| Brainstorm | New from NPR: One Emergency After Another: Wisconsin Governor And Legislators Battle Over COVID-19: The Republican legislature repealed Democratic Gov. Tony Evers' state of emergency declaration Thursday, saying he had overreached his authority. Evers countered and issued another order. → https://is.gd/x4CcGr | 00:06 |
|---|---|---|
| pigughs | https://twitter.com/JosephSakran/status/1356895583441575936 | 00:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for St. Vin. and Gren.: +1 deaths (now 3) since 8 hours ago — Switzerland: +17 deaths (now 9556) since 8 hours ago | 00:09 |
| CoronaBot | /r/covid19: Novavax Announces Start of Rolling Review by Multiple Regulatory Authorities for COVID-19 Vaccine Authorization (83 votes) | https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-announces-start-rolling-review-multiple-regulatory | https://redd.it/lcqgy2 | 00:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Lancet (Online): [Correspondence] Calling for benefit–risk evaluations of COVID-19 control measures: We think government lockdowns cause substantial collateral health damage. For example, hospital admissions in the USA for emergency treatment of acute ischaemic strokes have been substantially lower in February–March, 2020, than in [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/aG7bwn | 00:52 |
| LjL | <Brainstorm> New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Coronavirus: Outbreak of UK variant detected in northern Italy: "14 samples were sequenced which resulted in... 14 positives for the British variant," the Brescia health agency wrote in a statement. → https://is.gd/a078M0 | 00:55 |
| LjL | in a school. but naaah schools are safe! | 00:55 |
| LjL | After 139 people were found positive out of 189 tested, health authorities in the province of Brescia decided to sequence the samples, which identified the British strain of the virus. | 00:56 |
| LjL | "Fourteen samples were sequenced which resulted in... 14 positives for the British variant," the Brescia health agency wrote in a statement sent to AFP on Thursday. | 00:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from ScienceNews: Nearly half a million U.S. children missed out on lead tests in early 2020: A big drop in routine lead tests, which can identify children with elevated blood levels, is another troubling sign of the pandemic’s toll. → https://is.gd/tX5QR5 | 01:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: We paused our Ph.D. research to lead a COVID-19 contact tracing team. Here’s what we learned | 04FEB21 → https://is.gd/gZs2gF | 01:17 |
| CoronaBot | /r/covid19: Johnson & Johnson Announces Submission of Application to the U.S. FDA for Emergency Use Authorization of its Investigational Single-Shot Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate (89 votes) | https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-announces-submission-of-application-to-the-u-s-fda-for-emergency-use-authorization-of-its-investigational-single-shot-janssen-covid-19-vaccine-candidate | https://redd.it/lctl64 | 01:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR: Johnson & Johnson Applies For Emergency Use Authorization for Anti-COVID-19 Vaccine: The company's vaccine has shown to be 85% effective against severe forms of the disease. Patients will only need to receive one shot instead of two, as with other vaccines already in use in the U.S. → https://is.gd/Lt4zRs | 01:52 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +3682 cases (now 793734), +158 deaths (now 20513) since 23 hours ago — Botswana: +765 cases (now 23503), +15 deaths (now 163) since 2 days ago — Netherlands: +2073 cases (now 997172) since 22 hours ago — France: +6719 cases (now 3.3 million), +357 deaths (now 77952) since 22 hours ago | 01:54 |
| de-facto | .title https://codagenix.com/vaccine-programs/covid-19/ | 03:17 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From codagenix.com: COVID-19 - Codagenix | 03:17 |
| de-facto | "COVI-VAC is a single-dose, intranasal, live-attenuated vaccine against COVID-19, generated using Codagenix’s proprietary deoptimization technology." | 03:18 |
| de-facto | that sounds interesting... | 03:18 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/09/16/1008442/synthetic-biologists-have-created-a-slow-growing-version-of-the-coronavirus-to-give-as-a-vaccine/ | 03:19 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.technologyreview.com: Synthetic biologists have created a slow-growing version of the coronavirus to give as a vaccine | MIT Technology Review | 03:19 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +15500 cases (now 3.9 million) since 19 hours ago | 03:21 |
| bittersweetsymph | What does Scott Morrison mean when he says, "The risk environment has changed" in relation to Covid-19? | 03:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: From Denmark to Israel: The countries experimenting with Covid passports → https://is.gd/TpfVGb | 04:28 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for New Zealand: +2 cases (now 2315) since a day ago | 04:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +2452 cases (now 718847), +44 deaths (now 21260) since 23 hours ago | 06:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from EurekAlert!: (news): If healthy people are purposefully infected with COVID-19 for the sake of science, they should be paid → https://is.gd/J7tOw5 | 06:29 |
| Brainstorm | New preprint: Usability of saliva collection devices for SARS-CoV-2 diagnostics by Mary E. Petrone et al, made available as preprint on 2021-02-04 at https://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2021.02.01.21250946 [... want %more?] | 06:58 |
