libera/##covid-19/ Tuesday, 2021-03-02

BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +5268 cases (now 2.5 million) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +1889 cases (now 869747), +15 deaths (now 22004) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +2379 cases (now 1.1 million) since 22 hours ago00:13
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: White House says 'no' to sharing vaccines with Canada and Mexico → https://is.gd/XZZxZU00:45
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Brazil's hospitals reach breaking point as health minister blames new coronavirus variants → https://is.gd/mo8yTE00:56
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: WHO panel: Hydroxychloroquine should not be used to prevent COVID-19 → https://is.gd/zZgJTk01:37
CoronaBot/r/coronavirus: Clean break: the risk of catching Covid from surfaces overblown, experts say (10051 votes) | https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/28/clean-break-the-risk-of-catching-covid-from-surfaces-overblown-experts-say | https://redd.it/lv9cx101:39
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +5752 cases (now 4.2 million), +124 deaths (now 123018) since 22 hours ago01:40
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: What to know about the side effects of the COVID-19 vaccination: You've gone through the appointment rigmarole to get signed up for a COVID vaccine, got your first shot, waited the required three to four week period for your second. But when that booster dose comes, be warned that you might be experiencing symptoms a few hours later. → https://is.gd/tIfrUR01:47
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Fraud overwhelms pandemic-related unemployment programs → https://is.gd/BXf4Xn02:08
BrainstormUpdates for Switzerland: +17 deaths (now 9988) since 10 hours ago02:11
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Japan asks China to stop anal tests on its citizens → https://is.gd/Bx6Hrm02:39
LjLoh can't we act like grownups, if China found these tests effective, it would honestly bother me less than the "feeling like they went up my brain" thing many describe about nasal swabs02:42
LjL"The tests are used on some of those quarantined or entering China, he also said, noting their use "has not been confirmed anywhere else in the world". "02:42
LjLat the same time, China has virtually no cases. maybe for once instead of being appalled at what they do we should see if they're doing useful things02:43
LjLfirst it was the US complaining that American diplomats received this type of swab. yeah well if everyone entering China does, why the hell would they be exempted?02:43
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: The truthtellers China created a story of the pandemic. These people revealed details Beijing left out. Some disappeared → https://is.gd/9zsdbh03:20
asdflkjIMO couldn't have done a much better job hurting the rest of the world (suppressing covid truth until it left China, then nailing people into their houses) if they had purposefully planned it (eg. as revenge on the US administration that had been sanctioning them so much)03:24
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: WHO: ‘Premature,’ ‘unrealistic’ to think Covid-19 will end soon → https://is.gd/0rhAnn04:12
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +5602 cases (now 4.2 million), +114 deaths (now 123044) since 21 hours ago — France: +10337 cases (now 3.8 million) since 7 hours ago — Netherlands: +2831 cases (now 1.1 million), +16 deaths (now 15642) since 21 hours ago — Canada: +2235 cases (now 871251), +21 deaths (now 22013) since 21 hours ago05:18
BrainstormUpdates for Belgium: +783 cases (now 772294), +29 deaths (now 22106) since a day ago05:55
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: WHO panel issues strong advice against hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19 → https://is.gd/xPjpxA06:15
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Biden urged to stop blocking of COVID-19 WTO waiver suggested by India and S Africa → https://is.gd/TTTQBx06:26
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Johnson & Johnson's newly-approved Covid vaccine met with pushback as Catholic diocese condemns it for ‘ties to abortion cells’ → https://is.gd/PNwBBv06:36
BrainstormNew preprint: COVID-19 International Border Surveillance Cohort Study at Toronto's Pearson Airport by Vivek Goel et al, made available as preprint on 2021-03-01 at https://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2021.02.25.21252404 [... want %more?]07:03
BrainstormUpdates for Lombardy, Italy: +2135 cases (now 605216), +42 deaths (now 28403) since a day ago — United Kingdom: +6139 cases (now 4.2 million), +117 deaths (now 123070) since 12 hours ago — France: +11519 cases (now 3.8 million), +142 deaths (now 86879) since 10 hours ago — Netherlands: +3737 cases (now 1.1 million), +21 deaths (now 15647) since 7 hours ago07:59
CoronaBot/r/coronavirus: CDC: 10% of U.S. Adult Population Fully Vaccinated for COVID-19 (10026 votes) | https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-03-01/cdc-10-of-us-adult-population-fully-vaccinated-for-coronavirus | https://redd.it/lvm1mu08:00
BrainstormNew from Science-Based Medicine: Hepatitis C Vaccine Fails Testing: A vaccine regimen intended to prevent chronic HCV infection was tested in a double blind placebo-controlled trial. It failed. The incidence of chronic HCV infection was the same in the vaccinated group as in the placebo group. The post  first appeared on Science-Based Medicine . → https://is.gd/vFT2cz09:09
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Pfizer, Oxford vaccines reduce severe COVID-19 in elderly, study finds → https://is.gd/F07U3m09:50
ArsaneritLjL: Do you trust information from China?10:02
