whytek | Does anbody know if this information is available elsewhere without the goddam google captcha? | 00:10 |
---|---|---|
whytek | https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm | 00:10 |
DocScrutinizer05 | >>Tehran expects to receive the first batch of Moscow's Sputnik V<< wait, didn't they tell the world to go get lost and they will do THEIR OWN IRANIAN ACME VACCINE? | 00:11 |
LjL | whytek, i don't know of a page like that, except https://reopen.europa.eu/en/map/DEU/5006 but that's limited to the European Union | 00:16 |
LjL | DocScrutinizer05, 20% enriched vaccine? | 00:17 |
LjL | i knew of some places that track restrictions in each country, not specifically travel restrictions but in general, but even then, i've kind of lost track of which they were :( | 00:18 |
DocScrutinizer05 | whytek: try cookies _cloud=ddd711566676d816e617519e71fc8e55a1612048473 and PHPSESSID=khj2en6a9p1bednsmlu1qu262r | 00:19 |
Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Add IATA travel page → https://is.gd/Lu3ACu | 00:23 |
de-facto | imho it does not make sense that EU countries do their own travel restrictions yet have open borders in Schengen then, they should stop all traveling outside EU in order to let the borders open inside EU | 00:27 |
de-facto | but i read it may already be too late, N501Y spreading fast and also some cases of E484K already (was it in Portugal too) | 00:27 |
de-facto | they now thing about banning flights from Brazil, way too late :( | 00:27 |
DocScrutinizer05 | may enter: unmarried partners of Germans. They must have written signed invitation, copy of passport of german partner, aaaaand... (*BOOM-TZZZ*) they must be able to **present proof of their relationsship** --- THAT my friends IS GERMANY | 00:30 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Sri Lanka: +848 cases (now 63293), +8 deaths (now 313) since a day ago | 00:30 |
de-facto | so maybe they should let airtravel passengers sign that they assure and really really promise by heart that they dont import E484K or similar, problem solved :((( | 00:32 |
de-facto | https://nextstrain.org/groups/neherlab/ncov/S.E484?c=gt-S_484 | 00:33 |
DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: it's a pathetic and embarrassing obvious fact that germany isn't capable to establish a proper testing and quarantine frontier management | 00:34 |
de-facto | but hey maybe those that would sign such a confirmation despite importing E484K et al may be held responsible for paying the vaccine developers for their update? and the economic losses for further lockdowns? | 00:35 |
de-facto | just give them the bill, there is no problem :((( | 00:35 |
DocScrutinizer05 | gosh,this negativism all the time... unless ultimately declaring "this is unacceptable!!" and demanding stuff that obviously can't get established or accomplished | 00:36 |
de-facto | interestingly such strains start to spread around the big airports, such as London, so who knows it N501Y even originated in UK... | 00:37 |
DocScrutinizer05 | pretty likely not | 00:39 |
de-facto | because this could also explain the unsteady jump for it in the graph of mutations over time, maybe it was just imported from who-knows-where | 00:40 |
de-facto | adn then first time was sequenced in London because of their surveillance program | 00:41 |
DocScrutinizer05 | did new zealand ever lock frontiers? or did they always "just" enforce strict quarantine? | 00:41 |
de-facto | i mean this Figure 2 in https://virological.org/t/preliminary-genomic-characterisation-of-an-emergent-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-the-uk-defined-by-a-novel-set-of-spike-mutations/563 | 00:42 |
de-facto | (the first post about B.1.1.7) | 00:42 |
DocScrutinizer05 | well, it got sequenced in UK because one of three factors - a surplus one only used in UK - of their tests didn't register. So they had freak test results and thus started sequencing | 00:43 |
de-facto | yeah the S-gene blackout, its pretty nice technique now because it immediately could distinguish variants with primers specifically designed for that mutation | 00:44 |
LjL | right now they're still just using that particular test because of that fortuitous feature | 00:44 |
de-facto | sequencing would take much longer than only to do a RT-PCR with a set of primers about the most common variants of concern | 00:44 |
LjL | couldn't new tests be designed with the ability to do this on demand in mind? | 00:44 |
de-facto | yes | 00:45 |
DocScrutinizer05 | the great sequencing coverage of UK being the reason they found B1.1.7 is just an urban legend | 00:45 |
LjL | as in, the moment a new variant is identified, you start producing tests that identify that variant, and you make it much cheaper than sequencing | 00:45 |
de-facto | LjL, i mean yes ofc for every known variant of concern on their radar they should be able to design a primer in such a way that it indicates a specific mutation | 00:45 |
LjL | DocScrutinizer05, well they also do sequence much more, though. it may not be the reason but it's true | 00:45 |
DocScrutinizer05 | yes | 00:45 |
DocScrutinizer05 | but it's not exactly like UK was smart enough to do "the right thing" and we were not | 00:46 |
LjL | i think sequencing a lot is the right thing :P | 00:47 |
LjL | even if it's not what let them catch the variant, it's still a good thing to do | 00:47 |
LjL | and we (almost) aren't doing it | 00:47 |
DocScrutinizer05 | yes, and that's why everybody starts doing it now, even UK | 00:47 |
LjL | sometimes *with the help of* the UK | 00:48 |
DocScrutinizer05 | they readjust sequencing to haunt mutants | 00:48 |
de-facto | .title https://covidcg.org/?tab=global_sequencing | 00:48 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From covidcg.org: COVID CG | 00:48 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Nipah virus in China with up to 75 pct fatality rate could be next pandemic: Report → https://is.gd/CyZKnW | 00:48 |
LjL | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#New_Variant_Assessment_Platform | 00:48 |
LjL | On 26 January 2021, the British government said it would share its genomic sequencing capabilities with other countries in order to increase the genomic sequencing rate and trace new variants.[65] As of January 2021, more than half of all genomic sequencing of COVID-19 was carried out in the UK.[66] | 00:48 |
LjL | uhm i don't like this new paragraph https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#mRNA_vaccine_effectiveness it's based on a preprint and claiming "there is only minor, at most, reduction of effectiveness" seems like original research since serum neutralization may not correspond with real life effectiveness | 00:50 |
LjL | the paper never uses the term "at most" | 00:50 |
DocScrutinizer05 | and my point still stands that testing >>> sequencing. We wouldn't change a lot from knowing how much of B1.1.7 or any other mutant was around | 00:50 |
de-facto | we to be fair the new variant also is a great thing to put the blame onto for failed containment by the management | 00:50 |
de-facto | LjL, yeah thats why i think the Manaus paper is so important, thats a real life situation there | 00:52 |
de-facto | title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext | 00:53 |
de-facto | .title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext | 00:53 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.thelancet.com: Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence - The Lancet | 00:53 |
de-facto | "Published:January 27, 2021" | 00:53 |
de-facto | well or its a comment, not a full blown paper | 00:54 |
de-facto | what does that mean for peer review? | 00:54 |
