libera/##covid-19/ Monday, 2021-01-25

DocScrutinizer05let's hope the "new" rules of two days(?) ago will change that00:00
DocScrutinizer05ugh, a week already00:00
LjLLombardy is going back down into "orange" state from "red" starting tomorrow, accompanied by a whole political row over whether the previous red state was warranted by the data, and if it wasn't, whether it's the fault of the region or the central government. And whether the shops that have "wrongly" been forced to stay closed should seek damages. Like any of that is important in the face of the fact we may soon have a spike like Czechia, Portugal or the UK, 00:01
LjLwithout nearly enough vaccine doses to counter it00:01
DocScrutinizer05time feels like frozen vaccum in this pandemic00:01
LjLDoes anyone else feel that IRC's 512 char limit has gotten limiting and it's annoying so many messages end up split? I've always been verbose but I think I notice now that I'm no longer alone00:02
raccoon_dogWhy are the playing a blame game in the middle of that, though.00:02
raccoon_dogIt can be sorted out later whether the region or the central govt. is at fault.00:02
raccoon_dogRight now the issue is to save a population such that a central government is even warranted in the first place.00:03
LjLBecause Italy00:03
DocScrutinizer05I always been happy that my IRC client does smart auto-splitting00:03
MKVA51-Has anyone watched This?  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Lq3_rsBJ9w00:03
raccoon_dogMKVA51-: Haven't seen that specifically, but it's known by now that the Chinese government withheld information in the earlier stages of this whole coronavirus debacle.00:04
MKVA51-yes they sure have00:07
DocScrutinizer05LjL: you're not alone. You know we even have a state federation here, and basically Mutti Merkel only can suggest. Drives you nuts when them local 17 "governors" discuss stuff a whole day with Merkel, Spahn and whoknows whom, then they come out of conference and the very moment Merkel explains that they all agreed on X, some one or two of the 17 idiots are concurrently explaining they gonna do Y, not X00:08
raccoon_dogHeh. Is "Mutti" Merkel some sort of nickname?00:08
LjLI was always, and still am, a weak proponent of the "accidental lab leak origin" hypothesis. Weak in the sense that there is no hard evidence and I recognize that, but I also think there isn't any overwhelming contrary evidence about natural origin, and things that may be coincidences may very well also not be (such as the thing starting from near the only BSL4 lab in the country)00:09
raccoon_dogLjL: I've seen many hypotheses. A variant on the "lab leak" one is that it does come from bats, but from lab workers who were bitten by infected bats they were conducting experiments on.00:10
LjLDocScrutinizer05: at least you have the advantages of a proper federation. Here we have a half-baked solution where healthcare was made the realm of the regions, while most everything else is centralized, and it really isnt working out00:10
MKVA51-Some are saying the CoVoD-19 came from the meat place... 00:10
raccoon_dogThat's a weird mixture of the "lab leak" one and the, to my knowledge, most commonly accepted theory.00:10
MKVA51-I knew butter.. I mean better :P00:10
LjLraccoon_dog: yes, I'm not fussed on the specifics. I'm fully confident things may go "whoops" in a number of ways00:10
LjLraccoon_dog: I have the feeling that recently the lab leak hypothesis has regained some of the popularity it had lost00:11
raccoon_dogYep.00:11
LjLBut it should be investigated properly, my gut feeling is not a good substitute00:11
raccoon_dogPrecisely.00:11
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Blue envelope plan for Scottish jab dates delayed: Vaccination appointments for over 70s in Scotland will arrive on Monday as planned - but in white envelopes. → https://is.gd/5tZ7Xp00:12
raccoon_dogMy thoughts on the situation are this: does actual knowledge of the origin help with creating an effective remedy? No? Then it's not really a core issue. It's good to shoot the shit about it, but, really, one should focus on effective treatments and remedies.00:12
DocScrutinizer05((accidental lab leak origin)) I read a >>... some employees of that lab were searching / studying stuff (bats?) in some remote place and yes, they were bitten by a bat<< OWTTE. Seems a very plausible story to me00:16
raccoon_dogYeah, that's the hypothesis I meant before. It retains the zoonotic origin part, but introduces a lab setting.00:17
LjLraccoon_dog: that's not false but in the longer term and in a broader view, the origin is as important as anything else for understanding how to deal with such a pandemic, and perhaps even the specifics of this particular virus. See my discussion with Doc earlier: science doesn't always have an obvious "practical goal" but many times it *does* end up being rewarded with practical benefits. For one thing, there is a problematic scenario: if the virus did come 00:17
LjLfrom a lab leak, and it turned out that such lab leaks are ultimately unavoidable over the long term when you have a number of BSL4 labs scattered all over the world, then it would become a political priority to re-think the very existence of these labs. Now what is problematic (aside from the fact it'd turn into geopolitical wrestling)? The fact that the people most qualified to investigate the origins are also people who tend to have vested interest in viro00:17
LjLlogy labs, including fancy ones, to keep existing00:17
raccoon_dogAs opposed to an illegal food market.00:17
raccoon_dogLjL: Yeah, that is true.00:17
MKVA51-Dr. Li-Meng Yan, is telling the world... Poor thing is so spooked that she's going to disappear00:19
raccoon_dogAs far as the lab's existence -- even if their existence isn't threatened, it would be ideal to perhaps lock them down further. Ensure that staff are properly trained, more than before. Have stringent decontamination requirements for people entering and leaving the premises, etc.00:21
MKVA51-My sisters in KY had it kind of bad... Me, I haven't got it yet.. Thanks be to the LORD00:21
LjLNot sure the lord is much involved00:25
LjLAlso it seems a bit insensitive to thank the lord for giving it bad to one's sister instead of oneself ;(00:26
BrainstormUpdates for Rwanda: +328 cases (now 12975), +2 deaths (now 174) since a day ago00:26
