libera/##covid-19/ Friday, 2021-01-22

gigasu_shidato which study do you refer ljl ?00:05
LjLgigasu_shida, the one in the line just above mine ;(00:05
gigasu_shidaoh ok00:05
LjLi'm proud to announce that while i am shivering, it's because i'm cold and not because i have any fever.00:06
gigasu_shidalemme get you a blankey00:06
ubLIX[m]if summary (sorta) predictioneering is your thing: https://berthub.eu/articles/posts/covid-scenarios-and-a-short-break/00:10
g2`LjL: do you have covid-1900:10
LjLmost likely not00:10
g2`Good!00:10
LjLthanksies00:10
g2`Is it pneumonia that is the main killer with covid-1900:11
BrainstormNew from Ars Technica: Science: “Nothing for us to rework:” Biden team starts from scratch on COVID → https://is.gd/wNlizz00:11
LjLg2`, that's a good question because it's a basic question that makes me realize that, even percentage-wise, i have no idea00:13
LjLubLIX[m], offtopic: "As an example, almost everyone got wrong what would happen with Brexit on January 1st: there were no large queues of trucks waiting for customs. Nor did such queues materialise later. Turns out the market also thinks and instead of massive holdups at the borders, what we see is almost no trade at the borders. Only a few people (not me) predicted this perhaps even worse outcome."00:13
LjLearlier i realized that due to a fault with my tape deck i have held up actually buying tapes from https://tapeline.info/v2/ for probably too long :(00:14
LjL(especially given what they state on that page)00:14
ubLIX[m]LjL: fear not, the UK is setting out to smooth over tense matters by.. denying full diplomatic status to the EU's ambassadorial mission to the UK00:20
LjLyay00:20
raccoon_dogHurrah! /s00:20
LjL"There are however people that claim these tests do not detect all infectious people, because you might in theory still be infectious even though there is no live virus in you. This is likely an extremely theoretical claim."00:22
LjLwhat. who claims that. that seems a little out there.00:23
LjLis the virus reborn from ashes00:23
raccoon_dog> you might in theory still be infectious even though there is no live virus in you00:23
raccoon_dogWhat?00:23
raccoon_dogHow... How does that even work??00:23
raccoon_dogDoes the virus resurrect?00:23
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Massive fire rages at world's largest COVID-19 vaccine manufacturer → https://is.gd/KLXjWb00:23
LjLyou can't see my raise my shoulders so i should probably relax them00:23
LjLwon't help my stiff neck00:24
raccoon_dogHeh.00:24
LjLhmm i wonder how universal shrugging / raising shoulders is, probably not very00:25
g2`Would seem universal00:26
LjL[citation shrugged]00:29
LjLubLIX[m], funny he specifically mentions calcifediol as a promising treatment... vit D, or, admittedly, something similar to it though not quite it, has been repeatedly mentioned in maaaaany studies and yet doctors/researchers/youtubers are always very "correlation is not causation" about it. and yet personally it's the closest thing i feel like recommending (if nothing else because most people are likely to be deficient at this point anyway)00:31
g2`LjL: 00:32
g2`Deficient from00:32
g2`Oh nm00:32
LjLyes, they are deficient from this point at vitamin D00:33
g2`I'm looking at some combos that include d, zinc, k200:34
ubLIX[m]uhm. the hyperlinked article includes a passage titled "Why the medical field is so conservative". "This is likely an extremely theoretical claim" might perhaps be taken as allusion to an understated frustration at beside the point comparison between PCR (fragments) and rapid (active virus) testing00:34
ubLIX[m]or maybe the author is just tired and phrased the passage poorly00:34
g2`Think I'll want to incorporate nac, elderberry (which some formulas already have), ofc c, and magnesium00:35
LjLoh an asterisk since you actually have COVID and i just said it's the closest i recommend... i have NO idea whether taking anything (including vit D) during your acute phase may make things better or worse. some treatments *are* known to make things worse or better depending on the specific time and case. what i suggest vitamin D for is as a regular supplement for if you have a (likely) deficiency in it, not a treatment when you have COVID00:35
g2`I see00:35
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: India is giving away millions of coronavirus vaccine doses as a tool of diplomacy → https://is.gd/2zZvD600:35
g2`I have some 5000ui that have exp last year00:36
g2`But I will take those for now00:36
LjLubLIX[m], if you changed all the instances of "infectious" into "infected" in that paragraph, it would make marginally more sense00:36
g2`iu*00:36
LjLi believe that's more than the usual RDA fwiw00:37
LjLubLIX[m], gotta say, it may have little-to-nothing to with Brexit, but the pace at which the UK is vaccinating compared to the EU is going to make Brexit look like a good thing to many00:38
LjLto do*00:39
ubLIX[m]possibly00:39
g2`LjL: do you know what made it worse00:39
g2`The video that ubLIX[m] linked earlier mentions a study in India where thousands of patients took like 25,000iu iirc and only one reported toxicity00:42
g2`And the high dosage seemed to help *shrug*00:43
ubLIX[m]g2`: in that video, about vitamin D, he was happy to say that if at the time of getting covid you're already supplementing with vit D, you could just carry on with whatever you're taking. he said if you hadn't been taking it, might be well worth considering starting (though as doctors are generally bound to, he says speak to your doctor first). he also mentioned the general idea that a reasonable safe level to take00:45
ubLIX[m]without medical supervision is 4000IU per day00:45
ubLIX[m]a reasonable *maximum is 4000 IU per day00:46
g2`Jk00:49
g2`I may have everything I need here00:49
g2`An expiration date from last year may only weaken the already high dosage00:50
g2`Take that with my zinc, magnesium and c, all of which have expired, should suffice ;D00:51
ubLIX[m]the SHADE study from India, he says, involved giving 50,000 IU orally daily for 7 days, before returning to 4-5000 IU thereafter, and finding some evidence for improved clearance of virus and decreased inflammatory markers00:52
Raf[m]Have you looked into famotadine / pepcid AC?00:52
Raf[m]Also OTC00:52
g2`No00:52
g2`I could doordash cvs or Walgreens tho if needed00:52
LjLg2`, i have heard of high dosages potentially helping in some acute COVID cases00:53
LjLbut *very* high doses should only be given under medical supervision00:53
Raf[m]There was initial promising results but nothing conclusive00:53
LjLif you just take a large dose because a study or another suggested it, you may as well make it worse than better00:53
ubLIX[m]^00:53
de-factoquite interesting that the video does not mention increased thrombosis risk even with mild infections, id try to prevent that00:55
LjLde-facto, but how? iirc, from early reports i had in italy though, so i'm not up to speed, not *all* blood thinners but only *some* of them appeared effective00:56
LjLor better stated, doctors seemed to confused as they gave people blood thinners and yet they developed clots anyway00:56
LjL(why do i keep skipping the word after "to"?)00:56
g2`From too much vitamin d, de-facto ?00:56
LjLg2`, nah, COVID00:56
g2`Would k2 be good for that00:57
g2`Since it counteracts blood thinners00:58
g2`For thrombosis00:58
LjLuh you wouldn't want to *counteract* blood thinners00:58
g2`Would seem counteracting would not be ideal00:58
LjLblood thinners are what's normally used to *prevent* thrombosis00:58
de-factok2 could increase the risk of clots00:58
