DocScrutinizer05 | Arsanerit: how does epigenetics come in ? | 00:00 |
---|---|---|
Arsanerit | DocScrutinizer05: In me not understanding it either. | 00:01 |
Arsanerit | mRNA does not change ones DNA but epigenetics does appear to affect descendents based on what happens during life of ancestors, such as that children and grandchildren of women pregnant during Dutch famine 1944/1945 are more likely to be obese than others; I have no clue if this has anything to do with mRNA not altering DNA. | 00:03 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: COVID-19 rarely spreads through surfaces. So why are we still deep cleaning? (89 votes) | https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00251-4 | https://redd.it/laeo92 | 00:04 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: 1st vaccine doses arrive in South Africa amid variant concerns → https://is.gd/ALU3bH | 00:13 |
Brainstorm | New from The Lancet (Online): [Correspondence] COVID-19 vaccine research and the trouble with clinical equipoise: More than 1·8 million lives have been lost due to COVID-19. Two frontrunner vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech promise some relief, with data suggesting 95% efficacy,1 and have been granted emergency use authorisations in several countries. → https://is.gd/0OlQPF | 00:38 |
DocScrutinizer05 | Arsanerit: yeah, epigenetics are weird, all that "intelligence" based on methylization. Anyway unrelated to mRNA | 00:47 |
Brainstorm | New preprint: Aptamers for Detection and Diagnostics (ADD) is a proposed mobile app acquiring optical data from conjugated quantum nanodots to identify molecules indicating presence of SARS-CoV-2 virus: Why public health and healthcare need smartphone sensors as a platform for early detection and prevention by Shoumen Datta et al, made available as preprint on 2021-02-01 at [... want %more?] | 01:04 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: OSU genetic sequencing detects mutant strains of COVID-19 in multiple Oregon locations → https://is.gd/0aHoJ5 | 01:27 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Guernsey: +46 cases (now 585) since a day ago — France: +11791 cases (now 3.2 million), +455 deaths (now 76512) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +3452 cases (now 986871), +33 deaths (now 14067) since 23 hours ago — Switzerland: +36 deaths (now 9449) since 9 hours ago | 01:29 |
LjL | bin_bash, ping in case you're interested... above CoronaBot posted something about fomite transmission. i gave it a read, it doesn't mention the variants (honestly i don't think it has been studied at all wrt the variants), but it's on the general subject | 01:38 |
bin_bash | LjL: thanks | 01:43 |
bin_bash | LjL: this reads similarly to a commentary I read in a journal (the lancet maybe?) a few months ago about how fomite transmission was exaggerated and the lab experiments were in perfect conditions | 01:45 |
LjL | bin_bash, it hasn't convinced me to stop sanitizing things (or my hands), though :P | 01:46 |
LjL | i still stand by the cautionary principle... they may also say that a mask outdoors doesn't help much because by far the majority of infections happen indoors. well, is that really true? what if it's very biased by the fact that those are the infections they can *spot*, and others remain unclear? | 01:46 |
LjL | the issue is moot here, since wearing a mask is mandatory outdoors and indoors, so i would simply be violating the law if i didn't wear it. but... i'd wear it anyway | 01:47 |
bin_bash | same, i still wipe everything down | 01:47 |
bin_bash | idc if it makes me paranoid | 01:47 |
bin_bash | that's what ive wondered too... re: infections they spot | 01:48 |
bin_bash | idk how well contact tracing has worked there, but like there are plenty of ways people get infected and it's not traced to any specific thing | 01:48 |
bin_bash | that university of wisconsin study is interesting | 01:48 |
bin_bash | but yeah... unethical to do with this virus | 01:49 |
bin_bash | what about death row inmates who agree to it | 01:49 |
bin_bash | is that still unethical? | 01:49 |
bin_bash | regarding the new variants, if they do bind to cells more easily, it could mean that fomite transmission is more likely, albeit still small in comparison | 01:51 |
LjL | bin_bash, well, let's say fomite transmission is unlikely because it's very rare that you get enough virus concentration to actually trigger an infection, while it's much easier if someone spits droplets at you | 01:53 |
LjL | in that case, a variant that simply lowers the minimum necessary virus concentration could make fomite transmission comparatively more common | 01:54 |
LjL | (i know that "virus concentration" or "viral load" isn't an on/off thing, it's probabilities, but still, it's often treated as a threshold for convenience) | 01:54 |
bin_bash | LjL: yep that's my thought process on it as well | 01:57 |
bin_bash | and you have idiotic people around here wearing no maks or cloth masks with vents or the mask under their nose | 01:57 |
LjL | not just there, rest assured | 01:58 |
LjL | "mask under nose" seems to be a worldwide phenomenon | 01:58 |
bin_bash | yeah =. | 01:58 |
bin_bash | =/ | 01:58 |
bin_bash | or constantly pulling it up or adjusting it | 01:58 |
bin_bash | cuz it doesnt fit | 01:59 |
bin_bash | *sigh* | 01:59 |
DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy;Germany&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&miscType=Reff&leftTrim=300&miscPeriod=7&legacy=no yeah, why would anybody worry with ending lockdown in Italy :-S | 02:03 |
Butterfly^ | https://www.reddit.com/r/Rakingthemuck/ | 02:07 |
LjL | it's as if every time we remove every memory of past events | 02:07 |
LjL | no more Codogno, no more Bergamo, no more anything | 02:07 |
LjL | they just tell us to "still be careful, even though the lockdown is ended" - yeah right | 02:07 |
LjL | that's totally the message people will get | 02:08 |
DocScrutinizer05 | /o\ | 02:08 |
LjL | Butterfly^, hmm? | 02:08 |
DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: I dunn'o maybe your public health offices' t&c teams do a much much better job than ours? then it's maybe still ok? (not really!) | 02:11 |
LjL | DocScrutinizer05, i've seen footage of people rushing to get their drink even *before* the restrictions were officially lifted (i.e. last sunday) | 02:13 |
LjL | crowds, you know | 02:13 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Early U.S. data indicates Black and Hispanic Americans lagging in COVID-19 vaccinations → https://is.gd/sgYeR6 | 02:14 |
LjL | my mom was mad today because she heard someone... not sure if on TV or on her Facebook (sigh) saying "oh at least I'll get to drink my espresso at the cafe again, finally!" | 02:15 |
LjL | because clearly that's the important thing, being able to drink the espresso that this person was drinking *anyway*, just, in the cafe instead of outside | 02:15 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Botswana: +1445 cases (now 22738), +14 deaths (now 148) since 4 days ago | 02:19 |
DocScrutinizer05 | *headdesk* | 02:22 |
DocScrutinizer05 | so much, btw, for de-facto's suggested worldwide coordination | 02:24 |
DocScrutinizer05 | we can't even coordinate a 17 federal states here | 02:24 |
DocScrutinizer05 | and EU coordination is a laugh, or really a cry | 02:25 |
LjL | we can't even... govern | 02:25 |
LjL | tomorrow we should, theoretically, get some finalization on whether we go to elections, or some strange other government forms | 02:25 |
LjL | i'm not sure right now the government even *could* suspend the lockdown lifting | 02:26 |
DocScrutinizer05 | it's upty+1th gvmnt | 02:26 |
LjL | after a PM resigns, the rule is that the government can only "handle matters of ordinary administration" | 02:26 |
LjL | DocScrutinizer05, it'd be the third government that Conte leads, if Conte still leads it | 02:26 |
LjL | it's called "Conte ter" here becuse ter means "thrice" in Latin and we love Latin when we have nothing else left to love | 02:27 |
DocScrutinizer05 | v.21ter | 02:28 |
LjL | let's call it v.21ter-prealpha for now, tomorrow we'll see | 02:28 |
DocScrutinizer05 | :-) took a while but I finally learned it back when modems were a thing | 02:28 |
DocScrutinizer05 | or was it V.27ter? | 02:29 |
LjL | google tells me v.27ter | 02:29 |
LjL | but it was current well before i knew what a modem was :P | 02:29 |
DocScrutinizer05 | ITU-T Rec. V.27 ter (10/84) 4800/2400 bits per second modem ... yup | 02:31 |
LjL | i got on the internet with a 33.6kbps modem so definitely before my time | 02:32 |
DocScrutinizer05 | there was also V.32bis | 02:32 |
DocScrutinizer05 | and V.34bis | 02:33 |
DocScrutinizer05 | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ITU-T_V-series_recommendations | 02:33 |
DocScrutinizer05 | BFC what V.32terbo was supposed to mean | 02:34 |
DocScrutinizer05 | NFC even | 02:34 |
LjL | unlike ter, terbo is definitely not Latin for anything! | 02:36 |
dTal | I bought my first ever USB stick in 2006. It cost 80 dollars and held 4 gigabytes. | 03:07 |
dTal | This week, I spent 90 GBP on a microSD card. It holds 512GB. | 03:08 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Osaka accidentally mails out funeral service ads to people infected with coronavirus. → https://is.gd/52S0s7 | 03:14 |
de-facto | roughtly doubes every 14 months, hence you get a TB for 90 GBP in spring 2022 | 03:19 |
dTal | Fun fact, a sloth carrying a 1Tb microSD card has more bandwidth than LjL's 33.6 kbps modem | 03:21 |
LjL | but a lot longer roundtrip! | 03:21 |
dTal | Yeah the ping is terrible | 03:22 |
LjL | also, if you make it a pangolin, you will see why the modem is preferable | 03:22 |
