libera/##covid-19/ Saturday, 2021-01-09

Brainstorm	New from Category: SARS-CoV-2 variants on Wikipedia: Biscuit-in-Chief: italics, per ref: italics, per ref ← Previous revision Revision as of 22:59, 8 January 2021 Line 1: Line 1: ==''Variant'' vs. ''strain''== ==''Variant'' vs. ''strain''== − {{tqb\|There is no universally accepted definition for the terms "strain", "variant", and "isolate" in the [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/2D91Vs	00:05
Brainstorm	Updates for Colombia: +18221 cases (now 1.8 million), +364 deaths (now 45431) since a day ago — Mozambique: +521 cases (now 20482), +5 deaths (now 181) since a day ago	00:07
Brainstorm	New from StatNews: Health: Most patients hospitalized for Covid-19 still have symptoms six months later, China study finds → https://is.gd/gQM1wz	00:42
de-facto	hmm for completing the picture to above test of BioNTech BNT162b2 against N501Y mutation there also were tested 19 other mutations at this paper here https://investors.biontech.de/news-releases/news-release-details/pfizer-and-biontech-provide-data-german-phase-12-study-further https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.09.20245175v1	01:08
de-facto	Hence BioNTech BNT162b2 should be effective against SARS-CoV-2 mutations: Q321L V341I A348T N354D S359N V367F K378R R408I Q409E A435S N439K K458R I472V G476S S477N V483A Y508H H519P D614G and N501Y	01:09
de-facto	in wonder about ΔH69/ΔV70 and E484K	01:11
de-facto	I wonder about ΔH69/ΔV70 and E484K	01:11
de-facto	since those were mentioned in context with antibody evasion	01:11
Brainstorm	New from The Atlantic: Listen: How Badly Is Vaccination Going?: Operation Warp Speed pledged to vaccinate 20 million Americans by the end of 2020. We fell far, far short of that. How worried should we be? → https://is.gd/MVDjOw	01:17
orgg	de-facto: thank you for that info - especially as I already have one dose in me and get my second on Monday :P	01:25
Brainstorm	Updates for Netherlands: +9307 cases (now 860887), +89 deaths (now 12177) since 23 hours ago — Switzerland: +52 deaths (now 8230) since 9 hours ago	01:27
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: WHO tells rich countries: stop cutting the vaccines queue → https://is.gd/TnpCV8	01:30
Brainstorm	Updates for Channel Islands: +13 cases (now 3223), +6 deaths (now 73) since a day ago	01:58
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: Brazil’s Bolsonaro asks India to expedite Covid-19 vaccine shipment as delays loom → https://is.gd/YkIOpu	03:06
dTal	ya think someday we'll treat vaccines like software updates	03:39
dTal	just click "update now" and boom, your immune system has the latest patches	03:39
LjL	dTal, i don't think i'll see that, i think i'll see a progressive (with sometimes hard bump) decline of our civilization	04:03
LjL	but maybe someone will at some point	04:03
dTal	wow, downer man	04:03
Brainstorm	Updates for Bolivia: +2263 cases (now 171154), +24 deaths (now 9328) since a day ago	04:21
LjL	dTal, i was never known for an excess of optimism	04:25
de-facto	dTal, yes i am pretty sure thats exactly how it will be, maybe even combined with sequencing: diagnosis by sequencing, send it to a company that derives and sells a custom "software update" in form of a mRNA sequence that can be printed, amplified and injected	04:26
de-facto	or indication by intended protection, like selling a "protection subscription" for traveling to a region or working in a specific environment hence getting protected by a sequence of injections containing the latest "software patches"	04:29
de-facto	im pretty sure the current mRNA vaccines are just the start of such type of medicine, afaik initially targeted at cancer therapies	04:30
de-facto	.title https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6525/145	04:31
Brainstorm	de-facto: From science.sciencemag.org: A noninflammatory mRNA vaccine for treatment of experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis \| Science	04:31
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: Joe Biden plans coronavirus vaccination blitz after inauguration → https://is.gd/H0gkNV	04:43
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: The World Health Organization is urging rich countries to stop hogging coronavirus vaccines → https://is.gd/3fS8ua	05:31
dxrwzy9y[m]	Which masks are better? KN95, KF94 or FFP2? I'd assume the European standard FFP2 is stricter and thus better than the Chinese or Korean ones, right?	05:34