de-factopossible (i am not a med doc)00:58
g2`I meant if *not* on blood thinners00:59
g2`But yeah, was thinking that00:59
g2`It would seem to make worse00:59
de-factocovid itself seems to promove several mechanisms that could lead to blood clots, so id try to inform myself about what i could do to prevent that. id guess easiest would be enough drinking and also regular exercising (enough movement) but also some foods are said to have blood thinning effects etc, id always try to stay within normal amounts 00:59
g2`Maybe a baby asprin01:00
LjLthere are also some supplements (technically food, as questionable as that legal status is) that are meant to act as blood thinners, if one were to go that route01:00
LjLaspirin... i have some caveat in the back of my head about aspirin with COVID01:00
LjLhmm, from past links into the channel, i'm not actually finding any caveat i had in mind01:02
ubLIX[m]de-facto: the same doctor has over the course of multiple videos developed the idea that NAC (mentioned only briefly in this video) might help with clotting disorder, since it is a potent anti-oxidant and actively thrombolytic. clinical trials exploring the value of this conjecture wrt covid had not completed by the time his last video on this theme as far as i recall. certainly, he some while back gave its thrombolytic01:02
ubLIX[m]effect as part of the reason why he choose to take it every day01:02
LjLexcept, well, https://www.recoverytrial.net/news/aspirin-to-be-investigated-as-a-possible-treatment-for-covid-19-in-the-recovery-trial mentions "Tocilizumab (an anti-inflammatory treatment given by injection)" as one of the treatment in that trial, as well as aspirin, and a tocilizumab trial has *just* been cancelled because it appeared to be killing people :P01:03
LjLbut that means nothing unless the same people are similarly bad at guessing treatments!01:03
de-factointeresting, so maybe i should read more about N-Acetylcystein 01:04
LjLit's so painful to type01:04
LjLbut yes it's an interesting substance01:04
LjLlike in general01:04
g2`Maybe just "nac"01:04
LjLjust don't take it if you're taking paracetamol (acetaminophen)01:05
LjL'cause it's the antidote to that01:05
LjLdrug interactions are fuuuuun01:06
ubLIX[m]i wonder though if his not mentioning NAC in this connection (clotting) in this recent video suggests he has tempered his prior enthusiasm on this point01:06
de-factobtw (unrelated to covid) there was a study that has shown that baby aspirin (100mg) probably is not enough to achieve the blood thinning effect for most people https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)31133-4/fulltext01:06
BrainstormUpdates for Switzerland: +33 deaths (now 8971) since 9 hours ago01:06
ubLIX[m]it might just be because he has devoted so many hours of video to NAC before now he didn't feel it needed further comment01:07
g2`Ok, thanks LjL wasn't aware01:07
de-factopossibly, i just was expecting him to address the thrombosis topic a bit more in that video01:07
g2`So now I'm thinking nac, vitamin d01:08
g2`Zinc and mag and c01:08
LjLyou know, if taking a bunch of semi-random things from semi-random preprints cured COVID, by now it probably... actually i don't know, you do what you think is best01:08
de-factodo you have a family doc that you could call on your choices?01:09
LjLbut buy a thermometer or fix yours ← seems a priority01:09
g2`Not particularly01:09
de-factoprobably should get proper medical advice from someone knowing your medical history before experimenting with stuff01:09
LjLmhm01:09
g2`My medical history is not extensive01:10
g2`I feel like if I'm taking the vitamins within range, it should be fine01:11
g2`But I'm no doc :01:11
g2`:P01:11
LjLremind me, what's the rationale for taking zinc? i remember some were championing it as a co-treatment with chloroquine (lol) to let it actually enter cells, but i want to believe that's not your use case01:11
g2`I'm not sure tbh01:12
g2`But it was mentioned in the video01:12
g2`Lastly but mentioned :P01:12
LjLg2`, have a tidbit: when researchers looked at people who were taking supplements vs the ones who weren't, they found that the ones taking supplements lived longer. however, they also found that they were wealthier on average (not surprising). when they accounted for social class/wealth, they found that people taking supplement lived *less* long.01:12
LjL(source: google "supplements kill you", that should do it)01:13
LjL(i'm not serious about supplements killing you, but i bet that will find the study)01:13
g2`Social class/wealth lived less long01:14
g2`Trying to understand01:15
g2`I get the healthy ppl who took supplements lived longer 01:15
LjLlook up confounders :P01:15
LjLwealthy*01:15
LjLthe thing is that wealthy people are more likely to take supplements, because supplements are kind of expensive, *and* wealthy people are also more likely to live longer, because they have better access to healthcare. *but* that may create an impression that, in general, taking supplements makes you live longer, when it could even be the opposite (and their statistics suggested it was)01:16
g2`I see01:17
BrainstormUpdates for France: +12366 cases (now 3.0 million) since 21 hours ago01:19
de-factowell how to exclude a cause in the background like for example: wealthy people with some longterm health issue have a higher probability to think about what they could do to increase their health and one thing is they can afford to buy supplements01:21
de-facto(sorry for playing devils advocate)01:21
LjLi don't know, you're the statistician who probably knows how to adjust for confounders, i can only parrot what i remember from the study abstract :P01:22
LjLor as i like to say, i understand things at a qualitative level01:22
g2`Read as healthy01:22
g2`Thanks for the info!01:23
LjLg2`, let us know how the thing evolves01:24
LjLwe've barely had any actual COVID patient here!01:24
g2`Ty01:24
LjLlike, one, briefly01:24
g2`:o01:24
LjLi know, right?01:24
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Tokyo Olympics to be cancelled for coronavirus: report → https://is.gd/PX5rf101:24
LjLit's almost like COVID is a hoax01:24
g2`:P01:25
de-factog2`, get well soon (or stay healthy :)01:25
LjLget a thermometer soon01:25
LjLso you'll know01:25
LjLpulse oximeter is optional, but honestly, it's fun01:25
g2`Thank you all for the kind words01:25
g2`And knowledge01:25
g2`I will keep you posted01:26
LjL¸.·˙·.¸.·˙·.¸.·˙·.¸.·˙·.¸.·˙·. 115bpm01:26
LjL(that's just my sitting average!)01:26
g2`:)01:26
g2`Is that high?01:26
LjLhell yeah01:26
LjLi'm a bundle of nerves01:26
g2`My goosness01:26
g2`Goodness*01:26
LjLit's what a fit person should have when they're running, or so01:27
g2`Maybe bc an actual covid freenode patient is here ;)01:27
LjLbut i am just someone sedentary who takes too many supplements :P01:27
LjLi don't get *that* excited01:27
g2`:P01:29
g2`115 running sounds extremely healthy01:30
g2`fit01:30
LjLwell i said a fit person, not an average person01:31
g2`Definitely wouldn't be me01:31
g2`Would like to be one day :)01:32
g2`In fact, I was running laps at a local track during the early part of lockdown01:32
g2`With a friend01:32
g2`He mentioned doing it and not stopping, meaning when you start, even if just jogging, don't slow down to walk until finished01:33
g2`Started out like 2-3 laps01:33
g2`Built up to like four, then six, eight, all the way to to 14 nonstop01:34
g2`Within just a week or so or less01:35
g2`Did 14 two days in a row and then stoped01:35
g2`It's amazing how your body can become fit01:35
g2`Fitter, rather01:35
g2`It was a slow jog but a workout nonetheless01:36
