| Brainstorm | Updates for Sudan: +540 cases (now 17404), +20 deaths (now 1235) since 2 days ago — Netherlands: +4527 cases (now 514573) since 23 hours ago | 00:23 |
|---|---|---|
| Brainstorm | Updates for Uruguay: +208 cases (now 5511), +1 deaths (now 75) since 23 hours ago — Mali: +92 cases (now 4659) since 22 hours ago | 00:37 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +8065 cases (now 365153), +102 deaths (now 11976) since 23 hours ago | 00:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Quebec breaks record for new COVID-19 cases as number of deaths surpasses 7,000 → https://is.gd/QvF1gJ | 00:58 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +12573 cases (now 2.2 million) since a day ago | 01:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Jason Kenney says COVID-19 vaccination will not be mandatory in Alberta → https://is.gd/bG0UdM | 01:48 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Curacao: +101 cases (now 2258), +1 deaths (now 4) since a day ago | 02:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: US is 'rounding the corner into a calamity,' expert says, with Covid-19 deaths projected to double soon → https://is.gd/Up1KVj | 02:36 |
| kara[m] | LjL: Arsanerit , the rational for vitamin D, many people have deficiencies in vit d so that should help improve immune function by reducing deficiency | 02:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: UK police arrest 155 in anti-lockdown protests in London → https://is.gd/AxnUuO | 03:25 |
| lesmo | %cases Mexico | 03:37 |
| Brainstorm | lesmo: In Mexico, there have been 1.1 million confirmed cases (0.9% of the population) and 105459 deaths (9.6% of cases) as of an hour ago. 2.8 million tests were performed (38.6% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.2% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 11.3% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Mexico for time series data. | 03:37 |
| lesmo | %cases India | 03:38 |
| Brainstorm | lesmo: In India, there have been 9.4 million confirmed cases (0.7% of the population) and 136705 deaths (1.5% of cases) as of 9 hours ago. 138.2 million tests were performed (6.8% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.1% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 1.5% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=India for time series data. | 03:38 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +3619 cases (now 574448), +122 deaths (now 16461) since a day ago | 04:51 |
| gigasu_shida | which country is faring the worst? | 04:53 |
| de-facto | gigasu_shida, look at http://metrics.covid19-analysis.org/ | 04:59 |
| de-facto | hint: comparison is difficult because testing depends on targeting strategy, fatalities on criteria to account it to COVID (though thats already less biased than testing strategies) and Rt (reproduction) is relative to direct past (hence only depends on changes in testing strategies and of course new cases). for any comparison the normalized numbers (e.g. per 1M citizens or per 100k citizens) are the most comparable among countries (with | 05:09 |
| de-facto | the aforementioned restrictions) | 05:09 |
| gigasu_shida | which country appears to be farthest from peaking during this second wave | 05:09 |
| euod[m] | some are arguably in their third. | 05:09 |
| gigasu_shida | whoa why does Turkey have a much higher effective Rt factor? | 05:10 |
| de-facto | gigasu_shida, the ones with biggest increase in case numbers i would guess (biggest Rt values with biggest incidence per 1M people) | 05:10 |
| euod[m] | the US for example kind of is? the first peak is in April, second in August, third now. | 05:10 |
| gigasu_shida | oh i didn't know about the August peak | 05:10 |
| gigasu_shida | wave* | 05:10 |
| de-facto | yeah Turkey looks like its having a HUGE peak, not sure if they changed testing or if thats real incidence (that would be crazy indeed) | 05:10 |
| de-facto | definitely needs further investigation | 05:10 |
| gigasu_shida | italy's peak appears to be already past | 05:11 |
| gigasu_shida | past them | 05:11 |
| gigasu_shida | whereas the US wave hasn't clearly peaked yet | 05:11 |
| de-facto | all blueish shades are past their peak (their Rt < 1) | 05:11 |
| gigasu_shida | damn i really wish we didn't have that dang Thanksgiving holiday | 05:11 |
