libera/##covid-19/ Wednesday, 2021-01-27

DocScrutinizer05libreoffice explodes into your face when you try to open the RKI cases csv. That's why I wrote a bash script to aggregate it00:00
de-factohuh? i dont have such problems with it, though i always fight with its autocorrect00:01
DocScrutinizer05seems LO can't really cope with sheets with more than a few 100k rows00:01
de-factono not nearly 100k rows00:02
de-factotry it, it works just fine for the data i linked above00:02
DocScrutinizer05========== 1102638 records done ==========  RKI cases statistics, as I said and based http://reisenweber.net/et_al/covid/covid19_statistics.htm on it00:03
DocScrutinizer05I guess LO can't even theoretically handle that00:03
de-factoyou are not using the link i provided00:04
DocScrutinizer05I'm not talking the topic you seem to imply00:04
de-factowe were talking about the links i provided as source for my graphs00:06
DocScrutinizer05my point just being: LO isn't *that* great at dealing with larger datasets, and "doesn't work" isn't unheard of00:06
DocScrutinizer05well, you were talking, I wasn't00:07
DocScrutinizer05sorry if that wasn't as obvious as I hoped00:07
DocScrutinizer05I didn't find a better more obvious term than "the RKI cases csv"00:08
BrainstormUpdates for Rwanda: +574 cases (now 13885), +4 deaths (now 181) since a day ago00:08
de-facto.title https://imgur.com/a/lJZJpVe https://i.imgur.com/dvUDWpF.png source: https://impfdashboard.de/ https://impfdashboard.de/static/data/germany_vaccinations_timeseries_v2.tsv00:09
Brainstormde-facto: From imgur.com: Germany COVID-19: Vaccination (BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273) doses and quotes - Album on Imgur00:09
BrainstormNew from NPR: CDC Makes Case For School Reopening: Federal researchers say, with proper safety precautions, schools don't seem to fuel outbreaks, with some exceptions, such as indoor sports practices. → https://is.gd/NEdolJ00:13
BrainstormNew from NPR: Some European Countries Move To Require Medical-Grade Masks In Public: Germany, Austria and France have announced new measures that push fabric masks aside. European leaders have tied the policy changes to efforts to fend off fast-spreading coronavirus variants. → https://is.gd/tuWRGN00:25
LjL"The council now recommends that people wear Category 1 masks in public, rather than Category 2 which includes most cloth masks. Category 1 includes FFP2 masks, surgical masks and fabric masks that meet specific standards. Lepelletier discouraged the general public from using the FFP2 filter masks, though, warning that they are difficult to wear correctly, according to The Local France."00:27
LjLso Germany and Austria *enforce* FFP2; meanwhile, France enforces "medical" masks but encourages surgical ones and explicitly *discourages* FFP200:27
LjLhow can they all expect to build public trust in their recommendations?00:27
LjLare we still back at square one (aka beginnings of 2020) when these recommendations are made based on what's available in stock, which may be good for the stock, but definitely bad for public perception and compliance?00:28
LjLubLIX[m], what do you think, did i fix the bot too well for mjensen?00:32
ubLIX[m]uff idk. people come and go00:34
de-factowhere I live in Germany they demand "In the local public transport, when shopping and in other areas, a medical mask must be worn instead of the previous "everyday mask". Medical masks include surgical masks (DIN EN 14683: 2019-10) or FFP2 (DIN EN 149: 2001) or masks of the KN95 standards"00:35
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: UK passes grim milestone of 100,000 COVID deaths → https://is.gd/tBc4fD00:37
de-factoexcaptions are hospitals (mandatory FFP2/(K)N95 equivalent) and children (no mask till 5 years and community mask till 14 years)00:38
de-facto.title https://cov-lineages.org/global_report.html01:06
Brainstormde-facto: From cov-lineages.org: PANGO lineages01:06
de-facto"Global Report Investigating Novel Coronavirus Haplotypes"01:07
LjLde-facto, "This report is recent as of 2021-01-24 17:34 GMT. All SARS-CoV-2 sequences were downloaded from GISAID and genomes were de-duplicated based on GISAID sequence name – note that the publically available metadata may not fully allow us to de-duplicate by patient."01:14
LjLi find it pretty annoying that this information isn't fully public01:14
LjLwhat are they afraid of, if i get the full sequence i'll make the virus at home?01:14
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Sanofi, in unusual move, to lend spare production capacity to Pfizer, BioNTech, manufacture more than 100 million doses after setbacks and delays in the development of its own vaccine candidates → https://is.gd/QYZzNT01:15
LjLoh!01:19
LjLwell, that means the Sanofi vaccine probably does suck and they can't improve it :P01:19
LjLde-facto, ↑01:19
LjL"... with initial deliveries expected by August" 01:21
LjL:|01:21
de-factohmm01:23
de-factowhy does it take 7 months to begin with production?01:31
LjLde-facto, well their own vaccine isn't mRNA. i don't really know why, but it's probably a whole different chain01:32
de-factofor sure its completely different, but i wonder why it takes more than half a year to start production, maybe it just is like that, yet i would like to understand where the bottleneck is with such a huge delay01:35
de-factogetting and calibrate all their equipment etc but does it really take many months?01:36
de-factohow about someone paying for 24/7 working?01:36
de-factoi have to admit i dont know the real challenges with such production yet i would like to understand what holds them back for so long01:37
BrainstormUpdates for Spain: +7761 cases (now 2.6 million) since 5 hours ago — France: +14255 cases (now 3.1 million) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +4739 cases (now 758310), +66 deaths (now 19253) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +3004 cases (now 960560) since 22 hours ago01:54