g2`stopped*01:37
LjLi have a treadmill, i walk on it reasonably fast, but i can only jog for embarrassingly brief periods of time01:40
raccoon_dogWhy? Do you get out of breath?01:41
LjLyes... and well, i get general body signals that i'm depleted of energy, i guess01:41
raccoon_dog... Uh. That's not a good thing. Has this been happening lately? Like, after the pandemic?01:41
raccoon_dogI don't mean to alarm you, but it's just that generalized lethargy and reduced lung capacity are things that happen.01:42
LjLno, it has happened for a long time. as i said i'm pretty sedentary.01:42
raccoon_dogRight, OK.01:42
raccoon_dogI was concerned.01:42
LjLi kind of link some recurrent fatigue episodes i have to some kind of seemingly short-lived disease i had in 2016 (high fever for a day, and that was it, except then i kept feeling like crap every couple of weeks for a couple of days)01:43
LjLi do wonder if i may have some "long X" where X is, however, definitely not COVID, and also not something tremendously bad.01:43
raccoon_dogChronic, I guess, is what you mean by "long".01:44
LjLraccoon_dog, yes but the term "long COVID" has come into common use so i was using it that way01:44
raccoon_dogI see.01:44
raccoon_dogI've never heard "long COVID", fwiw, so I guess TIL01:44
LjLoh it's a lot of fun to google for if you want to be scared01:45
ubLIX[m]about zinc: this old video (March 2020) spends 10 or 15 minutes sketching out some molecular biology in order to comment on why zinc MIGHT be useful; starting at 3mins 10secs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eeh054-Hx1U01:45
raccoon_dogYeah, nooooooo thanks. This channel's alerts already give me the heebie-jeebies.01:45
raccoon_doglol01:45
LjLyeah that's kind of a bad thing about this channel01:45
LjLi don't really want it to fuel people's fears (starting with mine) but it ends up doing that01:46
raccoon_dogI mean, it's appreciated. We need information to be able to combat this thing.01:46
LjLit'd just help if there were like some good news every once in a while01:46
ubLIX[m]the "might" parts stems from the fact that it needs to get into the cell before it can exhibit the desired anti-viral effect, and that it is not at all obvious that oral supplementation can lead to elevation of cellular zinc level01:46
LjLubLIX[m], but iirc zinc was supposedly the thing that could enable choloroquine to enter the cell walls. so what helps zinc itself enter the cell walls? quis custodet ipsos custodes?01:47
LjLmaybe you should take zinc twice.01:47
ubLIX[m]the point is made though that intercelluar zinc deficiency probably implies cellular zinc deficiency and that might justify zinc supplementation if you have been tested for deficiency01:48
LjLubLIX[m], yeah, the thing is like with vit D, if you've been tested for deficiency of something, it's probably a really clever idea to supplement it, regardless of COVID01:49
LjL(well, if you've been tested *and* found deficient!)01:49
BrainstormUpdates for Nigeria: +1964 cases (now 116655), +7 deaths (now 1485) since 23 hours ago01:50
stvnstckomg, somebody give me the 411 on this south african variant01:51
ubLIX[m]near the end of the video, he also says that because zinc is water soluble, it is difficult to overdose compared to lipid soluble things like vitamin D. this seems like a dangerous thing to glibly take at superficial face value, as it must be meant only in the narrow sense that your body can store vast quantities of lipid soluble chemicals. afaik, zinc is one of the few supplements suggested for covid that actually can01:51
ubLIX[m]readily demonstrate toxicity if over-dosed01:51
stvnstckvitamin d and zinc are very good for you. especially if you work third shift01:52
LjLstvnstck, i don't know what you mean by 411, but what i tentatively know about the south african variant is that it shares a mutation with the UK variant and with the Brazilian variant, but unlike the UK variant, yet like the Brazilian variant, it has been shown to escape some neutralizing antibodies, so it may enable re-infection and/or hinder monoclonal antibody treatments and/or make vaccines less effective01:53
stvnstck:-(01:53
stvnstckthank you, LjL01:54
LjLwise people don't stick around01:54
LjLubLIX[m], one must also be clear on the use of "overdosing" i guess. some substances may be riskier when you just take one enormous dose of them, others may run the risk of creating issues if you just take a relatively small amount every day, yet more than you ought to01:54
LjLoverdosing generally refers to the former afaik01:55
de-factoLjL, btw i showed that paper we discussed yesterday to someone with knowledge and she said she did not find mistakes and that it would not be the best news01:55
de-factobut also that she thinks more studies are needed01:56
raccoon_dog> it has been shown to escape some neutralizing antibodies01:56
raccoon_dogWelp.01:56
LjLyeah :(01:56
LjLbut hey GOOD NEWS, in Europe we've barely vaccinated anyone, so we still got time to develop a new vaccine that covers the new variants!01:57
de-factoespecially because it was in vitro and maybe in vivo dynamics would be different, for example with the T-cell responses etc01:57
LjLde-facto, yeah i saw yuriwho remarked that in the other channel too, that you need to see cellular response01:58
de-factoyep01:58
raccoon_dog... oh, you're in Europe.01:58
LjLraccoon_dog, woooorse than just that01:59
raccoon_dogI hope you aren't in Italy ... ?02:00
raccoon_dogOr Spain.02:00
LjLi sometimes say hope is the only thing we can have plenty of02:02
LjLbut in this case...02:02
raccoon_dogYeah. :|02:02
de-factoim sure immunologists are discussing this right now (well probably have already prior to that preprint)02:03
de-factoso id assume we will read more about that02:04
raccoon_dogYep. Fingers crossed.02:04
LjLwell, https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/new-coronavirus-variants-could-cause-more-reinfections-require-updated-vaccines came out before the preprint, didn't it?02:05
LjLit's a lot of blah blah and i understand it doesn't really claim any of the variants *do* escape vaccines02:05
LjLbut it basically says, “The not-so-good news is that the rapid evolution of these variants suggests that if it is possible for the virus to evolve into a vaccine-resistant phenotype, this may happen sooner than we like,”02:06
LjLde-facto, you might not like what Drosten said in this one, “We have to do everything we can now to vaccinate as many people as fast as possible, even if that means running the risk of selecting for some variants,”02:06
raccoon_dogYeah -- and the more it spread around the likelier that is to happen. And that won't stop till people learn to social distance properly, not party like wild animals, ignore mask laws, etc.02:07
LjLanyway, point being, even if these particular variants don't escape vaccines, we now have enough evidence that variants that are "different enough" to have that ability can indeed pop up02:07
raccoon_dogYes.02:07
LjLraccoon_dog, right now i don't know what to think about the tightened lockdown in the UK. on the one hand, you look at the curves, and they *seem* to be reacting to the lockdown even in areas with the new variant. but then i saw some bits of news flashing in this channel the other days claiming that there was no evidence the lockdowns were being effective on the variant *shrug*02:08
raccoon_dogLjL: I see. 02:08
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid: Museums and galleries 'fighting for survival', Art Fund says → https://is.gd/I0zt3n02:13
