| DocScrutinizer05 | >><de-facto> Do export restrictions also apply to vaccine production facilities outside US, e.g. if Novavax AB in Uppsala (Sweden) could produce, would it be allowed to deliver to the EU?<< yes, og course >><de-facto> how is that with Johnson & Johnson owned Janssen Pharmaceutica N.V. in Belgium or Janssen-Cilag GmBH in Neuss?<< same, and AFAIK they _do_ produce at Janssen | 00:02 |
|---|---|---|
| LjL | de-facto, not the same thing, but about vaccines and the US, did you read the part of the article about the EU "mistakes" where it says the commission suddenly found themselves facing Pfizer lawyers instead of just BioNTech people? back then, it seemed that Merkel had managed to "protect the vaccine from Americans [Trump]", but the fact that Pfizer got involved still made things more complicated. they didn't want liability. | 00:16 |
| LjL | of course i suppose that Pfizer has more production ability than BioNTech alone. but still, it meant they wanted things to be done "the american way". | 00:17 |
| bin_bash | Random but interesting. My doctor recommended I wait for the J&J vaccine and get that one because she thinks it's more broad. This was communicated indirectly via the front desk as I forgot to ask her directly and they called me back, but I'm interested in it. | 00:33 |
| LjL | bin_bash, "more broad" as in more likely to work against variants? | 00:34 |
| bin_bash | that's what i'm wondering. or maybe broader protection conferred to children? it was in the context of getting the vaccine before after or during pregnancy | 00:37 |
| LjL | bin_bash, oh. well none of these vaccines have been tested during pregnancy, fwiw, so personally... well personally i'd have some difficulty getting pregnant, but anyhow, i'd try to get it before | 00:39 |
| bin_bash | i think i'll trust my doctors :P | 00:39 |
| LjL | sure | 00:39 |
| LjL | i'm sure your doctors would prefer you got it before, too, but they become available when they become available | 00:39 |
| LjL | you are aware of J&J's efficacy? | 00:40 |
| bin_bash | no she said either before, during, or after | 00:40 |
| bin_bash | yep | 00:40 |
| bin_bash | that's why i find it interesting | 00:40 |
| bin_bash | it irritates me that pregnant women are often excluded from vaccine trials but it's really critical to know how it impacts them | 00:42 |
| de-facto | bin_bash, interesting did your doc said what she meany by "more broad" and why she thinks that Janssen would have such properties? | 00:59 |
| de-facto | afaik (correct me if im wrong) all of the current vaccines are mono-clonal (based on the same Wuhan S-protein variant) and not poly-clonal (integrating a variety of variants for the S-protein) | 01:00 |
| de-facto | or did J&J intend to integrate multiple variants of the s-protein template into their final product? | 01:01 |
| de-facto | just curious if something is different about them | 01:01 |
| bin_bash | de-facto: no like i said, it was an indirect communication as i forgot to ask her when i was seeing her and the message was conveyed. otherwise yeah it'd wouldve been a more indepth convo. when i see my obgyn im gonna ask them too to get a bunch of opinions | 01:01 |
| bin_bash | de-facto: thats why im not sure what exactly she meant | 01:01 |
| bin_bash | if like it would confer more broad protection to the child somehow | 01:02 |
| bin_bash | i found it surprising mysrlf | 01:02 |
| bin_bash | myself** | 01:02 |
| bin_bash | i may schedule a virtual appt with her to go over it and get more details | 01:02 |
| bin_bash | cuz i was genuinely surprised by that. i expected her to be like "do the moderna one and do it before or early in the pregnancy" | 01:03 |
| bin_bash | because doing it early on may confer more immunity | 01:03 |
| de-facto | well in terms of pregnancy the question probably is more about experience or data to be able to do some statements based on something other than wild guesses | 01:04 |
| de-facto | i am not aware if such data exists | 01:04 |
| bin_bash | yeah i'm trying to find it | 01:04 |
| bin_bash | i read something recently | 01:05 |
| bin_bash | It was about a different vaccine fwiw | 01:05 |
| bin_bash | not the covid one | 01:05 |
| de-facto | afaik pregnant women have an increased risk for a little bit more severe covid and also for thromboses but i dont know anything about vaccinations during pregnancy | 01:06 |
| de-facto | https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations/pregnancy.html | 01:07 |
| bin_bash | yeah | 01:08 |
| de-facto | idk the more people use a vaccine the better the stats about side effects | 01:12 |
| de-facto | hence id look about which of the vaccines got most stats about being given to pregnant women and at what time in pregnancy | 01:13 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Seychelles: +147 cases (now 1436), +1 deaths (now 6) since a day ago — Netherlands: +5302 cases (now 1.0 million), +69 deaths (now 14381) since 23 hours ago | 01:16 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: UK plans to tax firms that profited from pandemic: Sunday Times → https://is.gd/kRUUOt | 01:20 |
| bin_bash | there aren't any yet | 01:28 |
| bin_bash | there aren't any studies on it yet | 01:28 |
| bin_bash | that's why i'm wondering if there's some study circulating for pre-peer recview that she's privy to | 01:28 |
| CoronaBot | /r/covid19: The World Mortality Dataset: Tracking excess mortality across countries during the COVID-19 pandemic (81 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250604v1 | https://redd.it/le19o1 | 01:29 |
| bin_bash | but de-facto totally agree, thats normally what i try to look at | 01:31 |
| bin_bash | im mostly curious if anyone had heard anything special about the j&j. | 01:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Down's syndrome: Mother says she wouldn't change a thing: Kassie Carlyle hopes her experience will give comfort to those having babies with Down's in lockdown. → https://is.gd/QIwVxr | 01:45 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | there was gossip about some women in phase3 didn't know they were pregnant and when they found out later it been recorded of course to the study data and none of them suffered any known issues, neither their kids (prolly only very few cases known so far) | 01:47 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | did I hear of one case where rhey tested the baby right during/after birth and found a pretty good antibody reaction? hmmm | 01:49 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | yep, was a TV report where the mother reported that | 01:50 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Montserrat: +2 cases (now 15) since 6 months ago | 02:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: South Korea Beat Back Covid. The U.S. Didn’t. Growth Data Suggest It Paid Off to Contain It. → https://is.gd/EMco0T | 02:21 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +18494 cases (now 3.9 million) since 19 hours ago | 02:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Covid: Oxford-AstraZeneca jab protection against South Africa variant 'limited', study suggests → https://is.gd/snIejZ | 03:33 |
| LjL | uuuugh | 03:43 |
| LjL | and also "ugh" at "where IS the study?" | 03:44 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for New Zealand: +5 cases (now 2320) since a day ago | 03:45 |
| ubLIX[m] | to be published Monday? | 03:59 |
| ubLIX[m] | https://old.reddit.com/user/Ogwin123 | 03:59 |
| LjL | ubLIX[m], oh, it says that? i literally can't read things anymore tonight | 04:20 |
| LjL | i already made a couple of blunders related to F-Droid | 04:20 |
| LjL | ubLIX[m], is that the Financial Times article? | 04:20 |
| ubLIX[m] | yes i believe so | 04:20 |
| * LjL reports as copyvio | 04:21 | |
| LjL | (not really) | 04:21 |
| ubLIX[m] | couple of comments later in the thread: https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/le66f7/oxfordastrazeneca_covid_jab_far_less_effective/gma8oln/ | 04:21 |
| LjL | ubLIX[m], underwhelming | 04:23 |
| LjL | i think if there is basically no difference in how many people get COVID in the vaccine vs control arm... | 04:23 |
| LjL | unless/until we have bigger numbers to say so, the default assumption should be there is no changes in severe cases and deaths either | 04:23 |
| LjL | "Until we find a person who has been vaccinated, catches the SA variant, and subsequently requires hospitalisation or dies, I’m not going to give these articles a second thought. Anything less than that I couldn’t care less. Even then it would only be an issue if it was common." ← what a stupid comment | 04:24 |
| bin_bash | ugh idiot | 04:31 |