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: REGENERON REPORTS POSITIVE INTERIM DATA WITH REGEN-COV™ ANTIBODY COCKTAIL USED AS PASSIVE VACCINE TO PREVENT COVID-19 (83 votes) | https://investor.regeneron.com/news-releases/news-release-details/regeneron-reports-positive-interim-data-regen-covtm-antibody/ | https://redd.it/l5cvsj02:00
DocScrutinizer05>>v<< well, that's how long it takes to ramp up an already tailored for vaccines fab to the specific (BNT) production process, it seems02:01
DocScrutinizer05>>what holds them back for so long<< let's start with a very basic thing: training02:03
DocScrutinizer05transfer of knowhow02:03
DocScrutinizer05you can't speed that up by 24/7 working02:03
de-factowhy not?02:04
DocScrutinizer05you think you could clone yourself into 40, so you could learn a new language in one week?02:04
de-factoi mean what needs the rest time in the night?02:04
DocScrutinizer05prolly the brain?02:05
DocScrutinizer05dang, this control key drives me nuts!02:07
DocScrutinizer05>>"... with initial deliveries expected by August" << well, that's how long it takes to ramp up an already tailored for vaccines fab to the specific (BNT) production process, it seems02:07
de-factohmm so personnel then, but cant they do something to multiply the productivity of their already existing personnel (plus the one they might migrate or employ in addition) by spreading their working shifts over 24/7 overlapping timeslots and give them additional workers on hand that do the less difficult tasks under the supervision of the more skilled workers?02:07
DocScrutinizer05I guess they already did that02:08
de-factolike a hierarchical pyramid by competence or such, multiplying each working power by some new employees in the lower competence classes (under supervision)02:08
DocScrutinizer05^^^ this doesn't work. There are books about it02:09
DocScrutinizer05"The Plan" iirc02:10
DocScrutinizer05written by a senior industry manager02:10
de-factomy question was: assuming their statement about it taking till August to ramp up production for BNT162b2 mRNA is already the fastest they can do it, what exactly is the bottleneck (and as a follow up, what can we do about that to improve speed)?02:10
DocScrutinizer05and my answer was that it quite likely inclides know how transfer and training02:11
DocScrutinizer05and there's nothing we could come up with to speed that up that they didn't already think of02:12
de-factofor sure that is one part of it, another probably to calibrate and validate or certify new machines etc02:12
de-factothat last statement i am in doubt about02:12
DocScrutinizer05that can get expedited02:12
de-factohow can we know that its guaranteed there is nothing we could come up with to speed up that process?02:13
DocScrutinizer05rather you need new machines which are built to order and somebody needs to again transfer the exact specs to the companies building them. etc pp02:14
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Canadian casino mogul flies on a private plane, pretends to be a local hotel worker, and gets Moderna Covid-19 vaccine meant for indigenous people. → https://is.gd/Dkxdp802:14
de-factothere are bottlenecks and limited resources hence a combined effort (such as multiple companies working together, federal funding, extending existing capacity, thinking about most efficient concepts to maximize personnel productivity etc)02:15
de-factomaybe some concepts dont need so much highly qualified personnel and its more like a cost/investment/technical problem?02:16
DocScrutinizer05de-facto: I can know for me since I been there done that. I doubt we have a new discovered genius around here who has a brilliant new idea those professionals didn't already think of a 30 years ago02:16
de-factoi mean such companies think about longterm investment and what they can afford to invest into, they also have to think about that they probably wont sell much of those vaccines in 10 years02:17
DocScrutinizer05project manager and process optimization are professions, those guys usually know their business02:17
de-factoi really doubt they do everything possible to scale up production as much as possible (in terms of resources)02:18
DocScrutinizer05if they didn't, they'd get fired faster than you could suggest an improvement02:19
de-factoi doubt that02:19
DocScrutinizer05particularly since it's very obvious that the big money is in next 9 months and not in a year or two02:19
de-factoat some point its a bad investment for them and they risk ending up bankrupt if they invest everything into something that they have to assume will have sharply declining demand in some future time when the pandemic is largely under control02:20
DocScrutinizer05so as a boss you don't aorder one jackass to do this project, you hire McKenzie and assign the best of your current and retired staff to the project02:21
DocScrutinizer05and you throw money at it as much as it needs, you know it will pay back several magnitudes02:22
de-factoagain i doubt they are like "all in" on this02:22
DocScrutinizer05every day a million, a hundred millions...02:23
de-factomaybe the startups are but not the ones with established markets and production caps02:23
DocScrutinizer05yeah, it's your privilege to doubt it. I just can tell you what I learned in 40 years industry02:23
de-factoand i still dont know why it takes them so long02:24
DocScrutinizer05I don't think telling you a third time will fix that02:25
LjLharsh02:27
BrainstormNew from Variants of SARS-CoV-2 on Wikipedia: Thorwald: /* Nomenclature */ italics: Nomenclature: italics ← Previous revision Revision as of 01:17, 27 January 2021 Line 11: Line 11: |+ SARS-CoV-2 corresponding nomenclatures This table is an adaptation and expansion of {{harvp|Alm et al.|loc=figure 1}}. |+ SARS-CoV-2 corresponding nomenclatures This [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/xKhE7Z02:27
dTalThere's a limit to how much you can scale up without causing a collapse at the end of the run02:28