| CoronaBot | /r/coronavirus: Johnson & Johnson applies to FDA for emergency use authorization of coronavirus vaccine (10049 votes) | https://www.statnews.com/2021/02/04/johnson-johnson-submits-application-for-covid-19-vaccine-to-fda/?utm_content=bufferd0c99&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=twitter_organic | https://redd.it/lcsllm | 07:08 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Minas Gerais, Brazil: +10052 cases (now 756971), +184 deaths (now 15499) since a day ago — United Kingdom: +8753 cases (now 3.9 million), +340 deaths (now 110356) since 13 hours ago — Indiana, United States: +2336 cases (now 633667), +1506 deaths (now 11597) since a day ago — Lombardy, Italy: +1746 cases (now 543543), +40 deaths (now 27299) since a day ago | 07:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Coronavirus variants, viral mutation and COVID-19 vaccines: The science you need to understand → https://is.gd/fYO6ew | 07:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Turkey Uighurs fear sellout to China in exchange for vaccine → https://is.gd/6R6iBQ | 08:32 |
| Berlin2021 | Hallo. | 08:50 |
| the-wes | salut | 08:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Rich countries block India, South Africa's bid to ban COVID vaccine patents → https://is.gd/ujrQt7 | 08:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Israel, a global leader in COVID vaccinations, finds limits → https://is.gd/VjqL9g | 09:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from WHO Euro: Redoubling public health measures needed due to COVID-19 virus variants: As we enter the first months of 2021, increasing numbers of reports of variants of the COVID-19 virus mark a new development in the pandemic. A variant dominant in the WHO European Region is of concern as it shows signs of being able to spread more easily [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/ujRINN | 09:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Repeated testing for COVID-19 is vital, economic and public health analysis shows: As a new presidential administration takes steps to examine options to control the spread of COVID-19 through increased testing, epidemiologists at The University of Texas at Austin and other institutions have a new analysis that shows the value [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/YgIRuA | 10:09 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | latest news from RKI/Wiehler: B.1.1.7 in Germany 5%<<N<6% | 10:16 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | and moin | 10:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: EU chief admits COVID vaccine blunders → https://is.gd/NaxHpq | 10:21 |
| najari[m] | did anyone's country do propaganda? ex Germany's "be a couch potato hero" videos or the Vietnam song | 10:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Opinion: A buddy system can help doctors and nurses weather the Covid-19 maelstrom: Relying on a buddy system, physicians and nurses, at risk of becoming lost in the fog and fear of the coronavirus disaster, helped one another bear feeling powerless and not… → https://is.gd/6MeyHX | 10:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Opinion: Public health is being undermined. These 10 actions can restore it: As the country works to halt the catastrophe of Covid-19, we must examine the underlying issues that led to it and leverage the new focus on public health to address… → https://is.gd/yakyev | 10:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: New AI tool can thwart coronavirus mutations: USC researchers have developed a new method to counter emergent mutations of the coronavirus and hasten vaccine development to stop the pathogen responsible for killing thousands of people and ruining the economy. → https://is.gd/GwpIIp | 11:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: How to vaccinate the world against covid-19: When Senjuti Saha, a scientist at the Child Health Research Foundation in Bangladesh, saw pictures of Western citizens receiving the first covid-19 vaccines last December, she felt a familiar pang.... → https://is.gd/wLI7pN | 12:12 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for St. Vin. and Gren.: +103 cases (now 1170) since 20 hours ago | 12:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid vaccines 'extremely safe' finds UK regulator: Almost all of the side effects seen with the two UK vaccines are mild and expected, says the MHRA. → https://is.gd/Ddwc4I | 12:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from Ars Technica: Science: Signs that SARS-CoV-2 is evolving to avoid immune responses → https://is.gd/LgN3QD | 12:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: UK to start hotel quarantine Feb. 15 amid criticism of delay: Everyone arriving in the U.K. from countries identified as coronavirus hotspots will have to spend 10 days in hotel quarantine starting Feb. 15 in a bid to stop new virus variants reaching the country, the government said Friday. → https://is.gd/Rt7mU8 | 13:14 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | najari[m]: didn't you ask _exactly_ same uestion a few days ago in here already? | 13:30 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | [3 Feb 2021 14:55:11] <enatian[m]> did anyone's country do propaganda? ex Germany's "be a couch potato hero" videos or the Vietnam song [3 Feb 2021 14:56:36] <rpifan> what [3 Feb 2021 15:04:39] <iz> in the uk, propaganda is when you get a real good look at something ;b [3 Feb 2021 15:06:02] <dTal> propaganda is a loaded term | 13:31 |
| aloe[m]1 | What are commands | 13:34 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | aloe[m]1: sorry? | 13:36 |
| aloe[m]1 | How do I look at my own country's data | 13:37 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | %cases <region or country> | 13:37 |
| Brainstorm | DocScrutinizer05: Sorry, or country> not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 13:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Gout drug help cuts need for oxygen therapy and hospital stay in COVID-19 patients: Colchicine, a cheap drug normally used to treat gout, helps to cut the need for oxygen therapy and hospital stay in COVID-19 patients, reveal the results of a small clinical trial, published in the online journal RMD Open. → https://is.gd/PKjipV | 13:38 |
| aloe[m]1 | %cases Turkey | 13:38 |