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Novavax hopes to file for US vaccine approval in 2nd quarter of 2021: US biotech company Novavax said Monday it hopes to file for British approval of its COVID-19 vaccine at the start of the second quarter of 2021, and to do the same soon after in the United States. → https://is.gd/zQxXwM10:10
BrainstormNew from StatNews: The ‘other’ epidemic: Amid Covid-19, addiction experts fear Biden could back-burner the overdose crisis: Fatal drug overdoses in the U.S. reached an all-time high in 2020. But with Covid-19 causing even more carnage, addiction advocates worry the nation’s “other” epidemic has become a second-tier… → https://is.gd/TIB1hs10:41
BrainstormNew from BMJ: SARS-CoV-2 lateral flow assays for possible use in national covid-19 seroprevalence surveys (React 2): diagnostic accuracy study: AbstractObjectiveTo evaluate the performance of new lateral flow immunoassays (LFIAs) suitable for use in a national coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) seroprevalence programme (real time assessment... → https://is.gd/2cFawX11:53
BrainstormNew from Politico: France allows Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine for people over 65: The French health authority cited 'encouraging' preliminary results of a large Scottish study on the impact of the vaccine on COVID-19 hospitalizations. → https://is.gd/H4Q50s12:24
de-factoso indeed as i said USA is unwilling to export vaccines (in contrast to Europe)12:48
de-facto<Brainstorm>12:48
de-facto New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: White House says 'no' to sharing vaccines with Canada and Mexico → https://is.gd/XZZxZU12:48
de-factomerica first! great friends.12:49
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Chinese vaccines sweep much of the world, despite concerns. → https://is.gd/zTvJJq12:55
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Man 'who has fathered 35 children' by offering sperm donations online says demand has risen during COVID pandemic → https://is.gd/4C5tVy13:06
BrainstormNew from BMJ: Helen Salisbury: Stepping back from vaccination priorities and focusing on minimising the risk of exposure: In the last week, many GPs have been trying to make sense of new lists of patients coded as being at high risk of complications from covid-19 who are therefore a priority for vaccination. We’ve been... → https://is.gd/fsHZ8013:16
BrainstormUpdates for Malta: +336 cases (now 22993), +3 deaths (now 319) since a day ago13:28
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: (news): Covid-19: Regular tests a 'game-changer' for schools, says science adviser → https://is.gd/ioEf1I13:58
BrainstormNew from Derek Lowe: @bio_clouseau: RT by @Dereklowe: $MRK to help with $JNJ manufacturing https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/03/02/merck-johnson-and-johnson-covid-vaccine-partnership/https://is.gd/9wbEAf14:09
* skruffen[m] uploaded an image: image.png (366KiB) < https://matrix.org/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/gMGiHidtBSWFTdvFsMRgbype/image.png >14:20
najari[m]Gibraltar has vaccinated its population 109.2% https://covidvax.org , why?14:26
BrainstormNew from EMA: What's new: General: COVID-19 vaccines: authorised → https://is.gd/xlCRKA15:01
Arsaneritnajari[m]: that's the number of doses given, not number of people vaccinated15:06
de-factoyeah of course, because the "normal" before was insane in terms of biosecurity (obviously as the pandemic proved)15:06
de-factothere is no "back to normal" ever.15:07
ArsaneritHow should be the new normal after covid-19 is over be different from the old normal, from a biosecurity point of view?15:09
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Pharma: STAT+: Pharmalittle: Merck will help J&J make its Covid-19 vaccine; Trump used hospital funds to bankroll Warp Speed → https://is.gd/AwYeEm15:12
BrainstormNew from StatNews: STAT+: STAT+ Conversations: The hidden impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic: STAT co-founder and executive editor Rick Berks sits down with STAT's Usha Lee Mcfarling to discuss hidden impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic. → https://is.gd/Mzk1Hr15:22
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Covid-19, conferenza stampa sul nuovo Dpcm ( http://www.governo.it/it/articolo/covid-19-conferenza-stampa-sul-nuovo-dpcm/16341 )15:30
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Much of the world is seeing coronavirus cases fall. But Brazil’s outbreak is worse than ever. If Brazil does not control the virus, it will be the world's largest open laboratory for the virus to mutate. → https://is.gd/HUydU715:33
BrainstormUpdates for Switzerland: +1130 cases (now 558622) since 23 hours ago — Germany: +5154 cases (now 2.5 million) since 23 hours ago15:39
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: PA admits giving first vaccines to government officials rather than healthcare staff → https://is.gd/h78js415:54
BrainstormNew from EMA: News and press releases: EMA review of regdanvimab for COVID-19 to support national decisions on early use, , 02/03/2021: EMA is conducting a review of Celltrion’s monoclonal antibody regdanvimab (CT-P59) to support national authorities who may decide on the use of this... → https://is.gd/DM5Z6D16:04
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Pfizer vaccine: Overweight people might need bigger dose, Italian study says → https://is.gd/ZMkx7c16:26
de-factothe new normal should not allow for the next pandemic to unfold, so i think we need to implement biosecurity concepts especially traveling and tourism. Quite annoying that it still is not implemented after one year.16:28
de-factoif we just ignore the fatal flaws this pandemic demonstrated in that regard we knowingly allow for the next one to spread just as fast and maybe wipe out the majority of humanity.16:29