BrainstormNew from The Lancet (Online): [Comment] Doing better for women and children in armed conflict settings: A 2017 Lancet Health in Humanitarian Crises Series paper declared that the international “humanitarian system is not just broke, but broken”1 and called for action to prioritise protection; integrate affected and displaced people into national [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/q4nKd700:36
DocScrutinizer05LjL: I think that's just one of several possible ways to read that statement00:52
mmtsuchi[m]<MKVA51- "Has anyone watched This?  https:"> Yes, I just did. Dr Yan clams that Covid has been leaked from a Wuhan labo. I can't confirm or infirm that. And it would be very very hard to discover the truth.00:56
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express (Health): Art and Culture: Hit by pandemic, IFFI’s virtual-physical format is main show this year → https://is.gd/kQMPVT01:01
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Center-right incumbent wins Portugal's presidential election held amid a devastating COVID-19 surge that has made the European country the worst in the world for cases and deaths. The turnout was less than 40%. → https://is.gd/gbHdQR01:37
BrainstormUpdates for Netherlands: +5176 cases (now 953084), +59 deaths (now 13578) since 23 hours ago01:41
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Mexican president tests positive for COVID-19. "The symptoms are mild but I am already under medical treatment" → https://is.gd/PXykUI02:14
BrainstormUpdates for Canada: +5000 cases (now 748781) since 23 hours ago02:31
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Mexican President López Obrador tests positive for the coronavirus → https://is.gd/udFchd02:38
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Mexican President tests positive for Covid-19 → https://is.gd/KVPxEa03:14
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: New Zealand confirms first coronavirus case in months → https://is.gd/Fi1Joo03:27
BrainstormNew from Virological.org: Latest posts: Genomic characterisation of an emergent SARS-CoV-2 lineage in Manaus: preliminary findings: Increasing frequency of the P.1 lineage in Manaus Following up on our previous post, here we share a frequency table by date of collection for a total of 142 SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences from Manaus, including 115 partial, [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/nNJHxB04:05
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Mexican president Lopez Obrador tests positive for COVID-19 → https://is.gd/xvboox05:07
BrainstormUpdates for New Zealand: +5 cases (now 2288) since a day ago05:19
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: US to escalate surveillance, study of coronavirus variants → https://is.gd/mpurj005:19
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Joe Biden to reinstate COVID travel rules, add South Africa → https://is.gd/pwKsbz05:32
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Australia approves Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine for use → https://is.gd/54sdKg06:09
BrainstormUpdates for Belgium: +1812 cases (now 693666), +53 deaths (now 20779) since a day ago06:21
BrainstormNew preprint: Tool for estimating the probability of having COVID-19 with one or more negative RT-PCR results by Alejandro Jara et al, made available as preprint on 2021-01-24 at https://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2021.01.16.21249939 [... want %more?]06:58
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Thailand's government use lèse majestè law when ex-opposition leader criticizes king's company getting covid19's vaccine contract (editorialized) → https://is.gd/oWVJlQ06:59
zutt%cases israel07:01
Brainstormzutt: In Israel, there have been 597403 confirmed cases (6.5% of the population) and 4419 deaths (0.7% of cases) as of 6 hours ago. 10.0 million tests were performed (6.0% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.8% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 0.8% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Israel for time series data.07:01
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: China starts smear campaign against India's vaccine diplomacy → https://is.gd/nRWM6b07:12
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Asia Today: Australia OKs Pfizer vaccine, to begin in Feb. → https://is.gd/04xTNP07:25
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Mega-rich recoup COVID-losses in record-time yet billions will live in poverty for at least a decade | Oxfam International → https://is.gd/CUq3SV07:38
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: How West Virginia became a US leader in vaccine rollout → https://is.gd/2j8UpR07:52
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +11755 cases (now 3.7 million), +235 deaths (now 98034) since 13 hours ago — Sevastopol, Ukraine: +101 cases (now 9006), +6 deaths (now 361) since a day ago — France: +18436 cases (now 3.1 million), +138 deaths (now 73120) since 10 hours ago — Jilin, China: +67 cases (now 430) since a day ago08:06
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: Biden to reinstate Covid travel restrictions Trump rescinded, impose new ban on South Africa (10194 votes) | https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/biden-sign-sweeping-coronavirus-related-travel-restrictions-n1255484 | https://redd.it/l4big508:13
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Tata in talks to launch Moderna COVID-19 vaccine in India – Report → https://is.gd/pAhKEa08:44
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | January 25, 2021: The WHO pages contain up-to-date and global information. Please refer to our Wiki for additional information. → https://is.gd/3esA0309:09
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Continued strict control measures needed to reduce new COVID-19 strains: A group of scientists is calling on governments to consider the continued use of strict control measures as the only way to reduce the evolution and spread of new COVID-19 variants. → https://is.gd/ctA6bX09:45
