| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Thousands of ultra-Orthodox Israelis thronged a pair of funerals for two prominent rabbis in Jerusalem on Sunday, flouting the country’s ban on large public gatherings during the pandemic. → https://is.gd/cRXKLX | 00:16 |
|---|---|---|
| Brainstorm | Updates for Ghana: +2363 cases (now 67010), +18 deaths (now 416) since 22 hours ago | 00:30 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +3 deaths (now 9381) since 9 hours ago | 01:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid vaccine offered to all care homes in England: PM hails "milestone" in the race to vaccinate the most vulnerable, after a record day for UK jabs. → https://is.gd/vARHif | 01:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: 25% Indians now have antibodies against COVID-19, shows ICMR's latest serosurvey → https://is.gd/1WjGEf | 01:40 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +3959 cases (now 983419), +64 deaths (now 14034) since 23 hours ago | 01:45 |
| LjL | is ICMR's latest serosurvey flawed as the other serosurveys that showed extremelyhighproportionofantibodies%? ;( | 01:48 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Habitual use of vitamin D supplements and risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection: a prospective study in UK Biobank (83 votes) | https://academic.oup.com/ajcn/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ajcn/nqaa381/6123965 | https://redd.it/l9msk7 | 01:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: New Study By Dr. Steven Quay Concludes that SARS-CoV-2 Came from a Laboratory → https://is.gd/h4ljDq | 01:52 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: UK to support rest of the world to find COVID-19 virus variants (84 votes) | https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-to-support-rest-of-the-world-to-find-covid-19-virus-variants | https://redd.it/l9ku4t | 02:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): China_Flu: Suspected COVID-19 patient zero still missing after year-long search → https://is.gd/d23js6 | 03:04 |
| LazySundayDreams | %cases Czechia | 03:06 |
| Brainstorm | LazySundayDreams: In Czechia, there have been 984774 confirmed cases (9.2% of the population) and 16308 deaths (1.7% of cases) as of 17 hours ago. 6.2 million tests were performed (16.0% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.0% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 1.8% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Czechia for time series data. | 03:06 |
| pigzuu | https://twitter.com/Cleavon_MD/status/1355983480471994370 | 03:30 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | gosh, the last 4 "news" by Brainstorm are all... :-/ | 04:02 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>vaccine offered to all care homes in England<< hmmmk, >>25% Indians now have antibodies<< LjL probably yes, >>vitamin D << yet another commercial? >>SARS-CoV-2 Came from a Laboratory<< finally now? >>UK to support rest of the world<< ohmy | 04:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Israel extends lockdown, sees delay in COVID-19 turnaround → https://is.gd/AxII4n | 04:30 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +14426 cases (now 3.2 million), +146 deaths (now 76080) since 20 hours ago — Netherlands: +2783 cases (now 984344), +29 deaths (now 14043) since 20 hours ago — Antigua and Barb.: +16 cases (now 234) since a day ago — United Kingdom: +15841 cases (now 3.8 million) since 20 hours ago | 04:32 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>worldnews: Thousands of ultra-Orthodox Israelis thronged a pair of funerals for two prominent rabbis in Jerusalem on Sunday, flouting the country’s ban<< + >>World: Israel extends lockdown, sees delay in COVID-19 turnaround<< MHM | 04:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Thanks to Pandemic, China could overtake the U.S. as the world's largest economy earlier than expected -- The latest GDP reports show that of the U.S. fell by 2.3% in 2020, while China’s grew by 2.3% → https://is.gd/qW659f | 05:55 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +2316 cases (now 710153), +26 deaths (now 21092) since 23 hours ago | 06:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Republicans press Biden to scale back $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief plan → https://is.gd/ZH04Qx | 06:44 |
| Brainstorm | New preprint: Impact of age, gender, ethnicity and prior disease status on immunogenicity following administration of a single dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine: real-world evidence from Israeli healthcare workers, December-January 2020 by Kamal Abu Jabal et al, made available as preprint on 2021-01-31 at https://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2021.01.27.21250567 [... want %more?] | 07:01 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +21139 cases (now 3.8 million), +589 deaths (now 106263) since 23 hours ago — France: +19235 cases (now 3.2 million), +195 deaths (now 76129) since 23 hours ago — Lombardy, Italy: +1438 cases (now 538054), +24 deaths (now 27098) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +3714 cases (now 985275), +39 deaths (now 14053) since 23 hours ago | 07:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: 'Loved ones, not numbers': Inside a British funeral business as COVID deaths surge → https://is.gd/sFDSlI | 08:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | February 01, 2021: The WHO pages contain up-to-date and global information. Please refer to our Wiki for additional information. → https://is.gd/Zir8mY | 09:10 |
| zutt | %cases israel | 09:20 |
| Brainstorm | zutt: In Israel, there have been 643435 confirmed cases (7.0% of the population) and 4796 deaths (0.7% of cases) as of 9 hours ago. 11.1 million tests were performed (5.8% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.9% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 0.8% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Israel for time series data. | 09:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Japan to extend COVID-19 state of emergency on Tuesday → https://is.gd/6Bi736 | 09:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: BioNTech-Pfizer pledges up to 75 mn more vaccine doses to EU: BioNTech and Pfizer said Monday they will ramp up their coronavirus vaccine deliveries to the European Union, pledging to send up to 75 million extra doses to the bloc in the spring. → https://is.gd/lgZ3ip | 10:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: UK trains volunteer vaccine army in Covid inoculation race: More used to wielding a camera than a needle, taking part in a national vaccination campaign was the "last thing" documentary director Mike Day expected to be doing before the start of the coronavirus pandemic. → https://is.gd/uKj3Yf | 10:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: EU still aims to vaccinate 70% of adults by late summer → https://is.gd/hNPmJ5 | 10:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Opinion: The bystander effect, Covid-19 vaccine edition: What do Covid-19 vaccination and the stabbing death of a woman outside of her New York City apartment have in common? The bystander effect. → https://is.gd/zkNNh3 | 10:47 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: McDonald’s Becomes First Fast Food Chain To Pay Workers Time Off To Get Vaccine (10095 votes) | https://labor411.org/411-blog/mcdonalds-becomes-first-fast-food-chain-to-pay-workers-time-off-to-get-vaccine/ | https://redd.it/l9qizu | 11:23 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Saint Lucia: +216 cases (now 1411), +2 deaths (now 15) since 2 days ago | 12:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid-19: UK orders extra 40m doses of Valneva vaccine: Deliveries will come towards next winter when people may need to be revaccinated. → https://is.gd/OoLX1I | 12:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Covid-19: WHO warns against “vaccine nationalism” or face further virus mutations: World Health Organization officials have voiced concerns at “vaccine nationalism” which could increase the risk of the coronavirus mutating further, after a week long row over a shortfall in EU... → https://is.gd/Hpv3KH | 12:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: UK's first Covid evacuees: 'I wish I'd stayed in Wuhan and missed flight' → https://is.gd/xcEGUU | 13:04 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | hmm >> Compared with workers with no evidence of previous disease, post-vaccination IgG levels among those with previous evidence of disease (either a positive IgG at baseline or a previously recorded positive PCR test) were much higher (GMC 573 vs 61.5). IgG titers among those with previous evidence of infection were at least one order of magnitude high than those without, regardless of whether IgG antibodies were detectable prior | 13:19 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | to being vaccinated<< https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250567v1.full.pdf+html - doesn't seem like the BoJo vax regimen is not exactly optimal | 13:19 |
| zutt | some doctor/nurse/notsurewhattheyare in Finland found out that you can actually get 7 doses out of the pfizer vaccine bottles, instead of the intended 5 doses if you use some tricks with saline solution to not waste anything in the needles | 13:27 |
| zutt | https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=fi&tl=en&u=https://www.iltalehti.fi/koronavirus/a/b27ac8a0-2eac-42c4-85db-76a1b52d195f (does not translate very well, but apparently pfizer is considering this as a valid vaccination strategy) | 13:28 |
| de-facto | the word BioNTech, the developer of BNT162b2 does not appear anywhere in the whole paper, does that mean we call it the Pfizer vaccine from now on? What kind of sense would that make? | 13:32 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577 | 13:35 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.nejm.org: Safety and Efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine | NEJM | 13:35 |
| de-facto | "Pfizer was responsible for the design and conduct of the trial, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, and the writing of the manuscript. BioNTech was the sponsor of the trial, manufactured the BNT162b2 clinical trial material, and contributed to the interpretation of the data and the writing of the manuscript." | 13:35 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | zutt: all moot since Pfizer charges you for *doses* | 13:35 |
| genera | time for a retraction )) | 13:36 |
| zutt | DocScrutinizer05: yeah, I don't know anything about that (or the vaccines.. not) - just was thinking that this is interesting stuff | 13:37 |
| zutt | s/not)//g | 13:37 |
| zutt | aw no sedbot | 13:37 |
| genera | "we used one type of drug but assume it applies to all others too" | 13:38 |
| zutt | genera: "technology has been approved by Pfizer" so this is too late now lol :D | 13:38 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Senegal: +404 cases (now 26927), +10 deaths (now 638) since a day ago | 13:39 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | nope, this is BNT162 of BioNTech/Pfizer or just BioNTech | 13:40 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | US arrogance to call it Pfizer vaccine | 13:41 |
| genera | and they even pronounce his name wrong | 13:41 |
| genera | its Pfitzer, not faiser. | 13:42 |
| genera | but what do we care ^^ | 13:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: AstraZeneca to deliver 9M more coronavirus vaccine doses to EU – Politico → https://is.gd/c0c7so | 13:50 |