de-facto | i mean it listing the possible causes for the observation seems like the intend to start a important discussion about this right now | 00:55 |
de-facto | btw I find it quite interesting, we talked about the possibility that new variants could cause the peak raising in all over Europe and i was sure they did not had a proper mutation radar back then, now we see how bad the surveillance really was (and still is) in many countries (with few exceptions) in terms of sequencing | 00:59 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Paris protests over privacy law boil over amid anger at coronavirus restrictions → https://is.gd/7Nw7Gr | 01:00 |
de-facto | we really do need sequencing, because we will see many more variants with (partial) immune evasion and if we have them on the radar early enough vaccine developers could integrate updates to a polyclonal version of their vaccines | 01:01 |
de-facto | therefore its also important to understand the dynamics of the new variants spreading to be able to develop strategies to stay ahead of them | 01:02 |
de-facto | without representative sequencing all this is not possible | 01:03 |
de-facto | and if new variants spread all over the world in weeks rather than months it will be much more challenging to stay ahead of them in terms of "updated immunity" in the local population | 01:04 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I think there's no reason to assume the new variants had any other dynamics than the original one. They are just more efficient some of them | 01:19 |
DocScrutinizer05 | they will still spread on the same occasions, in the same places, and defeated by the same NPI | 01:20 |
DocScrutinizer05 | and even _if_ there were slight differences, it's not like we knew faintly enough about the original virus to be able to notice any such differences | 01:23 |
DocScrutinizer05 | of course vaccine manufs shall already start producing a next version colloquially dubbed "booster shot" | 01:26 |
DocScrutinizer05 | anyway >>For my money, if symptomatic infection doesn’t lead to severe disease, we’re home free, new variants or no<< from a comment in one of Lowe's blogs | 01:27 |
DocScrutinizer05 | for now all that really counts it getting into spring without running into a mega disaster. For that we need to bring down incidences to <<50/100k7d, and we have to do this by "simply" applying and complying with the well known basic measures. No vaccine will help us, no closed frontiers will be a replacement for this | 01:33 |
de-facto | well yeah the transmission paths will remain the same more or less, but if its a new variant it has some new properties or increased abilities, its spread dynamics also will change, e.g. it being more contagious, causing more severe disease, different spectrum of symptoms, evade some tests, evade immunity etc | 01:33 |
de-facto | maybe also concentrate on different organs at some point | 01:34 |
DocScrutinizer05 | get the incidences down and you'll hardly see many mutations | 01:35 |
DocScrutinizer05 | simple as that | 01:35 |
de-facto | yes full ack | 01:35 |
de-facto | its the *only* way to prevent new variants | 01:36 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: COVID-19 reduces fertility in men, study suggests → https://is.gd/U0jxjO | 01:37 |
de-facto | the problem is that incidence would have to be forced down globally and synchronously, otherwise traveling will spread newly breads all around as we observe for over one year now | 01:39 |
de-facto | and if they are immune escape variants even vaccination will only partly protect us from those, the better their ability to evade immunity the sooner it may spread again even in a population that was immunized for a previous variant | 01:41 |
DocScrutinizer05 | >>traveling will spread newly breads all around<< not when strict quarantine and tests *get enforced* | 01:43 |
de-facto | tests cant catch all of the imports | 01:44 |
DocScrutinizer05 | huh? why not? | 01:44 |
DocScrutinizer05 | quarantine, one test at day4 and one at day10 | 01:44 |
de-facto | because there are false negatives | 01:44 |
de-facto | only one evasion is enough to import a new variant | 01:45 |
de-facto | i mean one false negative | 01:45 |
de-facto | and that is not too uncommon et all | 01:45 |
DocScrutinizer05 | no, you need TWO false negative PCR with this scheme | 01:45 |
de-facto | no problem with normal variants if prevalence is still high, but with new variants the perspective is like the very first import case | 01:45 |
de-facto | yeah does not really matter for that | 01:45 |
de-facto | its just not secure enough | 01:46 |
DocScrutinizer05 | plus an asymptomatic case | 01:46 |
DocScrutinizer05 | no doubt forbidding travel is more safe... NOT | 01:46 |
de-facto | yes of course its more safe | 01:47 |
DocScrutinizer05 | when you forbid travel, you get a thousand times more illegal tzravelers than you may find double false negative plus asymptomatic case | 01:48 |
de-facto | right now in Germany they have a slowly (delayed) updated list of high risk origins and require a test before traveling, well that can still be negative for a fresh infection of course | 01:48 |
de-facto | and leaving people out of quarantine at day 5 with a simple antigen test is INSANE imho | 01:48 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I'm not even mentioning this | 01:48 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Nearly 50 million COVID-19 vaccine doses distributed in U.S., almost 30 million administered - CDC → https://is.gd/FUPCxE | 01:49 |
DocScrutinizer05 | when you want to go tangential once I made a point, well... | 01:49 |
de-facto | having a whole country potential lockdown at risk from a single swab taken from a throat is just not proportional | 01:49 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I'm out | 01:50 |
de-facto | I 100% stay with this, passenger air travel should stop completely. | 01:50 |
DocScrutinizer05 | you don't need me to do monologues. I said TWO tests in quarantine | 01:51 |
de-facto | two tests are not nearly safe enough, not at all | 01:51 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Lebanon: +351 deaths (now 3031) since 5 hours ago — Netherlands: +4307 cases (now 979460), +71 deaths (now 13970) since 22 hours ago | 01:51 |
de-facto | there are cases that become positive again after two negative tests | 01:51 |
de-facto | there are cases that test positive for more than 14 days | 01:52 |
de-facto | there are always exceptions to the rule | 01:52 |
DocScrutinizer05 | [31 Jan 2021 00:36:47] <DocScrutinizer05> gosh,this negativism all the time... unless ultimately declaring "this is unacceptable!!" and demanding stuff that obviously can't get established or accomplished | 01:52 |
de-facto | it does not matter for the normal variants because then some sort of compromise can be made when incidence is high anyhow | 01:52 |
LjL | strict quarantine is not enough either because it can be broken in a variety of ways, and if you have people doing surveillance on the quarantined people in hotels or something, *those* people can get infected, like in New Zealand | 01:52 |
LjL | everything is about probabilities in this, you can't make it into a black or white situation | 01:52 |
de-facto | but not with import of new variants, then its like a "virgin" country with immunological naive population (well in the very worst thinkable case of total immune evasion, thankfully we have NOT seen that yet) | 01:53 |
LjL | i think DocScrutinizer05's point that when you shut down *all* legal ways to travel, then there will be more illegal ways employed, without any testing or any quarantine at all then, is a valid point. risks and balances, and always being mindful of what the unintended consequences of an action can be | 01:55 |