| de-facto | yellow is like endemic (no change R~1) | 05:12 |
| de-facto | orange and redish colors are in the raise out of control (R>1) | 05:12 |
| gigasu_shida | oh is that how it is | 05:12 |
| de-facto | yeah, Rt i meant | 05:12 |
| gigasu_shida | i didn't Rt being less than 1 would equate to "being past the peak" | 05:13 |
| euod[m] | 19 day latency means we should expect the "thanksgiving" peak deaths to be on december the 15th. | 05:13 |
| gigasu_shida | i didn't think* | 05:13 |
| de-facto | its the reproduction number between two generations (separated by the duration of one serial time t_serial = 5.2 days): for example assume at time t there would be N(t)=120 positive tests compared to N(t-t_serial)=100 that caused them one serial time in the past hence we have Rt = N(t) / N(t - t_serial) = 120 / 100 = 1.2 | 05:15 |
| gigasu_shida | what's a serial time? | 05:18 |
| gigasu_shida | is it related to the dormancy of the virus? | 05:18 |
| de-facto | the time between two constitutive generations in an infection chain, basically the average duration between symptom onset of a carrier and the one that got infected from the carrier | 05:19 |
| gigasu_shida | ok so it's influenced by many things | 05:20 |
| de-facto | so for one generation time t_serial the cases are N(t) = N(t - t_serial) * Rt, for two serial times it would be N(t) = N(t - 2 * t_serial) * Rt = ( N(t - t_serial) * Rt ) * Rt = N(t - t_serial) * Rt^2 = N(t - t_serial) * Rt^(t / t_serial) | 05:20 |
| gigasu_shida | is that exponential growth? | 05:22 |
| gigasu_shida | sorry my math sucks | 05:22 |
| de-facto | yes its exponential growth | 05:22 |
| gigasu_shida | oh wait, i see in the final statement the "^" symbol which means exponential growth | 05:22 |
| de-facto | keep in mind that incidence (daily additional new cases) is the time derivative of accumulated total cases, for Rt>1 incidence grows exponentially with time (as do total cases), for Rt=1 incidence is endemic (constant with time, hence total cases grow by a constant factor per day or "linear"), for Rt<1 its exponential decay of incidence (hence total cases approaching a "limit" or saturation that becomes constant once incidence reached | 05:25 |
| de-facto | zero daily new cases change) | 05:25 |
| gigasu_shida | so that's the official definition of "endemic" | 05:28 |
| gigasu_shida | endemic means Rt = 1 | 05:28 |
| de-facto | yeah the final statement can be formulated for arbitrary time periods between current incidence N(t0) and incidence for a duration t into the past N(t0 -t) hence would give N(t0) = N(t0 - t) * Rt^((t - t0) / t_serial) basically "how many generations" ((t - t0) / t_serial) the starting incidence N(t0 - t) was allowed to replicate with assumed constant Rt over that time period | 05:29 |
| de-facto | gigasu_shida, exactly | 05:29 |
| de-facto | endemic would be steady state of daily new infections, hence linear raise of total cases | 05:29 |
| de-facto | that is the point of "herd immunity": assuming a naive totally susceptible (no immunity) population would have a reproduction of R0 and assuming further a part v got vaccinated with an efficacy e of the vaccine to prevent transmission to fully susceptible (from vaccinated carriers) one would assume an endemic state R0 * (1 - v * e) == 1 (point of no change in incidence even if population would ignore distancing) | 05:32 |
| gigasu_shida | so to really clamp down on the virus you need Rt below one for quite a while | 05:32 |
| gigasu_shida | assuming we are far from herd immunity still | 05:33 |
| de-facto | so solving that for the part of vaccinated among such a population one would get v = (R0 - 1) / ( e * R0) | 05:33 |
| de-facto | yes gigasu_shida thats exactly the idea, force Rt below 1 so daily new infections decline, active carriers decline and at some point it becomes controllable by contact tracing again | 05:34 |
| gigasu_shida | damnit man, we are so far from it being controllable by contact-tracing | 05:36 |
| de-facto | once herd immunity is reached by vaccination the "worst case" is endemic, hence with a constant daily number of new infections the group of immune people may raise and therefore the local epidemic would be forced below endemic (into a decline, the contagion just cant produce "enough" carriers anymore because there are too many already immune in the population) | 05:38 |