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Australia approves Pfizer vaccine for rollout in February: Australia's medical regulator has formally approved the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine, with the first doses expected to be administered in late February, Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced Monday. → https://is.gd/LQIoks10:09
BrainstormNew from NPR: Biden To Implement Travel Restrictions To Combat New Coronavirus Variants: Newly discovered variants of COVID-19 in South Africa and Brazil could make the virus more infectious and may decrease the efficacy of vaccines. → https://is.gd/60lAVI10:33
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Health: Covid-19 vaccine basics: Why the rollout is so slow, when it will pick up, and who can get it → https://is.gd/XTI2d910:46
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Dutch police detain 240 nationwide as anti-lockdown protests turn violent → https://is.gd/NcIxkN10:58
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Blue envelope plan for Scottish jab dates delayed: Vaccination appointments for over-70s in Scotland will arrive on Monday as planned - but in white envelopes. → https://is.gd/5tZ7Xp11:11
BrainstormNew from NPR: Angered By New Coronavirus Restrictions, Protesters In Netherlands Clash With Police: Many people are angry that the Netherlands has imposed a new curfew to contain the spread of COVID-19 and new variants of the coronavirus. → https://is.gd/pW2RQO12:12
BrainstormUpdates for UAE: +3591 cases (now 281546), +6 deaths (now 798) since 22 hours ago12:21
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: World's richest ten people 'are half a TRILLION dollars richer since Covid-19 pandemic began' → https://is.gd/WDv4ei12:37
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: (news): Covid: How worrying are the UK, South Africa, and Brazil coronavirus variants? → https://is.gd/4gbOmY12:49
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Breaking News: In a major setback, Merck to stop developing its two Covid-19 vaccines and focus on therapies → https://is.gd/RaNuS213:01
g2`Hello13:03
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Six-month Neurological and Psychiatric Outcomes in 236,379 Survivors of COVID-19 (81 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.16.21249950v1 | https://redd.it/l4iv6n13:03
g2`So I think my sense of smell is better13:03
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Anger and grief as UK coronavirus death toll nears 100,000 → https://is.gd/bko4jW13:13
generayo13:14
BrainstormNew from WHO Euro: WHO and Germany deliver critical medical supplies to Western Balkans countries to strengthen COVID-19 response and save lives: WHO has partnered with the German Government to deliver medical supplies worth 3.65 million euros to countries in the Western Balkan region. These supplies – 334 ventilators and 19 400 pulse oximeters - [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/8YSiEs13:38
Never-In-Eternit????!!!!14:35
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +8347 cases (now 2.1 million) since 22 hours ago14:50
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: The pandemic has worsened income inequality, with the world's richest people regaining their losses in nine months while the number of people living in poverty has doubled to more than 500 million, according to a new Oxfam report. → https://is.gd/VArMFv14:52
BrainstormNew from NPR: Merck Stops Developing Both Of Its COVID-19 Vaccine Candidates: Merck, which previously made an Ebola vaccine, had been seen as a serious contender in the worldwide race to come up with an answer to COVID-19. → https://is.gd/DgvjSC15:04
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Pharma: STAT+: Pharmalittle: Merck halts development of Covid-19 vaccines; Moderna starts work on booster shot to combat variants → https://is.gd/miqizC15:29
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine Retains Neutralizing Activity Against Emerging Variants First Identified in the U.K. and the Republic of South Africa | Moderna, Inc. (81 votes) | https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-covid-19-vaccine-retains-neutralizing-activity-against | https://redd.it/l4o9oa15:40
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Second-generation antibody protects from SARS-CoV-2, its variant and prevents it from mutating to resist therapy: The Institute for Research in Biomedicine (IRB; Bellinzona, Switzerland), affiliated with the Università della Svizzera italiana (USI) has developed a second-generation double antibody that protects against [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/sqOrU915:41
BrainstormUpdates for Switzerland: +4320 cases (now 513599), +28 deaths (now 9093) since 16 hours ago15:46
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Moderna vaccine appears to work against variants: Laboratory tests suggest antibodies can recognise and fight the UK and South Africa variants. → https://is.gd/Y3hJb515:53
JigsyINB4 mutation.15:56
DocScrutinizer05.title https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/coronavirus-merck-scheitert-mit-impfstoff-a-723ba2ec-460e-4fda-b878-044a5a41bff216:00
BrainstormDocScrutinizer05: From www.spiegel.de: Coronavirus: Merck scheitert mit Impfstoff - DER SPIEGEL16:00
DocScrutinizer05oh, of course Brainstorm was faster16:01
DocScrutinizer05>>New from BBC Health: Moderna vaccine appears to work against variants<< except Bolsonaro variant P1?16:03
ArsaneritDoes P1 have enhanced transmissability?16:04
DocScrutinizer05that too, plus escape16:05
DocScrutinizer05supposedly16:05
ArsaneritI was checking https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Summary16:06
DocScrutinizer05jury still out on escape of P.1 16:14
DocScrutinizer05we diskussed it here I think 1 or 2 days ago16:14
DocScrutinizer05there are reports of re-infections and failure of neutralizing serum antibodies16:15
DocScrutinizer05as usual, "not peer reviewed" yet iirc16:16
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Dubai restaurants offer discounts for vaccinated diners: Dubai restaurants have begun offering discounts to customers who have been inoculated against coronavirus, amid a vaccination drive as the emirate seeks to fight the pandemic without closing its doors. → https://is.gd/sBWt4P16:18
