libera/##covid-19/ Wednesday, 2020-12-30

de-factoLjL, did they provide it via RSS feed or such?00:00
LjLde-facto: you mean like Virological above? Everything that Brainstorm provides as "New from ..." is an RSS or Atom feed00:01
de-factoi looked for RSS on virological.org but did not find feeds00:03
LjLde-facto: after installing an "RSS widget" extension in my browser I'm realizing a ton more sites have RSS than I thought... Before I'd just hunt for it and sometimes fail to find it :p I hadn't realized it's still standard to include it in a standard way in the HTML, since I kind of expected the widget to still be standard in browsers if so... But nope00:04
LjLde-facto, if you're using firefox https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/awesome-rss/00:05
de-factooh thats smart, didnt know those exist to search for links in the html00:06
BrainstormNew from NPR: First U.S. Case Of U.K. COVID-19 Variant Found In Colorado: A strain of the coronavirus that reportedly spreads faster than the original version has been found in Colorado. The variant had previously been reported in the United Kingdom. → https://is.gd/lwI24l00:06
LjLde-facto, in the heyday of RSS, i think Firefox and other browsers actually used to have an RSS icon for every website that advertised it in the HTML00:12
de-factoi still like RSS a lot, i have a tinyrss server to get all news on my Androids00:13
de-factoit aggregates RSS feeds from many tens of websites and combines them into one feed, so my Android only would have to pull from my server instead of all those sites00:20
de-factomuch more battery friendly00:20
LjLde-facto, though i hate the fact push services (like websocket, not like evil centralized push) are not more commonplace in certain areas that would benefit from them... like most earthquake information actually comes from either RSS feeds or more specialized feeds (QuakeML format from FDSN services for instance) that are similar to RSS in that you have to keep polling them. poll them too often, and they get mad... but it's information you want to have 01:09
LjLquickly. i only know of two services that provide earthquake events through a websocket (out of dozens i know in total [well, that my bots know. i know nothing. i forget after five minutes])01:09
BrainstormUpdates for Switzerland: +131 deaths (now 7493) since 23 hours ago01:10
de-factoyeah for realtime info like earthquakes polling is not a good approach, but rss comes from a time before ajax and websockets and still (thankfully) is somewhat widespread, i have to admit i like it a lot, yet if something more realtime would become widespread standard (decentralized) it would be even better for realtime info01:23
DocScrutinizer05>>...He also encouraged Trump to get vaccinated. → https://is.gd/5cunUv<< OUCH!01:24
BrainstormUpdates for France: +7251 cases (now 2.6 million) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +7486 cases (now 779697) since 23 hours ago01:29
gigasu_shidawhy did you use past tense 'became'?01:41
DocScrutinizer05it means "the day when the name is already forgotten", not "the day we forget it"01:43
gigasu_shidainteresting01:43
DocScrutinizer05and I'm afraid that day will never come01:45
DocScrutinizer05when obama, doublewho bush and even nixon are forgotten, the name trump will linger on in US and world's collective memory as the worst president the US ever had and who kicked of a whole new area of political corruptness and abysmal style and lack of character01:47
DocScrutinizer05kicked off*01:47
DocScrutinizer05Trumpism will grow, not vanish01:48
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: The UK has reported another 53,135 cases of coronavirus, the highest recorded daily total since the pandemic began → https://is.gd/3tD6ch01:58
jason500[m]Trump is cool, stop regurtating mass media progranda02:27
BrainstormUpdates for Panama: +4574 cases (now 238279), +41 deaths (now 3933) since a day ago — Cyprus: +907 cases (now 21315), +4 deaths (now 117) since 23 hours ago — Eswatini: +247 cases (now 8934), +8 deaths (now 175) since a day ago02:43
BrainstormNew from Lockdowns from Wikipedia: Keith D: Fix PMC warnings: Fix PMC warnings ← Previous revision Revision as of 01:53, 30 December 2020 Line 313: Line 313: ==Debate== ==Debate== − Several analysts have concluded that lockdowns are effective at reducing the spread of COVID-19. {{Cite [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/uhc8nH03:00
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: US confirms first case of new Covid strain discovered in UK → https://is.gd/qOcbBZ03:13
BrainstormUpdates for France: +8582 cases (now 2.6 million) since 19 hours ago — Netherlands: +5644 cases (now 781573), +128 deaths (now 11216) since 19 hours ago03:45
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Regeneron Announces Encouraging Initial Data from COVID-19 Antibody Cocktail Trial in Hospitalized Patients on Low-flow Oxygen (85 votes) | https://investor.regeneron.com/news-releases/news-release-details/regeneron-announces-encouraging-initial-data-covid-19-antibody | https://redd.it/kmpo0w03:49
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: New coronavirus variant does not cause illness more severe than others: Study → https://is.gd/yJq8YK03:51
LjLjason500[m], should anyone take you seriously when you seemingly can't even spell "propaganda"?04:01
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Sydney on alert as second cluster of Covid-19 cases emerges → https://is.gd/9Th61q04:16
DocScrutinizer05shouldn't feed troll, but can't help it, I claim all above judgments are my genuine notion and in no way fostered or inspired by any mass or other media, except for first hand videos and tweets from and about that dude04:16
DocScrutinizer05his very own slime oozing outa twitter is more than enough to form a genuine notion about him04:18
BrainstormNew from Lockdowns from Wikipedia: HiChrisBoyleHere: /* Indonesia */Redundant: Indonesia: Redundant ← Previous revision Revision as of 03:30, 30 December 2020 Line 110: Line 110: LSSR measures were lifted throughout the month of May despite continued community transmission of the virus. The capital of Jakarta became the final region to lift the most [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/uhc8nH04:41
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Congressman-elect Luke Letlow (R-LA) to US house of representatives dies of COVID-19 → https://is.gd/lRmUEp05:19
niar6 05:20
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Around the world, people yearn for significant change rather than a return to a “pre-COVID normal”. The survey of more than 21,000 adults from 27 countries finds that 72% would prefer their life to change significantly rather than go back to how it was before the COVID-19 crisis started. → https://is.gd/xCDahd05:32
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: US Congressman-elect Luke Letlow of Louisiana dies of Covid-19 → https://is.gd/rCRESN05:57
BrainstormUpdates for Belgium: +1677 cases (now 641411), +127 deaths (now 19361) since 23 hours ago06:08
BrainstormNew from Il Sole 24 Ore: Un anno di coronavirus, cosa sappiamo e cosa resta da capire: Da dove ha avuto origine il SARS-CoV-2? Quali Paesi lo hanno contrastato meglio? Quando finirà? In 12 mesi si sono capite molte cose, altre restano  incerte → https://is.gd/pskBfM06:48
BrainstormNew preprint: Paired SARS CoV-2 Spike Protein Mutations Observed During Ongoing SARS-CoV-2 Viral Transfer from Humans to Minks and Back to Humans by Reid Rubsamen et al, made available as preprint on 2020-12-29 at https://biorxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.12.22.424003 [... want %more?]07:16