| LjL | ubLIX[m], Doc said at this point, with governments being very unlikely to do anything more restrictive to tackle the variants (on the contrary, they are loosening restrictions), he's basically just "prepping" now. how do you feel about that? is it time to expect the worst? i feel kinda like i was feeling... almost exactly one year ago | 05:18 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | mmmph, paywalled | 05:18 |
| LjL | i've also read a creepy article that said that for some reason, it's now cheaper to send empty containers to China than to move around filled containers. i didn't understand the reason, but if it's true, well, containers are a pretty damned important thing for the movement of goods | 05:19 |
| LjL | DocScrutinizer05, what is paywalled? if the FT article, seems https://old.reddit.com/user/Ogwin123 posted a copy | 05:19 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | ta | 05:19 |
| ubLIX[m] | being from the UK, given our performance, i'm fatalistically skewed towards cynicism. the seemingly inevitable production lag for vaccine updates feels like a most unhappy spectre | 05:20 |
| LjL | i'd have at least bought a GVS respirator if it didn't appear that my face is just the right size for neither the S/M nor the M/L model being appropriate with a high degree of certainty | 05:25 |
| LjL | i already have an oxygen concentrator... not sure what else i should be doing | 05:25 |
| LjL | drugs, maybe | 05:26 |
| ubLIX[m] | i want to entertain the hope the vaccination will hold down illness severity and transmission, but hope is doing all the work in that sentiment | 05:26 |
| LjL | ubLIX[m], at least, in your country vaccination is proceeding quickly, albeit with a fair amount of Oxford/AZ | 05:26 |
| LjL | here we may as well not have vaccines | 05:27 |
| LjL | i learned that our pharmacy provides a vitamin D measurement service from peripheral blood | 05:27 |
| LjL | do you think it's worth doing, me and my parent (it's done on appointment), or the usefulness of the information is offset by the risk of being in the pharmacy for some time, and we may as well just take vitamin D without knowing our levels? | 05:28 |
| ubLIX[m] | i'd probably just take it as best you can judge a reasonable dose. you will have considered the few conditions for which it is contraindicated | 05:29 |
| -Synapsestorm- 🏠 Linog! Lindol! Earthquake! 5.9 M tremor, registered by EMSC,alomax, with 39 reports, 5 early, occurred 8 minutes ago (04:22:58 UTC), during daytime, Matti, Philippines (6.8, 125.27) ± 2 km, ↓12 km likely felt 100 km away (in Davao City…) by 4.9 million people (www.seismicportal.eu) | 05:31 | |
| ubLIX[m] | cynicism about the UK: perhaps vaccination and summer will afford the UK some respite, and low cases burden; but will that provoke the government into mounting a competent track/trace/isolation program? hope springs eternal | 05:32 |
| ubLIX[m] | LjL: then again, there is the idea that 4000 IU is considered the maximum safe dose outwith clinical supervision, whereas doctors can prescribe numbers like 50,000 IU when a patient is found to be really deficient | 05:37 |
| LjL | ubLIX[m], and we're taking 1000 IU, which is what my mom was prescribed when found deficient (under previous guidelines, now magically her values are considered okay, which is convenient if you don't want to pay for her medical-grade vitamin D) | 05:39 |
| LjL | also, you can now only be prescribed a vitamin D test by healthcare if you are known to have a vitamin D deficiency | 05:40 |
| LjL | which is the typical thing our healthcare does. you can be tested only if you already know you have the condition. | 05:40 |
| de-facto[m] | We need more vaccine production cap and updates | 05:41 |
| LjL | we know, de-facto[m], we know | 05:41 |
| LjL | write to your MPs or something, even if you keep saying it here in a loop, we... know :P | 05:42 |
| ubLIX[m] | de-facto: when you're done writing to your MP, become an MP too | 05:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Where did Covid come from? Investigator foreshadows fresh clues → https://is.gd/qdaYvk | 05:48 |
| LjL | meh, that article is so... "we're all friends and we're discovering Great Stuff together in China and it totally can't be a lab leak" | 05:52 |
| LjL | and in the end they mainly look at the food market | 05:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: China’s Covid vaccine drive is falling behind US, Europe → https://is.gd/dlU9Xc | 06:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Oxford COVID vaccine less effective against South African variant: study → https://is.gd/jAKeSv | 06:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid testing expanded to more workplaces in England: Businesses with more than 50 staff are now able to access lateral flow tests, which give rapid results. → https://is.gd/Om1B90 | 06:25 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +2438 cases (now 723870), +57 deaths (now 21352) since 23 hours ago | 06:33 |
| Brainstorm | New preprint: Assessing knowledge, concerns, and risk perceptions among Italian medical students during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. by Manfredi Greco et al, made available as preprint on 2021-02-06 at https://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2021.02.04.21250922 [... want %more?] | 06:58 |
| gigasu_shida | ljl: tested only if one knows he already has the condition? | 07:16 |
| gigasu_shida | that doesn't make much sense at all | 07:16 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Mayotte, France: +1209 cases (now 10755), +1 deaths (now 64) since a day ago — Pasco, Peru: +233 cases (now 8279), +5 deaths (now 192) since 2 days ago — France: +23091 cases (now 3.3 million), +151 deaths (now 78867) since 11 hours ago — United Kingdom: +7998 cases (now 3.9 million), +312 deaths (now 112199) since 13 hours ago | 08:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Li Wenliang: 'Wuhan whistleblower' remembered one year on → https://is.gd/LdGfwb | 08:27 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | February 07, 2021: The World Health Organization maintains up-to-date and global information. Please refer to our Wiki for additional information. You can find answers to frequently asked questions about Covid-19 and vaccines in our FAQ . → https://is.gd/ZKbGy3 | 09:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Putin's once-scorned Sputnik V is now a favourite in the fight against Covid-19 → https://is.gd/GzjW5Z | 10:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Facebook rejects jab advert to promote vaccinations - said the content was "shocking". → https://is.gd/BlwWzu | 10:42 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +10559 cases (now 2.3 million) since 21 hours ago | 11:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Suicides in Japan dropped for a decade. Then the pandemic hit. → https://is.gd/QjsdI5 | 11:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Dubai imposes fresh Covid restrictions amid criticism over surge in cases → https://is.gd/Wezq2s | 12:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: UK says COVID-19 booster and annual vaccinations very probable → https://is.gd/6wftYz | 12:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: First doses of COVID-19 vaccine arrive in Afghanistan from India → https://is.gd/DSHQ7k | 12:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from Category: SARS-CoV-2 variants on Wikipedia: Rich Farmbrough at 12:37, 7 February 2021: ← Previous revision Revision as of 12:37, 7 February 2021 Line 1: Line 1: + {{Main|Variants of SARS-CoV-2}} [[Category:SARS-CoV-2]] [[Category:SARS-CoV-2]] → https://is.gd/2D91Vs | 13:44 |
| cle1408 | hello please like | 14:00 |
| cle1408 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mXRl2uXYaeg | 14:00 |
| de-facto | suggestion: add subtitles so people can understand whats it about | 14:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: ‘Something has gone seriously awry’: Supreme Court strikes down California’s Covid ban on church worsip → https://is.gd/a0z7Qt | 14:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Afghanistan gets Covishield vaccine doses from India → https://is.gd/v6fJHB | 14:33 |
| de-facto | .title https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/01/11/science.abe6522 | 14:37 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From science.sciencemag.org: Immunological characteristics govern the transition of COVID-19 to endemicity | Science | 14:37 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Kuwait: +962 cases (now 170998), +2 deaths (now 966) since 18 hours ago | 15:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Pfizer expects to cut COVID-19 vaccine production time by close to 50% as production ramps up, efficiencies increase → https://is.gd/eXjW2F | 16:24 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +8487 cases (now 2.3 million) since 23 hours ago — Switzerland: +6 deaths (now 9612) since 18 hours ago | 16:29 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | ^^^ >>Pfizer expects to nearly cut in half the amount of time it takes to produce a batch of COVID-19 vaccine, from 110 days to an average of 60, as it makes the process more efficient and production is built out, the company told USA TODAY.<< | 16:45 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | de-facto: ^^^ | 16:45 |