| Brainstorm | aloe[m]1: In Turkey, there have been 2.5 million confirmed cases (3.0% of the population) and 26467 deaths (1.1% of cases) as of 19 hours ago. 30.2 million tests were performed (8.3% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.4% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 1.1% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Turkey for time series data. | 13:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Physician, heal thyself? Leaving healers at risk of covid-19 is unacceptable: We read the reports from Israel suggesting that one dose of Pfizer vaccine could be less effective than expected with disquiet.1NHS staff are being vaccinated for covid-19 with a single dose, as if... → https://is.gd/8NDvAU | 14:03 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +12363 cases (now 2.3 million) since 22 hours ago | 14:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Opposition legislators in Turkey are accusing Ankara’s leaders of secretly selling out Uighurs to China in exchange for coronavirus vaccines → https://is.gd/3mAOqO | 14:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from EMA: What's new: General: Treatments and vaccines for COVID-19: post-authorisation → https://is.gd/9V0yxs | 15:04 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +1584 cases (now 531873), +31 deaths (now 9570) since 23 hours ago | 15:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Covid: Virus cases show clear signs of fall in most of UK → https://is.gd/fs5Rbs | 15:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: 4 things about mRNA COVID vaccines researchers still want to find out: The first mRNA vaccines approved for use in humans—the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines—are being rolled out around the world. → https://is.gd/Mprhzv | 15:51 |
| lazysundaydreams | %cases Czechia | 15:53 |
| Brainstorm | lazysundaydreams: In Czechia, there have been 1.0 million confirmed cases (9.6% of the population) and 16976 deaths (1.7% of cases) as of 6 hours ago. 6.4 million tests were performed (15.8% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.0% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 1.8% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Czechia for time series data. | 15:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: What a squeezed rubber ducky suggests about the lingering effects of vaccine misinformation: The mutations in the coronavirus indicate that the virus is working hard to survive, with transmissible COVID-19 variants being detected around the world. These mutations have increased the urgency of vaccinating hundreds of millions of [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/h62HA0 | 16:03 |
| najari[m] | DocScrutinizer05: there it is! | 16:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Blood lead level testing among children decreased during COVID-19: During the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a decrease in blood lead level (BLL) testing among young children, according to research published in the Feb. 5 issue of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. → https://is.gd/rancWv | 17:01 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | najari[m]: what is "it"? | 17:03 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +4300 cases (now 1.0 million), +61 deaths (now 14311) since 22 hours ago | 17:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): PAtterns and Extension in Sars-Cov-2 Related Interstitial Pneumonia: CT Analysis → https://is.gd/wwXwOi | 17:14 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +13249 cases (now 3.9 million), +643 deaths (now 110659) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +3333 cases (now 795821), +105 deaths (now 20519) since 23 hours ago | 17:50 |
| de-facto[m] | In Germany we have 5.8% prevalence of the B.1.1.7 Variant of Concern according to RKI | 18:18 |
| de-facto[m] | We URGENTLY need much harder lockdown | 18:21 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | alas we're discussing the opposite | 18:21 |
| de-facto[m] | Otherwise incidence will EXPLODE just like in Portugal | 18:21 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | yes, in 3 or 4 weeks | 18:22 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | unless the health office C&Tteams make the difference and save us | 18:24 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | very unlikely | 18:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR: White House Is Lining Up 6 More Contracts To Boost At-Home Coronavirus Tests: The investment will "rapidly surge domestic testing capability," said Tim Manning, supply coordinator for the COVID-19 Response Team. → https://is.gd/rm3Q98 | 18:30 |
| CoronaBot | /r/covid19: Latest monitoring data confirms safety of COVID-19 vaccines (80 votes) | https://www.gov.uk/government/news/latest-monitoring-data-confirms-safety-of-covid-19-vaccines | https://redd.it/ld630v | 18:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Covid: All over-50s in UK to be offered vaccine by May → https://is.gd/KTACkm | 18:43 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Albania: +1089 cases (now 83082), +15 deaths (now 1433) since 23 hours ago — Kuwait: +940 cases (now 169190), +2 deaths (now 964) since a day ago — Italy: +377 deaths (now 90618) since 23 hours ago | 18:45 |
| LjL | Up to the 24 January 2021 the MHRA have received 69 reports of facial paralysis or paresis with Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. This is currently listed as a possible side effect in the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine based on a small number of reports in the trials, but because this can also occur naturally an association with the vaccine is not yet confirmed. Six reports of facial paralysis have been received for the COVID-19 Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine. | 18:50 |
| LjL | Out of about 16000 total reports for Pfizer vs 6000 for AZ | 18:51 |
