| de-facto | RKI Germany 2021-01-17: Weekly Incidence 136.0/100k, Infections +13882 (2033518 total), Fatalities +445 (46419 total), COVID@ICU 4948 (incl. 2831 on ventilator) | 00:04 |
|---|---|---|
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +22569 cases (now 2.9 million), +221 deaths (now 70282) since 22 hours ago — Switzerland: +7 deaths (now 8682) since 22 hours ago | 00:18 |
| strike | .cases US | 00:55 |
| Brainstorm | strike: In United States, there have been 24.1 million confirmed cases (7.3% of the population) and 401437 deaths (1.7% of cases) as of 37 minutes ago. 283.6 million tests were performed (8.5% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.4% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20States for time series data. | 00:55 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Cuba: +650 cases (now 18151), +4 deaths (now 170) since a day ago — Jersey: +146 cases (now 3054), +6 deaths (now 62) since 10 days ago | 01:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Fauci says 100 million vaccinations in 100 days 'absolutely a doable thing' → https://is.gd/vGfITV | 01:18 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | xrogaan: absolutely | 01:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Three in four Australians agree that Scott Morrison should publicly rebuke one of his MPs for spreading misinformation during the pandemic → https://is.gd/0eNm47 | 01:43 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | xrogaan: https://is.gd/XM5v8a | 01:47 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | New from Emma Hodcroft: @firefoxx66 | 01:47 |
| xrogaan | oh, nitter is neat. I'm stealing it. | 01:48 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +11454 cases (now 2.1 million), +733 deaths (now 47440) since 23 hours ago | 02:03 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Insights from a Pan India Sero-Epidemiological survey (Phenome-India Cohort) for SARS-CoV2 (81 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.12.21249713v1 | https://redd.it/kz57wz | 02:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from Virological.org: Latest posts: SARS-CoV-2 reinfection by the new Variant of Concern (VOC) P.1 in Amazonas, Brazil: Felipe Naveca 1,2,3 , Cristiano da Costa 2,4 , Valdinete Nascimento 1,2,3 , Victor Souza 1,2,3 , André Corado 1,2,3 , Fernanda Nascimento 1,2,3 , Ágatha Costa 1,2,3 , Débora Duarte 1,2,3 , George Silva 1,2,3 , Matilde Mejía [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/G02Ykf | 02:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: China reports 109 new COVID-19 cases as infections persist in northeast → https://is.gd/nFYUX2 | 03:08 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +4114 cases (now 916133), +45 deaths (now 13036) since 19 hours ago | 03:18 |
| LjL | <CoronaBot> /r/coronavirus: Many patients who initially experienced milder COVID-19 symptoms are now showing up at the doctor's office months later with debilitating problems (1004 votes) | 03:37 |
| LjL | <CoronaBot> https://abc7.com/covid-long-haulers-symptoms/9632046 | https://redd.it/kzfpky | 03:37 |
| gigasu_shida | omg ljl | 03:49 |
| LjL | omg gigasu_shida | 03:49 |
| gigasu_shida | sorry i can't help being alarmist theese days | 03:49 |
| gigasu_shida | "caused some abscesses in my lungs" | 03:50 |
| LjL | abscesses or otherwise | 03:51 |
| LjL | i have the feeling when we're "over" the emergency phase, whenever that happens, if that happens | 03:51 |
| LjL | there's going to be a whole lot of people who are disabled to some extent | 03:51 |
| gigasu_shida | yeah i'm trying to imagine how many people are going to have to go on permanent disability due to lung inadequacy longer term | 03:54 |
| gigasu_shida | i mean, growing up with asthma i know how limiting it can be | 03:54 |
| dTal | I rather think chronic fatigue will be worse | 03:54 |
| dTal | (as in, the more common long-term side effect) | 03:55 |
| gigasu_shida | if the long term symptoms are gonna be like chronic, severe asthma in a lot of people, it could be very debilitating for the economy | 03:55 |
| gigasu_shida | brain fog is something i've experienced as well after bouts with nasty viruses | 03:56 |
| gigasu_shida | brain fog really dampened by ability as an employee | 03:56 |
| gigasu_shida | chronic fatigue and brain fog to me are the same thing | 03:56 |
| derpadmin | brain fog scare me | 03:56 |
| derpadmin | just took the plane yesterday | 03:56 |
| gigasu_shida | when you're brain ain't working you don't feel like doing much. you feel weak | 03:57 |
| gigasu_shida | "Being female, being overweight, having a history of asthma, being elderly. And if you had multiple symptoms during your acute phase and infection in your first couple weeks, " he said. | 03:57 |
| gigasu_shida | interesting that being female raises the risk of long term factors...according to this person. i thought males would be at higher risk of everything related to covid | 03:58 |
| gigasu_shida | long term side effects* | 03:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Brazil’s health agency approves the use of two Covid-19 vaccines → https://is.gd/AJghOY | 04:10 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for New Zealand: +6 cases (now 2262) since 23 hours ago | 04:14 |
| LjL | "The Sao Paulo government had generated mistrust with a confusing announcement about the results of the CoronaVac vaccine. Doria announced on Jan. 7 that the efficacy of the immunizer was 78% for mild patients and 100% for severe cases. One week later, in a press conference in which the governor was absent, officials from his government said the clinical efficacy of CoronaVac was only about 50%." | 05:03 |
| LjL | aka how to make a shitshow | 05:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid-19: Vaccination rollout begins for over-70s in England: The move comes as 10 new mass vaccination hubs open in England, and the UK's travel corridors close. → https://is.gd/QU3d3k | 05:24 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Beneficial effect of vitamin D in Covid: what are the data? (82 votes) | https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://www.larevuedupraticien.fr/article/effet-benefique-de-la-vitamine-d-dans-la-covid-quelles-sont-les-donnees | https://redd.it/kzi16t | 05:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Popular rabbi warns followers COVID vaccine 'could make you gay' → https://is.gd/oMEXbl | 05:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Medical experts still confident in Pfizer vaccine despite reported deaths - Medical professionals in Norway and Australia have played down safety concerns about Pfizer’s COVID vaccine after "about 30" deaths in Norwegian nursing homes were linked to the Pfizer jab → https://is.gd/avCI4I | 06:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Mexico says it’s OK with getting less Pfizer vaccine for now → https://is.gd/kju0Kt | 06:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from EurekAlert!: Where COVID-19 hit hardest, sudden deaths outside the hospital increased: A new study comparing the incidence of sudden deaths occurring outside the hospital across New York City's highly diverse neighborhoods with the percentage of positive SARS-CoV-19 tests found that increased sudden deaths during the pandemic correlate to the [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/M2BeeF | 06:26 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +1630 cases (now 678839), +39 deaths (now 20435) since a day ago | 06:30 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Many patients who initially experienced milder COVID-19 symptoms are now showing up at the doctor's office months later with debilitating problems (10225 votes) | https://abc7.com/covid-long-haulers-symptoms/9632046 | https://redd.it/kzfpky | 06:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Chinese and Russian vaccines in high demand as world scrambles for doses | Financial Times → https://is.gd/sFiZFR | 06:50 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: SARS-CoV-2 viral load distribution in different patient populations and age groups reveals that viral loads increase with age. (80 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.15.21249691v1 | https://redd.it/kzg74h | 06:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: One year, 400,000 coronavirus deaths: How the US guaranteed its own failure → https://is.gd/8jzjwA | 07:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Art and Culture: Rodin Museum sculpture garden reopens to public → https://is.gd/HJLvz9 | 07:14 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Virginia, United States: +9914 cases (now 439305), +23 deaths (now 5729) since 23 hours ago — France: +28216 cases (now 2.9 million), +175 deaths (now 70317) since 23 hours ago — Kyoto, Japan: +154 cases (now 6877), +2 deaths (now 81) since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +38646 cases (now 3.4 million), +676 deaths (now 89345) since 23 hours ago | 07:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid-19: Vaccination rollout begins for over-70s in England: Over five million more people will be offered a jab, as 10 new mass vaccination hubs open in England. → https://is.gd/QU3d3k | 07:38 |
