libera/##covid-19/ Saturday, 2021-02-27

BrainstormNew from Shane Crotty: @profshanecrotty: J&J 1-dose COVID vaccine nears FDA authorization.https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN2AQ1G1https://is.gd/hHfdkq00:09
BrainstormNew from FDA Press Releases: FDA Statement on Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee Meeting: Following a positive advisory committee meeting outcome regarding the Janssen Biotech Inc. COVID-19 vaccine, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has informed the sponsor that it will rapidly work toward finalization and issuance of an [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/49UIHX00:22
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +8667 cases (now 4.2 million) since 22 hours ago00:25
BrainstormNew from Shane Crotty: @profshanecrotty: R to @profshanecrotty: So, no perfect interpretation. Well, it's not a perfect world. The new J&J vaccine definitely works, and my advice is that you take whichever of these three vaccines you are offered in America (Pfizer, Moderna, or J&J). It is WAY better than not being vaccinated! → https://is.gd/Xj2mv800:34
LjLDidn't people used to say quite similar things about HIV lacking a "causal relationship" with AIDS00:40
LjLCorrelation doesn't imply causation except when it does to people who aren't bonkers00:40
BrainstormNew preprint: Virus capture facilitates a sensitive viral diagnosis for pathogens including SARS-CoV-2 by Claudia Wylezich et al, made available as preprint on 2021-02-26 at https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-276400/v101:02
CoronaBot/r/covid19: Johnson & Johnson Single-Shot COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate Unanimously Recommended for Emergency Use Authorization by U.S. FDA Advisory Committee (80 votes) | https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-single-shot-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-unanimously-recommended-for-emergency-use-authorization-by-u-s-fda-advisory-committee | https://redd.it/lta74y02:06
BrainstormUpdates for Paraguay: +1414 cases (now 157603), +17 deaths (now 3152) since a day ago — British Virgin Islands: +39 cases (now 153) since 23 days ago — France: +12762 cases (now 3.7 million), +565 deaths (now 86147) since 22 hours ago — Germany: +418 deaths (now 70421) since 10 hours ago02:23
skruffen[m]😊02:36
BrainstormNew from Virological.org: Latest posts: Phylogenetic relationship of SARS-CoV-2 sequences from Amazonas with emerging Brazilian variants harboring mutations E484K and N501Y in the Spike protein: Update: COVID-19 epidemic in the Brazilian state of Amazonas was driven by long-term persistence of endemic SARS-CoV-2 lineages and the recent emergence of the [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/RPNQ1103:15
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express (Health): Fashion: Ananya Panday gives perfect lockdown fashion goals in latest pictures → https://is.gd/USgxud04:43
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +7801 cases (now 2.4 million) since 13 hours ago — New Zealand: +1 cases (now 2372) since a day ago05:29
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express (Health): Fashion: Emporio Armani nods to 1980s in fall line at Milan Fashion Week → https://is.gd/CFgbEr05:57
BrainstormUpdates for Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, Ukraine: +857 cases (now 62807), +12 deaths (now 1153) since 23 hours ago — Vinnytsia Oblast, Ukraine: +738 cases (now 35360), +7 deaths (now 645) since 23 hours ago — Chernivtsi Oblast, Ukraine: +638 cases (now 53713), +6 deaths (now 980) since 23 hours ago — Biobio, Chile: +636 cases (now 71833), +9 deaths (now 1266) since 23 hours ago08:22
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | February 27, 2021: The World Health Organization maintains up-to-date and global information. Please refer to our Wiki for additional information. You can find answers to frequently asked questions about Covid-19 and vaccines in our FAQ . → https://is.gd/oHRCC609:06
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Joe Biden scores legislative win as House passes $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief plan → https://is.gd/2nbs5j10:08
CoronaBot/r/coronavirus: Biden says US ‘weeks ahead of schedule’ and will be first country to 100 million vaccinations (10064 votes) | https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-covid-vaccine-texas-shots-b1808351.html | https://redd.it/ltatuq10:27
BrainstormUpdates for Estonia: +1569 cases (now 64399), +9 deaths (now 584) since 23 hours ago11:04
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronavirusUK: Update on hospital admissions and hospital deaths in England from COVID-19 Actuaries → https://is.gd/n0XE5412:35
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +7815 cases (now 2.4 million) since 20 hours ago12:43