BrainstormUpdates for New Jersey, United States: +49748 cases (now 513713), +126 deaths (now 18777) since 22 hours ago — Texas, United States: +29535 cases (now 1.7 million), +244 deaths (now 27282) since 22 hours ago — Skane, Sweden: +7707 cases (now 64892), +6 deaths (now 666) since 6 days ago — Vaestra Goetaland, Sweden: +6278 cases (now 70866), +49 deaths (now 1197) since 6 days ago07:22
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Wuhan’s Covid cases may have been 10 times higher: Study → https://is.gd/Gjki4y07:25
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Germany's daily Covid-19 deaths top 1,000 for first time: Germany's daily coronavirus death toll has crossed 1,000 for the first time, health authorities said Wednesday. → https://is.gd/Yi44OZ07:37
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express (Health): Food & Wine: Yearender 2020: Millennials and their pandemic kitchen chronicles → https://is.gd/HZMOdp08:03
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid-19: Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine approved for use in UK → https://is.gd/GkzYOV08:15
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: coronavirus outbreak: Britain approves AstraZeneca/Oxford Covid-19 vaccine → https://is.gd/2Y6gXi08:40
gigasu_shidafinalmente si parla italiano e non inglese08:40
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: (news): Covid-19: Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine approved for use in UK → https://is.gd/63vumz08:53
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | December 30, 2020: The WHO pages contain up-to-date and global information. Please refer to our Wiki for additional information. → https://is.gd/NjuhEN09:05
BrainstormUpdates for Czechia: +16420 cases (now 701622), +127 deaths (now 11429) since 23 hours ago — Lithuania: +3934 cases (now 138219), +75 deaths (now 1422) since 21 hours ago09:20
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: (news): Covid-19: Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine approved for use in UK → https://is.gd/63vumz09:30
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Hit hard by the pandemic, Mexico’s drug cartels tweaked their playbook → https://is.gd/vKHhER09:43
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine authorised by UK medicines regulator (83 votes) | https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine-authorised-by-uk-medicines-regulator | https://redd.it/kmxdoj09:51
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: (news): Covid-19: Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine approved for use in UK → https://is.gd/63vumz10:07
mobidropI think India is hit harder from the farmers protest / verge on civil war10:12
de-factoRKI Germany COVID-19 2020-12-30 (between the years rep.): Weekly Incidence 141.3/100k, Infections +22459 (1687185 total), Fatalities +1129 (32107 total), COVID@ICU 5641 (incl. 3061 on ventilator) 10:31
de-factoSad new record all time high in daily fatalities10:32
de-factoGermany got the most daily new fatalities (absolute) in Europe, worldwide only USA got more absolute daily new fatalities10:34
BrainstormUpdates for Estonia: +973 cases (now 27256), +5 deaths (now 226) since 23 hours ago10:35
mobidropin Germany between 100.000 - 120.000 people die from the results of smoking every year, Corona has 32.267 deaths so far this year10:36
de-factobut relatively USA got 3.95x the population of Germany, hence the daily 1129 new fatalities would be equivalent to 4463 fatalities in USA, but actually they got 3398, hence Germany got the most daily new fatalities per capita, worldwide.10:38
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Health: As a nurse, she knew the daily traumas of Covid-19. Then her father landed in her ICU → https://is.gd/ADpDYJ10:45
gigasu_shidade-facto: i suggest you look at weekly fatalities to average out the noise a bit10:49
de-factoyeah it might be related to delayed reporting, but still ~1k daily new fatalities is not too uncommon in the recent reports for Germany10:50
de-factoso it might be a little bit more than usual, but not too far off10:51
de-factoand yeah of course there are other causes for fatalities, but even the over all cause fatalities are above average from previous years in Germany10:54
de-facto.title https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2020/12/PE20_523_12621.html10:54
Brainstormde-facto: From www.destatis.de: Mortality figures in Week 47: 9% above the average of previous years - Statistisches Bundesamt10:54
gigasu_shidait always baffled me how in the early days germany was strangely low on deaths/cases10:55
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Opinion: Stopping the syndemic: Covid-19 plus other debilitating and deadly diseases: I've been amazed at the rapid progress industry, governments, and nonprofit organizations are making on Covid-19 therapies and vaccines. But narrow management of the crisis risks neglecting other important population… → https://is.gd/DWW7ij10:57
de-factoyeah and then those covidiots were tolerated to sabotage cohesion, management thought they could get away with reacting very late with the mildest possible containment interventions, now we get the bill for all of this.10:58
de-factohopefully at least some understand by now that a proactive aggressive approach with the most strict measures possible would have been a much more efficient way in terms of cost vs benefit 10:59
DocScrutinizer05PK Spahn Wiehler starting *now*11:00
de-factooverall Germany might have invested something like 3500 billion Euros and the question might be asked what we have achieved with it so far11:00
de-factohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ub8oxmNpp7c11:01
de-factohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lx4XcC2CDkU11:01
de-factoBrits approved AstraZeneca11:04
de-facto.title https://www.astrazeneca.com/content/astraz/media-centre/press-releases/2020/astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-authorised-in-uk.html11:05
Brainstormde-facto: From www.astrazeneca.com: AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine authorised for emergency supply in the UK11:05
de-facto.title https://www.bbc.com/news/health-5528067111:06
Brainstormde-facto: From www.bbc.com: Covid-19: Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine approved for use in UK - BBC News11:06
de-facto.title https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine-authorised-by-uk-medicines-regulator11:08
Brainstormde-facto: From www.gov.uk: Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine authorised by UK medicines regulator - GOV.UK11:08
Brainstormde-facto: From www.gov.uk: Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine authorised by UK medicines regulator - GOV.UK11:08
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: South Korea tries to contain coronavirus outbreak in prison → https://is.gd/Fu7WhE11:10
de-facto.title https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquoten-Tab.html <-- Digital vaccination rate monitoring for COVID-19 vaccination in German Language11:14
Brainstormde-facto: From www.rki.de: RKI - Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 - Digitales Impfquotenmonitoring zur COVID-19-Impfung11:14
BrainstormNew from Virological.org: Lineage-specific growth of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 during the English national lockdown:  Preliminary report Harald Vöhringer 1 , Matthew Sinnott 2 , Roberto Amato 2 , Inigo Martincorena 2 , Dominic Kwiatkowski 2 , Jeffrey C. Barrett 2 and Moritz Gerstung 1 , on behalf of The COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium 3 1 European [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/QgOfWA11:35
de-facto"We find strong and consistent evidence that B.1.1.7 proliferated (R>1) during the English lockdown in 86% (215/246) of lower tier local authorities with an average R value of 1.26. At the same time other lineages contracted (R<1) at an average R value of 0.86 in most regions, leading to 81% (200/246) of regions showing B.1.1.7 proliferation while other lineages diminished."11:40