dTal | Crazy to think you could smuggle dozens of terabytes in the soles of your shoes | 03:24 |
dTal | Or even a terabyte under your tongue | 03:24 |
LjL | and here is me, who was just pondering buying a 32GB microSD card -.- | 03:26 |
dTal | pondering? It's like 7 euros man | 03:27 |
dTal | just do it | 03:27 |
LjL | you wouldn't know how long i can ponder 7 euros | 03:28 |
LjL | anyway my conclusion was "no" because it's for this bluetooth speaker that accepts an SD card it can play music from, but it doesn't remember what it was playing after you turn it off, and it's a chore to change tracks, so i'd be listening to the same song all the time | 03:28 |
dTal | There are SD cards with wifi | 03:31 |
dTal | pretty expensive though | 03:31 |
dTal | and kind of silly when... it's a bluetooth speaker | 03:31 |
dTal | also I think those wifi sd cards only support retrieving files, not writing them | 03:32 |
dTal | since they're for camera | 03:32 |
dTal | s | 03:32 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +39 deaths (now 9452) since 12 hours ago | 03:33 |
LjL | dTal, i have one of those, actually it's a microSD card *adapter* that is SD-sized, so you can upgrade the card in it. it's actually running a Linux system with a 2.something kernel that you can break into, so you can do pretty much what you like | 03:43 |
LjL | dTal, i totally didn't think it could be possible to change the firmware permanently into something that scans the SD card for anything that looks like login or credit card details, and send it to the first open WiFI AP it finds, and then resell those hacked cards | 03:44 |
LjL | it's pretty neat though anyway, a tiny Linux computer in an SD card, with WiFi | 03:46 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: U.S. Hits Milestone in Pandemic With More Vaccinated Than Cases (10338 votes) | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-01/u-s-hits-milestone-in-pandemic-with-more-vaccinated-than-cases | https://redd.it/lagf3k | 03:47 |
dTal | LjL: oh that's neat | 03:54 |
ryouma | moldex n95 straps are breaking when i put on the mask. what is a good simple solution for this? not looking for banter. | 04:06 |
bin_bash | that does not sound good or normal... | 04:08 |
bin_bash | are the straps brittle? | 04:08 |
bin_bash | are the masks within their expiration date? | 04:08 |
ryouma | idk about expiration date. i go tthem a year ago or so. maybe they are just oxidized rubber. or maybe the searing heat from the summer made the straps go bad. | 04:10 |
ryouma | i got the from a reputable looking safety supply company | 04:10 |
bin_bash | it doesn't sound like they would work properly if the straps are breaking. | 04:10 |
bin_bash | I'd contact the manufacturer with the part and lot number to find out | 04:10 |
ryouma | rigtht, so i need to reapair the straps. i looked online and found only https://www.quora.com/How-do-you-fix-an-N95-mask-strap which seems a bit complex for me. | 04:11 |
bin_bash | no, i mean the filters may not work | 04:11 |
bin_bash | you should not use them. | 04:11 |
bin_bash | if they've been exposed to such extreme heat that the rubber is brittle and oxidized, the filter is not going to be effective either. | 04:12 |
ryouma | my quick search online suggested that breaking rubber straps are normal. i do know that rubber bands that hold broccoli together do get brittle (they seem to call it dry rot online). so it i s highly plausible to me that the masks are ok but thhe straps are not. | 04:15 |
bin_bash | I would definitely not expect that to be normal... | 04:15 |
ryouma | i have no phone. i have asked my gf to call moldex. i doubt she will. | 04:16 |
bin_bash | where did you see that it's normal? | 04:16 |
ryouma | well nobody said so explicitly | 04:16 |
bin_bash | It doesn't sound normal to me, it sounds like the material has degraded. | 04:16 |
ryouma | you can look at the link above or so | 04:17 |
ryouma | the rubber has yes | 04:17 |
bin_bash | Quora is not trustworthy | 04:17 |
bin_bash | if the rubber has, then the filter likely has as well. | 04:17 |
bin_bash | They have expiration dates for a reason. | 04:17 |
ryouma | do you have a reasoning for why the filter also is bad | 04:18 |
ryouma | or source | 04:18 |
ryouma | not a challenge just a question | 04:18 |
bin_bash | just experience with masks. if the straps are breaking then the plastic and rubber is likely breaking down in other palces as well | 04:19 |
bin_bash | it's why you can't sell used car seats and why they expire | 04:19 |
ryouma | here is one https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/volunteers-to-repair-hundreds-of-thousands-of-defective-n95-masks-for-san-diego-health-care-workers/2296045/ | 04:19 |
ryouma | or this "The downside is that the rubber straps reduce their elasticity and are easy to break after long-term storage—around a year or longer. I use these often enough for dusty chores (like insulating attic or sanding) that they don’t get brittle before they’re consumed." | 04:20 |
ryouma | --- https://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/reviews/B000EZUOZM | 04:20 |
bin_bash | hm interesting so even though they're expired and are breaking they're still approved as a tentative "better than nothing" measure | 04:21 |
bin_bash | that's bizarrwe | 04:21 |
bin_bash | bizarre* | 04:21 |
ryouma | "Just be careful with the rubber straps - they may break when donning and removing the masks if they're pulled too much." same page | 04:21 |
bin_bash | i guess jsut use rubber bands instead | 04:21 |
ryouma | so it does seem normal for moldex at least | 04:21 |
bin_bash | yeah i guess theyre not made well | 04:22 |
ryouma | i am asking for simpler instructions than the quora. i don't know how to attach rubber bads where to get etc. | 04:22 |
bin_bash | youd think they could sit for more than the year | 04:22 |
bin_bash | well what does the mask look like | 04:22 |
bin_bash | moldex makes a lot of different ones | 04:22 |
ryouma | looks just like the image on the amazon page | 04:23 |
ryouma | i did not check model number as i cannot be vertical and cannot turn ights on either | 04:23 |
bin_bash | ah didnt see that link | 04:23 |
bin_bash | just tue rubber bands through the slots like in the nbc article | 04:24 |
bin_bash | tie* | 04:24 |
bin_bash | it's like a staple right | 04:24 |
bin_bash | just slip a rubber band through | 04:24 |
ryouma | wait a second. this model is actually available. i can't tell if it | 04:25 |
ryouma | 's 2 per pack or 10 but this is amazing and a reaonsable price | 04:25 |
ryouma | the word just is not as straighforward for me as it is for you i think | 04:25 |
bin_bash | > Prioritized for organizations on the front lines responding to COVID-19. | 04:25 |
ryouma | it says so on page? | 04:26 |
bin_bash | ye | 04:26 |
bin_bash | you can buy them from amazon marketplace | 04:26 |
ryouma | i would not know what kind of staple, where to get, what to do to remove old, etc. other places said stapling does not work. that is why "just do A" is not as starigtforward for me. | 04:27 |
bin_bash | $39 from one seller $42 from another | 04:27 |
bin_bash | no i dont think you would remove the staple | 04:27 |
bin_bash | in the nbc article they were able to tie a rubber band around | 04:27 |
bin_bash | you should take the same appraoch | 04:27 |
bin_bash | re-stapling is not a good solution | 04:27 |
ryouma | which bands, what lengths where get | 04:29 |
Brainstorm | Updates for France: +8069 cases (now 3.2 million) since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +19268 cases (now 3.8 million), +409 deaths (now 106567) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +3324 cases (now 987668), +30 deaths (now 14073) since 23 hours ago | 04:29 |
ryouma | i can't tgell from article what you mean | 04:29 |
bin_bash | ryouma: you have to try it and see | 04:29 |
ryouma | it is above my ability atm. | 04:29 |
ryouma | then | 04:29 |
ryouma | and my gf's also as she just doesn't have that kind of ability | 04:30 |
bin_bash | you cant like push string through or rubber through? | 04:30 |
ryouma | a hole? maybe if ther eis one. there isn't. but you are assuming i can choose and order and know what to get and get right length and so on. string is not going to hold it on | 04:31 |
pugusas | https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341585988/figure/fig1/AS:894156582973441@1590194950469/A-C-demonstrate-the-way-that-the-three-rubber-bands-are-knotted-together-D-G.jpg | 04:32 |
bin_bash | ryouma: look at how the rubber bands are connected. | 04:33 |
bin_bash | then connect new rubber bands the same way or using string | 04:33 |
bin_bash | you should be able to just slide it under the staple or whatever it is that's connecting the old one | 04:33 |
LjL | when i bought a 3M mask recently i was surprised at how, despite the mask itself seeming good quality and having a good fit, the rubber band just feel like rubbish. the very first FFP2 mask i got, back in February, for €13 which was whatever the pharmacy could get a hold of, was much better in that respect: it had an elastic bad that wasn't rubber, and that went all around the mask (with holes it could move freely in) | 04:36 |
LjL | instead with this 3M it feels like i'm breaking the rubber bands just to stretch them enough to get them on the back of my head, and if i'm not careful i end up hurting myself (the bands are attached with staples, at that) | 04:36 |
ryouma | yeah it is like htat | 04:40 |
ryouma | idk if it is rubber or not | 04:40 |
bin_bash | LjL: that's weird, my 3M masks are not like that at all | 04:40 |
bin_bash | are you sure theyre not counterfeit? | 04:40 |