de-factodue to what bottleneck woudl it collapse at the end?02:34
de-factoid assume producing the mRNA itself is not the problem but rather getting it into LNPs and those into the vials02:35
de-factoso the highly qualified personal would have to be employed in the mRNA production part at the "top" of the pyramid, id guess the real bottlenecks are more ant the base of it, closer to the end product02:38
de-facto*personnel02:39
de-factoand tbh any standardized industrial process highly dependent on personnel is poorly designed imho02:41
dTalI think you misunderstood02:52
dTalwhat I mean is we could convert the whole workforce to vaccine production and it would be a bad idea02:52
dTalredirect all construction workers to building vaccine factories etc02:53
de-factoi really doubt they are in such big personnel needs02:54
de-factoi think its more like their supply chains and production lines02:54
de-factohttps://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2021/01/26/news/interview_pascal_soriot_ceo_astrazeneca_coronavirus_covid_vaccines-284349628/02:54
p1gasuJohnson & Johnson is expected to announce results from its vaccine trial within days02:58
LjL"It's not a commitment we have to Europe: it’s a best effort, we said we are going to make our best effort. The reason why we said that is because Europe at the time wanted to be supplied more or less at the same time as the UK, even though the contract was signed three months later. So we said, “ok, we're going to do our best, we’re going to try, but we cannot commit contractually because we are three months behind UK”. We knew it was 02:59
LjLa super stretch goal and we know it's a big issue, this pandemic. But our contract is not a contractual commitment. It's a best effort."02:59
p1gasuthink it will be >50% effective?02:59
LjLde-facto, DocScrutinizer05: https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2021/01/26/news/interview_pascal_soriot_ceo_astrazeneca_coronavirus_covid_vaccines-284349628/  is interesting on the whole production process (although it's not about mRNA)02:59
de-factothanks why i linked it02:59
LjLde-facto, ah sorry, i took it from the other channel and i was busy reading it03:00
LjLp1gasu, yes, or there wouldn't be the kind of anticipation there is. how much more effective, no idea. i am a bit concerned about their side effects03:00
BrainstormUpdates for Falkland Is.: +6 cases (now 41) since 6 days ago03:03
p1gasuJ&J vax has been having more adverse reactions than others? 03:06
LjL"The issue with the elderly data is not so much whether it works or not. It´s that we have today a limited amount of data in the older population. You have to think that the program we have today was run by Oxford, it was the Oxford program. And Oxford is an academy group. They´re very ethical, and very academic. So they didn´t want to vaccinate older people until they had accumulated a lot of safety data in the 18 to 55 group. They said it was n03:07
LjLot ethical to vaccinate old people until they had enough safety data in younger people. Other companies took this risk, went ahead and vaccinated older people faster or earlier. If you start earlier, you have more data. Essentially, because Oxford started vaccinating older people later, we don´t have a huge number of older people who have been vaccinated."03:07
LjLp1gasu, i really cannot compare it with others, but i saw an amount of grade 3 ("severe") effects that i found a bit alarming. de-facto pointed out that no one actually abandoned the trial, they all got their second dose, so maybe they thought the side effects were worth it. but for fever, for example, "grade 3" mean 39°C to 40°C. after 40°C, it's grade 4 i.e. "life-threatening"03:08
DocScrutinizer05the problem with bringing up that type of fabs isn't "we need more workers no hit the nails in so the rails reach Denver in time for the event", it's the "ask Joe how he solved the problem of vibrations on the speedex transport tapes, those are probably the culprit why our yesterday's production was junk still, after we found the new LED lamps have a too high UV that we didn't have with the old brand"03:14
p1gasubut thought J&J was a single injection 03:16
de-facto"So, even though no country has done so so far, it’s possible that some countries will say: we will not use the AZ vaccine in older people until we have the US data confirming that it is indeed to be used in older people."03:18
DocScrutinizer05much of the production for a vaccine are most likely cleanrooms. If you ever heard about those, you know they have very special problems03:18
LjLp1gasu, that was Sanofi iirc03:18
LjLp1gasu, but anyway they all have a double injection fallback in the trial03:18
de-factowhat US data is he referring to?03:19
LjLde-facto, yeah, that's a sign to me that while maybe the 8% thing is bollocks, the fact that EMA might approve it only for <65 could be real03:19
LjLde-facto, there is a phase 3 trial of it in the US too03:19
LjLyou can see all the trials on covidvax03:19
LjL%vaccine astrazeneca03:19
BrainstormLjL, AZD 1222 is a Non-replicating viral vector vaccine developed in UK by Oxford University + AstraZeneca  + Cobra Biologics + Oxford Biomedica + Merck KGaA + Halix BV + Pall Corporation + SGS + India's Serum Institute + Catalent Biologics + CSL Limited, which began its distribution on date January 2021 → https://covidvax.org/covid19-vaccine/OxfordUni03:19
p1gasuLjL, well if J&J vax has high efficacy, it may help solve the double dose problems and add capacity 03:20
de-factohttps://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT0451674603:21
LjL%vax janssen03:21
BrainstormLjL, Ad26 alone or with MVA boost is a Non-replicating viral vector vaccine developed in Belgium + USA by Janssen (Johnson & Johnson) + Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (Harvard Medical School) + Emergent BioSolutions + Catalent, which began its testing on humans on date Aug 11 with 60000 healthy volunteers aged 18+ → https://covidvax.org/covid19-vaccine/Janssen03:21