| CoronaBot | /r/covid19: ChAdOx1 nCov-19 provides minimal protection against mild-moderate COVID-19 infection from B.1.351 coronavirus variant in young South African adults (87 votes) | https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-02-07-chadox1-ncov-19-provides-minimal-protection-against-mild-moderate-covid-19-infection | https://redd.it/lem0pu | 16:46 |
| jacklsw | what's that? get another covid-19 strain to protect against other covid-19 strains? | 16:47 |
| hirogen | i heard cuba made it's own vaccine | 16:48 |
| hirogen | wow | 16:48 |
| hirogen | i know they produce a ton of doctors | 16:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Greek Leader Caught Attending 50 Person Party During Lockdown → https://is.gd/3p21pr | 16:49 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>The increased speed and capacity is not unexpected, said Robert Van Exan, president of Immunization Policy and Knowledge Translation, a vaccine production consulting firm. “Nobody’s ever produced mRNA vaccines at this scale, so you can bet your bottom dollar the manufacturers are learning as they go. I bet you every day they run into some vaccine challenge and every day they solve it and that goes into their playbook,” he said. | 16:49 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | << | 16:49 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +86 deaths (now 20709) since 23 hours ago | 17:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Sunday 07 February 2021 Update: submitted by /u/HippolasCage to r/CoronavirusUK → https://is.gd/LOugIk | 17:27 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +11379 cases (now 3.9 million), +400 deaths (now 112287) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +3994 cases (now 1.0 million), +53 deaths (now 14425) since 21 hours ago | 17:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: UK says COVID-19 booster and annual vaccinations very probable → https://is.gd/YcPyle | 18:03 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +270 deaths (now 91273) since 23 hours ago | 18:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Pandemic could end in 7 years at current pace of vaccination → https://is.gd/Eaz84B | 18:16 |
| lazysundaydreams | %cases Italy | 19:46 |
| Brainstorm | lazysundaydreams: In Italy, there have been 2.6 million confirmed cases (4.4% of the population) and 91273 deaths (3.5% of cases) as of an hour ago. 34.4 million tests were performed (7.6% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 2.0% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 4.1% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Italy for time series data. | 19:46 |
| Chico | Is there a place to trace the side affect of the different covid vaccines? | 20:09 |
| CoronaBot | /r/coronavirus: 59.3 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines distributed, 39 million administered: U.S. CDC (10012 votes) | https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-usa-cdc/593-mln-doses-of-covid-19-vaccines-distributed-39-mln-administered-us-cdc-idUSL1N2KD00G | https://redd.it/led0jr | 20:17 |
| Chico | You're the slowest bot I've ever seen in my whole life... lol | 20:18 |
| Chico | Thanks anyways. | 20:18 |
| Chico | How many side effects? | 20:18 |
| de-facto | yes all the agencies giving the approvals are collecting stats about side effects | 20:23 |
| de-facto | one example http://wonder.cdc.gov/vaers.html | 20:24 |
| de-facto | beware the percentages are given for the current selection of the query | 20:25 |
| de-facto | (hence *not* normalized to vaccine doses given or such) | 20:25 |
| Chico | I'll check it out. | 20:27 |
| Chico | The website is temporarly down? lol | 20:28 |
| de-facto | ooh last time i used it it worked | 20:28 |
| de-facto | maybe it became too popular? | 20:28 |
| de-facto | try to revisit it tomorrow i guess | 20:29 |
| Chico | Could be. What was the percentage of side effects if you recall that? | 20:29 |
| CoronaBot | /r/coronavirus: Pfizer expects to cut COVID-19 vaccine production time by close to 50% as production ramps up, efficiencies increase (10001 votes) | https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/02/07/pfizer-expects-cut-covid-19-vaccine-production-time-almost-50/4423251001/ | https://redd.it/lelzp2 | 20:29 |
| de-facto | oof difficult question, they published number of probably 100 different side effects i think from ~10k entries in their database, most common was headache or such | 20:30 |
| de-facto | it was a very good website, one could do a specific query and even get description texts for the cases | 20:31 |
| Chico | No deaths yet? | 20:32 |
| de-facto | oh there were some of course | 20:32 |
| Chico | I mean, older types of vaccines had more severe side effects. I believe RNA is an improved vaccine? Or am I wrong? | 20:32 |
| de-facto | i dont remember how deaths many, but it is expected because very old people die and some of them do that in a timeframe close to vaccinations given, especially very weak elderly may not be able to deal with side effects that are just mild for younger and healthy people | 20:35 |
| de-facto | *i dont remember how many deaths | 20:35 |
| Chico | Yeah, I've read about the older in stage 8 of the rating . | 20:35 |
| de-facto | i think it went through the news when Norway changed their recommendation to not give it to very old or weak | 20:37 |
| Chico | Could be. | 20:37 |
| Chico | Which of the vaccines available would you go for? | 20:38 |
| LjL | Chico, Norway had some deaths iirc | 20:38 |
| LjL | as to the actual rate of side effects, it's really difficult to determine that from "yellow card" reports | 20:38 |
| LjL | the closest you get are the ones in the actual trials, IMO | 20:38 |
| LjL | from yellow card reports you can see if some side effect simply occurs *many* time, but as to the actual rate, it's tricky to determine what the denominator should be, because you can't assume all side effect *are* reported | 20:39 |
| de-facto | i think i would go for one of the mRNA vaccines if i had the choice, but really i would happily take any of those that got approved by EMA and PEI (German vaccine and bioproducts approval agency) | 20:39 |
| LjL | as to the bot by the way, it wasn't replying to you, it was just posting news :P | 20:39 |
| LjL | i would also go for an mRNA vaccine, especially now that it looks like AstraZeneca may have very little efficacy on the SA variant | 20:39 |
| de-facto | LjL, can confirm that the VEARS website worked a few days ago | 20:39 |
| LjL | i assume i won't be given a choice, but if i were, i'd take that | 20:39 |
| Chico | LjL ah therefore the slow bot. lol | 20:39 |
| LjL | yes it did work | 20:40 |
| Chico | I believ you de-facto | 20:40 |
| Chico | So side affects shouldn't be to worry about if we look at the trials. | 20:40 |
| LjL | Chico, well, i'd say to look at the trials yourself. it's honestly a subjective matter. it's not like they *don't* have side effects, in fact mild and even moderate ones are kind of frequent with some vaccines. in the case of mRNA ones, the second shot tends to have more side effects | 20:41 |
| Chico | LjL iirc? | 20:41 |
| LjL | but *personally* from what i've been able to judge, i'd definitely take an mRNA vaccine over the risk of getting actual COVID | 20:41 |
| LjL | COVID has a ton of side effects, including long-term ones for many :( | 20:41 |
| Chico | The actual risk of Covid is 2% right? | 20:41 |
| LjL | no, i wouldn't say that... | 20:41 |
| LjL | you mean the risk of catching it, or the risk of dying from it if you catch it? | 20:42 |
| Chico | The risk of dying? | 20:42 |
| Chico | . | 20:42 |
| de-facto | the real question is: does the benefit from the vaccine outway the risk from COVID for a specific group of people? <-- this has to be evaluated individually for each group | 20:43 |
| LjL | well, it's not clear, but yes, i'd say it's around that ballpark | 20:43 |
| gigasu_shida | the long term side effects of both a covid infection and an mRNA vaccine are still largely unknown | 20:43 |
| LjL | (other people may still say it's more like 0.1% if it's treated correctly, but honestly at this point i don't believe that) | 20:43 |
