Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: U.S. may cut some Moderna vaccine doses in half to speed rollout, official says β https://is.gd/Y93O3K | 00:36 |
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bn_mobile | Hey LjL π, how have you been? | 00:42 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Norway imposes new restrictions to halt third coronavirus wave β https://is.gd/Sn8rLs | 00:48 |
LjL-Matrix | bn_mobile: feeling like impending doom, but apart from that, fine | 00:57 |
gigasu_shida | lol | 01:35 |
gigasu_shida | i think we're all getting anxiety | 01:35 |
LjL | gigasu_shida, i broke a tooth in the process | 01:39 |
LjL | if my dentist is right that i clenched my jaw enough to break it | 01:39 |
gigasu_shida | in your sleep? | 01:39 |
LjL | then yeah, i guess, a small amount of anxiety | 01:39 |
LjL | i am not really sure | 01:39 |
gigasu_shida | i have been grinding my teeth at night also | 01:39 |
LjL | to me it feels like it happened over some longer amount of time | 01:39 |
LjL | but that's my dentist's theory | 01:39 |
Brainstorm | Updates for France: +7979 cases (now 2.7 million), +122 deaths (now 65043) since 23 hours ago β Canada: +11294 cases (now 601653), +150 deaths (now 15865) since 8 hours ago β Germany: +7513 cases (now 1.8 million), +352 deaths (now 35105) since 19 hours ago β Netherlands: +8008 cases (now 823206), +41 deaths (now 11636) since 23 hours ago | 01:40 |
LjL | but for a few days it wasn't right, and it was progressively less... right, until it became clear it had split in two | 01:40 |
ubLIX[m] | your jaw? | 01:40 |
LjL | yeah? | 01:40 |
gigasu_shida | if you feel very little pain it means your tooth was weakened over a long period of time. my dad had that | 01:40 |
LjL | gigasu_shida, the tooth had had a root canal years ago, so all the pain was from the gums and/or nearby teeth | 01:41 |
gigasu_shida | oh ok | 01:41 |
gigasu_shida | do you have long roots? | 01:41 |
LjL | that tooth did i think | 01:41 |
gigasu_shida | i assume it was a molar | 01:41 |
ubLIX[m] | just got here. i read initially that you broke your jaw. but i think you are speaking of your tooth | 01:41 |
LjL | yes it was the first molar, sadly. he showed me on the x-rays and explained he had to be very careful with not breaking the longest root because it almost went into the nasal sinus cavity and if it snapped there, he wouldn't be able to retrieve it | 01:42 |
LjL | ubLIX[m], yes, a tooth, that i presumably broke by clenching my jaw | 01:42 |
LjL | perhaps maybe | 01:42 |
LjL | although i think the primary reason for its ultimate demise was that the dentist who originally did the root canal was a dog | 01:43 |
LjL | (ok, the *ultimate* reason was that i needed a root canal in the first place) | 01:43 |
gigasu_shida | that woulda been bad....to have a root fragment stuck in you | 01:44 |
gigasu_shida | did you have poor mineralization as a kid? | 01:44 |
gigasu_shida | like a poor diet | 01:44 |
gigasu_shida | yeah i had a dentist that did a pretty deep filling on me (he said it was almost a root canal) and he did it like in 5 minutes almost | 01:45 |
LjL | i was very picky with my food as a kid and also had a lot of food allergy issues, so maybe | 01:45 |
gigasu_shida | it was a super fast filling job. he didn't seem to take much time getting rid of debris and drying it off before applying the epoxy | 01:45 |
LjL | gigasu_shida, this one was talking on the phone about his yacht and shit while drilling into my tooth | 01:46 |
gigasu_shida | so i switched dentists and asked about that tooth, luckily the next dentist said it had not started rotting or anything | 01:46 |
gigasu_shida | but it's good to find a dentist who will take his/her time when it comes to cleaning out debris before applying epoxy | 01:46 |
LjL | current dentist cannot really say tooo much about that old dentist, because it was in the same practice | 01:46 |
LjL | but i did bring it up last time when he pulled this tooth | 01:46 |
gigasu_shida | lol talking on the phone is nuts | 01:46 |
LjL | and he was like "eeeeeeh those were difficult times" | 01:46 |
gigasu_shida | wtf | 01:47 |
LjL | well basically i've always gone to the same practice | 01:47 |
LjL | but the dentist i had as a kid, who was the owner, died suddenly at 52 | 01:47 |
LjL | his wife continued the practice, but she's not a dentist, so she hired various dentists over time | 01:48 |
LjL | the current dentist is his son, but back then he was barely in university | 01:48 |
gigasu_shida | kids who inherit a family business usually don't run it as well, just my experience | 01:49 |
LjL | well, going to a random new place could be better or could be worse | 01:50 |
LjL | when they had that dentist who was really bad, after a few bad experiences my whole family had, we just asked them to please book us with another dentist | 01:51 |
LjL | and i guess eventually enough people did that, that they realized he was bad and let him go | 01:51 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: India bans export of Covid vaccine β https://is.gd/S2MBZY | 02:01 |
LjL | bye bye AstraZeneca | 02:06 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Barbados: +161 cases (now 556) since 2 days ago | 02:11 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Global coronavirus cases reach 84.8 million β https://is.gd/LQh6zr | 02:13 |
LjL | how is that even news, or significant -.- | 02:17 |
LjL | "coronavirus cases are now a prime number" | 02:17 |
gigasu_shida | talking on the phone while filling cavities or doing root canals...lol | 02:24 |
gigasu_shida | how in the world do you get away with that | 02:24 |
gigasu_shida | i hope he was using speakerphone | 02:24 |
LjL | you'll hate the answer to that | 02:25 |
LjL | i distinctly remember he was holding the phone between his shoulder and his ear | 02:25 |
gigasu_shida | you can't really chew him out either because....you're having a root canal | 02:25 |
gigasu_shida | lol that takes talent doesn't it | 02:25 |
gigasu_shida | dude should be a street performer | 02:25 |
LjL | with any luck that's his new career | 02:26 |
gigasu_shida | italy creates so many monopolies for certain sectors | 02:26 |
gigasu_shida | it's stupid | 02:26 |
gigasu_shida | it's changing but it was so bad before | 02:26 |
LjL | try to tell taxis their licenses are worth nothing now... they will blockade motorways and entrances to cities, and that has repercussions | 02:27 |
gigasu_shida | the fucking taxi system was god awful. the medallions were limited and were passed down from generation to generation thus creating a monopolistic situation. | 02:27 |
gigasu_shida | hahaha funny | 02:27 |
LjL | i'm not kidding, they did that | 02:27 |
gigasu_shida | making dentists become a doctor before going to dental school was another sort of weird system that creates a dearth of dentists | 02:29 |
gigasu_shida | i bet italy has all sorts of problems like that still | 02:29 |
LjL | i don't know about that | 02:29 |
LjL | maybe it's because it's the way i've always known it to be (before they changed), but i don't really understand why a dentist should *not* have to be a medical doctor | 02:29 |
LjL | they're definitely doing medical things inside your tissues | 02:30 |
LjL | and they are pretty scary things too sometimes! | 02:30 |
LjL | i don't like how dentists are separate from the rest of healthcare, in general | 02:30 |
gigasu_shida | they should have knowledge about stuff like that but that doesn't mean they need to separately go through doctor schooling | 02:30 |
LjL | it's *the* one thing (together with prescription glasses i guess) that a majority of the population will need to deal with even if not particularly sick | 02:30 |
LjL | and yet, public healthcare almost doesn't provide dentistry at all | 02:31 |
gigasu_shida | it can be made to be part of dental school....a compressed version | 02:31 |
LjL | (i.e. they'll give you an appointment for when your tooth is rotting and they will extract it) | 02:31 |
gigasu_shida | yeah that's true...hmm | 02:31 |
LjL | gigasu_shida, why should my GP go to the full medical school, when the most she'll ever do to my body is palpate my tummy or listen to my heart? | 02:31 |
LjL | a dentist does much more sensitive things | 02:32 |
gigasu_shida | good point also | 02:32 |
gigasu_shida | but i'm agreeing with you mostly | 02:32 |
gigasu_shida | the GP should just go to a 3 year school | 02:32 |
LjL | 3 years sounds a bit like on the low side | 02:32 |
gigasu_shida | while dental school should be 4 years with a compressed version of medical school that doesn't have the full anatomy courses | 02:32 |
LjL | right now it's 6 years | 02:32 |
LjL | and then more years if you get a specialization | 02:32 |
gigasu_shida | that's too long | 02:32 |
LjL | maybe in practice the "shortened" version of dentistry will work better, i don't know, it just doesn't seem to make much *logical* sense to me. but sometimes logic is beaten by reality | 02:33 |
gigasu_shida | you'll have a dearth of doctors and an even bigger dearth of specialized docs like dermatologists | 02:33 |
LjL | but i'd also like to have doctors with a clue | 02:33 |
LjL | the current ones already sometimes barely seem to have one! | 02:33 |
gigasu_shida | lol | 02:34 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: A top Swedish official involved in the coronavirus response has defended a Christmas holiday in the Canary Islands in the face of heavy criticism. β https://is.gd/jLwlCq | 02:37 |
gigasu_shida | uh oh, cutting vaccine dosages in half to get more ppl the vaccine | 02:38 |
LjL | who is? | 02:40 |
LjL | or, should i ask, who is the utter moron suggesting this, and where? | 02:41 |
LjL | also where is their car parked? | 02:41 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine rollout to begin: More than half a million doses of the newly-approved coronavirus vaccine are ready for use on Monday. β https://is.gd/Opqxdq | 03:02 |
de-facto | yay another one rolling out, thats good news | 03:29 |
de-facto | i hope they stick to the dosing schemes | 03:30 |
de-facto | i think i only would accept a vaccination offer if i was guaranteed to get the second shot just as tested in the trials, if they would only offer me one dose i would suggest them to give it to someone else as a booster dose in time of the correct scheme | 03:34 |
de-facto | they discuss this in German news also, i get furiously angry about such stupidities, some people should not even allowed to open their mouths as obviously what comes out is counter productive for everyone listening | 03:37 |
de-facto | its so simple: we have a vaccine, we have a tested scheme to apply it. if we want to ensure safety and not undermine trust we MUST stick to evidence based medicine. Experimenting with mass vaccination is beyond futile imho. | 03:38 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: South African Covid variant could be resistant to vaccine, expert warns β https://is.gd/neiJHR | 03:39 |
