libera/##covid-19/ Monday, 2020-11-23

Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: Trump coronavirus vaccine chief has had ‘no contact’ with Biden transition team: Operation Warp Speed chief adviser Dr. Moncef Slaoui has "been informed" not to share vaccine information outside of the Trump administration, he tells NBC's Meet the Press on Sunday. → https://is.gd/AWDk39	00:04
LjL	Xela[m], that's not a good way to evaluate it. there are countless confounding factors if you look at various countries. the way to know if a drug works is to do a proper trial	00:13
Brainstorm	Updates for Uruguay: +135 cases (now 4699), +2 deaths (now 71) since a day ago	00:23
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: Trump attends his final G-20 summit but does not participate in pandemic preparedness session: President Trump did not participate in a virtual G-20 event on pandemic preparedness, even as Covid-19 infections surge and break daily records across the U.S. → https://is.gd/OaRHpt	00:28
Brainstorm	Updates for Canada: +4792 cases (now 330503) since a day ago	00:37
Brainstorm	Updates for France: +15412 cases (now 2.2 million) since 22 hours ago — Netherlands: +4242 cases (now 485736), +23 deaths (now 8919) since 22 hours ago	01:23
Brainstorm	Updates for Saint Lucia: +16 cases (now 220) since a day ago	01:37
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Two million people took flights over weekend despite Covid travel warnings ahead of Thanksgiving → https://is.gd/vuiXcH	02:05
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Gaza warns hospitals reaching Covid-19 breaking point → https://is.gd/mafLFO	02:42
Brainstorm	Updates for New Zealand: +2 cases (now 2030) since a day ago	02:51
LjL	<Brainstorm> New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: UK to announce self-isolation no longer required for contact with COVID-19 cases - The Telegraph → https://is.gd/VKxwDQ	03:09
LjL	Contacts of those who test positive will be asked to undergo daily tests for seven days, and will be allowed to go about their business in the meantime, the newspaper said.	03:10
LjL	Ministers will say that the current system of requiring people to stay at home for 14 days will be dismantled nationwide in January, if pilot schemes succeed, according to the newspaper.	03:10
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: UK to announce self-isolation no longer required for contact with COVID-19 cases - The Telegraph → https://is.gd/8kHzkI	03:18
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Germany braces for extension of lockdown until December 20 → https://is.gd/hGscI3	03:30
CoronaBot	04/r/coronavirus: Texas first responders who die from COVID-19 denied state benefits (10005 votes) \| https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/local/investigates/texas-first-responders-who-die-from-covid-19-denied-state-benefits/287-4aefc2ed-0e21-48ad-ba63-62266a2e9826 \| https://redd.it/jz4prg	03:30
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Studies reveal alarming trends of anxiety, depression among young adults during COVID-19 pandemic → https://is.gd/aZMLrz	03:42
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Report: Israel To Transfer Millions Of COVID-19 Vaccines To Palestinians → https://is.gd/vEEUvF	04:30
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express (Health): Life Positive: Young philosophers debate ways to tackle pandemic, loneliness and an excess of free time → https://is.gd/uijxQ4	04:43
Brainstorm	Updates for Belgium: +1875 cases (now 558779), +96 deaths (now 15618) since a day ago	04:51
euod[m]	LjL: yeah so, the UK has given up and has accepted that their failures are going to cause mass casualty?	05:19
LjL	that's not really how i read it	05:20
LjL	if you are supposed to self-isolate for being a contact, what are the chances you're going to get caught if you don't? the answer here is "low" and i bet it's low in the UK too	05:20
LjL	instead they ask you to get tested every day for a week and if you do that it should be easy to see if you don't show up for the testing	05:21
LjL	is it a good idea? i'm not sure, but i can see what they may be trying to do	05:21
euod[m]	that's pretty dire, if it's based on an assumption that nobody is following the rules	05:21
de-facto	%title https://imgur.com/a/8E11AXF https://i.imgur.com/NNif93n.png source https://epistat.sciensano.be/Data/COVID19BE_tests.csv	05:26
Brainstorm	de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID-19 Beligum: Tests, Cases, Positivity, Reproduction - Album on Imgur	05:26
de-facto	Cases and Positivity go down, hence also Reproduction	05:28
joerg	moin	05:38
de-facto	moin moin	05:40
de-facto	%cases Germany	05:41
Brainstorm	de-facto: In Germany, there have been 932111 confirmed cases (1.1% of the population) and 14343 deaths (1.5% of cases) as of 7 hours ago. 26.5 million tests were performed (3.5% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.5% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 2.3% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data.	05:41
de-facto	RKI Germany: Infections +10864 (929133 total), Fatalities +90 (14112 total)	05:41
de-facto	RKI Germany: COVID-19 cases in ICU 3715 with 2132 on ventilators (57.39%)	05:42
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: Politics, science and the remarkable race for a coronavirus vaccine → https://is.gd/VBPPE1	05:44
joerg	LjL: I think the rationale is that being a contact doesn't mean you MUST be infected. If they got the test capacity, it's waz smarter to get you tested for 7 days (after which time you either get a positive test or won't have caught it) and send you to quarantine only IF you really become a potential spreader	05:45
LjL	i think the problem with that though is that you may already start spreading it before you get your positive PCR	05:45
joerg	did they mention which type of test they will use? might as well be quicktests which only take a 15 minutes	05:47
joerg	even if it would take a 24h, you catch 4/5 or somesuch of infectious days and probably >90% of the transmission risk, due to amount of exhaled virus not equal in early days like in maximum	05:50
joerg	I think it's quite clever and probanly high compliance	05:51
joerg	I'm with you in that compliance for the "you met Corrin, you stay in your room 2 weeks!" is <<90%	05:55
de-facto	%title https://imgur.com/a/fMW4vTN https://i.imgur.com/Y80v8tE.png source https://www.intensivregister.de/#/intensivregister tab "zeitreihen"	05:58
Brainstorm	de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID-19 Germany: Occupied ICU Beds and their time derivative - Album on Imgur	05:58
aggi	as a reminder when china sent cities into lockdown in Germany Karneval was celebrated with millions densily crowded, and no tests taken at that time	05:59
aggi	Nov. 2019	06:00
joerg	de-facto: thanks, pal! first good news since a few days, I already started feeling deparate about R_eff not going below 1	06:00
de-facto	So occupied ICU beds are still on monotonic raise in Germany, but the time derivative (speed) of raise is on decline	06:00
de-facto	i plotted 10-fold of the change to make it more visible on same y-axis, it being below 500 meaning less than 50 additional occupied ICU beds per day	06:02
joerg	btw sorry for _my_ charts getting incresingly outdated and useless, I net Murphy: as soon as you're not sitting in front of the terminal, the cronjobs start breaking	06:03
aggi	the issue in German hospitals was lack of educated staff, reported for years long before the cv19 campaign began	06:03
de-facto	once the time derivative crosses the zero line the peak will be reached and hopefully when time derivative becomes negative we will see a decline, though for that probably more strict containment would be required	06:03
joerg	which we'll get this week, no doubt	06:04
de-facto	yes very true, hospitals are limited by lack of personal, they are working like crazy there already	06:04
de-facto	i am not so sure yet if we will get a decline in incidence this week	06:04
de-facto	i do hope for that though	06:05
joerg	I meant tougher measures	06:09
joerg	too little, too late, it's boringly predictable	06:09
joerg	oh hi alter ego!	06:10
de-facto	mobile and bouncer?	06:12
joerg	travel and home WS	06:13
de-facto	ah nice	06:13
joerg	not really >>btw sorry for _my_ charts getting incresingly outdated and useless, I net Murphy: as soon as you're not sitting in front of the terminal, the cronjobs start breaking<<	06:13
de-facto	yeah you are correct, we will get more strict containment this Wednesday very likely, i just dont get why they are wasting time while temperatures are falling	06:14