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Could mutations of SARS-CoV-2 suppress diagnostic detection? → https://is.gd/gtkIZ913:13
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_ITALIA: SONDAGGIO VACCINI: Su scala da 1 a 5, quanto ritenete possibile che almeno il 75% della popolazione italiana verrà vaccinata contro il COVID-19 entro la fine del 2021? → https://is.gd/XgPYK613:25
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_ITALIA: Russia-Austria, consultazioni per fornitura e produzione del vaccino Sputnik V → https://is.gd/DU3BlX13:38
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: New Zealand's largest city goes into lockdown after 1 new Covid-19 case found → https://is.gd/slxW3t15:42
bn_mobileAre these sensitivity #s quotes in Wikipedia for RT-PCR suspect?  "Sensitivity of clinical samples by RT-PCR is 63% for nasal swab, 32% for pharyngeal swab, 48% for feces, 72–75% for sputum, and 93–95% for bronchoalveolar lavage [37]" -https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing#Detection_of_the_virus  63% sounds pretty damn terrible15:55
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express (Health): Art and Culture: Lincoln Center to emerge from pandemic with outdoor shows → https://is.gd/lG4d4R16:08
BrainstormNew from This Week In Virology: TWiV 724: COVID-19 clinical update #51 with Dr. Daniel Griffin: In COVID-19 clinical update #51, Daniel Griffin reviews use of two masks, effectiveness of testing in nursing homes, updates on vaccines, use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, little effect of vitamin D and remdesivir in clinical studies, and a long [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/m77ard16:32
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronavirusUK: Saturday 27 February 2021 Update → https://is.gd/Pv4JIW17:23
LjLde-facto: TV just saying our 0.1% of sequencing is directly below Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Oman. Imagine knowing the prevalence of variants here...17:50
LjLbn_mobile: it matches what we found the other day of a 67% maximum... :/17:54
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: New Zealand's largest city Auckland back to lockdown after COVID-19 case → https://is.gd/2lv2VU18:00
bn_mobileFWIW source [37] comes from the "Indian Journal of Gastroenterology"18:05
bn_mobileLjL: can you remind me what that was?18:08
LjLbn_mobile: I don't remember the source, it comes from the other day's discussion of Cordero, I can look at the logs later18:09
bn_mobileOh, you mean the 2 of 3 test results were false negatives of his?18:10
LjLNo I mean that during the discussion someone, possibly me, found a statement that PCR for COVID has a best-scenario reliability of 67%18:11
BrainstormNew from Derek Lowe: @EricTopol: RT by @Dereklowe: Good infographic of difference between the mRNA vaccines compared with the J&J adenovirus vector vaccine@WSJGraphics → https://is.gd/MCXPJ018:13
LjLde-facto: about the cuts in vaccine deliveries, since I was complaining some days ago but I had lost track of just what the cuts were (although maybe it was Doc insisting to know the cuts because he didn't think there were many, I'm not sure), anyway TV has just given some data citing GIMBE as a source although I haven't found this on GIMBE's website: in total, we have received 31.8% of the doses expected for the first trimester, where AZ has had a -87% cut,18:15
LjLModerna -81.6%, Pfizer -55.3%18:15
LjL%papers Neanderthal18:32
BrainstormLjL, 2 papers: COVID-19 risk haplogroups differ between populations, deviate from Neanderthal haplotypes and compromise risk assessment in non-Europeans by Inken Wohlers et al, made available as preprint on 2020-11-03 at https://biorxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.11.02.365551 [... want %more?]18:32
LjL%more18:32
BrainstormLjL, [...] COVID research initiative from NIH. → https://paste.ee/p/XQMsZ18:32
BrainstormLjL, [...] The major genetic risk factor for severe COVID-19 among Europeans does not show any association among Indian populations by Prajjval Pratap Singh et al, made available as preprint on 2021-01-31 at https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-194412/v1https://paste.ee/p/PdQ2m18:32
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +8182 cases (now 4.2 million), +327 deaths (now 122590) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +5015 cases (now 1.1 million), +49 deaths (now 15571) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +3083 cases (now 864307), +44 deaths (now 21931) since 20 hours ago — Italy: +280 deaths (now 97507) since 23 hours ago18:37
BrainstormNew from Shane Crotty: @profshanecrotty: R to @profshanecrotty: Completely separately, for the antibody aficianados: In the EUA package, evidence of vaccine-elicited antibody affinity maturation! Nice to see. 😁 → https://is.gd/LU6Niq18:38
