libera/##covid-19/ Thursday, 2021-03-04

BrainstormNew from Shane Crotty: @profshanecrotty: The tone and the content of this article are on point. And the "Scientific Whiplash" was accurate.https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-variants-insight/when-will-it-end-how-a-changing-virus-is-reshaping-scientists-views-on-covid-19-idUSKBN2AV1T1https://is.gd/lUO7eL00:17
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +7198 cases (now 2.5 million), +45 deaths (now 71370) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +2852 cases (now 1.1 million), +43 deaths (now 15723) since 22 hours ago — Canada: +2029 cases (now 875731), +34 deaths (now 22072) since 23 hours ago00:29
BrainstormNew from Shane Crotty: @profshanecrotty: R to @profshanecrotty: 30/ And yet they report ~30% of enrolled subjects in the vaccine trial were SARS2 seropositive at baseline? I still don't see a way to interpret that part of the study.Nevertheless, the protection observed in the per-protocol group (baseline neg) is good to see in a manuscript! → https://is.gd/i69n0500:37
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: China make Covid anal swabs mandatory for all foreign arrivals → https://is.gd/xGuUsm01:08
LjLhttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-variants-insight/when-will-it-end-how-a-changing-virus-is-reshaping-scientists-views-on-covid-19-idUSKBN2AV1T1 was kind of predictable really but still makes me sad, one hoped... for something like normality, not fear, death and lockdowns for years to come :(01:10
Jigsy%cases UK01:15
BrainstormJigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 4.2 million confirmed cases (6.3% of the population) and 123783 deaths (3.0% of cases) as of 3 hours ago. 92.3 million tests were performed (4.5% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data.01:15
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Covid: React study finds virus decline slowing in England: Infections fell by two-thirds in lockdown but one in 200 people still have the virus, a study says. → https://is.gd/nYaKTu01:18
LjL%tell de-facto https://nitter.dark.fail/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036#m  same rate of attack for SA COVID-19 in both vaccinated subjects and people who had already gotted non-SA COVID before. i think we're royally screwed.01:23
BrainstormLjL, I'll pass de-facto your message when they are around.01:23
de-factoArsanerit, https://www.bundesregierung.de/resource/blob/997532/1872054/66dba48b5b63d8817615d11edaaed849/2021-03-03-mpk-data.pdf?download=101:26
de-factoArsanerit, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=as7llyajdh401:26
LjLde-facto, pretty strange though... the whole thing Crotty has to say, which is that the findings are weird, and then there are similar findings with BNT https://nitter.dark.fail/pic/media%2FEs_vKUMXIAU32hm.png%3Fname%3Dorig01:27
LjLhow can people who already had COVID be at pretty much the same risk of getting COVID as people who haven't had it?01:27
de-facto.title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.25.21252477v101:31
Brainstormde-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Preliminary Efficacy of the NVX-CoV2373 Covid-19 Vaccine Against the B.1.351 Variant | medRxiv01:31
LjLthat's Novavax i assume?01:32
de-factoLjL, to be honest i dont expect so much difference for all of those 1st gen vaccines for B.1.351 on the long term01:32
de-factoyes Novavax01:32
LjLde-facto, but what i'm pointing at is not just vaccines, but natural immunity. natural immunity can be broader in theory, because it's not focused just on the spike protein. but according to these two datapoints, people who were infected before are just as likely to be infected again as people who never were!01:33
LjLde-facto, my personal feeling is that the mRNA vaccines, at least if done with the full two shots, will provide much more immunity againt B.1.351 than the adenovirus vaccines. but we'll see i guess01:34
LjLanyway the other thing is just weird01:34
de-factoB.1.351 is around 1% incidence in Germany currently01:35
de-factoB.1.1.7 around 46.1%01:36
de-factofortunately the newer data looks like the relative portion of B.1.1.7 is exponentially increasing but not with 180% of the classic reproduction (as seen in the previous data but "only" with 144% or such01:37
LjLde-facto, i've heard it's already estimated to be 3.8% here, although mostly near the Austrian border01:38
de-factostill working on the fit functions01:38
LjLde-facto, something i wonder is the B.1.1.7 vs B.1.351 match01:38
LjLwho wins01:38
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Recent Commits to links:master: Linkify statement about lower efficacy of Novavax in South Africa ( https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/bdd9cc98bd2c2ec217054c94d5c5063bc2c3ff11 )01:38