Brainstorm	Updates for Germany: +23847 cases (now 1.9 million) since 23 hours ago — Belgium: +2048 cases (now 660703), +56 deaths (now 19992) since 23 hours ago	06:06
gigasu_shida	hai IndoAnon mak erot akan bangkrut ya =)	06:12
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Mexico City hospitals 'completely saturated' as COVID-19 surges → https://is.gd/688nHX	06:19
CoronaBot	04/r/coronavirus: 14 passengers banned after no-mask, rowdy flight from D.C. to Seattle, Alaska Airlines says (10082 votes) \| https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/14-passengers-may-be-banned-after-no-mask-rowdy-flight-from-d-c-to-seattle-alaska-airlines-says/ \| https://redd.it/ktfq5s	06:21
de-facto	RKI COVID-19 Germany 2021-01-09 (delayed rep?): Weekly Incidence 153.9/100k, Infections +24694 (1891581 total), Fatalities +1083 (39878 total), COVID@ICU 5484 (3068 total)	06:29
de-facto	weekly incidence >500/100k in two regions, >200/100k in 85 regions	06:32
gigas_cedar	are we out of the woods yet de-facto ?	06:37
CoronaBot	04/r/covid19: Increased risk for COVID-19 in patients with vitamin D deficiency (83 votes) \| https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0899900720303890 \| https://redd.it/ktc2fq	06:39
de-facto	gigas_cedar, not yet actually numbers begin to look worse again, so it seems the drop really was due to Christmas/New Years impact	06:53
IndoAnon	gigas_cedar: why you came up with that joke again?	06:54
de-facto	i think Germany is still the country with most daily new fatalities per capita, but maybe USA is at similar level	06:54
de-facto	Daily new fatalities 7d rolling average: USA ~3070, Germany ~840 with population 3.95 times more in USA those 840 daily fatalities would be equivalent to 3,95×840 = 3318 faily fatalities in USA hence more than their current ~3070	06:57
de-facto	and weekly incidence per 100k for Germany also seems to raise again so hopefully we will see an impact on that from the new stricter lockdown measures starting from tomorrow till end of Jan	07:00
de-facto	every household only allowed to meet with one person from another household, schools remain closed, homeoffice encouraged, in regions with >200/100k weekly incidence traveling more than 15km from location of residence is illegal	07:02
de-facto	so if that will not do it, what comes next? 27/7 hard curfew?	07:02
de-facto	24/7 hard curfew?	07:03
de-facto	i dont understand why people still cant avoid to have human contact	07:04
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: China to provide COVID-19 vaccines free of charge – government official → https://is.gd/m3pQLS	07:06
de-facto	.title https://www.dw.com/en/china-seals-off-two-cities-following-covid-outbreaks/a-56171037 <-- btw China acts proactive again	07:08
Brainstorm	de-facto: From www.dw.com: China seals off two cities following COVID outbreaks \| News \| DW \| 08.01.2021	07:08
de-facto	"Chinese authorities imposed strict measures on two cities in Hebei province, just south of Beijing, on Friday in order to curb a new outbreak of coronavirus."	07:10
de-facto	"Almost 20 million people were barred from leaving the cities of Shijiazhuang and Xingtai..."	07:10
de-facto	"The Hebei province recorded 127 new cases in the past week, as well as 183 asymptomatic infections, most of which were in the two large cities."	07:11
de-facto	"Authorities also said on Friday that they had tested 6.7 million residents of the two sealed cities so far"	07:11
de-facto	so if that still reads like overkill its probably the exact reason why China got +2% economic growth in 2020 while most western countries are more like -5% or -10%	07:13
de-facto	imho we should have much much more aggressive containment strictly controlled (maybe even with military) and sanctioned (under leadership of police), mass testing (if we had the capacity...) and also here in Germany and other EU countries, this has to be enforced even if people dont like to comply	07:16
de-facto	i am pretty sure incidence numbers dont come down because a minority of people just does not comply to the current set of rules, sabotaging the combined effort of the majority adhering to the rules and paying the price for their asocial and ruthless behavior	07:18
de-facto	the reason for restricting movement to less than 15km from location of residence in regions with weekly indicence over 200/100k ?	07:18