| LjL | They still conclude that it's compatible with background occurrence. But, while that should be assessed against the total of vaccines given for each type (which I don't have currently) how can it NOT be a vaccine reaction when the proportion is so skewed towards Pfizer than AZ? (Which likely has fewer side effects in general, so if the occurrences of Bell's palsy were similar, you'd expect comparatively more reports for it in AZ than in Pfizer) | 19:01 |
| LjL | 69/16000 = 0.004, 6/6000 = 0.01, and for reference (but these data are not comparable) background incidence according to Wikipedia is 4/10000 = 0.0004 | 19:03 |
| LjL | Err | 19:04 |
| LjL | Make AZ 0.00 obviously :p | 19:05 |
| LjL | Argh | 19:05 |
| LjL | 0.001 | 19:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from Virological.org: Latest posts: @boris.klempa Boris Klempa: A novel, room temperature-stable, multiplexed RT-qPCR assay to distinguish lineage B.1.1.7 from the remaining SARS-CoV-2 lineages → https://is.gd/sp3RCp | 19:08 |
| CoronaBot | /r/coronavirus: Covid stimulus package worth $1.9 trillion clears Senate after Kamala Harris gives tie breaking vote (10350 votes) | https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/covid-stimulus-package-senate-kamala-harris-b1798087.html | https://redd.it/ld64e2 | 19:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: We are health-care reporters covering the Covid vaccine rollout, mutations, treatments, long-term effects, and legal liabilities. Ask us anything! → https://is.gd/UiuwSp | 19:21 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +32 deaths (now 9584) since 22 hours ago | 19:29 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, https://www.sueddeutsche.de/wissen/coronavirus-mutante-b117-daten-1.5197700 | 19:36 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | ta | 19:36 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | .tr <de Nimmt man eine nur um 30 Prozent erhöhte Ansteckungswahrscheinlichkeit an, so würden die Fallzahlen bei gleichbleibenden Maßnahmen erst im April wieder merklich ansteigen. Zuvor würde die Inzidenz die Zielmarke von 50 Neuinfektionen je 100 000 Einwohner pro Woche unterschreiten. Dadurch könnte etwa die Kontaktnachverfolgung durch die Gesundheitsämter wieder effektiver und eine nächste Welle womöglich verhindert werden. | 19:42 |
| Brainstorm | DocScrutinizer05, German to English: Assuming that the probability of infection is only 30 percent higher, the number of cases would not noticeably increase again in April if the measures were taken the same. Previously, the incidence would fall below the target of 50 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants per week. This could make contact tracking by the health authorities more [... want %more?] | 19:43 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | effective and a next wave might get stopped | 19:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Rich countries block India, South Africa's bid to ban COVID vaccine patents → https://is.gd/9gfPEt | 19:44 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | nice summary of what I'm annoying you all with, since weeks | 19:44 |
| de-facto | well if the Rb117 = 1.5 Rt then Nb117(t)/N(t) = N0b117/N0 1.5^(t/tserial) | 19:45 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | err maybe | 19:45 |
| de-facto | at least in the transition period, then other effects probably take over | 19:46 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | sorry you lost me | 19:46 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | plaintext would be more useful | 19:46 |
| de-facto | i just meant if we write N(t) = N0 R^g for the normal variant and we could assume for the B.1.1.7 variant its Rb117 ~ 1.5 R we would write Nb117(t) = N0b117 Rb117^g = N0b117 R^g 1.5^g with the number of generations g = t/tserial for an average time of tserial between two consecutive generations in an infection chain | 19:49 |
| LjL | urgh | 19:50 |
| de-facto | N(t) being the daily new infections (incidence) | 19:50 |
| LjL | i'm writing to write a question about Bell's Palsy on a current Reddit AMA but i cannot find exactly where it was stated that Pfizer had 4 Bell's palsy cases. it does state it at https://apps.who.int/iris/rest/bitstreams/1327316/retrieve (nice URL) but then it's not clear out of how many in the vaccine group that was. i remember seeing a table... while in the actual study and the FDA assessment that i have linked in my links collection, it doesn't state it | 19:51 |
| LjL | at all | 19:51 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | hi LjL | 19:52 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | ,tr <de Einschreckung | 19:53 |
| de-facto | restriction= | 19:53 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I guess that's a terrible "typo" of "Einschränkung" - never seen a german word "Einschreckung" and can't find it in any dictionary either. Also doesn't make any sense | 19:58 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | maybe in Austria ;-D | 19:58 |
| LjL | hi | 20:07 |
| LjL | i've aaaalmost written my question | 20:07 |
| LjL | if i take longer than this they'll close the AMA by the time i'm done ;( | 20:07 |
| LjL | but it's okay anyway, i've put together a few numbers that were sparse to find | 20:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from ScienceNews: How coronavirus variants may drive reinfection and shape vaccination efforts: New coronavirus variants could infect people who have already recovered from COVID-19 or been vaccinated, but there are still many unknowns. → https://is.gd/cFQwve | 20:08 |
| LjL | okay, here's my question https://np.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/ldc8uu/we_are_healthcare_reporters_covering_the_covid/gm5dnnx/ | 20:14 |
| LjL | if you can spot any glaring mistakes please tell me | 20:14 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Recent Commits to links:master: Remove duplicate entry ( https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/fd2ac9f92db7f61c610bbb78ea99570e525c0ecf ) | 20:25 | |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Recent Commits to links:master: Add long-sought WHO document on Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine ( https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/fd8d008b7ee07ce29f8a60dc27acbeb457cd1460 ) | 20:25 | |