de-facto | imho the only way is 1) restrict mobility of new emerging variants very very strictly (hence no traveling) 2) bring incidence down globally at the same time by NPIs while collecting sequences all over the world and ramping up vaccine production 3) vaccinate everyone with a polyclonal vaccine that integrated all the newest variants with the maximum possible vaccination rate synchronously | 01:55 |
LjL | you've been saying these things for days. we can parly agree, wholly agree, partly disagree... but we aren't the ones making these decisions anyway. doesn't mean you shouldn't say these things of course, but honestly you've been a bit on a loop lately :( | 01:56 |
de-facto | LjL, yes its a valid point that traveling might go underground if no legal way is there anymore, but with airplane passenger travel this can be controlled to quite some big extend | 01:56 |
LjL | yes, with air travel it's mostly controllable | 01:57 |
LjL | i can agree with you that flights should be stopped for now (i don't really agree with "forever", but let's save that for another day) | 01:58 |
de-facto | honestly my suspicion is that much of the spread of the new variants happened on Christmas, many did fly from overseas to their parents home to spend holidays with them | 02:00 |
de-facto | (i know several such cases in my social bubble, yet none of them were tested positive, still they thought their traveling for Christmas could not be postponed to next year or such) | 02:01 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: China gene firm providing worldwide COVID tests worked with Chinese military → https://is.gd/EfEaVz | 02:01 |
dzho | it might just be apophenia but it sure looks to me like we have peaks after halloween, after Thanksgiving, after Christmas | 02:01 |
de-facto | its also how they suspect that the new variants arrived in Portugal | 02:02 |
DocScrutinizer05 | no, evidently much of the spread is from people who came from UK and they would simply have taken the train if you stop flights. Or they fly from london to Hungary and then drive by train from there to Germany | 02:02 |
de-facto | they had a very strict and successful lockdown before, brought incidence down and then opened again prior to Christmas, now they have all the lovely new variants circulating | 02:02 |
de-facto | (Portugal) | 02:03 |
de-facto | yeah thats why i think there need to be agreement on synchronized travel bans in all free travel zones such as EU and external borders need to be closed | 02:04 |
de-facto | of course it does not make sense to ban airtravel in Germany if passengers could just land in a neighboring country and take the train from there | 02:05 |
de-facto | if there will be no synchronized strategy we will see closed borders in EU again | 02:06 |
LjL | the variant arose in the UK which just semi-fortuitously happens to be outside of Schengen. what if you have a variant in a Schengen country? it's not like Schengen is a magic bubble where viruses don't mutate | 02:06 |
de-facto | good point, Schengen might be just too big for a free travel zone indeed | 02:06 |
LjL | but then if you reduce it further, the issue that illegal travel will happen via land borders arises again, you can forget about air travel bans being effective on their own | 02:08 |
LjL | and we functionally have no border posts at many Schengen borders (and i would have hoped we'd never get them again) | 02:08 |
de-facto | as long as incidence is high and viral replication can now potentially take place under selective immune pressure new variants will occur, so in every such free travel zone incidence would have to be brought down synchronously | 02:08 |
DocScrutinizer05 | "haette haette fahradkette" as some german politician says. You won't establish worldwide, not even EU wide synchroniized measures of _any_ kind. If one thing became obvious during last 12 months then this | 02:10 |
de-facto | thats why i think incidence should be brought down by NPIs not by vaccinations, because NPIs unspecifically target transmission paths that are the same even if spread dynamics changed due to new properties | 02:11 |
de-facto | i think it is possible to successfully fight SARS-CoV-2, if we dont even try we will stay in this state forever | 02:12 |
LjL | DocScrutinizer05, well on the other hand *something* has to change. we can't stay in this state until 2030 or whenever it is that the vaccination is projected to be completed at this pace | 02:14 |
LjL | we can't because the virus will definitely mutate many times, and we can't because you can't keep everyone "NPI"'d for years without everyone going insane | 02:14 |
de-facto | and if we allow holiday airtraveling it means that we dont really try to do all we could think of in terms of fighting COVID | 02:14 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I'd be happy to stay in exactly this state which is: incindeces go down 25% per week. Wait no, I'd insist in spring coming in three months the latest | 02:15 |
de-facto | yes wrestling it down via NPIs, but some federal states in Germany already stay at R~1 again, so for what reason? (afaik the over all national R decline is due to the very high incidence states like Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, Thuringa etc) | 02:17 |
de-facto | it very well could be that it will get much more difficult now with the N501Y already imported multiple times | 02:17 |
DocScrutinizer05 | so what's changing is seasons and number of incidences. I hope for both moving faster but if it keeps moving at exactly this speed it will all be fine unless we catch one of those damn VOC | 02:17 |
LjL | we've already "caught" the VOCs | 02:18 |
LjL | they simply aren't all that prevalent yet | 02:18 |
de-facto | and that is not the worst possible variant on the horizon, i really hope we wont see soon a E484K all over the country, | 02:18 |
LjL | (except in Portugal and possibly other places) | 02:18 |
LjL | can you really believe that they won't spread when they are already all over our countries, even if in smaller numbers? | 02:18 |
LjL | we can delay it, maybe | 02:19 |
de-facto | well maybe now would be better than in two months because it would mean that vaccines could be adjusted to include E484K then | 02:19 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I simply am fed up with "waaah we must stop flights forever!! nevermind the van drivers bringing vax and voc from UK, they don't fly" | 02:20 |
de-facto | and tbh i am not so optimistic about E484K if it already appears on nextstrain it must have spread for quite some while from the initial imports | 02:20 |
de-facto | well then the van drivers should change on the border and their working place decontaminated | 02:21 |
de-facto | whatever is necessary to contain he spread | 02:21 |
LjL | DocScrutinizer05, yes i understand that you are. that's why i told de-facto that he's going a bit in a loop lately. he may be right, he may be wrong, but we don't make these policies anyway so just hearing this all the time doesn't help. but i'm sure you understand it's frustrating to feel like you know how to improve the situation but you can't actually make someone who matters listen to it | 02:21 |
de-facto | those are all details, the only thing that matters is to restrict the mobility of the variants | 02:21 |
DocScrutinizer05 | bring down incidences, establish proper quarantine (enforced, with tests), and hope for spring. When we bring down incidences fast enough, we got chances to not only spot and contain but even sequence every single cluster | 02:22 |