| zutt | %cases sweden | 08:16 |
| Brainstorm | zutt: In Sweden, there have been 523486 confirmed cases (5.1% of the population) and 10323 deaths (2.0% of cases) as of 2 days ago. 4.9 million tests were performed (10.6% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Sweden for time series data. | 08:16 |
| Elpolaco | !corona usa | 08:19 |
| CoronaBot | USA: Global rank: #1, cases: 24,482,050, fatalities: 407,202, active cases: 9,646,497, total recovered: 14,428,351, in a serious condition: 28,733. Mortality: 1.66%, case fatality rate: 2.74%, cases/1M: 73726.0, deaths/1M: 1226.0. Case rate: 174,560/24h, death rate: 1,846/24h. Tests: 285,693,539, tests/1M: 860,351. | 08:19 |
| de-facto | RKI COVID-19 Germany 2021-01-18: Weekly Incidence 134.4/100k, Infections +7141 (2040659 total), Fatalities +214 (46633 total), COVID@ICU 4988 (incl. 2859 on ventilator) | 08:22 |
| de-facto | that may be looking a little bit better, but most of it probably is due to delayed reporting on the weekend | 08:23 |
| zutt | 407k dead in US? damn that's a lot of people :( | 08:25 |
| samir[m] | !corona egy | 08:27 |
| CoronaBot | Egypt: Global rank: #63, cases: 156,397, fatalities: 8,583, active cases: 24,821, total recovered: 122,993, in a serious condition: 90. Mortality: 5.49%, case fatality rate: 6.52%, cases/1M: 1513.0, deaths/1M: 83.0. Case rate: 890/24h, death rate: 56/24h. Tests: 1,000,000, tests/1M: 9,673. | 08:27 |
| de-facto | yet right now daily new fatalities per capita are pretty much the same in Germany and USA (on weekly rolling average) | 08:29 |
| de-facto | ca 1 fatality per 100000 citizens per day | 08:31 |
| de-facto | that would be daily fatalities ~3320 for USA and ~839 for Germany, real weekly rolling averages are ~3416 for USA and ~858 for Germany | 08:34 |
| de-facto | hence daily 1 in 100k currently is pretty accurate for both | 08:35 |
| de-facto | unfortunately thats way too many, hopefully we might see a sharp decline once vaccinations begin to protect the vulnerable | 08:35 |
| zutt | thats just insane number | 08:35 |
| de-facto | btw i wonder how long it will take until we see a decline in the numbers of fatalities in Israel https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/ | 08:36 |
| zutt | %cases israel | 08:36 |
| Brainstorm | zutt: In Israel, there have been 551689 confirmed cases (6.0% of the population) and 4005 deaths (0.7% of cases) as of an hour ago. 9.5 million tests were performed (5.8% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.8% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 0.9% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Israel for time series data. | 08:36 |
| de-facto | http://blog.eladgil.com/2021/01/israel-has-pulled-ahead-of-much-in.html | 08:36 |
| de-facto | https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations | 08:37 |
| zutt | oh wow | 08:37 |
| de-facto | Israel is far ahead of most countries, hence we might observe protective effects first in their country | 08:37 |
| zutt | yeah, this will be interesting to watch | 08:38 |
| de-facto | id wish more countries would do it as fast as them | 08:47 |
| zutt | not enough vaccines to go around yet, here in Finland they were fighting on whos getting the first batch of the vaccine | 08:48 |
| de-facto | afaik half of the doses from the vaccines that got approved and will get produced 2021 are already sold to only 13% o world population | 08:48 |
| de-facto | so unless a massive scaling up of production is achieved and many more are approved it will take years to reach everyone, thats WAY too slow imho | 08:49 |
| de-facto | vaccines based on Wuhan spike might be outdated by then | 08:49 |
| zutt | yeah, i'm a bit sceptical about these early vaccines on how effective they are anyway | 08:50 |
| zutt | but i'm sure they will figure out how to scale them this year, and improve them | 08:50 |
| de-facto | hopefully, afaik both Pfizer and BioNTech are upgrading their production cap already, yet it wont be nearly enough, we need other manufacturers to do the same and also get approved (ofc only with good results) | 08:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from Science-Based Medicine: The efforts of antivaxxers to portray COVID-19 vaccines as harmful or even deadly continues apace…: As more and more COVID-19 vaccines find their way into more and more arms, there are reports of bad things happening to people after vaccination up to and including even death. As I've been predicting for a long time [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/xWaud2 | 09:04 |
| de-facto | i think we need really high quality vaccine information about functionality, trials, current statistics transparently and digestible also for people that might not have the capability or motivation to educate themselves about all the details and backgrounds | 09:14 |
| de-facto | this will be essential for success at some point, yet right now production scaling is the biggest bottleneck | 09:14 |
| de-facto | hence we should work on both fronts, scale up production aswell as informing the public while targeting the undecided | 09:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | January 18, 2021: The WHO pages contain up-to-date and global information. Please refer to our Wiki for additional information. → https://is.gd/az1SrR | 09:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid-19: Vaccination rollout begins for over-70s in England: Over five million more people will be offered a jab, as 10 new mass vaccination hubs open in England. → https://is.gd/QU3d3k | 09:28 |
| zutt | ah yes, apparently some countries (including Finland) are working on different kinds of vaccines for corona, ones administered through a droplet from nasal cavity, the Finnish researchers believe that if they can make one dose effective, this would be very cheap and easy to mass produce very high quantities | 09:30 |
| zutt | maybe there is still hope for 2021 | 09:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Swiss ski resort St Moritz quarantines hotels, shuts schools to contain COVID variant → https://is.gd/JKiC9B | 09:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Australia unlikely to open border in 2021: health official: Australia's international borders are unlikely to open to travellers this year despite the rollout of coronavirus vaccines, a top health official said Monday. → https://is.gd/mQKoxA | 09:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from WHO Euro: Universal health coverage high on the political agenda during the Regional Director’s visit to Georgia: During a country visit to Georgia on 18–23 December 2020, Dr Hans Henri P. Kluge, WHO Regional Director for Europe, discussed priority areas for health with high-level representatives. The visit was also an opportunity to speak [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/L1wNIy | 10:41 |