| gigasu_shida | however, i think i'd rather go with the vaccine | 20:43 |
| LjL | but look, the problem isn't just dying | 20:43 |
| LjL | many people who get COVID take a long time to recover, and may not recover from some symptoms at all | 20:43 |
| LjL | and we don't even know long-term systemic effects | 20:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Dr. Anthony Fauci says second vaccine doses should not be delayed 'based on the scientific data that we have' → https://is.gd/Qfp78l | 20:44 |
| Chico | I think vaccine handling is done very amateurish. | 20:44 |
| Chico | Imo | 20:44 |
| Chico | But I'm not sure we know the long term effects of cov vaccine. | 20:44 |
| LjL | gigasu_shida, for now though, we *know* that COVID can (easily) have long-term effects, while with the vaccine we have no indication yet of people whose side effects don't just go away (except the ones who died... but they were really outliers in terms of age/pathology) | 20:44 |
| Chico | In Nigeria a bunch of woman got infertile.... | 20:45 |
| Chico | Not cov vaccine though. | 20:45 |
| Chico | But who knows what happens in long term. | 20:45 |
| LjL | well, COVID itself has repeatedly been suggested to cause infertility (in men, though) | 20:45 |
| LjL | there's more than one study about that | 20:45 |
| gigasu_shida | whoa i didn't know about the male infertility | 20:46 |
| LjL | Chico, but think about it, the risk of *catching* COVID (that's why i asked before) approaches 100% over time if we don't get vaccinated. and it seems clear to me that the "side effect" profile of COVID is much worse than the side effect profile of mRNA vaccines | 20:46 |
| LjL | unless we keep strict (very strict, especially with the new variants) distancing/lockdown forever, there's nobody (unvaccinated) who can claim not to be at risk of getting COVID | 20:47 |
| Chico | That's true, but why rush it if the vaccine isn't 100% safe yet. That's why I'm wondering whether it's 100% safe. | 20:47 |
| LjL | they may not be at high risk of dying from it, but they are still at risk of getting chronic symptoms from it | 20:47 |
| Chico | I agree there. | 20:47 |
| de-facto | the density of ACE2 receptors in male testicle is quite high, hence SARS-CoV-2 could attack there, but a vaccine itself presents the other part of that, the antigen (s-protein) so it does not target ACE2 or such, i see no reason to assume it would cause infertility in men (yet i see one for COVID) | 20:47 |
| Chico | I actually don't know anyone that died or knows someone that died. Do you? | 20:47 |
| LjL | why rush it - because especially now with the variants (the first one identified was the UK variant, and i don't think it's a coincidence the UK is vaccinating at a very high rate now), there is *no time* before the population catches COVID at never-seen-before rates | 20:48 |
| de-facto | but afaik its under investigation just because its given to so many people, to make sure it does not affect fertility, and afaik they did not find any negative effects on fertility from the vaccine so far | 20:48 |
| LjL | Chico, i don't know anyone personally, but i know people who know people who have died. i also know that my aunt and my cousin got it, but they recovered well. i also know people who know people who have NOT recovered well at all, and are still struggling after months. finally, i know (not sure if i can easily find it) a paper/article that goes into the statistical reasons why, even though COVID has caused so many deaths, for an individual, it's *not* very | 20:49 |
| LjL | likely that they know someone who's died | 20:49 |
| Chico | That's true. But why did mistakes like 40k woman infertile and etc... happen in not so long ago history? Weren't those tested? | 20:49 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +184 deaths (now 78900) since 23 hours ago | 20:50 |
| de-facto | i think at some point the COVID vaccines will be the best tested vaccines in history | 20:50 |
| Chico | LjL, I keep asking this question to people and only few know people. Yet people have 100s of friends on social media. | 20:50 |
| Chico | Brainstorm, that's scary. | 20:50 |
| Chico | That's true de-facto. I like how they research it. | 20:50 |
| LjL | Chico, i'm the wrong person to ask then, IRC and Reddit are the only social media i use | 20:50 |
| Chico | Same here lol. :) | 20:51 |
| LjL | Chico, one person joined here for some days but after a while freaked out because someone else was being insensitive, and this person had lost his grandfather to COVID. so i think it's also to be taken into account that people who have COVID or have had loved ones die from it are not exceptionally likely to come here. | 20:52 |
| LjL | it may seem counterintuitive since it's the topic of the channel, but it's really not | 20:52 |
| Chico | That makes sense. | 20:52 |
| LjL | (by "freaked out" i mean "left") | 20:52 |
| de-facto | yet as you say its under research still, data is constantly collected and evaluated, for example we dont have much data for younger people or pregnant or people with special conditions | 20:52 |
| Chico | I understand your point. | 20:52 |
| Chico | I hope they wait with pregnant people until later. | 20:52 |
| de-facto | but more and more data is accumulated hence at some point we will know an gigantic amount of information on how the widely given COVID vaccines behave even for rare risk groups | 20:53 |
| Chico | Data and science should be more open source. I think covid research is very public. That builds trust. If the data is honest. Which I believe it is. | 20:54 |
| LjL | uff... i wanted to find this article I remember reading about how the statistics are "tricky" in that few people actually know people who've gotten COVID and/or died | 20:54 |
| de-facto | so for example those phase III trials tried to target a representative cross section of the large majority of the target groups, yet they excluded some (e.g. those with history of anaphylactic allergic reactions etc) | 20:54 |
| LjL | but the only keyword I can think of to search for in my logs is "statistically" | 20:54 |
| LjL | and that word has been used here like... a TON of times :P | 20:55 |
| gigasu_shida | i've had anosmia and brain fog for months and it was probably due to a strong coronavirus infection and effects on me were actually pretty profound | 20:55 |
| Chico | LjL, it's fine. I'll take your word for it :) | 20:55 |
| LjL | Chico, well it's interesting to read | 20:55 |
| Chico | That's sad to hear. I hope your recover soon. | 20:55 |
| gigasu_shida | this was years ago | 20:55 |
| gigasu_shida | in any case, i see now that many hardcore viral infections can be avoided if we just wear a mask | 20:56 |
| Chico | Years ago? Aren't you talking about Cov 19+ | 20:56 |
| LjL | gigasu_shida, wow, human coronaviruses (other than SARS, MERS and our friend here) don't usually cause things that bad | 20:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Germany: Politicians, virologists facing 'rising hostility from COVID deniers'. Germany's top federal police investigator has said German society is currently emotionally charged with COVID-19 deniers projecting their threats at politicians, virologists and journalists → https://is.gd/XQMiWa | 20:56 |
| gigasu_shida | no, i'm talking about a different coronavirus (not sure but i had anosmia and similar common cold symptoms) | 20:56 |
| Chico | I guess you'll have to be extra careful with covid 19 then. | 20:56 |
| LjL | gigasu_shida, how do you know it was a coronavirus? there are, like, many viruses in existence :( | 20:57 |
| gigasu_shida | ljl that may be because most people just get mild infections | 20:57 |
| Chico | Brainstorm, people lost their trust in authorities. | 20:57 |
| gigasu_shida | because it wasn't the flu ljl | 20:57 |
| LjL | Chico, you keep talking to Brainstorm but that's a bot too :P | 20:57 |
| gigasu_shida | there aren't any other viruses that cause anosmia ljl | 20:57 |
| Chico | What?! :O | 20:57 |
| de-facto | now they are collecting more data for younger people (idk the exact age, but slowly and carefully approaching children), and also for more elderly (e.g. for the AstraZeneca trials), so agencies constantly update their recommendations, yet only approve vaccines they are sure to be safe for the target group | 20:57 |
| LjL | gigasu_shida, well i didn't know that coronaviruses caused it either (except for SARS-COV-2) | 20:57 |
| gigasu_shida | yeah, they can, anecdotally. i've asked a lot of people i know and they said it's very common. it's just not well documented in the literature | 20:58 |
| LjL | de-facto, we have a bunch of bots in this channel, Brainstorm posts news from a number of places and responds to commands such as | 20:58 |