| gigasu_shida | oh now i get it | 05:42 |
| gigasu_shida | now i get why herd immunity can happen with only a fraction of the population immune | 05:42 |
| gigasu_shida | because over time more become immune from that point on | 05:43 |
| de-facto | yes exactly | 05:43 |
| gigasu_shida | and it's the point at which Rt has to be below 1 from then on | 05:43 |
| gigasu_shida | btw we usually say "rise", not "raise", in that situation | 05:44 |
| de-facto | the transmission scenarios are still exactly the same (when people dont care about containment anymore), but the probability of encountering a susceptible (not immune) citizen is lowered by (1 - v*e) or 100% minus the effective immunity = v * e for example 75% * 80% or such | 05:45 |
| de-facto | So for vaccination efficiency being e = {70%, 80%, 90%} one would require for an assumed reproductin R0 = {2.5, 3.0, 3.5} a part of vaccinated v = {85%, 95%, impossible} (e = 70%), v = { 75%, 83%, 89% } (e = 80%) and v = {66%, 74%, 79%) (e = 90%) to approach that desired endemic flippoint | 05:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from This Week In Virology: TWiV 687: Peter Hotez sticks to the vax: Peter Hotez joins TWiV to discuss the COVID-19 pandemic, including why it went out of control in the US, the hijacking of public health practices by anti-science extremist groups, prospects for control, and whether we will be prepared for the next one. → https://is.gd/2ALswI | 06:15 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: First doses of Pfizer coronavirus vaccine has flown to US from Belgium. (10171 votes) | https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/first-doses-of-pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine-has-flown-to-us-from-belgium-report/ar-BB1bs6Fc | https://redd.it/k2z0qt | 06:36 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Latin America’s embrace of an unproven COVID treatment is hindering drug trials (80 votes) | https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02958-2 | https://redd.it/k30m2q | 06:48 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Ukraine: +16585 cases (now 728834), +193 deaths (now 12485) since a day ago — Japan: +2679 cases (now 145457) since a day ago — Germany: +13845 cases (now 1.1 million) since a day ago — Curacao, Netherlands: +101 cases (now 2258), +1 deaths (now 4) since a day ago | 07:05 |
| metreo | .cases canada | 07:15 |
| Brainstorm | metreo: In Canada, there have been 365123 confirmed cases (1.0% of the population) and 11976 deaths (3.3% of cases) as of 6 hours ago. 11.3 million tests were performed (3.2% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.0% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.9% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Canada for time series data. | 07:15 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil: +8538 cases (now 412308), +49 deaths (now 9452) since 23 hours ago — Mexico City, Mexico: +8420 cases (now 204448), +1861 deaths (now 17484) since 2 days ago — Saint Petersburg, Russia: +3695 cases (now 118515), +70 deaths (now 5350) since 23 hours ago — Kiev, Ukraine: +1739 cases (now 67278), +15 deaths (now 1268) since 23 hours ago | 07:22 |
| Brainstorm | New preprint: Effect of RBD mutation (Y453F) in spike glycoprotein of SARS-CoV-2 on neutralizing antibody affinity by Takma Hayashi et al, published on 2020-11-28 at https://biorxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.11.27.401893 | 07:26 |
| de-facto[m] | %title https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/infections-rise-as-turkey-resumes-publishing-all-positive-coronavirus-cases-160351 | 07:34 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto[m]: From www.hurriyetdailynews.com: Infections rise as Turkey resumes publishing all positive virus cases - Turkey News | 07:34 |
| de-facto[m] | Hence resumed reporting positive tested asymptomatic in contrast to just symptomatic positive before | 07:35 |
| de-facto[m] | explains part of their peak, yet hospitalizations also rise | 07:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: 'Vaccination passport' for tourists who have had a COVID-19 shot is in development → https://is.gd/N7OyCQ | 07:40 |
| de-facto[m] | %title https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Turkey | 07:41 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto[m]: From en.m.wikipedia.org: COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey - Wikipedia | 07:41 |