| peteryan | Hi | 10:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Vaccine disparities raise alarm as Covid variants multiply → https://is.gd/OO8H8K | 11:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: China locks down another three million after travelling salesman spreads virus: Nearly three million people were put under lockdown in China Monday after a surge in coronavirus cases linked to a travelling salesman in the country's northeast. → https://is.gd/eOukxS | 11:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid-19: Vaccination rollout begins for over-70s in England: More than five million more people will be offered a jab as 10 new mass vaccination hubs open in England. → https://is.gd/QU3d3k | 11:31 |
| Vlad[m] | <Brainstorm "New from BBC Health: Covid-19: V"> Yeah, cool, so have fun with the side effects of this senseless vaccination and good night! | 11:40 |
| Vlad[m] | A desease with a scientifically proven fatality rate of 0.2 %. Yeah, and a mRNA vaccine pushed quickly through | 11:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Covid: Brazil approves and rolls out AstraZeneca and Sinovac vaccines → https://is.gd/sqdgmB | 11:44 |
| ubLIX[m] | vlad666: your sentiment ignores the non-lethal burden of disease. while the side effects rates and profiles of the vaccines are to be watched with interest, covid's burden of death and lingering disease apparently justifies the hastening of vaccine deployment. i accept the naturalness of your fear, but expect you should temper this fear by training yourself to make quantitative comparisons between the burdens of disease | 11:52 |
| ubLIX[m] | and side effects. your sentiment here seems strikingly more senseless than the vast project of vaccine development. | 11:52 |
| Vlad[m] | <ubLIX[m] "vlad666: your sentiment ignores "> Thank you. That's exactly what I am doing, a trade-off between the burden of this desease including its prevalence and fatality rates, side effects of vaccines and effects of lockdowns. Sorry, it does not pay off. And more and more scientist are convinced! So good luck with that theory, other things are happening in behind. | 11:57 |
| de-facto | Vlad[m], it very much depends on the group of people, the rate of fatalities for a given infection is an exponential function of age, so IFR[age] ~ Exp[Log[2] age / 5.75] / 186200 hence one of six 85 year old will die from an infection, thats the same probability than Russian Roulette wtih a 6 slot revolver | 12:03 |
| de-facto | the protection from symptomatic COVID-19 progressions is ~95% with two doses of mRNA vaccines, so thats extremely good and may save many lifes | 12:04 |
| de-facto | protection is very consistent als in the older (hence high risk group) https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577 Table 3 | 12:05 |
| de-facto | the side effects (reactogenicity) definitely are there but also the immunogenicity (creating protection) | 12:06 |
| Vlad[m] | And how ist that different to the years before? Except that we never tracked en mass what Corona viruses do to exactly those age groups? We basically estimated them (in Germany) to ~ 25000 or sometimes even up to 50 000 deaths related to raspiratory illness. So who were those people? And what is the confidence interval of that jittery estimation? I think we just held the camera on general cold illness and exposed how wnd | 12:07 |
| Vlad[m] | whom they undertake. | 12:07 |
| de-facto | it seems if people are very weak and sick some might not be able to take side effects such as fever or such, so for those it might possibly be a good idea to think very carefully about benefit vs risk, but for the vast majority the benefit from immunity is very very much larger than the risk of those (temporary) sideeffects | 12:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid-19: Vaccination rollout begins for over-70s in England: More than five million more people will be offered a jab as 10 new mass vaccination hubs open in England. → https://is.gd/QU3d3k | 12:08 |
| Vlad[m] | <de-facto "the side effects (reactogenicity"> Thank you for that reference. | 12:09 |
| de-facto | Vlad[m], if you take Germany and not know anything about cause of death just look at the excess death numbers (over all causes) there is a clear difference for 2020 in the stats https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Cross-Section/Corona/Society/population_death.html | 12:09 |
| de-facto | then looking at the curve for COVID-19 deaths reveals an almost identical curve, hence it makes sense that this is the cause for the additional fatalities | 12:10 |
| de-facto | that is in addition to all the other causes of death, and we really did put much effort into avoiding more, yet it seems it was not enough to prevent those | 12:11 |
| de-facto | hopefully vaccinations will help with that in the future, at least that is what we can expect from the trial data results | 12:11 |
| Vlad[m] | <de-facto "Vlad, if you take Germany and no"> Oh come on, we know how and why deaths are tagged as covid. Even if the people died because of a heart attac. A PCR test (with 40 replication cycles according to Drosten and Corman) and there you have your covid death case. That's statistics pollution. Such work would never get even a bachelor, because it's buggy! | 12:11 |
| de-facto | well if people come to hospital in the need of help you can be sure they will put effort into diagnosing their problems, and if they find out that the ongoing problem is an infection with SARS-CoV-2 they will try to treat for that | 12:12 |
| ubLIX[m] | to be clear: "That's exactly what I am doing, a trade-off", "Sorry, it does not pay off"; no, you advanced a conclusion, with no supported data and not even a supporting argument; then you demanded evidence, studies for the contrary view. this is arguing in bad faith, and it will very quickly cause you to be removed from this channel | 12:13 |
| de-facto | even with comorbitities and age, those would have lived longer (as they did in the year before, the average fatality rates for for comparison) | 12:13 |
| de-facto | so they fight for their lifes in the hospitals and the medical personal does everything in their power to help them to recover and not loose their life | 12:14 |
| de-facto | but for some unlucky ones it ends up in ICU, and half of them will need a ventilator, half of those on ventilator never will wake up again because despite all (very expensive) effort they loose their fight | 12:15 |
| de-facto | for most (almost all?) people such severe progressions probably can be prevented with vaccination, hence in my opinion it is a real hope | 12:16 |
| Vlad[m] | <ubLIX[m] "to be clear: "That's exactly wha"> Okay wait: https://cormandrostenreview.com/report/ | 12:16 |
| de-facto | sorry thats written by people that did not understand the current state of scientific methods | 12:17 |
| de-facto | RT-PCR tests are a long time established method in detecting the presence of RNA from many other pathogens, why would those machines be there already for a decade before? | 12:19 |
| Vlad[m] | I'll gather some other refs, typing on my phone here, and send it over. I'm really interested if they all did not reach the required depth of understanding about current scientific methods. | 12:20 |
| de-facto | and btw those people going into hospital, they really really want to do anything but exactly that, so the PCR just helps identifying the exact type of pathogen that causes them the symptoms for which they are in urgent need for treatment, otherwise they would be send home (in quarantine) | 12:21 |
| de-facto | so its just one of many diagnostic tests, for example the Chinese did a lot of Xrays even for COVID diagnosis because they were able to find a typical pattern and strongly correlated with positive test results | 12:22 |
| de-facto | the so called "Ground-glass opacity" (GGO) in the xrays of their lungs | 12:23 |
| de-facto | or all those lab markers, d-dimer etc | 12:25 |
| de-facto | i am pretty sure those COVID-19 death certificates are very accurate | 12:25 |
| de-facto | unfortunately, i mean i bet we all would wish for less fatalities | 12:26 |
| de-facto | so that is why we are *very* lucky to have an effective vaccination ready, basically its our only effective weapon agains this | 12:27 |
| de-facto | Fuck now i forgot my coffee on the stove, its burned now :( | 12:29 |
| de-facto | argh | 12:29 |
| ubLIX | apologies Vlad[m], admin necessity. try rejoining in 24 hours. good luck with the evidence gathering | 12:32 |