| de-facto | was the LNP tech for BNT162b2 from some Canadian company? i think i read something like that somewhere | 13:50 |
| de-facto | also: would be interesting to hear about their indent to improve temp stability for their platform, yet right now scaling rates up is more important i guess | 13:52 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I guess _this_ is well running along concurrently | 13:52 |
| de-facto | .title https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-02-biontech-pfizer-pledges-mn-vaccine-doses.html <-- so they do scale up already... | 13:53 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From medicalxpress.com: BioNTech-Pfizer pledges up to 75 mn more jabs to EU | 13:53 |
| de-facto | ...yet i wish for even more of their production rate capacity | 13:53 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | the one week ditch in yield was due to a reconstruction for higher yield long term | 13:54 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | the bitching about that was totally unwarranted | 13:55 |
| de-facto | yes i think its totally fine if they have to temporarily shut down to increase their yield, we need much more of that | 13:55 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | the marburg(?) fab still supposed to start in February? | 13:55 |
| de-facto | probably | 13:56 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | our nitwit jackass politicians demanding >>we now need to suspend patents to *quickly* ramp up production<< is total bullshit | 13:57 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | any company now getting a "free as in beer licence" to build a new production site won't get to market any sonner than 2022, possibly no sooner than summer of next year even | 13:59 |
| de-facto | yeah thats too slow, somehow they have to speed up their increase of production rates creatively | 14:00 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | today's "news"(?): Bayer partners with CureVac | 14:01 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | to deliver 2022 | 14:02 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | plans: 160mn | 14:02 |
| de-facto | seriously increased production rates would be worth many trillions of dollars annually imho | 14:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Covid: How worrying are the UK, South Africa, and Brazil coronavirus variants? → https://is.gd/4gbOmY | 14:03 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | there's just so much you can speed up with money. It's like with the 4 weeks baby, how many pregnant women do you need to keep that schedule | 14:03 |
| de-facto | as would block import o evasion mutants | 14:03 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | if we had thrown much more money at it a year ago, we'd see results now | 14:06 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | if we throw money now, it will impact in 2022 | 14:06 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | btw UK did, they already ordered 40mn of some vaccine for 2022 booster shot | 14:07 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | THIS is sorta smart | 14:08 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | and I bet they'll hear quite some bitching next year >>why the heck didn't you order 180mn??!<< | 14:09 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | but honestly, meanwhile the big money investors should have noticed the next money printing opportunity and ramp up vay production everywhere | 14:12 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | vax* | 14:12 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | if someone had invested a 100mn € a 12 months ago to build some vax fab as fast as possible, they easily could make billions now. Do you think any fond manager or whatever will miss out on such opportunity | 14:15 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | somewhere I heard yesterday that today's vax conference might decide to pay boni for fast delivery and that is missing in all original contracts. Makes a lot of sense to me | 14:28 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | actually it's strange how we all fall back to GDR heritage government-advised "5 jahres plan" management structures. Money makes the world go round, and without commercial perspective and competition and yeah, greed, today we wouln't even have an idea when we'll eventually see first vaccine | 14:33 |
| de-facto | tbh i dont get why blocs like EU did not buy a billion vaccines as soon as it was clear there are some with 95% efficiency from their domestic companies | 14:45 |
| de-facto | it would have been a huge win-win, the companies would have had more than enough money to ramp up their capacity, EU would have saved trillions of economic loss by vaccinations and the companies would even be in the top suppliers worldwide in a market that definitely got a bright future | 14:47 |
| de-facto | heck EU said they would buy vaccines also for poorer countries, so with their 892 doses for their own citizens they could easily have bought several billions of doses | 14:48 |
| de-facto | well whatever, i guess politicians would have to get this explained like one would to a small child, maybe then they would understand where to put our money then | 14:49 |
| de-facto | maybe if Biden will put a lot more effort into this an awakening will occur and they throw a lot more money in to ramping up vaccination production rates? | 14:55 |
| de-facto | whatever is needed to be done to ramp up production rates has to be done immediately and even in advance, imho this is of uttermost importance | 14:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: China spreading conspiracy theory that COVID-19 was created in US lab and Pfizer vaccine is killing elderly → https://is.gd/SqTOId | 15:04 |
| de-facto | challenge might be to do both 1) ramping up production rates 2) ensuring quality and approve every charge, yet there is not alternative to it, so i hope they somehow can achieve that | 15:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Oxford kept COVID-19 vaccine trial volunteers in dark about dosing error, letter shows → https://is.gd/5Vq6EW | 15:16 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +3775 cases (now 525095), +32 deaths (now 9413) since 14 hours ago — Germany: +6432 cases (now 2.2 million) since 23 hours ago | 15:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Covid-19: social and behavioural responses to chaotic decision making: “Chaotic decision making,” as well as undermining the government’s response to the pandemic,1 also lowers behavioural adherence to lockdown restrictions.Lockdown adherence can be compromised by... → https://is.gd/PUEv7U | 16:05 |
| Arsanerit | de-facto: How does the total number of vaccines they bought make a difference if the companies can't even meet the number they actually bought? | 16:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): South Africa variant: Urgent Covid testing after community cases found → https://is.gd/83IAHY | 16:17 |
| de-facto | Arsanerit, yes i think so because it may give the companies either directly more money to invest into upscaling their production rates or if its the option to sell more in the future maybe attract more investments or allow for better conditions for credits etc | 16:21 |
| de-facto | yet i bet money is not the only factor, also strategic planing in supply chains and capacities, dependencies etc pp | 16:22 |
| Arsanerit | Maybe, but I'm not sure about the long-term planning of vaccine companies, which may be even more complicated for mRNA or other novel vaccines? | 16:24 |
| de-facto | should be planed for redundancy and having it under domestic (local) control as much as possible, otherwise they might just throw their arms in the air stating its not their fault if production rate goals cant be reached blaming a foreign supplier dependency or such | 16:24 |
| Arsanerit | Domestic control <=> "vaccine nationalism" / export controls good or bad idea? | 16:24 |
| de-facto | Arsanerit, the thing is that mRNA is a platform, i think the "recipe content" itself (in a semantic sense) can be easily adjusted once the production infrastructure is implemented | 16:25 |
| de-facto | not vaccine nationalism, i meant the upstream supply chain dependencies for production | 16:26 |
| de-facto | imho its a strategic question in terms of economy, not only "to be nice and give everyone a free vaccine" | 16:27 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Pharma: STAT+: Pharmalittle: AstraZeneca to boost Covid-19 vaccine supplies to EU; what comes next for Biogen’s Alzheimer’s drug? → https://is.gd/LdPx09 | 16:30 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | AZ basically says >>we built 2 new fabs in EU after EU placed their order and we have problems to teach the cook how to stir the porridge now, to get the yield we see in our senior cook's fab in england<< | 16:30 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | what could've been done? Start earlier, build more fabs | 16:31 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | both depending on date and volume of EU order | 16:32 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | and no gvmt orders of any kind will change that _now_ | 16:33 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | particularly not short term | 16:33 |
| de-facto | If we have ~5 billion people in the age range of 15-65 we would need at least 10 billion vaccine doses, with updates in regards to new variants of concern a lot more | 16:34 |
| de-facto | over all population would be even more than 7.7 billion | 16:34 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | the subject of dispute is: AZ been supposed to pre-produce doses in those EU fabs during November and Dezember abd received money for that, and it's unclear - at least publicly - if those doses ever been made and where they went | 16:35 |
| de-facto | probably 8 billion in 2023 | 16:35 |
| de-facto | the problem is not what has happened (or not happened) in the past, the question is what can be done to significantly raise production rates many orders of magnitude in the nearest future | 16:36 |
| de-facto | export restrictions et al make no sense, imho building new fabs or restructuring existing ones makes sense | 16:37 |
| de-facto | and if original producers cant supply, take the licence from them by force and give it to the such factories that can deliver | 16:38 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | how many orders of magnitude do you want to go? did you include India, Russia, China, USA, UK into your considerations? | 16:38 |
| de-facto | basically threaten them to loose the profit with their platform if they dont put everything possible into ramping up their output rates | 16:38 |
| de-facto | btw AZ does not make profit from the vaccine itself (maybe from increasing their caps though) | 16:39 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>and if original producers cant supply, take the licence from them by force and give it to the such factories that can deliver<< hahaha, if only. The point is **there IS NOBODY who actually can** | 16:39 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>basically threaten them to loose the profit<< vs >>AZ does not make profit << - what is the point now? | 16:40 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | lose* | 16:40 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | you are arguing like "licence" was some magic wand to wave over the kettle to produce that stuff in no time | 16:42 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I tell you sth - BNT already *gave* that "licence" to Sanofi | 16:42 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | ...and they sttaed several times that they're more than willing to share/give it to anybody else interested | 16:44 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | surprise: no waiting queue for receiving that licence | 16:45 |