bn_mobileLJL:  not sure how thorough their journalism is but see section on false negatives:  https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/health/coronavirus/fact-check-how-accurate-are-pcr-tests-for-the-novel-coronavirus-1.525735718:40
bn_mobile"According to PHAC, approximately 98 per cent of patients tested within two days of their exposure will still get a negative result from PCR tests. That number drops to 50 per cent over the first five days post-exposure, and 10 per cent after that until symptoms disappear."18:41
LjLSo 90% in the best case18:42
LjLThat seems a lot more than 67%. I don't know, maybe it just pertains to more recent iterations of testing18:43
bn_mobileThey also contradictorily recommend one get a test "1 day before symptoms" (not sure how one would do that) and then 4 paragraphs later (confusingly) say "that anyone who thinks they may have been exposed to COVID-19 wait a few days before seeking out a test"18:44
LjLbn_mobile: uh as far as I can see the former is not a recommendation, they just state that it's most detectable one day before symptoms18:46
LjLWhich is reasonable since it mostly matches the time when you are probably most infectious18:46
bn_mobileMy understanding is symptoms usually start in ~2 days, so perhaps after one day of suspected exposure date get tested, which may be difficult if it's on a weekend18:46
bn_mobileLjL:  the problem is all these sensitivity %s need to be normalized against the modality used + when they were sampled in relation to exposure date/symptoms18:48
LjL2 days doesn't match what I remember... Except for influenza18:49
bn_mobile"Symptoms may appear 2-14 days after exposure to the virus. "18:56
LjLbn_mobile, the 67% was from this comment https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/gaybyu/covid19_pcr_test_thoughts_on_false_results_and/fp8ikau/ which claims to take it from a Journal of Infectious Disease article but doesn't link to it18:56
LjLbn_mobile, yes, 2-14 days would indicate that the mean is probably more than 2 days18:56
de-factoLjL,  interesting, here i read in the news that people dont go for their AZ shots, only 15% of whats available seems to get injected18:56
de-factothey are talking about taking back all restrictions for AZ shots not understanding that undermines the trust even more18:57
bn_mobile2-14 is from the CDC18:57
LjLde-facto, okay give them to us then :P in the UK apparently only 1% of people 80+ refused their injection18:57
bn_mobileWhich is a big range18:57
LjLbn_mobile, yes, i believe the mean was found to be around 5 days18:57
LjLbut i don't have a source handy so if you want to believe that in a range of 2-14, it's usually 2, be my guest :P18:58
de-factoyeah its stupid, some podcasts of virologists were not exactly helpful when calling it 2nd class, although its clear it protects from severe progressions and fatalities quite well18:58
bn_mobileAZ shot?18:59
de-factonot sure about their schedules, afaik they are on 50% of planed deliveries or such19:01
LjLde-facto, meh look, it's not AZ, but look at the infographic Derek Lowe posted earlier... if my parents were in line for a vaccine, i guess i'll let them take whatever is offered, but i'd really really hope it's Pfizer or even better (suuuuure) Moderna and not J&J. the protection doesn't look even remotely comparable, including likely against severe disease. and AZ is probably worse than that, especially if (when?) the SA variant becomes prevalent19:01
LjLDerek Lowe meaning this <Brainstorm> New from Derek Lowe: @EricTopol: RT by @Dereklowe: Good infographic of difference between the mRNA vaccines compared with the J&J adenovirus vector vaccine@WSJGraphics → https://is.gd/MCXPJ019:02
LjLinfograph https://nitter.dark.fail/pic/media%2FEvP5dQIVgAIYjxo.jpg%3Fname%3Dorig19:02
LjLmaybe they shouldn't be called "second class" to avoid people refusing them19:02
LjLbut they are second class by any reasonable metric19:02
bn_mobileLjL:  I'm not suggesting that obviously, they can appear as early as 2.  My point was the ability to detect the virus with the best probability requires one to take it 1 day BEFORE symptom onset so unless one is clairvoyant, this is next to impossible19:03
LjLbn_mobile, well again they didn't tell you that they RECOMMEND you to do this. they just saw from the data that that's the time when they have the most reliability. should they not say it just because you cannot predict it?19:04
LjLand you don't need to be clairvoyant to know when you have been exposed to someone positive, you just need them to notify you19:04
bn_mobileOh, AstraZeneca19:05
de-factotbh i think classes dont make a sense because all of them are stll based on 1st "wuhan like" s-protein generation, so the type of immunity induced by them more or less plays in the same league except for some induce a bit stronger others a bit weaker immunity (which also seems to strongly depend on dosing schemes and scheduling, we only know for trials for sure, yet that does not mean further trials could not improve on that)19:16