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: The U.S. needs to vaccinate 3 million people per day to hit Covid vaccination goal, doctor says (10074 votes) | https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/30/covid-us-needs-to-vaccinate-3-million-people-per-day-to-hit-goal.html | https://redd.it/kmsair11:46
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: (news): Covid-19: Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine approved for use in UK → https://is.gd/63vumz11:48
DocScrutinizer05de-facto: spahn again confirmed >>6 doses [he said "cans" ;-P) per vial, recommended since day1<<11:58
BrainstormNew from BMJ: Covid-19: How denialism led Mexico’s disastrous pandemic control effort: As the streets in Mexico City filled with cars, crowds, and Christmas excitement this December, the traffic light system indicating the status of its covid-19 hospitals began to turn red.“Our... → https://is.gd/1jQCKo12:00
de-factoyeah 20% more, thats not a game changer12:01
DocScrutinizer05another relevant info: ramp-up (aka "licensing") much easier with vector vaccine since for this technology there already exist a lot of fabs that can get converted in almost no time12:01
de-factoactually that he got that question demonstrates that others also think we dont have enough vaccine doses available12:01
DocScrutinizer05de-facto: there will be no "game changers" except the mere fact that we now _have_ vaccines12:01
de-factoyes indeed that is the actual game changer12:02
DocScrutinizer05and jonestly, *everybody* thinks it was nioce to have more doses available, but the point is that there's no way to turn the world into a pony farm where you can change reality by uttering wishes12:03
de-factohttps://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquoten-Tab.html https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquotenmonitoring.xlsx?__blob=publicationFile12:03
de-facto41962 vaccination doses gievn, 12232 elderly, 14964 from profession, 1661 medical, 21767 elderly care homes 12:05
CounterPillowI was part of the AstraZeneca vaccine trial in the control group and there is a huge side effect they won't tell you about and have been suppressing for months now. Ever since I was injected the vaccine, I have been craving cock. I can't think of anything but big juicy wieners. I used to be a perfectly straight man, praising the Lord with every breath I take, but now the only reason I get on my knees is to service a fat dick.12:05
Arsanerit^^ troll12:08
CounterPillow^^ COINTELPRO/MKULTRA stooge12:09
mobidrophahahaha12:13
BrainstormNew from ECDC: Communicable disease threats report, 27 December-2 January, week 53: The ECDC Communicable Disease Threats Report (CDTR) is a weekly bulletin for epidemiologists and health professionals on active public health threats. This issue covers the period 27 December 2020-2 January 2021 and includes updates on COVID-19. → https://is.gd/8IXKNt12:13
de-facto400 vaccination centers in Germany, capability to vaccinate daily 300k doses12:14
de-factoonly the vaccines are not there yet12:14
CounterPillowAnd thank the Lord for that, I do not wish my gay affliction on any other man.12:15
Arsanerit300k/day would be decent12:16
Arsanerithopefully AZD1222 by AstraZeneca will be approved in EU soon12:17
de-facto.title https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations12:26
Brainstormde-facto: From ourworldindata.org: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations - Statistics and Research - Our World in Data12:26
de-factoProf. Dr. Cichutek from PEI just said that vaccinations even for seropositive makes sense12:29
ArsaneritPaul Ehrlich Institute?12:31
de-factobecause its unknown how long after recovery the antibody response will remain, hence vaccination would be like a booster12:31
Arsaneritah still unknown?12:32
CounterPillowseropozz me daddy12:32
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +18116 cases (now 1.7 million) since 22 hours ago12:33
DocScrutinizer05>><de-facto> only the vaccines are not there yet<< well the truth is: by today, we got 60,000 vaccinations done, from the almost 1.4 million available doses. The bottleneck is elsewhere right now, and _this_ is a legit target for bitching and shouting12:42
DocScrutinizer05Arsanerit: the Paul Ehrlich Institute aka PEI is the germany official vaccine certification and monitoring entity12:45
DocScrutinizer05-y12:45
DocScrutinizer05(simplified approach)12:46
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express (Health): Fashion: Bespoke services, virtual shows and more: How fashion industry adapted to pandemic → https://is.gd/tYmknA13:04
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Vaccinated US nurse contracts Covid, expert says Pfizer shot needed more time to work: Report → https://is.gd/v7kcgk13:16
CounterPillownew covid numbers just dropped!!! https://0x0.st/-rOn.png13:39
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Coronavirus: Germany ‘very far away from normality’ → https://is.gd/zNHYxy13:41
ArsaneritDocScrutinizer05: I know, the question was whether PEI here was meant to mean Paul Ehrling Institute :)13:46
Deknoshey, there's a quicktest from roche which tests for corona. it has also a control entity which shows if the test was done correctly. is anyone aware against what (perhaps protein) they are testing in the control instance?13:50
BrainstormUpdates for Latvia: +2095 cases (now 39043), +46 deaths (now 626) since 23 hours ago13:53
CounterPillowthe gay protein13:55
Deknosit's somehow strange that they talk about the SARS-COV2-recognition but not about the control13:57
DocScrutinizer05de-facto: could you help me out with an arbitrary paper showing antibody decay over time?14:10
DocScrutinizer05those "70% after 3 months" diagrams14:13
de-factoafaik there was a paper about the Moderna vaccine14:14
de-facto.title https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc203219514:14
Brainstormde-facto: From www.nejm.org: Durability of Responses after SARS-CoV-2 mRNA-1273 Vaccination | NEJM14:14
DocScrutinizer05whatever you got at hand. I'm in discussion with somebody thinking antibodies would vanish a few days after recovery14:15
DocScrutinizer05thanks14:15
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: When will you be eligible for the Covid vaccine?: Two vaccines are being rolled out across the UK, so when might you get it? → https://is.gd/VYjcP814:19
de-factoid look for the REACT2 results from UK14:19
de-factoidk maybe something like this? https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-00813-814:19
de-facto.tilte14:19
de-facto.title14:19
Brainstormde-facto: From www.nature.com: Longitudinal observation and decline of neutralizing antibody responses in the three months following SARS-CoV-2 infection in humans | Nature Microbiology14:19
de-facto.title https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/react-2-real-time-assessment-of-community-transmission-antibody-waning14:22
Brainstormde-facto: From www.gov.uk: REACT-2: real-time assessment of community transmission – antibody waning - GOV.UK14:22
de-factohavent read those, so you should read them yourself before arguing with the links14:23
mobidropeven if the antibodies disappear, won't your memory T cells be able to start antibody production as soon as the virus is detected again?14:29
BrainstormUpdates for Gibraltar: +180 cases (now 1973) since a day ago15:14
de-factoantibody titers falling below detection threshold of a specific test does not mean they are not present anymore, but it may mean that immunity may fade. Yet as you already mentioned there also is the cellular immunity of T-cells reacting to the presence of the antigen (the virus), and that is not tested with antibody tests at all (they would have to provoke T-cells in serum with antigen and observe their cytokine reactions)15:26