de-facto	because people tried to travel into winter holidays with their families when snowing started ... under lockdown !?	07:19
de-facto	seems some people need to get introduced to the rules with getting them hammered into their stubborn stupid minds with hard sanctions and fines, if that still does not work maybe police force with military support can be of some help?	07:22
Brainstorm	New preprint: Zorro versus Covid-19: fighting the pandemic with face masks by Olivier DAMETTE et al, made available as preprint on 2021-01-08 at https://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2021.01.04.20237578 [... want %more?]	07:23
de-facto	i am really frustrated and frankly infuriated when i read such news them going into holidays and ignoring the rules while i did not once travel in 2020, never used public transport, now did not even had any human contact in lockdown at all	07:24
Brainstorm	Updates for New York, United States: +19560 cases (now 1.1 million), +164 deaths (now 39282) since a day ago — Georgia, United States: +13296 cases (now 736926), +84 deaths (now 11314) since a day ago — Pennsylvania, United States: +10216 cases (now 708221), +203 deaths (now 17376) since a day ago [... want %more?]	08:04
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: 76 per cent of hospitalized COVID-19 patients experience symptoms six months later: study → https://is.gd/TO46Nl	08:06
jason500[m]	do we have a number of how many patient were hospitalised around the world	08:07
jason500[m]	I bet those 76% have a new autoimmune diease	08:07
jason500[m]	for life	08:07
gigas_cedar	i am surprised germany is so bad in a per capita sense de-facto	08:08
gigas_cedar	it must be all the christmas markets	08:08
gigas_cedar	they make people want to socialize more	08:08
de-facto	here in my town we did not had any Christmas market this year	08:30
de-facto	thankfully, otherwise we probably would have much higher incidence already	08:31
de-facto	the problem is it does not go down	08:31
de-facto	it reached a high level and just stabilized there	08:32
de-facto	i think the problem is that previous strategy was to just barely do enough to prevent further increase in contrast to having the goal to eradicate the pathogen completely	08:33
de-facto	look at China, they have that goal and they do very well	08:33
de-facto	look at countries that just want to "flatten the curve": they have success in reaching a plateau, just at very high level	08:33
de-facto	seems we did "flatten the curve" in Germany occupied ICU beds may stabilize at ~5500 with ~1000 fatalities per day	08:34
gigas_cedar	germany didn't want to force people to stay home and setup a program to deliver food to every household	08:36
gigas_cedar	that's too extreme for most countries i guess	08:36
gigas_cedar	also i believe china setup check points every 5km or so, and you'd have to turn your car around if you had a fever	08:37
gigas_cedar	not too sure of the implementation details but you get the idea	08:38
de-facto	if our goal was instead to eradicate the pathogen and make the virus extinct we would have to 1) close borders 2) make any traveling completely illegal 3) enforce absolutely strict 24/7 curfew 4) do wide scale mass screening testing to find any asymptomatic cases and repeat that periodically with at least one generation time delay	08:38
de-facto	yeah we probably would need military deployed to enforce such a scenario in Germany, people just dont obey the rules otherwise	08:38
de-facto	and as you said, thats too extreme for most peoples taste, they rather like to be entertained, socialize and have fun even if the price is to spread a potentially deadly pathogen	08:39
DocScrutinizer05	https://i.imgur.com/4cm6WSq.png you can see with your naked eyes what's wrong here	08:40
gigas_cedar	you also may need to force nurses/doctors/hospital staff to live at the hospital for a month at at ime	08:41
gigas_cedar	it doesn't make sense to allow hospital workers to go home to their families	08:42
de-facto	yeah they can start new infection chains, but they also are essential for operating ICU beds (in fact they are the limiting factor)	08:43
gigas_cedar	i don't think hospital staff would be okay with that. you probably would've seen a massive strike	08:43
de-facto	so hospital personal somehow has to be prevented from quitting their job, maybe with paying them additional for isolating themselves in their free time	08:45