ryouma | there is likely no place to "just" push a rubber band through as the staples are ticghtly holding hte old ones. they do not always break by pulling out from uderneat a staple and if the did the staple would not hold them. i could maybe tie a knowt. but again there is likely no place to push anything through anything. | 04:41 |
bin_bash | ryouma: i dnt know then, sorry. someone else may have an idea | 04:41 |
bin_bash | i understand what you mean though now | 04:41 |
bin_bash | i thought maybe you could pull the old one out and push new string or something under | 04:42 |
LjL | bin_bash: I'm almost positive it's not counterfeit. But it's made in the UK, maybe the US ones are different | 04:43 |
bin_bash | yeah could be | 04:43 |
bin_bash | mine has straps like this: https://multimedia.3m.com/mws/media/735026F/3mtm-particulate-respirator-8210-n95.jpg | 04:44 |
ryouma | pugusas: thanks. a miracle occurs between c and d for me. maybe something under nose and chin or something but that would not work here as mask is convex and i woul dhave to hold it on with something. perhaps tape buit then that would use up the surface. | 04:44 |
bin_bash | theyre cloth | 04:44 |
bin_bash | better image https://images.homedepot-static.com/productImages/47c58d53-6935-4ece-bea1-80f7d8ece219/svn/white-3m-face-masks-8210ph20-dc-64_1000.jpg | 04:44 |
pugusas | ryouma: actually I've tried it works fine | 04:44 |
LjL | bin_bash: you can see the bands and the staples here https://pic.infini.fr/gNt8DSwA/dOpe7QSM | 04:44 |
ryouma | pugusas: i don't get it, sorry just don't undersatnd | 04:44 |
pugusas | oh sorry, didn't read your conversation full | 04:45 |
bin_bash | interesting LjL | 04:45 |
bin_bash | it's a different style | 04:45 |
pugusas | it works on KN95, and surgical | 04:45 |
ryouma | then what keeps the straps from pulling out? 20:44 <bin_bash> better image https://images.homedepot-static.com/productImages/47c58d53-6935-4ece-bea1-80f7d8ece219/svn/white-3m-face-masks-8210ph20-dc-64_1000.jpg | 04:45 |
bin_bash | ryouma: i dont understand the question | 04:45 |
ryouma | "just" push the elastic throuhg then put on head. elastic pulls ou. no? | 04:46 |
bin_bash | no | 04:46 |
LjL | bin_bash: hmm I see, quite completely different style. I would say my style looks better, except for the bands (but you can't really see that when it's folded) | 04:47 |
bin_bash | theyre atached | 04:47 |
bin_bash | idk im not worried about how it looks lol | 04:47 |
LjL | I didn't mean just for the looks | 04:47 |
LjL | Yours is of the "circle you slap on your face" kind, just with the metal strip for the nose | 04:47 |
LjL | Mine has two folds that go under your chin and over your nose, and the one around the nose has some foam type material to form a better fit, plus, there is a layer of cloth(?) Inside that is probably meant to protect the actual filter from your moisture | 04:49 |
bin_bash | it doesn't just slap on, if it's fitted properly it seals | 04:49 |
bin_bash | but yeah it's meant for construction and mold removal not medical | 04:51 |
LjL | bin_bash: https://pic.infini.fr/EuWsJUK0/TZ1Obv8Y not sure if this gives a rough idea... Best I could do without touching it too much | 04:52 |
bin_bash | nice | 04:52 |
bin_bash | yeah i see what you mean, better coverage | 04:52 |
bin_bash | i have one of these https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/81B81dsL1FL._SL1500_.jpg | 04:53 |
bin_bash | i dont use it though. the filters are precious | 04:53 |
bin_bash | i guess now with super covid it's probably a good idea when i have to go to the pharmacy | 04:54 |
ryouma | "theyre attaqched" i can't figure out what you mean | 04:54 |
LjL | But with the fit it gives, it *almost immediately* feels wet inside. Unless I just have a particular wet breath I guess its the same for everyone :p so compared to the cheap (and I suspect useless) Chinese KN95, this immediately let's you understand what having a valve is about - regardless of its merits or demerits during a pandemic. But hopefully this inside layer it has keeps the filter from getting wet and hence useless too quickly... | 04:55 |
bin_bash | ew thats not fun | 04:55 |
bin_bash | the one i have doesnt feel instantly wet inside | 04:55 |
bin_bash | but not as much of it is actually touching my face | 04:56 |
bin_bash | like, the inside of the mask i mean | 04:56 |
LjL | bin_bash: yeah that respirator has a valve. It wouldn't be allowed in some places here, and frowned upon in others. But I'm thinking of getting one anyway mostly because of the covid variants too... I don't really know what to edpevt | 04:56 |
bin_bash | ryouma: the straps are glued together to themselves | 04:56 |
LjL | Expect | 04:56 |
bin_bash | LjL: tbh i would wear a medical-style mask over it if it does have a valve | 04:56 |
bin_bash | like if i wore my half face respirator i'd wear a surgical mask over it | 04:57 |
ryouma | then your suggestion of just pushing through is not something i understand. they are not glued. i would hafve to know what ikind of glue. etc. | 04:57 |
bin_bash | ryouma: idk what youre tlaking about | 04:57 |
ryouma | ok nm | 04:57 |
ryouma | i am in a lot of pai from typig | 04:57 |
bin_bash | are we talking about the mask i showed you that i have or your mask? | 04:57 |
bin_bash | im sorry :( | 04:57 |
LjL | %cases myanmar | 05:06 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In Myanmar, there have been 140354 confirmed cases (0.3% of the population) and 3138 deaths (2.2% of cases) as of 2 hours ago. 2.4 million tests were performed (5.8% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Myanmar for time series data. | 05:06 |
LjL | mostly COVID-safe like most of SE Asia | 05:06 |
LjL | but also, currently experiencing a coup | 05:06 |
bin_bash | i hope you feel beter ryouma <3 | 05:06 |
bin_bash | LjL: yeah it's so surreal | 05:07 |
LjL | i do get the feeling there's "something we're missing" | 05:07 |
LjL | they may use masks more, comply with lockdowns more, have harder lockdowns in the first place, etc | 05:07 |
LjL | but... i don't know | 05:07 |
bin_bash | yeah | 05:08 |
bin_bash | or may not have a lot of data or a combination of all of it | 05:08 |
LjL | the amount of tests done shows a ratio that is better (i.e. lower) than italy manages | 05:08 |
LjL | although italy just started cheating by including antigen tests among "tests", while it previously only included PCR | 05:09 |
LjL | so the ratio suddenly went down | 05:09 |
LjL | %cases italy | 05:09 |
Brainstorm | LjL: In Italy, there have been 2.6 million confirmed cases (4.3% of the population) and 88845 deaths (3.5% of cases) as of 9 hours ago. 32.8 million tests were performed (7.8% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.9% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 4.2% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 05:09 |
bin_bash | %cases USA | 05:13 |
Brainstorm | bin_bash: In United States, there have been 26.6 million confirmed cases (8.1% of the population) and 448260 deaths (1.7% of cases) as of 44 minutes ago. 313.9 million tests were performed (8.5% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.6% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 3.9% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20States for time series data. | 05:13 |
spybert | Those numbers look good when compared to the US | 05:13 |
bin_bash | spybert: the deaths dont | 05:14 |
ryouma | asia hypotheses might also include different testing and genes | 05:14 |
ryouma | was genes ruled out? | 05:14 |
spybert | bin_bash: No, because they occured in the early stages when ICUs were swamped, like in NY | 05:14 |
bin_bash | spybert: that doesn't make it better | 05:15 |
spybert | bin_bash: We had more spare ICU capacity per capita so wecould keep the deaths down, also maybe different age profiles of the population in the 2 coutries. Not sure about that though. | 05:16 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Coronavirus doctor's diary: We're getting self-harming 10-year-olds in A&E → https://is.gd/dSQiIg | 05:17 |
bin_bash | spybert: sure im just saying that the 3.5% is worse. that's all | 05:17 |
LjL | spybert, ICU have nearly been swamped again, and when the variants grow, i bet they definitely will. just yesterday all regions went out of lockdown | 05:17 |
LjL | people rushing to bars and pubs immediately | 05:18 |
LjL | ryouma, probably not very easy to rule out genes without doing "controlled exposure" experiments (which are largely unethical except if you are the UK) | 05:18 |
LjL | spybert, we definitely have... well, had? a higher life expectancy than the US | 05:19 |
LjL | bin_bash, this is what i'm tempted to buy https://www.amazon.co.uk/GVS-Technology-SPR299-Elipse-Respiratore-elasticizzati/dp/B004YVYBX8/ the price is reasonable, though some people (by no means all) complain 1) it has a poor fit 2) it smells like plastic 3) some parts are fragile | 05:20 |
LjL | but i'm still not sure what the use case for it is except "total emergency if the variants get out of control and i stop caring about valve or no valve" | 05:21 |
LjL | because other than that, i probably can't go to many places without that thing raising issues | 05:21 |
spybert | LjL: I've got an interesting story about vaccine acceptance amoung healthcare workers. My wife, a nurse, just got out of the hospital after getting a c-section. One of the nurses taking care of here was a Trump conspiracist. Didn't take the vaccine herself and tried to talk my wife out of getting it, too :-( | 05:21 |
LjL | spybert, someone who regrettably left this channel recently was quite frustrated that all of his ex-friends (or family?) were "unfriending" him due to his positive views of the vaccine etc | 05:22 |