joerg	those politicians are such lame cowards. They would have had a >60% support for faster stricter lockdown, for a limited time	06:17
joerg	they are wasting our nerves and time and money wit insufficient inappropriate too late measures	06:18
joerg	not even starting to shout at them about the wasted lifes	06:19
de-facto	agreed, they think they might get more acceptance but indeed with more strict measures the success would be much more reassuring	06:19
aggi	are economic side effects relevant to this channel?	06:20
aggi	maybe, let me say, i remember an economic 'theory', and the 'corona emergency aids' in germany are remarkable insofar 75% of the last year's income would be compensated for some shop owners etc.	06:21
joerg	guess what has more impact on economy, a 4 weeks full lockdown or a 4 months fake lockdown	06:22
aggi	i wonder how this would be calculated, if it was the tax report from the last year and who would benefit then, if no/low taxed income was reported?	06:22
aggi	a year ago	06:23
joerg	that's just one of the many problems in this	06:23
y000danon	It’s too late for containment measures. Public trust is now zero here in Texas. “2 weeks to slow the curve” turned into aimless and hapless blame of one political side against the other and the same constant failure - and the public seeing failure upwards for each failing leader.	06:24
y000danon	I’ve seen far more death from suicide and economic distress than the disease. The lack of leadership there says everything. Special needs families falling apart and otherwise.	06:24
y000danon	It’s not a one sided logistical game. People have to thrive despite. Asking them not to thrive is a boot on their faces and they know it	06:25
y000danon	So that’s the question. How do we thrive and how do we accept that there will never be enough of a lockdown to satisfy anyone	06:25
aggi	that's another remarkable detail, the generaous welfare system in place, and who would 'benefit' now, and how legislation was altered in germany, and who is crying for more of it, 'corona emergency aid'.	06:26
joerg	USA is a desparate situation	06:27
joerg	aggi: don't get me started	06:28
joerg	re 75% compensation: there~s a supply chain for gastro which is same magnitude like for car manufs, and those will get NO compensation whatsoever for their business dwindling to a 5 to 10% of normal big gastro customers times	06:30
joerg	gastro and event	06:31
joerg	and exactly those are the domains that will stay shut down the longest	06:31
aggi	IfO munich argued the 'lockdown was an investment into economic future', loosely translated	06:32
joerg	to keep a few other domains of social activity up, like furniture houses and schools	06:32
y000danon	I heard rumblings of German band on gatherings and protests again - this true? Blocks are up for info and the mininfo is thick	06:33
joerg	umm, rephrase please. can't parse	06:34
joerg	aggi: >>lockdown an investment into economic future<< tomorrow's headline today: >>project future collapsed, suffered severe underfunding<<	06:37
de-facto	btw that pandemic will cost more than 300 000 000 000 Euro for the years 2020 and 2021 in Germany alone	06:39
de-facto	dept will go up to 70% and more	06:40
joerg	I heard it's still a steal compared to leeman fuckup	06:41
aggi	it's somewhat ironic, but most of the lockdown is what i had enjoyed the last 20years as 'normal' living conditions	06:42
aggi	and the current one is rather 'mild'	06:42
aggi	i could easily imagine to force millions to relocate 10 times in 10 years to seek new job opportunities	06:42
joerg	hehehe same here. The most annoying part is to not have the OPTIONS anymore	06:42
de-facto	imho the current one does not deserve to be in a category called lockdown	06:42
joerg	it~s a hoax	06:43
de-facto	i would not go so far, but its by far not enough to contain it	06:44
joerg	let's see what Soeder and friends are getting accomplished next 3 days	06:44
de-facto	them discussing that kids might become unhappy if mask wearing in schools would be made mandatory, come on	06:45
joerg	THE FSCK!!!	06:45
joerg	but BUT but... the KIDS!!1! and chrossmess!1!!	06:46
de-facto	we need like 75% contact reduction, its that simple. i dont care where they implement it, i only care about that their implementation is controlled and followed strictly	06:46
joerg	start damn winter/xmess school holidays end of week! and open schools on 20th of January	06:47
de-facto	yeah that would be a very very good idea	06:48
de-facto	and also to reduce contacts to only one other household	06:49
de-facto	and make wearing proper masks mandatory outside home, no exceptions	06:50
de-facto	otherwise people begin to discuss again, like when i have to wear it there why not there bla bla, well just wear it, all the times.	06:50
joerg	peer group, write down who are those 3 persons outside your household you want and may meet next 4 weeks. I you get caught meeting somebody else, no matter where and for how long... #BANG#	06:51
de-facto	then traveling, it just is not necessary in the very large majority of cases, for the rest they should get special exceptions	06:52
joerg	traveling already covered by peer group regulation	06:53
de-facto	they always tell "if we want to make Christmas safe, we should isolate in the time prior to it to make sure we dont bring it to our families... "	06:53
de-facto	well how about making a super-strict lockdown in all of Germany then?	06:53
de-facto	is that not exactly that?	06:53
joerg	I don't give a flying F about xmess	06:53
joerg	otherwise yes. The Hammer and the Dance. Read that again you politicians, and while zou're at it read the very fine sequels as well	06:55
de-facto	i keep my standpoint: the more strict a lockdown the sooner the success, the less the impact and unwanted sideeffects	06:55
joerg	exactly	06:55
de-facto	*economic impact	06:55
de-facto	with out current "lockdown light" we probably have found the critical endemic point with R~1, ok good to know, can we now please go for the real goal of getting ontop again and bring it under control by tracing once we brought incidence down to a level allowing for that?	06:57
joerg	if really everybody woukld stay at home for a 2 weeks if living alone, for 3 weeks if living with somebody else, we would have hammered down this virus into oblivion	06:57
joerg	but REALLY stay at home 24/7	06:58
de-facto	yes but people want to have fun, meet friends, get entertained, etc pp	06:58
de-facto	i also dont get why this is not possible, to be honest i would have no problem with staying indoors for 2-3 weeks when i could prepare for it in advance	06:59
de-facto	and this kind of strategy works extremely well if implemented aggressively and strictly enough, just look at how China brought it down	07:00
de-facto	or also Australia, a culture similar to ours in many aspects, so it is possible	07:02
de-facto	they just were much more determined in containment and less tolerant to saboteurs	07:02
de-facto	but here? we want to celebrate Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Years	07:03
de-facto	well i guess we will see how that will work out	07:04
de-facto	in my opinion its playing with the fire in high incidence regions	07:04
Brainstorm	Updates for Nova Scotia, Canada: +11 cases (now 1179) since a day ago — Germany: +391 cases (now 932367) since 8 hours ago — Yukon, Canada: +3 cases (now 32) since 2 days ago	07:05
de-facto	quite old but still true https://tomaspueyo.medium.com/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56	07:06
de-facto	%title	07:06
Brainstorm	de-facto: From tomaspueyo.medium.com: Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance \| by Tomas Pueyo \| Medium	07:06
aggi	who is to say some virus wouldn't remain dormant and could pop up similar to herpes whenever the immune system was weakened?	07:06
de-facto	he wrote many more articles https://tomaspueyo.medium.com/	07:06
de-facto	aggi because it does not integrate itself into cells dna or such	07:07
de-facto	his latest article https://tomaspueyo.medium.com/coronavirus-the-swiss-cheese-strategy-d6332b5939de	07:07
de-facto	%title	07:07
Brainstorm	de-facto: From tomaspueyo.medium.com: Coronavirus: The Swiss Cheese Strategy \| by Tomas Pueyo \| Nov, 2020 \| Medium	07:07
aggi	if the assumption was accepted, in medical context, a virus couldn't be eradicated but would remain dormant (coronavirus documented since 1960s), then the entire lockdown-agenda is questionable by itself.	07:11
de-facto	HSV-1 virus is a DNA virus afaik	07:11
aggi	furthermore by definition the reported 'infections' didn't meet the definition both are required to recognize such: a positive test AND symptoms.	07:12