de-facto | and btw problems arent solved by simple doubling or getting an additional dose out of the vials. problems would be solved with ramping up production capacity without compromising quality assurance. this would allow for orders of magnitude and that would be significant | 03:43 |
ubLIX[m] | clicking through the Brainstorm link above: "It might take a month, or six weeks, to get a new vaccine, so everybody should stay calm. It's going to be fine," he said. "But we're now in a game of cat and mouse, because these are not the only two variants we're going to see. We're going to see lots of variants." | 03:48 |
ubLIX[m] | 20 years ago the idea it was impossible to cure a common cold (ok, a coronavirus) was a meme | 03:49 |
ubLIX[m] | now in this subset we're at a month or six weeks | 03:49 |
ubLIX[m] | for a recoding to account for newly sequenced variant | 03:50 |
ubLIX[m] | from the Ministry of Looking at the Bright Side of a Train wreck | 03:50 |
de-facto | i think we need a feedback loop, sequencing of 1% of all tests, pooling those sequences together and constantly integrate them into the newest mRNA "polyclonal" mix, that way new variants always would be surrounded by an army of diverse antibodies against most recent variants | 03:51 |
de-facto | if feedback loop time is shorter than average time for escape mutants to occur it might work | 03:52 |
de-facto | yet imho incidence should be brought down by absolute strict lockdown without any exceptions. only then it can be hold down and attack surface for breeding escape mutants be minimized | 03:53 |
LjL | ubLIX[m], i don't really understand those "it's just six weeks" statements though. it's six weeks to tweak the vaccine. it's NOT six weeks to throw the existing vaccine into the sewer and start mass producing the new version. | 03:53 |
ubLIX[m] | LjL: indeed. just felt like a bright side aside. you have to admit it is miraculous. ok, now we can go back to recognising such change of vaccine code presents a logistical nightmare | 03:54 |
LjL | it's mRNAculous | 03:55 |
LjL | unless it's AZ, in which case, i'm sorry | 03:55 |
ubLIX[m] | a computer in everyone's home is yesterday's (yestermillennium's?) news. can we skip to the part where we have a vaccine printer in everyone's home | 03:56 |
ubLIX[m] | scratch that. 7 billion bioterrorists is probably a bad idea | 03:57 |
de-facto | if production capacity is there and delivery time from production to injection held short (probably is given the demand for it and the cold storage requirements), why not replace the monoclonal DNA templates in their production facilities with a constantly updated mix of polyclonal DNA templates? | 03:57 |
de-facto | why not build local production centers producing vaccines from the local currently circulating variants and the companies ensuring the production process quality? give them the highest possible (wartime alike) priority to acquire any resource they need for achieving that working in shifts 24/7 on integrating the newest (local) variants into the immune capabilities of people. Make traveling absolutely illegal, especially over long distances. | 04:07 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +10356 cases (now 1.8 million) since 21 hours ago | 04:08 |
de-facto | And all that under lockdown conditions, working on this should be the only exception for leaving the home | 04:09 |
euod[m] | de-facto: there's at least some limit on raw materials. | 04:09 |
euod[m] | what those are exactly is anybodies guess. | 04:10 |
de-facto | and we need to come up with some scheme to test quickly for the safety of such feedback loops, because we cant afford to have a full phase III trial with months of delay for each such modification | 04:14 |
de-facto | like the vaccination platform safety is tested and then somehow the small modifications to the S-protein must be tested much quicker | 04:15 |
de-facto | id guess for the safety itself those small modifications dont play as big of a role as the vaccine platform itself but that should be evaluated by the real experts | 04:16 |
de-facto | imho we always need to stick to evidence based medicine relying on significant stats | 04:16 |
de-facto | establishing a universal platform (mRNA) for such feedback loops to wrestle down a spreading phylogenetic tree of a pathogen would be of great future value also for preparedness to future unknown pathogens that may require even quicker reaction times and feedback loops (due to higher mutation rates) | 04:19 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Japan PM says to consider state of emergency in Tokyo area as covid cases surge β https://is.gd/VXvMbs | 05:17 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: A teacher whose class video made her a national sensation dies from Covid-19 at 35. (45524 votes) | https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/03/world/a-teacher-whose-class-video-made-her-a-national-sensation-dies-from-covid-19-at-35.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur | https://redd.it/kpljz8 | 05:20 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Larry King has been hospitalised after contracting COVID-19 (29798 votes) | https://www.nme.com/news/tv/larry-king-has-been-hospitalised-after-contracting-covid-19-2847442 | https://redd.it/kp640m | 05:21 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Covid-19: Asymptomatic cases may not be infectious, Wuhan study indicates (267 votes) | https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4695 | https://redd.it/kpv0cd | 05:21 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: COVID-19 severity impacts on long-term neurological manifestation after hospitalisation (306 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.27.20248903v1 | https://redd.it/kpljus | 05:21 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Prevalence of Long COVID symptoms (397 votes) | https://www.ons.gov.uk/news/statementsandletters/theprevalenceoflongcovidsymptomsandcovid19complications | https://redd.it/kpfs8i | 05:21 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Formulation of a composite nasal spray enabling enhanced surface coverage and prophylaxis of SARS-COV-2 (99 votes) | https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.18.388645v1 | https://redd.it/kpejg0 | 05:21 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: COVID-19 vaccination β for immediate action (140 votes) | https://www.england.nhs.uk/coronavirus/wp-content/uploads/sites/52/2020/12/C0994-System-letter-COVID-19-vaccination-deployment-planning-30-December-2020.pdf | https://redd.it/kp6bx1 | 05:21 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +842 cases (now 650011), +57 deaths (now 19701) since a day ago | 05:48 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Australian Open quarantine plan facing legal challenge - report β https://is.gd/yGSGkw | 06:18 |
gigasu_shida | ljl https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2021-01-03/us-may-cut-some-moderna-vaccine-doses-in-half-to-speed-rollout-official-says | 06:24 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Thailand: +745 cases (now 8439), +1 deaths (now 65) since 23 hours ago | 07:02 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Arizona, United States: +17234 cases (now 556384) since 23 hours ago β South Carolina, United States: +8951 cases (now 321669), +84 deaths (now 5469) since 23 hours ago β Washington, United States: +8644 cases (now 255396) since 2 days ago β Oklahoma, United States: +8017 cases (now 304072), +20 deaths (now 2547) since 23 hours ago | 07:14 |
Brainstorm | New preprint: Direct detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA using high-contrast pH-sensitive dyes by Timothy A Brown et al, made available as preprint on 2021-01-03 at https://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.12.26.20248878 [... want %more?] | 07:18 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: βPivotal momentβ as Britain set to roll out AstraZeneca vaccine β https://is.gd/rIdzEF | 07:19 |
xsperry | thoughts? https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4037 | 07:25 |
xsperry | "Will covid-19 vaccines save lives? Current trials arenβt designed to tell us | 07:26 |
xsperry | " | 07:26 |
xsperry | "None of the trials currently under way are designed to detect a reduction in any serious outcome such as hospital admissions, use of intensive care, or deaths. Nor are the vaccines being studied to determine whether they can interrupt transmission of the virus." | 07:26 |
ubLIX[m] | the endpoint "Prevention of symptomatic disease in vaccine recipient" seems by logical necessity to imply and wholly encompass the non-explicit endpoint "Reduction in severe covid-19 (hospital admission, ICU, or death)" | 07:42 |
ubLIX[m] | last i heard (though i am ready to be corrected) the shortcomings stemming from the extensive trial exclusion criteria have not been repaired | 08:10 |
ubLIX[m] | xsperry: i suggest re-posting the link between 9am and noon, or between 9pm and 3am (western Europe time) when the channel is more active, for a better chance at garnering discussion | 08:12 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Biological weapons lab leaked virus, claims US: Subscribe to The Australian | Newspaper home delivery, website, iPad, iPhone & Android apps β https://is.gd/8AAucU | 08:33 |
Brainstorm | New from Emma Hodcroft: @firefoxx66: The impacts of 'longer period' between vaccines on viral evolution is unknown. So is the impact of rolling out a vaccine to part of the population while the virus circulates widely.But one thing can help both: get case numbers as low as possible, & keep them there π#SARSCoV2 β https://is.gd/iEiR7R | 09:10 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: Brian Pinker, 82, first to get Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine: Dialysis patient Brian Pinker, 82, is vaccinated with the Covid-19 vaccine at Oxford University Hospital. β https://is.gd/Opqxdq | 09:22 |
Brainstorm | New from NPR: China Reports Tens Of Thousands Inoculated In First Days Of COVID-19 Vaccine Campaign: Beijing says it has vaccinated more than 73,000 people in the two days since China's first domestic coronavirus vaccine was approved for commercial use. β https://is.gd/ppDwBD | 09:47 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: Brian Pinker, 82, first to get Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine: The retired maintenance manager, a dialysis patient, had the Covid-19 jab at Oxford's Churchill Hospital. β https://is.gd/Opqxdq | 09:59 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Brazil private clinics seek deal for Indian COVID vaccine: A Brazilian association of private health clinics said Sunday it was negotiating with Indian pharmaceutical firm Bharat Biotech to buy five million doses of its COVID-19 vaccine, which India has just authorized for emergency use. β https://is.gd/8x73Ja | 10:11 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Canada surges from 500,000 to 600,000 COVID-19 cases in two weeks: Canada surpassed the grim milestone of 600,000 coronavirus cases Sunday, two weeks after passing half a million, underscoring the pandemic's persistence in the country during the end-of-year holiday period. β https://is.gd/ekPqWI | 10:23 |
Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Five key milestones in the Covid-19 pandemic that weβre anticipating in 2021: By late January, 400,000 Americans will have died of Covid-19. Can the new president and vaccines appreciably change the situation in time for the Olympics and the holidays in 2021? β https://is.gd/kvuwiT | 10:36 |
Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Health: βStill waiting for my turnβ: Primary care doctors are being left behind in the vaccine rollout β https://is.gd/LybIpp | 10:48 |
Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Health: How it started: A Q&A with Helen Branswell, one year after Covid-19 became a full-time job β https://is.gd/DaM4n7 | 11:14 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: 'More than a whole seat': 57,000 postal votes rejected amid pandemic-era surge β https://is.gd/kaT9V1 | 11:27 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: New research may explain severe virus attacks on the lungs: In some cases, immune cells in the lungs can contribute to worsening a virus attack. In a new study, researchers at Karolinska Institutet in Sweden describe how immune cells called macrophages develop in the lungs and which of them may be behind severe lung diseases. [... want %more?] β https://is.gd/l06xLP | 11:40 |
Brainstorm | New from ScienceNews: What the pandemic can teach us about ways to reduce air pollution: Data collected during COVID-19 shutdowns may help tease out the complicated chemistry that brews poor air quality. β https://is.gd/4hANAl | 12:05 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Destination of the week: Sydneyβs Opera House to reopen to masked audiences after being shut since March 2020 β https://is.gd/8OEmPG | 12:17 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Slovakia: +636 cases (now 188099), +204 deaths (now 2521) since a day ago | 12:18 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +9947 cases (now 1.8 million) since 23 hours ago | 13:14 |
Brainstorm | New from Virological.org: Emergence of Y543F and Ξ69-70HV mutations in a lymphoma patient with long-term COVID-19: Bazykin GA1,2*, Stanevich O3,4*, Danilenko D4, Fadeev A4, Komissarova K4, Ivanova A4, Sergeeva M4, Safina K1,2, Nabieva E1, Klink G2, Garushyants S2, Zabutova J5, Kholodnaia A3,5, Skorokhod I5, Ryabchikova VV5 , Komissarov A4, Lioznov [... want %more?] β https://is.gd/RbLpk4 | 13:30 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Covid: Brian Pinker, 82, first to get Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine β https://is.gd/Opqxdq | 13:42 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Covid: 'No question' restrictions will be tightened, says Boris Johnson β https://is.gd/bYkp8q | 13:55 |
DocScrutinizer05 | hmm >>We report a genomic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 from a lymphoma patient with long-term COVID-19. This genome is characterized by an independent gain of 18 new mutations over more than 4 months of the disease. These include the S:Y453F and Ξ69-70HV mutations (βthe ΞF combinationβ) which have formerly been associated with mink-related clusters. Both of these mutations are found at intermediate frequencies in the patient, | 14:38 |
DocScrutinizer05 | representing a case of intra-host polymorphism.<< (from Virological.org: Emergence of Y543F and Ξ69-70HV...) | 14:38 |
DocScrutinizer05 | >>Independent acquisition of an identical pair of mutations in a mink and a lymphoma patient, and between multiple immunosuppressed patients, suggests concordant changes in selection<< | 14:40 |
DocScrutinizer05 | this is russia with bad news for you... | 14:44 |
DocScrutinizer05 | :-( | 14:44 |
Arsanerit | I don't get it, what is the bad news? | 14:46 |
de-facto | so it turns out the isolation of the risk groups is not only of importance for their own health but also for the public in regards to emergence of those scary mutants | 14:46 |
genera | what did they do? sequence the lymphoma patient multiple times over multiple months? and only one patient? | 14:53 |
DocScrutinizer05 | genera: yes, and found 18 mutations, some of them pretty "scary" | 14:57 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Colchester Hospital: Covid deniers removed from 'at capacity' hospital β https://is.gd/0sCNga | 14:57 |
DocScrutinizer05 | bottom line: long term covid in patients with weak or suppressed immune system may cause lots of mutants | 14:58 |
DocScrutinizer05 | this suggests reconsideration of the d4elayed-second-shot strategy which would lead to poor immunisation after first shot | 14:59 |
DocScrutinizer05 | in my book at least | 14:59 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Vitamin D is effective for COVID-19: meta analysis of 36 studies (82 votes) | https://vdmeta.com/ | https://redd.it/kq6i44 | 15:00 |
de-facto | i wonder how similar the mutations form independent cases of immunocompromised escape mutants would be, it seems some of those mutations are appearing again and again independently | 15:01 |
DocScrutinizer05 | that's exactly the point of this study, it seems those mutations are "convergent" | 15:02 |
de-facto | would that allow for a statistic and maybe even a prediction of mutation trajectory hence if vaccines would include such point mutations prior to them occuring they could be prevented from spreading in time they occur independently again because by then herd immunity by vaccines including those already would have been established? | 15:02 |
DocScrutinizer05 | the mink mutation appearing again and again | 15:02 |
DocScrutinizer05 | yes | 15:02 |
de-facto | probably not exactly that easy, yet still i wonder if something like that would be possible to some extend | 15:02 |
DocScrutinizer05 | it probably is well possible | 15:03 |
DocScrutinizer05 | and I think ought be done | 15:03 |
genera | i only read diagonylly but i dont see how this patient was immunocompromict and or long covid. she had rituximab and she suffered a cancer | 15:07 |
DocScrutinizer05 | indeed, I think I read it somewhere but no details later on, or I mixed up sth | 15:08 |
genera | it is them who mention long covid | 15:10 |
de-facto | we definitely need more sampling especially now when vaccinations begin, just to monitor how the phylogenetic tree reacts to that | 15:10 |
de-facto | much more full sequencing just like the Brits do it | 15:10 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +9665 cases (now 461961) since 13 hours ago β Lithuania: +1360 cases (now 147997), +307 deaths (now 1950) since a day ago | 15:12 |
DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: as I said yesterday(?): full sequencing of every detected covid in a vaccinated person | 15:13 |
DocScrutinizer05 | we need to know what's the reason of those 5% immunization failures | 15:14 |
de-facto | well yeah but also some random sampling alike sequencing to get the "ground floor" of current variants circulating, just for normalization | 15:14 |
de-facto | yes definitely | 15:14 |
de-facto | RKI Germany COVID-19 2021-01-04 (new years delayed reporting?): Weekly Indicende 139.4/100k, Infections +9847 (1775513 total), Fatalities +302 (34574 total), COVID@ICU 5730 (incl. 3209 on ventilator) | 15:16 |
de-facto | i wonder how long the delayed reporting effects will still remain hence at which point in time we might be able to be happy about such numbers | 15:17 |
de-facto | relative to the direct past that is of course | 15:17 |
DocScrutinizer05 | and yes, the vaccine should already get tuned to be *more* effective on the Y453F and Ξ69-70HV mutation than on the genuine wuhan type | 15:18 |
de-facto | yeah and N501Y too | 15:18 |
DocScrutinizer05 | :nod: | 15:18 |
DocScrutinizer05 | >>wonder how long<< at least til end of this week | 15:19 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: 'Warp speed' officials say U.S. COVID vaccine distribution too slow: Even though 11.4 million doses of the approved Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines had been distributed across the United States by Monday morning, just 2.1 million had made it into the arms of high-risk Americans. β https://is.gd/UjaC06 | 15:22 |
iz | federal plan is pretty much give it to the states and then it's up to them to figure it out! | 15:24 |
de-facto | mutations found in sequences (hence depending on sequencing frequency): https://paste.gg/p/anonymous/c495b66990e947958436e150bf0669c8 | 15:26 |
DocScrutinizer05 | same in germany, with same results: some 10 to 20% of available doses used so far | 15:26 |
de-facto | Mutation freq: S477N: 16914; N439K: 5722; N501Y: 4362; Y453F: 968; E484K: 310; K417N: 218; T478I: 205; S494P: 164; S477I: 160; G446V: 59; F490S: 54; N501T: 48; L455F: 45; E484Q: 45; G476S: 43; S477R: 41; G485R: 38; A475V: 37; F486L: 32; T478R: 21; T478K: 20; Y505W: 19; Q506K: 15; V445A: 15; F490L: 15; R403K: 14; Q493L: 12; P499S: 11; E484A: 10; S494L: 10; V503F: 9; S477R: 9; G446S: 8; N501S: 8; V445I: 6; | 15:28 |
de-facto | S494A: 6; G504D: 5; N487I: 4; N439K: 3; S477G: 3; Q493K: 3; F490V: 3; K458N: 3; V445F: 3; Y505H: 3; G476A: 3; K458R: 3; E484D: 3; G485S: 2; F486L: 2; K458Q: 2; V503I: 2; K417R: 2; N437S: 2; T500I: 2; G446W: 2; Q506P: 2; F490L: 2; V445W: 2; E484G: 2; Q506H: 2; S477T: 2; P499H: 2; Q498H: 2; E484R: 2; P499L: 2; G446A: 2; F456L: 2; T478A: 2; G446D: 2; Y489H: 2; | 15:28 |
de-facto | G504V: 1; G485T: 1; Y449N: 1; G504N: 1; N487H: 1; Y495N: 1; G476F: 1; L455W: 1; F486L: 1; F497L: 1; C488V: 1; G496C: 1; T500S: 1; Y495S: 1; Y473F: 1; R403S: 1; Y495F: 1; Y449F: 1; N501R: 1; V503L: 1; P499R: 1; P499H: 1; F490L: 1; G485R: 1; G502D: 1; Q493H: 1; R403T: 1; S477K: 1; Y505E: 1; E484D: 1; A475S: 1; T500P: 1; S477N: 1; Y489T: 1; N501I: 1; C488W: 1; C488R: 1; N437I: 1; E484R: 1; Q498P: 1; E484V: 1; N487K: 1; G502R: 1; V503L: 1; | 15:28 |
de-facto | F486I: 1; G485V: 1; F497I: 1; G502C: 1; Q493R: 1; | 15:28 |
de-facto | so at least the most frequent ones should be included in a vaccine sequence imho | 15:29 |
de-facto | but of course that depends on location of sampling and how frequently such sequences are taken, e.g. UK probably is over-represented due to their very good sequencing in comparison to most other EU countries | 15:30 |
genera | they should start making a vax! o wait | 15:31 |
kara[m] | I'm reading the infectivity rate is 3x higher with the variant, is that accurate? | 15:32 |
DocScrutinizer05 | means? 15%? | 15:32 |
DocScrutinizer05 | which variant? | 15:32 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I guess nobody really knows so far | 15:33 |