| de-facto | When take the ratio Nb117(t)/N(t) of B.1.1.7 to conventional in Denmark and make a NonLinearModelFit on it it gives me Rb117 = 1.4352 R hence the B.1.1.7 variant appears to be 144% more infectious... | 20:26 |
| de-facto | not good :/ | 20:27 |
| de-facto | data taken from the sueddeutsche.de article i linked above | 20:27 |
| de-facto | so unfortunately my assumption above of 1.5 is pretty accurate, this variant is really dangerous :( | 20:28 |
| LjL | warning, very anecdotal hearsay data: TV here said that in the place (near Brescia, Lombardy as usual, sigh) where we are currently having a "UK variant" outbreak, there haven't been very severe cases (but it started in a school) | 20:28 |
| de-facto | we probably need a hard curfew until vaccine manufacturers managed to scale up their production rates | 20:29 |
| de-facto | and airports should be closed down completely, i dont understand why passenger travel still is allowed at all | 20:30 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Recent Commits to links:master: Add MHRA page on vaccine adverse reaction reporting ( https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/dcf7adaf8feb6ea417ff9e8acc73d746345999e5 ) | 20:30 | |
| Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Add MHRA page on vaccine adverse reaction reporting → https://is.gd/Xzh33J | 20:32 |
| LjL | $ grep '<de-facto>.*air.*travel.*\(?\|allowed\)' freenode/*covid-19/202* | wc -l | 20:35 |
| LjL | 9 | 20:35 |
| LjL | :P | 20:35 |
| * rmonten[m] sent a long message: < https://matrix.org/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/HaajhaENMepHCNEHpLxmCMaq/message.txt > | 20:42 | |
| rmonten[m] | (Could still be a fluctuation of course, we're talking about 4 cases so I guess we should calculate what the p value is.) | 20:43 |
| LjL | rmonten[m], i'm not great at math, and yes i am aware that i'm comparing apples to oranges a bit there... the thing is that i wanted to be conservative and not make a claim about "vs background" because that claim seemed tenuous (and i didn't know the math to make it). so i insisted on a claim based on comparing first the vaccine arm with the control arm, and then the mRNA vaccines vs AstraZeneca | 20:45 |
| LjL | but i appreciate your corrections, this way it makes even more sense that it is an actual side effect | 20:45 |
| LjL | (also did the phase 3 trial actually last just 2 months? gee) | 20:46 |
| LjL | (i was thinking ~6 or so) | 20:46 |
| rmonten[m] | Oh I see. Yeah I didn't get that you were trying to compare trial data to other trial data :-) Sounds really hard because the numbers in the control groups (0, 1) are really so small. | 20:47 |
| LjL | rmonten[m], i wouldn't have written it if it hadn't been for reading today about the MHRA numbers | 20:47 |
| rmonten[m] | Well I got the 2 months from page 5 of the WHO document on Phizer: "Safety data from 37586 participants ≥16 years of age randomized 1:1 to vaccine or placebo with a median of 2 months of follow-up after the second dose suggested a favourable safety profile." | 20:48 |
| LjL | also, in the beginning when i looked at this, i read a paper (that i cannot seem to find now) where it looked like, for Pfizer, it was 4 out of 2000 or so. and i couldn't understand how that was compatible with background occurrence. but instead it seems to be 4 out of 20000. just saying, without that mistake, i probably wouldn't have started focusing on this at all | 20:48 |
| LjL | rmonten[m], if you have a reddit account maybe you can adapt your comments into a reply to me? or if you prefer i can write a follow-up where i say that someone i know has noted those facts= | 20:49 |
| rmonten[m] | Right. Yeah with these super low numbers it's hard to say anything. I guess governments will start reporting more data at some point | 20:49 |
| * LjL hopes not to get banned, that subreddit has some strict rules on "questions that aren't questions" | 20:49 | |
| LjL | rmonten[m], the numbers from MHRA aren't so low... | 20:50 |
| rmonten[m] | LjL: I don't have a reddit account unfortunately, feel free to quote me though :-) | 20:50 |
| rmonten[m] | at your own risk for errors of | 20:50 |
| rmonten[m] | *of course | 20:50 |
| LjL | rmonten[m], i edited the question accordingly (with your notes at the end) | 20:54 |
| LjL | i may ask the question again later on r/coronavirus if i don't get an answer on this AMA | 20:55 |
| LjL | (ideally i'd ask on r/COVID19 but they ban on sight anything that's not a paper...) | 20:56 |
| rmonten[m] | yay my first reddit contribution | 20:56 |
| LjL | :) | 20:57 |
| LjL | rmonten[m], so anyway, personally you'd say there's simply not enough data to draw a conclusion on whether this is an actual side effect? | 20:57 |
| rmonten[m] | Yeah I agree | 20:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR: New York Scrambles To Improve Vaccination Acceptance In Black And Latino Communities: The state opened a mass vaccination site at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx on Friday and is working with Black pastors to overcome worries about vaccine safety. → https://is.gd/M0AyAm | 21:06 |
| LjL | well, my question is getting heavily downvoted :( | 21:21 |
| LjL | so much for wasting a couple of hours writing it | 21:21 |
| rmonten[m] | alas, you didn't win the popularity contest | 21:23 |
| LjL | well it means it's shown at the bottom of the thread, makes it less likely to be answered | 21:24 |
| LjL | anyway the people who were supposed to answer have now edited the main post and "wrapped up" the AMA | 21:24 |
| LjL | so it won't be answered. i also can't actually ask it on either r/Coronavirus or r/COVID19 as i realize they only allow posting links, not text | 21:24 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: ((question)) let me know when there's an answer | 21:24 |
| LjL | someone else was of the opinion that comparing the MHRA data makes no sense | 21:25 |