de-facto	and infection chains have to be investigated, why are we still so much in the dark with where most of the transmission happens?	08:45
de-facto	probably in private places, people meeting?	08:46
gigas_cedar	personnel*	08:46
DocScrutinizer05	I think hospital staff is very well aware they are at risk to export the virus from work to family etc	08:46
gigas_cedar	yeah they are aware but they are not given any place else to shelter	08:46
gigas_cedar	ideally you'd have special quarters setup for them at or near the hospital	08:47
DocScrutinizer05	ideally you test twice a day	08:47
de-facto	yeah we urgently need orders of magnitude more testing capacity	08:47
DocScrutinizer05	not quick tests but sensitive PCR	08:48
de-facto	still no antigen quicktest in the supermarket	08:48
de-facto	i bet they never will come to any help for the "normal" citizen	08:48
de-facto	yeah we would need to have at least an order of magnitude more PCR testing capacity	08:49
de-facto	and now probably two orders of magnitude more sequencing	08:49
de-facto	and i honestly think we need to look at those countries that had success, e.g. closing a city by military and testing everyone in hard 24/7 curfew	08:50
gigas_cedar	that just doesn't work. the culture is working against you	08:51
de-facto	if no new infections are found for two incubation times open that city again but make traveling completely illegal	08:51
de-facto	then it has to be enforced with military	08:51
gigas_cedar	the military won't even follow orders at some point	08:52
de-facto	yeah but that point wont be reached soon	08:53
de-facto	then maybe one area after the other could be cleaned from the pathogen	08:53
de-facto	but the rules would have to be enforced absolutely strict at any price	08:53
gigas_cedar	which country in eurozone had the strictest 'lockdown'. was it spain?	08:53
de-facto	good question	08:54
gigas_cedar	i thought it was spain based on reading articles	08:54
gigas_cedar	it just 'sounded' to me like some of the stories suggested it was pretty strict in some places	08:54
gigas_cedar	more strict that italy, although italy was pretty strict	08:54
de-facto	in Germany mobility never went to the -40% of the first wave lockdown and starts to raise again since end of Dec https://www.covid-19-mobility.org/current-mobility/ and https://www.covid-19-mobility.org/mobility-monitor/	08:56
de-facto	so people start to move again	08:56
de-facto	imho traveling should be absolutely illegal, completely	08:57
gigas_cedar	i think small airplanes should not be grounded tho	08:57
de-facto	but we dont even have rules for train usage or such	08:57
gigas_cedar	because there are medical situations more severe than covid	08:57
de-facto	if they get full or overfull, well shit happens	08:57
de-facto	with traveling i mean people wanting to visit each others, business trips, holidays such stuff	08:58
de-facto	if they need to transport medical emergencies or vaccines of course thats required	08:58
de-facto	maybe companies should be forced to send their employees into homeoffice	08:59
gigas_cedar	don't you think that would trigger rioting eventually in most 'western' countries?	08:59
de-facto	the list could go on endlessly	09:00
de-facto	bottom line is: obviously we dont do nearly enough to bring incidence down	09:01
de-facto	hence it will stay stable at high incidence and fatalities until we change that	09:01
gigas_cedar	the vaccines can't come soon enough	09:02
Brainstorm	New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread \| January 09, 2021: The WHO pages contain up-to-date and global information. Please refer to our Wiki for additional information. → https://is.gd/sw5vFd	09:06
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: Beijing on alert after COVID-19 spike in neighbouring province; 9 mn vaccinated in China → https://is.gd/ibc9gX	09:30
DocScrutinizer05	incindeces have no tendency to ever reach a steady state, they either go up or down. It needs special braindead regulations like "vurfew at hotspots >200/100k7d" to keep them at a certain level	09:31
DocScrutinizer05	well, eventually they actually reach a steady state, when you achieved herd immunity	09:32
DocScrutinizer05	those regulations make it oscillate locally and that integrates into a high steady state at large scope	09:43
DocScrutinizer05	https://tinyurl.com/yyq8murz for those with a hang to electronics ;-D	10:05