de-facto	well even if not eradicated it could be controlled, just look at China or NZ, they probably have economic growth instead of severe impact	07:12
de-facto	huh? the only thing that matters is viral reproduction because that is the begin of all the problems	07:13
aggi	a positive test without symptoms wasn't considered a relevant medical concern iirc, nonetheless public reports refer to positive tests alone.	07:13
aggi	which has almost zero relevance, given the fact Nov. 2019 millions celebrated Karneval and no tests were taken at all.	07:15
de-facto	i dont get your point	07:15
de-facto	a positive test indicates the presence of viral RNA, which originates from fully functional virions, which indicate the ability of a carrier to infect others at some point	07:16
joerg	FDP: >>Incidences gone down a bit but not enough yet. the measures should be kept for longer like until february, but not as strict as they are now<< WTF?? NO SIR! the incidences did NOT go down, not a bit yet. And the virus won't stop spreading like it revcently DOES just because we tell to it >>the measures will stay til February<<.	07:16
aggi	it is a question: what was supposed to be accomplished with what's publicly reported?	07:16
aggi	and the defintion of an infection wasn't mine, but defined by guidelines.	07:17
de-facto	the goal is to get new infection under control as they are the source of all the problems that develop from the disease later on	07:18
de-facto	i dont care about definitions of infection by someone, i only care about the ability of a carrier to infect someone else	07:19
aggi	sure, hence symptoms	07:19
joerg	unrelated	07:20
de-facto	44% of infections from carriers to someone susceptible already happened before the onset of symptoms	07:20
joerg	if any	07:21
de-facto	so its too late to wait for symptoms to occur, if they ever occur for that spreader	07:21
aggi	ok, if no symptoms occured then an infection may not be that critical - i don't know, only citing - and what remained was lethality anomalies (which were discussed already how these could be explained)	07:22
de-facto	%title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0869-5	07:22
Brainstorm	de-facto: From www.nature.com: Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19 \| Nature Medicine	07:22
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Coronavirus: German foreign minister slams COVID protester's Nazi resistance comparison → https://is.gd/WCEMlM	07:22
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +25720 cases (now 12.6 million), +167 deaths (now 262701) since 9 hours ago	07:23
de-facto	aggi, we are talking about the ability of a carrier (infected person) to shed virus particles on the environment hence susceptible people in perimeter, for that it does not really matter if symptoms occurred or if that specific carrier will get a severe progression later on and die	07:23
joerg	>>i don't know<< you're aware you;re citing bullshit? If you;re aware you should explain what;s youtr point in this citation	07:24
de-facto	well ok which symptoms such as coughing and sneezing someone might actually produce more aerosol particles, but early on, before onset of symptoms the viral concentration in the upper respiratory tract is at peak level	07:24
aggi	no, i'm citing credible sources but i had to dig out the detailed references, and an 'infection' was defined by both a positive test AND symptoms	07:25
de-facto	nope that is just not true	07:25
aggi	this was related to guidelines from RKI who was to be tested	07:25
joerg	that's not common sense	07:25
aggi	sure, it's countless contradictions	07:25
de-facto	infection means that a contamination with the pathogen lead to viral replication (for example in the upper respiratory tract) hence a nasal swab or pharyngeal swab will test positive for detecting the viral RNA	07:26
de-facto	ah yeah the RKI changed its testing strategies because simply speaking we dont have enough test capacity to give everyone asking for it a test	07:27
de-facto	so you are correct, unfortunately they only recommend testing for more likely infected	07:27
joerg	when RKI recommends to only test symtomatic cases, it's a mere disaster management to use the available test capacity the most effective (though even that is highly arguable)	07:28
de-facto	but that is unfortunate and due to the lack of preparation for demand in testing capacity	07:28
aggi	including the fact during the 'deadliest pandemic in 30 years' 2017/18 winter season already no corona tests at all were taken, and in Nov 2019 germans continued celebrating carneval, millions densely crowded, and no tests taken either	07:28
aggi	so, even if the tests are reliable, nonetheless the publicly reported data is, well, in my opinion almost useless	07:29
de-facto	https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Teststrategie/Testkriterien_Herbst_Winter.html	07:29
aggi	the only useful data remaining would be if sufficient ICU capacity was remaining, and this couldn't be fixed by lockdown either, if lack of hopsital staff was missing	07:29
de-facto	we discussed about that already, during 2017/2018 there was no SARS-CoV-2 circulating, not even known, hence also no tests	07:29
de-facto	https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Massnahmen_Verdachtsfall_Infografik_Tab.html	07:30
aggi	ok, so my conclusion is the current public reporting (not the health crisis itself), public reporting is politically motived only!, and I completely fail to recognize what was to be accomplished.	07:31
aggi	or, imagine this a pandemic was evident three years ago already but politicians did NOT act upon it.	07:31
de-facto	yes thats correct too, hospitalizations have almost no bias in comparison to targeted testing (not representative screening), but the problem is that hospitalizations will be behind their cause like 10-14 days or such	07:32
aggi	medical recommendations existed to vaccinate for pneumococces (such as the one Frau Dr. Merkel received), but politicians did not act upon it.	07:32
aggi	de-facto: the reports and analysis i had seen indicated the lockdown was ineffective with regards to 'infections'	07:33
de-facto	with correct i meant your statement that ICU usage is the more reliable metric	07:33
de-facto	i disagree with that testing strategy is politically motivated, its simply out of the overwhelming of lab capacity that we now have to target it to more likely cases	07:33
aggi	i am not in opposition to the lockdown, i am in opposition to the insane lies spread	07:33
de-facto	but that indeed brings the problem that real incidence of new infections and the incidence reported by testing depends strongly on targeting	07:34
de-facto	aggi, if you refer to Reff coming down before begin of lockdown it was due to people already began to distance due to the reports they have seen from other countries	07:36
de-facto	but that does not meant that the lockdown was ineffective	07:36
aggi	thats another lie de-facto, because a pandemic does NOT spread exponentially	07:36
de-facto	in fact it was responsible to hold Reff down below 1 so incidence dies off very efficiently in the first wave	07:36
aggi	1) a global aggregate follows a logistic trend	07:37
aggi	2) it is locally clustered	07:37
joerg	a friend of mine also told me just yeaterday >>the percentage of positive tests is going up, that means they do less tests,, somebody (BILD?) must have spread another toxic fake story	07:37
joerg	s/,,/<</	07:37
de-facto	aggi yes but the exponential replication only begins to differentiate itself from a logistic curve once resources such as susceptible begin to become limited	07:38
aggi	de-facto: Reff would decrease with no lockdown at all since the spreading decreased if almost everyone was infected already, and the lockdown measures were considered ineffective by some reports at least	07:38
de-facto	just look at the curves, they are very well represented by exponential time progressions at their initial raises until containment kicks in and people change their behavirou	07:39
de-facto	aggi, you are citing the herd immunity approach it did not work out well in many countries	07:39
aggi	3) and, if at all the pandemic reporting was credible (which it is NOT), the question would be when the pandemic had begun, for which strong indicators existed it could have been winter 2017/18 already	07:39
joerg	aggi: now it becomes annoying. This is the old lame "herd immunity" concept. NO THANKS to the concept and the approach itself	07:40
de-facto	aggi, that is nonsense i am sorry	07:40
joerg	and even NO THANKS to the mindset	07:40
de-facto	if it had began 2017/2018 why did it pause 2019? why did not genetic variety emerge from it?	07:41