| de-facto[m] | See section statistics | 07:43 |
| de-facto[m] | So Turkey got a rise but not a gigantic peak in Reproduction, thats due to their switching to release proper testing data | 07:46 |
| gigasu_shida | interesting | 07:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Singaporean gives birth to baby with COVID-19 antibodies: Report → https://is.gd/2LB2V6 | 08:04 |
| NeponIRC | Hello! | 08:42 |
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| NeponIRC | ዘቿረረ | 08:44 |
| NeponIRC | ዘቿረረ | 08:44 |
| NeponIRC | ዘቿረረ | 08:44 |
| NeponIRC | ልልልልልልልልልል ክዐ! ክዐ!!! ክዐዐዐዐዐዐዐዐዐዐዐዐዐ! | 08:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: US Operation Warp Speed backed vaccines for whole world → https://is.gd/jolgdN | 08:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: UK secures 2 mln more doses of Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine → https://is.gd/g4KYQQ | 09:31 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Hungary: +6819 cases (now 211527), +156 deaths (now 4672) since a day ago — Indonesia: +6267 cases (now 534266), +169 deaths (now 16815) since 23 hours ago | 09:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: A year after Wuhan alarm, China seeks to change Covid origin story → https://is.gd/ySWEBo | 10:07 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +35 deaths (now 4631) since 22 hours ago | 10:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: The mink link: How COVID-19 mutations in animals affect human health and vaccine effectiveness → https://is.gd/OWQIg7 | 11:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Singaporean gives birth to baby with COVID-19 antibodies: report → https://is.gd/zNPWE4 | 11:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: More than 150 anti-lockdown, anti-vaccine protesters arrested in London → https://is.gd/5kMgDx | 11:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Coronavirus updates: US surpasses record 200K daily cases; Colorado Gov. tests positive; NFL orders shutdown of team facilities → https://is.gd/Wk99Xi | 12:33 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for US: +157527 cases (now 13.6 million), +1239 deaths (now 272269) since 22 hours ago | 13:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Covid-19: Don't 'take brakes off' Covid measures, says leading scientist → https://is.gd/b9tpBe | 13:58 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +198 deaths (now 16391) since 23 hours ago | 14:08 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +5585 cases (now 518910) since a day ago | 14:22 |
| Synapsestorm | ❗ 地震预警 / EARTHQUAKE WARNING for Taiwan (felt near Fengyuan?) — Follow for updates (www.kmoni.bosai.go.jp) | 14:43 |
| joerg | ARRRGH, watching earthquake live | 14:44 |
| zutt | %cases australia | 14:45 |
| Brainstorm | zutt: In Australia, there have been 27893 confirmed cases (0.1% of the population) and 907 deaths (3.3% of cases) as of 4 hours ago. 10.0 million tests were performed (0.3% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.3% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.4% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Australia for time series data. | 14:45 |
| zutt | %cases thailand | 14:45 |
| Brainstorm | zutt: In Thailand, there have been 3977 confirmed cases (0.0% of the population) and 60 deaths (1.5% of cases) as of 9 hours ago. 977854 tests were performed (0.4% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Thailand for time series data. | 14:45 |
| joerg | %cases taiwan | 14:53 |
| Brainstorm | joerg: In Taiwan, there have been 651 confirmed cases (0.0% of the population) and 7 deaths (1.1% of cases) as of 6 hours ago. 213696 tests were performed (0.3% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Taiwan for time series data. | 14:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Post - November 29 | Questions, images, videos, comments, unconfirmed reports, theories, suggestions → https://is.gd/R0Houq | 14:58 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +24 deaths (now 4645) since 21 hours ago | 15:11 |
| joerg | %cases china | 15:43 |