de-factoso id guess only time may tell about the decay rates of different levels of immunity: strongest sterilizing immunity completely preventing asymptomatic infections (hence also transmission from upper respiratory tract), immunity allowing for just mildly symptomatic infections or immunity against severe disease progressions (e.g. infection of the lower respiratory tract)15:29
de-factoprobably the decay would be some sort of exponential of time 15:29
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Covid-19: Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine approved for use in UK: The first doses are due to be given on Monday, amid concern over rising coronavirus cases. → https://is.gd/63vumz15:36
jacklswwhatever happening in uk is scary15:44
de-factowhy scary?15:45
jacklswsuch spike in number of cases16:01
de-factoyeah thats true, but reporting during christmas and new years may have some jitter effects16:10
de-factoe.g. maybe some reports were delayed and now added again? 16:10
de-factoits really hard to tell, probably needs average numbers over 1-2 weeks or such16:10
de-factoespecially now with all those new variants around16:11
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: California nurse tests positive over a week after receiving Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine- ABC → https://is.gd/Rwf4UX16:27
BrainstormNew from Lockdowns from Wikipedia: Arcahaeoindris: /* Debate */: Debate ← Previous revision Revision as of 15:28, 30 December 2020 Line 317: Line 317: During the early stages of the pandemic, statistical modelling which advised that restrictions were needed to prevent a large number of deaths were used as the basis for lockdowns although some [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/uhc8nH16:40
BrainstormNew from StatNews: STAT+: 3 pharma trends to watch in 2021: In the coming year, the pharmaceutical industry will have to contend with unprecedented pressure to ensure global access to Covid-19 drugs and vaccines. → https://is.gd/GRsl6p16:52
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): NOWDx Test for the Detection of Antibodies to COVID-19 → https://is.gd/bbIlCp17:05
BrainstormUpdates for Canada: +7295 cases (now 567879), +174 deaths (now 15391) since 22 hours ago17:12
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): COVID 19 and Psychological Health: a Cross Sectional Study to Evaluate Anxiety and Depression in Covid-19 Patients → https://is.gd/lS1YUQ17:30
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +83093 cases (now 2.4 million), +1250 deaths (now 72548) since 23 hours ago17:49
LjLIs that real?17:50
LjLThe UK numbers17:50
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): NOWDx Test for the Detection of Antibodies to COVID-19 → https://is.gd/bbIlCp17:55
de-factotitle https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases17:56
de-facto.title https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases17:56
Brainstormde-facto: From coronavirus.data.gov.uk: Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK17:56
LjL"AstraZeneca vaccine has been approved for people aged over 18, with two standard doses, four to 12 weeks apart" <- whaaaaat17:57
LjL(UK)17:57
de-facto.title https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/17:58
Brainstormde-facto: From coronavirus.data.gov.uk: Daily summary | Coronavirus in the UK17:58
de-factoAstraZeneca https://www.astrazeneca.com/content/astraz/media-centre/press-releases/2020/astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-authorised-in-uk.html https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine-authorised-by-uk-medicines-regulator https://www.bbc.com/news/health-5528067117:59
LjLde-facto: okay so basically they're giving up on even hoping to prevent transmission, since they only highlight this vaccine prevents "severe" infections, they're saying yeah, you get sick anyway, deal with it, that's what we have18:06
LjLAlso what does that tell us about the magical half dose regimen? That it was just a fluke?18:08
BrainstormNew from EMA: News and press releases: Update on rolling review of AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine, , 30/12/2020: EMA’s assessment of the COVID-19 vaccine being developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University has been progressing over the past weeks. The Agency is... → https://is.gd/iNwTNd18:08
de-factoim not sure18:12
LjL%title https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/regulatory-approval-of-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca/information-for-healthcare-professionals-on-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca18:17
BrainstormLjL: From www.gov.uk: Information for Healthcare Professionals on COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca - GOV.UK18:17
LjLSome actual data here, not as much as you'd expect from an FDA review18:18
LjLPlease read the efficacy data table and tell me if you find to justified to state in the press release that it protects against severe disease18:26
LjL(Which is defined as worse than hospitalization, since there's more hospitalizations than severe cases)18:26
BrainstormUpdates for Italy: +16202 cases (now 2.1 million), +575 deaths (now 73604) since 23 hours ago — Switzerland: +5424 cases (now 447905), +131 deaths (now 7588) since 22 hours ago — Netherlands: +8781 cases (now 787888), +132 deaths (now 11318) since 21 hours ago18:32
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: (news): Covid-19: Twenty million in England added to toughest level of restrictions → https://is.gd/ykqbi118:33
LjLthe table goes "Primary (see above)" - but there doesn't seem to be any mention of the word "primary" elsewhere in the document -.-18:52
LjLalso i don't understand, in the "Any dose" section of the table (as opposed to Primary, what is "Any dose" and what is "Primary" here really?), the efficacy is 52.69 with a confidence interval of (40.52, 62.37)... that's even worse than what we had... like, 62% was the centerpoint with two full doses, not the *top* of the range!18:57
deadwhy does everyone whos not at risk need to get a vaccine that doesn't stop transmission of the virus. There is no evidence at all that it stops transmission, its not designed to stop transmission. So this vaccine can not supply herd immunity19:00
deadimmunizing you to the disease does not prevent you from transmitting it to someone at risk that can't get the vaccine19:00
deadso there is no point for healthy people that are not at risk, to get this vaccine.19:00
deadthe media needs to stop selling this as a traditional vaccine. This is a vaccine against the disease, not infection19:01
deadherd immunity literally does not apply to this19:01
LjLdead, what vaccine? you just joined and started talking about "this" vaccine. a little context would help. this is an international channel so if only one vaccine is approved in your country, we cannot know that.19:02
LjLanyway, with Pfizer and Moderna, while they have not specifically studies whether immunization prevents transmission, there's also plausible enough hints that it would19:03
deadmrna-1273 moderna, or the pfizer one19:03
deadthis applies to both19:03
LjLwell what you said may apply to AstraZeneca better, so there's that19:03
deadhints19:03
deadis not science19:03
LjLyou've left out the one vaccine where i think your argument has some merit19:03
deadcome on man19:03
BrainstormUpdates for Lebanon: +2878 cases (now 177996), +26 deaths (now 1456) since 22 hours ago19:03
deadastrazeneca as far as I know has not been authorized for use by FDA19:03
deadi haven't investigated the trials for that vaccine, just moderna and pfizer19:04
LjLwell, i'm not under the jurisdiction of the FDA19:04
LjLand while "hints" are not science, we are enough in a hurry here that a plausible mechanism of action may well be enough19:04