BrainstormNew from BMJ: Covid-19: Medical community split over vaccine interval policy as WHO recommends six weeks: The medical community appears to be split over whether the UK has made the right decision in delaying the second Pfizer BioNTech vaccine dose from three weeks to 12, in order to administer more first... → https://is.gd/C8eS8x16:31
DocScrutinizer05Weather[m]: asbestos-free https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eternit ? ;-D16:41
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Your corner pharmacy – joining the front lines of the COVID-19 fight: The new year has brought the deadliest weeks of the U.S. COVID-19 epidemic thus far, with thousands of deaths every day. It's been several weeks since the U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued the first of two emergency use authorizations for COVID-19 [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/xcGdAQ16:44
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): SARS-COV-2 Seroconversion Study Among GHdC Staff Members - Summer 2020 → https://is.gd/FoWwwa17:08
BrainstormUpdates for Netherlands: +4325 cases (now 956018), +36 deaths (now 13601) since 22 hours ago — Lesotho: +388 cases (now 8044), +11 deaths (now 134) since a day ago17:19
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: mRNA-1273 vaccine induces neutralizing antibodies against spike mutants from global SARS-CoV-2 variants (84 votes) | https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.25.427948v1 | https://redd.it/l4pnde17:29
DocScrutinizer05hmm  >>Taken together these data demonstrate reduced but still significant neutralization against the full B.1.351 variant following mRNA-1273 vaccination.<<  ^^^  and I'm not awake enough yet to evaluate if or if not this applies to P.1 "Bolsonaro" variant17:40
DocScrutinizer05>>Here, using two orthogonal VSV and lentivirus PsVN assays expressing spike variants of 20E (EU1), 20A.EU2, D614G-N439, mink cluster 5, B.1.1.7, and B.1.351 variants, we assessed the neutralizing capacity...<<17:42
DocScrutinizer05I think I read a few hours ago that Mode,rna already started working on booster shot against variants. I hope BNT will do same17:44
DocScrutinizer05[25 Jan 2021 15:29:06] <Brainstorm> New from StatNews: Pharma: STAT+: Pharmalittle: [...] Moderna starts work on booster shot to combat variants → https://is.gd/miqizC17:45
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: The immune system mounts a lasting defense after recovery from COVID-19 (80 votes) | https://www.rockefeller.edu/news/30005-sars-cov-2-immune-response-improves-long-term-protection | https://redd.it/l4nkco17:53
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +17430 cases (now 3.7 million), +401 deaths (now 98200) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +3775 cases (now 750180) since 23 hours ago17:56
LjL"Antibodies produced months after the infection showed increased ability to block SARS-CoV-2, as well as its mutated versions such as the South African variant.18:01
LjLThe researchers found that these improved antibodies are produced by immune cells that have kept evolving, apparently due to a continued exposure to the remnants of the virus hidden in the gut tissue."18:01
LjLubLIX[m]: remnants of virus hidden in gut tissue -> may interact with gut flora too? And yesterday r/covid19 was discussing another related study, although they mostly seemed to think it had the hallmarks of a bad study18:03
LjL"In seven of the 14 individuals studied, tests showed the presence of SARS-CoV-2’s genetic material and its proteins in the cells that line the intestines. The researchers don’t know whether these viral left-overs are still infectious or are simply the remains of dead viruses."18:05
ubLIX[m]next thing you know, they'll be claiming immunology is complicated18:07
DocScrutinizer05^^^18:13
DocScrutinizer05>>The researchers don’t know whether these viral left-overs are still infectious<< how about replication test then? 18:14
ubLIX[m]"A closer look at the memory B cells revealed something surprising: these cells had gone through numerous rounds of mutation ..."18:17
ubLIX[m]in spite of their surprise at this, i'd like a perspective on how normal this really is18:18
DocScrutinizer05>>immune cells that have kept evolving<< was what Drosten mentioned to be a generic effect known from other vaccinations, and it being the reason for immune resonse building up even way beyond the 21d date of second shot, no matter if that second shot been administered or not18:18
ubLIX[m]also, how reasonable is it to imagine that those studied are constantly re-dosed with the virus in the normal course of their lives18:18
LjLIf you read the reddit thread, people are suggesting dendritic cells are responsible for this process18:19
DocScrutinizer05good point18:19
LjLOther people who are scared of the virus never leaving your body freak out at that possibility instead18:19
LjLAnd someone who evidently likes to oversimplify things says if that were the case, we'd have seen it by now18:20
LjL(As if we could sample every single organ from a presumably still living person for presence of the virus)18:20
DocScrutinizer05test feces18:21
LjLDocScrutinizer05: I believe the reason why replication tests are rarely done in these studies is that they require (at least legally) advanced biosafety labs18:22
DocScrutinizer05:nod:18:22
DocScrutinizer05meanwhile, another day of Germany excitedly discussing "privileges aka greencard for vaccinated" while R_eff=0.9+-0.00 and the VoC doing their best to turn this into R_eff=1.3 and nobody _really_ cares18:26
DocScrutinizer05punch puppets18:27
raccoon_dogThat would be disastrous in some places.18:28
generahttps://www.carpassion.com/forum/uploads/monthly_2021_01/grafik.png.5293cc57389cf6251949b70b76de4ea2.png related18:28
LjLDocScrutinizer05: if anything such discussion is way premature18:31
LjL"Privileges" may be an alternative to making the vaccine mandatory... But only *after* we have enough that everyone who wants to get it csn18:32
DocScrutinizer05yes, we call this "nebelkerze"18:32
DocScrutinizer05every nitwit starts discussing why we need a greencard and how that worked so great in israel (Oh YEAH¡)18:33
DocScrutinizer05and why we even legally can't do _without_18:33
DocScrutinizer05>long pause> somebody from off whispering >>if finally it gets proven that vaccination creates sterile immunity<<18:34
DocScrutinizer05WHICH IT NEVER WILL18:34