de-factoso there just cant be "back to (the old) normal" ever.16:29
de-factojust imagine something like rabies going airborne... that would be absolutely catastrophic with current non-existent biosecurity16:31
de-factothe rapid global spread of all those SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern demonstrate that despite the pandemic we still basically have no effective bio-security concepts in place *at all* :(16:34
BrainstormUpdates for Netherlands: +3909 cases (now 1.1 million), +43 deaths (now 15669) since 16 hours ago16:41
de-factowe have fast internet connections and could use robotic logistics, we dont need transporting humans (and and thier pathogen) internationally with a latency of a few hours to days16:42
de-factointernational travel by any human without at least 3 weeks quarantine (or complete isolation from either target or source region) should not be tolerated anymore16:44
de-factowhy did VoCs spread now so fast?16:44
CoronaBot/r/covid19: Negligible impact of SARS-CoV-2 variants on CD4+ and CD8+ T cell reactivity in COVID-19 exposed donors and vaccinees. (86 votes) | https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.27.433180v1 | https://redd.it/lvwkc916:45
de-factoStupid humans traveled internationally for Christmas and New Years. Without any proper reason, just because they like to be entertained by their family in person. This is beyond stupid.16:45
de-factoCoronaBot, sounds good :)16:46
BrainstormNew from Quanta Magazine: New Season of The Joy of x Podcast Explores Scientists’ Inner Lives: In a second season of enlightened conversations, Steven Strogatz and leading researchers nourish our pandemic-starved minds. The post  first appeared on Quanta Magazine . → https://is.gd/BXzM6K16:47
de-factofortunately CD4/8+ cell reactions are individual enough that probability of convergent selection pressure by them is much lower than from highly specific nAbs like IgG from memory b-cells against ancestors to the VoCs16:48
de-factohence cellular immunity might mitigate antibody-leaky vaccines in regard to new VoCs16:50
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: China proposes free travel to US based on recognition of Covid-19 vaccines → https://is.gd/Iair0z16:58
de-factothere travel restrictions lifting already planed. this is beyond stupid.16:59
de-factoi really really do hope tourism industry and aviation will go bankrupt and vanish until then (i know unrealistic because they will put shitloads of taxmoney into those companies to prevent that from happening)17:00
de-factoas long as citizens tolerate this it will happen again and again and maybe next time with a much more deadly pathogen. its not a question of if but when it will happen17:01
de-factoallowing traveling of vaccinated is just not acceptable at all17:04
de-factoexample: Vaccinated with the AZ shot that does not protect well from getting infected with the B.1.351 VoC can obviously transmit that pathogen with a delay of just the flight time if no quarantine is made strictly mandatory17:05
BrainstormUpdates for Canada: +19 deaths (now 22015) since 23 hours ago17:06
Arsaneritde-facto: You propose to essentially stop all international travel forever?17:08
de-factoanother example: even if 90% protection would be achieved from asymptomatic infection with the most effective vaccines (e.g. mRNA) and the most non-concerning variants (e.g. D614G) it only would reduce the transmission risk to 10% hence every 10 potential cases one becomes infected17:08
ArsaneritNo more family visits, no more foreign vacations, no more international tourism?17:09
de-factoArsanerit, until there is no proper biosecurity concept in place, yes of course17:09
ArsaneritI thought you meant that was your proper biosecurity concept.17:09
ArsaneritWhat would a proper biosecurity concept that still allows for international family visits and tourism look like?17:09
de-factowell its a bit like lockdown, because we have no better concept we unspecifically close every possibility, its an indication for the lack of knowledge to implement a better concept that that17:10
de-factowell the most simple thinkable concept would require mandatory strict quarantine (as its done in China and New Zealand etc)17:11
ArsaneritRequiring mandatory strict quarantine for 2-3 weeks forever is essentially the same as killing all international tourism or family visits.17:11
de-factomaybe for pilots etc they also could be strictly prohibited to have any human contact at target location (hence be in complete isolation) for immediate return to the source location17:12
de-factoArsanerit, those are unnecessary anyhow in times of video calls etc17:13
ArsaneritThat's rather strict to impose forever.17:13
de-factowell until we have a better concept its the only way to prevent such spread of pathogen17:13
de-factoidk do you have a better idea how to prevent such spreads?17:13
ArsaneritIn times of pandemics, I agree that such restrictions should be imposed.17:13
ArsaneritIn other times, it would appear to be exaggerated.17:14
de-factowell as it was before it obviously allowed for the pandemic to unfold17:14
de-factoso if that is not a desired scenario it would make sense to think about how to prevent that from happening again17:14
de-factoi know cutting down any traveling is drastic but effective, it should motivate smarter approaches17:15
de-factoimho its the fault of tourism industry that ignored that issue for too long, it was known before by how influenza spreads etc17:17
de-factothe "cheaper is better" approach by airlines like ryanair demonstrates their attitude17:17
BrainstormNew from ProPublica: Oregon’s Logging Industry Says It Can’t Afford New Taxes. But Prices Have Never Been Higher and Profits Are Soaring.: by Rob Davis , The Oregonian/OregonLive , and Tony Schick ,  Oregon Public Broadcasting ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/JIVc4R17:19