LjLanyway, nobody even said yet that *everyone* will be made to take these vaccines19:04
deadwhat hint are there19:04
LjLfew countries have talked about making it mandatory, and virtually *all* countries have talked about giving it first to vulnerable groups only19:05
deadthe study was designed to check the ability to stop severe covid19 reactions/covid19 symptoms19:05
deadnot stop infection19:05
LjLwhich is exactly what you are saying should be done19:05
deadthe trials clearly state this19:05
deadall sorts of businesses and media is trying to push the idea of forced vaccination19:05
LjLthe study didn't only look at "severe" COVID-19, it looked at all COVID-19 that wasn't asymptomatic19:05
deadselling it as normal herd immunity19:05
deadticketmaster sai dthey would require the vaccine, for example19:06
deadrequiring proof of a vaccine is already a serious privacy issue19:06
LjLanyway before you joined here with a random angry wall of text, i was going to paste this to ask de-facto and others a question19:06
LjL"Following vaccination with COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca, in participants who were seronegative at baseline, seroconversion (as measured by a ≥4 fold increase from baseline in S binding antibodies) was demonstrated in ≥98% of participants at 28 days after the first dose and >99% at 28 days after the second. Higher S binding antibodies were observed with increasing dose interval (Table 3)."19:06
deadyes, so the vaccine was compared to a placebo and the efficacy was based on how many people had covid19 symptoms in both groups19:06
LjLso basically, AZ actually has immunogenicity to a high degree, so the fact it's so much less effective than Pfizer and Moderna...19:07
LjLwould be down to the fact that those elicit a much more specific response to the S-protein?19:07
LjL(i mean, we clearly don't know for sure, but that's the only mechanism i can think of after reading that)19:07
deadok but AZ isn't authorized for use19:07
deadso thats not the one currently being distributed?19:07
LjLyes it is, in the UK and India19:07
LjLwe really don't care that you in particular are in the US19:07
deadok19:07
LjLi'm not even talking to you19:07
deadI haven't researched the AZ one then19:07
LjLas i said i've asked a questions to de-facto19:08
deadthats great that AZ may stop transmission then19:08
LjLno, you aren't reading19:08
LjLAZ is the *least* likely to stop transmission19:08
LjLspend ten minutes reading what's going on in a channel before bursting in with an angry tirade19:08
genera_in participants who were seronegative at baseline, seroconversion (as measured by a ≥4 fold increase from baseline in S binding antibodies)19:09
genera_i dont understand19:09
genera_how low is before?19:09
LjLgenera_, i would assume zero, but maybe that's about the fact they cannot measure it with full precision19:10
BrainstormNew from Ars Technica: Policy: Pandemic-boosted remote workforce may be in for a shock at tax time → https://is.gd/LiVFZa19:10
LjLpoll: does anyone think quieting "dead" was unwarranted or premature? i mean, there are certainly reasons to be skeptical of some of these vaccines (i'm definitely skeptical of AZ at this point), but there is a certain class of people that always comes in with the same particular antics19:11
de-factosorry was afk19:12
LjLde-facto, no problem, i wasn't pushing you, i was just trying to tell that person that i wasn't actually talking to them anymore19:13
de-factowhich link are you talking about with that table?19:13
LjLde-facto, this one https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/regulatory-approval-of-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca/information-for-healthcare-professionals-on-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca19:13
LjLde-facto, ctrl+f for "primary" to find the table19:13
genera_primavera19:14
de-factoso their table shows 70%, is that the combined phase III trials? i gues19:19
de-facto"COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca efficacy against COVID-19"19:19
LjLde-facto, i don't know, i'm really confused about their numbers. if you read after the table, they also talk about a "one dose only" cohort and that comes with yet different numbers. and i'm not sure if any of this is about "half vs full dose"19:20
de-factoe.g. VE = 100% (ARV - ARU) / ARU with ARV = cases_vaccinated / participants_vaccinated ; ARU = cases_unvaccinated / parcicipants_unvaccinated19:20
de-facto"COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca has been evaluated based on an interim analysis of pooled data from four on-going randomised, blinded, controlled trials: a Phase I/II Study, COV001, in healthy adults 18 to 55 years of age in the UK; a Phase II/III Study, COV002, in adults ≥18 years of age (including the elderly) in the UK; a Phase III Study, COV003, in adults ≥18 years of age (including the elderly) in Brazil; and a Phase I/II stu19:22
de-factody, COV005, in adults aged 18 to 65 years of age in South Africa. "19:22
de-factoso all of the data they have19:22
BrainstormNew from https://covid19.specops.network : Add documents about AstraZeneca/Oxford approval in the UK: (courtesy de-facto and penguin42) also adding a note that news about vaccines may be in Vaccines and not in News → https://is.gd/6qjnZ919:23
LjLde-facto, yes but it also says in the AZ press release19:23
LjL"The MHRA’s decision was based on independent advice from its Commission on Human Medicines following a rolling review of trial data that included an interim analysis of the Phase III programme led by the University of Oxford. The data were also published in The Lancet on 8 December 2020."19:23
de-factoah not really19:24
de-facto"COV002 and COV003 exceeded the threshold of ≥5 virologically confirmed COVID-19 cases per study and therefore contributed to the efficacy analysis; COV001 and COV005 were excluded."19:24
LjLso it sounds like basically the MHRA may just have looked at the study we already had19:24
de-facto"In the pooled analysis for efficacy (COV002 and COV003), participants ≥18 years of age received two doses of COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca (N=5,807) or control (meningococcal vaccine or saline) (N=5,829). Because of logistical constraints, the interval between dose 1 and dose 2 ranged from 4 to 26 weeks."19:24
de-factoso they only used COV002 and COV003 it seems19:24
de-facto4-26 weeks thats ... quite a big timespan there19:24
LjLde-facto, it kinda makes sense with less than 5 COVID cases in other trials though, right?19:25
LjLyes19:25
LjLit doesn't speak of a job well done if you ask me19:25
IndoAnonde-facto: err, do you know fatalities related to corona vaxx? 19:25
de-facto.title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext19:26
Brainstormde-facto: From www.thelancet.com: The Lancet | The best science for better lives19:26
IndoAnonin case you missed this  Matthew W(9,11https://archive.li/99,999htBy19:26
IndoAnonwhoops, wrong one19:26
de-factoIndoAnon, nope idk about fatalities19:27
IndoAnonok19:28
IndoAnon99,11https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/134425573369781862419:28
IndoAnon.title19:28
BrainstormIndoAnon: From twitter.com: error parsing title ('NoneType' object has no attribute 'string')19:28
IndoAnonwtf19:28
LjLIndoAnon, you're probably not doing on purpose but with the link highlighted with a background color, both the bot and quite possibly people's clients will fail to load it properly19:29
LjL(although the bot never properly titles Twitter posts, because Twitter's HTML is dumb and i gave up)19:29
LjLIndoAnon, anyway in the studies that have been conducted, there has been *no* deaths linked to the vaccine. some severe adverse effects, yes, possibly19:30
LjLdoesn't mean nobody will die from the vaccine, but19:30
IndoAnonwell, can you make exception and pull thing from nitter.net, instead?19:31