| Brainstorm | joerg: In China, there have been 90030 confirmed cases (0.0% of the population) and 4739 deaths (5.3% of cases) as of 4 hours ago. 160.0 million tests were performed (0.1% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.6% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 5.3% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=China for time series data. | 15:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid-19 claims life of Chicago-based Polish newsman Jan Krawiec, a Nazi foe and Auschwitz survivor → https://is.gd/YkpF4T | 16:50 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +20646 cases (now 1.6 million), +541 deaths (now 54904) since a day ago — United Kingdom: +12155 cases (now 1.6 million), +215 deaths (now 58245) since a day ago | 17:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: ‘Past a Point of No Return,’ According to British Journal Scientific Study on Climate Change; Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emission to Zero Still Will Not Stop Global Warming; Scientists See ‘an Acceleration of Pandemics’ → https://is.gd/Pqs9li | 17:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: How much did Thanksgiving contribute to Covid-19 spread? It’s wait and see for now: Thanksgiving is over, and health officials’ warnings that large celebrations could douse accelerant on the U.S. Covid-19 epidemic have passed. But it will take time to know whether their warnings… → https://is.gd/F9ON4H | 17:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Fauci says Christmas and New Year’s restrictions will be necessary due to holiday coronavirus wave → https://is.gd/PYxNkx | 18:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Fauci warns Americans to brace for 'surge upon surge' of virus: Americans should brace for a "surge upon a surge" in the coronavirus as millions of travelers return home after the Thanksgiving holiday, US government scientist Anthony Fauci said Sunday. → https://is.gd/aaPsln | 18:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Virus surge leads to curfew in San Francisco: A surge in coronavirus cases will put San Francisco under a curfew beginning on Monday and trigger other restrictions related to the virus, the city announced. → https://is.gd/icC5tM | 18:28 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Moderna Announces Amendment to Current Supply Agreement with United Kingdom Government for an Additional 2 Million Doses of mRNA Vaccine Against COVID-19 (mRNA-1273) (82 votes) | https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-amendment-current-supply-agreement-united/ | https://redd.it/k3c5gm | 18:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: A short guide to quarantining after holiday travel: If you traveled over the Thanksgiving holiday, it's time to go into quarantine. → https://is.gd/Yc5otW | 18:53 |
| LjL | haha sure, expect that from Americans | 18:53 |
| tinwhiskers | :-/ | 18:55 |
| bin_bash | it makes me so mad | 18:55 |
| bin_bash | as an American, I sacrifice a lot for myself and others | 18:56 |
| bin_bash | granted a lot for myself and my loved ones but for others too | 18:56 |
| ecks | To avoid potentially infecting the delivery person, have them leave your package outside your closed front door, wait for them to leave, and wear a mask when you open your door to pick it up. | 19:01 |
| ecks | lolwut | 19:02 |
| ecks | why would opening the door without a mask after the delivery person has left carry a risk of infection | 19:02 |
| ecks | america is obsessed with masks | 19:02 |
| euod[m] | the.. variability of the sensibility of advice is very strange. | 19:02 |
| euod[m] | everything from seeing people wearing the like, cow insemination gloves and a mask when driving, to people insisting that whatever nonsense they're doing is fine because they're exactly 6" apart. | 19:03 |
| euod[m] | the routes of transmission are now extremely well known. it’s not a mystery. | 19:05 |
| SphericalCow | :-O | 19:06 |
| euod[m] | SphericalCow: oh dude I'm sorry. | 19:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from CDC (old): Cases & Deaths by County: Find national and local rates for COVID cases and deaths in the United States. → https://is.gd/yJtqEF | 19:29 |