de-factoi would be glad about any approved shot offered to me, timing matters more than if its 10% more or less effective19:16
de-factothey all still protect from severe progressions and fatalities afaik19:17
de-facto(which should be confirmed by running stats parallel to giving out shots in countries)19:17
bn_mobileLjL:  Whether it was recommended or not misses the point.  In re. to exposure date:  that may not be known 100% either (remember we're discussing the reliability of tests?).  Yes, ideally confirmed positive cases should inform others, but I think that's voluntary & there's a lag from initial exposure date (whenever that was) to confirmation19:18
LjLbn_mobile, well what *is* the point?19:18
bn_mobiles/voluntary/currently voluntary/19:18
LjLde-facto, i'm won't get tired of saying that whether AZ protects against the SA variant is undetermined19:19
LjLat least until they determine it19:19
bn_mobileMaximal detection "1 day before symptom onset" is difficult to actually do in practice19:19
LjL20 healthy people not getting "severe" is way below the threshold of evidence19:19
LjLbn_mobile, okay, and it was never suggested as a thing to do in practice, it was just stated as the topmost point in the reliability graph19:20
LjLobviously real-world reliability will be somewhere in the middle between best-time-to-take-it and worst-time-to-take-it19:21
de-factowell unfortunately since the SA variant is spread all over EU already soon we will know19:22
LjLde-facto, oh will we? when they mentioned or abysmal sequencing on TV, they said we simply have no idea about other variants than the UK variant, because we haven't sequenced them. so hopefully we'll know because the UK sequences them and is kind enough to tell us.19:24
de-factomy assumption that it will protect against severe progressions comes from 1) we dont have data to suggest the opposite 2) we have data that other vaccines producing similar s-protein (without the SA mutations) can give (some lowered) protection that is sufficient to protect against severe or fatal progressions19:24
LjLbut as to whether deaths are attributable to the SA variant in Italy, i suspect we'll have no clue for a long time19:24
LjLde-facto, what is this data you say in #2?19:25
de-factoafaik in Germany the SA variant already is in the single digit sequence percentages19:25
LjLand i already say i have no idea why you would default to assuming there is protection in #119:25
LjLthe only human study i know about is the one for AZ, and the only hard finding in it is that there is no protection from getting sick19:25
LjLthe mRNA studies are in vitro, and anyway, i'm pretty sure we won't get an mRNA vaccine so, if they protect, well, good for the people who do get them19:26
de-factoyes correct the mRNA ones are in vitro indeed19:27
bn_mobileI don't understand how no one else is not bothered by these wide variations in detectability when testing & the lack of proper normalization when test results are reported.19:27
de-factofor #2 i thought we just discussed about both mRNA and AZ being based on Wuhan spike with the mRNA ones employing those stabilizing point mutations in addition19:28
bn_mobileEveryone thinks "oh, PCR = super sensitive, results are unquestionable" when test timing makes a huge difference19:29
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Recent Commits to links:master: Add Italy&#39;s vaccine dashboard ( https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/f908b9158dbc503f157bfa05edf777df21801826 )19:31
LjLbn_mobile, it's not that i'm not bothered, but aside from getting these datapoints which we're getting from various places, what exactly am i supposed to do about it?19:32
LjLde-facto, well for #2 i think we just don't know that the protection "is sufficient to protect against severe and fatal progressions". they're welcome to do studies about it, so far they haven't. the studies that they *have* done may be slightly suggestive, nothing more. you can't take a cell culture and determine from it that people wouldn't die...19:33
bn_mobileLjL:  That is what I'm trying to grapple with figuring out, if test results are so "muddy", how is one supposed to act in an exposure scenario?  It seems like the only sane (but probably stressful) strategy (before vaccination) is to assume you got it19:34
LjLi think i've also seen some data from the UK about protection that were quite puzzling when compared to the Scottish data or the Israel data, but ugh once more i just remember seeing them but have no idea where i saw them or what keywords it contained to find them19:35
LjLbn_mobile, indeed, i believe some countries that are more serious about things just quarantine the contacts of positive people, regardless of their test result19:36