LjLthey are already vaccinating a pretty large (small, but still large as a sample) number of people19:31
LjLwhen you do that, you have to expect some of them will die, just because in a large group of people, people die19:31
IndoAnonI'm aware of that, ljl19:31
IndoAnonTypically, there would be postmortem. And the silence is deafening19:33
LjLIndoAnon, meh, maybe. i don't really want to make an exception to be honest. the bot has exceptions for PDF (that isn't currently working) and for pictures (it tries to OCR them). those are *interesting* exceptions to write code on... anyway let's see19:33
LjL%title https://nitter.net/Reuters/status/134425573369781862419:33
BrainstormLjL: From nitter.net: Reuters (@Reuters): "Swiss canton says person died after COVID-19 shot, unclear if there is a link http://reut.rs/2MbXecI" | nitter19:33
IndoAnonwoohoo19:33
BrainstormUpdates for Ireland: +1718 cases (now 90157), +13 deaths (now 2226) since 23 hours ago19:34
de-factoi dont really understand their second table "SARS CoV-2 S-binding antibody response to COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca (a), (b)"19:35
de-factomeh19:36
IndoAnonFor one, they already telling people with history of allergy to not use their vaccine. 19:36
IndoAnonI don't think there's any people without allergic history. ..19:37
LjLde-facto, i didn't even try to understand that one, pretty sure it's over my head. the one on efficacy seems confusing enough for me19:37
LjLIndoAnon, afaik they're telling people with history of allergies serious enough to require having an EpiPen around with them, or to have had anaphylactic shock before19:38
LjLbut yes, with Pfizer and Moderna at least, you can have life-threatening allergic reactions in some people19:38
de-factoits just a weird form of table 19:38
de-factoi think im gonna have to eat something first :D19:38
LjLthe thing that sounds a bit like negligence to me is that Pfizer had such severely allergic people *excluded* from their trial, it's written in the trial protocol... and yet they started giving people like that the vaccine anyway, in the US and UK19:39
IndoAnonde-facto: Yeah, you should pay attention to your own body19:39
LjLthen they changed their tune, but only after some people had serious reactions19:39
LjLi'm not sure how much of it it's Pfizer's fault, and how much the government's / agency's19:39
IndoAnonLjL: It's mind-numbing 19:39
LjLbecause Pfizer did write it in the trial protocol, but made no mention of it in the final published study19:40
LjLbut then again if you are the FDA or MHRA or EMA why on earth wouldn't you study the trial protocol?19:40
IndoAnonBecause you're deep in their payroll?19:40
LjLi don't know, i think there are other possible explanations, but none of them is good19:41
IndoAnonIndustry expert hopping to public advisory agency isn't rare19:41
LjLIndoAnon, well, according to a dubious source *that i did not verify* (so, don't quote me), one of the peer reviewers of... whichever vaccine published their study on the NEJM (don't remember if Pfizer or Moderna) was also the one who wrote the editorial for the article on that journal, and also the editor in chief of the journal, and also part of the FDA commission that voted for approval (he voted in favor, do i need to say that?)19:42
LjLubLIX[m] has looked at that too, i don't know if he has been any more diligent than i have in actually trying to find confirmation of these alleged facts19:43
IndoAnonLjL: it reeks. 19:43
LjLbut anyway that's why, you see, i'm perfectly open to skepticism about the vaccines, and i think it's *inevitable* that there's going to be a push to deliver these vaccines considering governments and companies have put money in them and for mass-production before they were actually "known to work". which made sense in the emergency situation we have, but it still does mean we must be more vigilant about... uh, wishful thinking over efficacy/safety19:44
IndoAnonPeer review doesn't guarantee it's 100%right...19:44
LjLbut what i'm not open to is the way that "dead" person (and many others before) have joined in, raging on "why does everyone need to take the vaccine?!" before there's actually any mandate in place or seriously being discussed, and only really listening to themselves and not reading what others are writing19:45
IndoAnonTheir efficacy study is only from antibody titer, right,  LjL ?19:45
IndoAnonOh19:45
LjLwhenever i've joined a new channel i've usually tended to spend some *minutes*, at least, looking at what others were saying before posting a wall of text (and then i posted a wall of text, yes, i do that, obviously)19:45
IndoAnonHaha19:46
LjLIndoAnon, whose efficacy study? but anyway no, efficacy is based on how many people get the disease (usually based on PCR) in the vaccine arm vs the control arm19:46
IndoAnonMy guess is, he's just another people who speaks loud, without prior knowledge on the matter 19:46
IndoAnonNo19:47
LjLIndoAnon, but i ask whose because there is a further detail in that Pfizer and Moderna did not routinely PCR test everyone, but waited for people to report symptoms, and then only PCR'd *those*. on the other hand, Oxford/AstraZeneca routinely PCR'd everyone (every week, i think) so they also found asymptomatic cases, but anyway, their current analysis is based on *symptomatic* cases, so the efficacy data can be compared19:47
IndoAnonDidn't UK recently make pilot program on intentional   introduction to virions post vaccination?  despite making promise with open orphan® back in October or even August?19:48
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Swedish PM slammed for shopping tour amid latest Covid surge → https://is.gd/ocls8i19:48
LjL(also something that makes me feel slightly better about quieting such people early is that i *quiet* them, not ban them, and then hint that if they just wait ten minutes, or sometimes i say come back tomorrow, they can be unquieted and if they calm down they can state their position... but almost every time, they decide to leave right after i quiet them instead.)19:49
LjLIndoAnon, i don't know if they've *started* it, but it was definitely being discussed19:49
LjLi found that highly unethical19:49
LjLi don't know about promises they made though19:50
IndoAnonIt's totally ethical. They consented to it19:50
IndoAnonI appreciate your reasoning, LjL ... It's perfectly acceptable 19:51
IndoAnonLurking is good for both new participants and older one19:51
de-factoi dont get the structure of their second table, i call it a mess, maybe they should go over it again19:52
LjLde-facto, maybe next time they should do a PDF instead of failing at HTML19:52
de-factowhat are those numbers? percent? how many did participate?19:52
LjLde-facto, but i think the first (efficacy) table is a mess too, the first row only covers part of the table... although you can *guess* what it really refers to19:53
IndoAnonMy huge concern are... Whoever claimed to have appropriate vaccine, should get their vaccine tested by intentional infection to proof that the pathogens doesn't able to replicate inside the body for extended amount of time to claim it's a vaccine19:53
IndoAnon*ruly claimed that it works as vaccine19:54
LjLi really don't know. but de-facto, maybe if you just go back to reading the Lancet article, it'll do just as good... after all this is just a tweaking of numbers for approval. and the FDA did a much better (-looking, at least) job when they released their reports.19:54
de-factoyeah i think i am going to look at them in next year, maybe they go over their tables and actually put some names in their columns to say what their numbers actually refer to19:55
de-factoyeah id guess Lancet got a better standard, the would have outright rejected such a messy table19:55