de-factoimho airlines should convert their fleet to cargo transport and provide their pilots isolated shelter in quarantine at the target location until their cargo is unloaded and return cargo is loaded so flights always should be ping-pong with quarantine at target location17:21
de-factoinstead they probably are going for restaurants and doing a party17:23
BrainstormNew from EMA: What's new: General: COVID-19: latest updates → https://is.gd/ejWHzQ17:29
ArsaneritPrevent it from happening again, by responding more quickly when it starts.17:35
Arsaneritsars-cov-1 and ebola did not spread to be pandemics17:35
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Expressive Writing for the Management of Stress in Cancer Survivors → https://is.gd/XA6lH517:40
jiffedo some of these vaccines require more than 2 doses?17:44
ArsaneritDo yearly boosters count?17:45
jiffeI'm just looking at https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/ and I would assume that "people vaccinated (1 dose)" + 2 * "people vaccinated (2 doses)" would about equal "vaccine doses administered"17:46
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: Safety and Efficacy of USB002 for Respiratory Distress Due to COVID-19: Conditions :    2019 Novel Coronavirus Infection;   COVID-19 Virus Infection;   SARS Coronavirus 2 Infection;   SARS-CoV-2 Infection;   Respiratory Distress Syndrome, Adult;   Adult Respiratory Distress Syndrome → https://is.gd/B6EvuX17:51
jiffechina is still only reporting 90k cases?  did they just stop counting?17:55
Arsaneritmaybe they banned counting18:00
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Semen Analysis Parameters Following Pfizer's COVID-19 Vaccine → https://is.gd/LBJ3O518:02
LjLjiffe, no, they stopped allowing people outside whenever there's a cluster, even small18:03
LjLwhich pertains also to Arsanerit's question18:03
LjLi get it that nobody likes China18:03
LjLbut why is it that when New Zealand has virtually zero cases, they were just very effective at lockdowns18:04
LjLwhile if China also has mostly zero cases, they're only effective at lying?18:04
LjLwhy all this ridiculous bad publicity over anal swabs? maybe they found they work better, sheesh, it's not a much bigger deal than feeling a swab "into your brain" like many say18:04
LjLmaybe we should evaluate things they do and see if they make sense, instead of just assuming they're insane and/or lying18:05
jiffetheir count has gone up by pretty much 0 and they've had a few lockdowns since, I highly doubt this number is anywhere near accurate18:05
LjLand speaking of being insane, look at the clinical trial Brainstorm posted just above, they really need to do that because "people" have started rumoring that the vaccines cause infertility18:05
LjLso now they must set out to prove they do not, except i expect if "people" get to know about this study, even before any results come out, they'll go "IT'S TRUE THEN!"18:06
LjLjiffe, again, New Zealand has recently had *one* (1) community case (of the UK variant i believe), and what did they do? locked Auckland down18:06
de-factoArsanerit, well yes quicker response times would be good, but Ebola is a totally different pathogen and sars-cov-1 did not replicate as well as sars-cov-2 in the upper resp tract hence was less infectious, but response probably was better18:07
LjLChina behaves the same way. if there's a cluster, even of an amount of cases you can count on one hand, they lock down that city or if it's huge, the neighborhood18:07
LjLand their lockdowns are pretty serious, you do *not* leave home18:07
ArsaneritLjL: Why?  Because China is a totalitarian dictatorship whereas New Zealand is a democracy.  Maybe China ended community transmission, but I personally don't take their word for it.18:07
de-factoit was exactly the one wrong thing to do to evacuate infected people with flights from the epicenter of the start18:07
LjLso again, why do you doubt that for China while presumably yuo don't for New Zealand? Australia also acts similarlty18:07
ArsaneritI doubt it for China because we cannot confirm it from independent sources.18:08
LjLArsanerit, okay then, let's stay blind and not learn anything from them and keep this thing around for the next 10 years18:08
LjLyou can confirm it by their economy18:08
ArsaneritAustralia and New Zealand seem to be doing well.18:08
LjLwhich isn't falling down the floor like ours18:08
LjLof course they do18:08
LjLNew Zealand has had a financial rating upgrade, too18:08
LjLonly country in the world18:08
LjLbut here, instead, we DON'T want lockdowns "because of the economy"18:09
LjLexcept, the economy recovers better and faster WITH lockdowns18:09
ArsaneritIt helps to be a remote island, but the fake lockdowns in Europe are insufficient.18:09
LjLand New Zealand shows us that, but also China shows us that18:09
LjLyou can keep dissing China but without China we'd still mostly not have FFP2 (N95) masks18:09
ArsaneritThe lockdown including industry should be Europe-wide.18:09
LjLthe *vast* majority of them still come from China. they may be shoddy, not very effective, etc, but we just can't produce any meaningful amount ourselves18:09
LjLArsanerit, yes, i agree, and guess what's an example of not-an-island where doing global lockdowns, and then tight track-and-trace, helped, even though sure, new cases pop up at borders and have to be handled, etc...? China.18:10
LjLthey also don't allow people to fly in without OMG ANAL SWABS18:10
LjLask de-facto what he thinks about Europe still allowing flights from here and there18:11
ArsaneritLjL: Yes, I do believe it's probably true that they have it under control.18:11
ArsaneritBut I also believe that if there is something they don't want us to know, we probably won't unless someone takes big risks in getting the information out.18:11