de-facto | yes | 02:22 |
LjL | i'm afraid that when incidence goes down, governments (at least mine, assuming i still have one) will go "oh, it's gone! yay! let's do nothing now for a while" again, like last summer :\ | 02:23 |
de-facto | and also restrict mobility as much as possible (at least for long traveling distances) | 02:23 |
LjL | and incidentally no, we still have no clear government ahead | 02:23 |
de-facto | yes they are making already the people looking forward when talking about "reopening and back to normal" for reaching their incidence goal of weekly 50/100k | 02:24 |
de-facto | then in the very *best* case it will stabilize at that level, just breading new variants a bit slower | 02:24 |
de-facto | hence imho our goal needs to be zero cases (yes i know it sounds very hard, but it is the *only* sane goal) | 02:25 |
de-facto | those countries that stayed with that goal right from begin are the only ones with success | 02:26 |
de-facto | the good thing is that it gets easier and easier to bring down incidence once new infections become rarer | 02:28 |
de-facto | because then much more resources can be invested into tracing down clusters and doing super strict localized containment etc | 02:29 |
ubLIX[m] | i really wanted that to be the way, de-facto | 02:31 |
ubLIX[m] | but.. planet earth.. disparate nations, populations.. | 02:32 |
DocScrutinizer05 | now on that last posts since my last post I can agree completely, alas all of them. LjL not only your government | 02:32 |
ubLIX[m] | not forbidden by the laws of physics doesn't imply not forbidden by the laws of human behaviour | 02:33 |
de-facto | ubLIX[m], yes i cant say i disagree, yet i still think we need to think about the best way to fight it down and do so with a globally synchronized strategy | 02:36 |
de-facto | its not like its hopeless or such, many countries demonstrated they have found their way to stay ontop of it | 02:37 |
DocScrutinizer05 | like we contained nukes and ended all wars? | 02:37 |
ubLIX[m] | between us and global synchronisation lies a speciation event | 02:37 |
DocScrutinizer05 | oh wait, we already did such global coordinated effort: global warming | 02:38 |
ubLIX[m] | ever evolving vaccine tech getting us to the point that the illness is mild or therapeutically manageable seem like the probable path to me right now | 02:39 |
de-facto | but it would have to be with global synchronized strategic sharing of resources such as medications, personal protection equipment and vaccinations of course | 02:39 |
de-facto | we need massive increase in vaccine production rates and share them with everyone for free (at least with the ones that cant afford to pay for it) | 02:41 |
de-facto | how else could we ever hope for synchronized vaccinations for the current VOCs in countries where people struggle to pay for their food or such | 02:41 |
DocScrutinizer05 | [28 Jan 2021 12:48:22] <DocScrutinizer05> what I didn't hear at all yet: how many of the 2nd infections actually develop severe and possibly lethal symptoms. Maybe we must live with covid returning each year like flu, but when you're either vaccinated or suffered a covid episode already, you're maybe not very prone to severe harm | 02:43 |
de-facto | i have a bit of a bad feeling about us fighting about who gets the first shots when of an already rolling vaccination campaign when there are countries that did not see any vaccination imports | 02:43 |
ubLIX[m] | the anarchic or somewhat civilised market of resource distribution is a far cry more realistic than globally synchronised lock down and dovetailing of multilayered NPI | 02:44 |
de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, obviously in Manaus the hospitals are overfull again, so its not like most of them would be mild or such, they ran out of oxygen and probably dont give that to people that would not require it | 02:44 |
de-facto | some even claim the VOC make more severe infections (reinfections?), but i guess we need more data on that | 02:44 |
DocScrutinizer05 | it's not like in Manaus everybody been vaccinated | 02:44 |
de-facto | no but the majority may have even had recovered from a real infection, hence their immune system should know the virus even better than from vaccination | 02:45 |
DocScrutinizer05 | no, vaccination is evidently and proven-fact way more effective than infection | 02:46 |
de-facto | yes vaccination may induce higher antibody levels and maybe also targeted only on the S-protein, that may be an advantage in some circumstances | 02:46 |
de-facto | but if they see reduced efficiency for vaccinations e.g. to 60% in SA from normally 90% or such it is concerning (was it Novavax data or such?) | 02:47 |
de-facto | yeah https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3 | 02:49 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: UK says it expects no vaccine interruption from EU; Brussels admits Irish 'blunder' → https://is.gd/vKAkK4 | 02:50 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: WHO investigators meet Wuhan hospital leaders on day two of Covid-19 mission – but afternoon will be spent ‘visiting museums’ → https://is.gd/j7QSLn | 03:01 |
LjL | "day two" | 03:10 |
LjL | is this even real | 03:10 |
LjL | de-facto, yeah too bad we haven't actually bought any Novavax | 03:10 |
Brainstorm | New from Derek Lowe: @Dereklowe: More details (good ones) on the J&J vaccine: → https://is.gd/E7sHgY | 03:14 |
de-facto | all fatalities in the placebo group | 03:24 |
LjL | yeah, although the vaccine group had some "severe" cases, but which apparently did not require hospitalizations | 03:25 |
LjL | comments sound perplexed on that - those "severe" cases are defined as oxygen going below a threshold, and it's strange those people weren't hospitalized | 03:26 |
LjL | anyway i guess it's good news | 03:26 |
LjL | a bit paradoxically, when a vaccine doesn't have a *great* efficacy rate (so, say 60% instead of 95%) you can get more reliable data on severe cases among the vaccinated | 03:26 |
LjL | if only 5 people in the verum group got COVID, you really cannot say anything reliable on severe cases | 03:26 |
LjL | but if 50 people did, then you can | 03:26 |
de-facto | its always somewhere between perfect and useless, so as long as its leaning towards helping we need to find a way to make use of it, and imho most of the vaccines we have seen so far looked extremely good | 03:27 |
LjL | i disagree with "extremely good", but i see your point | 03:28 |
LjL | and considering the slow pace at which they're being produced, yeah, i don't feel great saying it, but the more the merrier, even if they aren't super-effective | 03:28 |
LjL | but there could be a bad psychological effect too: people who get the vaccine *will*, to some extent, behave as if they're immune. even if you tell them not to. | 03:29 |
LjL | if a vaccine has 95% efficacy rate, it's not a big deal. they pretty much can do that and it will be okay | 03:29 |
de-facto | what was the avg efficiency of the flu vaccine? like 40%-60% or such | 03:29 |
LjL | if it has 60% efficacy rate, not so much | 03:29 |
LjL | who cares about the flu vaccine, this is not the flu, it has different characteristics and very different risks | 03:30 |
de-facto | yes indeed | 03:30 |
de-facto | just saying the results we have seen are not so bad at all | 03:30 |
LjL | fair enough | 03:30 |
LjL | i just think... when we have a 95% efficacy... shouldn't we find ways to concentrate productions of *that* vaccine? instead of messing around with ones that are 60%? | 03:31 |
LjL | just because every country's big pharma company wants to show off, is not a good reason to use vaccines that are "good" but "not as good" | 03:32 |