| de-facto | thankfully those bialetti coffee cans are very well constructed as long as there is some coffee (boiling) in the upper part the rubber wont overheat | 12:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from Scientific American: Vaccines Need Not Completely Stop COVID Transmission to Curb the Pandemic: The vaccine against smallpox virus (pictured) not only prevents illness, but also transmission. But such “sterilizing immunity” is may not be totally necessary to limit COVID’s spread. → https://is.gd/YvuyTM | 12:57 |
| de-facto | i wonder when we will have some data about that ^^ | 12:58 |
| de-facto | probably from Israel or such since the are so much ahead | 12:59 |
| de-facto | but it will be difficult to separate NPIs from vaccines impact on Reff | 12:59 |
| de-facto | i wonder if thats possible at all | 13:00 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for UAE: +3471 cases (now 256732), +6 deaths (now 751) since 23 hours ago | 13:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from Scientific American: Health: How Elvis Got Americans to Accept the Polio Vaccine → https://is.gd/iwQai5 | 13:10 |
| zutt | that vlad guy, hes the pavel42ru from yesterday right? | 13:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid-19: Vaccine rollout extended to over-70s in England: More than five million more people will be offered a jab as 10 new mass vaccination hubs open in England. → https://is.gd/QU3d3k | 13:22 |
| ubLIX[m] | spossible. certainly there's been an uptick in 'fringe' activity lately | 13:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Emirates airline vaccinates staff against COVID-19: Dubai-based airline Emirates on Monday launched a coronavirus vaccination programme for its staff based in the UAE, seeking to bolster the tourism sector. → https://is.gd/lT8nZK | 13:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from Virological.org: Latest posts: SARS-CoV-2 reinfection by the new Variant of Concern (VOC) P.1 in Amazonas, Brazil: Hi Paola, Rather than using the Japanese genomes which are, to my knowledge, unpublished why not use the recently released P.1 genomes from Manaus described in this post: Genomic characterisation of an emergent SARS-CoV-2 lineage [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/EubZcF | 14:00 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>Oh come on, we know how and why deaths are tagged as co<< that's completely ignoring we SEE a REAL excess fatalities in the red curve, and I give you the benefit of doubt that you are just excited and anxious and thus made this mistake to ignore this fact. Otherwise I'd plea for a ban | 14:10 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | oh ubLIX took care of it already | 14:11 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >><de-facto> i wonder when we will have some data about that ^^<< err, we have all the basics about reduction of R_eff needed to stop this sh*t. What we don't have are *exact*numbers about efficiency of vaccines on sterile immunity, but we know even a non-sterile immunity will definitely *reduce* the transmission efficiency too | 14:17 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>certainly there's been an uptick in 'fringe' activity lately<< oh yeah, definitely, and pretty annoying | 14:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: COVID-19 Vaccine: Uttar Pradesh ward boy dies day after taking vaccine shot → https://is.gd/9uUKIB | 14:24 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | unrelated(?) rant: though I always been one of the "more, faster, harder!" crew, the currently discussed and in my part of country already practiced CURFEW at night makes me ponder if them politicians should get their ass kicked. What's the use of a damn curfew from 21:00 to 5:00 in a time where nobody been in the streets anyway even before the lockdown-light started? Heck, the mask-rule says we don't need to wear mask after 20:00 | 14:29 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | prolly because so few peopleon thiose places that it doesn't make sense anymore. Now they consider to forbid leaving home in that time??? >:-( | 14:29 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I hope the otherwise deprecated by me FDP will already today prepare the appeals to high court against any such curfew the MPK may decide to establish tomorrow | 14:33 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, such late curfews hit those that visit friends in the evening | 14:33 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | that's bullshit | 14:33 |
| de-facto | otherwise people dont go out that late (especially when bars et al are closed) | 14:33 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | they must target the measure at the crime, not at the circumstances that mayx or may not foster the crime | 14:34 |
| de-facto | about the vaccines reducing asymptomatic transmission yeah its the expectation and assumption, yet i wonder if we can distinguish between NPIs and vaccines impact on reduction of Reff | 14:34 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | it's like forbidding cars to stop speeding | 14:34 |
| de-facto | aye whats going on with the matrix bridge | 14:35 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | hm? | 14:36 |
| jacklsw | they all got unplugged | 14:36 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | ouch | 14:36 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>i wonder if we can distinguish between NPIs and vaccines impact on reduction of Reff<< intelectually and logically yes, technicaly not | 14:38 |
| de-facto | yeah exactly my point | 14:39 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | re curfew to stop "parties": Then I expect, no I DEMAND that they also *) don't sell alcohol anymore for the next 6 months *) shut down electricity at 21:00 so the party has no sound and no light and no friges for the beer | 14:41 |
| de-facto | its not parties, just contact rates suffice already id assume | 14:42 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | since, it's idiocy to hope a curfew from 21:00 to 5:00 will stop parties. They simply buy enough beer to stay from 20:00 to 6:00 | 14:42 |
| de-facto | well maybe also parties, but just meeting friends after work may already be a risk contact too | 14:42 |
| de-facto | heh i dont want to advocate for those rules, i just try to understand what kind of scenarios might get affected | 14:43 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | don't get me started! before they forbid me to poop they GODDAMN CLOSE DOWM OFFICES AND FABS | 14:44 |
| genera | kindergarten has even more effect on transmission | 14:46 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I'm starting to sypathise with thos Qonan idiots et al - not really yet but I start to wonder how long until this will explode into their face for mere lack of rationale and logic and nobody will obey idiotic rules anymore | 14:47 |
| de-facto | lol | 14:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from WHO Euro: Universal health coverage high on the political agenda during the Regional Director’s visit to Georgia: During a country visit to Georgia on 18–23 December 2020, Dr Hans Henri P. Kluge, WHO Regional Director for Europe, discussed priority areas for health with high-level representatives. The visit was also an opportunity to speak [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/AbTosx | 14:48 |
| de-facto | thats exactly why i said it should be mandatory to base introduction of new measures onto some data that may have an expiry date for validation of the claim | 14:49 |
| de-facto | it even would motivate to put more efforts into research about infection origins | 14:50 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | +++++ | 14:50 |
| de-facto | and if it is all transparent and open people would understand the *scenario* to avoid and hopefully implement the mitigation themselves instead of searching for exceptions to the rules | 14:51 |
| de-facto | imho its absolutely essential to *explain* it to the people in a way that everyone understands the *sense* behind every rule | 14:51 |