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express (Health): Health: Post-COVID syndrome: How the virus affects these six organs → https://is.gd/4v3WQu	10:06
DocScrutinizer05	%title	10:07
Brainstorm	DocScrutinizer05: From is.gd: Post-COVID syndrome: How the virus affects these six organs \| Lifestyle News,The Indian Express	10:07
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Vaccine scepticism among medics sparks alarm in Europe and US → https://is.gd/63SIMp	10:42
Brainstorm	New from StatNews: First Opinion: Opinion: Even during a pandemic, hospitals must make family visits and communication the standard of care → https://is.gd/VL6CXb	10:54
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: India to continue export of medicines, including vaccines: PM Modi → https://is.gd/pmFmtY	11:18
DocScrutinizer05	sshhhSHHsshhhhhssshhhhh <crickets> <tumbleweed>	11:53
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Rich Canadians Are Flying to Florida in Private Jets to Get Vaccinated → https://is.gd/HFAn1p	12:06
DocScrutinizer05	prepare for new impact :-/ http://reisenweber.net/et_al/covid/covid19_statistics.htm	12:16
DocScrutinizer05	_usually_ last day points downwards like in http://reisenweber.net/et_al/covid/covid19_statistics_files/covid19_statistics_htm_513f40c788de9b21.png	12:17
genera	juge numbers are beautiful!	12:23
genera	interesting, anyway	12:23
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: The Latest: Twitter hides Iranian vaccine conspiracy post → https://is.gd/Ul6MP4	12:54
Brainstorm	Updates for Malta: +245 cases (now 14212), +2 deaths (now 232) since 23 hours ago	13:08
Brainstorm	New from Emma Hodcroft: @firefoxx66: R to @firefoxx66: Politically this can appear an 'easy answer' as a new, more transmissible variant is 'nobody's fault'. But #SARSCoV2 needs us to transmit: our behaviour is one of the largest determinants of how much it can spread. We must own that, & do what we can to lower cases! → https://is.gd/MAsnSQ	13:42
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Large study finds higher burden of acute brain dysfunction for COVID-19 ICU patients: COVID-19 patients admitted to intensive care in the early months of the pandemic were subject to a significantly higher burden of delirium and coma than is typically found in patients with acute respiratory failure. Choice of sedative [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/vi3Jbv	13:54
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Most patients hospitalised with COVID-19 have at least 1 symptom 6 months after falling ill: Wuhan study: More than three quarters of COVID-19 patients have at least one ongoing symptom six months after initially becoming unwell, according to research published in The Lancet. → https://is.gd/HXnTQ3	14:06
Brainstorm	Updates for Germany: +21623 cases (now 1.9 million) since 22 hours ago	14:17
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Latina mothers, often essential workers, report COVID-19 took toll: More than half of Latina mothers surveyed in Yolo and Sacramento counties reported making economic cutbacks in response to the pandemic shutdown last spring—saying they bought less food and missed rent payments. Even for mothers who reported receiving the [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/VcHvQp	14:18
Brainstorm	New from StatNews: Opinion: We lost to SARS-CoV-2 in 2020. We can defeat B-117 in 2021: Because B-117 can grow exponentially even in communities keeping SARS-CoV-2 under control, the situation is extremely urgent. If we want vaccination to win this new race, we have to slow… → https://is.gd/luhsHR	14:30
CoronaBot	04/r/covid19: India starts nation wide vaccination drives from January 16th (80 votes) \| https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetailm.aspx?PRID=1687305 \| https://redd.it/ktq6x1	14:43
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: New COVID-19 variant found in eight US states: official data: A new, more infectious strain of the coronavirus has now spread to at least eight US states, official data showed Friday, as the country logged a record new daily virus caseload. → https://is.gd/f8tCVy	14:43
Arsanerit	DocScrutinizer05: aren't numbers still unreliable until mid-January at least?	14:51
DocScrutinizer05	yes	14:51