bn_mobile... & continuously monitor symptoms & all organs for the next 1-3 (?) weeks19:37
de-factoi think of it more like a best effort approach: we know its safe to take it when given like in the trials, it will offer some level of protection (that probably protects from fatal outcomes as mentioned above), hence we have to go for it19:37
de-factowe probably need updates to all of the vaccines anyhow at some point19:37
LjLmeanwhile, as usual no link to the actual study, but this seems important19:38
de-factobecause 1) immunity will wane off 2) variants will escape, hence we require updates to all of them19:38
LjL<CoronaBot> /r/coronavirus: 95% of former COVID patients suffer no irreversible damage, Israeli study finds (1004 votes)19:38
LjL<CoronaBot> https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-study-95-of-former-covid-patients-suffer-no-irreversible-damage/ | https://redd.it/lt8m9519:38
LjL(and also very much contradicting the one that said 44% still have symptoms after six months, which was also similar to numbers a hospital in Italy that studies long COVID patients reported today on TV)19:39
BrainstormNew from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Add Italy's vaccine dashboard → https://is.gd/hgNi6R19:39
bn_mobileLjL:  I was wondering more at the personal/individual level, ie:  if you tomorrow had symptoms, how would you act?   What would be your plan?  etc.  Government level actions are beyond your control.19:47
LjLbn_mobile, if i had symptoms i'd call my GP and i'd do what she says, because i can't even decide to get a test without her prescription19:47
bn_mobilein terms of diagnostic testing that is19:47
LjLalso if i had symptoms i'd treat myself as infected and quarantine19:48
LjLwhen the symptoms go away *and* i have a negative test, then i'd break the quarantine i guess, also considering that even if the test was a false negative, it's likely that after symptoms have gone away, i'm no longer infectious19:48
bn_mobileLjL:  interesting, in the US it seems one can now individually order COVID tests w/o a Dr or PRx.  One strategy I was thinking was to pre-order the test to have it nearby to maximize catching it  during the maximal detectability phase.19:52
bn_mobile"catching"19:52
LjLyou can order the test and then have it at any time?19:55
Arsaneritself test?19:55
bn_mobileLjL:  But maybe that strategy is a waste of resources, & it's best to just assume you got it & monitor symptoms + vitals for 2 weeks+?  I guess the only value is for knowing you could be contagious + contact tracing + invoking appropriate Covid knowledge if you suddenly go severe & need to go to a hospital.19:57
LjLbn_mobile, i don't know, i wouldn't get a test very lightly personally because if i don't have covid it means i'll be going to a place where it's probably quite likely i can get covid19:57
LjLa nice comparison: in one year, we sequenced 4000 patients, whereas the UK sequenced 25000020:02
LjLand we have an average time between taking the sample and sequencing it of 70 days, with spikes of 300 days20:03
LjLthe UK has an average of 24 days20:04
LjLthe UK sequences more than 10000 a week, while italy is *recommending* to try to reach 500 a week20:05
pwr22LjL: that's the advantage of running your country into the ground during the pandemic - I kind of think we have to have that level of vigilance to avoid the country totally collapsing 😀20:17
bn_mobileLjL:  I think so (order it & take it at home anytime).  Some are the less reliable antigen tests, but there is an at-home LAMP-type test kit + PCR based home non-blood collection kit but requires sending off to a lab for analysis & initial dr. approval to order.  LAMP test operates on a similar principle of amplifying viral genes (if present) to detection levels but is less accurate vs PCR:20:17
bn_mobilehttps://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/if-youve-been-exposed-to-the-coronavirus20:17
LjLhmm20:18
LjLwell considering PCR apparently is itself not so accurate...20:18
bn_mobileLjL:  I don't know what the shelf life of the accompanying reagents are though20:18
LjLthe rapid tests may be good to assess workers or student on a frequent basis20:18
CoronaBot/r/covid19: The use of aspirin for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease is associated with a lower likelihood of COVID‐19 infection (80 votes) | https://febs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/febs.15784 | https://redd.it/lttkiv20:19
LjLbut if you individually feel sick or have had contact with a sick person and want to know what it is, i'm not sure20:19
bn_mobileLjL:  But the benefit is you don't have to deal with dr. office hours/congestion (if any) + scheduling issues & can maximize taking the sample at the right time.20:21
LjLi guess20:22