| de-facto | it would be crowdsourcing the processing power between the ears of every citizen to prevent transmission | 14:52 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>*explain* it to the people<< they will fail epically on that with their curfew | 14:53 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | so for the first time in my life (and I was this never had arrived) I hope for **FDP Lindner** to ultimately mandate exactly what you just suggested: government explaining publicly the scientific base for their decisions | 14:55 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | s,I was, I wish, | 14:55 |
| de-facto | since most of the scenarios cant be controlled anyhow, the question should be: what can we do to employ the brain of citizens to implement the most efficient prevention of transmission | 14:55 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I'm afraid there are too many dead cells in this virtual mega brain | 14:57 |
| de-facto | anyhow we have to make the best out of it | 14:57 |
| de-facto | its the only way, in privacy there is no hope for policing citizens adhere to rules | 14:58 |
| de-facto | people have to get a clear picture of the probabilities involved with transmission scenarios into their world view (via providing them with proper data for the rules) and understand what kind of scenarios to avoid | 14:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid-19: Vaccine rollout extended to over-70s in England: More than five million more people will be offered a jab as 10 new mass vaccination hubs open in England. → https://is.gd/QU3d3k | 15:00 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>in privacy there is no hope for policing citizens<< a fallacy. Private contacts are very very VERY likely not even 5% of our problem. CLOSE COMMERCE! CLOSE SCHOOLS FOR GOOD | 15:03 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | CLOSE PUBLIC TRANSPORT | 15:04 |
| de-facto | well so if now schools are closed which categories of contact rates contribute how much to incidence? | 15:05 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | d'accord with all of that. But curfew for those that don't own a dog, to stop a small percentage of population from visiting other people in private *unless it's between 5:00 and 21:00* is COMPLETE BRAINFART | 15:06 |
| de-facto | we have that here for quite some time (curfew at 20:00 till morning) and indeed streets are empty after some have been "interviewed" my police | 15:07 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | it's taking care of a perceived crack in plaster on left side of building while the right side just collapses | 15:07 |
| de-facto | i dont care too much, its fine for me and i could notice an effect from it, how much incidence is avoided by it? idk that | 15:07 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: we had empty streete *before* as well | 15:08 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | and as I said, the parties sinply get extended to 20:30 until 5:30 then | 15:08 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | excellent job¡ | 15:09 |
| de-facto | again, its not just parties, its all kind of private contacts and it would be nice to get stats about that, e.g. by sequencing and reconstructing transmission paths in one city as representative model for others | 15:10 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | heck, back in the days when I was young, in Berlin, we *started* the pups&clubs tour at maybe 2:00 in the night. With curfew we had started at 5:00 (we somtimed did anyway when we were lazy) | 15:10 |
| de-facto | but such efforts are hopeless with current resources | 15:10 |
| de-facto | pubs and bars are closed | 15:11 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | c'mon tell me more I didn't hear of yet | 15:11 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | my point stands: it's maximum damage for minimum effect, invented by idiots | 15:12 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I'm just seatrching for a lawyer willing to guide me through the "get a Rechtshilfeschein and open a request for einstweilige verfuegung" to stop this nonsense | 15:14 |
| de-facto | imho its good they at least do something now (yet much too late), now we need to make it much more efficient with targeting the main contributions to transmission scenarios | 15:15 |
| de-facto | we have to think about ways to make this work, not to sabotage it | 15:16 |
| de-facto | trying to be constructive, we really need success otherwise people will be unwilling to participate at some point | 15:16 |
| de-facto | and time is running away | 15:16 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | and if they don't reconsider this shit curfew, I gonna start a walk-your-pet nightwalk movement | 15:17 |
| de-facto | i am pro curfew, imho its a good idea but not sufficient | 15:18 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>people will be unwilling to participate<< I'm close to the edge | 15:18 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | that's the problem that people come with statements like >>imho its a good idea<< with ZILCH scientific backup | 15:19 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | this actually turns into a "corona dictatorship" | 15:20 |
| de-facto | my suspicion is (yet id like to see data for that) we have quite some transmission going on between households, hence i think its good to restrict any connection between households | 15:20 |
| de-facto | and what would most of people want to do outdoors after shops are closed? im pretty sure not going for a walk because its just so cold right now, hence they have a destination outside their home | 15:22 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | except between 5:00 and 21:00, in fabs and offices, in shops, in schools, in subway and busses and trains. YEAH makes SO MCUH SENSE ... **NOT** | 15:22 |
| de-facto | what kind of destination would that be ? | 15:22 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | F U! I LOVE COLD! | 15:23 |
| de-facto | i dont understand your opposition to curfew, its probably one of the measures with least impact on economy etc | 15:23 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | AND YEs I NEED A WALK, WITHOUT DESTINATION | 15:23 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | it's a meassure with maximum impaxt to ME, with zilch effect on what it's meant for | 15:24 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | it's maximum unfair and pointless | 15:24 |
| de-facto | i also like to go for a walk, well i cant in the night because of the curfew, well ok so it got impact on me too, im fine with that though as long as people dont visit other households in the evening then | 15:25 |
| de-facto | and i know it happens a LOT without curfew, just in my social bubble | 15:26 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | no thanks, that's how totalitarism begins | 15:26 |
| de-facto | like almost every 1-2 days hours long contact between households | 15:26 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | and they WILL have lost me when they dare to confirm that bavarian curfew shit and expand it to whole germany | 15:27 |
| de-facto | and of course those happen in the evening because on the day people have to do their things | 15:27 |
| de-facto | i think it can have some impact (on scenarios i just explained), yet id like to see study data on that, how does it impact the rate of inter-household contacts? | 15:29 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | assumtions on assumptions on assumptions and >>sorry we are too lame to enforce what we want and need, so we simply make a whole class of stuff illegal so with a million perfectly legal activities we will also stop one or two illegal ones<< | 15:29 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +4703 cases (now 499931) since 19 hours ago — Germany: +9432 cases (now 2.1 million) since 23 hours ago | 15:30 |
| de-facto | after 21h on the streets, or in cars or whatever, what is the most common destination of those people when shops are closed already? | 15:31 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | and while the damage in form of them scaring off people like me is massive, the benefit is not even evaluated yet and likely minimal, while their damn ass is on fire and nobody cares | 15:31 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: you honestly need to ask??? :-D verty very VERY obviously JOB | 15:32 |