DocScrutinizer05 | there should be neutralizing tests done by vaccinated person antibodies against the new variant, by now. They will give a hint | 15:34 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Tips for making 2021 a healthier year: A New Year's resolution to take better care of yourself is one you should keep, especially in the era of COVID-19. β https://is.gd/39IG8X | 15:35 |
Atque | DocScrutinizer05: Do you know w here we'd find the results of those tests? | 15:44 |
DocScrutinizer05 | sorry no idea really | 15:45 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I only seem to recall I heard they planned to do those neutralizing tests a 2 weeks ago and by now the results were supposed to be available | 15:45 |
DocScrutinizer05 | nobody expects any surprise from that though | 15:46 |
DocScrutinizer05 | common sense being: the vaccine will be as effective against the new variants as it is against all previously tested variants | 15:47 |
Brainstorm | New from Emma Hodcroft: @firefoxx66: R to @firefoxx66: Getting a lot of responses to this so let me clarify: The seasonality comes from human changes in behaviour, not changes in the virus. It was aided in 2020 by the spring lockdowns. Warmer weather can *help* us control transmission more easily - but it won't save us by itself. β https://is.gd/iVMCME | 15:48 |
DocScrutinizer05 | the "attack surface" for the vaccine / antibodies / immune reaction being large compared to the relatively tiny mutations | 15:48 |
de-facto | afaik one of six binding epitopes is thought to have mutated away in the UK variant | 15:53 |
de-facto | %papers B.1.1.7 | 15:58 |
Brainstorm | de-facto, 5 papers: The high infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 is associated with increased interaction force between Spike-ACE2 caused by the viral N501Y mutation by Jadson C Santos et al, made available as preprint on 2021-01-01 at https://biorxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.12.29.424708 [... want %more?] | 15:58 |
de-facto | %more | 15:58 |
Brainstorm | de-facto, [...] Design of Specific Primer Set for Detection of B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2 Variant using Deep Learning by Alejandro Lopez-Rincon et al, made available as preprint on 2020-12-29 at https://biorxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.12.29.424715 [...] β https://paste.ee/p/gWanS | 15:58 |
Brainstorm | de-facto, [...] D3,4 1 Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology (Skoltech), Moscow, Russia 2 A.A. Kharkevich Institute for Information Transmission Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia 3 First Pavlov State Medical University, Saint-Petersburg, Russia 4 Smorodintsev Research Institute of Influenza, Saint-Petersburg, Russia 5 City Hospital [...] β https://paste.ee/p/EwD2R | 15:58 |
DocScrutinizer05 | hmmm >>The seasonality comes from human changes in behaviour, not changes in the virus<< well, the second part for sure is true, the first part is maybe only one part of the whole story. What about UV light? | 16:00 |
DocScrutinizer05 | what about hot wet vs cold dry air | 16:00 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Austria scraps plan to ease lockdown after testing row: Austria's government on Monday effectively extended its third coronavirus lockdown, scrapping a proposal that would have allowed citizens to access some services if they took part in a mass-testing programme. β https://is.gd/aMEzHO | 16:00 |
de-facto | well the seasonality already may be included in the SARS-CoV-2 properties, just like they are in the HKU1-CoV or E229-CoV sequences | 16:02 |
de-facto | no changes to the sequence required for that | 16:02 |
DocScrutinizer05 | hmm? | 16:09 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: 5 things to do while you wait for the COVID-19 vaccine: Even as vaccinations against COVID-19 begin, the virus continues to kill thousands of Americans every day, making it more important than ever to stay safe and be ready in case it strikes you or your family. β https://is.gd/l2j7no | 16:13 |
de-facto | the virus itself already got properties that make its spread dependent on seasons, e.g. already could be observed in the TΓΆnnies cluster that it spreads better in the cold dry atmosphere, no changes required for that afaik | 16:13 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I think nobody honestly assumed the virus would change its genome by sun bath | 16:16 |
de-facto | much more interesting are the changes due to rise of selection pressure | 16:17 |
DocScrutinizer05 | and the cold dry air effect is pretty much orthogonal to virus genome anyway | 16:17 |
de-facto | yeah its just given fact, we cant influence that hence have to deal with it | 16:18 |
DocScrutinizer05 | yes, but I miss how that's related to what Hodcroft or I said | 16:19 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: A Continent Where the Dead Are Not Counted - All 54 African countries put together have registered fewer Covid deaths than France. That doesnβt mean people arenβt dying from the virus. (10001 votes) | https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/02/world/africa/africa-coronavirus-deaths-underreporting.html | https://redd.it/kpxnjg | 16:19 |
de-facto | .title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32625-8/fulltext | 16:21 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.thelancet.com: Calling for pan-European commitment for rapid and sustained reduction in SARS-CoV-2 infections - The Lancet | 16:21 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I.E I think the properties are those of droplets, unrelated to any "virus itself already got properties" | 16:21 |
de-facto | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.10.20247023v1 | 16:23 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Low case numbers enable long-term stable pandemic control without lockdowns | medRxiv | 16:23 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: EU defends its slow vaccine roll-out: The European Commission on Monday said its COVID-19 vaccine strategy will get the EU past "bumps on the road" that have slowed a roll-out of jabs across the bloc. β https://is.gd/rYWkwP | 16:27 |
de-facto | "Viola Priesemann" https://twitter.com/violapriesemann https://github.com/Priesemann-Group/covid19_inference_forecast | 16:27 |
de-facto | old paper but still maybe we should read it again, since it describes last years dynamics that we probably will observe again this spring, vaccinations began too late and too few to play a role in the spring transmission dynamics | 16:30 |
de-facto | .title https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6500/eabb9789 | 16:30 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From science.sciencemag.org: Inferring change points in the spread of COVID-19 reveals the effectiveness of interventions | Science | 16:31 |
DocScrutinizer05 | >>vaccinations began too late and too few to play a role in the spring transmission dynamics<< full ack, that's why the absolute numbers don't make much of a difference - definitely the >>each day costs 1000s of lifes<< is a fallacy - and I wish more politicians would emphasize this rather than discussing about idiotic >>special privileges for the vaccinated<< | 16:37 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: The cold supply chain can't reach everywhereβa big problem for equitable COVID-19 vaccination: To mitigate health inequities and promote social justice, coronavirus vaccines need to get to underserved populations and hard-to-reach communities. β https://is.gd/OGX9Hy | 16:39 |
DocScrutinizer05 | https://github.com/Priesemann-Group/covid19_inference_forecast is awesome | 16:44 |
DocScrutinizer05 | %tr <de sprechen @ViolaPriesemann und ich mit dem Intensivmediziner Uwe Janssens darΓΌber, warum wir niedrige Fallzahlen brauchen. Viele #SARSCoV2 Infektionen erlauben VerΓ€nderungen des Virus - genau das gilt es, zu vermeiden. Proaktiv handeln, nicht reaktiv. | 16:47 |
Brainstorm | DocScrutinizer05, German to English: @ViolaPriesemann and I talk to the intensive care doctor Uwe Janssens about why we need low case numbers. Many # SARSCoV2 infections allow changes in the virus - this is exactly what needs to be avoided. Act proactively, not reactively. (MyMemory, Google) [... want %more?] | 16:47 |
DocScrutinizer05 | https://twitter.com/BrinkmannLab/status/1346012496163954689 | 16:51 |
de-facto | .title https://nitter.net/firefoxx66/status/1346004938900516865 | 16:52 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From nitter.net: Dr Emma Hodcroft (@firefoxx66): "The impacts of 'longer period' between vaccines on viral evolution is unknown. So is the impact of rolling out a vaccine to part of the population while the virus [...] | 16:52 |
de-facto | "The impacts of 'longer period' between vaccines on viral evolution is unknown. So is the impact of rolling out a vaccine to part of the population while the virus circulates widely." | 16:52 |
de-facto | "But one thing can help both: get case numbers as low as possible, & keep them there " | 16:52 |
Brainstorm | New from StatNews: First Opinion: Opinion: Instead of debating βfirst-shotβ vs. βset-asideβ vaccine approaches, hospitalsβ study should compare them β https://is.gd/IhahF8 | 16:52 |
de-facto | nice link DocScrutinizer05 its at "COVID-19 Webinar mit Viola Priesemann und Melanie Brinkmann" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6F3bp6QF7SQ in German language | 16:54 |
de-facto | it got subtitles for autotranslate though | 16:55 |
DocScrutinizer05 | do they work? | 16:55 |
de-facto | yup | 16:56 |
DocScrutinizer05 | had mixed results with spreech recog + autotranslate | 16:56 |
DocScrutinizer05 | a few really funny ones | 16:56 |
de-facto | https://containcovid-pan.eu/ | 17:01 |
de-facto | .title | 17:01 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From containcovid-pan.eu: Contain COVID-19 | 17:01 |
Jigsy | >UK's Covid threat level to be increased to five, the highest level, sources tell the BBC | 17:04 |
Jigsy | Until they unveil level six in a month or two. | 17:04 |
de-facto | "Across Europe, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is causing excess deaths, placing a burden on societies and health systems, and harming the economy. Yet, European governments still have to develop a common vision to guide the management of the pandemic." | 17:05 |
de-facto | "Overwhelming evidence shows that not only public health, but also society and the economy benefit greatly from low COVID-19 case numbers. Vaccines will help control the virus, but not until late 2021. " | 17:05 |
de-facto | "If we do not act now, further waves of infection are to be expected, with consequential further damage to health, society, jobs and businesses." | 17:05 |