| LjL | at least not with "total reports" as a denominator | 21:25 |
| LjL | but if i use "total vaccined" as a denominator, the number gets ridiculously small, i think much less than natural occurrence? which would mean... i don't know. why are side effects even reported if there is no clear way to figure out how common they are or even if they are real side effects? ;( | 21:26 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Spain: +29030 cases (now 2.9 million), +584 deaths (now 61386) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +4300 cases (now 1.0 million) since 23 hours ago | 21:27 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>we probably need a hard curfew until vaccine manufacturers...<< I'd hope we only need that until we reached <<50/100k7d, since then T&C should take over and a HARD curfew isn't needed anymore, probably no curfew at all and only much testing and always the notorious AHAL rules | 21:28 |
| de-facto | well we would need to reach something equivalent to R=0.5 with the previous variant, we never ever achieved that, if we would only achieve R=0.7 (as last spring) the new variant would be endemic (not reduced at all) | 21:33 |
| de-facto | so the conclusion is: we urgently need a harder lockdown than ever before, immediately | 21:33 |
| de-facto | thanks to tolerating tourism, how else should it have been imported | 21:34 |
| de-facto | and btw we already can see that, numbers stopped going down in many federal states | 21:36 |
| de-facto | hence the necessity for government to urgently ramp up lockdown measures | 21:36 |
| de-facto | any politician speaking of taking back restrictions really is saying that he or she did not understand the current situation at all | 21:37 |
| de-facto | and btw even without the new strain the tracing and containing efforts were not able to restrict the increase above 50/100k weekly incidence before, hence my hope is low that reaching that will save us from a new explosion of incidence | 21:39 |
| de-facto | if we don't increase lockdown massively it is inevitable that incidence will explode, its crystal clear form the data of other countries with similar conditions | 21:40 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >><de-facto> any politician speaking of taking back restrictions really is saying that he or she did not understand the current situation at all<< wasn't it you tellingme sth like >>they hope to get away with a broken nose<<? | 21:41 |
| de-facto | since R=0.7 ~ 1/1.44 barely was scratched last spring with much better conditions (and that would be equivalent to R=1 for B.1.1.7), we need a much harder lockdown than that | 21:42 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, yes | 21:42 |
| ubLIX[m] | de-facto: how would you project the outcomes of vaccination efforts (from, say, Israel's example) going forward, supposing that the limit generally of what happens is qualitatively prior effort+vaccines? | 21:43 |
| de-facto | actually i dont see how we can reach something like R=0.5 ~ 0.7/1.44 without a hard curfew | 21:43 |
| de-facto | ubLIX[m], what do you mean by that? | 21:44 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | vaccination in Germany will take any noticeable effect no sooner than first of May, my guess | 21:45 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | well, for general pandemic that is. It _will_ protect the elderly | 21:45 |
| de-facto | vaccinations would reduce the reproduction by an unknown factor derived from the efficiancy "e" of vaccinations to reduce transmissions relative to naive immune systems: Rvac = R (1 - v * e) with a portion of "v" vaccinated of all of population | 21:46 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | of which a significant fraction already received 2nd shot? | 21:46 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquoten-Tab.html | 21:48 |
| de-facto | full (two dose vaccinations) in Germany 0.834389/83M = ~1% | 21:49 |
| de-facto | that is completely irrelevant in terms of virus reproduction | 21:50 |
| de-facto | much much too low | 21:50 |
| de-facto | by orders of magnitude | 21:50 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | that's exactly hat I said | 21:50 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | what* | 21:50 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >><DocScrutinizer05> well, for general pandemic that is. It _will_ protect the elderly of which a significant fraction already received 2nd shot?<< | 21:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from Scientific American: Coronavirus News Roundup, January 30-February 5: Pandemic highlights for the week -- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com → https://is.gd/h8w4ht | 21:54 |
| Impeero | interesting | 21:55 |
| de-facto | so if we assume Rvac = Rb117 (1 - v e) = R 1.44 (1 - v e) and we want to know the point at which vaccinations make compensate the transmission increase by the VOC B.1.1.7 we need 1.44 (1 - v e) == 1 hence we need to reach a portion of v = (1 - 1/1.44) / e = 0.3055 / e of vaccinations | 22:00 |
| de-facto | so guessing an (unknown) efficiency of stopping transmission by vaccinations of e = 0.6 would give v = 0.3055/0.6 = 0.5092 or ~ 50% vaccinations | 22:01 |
| de-facto | so at least 50-fold of what we have now in Germany | 22:02 |
| de-facto | no chance current vaccinations help us with the current occurence of B.1.1.7 unless we increase vaccinations rates by orders of magnitude | 22:02 |
| de-facto | hence: we need a hard curfew | 22:03 |
| de-facto | (i hate to say that, but its what I honestly believe) | 22:03 |
| ubLIX[m] | until vaccination reach is greater than 50%? | 22:03 |
| de-facto | yeah | 22:04 |
| ubLIX[m] | how long is that going to be? | 22:04 |
| de-facto | if we can assume e = 0.6 (that is still completely unknown afaik) | 22:04 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: thanks for being verbose on the math | 22:04 |
| de-facto | or do you guys know of any source estimating the efficiency of vaccinations to stop transmissions? | 22:05 |