drfauciwhat is the reason schools were closed in the u.s.? i don't understand. i saw this thing that said kids aren't even in that much danger from covid-19. is that true?03:21
DocScrutinizer05LjL: I heard they backed up their data at EMA with a new study on 2000 >65, most of them >75. To avoid that <65_only contraint in approval03:21
LjLp1gasu, you are right, it's (at least ideally) single-dose03:21
de-facto"Ages Eligible for Study:  18 Years to 130 Years  "03:22
DocScrutinizer05constraint even03:22
LjLdrfauci, they may not be in much danger if they get sick, but 1) evidence on whether they can easily pass it on to adults is unclear, with some contradictory results 2) there's a lot of things that revolve *around* school that aren't just the kids, like transport03:22
LjLde-facto, damn, my 135 year old gran won't be able to participate :(03:23
drfauciLjL, did anyone ever do any calculations to figure out how many lives would be saved?03:23
LjLDocScrutinizer05, we'll see when EMA approves it, i guess. or we won't, since the EMA doesn't seem to publish good, detailed reports like the FDA or the MHRA :\03:23
DocScrutinizer05indeed03:24
DocScrutinizer05sucks03:24
LjLdrfauci, that's an incredibly difficult calculation to make. there was a study that looked at various non-pharmaceutical interventions, and their correlation with curves in various countries, and they didn't find statistical significance for anything except closing schools, and banning large events03:24
DocScrutinizer05did AZ publish proper data meanwhile?03:24
drfauciLjL, thanks. ...do you remember the name of it?03:26
DocScrutinizer05.title https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/12/15/science.abd933803:27
DocScrutinizer05https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/early/2020/12/15/science.abd9338/F2.large.jpg03:27
BrainstormDocScrutinizer05: From science.sciencemag.org: Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19 | Science03:27
LjLdrfauci, not the name, but i may be able to dig it up03:27
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +211 cases (now 3.7 million) since 8 hours ago03:27
drfauciLjL, brainstorm found it03:29
LjLdrfauci, https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30785-4/fulltext03:29
drfaucioh sorry nm03:30
LjLoh03:30
LjLtwo different things03:30
LjLi think03:30
LjLwell, you get two for the price of one03:30
de-facto"In our case, the trial we're talking about was conducted by Oxford University. We AZ are conducting the US trial, which we think is going to be ready very soon."03:31
DocScrutinizer05https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/early/2020/12/15/science.abd9338/F2.large.jpg  is golden03:32
de-factothey also seem to do studies on more delay between doses, so thats fine if they proceed with studies to confirm that, imho until we have those results we should stick to the approved schema with results available today03:33
DocScrutinizer05also note which ones have a CI even spreading into the _negative_ range03:33
DocScrutinizer05"some businesses closed" and "additional stay-at-home-orders" have potential to even make matters worse03:35
DocScrutinizer05while schools are #2 after gatherings>1003:36
DocScrutinizer05a pity they don't have "wearing-masking"03:37
de-factovery interesting they are also investigating their efficiency against the SA variants, expecting results very soon03:37
LjLde-facto, wow he actually says "I think the UK one-dose strategy is absolutely the right way to go, at least for our vaccine."03:38
LjLthat was unexpected03:38
LjLPfizer definitely doesn't agree, do they03:38
DocScrutinizer05which vaccine? for AZ it is, for mRNA it's not03:38
LjLDocScrutinizer05, yes AZ. why is it?03:39
DocScrutinizer05seems the vactor approach benefits from late 2nd shot03:39
DocScrutinizer05vector*03:39
DocScrutinizer05related to immune system response to vector virus03:39
DocScrutinizer05pretty much same effect like "better with first shot only 50%"03:40
DocScrutinizer05I huess03:40
DocScrutinizer05guess*03:40
LjL"First of all, we believe that the efficacy of one dose is sufficient: 100 percent protection against severe disease and hospitalisation" ← when they say that, i always wonder, with the small numbers (unless they have much bigger numbers now) of people who actually get the infection after being vaccinated (not placebo), is there really enough confidence to say there will be NO severe cases? like, i know AZ is 70%, but take a 95% effective vaccine, an03:40
LjLd imagine they publish interim data after 100 get COVID: roughly speaking, it will be only 5 of the ones who've taken the vaccine. now, only LESS than one patient out of 5 (or just about 1/5) is usually severe. so you can't really say anything about it03:40
de-factovery interesting interview with a lot of questions covered we discussed here03:40
BrainstormNew from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Add studies about effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical intervention → https://is.gd/FoBWow03:42
LjL"Finally, the J&J vaccine with Adenoviral vector also are performing studies on a two-month interval. And J&J has the same technology as ours."03:42
LjL"And it may be like flu, we´ll have to produce a new vaccine every couple of years or something"03:43
LjLi would like to show this article to my parents but it's not clear to me if they have a version in italian03:44
BrainstormNew from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Add interview with AstraZeneca CEO → https://is.gd/RjEja203:54
BrainstormNew from Variants of SARS-CoV-2 on Wikipedia: ScrupulousScribe: /* New Variant Assessment Platform */: New Variant Assessment Platform ← Previous revision Revision as of 03:02, 27 January 2021 Line 241: Line 241: == New Variant Assessment Platform == == New Variant Assessment Platform == − As of January 26 2021, the British government said it would [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/xKhE7Z04:07