spybert | LjL: The c-section went well, and I now have a healthy baby boy keeping me up at night :-) | 05:22 |
LjL | i guess if you're in the wrong circles and you don't fit in... tough luck | 05:22 |
LjL | spybert, congratulations :P | 05:22 |
bin_bash | LjL: hm poor fit makes me think theyre getting the wrong size | 05:23 |
LjL | bin_bash, possible, but there are only two sizes | 05:23 |
bin_bash | yeah my guess is people who need small get medium or vice versa | 05:24 |
LjL | spybert, i think it's regrettable that all these issues are so polarized always. i have a number of issues and skepticism i could raise about the vaccines, without going "vaccines all suck". vaccines were rushed, factually, and so i have good reason to look at the studies carefully. but that almost seems not to be a position that's acceptable for anyone: the anti-vaxers will hate me and the anti-anti-vaxers too | 05:24 |
LjL | bin_bash, i tried to measure my head as they indicate but it wasn't easy to get a reliable measure | 05:24 |
bin_bash | spybert: i find it horrifying that a hospital would employ someone like that | 05:24 |
bin_bash | LjL: yeah usually need a second person whihc... hard in these times if you life alone | 05:25 |
spybert | bin_bash: Me too, but that's how it is. I think she was probably upset when I speculated that not many babies would be named "Donald" for a very long time :-) | 05:26 |
bin_bash | lol | 05:26 |
bin_bash | i would have sent her out and filed a complaint | 05:26 |
bin_bash | and then contacted the media with her name and information | 05:26 |
spybert | bin_bash: Oh, that would be mean. Her union is protecting her, so it wouldn't do any good. | 05:27 |
bin_bash | that's not necessarily true | 05:27 |
bin_bash | these are very polarizing times | 05:28 |
spybert | bin_bash: The nurses union at that hospital chain negotiated a contract where they have the right to refuse vaccination. | 05:28 |
bin_bash | thats fucked | 05:28 |
bin_bash | you should defintiely contact the media | 05:28 |
spybert | Most of them sensibly might the right choice, but not all :-( | 05:28 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Why is it OK to call the UK variant and South African variant by the geographic area that they originated when we jumped through so many hoops to not call COVID-19 by the area it came from?: I was scrolling through some news headlines tonight and one about the new UK variant caught my attention. It made me think about how many [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/EG3Bom | 05:29 |
spybert | bin_bash: My wife would kill me, she wouldn't want the attention | 05:30 |
bin_bash | there are ways to do it anonymous/pseudonomyously but fair | 05:31 |
bin_bash | esp after a c-section | 05:31 |
bin_bash | shes prob exhausted | 05:31 |
LjL | bin_bash, bah, based on what i can measure on my own, i seem to be juuuust around the size where it's unclear whether i need S/M or M/L | 05:32 |
spybert | bin_bash: Yeah, not feeling so good after the pain medications wore off. They gave her some nice narcotic painkillers to take home but she won't use them. | 05:34 |
bin_bash | LjL: ugh that's frustrating. i would err and go too-small, but idk how close it is | 05:34 |
bin_bash | and which side youre closer to | 05:34 |
bin_bash | spybert: yeah dont blame her esp if shes breastfeeding | 05:34 |
LjL | bin_bash, basically in this table https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/71UqTk%2BWJsL._SL1500_.jpg it looks like my nose-to-chin is just short of 120mm, so 118 or slightly less is plausible, while on the other hand i measure 150mm between the "zygomatic arches", but that's even harder to measure so it could be less (putting me in S/M) or it could be more (M/L) | 05:36 |
LjL | (which is funny because in school i was depicted as pointy-faced, but instead by these metrics i am large-faced) | 05:36 |
bin_bash | i'd go with S/M in that case | 05:37 |
bin_bash | if vertical is just short of 120 then i think S/M will fit much better | 05:38 |
bin_bash | even if the horizontal is slightly larger | 05:38 |
LjL | i was kinda defaulting to S/M before looking at the measures better | 05:38 |
LjL | i imagine my face as smaller than average, not bigger, but... you sometimes have a wrong picture of yourself :P | 05:39 |
bin_bash | actually LjL i was looking at it again | 05:39 |
bin_bash | it does say M/L for that alignment | 05:39 |
bin_bash | i was reading it wrong at first | 05:40 |
LjL | bin_bash, yeah it mostly does. but i could be 118/145 or something like that, which would put me back into S/M. it's just there at the corner of the middle square | 05:43 |
LjL | lower middle square | 05:43 |
bin_bash | yeah | 05:43 |
pugusas | https://twitter.com/AbraarKaran/status/1356418528723701761 | 05:43 |
LjL | anyway, i'll go to bed and skip the respirator for now. i'll just make sure to buy it before everyone else does :P | 05:44 |
pugusas | wish they would have done this last Spring , USPS mail free masks , DPA for N-95s | 05:44 |
LjL | masks were useless last spring! | 05:45 |
LjL | it's well known | 05:45 |
pugusas | 100 years ago USPS built roads , it has some mandate | 05:45 |
LjL | historically, postal services were a very important reason to have roads (like in the roman empire and other empires that came before and after it) | 05:46 |
Brainstorm | Updates for New Zealand: +2 cases (now 2307) since 3 days ago | 06:02 |
pugusas | LjL: this looks interesting, off topic https://romeonrome.com/2016/01/mussolinis-architectural-legacy-in-rome/ | 06:09 |
Brainstorm | New from EurekAlert!: US adults report highest stress level since early days of the COVID-19 pandemic: As the US confronts a bitter election season, political unrest and violence, a shaky economy, and a soaring death toll due to COVID-19, 84% of US adults say the country has serious societal issues that we need to address, according to a new poll. → https://is.gd/XwVGaz | 06:29 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +1264 cases (now 711417), +32 deaths (now 21124) since a day ago | 06:33 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Covid-19: Test blitz to 'find every case' of South African variant → https://is.gd/VuIQbp | 06:42 |
Brainstorm | New preprint: Discovery of re-purposed drugs that slow SARS-CoV-2 replication in human cells by Adam Pickard et al, made available as preprint on 2021-02-01 at https://biorxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2021.01.31.428851 [... want %more?] | 07:02 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid: India launches online memorial to commemorate pandemic victims → https://is.gd/34oo0k | 07:06 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Texas, United States: +36283 cases (now 2.4 million), +171 deaths (now 37245) since a day ago — Andalusia, Spain: +20366 cases (now 411468), +130 deaths (now 6390) since 2 days ago — Saskatchewan, Canada: +1365 cases (now 24011), +38 deaths (now 306) since 6 days ago — United Kingdom: +14270 cases (now 3.8 million), +306 deaths (now 106669) since 13 hours ago | 07:16 |
MKVA51- | Hows things going? | 07:19 |
PoonFly | %cases vietnam | 07:33 |
Brainstorm | PoonFly: In Vietnam, there have been 1850 confirmed cases (0.0% of the population) and 35 deaths (1.9% of cases) as of 17 hours ago. 1.5 million tests were performed (0.1% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Vietnam for time series data. | 07:33 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Europol warns fake negative Covid certificates being sold across Europe → https://is.gd/bBsxBj | 07:42 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Hong Kong threatens to knock down doors to force covid tests → https://is.gd/y6MFp5 | 07:55 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: WHO-led COVID-19 probe team in China visits animal health facility → https://is.gd/UYCerl | 08:32 |
zutt | impressive numbers in Vietnam, if those are even semi-correct | 08:47 |
zutt | %cases taiwan | 08:47 |
Brainstorm | zutt: In Taiwan, there have been 912 confirmed cases (0.0% of the population) and 8 deaths (0.9% of cases) as of 22 hours ago. 314951 tests were performed (0.3% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Taiwan for time series data. | 08:47 |
zutt | Taiwan too | 08:47 |
PoonFly | zutt are you from Taiwan? | 08:53 |
zutt | nein | 08:53 |
PoonFly | so where are you from? and how is it going there? | 08:54 |
PoonFly | is it still fine? | 08:54 |
zutt | %cases Finland | 08:55 |
Brainstorm | zutt: In Finland, there have been 45482 confirmed cases (0.8% of the population) and 677 deaths (1.5% of cases) as of 18 hours ago. 2.9 million tests were performed (1.6% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.8% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 2.1% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Finland for time series data. | 08:55 |
zutt | not very good at the moment | 08:55 |
zutt | new countrywide lockdown is planned to start ~3 months from, if they can get some laws passed to allow this | 08:55 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Vaccine crime ring: Chinese police make 80 arrests & seize 3,000 saline-filled syringes → https://is.gd/D9jaPF | 08:57 |
PoonFly | ohm, take care bro | 08:57 |
zutt | at least we're doing better than our neighbours! :P | 08:58 |
zutt | %cases Sweden | 08:58 |
Brainstorm | zutt: In Sweden, there have been 566957 confirmed cases (5.5% of the population) and 11591 deaths (2.0% of cases) as of 3 days ago. 5.1 million tests were performed (11.1% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Sweden for time series data. | 08:58 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: South African rhino poaching dip accelerates in lockdown → https://is.gd/asN0V1 | 09:09 |