aggi	i am not in favor of any strategy (because i am no expert), i am only referring to obvious lies spread, and inherent contradictions which are obvious without doubt	07:41
de-facto	you did not mention a single source yet	07:41
joerg	you ARE spreading obvious lies	07:41
aggi	de-facto: seasonal fluctuations? what would i know. it is those who had to answer who had spread all the other lies.	07:41
de-facto	and to be honest i am hesitant to take your word for it	07:42
aggi	joerg: i was referring to RKI data for example	07:42
aggi	then it is not me lying but someone else	07:42
de-facto	i dont buy it, show me the data, or else it did not happen	07:43
joerg	"the moon is a cheese. All those lies about the moon!!! No, you got to ask those who tell lies like they landed there and fetched stones from there how they could fetch stones from a cheese" plonk	07:45
aggi	well, next stage will be the vaccination debate, and this will cross a red line of mine then	07:47
de-facto	living in a society comes with both, benefits and responsibilities	07:49
joerg	I'm afraid next stage I am offered to learn that vaccination is also encumbered by just lies all over. And that will cross a red line at my side	07:54
aggi	which vaccine? for corona alone several dozens of vaccines were proposed, and a relevant one which was recommended a year ago already, pneumococces which Frau Dr. Merkel received wasn't considered	07:55
joerg	oh shut up	07:56
joerg	LjL: still around?	07:56
aggi	i asked a question!	07:56
joerg	tinwhiskers: Ping	07:57
tinwhiskers	joerg: hi	07:57
joerg	hi :-)	07:58
tinwhiskers	Much as I think aggi has a slim grip of reality and is just giving covid-denier talking points that really don't make any sense and are couched in non-committal, hand wavey buck passing I'm not inclined to do anything about it right now. I think aggi is totally failing to add anything meaningful here and really doesn't belong here, and I think we'd be better off if he left permanently. Just totally unwanted imo. Just more truther	08:06
tinwhiskers	bullshit.	08:06
tinwhiskers	However, he's being a waste of space in a fairly convivial way...	08:07
tinwhiskers	Having repeated the same crap again today though I certainly don't want to see another groundhog day tomorrow.	08:08
aggi	'deadliest pandemic in 30 years' this is what i cited, from winter season 2017/18	08:09
tinwhiskers	Yes you did, several times. But WTF. Get a grip.	08:10
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid vaccine is 70% effective, trial shows: British pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca on Monday said an interim analysis of clinical trials showed its coronavirus vaccine has an average efficacy of 70% in protecting against the virus. → https://is.gd/OsBw96	08:23
Brainstorm	Updates for Saint Petersburg, Russia: +2668 cases (now 97938), +57 deaths (now 4953) since a day ago — Moscow Oblast, Russia: +949 cases (now 102802), +16 deaths (now 1902) since a day ago — Queretaro, Mexico: +860 cases (now 18664), +20 deaths (now 1320) since 2 days ago — Zacatecas, Mexico: +824 cases (now 14652), +23 deaths (now 1197) since 2 days ago	08:23
de-facto	and to bring that to the end: 2017/2018 there was a severe Influenza season (B/Yamagata strain) and this only was included in 4-strain vaccines but not in 3-strain vaccines	08:29
de-facto	this has absolutely nothing to do with SARS-CoV-2 at all	08:29
de-facto	source: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grippesaison_2017/2018	08:29
joerg	thanks!!! :D	08:29
joerg	so we finally at least know the origin of this confusion	08:30
de-facto	source for the vaccination recommendations: https://influenza.rki.de/Saisonberichte/2017.pdf	08:30
de-facto	recommended 3 strain: A/Michigan/45/2015 (H1N1)pdm09 ; A/Singapore/INFIMH-16-0019/2016 (H3N2) ; B/Colorado/06/2017 (Victoria line)	08:32
de-facto	additional for 4 strain: B/Phuket/3073/2013 (Yamagata linie)	08:33
de-facto	anyhow offtopic	08:33
joerg	comment of my medical doctor a 4 weeks ago >>this year we (the doctors) may decide by ourselves which vaccine to use, so this year it' s the good stuff<< :-D	08:34
joerg	and indeed off topic	08:35
aggi	wrong de-facto , at least two experts (Kekules, Lauterbach) insisted, in opposition to RKI guidelines, patients with 'flu symptons' should have been tested, but these weren't	08:37
aggi	and again, to put an end to this, those two experts agreed what was rather dangerous was PARALLEL INFECTIONS	08:38
joerg	honestly. Does your ranting have any logical stringence and thread?	08:39
aggi	yes, i followed interviews and reports from experts	08:40
joerg	QED, again a comment where we all think "UH hu, and that's related how?"	08:40
aggi	and i awaiting an answer still: what was supposed to be accomplished with the publicly spread lies?	08:40
joerg	that's pretty sad for you, awaiting an answer and nobody seems to care	08:41
joerg	now, whom could you possibly pester to tell you WHY nobody cares?	08:44
joerg	I feel with you. I also am still demanding an explanation why nobody came last wednesday and donated a 424242EUR to me	08:49
CoronaBot	04/r/covid19: Oxford Vaccine is 70.4% effective when combining data from two dosing regimens (99 votes) \| https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-11-23-oxford-university-breakthrough-global-covid-19-vaccine \| https://redd.it/jzd0pv	08:56
joerg	70.4%? hmmmm	09:03
Brainstorm	Updates for Russia: +25173 cases (now 2.1 million), +361 deaths (now 36540) since a day ago	09:06
joerg	aaaaah >> efficacy was 90% in one and 62% in the other Higher efficacy regimen used a halved first dose and standard second dose<<	09:06
joerg	weird! halved first dose increased efficacy?	09:07
tinwhiskers	aggi: tomorrow if you decide to come back I'm going to ask that you start making some sort of sense or I'm just going to quiet you. I mean, you're so far from right you're not even wrong so it's hard to know what to do. You just are making no sense whatsoever. I beginning to think you have some sort of mental condition so kinda feel sorry for you but whatever the hell you're trying to communicate is not working. It's just noise and	09:08
tinwhiskers	continuing with it is disruptive so if you can't put together some sort of rational thesis or leave of your own volition I'll be doing it for you.	09:08
aggi	if at all efficacy could be estimated given most hadn't shown symptoms anyway (from either an infection or vaccination), according to most reports. and how else was efficacy be estimated otherwise?	09:10
aggi	effective against what, for what?	09:10
tinwhiskers	Again. Disjointed nonsense. Are you a Markov chain bot?	09:10
aggi	and, how could a single number epxress such efficacy? 70% for which time span would be the bare minimum to mention?	09:11
tinwhiskers	No need to wait until tomorrow then.	09:11
joerg	not bad... for a Markov chain	09:14
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: New Zealand leader Jacinda Ardern offers coronavirus know-how to Joe Biden → https://is.gd/FQA51w	09:41
euod[m]	joerg: amusingly, GPT2 is the state of the art neural network for text generation, and it doesn't know about COVID19 at all.	09:51
euod[m]	it was trained before the pandemic so it just has no text references about it at all.	09:51
euod[m]	.. though to be honest it didn't do well on pandemics before then. prompted with "The most well known pandemic is", GPT2 produced:	09:53
euod[m]	"The most well known pandemic is Aids. In 2000 a mysterious illness swept through parts of Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, killing millions of people. It was believed that there was something in the water, and there were so many reports of illnesses, that there was a suspicion that an infectious virus was behind the outbreak."	09:53
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid vaccine shows an average 70% effectiveness in preventing the virus: AstraZeneca on Monday said an interim analysis of clinical trials showed its coronavirus vaccine has an average efficacy of 70% in protecting against the virus. → https://is.gd/OsBw96	09:54
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: Eminent Indian-American physician Ajay Lodha passes away due to COVID-19 complications → https://is.gd/dZY2JP	10:07
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid vaccine shows an average 70% effectiveness in preventing the virus: AstraZeneca on Monday said an interim analysis of clinical trials showed its coronavirus vaccine has an average efficacy of 70% in protecting against the virus. → https://is.gd/OsBw96	10:20
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express (Health): Fitness: Milind Soman runs 21 km marathon amid pandemic with wife Ankita, mother Usha → https://is.gd/kXCJXq	10:34