de-facto | yeah well i cant disagree but we also need to have multiple vectors against it and also multiple delivery platforms etc | 03:33 |
de-facto | multiple templates and so on | 03:33 |
de-facto | diversity against diversity so to say | 03:33 |
de-facto | and also have some solution that fits every scenario even when its just "trival" problems such as delivery and supply chain | 03:34 |
de-facto | i think its essential to make the best out of everything we have | 03:34 |
de-facto | we just cant afford to abandon any approach since they are not mutually exclusive | 03:34 |
LjL | no, but like, Sanofi saying they will help produce Pfizer - we can debate about why it takes until August, but i want to see more of that sort of cooperation | 03:36 |
de-facto | yes i fully agree | 03:38 |
de-facto | also other branches of industry should be investigated if they could help | 03:38 |
de-facto | for example the chemical industry, how far can they go into biochemical production etc | 03:38 |
de-facto | some of them already partnered with some vaccine producers that are still in the process of studies and approval | 03:39 |
dTal | LjL, Pfizer is logistically difficult to distribute, it's not just about production | 03:50 |
dTal | and also there's tremendous value in not putting all your eggs in a single basket, as it were | 03:50 |
Brainstorm | New from NPR: EU Reverses Move To Restrict Export Of COVID-19 Vaccines To Northern Ireland: The EU backtracked after a move to restrict the movement of vaccines between Ireland and Northern Ireland drew condemnation. → https://is.gd/CDd7j9 | 03:51 |
dTal | especially on the basis of trial data which certainly doesn't tell the wohle story in real-world conditions | 03:51 |
dTal | and also when the vaccines are all brand new and may yet present unforeseen problems | 03:51 |
dTal | for example I've recently read that the Pfizer vaccine occasionally provokes an allergic reaction | 03:52 |
de-facto | yeah maybe people develop antibodies against PEG in the BioNTech/Pfizer or Moderna vaccines just as they develop immunity against the viral delivery vector in the ones from AstraZeneca, Janssen, Sputnik, you name it... | 03:57 |
de-facto | i think its very important to have diversity | 03:58 |
LjL | dTal, the allergic reaction is very occasional (Moderna causes it too, but even less often), we're talking less than 10 anaphylaxis episodes every million vaccines, which was confirmed in Israel. Israel also confirmed an efficacy of around 92% (which is within Pfizer's confidence interval) | 04:00 |
LjL | that said, i find it inexcusable that severely allergic people were *excluded* from the trials, and yet, countries vaccinated them anyway | 04:01 |
de-facto | afaik the adverse reactions increased with the booster shot | 04:02 |
de-facto | in the mRNA vaccines | 04:02 |
LjL | so it seems | 04:03 |
LjL | although i bet anaphylaxis happened right away, when it did happen | 04:03 |
de-facto | yeah i am talking about generic effects from using a vaccine platform | 04:04 |
de-facto | if multiple platforms are available the choice for a different one each time may mitigate those | 04:04 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Lessons in antiviral immunity (81 votes) | https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6528/464.full | https://redd.it/l8v4ca | 04:06 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: 17β‐estradiol reduces SARS‐CoV‐2 infection in vitro (89 votes) | https://physoc.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.14814/phy2.14707 | https://redd.it/l8ym4g | 05:25 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: EU and UK 'reset' relations after NI vaccine row: Ministers said they are confident that the EU will not block vaccines entering the UK. → https://is.gd/SE5k5u | 05:28 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Macron defends decision not to order third lockdown as third wave spreads → https://is.gd/LL9PMV | 05:52 |
de-facto | btw about those very rare anaphylactic reactions, they seem to be IgG mediated (not lgE like a real allergy), so their correlation is not necessarily and btw if vaccination is done in a medical center they can be treated immediately, i think they did everything perfectly correct | 06:14 |
de-facto | afaik one of the suspected mechanisms is that those that react that way may have developed antibodies (IgG) against some of those lipid components, first suspect would be PEG (that is in many cosmetics for exterior use, but maybe some got internal contact with it for some reason hence developed antibodies against it) | 06:16 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: After 10 months with zero community transmission, a quarantine hotel worker tests positive for COVID in Western Australia → https://is.gd/YWOJzD | 06:16 |
de-facto | at least that was the stand of the information last time i checked (admittedly quite some time ago) | 06:16 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +2717 cases (now 707837), +48 deaths (now 21066) since a day ago | 06:24 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: WHO teams visits Wuhan food market in search of virus clues → https://is.gd/3J899U | 06:40 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: New Study By Dr. Steven Quay Concludes that SARS-CoV-2 Came from a Laboratory → https://is.gd/1tVt71 | 07:05 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Iran says its COVID-19 vaccine effective against UK virus variant → https://is.gd/gYrMxx | 07:29 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Lima, Peru: +9239 cases (now 507596), +213 deaths (now 17927) since 2 days ago — Junin, Peru: +1085 cases (now 34917), +34 deaths (now 1145) since 2 days ago — Callao, Peru: +910 cases (now 48365), +33 deaths (now 2141) since 2 days ago — Pasco, Peru: +197 cases (now 7786), +5 deaths (now 185) since 2 days ago | 07:51 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Parts of WA including Perth go into snap lockdown after quarantine hotel security guard infected → https://is.gd/Ol9nxW | 08:18 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Faced With a Vaccine Emergency, the EU Made an Enemy of Everyone → https://is.gd/cj8zDL | 08:55 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | January 31, 2021: The WHO pages contain up-to-date and global information. Please refer to our Wiki for additional information. → https://is.gd/m1EB0o | 09:07 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Just 0.04% of Israelis caught COVID-19 after two shots of Pfizer vaccine → https://is.gd/Zsg5Wl | 09:55 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Bolsonaro says his government has no responsibility to provide oxygen to states where people are dying from Covid due to lack of oxygen. → https://is.gd/u4AIuQ | 10:32 |
Brainstorm | Updates for El Salvador: +977 cases (now 54966), +9 deaths (now 1623) since 22 hours ago | 10:38 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): I'm fed up.: I'm fed up of nothing being open and being restricted to local area. I'm fed up of a simple trip to the shops being emotionally exhausting. I'm fed up of not seeing people at work. I'm fed up about not seeing family. → https://is.gd/bbCb7U | 11:22 |
g2` | I posted here over a week ago | 11:50 |
g2` | Thursday I think | 11:50 |
g2` | My sense of smell has returned :) | 11:50 |
genera | yay | 11:50 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Israel to give 5,000 doses of COVID-19 vaccine to the Palestinians to immunize front-line medical workers → https://is.gd/dp13gZ | 11:59 |
Arsanerit | so generous | 12:09 |
