LjL | %title https://khub.net/documents/135939561/338928724/SARS-CoV-2+variant+under+investigation%2C+meeting+minutes.pdf/962e866b-161f-2fd5-1030-32b6ab467896?t=1608470511452 | 00:08 |
---|---|---|
Brainstorm | LjL, the URL could not be loaded | 00:08 |
LjL | NERVTAG meeting on SARS-CoV-2 variant under investigation VUI-202012/01 | 00:08 |
DocScrutinizer05 | you asked for a "source": https://i.imgur.com/R4lsYj9.png | 00:26 |
de-facto | yes i believe you, i was curious about further details like how they tested and for which mutations and combinations of mutations | 00:28 |
DocScrutinizer05 | %tr <de wir haben den Impfstoff gegen 19 bekannte Mutationen getestet und er hat bei allen angeschlagen | 00:28 |
Brainstorm | DocScrutinizer05, German to English: we tested the vaccine against 19 known mutations and it worked on all of them (MyMemory) — we tested the vaccine against 19 known mutations and it worked for all of them (Google) — We have the serum against 19 confessed mutations tested and he has near #all *angeschlagen (Apertium) | 00:28 |
DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: well, they have their source in footnote? | 00:30 |
de-facto | yeah i already looked for their press releases | 00:30 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I'd also be interested in details | 00:30 |
de-facto | %title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.09.20245175v1 | 00:32 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: BNT162b2 induces SARS-CoV-2-neutralising antibodies and T cells in humans | medRxiv | 00:32 |
de-facto | linked from | 00:33 |
de-facto | %title https://investors.biontech.de/news-releases/news-release-details/pfizer-and-biontech-provide-data-german-phase-12-study-further | 00:33 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From investors.biontech.de: Pfizer and BioNTech Provide Data from German Phase 1/2 Study Further Characterizing Immune Response Following Immunization with Lead COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate BNT162b2 | BioNTech | 00:33 |
de-facto | "Antibodies generated in trial subjects were able to neutralize pseudo-viruses representing 19 diverse SARS-CoV-2 variants, indicating potential for broad protection against viruses with reported mutations" | 00:33 |
de-facto | "BNT162b2 immune sera efficiently neutralised 19 pseudotyped viruses (18 of which enter cells using an S protein with a different RBD variant, and one of which uses the dominant S variant D614G), indicating the potential for broad BNT162b2-elicited protection against reported mutations [1],[9],[10]" | 00:40 |
de-facto | cited from the medrxiv.org above | 00:41 |
de-facto | %title https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2027906 ref [1] | 00:41 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.nejm.org: Safety and Immunogenicity of Two RNA-Based Covid-19 Vaccine Candidates | NEJM | 00:41 |
de-facto | %title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2639-4 ref [9] | 00:41 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.nature.com: Phase I/II study of COVID-19 RNA vaccine BNT162b1 in adults | Nature | 00:41 |
de-facto | %title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2814-7 ref [10] | 00:41 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.nature.com: COVID-19 vaccine BNT162b1 elicits human antibody and T H 1 T cell responses | Nature | 00:41 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Grenada: +9 cases (now 103) since 2 days ago | 01:20 |
LjL | %title https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/12/20/news/coronavirus_variante_positivo_in_italia-279229115/?ref%3DRHTP-BH-I278887413-P1-S4-T1 | 01:28 |
Brainstorm | LjL: From translate.google.com: Google Translate | 01:28 |
LjL | Coronavirus, an Italian woman positive for the English variant: she is in isolation and has a strong viral load | 01:28 |
euod[m] | LjL: fuck :( | 01:30 |
LjL | i think this variant is probably everywhere already, euod[m] | 01:31 |
DocScrutinizer05 | :-/ | 01:31 |
LjL | this press release has caused a lot of fretting in Europe but... the variant has been there for months | 01:31 |
LjL | i don't get it | 01:31 |
euod[m] | really? countries rejecting air traffic from the UK as of now seemed to suggest it's definitely new. | 01:32 |
DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: still not even the "70%" are confirmed, right? quite possible the variant exists since months in the wild and the recently observed effects are only indirectly or not at all related to the mutation | 01:33 |
DocScrutinizer05 | euod[m]: sars-cov2 was allegedly "new" when it "spread from china" but then LjL enlightened me it was all over europe a 3 or 4 moths earlier? | 01:35 |
euod[m] | huh? | 01:35 |
euod[m] | that's CCP propaganda. | 01:35 |
LjL | euod[m], it's not new, but the *analysis* of it from UK government committees, and resulting press conference, is new. | 01:35 |
LjL | it's not CCP propaganda, fuck this, the studies were made here, by italians, not by the CCP | 01:36 |
LjL | i'm tired of hearing science put down like that just because you don't like what it says | 01:36 |
LjL | it doesn't seem to matter how much evidence accumulates, it will never be enough | 01:36 |
LjL | it doesn't even mean it *didn't* spread from China. it just means it was in Europe months before what we know. | 01:37 |
LjL | s/know/knew/, really, it's pretty well-established by now but maybe we need to exhume some thousands of bodies and PCR them for everyone to be convinced | 01:37 |
LjL | sorry, my tone is needlessly aggressive. i've just been frustrated on this topic for a bit too long. | 01:39 |
DocScrutinizer05 | is there a section in "wiki" to link to | 01:43 |
DocScrutinizer05 | ? | 01:43 |
DocScrutinizer05 | like %paper origin | 01:43 |
LjL | DocScrutinizer05, %paper is to bring up preprints from the preVIEW service. %link(s) is the one that looks at my list of links | 01:47 |
LjL | but no, there is no section on origin | 01:47 |
LjL | there are individual links to the studies on wastewater | 01:47 |
LjL | %links wastewater | 01:47 |
Brainstorm | LjL, Sorry, nothing found. Try with broader keywords | 01:47 |
LjL | or not | 01:47 |
LjL | %links sewage | 01:47 |