LjL"On January 26 2021, the British government said it would share its genomic sequencing capabilities with other countries in order to increase the genomic sequencing rate and trace new variants.[66]"04:12
LjLthat would sure help. strange it's coming from the UK though which is being pretty EU-hostile now in general04:13
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Wuhan lab scientist published paper on lab leak caused by rats → https://is.gd/LC8X7l04:31
BrainstormUpdates for New Zealand: +5 cases (now 2295) since a day ago04:42
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: South Korea reports big jump in COVID-19 cases on outbreaks in Christian schools → https://is.gd/sOa0uz04:44
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Saudi Arabia in talks with vaccine companies to provide vaccines to low-income countries such as Yemen and countries in Africa → https://is.gd/2bj3Fm04:56
drfauciquestion about this table. it says the reduction in R (number of people infected by an infected person after some amount of time (f(time)=R) is .04 28 days after closing schools but in the Findings/Abstract at the top they say R can be reduced by 3-24% by introducing various NPIs (Non-pharmaceutical interventions; ways of preventing the spread) and05:02
drfaucithat school closing offer the most significant decrease in R. I only see 4% reduction in R after 28 days05:02
drfauciNon-pharmaceutical interventions05:02
drfaucihttps://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30785-4/fulltext#tbl105:02
drfauciare they talking about the opposite ends of the confidence interval? i dont see where the 40% comes from. to me it looks like 4%05:05
drfauci*it's .04 lower05:07
drfaucinever mind the lat 5 things i said. too many typos05:07
drfauciLAST05:07
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Nicolas Maduro’s ‘miracle’ treatment for COVID-19 draws skeptics → https://is.gd/hrxxJm05:08
de-factoRelaxation of closing schools after day 28 resulted in ratio of R going to 1.24 hence 24% more than before05:10
LjLdrfauci, where do you see that .04?05:11
drfauciLjL, first row, .89-.8505:11
drfaucide-facto oh, well its kind of obvious when you just point it out like that. thanks.05:12
drfauci....why is R higher at the start of relaxation than 28 days after introduction?05:13
LjLdrfauci, well you also have to look at the increase after it was lifted, which is higher. the place where i see 40% is "A modelling study from China showed that school closure alone could not interrupt transmission, but it could potentially reduce peak incidence by 40–60% and delay the epidemic of COVID-19." which seems to be referencing a different study05:13
drfauciLjL, I have confused myself. Sorry. I think I made 40% up.05:14
drfauciI'm usually not so scatterbrained05:15
LjLdrfauci, i don't know why, these studies have a lot of noise in the signal. it's not like countries decided, okay, you do the school closure, i do the workplace closure, this one does the stay-at-home orders, etc...05:15
LjLthey enacted several measures at overlapping times, so "it's complicated"05:15
drfauciyeah, i get that. fun math problem if all the data were there in perfect form05:16
drfauciokay what about the ranges (I assume they are ranges). They seem to get bigger as time goes on. For example, on the first row it's (0·82–0·97) on day 7 and (0·66–1·10) on day 28. They all seem to be like that. So they keep it at a 95% CI but the "solution space" gets wider?05:18
LjLi don't know, but in most cases, they do admit that their confidence intervals don't allow them to rearch statistical significance on most of the interventions05:20
LjLthe matrix bridge failing is noisier than the average netsplit05:21
drfauciLjL, allright, thanks for your help! I appreciate it.05:21
raccoon_dogWhy can't it do *.net *.split like the others.05:24
raccoon_dogThat's so annoying; Jesus.05:25
de-factosince its changes over reproduction correlated to specific NPI over many countries and scenarios the CI opens due to different rates of change id assume 05:25
LjLraccoon_dog, because it's not actually a netsplit05:25
raccoon_dogI know. It's the freenode-Matrix bridge collapsing.05:25
raccoon_dogStill.05:25
LjLwell to the server it's just clients timing out05:25
raccoon_dogRight.05:25
LjLanyway the bridge has a lot of rough edges05:25
raccoon_dogApparently. lol05:26
de-factothats why i hide join/parts in my client for this channel05:26
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: Oklahoma trying to return its $2m stockpile of hydroxychloroquine (10065 votes) | https://www.readfrontier.org/stories/oklahoma-trying-to-return-its-2m-stockpile-of-hydroxychloroquine/ | https://redd.it/l5p83v05:26
de-factolol05:26
gigasu_shidahaha wow05:33
gigasu_shidaat least they're trying. that's above average government effort05:33
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Peru orders total lockdown across 10 states as second wave bites → https://is.gd/C2B7DI05:48
LjLWhat an unholy mess06:01
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: UK to bring in hotel quarantine for highest-risk arrivals → https://is.gd/shbEnJ06:10
BrainstormUpdates for Belgium: +1784 cases (now 696642), +65 deaths (now 20879) since 23 hours ago06:46
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Hong Kong’s first COVID-19 lockdown exposes deep-rooted inequality → https://is.gd/Tv90yX06:47
BrainstormNew preprint: Evaluation of six commercial SARS-CoV-2 Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent assays for clinical testing and serosurveillance. by Suellen R Nicholson et al, made available as preprint on 2021-01-26 at https://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2021.01.21.21250249 [... want %more?]06:59
zutt%cases ireland06:59