de-facto | "Given open borders within Europe, a single country alone cannot keep the number of COVID-19 cases low; thus joint action and common goals among countries are essential. We, therefore, call for a strong, coordinated European response and clearly defined medium- and long-term goals." | 17:05 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Results of comprehensive SARS-CoV-2 animal model study published: Scientists at Texas Biomedical Research Institute (Texas Biomed) and Southwest National Primate Research Center (SNPRC) published their findings regarding a comprehensive animal model study of SARS-CoV-2 in the peer-reviewed journal Nature Microbiology. These [... want %more?] β https://is.gd/DT0i3K | 17:06 |
de-facto | I really really wish politicians finally would find consensus on listening to such experts like Viola Priesemann | 17:09 |
de-facto | We need to reach R=0.7 | 17:10 |
de-facto | we need to avoid any human contact possible even if it means some sacrifices because otherwise incidence will not come down | 17:12 |
de-facto | there Melanie Brnkmann says exactly the same as i am repeating over and over, we need to vaccinate with the highest rate possible, e.g. when started really increase the part of population with vaccination FAST. | 17:15 |
Brainstorm | Updates for N. Cyprus: +194 cases (now 1606), +1 deaths (now 7) since 13 days ago | 17:16 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Dutch advance first Covid jabs to Wednesday, last in EU: The Netherlands has brought forward its first coronavirus jabs by two days to Wednesday, as pressure grows on the government in the last EU country to launch its vaccination campaign. β https://is.gd/4NnWqn | 17:19 |
DocScrutinizer05 | >><de-facto> We need to reach R=0.7<< long term we need to keep incidences low, at R=1, and act IMMEDIATELY as soon as they start rising | 17:22 |
de-facto | well we are FAR from low incidence | 17:24 |
DocScrutinizer05 | ramp up NPIs as soon as incidences rise 4 days in sequence, repeat. Only loosen those NPIs when numbers reached original level again, for 4 days | 17:24 |
DocScrutinizer05 | yes, we are inmidst a tsunami, and idiots discuss school as usual "for districts with lower incidences". I really wonder where and which those districts are :-O | 17:26 |
de-facto | we need to ramp up NPIs significantly anyhow, NOT only on rising incidence because we need to aim for declining incidence | 17:26 |
de-facto | imho current NPIs are far from sufficient, people think its holiday time and discuss with police about parking places | 17:27 |
de-facto | we need to have MUCH more aggressive forcing the people to stick to MUCH more strict NPI | 17:27 |
de-facto | and we need to synchronize that EU wide | 17:27 |
DocScrutinizer05 | PID regulation. Not this idiotic proportional regulation scheme | 17:28 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I elaborated on it a few months(?) ago alreadey | 17:28 |
de-facto | we need to act proactively not reactively, we need to aim for eradication not for barely preventing that ICUs may get overwhelmed | 17:28 |
DocScrutinizer05 | that's a small aspect of the generally flawed proportional regulation approach | 17:29 |
de-facto | its not a small aspect its the main flaw of the strategy we have here since September or even earlier | 17:30 |
de-facto | we need to aim for eradication with very much more aggressive methods | 17:30 |
DocScrutinizer05 | no, it's a consequence of the main flaw which is >>proportional approach<< | 17:30 |
de-facto | yeah | 17:30 |
DocScrutinizer05 | wiki PID regulation | 17:31 |
de-facto | its not about doing barely enough to contain it, no its about doing as much as possible and beyond to bring incidence down | 17:31 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Psychology & Psychiatry: No, it's not weird to talk to yourself. Mental health experts point to pandemic, unrest as possible reasons β https://is.gd/lDMx8V | 17:32 |
de-facto | countries that implemented much more strict strategies are mildly smiling now, i know. | 17:32 |
DocScrutinizer05 | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PID_controller#Steady-state_error >>The steady-state error is the difference between the desired final output and the actual one.[16] Because a non-zero error is required to drive it, a proportional controller generally operates with a steady-state error<< | 17:33 |
de-facto | the problem with doing "barely enough" to contain it is that it does not aim to get rid of the burden both on healthcare system as well as economy and motivation of the population to participate | 17:33 |
de-facto | hence we need to shorten the time of lockdown by making it as strict as possible without any exceptions. | 17:33 |
de-facto | all the time the incidence did not go down was WASTED money. | 17:34 |
Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +58784 cases (now 2.7 million), +407 deaths (now 75431) since 23 hours ago β Netherlands: +6179 cases (now 829385), +50 deaths (now 11686) since 15 hours ago | 17:34 |
de-facto | i still stay by my statement, i wish for a hard synchronized 24/7 curfew without exceptions strictly controlled by either police and very high fines doubling on each breach or even military | 17:35 |
DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: what you just asked for is the integral term part, I explained the derivative term part | 17:36 |
de-facto | we have small household sizes in EU, so infection chains for an N person household probably will come to an end before N generation times of ~5.2 days | 17:36 |
DocScrutinizer05 | only a complete PID regulation scheme will get down *and keep down* the incidences | 17:37 |
de-facto | we need to have some success to keep people motivated hence see incidence to come down and that only can be achieved by significantly reducing contact rates and mobility | 17:39 |
DocScrutinizer05 | yes | 17:41 |
de-facto | the time of "barely enough" has to end now, we need to bring it down with the biggest hammer imaginable, then stabilize it at low levels purely by NPIs in order to ensure it will stay there when finally vaccinations may approach herd immunity (and that is no sooner than summer or fall) | 17:41 |
DocScrutinizer05 | and definitely by staements like "remote schooling isn't working optimally, so we should go back to presence school<< | 17:42 |
DocScrutinizer05 | definitely NOT | 17:42 |
de-facto | it does not matter if presence schooling would work better, it simply is not possible right now, so there is no point in discussing it imho | 17:42 |
DocScrutinizer05 | what the heck are ministers of education thinking we are dealing with? | 17:43 |
DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: absolutely | 17:43 |
de-facto | i dont want to start ranting about them again, i just say schools MUST stay closed at ANY price. | 17:44 |
DocScrutinizer05 | yes | 17:44 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Vaccination campaign picks up speed around the world: The campaign to vanquish the coronavirus is picking up speed, with Britain beginning to dispense the second vaccine in its arsenal Monday, and India, the world's second-most populous country, authorizing its first shots. β https://is.gd/CsFc4q | 17:44 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Low vitamin D status is associated with coronavirus disease 2019 outcomes: A systematic review and meta-analysis (84 votes) | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197122032600X | https://redd.it/kq0stz | 17:49 |
Jigsy | %cases UK | 17:55 |
Brainstorm | Jigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 2.7 million confirmed cases (4.1% of the population) and 75431 deaths (2.8% of cases) as of 20 minutes ago. 56.7 million tests were performed (4.8% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 17:55 |
Arsanerit | de-facto: how do you imagine a curfew without exceptions? | 17:59 |
Arsanerit | how many people get infected in workplaces (other than care) that can't work remotely? | 18:00 |
de-facto | well if not absolutely essential such workplaces need to be shutdown | 18:01 |
de-facto | Vaccination doses per 100 people: Israel: 14.14; Bahrain: 3.57; Scotland: 1.69; Northern Ireland: 1.64; Iceland: 1.43; England: 1.40; United Kingdom: 1.39; United States: 1.28; Wales: 1.12; Denmark: 0.81; Russia: 0.55; Germany: 0.32; Canada: 0.31; China: 0.31; Slovenia: 0.29; Portugal: 0.26; Italy: 0.20; Estonia: 0.19; Croatia: 0.19; Luxembourg: 0.19; Spain: 0.19; Oman: 0.17; World: 0.16; Poland: 0.13; Hungary: 0.12; Lithuania: 0.08; | 18:01 |
de-facto | Romania: 0.07; Argentina: 0.07; Bulgaria: 0.07; Austria: 0.07; Finland: 0.07; Kuwait: 0.06; Costa Rica: 0.05; Chile: 0.05; Ireland: 0.04; Norway: 0.04; Latvia: 0.03; Greece: 0.03; Mexico: 0.02; France: 0.00 | 18:01 |
de-facto | source: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations | 18:02 |
Arsanerit | UK and US started earlier so that's unfair comparison to Denmark or Germany | 18:02 |
Arsanerit | differences are smaller in vaccinations per capita per week | 18:03 |
Arsanerit | Germany hasn't snatched vaccines by overpaying like Israel has, but isn't doing terrible compared to other EU countries. | 18:05 |
Arsanerit | Apparently Sweden is vaccinating but not yet reporting how much. | 18:05 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +10798 cases (now 2.2 million), +348 deaths (now 75680) since 23 hours ago β Canada: +14859 cases (now 606278), +183 deaths (now 15909) since 23 hours ago | 18:05 |
tralalisa[m] | Like France π«π·π€π | 18:06 |
tralalisa[m] | I guess Manu didn't payed | 18:06 |
tralalisa[m] | <Arsanerit "Germany hasn't snatched vaccines"> Like France π«π·π€π | 18:06 |
LjL | afaik though, Germany has bought 100 million Pfizer of its own, separate from the EU program. which could be fine, maybe, except the EU went mad at Hungary for procuring Sputnik V for themselves | 18:07 |
Arsanerit | I don't know what France is doing. | 18:07 |
LjL | i don't particularly like Hungary's government, but sounds like unequal treatment | 18:07 |
Arsanerit | I suspect Israel got that many because they paid more, and overbidding others isn't a very sustainable approach if everybody tries it. | 18:08 |
LjL | i guess i agree with that | 18:09 |
de-facto | i thought it was 30M doses and they did so after the EU contracts were made, so did not compromise the combined effort to negotiate a deal for all countries. the EU contracts will be served first because they also have been agreed upon first | 18:09 |
LjL | but Israel also bought Sputnik V vaccines | 18:09 |
LjL | which the EU seems to be avoiding imo just for political reasons | 18:09 |
LjL | i mean, the hard data are not out yet, so i wouldn't approve it yet | 18:09 |
Arsanerit | how about the Chinese-developed vaccines? | 18:09 |
LjL | but all signs are that they are simply uninterested | 18:09 |
LjL | i know very little about them, but yeah, same goes for them if they are effective | 18:09 |
LjL | and there are transparent data | 18:10 |
de-facto | EU should also go ahead and buy more doses, regardless of political impact, yet have to approve the vaccination schemes properly and absolutely strictly stick to them with vaccinations done | 18:10 |