de-factoLjL, yeah well thats why i keep saying that incidence should be brought down by NPIs not by vaccinations and then incidence should be hold low by herd immunity from vaccinating as many people as possible in as short time as possible02:14
de-factothat would minimize the amount of viral replications under the presence of potentially non-neutralizing immunity to the lowest possible level, hence decrease the probability for selecting escaping mutants that randomly might occur02:16
de-factomaybe our "shield" by vaccination is thick and solid enough that this would not even be necessary but maybe we should not risk the only weapon we have to become dull by exposing it to too many random impacts "bruteforcing" its protective capability02:19
LjLi feel that we're NPI'ing about as much as society is realistically capable of doing02:19
de-factoi would assume that the NPIs are not evenly distributed yet, measured by the metric of contributions to incidence that could be prevented, for example at workplaces (at least in Germany)02:21
de-factomeaning there might be some "low hanging fruits" not harvested yet while on other parts NPIs might really be maxed out already02:21
de-factobut that is just a gut feeling, i dont have data to backup that claim02:22
de-factoi wish we would put more effort to acquire such data02:22
LjLde-facto, well i wanna say "ban all non-essential jobs" but i really am not sure if the economy can do that like we did it last year02:26
de-factoimho its either a) close everything unspecifically and do that with maximum rigor and enforce the most drastic lockdown ever (hence limit the required time to bring it down as quick as possible in advance) or b) do very specific targeting with a longterm strategy to aim for the most efficient NPIs in terms of avoiding the maximum of new infections with the minimum of effort possible02:26
LjLi'm not a huge fan of the "the economy" argument02:26
LjLbut at some point it matters02:26
LjLde-facto, if you remember that paper that correlated various NPIs with reductions in infections, it only found statistical significance for closing schools, and... something else i forget? it wasn't very impressive02:27
de-factoyes but for economy the worst thing is if they cant invest in longterm stability, if they know what to deal with they can arrange with it02:27
de-factoand unstable longterm "barely enough" containment together with a lot of longcovid prevalence hence sick leaves from work it the worst for economy02:28
de-factoand the problem is that politicians seem to mix a) and b) then end up with some unspecific enforced closures paired with compromises in favor of viral transmission, also worst of both worlds02:30
de-factoLjL, it was preventing gatherings at some group size afair02:31
LjLoh yeah probably02:32
LjLi remember i thought "so much for the UK initially thinking preventing events was useless!"02:32
de-factowell of course it has big impact to prevent gatherings in prevention of reproduction of a pathogen that tends to spread with overdispersion in clusters02:33
de-factobut as soon as that is prevented (the scenarios for cluster spreading) it still spreads (with less dynamic) hence probably mostly in linear chains and smaller clusters (e.g. social bubbles)02:34
LjLde-facto, well in their partial defense, we didn't know it was so much driven by superspreaders, back when the UK said those things02:40
LjL(superspreaders, or superspreading events, whichever)02:41
de-factoyeah but quite early there were these reports from the clusters in the (korean?) church or from choirs etc02:43
LjLwell not in their partial defense, the UK strategy seemed pretty silly right away02:43
de-factoi think they changed though, at least their surveillance and science is very good now, not sure about their decisions (have to admit i did not follow those closely)02:44
de-factoheck im already almost saturated with trying to stay up-to-date with following our local decisions here02:46
BrainstormUpdates for El Salvador: +951 cases (now 52388) since 18 hours ago — Botswana: +1024 cases (now 19654), +17 deaths (now 105) since 3 days ago — Gibraltar: +36 cases (now 3881), +6 deaths (now 59) since a day ago02:46
LjLi'm easily saturated02:58
BrainstormNew from Virology.ws: Biden’s pandemic plans: The Biden-Harris administration has released a document describing its plans to bring the United States out of the ‘worst public health crisis in a century’. It is a roadmap for not only ending the pandemic in the US, but to re-establish leadership in the global health care community and provide [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/cpLMkb03:26
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: Biden signs order requiring masks on planes, buses, trains and at airports (10025 votes) | https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/biden-mask-mandate/2021/01/21/5867d7ee-5bf9-11eb-8bcf-3877871c819d_story.html | https://redd.it/l274sj03:59
BrainstormUpdates for New Zealand: +9 cases (now 2276) since 2 days ago05:15
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Joe Biden lays out plans for COVID-19 testing, vaccinations and masks → https://is.gd/JfIkby05:17
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid-19 vaccines arrive in Nepal from India → https://is.gd/KL0swB05:30
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Brazil: Bypassing the Bolsonaro Administration, Amazonas state appeals directly to international community for emergency assistance to combat devastating 2nd wave of COVID-19 → https://is.gd/hYkCyM05:54
BrainstormNew from EurekAlert!: Navigating uncertainty: Why we need decision theory during a pandemic: Modern decision theory can assist policymakers in critical times such as the COVID-19 crisis, argue Bocconi University's Massimo Marinacci and Valentina Bosetti in a paper coauthored by Nobel laureate Lars Peter Hansen → https://is.gd/xy4ZXj06:31
BrainstormNew preprint: Evaluating the Long-Term Efficacy of COVID-19 Vaccines by Danyu Lin et al, made available as preprint on 2021-01-21 at https://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2021.01.13.21249779 [... want %more?]07:00
BrainstormUpdates for Penza, Russia: +236 cases (now 30461), +3 deaths (now 361) since 23 hours ago — Smolensk, Russia: +187 cases (now 20496), +5 deaths (now 408) since 23 hours ago — France: +17036 cases (now 3.0 million) since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +47649 cases (now 3.5 million), +1746 deaths (now 94671) since 23 hours ago07:13
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express (Health): Health: Recovered from COVID-19? Find out if you can donate blood → https://is.gd/7GsRxK07:21
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: US vaccine shortages force cancellations, postponements → https://is.gd/PgcMRm07:46
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Anthony Fauci says US coronavirus infections may be plateauing → https://is.gd/72stqd08:11
BrainstormUpdates for Macau: +1 cases (now 47) since 6 months ago08:46
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: Congrats Alaska, first state to reach over 10% of population with vaccination. (10111 votes) | https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/84691dc5b0184827af0fd8e4c20034d9 | https://redd.it/l2a9ve08:49
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: mRNA Vaccines: What Happens (80 votes) | https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/21/mrna-vaccines-what-happens | https://redd.it/l2677808:55
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Fauci: New data shows Covid vaccines may be less effective against some strains → https://is.gd/6d7T0M08:59