de-facto | mandatory masks in USA public transports? | 09:17 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Moderna proposes filling vials with additional doses of COVID-19 vaccine → https://is.gd/Ze24vb | 09:21 |
de-facto | good point ^^ @Moderna | 09:23 |
de-facto | does it have to be diluted with saline prior to usage like the BioNTech one too? | 09:24 |
de-facto | if so id assume it might be difficult to fill the vial with saline up to one point because of the air bubble not compressing well anymore (hence multiple times must be released) | 09:25 |
Arsanerit | %cases Russia | 09:42 |
Brainstorm | Arsanerit: In Russia, there have been 3.9 million confirmed cases (2.6% of the population) and 73619 deaths (1.9% of cases) as of 23 hours ago. 102.3 million tests were performed (3.8% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.3% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 2.2% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Russia for time series data. | 09:42 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Diseases, Conditions, Syndromes: Does wearing two masks provide more protection? → https://is.gd/to6DxG | 10:10 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: England to surge testing after detecting 11 S.African variant cases: Health officials said Monday they will increase testing in eight areas across England where nearly a dozen South African COVID-19 variant cases have been identified in the last week. → https://is.gd/sgyQKX | 10:23 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: EU aims to boost vaccination rollout as variants spread: The European Union put on a brave face Monday, defending its troubled vaccination programme and insisting that renewed pledges of vaccine deliveries would make up for a production shortfall. → https://is.gd/bKXKiw | 10:47 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Poland: Rebellion against coronavirus lockdowns → https://is.gd/sbv4kl | 11:12 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Alcohol deaths hit record high during Covid pandemic → https://is.gd/e1039k | 11:25 |
Brainstorm | Updates for St. Vin. and Gren.: +107 cases (now 1008) since a day ago | 12:27 |
Brainstorm | New from ScienceNews: COVID-19 precautions may be reducing cases of flu and other respiratory infections: The same efforts to prevent COVID-19’s spread can keep other respiratory infections at bay. But once we go back to normal, outbreaks could be larger. → https://is.gd/WmbXHH | 12:41 |
DocScrutinizer05 | moin | 12:43 |
Birosso | Currywurst. | 12:46 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: India-made Covid-19 vaccines land in Dubai → https://is.gd/bFiApL | 12:53 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Research shows nasal spray that protects against COVID-19 is also effective against the common cold: Research into a new drug which primes the immune system in the respiratory tract and is in development for COVID-19 shows it is also effective against rhinovirus. Rhinovirus is the most common respiratory virus, the main cause [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/XB9ml9 | 13:18 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Olympics-Games will go ahead regardless of pandemic situation: Tokyo 2020 president → https://is.gd/tNiX07 | 13:29 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Russia's Sputnik V vaccine has 92% efficacy in trial: Trials with 20,000 volunteers show the vaccine gives a high level of protection against Covid-19. → https://is.gd/aP9AU0 | 13:42 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Belief in COVID conspiracies linked with vaccine hesitancy: Low likelihood of accepting a coronavirus vaccine is associated with having "conspiracy suspicions" about the pandemic, a new study has found. → https://is.gd/5UbmRw | 14:19 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +1633 cases (now 526728) since 23 hours ago | 14:43 |
Brainstorm | New from NIH Director's blog: Can Blood Thinners Keep Moderately Ill COVID-19 Patients Out of the ICU?: One of many troubling complications of infection with SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, is its ability to trigger the formation of multiple blood clots, most often in older people but sometimes in younger ones, too. It raises the [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/afXFwq | 15:09 |
DocScrutinizer05 | hmmm >>The results that are in so far suggest that individuals hospitalized, but not severely ill, with COVID-19 who received a full intravenous dose of the common blood thinner heparin were less likely to need vital organ support, including mechanical ventilation, compared to those who received the lower “prophylactic” subcutaneous dose. It’s important to note that these findings are in contrast to results announced last month | 15:26 |
DocScrutinizer05 | indicating that routine use of a full dose of blood thinner for patients already critically ill and in the ICU wasn’t beneficial and may even have been harmful in some cases << | 15:26 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine appears safe, 91% effective: Lancet → https://is.gd/H2d1bS | 15:34 |
DocScrutinizer05 | >>The study was published online Tuesday in the journal, Lancet. [...] The latest study is based on research involving about 20,000 people over age 18 at 25 hospitals in Moscow between September and November, of whom three-quarters got two doses of the Russian vaccine 21 days apart and the remainder got placebo shots.<< link please! | 15:39 |
ubLIX[m] | DocScrutinizer05: looks like this one: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00234-8/fulltext | 15:54 |
Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Global trends in lung cancer show continuing disparities: With over 2 million new cases globally in 2018, lung cancer remains the most prevalent cancer in the world. → https://is.gd/xjaDas | 15:58 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: If new COVID variants become dominant in U.S., re-infections likely, says Fauci: If new, more contagious variants become dominant in the United States, a high rate of Americans who have already suffered through a case of COVID-19 will likely get re-infected. → https://is.gd/rnixSx | 16:10 |
Arsanerit | Will we get Спутник V (Гам-КОВИД-Вак) in the EU? | 16:11 |
DocScrutinizer05 | ubLIX[m]: many thanks! Arsanerit: depends. On what ubLIX[m] just linked, which is [quote]>>Safety and efficacy of an rAd26 and rAd5 vector-based heterologous prime-boost COVID-19 vaccine: an ***interim*** analysis of a randomised controlled phase 3 trial in Russia<< so we for sure need better final data before EMA will even consider | 16:23 |
DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: please add https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00234-8/fulltext to %vax sputnik | 16:25 |
DocScrutinizer05 | or wherever it seems to fit | 16:25 |
DocScrutinizer05 | %vax sputnik | 16:25 |
Brainstorm | DocScrutinizer05, Adeno-based - Sputnik V is a Non-replicating viral vector vaccine developed in Russia by Gamaleya Research Institute, which started distribution initially on unspecified → https://covidvax.org/covid19-vaccine/Gamaleya | 16:25 |
DocScrutinizer05 | why only for those who received TWO doses? | 16:31 |
DocScrutinizer05 | AIUI a 12 dozen could have died from first shot and wouldn't even show up in statistics | 16:38 |
DocScrutinizer05 | since this is an allegedly non replicating but still complete and "alive" viral vector vaccine, I'd be _very_ wary about severe adverse reactions to first shot | 16:42 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Safety and efficacy of an rAd26 and rAd5 vector-based heterologous prime-boost COVID-19 vaccine: an interim analysis of a randomised controlled phase 3 trial in Russia (82 votes) | https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00234-8/fulltext | https://redd.it/lauiya | 16:46 |
DocScrutinizer05 | it's not like cracking apart an adenovirus then let it recombine with a swapped-out / modified genome is an exact and audit-able science, is it? | 16:46 |
DocScrutinizer05 | and they even use two "different" vaccines in which adenovirus they employ for dose1 and dose2 | 16:54 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Coronavirus: Why is Portugal being hit so hard?: Good news about COVID vaccines has been in abundance in the past few weeks. In the meantime, though, the pandemic continues to accelerate globally, with Europe accounting for 34% of new cases worldwide. One country in particular has been hit hard: Portugal. → https://is.gd/suUopH | 16:55 |
DocScrutinizer05 | not suggesting that adenovirus vector is insequre per se, but I'd like to see data about adverse reactions on those who got one shot and then bailed out | 16:55 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Sweden targets AstraZeneca COVID-19 jab for under 65s: Swedish health officials on Tuesday recommended that the newly approved AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine primarily be used for those under the age of 65, citing a lack of evidence for its efficacy among the elderly. → https://is.gd/O9SnDD | 17:18 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Vietnam COVID cluster caused by UK variant: A fresh wave of coronavirus infections in Vietnam was caused by a more contagious variant spotted in Britain, authorities said Tuesday, as they rushed to contain the country's most serious ever outbreak. → https://is.gd/1ndN3E | 17:31 |
DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: UK variant percentage in Germany: 1%<N<10%. So closing borders is already pretty pointless | 17:33 |
DocScrutinizer05 | this also voids my layman's forecast as well as the perspective about R_eff | 17:34 |
DocScrutinizer05 | >>So closing borders is already pretty pointless<< for the UK variant, of course it's the more important now to keep the SA and bolsonaro variant out | 17:36 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +5857 cases (now 2.2 million) since 22 hours ago — Netherlands: +1712 cases (now 988583), +50 deaths (now 14117) since 16 hours ago — Canada: +91 deaths (now 20152) since 22 hours ago | 17:37 |
de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, well its not the last variant of concern we will see | 17:46 |
de-facto | https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1356359522177179662 | 17:46 |
darsie | Is the AstraZeneca vaccine cheaper because it doesn't have to be cooled? | 17:46 |
de-facto | "@kakape (Kai Kupferschmidt): And now for the bad news. *sigh* It looks like #B117, the more transmissible variant first detected in England, has now picked up the E484K mutation as well. That is the one linked to evading SOME immunity in SAfrica and Brazil. h/t @_b_meyer https://t.co/2iQLr8uJx7 (18 hours and 48 minutes ago)" | 17:46 |
de-facto | https://twitter.com/richardneher/status/1356370503217389577 | 17:47 |
de-facto | "@richardneher (Richard Neher): @theosanderson You can see them here in @firefoxx66 484 build: https://t.co/vPTTQU47qQ A total of 16 genomes (as of yesterday). One cluster in England, one genomes from Wales. (18 hours and 8 minutes ago)" | 17:47 |
de-facto | darsie, AstraZeneca does not make direct profit from it | 17:47 |
Jigsy | %cases UK | 17:48 |
Brainstorm | Jigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 3.8 million confirmed cases (5.8% of the population) and 106669 deaths (2.8% of cases) as of 10 hours ago. 73.4 million tests were performed (5.2% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 17:48 |
Jigsy | https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/feb/02/teenager-emerges-after-10-month-coma-with-no-knowledge-of-pandemic | 17:48 |
Jigsy | %title | 17:48 |
Brainstorm | Jigsy: From www.theguardian.com: Teenager emerging from 10-month coma has no knowledge of pandemic | UK news | The Guardian | 17:48 |
DocScrutinizer05 | darsie: I think the process and base substances needed are cheaper | 17:50 |
de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, from closing borders way too late to prevent a new variant we should not conclude that it will not have any successor VOC that will use just the same convenient airplane import if that is allowed to repeat | 17:50 |
DocScrutinizer05 | obviously | 17:51 |
de-facto | we probably already will have to deal with our local variants enough, no need for nasty imports | 17:51 |
DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: no need to explain the obvious to me | 17:51 |
de-facto | just in reference to " So closing borders is already pretty pointless" | 17:52 |
DocScrutinizer05 | [2 Feb 2021 17:36:53] <DocScrutinizer05> >>So closing borders is already pretty pointless<< for the UK variant, of course it's the more important now to keep the SA and bolsonaro variant out | 17:52 |
de-facto | its probably too late for that one too | 17:52 |
DocScrutinizer05 | yep | 17:52 |
de-facto | its all over Europe already | 17:53 |
de-facto | https://nextstrain.org/groups/neherlab/ncov/S.E484?c=gt-S_484 | 17:54 |
de-facto | this very well might be a problem | 17:56 |
de-facto | N501Y will take over and E484K might (partially) evade. Great. | 17:58 |
de-facto | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.28.21250486v1 | 17:59 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: PCR assay to enhance global surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern | medRxiv | 17:59 |
de-facto | maybe we should pay the VOC-Import-Export & Co Inc. an extra bonus from tax money for such successful and prompt spread. Bravo. | 18:09 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Mayotte: +415 cases (now 9003) since a day ago — United Kingdom: +11816 cases (now 3.8 million), +618 deaths (now 107117) since 22 hours ago | 18:15 |
LjL | de-facto, i don't quite understand nextstrain. when i hover (or click) on variants, sometimes it says something like "Amino Acid at S site 484: K", but other times it seems to say nothing even though i'm on variants, based on color | 18:21 |
LjL | maybe i'm just bad at computers | 18:21 |
LjL | and/or blind | 18:21 |
DocScrutinizer05 | or the UI is a poor design - my money's on that | 18:23 |
de-facto | all blue should be k | 18:33 |
de-facto | from above link | 18:34 |
de-facto | all should have hover events i assume | 18:36 |
de-facto | maybe a browser bug? | 18:36 |
LjL | i'm probably just blind, they do have hovers, i just thought only some showed the mutation | 18:37 |
LjL | but now it seems all of them do | 18:37 |
LjL | they don't always show it in the same *position* in the list of things it shows | 18:37 |
LjL | so maybe i missed it before because of that | 18:37 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): UK finds more coronavirus cases with 'concerning' mutations → https://is.gd/vpvuJ8 | 18:58 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Cuba: +1044 cases (now 28636), +2 deaths (now 218) since 23 hours ago — Albania: +942 cases (now 79934), +5 deaths (now 1398) since 23 hours ago — Italy: +9651 cases (now 2.6 million), +499 deaths (now 89344) since 23 hours ago | 19:10 |
Brainstorm | New from In The Pipeline: Myths of Vaccine Manufacturing: In the last few days, the question of why more drug companies haven’t been enlisted for vaccine production has come up. It’s mostly due to this tweet: The problem is, as far as I can see, this is simply wrong. There are not “dozens of other pharma companies” who “stand ready” to [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/td4xO1 | 19:11 |
LjL | de-facto, ↑ may answer some of the complaints you had about this not taking place | 19:20 |
LjL | while on a semi-unrelated note... anyone know if the EU has or is in the process of obtaining a purchase agreement for Novavax? that's a rather efficacious vaccine that we initially didn't have on our menu | 19:21 |
LjL | also, so far it looks even more likely that Italy will have elections, apparently the majority isn't finding an agreement :( | 19:22 |
Brainstorm | New from NPR: Biden Administration Will Ship COVID-19 Vaccines Directly To Pharmacies: The program will begin with about 1 million doses a week sent to thousands of retail pharmacies. The White House is stressing that equity of vaccine distribution is a key component of the effort. → https://is.gd/E3gTn4 | 19:23 |
LjL | DocScrutinizer05, %vax just scrapes data off covidvax.org. i've added the Sputnik data to %links (i.e. the think you can see at https://github.com/ljl-covid/links or https://covid19.specops.network ) | 19:45 |
LjL | cc: ubLIX[m] | 19:45 |
LjL | also, when there's something i definitely should add, feel free to use the %tell command (%tell ljl blah blah) to ensure i am aware | 19:46 |
DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: sure ting | 19:59 |
Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Health: Comparing the Covid-19 vaccines developed by Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson → https://is.gd/NXDP06 | 19:59 |
de-facto | " There are definitely not dozens of companies who can make enough RNA. But most importantly, I believe that you can count on one hand the number of facilities who can make the critical lipid nanoparticles." | 20:20 |
de-facto | "That doesn’t mean that you can’t build more of the machines, but I would assume that Pfizer, BioNTech, Moderna (and CureVac as well) have largely taken up the production capacity for that sort of expansion as well." | 20:20 |
de-facto | repeat: "That doesn’t mean that you can’t build more of the machines..." | 20:21 |
DocScrutinizer05 | >>In an ideal world, a pandemic vaccine could be delivered in a single shot, so supplies could be stretched to cover a lot of people<< *plonk* | 20:21 |
de-facto | "There are not “dozens of companies who stand ready” to produce vaccines and “end this pandemic”." <-- well why couldn't there have been such made ready for expected approval date? I mean as soon as it was clear mRNA will be a thing it also was clear that this cap would be needed | 20:23 |
DocScrutinizer05 | one "great" thing about this pandemic: I finally get a very accurate list about who (of politicians, media, reporters) are ignorant idiots and which are the few that actually may earn some trust in their competence | 20:23 |
de-facto | well very interesting read indeed, sure its challenging, yet still production must be scaled up much much more. idk how but it has to be made possible. | 20:25 |
DocScrutinizer05 | downside: I absolutely don't know anymore whom to vote for in next elections | 20:25 |
de-facto | %links sputnik | 20:26 |
Brainstorm | de-facto, https://sputnikvaccine.com/newsroom/pressreleases/second-interim-analysis-of-clinical-trial-data-showed-a-91-4-efficacy-for-the-sputnik-v-vaccine-on-d/ (Second interim analysis of clinical trial data showed a 91.4% efficacy for the Sputnik V vaccine on day 28 after the first dose; vaccine efficacy is over 95% 42 days after the first dose), as announced by Gamaleya in a [... want %more?] | 20:26 |
DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: breaking news: they _are_ ramping up production by all means already | 20:26 |
de-facto | nice | 20:26 |
de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, yes thats what they say, but imho even their proposed plans are not nearly enough production rate cap | 20:27 |