LjLIndoAnon, eh, it's semantics, but i think it's still a vaccine if you can still get infected asymptomatically. yes, if you are *infectious*, that's a big practical difference, but you can't even determine that by just doing a PCR19:55
IndoAnonYe19:56
LjLde-facto, i forget, do we have a lengthy detailed approval document for Pfizer/BioNTech from the EMA? I have read the FDA one but then i sort of had a few days of not wanting to look at stuff19:56
IndoAnonAlthough,  PCR itself aren't perfect 19:56
LjL%links ema pfizer19:56
BrainstormLjL, https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-vaccine-candidate-against (Pfizer and BioNTech Announce Vaccine Candidate Against COVID-19 Achieved Success in First Interim Analysis from Phase 3 Study) in a press release where they state that their BNT162b2 vaccine has more than 90% efficacy, based on 94 participant who got COVID-19 [... want %more?]19:56
LjL%more19:56
BrainstormLjL, [...] epidemiologists suggested that generalized lockdowns were enacted without reliable supporting data. {{Cite web|last=Booth|first=William|date=8 May 2020|title=A tale of two epidemics: Scientists in Sweden and Britain fight over who took the right public health [...] → Internal Server Error19:56
BrainstormLjL, [...] during the trial, without any serious safety concerns; the article https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/11/09/vaccine-efficacy-data (Vaccine Efficacy Data!) by Derek Lowe provides an early opinion on these results → https://paste.ee/p/pGqfj19:56
LjLhonestly i just hope the EMA doesn't follow suit and approve AZ tomorrow or so. let them take their time.19:58
LjL(although the EU ordered too little Pfizer so we may also have to make do with whatever we can get, anyway :\)19:59
IndoAnonGiving them non conditional immunity against lawsuit is reaaaaly bad19:59
BrainstormUpdates for Spain: +15287 cases (now 1.9 million), +247 deaths (now 50689) since 23 hours ago — France: +143 deaths (now 64221) since 21 hours ago19:59
IndoAnonAlso20:00
de-factoafaik from the press conference today they expect the Moderna vaccine to get approved very soon (probably Januar 6th) 20:00
LjLIndoAnon, it's standard for vaccines in the US. but what location are you talking about? i'm interested in this but i actually haven't tried to find out whether the EU is going to give them immunity (i think in theory they can't, because the EUCJ ruled so...?). but the UK probably did, didn't it20:00
de-factobut the AstraZeneca probably needs some more time20:00
LjLde-facto, but we ordered an even smaller number of Moderna :\20:00
BrainstormNew from Lockdowns from Wikipedia: Arcahaeoindris: Arcahaeoindris: I have moved the efficacy and debate section to the top as I think this makes the article flow better by providing an overview of what lockdowns are before going into the list. → https://is.gd/uhc8nH20:00
de-factoto get approved by the EMA20:00
LjLde-facto, i think they should insist with AZ about making sense of this half-dose vs full-dose mess. they can't just swipe it under the rug and pretend they didn't make those claims before, and now just go ahead with "it's 70% effective, forget what we said before"20:01
de-factothe AstraZeneca vaccine is an important one, even if their trials did not went as smooth as they could have (though that is not really the fault of the vaccine substance but rather of the ones conducting the trials)20:02
de-factoyeah and with UK now really going forward we probably will see more data id guess20:03
de-factoso maybe thats the plan?20:03
de-factoas long as EMA is in rolling review with them they can ask for any data, so maybe they try to generate more?20:04
de-factothats just speculation of course20:04
de-factoDerek Lowe is in holiday break until Jan 2nd20:05
LjLde-facto, maybe, i don't know. my parents have been saying based on things they heard locally that the EMA have basically taken a longer time than the FDA to approve Pfizer (and Moderna hasn't come yet) not because they did a more thorough review, but just because of bureaucratic hurdles. of course this doesn't mean much since i don't know what *their* source is... but... i definitely don't find it hard to believe that bureaucracy slows things down in the 20:06
LjLEU ;(20:06
LjLHOW DARE HE, we need analyses!20:07
LjLstop his ski lift and drag him back to the laptop20:07
de-factono i dont think its due to bureaucratic hurdles, they just need their time and i am very much for not pressuring them20:08
LjLi hope so20:09
de-factoso far i think they do a very good job, both EMA and PEI as well as RKI20:10
de-factowith the planning for scaling production, well imho there was not invested enough in advance, but thats my opinion20:11
LjLhmm i remember a link that said the UK would need 2 million vaccinations a week to "outpace" the virus variant, but i can't find it in logs now. i don't think i clicked on it, i wanted to, but then i didn't, so i don't remember if it was an actual study or what20:11
de-factoits not known in advance which manufacturer will succeed and when, but still then they should have invested in all of them simultaneously 20:12
de-factoi do think its the right approach for EU to go forward together though, because obviously traveling also happens more or less unrestricted in Schengen20:13
de-factoactually we are quite lucky that there probably will be many vaccines available that are efficient to some degree20:14
de-factoand even if they cant prevent transmission completely, its not like a black or white kind of world, since infection probability depends on contamination dose and viral shedding on degree of immunity there are all shades of gray between sterilizing immunity and asymptomatic infections in terms of viral load shedding onto proximity of vaccinated individuals20:16
de-factothe vaccine efficiency in the most simple approach of endemic Reff = R0 (1 - v e) == 1 requiring a part of vaccinated v = (1 - R0) / (e R0)  for a vaccine efficiency of e to prevent transmission refers to the median value of such a distribution for preventing transmission that surely will start to get affected even by partial immunity from vaccination, e.g. less shedding for partial immune vaccinated of course already prevents 20:20
de-factotransmissions20:20
de-factowith the new variants though that R0 just might have gotten a raise, hence also the part v of vaccinated for the same median vaccine efficiency e to prevent transmission20:21
LjLde-facto, lol, i should have waited before quieting that person earlier, so you could give this wall-of-maths to them in response to their "it doesn't stop transmission" :P20:22
de-factohttps://virological.org/t/lineage-specific-growth-of-sars-cov-2-b-1-1-7-during-the-english-national-lockdown/57520:23
de-facto"We find strong and consistent evidence that B.1.1.7 proliferated (R>1) during the English lockdown in 86% (215/246) of lower tier local authorities with an average R value of 1.26. At the same time other lineages contracted (R<1) at an average R value of 0.86 in most regions, leading to 81% (200/246) of regions showing B.1.1.7 proliferation while other lineages diminished."20:24
de-factohttps://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map20:24
LjL:(20:31
LjLde-facto, i really don't know whether we should be happy that the EMA takes its time, or given this variant, we should hurry up20:32
LjLi don't mean it rhetorically, i really just don't know anymore20:32
LjLif even lockdowns don't work anymore with this variant... what can we really do except rushing to vaccinate20:33
de-factofull blown lockdowns20:35
de-factolike with hard curfew20:35
LjLde-facto, unless i'm mistaken, during the second wave, *no* European country has done a lockdown like Italy and Spain (and others) did during the first wave, where all workers were stay home except for the "essential" ones20:37
LjLi suspect it just isn't economically tenable, we'd just find the whole EU in poverty20:37