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: China tests millions after coronavirus flareups in 3 cities: Chinese authorities are testing millions of people, imposing lockdowns and shutting down schools after multiple locally transmitted coronavirus cases were discovered in three cities across the country last week. → https://is.gd/Yg0Flb	10:49
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: (news): Euro zone business activity shrinks to six-month low after new coronavirus lockdowns → https://is.gd/Xojl8U	11:02
Brainstorm	New from NPR: Jaclyn Diaz: Angela Merkel Raises Concern Over Coronavirus Vaccine Plan For Poorer Countries → https://is.gd/RNAQoL	11:18
CoronaBot	04/r/covid19: AZD1222 vaccine met primary efficacy endpoint in preventing COVID-19 (82 votes) \| https://www.astrazeneca.com/content/astraz/media-centre/press-releases/2020/azd1222hlr.html \| https://redd.it/jzd0wp	11:33
joerg	euod[m]: :-D	11:33
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: (news): Germany looks set to extend lockdown into December as infections remain high → https://is.gd/9673CP	11:35
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Researchers create 3-D-printed nasal swab for COVID-19 testing: In response to the critical shortage of nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs early in the COVID-19 pandemic, the Department of Radiology at University of South Florida (USF) Health in Tampa set out to design, validate and create NP swabs using a point-of-care 3-D printer. [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/thvlh6	11:47
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: EU regulator could approve Covid vaccines 'late 2020, early 2021': Europe's medicines regulator said Monday that it could approve the first coronavirus vaccines late this year or early next, as it evaluates the most promising candidates. → https://is.gd/z9vnc6	11:59
Brainstorm	New from BMJ: Covid-19: Should the UK mandate more stringent workplace protection for older people?: The importance of ensuring the United Kingdom’s national economy is kept functioning during the covid-19 pandemic has been heavily emphasised.12 Paid employment is a key factor in any economy, and... → https://is.gd/NVAuil	12:19
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid vaccine shows an average 70% effectiveness in preventing the virus: AstraZeneca on Monday said an interim analysis of clinical trials showed its coronavirus vaccine has an average efficacy of 70% in protecting against the virus. → https://is.gd/OsBw96	12:24
Brainstorm	Updates for Switzerland: +9751 cases (now 300352), +44 deaths (now 4100) since 13 hours ago	12:37
Brainstorm	New from ECDC: Download the daily number of new reported cases of COVID-19 by country worldwide: The downloadable data file is updated daily and contains the latest available public data on COVID-19. You may use the data in line with ECDC’s copyright policy. → https://is.gd/zYsz7d	12:49
Brainstorm	Updates for US: +26852 cases (now 12.6 million), +177 deaths (now 262711) since 14 hours ago — Anguilla: +1 cases (now 4) since 4 months ago — Gibraltar: +1 deaths (now 5) since 14 hours ago — Liechtenstein: +44 cases (now 1156), +4 deaths (now 12) since 14 hours ago	12:52
CoronaBot	04/r/covid19: What the data say about asymptomatic COVID infections (80 votes) \| https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03141-3 \| https://redd.it/jz87nd	12:57
Brainstorm	Updates for Germany: +1188 cases (now 933164), +8 deaths (now 14351) since 14 hours ago	13:06
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: Merck acquires OncoImmune to ramp supply of promising Covid drug: The medicine, CD24Fc, was shown to reduce the risk of respiratory failure or death by more than 50% in patients hospitalized with Covid and requiring oxygen → https://is.gd/keqOAX	13:25
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid vaccine shows an average 70% effectiveness in preventing the virus: AstraZeneca on Monday said an interim analysis of clinical trials showed its coronavirus vaccine has an average efficacy of 70% in protecting against the virus. → https://is.gd/OsBw96	13:37
Brainstorm	Updates for Palestine: +1552 cases (now 73196), +9 deaths (now 645) since 15 hours ago	13:37
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 are detected up to 3 months after infection: A new study in health care workers led by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) shows that IgA and IgM antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 decay quickly, while IgG antibody levels are maintained for at least three months after infection. The longer [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/ZnXz5k	13:50
Brainstorm	Updates for Laos: +14 cases (now 39) since 5 days ago	13:52
Brainstorm	Updates for Netherlands: +4444 cases (now 489818), +36 deaths (now 8945) since 16 hours ago	14:37
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: 5 things to know before the stock market opens Monday: U.S. stock futures rose Monday, supported by positive Covid-19 vaccine data from AstraZeneca and FDA emergency approval for Regeneron's antibody treatment. → https://is.gd/YpwL0s	14:40
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: UK expected to announce it will lift lockdown soon — with conditions: U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to announce Monday that a nationwide lockdown in England will be lifted in early December. → https://is.gd/xDznjC	14:52
Brainstorm	New from In The Pipeline: Oxford/AZ Vaccine Efficacy Data: As of this morning, we have a first look at the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine’s efficacy in clinical trials via press releases from both organizations. The number in the headlines says about 70% efficacy, but there’s more to the story. Here’s the landscape so far: we have results from Pfizer [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/OHxY2u	15:05
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: (news): Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid vaccine shows an average 70% effectiveness in preventing the virus → https://is.gd/OsBw96	15:17
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: World's top surgical glove maker shuts factories due to coronavirus: A Malaysian company that is the world's biggest manufacturer of surgical gloves will close over half of its factories after a surge in coronavirus cases among workers, authorities said Monday. → https://is.gd/1kf5LX	15:30
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Why we need multiple vaccines for COVID-19: The preliminary data shared by Pfizer-BioNTech and Sputnik V last week, and Moderna this week, showing their vaccines to be more than 90% effective, has given us all hope that an end to COVID-19 may be in sight. → https://is.gd/s6rkgK	16:21
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Physio, chiro, osteo and myo: What's the difference and which one should I get?: Many of us might not be as fit as we were before the pandemic hit, and as community sport restarts and gyms reopen across the country amid eased coronavirus restrictions, some people might be at increased risk of injury. → https://is.gd/F2GjdH	16:34
Brainstorm	Updates for Virginia, US: +3242 cases (now 221038), +4 deaths (now 3942) since 18 hours ago — Canada: +2487 cases (now 332092), +23 deaths (now 11474) since 18 hours ago	16:37
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: For loved ones in long-term care, a phone call speaks volumes: Isolated, lonely and fearful, many older Americans living in long-term care facilities have struggled during the coronavirus pandemic—especially when in-person visits from loved ones are not allowed. → https://is.gd/ryFn6I	16:47
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: UK's Boris Johnson confirms end of lockdown on Dec. 2 — with conditions: U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson confirmed on Monday that a nationwide lockdown in England will be lifted in early December. → https://is.gd/xDznjC	16:59
rpifan	oh	17:00
rpifan	end of lockdown	17:00
rpifan	bad	17:00
blkshp	It was only ever supposed to be 1 month,	17:02
rpifan	ohh	17:09
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Astra/Oxford seek coronavirus vaccine approval after 'effective' trials: British drugs group AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford said on Monday they will seek regulatory approval for their coronavirus vaccine after "effective" trials, in the latest potential boost to curbing the global outbreak. → https://is.gd/sKAA06	17:12
Brainstorm	Updates for Italy: +22927 cases (now 1.4 million), +630 deaths (now 50453) since 19 hours ago	17:20