LjLArsanerit, sure, it's just that i don't take that as the default stance: it seems like for some people, whenever things in China seem to be going better than here, they MUST be hiding things18:12
LjLit's unthinkable that they're just handling them better, i feel there is a bit of racist sentiment behind that, tbh18:12
ArsaneritHow are ROK and Japan doing these days?18:12
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): (CBDRA60) to Prevent or Reduce Symptoms of COVID-19 → https://is.gd/ymFbLK18:12
Arsanerit%cases South Korea18:13
BrainstormUpdates for Bosnia and Herz.: +2109 cases (now 133088), +74 deaths (now 5145) since 4 days ago — United Kingdom: +6391 cases (now 4.2 million), +343 deaths (now 123296) since 22 hours ago18:13
BrainstormArsanerit: Sorry, South Korea not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name.18:13
LjLthey are doing okayish18:13
LjLJapan is having issues18:13
Arsanerit%cases Republic of Korea18:13
BrainstormArsanerit: Sorry, Republic of Korea not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name.18:13
LjLhmm18:13
LjL%cases Korea, South18:13
BrainstormLjL: Sorry, Korea, South not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name.18:13
LjLlet me figure this out18:13
LjLor meanwhile18:13
LjL!cases South Korea18:13
CovBotIn Korea, South there have been a total of 90,372 cases as of 2021-03-02 16:47:00 UTC. Of these 7,428 (8.2%) are still sick or may have recovered without being recorded, 81,338 (90.0%) have definitely recovered and 1,606 (1.8%) have died.18:13
ArsaneritLjL, do you think the type of lockdown done in China, Australia, or New Zealand would be accepted by the general public in European countries or North America — which is I think the strategy proposed by Zero Covid https://zero-covid.org/language/en/ ?  If people don't respect existing lockdowns, will they respect stricter ones?18:15
LjLArsanerit, i don't know. but i think the reasoning "if they don't respect looser ones, they won't respect stricter ones" doesn't necessarily hold18:15
ArsaneritI agree it doesn't necessarily hold.18:16
LjLa higher sense of urgency and emergency, communicated the right way, could make people behave differently18:16
Arsanerit"Kids go to school, I go to work, so why can't I meet my mates in the park?"18:16
LjLgood example, "we can do x so why not y"18:17
LjLanswer: "now you can't do x!"18:17
LjLi wonder what's wrong with Brainstorm, the term is definitely "South Korea" on covidly18:17
de-facto.cases Vietnam18:17
Brainstormde-facto: In Vietnam, there have been 2472 confirmed cases (0.0% of the population) and 35 deaths (1.4% of cases) as of 7 hours ago. 2.0 million tests were performed (0.1% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Vietnam for time series data.18:17
de-facto.cases Taiwan18:17
Brainstormde-facto: In Taiwan, there have been 955 confirmed cases (0.0% of the population) and 9 deaths (0.9% of cases) as of 2 days ago. 314951 tests were performed (0.3% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Taiwan for time series data.18:17
de-facto.cases China18:18
Brainstormde-facto: In China, there have been 95448 confirmed cases (0.0% of the population) and 4739 deaths (5.0% of cases) as of 10 hours ago. 160.0 million tests were performed (0.1% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.6% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 4.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=China for time series data.18:18
de-facto.cases Thailand18:18
Brainstormde-facto: In Thailand, there have been 26073 confirmed cases (0.0% of the population) and 84 deaths (0.3% of cases) as of 10 hours ago. 1.6 million tests were performed (1.7% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Thailand for time series data.18:18
LjLJapan appears to have a skyrocketing rate of suicides, fwiw :(18:18
de-facto.cases Hong Kong18:19
Brainstormde-facto: In Hong Kong, there have been 11033 confirmed cases (0.1% of the population) and 200 deaths (1.8% of cases) as of 6 hours ago. 8.6 million tests were performed (0.1% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 2.1% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 1.9% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Hong%20Kong for time series data.18:19
de-factobtw notice all of those are not islands18:19
Arsanerit.cases Iceland18:20
BrainstormArsanerit: In Iceland, there have been 6055 confirmed cases (1.7% of the population) and 29 deaths (0.5% of cases) as of 4 hours ago. 502521 tests were performed (1.2% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.7% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 0.5% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Iceland for time series data.18:20
* LjL notes the % of the population18:22
CoronaBot/r/covid19: SARS-CoV-2 antibodies detected in human breast milk post-vaccination (84 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252328v1 | https://redd.it/lw4vvg18:22
ArsaneritIt seems most (all?) European nations prefer the "hammer and dance" strategy rather than the "zero covid" strategy, but fail to do the hammer strongly enough and if they didn't fail with the "dance" before, they do now that variants of concern become dominant.18:22
de-factoso with the current pandemic spreading those countries demonstrated that it is possible to contain it with an appropriate concept, hence we should ask ourselves if our strategy obviously failed after one year if there might be something new to learn from this18:22
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): International COVID-19 Clinical Evaluation Registry -2 (HOPE-2) → https://is.gd/VcnJMN18:23
Arsaneritde-facto: you mean like https://zero-covid.org/language/en/ ?  They had a rather convincing supplement to a newspaper I subscribe to.18:23
de-factowell yes imho it does not make sense to tolerate that the cause of our current problems persists18:25