Brainstorm | LjL, Sorry, nothing found. Try with broader keywords | 01:47 |
LjL | :\ | 01:47 |
LjL | %links milan | 01:47 |
Brainstorm | LjL, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.11.20098442v1.full (SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence trends in healthy blood donors during the COVID-19 Milan outbreak), finding that among blood donors in Milan, Lombardy, around 4.6% were positive to IgG at the "start of the outbreak" on February 24, and around 7.1% by April 8, using a test with 98.3% specificity, yielding similar [... want %more?] | 01:47 |
LjL | %more | 01:47 |
Brainstorm | LjL, [...] prevalence as a https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247\(20\ (Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Hong Kong and in residents evacuated from Hubei province, China: a multicohort study)30053-7/fulltext) despite different specificity and sensitivity of tests → https://paste.ee/p/sgU5A | 01:47 |
LjL | i thought i had those | 01:47 |
LjL | %links sewer | 01:47 |
Brainstorm | LjL, Sorry, nothing found. Try with broader keywords | 01:47 |
LjL | %papers milan turin wastewater | 01:48 |
Brainstorm | LjL, SARS-CoV-2 has been circulating in northern Italy since December 2019: evidence from environmental monitoring by Giuseppina La Rosa et al, published on 2020-06-26 at http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.06.25.20140061 | 01:48 |
LjL | this is a preprint but it was published later, don't remember on what journal | 01:48 |
LjL | the sequences for some of the proteins found in that sewage were published too | 01:48 |
Brainstorm | Updates for France: +7557 cases (now 2.5 million) since 21 hours ago — Netherlands: +22 deaths (now 10511) since 21 hours ago | 01:52 |
DocScrutinizer05 | hehe %paper ;-D | 01:54 |
LjL | %papers spain wastewater | 01:55 |
Brainstorm | LjL, 10 papers: First Data-Set on SARS-CoV-2 Detection for Istanbul Wastewaters in Turkey by Bilge Alpaslan Kocamemi et al, published on 2020-05-06 at http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.05.03.20089417 [... want %more?] | 01:55 |
LjL | %papers wastewater barcelona | 01:55 |
Brainstorm | LjL, Sentinel surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater anticipates the occurrence of COVID-19 cases by Gemma Chavarria-Miró et al, published on 2020-06-13 at http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.06.13.20129627 | 01:55 |
LjL | hm i shouldn't make the bot say "published on", since these *aren't* published | 01:55 |
LjL | <Brainstorm> New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Turkey bans flights from UK, Denmark, Netherlands and S.Africa amid new virus strain → https://is.gd/mFJjFF | 01:59 |
LjL | thorough | 01:59 |
LjL | DocScrutinizer05, now that i've added this to the links list, %links should work with any of the keyword in the relevant line | 02:01 |
LjL | %links wastewater | 02:01 |
LjL | well, except i'm restarting the bot, i forgot | 02:01 |
LjL | %links wastewater | 02:02 |
Brainstorm | LjL, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720352402?via%3Dihub (SARS-CoV-2 has been circulating in northern Italy since December 2019: Evidence from environmental monitoring) was published on Nature and finds presence of viral RNA from wastewater in parts of northern Italy (Milan, Turin), with published partial sequences of the isolated RNA [... want %more?] | 02:02 |
LjL | i'm confused | 02:46 |
LjL | i thought Bell's palsy was mentioned in the Pfizer final study paper *and* in the FDA report | 02:46 |
LjL | but now i find no mention of it here https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577 or here https://www.fda.gov/media/144246/download | 02:47 |
LjL | am i blind? is my ctrl+f broken? | 02:47 |
LjL | there is just "Facial paralysis" as part of a long list on page 80 at the FDA link | 02:47 |
LjL | ah... it is mentioned here https://www.fda.gov/media/144245/download | 02:50 |
Brainstorm | Updates for New Zealand: +5 cases (now 2121) since a day ago | 02:51 |
the-wes | %cases oregon | 03:20 |
Brainstorm | the-wes: In Oregon, US, there have been 102930 confirmed cases (2.6% of the population) and 1341 deaths (1.3% of cases) as of 4 hours ago. 471935 tests were performed (21.8% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 03:20 |
the-wes | %cases kentucky | 03:22 |
Brainstorm | the-wes: In Kentucky, US, there have been 242321 confirmed cases (5.5% of the population) and 2397 deaths (1.0% of cases) as of 3 hours ago. 743500 tests were performed (32.6% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 03:22 |
pepee | what are the news on the UK strain? is it true that many countries already confirmed having gotten it? | 03:26 |
LjL | pepee, Italy did, i don't know about others, but some others have, i forget which | 03:43 |
LjL | the UK strain has been around for quite some time | 03:43 |
LjL | the only difference is that now we're worried about it, really | 03:43 |
LjL | i think it's in all of Europe already, at least | 03:44 |
pepee | ah | 03:44 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: U.S. Has Administered 556,208 Vaccine Shots in First Week (10070 votes) | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-20/u-s-has-administered-556-208-vaccine-shots-in-first-week?cmpid=socialflow-facebook-business&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=business&fbclid=IwAR13Gw2pn8WECBtjDFcwg2lJa9Mq2MZe5oiIoLOrirUW2IpdW8XzJJx7Te0 | https://redd.it/kh3tuv | 04:35 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Glycyrrhizin effectively neutralizes SARS-CoV-2 in vitro by inhibiting the viral main protease (81 votes) | https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.18.423104v1 | https://redd.it/kgw7vj | 05:05 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +2170 cases (now 625930), +81 deaths (now 18626) since 23 hours ago | 05:36 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Thailand: +382 cases (now 5289) since a day ago | 06:08 |
strike | %cases USA | 06:17 |