LjLhonestly i've not really thought a whole lot about this. i'm a lot more worried about catching covid than determining whether i've caught it. though i guess it's reasonable to presume that the day i have a real suspicion of having caught it, i might regret not thinking more about the testing20:23
skruffen[m]rapid test seems unreliable too20:24
de-factoi think its better than nothing as long as people understand there are different levels of reliability20:25
pigassuif you test + on rapid test, then follow it up with a PCR?20:26
pigassudanger would be false - ?20:26
de-factothink of the following scenario: containment measures make gatherings illegal, people do it anyway and some of them develop symptoms. would they tell officials or rather "protect" their friends from fines? what if they could test themselves anonymously and at least be responsible enough to call them to tell so they could get tested too?20:27
de-factoyet one problem remains, even if they isolate that cluster all by themselves: official knowledge and control over the incidence is lost20:28
de-factobut compared to a scenario where they just hope for the best and avoid any test, anonymous quicktests are better imho20:28
LjLi've been using the replay function of RAI to try to find where they showed a chart with the percentages of people who have the given long-COVID symptoms... still haven't found it, bleh. they should have functionality like Google has where you can see a transcript of the subtitles and search within it. i'll stop looking now, wasted too much time already20:33
LjLhttps://np.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/lt8m95/95_of_former_covid_patients_suffer_no/gp2a2m9/?context=3 in case someone knowledgeable can answer that20:36
LjLalso, i've tried, but i have not found that Israeli study, the actual study, at all20:41
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: German commission may do U-turn on AstraZeneca jab for elderly: Germany's vaccine commission is considering reversing course and recommending AstraZeneca's COVID-19 jab for those over 65 after a study showed it to be effective among the elderly, its chairman has said. → https://is.gd/8Gru8d20:41
LjLsurprise...20:42
LjLde-facto, ↑20:42
de-factohmm this is psychology, even if genuinely only not approving for elderly because of the lack of data (that is the case), the damage already might have been done, will people think now *after* many refused the shot their motivation to approve for elderly does not come from new data available?20:47
LjLwell they say new data *is* available20:48
LjLi'd say it's pretty tenuous data, and just an excuse to change course20:48
de-factomy point20:49
de-factoah its the Scottland study comparing BioNTech with AZ we talked about here?20:51
LjLyes20:52
LjLexcept we talked about here of how the two are not comparable because of age differences20:52
LjLbut they seem to be using to say "hey look, AZ actually fares better than BNT in elderly!"20:52
LjLthey'd have to spin that study a fair bit to convince people20:53
skruffen[m]https://archive.is/KHWCg#selection-647.0-647.4020:55
skruffen[m]Global over-population is the real issue20:55
skruffen[m]By Boris Johnson20:55
skruffen[m]12:01AM BST 25 Oct 200720:55
LjLpoint being?20:56
skruffen[m]shouldnt we make sure more people get sick if over population is the problem?20:57
skruffen[m]get the 2 legged virus down to sustainable level20:58
bn_mobileLjL:  I was reviewing that reddit post you linked to earlier & trying to find the source in the journal he claimed but no luck:20:58
bn_mobilehttps://academic.oup.com/jid/search-results?q=(reliability%20AND%2067%25%20AND%2033%25%20AND%20Coronavirus)&allJournals=1&f_JournalTitle=The+Journal+of+Infectious+Diseases&fl_SiteID=5309&rg_ArticleDate=01%2f01%2f2020+TO+12%2f31%2f2999&qb=%7B%22q%22:%22reliability%22,%22q2%22:%2267%25%22,%22q3%22:%2233%25%22,%22q4%22:%22Coronavirus%22%7D&page=1 The poster sounded like some medical professional but I wonder if they20:58
bn_mobilewere confusing the timing & biopsy (?) modality effects on viral gene capturability vs the specificity  of PCR-based amplification methods itself.20:58
BrainstormUpdates for Switzerland: +5 deaths (now 9966) since a day ago — Netherlands: +5003 cases (now 1.1 million) since 22 hours ago21:00
bn_mobileskruffen[m] / pigassu :  supposedly the antigen tests rarely have false positives but more likely will generate a false negative (which healthcare providers usually follow up with a PCR).21:03
bn_mobileLjL:  I think the safest strategy is to assume you will eventually get it at some point (no matter how cautious or vaccinated you become) & have in place an action plan (with all branches pre-computed/planned) on what to do when x, y, or z failure is detected & occurs, because at that point you may be too f-ed up to think straight about these sort of things.21:07
LjLskruffen[m], if your suggestion is that more people die, i propose you start by giving the example. otherwise, don't come here gloating about people dying.21:07