DocScrutinizer05odds are vaccination reduces virus load to 10% maybe 2% whatever, but "no transfer, never" is simply silly to expect. And discussing now what to do once this would have been proven is doubleplus-silly^518:36
LjLBesides, even though your link about the bnt vaccine still being effective against the variant is kinda good news, it also shows the effectiveness can very well go down, so we should realistically expect less than the famous 95% after a bunch more variants develop, which they will. And then many people will get vaccinated with AZ and others which simply won't have 95%18:37
DocScrutinizer05particularly since we got *no other problems right now*¡¡¡18:37
DocScrutinizer05LjL: that was exactly my point18:37
LjLWe call it "putting the cart before the horse" except of horse we say oxen :p18:41
DocScrutinizer05yeah18:41
DocScrutinizer05our "das pferd von hinten aufzaeumen" translates to exactly same term in english, though the original meaning is like "put the bridle over horse's ass"18:43
DocScrutinizer05to harness the horse from rear18:44
ArsaneritReducing to 2% means similar reduction as FFP2 mask?18:47
LjLThat's not a sensible comparison18:48
BrainstormNew from Emma Hodcroft: @firefoxx66: Super important & super useful update to #SARSCoV2 PCR screening protocols to help look for some of the key variants of interest today.However - try to maintain random background sequencing as well, so you have the best picture of the pandemic in your country/area! → https://is.gd/QX7e6r18:48
Arsaneritwhy not?18:48
LjLBecause reduction in the blood by a vaccine is quite unrelated to what you may be spitting out from your nose for all we know18:48
ArsaneritOk.18:49
LjLPlus DocScrutinizer05 was just saying numbers that were his own guesses18:49
LjLWe have no idea how much the virus presence gets reduced by vaccines18:49
ArsaneritI just do my best to follow recommendations from Robert Koch Institut, Paul Ehrlich Institut, Charité, etc.18:49
LjLWe do know that the immune system in upper respiratory airways is in a few ways secluded from other organs18:50
DocScrutinizer05a alleged "expert" in a pop-sci TV report right now: >>IF the VoC don't interfere, we may relax a little bit in the next few weeks<<  HELL and BRIMSTONE! WHY they would NOT???18:50
ArsaneritAnd usually when stuff gets prohibited it's stuff I haven't been doing since March 2020 anyway.18:50
DocScrutinizer05LjL: yes, 2% was not based on anything, puled that right outa my rear18:50
DocScrutinizer05((VoC)) my point - and the point of e.g. Lauterbach - being: we NEEED R_eff<0.7 NOW, to *stop* the VoC since for them it's R_eff+0.4 always, if we are at R_eff>0.7 like we're now, those VoC **WILL* come and spread and cause havoc18:53
ArsaneritIf only the politicians in charge of the Länder had the science education that Lauterbach and Merkel have.18:56
ArsaneritIs any country in Europe at R_eff<0.7?18:56
LjLReddit seems down, unless both my landline and my phone connection are broken18:56
LjLDoubtful18:56
DocScrutinizer05seeing even "experts" in Sci-mag NANO telling bullshit like >>we may relax a little bit in the next few weeks<< gives me deep dispair18:56
ArsaneritLjL: up for me18:56
LjLOh I'm silly, it's much more likely is.gd which is the URL shortener my bot uses is down18:57
Arsaneritisup.me18:57
BrainstormNew from Ars Technica: Science: “I can’t tell you how much vaccine we have,” new CDC head says → https://is.gd/EYbizs19:00
DocScrutinizer05then everybody cries >>we need more sequencing to know where those Voc are<< - AND THEN???  Do they hope that we already are at 80%+ of VoC and so our R_eff=0.9 would be a good and sustainable result?19:01
DocScrutinizer05I beg to differ, we're still facing the explosion during next few weeks19:02
DocScrutinizer05>>then everybody cries<< well, all those that are not too busy crying >>we need a greencard<<19:02
DocScrutinizer05somebody called it "whack-a-mole Corona Edition" here. Seems our concept changes to "the VoC moles are 5 times the points". How stupid19:05
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: New blow to French vaccine effort with Pasteur setback: French efforts to develop a COVID-19 vaccine suffered a fresh blow on Monday when the renowned Pasteur Institute in Paris abandoned its best hope for an effective jab following disappointing trial results. → https://is.gd/xxdWtQ19:13
LjLOh crap19:13
LjLOh it's not the same as Sanofi19:15
DocScrutinizer05yep19:18
DocScrutinizer05>><Arsanerit> Reducing to 2% means similar reduction as FFP2 mask?<< one huge fallacy in that: a mask filters in and out, so you basiocally breathe (for example) 2% of the aerosol that already got reduced to 2% by the one exhaling it through a mask19:21
DocScrutinizer05so that's 0.02^219:22
DocScrutinizer05but as LjL said, you can't reasonably compare on such simplified level, though on a more sophisticated level both the masks and the vaccination are just measures with a certain efficiency and neither of both is any close to 100%19:24
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Frustrations mount for U.S. seniors seeking access to COVID vaccines: (HealthDay)—Irene Greenhalgh, 83, considers herself a pretty computer-savvy senior, but even she got lost in a maze of websites and e-mails trying to get an appointment for her COVID-19 vaccine. → https://is.gd/jqiHkl19:25
DocScrutinizer05and in the end of the day err year we just need a sustained *total* R_eff < 1 and we need to keep it like that19:26
DocScrutinizer05the only measure that even variants can't escape and thus our only hope: tracking and containing. So we need to get incidences that enable efficient tracking and containing, and we need to get there as long as we still have the "horsepower" to ever reach there with our other NPI measures19:35
BrainstormUpdates for Spain: +50654 cases (now 2.6 million) since 2 days ago — Italy: +8559 cases (now 2.5 million), +420 deaths (now 85881) since a day ago — Botswana: +1004 cases (now 20658), +19 deaths (now 124) since 3 days ago — Sudan: +247 cases (now 26526), +135 deaths (now 1738) since 7 days ago19:35
BrainstormNew from Emma Hodcroft: @firefoxx66: R to @firefoxx66: How these long branches happen and what it means for #SARSCoV2 is greatly discussed by scientists, but I hope now if you hear it again, you can picture how scientists 'measure' this and why it 'stands out' so much! → https://is.gd/caBmOY19:38