de-facto | Probably we will see approval of Moderna mRNA-1273 on this Wednesday 2021-01-06 | 18:11 |
tralalisa[m] | <Arsanerit "I don't know what France is doin"> We don't have any doses here. Only around 100 people had their shots | 18:11 |
de-facto | and EMA also already seems to have the AstraZeneca on the horizon | 18:11 |
de-facto | .title https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/update-rolling-review-astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine | 18:11 |
LjL | de-facto, the EU should have bought more Pfizer when it was offered. that was a completely idiotic, and politically motivated, thing to (not) do | 18:11 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.ema.europa.eu: Update on rolling review of AstraZenecaβs COVID-19 vaccine | European Medicines Agency | 18:11 |
de-facto | yeah agreed, but we have to make the best out of were we are right now | 18:12 |
LjL | de-facto, well, it's definitely on the horizon because we have already signed contracts for them, but that EMA update is kinda pushing on the brakes, if subtly... when you have in mind that it comes just after MHRA and India's approval | 18:13 |
de-facto | yeah and i am very much for giving them the freedom to do their job they need to be kept as free from pressure as possible | 18:15 |
de-facto | yet still i think its the next on horizon | 18:15 |
Arsanerit | can we afford higher infection rates (from a point of view of not overloading healthcare facilities) when more risk groups will have been vaccinated in the coming weeks/months? | 18:16 |
de-facto | well the problem with that is that with tolerating higher infection rates we loose control over the temporal dynamics (as we currently already can observe). so even when hospitalization rates would be lower for younger there are severe cases and those are in need for hospital treatments | 18:19 |
de-facto | so then we would talk about the young "workers" in our economy, fathers generating the income of families | 18:20 |
de-facto | and for such we very much dont want to loose control over infections | 18:20 |
de-facto | also given that their working force probably would be restricted for months by long covid impacts and we would breed new escaping mutants | 18:21 |
Arsanerit | mothers too | 18:21 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid deaths in UK could exceed 100k before end of month, data shows β https://is.gd/vwwTTk | 18:21 |
de-facto | yeah and then if we have escaping mutants we could start right again with vaccinations | 18:21 |
de-facto | so the answer is NO we very much should avoid such scenarios | 18:22 |
Arsanerit | ok! | 18:22 |
de-facto | but its a very important point indeed | 18:22 |
Arsanerit | I wish supermarket deliveries had more slots. | 18:22 |
Agyaff[m] | what is an escaping mutant ? | 18:22 |
de-facto | because once the vulnerable groups will be protected (for that time) by vaccinations and death rates will go down the question will arise if we could open again | 18:22 |
de-facto | Agyaff[m], a randomly occuring mutation in the RNA code of SARS-CoV-2 that has the ability to (partly) escape the neutralization by the immune response raised against a previous variant, hence "escaping" the immune response either by recovery or by vaccination (that currently employs the first Wuhan variant of the S-protein) | 18:24 |
Arsanerit | Lauterbach said we should shutdown until infection rates are down to 25/(100kΒ Β· week) | 18:24 |
de-facto | yeah and not only him is saying that, pretty much all the experts are arguing like this | 18:24 |
Agyaff[m] | <de-facto "Agyaff, a randomly occuring muta"> oh ok thanks, the "escaping" threw me off, it didn't translate well | 18:25 |
de-facto | for example right now BioNTech seems to investigate if the new UK variant may have got some potential to escape the immune response raised by their vaccine (that is based on the Wuhan S-protein sequence from Jan 2020 or such) | 18:27 |
de-facto | i think we will hear soon about that | 18:27 |
de-facto | and also about those 69/70 deletion variants arising all over the world, DK, UK, SA, USA, ... | 18:28 |
Agyaff[m] | yes I know about that, it was really just for my poor english that I didn't get what you were talking about | 18:28 |
Agyaff[m] | but thanks for sharing ! | 18:29 |
de-facto | experts still expect the vaccinations to work, but there are some hints that this 69/70 variant may have some capabilities to (partly) escape immunity | 18:29 |
de-facto | we will need to wait for more results to be published, id guess we read more about this this month | 18:30 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: COVID-19 ARDS is characterized by a dysregulated host response that differs from cytokine storm and may be modified by dexamethasone (80 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.28.20248552v1 | https://redd.it/kqa6d4 | 18:32 |
Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Covid-19: Health secretary vows to reduce bureaucracy faced by vaccination volunteers: Doctors volunteering to give the covid-19 vaccine should not have to undertake unnecessary training, such as on preventing terrorism, the health secretary has said.Retired doctors who have... β https://is.gd/bloIvA | 18:34 |
ChatPiNoRRR | holaaaaaaa | 18:56 |
ChatPiNoRRR | que onda aca | 18:56 |
ChatPiNoRRR | nada | 18:57 |
ChatPiNoRRR | bueno | 18:57 |
ChatPiNoRRR | JELOU | 18:57 |
ChatPiNoRRR | HELLOOOOO | 18:57 |
ChatPiNoRRR | no calo media | 18:57 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: COVID-19 vaccines appear safe and effective, but key questions remain: The recent rollout of two newly authorized COVID-19 vaccines is a bright ray of hope at the pandemic's darkest hour. β https://is.gd/DtdhDb | 18:58 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Cuba: +316 cases (now 12740) since 23 hours ago β Switzerland: +158 deaths (now 7905) since 17 hours ago | 19:01 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: What we do and don't know about new COVID mutations: The emergence in Britain and South Africa of two new variants of SARS-CoV-2, which are potentially far more infectious versions of the virus, has prompted widespread concern. Here is what we knowβand what we don'tβabout the mutations. β https://is.gd/tQKK87 | 19:11 |
LjL | <Brainstorm> New from Brexit @ The Guardian: Netherlands: Netherlands and Germany refuse entry to UK nationals for non-essential travel β https://is.gd/osAjIv | 19:18 |
LjL | so they were NOT refusing entry before? :\ | 19:18 |
ubLIX[m] | Boris announcement at 8pm GMT tonight: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55534999 | 19:18 |
LjL | i wish we did the same, now, without waiting for our cases to spike | 19:19 |
LjL | instead they're still *arguing* within the government over whether they should open schools | 19:20 |
LjL | when the answer is an obvious, resounding "no" | 19:20 |
Brainstorm | New from In The Pipeline: Variants and Vaccines: Well, here I am with the first βIn the Pipelineβ post of 2021, and damn itall, Iβm right back to the stuff I was writing about last time. I still expect this year to be the time when we beat back the coronavirus pandemic, and (as a minor side effect for me) to be the β https://is.gd/CMSbD4 | 19:23 |
decimuss[m] | <LjL "i wish we did the same, now, wit"> Did not need to be a rocket scientist to know there would be a huge spike around this time. They should have locked London down in October when they first detected the new strain to prevent it spreading. Now the cost to business will be even higher | 19:43 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: The Pope condemned people traveling abroad 'for their own pleasure' amid COVID-19 lockdowns (10076 votes) | https://www.insider.com/pope-condemned-traveling-abroad-to-escape-covid-restrictions-2021-1 | https://redd.it/kq908i | 19:44 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Corticosteroid nasal spray for recovery of smell sensation in COVID-19 patients: A randomized controlled trial (81 votes) | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0196070920305780 | https://redd.it/kqb0k0 | 19:44 |
LjL | decimuss[m], well, presumably they didn't know the new strain was problematic back in october... in fact, some researchers still insist that there is "no evidence" that it's more infectious. i find that position a bit stretched. there is basically not the kind of evidence that would be definitive but also nearly impossible to obtain. there is a lot of circumstantial evidence. | 19:46 |
Brainstorm | New from NPR: NCAA Says 2021 March Madness Will Take Place In A Bubble In Indiana: "The 2021 version of March Madness will be one to remember," an executive says, as the NCAA plans to convert the Indiana Convention Center into a massive practice facility. β https://is.gd/slRBhz | 19:49 |
decimuss[m] | The geographic population which London enjoys is prime breeding ground for the virus which makes delaying a decision criminal given how potent this pandemic can become if not checked. Was talking about this with friends and relatives in Spain and Italy in Dec 2109 when it was in and the govt was warned then to be ready. We will never know the real truth | 19:53 |
Brainstorm | New from Ars Technica: Science: Experts debate fiddling with vaccine doses as virus rages out of control β https://is.gd/MU2b6m | 20:01 |
de-facto | why are "experts" talking about leaving the path of evidence based medicine instead of how to scale the production of those vaccines that got an approval? | 20:06 |
ubLIX[m] | because production can't be scaled fast enough? | 20:07 |
de-facto | hence why not try to change that and find new ways for addressing the bottlenecks in production? | 20:08 |
de-facto | that is while keeping the high quality checks up | 20:09 |
de-facto | the companies know exactly how to produce their vaccines, so why not invest every expertise and resource into supporting them in their challenge to scale up production as fast as possible? | 20:10 |
de-facto | getting an additional dose out of a 5 dose vial or maybe even doubling the available doses now by risking some weird experiments with dosing schemes (speculating nothing bad could happen from that, i would oppose to that btw), this would not be a game changer at all | 20:12 |
de-facto | thats 20%-50% increase, solving the production scaling would be many orders of magnitude | 20:13 |
LjL | ubLIX[m], for the record i'm in stark disagreement with the idea of mixing and matching vaccines or otherwise deviating from the trial protocols. even if the situation is dire, that's just the way to cause some serious issues that will make anti-vax people say "we were right" and most people believe them | 20:14 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: No decision on Moderna vaccine on Monday: EU regulator: The EU's drug watchdog said Monday it had not reached a decision on whether to authorise US firm Moderna's coronavirus vaccine, adding that it would resume discussions later this week. β https://is.gd/AtAshZ | 20:14 |