Brainstorm	New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Angiotensin-converting Enzyme 2 (ACE2) Expression in Tonsils and Adenoids → https://is.gd/bcX090	17:24
CoronaBot	04/r/covid19: Oxford/AZ Vaccine Efficacy Data (80 votes) \| https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/11/23/oxford-az-vaccine-efficacy-data \| https://redd.it/jzi6py	17:35
CoronaBot	04/r/covid19: Vitamin D Mitigates COVID-19, Say 40+ Patient Studies (listed below) – Yet BAME, Elderly, Care-homers, and Obese are still ‘D’ deficient, thus at greater COVID-19 risk - WHY? (81 votes) \| https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3872/rr-5 \| https://redd.it/jzg0jx	17:35
LjL	Nice to see a bit of heated discussion on vit D	17:45
LjL	While less nice is the efficacy data from Oxford/AstraZeneca, despite 90% in one treatment regime...	17:49
LjL	"Now, I’ve seen people speculating this morning that these numbers may be better than they look, because they believe that these trials monitored patients by PCR tests rather than by symptoms. If that were the case, then yes, that’s a finer net than the Pfizer and Moderna trials used and it would certainly affect the efficacy readouts."	17:50
LjL	But finer net or not, it does boggle my mind why Modern and Pfizer didn't routinely PCR tests all participants. It can't have been so expensive. It is an omission that I find it hard not to attribute to some malice in the results they wanted to obtain.	17:51
Brainstorm	Updates for Germany: +6650 cases (now 938626), +63 deaths (now 14406) since 19 hours ago	17:52
LjL	14,99[16:40] 99,99 9,99Brainstorm:99,99 New99,99 from EuroNews:99,99 EU air quality improves, but number of deaths linked to air pollution still high:99,99 Air pollution has been on the decline over the past ten years, according to the latest figures from the European Environment Agency. However, air pollution caused the premature death of 379,000 people in the EU in 2018. → https://is.gd/Cb6KWC	17:59
LjL	These numbers look like the deniers may have a better argument if they say "it's just like pollution" than "it's just like the flu"	17:59
Brainstorm	Updates for United Kingdom: +15450 cases (now 1.5 million), +206 deaths (now 55230) since 19 hours ago — Arizona, US: +2659 cases (now 302324) since 19 hours ago	18:06
Brainstorm	Updates for Turkey: +6713 cases (now 453535), +153 deaths (now 12511) since 20 hours ago	18:20
LjL	%title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w	18:24
Brainstorm	LjL: From www.nature.com: Post-lockdown SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening in nearly ten million residents of Wuhan, China \| Nature Communications	18:24
LjL	they only found asymptomatic people when they mass-tested the city	18:24
LjL	which is interesting in itself, but they also didn't find that ANY of them infected someone else	18:24
LjL	but we know in other cases asymptomatic people CAN infect others	18:25
LjL	so it seems like a possibility that generally low viral loads cause a generally lower level epidemic	18:25
LjL	which might explain why the virus may already have been circulating in November or so, but obviously outbreaks only happened later, and also why after lockdowns, it took a couple of months to go back to exponential growth despite people going on holidays etc	18:26
LjL	de-facto ↑	18:26
Brainstorm	New from BBC Health: (news): Covid-19: Daily coronavirus test plan to cut contacts' 14-day self-isolation → https://is.gd/3pukDA	18:27
LjL	however, de-facto, tinwhiskers:	18:35
LjL	"Virus cultures were negative for all asymptomatic positive and repositive cases, indicating no “viable virus” in positive cases detected in this study."	18:35
LjL	"None of detected positive cases or their close contacts became symptomatic or newly confirmed with COVID-19 during the isolation period."	18:35
LjL	"Testing of antibody against SARS-CoV-2 virus was positive IgG (+) in 190 of the 300 asymptomatic cases, indicating that 63.3% (95% CI 57.6–68.8%) of asymptomatic positive cases were actually infected. The proportion of asymptomatic positive cases with both IgM (−) and IgG (−) was 36.7% (95% CI: 31.2–42.4%; n = 110), indicating the possibility of infection window or false positive results of the nucleic acid testing (Table 2)."	18:35
LjL	"We found that asymptomatic positive rates in different districts of Wuhan were correlated with the prevalence of previously confirmed cases."	18:35
LjL	"This study has several limitations that need to be discussed. First, this was a cross-sectional screening programme, and we are unable to assess the changes over time in asymptomatic positive and reoperative results."	18:35
LjL	"This is in line with the temporal and spatial evolution (especially the long-tailed characteristic) of infectious diseases."	18:35
LjL	this is all kinda suggestive of their 300 asymptomatic people actually having had COVID in the past and just having viral RNA lying around	18:35
LjL	"There were 34,424 previously recovered COVID-19 cases who participated in the screening. Of the 34,424 participants with a history of COVID-19, 107 tested positive again, giving a repositive rate of 0.310% (95% CI 0.423–0.574%)."	18:36
tinwhiskers	ah. so they were possibly looking at post-infection viral detritus?	18:37
tinwhiskers	still, they must have been infected	18:37
tinwhiskers	I missed the point there	18:37
LjL	or false positive of some kind	18:37
tinwhiskers	ah	18:37
LjL	tinwhiskers, they must have been infected at some point, but they may have long recovered	18:37
tinwhiskers	right	18:38
LjL	1) they ran antibody tests on these people and a high proportion didn't show antibodies	18:38
tinwhiskers	ohhh	18:38
LjL	2) they ran PCR on known-ex-positive people and a similar proportion as the "new asymptomatic" were still positive	18:38
tinwhiskers	300 cases from 10 million tests wouldn't be surprising for false positives.	18:39
tinwhiskers	in fact that'd be pretty damn good	18:40
LjL	tinwhiskers, my initial assumption was that they were bound to have tested them again and double checked given the small number	18:40
LjL	but... apparently they checked with antibody tests instead?	18:40
tinwhiskers	yeah, maybe	18:40
tinwhiskers	there's some surprising elements to this study which might mark the beginning of a new angle on what we knew or that there's something fishy.	18:41
tinwhiskers	it's an interesting one. breakfast.	18:42
LjL	"This study has several limitations that need to be discussed. First, this was a cross-sectional screening programme, and we are unable to assess the changes over time in asymptomatic positive and reoperative results."	18:42
LjL	this is one big limitation	18:42
tinwhiskers	yeah	18:42
tinwhiskers	still, many scientists would kill for such a cross-sectional study in their own country despite it being a snapshot.	18:44
LjL	would be easier if mefistofeles didn't mefistofeles didn't stay mad and away from the channel ;(	18:44
LjL	tinwhiskers, i guess, but it's a bit appalling that it was just a snapshot and they didn't follow up those 300 people. they tested TEN MILLION people... and then they couldn't follow up on 300?!	18:44
tinwhiskers	:-/	18:45
CoronaBot	04/r/coronavirus: Covid-19: Oxford University vaccine shows 70% protection (10056 votes) \| https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55040635 \| https://redd.it/jzcy2u	18:53
Brainstorm	Updates for Netherlands: +5270 cases (now 490644) since 20 hours ago	19:06
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: New insight into the effect of hydroxychloroquine undermines its use in COVID-19: Researchers at Radboud university medical center have discovered an as yet unknown effect of hydroxychloroquine. It inhibits the action of a type of white blood cells important in the first line of defense against infections. Based on this [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/qx5Y4V	19:16
genera	lol	19:17
snake	i kind of dont want to go to thanksgiving this year	19:18
snake	but i already told my mom i would come a few weeks ago	19:19
snake	and she's going to make pumpkin roll, and im gonna help	19:19
snake	so idk	19:19
Brainstorm	Updates for Spain: +17686 cases (now 1.6 million), +512 deaths (now 43131) since 3 days ago	19:20
snake	pumpkin roll is pretty fucking amazing	19:23
snake	idk if i can pass that up	19:23
snake	i got some at walmart that was super dry	19:23
snake	and too cold	19:23
Arsanerit	I tried to go to Walmart twice. Once it was closed. Another time it was open but I left within minutes.	19:26
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: (news): New York Gov. Cuomo reopens Covid field hospital in Staten Island as hospitalizations accelerate → https://is.gd/bK26Kd	19:28