Arsaneritcause of our current problems — animal agriculture?18:25
de-factoi meant the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen circulating18:26
de-factowell one could think about all of that too but right now we have to prevent human to human transmission and yes ofc in future also prevent new pathogen from animals etc18:27
de-factoi think zero covid is the only sane strategy, it becomes exponentially more easy to contain with low incidence18:28
de-factoor to state the opposite: every day with exponential increase makes it exponentially more difficult to contain18:28
Arsaneritthey seem to be going the other way :/18:30
de-factoyes it looks like that, i hope tomorrow they wont decide anything more stupid18:32
LjLoh duh. spent a lot of time trying to figure out why the bot wasn't working with South Korea, and only now realized that *my code* was explicitly turning it into "Korea, South" because that's how tinwhiskers's db had it ;(18:33
de-factothe B.1.1.7 is about to dominate incidence18:33
BrainstormNew from BMJ: Covid-19: Where are we on vaccines and variants?: Have any new variants emerged?We’ve heard a lot about B.1.1.7 (first detected in the UK), B.1.351 (first detected in South Africa), and P.1 (detected in Manaus, Brazil), but other variants have also... → https://is.gd/NClpFc18:33
LjLour new PM fired the previous "COVID commissioner" and appointed a (former?) army general in his place18:34
LjLi wonder if picking a military person is trying to send a message18:34
LjL%cases South Korea18:35
BrainstormLjL: In South Korea, there have been 90372 confirmed cases (0.2% of the population) and 1606 deaths (1.8% of cases) as of 13 hours ago. 6.7 million tests were performed (1.4% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.2% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 1.9% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=South%20Korea for time series data.18:35
de-factoneat :)18:35
Arsaneritde-facto: it doesn't already?18:36
de-factoi think so, it was at 22% or such on week 618:39
de-factoit portion of incidence followed an exponential like R^g with R~1.44 to R~1.8 and g being the number of generations by ~5.2d18:40
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine easy to update in response to variants: (HealthDay)—A COVID-19 vaccine still awaiting U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval may prove to be a powerful weapon in fighting the pandemic, according to its developers. → https://is.gd/B1NsFv18:43
ArsaneritCould very frequent testing be an alternative to a zero covid lockdown?  Zero covid lockdown except for anyone with a negative test from the last 24 hours or a vaccination in the last 12 months?18:44
LjLlook at what other EU countries are doing to get their vaccines now https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/covid-vaccine-results-public-health-england-b921793.html18:50
LjLscroll down to "in extraordinary development" (yeah well, it's the Standard)18:50
ArsaneritHow are those developments extraordinary?18:51
de-factowe dont know how well vaccination protects from transmission, especially for new variants18:53
de-factoif incidence is allowed to stay high there will be a lot of reproduction in partially immunized hence we cant breed more effectively evasive mutants19:00
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Fauci says U.S. will stay with two doses of Pfizer, Moderna vaccines: The United States will stick with its plan to give millions of Americans two doses of the Pfizer and Moderna coronavirus vaccines, Dr. Anthony Fauci said Monday. → https://is.gd/ymtxM519:04
BrainstormNew from Derek Lowe: @Dereklowe: Some quick thoughts on the current vaccine situation, and how it applies to Novavax and others:https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/03/02/early-march-vaccine-thoughtshttps://is.gd/BMAXgt19:15
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Covid-19, il Presidente Draghi firma il nuovo Dpcm ( http://www.governo.it/it/articolo/covid-19-il-presidente-draghi-firma-il-nuovo-dpcm/16343 )19:25
BrainstormNew from NPR: Merck Will Help Manufacture Johnson & Johnson's COVID-19 Vaccine: Merck traditionally has been a leader in vaccines but has not had success with a COVID-19 vaccine. It's lending a hand to Johnson & Johnson, where production is running significantly behind schedule. → https://is.gd/L3vmd119:46
BrainstormUpdates for Kuwait: +1341 cases (now 193372), +7 deaths (now 1092) since a day ago — Italy: +17063 cases (now 3.0 million), +343 deaths (now 98288) since a day ago19:54
asdflkjTIL that annual road accidents deaths¹ are about 90% or more as high as 2020 COVID-19 deaths² ¹https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_causes_of_death_by_rate#/media/File:Leading_cause_of_death_world.png ²https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_deaths#202020:06
asdflkj(worldwide)20:06
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: United States should get vaccines to Canada and Mexico next, U.S. lawmaker urges → https://is.gd/LxNLPg20:07
asdflkjso say lockdowns halve the deaths from COVID. maybe banning road travel would save about twice as many lives20:10
skruffen[m]https://www.aier.org/article/lockdowns-do-not-control-the-coronavirus-the-evidence/20:12
asdflkjskruffen[m]: good point. their's no evidence strict lockdowns make any difference (compared to targeted weak/elderly “quarantine”s) IIUC20:15
asdflkjso it seems to me there's no argument for having lockdowns without banning cars too20:16
asdflkjor in other words, if the amount of death cars cause is acceptible, any death caused by no lockdowns is more acceptable20:17
asdflkjthere's no reason to allow cars and not allow everything that lockdowns prohibit, is there?20:19
skruffen[m]or junkfood20:29
skruffen[m]shut down junkfood and save a bunch of lifes20:29