LjLSpeaking of tracking and containing, why has just about nobody at all ever even mentioned the contact tracing apps again? Have we collectively given up on them *even though* Google and Apple have seemingly silently postponed their demise, which was initially promised for the end of 2020?19:45
Raf[m]I think focus has shifted to vaccine19:49
de-factoI think we should not rely on the vaccine, we should bring incidence down with NPIs such as testing and quarantine19:50
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: COVID-19 has more people seeking help for addiction and mental health. But treatment centers struggle with outbreaks: In July, Erica Rodriguez, 20, checked herself into the Renfrew Center, a residential center for eating-disorder treatment in the Philadelphia area. Rodriguez, who has been struggling with disordered eating since [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/aGp1sU19:51
de-factothere was a small town in Germany where they offered additional quicktesting for free and they brought incidence down to 50/100k less than half of the average incidence19:51
de-factoso i really hope government gets convinced at some point to allow quicktests to be sold in the supermarket19:52
de-factoi am not sure that ever will happen though19:52
de-factoright now they are pretty much useless (to me), and imho elderly homes should get all tested twice a week with PCR19:53
de-factoi think (early) prompt reaction, large scale testing, absolutely strict lockdown and extraction of infected as well as their contacts from community is one key to the success of China's containment strategy19:55
de-factovaccines dont have anything to do with that, its nice when they work, but putting "all our money" on one card is not the smartest strategy imho19:56
de-facto(btw i am not saying they would not work, i just think we should have multiple vectors towards containment success)19:57
de-factoanyhow in both scenarios we would need much more production capacity, be it vaccines or testing, orders of magnitude more, its never too late to start with solving the technical problems of scaling19:59
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: What's the concern with COVID-19 variants?: Currently, three new variants of the virus (SARS-CoV-2) that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are creating concern. They include: → https://is.gd/Va15pw20:03
LjLour PM is going to the president tomorrow to officially resign20:07
LjLthen who knows20:08
bin_bashwhy20:09
LjLbecause he doesn't really have a majority anymore, after Renzi (who had been PM before, in the Democratic Party, but has now made his own small but crucial party Italia Viva) got out of the majority20:14
LjLtechnically he won a confidence vote a few days ago, but with a relative majority, not an absolute one20:14
LjLthat means in theory he can stay PM, but evidently the majority has decided we just can't continue this way - a relative majority is just because Renzi's party didn't go as far as voting NO confidence, but simply abstained20:15
bin_bashOH i read PM as project manager LOL not prime minister20:19
bin_bashso i thought the PM for your work was resigning 20:19
bin_bashthats interesting though20:19
LjLthat wouldn't have much relevance to the channel :P20:21
DocScrutinizer05you miss-spelled that. It's PD, Project Damager20:24
bin_bashidk it might if you were working on a covid-related project :P20:25
bin_bashDocScrutinizer05: i'm sorry to hear you've only worked with bad project managers. a good one makes or breaks a project. a bad one just breaks it.20:25
bin_bashno pm is better than a bad pm, but a good pm is priceless20:25
Arsanerit19:22:50 < DocScrutinizer05> so that's 0.02^2    <---  does it work that way?  If I use a sieve to sift out 90% of stuff, then pass what remains to another sieve, I don't sift another 90%.20:27
ArsaneritMaybe the sieve is the wrong analogy and it does work the way you say, I don't know.20:28
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Moderna says it believes vaccine will work against new variants → https://is.gd/cWMujE20:28
DocScrutinizer05Arsanerit: it's certainly somewhere in between both20:39
LjLi'll borrow a relevant remark from elsewhere: <bin_bash> and interestingly (but also unsurprising) 2 masks are better than one because it behaves like a maze20:42
LjLi don't know what the source to this is, but if it's true, it seems it might well apply to two separate masks as well20:43
bin_bashLjL: sec i'll graB THE SOURCE20:43
bin_bashoops caps20:43
LjLhanks20:43
LjLtom20:43
bin_bash:D20:43
bin_bashA lot of times I read an article from my SmartNews feed on  my phone and don't save it and then can't find it againt 20:44
bin_bashgive me 2 minutes to look20:44
LjLi know, i never find things again either20:45
LjLi'm not being like SOURCE OR SHUT UP, it's just an interesting claim :P20:46
bin_bashno no i want to find the source20:47
bin_bashbecause i wanted to share it with someone else too lol20:47
bin_bashi thoguht i had sent it to my mom but i only sent her the one abotu the moderna vaccine variants20:47
bin_bashplsu you know me, i dont like making baseless claims 20:47
bin_bash(and i try to always admit when ive been wrong)20:48
bin_bashomg finally found it, LjL https://dailyvoice.com/new-york/nassau/lifestyle/covid-19-wearing-two-masks-better-than-one-creates-obstacle-course-for-virus-cdc-says/801725/20:51
bin_bashit was a local paper that's why it took me so long lol20:51
LjLbin_bash, ah, cool, although it's about cloth masks (so multi-layered ones, or just wearing more than one) while the discussion here was about what happens if two people are wearing FFP2 masks... may be different, because the material in an FFP2 already acts as a maze on its own, so once it has filtered what it could, it's not obvious that a second layer will filter substantially more20:54
LjLanyway yeah the actual source behind it is https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/masking-science-sars-cov2.html/ which is linked20:55
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine Retains Neutralizing Activity Against Emerging Variants First Identified in the U.K. and the Republic of South Africa (80 votes) | https://investors.modernatx.com/node/10841/pdf | https://redd.it/l4osdj20:55
bin_bashyeah cloth oens but also general use/surgical types too20:55