DocScrutinizer05 | https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/l951yr/after_10_months_with_zero_community_transmission/glgq4c2/ | 12:35 |
darsie | Are 5000 doses 5000 or 2500 immunizations? | 12:55 |
DocScrutinizer05 | the latter I guess | 12:56 |
darsie | Are the first and second dose the same? | 12:56 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Australia records 14 consecutive days of 0 locally acquired coronavirus cases for the first time since February 2020 (10139 votes) | https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-31/coronavirus-australia-live-news-covid-sa-border-open-with-sydney/13106264#live-blog-post-1197762000 | https://redd.it/l93jc4 | 12:57 |
Brainstorm | New from Ars Technica: Policy: Why kids matter in the quest to stamp out COVID-19 → https://is.gd/cglOQg | 13:00 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Single virus case sends Australia's Perth into snap lockdown: The Australian city of Perth will begin a snap five-day lockdown after a security guard at a quarantine hotel tested positive for COVID-19, authorities announced Sunday. → https://is.gd/XLcrvC | 13:12 |
DocScrutinizer05 | For Americans it seems like freedom is kinda that thing where you say "I'm going to swing my arms like this and if you get hit it's your own fault". https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/l951yr/after_10_months_with_zero_community_transmission/glgq4c2/ | 13:23 |
DocScrutinizer05 | ^^^ quote | 13:24 |
DocScrutinizer05 | darsie: yes, for BNT it's 30/30 iirc | 13:25 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +9 deaths (now 9378) since 19 hours ago | 15:23 |
zutt | %cases sweden | 15:46 |
Brainstorm | zutt: In Sweden, there have been 566957 confirmed cases (5.5% of the population) and 11591 deaths (2.0% of cases) as of 2 days ago. 5.1 million tests were performed (11.1% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Sweden for time series data. | 15:46 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +10405 cases (now 2.2 million) since 22 hours ago | 15:54 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Brazilian government 'deliberately allowed Covid to spread' → https://is.gd/T91CLp | 15:57 |
rpifan_ | welcome to trump landia | 16:14 |
rpifan_ | wow we are still getting 10k cases per day? | 16:14 |
de-facto[m] | Yes containment barely achieves R = 0.9X in many federal states not even that, imho its not sufficient | 16:25 |
de-facto[m] | For Germany | 16:26 |
de-facto[m] | Half life t = t_serial ln(1/2) / ln(R) = 5.2 ln(0.5) / ln(0.9) = 34.2 days | 16:34 |
Brainstorm | New from Baric Lab: @Baric_Lab: Big ups to this crew for a great collaboration with translation to #COVID19. We need better #therapeutics for #SARSCoV2 → https://is.gd/nDN0vq | 16:35 |
de-facto[m] | So over a month to achieve half the daily new infections in Germany | 16:35 |
DocScrutinizer05 | the numbers don't support that? 2021/01/127davg:20019 -> 2021/01/29 7davg:10795 | 16:42 |
DocScrutinizer05 | so we're at a ~R_eff(4d)~=0.9 | 16:43 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Guernsey: +46 cases (now 539) since 20 hours ago | 16:44 |
DocScrutinizer05 | an yes, sorry. Those were yesterday's numbers, still not very stable for last 4 days and particularly 29th. Still the curve fits | 16:49 |
DocScrutinizer05 | see [29 Jan 2021 14:58:36] <DocScrutinizer05> /nick nostradamus; /msg Germany will hit 50/100k7d in 3 weeks. Around that time shit will hit the fan regarding reverting of NPI like curfew and home office and SCHOOLS. If Germany acts like usual, this won't have effect until 2 more weeks later and in 6 weeks (with one week inertia) the incidences will reach 25/100k7d. UNLESS - most likely - the VOC beast eats us until then | 16:50 |
DocScrutinizer05 | we had a massive excursion of R_eff(now/-4d) from 01-06 until 01-12 which sipposedly was recovery from reporting flaws during holidays, since then we're pretty much nailed down to R_eff=~0.9 | 17:02 |
DocScrutinizer05 | for serial length 4d | 17:02 |
DocScrutinizer05 | http://reisenweber.net/et_al/covid/covid19_statistics.htm | 17:03 |
rpifan | de-facto[m], you think we are gonna go on lockdown into summer? | 17:03 |
DocScrutinizer05 | blue line = avg7d of incidences (left Y), green = R_eff serial4 based on avg7d | 17:04 |
DocScrutinizer05 | (right Y scale) | 17:05 |
DocScrutinizer05 | damn sure I had hoped we see at least *some* effect on R_eff from latest "tightening" of NPI, since even a halftimeof 3 weeks is still way too long and a 4d-based R_eff=0.9 much too high to defeat the B1.1.7 monster. We need an R_eff<0.7 for this | 17:15 |
DocScrutinizer05 | and R_eff doesn't change :-( So THAT is our basic immediate problem - our R_eff is too high to defeat VOC and it seems it's not coming down any time soon | 17:17 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I *hope* R_eff in total will go down a lot once we're at 25/100k7d so the authorities can track&contain&sequence every single cluster again | 17:18 |
DocScrutinizer05 | and that we're not eaten by the monster before we get there | 17:19 |
DocScrutinizer05 | so instead of focusing on fubar air travel I rather focus on fubar home office and supermarkets and schools, since those are the dials we may turn (but seems we don't) to bring down R_eff *now* and *massively* | 17:22 |
Brainstorm | New from NPR: 10 Senate Republicans Plan To Detail Slimmed-Down COVID-19 Counteroffer: The senators are asking to work with President Biden on a coronavirus relief package they believe could be approved "quickly by Congress with bipartisan support." → https://is.gd/SDgKUX | 17:25 |
de-facto | 1st Jan 18k cases -> 29th Jan ~11k, hence 11k/18k = 0.61 hence R = 0,61^(5,2÷29) = 0.92 hence exactly what i said above | 17:26 |
de-facto | i take a serial interval of t_serial = 5.2 days | 17:27 |
DocScrutinizer05 | 1st jan is bogus and you know that | 17:27 |
DocScrutinizer05 | and you know in Germany everybody is doing serial interval = 4d according to RKI | 17:28 |
de-facto | take any other interval its the same | 17:28 |
DocScrutinizer05 | *sigh* just look at my cited dates above. can you do the math? | 17:28 |
de-facto | i do my math | 17:29 |
DocScrutinizer05 | look at http://reisenweber.net/et_al/covid/covid19_statistics.htm if in doubt | 17:29 |
de-facto | i dont have any doubts about what i said, i stay with every claim | 17:29 |
DocScrutinizer05 | well *your* math just doesn't fit the official numbers | 17:29 |
de-facto | it fits them exactly | 17:30 |
DocScrutinizer05 | aha | 17:30 |
de-facto | https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Jan_2021/2021-01-31-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile | 17:32 |
DocScrutinizer05 | so what? you still take 4.2 instead the 4 they use | 17:33 |
DocScrutinizer05 | just to start with | 17:33 |
DocScrutinizer05 | 5.2 even | 17:33 |
de-facto | yes because its more correct | 17:35 |
de-facto | https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Projekte_RKI/Nowcasting.html | 17:35 |
DocScrutinizer05 | *sigh* | 17:35 |
DocScrutinizer05 | >>they are reporting they earn 400€ a week, but I take that as 400€/month as that's the more common way to report income here<< | 17:36 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Thousands protest in Vienna as far-right march on COVID measures banned → https://is.gd/GMMQXJ | 17:38 |
Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +21088 cases (now 3.8 million), +587 deaths (now 106158) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +3861 cases (now 981767), +56 deaths (now 14022) since 19 hours ago | 17:46 |
de-facto | http://metrics.covid19-analysis.org/ | 17:54 |