bn_mobilefailure = major organ failure21:07
LjLbn_mobile, when i have major organ failure and am too fucked up to think straight, almost by definition i'm no longer allowed to decide for myself and doctors will21:08
LjLunless i get a hold of a suicide pill or something21:08
LjLbut my last name's not Putin21:09
bn_mobileskruffen[m]: BJ has some radical Malthusian ideas21:10
bn_mobileLjL:  which is why you want to pre-compute these decision points21:10
bn_mobile(as much as possible that is)21:11
bn_mobileI don't know about Italy but in the US I do not have any faith in the healthcare system.  It is way too easy for a patient to become a vegetable or die from patient mismanagement21:13
LjLbn_mobile: well I have an oxygen concentrator, that may tell you that I plan to try to remain at home as long as possible, although I mostly got it because it seemed hospitals may not have enough place for patients... But hey at each spike it seems like that again, so... Once I make the decision to go to the hospital, in Italy, doctors are mostly going to decide everything for me thereafter. If I refuse a given treatment they can, if they want, assess that my21:15
LjLmental faculties have gone down the drain and override my decisions21:15
bn_mobileUnderstaffing, lack of proper monitoring, apathy, mismanagement (from not enough time to research) , overworked/tired staff, etc.21:15
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Plunging demand for COVID-19 tests may leave US exposed: Just five weeks ago, Los Angeles County was conducting more than 350,000 weekly coronavirus tests, including at a massive drive-thru site at Dodger Stadium, as health workers raced to contain the worst COVID-19 hotspot in the U.S. → https://is.gd/c5mTKB21:19
bn_mobileThe system in hospitals here is stupidly setup to maximize staff burnout with the dangling "motivator" of "schedule flexibility" for the "high performing" staff.21:20
bn_mobileLjL: you seem like an intelligent, logical & analytical person, so why not use those faculties now to pre-compute the possible outcomes?  Wouldn't you rather be the one making those ultimate choices vs someone else?21:25
bn_mobileor at least have an educated  say in it?21:26
bn_mobileObviously we are not MDs, but we can consult various journals to research the results of studies re. evidence for/against something (based your own knowledge of your pre-existing conditions, if any), research is a luxury of time which a Dr. doing rounds in hospital won't have & will have to possibly make a snap decision on, basically relying on his/her experience (however long that may be)21:34
LjLbn_mobile: I'm also easily scared and depressed especially when I think about things like the fact most of what we're saying here about preventing covid is futile and in the end it's most likely we'll all just get it. I also have a lot of general issues with procrastination of any decisions21:34
LjLI also suspect that if I were sick, at that particular time I'd just tell doctors to do what they think will save me, even if rationally, and currently, I'd see that as painful useless extension of suffering, just out of survival instinct's knee jerk reaction21:35
bn_mobileDon't be depressed by it, it is what it is, as Buddha said "life is suffering" 😀, just assume worst case scenario, plan accordingly & anything better is a bonus outcome.  "Hope for the best, expect the worst"?21:42
bn_mobileRe. procrastination of decision making:  that may be because you are afraid to make incorrect decisions, I am a bit the same & am often accused of "overthinking " things, but I rarely if ever have regrets because I am comfortable in the research I did.  I would be hesitant to place blind faith in whatever (night watch?) dr. (or instagram-ing nurse) happened to have the pager the day you happened to be in the21:47
bn_mobilehospital and went into cardiac arrest or <insert_human_failure_condition> here.21:47
BrainstormUpdates for France: +16589 cases (now 3.7 million) since 22 hours ago — St. Vin. and Gren.: +37 cases (now 1556), +2 deaths (now 8) since 2 days ago21:50
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): Covid2019: Difference in SARS-CoV-2 attack rate between children and adults may reflect bias | Clinical Infectious Diseases → https://is.gd/MyL9QE22:58
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): China_Flu: Is it dangerous to stay in the same home as your elderly parents AFTER they have been vaccinated but BEFORE you get vaccinated? Doesn't this make it more likely that they will get infected, show no symptoms, and infect you with COVID-19? → https://is.gd/OS0P5m23:48
LjLsuch a bad question, and almost every comment is bad too, excluding maybe one23:54

Generated by irclog2html.py 2.17.0 by Marius Gedminas - find it at https://mg.pov.lt/irclog2html/!