| LjL | ecks, euod[m] i don't know how well known they are to others, but as far as *i* know, the "fully airborne" route has not been ruled out, so i would also wear a mask in any environment where someone has just left. especially but not limited to elevators. anecdotically, i keep hearing about whole buildings here getting infected, while other buildings have no one infected. and it's really not like people here spend much time with their neighbors | 19:37 |
| euod[m] | huh, is it not a common assumption that completely airborne transmission is happening? | 19:39 |
| euod[m] | the only strange thing about "wear a mask when getting your package" to me is that I've never known anybody to run and go do that immediately. | 19:39 |
| euod[m] | front door camera says there's boxes for me, I might consider getting them today sometime. | 19:41 |
| tinwhiskers | I expect the advice is more general to include those who are less patient than you. | 19:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from "Cluster 5" on Wikipedia: Tenacioussquirrel: updated to reflect latest news: updated to reflect latest news ← Previous revision Revision as of 18:37, 29 November 2020 Line 12: Line 12: [[File:American Mink, Centre Island, Toronto, ON (9374114650).jpg|thumb|[[American mink]] (''Neovison vison'')]] [[File:American Mink, Centre Island, Toronto, [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/74bzDF | 19:41 |
| euod[m] | I'm just betting that people aren't less lazy than me. | 19:42 |
| tinwhiskers | Lots of people just can't wait to get their packages. | 19:42 |
| euod[m] | yeah probably not a good bet then. | 19:43 |
| LjL | euod[m], it might be signed for, everywhere is not like america | 19:45 |
| LjL | anyway i definitely assume completely airborne transmission is happening but i'm not sure i'd call that "common" | 19:45 |
| LjL | i'd say authorities in most countries still tend to act, speak and give advice as if it were *not* happening, and only bigger droplets and fomites were issues | 19:46 |
| LjL | then whether it's "common" to ignore them and be like yeah sure, i don't know, depends on how you define common. i bet the majority of people doesn't think it's all that airborne | 19:46 |
| euod[m] | most of the messaging I've seen focuses way too much on "6 foot" | 19:49 |
| euod[m] | when it's like, keep 6' minimum if you can't avoid it in any other way. | 19:49 |
| LjL | that's 1m here, so you're lucky | 19:49 |
| tinwhiskers | 1m is ridiculous | 19:49 |
| LjL | yes but that's not the message they actually give you. kids in school here can take off their masks if they're seated and the desks are 1m apart. | 19:49 |
| tinwhiskers | the rule may as well not exist at all | 19:50 |
| LjL | ridiculous, and also the WHO's official guidance. | 19:50 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +2778 cases (now 367931) since 19 hours ago | 19:50 |
| euod[m] | 1 meter is like, the minimum I'd stay away from people to begin with | 19:50 |
| euod[m] | italians in particular | 19:50 |
| LjL | try that on the metro | 19:50 |
| euod[m] | as soon as they get talking about stuff it's all hand movements | 19:50 |
| LjL | sure sure, that means more hands less head, i mean less mouth, i mean less talking with risk of droplet expulsion | 19:51 |
| LjL | also italian plosives aren't aspirated, english ones are | 19:51 |
| LjL | so the same thing that Japan showed applies! | 19:51 |
| euod[m] | WHO seems to have failed remarkably poorly. | 19:52 |
| LjL | so... they... succeeded? :P | 19:53 |
| euod[m] | it took them until mid March to acknowledge that there was a pandemic when it was.. obvious way before then. | 19:53 |
| euod[m] | english is hard. | 19:54 |
| LjL | euod[m], to be fair they did explain (very repeatedly, every day at their press conference) why they weren't calling it a pandemic despite it having all the hallmarks. i think there may also have been insurance-related reasons that are not necessarily bad, like for instance, someone on IRC told me they were going abroad, and i told them to check if the insurance they were getting covered pandemics, they were like "why wouldn't it", then they read it, and | 19:58 |
| LjL | of course it explicitly says it's invalid for anything the WHO declares to be a pandemic | 19:58 |
| euod[m] | partly for amusements sake I looked back at a risk assessment I helped with for a company | 20:03 |
| euod[m] | we seriously never even considered "pandemic" on the list. | 20:03 |