| de-facto | what? | 15:33 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>at is the most common destination of those people when shops are closed already?<< JOB | 15:33 |
| de-facto | ah, well that is still allowed here afaik | 15:34 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | those fabs and offices and malls the idiots refuse to close | 15:34 |
| de-facto | yet reduction in traffic is drastic, street is almost empty | 15:34 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | it been before | 15:34 |
| de-facto | not here | 15:34 |
| de-facto | i live near a main street (unfortunately) and i have notices quite a big effect of that curfew on the traffic frequency | 15:35 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | sorry I don't buy that. It's simply not backed at all that curfew has massive impact on visits or rhat visits themselves have any significant part in traffic | 15:36 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | you don't even consider if the reduction you see is maybe from home office and not from curfew | 15:36 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | sorry when I get extremely annoyed when people impose massive restirctions on me based on their guts feeling | 15:37 |
| de-facto | i just can tell about my observation about drastic reduction in traffic after begin of curfew, i can only speculate about the destination of those now not on the streets anymore due to the curfew being in place | 15:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: What you need to know about COVID-19 variants: New strains of the SARS-CoV-2 virus are emerging around the world, and evidence suggests that these new viruses—including a strain identified in the United Kingdom that seems to spread more quickly than others—have been circulating within the United States. → https://is.gd/ZFec01 | 15:38 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I even get annoyed and angry seeing supporters argue pro such restrictions based on their guts feeling | 15:38 |
| Arsanerit | https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/12/15/science.abd9338 suggests stay at home order reduces by another 0-25% when other measures already in place | 15:39 |
| Arsanerit | Havent' read it in detail yet though. | 15:40 |
| Arsanerit | We probably need more home office, more workplace testing, and workplace restrictions/closures. | 15:41 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | and again, as long as they don't close workplace, as far as I'm concerned they can get lost trying to further reduce private visits at night | 15:41 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>when other measures already in place<< !!!!! | 15:42 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>need more home office, more workplace testing, and workplace restrictions/closures<< absolutely. THEN they may once more start discussing further restictions targeting private contacts, like a friggin nonsensical curfew | 15:43 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | and then I still claim >>it will be *counterproductive* since meetings don't end at 0:30 but at 5:00 then<< | 15:44 |
| Arsanerit | I don't know. | 15:46 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | this >>why do you want to leave home after 21:00? you supposedly want to break a lw<< is exactly same ill rationale like >>why do you want to encrypt? do you have something to hide?<< | 15:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: New report offers blueprint for advancing health equity in nation's COVID-19 response: Actions aimed at addressing racial inequities must be a central part of the nation's response and recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, a new report concludes. The report outlines a set of equity-focused programmatic and policy changes that [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/tgJ3wj | 15:50 |
| de-facto | Arsanerit, nice study thanks for linking | 15:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Should your child get a COVID test?: If you're trying to decide whether to have your child tested for COVID-19, talk with your pediatrician, the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) suggests. → https://is.gd/AyWTHG | 16:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR: Data Scientist Rebekah Jones, Facing Arrest, Turns Herself In To Florida Authorities: Rebekah Jones has said she lost her job after refusing to manipulate data to suggest Florida was ready to ease coronavirus restrictions. → https://is.gd/rcMOb8 | 16:15 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/early/2020/12/15/science.abd9338/F2.large.jpg look at the ~10% *poor* efficiency of stay@home orders, with a CI range from ~25% down to MINUS a few percent! | 16:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Destination of the week: Thailand sold itself as a paradise Covid retreat, but no one came → https://is.gd/mIVMoN | 16:27 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | the >>it will be *counterproductive* since meetings don't end at 0:30 but at 5:00 then<< effect | 16:27 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | so besides being illegal since neither fair nor the mildest option, night curfews without complete shutdown of at-site-work and schools, kindergarden etc is mere idiocy | 16:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from Virological.org: Latest posts: @rfgarry rfgarry: Mutations arising in SARS-CoV-2 spike on sustained human-to-human transmission and human-to-animal passage → https://is.gd/e0IycH | 16:40 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +3468 cases (now 918408), +30 deaths (now 13056) since 23 hours ago | 16:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Tens of thousands skip India's vaccine drive launch: India on Monday stepped up efforts to bolster trust in coronavirus vaccines after it was revealed that nearly a third of those invited to get jabs at the launch of a nationwide drive failed to turn up. → https://is.gd/Bf8uxj | 16:52 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | .title https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/12/15/science.abd9338 add | 17:06 |
| Brainstorm | DocScrutinizer05: From science.sciencemag.org: Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19 | Science | 17:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Nervous about getting vaccinated for COVID-19?: If you are unsure about whether you'll be vaccinated for COVID-19, you are not alone. It's natural to have reservations about something so new. → https://is.gd/2sdcjA | 17:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid-19: Vaccine rollout extended to over-70s in England: More than five million more people will be offered a jab as 10 new mass vaccination hubs open in England. → https://is.gd/QU3d3k | 17:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: UK now has highest Covid death rate in the world → https://is.gd/oQHDQU | 17:42 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +5943 cases (now 711277), +132 deaths (now 18031) since 23 hours ago | 17:52 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Student not covering nose with mask disqualified at university exams in Japan (10637 votes) | https://news.abs-cbn.com/overseas/01/18/21/student-not-covering-nose-with-mask-disqualified-at-university-exams-in-japan | https://redd.it/kzuolc | 18:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from Trevor Bedford: @trvrb: R to @trvrb: Near real-time tracking of the spread of B.1.1.7 is possible due to efforts of @covidgenomicsuk in the UK, https://www.covid19genomics.dk in Denmark and @HealthNYGov, @CedarsSinai, @HealthNYGov, @CedarsSinai, @tcflab, @dho_lab, @health_wyoming, @NMDOH among others in the US. 13/13 → https://is.gd/dtUyKn | 18:07 |