| de-facto | yes of course because they know exactly that would happen if they would try to sit on their license | 16:47 |
| de-facto | i guess their profit is in the future market share by their platform in a strategic sense, but also in the current market for those that dont sell for no profit | 16:48 |
| de-facto | anyhow thats not really the point, production capacity is | 16:48 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | oh, I thought that _was_ about increasing production capacity? | 16:49 |
| de-facto | probably there is some potential in neighboring industry, for example CureVac partnered with Bayer for the production of their mRNA platform, despite Bayer never have produced something like that before (not even any other vaccine) | 16:52 |
| de-facto | so it seems to be possible that such things can be done | 16:53 |
| de-facto | that makes me wonder how much more companies potentially could help with increasing production rates | 16:53 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | and no, there's no pressure like >>they know exactly that would happen if they would try to sit on their license<< since nobody has an interest from _not_ sublicencing their platform to whoever wants. There's simply a market with unlimited demand. In such a market you're not afraid of competitors, you're afraid of not finding enough resources to ramp up your production volume beyond your wildest dreams | 16:53 |
| de-facto | with neighboring industry i meant in terms of expertise or a somewhat similar field of expertise | 16:54 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | again, CureVac/Bayer supposed to deliver 2022 | 16:54 |
| de-facto | nope i think this year | 16:55 |
| de-facto | next year would be much too late | 16:55 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | maybe I'm wrong and it was autumn of this year, anyway will take several months and not even a coarse CI for that date being true | 16:56 |
| de-facto | https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/bayer-impfstoffproduktion-101.html | 16:57 |
| de-facto | .tr <de CureVac-Chef Franz-Werner Haas kündigte nun an, die Produktionsmengen durch die erweiterte Zusammenarbeit stark erhöhen zu können. "Zum Ende des Jahres werden wir mehrere hundert Millionen Dosen zur Verfügung haben", sagte Haas. Für das Jahr 2022 seien bisher 600 Millionen Dosen geplant gewesen. Durch Ausweitung des bestehenden Produktionsnetzwerkes würden es nun mindestens eine Milliarde werden. | 16:57 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, German to English: CureVac boss Franz-Werner Haas has now announced that he will be able to significantly increase production volumes through the expanded cooperation. "By the end of the year we will have several hundred million cans available," said Haas. So far, 600 million cans have been planned for 2022. By expanding the existing production network, it would now be [... want %more?] | 16:57 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | Bayer, as you and they stated, never done this before. They don't even dare to estimate how long it will take them to build up a production line they never had before. It's a first-timer, a premiere. If you ever been working in industry, you know there's a lot of marketing and press release blabla and there's the engineers and sourcing officers OTOH which just shake their head hearing that blabla of their own company | 17:00 |
| de-facto | well this is not a normal situation now, its a global emergency state hence also should be dealt like that | 17:01 |
| de-facto | industry was able to work much differently at wartime, as do humans under pressure | 17:01 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | that's an oversimplification. Some stuff in war times been anxiously awaited though never got accomplished no matter how many resources been thrown at it | 17:03 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | it's the _simple_ things that been ramped up by orders of magnitude | 17:03 |
| de-facto | not really, also weapon production rates, delivery platform production rates, ampicillin production rates etc | 17:05 |
| de-facto | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penicillin#Mass_production | 17:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: What parents should know about COVID-19 vaccines and children: The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has authorized the emergency use of two COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is approved for people over 16, and the Moderna vaccine is approved for people over 18. While both vaccines have proven to be [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/f7Hydh | 17:06 |
| de-facto | Penicillin made a big difference in terms of how soon soldiers were able to resume the battlefield | 17:07 |
| the-wes | I'm still trying to decide if I want the moderna or the pfizer product, once I'm eligible | 17:08 |
| Arsanerit | Chances are we still need vaccines in 2022 and 2023 and 2024. | 17:08 |
| Arsanerit | the-wes: do you get to choose?4 | 17:09 |
| the-wes | sure. depends on where I get it | 17:09 |
| the-wes | I have an HMO, so if I want it free, it'll be whatever they have available at the time | 17:09 |
| the-wes | I'm open to paying if I think there's an advantage | 17:10 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>As the medical application was established, the Oxford team found that it was impossible to produce usable amounts in their laboratory [...] travelled to the US in June 1941 with their mould samples [...] On March 14, 1942, the first patient was treated<< | 17:10 |
| the-wes | one of them supposedly (somehow?) covers more variants than the other | 17:10 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I think we're performing quite well compared to this | 17:10 |
| the-wes | I was about to say "especially considering this is an entirely new process" but actually so was penicillin, so it's a fair comparison | 17:11 |
| the-wes | blarg. is.gd is blocked by the wifi I'm on | 17:16 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +3068 cases (now 780965), +62 deaths (now 20040) since 23 hours ago | 17:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Effects of Contact Restrictions During the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic on Newborns and Their Parents → https://is.gd/BQi3e8 | 17:19 |
| Arsanerit | I don't care too much what vaccine I get personally, as long as enough people get vaccinated for herd immunity and society can open up a bit. | 17:21 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | ^^^ | 17:21 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | re moderna vs BNT, I think there's basically zilch difference | 17:22 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | particularly regarding efficiency against varaints, there's no plausible explanation why we might see any differences between them | 17:23 |
| the-wes | I'm worried about the newer ones with like 60% effectiveness getting approved | 17:24 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | the J&J? yeah | 17:25 |
| de-facto | actually that would be an interesting question: if antibodies raised against the Wuhan strain spike protein (employed by current vaccines) may be lowered by some variants of concern (VOCs), would it be reasonable to assume that antibody levels raised by vaccination directly would translate into a timespan for which protection could be more or less assumed also against those? | 17:25 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | sorry, lost me | 17:27 |
| de-facto | more antibody level, longer protection above the threshold even for the new VOCs (with less efficient neutralization) | 17:28 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I doubt the "antibody level proportional to protection timespan" | 17:29 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | it's what a lot of scientists seem to assert but it's a little bit simplistic in my book, ignoring T-cells etc | 17:30 |
| the-wes | oh, J&J is saying their number came in lower due to differences in testing circumstances | 17:34 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | just yesterday there been a paper referred to in here in which they didn't look to antibodies only. AAH the >>immunity in israel after FIRST shot<< study | 17:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Mayotte: +357 cases (now 8588) since 3 days ago — United Kingdom: +9871 cases (now 3.8 million), +205 deaths (now 106363) since 23 hours ago | 17:35 |
| the-wes | oh! and J&J's is not an mrna vaccine. interesting | 17:36 |
| de-facto | If antibody levels would have an exponential decay hence have a concentration of c[t] = c0 Exp[ -Ln[2] t / t2 ] == c_threshold it would stay t = t2 Ln[ c_threshold / c0 ] / Ln[ 2 ] over that protection threshold c_threshold | 17:36 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250567v1.full.pdf+html | 17:36 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | .vax j&j | 17:37 |
| Brainstorm | DocScrutinizer05, no such vaccine found. Try checking https://covidvax.org | 17:37 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | .vax janssen | 17:37 |
| de-facto | .vax janssen | 17:37 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, Ad26 alone or with MVA boost is a Non-replicating viral vector vaccine developed in Belgium + USA by Janssen (Johnson & Johnson) + Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (Harvard Medical School) + Emergent BioSolutions + Catalent, which started testing on humans initially on Aug 11, currently employing 60000 healthy volunteers aged 18+ → [... want %more?] | 17:38 |
| Brainstorm | DocScrutinizer05, Ad26 alone or with MVA boost is a Non-replicating viral vector vaccine developed in Belgium + USA by Janssen (Johnson & Johnson) + Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (Harvard Medical School) + Emergent BioSolutions + Catalent, which started testing on humans initially on Aug 11, currently employing 60000 healthy volunteers aged 18+ → [... want %more?] | 17:38 |
| de-facto | so basically protection time would go linear with those log10 scales they plot onto their graphs times Ln[ 10 ] ~ 2.3 of course | 17:41 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | presence of antibodies is a strong indicator for protection, however absence of antibodies isn't a proof foe absence of protection | 17:44 |
| de-facto | yeah in reality its more difficult because of all those nonlinear reactions, but since we know there is some sort of expiry time for common cold CoVs its safe to assume SARS-CoV-2 also will have an expiry time to immunity | 17:45 |
| de-facto | and antibody level probably is the easiest to measure without human challenge trials or such | 17:45 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | it's the immune cells that form the immune system long term memory | 17:46 |
| Arsanerit | Isn't J&J the one with the "selling point" it only needs a single dose? | 17:46 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | umm yes? | 17:46 |
| de-facto | and since protection by vaccines seems to be somewhat dependent on dose (from those phase 1 and 2 trials) and be lowered by those VOCs and also over time its safe to assume vaccinations also expire over time, the question is of current vaccines can induce high enough levels to ensure enough protection over time until a complete evasion was achieved by the pathogen | 17:48 |