Brainstorm | strike: In US, there have been 18.3 million confirmed cases (5.5% of the population) and 324869 deaths (1.8% of cases) as of 3 hours ago. 234.2 million tests were performed (7.8% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.3% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.0% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=US for time series data. | 06:17 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Essential workers, older seniors next COVID vaccine priority groups (84 votes) | https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/12/essential-workers-older-seniors-next-covid-vaccine-priority-groups | https://redd.it/kh7558 | 06:29 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +6444 cases (now 1.5 million) since 15 hours ago — Nunavut, Canada: +1 deaths (now 1) since 3 days ago | 07:08 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Gelderland, Netherlands: +1908 cases (now 73361), +6 deaths (now 1174) since 23 hours ago — Moscow Oblast, Russia: +1539 cases (now 138183), +13 deaths (now 2691) since 23 hours ago — Flevoland, Netherlands: +394 cases (now 16187) since 23 hours ago — Crimea Republic, Ukraine: +357 cases (now 21406), +7 deaths (now 420) since 23 hours ago | 07:36 |
de-facto[m] | Seems like passengers arriving in airports from London yesterday all had to be tested via RT-PCR and then quarantined until results available, then have to go into isolation at home 10 days but can be tested sgain after 5 days to end it prematurely. | 07:43 |
de-facto[m] | Hopefully they will really stick striclty to the rules of isolsting even on Christmas... | 07:44 |
de-facto[m] | Above procedure applies for all negative testing results, if positive there will be some special isolation quarantine | 07:45 |
de-facto[m] | Now any passenger travel from UK to Germany is illegal with exceotions for medical personal, crews and cargo. | 07:49 |
de-facto[m] | I think similar rules apply for traveling from SA. | 07:50 |
de-facto[m] | actually i think the prematureky ending of home isolation by negative test is a mistake | 07:51 |
de-facto[m] | Like after 5.2 days median incubation time only half became sick, hence the other half may potentially contain some infected individuals below testing threshold, making such compromises with containment for potential mutant strains is stupid imho they should be forced to isolate strictly at airport for 14 days and tested after that period. | 07:55 |
de-facto[m] | Haha and yesterday i was joking about letting them sign a paper and then thinking the problem is solved. Little did i know ... | 07:59 |
de-facto | LjL, i am not sure if that strain really would be expected to already have been around long time, i mean at least they seem to believe for some reason (higher viral loads, some stats about spreading dynamics?) that this variant it like 50%-70% more transmissible, hence assuming they are somewhat right about that and together with the known reproduction by the "normal" wildtype for normalization of reproduction in a region one should be | 08:06 |
de-facto | able to estimate the duration it is in community spread i think | 08:06 |
de-facto | how long some single isolated cases of the mutant were around is indeed unknown though, but at least the duration of community spread should be estimate-able | 08:07 |
de-facto | RKI COVID-19 Germany 2020-12-21: Weekly incidence 197.1/100k, Infections +16643 (1510652 total), Fatalities +226 (26275 total), COVID@ICU 5070 (incl 2679 on ventilator) | 08:11 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Russia: +29350 cases (now 2.9 million), +493 deaths (now 51351) since 23 hours ago | 09:21 |
de-facto | %title https://jvi.asm.org/content/94/7/e00127-20 | 11:53 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From jvi.asm.org: Receptor Recognition by the Novel Coronavirus from Wuhan: an Analysis Based on Decade-Long Structural Studies of SARS Coronavirus | Journal of Virology | 11:53 |
de-facto | "Published online March 17, 2020." | 11:54 |
de-facto | "Alarmingly, our data predict that a single N501T mutation (corresponding to the S487T mutation in SARS-CoV) may significantly enhance the binding affinity between 2019-nCoV RBD and human ACE2. Thus, 2019-nCoV evolution in patients should be closely monitored for the emergence of novel mutations at the 501 position (to a lesser extent, also the 494 position)." | 11:55 |
de-facto | Well sound familiar? | 11:55 |
de-facto | %title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9#ref-CR7 | 11:56 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.nature.com: The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2 | Nature Medicine | 11:56 |
de-facto | "Published: 17 March 2020" | 11:57 |
de-facto | "Six RBD amino acids have been shown to be critical for binding to ACE2 receptors and for determining the host range of SARS-CoV-like viruses7. With coordinates based on SARS-CoV, they are Y442, L472, N479, D480, T487 and Y4911, which correspond to L455, F486, Q493, S494, N501 and Y505 in SARS-CoV-2" | 11:57 |
de-facto | https://media.springernature.com/full/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41591-020-0820-9/MediaObjects/41591_2020_820_Fig1_HTML.png | 11:58 |
de-facto | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VUI_%E2%80%93_202012/01 | 12:25 |
de-facto | %title | 12:25 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From en.wikipedia.org: VUI – 202012/01 - Wikipedia | 12:25 |
de-facto | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_Variant | 12:26 |
de-facto | %title | 12:26 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From en.wikipedia.org: 501.V2 Variant - Wikipedia | 12:26 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +10002 cases (now 413991), +79 deaths (now 6697) since 23 hours ago | 12:35 |
de-facto | %title https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1931312820306247 | 12:46 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.sciencedirect.com: Complete Mapping of Mutations to the SARS-CoV-2 Spike Receptor-Binding Domain that Escape Antibody Recognition - ScienceDirect | 12:46 |
DocScrutinizer05 | another R_eff[-7d] = 1 day in Germany | 13:04 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Mutant coronavirus in the United Kingdom sets off alarms but its importance remains unclear (81 votes) | https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/12/mutant-coronavirus-united-kingdom-sets-alarms-its-importance-remains-unclear | https://redd.it/khc074 | 13:14 |