| Impeero | I dont know. But doesnt variants like make vaccines less efective? | 22:05 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | 9.6 sounds a reasonable guess | 22:06 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | 0.6 that is | 22:06 |
| de-facto | yes some do, for example Novavax was ~90% effective with classic variants and only 60% effective with SA strain for protection against symptomatic COVID | 22:06 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | ubLIX[m]: according to current plans, until start of summer | 22:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from University of Washington: Opinion: If You’re Under 65, Don’t Hesitate to Vaccinate Against COVID-19 (quotes Judith Wasserheit): 210203_de_young_vaccines_wa_hero.jpg.jpg Close People arrive in the lobby as Seattle Fire Department’s mobile vaccination team administers COVID-19 vaccines to residents at Columbia Place senior housing in South [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/yoGQC1 | 22:06 |
| ubLIX[m] | june/july? | 22:07 |
| LjL | ubLIX[m], https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=au6FKi8aAsA ← he's going a bit conspiracy-sounding lately... not that i disagree, i think vitamin D has been "associated" with COVID too many times and in too many ways to disregard it, but for comparison, Medlife Crisis pretty much uses the very vitamin D example as one of correlation without causation | 22:07 |
| de-facto | they say that they want to offer everyone a vaccination before summer, but i doubt that is realistic with current production rates | 22:07 |
| Impeero | I mean we just have to deal with living with this. Its not going away soon. If we do a curfew people will get in a worst economic situation that they already are. | 22:08 |
| Impeero | We need protection but we cant curfew an entire country | 22:08 |
| Impeero | mandatory masks, sanitizer in every corner | 22:09 |
| Impeero | but we cant lockdown a country | 22:09 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: wait, didn't they say "until end of summer"? | 22:09 |
| de-facto | or maybe even that, could be | 22:09 |
| de-facto | i dont think its realistic anyhow | 22:09 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | it's realistic but it obviously won't help us our before next autumn or winter | 22:10 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | out* | 22:10 |
| de-facto | yeah, we only have NPIs to fight that, just like 100 years ago | 22:10 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | yes | 22:10 |
| de-facto | at least we have proper masks now | 22:16 |
| ubLIX[m] | if this were an RTS economics game scoring for population preservation you'd plough resources into not-for-profit vaccine production and distribution into the hundreds of millions of doses per day | 22:17 |
| ubLIX[m] | #sillythoughtoftheday | 22:17 |
| de-facto | id assume so, yet manufacturers claim more money would not change progress for increase in production rates (i have to say i still doubt that) | 22:18 |
| Impeero | yes age of empires III: the flue strikes back | 22:19 |
| de-facto | the lipids for the LNPs in the process in integrating the mRNA into the LNPs being one bottleneck | 22:19 |
| ubLIX[m] | LjL: i got a bit turned off the Campbell videos in the end | 22:20 |
| LjL | ubLIX[m]: he kinda writes things and then read them. But it's interesting to see how people appear to change during the pandemic | 22:21 |
| ubLIX[m] | LjL: i suspect his presentation, the time he takes over it, is half intended to persuade just as much as inform. i'd rather half the information packed as densely as possible | 22:22 |
| ubLIX[m] | s/half/have/ | 22:22 |
| * ubLIX[m] has had either too much or too little coffee | 22:22 | |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>at least we have proper masks now<< \o/ YEAH,I got my vouchers for 2 times 6 FFP2 masks today :-D | 22:25 |
| de-facto | i like the Campell videos, its so cool he still uses printouts and papers with ink pen together with his fancy hightech video setup :) | 22:26 |
| de-facto | in university i also very much prefer people writing with chalk on the blackboard | 22:26 |
| ubLIX[m] | the trouble with not stamping vaccine factories all over the planet (from an RTS game perspective) is if a roundly successful escape mutation happens.. the production lag would be devastating all over again | 22:26 |
| de-facto | i hate powerpoint presentations | 22:26 |
| de-facto | ubLIX[m], yes but in case we have a complete escape mutant hence the necessity to update all the vaccines production rate capacity becomes even more important | 22:27 |
| de-facto | basically i think of it like a race condition: virus mutation vs immunization by (up to date) vaccinations | 22:28 |
| ubLIX[m] | de-facto: my middle-of-nowhere carrier-pigeon grade internet doesn't appreciate sparsely packed videos. video players have pause buttons, so i'll stick to the densely packed ones. owners of city-quality internet might feel differently | 22:28 |
| ubLIX[m] | de-facto: mhm | 22:29 |
| de-facto | i see yeah i have to admit i always put most of the yt videos on 2x playback speed | 22:29 |
| ubLIX[m] | but how to get all nations to treat the development of x hundred million doses a day capacity as a global commons... | 22:30 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +28287 cases (now 3.3 million), +483 deaths (now 78435) since 20 hours ago | 22:41 |
| de-facto | one question that occurred to me during those Vit D level studies: if they say that vitamin D levels correlate with probability of COVID and severity of it while saying at the same time that Vit D levels also correlate with genetic factors, to which degree would the correlation between COVID and Vit D be explained by the common background of the genetic factors then? | 22:41 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | that's the scientific spirit we wanna see :-D | 22:42 |