| LjL | %cases Norway | 20:58 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: In Norway, there have been 64724 confirmed cases (1.2% of the population) and 582 deaths (0.9% of cases) as of 3 hours ago. 3.5 million tests were performed (1.9% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.6% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 1.0% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Norway for time series data. | 20:58 |
| Chico | Maybe MERS, some think it's related to Sars-Cov2 | 20:58 |
| gigasu_shida | it's unfortunate that many coronaviruses appear to be poorly studied | 20:58 |
| LjL | Chico, MERS is (fortunately) pretty rare though, because if you get it, chances you will die are *very* high, at least an order of magnitude higher than COVID | 20:59 |
| gigasu_shida | the only positive of anosmia is that it makes you lose weight | 20:59 |
| Chico | Until now nobody cared. I heard Mers has a 30% death rate and Sars 15% | 20:59 |
| LjL | gigasu_shida, i guess aside from SARS, MERS and SARS-2, they are all lumped together into the "common cold" syndrome | 20:59 |
| de-facto | LjL, ?? | 20:59 |
| gigasu_shida | yeah, poorly studied because they aren't so dangerous probably | 21:00 |
| LjL | i'm not sure there are many other syndromes where we *know* that there are separate and different pathogens at work, and yet we call the disease with just one name | 21:00 |
| LjL | de-facto, what? | 21:00 |
| * de-facto pets Brainstorm | 21:00 | |
| * Brainstorm starts to better de-facto with some innovative infatuation | 21:00 | |
| LjL | de-facto, oh, haha sorry | 21:00 |
| LjL | i wanted to address Chico with that, not you | 21:00 |
| LjL | meaning: Chico, we have a bunch of bots in this channel, Brainstorm posts news from a number of places and responds to commands such as | 21:01 |
| Chico | Thanks for informing me LjL | 21:01 |
| gigasu_shida | we must campaign to stop the promulgation of the term 'common cold'. it's very annoying | 21:01 |
| gigasu_shida | we must lobby our governments and corporate healthcare entities to give the option of testing for coronaviruses along with influenza viruses | 21:02 |
| LjL | good luck with that... | 21:02 |
| de-facto | since you are talking about endemic HCoVs, found an interesting article earlier about how SARS-CoV-2 might become endemic too | 21:03 |
| de-facto | .title https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/01/11/science.abe6522 | 21:04 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From science.sciencemag.org: Immunological characteristics govern the transition of COVID-19 to endemicity | Science | 21:04 |
| LjL | "might", uh ;( | 21:05 |
| de-facto | its a very interesting read imho | 21:05 |
| LjL | de-facto, the thing about the thesis in that study, and in other things i've read that made similar claims, is "... suggesting that once the endemic phase is reached and primary exposure is in childhood, CoV-2 may be no more virulent than the common cold" | 21:06 |
| LjL | emphasis on primary exposure being in childhood | 21:06 |
| LjL | it means that for us all who have... already been born, it will continue to be a big threat unless we get vaccinated | 21:06 |
| LjL | it won't magically become "just a cold" *for us* | 21:06 |
| LjL | (even acknowledging the fact that "just a cold" may be a somewhat serious disease actually, like in gigasu_shida's case) | 21:06 |
| de-facto | yeah probably not until being "introduced" to how to deal with it somehow | 21:07 |
| de-facto | either by natural recovery in early childhood or by vaccination | 21:07 |
| gigasu_shida | i don't follow your reasoning ljl | 21:07 |
| LjL | gigasu_shida, it's not really my reasoning, it's the reasoning in that paper | 21:07 |
| gigasu_shida | what does having been exposed in childhood have to do with it continuing to be a big threat | 21:08 |
| gigasu_shida | it's a big threat either way | 21:08 |
| de-facto | they even go so far to say that constant reinfection ensures it "stays mild" hence may even prefer the less effective vaccines (in terms of transmission suppression) | 21:08 |
| LjL | gigasu_shida, it will be a threat in a similar way to how the other human coronaviruses are a threat, in a few *decades* | 21:08 |
| LjL | whether that's big or small i'll leave it for you to judge | 21:08 |
| gigasu_shida | even if it just exists in small pockets and mainly targets adults after mutating again and again it's still a major threat | 21:08 |
| LjL | but that's the thesis | 21:08 |
| gigasu_shida | oh in decades, yeah, i could see that | 21:09 |
| de-facto | the big thread would be to those not having been exposed to the pathogen for long time (e.g. encountering a new variant for which their immune system is completely naive) | 21:09 |
| LjL | yes, when many people start having had it as children, and thus building up immunity against it while not having had a severe case of it (as children rarely do) | 21:09 |
| Chico | I think mutation will be less of an issue after herd immunity. | 21:09 |
| LjL | de-facto, and that will remain a threat because of animal reservoirs... the same way the flu can suddenly become a much bigger threat than usual | 21:09 |
| de-facto | well yeah unfortunately | 21:10 |
| gigasu_shida | lol sorry i misread the original quotation from ljl and i was confused | 21:10 |
| LjL | Chico, but it will quite possibly be a bigger issue *during* vaccination campaigns, because if we don't vaccine most people quickly (and we won't), the vaccine itself may put some selective pressure on the virus | 21:10 |
| Chico | Super infection like? LjL | 21:11 |
| LjL | Chico, just encouraging a mutation that escapes the vaccine | 21:11 |
| Chico | That would be sad. Actually a temporary lockdown until majority is vaxxed would be helpful. | 21:12 |
| LjL | the South African mutation already seems to largely escape at least the AstraZeneca vaccine (the paper about that will be published tomorrow, the study had around 2000 participants) | 21:12 |
| LjL | Chico, at the pace at which the EU is vaccinating, that "temporary" will mean a veeeery long time :\ we must pick up much more pace | 21:12 |
| de-facto | i mean of course we would hope for eradication of SARS-CoV-2, but we also have to be honest and consider that it may be much more likely it will stay in some form, hence we should think about how to arrange with its presence without too much impact on daily life and if it only would be mild that could be the case | 21:12 |
| Chico | I'm really amazed by the speed of EU | 21:13 |
| LjL | the US has been criticized a lot in its handling of the pandemic, and for good reasons, but even the US is vaccinating much faster than the EU | 21:13 |
| Arsanerit | How could the EU be vaccinating faster if the vaccines it's ordered aren't delivered faster? | 21:13 |
| de-facto | ^^ | 21:13 |
| Chico | Also true Arsanerit | 21:14 |
| LjL | well, i'm just saying it's not | 21:15 |
| LjL | i haven't even blamed them | 21:15 |
| de-facto | the EU invested a lot into research and did get some successful candidates (more to come) which is absolutely awesome, but did not think early enough about scaling up production in a massive industrial scale (that is the current challenge) | 21:15 |
| LjL | but i could blame them if you want | 21:15 |
| LjL | they bet on the wrong vaccines | 21:15 |
| LjL | de-facto doesn't like me to bring up past mistakes but i will anyway if you go defensive about it :P | 21:15 |
| de-facto | well to be fair, noone knew back then what we know by now | 21:16 |
| LjL | https://www.dw.com/en/covid-vaccines-largely-unwanted-at-first-slowed-eu-talks-report/a-56480023 | 21:16 |
| LjL | %title | 21:16 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: From www.dw.com: COVID vaccines largely unwanted at first, slowed EU talks: report | News | DW | 06.02.2021 | 21:16 |
| LjL | de-facto, yes, but i think being so wary of mRNA vaccines wasn't warranted even back then, if one knew the big advances made in the past decades with them, even though they hadn't been used on people | 21:17 |
| de-facto | some (USA et al) bet on the more risky candidates (back then it was not clear if mRNA vaccines would work so well) | 21:17 |
| LjL | but anyway, i'm just saying that if one blames only the vaccine producers for being slow, well, i can also blame the EU for picking the wrong vaccine producers, whether or not it was intentional | 21:17 |
| LjL | i'm sure it wasn't intentional, but i'm sure AstraZeneca's sites in Europe having "bad yield" wasn't intentional either | 21:17 |
| Chico | Thanks for all the info, gtg. | 21:18 |
| LjL | see ya | 21:18 |
| Chico | ^ | 21:18 |