LjLthat link may be suitable for my collection under the Masks section20:55
bin_bashback when i didnt have cloth masks with filters i would wear 2 or 3 general use/surgical-style masks20:55
bin_bashbut they just didnt seal as nicely as the cloth ones i have, especially if they use the loops around my pony tail20:56
LjLbin_bash, it is also common for healthcare workers to wear two masks, but that's a bit different because it's usually one N95-type covered by a surgical, and the main reason is to be able to throw away the surgical after seeing a patient, but preserve the N9520:56
bin_bashand now i have some nice head-wrapping ones that came with filters20:56
bin_bashyeah20:56
bin_bashbefore i fucked up my n95 i was doing that20:56
bin_bashaccidentally left it in the moist heat method pot for too long with water in it but at room temp20:56
bin_bashgrew mold20:56
bin_bashvery sad day for me tbh20:56
bin_bashbut it lasted several months so i cant complain20:57
DocScrutinizer05since this gets seriously discused, let me add my two cents. The filtering in gaze like in FFP2 masks is not exactly a sieve. It doesn't strictly select for particle size since it works by e.g. electrostatic charge. The efficiency isn't measured by mesh size like a sieve but by leakage. Of course smaller particles will get through more easily but there's no minimum size the mask still is able to filter out21:04
bin_bashFFP2 masks aren't meant to protect other people from the wearer though21:04
BrainstormNew from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Add CDC document about multi-layered cloth masks → https://is.gd/0PwNMt21:05
bin_bashI think maybe I'm a bit confused since the goal in the US has been to get everyone wearing masks to protect other people not to protect yourself, although wearing the mask does provide some protection to the wearer as well21:05
DocScrutinizer05well, that depends. Meanwhile they are meant to do exactly this, according to some manufs. Otherwise it's plain obvious21:05
DocScrutinizer05this is the reason why you're supposed to not use masks with exhale vent21:06
LjLbin_bash, FFP2 masks protect both in practice (or neither, if they suck). they are mainly meant to protect the wearer, as opposed to surgical masks, but the filter is basically the same on both sides, unlike a surgical mask, so they reasonably protect both21:07
bin_bashoh im getting channels mixed up there's two similar convos going on here and ##coronavirus 21:07
LjL(except with valves)21:07
DocScrutinizer05and there's not that much directional asymmetry in efficiency of the filte gauze itself21:07
LjLwell i should be treadmilling so i'll stop speaking and reduce the confusion21:07
bin_bashLjL: right but they were initially designed moreso to protect the wearer 21:07
bin_bashLjL: no worries your contributions are worthwhile!21:08
bin_bashi'm just having several similar conversations in multiple places so maybe i should take a step back and stop confusing myself haha21:08
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine Retains Neutralizing Activity Against Emerging Variants First Identified in the U.K. and the Republic of South Africa (10122 votes) | https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-covid-19-vaccine-retains-neutralizing-activity-against | https://redd.it/l4oa3o21:13
LjLmeanwhile, we have the first identified case of the Brazilian variant in Italy :\21:13
LjLGUESS WHERE? Yes, Lombardy again21:13
DocScrutinizer05I'm pretty sure the facor_A * factor_B is accurate to maybe 90% while MAX(factor_a, Factor_B) is simply not applicable21:14
DocScrutinizer05on double masks21:14
DocScrutinizer05IOW when both waer a mask it's definitely making a difference compared to when only one is wearing a mask. For both21:17
DocScrutinizer05and a last comment to the original question: 2% is FFP3 iirc, FFP2 is 5%, no?21:18
DocScrutinizer05thus KN9521:18
DocScrutinizer05not 9821:18
DocScrutinizer05LjL: ((Bolsonaro virus))  :-/   We also got one already, in D21:22
DocScrutinizer05forgot where21:22
DocScrutinizer05well, let's face it, it was inevitable21:23
DocScrutinizer05we all know it *will* come, sooner or later21:23
DocScrutinizer05maybe unless we would achieve to a R_eff<<0.7 where it also will come but well might vanish unnoticed21:24
DocScrutinizer05I _thought_ by locking down frontiers to England, by massive quarantine and testing on airports etc , they intenetc21:33
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +18278 cases (now 3.7 million) since 21 hours ago21:33
DocScrutinizer05intended to buy some time21:34
DocScrutinizer05but I don't see them using this time they buy, to establish effective measures to fight the varaint: R_eff<0.721:34
de-facto.title https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.25.427948v121:35
Brainstormde-facto: From www.biorxiv.org: mRNA-1273 vaccine induces neutralizing antibodies against spike mutants from global SARS-CoV-2 variants | bioRxiv21:36
DocScrutinizer05yeah, this been in bots the whole day. Alas it's unclear and unlikely they covered the bolsonaro variant P.121:38
DocScrutinizer05when you look closer, the variants actually mentioned are always the UK and SA21:38
BrainstormNew from WebMD: Life After COVID: A Long Road to Recovery: Will life ever return to normal? Experts who study disaster recovery say we have a long road ahead of us before we recover from all the effects of the coronavirus pandemic. → https://is.gd/aa7qBT21:42
DocScrutinizer05öJigsy ((forgot where)) https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-germany-detects-first-case-of-brazilian-variant/a-56307893  airport ingress21:43
JigsyO_o21:43
DocScrutinizer05LjL: ^^^21:43
DocScrutinizer05Jigsy: sorry21:43
LjLDocScrutinizer05, i thiiiink ours is a community case already but i should double-check22:00
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: COVID Has Made the Wealth Gap Even Worse Than We Thought → https://is.gd/Onzaqn22:06
de-facto.title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.18.21249786v122:10
Brainstormde-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Emergence of a novel SARS-CoV-2 strain in Southern California, USA | medRxiv22:10
LjL%title https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-5580261122:17