genera | with r=1 it shoulnt be raising, rite? | 13:36 |
DocScrutinizer05 | genera: that's what I based it on, today's numbers = numbers [-7d], or call it incidences | 13:40 |
DocScrutinizer05 | well +200some | 13:40 |
genera | well we in this county went into "status black" this monday so no r=1 here | 13:40 |
DocScrutinizer05 | so 1% rise in 7 days | 13:40 |
genera | they ran out of colours )) | 13:41 |
DocScrutinizer05 | Switzerland? | 13:43 |
genera | Hessen | 13:45 |
DocScrutinizer05 | oh | 13:45 |
DocScrutinizer05 | genera: I can't see much extraordinary situation for Hessen | 13:53 |
genera | it is for each county on its own. we e g have >200 7day for 3 days in a row | 13:54 |
genera | (and they have no other ideas what to do) | 13:55 |
DocScrutinizer05 | worst I see on RKI dashboard is LK Odenwaldkreis with 356.8 /100k7d | 13:56 |
genera | ya they have been high for some wweks | 13:57 |
de-facto | what I dont really like about the incidence trends in Germany is that many federal states seem to have a raise again for the peaks on Thursdays 2020-12-{3,10,17} | 14:01 |
DocScrutinizer05 | yep | 14:04 |
DocScrutinizer05 | what I like is the seemingly solidifying trend in my stats http://reisenweber.net/et_al/covid/covid19_statistics.htm | 14:05 |
de-facto | %title https://imgur.com/a/xWZ4mM6 https://i.imgur.com/KBdLF8U.png | 14:06 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID-19 Germany: Daily incidence of newly detected infections - Album on Imgur | 14:06 |
DocScrutinizer05 | https://i.imgur.com/CwwHC5H.png | 14:07 |
de-facto | %title https://imgur.com/a/Fi2J1B1 https://i.imgur.com/8CTYD6C.png | 14:09 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID-19 Germany: Smoothed Reproduction numbers for daily infection incidence by federal states - Album on Imgur | 14:09 |
de-facto | Seems like since begin of December most federal states got a Reproduction Number 1 < R < 1.25 so thats consistently R>1 hence its out of control even during the so called "Lockdown" | 14:10 |
DocScrutinizer05 | ej, we got two of those, one is not one week old yet | 14:12 |
DocScrutinizer05 | eh* | 14:12 |
DocScrutinizer05 | except in Bavaria where it's 2 weeks old now | 14:12 |
de-facto | Yeah we got many of whatever they call "lockdown" | 14:12 |
DocScrutinizer05 | and I seem to see effects in statistics | 14:13 |
de-facto | what really matters though is daily incidence and today its roughly one incubation time after 2020-12-16, hence first chance to maybe the begin of an effect, yet more likely to show after 10-14 days hence 2020-12-26 or 2020-12-30 | 14:14 |
DocScrutinizer05 | since 4 days I see R_eff drop, now several indicators say it's =1 | 14:14 |
de-facto | it always drops at the end due to reporting delays | 14:15 |
de-facto | for the last week or such you would need nowcasting for proper Reff | 14:15 |
DocScrutinizer05 | err nope, I don't look at those effects | 14:15 |
de-facto | those effects are contained in the RKI numbers if you dont compensate for them with nowcasting | 14:16 |
DocScrutinizer05 | no, my data is stable afor older than 3 days | 14:16 |
de-facto | looking at "COVID-19-Fälle/Tag nach Meldedatum*" from corona.rki.de it seems that last 3 weeks it is always rising | 14:18 |
DocScrutinizer05 | it's pretty simple to compare the diagram of a week ago with a new one and see how much the points contained in both are changing between them, you see those older 3 days in old diagram don't change much if at all, compared to any newer diagram | 14:18 |
de-facto | yeah but if you compare todays incidence with the one from one week ago you have to do nowcasting for at least the next 3-5 days into the future | 14:19 |
de-facto | because from the reporting of those 3-5 days in the future there will be cases that will be accounted for today | 14:20 |
DocScrutinizer05 | when you compare "reported today" which is the number prominently cited everywjere then there is no nowcasting involved whatsoever | 14:20 |
de-facto | which number? | 14:21 |
DocScrutinizer05 | since it's *always* just the "reported today" cases | 14:21 |
DocScrutinizer05 | the +16,643 | 14:22 |
de-facto | ok but compare it with what then? | 14:22 |
de-facto | you would have to write it down every day because its different from the one on "Meldedatum" graph | 14:23 |
DocScrutinizer05 | and, as I explained above, in my diagrams I don't do nowcasting and instead look only at data points older >>last meaningful datapoint:2020/12/17<< | 14:23 |
de-facto | but to which number would you compare 16643 to then? | 14:24 |
DocScrutinizer05 | "they" write it down for me, in ZDF and they today reported "+200some compared to last monday" | 14:24 |
Jigsy | %cases UK | 14:24 |
Brainstorm | Jigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 2.0 million confirmed cases (3.1% of the population) and 67452 deaths (3.3% of cases) as of 6 hours ago. 49.6 million tests were performed (4.1% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 14:25 |
DocScrutinizer05 | in my statistics I don't use those "raw daily reported" | 14:25 |
de-facto | ah ok well yeah if you write that number down everyday and not compare it to meldedatum in your graph or such that might be a proper comparsion for same conditions each day of the week | 14:25 |
DocScrutinizer05 | in my statistics http://reisenweber.net/et_al/covid/covid19_statistics.htm I do the "compare to last week" in foldedphase (red solid line), basically. Though on the real "meldedatum" cases (light pink) per RKI data | 14:31 |
DocScrutinizer05 | *both* ("ZDF" and my own stats) tell me we reached a R_eff=1 today | 14:32 |
DocScrutinizer05 | my stats need manual "nowcasting" since, as written in the note, the last few datapoints are not mature yet | 14:33 |
DocScrutinizer05 | even with such "manual nowcasting" they seem to indicate R_eff=1 | 14:33 |
DocScrutinizer05 | maybe 1.05 to 1.1 max | 14:34 |
de-facto | https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Projekte_RKI/Nowcasting_Zahlen_csv.csv?__blob=publicationFile | 14:34 |