| de-facto | afaik there were some studies with common cold CoVs that blood serum from a few years ago did not had any neutralization ability anymore (due to mutations) | 17:48 |
| de-facto | not sure about the exact time scales but it was years | 17:48 |
| de-facto | that is from natural infection and recovery of course | 17:49 |
| de-facto | i think the exponential approach is not too wrong here | 17:49 |
| de-facto | maybe its not directly antibody levels, but i am pretty sure an exponential model would be appropriate to approximate this | 17:50 |
| the-wes | single dose, plus easier to produce, store, transport, etc | 17:50 |
| the-wes | there is a serious dilemma between "60% protection now" vs "95% protection in 6 months" | 17:51 |
| the-wes | and, of course, there is simply no testing done to see what happens if someone were to get both | 17:51 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.17.423313v1 | 17:53 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.biorxiv.org: A human coronavirus evolves antigenically to escape antibody immunity | bioRxiv | 17:53 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: >> Those with prior infection had antibody titres one magnitude order higher than naïve individuals ***regardless of the presence of detectable IgG antibodies*** pre-vaccination.<< Which in turn means their immune system was well aware of the prior infection (at large commonly dubbed "immunity") DESPITE there were NO antibodies pre-vaccination | 17:53 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250567v1.full.pdf+html | 17:53 |
| de-facto | they used HCoV-229E | 17:53 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, keep in mind that ELISA tests have detection thresholds, you never can determine "no antibodies at all" with a test | 17:54 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | doesn't matter | 17:55 |
| de-facto | it does, its not possible to test for no antibodies, only for "level below sensitivity of current testing method" | 17:55 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | they been *one magnitude higher* response to first shot since their immune system considered it "2nd shot" due to their memory of a former covid infection - and they had NO (detectable) antibodies so the usual tests would have binned them into the "not protected at all" bin | 17:57 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | doesn't matter | 17:57 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | we can discuss the definition of "no antibodies" or the definition of "blue" in "blue sky". It's not related to the effect I try to demonstrate here | 17:58 |
| de-facto | one magnitude would be only 2.3-fold time above a certain level if decay is exponential with time | 17:59 |
| de-facto | i wonder how that would translate to an "update vaccination" against some new VOCs | 18:01 |
| de-facto | like how many of the memory B-cells would produce antibodies against the previous "old" s-protein and how many could be updated for the "new" variant? | 18:02 |
| de-facto | probably (hopefully) more "new" variants, that would at least be a significant evolutionary advantage | 18:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from ScienceNews: Ship exhaust studies overestimate cooling from pollution-altered clouds: Lines of clouds formed by ship exhaust offer a window into aerosol-cloud interactions but may overestimate how much pollution-altered clouds cool the climate. → https://is.gd/019i40 | 18:04 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | AIUI there's a search&expose function that finds the new spike protein since it looks siimilar to a known offender, then that spike protein gets presented to another function level that uses the new spike protein to tailor matching antibodies. Concurrently "the offender database gets updated" | 18:06 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | antibodies are just "the inbound missiles" that defeat the virus | 18:08 |
| de-facto | well yeah but to stay in that picture, if "missiles" (aka antibodies) already are in a production line its much faster to ramp up that production line (than to develop a new type of missile) | 18:10 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>"update vaccination" against some new VOCs [...] how many of the memory B-cells would produce antibodies against the previous "old" s-protein and how many could be updated for the "new" variant<< according to my ^^^ take on it, the update shot will completely train the memory to also attack the new variant same way it did with the old one | 18:13 |
| de-facto | i dont think its the same, because that would be a waste of resources, it probably is more than for the old strain | 18:14 |
| de-facto | i mean waning off for antibodies is not a flaw, its a feature for efficient usage of resources | 18:14 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I'm not sure I conveyed the idea that new antibodies are built against the recently detected spike protein, not from memory for some construction plan of a protein not seen here | 18:16 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | we don't have antibodies all the time, against all types of virus we ever encountered. It's the memory that *detects* a virus and *produces new* antibodies in very short timespan | 18:19 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | those new antibodies afaik are tailored to match and neutralize exactly the virus recently found and detected | 18:20 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I think it's the detection mechanism that gets trained, not the manufacturing mechanism or even its products, the antibodies | 18:21 |
| de-facto | its probably quite complex (immunology in details), i think it must be both, ramping up the "best candidates from memory as fast as possible to contain it" but also "learn from the new variant how to neutralize it with newly raised antibody variants later" | 18:25 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | yes, obviously we're "more alert" to fight a virus when there are already antibody missiles on the flight ready to impact. However we still can cope with a virus when we first have to launch them antibody missiles once we see the virus | 18:25 |
| de-facto | because 1) protection obviously is much faster for a trained immune system 2) it can learn also to protect against new variants (hence adapt to antigen drift and evasion) | 18:25 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I don't think we have a "build antibodies from memory" function. AFAIK it's always "build antibodies, here is the fragment of the hull of an offender we just haunted down for you" | 18:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Covid: Israel's vaccine drive behind fall in infections → https://is.gd/61FXhr | 18:26 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | but I'm really not an expert in this domain | 18:27 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | one thing's for sure: it's very very complex | 18:27 |
| de-facto | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memory_B_cell | 18:27 |
| de-facto | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germinal_center | 18:28 |
| de-facto | actually this is pretty cool how this functions | 18:29 |
| de-facto | .title https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6528/464.full | 18:32 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From science.sciencemag.org: Lessons in antiviral immunity | Science | 18:32 |
| de-facto | btw all this immune system dynamic can make a big difference in terms of neutralization between a) in vitro serum (hence static) neutralization assays even against a life VOC in cell cultures b) in vivo challenge with a new VOC and (dynamic) immune (adaptive) response raised against that | 18:35 |
| de-facto | hence those neutralization preprint papers have to be taken with a grian of salt, for sure the neutralization efficiency in vitro may show a tendency but cant be directly translated in vivo (dynamic) system | 18:36 |
| de-facto | and that works in our favor, i think its pretty save to assume that neutralization (for a virus not profiting from the immune system cells themselves) the neutralization probably is more efficient in vivo than in vitro | 18:38 |
| de-facto | otherwise all those functionalities would not have been an advantage for the host in evolution | 18:39 |
| LazySundayDreams | %cases Czechia | 18:41 |
| Brainstorm | LazySundayDreams: In Czechia, there have been 987329 confirmed cases (9.2% of the population) and 16392 deaths (1.7% of cases) as of 9 hours ago. 6.2 million tests were performed (16.0% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.0% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 1.8% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Czechia for time series data. | 18:41 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>for sure the neutralization efficiency in vitro may show a tendency but cant be directly translated in vivo<< >>its pretty save to assume that neutralization (for a virus not profiting from the immune system cells themselves) the neutralization probably is more efficient in vivo than in vitro<< couldn't have put it better | 18:43 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>virus not profiting from the immune system cells themselves<< the nasty part about AIDS | 18:45 |
| Arsanerit | %cases Eswatini | 18:45 |
| Brainstorm | Arsanerit: In Eswatini, there have been 15711 confirmed cases (1.4% of the population) and 565 deaths (3.6% of cases) as of 22 hours ago. 133089 tests were performed (11.8% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.4% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 5.1% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Eswatini for time series data. | 18:45 |
| de-facto | btw there probably also are quite some differences between immunity induced by vaccination (s-protein centered) and immunity induced by recovery from infection by a wild type (against all the other parts of the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen too) | 18:47 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | supposedly yes, though it seems the surface of the virus are mainly spike proteins, the rest hidden behind them. At least my take on it | 18:49 |
| de-facto | if that is an advantage (more directed at the desired neutralization by the RBD) or disadvantage (maybe faster evasion possible) remains to be seen, i only mention that because of the possibility that the timescales may not directly be comparable (modulo the different levels directly after conversion from naive) | 18:49 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | also S is the functional part to get neutralitized by antibodies. duno what's the deal with all those phage cells etc | 18:50 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | AIUI when an antibody doesn't occupy and thus block the receptor binding protein aka spike, theen there's not much else it could do that I'd know of | 18:53 |
| de-facto | antibodies not only block (like e.g. nanobodies do) but also mark with their tail | 18:54 |
| de-facto | like a flag "TODO: handle nasty antigen" | 18:54 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | T-cells could attack the infected cell and thus kkeep it from replication of a zillion new virus instances | 18:54 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | yes, that flagging is what I dubbed "search&present function" above | 18:55 |