Brainstormzutt: In Ireland, there have been 189851 confirmed cases (3.9% of the population) and 3066 deaths (1.6% of cases) as of 10 hours ago. 3.0 million tests were performed (6.4% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.0% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 11.5% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Ireland for time series data.06:59
zutt1% to 11.5%.. thats quite the range o.o07:00
zutt%cases israel07:00
Brainstormzutt: In Israel, there have been 613578 confirmed cases (6.7% of the population) and 4512 deaths (0.7% of cases) as of 6 hours ago. 10.2 million tests were performed (6.0% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.8% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 0.8% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Israel for time series data.07:00
BrainstormUpdates for Unknown, Colombia: +12519 cases (now 13606), +381 deaths (now 381) since 6 months ago — France: +23177 cases (now 3.1 million), +684 deaths (now 74178) since 23 hours ago — Sevastopol, Ukraine: +102 cases (now 9207), +5 deaths (now 371) since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +5253 cases (now 3.7 million), +98 deaths (now 100260) since 12 hours ago07:11
BrainstormNew from Il Sole 24 Ore: I ritardi fanno slittare il vaccino di massa. Immunità di gregge non prima del 2022: Entro marzo, a meno di nuove sorprese,  avremo a disposizione solo 14 milioni  di dosi, un numero  sufficiente per concludere le immunizzazioni di 2 milioni di operatori sanitari e ospiti delle Rsa e far partire le attese vaccinazioni di 4,4 [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/9DbyL507:24
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Wealthy couple chartered a plane to the Yukon, took vaccines doses meant for Indigenous elders, authorities said → https://is.gd/W0xv7B07:36
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: COVID-19 Cases and Transmission in 17 K–12 Schools — Wood County, Wisconsin, August 31–November 29, 2020 (80 votes) | https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7004e3.htm | https://redd.it/l5osd507:57
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: UN calls on Israel to provide Palestinians with coronavirus vaccines → https://is.gd/KzP30x08:37
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: A single intranasal dose of chimpanzee adenovirus-vectored vaccine protects against SARS-CoV-2 infection in rhesus macaques (82 votes) | https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.428251v1 | https://redd.it/l5winn08:51
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | January 27, 2021: The WHO pages contain up-to-date and global information. Please refer to our Wiki for additional information. → https://is.gd/2suQsG09:34
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Wealthy countries ‘hoarding’ vaccines, says South Africa’s president → https://is.gd/QVqaRq09:57
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Opinion: Too many Covid-19 patients face death alone. Vaccinated volunteers could change that: We need an army of vaccinated volunteers to support patients and be a conduit for their families, to help them through the worst days — sometimes the last days —… → https://is.gd/HlN8ST10:46
BrainstormUpdates for Canada: +165 deaths (now 19403) since 21 hours ago10:55
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Auschwitz survivors mark anniversary online amid pandemic → https://is.gd/5h2aEb10:58
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: UK to impose hotel quarantine for returning Britons: British citizens returning home from roughly 30 countries deemed at "high risk" from new coronavirus variants could soon have to quarantine in hotels, reports said on Wednesday. → https://is.gd/wk4pW811:48
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Davos: Post-COVID recovery not baked in → https://is.gd/xGOTRt12:24
BrainstormNew from Scientific American: COVID-Overwhelmed Hospitals Strain Staff and Hope to Avoid Rationing Care: A healthcare worker comforts a patient in the Covid-19 ward at United Memorial Medical Center in Houston, Texas on December 4, 2020. → https://is.gd/R8GM9j12:48
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: EU official: AstraZeneca pulls out of vaccine delivery talks → https://is.gd/I3Lz2A13:01
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: COVID-19: WHO races to develop vaccination card → https://is.gd/Dbolf813:13
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +10641 cases (now 2.2 million) since 22 hours ago13:30
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid linked to risk of mental illness and brain disorder, study suggests. A study of more than 200,000 COVID-19 patients found that one in eight people are diagnosed with their first psychiatric or neurological illness within six months of infection. → https://is.gd/zAeFwo13:37
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: (news): Covid-19: 'Poor decisions' to blame for UK death toll, scientists say → https://is.gd/SzKLR013:50
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Engineering and artificial intelligence combine to safeguard patients' lives: Spurred by the demands of the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers at Princeton and Google are applying mechanical engineering and artificial intelligence in an effort to increase the availability and effectiveness of ventilation treatments worldwide. → https://is.gd/sy0eGW14:15
dTalBomb scare at Wockhardt in Wrexham, which is where Astra Zeneca is put into vials14:19
dTalControlled explosion in 10 minutes14:19
dTalhttps://imgur.com/a/orvgCSf14:25
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: (news): Covid-19: Cough, fatigue, sore throat 'more common' in new variant → https://is.gd/3j5cgx14:49
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Explosive Specialists Called in to UK Plant Where AstraZeneca Jabs Are Produced, Report Says → https://is.gd/NymFnU15:01
DocScrutinizer05dTal: such damn idiots :-/15:10
dTalhow so15:10
DocScrutinizer05>>Bomb scare<<15:10
dTalyeah, a "suspicious package"15:10
DocScrutinizer05aaah, not confirmed yet15:11