de-facto | shows R based in 5.2 days serial time worldwide | 17:55 |
de-facto | btw damn whats going in the Thailand/Vietnam region there | 17:55 |
de-facto | i thought they had it under control for so long | 17:55 |
DocScrutinizer05 | again: based on RKI official numbers, 7d average on 2021/01/12 was 20019 (yesterday's numbers), a 17 days later on 2021/01/ it was 10795 (again yesterdays numbers). Taking into account numbers for last 4 days will increase a little (today it's 11413 not 10795) we can safely assume a half time of 3 weeks. And that's same result for any interval within 01-12 till now | 17:57 |
DocScrutinizer05 | both based on avg7d as well as foldedphase | 17:58 |
DocScrutinizer05 | as well as TV reported "daily new reported, compared to last week's value" which is constantly around -20% per week | 17:59 |
de-facto | i think we can agree that its way too long half life, if we multiply R by 130%-150% we would be in exponential growth | 18:00 |
DocScrutinizer05 | yourmath won't turn taht into 34 days | 18:00 |
de-facto | (to take into account the B.1.1.7 spread) | 18:00 |
DocScrutinizer05 | yes, absolutely | 18:01 |
DocScrutinizer05 | it will explode right into our face as soon as B1.1.7 takes pace | 18:01 |
DocScrutinizer05 | we need an R_eff (my interpretation of it) of <0.7 and any imported variant will naturally extinguish | 18:02 |
DocScrutinizer05 | in your metrics that would be 0.7^(4/5.2) if my math doesn't fail on me temporarily | 18:04 |
de-facto[m] | So lockdown us insufficient to contain the spread of newly imported variants right now | 18:04 |
DocScrutinizer05 | meh, 5.2/4 | 18:05 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +11249 cases (now 2.6 million), +237 deaths (now 88516) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +4387 cases (now 777897), +128 deaths (now 19978) since 23 hours ago | 18:05 |
DocScrutinizer05 | >>lockdown us insufficient to contain the spread of newly<< yes, absolutely | 18:05 |
de-facto[m] | The ones in contry will exponentially reproduce right now | 18:05 |
DocScrutinizer05 | yes | 18:06 |
DocScrutinizer05 | and we already _do_ have them, definitely | 18:06 |
de-facto[m] | more efficiently one can not teplace the old variant dying out exponentially while the new variant increases expinentially | 18:07 |
DocScrutinizer05 | and note please how *finding* them won't change a jota in the situation | 18:07 |
LjL | And here we're *relaxing* the lockdown, yay! Thanks to our mathematical model that no one understand and that shouldn't really matter anyway when you have known new factors such as the variants, which the model doesn't consider | 18:08 |
DocScrutinizer05 | me? | 18:08 |
DocScrutinizer05 | oh, "our" nor "your" | 18:08 |
LjL | Yes | 18:09 |
DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto[m]: yes, exactly | 18:10 |
DocScrutinizer05 | closing frontiers and flights does help a little to not seed *more* of them, but we already *have* them and they are already about to grow exponentially | 18:11 |
DocScrutinizer05 | we just didn't see them yet. So we are all like "wjere is the cat? search Fido SEARCH! where is the nasty cat?!" while not even pondering how that knowledge would leave us any wiser | 18:12 |
DocScrutinizer05 | and meanwhile lockdown lingers on in week ForgotTocount with an R_eff of 0.9 to 1 and everybody arguing about tangential or even sabotage topics, while we URGENTLY NEED R_eff <<0.7 | 18:17 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Spain set to pilot four-day week as response to coronavirus pandemic → https://is.gd/0kp8RY | 18:17 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Israel Health Ministry: "More people died in two weeks of peace with Dubai than in 70 years of war with them", referring to dozens of covid cases onboard flights returning from Dubai to Tel Aviv → https://is.gd/dW47Qx | 18:29 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Evidence for SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein in the Urine of COVID-19 patients (82 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250637v1 | https://redd.it/l9edhi | 18:29 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Macron gambles by saying 'non' to lockdown: French President Emmanuel Macron has gambled by not imposing a third national lockdown to contain COVID-19—against expectations and the advice of senior scientific advisers. → https://is.gd/ocfZku | 18:42 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Sri Lanka: +864 cases (now 64157) since 18 hours ago | 18:48 |
de-facto | well yeah the UK variant definitely is already spread all over EU, yet i am sure we will see many more variants emerging (and if they do emerge they have some property for which we definitely dont want to have them), so the import of those should be prevented by restricting international travel | 18:51 |
DocScrutinizer05 | if we assume we got a "humble" 10 of B.1.1.7(undetected) cases toady, then in 3 weeks when we're supposed to hit 5000/d we get a 10/d new B.1.1.7. In 6 weeks when we're supposed to reach 2500/d we get 40/d of the new variant. (not as bad as I thought, and disclaimer again "if my math doesn't fail on me"). In 9 weeks - if nothing changes - we're at 1300/d with a 130/d VOC | 18:52 |
de-facto | https://covariants.org/per-country | 18:52 |
de-facto | .title | 18:52 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From covariants.org: CoVariants | 18:52 |
de-facto | beware those are number of sequences, not cases | 18:53 |
DocScrutinizer05 | now assume we got 100 today, numbers change accordingly | 18:54 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Captain Sir Tom Moore in hospital with Covid 19 → https://is.gd/P6RHXK | 18:54 |
DocScrutinizer05 | we'd be at 2500 in 9 weeks, with half of them being the monster | 18:55 |
rpifan | apparently portugal is fucked | 19:04 |
DocScrutinizer05 | and I think this shows a) we of course want to keep VOC out b) we need R_eff <0.7 *now* c) to fight VOC by vaccination is a delusion | 19:06 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I'm particularly pissed about c) and how politicians constantly claim the opposite | 19:07 |
DocScrutinizer05 | so everybody goes "we need more vaccine drug, NOW!" | 19:08 |
rahmend[m] | what's voc? | 19:09 |
rahmend[m] | this, Variant of Concern 202012/01? | 19:09 |
DocScrutinizer05 | absolute self-deceit, no matter what of all faintly possible futures arrives regarding vaccination, it simply won't help us out during next 3 months | 19:09 |
DocScrutinizer05 | yes, this and others rahmend[m] | 19:10 |
DocScrutinizer05 | the more infectious variants | 19:10 |
Arsanerit | what monster? | 19:11 |
DocScrutinizer05 | the same | 19:12 |
DocScrutinizer05 | the more infectious variants | 19:12 |
rahmend[m] | any new ideas on why korea/japan/new zealand/etc are doing so well atm? They all have the new variant | 19:14 |
Arsanerit | islands | 19:15 |
rahmend[m] | uk is an island | 19:15 |
Arsanerit | island + competent rule | 19:18 |
DocScrutinizer05 | vaccination only makes sense *IF* we could vaccinate, like, 50% within 8 weeks. Clearly delusional | 19:19 |
Arsanerit | South Korea is not geographically an island but for practical purposes it is. | 19:19 |
Arsanerit | DocScrutinizer05: what do you propose? | 19:19 |
DocScrutinizer05 | get R_eff down to <0.7 NOW | 19:20 |
rahmend[m] | <Arsanerit "island + competent rule"> ah yes | 19:20 |
DocScrutinizer05 | whatever it takes. I'd start at home office and schools | 19:20 |
Arsanerit | DocScrutinizer05: Aren't we doing home office and home schools already? | 19:21 |
rahmend[m] | are public use of temperature guns helpful in like restaurants at the front door? | 19:21 |