LjL	de-facto, have you seen the AstraZeneca news?	19:36
LjL	"The pooled efficacy data yields the average efficacy at around 70 percent. This is impressive, given a goal of around 50 percent." ← no the "goal" wasn't 50%, that was the minimum bar for the FDA to accept it...	19:37
Brainstorm	Updates for Rhode Island, US: +2572 cases (now 50573), +15 deaths (now 1309) since 3 days ago	19:37
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: (news): AstraZeneca's Covid vaccine might seem less effective than its peers — but it has some advantages → https://is.gd/WosoYB	19:41
LjL	funny how Ars Technica also just posted that it has some advantages	20:02
LjL	they really want it to have advantages!	20:02
LjL	i mean, storing at almost-room-temperatures helps, for sure	20:02
Brainstorm	Updates for Ohio, US: +11885 cases (now 363304), +24 deaths (now 6020) since 21 hours ago	20:06
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: (news): New York Gov. Cuomo reopens Covid field hospital in Staten Island as hospitalizations accelerate → https://is.gd/bK26Kd	20:06
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Italy's COVID-19 death toll tops 50,000: Italy, the first European country to be hit by the global coronavirus pandemic, on Monday passed the threshold of 50,000 deaths from COVID-19. → https://is.gd/5iae5F	20:30
de-facto	%title https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/11/23/oxford-az-vaccine-efficacy-data	20:33
Brainstorm	de-facto: From blogs.sciencemag.org: Oxford/AZ Vaccine Efficacy Data \| In the Pipeline	20:33
Brainstorm	Updates for Canada: +4222 cases (now 333827), +40 deaths (now 11495) since 22 hours ago	20:37
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: New York Gov. Cuomo reopens Covid field hospital in Staten Island as hospitalizations accelerate: New York will reopen a temporary field hospital on Staten Island to help treat an influx of coronavirus patients, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said on Monday. → https://is.gd/bK26Kd	20:42
de-facto	%title https://www.astrazeneca.com/content/astraz/media-centre/press-releases/2020/azd1222hlr.html	20:44
Brainstorm	de-facto: From www.astrazeneca.com: AZD1222 vaccine met primary efficacy endpoint in preventing COVID-19	20:44
de-facto	"One dosing regimen (n=2,741) showed vaccine efficacy of 90% when AZD1222 was given as a half dose, followed by a full dose at least one month apart, and another dosing regimen (n=8,895) showed 62% efficacy when given as two full doses at least one month apart. The combined analysis from both dosing regimens (n=11,636) resulted in an average efficacy of 70%. All results were statistically significant (p<=0.0001)."	20:44
de-facto	hmm that sounds pretty good, yet id like to known how many cases were observed in the half-dose then full-dose regimen	20:47
de-facto	i.e. how statistically significant those 90% are	20:47
de-facto	"An independent Data Safety Monitoring Board determined that the analysis met its primary endpoint showing protection from COVID-19 occurring 14 days or more after receiving two doses of the vaccine. No serious safety events related to the vaccine have been confirmed. AZD1222 was well tolerated across both dosing regimens."	20:49
de-facto	"The pooled analysis included data from the COV002 Phase II/III trial in the UK and COV003 Phase III trial in Brazil. Over 23,000 participants are being assessed following two doses of either a half-dose/full-dose regimen or a regimen of two full doses of AZD1222 or a comparator, meningococcal conjugate vaccine called MenACWY or saline. The global trials are evaluating participants aged 18 years or over from diverse racial and geographic	20:50
de-facto	groups who are healthy or have stable underlying medical conditions."	20:50
de-facto	"COV002 is a single-blinded, multi-centre, randomised, controlled Phase II/III trial assessing the safety, efficacy and immunogenicity of AZD1222 in 12,390 participants in the UK."	20:51
de-facto	"Suspected cases presenting with compatible symptoms were tested for virological confirmation by COVID-19 PCR. In addition, weekly swabbing are done for detection of infection and assessment of vaccine efficacy against infection."	20:51
de-facto	"COV003 is a single-blinded, multi-centre, randomised, controlled Phase III trial assessing the safety, efficacy, and immunogenicity of AZD1222 in 10,300 participants in Brazil."	20:52
de-facto	"Participants have blood samples drawn and clinical assessments for safety as well as immunogenicity at multiple timepoints up to one year post-vaccination. Suspected cases presenting with compatible symptoms were tested for virological confirmation by COVID-19 PCR."	20:53
de-facto	%title https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-11-23-oxford-university-breakthrough-global-covid-19-vaccine#	20:54
Brainstorm	de-facto: From www.ox.ac.uk: Oxford University breakthrough on global COVID-19 vaccine \| University of Oxford	20:54
LjL	de-facto, yeah i'd like to know the significance of the 90% but also, this does point to the fact we become immune to the adenovirus, and that's just kinda going to be a problem	20:57
de-facto	Yeah thats what Derek Lowe suspects	20:59
de-facto	"My own wild guess is that perhaps the two-full-dose protocol raised too many antibodies to the adenovirus vector itself, and made the second dose less effective. This has always been a concern with the viral-vector idea."	20:59
de-facto	yet he also says:	20:59
de-facto	"there’s always the outside nasty chance that the smaller N in the 90% group is giving a number that won’t hold up. I would hope this isn’t the case, but without a better look at the statistics, it’s not possible to rule that out."	20:59
de-facto	another interesting point i found in above cites: "COV002 ... In addition, weekly swabbing are done for detection of infection and assessment of vaccine efficacy against infection."	21:00
de-facto	then in the Oxford University article "Early indication that vaccine could reduce virus transmission from an observed reduction in asymptomatic infections"	21:01
Aurorium[m]	Is there any other source of review than Oxford University?	21:02
LjL	de-facto, ah right, as i said (perhaps elsewhere), i keep finding it absurd that Pfizer and Moderna didn't screen everybody with PCR but only picked up symptomatic people. that seems like a suspicious way to raise the numbers to me.	21:02
de-facto	Aurorium[m], i don't think so, its just press releases by the inventors and manufacturers yet	21:03
LjL	Aurorium[m], hmm? it's just a press release from them	21:03
de-facto	we will need to wait for that	21:03
LjL	there are discussions on the press release, but there is not a study out	21:03
de-facto	but Derek Lowe always is writing about the newest data and developments on his blog https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/11/23/oxford-az-vaccine-efficacy-data	21:03
de-facto	yeah no study published yet so far	21:04
Aurorium[m]	Do you trust them?	21:04
de-facto	LjL, well AstraZeneca did the same except for those weekly swabs there	21:04
LjL	de-facto, isn't that quite a difference?	21:05
LjL	Aurorium[m], do we have a choice? we only have data from the vaccine manufacturers for ALL vaccines	21:05
de-facto	possibly, id like to see the data myself	21:05
LjL	namely Pfizer, Moderna and Oxford being the ones with efficacy data out	21:05
LjL	de-facto, i mean if you swab everyone on a weekly basis, you will find asymptomatic cases. on the other hand if you don't do that, and your vaccine just so happens NOT to stop asymptomatic cases, you won't catch them even though they exist	21:06
LjL	even before now i found it a puzzling decision that they wouldn't spend the money to PCR test everyone in the study on a regular basis	21:06
LjL	it just seems like such an obviously important thing to do to keep everything under some control	21:07
de-facto	yeah thats exactly what i am saying since months, they should accompany all their trials with screenings for asymptomatic cases	21:07
de-facto	so maybe only AstraZeneca was confident enough to do that, not fearing it may destroy their efficiency data?	21:08
Aurorium[m]	LjL: I was just curious how matrix community reacts to vaccines. This virus don't seems to be deadly that much as we expected, why would we vaccinate ourselves for that.	21:08
de-facto	did they even include those asymptomatic cases in their statistics?	21:08
LjL	Aurorium[m], well we're not on Matrix so there is that	21:08
LjL	the virus is quite deadly for all i can see	21:08
LjL	and why we wouldn't vaccinate ourselves... that is mind-boggling that you would even ask that	21:09