| de-facto | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adaptive_immune_system | 19:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR: U.S. Cuts $231 Million Deal To Provide 15-Minute COVID-19 At-Home Tests: The Food and Drug Administration gave emergency authorization to Ellume's rapid test in December, after it showed 96% accuracy in a U.S. clinical study. → https://is.gd/RYiDIi | 19:03 |
| de-facto | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody | 19:04 |
| de-facto | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single-domain_antibody | 19:06 |
| Arsanerit | My colleague is a fool. He planned a vacation in Portugal (Madeira). He had planned to fly there today. His girlfriend is already there and now can't get home. His flight got cancelled last minute so he's still home. | 19:07 |
| de-facto | airtravel to the regions with highest concentrations of the VOCs, best idea ever. thank god they start to cancel such flights | 19:10 |
| de-facto | imho they should be completely shut down (except for cargo) | 19:10 |
| de-facto | people want to have fun and be entertained, go for vacation and dont care at all about the consequences of their actions for the society they live in (and profit from) | 19:12 |
| de-facto | hence passenger flights should be illegal, completely without any exceptions, in general. | 19:12 |
| de-facto | hopefully airtravel industry focusing on passenger transport (and not transition to cargo transport) will go bankrupt and vanish. i really do desperately hope that they wont get saved by taxpayers money. | 19:20 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +7925 cases (now 2.6 million), +329 deaths (now 88845) since a day ago — Germany: +7286 cases (now 2.2 million) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +3654 cases (now 781566), +83 deaths (now 20061) since 23 hours ago — Switzerland: +57 deaths (now 9438) since 18 hours ago | 19:20 |
| de-facto | instead new gigantic airports for passenger travel are build, for a magnitude more than the initially estimated costs | 19:22 |
| de-facto | argh, this is beyond stupid, with the knowledge its almost spreading pathogens on purpose, they did not even require a simple temperature check months after they did that already in other countries | 19:23 |
| de-facto | imho the whole airtravel industry is a GIGANTIC fail in terms of their ASTRONOMICALLY stupid ignorance of biosecurity | 19:24 |
| de-facto | i know that from someone first hand, she had to do all sorts of tests in Asia but then back in Europe there was nothing, zero, nada as if nothing happened at all despite official case numbers already on the raise | 19:25 |
| de-facto | have they learned from it? according to the spread of the current VOCs: NO. | 19:26 |
| de-facto | (sorry if i get a bit angry about this, its just i try my best to contribute to containment myself, staying inside a 10km radius for over one year now, just to watch the potentially escaping variants to travel by airplane all over the world, thats extremely frustrating) | 19:33 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>imho the whole airtravel industry is a GIGANTIC fail in terms of their ASTRONOMICALLY stupid ignorance of biosecurity << ack | 19:34 |
| genera | ach unsinn! we are prepared very goodly! | 19:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from In The Pipeline: Screening, Within and Without: So I’m a small-molecule drug discovery person at heart, since I started out as a synthetic organic chemist. Talking about vaccines and antibodies nonstop is a bit of a strain, then, because immunology is full of stuff that’s rather far removed from good ol’ small-molecule ligands. Actually [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/mEO6I5 | 19:38 |
| genera | (citing our health minister. i think) | 19:39 |
| de-facto | i dont blame anyone for making (unintentional) mistakes in the past as long as they are taken to learn from them and improve on them in the future. ignorance of (long) known transmission paths on the other side though are a different pair of shoes, because ignoring requires some sort of intent and active decision | 19:42 |
| de-facto | and i consider it long time public knowledge that SARS-CoV-2 spreads most efficiently via infected airtravel passengers on long distances in shortest possible times | 19:44 |
| de-facto | so not closing that down is intentionally permitting that spread, and i blame the responsible for that, vacation flights can not possibly be as important than to prevent lockdown due to importing a new variant of concern | 19:46 |
| Raf[m] | <de-facto "and i consider it long time publ"> any studies on this topic? | 19:46 |
| de-facto | well there are first cases known in several countries that were flights from Wuhan for example | 19:47 |
| de-facto | i dont need a study to understand that if as soon as human to human transmission is a thing localized containment only is possible when mobility is restricted | 19:48 |
| de-facto | btw same goes for flights from Europe, they spread it all over the world | 19:49 |
| de-facto | the problem being directly after an infection no test will show a positive result | 19:49 |
| de-facto | long incubation time until someone becomes infectious, and maybe never develops symptoms hence is not even aware of having spread it with traveling | 19:50 |
| de-facto | well sure once someone is infectious also would test positive, but that can take some time and there is quite a big range for temporal dynamics to distinguish from the average or median timescales | 19:51 |
| Raf[m] | I agree I'm just curious about transmission within the airplane itself. Airlines have been boasting that their flights are COVID safe and I'm wondering if it's just a load of hot air to make people more inclined to travel in a struggling industry | 19:52 |
| de-facto | ah well sure there also are infections happening during flights, but also could have happened in the source region directly before flight (taking a coffee?) or in a queue at the terminal or at the toilet at ${you_name_it} | 19:53 |
| de-facto | Raf[m], i think there are some studies about the air-ventilation systems in modern airplanes restricting the spread of respiratory diseases such as flu to only directly the neighboring rows and seats or such | 19:54 |
| de-facto | so probably similar behavior for respiratory pathogens with similar R0 | 19:55 |
| LjL | but someone also showed me a case study of... SARS, i think? where a passenger had it and the WHO or the CDC had estimated that certain seats would be at risk of catching it (the ones near it, under some criteria) | 19:56 |
| LjL | but that in reality the people who caught it were all over the plane pretty much unrelated to how close they were sitting :P | 19:56 |
| LjL | indeed the air in an airplane is changed fully so frequently (every couple of minutes, afaik) that the dynamics must be pretty complex | 19:56 |
| Raf[m] | that's how i picture it, just air being recirculated all throughout the plane | 19:56 |
| de-facto | yeah sure, yet i think its not the primary problem (infections at airplanes themselves), the problem with the mobility even would be there if everyone was only allowed to travel in airplanes with full hazmat suits with respirators like in those biosec labs | 19:57 |
| bin_bash | LjL: i think the issue is that air on planes is typically recirculated rather than being pulled from otuside, which is a big part of why smoking was outlawed. i vaguely remember seeing something about them trying to change that for covid? but not sure, id have to look | 20:00 |
| LjL | bin_bash, the air is partly recirculated, but every couple of minutes it gets fully replaced with new air anyway. that's what i know from both reading it somewhere, and hearing it from a pilot explaining | 20:01 |
| bin_bash | hm not sure | 20:02 |
| bin_bash | I thought it was only a small percentage | 20:02 |
| bin_bash | let me see if i can find it | 20:03 |
| de-facto | yeah they compress the outside air in their turbines hence can exchange while maintaining pressure and also recirculate at the same time through HEPA filters, still someone getting infected directly prior to entering the plane would not detect positive and still transport a variant | 20:03 |
| bin_bash | I very well could be wrong | 20:03 |
| LjL | tidbit: in a Boeing 737 and other planes as well, the inlets in one engine bring air to the cabin, the ones in the other engine bring air to the cockpit. when there is a bird strike, an expedient way to know which engine has been hit, if instrumentation isn't helping, is to know whether you're smelling burned chicken in the cockpit, or in the cabin. | 20:03 |
| bin_bash | but iirc it was something aboutn having the engines do less work | 20:03 |
| bin_bash | one min | 20:03 |
| bin_bash | ahh this was it | 20:04 |
| bin_bash | up to 50% which is more than i thoguht https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/195131 | 20:04 |
| bin_bash | I wonder if they modified that | 20:04 |
| LjL | well, that paper seems to show that there is no difference in incidence of upper respiratory infections, so if they believe that, they wouldn't have changed. i certainly haven't heard of any changes | 20:06 |
| LjL | besides, any changes now would be extremely expensive to the airlines since they're barely flying. i doubt they'd be all over their airplanes making changes to the air circulation system... | 20:06 |
| bin_bash | yah but it was specifically for the common cold and is nearly 20 years old. it's just about if people have symptoms not if they have any specific disease | 20:08 |
| bin_bash | looks like other studies have found similar though which is interestign https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK143720/ | 20:08 |
| bin_bash | so then I'd guess nothing would change with the filtration | 20:08 |
| de-facto | if contamination level on cabin air is barely at infection threshold level filtration should significantly influence the transmission probability, if its oversaturated anyhow it probably would not make a big difference (without masks or other means of reducing exposure doses) | 20:11 |
| de-facto | its a probabilistic model with smooth transitions afterall | 20:11 |
| de-facto | also the level of locality probably plays a role, if i would light a cig at the first row, how many rows behind it will it be able to be recognized? are there compartmentalized zones separated by filters and falling air flow preventing sideway diffusion over far distances? | 20:14 |
| bin_bash | i'd say if someone in the first row lit a cigarette it would be only a short amount of time until the entire plane smelled it\ | 20:16 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | umm, evidently not | 20:17 |
| de-facto | its about (infectious) aerosol production rates and mobility vs removal rates and restriction of sideway diffusion | 20:20 |
| de-facto | idk if everyone absolutely consequently wears an FFP2 mask without valve and never ever takes it off id assume the probability of spread to be pretty low (inside the airplane itself), protection is possible, also in much more contaminated environments such as covid stations in hospitals etc | 20:21 |
| de-facto | i really dont think prevention of infection *during* flights is the primary problem that is the biggest challenge to be solved | 20:22 |
| de-facto | its the mobility itself and the lack of biosecurity concepts guaranteeing a security comparable to hermetically separated compartments (such as no travel between zones) | 20:23 |