LjLi don't understand anything of economics, mind... but since they did it the first time, there must be a decent reason why they aren't doing it now20:37
BrainstormNew from In The Pipeline: Vaccine Roundup, Late December: There’s been a lot of news, so it’s time to survey the vaccine landscape. For this post, I’m only going to cover the big players that are either deep into human trials or have actually been rolling out vaccines to the general population – another post to come will go further down the [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/T1SB5Z20:38
LjLhah!20:40
LjLmaybe he's not quite on holiday yet20:40
LjL"It appears that the coronavirus variant first reported there is indeed more contagious: Trevor Bedford is convinced, and we have early data that would seem to only make sense if the R for this form is indeed higher."20:41
LjLso Lowe is convinced, there is no longer a debate!20:42
LjL"That situation in the UK appears to be one of the biggest factors driving the approval and rollout, and I see their point: this vaccine is indeed better than nothing, one shot for more people is likely to be better than two-shots-for-some, and it looks like they’re going to need all the help they can get."20:42
LjL"It’s a mess made worse by AstraZeneca, whose CEO has made statements about the vaccine’s efficacy that are not (so far) backed up by actual numbers." ← indeed those statements were shameful20:43
de-factoso if they say normally R = 0.86 and Rb113 = 1.26 this would mean an increase of m = 1.26/0.86 = 1.47 for R0, hence from Reff = Rb117 (1 - v e) = m R0 (1 - v e) we would require v = (Rb117 - Reff) / (e Rb117) = (m R0 - Reff) / (e m R0) = (R0 - Reff / m) / (e R0) = (R0 - 1/m) / (e R0) = (R0 - 1/1.47) / (e R0) vaccinated part of population20:43
LjL"Anyway, as you’ll recall, initially there was a hint that a lower first dose followed by a standard second dose might be more protective overall (although I don’t think the evidence for that is very strong at all, considering the statistical spread in the data). But now there’s a report that increased efficacy might be driven by an even longer wait between the two doses. I don’t find that evidence very compelling, either (we’re getting 20:45
LjLinto some pretty small subgroups by this point, and that is always a dangerous area to draw conclusions from)."20:45
de-factoso if they say normally R = 0.86 and Rb117 = 1.26 this would mean an increase of m = 1.26/0.86 = 1.47 for R0, hence from Reff = Rb117 (1 - v e) = m R0 (1 - v e) we would require v = (Rb117 - Reff) / (e Rb117) = (m R0 - Reff) / (e m R0) = (R0 - Reff / m) / (e R0) = (R0 - 1/m) / (e R0) = (R0 - 1/1.47) / (e R0) vaccinated part of population20:45
de-facto(corrected a typo)20:46
de-factowith Rb117 i mean the increased reproduction for SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant (aka UK mutant)20:46
de-factoR0 would be the reproduction for the "normal" wild type in an unaware (naive) fully susceptible population20:47
LjLhe doesn't say anything about Sanofi :\20:49
DocScrutinizer05I love equations, but those ^^^ simply got too many variables I don't now20:57
ArsaneritASCII is not great for representing equations.20:59
ArsaneritUnicode is only marginally better.20:59
ArsaneritI wouldn't recommend EBCDIC either.20:59
LjLyeah i hate to look like i'm just ignoring them but i cannot follow them. only partly due to ASCII, in good part due to just me and maths not getting along :P21:00
BrainstormNew from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Add end-of-2020 Derek Lowe vaccine roundup, and his "vaccine tightrop… → https://is.gd/i56aoS21:04
BrainstormUpdates for South Africa: +17710 cases (now 1.0 million), +465 deaths (now 28033) since 23 hours ago21:13
BrainstormNew from Lockdowns from Wikipedia: Edl-irishboy: /* Ireland */ Update irish lockdown: Ireland: Update irish lockdown ← Previous revision Revision as of 20:15, 30 December 2020 Line 147: Line 147: A third wave of COVID-19 arrived in Ireland on 21 December. {{cite news|url=https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40194933.html|title='Third wave clearly [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/uhc8nH21:16
de-facto.title https://imgur.com/a/H6uSr7t https://i.imgur.com/i74ZylN.png src: https://virological.org/t/lineage-specific-growth-of-sars-cov-2-b-1-1-7-during-the-english-national-lockdown/57521:18
Brainstormde-facto: From imgur.com: COVID-19 variant B.1.1.7: required vaccine efficiency by part of vaccinated population for reaching endemic state - Album on Imgur21:18
de-factoDocScrutinizer05, ^^ made a plot of it21:18
de-factoit shows the required vaccine efficiency e[v] preventing transmission for a vaccinated part v of population for the B.1.1.7 variant being 1.47 times more transmissible parameterized relative to reproduction R0 of "normal" wild type R0 = 2.5 ... 3.5 in steps of 0.121:20
de-factoi hope i did not make any mistake, i am quite exhausted today (idk why)21:21
de-factothe claim R0_b117 / R0 = 1.47 from above source21:23
de-factoi called it R0_b117 now to make it more clear its the base reproduction (in fully naive unaware population) for variant B.1.1.721:23
de-factosidenote: if we assume the lowest reproduction R0 = 2.5 (best case) of normal variant with that variant B.1.1.7 being 1.47 times more transmissible we already would require to vaccinate v = 100% of population if a vaccine could prevent transmission with e = 73% efficiency21:29
de-factowhile for same scenario with normal variant it only would need to have a prevention of transmission with an efficiency of e = 60%21:30
de-factothat is without any non-pharmaceutical interventions in an unaware (or ignorant) population21:31
BrainstormNew from "Cluster 5" on Wikipedia: 47.20.177.163 at 20:39, 30 December 2020: ← Previous revision Revision as of 20:39, 30 December 2020 Line 1: Line 1: {{short description|Variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus}} {{short description|Variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus}} {{use dmy dates|date=December 2020}} {{use dmy dates|date=December 2020}} − "'''Cluster [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/74bzDF21:41
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Information for Healthcare Professionals on COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca (80 votes) | https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/regulatory-approval-of-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca/information-for-healthcare-professionals-on-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca | https://redd.it/kn0ira21:44
de-factohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fn3KWM1kuAw21:51
de-facto.title https://imgur.com/a/6wo10v1 https://i.imgur.com/YnYypYF.png 22:15
Brainstormde-facto: From imgur.com: COVID-19 variant B.1.1.7: required vaccine efficiency by part of vaccinated population for reaching endemic state compared to normal variant - Album on Imgur22:15
de-factoComparison for reaching endemic state between normal and B.1.1.7 variant: required suppression of transmission by vaccine efficiency e[v] for given vaccinated part v of population for assumed scenarios where normal variant would have R0 = 2.5 ... 3.5 in steps of 0.122:18
de-factoso both set of curves refer to the same transmission scenarios while orange represents the normal variant while red represents the B.1.1.7 variant22:20
BrainstormUpdates for Netherlands: +8231 cases (now 787928) since 21 hours ago22:34
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: One care worker remains in German hospital after vaccine overdose → https://is.gd/PHlFDk22:56
BrainstormUpdates for Spain: +1940 cases (now 1.9 million) since 3 hours ago23:17
BrainstormNew from FDA Press Releases: FDA: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: December 30, 2020 → https://is.gd/Rb0DcQ23:21

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