de-facto | and they probably will stay behind those by some factor | 20:27 |
de-facto | one billion doses of mRNA in a year is not nearly enough, we need at least an order of magnitude more... | 20:28 |
de-facto | ...per company | 20:28 |
de-facto | i know its a challenge, but we simply need this now, so i dont want to hear their excuses but rather proposals how to help them with scaling up | 20:29 |
DocScrutinizer05 | and I need a holiday. neither of both is possible, by mere factual logic | 20:29 |
DocScrutinizer05 | you want to help with scaling up? stop ranting | 20:30 |
de-facto | how does that help them? | 20:30 |
DocScrutinizer05 | this will help most | 20:30 |
de-facto | ah | 20:30 |
DocScrutinizer05 | gvmt agreed to try to help with sourcing of intermediate products. Gvmt offered money, nobody *was interested*, they can't use it | 20:31 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Spain: +29351 cases (now 2.9 million), +724 deaths (now 59805) since 23 hours ago | 20:31 |
DocScrutinizer05 | any more questions? | 20:31 |
de-facto | yeah what is their actual bottleneck then? | 20:32 |
de-facto | LNP production cap? | 20:32 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I guess several of bottlenecks, and finally mere capacity of the whole chain as it exists and took literally years to build up and can't get cloned on a contruction site in MekPom in 6 months | 20:33 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I heard simple rubber caps for the vials being just one of the bottlenecks | 20:34 |
DocScrutinizer05 | there are more of bottlenecks, less trivial than caps | 20:34 |
de-facto | yeah the lower in the production hierarchy the more "product" per dose has to go through their production lines (e.g. glasses etc), but nothing i have read so far sounds like an unsolvable problem to me | 20:36 |
de-facto | and the most exotic steps like that LNP production, sure that is challenging and requires experts, still we simply need this to scale at any costs | 20:39 |
de-facto | those 12-24 Euro per dose, i wonder how many orders of magnitude more money can be saved (per dose) by having that does ready earlier | 20:41 |
de-facto | two to three orders of magnitude per year? | 20:44 |
DocScrutinizer05 | ~100 times | 20:44 |
DocScrutinizer05 | again, all that money can buy has already been purchased/ordered | 20:45 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Russia's Sputnik V vaccine 91.6% effective: Lancet study → https://is.gd/pWfsTt | 20:45 |
DocScrutinizer05 | they asked the boss of BNT how much faster he could produce if he gets a 1500€ per dose - answer, absolutely impossible no matter how much money you give me | 20:47 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/covid19: Single Dose Administration, And The Influence Of The Timing Of The Booster Dose On Immunogenicity and Efficacy Of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) Vaccine (81 votes) | https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3777268 | https://redd.it/layx6g | 20:47 |
de-facto | yeah id say economic loss due to covid in US being 16.2 trillion dollar in 2020, its 3500-fold the cost of one vaccination dose | 20:48 |
de-facto | https://www.visualcapitalist.com/putting-the-cost-of-covid-19-in-perspective/ | 20:48 |
de-facto | so two to three orders of magnitude should be somewhat correct | 20:49 |
de-facto | i wonder if it would make a difference if they would pay 150k Euro per Pfizer/BioNTech vial | 20:54 |
DocScrutinizer05 | no | 20:54 |
DocScrutinizer05 | it would create delays due to unusual procedures needed in accounting | 20:55 |
de-facto | huh? computer taking too long counting the additional zeros? | 20:56 |
DocScrutinizer05 | I said >>unusual<< not "additional" | 20:56 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Russia's Sputnik V vaccine is 91.6% effective against symptomatic Covid-19 → https://is.gd/yGIamn | 20:57 |
DocScrutinizer05 | you need completely different logistics to transport stuff of that value, just to start with. and that's not even accountig | 20:57 |
de-facto | yeah i dont care, it has to be solved, logistics is not a problem in my view | 20:58 |
de-facto | quite interesting that the Sputnik V vaccine comes to 95% efficiancy too now | 20:59 |
DocScrutinizer05 | 91%? | 21:00 |
de-facto | how come its numbers are so much better than AZ? | 21:00 |
de-facto | https://sputnikvaccine.com/newsroom/pressreleases/second-interim-analysis-of-clinical-trial-data-showed-a-91-4-efficacy-for-the-sputnik-v-vaccine-on-d/ | 21:00 |
DocScrutinizer05 | for one, it's using TWO different vectors for 1. and 2. shot | 21:01 |
ox1de | cure ambient music: https://youtu.be/eLrJUdBHiXA | 21:01 |
de-facto | i mean if that was the same metric as AZ it would be FANTASTIC numbers | 21:01 |
de-facto | yeah DocScrutinizer05 91,4% | 21:02 |
de-facto | ((31÷4699)−(8÷14095)) ÷ (31÷4699) = 0,914 | 21:03 |
DocScrutinizer05 | ps: they said they had 3 cooperation partners back in October already (iirc) and now are about to finalize cooperations with 15 | 21:04 |
de-facto | this is very very good, we need more independent vaccination production chains worldwide | 21:05 |
de-facto | assuming everything is exactly as they state there (hence giving their claims the same credit as the other publications) | 21:06 |
de-facto | not sure if their platform would be capable of an update shot (due to immunity also developing against already used viral vectors) | 21:07 |
DocScrutinizer05 | they = BNT | 21:08 |
de-facto | no | 21:08 |
de-facto | Gamaleya | 21:08 |
DocScrutinizer05 | yes | 21:08 |
de-facto | or AZ or Janssen etc | 21:09 |
de-facto | .title https://sputnikvaccine.com/newsroom/pressreleases/a-vaccine-for-all-mankind-sputnik-v-s-efficacy-in-fighting-covid-19-is-validated-by-internationally-/ | 21:11 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From sputnikvaccine.com: A vaccine for all mankind: Sputnik V’s efficacy in fighting COVID-19 is validated by internationally peer reviewed data published in The Lancet | Official website vaccine against COVID-19 Sputnik V. | 21:11 |
de-facto | .title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00191-4/fulltext | 21:12 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.thelancet.com: Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine candidate appears safe and effective - The Lancet | 21:12 |
ox1de | cure music: https://youtu.be/eLrJUdBHiXA - any doctors in the channel? this music may be useful - in cure - and boost immunity | 21:12 |
DocScrutinizer05 | we already seen that | 21:12 |
de-facto | .title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00234-8/fulltext | 21:12 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.thelancet.com: Safety and efficacy of an rAd26 and rAd5 vector-based heterologous prime-boost COVID-19 vaccine: an interim analysis of a randomised controlled phase 3 trial in Russia - The Lancet | 21:12 |
ox1de | doc: spread the word | 21:13 |
DocScrutinizer05 | ox1de: please, this isn't a comedy channel | 21:13 |
DocScrutinizer05 | %links sputnik | 21:14 |
Brainstorm | DocScrutinizer05, https://sputnikvaccine.com/newsroom/pressreleases/second-interim-analysis-of-clinical-trial-data-showed-a-91-4-efficacy-for-the-sputnik-v-vaccine-on-d/ (Second interim analysis of clinical trial data showed a 91.4% efficacy for the Sputnik V vaccine on day 28 after the first dose; vaccine efficacy is over 95% 42 days after the first dose), as announced by [... want %more?] | 21:14 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Monaco: +44 cases (now 1543), +3 deaths (now 17) since 22 hours ago — Switzerland: +39 deaths (now 9487) since 22 hours ago | 21:15 |
DocScrutinizer05 | sorry, you're right, finaly efficiency 95% | 21:15 |
ox1de | Tool: https://youtu.be/q7DfQMPmJRI | 21:16 |
de-facto | 10% participants over the age of 60y | 21:17 |
de-facto | efficiancy in those >60y old: 91·8% (67·1–98·3) | 21:21 |
de-facto | 10 = 2 + 8 cases in 1611 people over age 60 | 21:22 |
de-facto | correction 2/1611 in verum and 8/533, hence (8÷533−2÷1611)÷(8÷533) = 0,917 | 21:25 |
ox1de | avg: https://www.avg.com/Antivirus | 21:26 |
de-facto | their placebo branch was only roughly 1/3 of their verum branch in terms of participands | 21:26 |
de-facto | interesting verum vs placebo graph over time, what is the slight kink at day 60? | 21:29 |
de-facto | "Figure 2Kaplan-Meier cumulative incidence curves " | 21:30 |
de-facto | in "Figure 3Humoral immune response" how come some of the placebo group participants have igG titres? recoveries? | 21:33 |
de-facto | probably, i dont really get their dots on level schemes, where are most of the placebo dots? | 21:34 |
de-facto | those are supposed to be violin plots, right? | 21:34 |
de-facto | discrete form of them | 21:34 |
DocScrutinizer05 | ubLIX[m]: thanks | 21:35 |
DocScrutinizer05 | o.O | 21:37 |
LjL | Fun | 21:39 |
de-facto | "The most common adverse events were flu-like illness, injection site reactions, headache, and asthenia. Most of the reported adverse events (7485 [94·0%] of 7966) were grade 1; 451 were grade 2 (5·66%) and 30 were grade 3 (0·38%)." | 21:39 |
LjL | Okay so meanwhile, Mario Draghi (former ECB president) has been appointed by the head of state as the next person who will try to see if he can put together a government | 21:40 |
de-facto | "The analysis of serious adverse events included 21 862 participants who received at least one dose (of whom 19 866 received two doses) up to database lock on Nov 24, 2020. 70 episodes of serious adverse events, considered not related to COVID-19, were recorded in 68 participants: in 45 (0·3%) of 16 427 participants from the vaccine group and 23 (0·4%) of 5435 participants from the placebo group" | 21:40 |
