of their staff and all but 4 of their patients.  21:17
spybertIt amazes me that stories like this barely get mentioned in the news media.  Usually they just report the number of deaths, nothing more.21:20
de-factoLjL, what does the column "tamponi" stand for in the csv from yesterday?21:23
de-factotrying to get a proper translation for the coiumn in English21:23
BrainstormNew from FDA Press Releases: FDA Releases New Outbreak Investigation Table: FDA releases new tool to communicate foodborne illness outbreak information frequently and as soon as the FDA begins an outbreak investigation. → https://is.gd/M7iyoU21:25
de-factoare those tests conducted or such?21:27
de-factoso something like tamponi => "tests_swabs" or such?21:30
de-factoLjL, is this a somewhat accurate translation of the column headers? https://paste.gg/p/anonymous/2448c475832246799dbe8009b18b369921:33
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): New York City will close schools for in-person learning to curb Covid outbreak, Mayor de Blasio says → https://is.gd/GIrSSZ21:38
de-factoLjL, refined the hospitalizations script from yesterday and added a gnuplot svg output for a logarithmic graph https://paste.gg/p/anonymous/592186d6f1b94126a6d193826921158321:49
de-facto%title https://imgur.com/a/nHT7HMA https://i.imgur.com/1MFzZZ7.png source: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/master/dati-regioni/dpc-covid19-ita-regioni.csv21:50
Brainstormde-facto: From imgur.com: COVID-19 Italy ICU occupancy total and per region - Album on Imgur21:50
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): Cancel Thanksgiving, stay home, wear a mask — State and city leaders impose targeted coronavirus restrictions to curb Covid without tanking economy → https://is.gd/1N8nRQ21:51
de-factointerestingly there is not state with region_code = 421:52
de-factoi wonder why21:53
gigasu_shidaspybert do you have an article about the nursing home incident?21:57
BrainstormNew from PLOS ONE: The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on public transit demand in the United States: by Luyu Liu, Harvey J. Miller, Jonathan Scheff The COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions led to major transit demand decline for many public transit systems in the United States. This paper is a systematic analysis of the dynamics and dimensions of [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/0azOkX22:04
ryoumahttps://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-lockdowns/22:41
Brainstormryouma: At 2020-11-18 18:36:45 UTC, LjL told you: here's a good demonstration of the reason the "it's just a sound, accept it and stop seeing it as threatening, and it'll be like it's gone away" concept about tinnitus is bullshit: https://www.reddit.com/r/tinnitus/comments/jvi7iq/i_thought_this_was_the_normal_sound_of_silence/ this person never KNEW they had tinnitus before now, and yet, they knew they couldn't enjoy silence and someth22:41
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Vaccine Possibilities (80 votes) | https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/11/18/vaccine-possibilities | https://redd.it/jwjaak22:42
LjLde-facto, sorry i was busy toying with a tape deck from 1984 :o  tamponi is indeed swabs23:49
de-factosounds like nerdy fun :)23:52
de-factothanks, i am playing with the csv data, its quite neat to have it all in one file23:52
de-factobut they mixed daily new and total accumulated, so there is a time derivative between some columns23:53
BrainstormNew from CNBC Health: (news): New York City will close schools for in-person learning to curb Covid outbreak, Mayor de Blasio says → https://is.gd/GIrSSZ23:55
rpifannice23:57
de-factoi wish they would do that here in Germany too23:59

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