BrainstormNew from EMA: What's new: Medicine: Human medicines European public assessment report (EPAR): Ervebo, Ebola Zaire Vaccine (rVSV∆G-ZEBOV-GP, live), Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola, Date of authorisation: 11/11/2019, Revision: 2, Status: Authorised → https://is.gd/n4AHox09:12
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: New Chinese film praises Wuhan ahead of lockdown anniversary → https://is.gd/ybs2G410:02
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Health: With painstaking effort, Black doctors’ group takes aim at Covid-19 vaccine hesitancy → https://is.gd/1lulqk10:38
Arsanerit!cases micronesia10:45
Arsanerit%cases micronesia10:45
BrainstormArsanerit: In Micronesia, there have been 1 confirmed cases (0.0% of the population) and 0 deaths (0.0% of cases) as of 11 days ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Micronesia for time series data.10:45
Arsanerit%cases turkmenistan10:48
BrainstormArsanerit: Sorry, turkmenistan not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name.10:48
g2`Hello10:50
g2`Any particular pulse oximeter recommendation10:51
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Opinion: The race to where? A primary care session during the pandemic: As a primary care doctor during the pandemic, I feel like I am in a perpetual race. Every work day I show up to the starting gate, wishing for this… → https://is.gd/HCgiQ410:51
generano. i just visited mediamarkt and REWE and bought the cheapest :-)10:52
generabut then again, you cant leave house, rite10:54
ArsaneritI ordered a bunch of medical masks, am now having to pick them up at the post office for which I need a medical mask as cloth masks no longer approved here...10:57
g2`Yeah11:04
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Brazil announces incoming vaccine cargo amid supply concerns: Brazil's health ministry announced Thursday that a shipment of 2 million doses of coronavirus vaccine is coming from India, a report coming as public health experts sound the alarm over insufficient supply in South America's biggest nation. → https://is.gd/5RnhUf11:15
pwr22<LjL "well not in their partial defens"> It seems to have become a pattern, and I'm not even sure what this comment is even referring to! 😀 11:43
pwr22😭11:43
BrainstormNew from BMJ: Managing the long term effects of covid-19: summary of NICE, SIGN, and RCGP rapid guideline: What you need to knowThe likelihood of developing long term effects of covid-19 is not thought to be related to the severity of the acute infectionThe most common symptoms of long term covid-19 are... → https://is.gd/2TZHZ911:52
generabehind paywall11:58
ubLIX[m]the "Managing the long term effects ..." link immediately above?12:02
ubLIX[m]try this direct download pdf link: https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n136.full.pdf12:03
generatnx12:04
BrainstormNew from ScienceNews: The COVID-19 pandemic made U.S. college students’ mental health even worse: College students struggled with mental health problems before the pandemic. Now, some vulnerable students are even more at risk. → https://is.gd/muoGrZ12:04
BrainstormNew from BMJ: Covid-19: Biden launches national plan based on “science and public health alone”: President Joe Biden has warned that the US death toll from covid-19 may reach 500 000 by this time next month. But on his second day in office he offered a 200 page national plan to combat the... → https://is.gd/X0PmdB12:29
BrainstormNew from NPR: Japan Tries To Remain Optimistic As COVID-19 Threatens To Cancel Tokyo Olympics: Officials are swatting away rumors and reports that the government has concluded that new coronavirus restrictions will force the cancellation of the already delayed games. → https://is.gd/HpQntG13:06
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: In tracking virus mutations, most countries flying blind: To monitor changes to the coronavirus that could supercharge the pandemic or render vaccines less effective, scientists must sequence its genetic code to catalogue potentially dangerous mutations as they emerge. → https://is.gd/YJQDLW13:19
BrainstormUpdates for UAE: +3552 cases (now 270810), +10 deaths (now 776) since 23 hours ago — Germany: +16854 cases (now 2.1 million) since 23 hours ago13:44
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Why the COVID-19 variants are so dangerous and how to stop them spreading: With new, more infectious variants of COVID-19 detected around the world, and at New Zealand's border, the risk of further level 3 or 4 lockdowns is increased if those viruses get into the community. → https://is.gd/lOEQ6N14:45
BrainstormUpdates for Switzerland: +2156 cases (now 509279) since 23 hours ago14:46
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Half of U.S. adults don't wear masks around people outside their households: New findings from the Understanding Coronavirus in America Study measure the percentage of people who recently engaged in activities that may put them at risk of infection with COVID-19 and the portion of them who were wearing protective face masks. → https://is.gd/CU73Fb14:57
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Study examines keys to success for contact tracing: Research examining the effectiveness of contact tracing systems in the hospitality sector has identified factors that influence buy-in from the public. → https://is.gd/JGc9Vn15:22
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Vaccines may not signal immediate end to epidemic, researchers say: The vaccine rollout may not signal an immediate end to the COVID-19 epidemic, according to latest modeling from Imperial's COVID-19 Response Team. → https://is.gd/iSgwLr15:35
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Could long COVID be the next wave of the crisis?: In late April 2020 Dr. Freya Jephcott developed a persistently high fever. When she went to hospital three weeks later, she tested negative for COVID-19. A scan (an extra precaution, given her risky day-job) revealed inflammation in her body but couldn't point to anything [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/YhcdI115:48
BrainstormNew from EMA: What's new: General: Treatments and vaccines for COVID-19: post-authorisation → https://is.gd/9V0yxs16:00
BrainstormUpdates for Chile: +4959 cases (now 690066), +84 deaths (now 17786) since 20 hours ago16:06
BrainstormNew from NPR: NFL Invites 7,500 Health Care Workers To The Super Bowl: Most of the invitees work in the central Florida area, though all of the NFL's 32 clubs will pick health care workers from their communities to receive free tickets to the sport's biggest game. → https://is.gd/fZkJjU16:13
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Jordan became the first country to vaccinate refugees against covid → https://is.gd/u0M6Ri16:26
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Covid in Scotland: More than 400 care homes investigated over deaths: A special unit set up by the Crown Office is looking into Covid deaths involving 474 care homes across Scotland. → https://is.gd/6cVXAo16:38
BrainstormNew from EMA: What's new: General: EMA’s governance during COVID-19 pandemic → https://is.gd/nXWOeq16:50
BrainstormUpdates for Netherlands: +7600 cases (now 941068), +115 deaths (now 13428) since 17 hours ago16:56
samir[m]!corona egy16:58
CoronaBotEgypt: Global rank: #63, cases: 159,715, fatalities: 8,801, active cases: 25,743, total recovered: 125,171, in a serious condition: 90. Mortality: 5.51%, case fatality rate: 6.57%, cases/1M: 1545.0, deaths/1M: 85.0. Case rate: 752/24h, death rate: 54/24h. Tests: 1,000,000, tests/1M: 9,671.16:58