DocScrutinizer05well, I would not feel surprised, given the idiocy in netherlands15:11
DocScrutinizer05earthquakes in Granada are either too small or too far out of the bot monitoring?15:14
BrainstormNew from EMA: What's new: Medicine: Veterinary medicines European public assessment report (EPAR): Vaxxitek HVT+IBD, Infectious bursal disease and Marek's disease vaccine (live recombinant), Date of authorisation: 09/08/2002, Revision: 13, Status: Authorised → https://is.gd/3Rs5Vo15:25
CoronaBot04/r/covid19: Vaccine 2.0: Moderna and other companies plan tweaks that would protect against new coronavirus mutations (87 votes) | https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new | https://redd.it/l63mq915:48
BrainstormNew from BMJ: Covid-19: NHS will prioritise four most at-risk groups for second doses, says Stevens: The NHS will prioritise giving second doses of covid-19 vaccine to over 70s, clinically extremely vulnerable people, and frontline health workers before it starts vaccinating other at-risk groups,... → https://is.gd/Cdhygb15:48
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Those Covid-19 variants? ‘Don’t worry yet,’ vaccine expert says: A vaccine expert addresses a question on everyone’s mind: How worried should we be about new variants of the virus that causes Covid-19? → https://is.gd/oopf2f16:11
BrainstormUpdates for Cuba: +825 cases (now 23439), +4 deaths (now 204) since 22 hours ago — Netherlands: +4468 cases (now 964447), +74 deaths (now 13746) since 19 hours ago17:27
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Repurposed Approved Therapies for Outpatient Treatment of Patients With Early-Onset COVID-19 and Mild Symptoms → https://is.gd/KEtDpg17:41
sully42sup jacklsw 18:10
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +25308 cases (now 3.7 million), +1725 deaths (now 101887) since 23 hours ago18:16
snakehi, is hygeine possible?18:28
snakei go to mcdonalds, pay with a card, their hand touches my card, i touch my card, which i put into my wallet with my hands18:28
snakenext they give me the bag, i touch the bag, and i leave18:29
snakeim not gonna even talk about the door handles, car steering wheel etc18:29
snakeim home now, i wash my hands, grab the bag (which was touched earlier before i washed my hands). now they're dirty again18:29
bin_bash1) hygiene is possible18:30
bin_bashidk how you would think it isn't possible18:30
bin_bashsnake: did you consider wiping down the bag?18:30
snakeok i wipe the bag, wash my hands again, and reach into the bag to grab my food18:31
snakefood is wrapped, 2-3 workers touched the food and the wrappers before i did18:31
snakenow what18:31
snakei've washed my hands at least twice and they're still dirty :/18:31
snakei also washed the bag18:33
snakenot only am i trying my best and still failing, but now i have ocd, a psychiatric disorder18:34
BrainstormUpdates for Switzerland: +2222 cases (now 517705) since 19 hours ago — Canada: +4105 cases (now 760211) since 23 hours ago18:47
BrainstormUpdates for Italy: +15191 cases (now 2.5 million), +467 deaths (now 86889) since 22 hours ago19:18
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: There's 'a path forward' to reopening schools, CDC officials say: (HealthDay)—With most in-person classes curtailed or canceled in schools across the United States since last spring, kids and their parents have had a really tough year. → https://is.gd/TTsD5r19:30
LjLi'm pretty annoyed that in the official data in Italy they switched from listing daily PCR tests to daily tests including quick tests19:46
LjL"suddenly" (i mean since some time, it's not a new thing, i'm just venting on it now) the positive rate went down from >10% to ~5%19:46
LjLso people are happier, and so i have a harder time to compare things19:46
bin_bashsnake: well if you don't trust the restaurant to handle things properly, don't eat ther.e19:51
bin_bashI don't eat at fast food places now for this reason19:52
snakebin_bash, i see20:00
snakeguess i'll die20:00
snakelol20:00
snake(i hate cooking enough that i will just wash my hands once and try not to think too much about the germs)20:01
bin_bashsnake: if you think their hands were dirty when they touched the food wrappers, why would their hands be clean when they make the food?20:01
snakebin_bash, exactly20:02
bin_bashSo then why would you eat the food?20:02
snakewell i think its likely they might be unclean20:02
snakebin_bash, i hate cooking20:02
bin_bashis mcdonalds the only thing?20:02
snakeand i need to eat20:02
snakewell there are other fast food places20:02
snakeand resturaunts20:02
snakesame thing really20:02
bin_bashi tend to trust some restaurants to have good hygiene20:03
bin_bashi dont trust fast food to though20:03
snakei see20:04
bin_bashusually what I do is when the food arrives I wipe down the bad and anything the delivery person might have touched (any drink cups or whatnot) then i wash my hands, then i open the bag, then i wash my hands again, and then i take the food containers out20:04
snakebin_bash, i washed my hands according to the rules for the first few weeks that i worked there, but eventually i just stopped caring, i wore gloves when i tocuhed food though, but not wrapped food and bags20:04
bin_bashif i don't trust a place to handle the food containers properly then I don't eat there and it's the delivery drivers Im more concerned about20:04
snakeof course there wasnt a pandemic at the time, and my hands were relatively clean20:04
bin_bashright, pre-pandemic I was also not as concerned20:05
snakeok wash the bag, wash the wrapper, wash hands, then eat the food20:05
bin_bashi just use like a disinfecting wipe20:06
snakewash the disinfecting wipes, got it20:06
bin_bashlol20:06
snakethen wash me hands 3 more times20:06
snakefor good luck20:06
bin_bashthen sacrifice a virgin20:06
bin_bashjk20:06
snakelol20:06
bin_bashbut seriously, i think washing the bag would be an issue if it's paper20:06