| pigughs | On Friday, the CDC said new more contagious variants of the coronavirus will likely accelerate the spread of the virus and that means the US must double down on efforts to protect people. The U.S. Census Bureau calculates the country's entire population is 330,827,996 people. These figures suggest 7.18% of the American population has now experienced the disease — more than 1 out of every 14 Americans | 18:17 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +37535 cases (now 3.4 million), +599 deaths (now 89860) since 23 hours ago — Italy: +8824 cases (now 2.4 million), +377 deaths (now 82554) since 22 hours ago | 18:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: EU insists virus shots will remain voluntary: The European Union sought Monday to ease concerns that citizens might be obliged to get shots against the coronavirus before they're allowed to travel, as debate swirls over the use of vaccination certificates to help reopen tourism across the 27-nation bloc. → https://is.gd/mZYvK6 | 18:19 |
| Fokusu | hello | 18:24 |
| LjL | Hellobye | 18:27 |
| LjL | pigughs: given the spread in the UK despite the lockdown (I'm less aware of the situation in Brazil and South Africa), yes, double down on efforts, but most of all... Roll out vaccines fast | 18:28 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: No evidence that vitamin D is able to prevent or affect the severity of COVID-19 in individuals with European ancestry: a Mendelian randomisation study of open data (82 votes) | https://nutrition.bmj.com/content/early/2021/01/07/bmjnph-2020-000151 | https://redd.it/kzy3bb | 18:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Germany to hold Covid rule breakers in REFUGEE CAMPS in bid to stop mutant virus → https://is.gd/CCiIz3 | 18:43 |
| Arsanerit | de-facto: I almost certainly got it from this channel. | 19:05 |
| Arsanerit | That brainstorm headline sounds like either Daily Fail or Russia Today. | 19:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Norway says no link between vaccine and post-jab deaths: Norway said Monday no link had been established between Pfizer-BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine and post-vaccination deaths in the country, but recommended doctors consider the overall health of the most frail before giving them the jab. → https://is.gd/fgjuqj | 19:08 |
| LjL | Arsanerit, bzzzzt. The Sun, but, close enough i guess | 19:17 |
| Arsanerit | LjL: I appreciate that they put some words in the headline in capital letters, because then I know I don't need to click on it. | 19:20 |
| LjL | heh | 19:20 |
| ubLIX[m] | i'm going cross-eyed trying to make some sense out of CoronaBot's last vitamin D post | 19:26 |
| LjL | the title alone scares me out of reading it | 19:27 |
| Arsanerit | Can brainstorm be programmed to skip any titles that contain two subsequent allcaps words that are each at least five letters long? | 19:29 |
| ubLIX[m] | like the first comment in the reddit thread, i'm trying to penetrate the unfamiliar (to me) jargon enough to see if their study actually involved measured vit D levels instead of genetic proxies for dispositions to deficiency | 19:29 |
| LjL | Arsanerit, i... think i'll decline that request. if anything i might want to try tweaking the rss feed (reddit rss is quite flexible, but not very easy to understand) so that it doesn't post things with so few upvotes... it has only 19 points in total and only 64% positive | 19:38 |
| ubLIX[m] | Dr Medcram recently put out an hour long survey of literature he finds relevant to the case for vitamin D (as much about respiratory infections in general as about covid) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ha2mLz-Xdpg - wondering if his next video on the theme will remark upon this Mendelian randomisation study | 19:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Coronavirus cases in Israel are finally beginning to decline from record highs after it vaccinated 27% of its population → https://is.gd/ItTEQy | 19:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from Gazzetta Ufficiale italiana: MINISTERO DELLA SALUTE - ORDINANZA 16 gennaio 2021: Ulteriori misure urgenti in materia di contenimento e gestionedell'emergenza epidemiologica da COVID-19. (21A00237) → https://is.gd/4xsP9h | 20:09 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Spain: +84287 cases (now 2.3 million), +455 deaths (now 53769) since 3 days ago — Mozambique: +895 cases (now 27446), +8 deaths (now 249) since 20 hours ago | 20:09 |
| LjL | there is a "UK variant" cluster here in Abruzzo now | 20:16 |
| LjL | we also just banned flights from Brazil (which is the thing Brainstorm says above) | 20:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: World on the brink of 'catastrophic moral failure' due to unfair vaccine rollouts, WHO chief says → https://is.gd/2GnCh1 | 20:22 |
| de-facto | LjL, damn how many? | 20:23 |
| LjL | de-facto, not sure, they may have said something like 100 confirmed but i could be entirely wrong, but anyway they noticed a spike around a particular province, and i understand they're going to test everyone in a specific municipality | 20:24 |
| LjL | i heard it on TV but my brain was half elsewhere | 20:24 |
| de-facto | oh damn they also found some new variant in Garmisch-Partenkirchen | 20:26 |
| de-facto | just these minutes over news sites | 20:27 |
| de-facto | maybe even completely new? | 20:27 |
| de-facto | hmm drosten said its nothing to worry about | 20:30 |
| de-facto | https://twitter.com/c_drosten/status/1351222019413725192 | 20:30 |
| de-facto | https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/panorama/coronavirus-mutation-garmisch-partenkirchen-100.html#xtor=CS5-62 | 20:31 |
| LjL | de-facto, rough transcription of what tv said | 20:31 |
| LjL | Tens of cases in a small town in the province of Chieti, which are of the "UK variant". The town of Guardiagrele will do a mass screening for the variant, with 29 cases that have already been identified. Doctors operating on the territory have seen a sudden spike. The virus accelerated suddenly, as the lab has found, with 360000 processed swabs, then an anomaly in one test with the first UK variant case identified in Abruzzo, on Christmas eve. Immediately | 20:31 |
| LjL | after there were another 3 cases. The town has little more than 8000 residents, social distancing in place due to being in an "orange area". Diagnosing will be useful to isolate the virus but also to understand how it mutates and find ways to counter it. | 20:31 |
| LjL | de-facto, yes there is news of a "German variant", i forgot | 20:31 |
| LjL | i forgot to read about it, i saw the headline | 20:32 |
| de-facto | i guess thats how it is when they start with doing more sequences... | 20:32 |
| de-facto | ...they find more variants | 20:32 |
| LjL | this is what i saw <Brainstorm> New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: New coronavirus variant identified in German hospital → https://is.gd/oFJciw | 20:34 |
| LjL | also finding an article here https://www.politico.eu/article/new-coronavirus-variant-identified-in-german-hospital/ | 20:34 |
| LjL | very short, not much info | 20:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Add Contagion Live vaccine "tracker" (actually descriptions) → https://is.gd/zo50zz | 20:34 |
| LjL | wonder why Brainstorm didn't post what i just posted in here | 20:35 |
| de-facto | all i read so far is that it does not have N501 and does have 69-70del | 20:35 |
| LjL | the thresholds for posting here are a little higher, so sometimes i see things in advance, but usually they eventually make their way here | 20:35 |
| de-facto | does not have N501Y | 20:36 |
| LjL | what are 69-70del relevant for? i've kinda lost tract | 20:36 |
| LjL | escaping? | 20:36 |
| de-facto | i think either some ab evasion and or also make possible some of those enhancer mutations | 20:36 |
| de-facto | yeah https://github.com/hodcroftlab/covariants#sh69- | 20:38 |
| de-facto | yeah idk hmm we have to wait. | 20:45 |
| de-facto | tbh so far those news about the UK variant in Italy worry me more | 20:47 |
| de-facto | so it was tens of cases already hence community spread for quite a while? where they all from one location? | 20:48 |
| de-facto | e.g. can it be contained? | 20:48 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Comoros: +177 cases (now 1769), +4 deaths (now 49) since 23 hours ago — France: +182 deaths (now 70464) since 21 hours ago — Netherlands: +3860 cases (now 919993) since 18 hours ago | 21:36 |