samir[m]!corona alg17:02
CoronaBotAlgeria: Global rank: #79, cases: 104,852, fatalities: 2,853, active cases: 30,656, total recovered: 71,343, in a serious condition: 42. Mortality: 2.72%, case fatality rate: 3.85%, cases/1M: 2367.0, deaths/1M: 64.0. Case rate: 246/24h, death rate: 4/24h.17:02
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): A Study of DWJ1248 in Prevention of COVID-19 Infection After the Exposure of SARS-COV-2 → https://is.gd/ceIozQ17:03
ArsaneritWhen might we know whether the different vaccines protect against asymptomatic retransmission?17:03
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Investigation the Effect of Montelukast in COVID-19 → https://is.gd/DOBUIm17:53
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): A Study of DWJ1248 in Prevention of COVID-19 Infection After the Exposure of SARS-COV-2 → https://is.gd/ceIozQ18:05
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +30226 cases (now 3.6 million), +996 deaths (now 95576) since 23 hours ago18:11
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK (84 votes) | https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/22january2021#positive-tests-that-are-compatible-with-the-new-uk-variant | https://redd.it/l2mj3w18:29
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Investigation the Effect of Montelukast in COVID-19 → https://is.gd/DOBUIm18:42
BrainstormUpdates for Canada: +3661 cases (now 735380), +88 deaths (now 18661) since 19 hours ago18:42
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Bamlanivimab plus etesevimab reduces SARS-CoV-2 viral load: (HealthDay)—Treatment with bamlanivimab and etesevimab, but not monotherapy with bamlanivimab, is associated with a reduction in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral load in patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19, according to a study [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/sgCoOv18:54
BrainstormNew from StatNews: CDC reports rare allergic reactions to Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine: The CDC reported Friday that Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine appears to induce rare anaphylactic reactions in a small number of people. → https://is.gd/dAsmLW19:06
DocScrutinizer05ORLY?19:12
DocScrutinizer05maybe 1/100k?19:12
DocScrutinizer05maybe caused by the lipids19:12
BrainstormUpdates for Italy: +13633 cases (now 2.4 million), +472 deaths (now 84674) since 23 hours ago19:13
DocScrutinizer05>><Arsanerit> When might we know whether the different vaccines protect<< wrong question.Rather: when fo we know HOW MUCH the different vaccines protect19:15
DocScrutinizer05>>The vaccine rollout may not signal an immediate end to the COVID-19 epidemic, according to latest modeling from Imperial's COVID-19 Response Team. → https://is.gd/iSgwLr<< ^^^19:17
DocScrutinizer05golden rule: nothing is black or white in this pandemic19:19
BrainstormNew from Gazzetta Ufficiale italiana: MINISTERO DELLE POLITICHE AGRICOLE ALIMENTARI E FORESTALI - DECRETO 22 dicembre 2020: Riconoscimento dell'idoneita' al centro «Syngenta Italia S.p.a.»,  inMilano, ad effettuare prove  ufficiali  di  campo,  finalizzate  allaproduzione di dati di efficacia di prodotti fitosanitari. (21A00254) → https://is.gd/dUC2FP19:19
LjLDocScrutinizer05, "As of Jan. 19, there have been 15 confirmed cases of anaphylaxis after receipt of Moderna’s vaccine and 45 confirmed cases of anaphylaxis after receipt of the Pfizer vaccine, the CDC said in a statement to STAT. That works out to a rate of 2.1 cases per million doses of the Moderna vaccine and 6.2 cases per million doses of the Pfizer"19:33
LjLin my take on "not everything is black and white"19:34
LjLsome people are going to brush these allergic reactions off as too rare to matter19:34
LjLsome other people will freak out and say see, the vaccine can potentially kill you!19:34
LjLwhat i say is: the incidence is low, which is good; however the vaccine, Pfizer in particular, was given to people with known history of serious allergy DESPITE the fact that such people were explicitly *excluded* from the trial protocol, and that is an acceptable way to go about rolling out drugs19:35
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Full-dose blood thinners decreased need for life support and improved outcomes in hospitalized COVID-19 patients in international trial (91 votes) | https://news.umanitoba.ca/blood-thinners-decreased-need-for-life-support-and-improved-outcomes-in-hospitalized-covid-19-patients/ | https://redd.it/l2s7rw19:36
DocScrutinizer05yep. Statistically they are just within expected range for transdermally administered drugs with not 100% human-identical substances19:36
DocScrutinizer05prolly NaCl solution has _slightly_ lower potential for anaphylaxis19:37
DocScrutinizer05flu vaccine grown in chicken eggs prolly massively higher19:38
LjLright. still, you explicitly exclude category X from the trial = you don't give it to category X. this should have very few exceptions19:41
DocScrutinizer05indeed19:41
DocScrutinizer05though, as long as docs know what they're doing, anaphylactic shock is prolly among the three least concerning potentially life threatening pathological states. !00% recovery rate when treated correctly19:43
BrainstormNew from NPR: 'Until Everyone Is Safe, No One Is Safe': Africa Awaits The COVID-19 Vaccine: Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, a Nobel Peace Prize recipient and former president of Liberia, says much of Africa may be left out until 2022. "We don't have the resources. It's as simple as that," she says. → https://is.gd/D2EQGy19:44
DocScrutinizer05let me put it this way: I'd get the vaccinatuion even when I knew for sure they will have to treat an anaphylactic shock then19:44
DocScrutinizer05I'd make sure they are prepared to treat it, then >>c'mon shoot!<<19:45
DocScrutinizer05topic variants: Lauterbach today explained it quite good, we need an R_eff <0.7 to stop the new variants from going into exponential growth, since we know a 0.7 for wuhan type means ~1 for B1.1.719:51
DocScrutinizer05once you understood this, you know why we need tougher NPIs to get R_eff down from currently 0.9 to <0.719:54
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: This couple married for 70 years were scheduled to get the Covid-19 vaccine, but died from the virus before their appointment (10501 votes) | https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/22/us/a-couple-married-70-years-dies-of-covid-trnd/index.html | https://redd.it/l2oga219:54
DocScrutinizer05and the sane rationale behind it, giving reason for hope, is: once our incidences are down to <10/100k7d, our health care offices will contribute to lowering R_eff by tracking, so eventually the tough NPIs like lockdown CAN end and we have a chance to cope with B1.1.7 despite we may meet a few people every now and then19:57
DocScrutinizer05but for now STAY THE F* AT HOME! ALONE!19:58
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: UK public supports usage of tracking technology and immunity passports in global pandemic: study: New research suggests the majority of people in the UK are willing to use privacy-encroaching tracking technology and support the introduction of 'immunity passports' to protect themselves and others in the COVID-19 pandemic. → https://is.gd/gXiY6V20:09
BrainstormUpdates for Malawi: +1316 cases (now 17365) since 23 hours ago — Jalisco, Mexico: +977 cases (now 63256), +156 deaths (now 7557) since a day ago — Queretaro, Mexico: +871 cases (now 40671), +27 deaths (now 2475) since a day ago — Spain: +87242 cases (now 2.5 million), +400 deaths (now 55441) since 23 hours ago20:09