DocScrutinizer05	and so the trend is just that, based on unreliable numbers, but the trend itself is probably true, even if it's "higher than bogus numbers" it's still "higher"	14:52
Arsanerit	So this upward peak may be an artefact	14:52
DocScrutinizer05	let me put it this way: the numbers are mostly an artifact right now, but within this artifact there's a pretty certain trend upwards	14:54
DocScrutinizer05	it's highly unlikely the true numbers be lower than what gets reported in statistics	14:55
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: US logs record virus caseload as millions in Asia enter new lockdowns: The United States logged a record new daily virus caseload as Joe Biden slammed the Trump administration's vaccine roll-out as a "travesty" and millions in Asia woke up to new lockdowns. → https://is.gd/SDlbZn	14:56
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: Sinovac, AstraZeneca seek vaccine approval in Brazil: The manufacturers of two COVID-19 vaccines developed by Chinese pharmaceutical firm Sinovac and Oxford-AstraZeneca filed the first applications Friday for regulatory approval in hard-hit Brazil, officials said. → https://is.gd/Fj95da	15:08
Arsanerit	DocScrutinizer05: I don't mean that the true numbers are lower, I mean that the numbers may contain infections that would otherwise have been reported on earlier days, such that there is an upward trend, but not as steep as may be suggested.	15:19
DocScrutinizer05	the last day "trend" doesn't tell much about steepness	15:20
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: France to extend curfew as 'tough, necessary' measure: France is to extend its COVID-19 curfew to a further eight departments, Prime Minister Jean Castex said Saturday, citing a "tough and necessary" response as some opposed the restrictions in several cities. → https://is.gd/iPXRGp	15:20
DocScrutinizer05	Arsanerit: https://i.imgur.com/4cm6WSq.png yellow are "new reports"	15:22
DocScrutinizer05	you see why I call 4 last days as "not relevant / steady yet"	15:23
Arsanerit	Ok.	15:24
DocScrutinizer05	Arsanerit: my stats actually use "meldedatum" not the daily bew cases	15:24
DocScrutinizer05	new*	15:24
Brainstorm	Updates for Switzerland: +70 deaths (now 8248) since 23 hours ago	15:25
DocScrutinizer05	I.E they use the total height of the bars in ^^^, while those " +24,694 " of today are sigma of all yellow	15:26
DocScrutinizer05	yet another way to explain it: http://reisenweber.net/et_al/covid/covid19_statistics.htm the light pink curve is identical to https://i.imgur.com/4cm6WSq.png, the dark blue is 7d-average and red is folded-phase (daily multiplier from history to compensate the weekly periodicity)	15:31
Brainstorm	New from Medical Xpress: US sets new record with nearly 290,000 COVID cases in 24 hours: The United States hit a new record for coronavirus cases Friday, notching nearly 290,000 in a span of 24 hours, according to a real-time tally by Johns Hopkins University. → https://is.gd/BFzIjM	15:32
DocScrutinizer05	both average and folded-phase are based on the pink raw data	15:32
DocScrutinizer05	green and dashed red are R_eff calculations based on those blue and red values	15:34
DocScrutinizer05	it's a tad cluttered right now since all curves share same Y range :-/	15:34
DocScrutinizer05	gonna fix that right away	15:35
DocScrutinizer05	mompls	15:35
DocScrutinizer05	updated	15:41
DocScrutinizer05	asrefresh for slightly uncluttered	15:41
DocScrutinizer05	Arsanerit: ^^^	15:41
Arsanerit	What page should I refresh? The one you linked at 12:17 CET?	15:51
Luminous	good day for covid ?	16:35
Luminous	just trying to kick off some conversation	16:36
darsie	.	16:40
darsie	Too many bots and news for you? Try ##coronavirus	16:41
Brainstorm	New from Reddit (test): CoronavirusUK: Had my second dose of Pfizer last night. They gave me this certificate. → https://is.gd/gyzund	16:45
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: COVID-19: Queen and Duke of Edinburgh receive first doses of their coronavirus vaccinations → https://is.gd/3q39ig	17:10
Jigsy	%cases UK	17:11
Brainstorm	Jigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 3.0 million confirmed cases (4.5% of the population) and 79898 deaths (2.7% of cases) as of 9 hours ago. 58.9 million tests were performed (5.0% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data.	17:11
mjensen[m]	%cases USA	17:18