| de-facto | even if i constantly keep saying we need more this and that, all in all its awesome how far we have come in just one year, i am just a very impatient person especially when teased with a plausible solution in the near future | 21:19 |
| gigasu_shida | that is troubling that the SA-mutation appears to be fought by the AstraZeneca vax | 21:21 |
| gigasu_shida | appears to escape the AZ vax* | 21:21 |
| gigasu_shida | sorry need coffee | 21:21 |
| de-facto | also the Brazilian one | 21:21 |
| de-facto | and probably also the new occurence of E484K in the British one | 21:21 |
| de-facto | might even be a convergent antigenic drift if E484K occured several times independently | 21:22 |
| de-facto | (meaning the specific advantage (its evasive capabilities) occur in some semi deterministic way under the similarity of the selective immune pressure) | 21:23 |
| Arsanerit | I guess when this is all over someone is going to calculate number of lives lost due to EU vaccine strategy (hindsight is 20/20...). | 21:23 |
| de-facto | actually i think the strategy was fine, they could have bought more of each, yet as you say it does only help if the also deliver, maybe they could have build up capacity in advance tough, yet how to know for which vaccine production lines? | 21:27 |
| gigasu_shida | you're a bit over my head today de-facto =) | 21:27 |
| Arsanerit | If they buy 100 and get 30, I don't see how buying 200 or 300 would have helped. | 21:29 |
| de-facto | what i meant is maybe it (the evasive mutants such as E484k) were somehow pre-determined by the environment in which viral replication occurs under the selective pressure by partial (waning) immunity | 21:29 |
| de-facto | gigasu_shida, ^^ | 21:29 |
| de-facto | idk if that is the case though (convergent antigenic drift under similar selection) | 21:30 |
| gigasu_shida | can partial immunity in a population exert selective pressure? | 21:31 |
| de-facto | yes i think so | 21:31 |
| de-facto | imagine viral replication taking place on a cellular level, a diversity of random mutations occurs from the initial infection variant | 21:32 |
| de-facto | most of the mutations are some defect or disadvantage leading to unfit virions, hence are irrelevant (and hever heard from) | 21:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from Virological.org: Latest posts: @tvinar Tomas Vinar: B.1.258∆, a SARS-CoV-2 variant with ∆H69/∆V70 in the Spike protein circulating in the Czech Republic and Slovakia → https://is.gd/1ScAO5 | 21:33 |
| gigasu_shida | well i can see how it can exert selective pressure if the partial immunity is not random | 21:33 |
| de-facto | some might have changes in the RNA but no changes in the proteins or even in the properties | 21:33 |
| gigasu_shida | like if mainly a certain age group becomes immune | 21:34 |
| de-facto | some of the mutations though may hit the rare case that they randomly discovered an adantage under the current selective pressure they have to face from partial (non-neutralizing) immunity | 21:34 |
| de-facto | those wiht such an advantage then have some (partial) escaping capabilities such as the E484K mutation or the 69-70-deletion (maybe) | 21:35 |
| gigasu_shida | oh, THAT kind of partial immunity | 21:36 |
| gigasu_shida | i didn't understand that's what 'partial immunity' meant | 21:36 |
| de-facto | basically if viral replication is not neutralized (but only selected) by partial immunity it still is replicating (and accumulating mutations) that will be selected according to all the factors in that environment where replication happens (and the immunologic selection pressure is part of that) | 21:36 |
| de-facto | if immunity is neutralizing replication will stop hence also "bruteforcing" evasive mutants | 21:37 |
| gigasu_shida | that makes sense actually. but i need to study partial/non-immunizing "immunity" now | 21:40 |
| de-facto | maybe it also could have to do something with compromised immune systems, e.g. would people with AIDS (destroyed immune system by HIV) have the ability to neutralize SARS-CoV-2 fast enough to prevent an evasive mutant to occur? | 21:40 |
| de-facto | what about immuno-compromised that were given antiviral drugs that may increase mutation rates of SARS-CoV-2? | 21:41 |
| de-facto | what about such that were given monoclonal antibodies (or cocktails?), what about if convalescent plasma cant constantly adjust due to feedback from a dynamic immune system? those would be "static" neutralizing vectors hence if not completely "centered" with their neutralizing diversity would probably induce some direction of antigenic drift evading their neutralization maximum | 21:44 |
| gigasu_shida | i wonder if elevated body temperature gives a riper environment for mutations to occur | 21:46 |
| de-facto | id assume a fit immune system got the ability to dynamically adjust to antigenic drift (by some sort of feedback loops), hence always somehow "surround" the spreading phylogenetic tree of a pathogen with an even bigger diversity of neutralization capability | 21:47 |
| gigasu_shida | there's a lot of factors involved but your compromised immune system question is interesting | 21:47 |
| de-facto | and i even think with vaccines we should somehow mimic that fit immune system, constantly collecting a representative cross section of the current most virulent variants and integrate their sequences into the s-protein templates of the vaccines, making them polyclonal (including many variants), thereby closing the feedback loop | 21:48 |
| gigasu_shida | are we on the cusp of making nearly-real-time modifications to vaccines like what you describe? | 21:52 |
| gigasu_shida | does mRNA technology allow on-the-fly updates to vaccines ? | 21:53 |
| de-facto | btw it does not even have to be a compromised immune system, its simply a question of probability (for randomly occuring mutations): the more viral replications are allowed to take place under the selective pressure of some (not directly neutralizing) immunity the higher the probability of such an evasion mutant to occur | 21:53 |
| de-facto | gigasu_shida, yes i think so, afaik BioNTech one stated they would need something like 6 weeks to integrate an update into their vaccine (only the technical process, not talking about approval or re-scaling production etc) | 21:54 |
| de-facto | but out out interest: how high is HIV prevalence in Manaus/Brazil? afaik its quite high in SouthAfrica... | 21:55 |
| de-facto | could it also have something to do with antiretroviral medications? possibly increasing SARS-CoV-2 mutation rates or such? (careful thats pure speculation) | 21:56 |
| gigasu_shida | wow biontech's mRNA technology is amazing | 21:58 |
| gigasu_shida | antiretroviral meds could do weird things to viral infections of other types | 21:59 |
| gigasu_shida | well of any type | 21:59 |
| gigasu_shida | yeah they could exert influence i think | 21:59 |
| gigasu_shida | we already see quite a few antiviral meds that have i would say a profound impact on covid infections | 21:59 |
| de-facto | idk about that, remdesivir was not such a success story | 22:04 |
| de-facto | the problem with antiviral meds is that their effect is exponentially more pronounced the earlier they are given (in the initial exponential viral replication phase): in that phase most are not severely ill or even have symptoms hence not in hospital for receiving antiviral therapy | 22:06 |
| de-facto | and some of them may increase mutation rate significantly (hence putting pressure on the virulence by weakening the pathogens fitness) | 22:07 |
| de-facto | so what if the therapy is not sterilizing the infection hence only helping with bruteforcing under non-neutralizing immune pressure? | 22:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: South Africa halts rollout of AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine after shot falters against variant: South Africa is halting its rollout of the AstraZeneca-Oxford Covid-19 vaccine, following a new analysis that suggests the shot “provides minimal protection” against mild disease caused by the new coronavirus… → https://is.gd/Hte5Wm | 22:10 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.unaids.org/en/regionscountries/countries/southafrica | 22:10 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.unaids.org: South Africa | UNAIDS | 22:10 |
| de-facto | vs | 22:10 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.unaids.org/en/regionscountries/countries/brazil | 22:11 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.unaids.org: Brazil | UNAIDS | 22:11 |
| de-facto | not so much in Brazil, yet maybe with some hotspots there? | 22:11 |
| de-facto | .title http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0037-86822015000800070 | 22:17 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.scielo.br: HIV/AIDS epidemic in the State of Amazonas: characteristics and trends from 2001 to 2012 | 22:17 |