DocScrutinizer05"immunity passports" - fools20:32
ArsaneritI wouldn't mind immunity20:33
ArsaneritI don't know how a passport can provide immunity though.20:34
DocScrutinizer05I revert my statement about neither black nor white.There's clearly one thing that's 100%: the ignorance of those that are not understanding the concept of "neither black nor white, neither sterile-immune nor immuno-naive"20:34
raccoon_dogA passport isn't the thing that provides it. They mean a document you carry around that certifies you've been vaccinated and, presumably, immunized.20:35
DocScrutinizer05I guess Arsanerit been joking20:36
raccoon_dogI'm not sure this channel, given its topic, is the place to crack "jokes".20:36
DocScrutinizer05I guess without alittle bit of humor we all gonna get cracy soon20:39
DocScrutinizer05crazy even20:39
DocScrutinizer05the really poor "jokes" are news like this >>support the introduction of 'immunity passports' to protect themselves and others<<20:40
DocScrutinizer05it fatally resembles "support  a sign worn on the lapel to keep the people healthy" we heard some 90 years ago20:43
ArsaneritI apologise if my attempt at humour was inappropriate.20:48
DocScrutinizer05Arsanerit: I enjoyed it20:50
DocScrutinizer05thanks!20:51
LjLi didn't feel it was much of a problem myself20:51
ArsaneritI genuinely don't understand the discussions about immunity passports or European vaccination cards, though.  There already exists a worldwide booklet called the carte jaune in French, yellow booklet with vaccinations.  Vaccinations registered therein have been required for travel from high-latitude to tropical countries for a long time.20:53
mphiEnjoyed it too.20:53
DocScrutinizer05Arsanerit: yes, indeed20:53
mphiSame in Germany... also a yellow booklet. Most look quite old and used :-D20:53
ArsaneritThat yellow booklet is a UN/WHO standard.  I don't actually have one yet myself, because Dutch childhood vaccinations go in a different booklet.20:54
ArsaneritI can see how there is a discussion on whether or not vaccinated people should have more rights than non-vaccinated people, but the infrastructure to implement this if desired already exists.20:55
DocScrutinizer05and your joke was quite intelligent since such a vaccination certification has nothing to do with immunity20:55
DocScrutinizer05particularly not sterile immunity like implied in this >>support the introduction of 'immunity passports' to protect themselves and others<<20:56
raccoon_dog...20:56
DocScrutinizer05there _is_ _mo_ protection from such thing20:57
BrainstormNew from In The Pipeline: The Other Guys: Writing the other day about the lipid formulations used in the current mRNA vaccines makes me want to highlight something else that I hit on from time to time around here. When you learn in school about the major classes of biomolecules, you hear about proteins, lipids, carbohydrates, and nucleic acids. [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/pxK7jL20:57
ArsaneritI heard unconfirmed rumours that the NHS has been mixing up vaccines, in which people's second dose was from a different vaccine than their first dose, rendering it somewhat not very useful.20:57
mphiIn Germany was a case were they gave people 5 times the regular dosage20:58
DocScrutinizer05forgot dilution :-P20:59
DocScrutinizer05no adverse eggects from that :-)20:59
DocScrutinizer05effects*20:59
Arsaneritmphi: that I heard from a reliable news source21:00
ArsaneritThe one with mixing up vaccines is a mistake I can imagine being made due to poor organisation.  Maybe that would speak for using one vaccine in one region and another vaccine in another region.21:00
mphiWere 8 people, 4 went to the hospital for monitoring. They had flue symptoms. There is a study with 100 micrograms, regular dosis is 30 micrograms... Haven't heard any news after that though21:02
mphiother than the DA opened an investigation.21:04
DocScrutinizer05learn to wear a FFP3 mask correctly and always wear it "to protect yourself and others" - no need for stigmatizing people and create a 2 classes society by messing around with nonsensical "immunity passports"21:05
DocScrutinizer05unlike vaccination, a FFP2/3 mask has scientifically proven high efficiency in "protecting you and others", against all variants of any virus21:07
ArsaneritHow about surgical masks?21:08
DocScrutinizer05quite inferior21:08
Arsaneritbetter than cloth masks?21:08
DocScrutinizer05arguable in my book21:08
DocScrutinizer05I think cloth masks often have a tighter fit, so even while they don't filter as much as the plain surgical mask fabric, their total effect might still be higher21:09
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Coronavirus: New UK variant 'may be more deadly': Evidence suggests the coronavirus variant that emerged in the UK may be more deadly as well as spread faster. → https://is.gd/WEJQp921:09
ArsaneritGermany allows surgical masks but no longer cloth masks.  Many people can't afford FFP2 masks.  Don't FFP3 masks have valves?21:10
mphiOnly in public transport agaik21:10
mphiIf you are over 60 years old you get like 2 free FFP2 masks from your pharmacy :-D21:10
mphiafaik*21:10
mphiIn public transport you need surgical masks, FFP2/FFP3/KN95/N9521:11
mphiDoes any other countries have curfews btw?21:12
Arsaneritalso in shops21:12
LjLArsanerit, FFP3 masks are defined by the fact they filter 99% of blah blah instead of 95% like FFP2. both types may or may not have a valve21:15
DocScrutinizer05Arsanerit: no|valve is orthogonal to FFP class21:15
DocScrutinizer05or what LjL said21:15
mphiIn public trasnport, doctors offices, stores, work places, religious places. For people above 14 years old21:15
mphiHospitals only FFP2/KN95/N9521:16
mphiIn my state at least21:16
LjLoh about what Brainstorm said - i forgot, our TV said earlier that Boris Johnson announced that... the UK variant being actually more deadly and not just more infectious :\ let's dig into it, or let's pretend it isn't true, de-facto, DocScrutinizer05, ubLIX[m]? :(21:16
LjL> The group concluded there was a "realistic possibility" that the virus had become more deadly, but this is far from certain.21:17
DocScrutinizer05I pretend I didn't hear that until somebody with a less weird haircut and record for lies is starting to comment on it21:17
LjLDocScrutinizer05, lol, don't have selective hearing (or reading), i said i got it from him on TV but the BBC article talks about researchers21:17
DocScrutinizer05oh21:18
DocScrutinizer05I'm not too concerned yet21:19
DocScrutinizer05"realistic possibility"  is a weak argument to start worrying21:19
raccoon_dog" The group concluded there was a "realistic possibility" that the virus had become more deadly, but this is far from certain."21:20
raccoon_dogThat literally says nothing at all.21:20
raccoon_dogWhat does "realistic" mean? What percentage and metrics do we mean here?21:20
raccoon_dogAnd being "far from certain" doesn't make me want to believe it.21:20
DocScrutinizer05just the fact that they don't now for sure yet makes it more that obvious for me that the difference is not *that* huge, if any21:20
LjLDocScrutinizer05, well, it comes from a NERVTAG meeting, same one where they announced it was probably more infectious... and they were right. new paper from them is https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/955239/NERVTAG_paper_on_variant_of_concern__VOC__B.1.1.7.pdf21:20
raccoon_dogIs that the actual research article?21:21