Brainstorm	mjensen[m]: In United States, there have been 22.1 million confirmed cases (6.7% of the population) and 372959 deaths (1.7% of cases) as of 32 minutes ago. 267.2 million tests were performed (8.3% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.4% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20States for time series data.	17:18
de-facto	DocScrutinizer05, hmm that does not look so good indeed, but still i wonder about the same thing that Arsanerit said: How many of the infections behind the currently reported cases (aka "Meldedatum") actually took place on a date near the reporting i.e. which part originates from infections that took place earlier and only now reach the RKI via reporting?	17:22
DocScrutinizer05	unknown	17:24
de-facto	afaik Lothar Wieler head of RKI said something like we only could see incidence from ~17th of Jan again in a way comparable to before the holidays season at the end of December	17:24
DocScrutinizer05	yes	17:24
de-facto	yeah unfortunately unknown i think so too, a very uncomfortable position to not be able to know the true trends currently taking place	17:24
de-facto	but as you i have a bit of a bad feeling about this	17:25
de-facto	yet no data to back it up	17:25
de-facto	i just would have expected to see much lower weekly or biweekly incidence already	17:25
de-facto	and regardless how reporting delay or testing not taking place in the usual way impacts this, as you said at least every of those infections really happened, in reality much more, hence if lockdown would have the desired effect numbers could not be as high anymore	17:27
DocScrutinizer05	exactly	17:50
de-facto	so assuming lockdown impact is less than optimal to say the least, what does that mean?	17:52
de-facto	that most infections happen in areas were those restrictions dont have much impact? to what part is that due to targeting the wrong scenarios and which part is contributed by people not adhering to the rules in place?	17:53
de-facto	if we further would assume the "easy scenario" i.e. most people sticking to the rules (otherwise we would need military to enforce rules), how could we fix targeting those scenarios with highest contributions to daily incidence of new infections?	17:55
de-facto	id assume first we would need to have some representative stats about the origin of most infections	17:55
de-facto	then we would have to think about where the majority of such infection chains could be broken with the least efforts and impact	17:56
de-facto	imho we really really do need a data driven approach to this, no more "shooting in the dark"	17:57
Brainstorm	New from BBC Health: Covid: UK reports more than 80,000 deaths: Another 1,035 people have died in the UK, taking the total since the start of the pandemic to 80,868. → https://is.gd/PXVfyU	17:58
de-facto	like combining all tracing resources and target them at one city only to find out every last information about infection origins	17:58
Brainstorm	Updates for Chile: +4361 cases (now 637742), +63 deaths (now 17037) since a day ago — United Kingdom: +42913 cases (now 3.0 million), +734 deaths (now 80567) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +6957 cases (now 867844), +117 deaths (now 12294) since 16 hours ago — Canada: +6469 cases (now 648442), +100 deaths (now 16749) since 23 hours ago	18:00
de-facto	Daily new fatalities (yesterday) per capita for countries with a population over 1M in descending order	18:16
de-facto	UK; Lithuania; Czechia; Germany; Slovakia; Slovenia; USA; Hungary; Portugal; South Africa; Italy; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Panama; Eswatini; Croatia; Bulgaria; Poland; Georgia; Austria; Mexico; Colombia; Switzerland; Latvia; France; North Macedonia; Denmark; Netherlands; Romania; Brazil; Israel; Greece; Tunisia; Belgium; Palestine; Spain; Ireland; Moldova; Serbia; Estonia; Costa Rica; Canada; Argentina; Chile; Russia;	18:16
de-facto	Sweden; Peru; Paraguay; Uruguay; Albania; Guatemala; Armenia; Azerbaijan; Turkey; Jordan; Namibia; Ukraine; Zimbabwe; Bolivia; Libya; Lesotho; El Salvador; Morocco; Iran; Zambia; Belarus; Norway; Mauritania; Indonesia; Eritrea; Cyprus; Honduras; S. Korea; Lebanon; Bahrain; Egypt; Japan; Malaysia; Senegal; Kuwait; Syria;	18:16
de-facto	Ecuador; Finland; Qatar; Jamaica; Kyrgyzstan; UAE; Malawi; Niger; Myanmar; Pakistan; Nepal; Iraq; Mali; Afghanistan; India; Mozambique; Rwanda; Venezuela; Sri Lanka; Algeria; Hong Kong; Saudi Arabia; Bangladesh; Dominican Republic; Haiti; Philippines; Ethiopia; Uganda; Chad; Angola; Nigeria; Ivory Coast; Uzbekistan; Kenya; DRC;	18:16