de-facto | yeah maybe something like that but still R>1 | 14:35 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +7506 cases (now 1.5 million) since 23 hours ago | 14:35 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I'm more interested in the R_eff trend which is pointing downward | 14:40 |
Elpolaco | de-facto: Hi, is tehere any legend for the .csv shared? English version maybe? | 14:41 |
DocScrutinizer05 | R_eff(fp) = 0,98 once 2020/12/15 | 14:42 |
DocScrutinizer05 | oops 020/12/16 | 14:43 |
de-facto | %title https://imgur.com/a/btkJ3Fi https://i.imgur.com/LngZjgg.png source https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Projekte_RKI/Nowcasting_Zahlen_csv.csv?__blob=publicationFile | 14:46 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID-19 Germany: Daily Incidence and Reproduction - Album on Imgur | 14:46 |
de-facto | I am not so convinced still that the exponential growth trend is broken yet | 14:49 |
de-facto | looking at those numbers from RKI | 14:50 |
Jigsy | 3>UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is to hold a press conference. | 14:57 |
Jigsy | Another one? | 14:57 |
Jigsy | I should probably head to the store now just incase... | 14:59 |
DocScrutinizer05 | boring "news": EMA approved BNT162b2 | 15:05 |
DocScrutinizer05 | realtime Emer Cooke /director EMA) on TV | 15:06 |
de-facto | %title https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9waGXIEg4cg | 15:18 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.youtube.com: EMA press briefing – 21 December 2020 - YouTube | 15:18 |
de-facto | %title https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/events/press-briefing | 15:19 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.ema.europa.eu: Press briefing | European Medicines Agency | 15:19 |
de-facto | "EMA is holding a virtual press briefing on the outcome of the meeting of EMA’s human medicines committee (CHMP), which will discuss the COVID-19 vaccine from BioNTech / Pfizer on 21 December. | 15:19 |
de-facto | " | 15:19 |
de-facto | "Speakers include Emer Cooke (EMA's Executive Director), Harald Enzmann (Chair of CHMP), Sabine Strauss (Chair of PRAC) and Marco Cavaleri (Head of Biological Health Threats and Vaccines Strategy). The press briefing will be moderated by Marie-Agnes Heine, EMA's Head of Communication." | 15:19 |
de-facto | https://twitter.com/EMA_News | 15:19 |
de-facto | %title | 15:19 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From twitter.com: error parsing title ('NoneType' object has no attribute 'string') | 15:19 |
de-facto | meh | 15:19 |
de-facto | "Latest news from the European Medicines Agency, the European Union agency responsible for the evaluation and supervision of medicines. RTs ≠ endorsement." | 15:20 |
de-facto | https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/events/press-briefing | 15:26 |
de-facto | THey will continue to collect data during ongoing vaccinations because no study could ever find the very rare sideeffects | 15:43 |
de-facto | They dont know yet if it will be effective against the new UK SARS-CoV-2 variant but they are confident that it might be effective because it was also effective against other mutations | 15:44 |
de-facto | so the immune response is broad enough spread in variety to be able to catch at least the other mutations | 15:45 |
Brainstorm | Updates for US: +186264 cases (now 18.3 million) since a day ago | 15:52 |
de-facto | %title https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/ema-recommends-first-covid-19-vaccine-authorisation-eu | 15:56 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.ema.europa.eu: EMA recommends first COVID-19 vaccine for authorisation in the EU | European Medicines Agency | 15:56 |
Arsanerit | :) | 16:02 |
de-facto | https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/ema-recommends-first-covid-19-vaccine-authorisation-eu | 16:03 |
de-facto | https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/documents/product-information/comirnaty-product-information-approved-chmp-21-december-2020-pending-endorsement-european-commission_en.pdf | 16:04 |
de-facto | https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/documents/other/pharmacovigilance-plan-eu-regulatory-network-covid-19-vaccines_en.pdf | 16:04 |
de-facto | https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/human/summaries-opinion/comirnaty | 16:06 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Namibia: +585 cases (now 19299), +3 deaths (now 180) since a day ago — Gibraltar: +38 cases (now 1282) since a day ago | 16:06 |
de-facto | https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/ema-publishes-safety-monitoring-plan-guidance-risk-management-planning-covid-19-vaccines | 16:07 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +11168 cases (now 700873) since 23 hours ago — Barbados: +14 cases (now 321) since 2 days ago — Canada: +6008 cases (now 509918), +66 deaths (now 14245) since 23 hours ago | 16:38 |
Jigsy | You know what's good about the COVID-19 vaccine? | 16:40 |
Jigsy | That Martin Shkreli has absolutely no hand in it. | 16:40 |
Jigsy | Could you imagine if he did? | 16:40 |
Jigsy | Probably be something like $800/shot. | 16:40 |
jacklsw | who is that martin shkreli? | 16:57 |
Jigsy | Some asshole who increased the price of cancer medication simply because he could. | 16:58 |
Jigsy | He's in prison at the moment. | 16:58 |
Elpolaco | What about China actually. Will they vaccinate their citizens? It started in Wuhan, and now they're making the massive parties there. | 17:03 |
Elpolaco | The US and EU are still fightng with thath virus, since almost a year now | 17:04 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +10869 cases (now 2.0 million), +415 deaths (now 69214) since 23 hours ago | 17:06 |
jacklsw | china already completed isolation and contained the virus spread | 17:13 |
jacklsw | while the rest of the world struggle to balance between economy and pandemic | 17:13 |
louipc | is it back to normal now | 17:13 |
louipc | i thought it was contained in taiwan too | 17:14 |
de-facto | "Inside this California hospital, a ‘constant battle’ against covid-19" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVwuRvM3h7U <-- warning may contain graphic content | 17:17 |
de-facto | crazy many just wear surgical masks | 17:20 |
Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +30357 cases (now 2.1 million), +164 deaths (now 67616) since 9 hours ago — Arizona, US: +7748 cases (now 461345), +1 deaths (now 7972) since 23 hours ago | 17:20 |
de-facto | ah maybe ontop of N95? | 17:21 |
de-facto | yeah looks like that | 17:21 |
darsie | Is there also acoustic content in this video? | 17:21 |
louipc | double mask plus face shield plus oxygen | 17:21 |
louipc | darsie: yea theres sound | 17:21 |
de-facto | they really seem to be at max capacity or beyond | 17:23 |
de-facto | damn | 17:23 |
darsie | Why are they not wearing goggles? Are face shields better? | 17:30 |
de-facto | idk maybe googles have condensation problems for long term usage? | 17:34 |
de-facto | goggles even | 17:34 |
de-facto | lol | 17:34 |
louipc | face shields got more coverage | 17:35 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Greenland: +6 cases (now 25) since 12 days ago | 17:38 |
de-facto | yeah that makes sense | 17:39 |
de-facto | https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-airlines/traffic-rises-at-u-s-airports-as-3-2-million-screened-over-weekend-idUSKBN28V1RI | 17:49 |
de-facto | "TSA said it screened a total of 3.2 million people over the prior three days as holiday air travel began in earnest, including 1.06 million on Sunday. The total was down 58% over the 7.6 million people that were screened over the same period in 2019, the agency said." | 17:50 |
Elpolaco | Is talking about vaccines banned here? Yesterday I shared my doubts about it on ##chat and I've almost been kicked. | 17:57 |
Elpolaco | Did you read the "REG 174 INFORMATION FOR UK HEALTHCARE PROFESSIONALS"? | 18:03 |
louipc | how do they even screen for virus | 18:03 |
Elpolaco | This vaccine was not tested as it should be. It has been created in very short time. What if there will be some long term side effects? | 18:03 |
Elpolaco | Nobody will be responsible for that | 18:04 |
louipc | why not | 18:04 |
LjL | Elpolaco: China has already vaccinated a number of people, so much that they had a study on 50000 vaccinated people going abroad and none getting COVID | 18:04 |
Elpolaco | https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/943417/Information_for_healthcare_professionals.pdf | 18:05 |
Elpolaco | Just take a look | 18:05 |
louipc | yea ##chat is not the best place for that discussion. this is more appropriate channel | 18:05 |
LjL | Talking about vaccines is obviously not banned here, but your question surely went further than that without stating it. If I'm not wrong the thing you mention refers to the UK's requesting of an AI system to assist with adverse reaction monitoring | 18:05 |
louipc | Elpolaco: the commmon people are the ones that have power to hold politicians, or others accountable | 18:05 |
louipc | this has always been the case, but i guess we are more or less complacent | 18:07 |
louipc | not worth most people's time/effort | 18:08 |
Elpolaco | Well, maybe the UK will have some AI monitoring system, but is it OK to test that vaccine on the scared population? | 18:11 |
LjL | You know what else hasn't been tested as it should(n't) be, but is kind of on its way there? The virus's ability to mutate in nasty ways. So far we've "only" enjoyed mutations that seem to make it more infectious, we also could get one that make it deadlier, although in general that's not in the virus's best interest... But that depends a lot on the specifics | 18:11 |
louipc | is sars part of regular seasonal flu now? | 18:15 |
LjL | Longer term effects aren't really tested even in other vaccines. Study participants are followed over time after the main part of the study ends, but the vaccine may be given to the population in the meanwhile. Given the situation we are in, I'd say yes, even if a phase 3 trial has been sort of rushed, as long as it seems solid (but I would watch carefully over conflicts of interest, given the vaccines had already been produced at scale before being approved) | 18:15 |
LjL | it seems to make that it would be unethical NOT to use it. Long term side effects of vaccines are uncommon, by the way. By far most side effects appear in the early months | 18:15 |
LjL | louipc: no, SARS is mostly extinct, and even if it weren't, it's got nothing to do with the flu | 18:16 |
Elpolaco | Fertility: It is unknown whether COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine BNT162b2has an impact on fertility. | 18:16 |
LjL | SARS was much less easily spread than COVID, although it was deadlier, so after a while of fighting it, it kinda went away | 18:17 |
Elpolaco | What if people after it will not be able to have children? | 18:17 |
LjL | Elpolaco: there is no evidence that it DOES have an impact either. They are just required by law to write that. | 18:17 |
LjL | Well you know what HAS been shown to have a detrimental effect on fertility? Yep, COVID-19! | 18:18 |
Elpolaco | LjL: Yeah, but they don't know that. It can make more damage than the covid itself | 18:18 |
LjL | Extremely unlikely | 18:18 |
LjL | And yeah well no, they did not wait for all the study participants to have children | 18:19 |
LjL | Are you somehow under the impression they do wait for that in other vaccines? | 18:19 |
Elpolaco | Well, other vaccines are tested for much longer than just few months | 18:20 |
DocScrutinizer05 | no, not really, just the tests are done less efficiently and concurrently | 18:33 |
DocScrutinizer05 | actually EMA (european medical agency) said it's been one of the most comprehensive and huge studies they ever seen. Even now already, without the "phase 4" long term observation it has gorgeous amounts of data and is considered very safe so far | 18:36 |
DocScrutinizer05 | for obvious reasons we don't really want to wait a 6 years to complete all long term monitoring on a test group before we start using a vaccine that has very few indications for any severe long term or late adverse effects | 18:38 |
DocScrutinizer05 | Elpolaco: and to give you some additional relief, the mRNA vaccine been developed years ago already, just been modified/adapted to be effective against sars-cov2 | 18:48 |
DocScrutinizer05 | the EMA approval is in no way tainted by rushing it, it complies with all regulations for a standard conditional (preliminary, not unlimited) approval of whatever remedy | 18:50 |