de-facto | "None of the serious adverse events were considered associated with vaccination, as confirmed by the independent data monitoring committee (IDMC)." | 21:41 |
de-facto | LjL, oh wow Draghi going for president in IT? | 21:41 |
LjL | de-facto: AFAIK even if he succeeds he's not automatically going to be PM, he's just the one appointed to "explore" the situation. But I suppose if Conte is just not accepted by Renzi, he might become PM | 21:42 |
de-facto | wow going to be interesting then indeed | 21:43 |
LjL | But I guess basically yeah if he succeeds he probably becomes PM... | 21:43 |
de-facto | https://www.thelancet.com/cms/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00234-8/attachment/17995120-059e-4a34-bd67-f247f6a656b5/mmc1.pdf <-- how can i view that? it sends me in a redirect loop | 21:43 |
de-facto | wtf lancet, slap your admins | 21:44 |
LjL | They are saying it's a bit of a win for Renzi (who everyone hates now for breaking up everything), but really unless Renzi "wins", and gets his stupid ministers, the alternative is elections and it's not an alternative now | 21:44 |
LjL | de-facto: on phone at least, I get redirect loop too | 21:45 |
de-facto | wget can do it | 21:45 |
de-facto | i remember having had that in chrome some time ago | 21:45 |
de-facto | something weird with their backend idk, they should fix it | 21:45 |
de-facto | page 5: Subjects with any serious adverse event: 45÷16427 = 0,002739392 or ~ 0.274% | 21:50 |
de-facto | looks good so far, very good actually | 21:52 |
LjL | Too good? Is this Sputnik? I'm not really following rn | 21:56 |
de-facto | at page 11yes sputnik | 22:00 |
de-facto | yes sputnik | 22:00 |
de-facto | idk if its too good, it looks a lot better than AZ for sure | 22:00 |
de-facto | why not trust their claims as long as we dont have any reason not to do so? | 22:01 |
de-facto | we need some good news from time to time | 22:01 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: The secret to Israel’s coronavirus vaccination success: an agreement with Pfizer to exchange citizens' data (age, gender and medical history) for 10 million doses of the vaccine → https://is.gd/CSo4Xr | 22:04 |
de-facto | yeah and Israel is paying also double the price than EU and does not hold the manufacturer liable | 22:05 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Mutation that helps coronavirus evade vaccines showing up in British variant: (HealthDay)—Public Health England reported a disturbing discovery on Monday: The variant that has brought that country to its knees appears to be gaining a mutation that could help it elude vaccines, The New York Times reported. → https://is.gd/T8XNee | 22:16 |
DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: >>"The analysis of serious adverse events included 21 862 participants who received at least one dose...<< vs >>rare adverse events were assessed in all participants who had received two doses and for whom all available data were verified in the case report form at the time of database lock<< - strange | 22:32 |
de-facto | what do you mean? | 22:38 |
de-facto | 1 vs 2 doses? | 22:39 |
de-facto | btw primer and booster are different AdV vectors | 22:39 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Europe warms to Russian jab after positive trial results: Final-stage trial results published on Tuesday placed Russia's Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine on a par with its Western rivals, as German Chancellor Angela Merkel voiced openness to its use in the European Union once it receives the regulatory nod. → https://is.gd/NueQDE | 22:40 |
de-facto | i think we can not afford to decline any possibility for getting more vaccines ever | 22:44 |
de-facto | we just need to take everything thinkable, just as long as its safe | 22:44 |
de-facto | and the Data for Sputnik V looks good from a fast look over it | 22:45 |
de-facto | i have not looked into any details (i am too tired for that) | 22:45 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Some US pharmacies will offer COVID vaccines from February 11: The United States will begin to offer COVID-19 vaccines at pharmacies from February 11, part of efforts to rapidly increase the rate at which shots reach arms. → https://is.gd/9GvIXq | 22:52 |
Brainstorm | Updates for France: +291 deaths (now 76803) since 21 hours ago — Netherlands: +1726 cases (now 988597) since 21 hours ago | 22:54 |
CoronaBot | 04/r/coronavirus: Russia's Sputnik V vaccine is 91.6% effective against symptomatic Covid-19 (10101 votes) | https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/02/health/russia-sputnik-v-phase-3-intl/index.html | https://redd.it/lav2pl | 23:18 |
DocScrutinizer05 | >><de-facto> what do you mean? 1 vs 2 doses?<< yes, my quote reads like those that bailed out after first shot are not included >>btw primer and booster are different AdV vectors<< that's what I meant by [2 Feb 2021 21:01:15] <DocScrutinizer05> for one, it's using TWO different vectors for 1. and 2. shot | 23:26 |
DocScrutinizer05 | >>1 vs 2 doses?<< it seems like that paper is self-contradicting | 23:29 |
LjL | Dr Galli here who speaks on TV very often (he directs a well known hospital) spoke very strongly against vaccinating the people who already had COVID. he thinks it's "political convenience" but makes no sense, especially when we see that as soon as we vaccinate them their antibodies spike incredibly high, meaning at the very least it makes no sense to also give them the booster. He goes further and thinks before vaccinating people, we should test their | 23:32 |
LjL | antibodies and only vaccinate those without | 23:32 |
de-facto | well assuming one would ask the people in Manaus if they would be fine not to get vaccinated when they test positive for antibodies, do you think they would agree in the light of what currently happens there? | 23:33 |
de-facto | ok granted its Wuhan spike vaccination, should be updated (as should their immunity id guess) | 23:35 |
LjL | de-facto: well no, but we don't really have the certainty that the vaccines (especially some that I won't name but they have the letters A and Z) will work on their variant | 23:35 |
DocScrutinizer05 | manaus been strongly questioned by Drosten today. It's just too implausible that the commonly cited explanation really is true | 23:36 |
de-facto | yes it urgently needs to be tested (and updated imho) | 23:36 |
de-facto | i havent heard the lastest Drosten, he is very competent, but i never trust anyone just because of the name, only for reasoning | 23:37 |
de-facto | and it fits with other data too, e.g. Novavax being only 60% efficient in SA while 90% efficient elsewhere | 23:38 |
LjL | Btw I don't know of I mentioned, but in Italy also, AZ has only been approved for people below 55 years (although in typical Italian fashion they changed their minds like three times in a day) | 23:38 |
DocScrutinizer05 | particularly the "study" that claims a high - iirc 70% - seroprevalence seems quite flaky, based on a lot of assumptions and handwaving. On top it's not likely that a reinfection would cause that many severe cases | 23:38 |
de-facto | i am not convinced AZ would not be efficient in elderly, they just have to provide the data for that | 23:39 |
LjL | de-facto: I think Novavax was actually technically the most effective vaccine, above 95%, if you don't consider South Africa | 23:39 |
LjL | 89% or so is the total | 23:39 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Students' mental health deteriorating during pandemic: Since the COVID-19 pandemic struck last March, psychiatric emergency visits at Rady Children's Hospital near San Diego have crept up as youths and teens struggle with virtual learning, social isolation and unstable home lives. → https://is.gd/14Yuc0 | 23:40 |
de-facto | so (1-0.6)/(1-0.9) = 4 - fold more cases in SA then | 23:40 |
de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, i think Drosten is very convervative, he only believes something with absolutely waterproof evidence (same was with UK variant, when he updated his view). Its good that he is like that but it also means he only is precise (not assuming something without waterproof reasoning, but also not declining it) | 23:43 |
DocScrutinizer05 | *shrug* - for me it sounded very plausible | 23:45 |
de-facto | oh sure, i cant say anything about his statement about Manaus, havent listened to the most current podcast yet | 23:46 |
DocScrutinizer05 | for sure P.1 has some escape potential but that doesn't explain what's happening in Manaus | 23:46 |
de-facto | they gave even 4 (not mutually exclusive) reasons in https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext | 23:47 |
de-facto | so it could be a mix of 1) 75% exaggerated 2) immunity decaying 3) evasive mutants 4) increased transmissibility | 23:48 |
DocScrutinizer05 | all 4 probably | 23:48 |
de-facto | yeah why not | 23:49 |
DocScrutinizer05 | those are btw exactly the 4 arguments Drosen cited. And he added he's expect a lot of sneezing but no death wave (paraphrased by me) from a reinfection wave on such scale | 23:50 |
de-facto | hmm idk | 23:51 |
de-facto | havent they found the B.1.1.7 variant in UK to be more severe (fatality rates wise)? | 23:51 |
de-facto | and havent doctors in Manaus also *said* something like that too (without providing statistics afaik)? | 23:52 |
de-facto | i really should listen to the podcast first though | 23:52 |
de-facto | i think i do that tomorrow, its one and a half hours wow. | 23:53 |
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