| de-facto | but yeah if infections happen during flights (that imho easily could be prevented) it would add another multiplication to spread levels because in the same plane passengers with totally different origins and destinations would mix their variants | 20:25 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Immunogenic BNT162b vaccines protect rhesus macaques from SARS-CoV-2 (82 votes) | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03275-y | https://redd.it/la4fud | 20:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from Virological.org: Latest posts: Preliminary in silico assessment of the specificity of published molecular assays and design of new assays using the available whole genome sequences of 2019-nCoV: Updated to 429,535 COVID-19 WGS from GISAID. Table 1. Results from PSET analysis. The five Noblis assays were compared alongside the four assays from [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/etWvtL | 20:27 |
| de-facto | idk pull the emergency and make the use of high flow oxygen masks for everyone on the plane mandatory :P (jk) | 20:28 |
| LjL | https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/laarsl/families_of_wuhan_covid19_victims_claim_china_is/ people on reddit really are morons sometimes | 20:29 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I'm reluctant to suggest any such measures like complete ban of flights, based on a >>i dont need a study to understand that if as soon as human to human transmission is a thing localized containment only is possible when mobility is restricted<<. A) we don't even know if and how we could establish localized containment on ground level and B) on which scale and granularity that would be any effective in real life. For both we need | 20:42 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | proper modeling which I am not capable to do. I tried a layman's approach yesterday resulting in "if we had a 100 UK cases today, we'd see the break even and then after that UK variant becoming dominant in 9 weeks." As already been mentioned >>its a probabilistic model with smooth transitions<< and we need to also consider other alternatives like e.g. strict quarantine which - maybe surprisingly sometimes - may yield even better | 20:42 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | results that the "obvious" brute force simplistic approach | 20:42 |
| de-facto | well yeah, yet as we currently can observe the spread of the new variants worldwide is not contained, hence something has to change in that regard. for sure stopping all mobility would restrict that and since they know that over one year and did not come up with an alternative concept to prevent spread i assume they are incapable of doing so (otherwise they would not risk a complete forced shutdown of all their tourism industry) | 20:47 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I admit that right now it doesn't look like any of the measures taken, be it flight/mobility management or anything else - is much inspired by such strictly scientific approach. Or at very least, if it were, then the parameters and goals of the model are bizarre to say the least | 20:47 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Spain: +67376 cases (now 2.8 million), +762 deaths (now 59081) since 2 days ago — France: +200 deaths (now 76257) since 19 hours ago | 20:47 |
| de-facto | its probably because they assume that their industry wont be shut down and they will be saved by taxpayers money. hence let them go bankrupt. | 20:48 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | yep absolutely | 20:49 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | it's this silly "a german airline is almost of strategical and military relevance" | 20:50 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I call BS | 20:51 |
| de-facto | in terms of being independent with having control over low latency cargo transport capability it might be true | 20:57 |
| de-facto | hence i suggest the transition to that | 20:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR: Meatpacking Companies, OSHA Face Investigation Over Coronavirus In Plants: The House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis is seeking documents from the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, as well as three of the country's largest meatpacking companies. → https://is.gd/uAE4ZH | 21:13 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | btw my layman's model as of "if we had a 100 UK cases today, we'd see the break even and then after that UK variant becoming dominant in 9 weeks." did _not_ even take into account very basic stuff like health offices doing their tracking&containment job at a constant rate. Factoring that in, the result might well be that we _can_ cope with a 100 UK cases as t&c is effective against the UK variant as well, so we _might_ reach a "almost- | 21:14 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | zero-covid" in 12 weeks, or the model might show that we can't (with parameters like R_eff=0.9) | 21:14 |
| de-facto | if current Reff > 1/1.3 or Reff > 1/1.5 the B.1.1.7 variant clusters would be in exponential growth currently even if being able to hide inside an overall Reff < 1 (hence everything appears to be fine) | 21:18 |
| de-facto | unfortunately it seems to even be Reff(non_mutant) < 1 and Reff(B.1.1.7) > 1 hence the most efficient exchange of variants imaginable | 21:19 |
| de-facto | we must achieve a containment below a range of Reff 1 / 1.5 ~ 0.66 till 1 / 1.3 ~ 0.77, that is very hard (was barely scratched at the upper limit of the interval in last spring) | 21:22 |
| de-facto | hence those assuming with current overall R ~ 0.9 everything is fine unfortunately will realize at some point that the new B.1.1.7 variant will explode in all our faces if we dont have more strict lockdowns | 21:23 |
| de-facto | .title https://virological.org/t/tracking-sars-cov-2-voc-202012-01-lineage-b-1-1-7-dissemination-in-portugal-insights-from-nationwide-rt-pcr-spike-gene-drop-out-data/600 | 21:25 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From virological.org: Tracking SARS-CoV-2 VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7) dissemination in Portugal: insights from nationwide RT-PCR Spike gene drop out data - SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus - Virological | 21:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR: Captain Tom, 100-Year-Old Who Inspired Millions, Is Hospitalized With COVID-19: Capt. Tom Moore, a World War II veteran, is now fighting COVID-19, his daughter says. Moore used walks in his garden to raise millions for NHS Charities Together last year. → https://is.gd/5Z4bTj | 21:25 |
| de-facto | https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/portugal/ | 21:26 |
| rahmend[m] | are public use of temperature guns helpful in like restaurants at the front door? | 21:28 |
| de-facto | looks like it exploded in Portugal at the end of last year, R jumping from below 1 to almost 1.3 or such http://metrics.covid19-analysis.org/ | 21:28 |
| de-facto | rahmend[m], well if they cant find even one case with a fever maybe yes, but only as long as the inversion of the causality is not assumed: a) someone with fever might quite likely be contagious does NOT mean b) everyone without fever cant be contagious | 21:30 |
| de-facto | *if they can find just one case it might be helpful already | 21:31 |
| de-facto | https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Jan_2021/2021-01-26-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile <-- page 5 shows a statistic about symptoms | 21:34 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>will realize at some point that the new B.1.1.7 variant will explode in all our faces if we dont have more strict lockdowns<< did you even _read_ what I explained yesterday? | 21:34 |
| de-facto | RKI Information on symptoms is available for 1,381,192 (64%) of the notified COVID-19 cases: cough 40%, fever 27%, rhinorrhoea 28%, sore throat 21%, pneumonia 1%, ageusia and anosmia (only reported since week 12) 22% | 21:36 |
| rahmend[m] | i think it sounds helpful, but not a final solution | 21:36 |
| de-facto | yes i think the same, it can help but we cant rely on it as only measure | 21:37 |
| de-facto | symptoms are not even mandatory at all in order to be infectious (the famous asymptomatic spreaders) | 21:38 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | [31 Jan 2021 18:52:15] <DocScrutinizer05> if we assume we got a "humble" 10 of B.1.1.7(undetected) cases toady, then in 3 weeks when we're supposed to hit 5000/d we get a 10/d new B.1.1.7. In 6 weeks when we're supposed to reach 2500/d we get 40/d of the new variant. (not as bad as I thought, and disclaimer again "if my math doesn't fail on me"). In 9 weeks - if nothing changes - we're at 1300/d with a 130/d VOC. now assume we got 100 | 21:38 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | today, numbers change accordingly. we'd be at 2500 in 9 weeks, with half of them being the monster (aka UK variant) | 21:38 |
| de-facto | yeah i think we agree and i stole the term "explode in our faces" from you | 21:39 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | IF our public health offices are capable to completely track&contain a 2500 per day, then we're "fine" as long as we keep R_eff<0.9 and imported UK cases <100 for 9 weeks | 21:40 |
| rahmend[m] | <DocScrutinizer05 ">>will realize at some point tha"> what did you say yesterday? | 21:40 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | ^^^ is a quote of what I said yesterday | 21:41 |
| rahmend[m] | I read vaccines work on b117 | 21:42 |
| de-facto | yes it looks like they do | 21:42 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | re Portugal: they must have created an R_eff surge up to 5 or more during the holidays, to get where they are now | 21:45 |
| de-facto | the B.1.351 (SA) and P.1 (BR) variants of concern containing mutation E484K (among others) might be different though, it looks like they can partly escape vaccinations (as seen by the current Novavax trials having ~90% efficiancy against non-mutated strains and only ~60% efficiency against those variants in terms of symptomatic disease protection) | 21:46 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | even then, I wonder how long they breed the UK variant for it becoming dominant. As elaborated above, it takes _several_ weeks | 21:46 |
| de-facto | Reff of 5? why you assume that? | 21:47 |
| rahmend[m] | DocScrutinizer05: doesn't that mean that b117, b1351, e484k is manageable due to vaccines + masks + the usual? | 21:47 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | a mere guess, seing how they really hit a massive explosion, didn't they? | 21:47 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | rahmend[m]: yes, of course it's manageable. With R_eff < 0.7 is has less chances than a snowball in summer | 21:48 |
| de-facto | in terms of sequences its only few weeks it seems https://covariants.org/per-country (scroll down to portugal) | 21:48 |
| de-facto | (keep in mind number of sequences is not number of cases though) | 21:49 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | let me rephrase: damn, how much did they *seed* to already get a UK variant dominance after only a few weeks? | 21:50 |
| rahmend[m] | <de-facto "in terms of sequences its only f"> i see sn501, what does that mean? | 21:50 |
| rahmend[m] | uk is expected to be 70% vaccinated by sept 2021 | 21:50 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: All five vaccines with public results have eliminated COVID-19 deaths (10166 votes) | https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20210201&instance_id=26625&nl=the-morning&productCode=NN®i_id=88512468&segment_id=50744&te=1&uri=nyt%3A%2F%2Fnewsletter%2Fbbb05a80-af7c-5037-b53f-35ed99b5d44b&user_id=f3234e383e9d95e70fb91027e7dc01f6 | https://redd.it/la11xg | 21:51 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/Hs2cXVS https://i.imgur.com/WHCwJyE.png <-- Rt for (overall) variants does not seem to go over 1.5, but jumped from below 1 to maybe around 1.5 or such? | 21:53 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID-19 Portugal: Reproduction Rt based on t_serial = 5.2 days - Album on Imgur | 21:53 |