Elpolaco | DocScrutinizer05: can you share some source of this information? I've never heard about it has been developed years ago. | 18:51 |
Elpolaco | Actually, I heard a lot about it's brand new | 18:51 |
DocScrutinizer05 | it's based on BioNTech's development fighting cancer. Sorry I don't have a link to a source at hand but it should be easy to google for it | 18:52 |
DocScrutinizer05 | basically BNT developed it to make your immune system fight cancer cells, and they simply adjusted the "viewfinder haircross" mRNA sequence to make your immune system fight the corona virus instead | 18:54 |
IndoAnon | DocScrutinizer05: phase 3 volunteers should have been encouraged to copulate | 19:02 |
IndoAnon | Well, solving edge cases is important... hindsight 20/20 | 19:02 |
LjL | IndoAnon, the planet could do with a reduction in human fertility, anyway | 19:40 |
IndoAnon | especially africa | 19:40 |
IndoAnon | Their fertility is above 4 | 19:41 |
IndoAnon | Even my nation barely above 2.5 | 19:41 |
louipc | why LjL | 19:42 |
LjL | because we're clearly too many and unless we manage to change the way and amount we utilize energy, we're destroying the planet | 19:44 |
LjL | viruses like SARS-COV-2 are themselves an example of what happens when we do that. destroy forests, get ever closer to wild animals that should be left alone... encounter their pathogens. | 19:44 |
LjL | we're going to get more of this. | 19:44 |
louipc | yes nature 'fights back' | 19:46 |
louipc | but sounded like you have specific ideas of how nature should operate? i dunno | 19:47 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +9101 cases (now 1.5 million), +239 deaths (now 26776) since 23 hours ago | 19:52 |
LjL | i don't know what it sounded like, i only know what i said | 19:56 |
louipc | sure | 19:58 |
louipc | but maybe the world has room for more humans | 19:59 |
louipc | in that case "clearly too many" would be incorrect | 19:59 |
louipc | "destroying the planet" also seems to be somewhat subjective too | 20:00 |
louipc | but we are definitely changing it | 20:00 |
benakautzer[m] | https://twitter.com/TheBinderLab/status/1340966485775314947?s=19 | 20:11 |
benakautzer[m] | German thread about the new Corona strain in GB. | 20:12 |
benakautzer[m] | Just some explanation, not to much details (as these are still unknown). | 20:12 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Spain: +12662 cases (now 1.8 million), +334 deaths (now 49260) since 3 days ago | 20:20 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +5911 cases (now 512198), +63 deaths (now 14278) since a day ago | 20:38 |
de-facto | about fertility, some of the highest ACE2 receptor concentrations (where SARS-CoV-2 can bind) is in the males testis | 20:47 |
de-facto | hopefully vaccinations could prevent infection there | 20:47 |
de-facto | %title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41423-020-00604-5 | 20:47 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.nature.com: Pathological and molecular examinations of postmortem testis biopsies reveal SARS-CoV-2 infection in the testis and spermatogenesis damage in COVID-19 patients | Cellular & Molecular Immunology | 20:47 |
louipc | lol dang | 20:48 |
louipc | wait.. how age were these specimens | 20:48 |
de-facto | old because it was a postmortem analysis | 20:49 |
de-facto | but it demonstrates what COVID can do there, hence i think this is worrying | 20:50 |
louipc | also nice sample size | 20:50 |
louipc | " five COVID-19 patients and three uninfected controls" | 20:50 |
louipc | !next | 20:50 |
louipc | 51, 62, 70, 78, and 83 years | 20:50 |
de-facto | its not representative or such, it just confirms the suspicion that covid does infect where ACE2 concentrations are high | 20:51 |
louipc | is this a legit science journal or what? | 20:51 |
de-facto | yes of course it is | 20:51 |
de-facto | its not meant to be representative of course it demonstrates that the virus is present there and can do damage | 20:52 |
de-facto | also it has been found in the sperm of alive males, hence it seems not only to happen to those they analyzed post mortem there | 20:52 |
genera | what kind of lab do you need for this work? | 20:52 |
de-facto | how often it actually happens in young is unknown still afaik but this is nothing we would wish for | 20:52 |
de-facto | hence because you were talking about fertility and how this could be affected by COVID i thought this would be relevant to the discussion | 20:53 |
de-facto | genera, idk but since SARS-CoV-2 is around anyhow probably pathology with some good PPE or such? | 20:54 |
de-facto | not sure about that though | 20:54 |
de-facto | %title https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2765654 | 20:56 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From jamanetwork.com: Clinical Characteristics and Results of Semen Tests Among Men With Coronavirus Disease 2019 | Infectious Diseases | JAMA Network Open | JAMA Network | 20:56 |
de-facto | from the first paper the conclusion is | 21:03 |
de-facto | "Collectively, our findings provide direct evidence that SARS-CoV-2 can infect the testis and GCs, indicating the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on spermatogenesis and male fertility. Nevertheless, further study is essential to reveal the underlying mechanism of SARS-CoV-2 infection of testicular cells and the correlation of testis infection with the clinical course of COVID-19." | 21:03 |
Arsanerit | covid survivor = no more babies? | 21:05 |
de-facto | second paper concludes their results like this | 21:06 |
de-facto | "Of these 38 participants who provided a semen specimen, 23 participants (60.5%) had achieved clinical recovery and 15 participants (39.5%) were at the acute stage of infection. Results of semen testing found that 6 patients (15.8%) had results positive for SARS-CoV-2, including 4 of 15 patients (26.7%) who were at the acute stage of infection and 2 of 23 patients (8.7%) who were recovering, which is particularly noteworthy" | 21:06 |