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: (news): Charities funding plea for Covid-19 bereavement support → https://is.gd/5URksU20:06
bin_bashi just give it a wipe and throw it away20:06
snakei just put my whole bag in the dishwasher and ran it through20:07
bin_bashhahahaha20:07
bin_bashdelicious sous vide mcdonalds! now with essence of detergent20:07
bin_bashi empathise with you though snake i've got bad anxiety with some obsessive tendencies as well20:08
BrainstormUpdates for Spain: +40285 cases (now 2.7 million), +492 deaths (now 57291) since 23 hours ago20:08
bin_bashsnake: on the upside as far as i know there havent been any documented cases of food-borne covid and surface transmission is fairly low so the food itself should be ok20:09
snakenice thats good20:09
bin_bashplus each individual restaurant is different. some mcdonalds are better or worse than others20:10
bin_bashthe one by you could be good, and youd know better than me whether it;s clean or not20:10
snakenot sure anymore cause the turnover is so high20:10
bin_bashyeah fair20:11
bin_bashwell, you could always stop in and kind of observe20:11
bin_bashask people honestly 20:11
bin_bashbe like "i used to work here so level with me... are yall following guideliens? would you eat food from here as a customer?"20:11
snakewhen do i start washing them20:12
bin_bashwashing hat20:12
bin_bashwhat**20:12
snakethe workers20:12
bin_bashlolol20:12
bin_bashimmediately, just take a garden hose20:12
bin_bash:P20:12
snakexD20:12
bin_bash"It looks a little dirty so lemme help" *SPRAY VIOLENTLY*20:13
bin_bash"ah much better. i'll have a #1."20:13
snakelol20:13
DocScrutinizer05snake: ((hygiene)) maybe carefully unpack food and place it on a clean plate, then wash your hands and place the plate into microwave to re-heat and sterilize it?20:36
DocScrutinizer05or just have a 250g vodka with your meal, sterilizing each bite in mouth ;-D20:37
DocScrutinizer05wait, that might as well kill you long term20:38
DocScrutinizer05I honestly prefer that stuff like chucken chunks that get handled with a gripping pliers, and I prefer those fast food restaurants where I see the preparation process from counter20:51
DocScrutinizer05chicken, even20:51
DocScrutinizer05or fries. when I see the dude preparing it is wearing those thin transparent one-time gloves, I *might* enjoy a burger too20:54
DocScrutinizer05if not, I came to the conclusion I rather wouldn't want to eat there, no matter if corona or not20:54
DocScrutinizer05burger eating procedure: carefully unfold the wrapper paper and place burger on paper on table. sterilize hands, grab burger without paper for eating20:56
DocScrutinizer05I think yes, hygiene _is_ possible20:57
DocScrutinizer05if in doubt, watch a few episodes of "Monk" ;-D20:58
BrainstormUpdates for France: +322 deaths (now 74271) since 23 hours ago21:04
de-factowhen i unpack stuff i unpack the exterior without touching the internals at all (letting them fall out or such), then i go wash my hands and maybe do same procedure with each internal of a package again21:10
de-factowhen i order pizza i just preheat the oven to very high and bake it again for short time21:14
de-factowhen it begins to change color i feel like virions are damaged enough that i might eat them without worries, but maybe its just psychology21:15
DocScrutinizer05^^^21:24
DocScrutinizer05can't find that Monk|Shalhoub video clip where he elaborates on proper anti-corona measures21:25
CoronaBot04/r/coronavirus: Sick kids in class, teachers punished for speaking out: Over 780 COVID-19 complaints reveal schools ignoring safety (10099 votes) | https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/education/2021/01/27/biden-covid-19-plan-looks-safety-students-teachers-defy-rules/4257689001/ | https://redd.it/l62qgt21:32
BrainstormNew from ProPublica: The Government Donald Trump Left Behind: by Chris Morran ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published. Donald Trump was elected president in 2016 following a campaign of pledges to build a wall along the border with Mexico, repeal and [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/tfeoXo21:50
blkshpooh i've been offered a random free test22:04
BrainstormUpdates for Switzerland: +55 deaths (now 9259) since 23 hours ago22:31
duckgoosenO wORsE ThAn ThE FlU22:49
BrainstormUpdates for UAE: +3939 cases (now 289086), +6 deaths (now 811) since a day ago — Canada: +4935 cases (now 761662) since 23 hours ago23:14
duckgoosethis channel is depressing23:17
LjLI mean, if he thought it would be partyland...23:52
raccoon_dogIt is depressing, but you kind of know that going in.23:52
raccoon_dogIt's the nature of the beast.23:52
LjLI love those who feel the need to make a comment like that before leaving a channel. And it's not like he came on freenode yesterday23:52
qkallignorance is bliss23:52
LjLAnyway, here's the daily-thing-that-will-anger de-facto23:53
LjL9,99Brainstorm:99,99 New99,99 from r/WorldNews:99,99 worldnews:99,99 Study finds virus cases in Japan surged after 'Go To travel' campaign - The Mainichi → https://is.gd/em1MjX23:53
deegoreality is depressing23:53
dzhoso I sort of forgot about this channel, even though I've been idling23:55
dzhoLjL: I'm wondering if you took a critical look at the New York state transmission figures, or know of a good resource for that.23:55
dzhoparticularly, far and away they show the biggest venue in which transmission occurred was small in-home gatherings. 23:56
dzhowhat I can't quite tease out is whether that is meant to be exclusively interhousehold gatherings, or if it includes transmission occurring amongst those within the same household23:57
dzhoas in, one member gets it, comes home, infects everyone else. 23:57
dzhobecause those are very different situations in terms of policy and the feasibility of intervention23:58
dzhoand if same-household transmission isn't included in those figures, one wonders how they compare23:58

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