| Rpifan | Hi | 21:37 |
| Thierry[m] | <Rpifan "Hi"> Hi👋 | 21:37 |
| SrPx | I've been in contact with someone who just lost his sense of smell/taste, today. That means that person probably has Covid, right? He will do a test tomorrow. My contact with him was exactly 14 days ago. Given that it is his first symptom, how likely it is that he was contagious when we met? | 21:38 |
| Thierry[m] | <Brainstorm "Updates for Comoros: +177 cases "> It's weird way to count because it's saisonal so we are in the second season | 21:38 |
| SrPx | Is there a known timeline for these things? | 21:38 |
| Thierry[m] | We are suppose to count for a year and restart from zero. If we count the same for influenza I guess there are billions of billions since the first case...🙄 | 21:40 |
| Thierry[m] | How many compare to last year, are we sure it's covid not influenza, what about influenza how covid replace it? Is it faster? What about other respiratory disease? In France every other seasonal disease drop to zero, there is covid only. Not a joke really | 21:44 |
| Rpifan | So what do yall think the Germans will do about the new wave | 21:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Turkey accused of trading Uighurs for Chinese vaccine → https://is.gd/1SgRMd | 21:47 |
| Rpifan | Wonderful | 21:48 |
| LjL | SrPx, there is a rough timeline but it's all based on averages. there are many outliers | 22:02 |
| LjL | SrPx, the *average* time between getting infecting and developing some symptoms has been found to be around 5 days by some studies | 22:02 |
| LjL | but that doesn't mean it can't be 10, or 15 | 22:03 |
| SrPx | LjL: I see ): so there is some worrying chance I've got Covid from him? Any graph I can look at? | 22:03 |
| LjL | hrm | 22:03 |
| LjL | there might be, but i need to have dinner right now | 22:03 |
| LjL | i don't recall seeing graphs with bell curves of this though | 22:03 |
| LjL | but there definitely might be | 22:04 |
| LjL | i mean, to figure out it's 5 days on average they've got to have looked at a bunch of cases including ones that weren't 5 days, so presumably those studies have a bell curve graph somewhere | 22:04 |
| LjL | %links 5 days | 22:04 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, https://sputnikvaccine.com/newsroom/pressreleases/second-interim-analysis-of-clinical-trial-data-showed-a-91-4-efficacy-for-the-sputnik-v-vaccine-on-d/ (Second interim analysis of clinical trial data showed a 91.4% efficacy for the Sputnik V vaccine on day 28 after the first dose; vaccine efficacy is over 95% 42 days after the first dose), as announced by Gamaleya in a press [... want %more?] | 22:04 |
| LjL | nice, apparently i either don't have a link there, or i wasn't smart enough to mention "5 days" in the description | 22:05 |
| SrPx | LjL: hmm I see, thanks | 22:12 |
| SrPx | btw, is the coronavac garbage? (: | 22:12 |
| SrPx | seems like it is the option I have in Brazil | 22:12 |
| LjL | SrPx: in particular I have a study in mind that says 5.2 days average. Maybe if you google "5.2 days" you'll get lucky | 22:13 |
| SrPx | i'll try | 22:13 |
| LjL | I don't know if garbage but extremely inconsistent results between countries | 22:13 |
| LjL | It would definitely not be my first or second option | 22:13 |
| SrPx | what would be your first option if you're worried about possible unknown side effects? | 22:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: The world is on the brink of "catastrophic moral failure" because of the unequal distribution of Covid vaccines, the head of the World Health Organization (WHO) has warned. → https://is.gd/Z4NTIx | 22:48 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Prophylaxis Covid-19 in Healthcare Agents by Intensive Treatment With Ivermectin and Iota-carrageenan (Ivercar-Tuc) (80 votes) | https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04701710?cond=ivermectin&draw=2&rank=25 | https://redd.it/kztr8c | 22:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Portugal tightens lockdown as pandemic surge breaks records: Stricter lockdown rules are being enacted in Portugal, the government announced Monday, as a surging COVID-19 pandemic sets grim records and pushes hospitals to the limit of their capacity. → https://is.gd/dvuNvp | 23:13 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Lesotho: +647 cases (now 7018), +8 deaths (now 101) since 3 days ago — Zimbabwe: +689 cases (now 27892), +60 deaths (now 773) since 22 hours ago | 23:21 |
| LjL | SrPx: my first option would be Pfizer of Moderna (I haven't read enough to have a preference between those two) just because of their sheer effectiveness, even though they may also have more side effects than AZ | 23:31 |
| LjL | Meanwhile sorry if the bot has already posted this, but I'm typing from the phone and can't easily search up, I found this article well written for a general media article | 23:32 |
| LjL | 14,99[22:53] 99,99 9,99*highlight:99,99 <Brainstorm:##ljl> New99,99 from r/WorldNews:99,99 worldnews:99,99 A Troubling New Pattern Among the Coronavirus Variants → https://is.gd/YDi9vw | 23:32 |
| LjL | de-facto ^ says things about so many mutations in one go being uncommon, I think last time you were like there's nothing really unexpected about them | 23:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Ultra-orthodox rabbi claims COVID-19 vaccine will turn people gay → https://is.gd/v7Gm4w | 23:37 |
| de-facto | what do you mean? there is that graph of mutations over time roughly following a linear raise by approx one additional mutation each two weeks and the UK variant beginning a new line with approximately same mutation slope but way above it | 23:43 |
| de-facto | hence it was either completely incognito all the time before or there was one event that selected more than average mutations from the random background hence account for that "jump" in mutation rate, maybe selection fpr replications under non-neutralizing immune pressure or also maybe influence of antiviral drugs | 23:45 |
| LjL | I suppose I mean the "way above it" | 23:46 |
| LjL | Well given the UK appears to test so much, it shouldn't have remained incognito | 23:46 |
| de-facto | i meant FIgure 2 in https://virological.org/t/preliminary-genomic-characterisation-of-an-emergent-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-the-uk-defined-by-a-novel-set-of-spike-mutations/563 | 23:47 |
| de-facto | yeah | 23:48 |
| SrPx | LjL: what kind of side effects you're worried about? | 23:52 |
| SrPx | seems pretty safe no? | 23:52 |
| de-facto | Thierry[m], not to reset the counts of known covid infections kinda makes sense as long as once could expect those who already got it still have enough antibodies in their blood to be somewhat immune for a reinfection | 23:53 |
| de-facto | one of the rare scenarios where cumulative numbers make sense: adding up the totals for immunity | 23:55 |
| de-facto | hence we probably should have an exponentially decaying expiry on such cumulative numbers, just like immunity might expire or wane off | 23:56 |
| de-facto | not sure about the time constants though | 23:56 |
| LjL | SrPx: grade 3 effects are not uncommon, those are classed as "severe" events. There have been anaphylaxis events that were, regrettably, not warned about despite the trials excluding severely allergic people. Then we have some 13+ deaths in Norway (out of 26000 vaccinated) that their official medicine agency attributed to the vaccine, even though they were mostly in "old and very frail" people (but that reminds me of how COVID is often described by those who | 23:59 |
| LjL | want to minimize its impact). And finally the one that's the most a pet peeve of mine I guess, after the trials (both of them) gave a "hint" of Bell's Palsy being a possible side effect but the FDA said it was natural background occurrence, we had 13 palsy cases in people vaccinated in Israel. Granted, Israel vaccinated a whole lot of people, so we should look carefully at whether 13 really is any more than the background occurrence. | 23:59 |
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