de-factoyeah there is more B.1.351 in Austria/Tirol and some other places (France?)01:38
BrainstormNew from Politico: Germany extends coronavirus lockdown, but eases some measures: From March 8, book shops, florists and garden centers may reopen, and up to 5 people from 2 different households will be permitted to meet. → https://is.gd/99hKYW01:38
LjLprobably B.1.315 if people are vaccinated against the other one01:38
LjLde-facto, one change that Draghi did to the rules that i find welcome is that travel between different region is now banned, regardless what "color" they are01:39
de-factoLjL, if vaccination is done with the Wuhan spike B.1.351 wins in a vaccinated cohort, while in an unvaccinaged cohort B.1.1.7 dominates01:39
LjLde-facto, do we know the latter part though? i haven't really read anything about the infectiousness of B.1.315. we know B.1.1.7 is more infectious than the regular variant, but do we know anything about that for B.1.315?01:40
de-factonewest data for the VoCs relative incidence in Germany is on https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/DESH/Bericht_VOC_2021-03-03.pdf?__blob=publicationFile01:41
LjLSouth Tyrol appears to be a "red zone" currently, which is good i guess if they are harboring the SA variant01:41
de-factowe dont have enough data for B.1.351 in Germany yet01:42
LjLde-facto, isn't prevalence of B.1.351 a bit too low to say anything?01:42
LjLyeah01:42
de-factoit looks like it increases though01:43
LjLde-facto, well, i'd say there is at least indirect evidence that it's more infectious than plain D614G if it represents more than 90% of cases in SA now01:44
LjLand that's definitely not because most of the population is vaccinated against D614G01:44
de-factoyeah but SA also got a lot of seropositive from the first wave there01:45
LjLhm so it could prevail due to natural immunity evasion?01:46
de-factohence its immuno-evasive capabilities are a real selection factor in its reproduction there01:46
LjLthat wouldn't be great news either though at all01:46
de-factoi guess so, isnt that what all the fuzz around it is about?01:46
LjLde-facto, my understanding was the fuss was mainly about evading *vaccines*, which is not necessarily the same as evading natural immunity01:47
LjL(at least unless the evaded vaccine is something like an attenuated virus)01:47
LjLthe only variant about which i knew there were clear hints of natural immunity evasion was the Brazil variant01:48
de-factoi thought it was the other way around, it became a variant of interest because it was seen to cause reinfections and then the also looked at vaccine evasion01:48
LjLi dunno, maybe you're right, i'm just saying what i've seen, there's a lot of stuff going on that i don't get to read01:48
BrainstormNew from https://covid19.specops.network : Linkify statement about lower efficacy of Novavax in South Africa: The basic data were already there from the press release, but add the study paper courtesy de-facto → https://is.gd/EC5fQQ01:49
LjLbut we talked a lot about the reinfections in Manaus01:49
de-factobut i might be wrong about that, i just assume that because it would be the natural way of things occurring when there are a lot more seroconverted from recovery than from vaccination (that is only about to start right now)01:49
LjLi don't remember big discussions about reinfections in SA01:49
LjLi wish Covidly added vaccination data so i could add it to Brainstorm in the lazy way01:51
de-factobtw im working on fitting data on the VoC data for Germany, but i want to be sure its correct before i share it here, so since i am so tired maybe tomorrow or such01:52
LjLde-facto, to see the R of the various variants?01:52
de-factoyes but they provide three different tables there, im not sure yet which one to use01:53
LjLde-facto, in any case, they are all numbers from tracing, not from random samples, right?01:54
de-factobtw we are going to get antigen-quicktests in the supermarkets01:55
LjLfinally01:55
de-facto5 tests for 25 € or such01:55
de-factohmm i am not sure about that anymore, at least it was discussed before01:57
LjLde-facto, i'm quite confused by tables 2 and 3 in https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/DESH/Bericht_VOC_2021-03-03.pdf?__blob=publicationFile - doesn't the caption basically say they are the same thing, except the numbers are very different?01:58
de-factoyes my confusion aswell01:59
de-factoi think its from different sources02:01
LjLde-facto, uhm yeah, i'm reading it translated, it seems to be saying that the data from table 2 are based on all the various laboratories using their own methods (maybe sequencing, but maybe the "UK test") to determine VoC, while table 3 is based on whole-genome sequencing by RKI of a more limited number of samples, around 10k02:03