LjL | oh come on | 20:15 |
de-facto | huh? was it not scheduled on 2020-01-06 anyhow? | 20:15 |
de-facto | .title https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/events/extraordinary-meeting-committee-medicinal-products-human-use-chmp-6-january-2021 | 20:16 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.ema.europa.eu: Extraordinary meeting of the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP): 6 January 2021 | European Medicines Agency | 20:16 |
ubLIX[m] | so double production capacity by duplicating infrastructure, by gifting material resources and infrastructure to the manufacturing pharmaceutical companies. how long will that take? the perception probably exists that this path is not fast enough | 20:16 |
ubLIX[m] | LjL: i was responding to the question "why is x being thought of", not advocating for x | 20:16 |
LjL | ubLIX[m], fair enough | 20:17 |
de-facto | yeah imho that would be a much better approach, help them with scaling and the supply chain etc | 20:17 |
LjL | and i was saying that i advocate against x just for the record | 20:17 |
de-facto | until then we need to be patient and imho absolutely strictly stick to the vaccination schemes | 20:18 |
de-facto | id even go so far that i could understand that companies that see countries not sticking to the approved trial schemes should not be shipped anymore by their vaccines | 20:18 |
de-facto | apart from the companies partly held liable for their vaccines, they also could argue that they cant tolerate that the good reputation of their vaccine efficiency is destroyed or that escaping mutants are promoted destroying their business models | 20:19 |
ubLIX[m] | for the record, i think it would be a fine idea to develop as a global commons (in the fullness of time (and technology, and politics)) the capacity to put out 500 million doses a day of an arbitrary vaccine code | 20:20 |
ubLIX[m] | in anticipation of the next pandemic | 20:20 |
de-facto | that is not mentioning that imho it would be unethical to ignore evidence based medicine if already available for the approved vaccines for the tested vaccinaiton schedules in the trials, those are the only ones we got significant stats about safety and efficiency | 20:20 |
LjL | for the record, i think when/if this pandemic is over, everyone will want to forget about pandemics, and do nothing about them ;( | 20:21 |
de-facto | we need to address the causes not the effects of problems with vaccinations imho, hence if we think its a problem to not proceed fast enough we should address the shortages in supply chain rather than the effects in form of shortages of vaccines in the vaccination centers by spreading doses etc | 20:23 |
de-facto | it will be solved anyhow, so probably we just need to stay calm and stick to the scheme we got for vaccinations | 20:23 |
ubLIX[m] | at issue is whether achievable scaling can sweep away difficulties this year | 20:25 |
ubLIX[m] | time, material, and politics might not allow it | 20:26 |
de-facto | where exactly is the bottleneck in production scaling? i read somewhere 2020 there was some shortage in supply chain because some raw material did not had the expected quality and had to be discarded | 20:27 |
ubLIX[m] | money, i should think | 20:28 |
de-facto | but then the question arises if there could be done more to help them with such supply chain issues | 20:28 |
ubLIX[m] | we are not a village, de-facto. we are a planet or warring tribes | 20:28 |
ubLIX[m] | s/or/of/ | 20:29 |
ubLIX[m] | scaling is an engineering problem. defeating that problem is a political problem | 20:30 |
de-facto | yeah thats exactly what i mean, its an engineering problem, industrial production, with the mRNA does not even things like cell cultures to evolve or such, it should be extremely scalable | 20:31 |
de-facto | *mRNA does not even need things like cell cultures | 20:31 |
ubLIX[m] | so now all that is needed is to persuade a global elite that benefits almost immeasurably from inequality to spend the treasure necessary to solve a problem that doesn't affect them | 20:33 |
ubLIX[m] | excuse my cynicism | 20:33 |
de-facto | i cant oppose to that | 20:34 |
ubLIX[m] | i'm not preaching defeatism | 20:36 |
ubLIX[m] | stay alive | 20:36 |
de-facto | anyhow i really do hope they just adhere to the vaccination schemes and invest their enthusiasm about the urgency into solving the scaling problem | 20:37 |
de-facto | thats why i really dont like to read discussions of "experts" (that are not named for good reason) in the news about omitting the second dose in time or take one dose for vaccination of two people etc | 20:38 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Psychological distress during first months of pandemic equal to that during prior year: The coronavirus pandemic is creating a large spike in significant psychological distress among Americans, with the first month of the pandemic causing as much distress in the same number of individuals that experienced it during the whole [... want %more?] β https://is.gd/UHsgGm | 20:40 |
ubLIX[m] | yeah, the trials with their exclusion criteria are already meagre enough without deviating from their evidence even further | 20:40 |
DocScrutinizer05 | >>how long will that take? the perception probably exists that this path is not fast enough<< a) that's quite right. you can't employ 10 women to reduce pregnancy from 9 to 0.9 months. Everything feasible to speed up production ramp-up is already on its way. b) "fast enough" for what exactly? | 20:42 |
de-facto | i mean if they want to try some new vaccination schemes, sure, why not? but then they would have to evaluate their approach just as the current vaccination schemes also have been evaluated for their safety and efficiency in the phase III trials. so why not start another phase III trial with whatever they want to try? then if they have results for that and these are approved by the EMA etc they could go ahead with implementing that | 20:43 |
DocScrutinizer05 | >>escaping mutants are promoted destroying their business models<< full ack | 20:44 |
de-facto | otherwise there is no point in the whole approach of evidence based medicine and trials or approvals at all | 20:44 |
ubLIX[m] | DocScrutinizer05: fast enough to rescue the geopolitical stability of each country so concerned, or even fast enough to avert national versions of bankruptcy | 20:45 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: New clues on why pregnancy may increase risk of organ transplant rejection: A research study at the University of Chicago has found that in pregnancy, while the T cell response to a fetus becomes tolerant to allow for successful pregnancy, the part of the immune system that produces antibodies (known as the humoral response) [... want %more?] β https://is.gd/17q6pq | 20:52 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Ireland: +6110 cases (now 107997), +6 deaths (now 2265) since a day ago β Spain: +30579 cases (now 2.0 million), +154 deaths (now 50991) since 3 days ago β France: +203 deaths (now 65205) since 23 hours ago | 20:53 |
DocScrutinizer05 | ubLIX[m]: I think that hope for the "magic bullet" called vaccine is a red herring followed by those who simply can't accept that we need "classical" NPI to win this battle, vaccines are just for next winter's battle | 20:56 |
ubLIX[m] | agreed | 20:56 |
de-facto | all the experts say we need to fight it with NPIs until late summer or fall where vaccine herd immunity might be approached | 20:58 |
de-facto | the only thing where they make a difference might be in protecting the vulnerable from fatalities | 20:58 |
de-facto | *make a difference earlier | 20:59 |
DocScrutinizer05 | exactly | 20:59 |
de-facto | (that is assuming we wont have any problems with mutants etc) | 20:59 |
aradesh | boris johnson about to give an announcement | 21:00 |
de-facto | and it looks like we will observe the first effects from vaccinations in Israel, they are leading with vaccinations | 21:00 |
aradesh | he's on TV now | 21:00 |
de-facto | link? | 21:00 |
aradesh | i'm watching on tv... | 21:01 |
DocScrutinizer05 | actually it just this moment occurrs to me if it maybe would be even better to delay vaccination a 3 months until we got low incidences again, thanks to lockdowns, thanks to spring time, whatever | 21:01 |
DocScrutinizer05 | and only then start vaccination at full speed | 21:01 |
DocScrutinizer05 | just pondering | 21:01 |
de-facto | well thats what i am saying the whole time, load the "gun" with storing enough vaccine to go ahead and generate herd immunity in one big strike | 21:02 |
de-facto | and directly before that bring incidence to a very very low level with the strictest lockdown imaginable | 21:02 |
DocScrutinizer05 | yep, sounds strangely plausible right now to me | 21:02 |
de-facto | that would maximize the chance of succes | 21:02 |
de-facto | and minimize the chance for escaping mutants or ongoing discussions when to lift NPIs etc | 21:03 |
LjL | %title https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6rqBXgMiVM | 21:04 |
Brainstorm | LjL: From www.youtube.com: Watch live: PM Boris Johnson makes TV address on 'further COVID steps' - YouTube | 21:04 |
de-facto | because if we reach endemic (R=1) with very low incidence and can prevent escaping mutants it would just stay that low or even decline | 21:04 |
de-facto | thanks LjL | 21:05 |
Jigsy | Lockdown round 3. | 21:05 |
aradesh | basically nation-wide tier 4 + schools shut? | 21:06 |
DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: has this already been discussed by scientific community? | 21:06 |
LjL | February for all those things? seems unrealistic | 21:07 |
LjL | i'm sure they have a few people over 70 | 21:07 |
de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, i have not searched for it yet, but recently i could read some comments from reputable people on twitter discussing about it, so i guess the idea is there | 21:10 |
LjL | aradesh, it doesn't seem like he's stopping any non-essential jobs, right? | 21:10 |
ubLIX[m] | "hope to re-open schools after the time of the February mid-term break, as vaccination takes effect" okay doke | 21:10 |
aradesh | LjL: nope. same as last lockdowns it seems tbh | 21:11 |
aradesh | LjL: he just put a lot of emphasis on "only if you really can't work from home" | 21:11 |
aradesh | i think non-essential shops are already closed? | 21:12 |
aradesh | not sure... | 21:12 |
LjL | aradesh, well my aunt got COVID from an office job that could have conceivably been done from home, but her company just didn't feel like it | 21:12 |
LjL | and it's just a recommendation so there are no penalties for that | 21:12 |
LjL | while during our first lockdown, non-essential jobs were just barred | 21:12 |
aradesh | i wonder if i'll ever be back in an office this year | 21:12 |
aradesh | my company built a big new office and hasn't had the chance to use it yet, lol | 21:12 |