| de-facto | e.g. how much of this correlation is due to genetics (hard to compensate but may be a predictor) and how much due to Vit D deficiency (that can be compensated) | 22:42 |
| de-facto | id assume that there are are even four possible effects 1) simple Vit D deficiency (not enough light) 2) genetics promoting Vit D deficiency (or influencing Vit D requirements) 3) COVID probability directly depending on Vit D moderated immune effects (hence both 1 and 2) and finally 4) COVID probability also correlating with other genetic factors (that may correlate themselves with the genetic factors for Vit D deficiency) | 22:50 |
| de-facto | probably no chance to distinguish any of those unless double blind studies with genetic sequencing of participants genome is done | 22:51 |
| de-facto | *are done | 22:52 |
| * de-facto cant spell while listening to yt videos at the same time | 22:52 | |
| DocScrutinizer05 | 5) to build up D you need to stay in sun aka outside. It's considered proven that most covid ingections occur indoors | 23:10 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | ;-P | 23:10 |
| de-facto | yeah indeed thats one possible correlation too | 23:11 |
| dTal | In case you're serious... that doesn't really follow | 23:12 |
| dTal | most covid infections may occur indoors, but that doesn't mean that spending more time outside is any protection | 23:13 |
| dTal | for the same reason that most people die in bed, but staying out of bed doesn't make you immortal | 23:13 |
| dTal | or even spending *less* time in bed | 23:14 |
| de-facto | well the time outdoors cant be spend indoors and if indoor/outdoor correlates with exposure intensity a correlation between attack rate and where time is spend should be expected (ignoring that probably healthy people have more energy for outdoor activities). If a side effect from that is exposure to sun hence Vit D levels it also fits into that generic correlation scheme Vit D <-> 1/COVID | 23:18 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Barbados: +15 cases (now 1656), +2 deaths (now 17) since 18 hours ago | 23:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR: Should Schools Reopen If Teachers Aren't Yet Vaccinated? CDC Will Soon Weigh In: President Biden wants schools to reopen quickly. But there are questions about whether teachers should first be vaccinated. The CDC will provide more guidance next week. → https://is.gd/dKa17N | 23:29 |
| de-facto | something completely different: i know from own experience that nutrition correlates with inflammatory responses (e.g. more on some proteins, less on some vegetables etc.), are there studies about the impact of artificial nutrition (IV or such?) on ICU beds on the inflammation probability? | 23:30 |
| de-facto | like to which degree an inflammatory reaction progression is influenced by the transition of a patients "normal" nutrition to the one given in ICU beds | 23:31 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_pzhBvTlns "Spahn und RKI-Chef Wieler zur Corona-Lage" <-- Press Briefing today about current development in Germany (German lang) | 23:39 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.youtube.com: Spahn und RKI-Chef Wieler zur Corona-Lage - YouTube | 23:39 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | and both dodged to clearly name the situation as explained by SZ | 23:40 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I know, "never attribute to malice ..." but here I can't accept incompetence as a possible explanation.This is intentional | 23:41 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | They both KNOW it will explode into our face if we don't multiply efforts to get Rt down | 23:44 |
| de-facto | well the exponential raise still hiding in the overall not rising numbers (yet) from now on can be considered public knowledge | 23:44 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | *sigh of relief* | 23:45 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | indeed, kudos to SZ for that | 23:45 |
| de-facto | so remember very well which of the politicians speak about taking back restrictions now, they are either not following the current information or are completely incompetent, both reasons would classify them as not fit for their job | 23:45 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | surprisingly calm still, in media. A little excitement for 15 minutes about >>Lauterbach announces 3rd wave<< | 23:48 |
| de-facto | unfortunately realistic if we really already have 5.8% B.1.1.7 in our prevalence | 23:48 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | "HUSH! don't wake the elephant in the room!" | 23:48 |
| pigzuu | https://covidtracking.com/analysis-updates/numbers-are-high-but-improving-this-week-in-covid-19-data-feb-4/ | 23:54 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | .tr <de Möglich ist die Pandemiebekämpfung auch mit den ansteckenderen Varianten noch. Gelingt es, durch konsequentes Einhalten von Maßnahmen wie Abstandhalten, Masketragen und Kontaktverzicht auch die effektive Reproduktionszahl von B.1.1.7 unter den Wert von 1 zu drücken, | 23:59 |
| Brainstorm | DocScrutinizer05, German to English: Pandemic control is still possible with the more contagious variants. If it is possible to reduce the effective reproduction number of B.1.1.7 below the value of 1 by consistently complying with measures such as keeping distance, wearing masks and not wearing contact, (MyMemory) [... want %more?] | 23:59 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | .tr <de würden die Fallzahlen bis zum Frühjahr in Bereiche sinken, in denen sie zuletzt im Sommer 2020 waren. Dafür scheinen die derzeit geltenden Maßnahmen allerdings nicht effektiv genug zu sein oder nicht gut genug umgesetzt zu werden. | 23:59 |
| Brainstorm | DocScrutinizer05, German to English: the number of cases would fall by spring to areas where they were last in the summer of 2020. However, the measures currently in force do not appear to be effective enough or not being implemented well enough. (MyMemory) [... want %more?] | 23:59 |
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