| de-facto | rahmend[m], N501Y is one of the point mutations probably partly responsible for more efficient transmission and replication https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501 | 21:54 |
| rahmend[m] | ok thanks, I was hoping they just put the virus name like b1351 so it would be easy for me to understand | 21:55 |
| de-facto | imho even more worrisome are https://covariants.org/variants/S.E484 and https://covariants.org/variants/S.H69- | 21:55 |
| de-facto | well yeah rahmend[m] i wish they had a separated E484K for the per country plots, maybe they will adjust for that? | 21:56 |
| rahmend[m] | post spanish flu, why didn't it re-emerge for 100 years? | 21:56 |
| MrtnDk[m] | I'll leave, to free up space on my device. | 21:59 |
| MrtnDk[m] | . | 21:59 |
| MrtnDk[m] | Thanks goes to all of you, who have helped sharing useful information. | 21:59 |
| rahmend[m] | 👋 | 21:59 |
| rahmend[m] | imo i think covid might not defeat the vaccine for like 30+ yrs since spanish flu took 100 to come back | 22:00 |
| dTal | rahmend[m]: H1N1 returned in 1977, less than 50 years later | 22:04 |
| rahmend[m] | ok, not as good, but the vaccine should provide protection for around 40 years then | 22:05 |
| bin_bash | no | 22:08 |
| bin_bash | that doesnt make any sense rahmend[m] | 22:08 |
| Jigsy | We can invent a vaccine for COVID-19 in the span of a year... | 22:08 |
| Jigsy | ...but we still don't have a cure for the common cold... | 22:08 |
| Jigsy | :| | 22:08 |
| rahmend[m] | obviously, I'm a newb, | 22:08 |
| bin_bash | imagine thinking that the common cold was caused by 1 virus | 22:09 |
| Jigsy | bin_bash: It's more of a general observation. | 22:09 |
| rahmend[m] | <bin_bash "that doesnt make any sense rahme"> why doesn't it make sense? | 22:09 |
| bin_bash | Jigsy: it's a false equivalency | 22:09 |
| Jigsy | How? | 22:10 |
| bin_bash | rahmend[m]: because it's yet another false equivalency. First of all, we didn't even develop a vaccine for the 1918 H1N1. We still have H1N1 variants around and we still don't have a universal flu vaccine. The entire world has been working on a vaccine for covid-19, and some of the methods (like mRNA) have never been used before and are looking hopeful for a possible universal flu vaccine, but | 22:11 |
| bin_bash | there is still work needed to be done. Covid and flu and the common cold are not comparable. | 22:11 |
| Jigsy | I never said they were. | 22:11 |
| Jigsy | I just said we don't have a cure for the common cold. | 22:11 |
| bin_bash | which is not at all relevant | 22:11 |
| rahmend[m] | <bin_bash "rahmend: because it's yet anothe"> but afaik we have like ~5 working vaccines for all covid variants | 22:12 |
| bin_bash | rahmend[m]: no | 22:12 |
| rahmend[m] | i thought fauci also said something about the vaccine being upgrable for future variants? | 22:12 |
| bin_bash | idk where you got that from | 22:12 |
| bin_bash | there is hope that some of the existing vaccines can be modified fairly easily but there are new variants now being found regularly, some of which have spike protein mutations which could cause issues. | 22:13 |
| rahmend[m] | https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/dr-fau[...]ts-drugmakers-working-on-boosters.html | 22:13 |
| bin_bash | nobody has a magic crystal ball that shows the variant roadmap and whether vaccines will work | 22:13 |
| rahmend[m] | https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/dr-fauci-says-covid-vaccines-can-be-easily-adapted-to-new-variants-drugmakers-working-on-boosters.html | 22:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Canada confirms 1st case of South African virus variant: Canada on Monday reported its first case of a coronavirus variant that emerged in South Africa that is believed to be more contagious than the original. → https://is.gd/JiUCED | 22:13 |
| rahmend[m] | <bin_bash "nobody has a magic crystal ball "> ok I see | 22:14 |
| rahmend[m] | bin_bash: in your opinion, what do you think the odds are that covid will mutate too much for the current vaccines to work? | 22:15 |
| de-facto | rahmend[m], the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen contains the "recipe" for hijacking an infected cells protein production capabilities in order to produce more virus particles, also containing a recipe for the spike protein (the characteristic "crown" spikes). Thats were the virus particles enter the cell but also where antibodies can dock and prevent it from doing so. | 22:15 |
| bin_bash | rahmend[m]: yes and the vaccines will need to be modified. the existing vaccines don't guarantee protection against every unknown variant | 22:16 |
| bin_bash | there is no way I can answer thaty | 22:16 |
| de-facto | now if a random mutation appears in the recipe for that spike that has the consequence that the structure of the spike protein changes in a form that 1) still allows docking to a cells ACE2 receptors but at the same time 2) antibodies raised against a previous variant (or vaccine) cant dock as efficiently anymore it can be called a (partly) evasive mutant | 22:16 |
| bin_bash | https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/science-and-research/scientific-brief-emerging-variants.html | 22:16 |
| de-facto | the vaccines "steal" the spike protein recipe only (and omit the rest) of the SARS-CoV-2 RNA code and also emply a cells protein production capabilities to produce the spike protein only (hence not a complete virus): this spike protein is exposed at that cells surface hence provokes antibody production against that variant of the spike protein | 22:18 |
| de-facto | so afaik the current generation of vaccines are based on the Wuhan sequence (first variant ever) with two point mutations to stabilize it in the prefusion configuration (prior to docking to a cells ACE2) in order to expose exactly the correct protein surface to the immune system | 22:20 |
| de-facto | now since current variants are also known after being discovered sequence it should be possible to also "steal" their variant of the (slightly mutated) s-protein and make an updated variant of vaccine containing that "new" slightly mutated s-protein recipe in order to train the immune system to that variant too | 22:21 |
| de-facto | afaik the mRNA vaccines employ templates in form of DNA from which the mRNA itself is transcribed, so having not only one variant of such a DNA template (mono-clonal) but a whole variety for all the the currently (known) circulating variants in a (poly-clonal) DNA template should be possible | 22:23 |
| de-facto | rahmend[m], hence in principle nothing should speak against constantly updating such a polyclonal vaccine to update immunity against the newest variants of concern, probably would have to be done with quite a low delay in order to be useful | 22:24 |
| de-facto | yet still for now it seems that current vaccines are still protective enough, i guess its only a matter of time until variants with more escape potential are selected in a partly immune population, because if they could evade that immunity they would have a significant replication advantage | 22:26 |
| rahmend[m] | <de-facto "yet still for now it seems that "> thanks, this was my rough understanding | 22:27 |
| bin_bash | rahmend[m]: but why do you think immunity would last 40 years | 22:27 |
| de-facto | hence it makes sense to do both 1) lower the number of new infections by non-pharmaceutical-interventions (NPIs) as well as 2) increase vaccine production rates and vaccination rates for population to at least minimize the number of viral replications occurring under the (potentially only partial) neutralization from vaccination | 22:27 |
| rahmend[m] | afaik, covid's escape ability currently is less than malaria's abiility | 22:27 |
| rahmend[m] | <bin_bash "rahmend: but why do you think im"> just a guess based on spanish flu | 22:28 |
| de-facto | its a completely different pathogen with completely different properties | 22:28 |
| bin_bash | and that's not even what happened | 22:28 |
| rahmend[m] | i heard uk did very well in increasing vaccine production | 22:28 |
| de-facto | .title https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations | 22:30 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From ourworldindata.org: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations - Statistics and Research - Our World in Data | 22:30 |
| rahmend[m] | why aren't other western countries increasing vaccine production as much as uk has? | 22:31 |
| dTal | de-facto: the current vaccines might work even against variants but shouldn't we be directly targeting the variants as well, as fast as possible, in order to mitigate against further mutations? | 22:31 |
| dTal | As I understand it, individual antibodies don't target the entire spike protein but pieces of it, so that if the protein changes a bit, the antibodies still mostly work | 22:32 |
| de-facto | dTal, yes i think that makes sense, because if our current vaccines would be even more effective against the current (potentially partly evasive) variants they would minimize the number of viral replications on a cellular level for "bruteforcing" new mutations | 22:33 |
| dTal | but the more it changes, the lower the proportion of useful antibodies from the "old" version | 22:33 |
| bin_bash | rahmend[m]: link to the vaccine production info? | 22:34 |
| dTal | I feel like this is a race against the virus, and we need to be proactively chasing the variants, not waiting until there's an "oh shit" variant before thinking about Vaccine 2.0 | 22:34 |
| de-facto | i think so too | 22:34 |
| de-facto | its a race condition basically | 22:34 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>afaik the mRNA vaccines employ templates in form of DNA<< nope, they use modified messengerRNA | 22:34 |
| dTal | I believe Moderna has already started on exactly this | 22:35 |
| rahmend[m] | <dTal "I feel like this is a race again"> I had no idea that they weren't already doing this :O | 22:35 |
| rahmend[m] | bin_bash: 1 min | 22:35 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, every RNA is made from DNA at some point a process called transcription | 22:35 |
| dTal | for the SA variant | 22:35 |
| de-facto | i mean the DNA templates used at production site, no DNA is in the final product of course | 22:35 |
| de-facto | for those mRNA vaccines | 22:36 |
| dTal | I would have thought that adapting a process line for a new covid variant should be incredibly easy | 22:36 |
| dTal | surely it's just a matter of swapping out the relevant DNA strand | 22:37 |
| de-facto | iirc it was said to be like 6 weeks or such | 22:37 |
| rahmend[m] | bin_bash: https://www.ft.com/content/8b48a853-5b14-4378-91d4-17026fa15472 | 22:37 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | aaah you meant during production. Well, I was thinking about what's in the vaccine | 22:37 |
| rahmend[m] | In graphics: the UK vaccine supply chain | 22:37 |
| rahmend[m] | title | 22:37 |
| dTal | the real question is are we going to be insistent on super-rigorous testing for each itty-bitty change? | 22:37 |
| de-facto | well plus the production, plus the approval, plus the distribution, plus the vaccination campaign | 22:37 |