| de-facto | surely most cases occured in Manaus there, but also most people from Amazonas live there id assume | 22:18 |
| de-facto | hmm | 22:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Melbourne hotel quarantine worker tests positive to coronavirus → https://is.gd/aMt1dG | 22:22 |
| de-facto | actually id like to have a multiplication for maps of COVID deaths and either HIV infections or deaths to see if there are any hotspots | 22:22 |
| de-facto | actually it seems to be quite complex https://www.unaids.org/sites/default/files/media_asset/2020_aids-data-book_en.pdf | 22:24 |
| de-facto | https://ourworldindata.org/hiv-aids | 22:30 |
| de-facto | hmm idk | 22:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid-19 News: South Africa Halts Use of AstraZeneca Vaccine → https://is.gd/z9RTGr | 22:34 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | >>South Africa halts rollout...<< *sigh* | 22:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Vaccine strategy needs rethink after resistant variants emerge, say scientists → https://is.gd/WeqN07 | 22:47 |
| de-facto[m] | Is the level of protection from vaccines against the SA variant proportional to the immunity reserve from a vaccine, i.e. correlates to the expected protection time? All of them right now should be based upon the same wuhan spike protein, right? | 22:57 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +1 deaths (now 9613) since 6 hours ago | 23:00 |
| de-facto | what is wrong with reddit, always hiding the most important link the most | 23:12 |
| de-facto | "There was virtually no difference in the numbers of people in the vaccine and placebo groups who were infected with B.1.351, suggesting that the vaccine did little to protect against the new variant. Nineteen of the 748 people in the group that was given the vaccine were infected with the new variant, compared to 20 out of 714 people in the group that was given a placebo." | 23:14 |
| px | I'd probably avoid reddit if I'm looking for objective data.. | 23:16 |
| LjL | woah :( | 23:16 |
| de-facto | (20÷714−19÷748) ÷ (20÷714) ~ 9.31% | 23:16 |
| LjL | expected, but still a blow | 23:16 |
| LjL | px, that's just some nonsense that people who haven't used a site sometimes say | 23:16 |
| de-facto | thats... almost non-existent id say | 23:16 |
| LjL | de-facto is getting the link *from* reddit which is not *reddit* | 23:16 |
| LjL | it would be rather absurd to say that a BBC article, or a clinical study, is "not objective" just because... it was *linked from* reddit?! | 23:17 |
| LjL | i'm tired of this sort of attitude really | 23:17 |
| LjL | and reddit has a lot of insightful comments, too, if you aren't too busy complaining about how they're all crap | 23:17 |
| de-facto | yeah the link is https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/02/07/world/covid-19-coronavirus?auth=login-google&campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20210207&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=headline®i_id=140834901&segment_id=51190&user_id=b6ec2e4bf907a2b5d9bb6bddc187f6da | 23:17 |
| de-facto | LjL, i wonder how long they waited for the immunity to build up for those stats | 23:18 |
| LjL | or... that, without all the GET parameters :P | 23:18 |
| LjL | de-facto, well tomorrow we'll have the full study, right? | 23:18 |
| de-facto | oh indeed they allow that too https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/02/07/world/covid-19-coronavirus | 23:19 |
| de-facto | i thought those were required because someone on reddit said something about limited access then paywalled or such | 23:19 |
| px | lol insightful comments. you mean insightful comments which have made it past the up/down vote peer-review | 23:20 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | w.title https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/panorama/corona-britische-variante-geimpfte-positiv-100.html | 23:21 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | .title https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/panorama/corona-britische-variante-geimpfte-positiv-100.html | 23:21 |
| Brainstorm | DocScrutinizer05: From www.zdf.de: Britische Corona-Variante: 14 Geimpfte positiv getestet - ZDFheute | 23:21 |
| Brainstorm | DocScrutinizer05: From www.zdf.de: Britische Corona-Variante: 14 Geimpfte positiv getestet - ZDFheute | 23:21 |
| LjL | px, no, i don't, because i tend to read through threads | 23:21 |
| LjL | you don't know what i mean so don't put words in my mouth | 23:21 |
| rpifan | oh | 23:21 |
| LjL | what i can see is that you've never talked here before except now to say that reddit sucks | 23:21 |
| LjL | what's your point? | 23:21 |
| rpifan | tthats bad | 23:21 |
| px | you mean the comments that still exist and haven't been pruned? | 23:21 |
| de-facto | also if they received LD/FD or FD/FD schemes | 23:22 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | .tr <de 14 Geimpfte positiv auf B.1.1.7 getestet. Trotz Impfung infiziert? Das ist möglich, wie nun 14 Fälle aus einem Alten- und Pflegeheim bei Osnabrück zeigen. | 23:22 |
| Brainstorm | DocScrutinizer05, German to English: 14 vaccinated people tested positive for B.1.1.7. Infected despite vaccination? This is possible, as 14 cases from a nursing home near Osnabrück show. (MyMemory, Google) — 14 *Geimpfte positively at *B.1.1.7 tested. Despite inoculation infected? This is possibly, how now 14 cases from a #alto- and #nursing home near *Osnabrück show. (Apertium) | 23:22 |
| pigughs | https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/02/07/world/covid-19-coronavirus | 23:23 |
| px | whoa | 23:23 |
| LjL | pigughs, yeah, we just saw :\ | 23:24 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, dangit :/ | 23:24 |
| LjL | pigughs, i can't read NYT right now (soft paywall) so maybe it already says that, but tomorrow the official study should be out that this decision is based on | 23:24 |
| pigughs | LjL: can turn off javascript to read if able | 23:24 |
| LjL | but basically, AZ doesn't work on the SA variant, and *maybe* it has a protective effect only on severe disease, but honestly i find that unlikely (and not possible to say from the data) | 23:24 |
| LjL | pigughs, i don't have an extension to do that, but often also using archive.org works... anyway it was just to say that i might be saying something that the article already covers | 23:25 |
| pigughs | LjL: you don't need an extension its in browser preferences | 23:25 |
| LjL | well i'm afraid i need javascript for other websites, i'm not quite prepared to do without yet :P so the extension would be to disable it selectively | 23:26 |
| LjL | anyway it doesn't matter | 23:26 |
| pigughs | hmm actually in FF maybe not, but in chrome it is | 23:26 |
| LjL | now what i wonder is, will these findings extend to other adenovirus vaccines? | 23:27 |
| LjL | or even to the mRNA vaccines? (probably less likely since i think they produce a stronger immune response) | 23:27 |
| de-facto | content of the article https://pastebin.com/7y18n0Ai | 23:28 |
| LjL | thanks. i'm reading it at https://web.archive.org/web/20210207222445/https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/02/07/world/covid-19-coronavirus | 23:28 |
| pigughs | https://paste.debian.net/hidden/7bc402e6/ | 23:28 |
| px | the az is a single dose that was known to be less effective than the lnp-based ones. perhaps it's not that surprising | 23:29 |
| LjL | "The clinical trial participants who were evaluated were relatively young and unlikely to become severely ill, making it impossible for the scientists to determine if the variant interfered with the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine’s ability to protect against severe Covid-19, hospitalizations, or deaths." ← so the earlier rumors that it still protected against severe disease were not just based on too little data... they were just nonsense | 23:29 |
| pigughs | de-facto: lol sorry | 23:29 |
| LjL | px, no, AZ is two doses | 23:29 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | .tr <de Asymptomatische oder leichte Verläufe der Erkrankung. Bei 14 Senioren sei das Virus B.1.1.7. nachgewiesen worden - obwohl alle Bewohner am 25. Januar zum zweiten Mal geimpft worden seien, teilte der Landkreis am Sonntag mit. | 23:29 |
| LjL | the only single-dose vaccine around currently is J&J | 23:29 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | expected | 23:29 |
| Brainstorm | DocScrutinizer05, German to English: Asymptomatic or mild courses of the disease. In 14 seniors, the virus is B.1.1.7. has been proven - even though all residents were vaccinated for the second time on January 25, the district announced on Sunday. (MyMemory) [... want %more?] | 23:30 |