BrainstormLjL: From www.bbc.com: Italy's Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte to resign - BBC News22:17
BrainstormNew from Bloom Lab: @EricTopol: RT by @jbloom_lab: 2 important publications just out @ScienceMagazine on #SARSCoV2 antibodies1. "Potent, broadly neutralizing human monoclonal antibodies (bnAbs) to SARS-like viruses https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/01/22/science.abf4830 @LisaGralinski 2. Mapping mAb immune escape mutations [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/0H57bb22:19
de-facto"We detected a novel strain descended from cluster 20C and defined by five mutations (ORF1a: I4205V, ORF1b:D1183Y, S: S13I;W152C;L452R)"22:22
gigasu_shidawow conte to resign22:27
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: U.S. new COVID cases down 21% in past week, deaths fall from peak → https://is.gd/aCgQo622:31
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte will resign amid pandemic and political turmoil → https://is.gd/7KzRD022:44
LjLde-facto, DocScrutinizer05 what is this? https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/l4y58a/germany_fears_astrazeneca_vaccine_wont_get_eu/ the article is very short and basically just parroting something from a German tabloid... There's more stuff in the reddit comments but it's basically people arguing over figures that I've never seen before23:00
de-factoidk what are their sources? is it just again a reuters claim without any origins?23:04
de-factowhere does that twitter come from? https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/135381776237271040123:05
LjLI don't know, I was hoping since it comes from Germany you already knew more23:05
de-factoOCR of that tweet23:06
de-facto"A spokesman for AstraZeneca, said: "Reports that the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine efficacy is as low as 8% in adults over 65 years are completely incorrect. In the UK, the XVI supported use in this population and MHRA included this group without dose adjustment in the authorisation for emergency supply. In November, we published data in The Lancet demonstrating that older adults showed strong immune responses to the vaccine, with 100% of 23:06
de-factoolder adults generating spike-specific antibodies after the second dose.' "23:06
de-factowhere would that come from?23:06
LjLThe comments to that tweet are disheartening23:08
LjLNo idea, those lines don't show up on google23:09
de-factoi am very skeptical about this23:09
de-factoi havent seen in on mainstream news or such23:09
de-factoonly critics about the delivery delay we already discussed here23:09
LjLAlso why is this Merck (supposedly failed) vaccine being brought up, I had never heard of it before23:10
de-factobehind a paywall https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/pandemie-bekaempfung-rueckschlag-bei-corona-impfstoff-astra-zeneca-vakzin-wirkt-bei-senioren-wohl-kaum/26849788.html23:12
de-factoalso behind a paywall https://www.bild.de/bild-plus/politik/inland/politik-inland/regierung-fuerchtet-impfstoff-rueckschlag-keine-astrazeneca-zulassung-fuer-senio-75065640.bild.html23:13
de-factoone of the worst newspapers in Germany23:13
de-facto(i dont give a shit about what they write)23:13
LjLHmm23:14
BrainstormNew from Bloom Lab: @AdamDingens: RT by @jbloom_lab: I've long advocated the use of DMS-approaches to  understand escape from monoclonal and pooled antibodies during their development as antiviral therapeutics, as well as during viral surveillance to guide their clinical use. Here's a great example [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/Fcy7fe23:33
DocScrutinizer05LjL: >>what is this?<< no idea, didn't hear anything about that. Prolly a hoax?23:44
LjLI kinda hope so. But I think I'll try to have a good look at the age distributions in the AZ trial23:46
LjLIf I can23:46
DocScrutinizer05tbh I wouldn't feel irritated if they reserved AZ for <65. There are enough <65 for AZ plus some more, and the elderly are already receiving modRNA vax23:48
DocScrutinizer05plus AZ is a PoS company it seems23:49
bin_bashi'd like the pfizer or moderna one23:49
BrainstormUpdates for Rwanda: +336 cases (now 13311), +3 deaths (now 177) since 23 hours ago — Mozambique: +363 cases (now 32781), +58 deaths (now 363) since 20 hours ago — Netherlands: +2940 cases (now 956024), +24 deaths (now 13602) since 22 hours ago23:50
raccoon_dogI wouldn't mind either, even though I have people who threatened to cut me out of their lives if I get vaccinated.23:50
bin_bashwell that would be a boon to your life, wouldn't it?23:51
raccoon_dogIt's ... easy to think that from the outside. These are people who were radicalized over the course of the past four or five years. For reasons you can guess because of the timing.23:52
raccoon_dogIt's really hard to see them change like that.23:52
raccoon_dogSometimes I cannot even believe it's happening.23:52
bin_bashyeah that's rough23:52
raccoon_dogI mean, overall, you're probably right. It's best to just get away from that toxicity.23:52
raccoon_dogAnd I don't mean the virus.23:53
bin_bashyeah i know23:53
bin_bashpeople like that are the worst though23:53
LjLDocScrutinizer05, "the elderly are already receiving modRNA vax", in what country? in Israel maybe... here it's healthcare workers and they've *started* administering to care homes. i see absolutely no guarantee that even >80yo will get Pfizer23:55
bin_bashLjL: in the US23:56
LjLbin_bash, well the US and the UK are definitely vaccinating a lot more than the EU. in the UK's case, that's partly thanks to the fact they are already using AZ, and in the US case, Moderna23:56
LjLhere it's not going great and i would be very glad to hear my parents will receive a decent vaccine but i don't have that guarantee yet at all23:57
bin_bashyeah people here are geting both the moderna and the pfizer vaccine23:57
bin_bashmy mom and step-dad got the first dose of the moderna one23:57
LjLthere was a leak of EMA documents. it wasn't discussed much afaik, but i believe one of the things was back-and-forth between EU/EMA people wondering how to justify to people that the "conditional market authorization" takes longer than the "emergency use authorization" the US and UK are employing. but i guess Pfizer and AZ have taken that worry away now since they are late regardless of approval times...23:59

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