Arsanerit | my employer still hasn't mandated home office, it's just a strong recommendation | 21:13 |
DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: thanks! I just wonder if that maybe already _is_ the policy and they are just sneaking it in covertly via this "failed vax strategy" so they really will start after we got down the incidences? | 21:14 |
DocScrutinizer05 | imagine the public bitching ensuing an announcement of delayed vaccination because of strategic considerations | 21:15 |
DocScrutinizer05 | all those fools who already hope for "special privileges for vaccinated" would just get mad if they were told vacciniation gets hold back on purpose | 21:16 |
Arsanerit | don't you think that special privileges for vaccinated are inevitable? Some vaccinations are already a requirement for travel to some tropical countries. | 21:20 |
spybert | That's true, you need yellow fever vaccination to go to some places | 21:22 |
Arsanerit | I can understand that such privileges can be seen as unfair when not everyone has had the opportunity to be vaccinated yet, but after everybody has had the opportunity it becomes a different question. | 21:25 |
ubLIX[m] | https://www.ft.com/content/5df1b07a-b6d0-44ad-8911-2d9be0096a0a (not paywalled, at least in the UK) | 21:26 |
ubLIX[m] | "Stress test looms for financial system in 2021" | 21:26 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: England Enters National Lockdown in wake New COVID Strain β https://is.gd/11p9xF | 21:29 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Second national lockdown announced by Boris over covid-19 cases surging. β https://is.gd/zwhQb9 | 21:42 |
ubLIX[m] | Taleb disagreeing with the herd as usual, this time on vaccination policy: "Most effective is to focus on 1) superspreaders (when they can be identified), 2) integral of exposure over time (hospital workers) & 3) vulnerability (older etc.), but (2) overlap with (1). Current focus is on (2)& (3), less optimal. (1)>>>(2)+(3)" | 21:51 |
ubLIX[m] | he seems to be assuming sterilising immunity, or sterilising enough | 21:51 |
Brainstorm | New from NPR: Costume May Have Contributed To An Outbreak At California Hospital, Infecting 44: Hospital officials in San Jose are investigating whether an inflatable costume contributed to an emergency department outbreak. One hospital employee died after testing positive for the coronavirus. β https://is.gd/Lx7odA | 21:54 |
de-facto | and btw overdispersion (hence how reproduction distributes around the average R) is a function on how "freely" the pathogen spread is allowed to occur, e.g. if NPIs prevent clusters by making gatherings illegal the distribution around average R is not so much weighted towards a minority of superspreaders causing the majority of cases (as it would be the case in a free replication in a naive unaware population) | 21:55 |
de-facto | but of course contact rates are still unevenly distributed among all contributing to average reproduction value R, hence targeting those high contact rate individuals would make most efficient use of vaccine doses in terms of potentially preventing spread | 21:57 |
de-facto | if that assumption is correct it may be very good news because it could mean that endemic already can be reached earlier with a lower part (of high contact rate) population vaccinated compared to the classic assumption that contact rates are the same for everyone hence v = (R0 -1) / (e R0) | 21:58 |
genera | those 50 000 new infections in the UK, how many is that in per 100 K | 21:59 |
de-facto | UK population is ~66.6M, hence divide by 666 | 22:00 |
de-facto | oops :D | 22:00 |
de-facto | multiply by 7 for weekly incidence | 22:01 |
de-facto | e.g. 50k/666 ~ 75 and 7*75 ~ 525 | 22:02 |
genera | about 4 times de | 22:03 |
genera | good enough for me | 22:03 |
genera | and much more panic than here | 22:04 |
genera | well their hospital capacity is lower. they are not as ill | 22:05 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Stressed out in lockdown, America's young adults are overeating: (HealthDay)βWhen the coronavirus pandemic started, many people began baking banana bread and sourdough loaves at home. Stress eating is nothing new, and 2020 was a year filled with angst for a lot of people. β https://is.gd/IIcyMw | 22:06 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +6193 cases (now 829399) since 20 hours ago | 22:13 |
ubLIX[m] | some argument corroborating Taleb's view, but I can't help thinking these arguments are more applicable to circumstances prior to the explosion of an uncontrolled epidemic: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7347468/ | 22:16 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: England imposes six-week lockdown after COVID surge: Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Monday announced a six-week lockdown for England's 56 million people, including the closure of schools, after a surge in coronavirus cases brought warnings that hospitals could soon face collapse. β https://is.gd/lgPt5F | 22:19 |
aradesh | UK must be getting up to double digit percentage of people having been infected now | 22:32 |
de-facto | whats the estimated factor for seroconversions per positive tested? | 22:34 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Britain locks down again as EU trips up on vaccines: New lockdowns were announced for England and Scotland Monday even as Britain began rolling out the Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine, a possible game-changer in fighting the disease worldwide, while EU nations were mired in finger-pointing over their own slow progress. β https://is.gd/3cqL9s | 22:43 |
genera | so how many brits will be fleeing this time .. | 23:00 |
DocScrutinizer05 | ((Taleb, assumptions)) even if it might be correct, it still fails in real life for simply not being feasible. How would you detect superspreaders? | 23:18 |
DocScrutinizer05 | superspreaders are those that _don't_ obey NPI, so they also won't rise their hand when it comes to who's getting the shot | 23:19 |
ubLIX[m] | superspreaders are also just people belonging to certain classes of activity, possibly even against their will. anyone highly connected in a physical embodiment of a social graph. certain categories of worker. people travelling extensively for business purposes | 23:21 |
ubLIX[m] | etc | 23:21 |
ubLIX[m] | much is known about various such categories. i mean, not by me, but you get the idea | 23:21 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I can't imagine a working implementation | 23:23 |
ubLIX[m] | not even just a social graph, but highly connected in any pertinent graph. a care worker who see 20 different patients a day, in multiple unrelated buildings spread out geographically, for example | 23:24 |
DocScrutinizer05 | an d who's creating the database? | 23:25 |
DocScrutinizer05 | defining is one thing, spotting, contacting and verifying another | 23:25 |
de-facto | STIKO for example | 23:26 |
de-facto | there are not only vaccinations due to indication of being vulnerable, but also from professions | 23:27 |
ubLIX[m] | i can hardly speak both concisely and comprehensively on this theme, but there are surely others who can. anyone coming into contact with a nursing facility could be a superspreader in this conception, for example, and mandatory vaccination of them might consume fewer doses than vaccinating the occupants of nursing facilities | 23:28 |
ubLIX[m] | it occurs to me the people serving nursing facilities are more likely than the actual occupants to fall within the validity of existing vaccine trials | 23:29 |
de-facto | almost 40% of current vaccinations in Germany are done by indication of profession | 23:30 |
de-facto | Vaccination indication by profession and state (percent): DE: 39.9; BW: 31.52; BY: 43.9; BE: 21.62; BB: 87.32; HB: 31.08; HH: 38.02; HE: 45.2; MV: 56.88; NI: 35.15; NW: 39.65; RP: 50.87; SA: 9.53; SN: 70.34; ST: 35.61; SH: 35.55; TH: 31.53 | 23:32 |
DocScrutinizer05 | simple existing example: I asked my pharmacy for quicktests. Answer: only for teachers. Q: how would you prove I'm a teacher? A: no idea really | 23:37 |
DocScrutinizer05 | now take this^20 | 23:37 |
ubLIX[m] | well i don't think street corner pharmacies would be central to the design phase of what would essentially be an information analysis project | 23:40 |
ubLIX[m] | but we're wandering far into hypotheticals here | 23:41 |
de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, why did you not teach them? then you would have gotten a quicktest :P | 23:41 |
de-facto | but yeah they have been promised for months and are still inaccessible for the general public, hence play not really a role | 23:42 |
de-facto | or in a false sense, like elderly homes dont use them daily but weekly or such | 23:43 |
de-facto | but yeah maybe in half a year or such they might be ready for use... oh wait. | 23:44 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: In a Topsy-Turvy Pandemic World, China Offers Its Version of Freedom β https://is.gd/MWpizO | 23:46 |
DocScrutinizer05 | ubLIX[m]: me citing a real life example is "wandering far into hypotheticals"? I guess really nobody would be able to set up a database with all the relevant data how many contacts a particualr person has, not even for hospital staff. For sure not for supermarket stuff where you'd need a certificate from employer about whether you're working at cashier or in store, how long and whatnot. And what about little shops, who's even telling | 23:47 |
DocScrutinizer05 | appart a little shop from a larger shop, or a shop with few customers (contacts) from one with many? | 23:47 |
ubLIX[m] | uhm, no the question of making a vaccine distribution algorithm variable both in doses available and changing condition of pandemic, optimised and devoid of political colouring is a hypothetical, since such a thing won't in practise be attempted | 23:50 |
ubLIX[m] | well, attempt is made according to the capacities of the decision makers | 23:52 |
ubLIX[m] | but i think never without political colouring | 23:52 |
LjL | i think it would only be objective to state that people with IRC nickname starting and ending with L should be prioritized, especially if j is in the middle | 23:54 |
ubLIX[m] | is it not droll to consider that the data for atomistic superspreader identification substantially already exists in a distributed way, among a few large conglomerates, and in a unified way among a few three letter agencies | 23:58 |
Brainstorm | New from NPR: At First Wary Of Vaccine, Cherokee Speaker Says It Safeguards Language, Culture: Meda Nix, 72, is one of the Cherokee speakers who's received a dose of coronavirus vaccine. She says vaccinating Cherokee speakers early helps to preserve "Our culture. Our beliefs. Our ways." β https://is.gd/vDbAjd | 23:58 |
de-facto | LjL, you forgot about the palindrome part | 23:58 |
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