LjLasdflkj, do you realize that about 50% of people who get COVID have long-term symptoms for at least six months, possibly an indefinite time? it's not just about deaths. and of course those who don't die but are hospitalized with serious lung issues will continue to have serious lung issues for life20:31
LjLbut also there's a reason self-driving cars are being developed at speed20:31
LjLand this seems like whataboutism20:31
asdflkjtons of people who get in car accidents have long term effects20:32
LjL"people die from X so why should we care about stopping Y unless we also stop X"20:32
asdflkjyeah, what about whataboutism? “you argument involves comparisons, we shouldn't care about stopping Y unless we stop comparing to X”?20:33
asdflkjyour*20:33
LjLplus, unless COVID is stopped or at least (sigh) kept under some control, it rises exponentially. road accidents don't rise exponentially, they stay roughly what they are, hopefully go down with better safety features.20:34
asdflkjthat20:35
LjLwell whataboutism is widely considered a fallacy20:35
LjLi think i'll go with that20:35
asdflkj> it rises exponentially < that's a better argument20:35
asdflkjOTOH it also goes down by itself if herd immunity is reached20:36
LjLunless it creates an escaping variant and reinfects everyone instead20:36
LjLwhich it is likely to do once enough people are immune that there's evolutionary pressure to do so20:36
LjLit appears to have occurred in Manaus in Brazil20:37
asdflkjyou could almost use that as an argument against vaccines20:37
asdflkjbut not really I guess20:37
LjLanyway, count how many deaths you're going to have if we assume we let it run free and in a year 70% of the population will have got it (assuming 70% is enough for herd immunity, which i always doubted slightly)...20:38
LjLasdflkj, it is a threat to vaccine efficacy, for sure20:38
LjLbut with mRNA vaccines at least, we can adapt them to variants somewhat quickly20:38
LjLit's not a great situation by any means20:38
LjLit would be ideal, as de-facto always says, to vaccinate everyone at "the same time" as much as possible20:39
asdflkjyeah, I don't think it's really an argument against vaccines, they don't kill as many people in the process of causing immunity20:39
LjLto give as little space as possible for the virus to develop vaccine-escaping mutations20:39
LjLbut that's just not happening due to logistics20:39
LjLwhat i also say is that it would be great if we could all use *very effective* vaccines like the mRNA ones20:40
asdflkjright20:40
LjLnot weak ones like AZ and J&J which may also be just strong enough (weak enough) to instigate escaping variants20:40
LjLbut given we have barely any of... any... that's how it is20:40
LjLde-facto20:56
LjL%tr <it Segnaliamo anche un altro dato relativo alla Lombardia: il 64% dei nuovi casi di Covid-19 è riconducibile alla variante inglese, come comunicato dalla Regione stessa, valore più che raddoppiato rispetto all’analoga indagine condotta a metà febbraio.20:56
BrainstormLjL, Italian to English: We also report another data relating to Lombardy: 64% of new cases of Covid-19 are attributable to the English variant, as communicated by the Region itself, a value more than doubled compared to the similar survey conducted in mid-February. (MyMemory, Google) [... want %more?]20:56
LjLIl Sole 24 Ore has good daily analyses of the situation... only on the italian page though20:56
LjLi wonder though if i can read what they wrote on *previous* days anywhere. i don't see an obvious way to do so... except of course going to archive.org and hoping it has them20:57
LjLwhich it does, but not for every day :\20:58
calbasi_matrix<Brainstorm "LjL, Italian to English: We also"> Here in Catalonia (Europe) TODAY we have passed the 50% of Bristish variant ;-)21:01
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: A senior Hungarian health official tried to allay fears about standards of care Tuesday, after several thousand hospital workers quit over new state contracts they say offered unacceptable terms. The row comes as the country tackles steeply rising Covid-19 infection case numbers and deaths → https://is.gd/VwwD1E21:01
LjLcalbasi_matrix, molt bé21:01
calbasi_matrixI think a month ago it probably don't exceed 20%21:01
calbasi_matrix<LjL "calbasi, molt bé"> Home, tant com això...21:02
LjLthe thing is, we haven't seen the SA variant start to predominate yet21:02
LjLthat one really scares me21:02
LjLnot that the UK variant doesn't...21:03
calbasi_matrix<calbasi_matrix "Here in Catalonia (Europe) TODAY"> Probably that is the reason our 3th wave is not getting down quickly, but slowly (Rt near 1)21:03
de-factodangit 64% B.1.1.7 in Lombardia, i calculated 50% would be passed in 1st of March in Germany21:03
LjLhopefully(?) the UK variant is more contagious than the SA variant and has an edge that way. although if the SA variant evades vaccines and the UK variant doesn't, at some point the SA variant prevailing will be inevitable21:03
de-factoso that would be consistent i guess21:04
LjLde-facto, the analysis says that we're seeing a constant rise in ICU use across Italy, and usually that relates to cases from 2-3 weeks before, but this time we don't see a rise in cases 2-3 weeks ago, and their opinion is that we simply did too few testing, at least PCR... nowadays the official number of tests includes antigenic tests, but those provide different metrics21:05
LjLand then it says that it's different in Lombardy because while Lombardy also doesn't do enough testing, it has a much higher proportion of PCR compared to the rest of Italy, so we did see a rise in cases 2-3 weeks ago21:05
LjLdamn i want to ask the newspaper if they can provide all the past "articles" for each day during the pandemic21:06
LjLbut their twitter account doesn't appear to answer questions21:06
LjLnot sure where it would be an effective place to ask21:06