de-facto | " But there was no significant difference between negative and positive test results for patients by age, urogenital disease history, days since onset, days since hospitalization, or days since clinical recovery." | 21:06 |
de-facto | ages were like 20s till 50s | 21:07 |
de-facto | so i guess it shows 1) SARS-CoV-2 can do considerable damage to the sperm production ability of the male testis 2) it is present in the semen also of younger patients but we dont know how much damage it has done there | 21:09 |
de-facto | Not sure what that actually means for fertility of a whole population, but for me those two papers are already enough to worry about COVID potentially affecting fertility (longterm? shortterm?) and i would want to stay clean of this nasty virus | 21:11 |
de-facto | so if vaccination could prevent all that from happening it would be a very good thing | 21:12 |
de-facto | and again this is not a representative study for a whole population, it just demonstrates a possible mechanism that should be taken into consideration for further investigation | 21:16 |
louipc | i figured the standard of a study would be higher for publication | 21:19 |
louipc | but i guess they are publishing preliminary investigations | 21:19 |
de-facto | what is your point actually? | 21:20 |
louipc | larger sample size for example | 21:20 |
LjL | a study isn't judged on things like the sample size, but only on what it *purports to represent* given the sample size it has | 21:20 |
LjL | studies on autopsies are not so common with COVID and definitely don't tend to have large sample sizes | 21:21 |
de-facto | the first paper was about autopsy, they needed dead bodies and the agreement of relatives to use their bodies | 21:21 |
de-facto | they never were meant or they never claimed to be representative, they investigated the underlying mechanism and effects | 21:21 |
LjL | anyway, there are multiple studies suggesting that COVID affects the quality/viability of sperm, which i think is what de-facto was trying to point at | 21:22 |
LjL | there are no studies showing that for vaccines. of course it is still possible that vaccines also impact it, albeit unlikely, but what do you choose between something bad that you know *will* happen and something that you simply haven't ruled out? | 21:22 |
de-facto | the second paper could have used a larger sample size indeed, i would think the same because it would be important to know how common it is for a certain degree of disease severity to have SARS-CoV-2 positive semen | 21:23 |
de-facto | yet again what they show is that it is not so uncommon to find the virus there even in young people | 21:24 |
de-facto | in my opinion things like autopsies are *very* important because this is a new virus hence we really need to understand more about what it is able to do in the body of an infected | 21:26 |
de-facto | also it seems the virus has not really found its biological "niche" yet, affecting multiple organs when it is not contained by initial immune response success | 21:27 |
de-facto | so investigating and uncovering mechanisms by autopsies is the only way to find out what SARS-CoV-2 does in those organs especially for severe cases | 21:28 |
de-facto | then if the mechanism and the potential effects from that is somewhat understood it can be investigated further: 1) how often does it happen 2) how does it correlate to disease severity 3) does correlate with some other comorbidities etc | 21:30 |
de-facto | so the point of such a publication is not to have a representative sample size at all (that would take way to much time), it is about investigating a suspected mechanism and reveal the details about it by staining cell cultures etc | 21:32 |
de-facto | it is a bit like when police arrives at a crime scene and finds a dead body: pathological experts have to find causes and mechanisms for observed effects and underpin them with proof e.g. by samples and PCR tests etc. | 21:35 |
de-facto | if they would wait with publishing those results to the investigators until they acquired a representative sample size the murder potentially already could have gotten away with killing many more victims | 21:36 |
de-facto | forensic pathology would probably be the correct term in English for such a profession (i am not a native English speaker) | 21:43 |
Jigsy | 3>Boris Johnson is facing intense pressure to impose another national lockdown within days, as more than 40 countries banned arrivals from the UK in an effort to keep out a new fast-spreading variant of coronavirus. | 22:39 |
LjL | Jigsy, but then again, those countries did it because Boris Johnson's press conference scared them :P | 22:40 |
de-facto | https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom;Germany;South%20Africa;Netherlands;Czechia;Slovakia;Denmark&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&miscType=Reff | 22:58 |
de-facto | interesting all those started to have an increase since begin of December | 22:58 |
Jigsy | 3>Students yet to travel home exempt from English Tier 4 travel ban | 22:59 |
genera | das paßt zu meiner These, daß es Agenten sind, die es zeitgleich ausstreuen ^^ | 22:59 |
de-facto | might be due to several reasons, e.g. lockdown ends at roughly synced but also sharing strains (hopefully not though) | 22:59 |
Jigsy | The UK really doesn't grasp the concept of Lockdown. | 23:00 |
blkshp | The concept of lockdown is something that there is no agreement on throughout the world. | 23:02 |
LjL | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockdown#COVID-19_pandemic i am not very happy with the labelling of South Africa's lockdown as "one of the strictest" based on the *headline* of a general news media article, same for the Philippines although that's got two | 23:19 |
de-facto | Philippines had military with weapons on the street to ensure lockdown already at a time where it just began to spread in Europe | 23:24 |
de-facto | Friend of mine was there during that time, she barely could leave and said it was crazy strict | 23:25 |
LjL | maybe, i'm just saying that sourcing should be better than that | 23:25 |
LjL | (especially for South Africa though) | 23:25 |
de-facto | yeah of course, just telling what she told me (she said she was scared by them) | 23:26 |
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