raccoon_dogThe published paper?21:21
LjLit is not a research article, it is a document by the UK government scientific team21:21
raccoon_dogOh. I just read. Boris Johnson.21:21
raccoon_dogWell, I can stop wasting my time on this.21:21
LjL...21:21
LjLi don't know why i even mentioned Boris Johnson21:22
ubLIX[m]some reddit comments on that BBC article: https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/l2s098/early_evidence_suggests_variant_of_coronavirus/21:22
ubLIX[m]for what they're worth21:22
LjLif Boris Johnson says something true does it immediately become not true?21:22
raccoon_dogIf you mention a controversial politician who has a history of being dishonest, people won't take it seriously.21:22
raccoon_dogThat's the unfortunate reality.21:22
raccoon_dogAnd I'm not saying he's wrong.21:22
raccoon_dogI'm saying the public will be skeptical at the very least.21:23
DocScrutinizer05LjL: they were right it's 35% more infectios. When it's causing 35% more fatalities under those that get infected, I'm still absolutely same amount of not interested to contract the infection21:23
LjLokay, does that make the information irrelevant?21:24
LjLraccoon_dog, and what i am saying is that *I, LJL* heard it from Boris Johnson, but it is actually coming from a NERVTAG meeting where Boris Johnson just sees the paper at the end, and gets to announce it if he wants21:24
DocScrutinizer05not really, but then it won't change muich in RL, except the terrible numbers we got to see every day21:24
LjLit doesn't "come from" Boris Johnson21:24
LjLhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_and_Emerging_Respiratory_Virus_Threats_Advisory_Group21:25
DocScrutinizer05*maybe* it even helps with people taking stuff serioes once again and finally comply with the NPI measures21:25
raccoon_dogOK. And what Boris Johnson himself said, does it conform to what the NERVTAG meeting concluded?21:25
LjLraccoon_dog, maybe, i don't know.21:25
raccoon_dogo.o21:26
LjLas i said, i heard it from local TV, which *mentioned* the fact that Boris Johnson announced something about it21:27
LjLi didn't even *hear* Boris Johnson21:27
LjLi was like "oh look, that Brainstorm thing, i forgot i heard something about it earlier"21:27
LjLbut somehow instead of looking at the Brainstorm post from the BBC, y'all focused on the fact that i had mentioned in passing Boris Johnson talked about it21:28
LjLif you are uninterested, be uninterested for better reasons. "don't care" is honestly a better reason21:28
LjLas to whether the conclusions by NERVTAG are warranted, i don't know, i'm not a researcher, but they definitely are21:28
LjLthey advise a government, but they come from scientific institutions21:29
LjL(there is a list of them on the WP article i linked)21:29
raccoon_dogIt just seemed odd that you mentioned Johnson explicitly. Like, I'd have left his name out of it, I dunno. 21:29
raccoon_dogIt's poisoning the well (not deliberately, I mean.)21:30
LjLthat's why i said i wished i never mentioned him.21:31
LjLbut it's honestly more like i put some poison next to the well and you decided to throw it in it.21:31
raccoon_dogWell, what's done is done. It doesn't matter, since you clarified it all.21:31
LjLanyway, fwiw, the document mentions *three* assessments by three separate institution finding an increased mortality in the VOC group21:31
raccoon_dogI see.21:32
raccoon_dogWell, that's not good news. :/21:32
BrainstormNew from NPR: New 007 Release Delayed For 3rd Time As Pandemic Continues To Batter Film Industry: No Time To Die , the 25th film in the James Bond saga, is scheduled to premiere in theaters Oct. 8, a year and a half past its original debut date, MGM said Friday. → https://is.gd/txVPlm21:34
ArmourofLight[m]Are we all going to die unless we get vaccinated?21:34
LjLno21:35
ArmourofLight[m]Are we all going to die if we get vaccinated?21:35
Arsanerityes to both21:36
Arsaneritbut I hope to have at least 50 more healthy years before I die21:36
ArmourofLight[m]<Arsanerit "yes to both"> That's very deep and true21:36
ArmourofLight[m]Is Corona going to kill us all?21:39
ArsaneritIt does relate to questions of morality that have been raised in the context of triage, but also before corona.  Do you perform a expensive and perhaps painful cancer operation on a 100 year old if that increases their life expectancy by months or less?21:39
LjLArmourofLight[m], i already answered that, no, it isn't, and for that matter neither is the vaccine21:40
ArmourofLight[m]Thank you21:41
DocScrutinizer05LjL: did they mention any magnitude of value of the incresing lethality?21:42
DocScrutinizer05can't be much, as I already suspected above21:42
LjLDocScrutinizer05, https://np.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/l2s098/early_evidence_suggests_variant_of_coronavirus/gk8iokz/21:43
LjLplease i beg you, read the NERVTAG document, or at least my comment on it21:43
LjLyour answer is the increase has been estimated to be around 30%, but since there is so much uncertainty, that number should be taken with a grain of salt. one of the analyses put it at 90% (but with a CI starting from 35% or so)21:44
DocScrutinizer05hmmm   1.35 (95I 1.08-1.68). 1.29 (95I 1.07-1.54), 1.91 (1.35 - 2.71)21:45
DocScrutinizer05dang, doesn't like %CI21:46
BrainstormNew from Ars Technica: Tech: How desperate are you for GPUs, CPUs, consoles? Newegg tests with new lottery → https://is.gd/GQkWlS21:47
LjLwell, of note is none of those CIs go *below* 121:47
DocScrutinizer05yes21:48
DocScrutinizer05OTOH it seems they look at hospitalized or even ICU patients only? The relative number of hospitalized didn't change?21:49
DocScrutinizer05oh, nope >>For example, with 1,000 60-year-olds infected with the old variant, 10 of them might be expected to die. But this rises to about 13 with the new variant. <<21:52
BrainstormUpdates for France: +21898 cases (now 3.0 million), +435 deaths (now 72261) since 20 hours ago21:54
DocScrutinizer05I'm not yet sure this is no "sideband" effect from whatever, load of ICU stations for example21:54
DocScrutinizer05aka >>6. There are several limitations to these datasets including representativeness of death data (<10% of all deaths are included in some datasets), power, potential biases in case ascertainment and transmission setting.<<21:57
BrainstormNew from FDA Press Releases: FDA: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: January 22, 2021 → https://is.gd/uXnslH21:59
DocScrutinizer05>>load of ICU stations<< when a new "much more infectious" variant causes a massive increase in ICU numbers, the ISU treatment efficiency may - even likely will - see an impact too, which could easily cause a 1.0->1.3 change not directly related to virus properties / severity of symptoms22:14
DocScrutinizer05s.S.C.22:14
DocScrutinizer05you'd need data from same ICI station comparing patients from VOC vs non-VOC at same time22:16
DocScrutinizer05damn, can't type anymore. ICU*22:16
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Vaccine passports 'essential' for resumption of international travel → https://is.gd/YGyNvj22:24
BrainstormUpdates for Netherlands: +7613 cases (now 941081), +116 deaths (now 13429) since 22 hours ago — United Kingdom: +25184 cases (now 3.6 million) since 15 hours ago22:25
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: 92 countries approach vaccine giant India for locally made Covid-19 shots → https://is.gd/cIfQSy23:01
BrainstormUpdates for Seychelles: +128 cases (now 972) since a day ago — Switzerland: +62 deaths (now 9033) since 22 hours ago23:15

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