| LjL | well it's not like anyone had warned us it could happen, except every virologist and epidemiologist ever, plus bill gates for good measure | 20:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): China_Flu: Can someone pls explain to me the world is ignoring the fact that China has directly caused at least 3 of the last decades virus outbreaks? → https://is.gd/cEOYMQ | 20:30 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Pfizer's Coronavirus vaccine arrive in Chicago O hare international Airport (10351 votes) | https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-arrives-at-chicagos-ohare-airport-source/2382026/?_osource=SocialFlowTwt_CHBrand | https://redd.it/k39lk0 | 20:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +19 deaths (now 4650) since 9 hours ago | 20:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: US may see 'surge upon surge' of Covid-19 in weeks ahead – latest updates → https://is.gd/JYY4hc | 20:42 |
| tumidaj[m] | Polska | 20:43 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Arizona, US: +3221 cases (now 325995), +10 deaths (now 6634) since a day ago | 20:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR: Fauci Warns Of A 'Surge Upon Surge' As COVID-19 Hospitalizations Hit Yet Another High: More than 91,000 people were hospitalized with the virus on Saturday — 6,000 of those on ventilators. With the holiday season fast approaching, health experts fear the worst is yet to come. → https://is.gd/WpS3QZ | 20:54 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +130 deaths (now 16482) since 23 hours ago | 21:07 |
| LjL | doo da dum... https://np.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/k2doss/the_early_cryptic_transmission_and_evolution_of/ge2smr0/?context=3 | 21:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: NYC to reopen schools, even as virus spread intensifies: New York City will reopen its school system to in-person learning, and increase the number of days a week many children attend class, even as the coronavirus pandemic intensifies in the city, Mayor Bill de Blasio said Sunday. → https://is.gd/Nq7Sjo | 21:42 |
| de-facto | %title https://covidtracking.com/data | 21:49 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From covidtracking.com: Our Data | The COVID Tracking Project | 21:49 |
| de-facto | Collects and provides data for US: Tests, Cases, Hospitalizations, Fatalities as incidence time graphs and totals | 21:51 |
| de-facto | Totals for USA: 13 054 593 = 13M Cases, 189 871 827 = 190M Tests, 91 635 = 92k Hospitalized, 18 040 = 18k ICUs, 6 152 = 6k Ventilated, 257 119 = 257k Fatalities | 21:54 |
| de-facto | Daily ~1.7M tests, ~160k cases, ~92k occupied in hospital and raising, ~1.5k fatalities | 21:59 |
| de-facto | so those daily new values (incidence, time derivatives of totals) are all rising themselves too (hence totals have a positive second time derivative) but that rise of those incidence values seems to slow down a tiny bit with time (hence incidence may peak in future at some point, unless circumstances changed e.g. thanksgiving and winter holidays etc) | 22:03 |
| de-facto | to summarize, there might be a shy indicator of hope in the third time derivative of totals if things don't turn to the worse, pretty far fetched though | 22:06 |
| de-facto | the real problem are those rising hospitalizations that show the least sign of peaking yet | 22:08 |
| de-facto | on Nov 1 there were ~47531 hospitalized on Nov 28 (27 days later) there were ~91636 hospitalized hence (91636 - 47531) / 27 = 44105 / 27 = 1634 additional hospitalizations per day during November | 22:12 |
| de-facto | those 1.6k additional hospitalizations are the difference between daily influx of COVID-19 cases into hospitals and daily drain (recoveries + fatalities) from hospitals | 22:14 |
| de-facto | %title https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.htm | 22:21 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, the URL could not be loaded | 22:21 |
| de-facto | "The overall cumulative COVID-19-associated hospitalization rate through the week ending November 14, 2020, was 228.7 hospitalizations per 100,000 population." | 22:21 |
| de-facto | https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/11202020/images/lab-confirmed-hospitalizations-weekly.gif | 22:21 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Niger: +32 cases (now 1516) since a day ago | 22:21 |