LjL	have you, like some other weirdos, somehow failed to notice the complete overloading of hospitals in various countries worldwide?	21:09
Aurorium[m]	Yeah you can see it, but only in statistics.	21:09
LjL	how people who can barely breathe are lying down in corridors because there are no beds?	21:09
LjL	no you can see it in hospitals	21:09
LjL	jesus christ	21:09
LjL	just because you cannot see it in your living room if you don't look, doesn't mean you don't need a vaccine	21:10
de-facto	ask someone working in a hospital, they will tell you that they are near their capacity to be overwhelmed or already on emergency reserves	21:10
Aurorium[m]	I talked to many people, including doctors and nurses. In Poland deaths lately increased because of healthcare paralysis, not because of COVID, just FYI	21:13
LjL	%title https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ts8X3HDtPE somewhat relevant also	21:13
Brainstorm	LjL: From www.youtube.com: Doctor Shares The Biggest Lie About COVID-19 \| UK Data - YouTube	21:13
LjL	Aurorium[m], oh that's good to know, then i guess Poland doesn't need the COVID recovery fund and we can stop arguing about whether it needs to be tied to respecting rule of law or not, Poland can just not get it	21:14
LjL	that's one hurdle over	21:14
Aurorium[m]	@lj	21:15
Aurorium[m]	LjL: Where are you from?	21:15
LjL	Milan, Italy.	21:15
Aurorium[m]	So you better take care about your country bro. I don't know why you are so aggressive.	21:16
LjL	1) i'm not your bro	21:18
LjL	2) because you're saying idiotic things that are obviously contrary to clear reality in countries such as mine (maybe not yet yours)	21:18
Brainstorm	New from BBC Health: Covid-19: Oxford University vaccine is highly effective: The vaccine is cheaper than other options and easier to distribute around the world. → https://is.gd/dmIkO9	21:19
LjL	Aurorium[m], have you had a look at data/graphs of excess deaths during Spring in countries that were heavily affected by COVID? also consider if the excess deaths seem short-lived (though very high), those countries locked themselves down and then the deaths went down.	21:20
Aurorium[m]	Yeah, in third-world countries like Italy you might have "only one and obvious truth"	21:20
euod[m]	Aurorium: dude fuck off.	21:20
LjL	euod[m], don't worry, he will	21:20
euod[m]	I don't know why there's so many people around being just obtusely unhelpful.	21:23
de-facto	https://www.statista.com/statistics/1103737/poland-people-hospitalised-for-suspected-of-coronavirus-covid-19/	21:23
de-facto	http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Poland&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&miscType=Reff&miscSource=Deaths	21:23
LjL	well look at Poland's government, which was elected by people	21:23
LjL	i don't know why either, but their existence and dangerous closeness to majority is very worrisome	21:24
de-facto	so clearly Poland got a healthcare crisis too, onslaught of COVID-19 cases in hospitals and ICU beds and fatalities on the exponential raise, like in many other European countries	21:25
euod[m]	I can only assume the peak of that graph is due to capacity, not lack of cases?	21:25
de-facto	hence we need solidarity an cohesion to work together on a solution	21:25
euod[m]	at some point the only graphs you can draw a conclusion to is deaths, as it has no bias towards amount of testing or medical capacity. assuming they're being reported correctly.	21:26
de-facto	note: at the tail of graphs there always is a reporting delay to be take into account	21:26
de-facto	oh he already left, oh well	21:27
LjL	euod[m], i don't know, in this version of the graph http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Poland&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&miscType=Reff&miscSource=Deaths&legacy=no you can see the amount of testing, and it has kinda gone down a bit in the past few days, but that graph is all sorts of glitchy	21:27
LjL	de-facto, yes, he... "left"	21:27
LjL	little known fact: mutes on Matrix aren't actually bridged over as quites on IRC	21:27
LjL	quiets*	21:27
LjL	i am up to being called a third-wold country, but not by a Pole after all the fucked up shit that the Polish government has been pulling	21:28
euod[m]	LjL: unfortunately all of this data is extremely noisy, it's hard to know what's an artifact and what is a genuine change. the weekend bias towards less cases is very obvious in all of it however.	21:29
de-facto	clicking the "positivity" checkbox shows no decline though	21:29
de-facto	i meant "Positive test rate"	21:30
de-facto	and Reff~1.3 on deaths	21:30
euod[m]	I'm not sure how meaningful that data type is unless you're doing random sampling of the population. there's such a huge bias in the sorts of people who would get tested versus the normal population. in the US for example it's almost entirely going to be based on political affliction.	21:30
de-facto	so that indicates its not under control at all	21:31
de-facto	euod[m], yeah good point its always an open question how much targeted testing decoupled from real incidence	21:31
LjL	euod[m], yeah if only de-facto had thought about randomly sampling the population	21:31
euod[m]	I'm mostly being whimsical about perfect data. clearly we've got to make the best of what information we have.	21:32
genera	you can sample sewer water	21:32
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: India first priority for vaccine delivery: Serum Institute: India will be given first priority for the delivery of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine after its British developers claimed success following mass testing, the world's largest vaccine manufacturer by volume said Monday. → https://is.gd/CXh258	21:32
de-facto	yeah im telling this for months: dedicate 1% testing capacity to representative random sampling and also do screening on vaccine trials	21:32
de-facto	the Brits have done something like that at least a bit in their RECOVERY trials and maybe also in the Oxford/AstraZeneca trial cited above	21:33
Arsanerit	Is 1% enough?	21:33
LjL	India is a good candidate for the AZ vaccine due to its easier transportability	21:34
genera	with regular testing at 10^6 per week..	21:34
de-facto	i dont know it depends on how large the population is relative to testing capacity available	21:35
Brainstorm	Updates for Netherlands: +5272 cases (now 490646) since 23 hours ago	21:37
de-facto	oh correction the name of the study in UK is REACT https://www.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/research-and-impact/groups/react-study/real-time-assessment-of-community-transmission-findings/	21:40
de-facto	%title	21:40
Brainstorm	de-facto: From www.imperial.ac.uk: Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission findings \| Faculty of Medicine \| Imperial College London	21:40
de-facto	https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/83912/2/REACT-1_Full-text.pdf	21:48
de-facto	"Our national prevalence estimate of 1.3% translates to around 1 million infections in England on any one day, assuming sensitivity to detect the virus from a nose and throat swab of around 75% [15]. If we assume that shedding of the virus is detectable for 10 days on average, this would translate to around 100,000 new infections per day at the end of October with a range from 90,000 to 104,000 (reflecting the 95% confidence intervals in	21:50
de-facto	weighted national prevalence)."	21:50
de-facto	that would mean 4-5 times the case numbers reported by targeted tests	21:51
de-facto	pretty realistic in my opinion	21:51
de-facto	for their round 6b 2020-10-26 - 2020-11-2 74210 swabs with 869 positive hence 1.17% or 1.32% weighted indicating an Reff~0.85 with a halfing time of ~28.4 days	21:55
Brainstorm	New from PLOS ONE: Inferior vagal ganglion galaninergic response to gastric ulcers: by Michal Zalecki, Judyta Juranek, Zenon Pidsudko, Marzena Mogielnicka-Brzozowska, Jerzy Kaleczyc, Amelia Franke-Radowiecka Galanin is a neuropeptide widely expressed in central and peripheral nerves and is known to be engaged in neuronal responses to pathological [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/Bk19je	22:10
Brainstorm	Updates for Connecticut, US: +5271 cases (now 106740) since 2 days ago	22:22
Brainstorm	Updates for Canada: +4335 cases (now 334838), +59 deaths (now 11514) since 22 hours ago	22:36
Brainstorm	New from CNBC Health: (news): Doctors say CDC should warn people the side effects from Covid vaccine shots won't be 'a walk in the park' → https://is.gd/hRkahV	23:24
Brainstorm	Updates for Switzerland: +122 deaths (now 4222) since 11 hours ago	23:36

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