| de-facto | px i think its primer and booster, most efficient in half-dose, full-dose scheme according to their trial | 23:30 |
| LjL | de-facto, i believe they ditched the "half-dose" theory and now they think it's about the longer time distance between the two | 23:30 |
| de-facto | DocScrutinizer05, well thats bad news, because its after their booster BNT162b2 shot | 23:30 |
| LjL | de-facto, aiui, most the people who got half-dose-full-dose *also* happened to get the booster later. and now they think that was the thing that helped, not the half dose. | 23:30 |
| pigughs | so is the SA variant in the UK much? | 23:30 |
| LjL | pigughs, maybe not "much", but around enough to be unstoppable, i'm afraid | 23:31 |
| LjL | let me grab nextstrain... | 23:31 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | no serious course, so it's well in line with what was to expect. We never _really_ hoped for "sterile immunity", did we? | 23:31 |
| LjL | DocScrutinizer05, ugh | 23:31 |
| de-facto | LjL, interesting that could make sense (well both affects, vector immunity and later booster) | 23:31 |
| pigughs | bad news for the UK it seems | 23:31 |
| LjL | DocScrutinizer05, there is no indication that it *prevents* serious course | 23:31 |
| LjL | i just said it, based on the article :( | 23:31 |
| LjL | and we talked about it yesterday based on people's reddit comments, which were actually insightful, for a change | 23:32 |
| LjL | you can't take 20 healthy young people and say "oh, there was no hospitalizations or deaths, HENCE it means that the vaccine protects against that" | 23:32 |
| LjL | it just doesn't follow | 23:32 |
| de-facto | well if they showed positive on antigen tests... its bad news because then they had high viral loads | 23:32 |
| de-facto | probably being infectious, hence quarantining their families | 23:32 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | LjL: sorry, I interfered with your chat, my comment was unrelated | 23:32 |
| LjL | DocScrutinizer05, oh okay | 23:33 |
| de-facto | about that elderly home form DocScrutinizer05 i meant | 23:33 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | as I said - We never _really_ hoped for "sterile immunity", did we? | 23:34 |
| de-facto | id di hope for that | 23:34 |
| de-facto | didnt we all? | 23:34 |
| de-facto | well but its in the elderly with the old Wuhan spike vaccine type | 23:35 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I never really believed that we see a 100% sterile immunity in 100% of vaccinated people | 23:35 |
| de-facto | so room for improvement | 23:35 |
| LjL | DocScrutinizer05, pigughs: anyway, if it's of interest, i was referring to these comments (mainly the highlighted ones) from the study news from yesterday, that de-facto spotted: https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/le66f7/oxfordastrazeneca_covid_jab_far_less_effective/gma8oln/ | 23:35 |
| de-facto | ofc not 100% but above herd immunity would be very useful | 23:35 |
| LjL | i definitely did hope for sterile immunity or at least "immunity that doesn't make you infectious" | 23:35 |
| LjL | not sure why i shouldn't have been hoping for it | 23:35 |
| LjL | without it, you can't have herd immunity | 23:36 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I seen that, yeah it's ... *my* jury is still out on that | 23:36 |
| LjL | and everyone was definitely talking about using the vaccine to get herd immunity (the proper way to get it, rather than letting everyone catch the disease) | 23:36 |
| LjL | DocScrutinizer05, you just can't say it protects. our jury is still out too. all we're saying is that "you can't say it protects". i am not saying "it definitely does not protect against severe disease" | 23:37 |
| LjL | but there's absence of evidence from the data we have so far | 23:37 |
| de-facto | i think its pretty clear by now that the vaccines need updates (unfortunately) | 23:37 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | actually the amount of virus load ist unclear so far. So also if they are infectious. Though it's likely they infected one another and not all from one spreader, but that's now just my wild guess | 23:38 |
| de-facto | sure they may protect from severe progressions still, but having demonstrated their potential in the studies it would be a shame if new variants were not integrated hence them having their full potential | 23:39 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I'll shut up for an hour, this is too mixed up topics right now here | 23:40 |
| LjL | pigughs, i said i would bring up Nextstrain to show where the South African strain is outside of South Africa, but I'm not sure I actually know how to show that... I have this page https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global?f_region=Europe but I'm not really sure which 501Y mutant is the SA one. maybe de-facto can help | 23:41 |
| de-facto | id go with E484K | 23:41 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I fully agree this >>Asymptomatic or mild courses of the disease. In 14 seniors, the virus is B.1.1.7. has been proven - even though all residents were vaccinated<< is not any good news for sure | 23:43 |
| pigughs | appreciate it, but if the UK is mostly using AZ, are they also going to stop using it | 23:43 |
| de-facto | LjL, Dr Emma Hodcroft always has the latest builds linked in her twitter at https://twitter.com/firefoxx66 | 23:44 |
| pigughs | guess I was reading there are 4000 strains | 23:44 |
| LjL | pigughs, the UK is unlikely to outright stop using AZ... they were the major better on it :\ | 23:44 |
| LjL | of course I don't have a crystal ball, but... | 23:45 |
| LjL | de-facto, right, E484K is the nasty one, N501Y may just confer easier transmissibility. i can't remember all these numbers | 23:45 |
| pigughs | problem somewhat with vaccines, is trust, if you give them a jab and it is shown to not have efficacy later, 2nd time may be more difficult | 23:45 |
| de-facto | so the sa variant would have N501Y and K417N with E484K but not 69-70-del als the UK variant | 23:46 |
| de-facto | the uk variant only recently seems to have aquired E484K | 23:47 |
| LjL | ! | 23:47 |
| LjL | it did? | 23:47 |
| de-facto | it was not here befire | 23:47 |
| LjL | that's horrible news | 23:47 |
| LjL | i didn't know that | 23:47 |
| de-facto | i think so https://nextstrain.org/groups/neherlab/ncov/S.E484?c=gt-S_484&label=mlabel:19A/T3037C&p=grid&r=country | 23:47 |
| de-facto | yes especially for AZ vaccine in UK | 23:47 |
| LjL | pigughs, well so look at de-facto's link for the distribution of... maybe it's no longer "the SA variant", but anyway, the variant that is likely to escape the AZ vaccine :( | 23:49 |
| de-facto | https://nextstrain.org/groups/neherlab/ncov/S.E484?c=gt-S_484 | 23:49 |
| de-facto | overview: https://nextstrain.org/groups/neherlab | 23:50 |
| de-facto | well keep in mind the following: these are number of sequences, not number of cases | 23:50 |
| LjL | in particular the yellow ones here are probably nasty https://nextstrain.org/groups/neherlab/ncov/S.E484?c=gt-S_484 | 23:50 |
| LjL | ah i'm late | 23:50 |
| LjL | and in "Filter data" you can look for what they are in a specific country, etc | 23:51 |
| LjL | or you can just hover on the dots and see what place it was sequenced in | 23:51 |
| de-facto | so they will have significant bias: if one SA variant is found the likelihood that all the follow up cases are traced and sequenced too is much higher than if it only was "ordinary" uk variant (in uk for example), hence there is bias | 23:51 |
| LjL | de-facto, yup. i have an idea! what if we allocated 1% of the testing and sequencing capacity to a random sample of people?! | 23:53 |
| * LjL runs away | 23:53 | |
| de-facto | lol | 23:53 |
| de-facto | yeah something like https://www.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/research-and-impact/groups/react-study/ REACT1 with sequencing | 23:54 |
| de-facto | but oh well, i would be glad if they did more sequencing (or at least somewhat comparable to how they did it before) in order to have some time trends | 23:56 |
| de-facto | from Denmark I took the percentage of B.1.1.7 variant and my fit came out as Rb117 = 144% Rclassic hence it doubles every tdouble = tserial Ln(2) / Ln(1.44) = tserial 1.9 = 5.2 1.9 = 9.88 days | 23:58 |
| DocScrutinizer05 | I hope BNT is already working on a VOC-mRNA, so in 4 months we will see _new_ vaccines | 23:58 |
| de-facto | i hope so too, but before they just waved it away with "hey we got that pseudovirus assay against (selected) point mutations and its still effective in those" | 23:59 |
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