| de-facto | so mostly the 65+ year olds | 22:22 |
| de-facto | (note the graph shows daily values) | 22:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from CDC (old): Cases & Deaths by County: Find national and local rates for COVID cases and deaths in the United States. → https://is.gd/yJtqEF | 22:30 |
| gigasu_shida | are you in favor of strict lockdowns that clear the streets de-facto ? | 22:32 |
| de-facto | yes i would prefer that indeed, the stricter a lockdown the more impact it has on the daily new infections and the shorter the duration to its success in regaining control | 22:33 |
| LjL | https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/why-official-covid-19-numbers-are-misleading-2329668 | 22:35 |
| LjL | In fact, the separate data, published by only a few states, on PCR vs Antigen test results, shows that PCR tests have a positivity rate that is 2.5 to 3.5 times higher than Antigen tests (for example, in Delhi the positivity rate for PCR tests is 14% while the positivity rate for Antigen tests is 4%). | 22:35 |
| LjL | This is kind of an interesting statistic | 22:35 |
| de-facto | well it also depends on test targeting, to whom they offer which test technology and for how long did they do that? | 22:37 |
| LjL | I almost knew you'd say something like that :p | 22:37 |
| LjL | The tone of the article is undeservedly outrage, but there are a few numbers. They don't answer everything of course | 22:39 |
| de-facto | or at what duration since exposure to the pathogen those tests are conducted | 22:39 |
| de-facto | though it really is a problem that testing strongly depends on so many circumstances and if they change real incidence may decouple from having a constant factor to detected cases | 22:40 |
| gigasu_shida | i agree with you, but the people have to be behind it otherwise it just won't work | 22:41 |
| de-facto | yet the more they find the better for ending infection chains, thats still the main purpose and the incidence is more like a byproduct of that | 22:41 |
| de-facto | the reported incidence of positive tests i meant | 22:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: India Fails to Report 3.4 Million Covid Cases → https://is.gd/EOC5Zu | 22:42 |
| Jigsy | 3>NHS to enlist 'sensible' celebrities to persuade people to take coronavirus vaccine | 22:44 |
| Jigsy | Unless they're Japanese voice actresses, I won't know who any of these people are. | 22:45 |
| Jigsy | And only one of those I know is currently in the UK. | 22:45 |
| Jigsy | https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-birdflu-britain-idUSKBN2890CX | 22:50 |
| Jigsy | %title | 22:50 |
| Brainstorm | Jigsy: From www.reuters.com: UK confirms H5N8 bird flu on English turkey farm | Reuters | 22:50 |
| Jigsy | The gift that keeps on giving. | 22:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from CNBC Health: (news): Fauci says Christmas and New Year’s restrictions will be necessary due to holiday coronavirus wave → https://is.gd/PYxNkx | 22:54 |
| Jigsy | %cases UK | 23:01 |
| Brainstorm | Jigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 1.6 million confirmed cases (2.4% of the population) and 58245 deaths (3.6% of cases) as of 5 hours ago. 42.6 million tests were performed (3.8% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 23:01 |
| de-facto | yeah the sequences were known for over a month already https://www.gisaid.org/references/gisaid-in-the-news/first-new-arrivals-of-hpai-h5-in-the-2020-2021-winter-in-the-eu/ | 23:06 |
| de-facto | "Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses of the H5N8 and H5N1 subtypes were detected in the Netherlands in October 2020. The HA genes of the two viruses are closely related, but the other genes of the H5N1 viruses appear to originate from other virus lineages circulating in Eurasia. The earliest virus detections were on 16 October in Eurasian wigeons, a long-distance migrant, and four full virus genomes were uploaded to GISAID by late | 23:07 |
| de-facto | October." | 23:07 |
| de-facto | 5title | 23:07 |
| de-facto | %title | 23:07 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.gisaid.org: GISAID - First new arrivals of HPAI H5 in the 2020-2021 Winter in the EU | 23:07 |
| gigasu_shida | i didn't know there was such a thing as a Wigeon | 23:07 |
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