DocScrutinizer05 | HAH! | 19:21 |
DocScrutinizer05 | last I checked we were at 15% honme office. And schools, don't get me started | 19:21 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid-19: Record day for UK vaccinations as total nears 9m: Almost 600,000 people received their first Covid jab on Saturday, government figures show. → https://is.gd/KAmLhR | 19:22 |
rpifan | american news is really ridiculous | 19:22 |
DocScrutinizer05 | we need a "schools closed. PERIOD. office closed. PERIOD. if you want you may arrange home office, or do holiday" | 19:22 |
Arsanerit | DocScrutinizer05: that would implies airports closed, because weather forecasters can't all work from home and if weather service closes, airports aren't allowed to remain open | 19:23 |
LjL | I'd bring up air traffic control but there have been actual examples of them working from home... | 19:24 |
DocScrutinizer05 | of course there are system critical positions which need allowance in writing to continue | 19:24 |
DocScrutinizer05 | but FIFTEEN PERCENT? c'mon that's a pathetic joke, no lockdown | 19:25 |
Arsanerit | we're at about 75% home office in my workplace | 19:26 |
Arsanerit | (which is the German weather service) | 19:26 |
LjL | If you look back at Italy's initial lockdown which did mandate that only essential jobs could continue in person, you'd find that jobs deemed essential were quite a lot, though, and when you think about it they really are. Probably not 85% though | 19:26 |
Arsanerit | German industry argues (maybe not entirely unreasonably) that such a lockdown should be EU-wide, because if you do it only in Germany, international customers may move to suppliers in other EU countries and not come back after. | 19:27 |
LjL | Arsanerit, it's very possible that you're a good example among many other bad examples. I do think that unless working from home is mandated, in many cases it just won't happen. My aunt got COVID because her workplace just straight out refused to let them work from home, and it WOULD have been possible | 19:28 |
LjL | Only realistic chance to see it EU-wide is after the variants have created a spike so big that we all agree it's nearly unstoppable, I'm afraid | 19:29 |
DocScrutinizer05 | Arsanerit: arguments by industry didn't make sense since day one of the pandemic | 19:30 |
LjL | Anyway Italy, France and Spain, AFAIK, have all had a lockdown like that during the first wave, and I guess it's very possible German industry benefited from it, so I wouldn't look at the economy so pettily | 19:30 |
DocScrutinizer05 | they may be right, just they are only in their little world, outside/beyond the limits of that little merchant world, they're moot | 19:30 |
Arsanerit | LjL: Apparently German federal government is itself doing well with work from home (I work for the German federal government), but regional and local governments are mostly doing poorly (although reportedly it varies a lot). | 19:31 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: WHO: Vaccine Hoarding Would Be A "Catastrophic Moral Failure" That Keeps "Pandemic Burning" → https://is.gd/mjiwEG | 19:35 |
LjL | Arsanerit: well, here, the public sector are the only ones who have a mandate for x% work from home. The private sector are just "encouraged". So the overall situation may be similar | 19:37 |
DocScrutinizer05 | to put it with de-facto's favorite phrase: it's just not acceptable that in this second - arguably more important and essential - lockdown, germany performs massively sub-par compared to the first ignorantly done one | 19:41 |
DocScrutinizer05 | we didn't learn, we got more stupid within 12 months | 19:41 |
DocScrutinizer05 | for reference: in first lockdown there were a few days where we actually reached R_eff<0.7 | 19:43 |
LjL | You were "lucky" during the first wave. I'm not sure if the level of stupidity has changed. | 19:43 |
DocScrutinizer05 | now we're not even close to that | 19:43 |
DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: yep, prolly | 19:43 |
Brainstorm | Updates for France: +226 deaths (now 75975) since 22 hours ago | 19:44 |
DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: then, iirc home office was at ~30% or more during first lockdown | 19:45 |
DocScrutinizer05 | now that's "not possible" | 19:45 |
LjL | Well, I don't know if it's not possible, but in theory it makes some sense that now the economy (meaning mainly people's ability to survive, not the corporation) couldn't stand it a *second* time. Every time there are more people below the poverty threshold here. | 19:47 |
DocScrutinizer05 | it seems however that those ~15% making the difference to first lockdown are not those poor ones but the employees of quite wealthy mid-tier companies that simply have bosses which are.. don't know, too lazy or not feeling comfortable with home office and the lack of "kick their asses" this provides | 19:53 |
LjL | Yeah, could well be | 19:54 |
DocScrutinizer05 | quote (paraphrased) >>but but... the servers.. it's they got... we don't... there isn't the server capacity. And the regulations which can't get fullfilled... it's just impossible<< | 19:55 |
DocScrutinizer05 | bastards | 19:56 |
DocScrutinizer05 | then lock down your damn office, jackass. Maybe use those 4 weeks full lockdown to build up the server capacities you knew you were missing, since fabruary 2020! | 19:59 |
DocScrutinizer05 | >>4 WEEKS HOLIDAYS!<< /me pushes the fire alarm | 20:00 |
LjL | so in Italy we're already seeing images of masses of people going back to get food and drinks, even though we've not even "re-opened" officially yet (but we will tomorrow) | 21:02 |
LjL | at the same time, commissioner Arcuri (which is the guy who has the most power in managing the epidemic right now, since we have no prime minister, and which personally i can't stand) is saying that we have to accept that we're going to have a MUCH lower number of vaccines than expected in the first trimester | 21:03 |
LjL | so how can we possibly be re-opening just based on an algorithm? | 21:03 |
LjL | the algorithm doesn't have the knowledge that variants are coming in it | 21:03 |
Brainstorm | New from NPR: Protesters Block COVID-19 Vaccination Site In LA: Dozens of protesters temporarily blocked the entrance to one of the nation's largest mass-vaccination sites. People in hundreds of cars, waiting in line for hours, had to wait even longer. → https://is.gd/NG0D47 | 21:08 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +3868 cases (now 981774) since 23 hours ago | 21:36 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): COVID-19 in RSA: submitted by /u/MirkoConte to r/CoronaVirus_ITALIA → https://is.gd/wyiqzB | 22:15 |
DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: I completely agree | 22:25 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: The UK reached record number of 598389 vaccination per day → https://is.gd/dkVNc2 | 22:27 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Cuba: +1012 cases (now 26686), +1 deaths (now 214) since a day ago | 22:32 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: UK vaccinates almost 600,000 people in single day for first time → https://is.gd/HYt6sD | 23:29 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: UK reaches record number of daily vaccinations - 598,389 received their first dose on Saturday (10159 votes) | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-55876866 | https://redd.it/l9fmlm | 23:37 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Britain to give Ireland priority in any sharing of Covid vaccines → https://is.gd/Jogv5h | 23:41 |
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