de-facto	I did not had on radar that Lithuania; Czechia; Slovakia and Slovenia; have so many fatalities lately (because their numbers did not look so high with their relatively small population sizes)	18:19
Brainstorm	New from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Change outdated information about vaccines → https://is.gd/LDzfNj	19:11
Brainstorm	Updates for Italy: +19976 cases (now 2.3 million), +483 deaths (now 78394) since a day ago	19:27
Brainstorm	New from https://covid19.specops.network : Add OWID vaccination tracker: For now both under Vaccines and under Trackers → https://is.gd/EGqwax	19:36
de-facto	.title https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map <-- scary how incidence increases in UK from the south and London, when using the timeslider on end of 2020 -> 2021	20:08
Brainstorm	de-facto: From coronavirus.data.gov.uk: Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK	20:08
LjL	yesterday i learned that the Greek government data are only accessible via an API if you register with your full name, email, company, and state a reason for wanting to access them	20:18
LjL	i find that absolutely heinous. COVID data should be free and open in all possible ways.	20:19
de-facto	why would they do that?	20:21
de-facto	then someone acts as proxy LOL	20:22
Brainstorm	Updates for Zambia: +1241 cases (now 26567), +23 deaths (now 464) since a day ago	20:23
LjL	de-facto, sadly the EU recognizes "database right" so it might not be legal to act as a proxy :\	20:23
LjL	https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Database_right#European_Union	20:23
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Twitter hides post about COVID-19 vaccine conspiracy theory on Iran supreme leader's account → https://is.gd/wpXxPM	20:24
de-facto	that should be illegal for public health data imho	20:24
de-facto	but yeah you are correct, unfortunately	20:24
de-facto	Snowstorm in Madrid/Spain, record snow of 50years or such	20:33
de-facto	i wonder how that impacts transmission	20:33
de-facto	airport blocked, lots stranded there	20:34
de-facto	why are there still air traveling tourists allowed at all?	20:34
de-facto	i dont get it	20:34
de-facto	citizens excited about winter and on the streets outdoors	20:35
de-facto	hmm	20:35
Brainstorm	Updates for France: +691 deaths (now 67532) since 22 hours ago	21:19
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Britain's Queen Elizabeth and husband, Prince Philip, receive coronavirus vaccine → https://is.gd/tNd77U	21:23
Brainstorm	New from Emma Hodcroft: @firefoxx66: R to @firefoxx66: Finally, the main CoVariants SARS-CoV-2 Variant Tracking page is updated with new links & a new section for S:E484 - but as always, I welcome Pull Requests & Issues in the repository, with papers or online resources I've missed!12/12https://github.com/hodcroftlab/covariants/blob/master/README.md → https://is.gd/XO9eH6	21:48
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: 70,000 households in UK made homeless during pandemic. Increase comes despite government pledge that ‘no one should lose their home as a result of the coronavirus’ → https://is.gd/sbK53T	21:59
CoronaBot	04/r/coronavirus: Queen and Prince Philip get Covid vaccine (10038 votes) \| https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55602007 \| https://redd.it/ktsgsf	22:04
CoronaBot	04/r/covid19: Repurposing of CNS drugs to treat COVID-19 infection: targeting the sigma-1 receptor (80 votes) \| https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00406-020-01231-x \| https://redd.it/ktvybs	22:22
Brainstorm	New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Join the CoronaVirus (COVID-19) Discord Server! A community moderated server to discuss the ongoing pandemic. We have a Q&A style questions channel with medical professionals available for you to ask your questions to as well! → https://is.gd/Fw50Ue	23:11
Brainstorm	Updates for Comoros: +100 cases (now 1150), +2 deaths (now 18) since 2 days ago — Switzerland: +23 deaths (now 8253) since 21 hours ago	23:17
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Pope Francis to have COVID-19 vaccine, says it is the ethical choice for all → https://is.gd/eEDTQA	23:35

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