de-factowell if the reproduction of D614G is below 1 while B.1.1.7 is above one its rise is hidden in overall endemic incidence so if its more severe it may cause rise in hospitalizations (hopefully thats not the case though)21:08
LjLhopefully :\21:09
LjLde-facto, i don't think i like this, and i suspect neither will you: https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=it&tl=en&u=https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/si-lavora-passaporto-vaccinale-europeo-l-estate-ecco-cosa-conterra-AD9cNFNB21:09
de-factoyeah the electronic passports?21:10
de-factovaccine green passports are not a good idea because vaccines are leaky21:11
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: French data show 75% of AstraZeneca jabs unused: The French government was under pressure on Tuesday to accelerate its vaccination programme after new figures showed that three in four jabs delivered by AstraZeneca had gone unused. → https://is.gd/kFs7fG21:12
de-factolobby of https://ourworldindata.org/tourism ?21:12
sharkeyhello21:15
asdflkjhi21:15
LjLde-facto, actually, sort of, yeah. Italy is definitely one of the countries pushing for it :\21:16
sharkeywuzzup21:16
sharkeyLjL i am from italy21:16
LjLhi21:16
sharkeyhi21:17
sharkeywhat's italy is pushing for?21:17
LjLsharkey, the european "vaccine passport"21:21
LjLit's not alone in that21:21
LjLmainly it's countries with a lot of tourism industry that want it21:22
LjLbut i find it incredibly inappropriate at least during the time not everyone has access to the vaccine21:22
sharkeyLjL: well right now in italy don't talk about vaccine passport21:22
LjLreally shouldn't discriminate ability to travel based on a vaccine that i can't have21:22
sharkeyvaccine campaign is just started21:22
LjLthey may not talk about it to you, but they're definitely talking about it to the EU21:23
sharkeyand it'll take months after talk about vaccine passport21:23
CoronaBot/r/coronavirus: Covid vaccines may stop spread ‘almost completely’ (10164 votes) | https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/covid-vaccine-results-public-health-england-b921793.html | https://redd.it/lw1q3821:23
LjLit will take more than months to have everyone vaccinated. make it a couple of years minimum21:23
sharkeymaybe, but it's not in the main debates of italy21:23
sharkeywhere are you from LjL21:24
sharkey?21:24
LjLanyway, maybe due to the objection i just stated, the passport is meant to also be granted to people who have a negative test. but if we're allowing travel and tourism again just on the basis of a negative test, sigh... again we're just *thinking* we're helping the economy but it will just make the whole thing worse again21:24
LjLsharkey, i am in italy too21:24
LjLhttps://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/si-lavora-passaporto-vaccinale-europeo-l-estate-ecco-cosa-conterra-AD9cNFNB21:24
sharkeydove?21:24
LjLmilano21:24
sharkeye perch� parliamo inglese allora?21:24
sharkey^^21:24
LjLbecause it's an english-speaking channel21:25
sharkeymilano dove? io pure21:25
LjLthere are 280 people here other than you and me21:25
LjLzona fiera21:25
sharkeyok io naviglio grande21:25
de-factoif protection from symptomatic COVID is not even well for vaccines, how would they assume it would be ok to travel with such a passport21:39
de-factoi assume it would have to be valid for any approved vaccine21:39
de-factosuch infections even could be selected to be the ones of concern21:42
de-factoobviously one would not want to import variants that can evade vaccinations21:42
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Diseases, Conditions, Syndromes: Ask the Pediatrician: Is it safe to travel over spring break this year? → https://is.gd/48Os6v21:45
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: COVID vaccine websites violate disability laws, create inequity for the blind: Many COVID vaccination registration and information websites at the federal, state and local levels violate disability rights laws, hindering the ability of blind people to sign up for a potentially lifesaving vaccine, a KHN investigation has found. → https://is.gd/yX5rln21:55
BrainstormNew from FDA Press Releases: FDA: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: March 2, 2021 → https://is.gd/YFKYVa22:05
BrainstormUpdates for France: +16814 cases (now 3.8 million), +329 deaths (now 87132) since 20 hours ago — Germany: +4208 cases (now 2.5 million), +293 deaths (now 70980) since 22 hours ago — Spain: +154 deaths (now 69763) since a day ago — Canada: +2273 cases (now 872020), +20 deaths (now 22024) since 22 hours ago22:17
BrainstormNew from NPR: Texas And Mississippi To Lift COVID-19 Mask Mandates And Business Capacity Limits: Texas Gov. Greg Abbott says his order ensures "that all businesses and families in Texas have the freedom to determine their own destiny." Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves tweeted: "It is time!" → https://is.gd/om86eA22:26
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Mikhail Gorbachev, last Soviet leader, turns 90 in quarantine → https://is.gd/uChDqf22:47
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Politics: Biden promises enough Covid-19 vaccines to inoculate all adult Americans by the end of May → https://is.gd/tGpDaw22:57
BrainstormNew from NPR: Biden Says U.S. Will Have Vaccine Supply For All Adults By May, Prioritizes Teachers: President Biden moves his timeline up by two months, while directing all 50 states and the District of Columbia to move school workers up in line for vaccinations, beginning next week. → https://is.gd/X4a1oT23:49
BrainstormUpdates for Togo: +153 cases (now 7086) since 23 hours ago23:50
xeneca[m]<LjL "anyway, maybe due to the objecti"> Correct, it should be at least two negative anal swabs.23:59

Generated by irclog2html.py 2.17.0 by Marius Gedminas - find it at https://mg.pov.lt/irclog2html/!