| de-facto | UK does that very well apparently | 22:38 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | dTal: actually it's just a matter of replacing a file, literally. So the DNA printer prints the new strand | 22:38 |
| de-facto | representative sequencing i mean | 22:38 |
| rahmend[m] | I heard a number of countries have had fewer births due to covid. But apparently some have had the usual birth rate? Any idea why a country would have their usual birth rate during covid? | 22:39 |
| de-facto | .title https://covidcg.org/?tab=global_sequencing | 22:39 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From covidcg.org: COVID CG | 22:39 |
| dTal | DocScrutinizer05: Why did it take so long to develop the vaccine to begin with then? | 22:39 |
| dTal | I guess there must be some "hard" step, like isolating which part of the DNA strand is the spike protein | 22:40 |
| rahmend[m] | <dTal "DocScrutinizer05: Why did it tak"> afaik I thought the safety testing was the part that takes a long time | 22:41 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | the longest part were the studies | 22:41 |
| bin_bash | looks like the moderna vaccine isnt even approved in the UK? | 22:41 |
| bin_bash | and pfizer is imported from belgium | 22:41 |
| dTal | otherwise this would appear to be a general purpose vaccine method | 22:41 |
| dTal | which is quite a thing | 22:41 |
| de-facto | i think it was super quick, how long did they need for their first variants? 1-2 month or such? | 22:41 |
| bin_bash | oh wait the moderna one is approved | 22:41 |
| de-facto | very very impressive actually | 22:41 |
| bin_bash | but no info on where it's produced, ah thats what threw me | 22:42 |
| dTal | one wonders if the future solution to global pandemics is simply to spread small-scale vaccine manufacturing equipment all around the world, and for each new virus, publish its sequence on the internet | 22:42 |
| dTal | 6 weeks later everyone in the world is vaccinated | 22:42 |
| rahmend[m] | <DocScrutinizer05 "the longest part were the studie"> which part about the studies? like the effectiveness? | 22:42 |
| de-facto | but they could build it ontop of already existing technology, the mRNA technology was developed for decades as well as other vaccines against SARS-CoV-1 (was that ever completed?) and MERS-CoV | 22:42 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | the 3rd part | 22:43 |
| de-facto | also the LipidNanoParticles delivery platform was developed before already | 22:43 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | aka phase3 | 22:43 |
| de-facto | or the viral vecotr ones etc | 22:43 |
| de-facto | or the viral vector ones etc | 22:43 |
| rahmend[m] | <dTal "6 weeks later everyone in the wo"> surely safety tests would take longer than 6 weeks? | 22:43 |
| de-facto | dTal, yeah that would be awesome, yet the question really is, what is the safety from those sequences? like they could encode almost anything (as can a computer program) hence have very much different properties (and safety profiles) | 22:44 |
| dTal | I'm not clear on the purpose of safety tests here, if the general mechanism is shown to be sound and the proteins in question are always from a virus which is strictly worse than a vaccine | 22:45 |
| dTal | wait so could you make an mRNA "vaccine" that coded for pGLO and you'd start to glow in the dark | 22:45 |
| de-facto | but having small "general purpose" production factories decentralized and distributed across the population would be an excellent idea indeed | 22:46 |
| de-facto | as we can see right now, the slowdown is due to lack of industrial cap and infrastructure | 22:46 |
| rahmend[m] | <de-facto "but having small "general purpos"> I would sign a petition for this | 22:46 |
| dTal | unforunately it's not in monied interests, especially not the vaccine manufacturers | 22:46 |
| bin_bash | de-facto: idk the concern about that is quality control and production requirements | 22:47 |
| bin_bash | maybe it would be good for tiny countries though if they dont care about that | 22:47 |
| dTal | I mean you do have to weigh any safety concerns against "dealy virus runs rampant across the world" | 22:47 |
| de-facto | just as one standpoint for biosecurity it would be very smart to have such an infrastructure ready, so vaccination really could be done as fast as information itself spreads (with mandatory safety tests of course) | 22:47 |
| bin_bash | i think the production of medical products is often hugely underappreciated | 22:47 |
| bin_bash | like even for basic eye drops | 22:48 |
| bin_bash | idk i just dont see that being practical in the current world | 22:48 |
| de-facto | bin_bash, yes of course, but if it was build up without time pressure in advance safety against problems from *production* errors could be prevented | 22:48 |
| bin_bash | maybe | 22:49 |
| bin_bash | ISO-9001 is a lot | 22:49 |
| de-facto | enough production capacity for the local population with enough (competent) employees to ensure quality (and ofc as much fully automated as possible) | 22:49 |
| bin_bash | yeah i just think getting enough competent employees and setting up competent labs would be fairly difficult | 22:50 |
| de-facto | yes hence we need to start early and do it right in every detail | 22:50 |
| bin_bash | plus there would need to be more regulatory agencies in place, and something figured out about recouping r&d, etc | 22:50 |
| bin_bash | it seems like a pipe dream | 22:51 |
| de-facto | so in cases its needed only the necessary piece of information (in form of the correct and tested sequence) would be required | 22:52 |
| de-facto | actually with current knowledge it has to be done like that | 22:53 |
| de-facto | and btw the mRNA technology got much more potential than only vaccinations, afaik it was developed for a new approach against cancer | 22:54 |
| de-facto | this is much more challenging because every such cancer is different, but in general its a very very powerful technology to give the body the right piece of *information* to help itself by its own immune system | 22:55 |
| de-facto | afaik BioNTech just created a therapy against MS based on mRNA | 22:56 |
| de-facto | i think this a whole new branch of (individualized) medicine, one that is very specifically targeted at the core of a problem (hence probably also got much less collateral damage) if only the (individual) correct sequence can be derived | 22:57 |
| bin_bash | it's extremely promising | 22:57 |
| bin_bash | gene therapy has been growing a lot and it's fantastic | 22:58 |
| de-facto | so maybe it will be like a medical facility will do some sort of sequencing to give a company a "individual problem description" and that company can offer an individualized sequence of mRNA to address that specific problem and sell it as "piece of information" over the internet | 22:58 |
| de-facto | then it could be "printed out" and delivered in form of mRNA to have the (potentially) most efficient (immuno) therapy for that individual patient | 22:59 |
| de-facto | well that is the very far future, but quite thinkable scenario id assume | 23:00 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >><dTal> one wonders if the future solution to global pandemics is simply to spread small-scale vaccine manufacturing equipment all around the world<< that's actually a very very smart idea. I guess you could keep the lipid system on stock in freezer and simply print the vaccine "directly from DNA-printer", maybe with a lab scale PCR after that, to multiply, if the printer isn't performing enough | 23:00 |
| de-facto | technically all possible already afaik | 23:01 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>vaccines against SARS-CoV-1 (was that ever completed?)<< I think technically completed but never phase3, maybe not even phase1/2 | 23:02 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>wait so could you make an mRNA "vaccine" that coded for pGLO and you'd start to glow in the dark<< unclear to me right now, but easy to evaluate once I/you read up about exact mechanism of that glow thing and if it matches RNA protein production in cell, then yes, absolutely possible | 23:04 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | not in every cell though, AIUI the genuine glow thing is a DNA modification | 23:05 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | and obviously not permanent, for same reasons | 23:07 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Single Dose Vaccination in Healthcare Workers Previously Infected with SARS-CoV-2 (81 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.30.21250843v1 | https://redd.it/la6th9 | 23:09 |
| dTal | but good enough for a night out clubbing | 23:09 |
| dTal | awesome | 23:09 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | you *could* probably encode production of proteins though that cause BSE, or are maybe similar to rizin | 23:10 |
| dTal | the future is... bright | 23:10 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +67 deaths (now 9448) since 22 hours ago | 23:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Atlantic: The Brazil Variant Is Exposing the World's Vulnerability: Even in a year of horrendous suffering, what is unfolding in Brazil stands out. In the rainforest city of Manaus, home to 2 million people, bodies are reportedly being dropped into mass graves as quickly as they can be dug. Hospitals have run out of oxygen, and people with [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/Q6Dlyw | 23:11 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | or would work similar to novitschok | 23:11 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | it's a temporary abuse of a few body cells to produce basically whatever protein you like. Now go figure what proteins are controlling in your body :-o | 23:12 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, i dont think a vaccine could make you glow in the dark, because even if it would produce a glowing antigen the immune response against that probably would not glow in the dark :) | 23:21 |
| de-facto | but maybe it could do the opposite: remove the possibility to ever glow in the dark even if provided with the correct protein (antigen) | 23:21 |
| CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Genetically predicted serum vitamin D and COVID-19: a Mendelian randomization study (83 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.29.21250759v1 | https://redd.it/la6jf0 | 23:21 |
| de-facto | like currently the mRNA encoding the s-protein probably would decay in hours or days and the immune response would remove the produced antigen also quite quickly (idk exact timing for that one, maybe until adverse reactions decayed or such?) | 23:23 |
| de-facto | then after some time nothing from the mRNA or the original antigen is left over in the body, only the "memory" in form of the immunologic fingerprint | 23:24 |
| de-facto | i think its quite important to put some emphasis on that, because some anti-vaccination people are in fear their genetic information could be changed, that clearly is not the case with the mRNA vaccines | 23:26 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | yep, like I said above. Not permanently since mRNA doesn't alter the cell DNA | 23:28 |
| LjL | 9,99Brainstorm:99,99 New99,99 from EuroNews:99,99 (news):99,99 'Wholly unnecessary': Criticism mounts on Brussels over vaccine furore → https://is.gd/XLVDwE | 23:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: One Case, Total Lockdown: Australia’s Lessons for a Pandemic World → https://is.gd/leNT2a | 23:36 |
| Arsanerit | I think epigenetics is weird, but I'm not a biologist. | 23:39 |
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