LjLsometimes Brainstorm just gets bored of us02:03
de-factotable 1 and table 2 basically show very similar curves (R~138% and R~144%), table 3 a bit different (R~1.24%) at first sight02:03
LjLi've ignored table 1 because it has less granular / complete data02:04
de-factoyeah it fits quite well in the data from table 202:04
LjLschade dass ich für zwei jahre deutsch studiert habe, und alles vergessen02:05
de-factoi have to look at it in detail, since this is important to estimate how its going to progress02:05
LjL(to be fair it was weekly afternoon classes)02:05
de-factowow LjL das war aber schon perfektes Deutsch02:06
de-factolanguage genius, not only Python :P02:06
LjLi like languages02:06
LjLbut that was a simple sentences with simple words02:06
de-factoi noticed that, you speak a lot of languages and you are very fast at translating02:07
LjLfor example i initially wanted to write "and remember nothing", but i couldn't remember the word for... "remember" :P02:07
LjLi've learned some swedish and it has somehow overwritten what i knew of german02:07
de-factowas quite impressed by your life translation from Italy press conference into perfect English, i could not even have typed so fast02:07
LjLi try to think of the word for remember, and "minns" comes up, but that's swedish02:07
LjLheh i was almost impressed myself02:07
LjLmaybe i should have studied to become a translator instead of doing computer stuff02:08
de-facto*live translation02:08
* de-facto cant even spell correctly without time pressure02:08
LjLi don't even like computers anymore, with what they're becoming wrt regulations, governments, corportations, etc02:08
LjLthere was a press conference by our health minister yesterday02:09
LjLit's the first press conference since the new government02:10
LjLbut i didn't even remember about it, so i didn't do the whole translation thing02:10
LjLit was probably pretty boring anyway02:10
LjLDraghi seems lower-key than Conte, in speaking to the public02:10
LjLfor starters, he made the health minister speak, instead of doing it himself like Conte always did... and it wasn't even broadcast on TV02:10
LjLhopefully he speaks less and does more02:10
de-factohopefully indeed02:16
LjL%tr <it Poi però le persone devono imparare alcune regole molto semplici come il continuo lavaggio delle mani, imparare a non stare troppo vicino agli altri. A una normalità totale non ci arriveremo più. Anche in futuro non staremo più vicini in coda ad esempio, si eviterà di fare, cambieremo le nostre abitudini perchè questo virus sarà il nostro compagnio di viaggio per molti anni cosi come è già per altri virus e batteri.02:29
BrainstormLjL, Italian to English: But then people have to learn some very simple rules like continuous hand washing, learn not to be too close to others. We will no longer achieve total normality. Even in the future we will no longer be close in the queue, for example, we will avoid doing, we will change our habits because this virus will be our travel companion for many years as it is [... want %more?]02:29
LjL— one of our many TV-happy hospital directors02:30
pigughsblame the victims not the govt ?02:31
LjLwell i didn't think of that02:32
LjLi guess it would be a fair argument that "continuous hand washing" is more like what governments have figuratively done02:32
LjLbut i'm now kind of more fixating onto the whole thing where scientific consensus appears to be moving towards that this virus will never go away (we already knew that, but now they mean it more in terms of "it'll be endemic in a bothersome way")02:33
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +7634 cases (now 2.5 million), +386 deaths (now 71711) since 8 hours ago — United Kingdom: +4804 cases (now 4.2 million) since 20 hours ago — Netherlands: +2262 cases (now 1.1 million), +28 deaths (now 15724) since 20 hours ago — Canada: +1385 cases (now 875941), +60 deaths (now 22105) since 20 hours ago02:34
LjLmaybe we should change our travel habits in view of biosecurity like de-facto says, fine, i kinda likely the idea of traveling freely (although i didn't often do it) but i suppose i can live without it02:34
LjLbut having to obsess on how close i am to the next person in the queue for the rest of my life?02:34
LjLmeh :(02:34
LjL%w lavarsi le mani02:35
BrainstormLjL, English spelling suggestions: varsity Le main (myspell/en*) — lava's Le Mani (aspell/en*)02:35
LjL%w lavarsene le mani02:35
BrainstormLjL, lavarsene le mani  — verb: 1. (idiomatic) to wash one's hands of → https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/lavarsene_le_mani02:35
BrainstormNew from University of Washington: Paul Drain Appointed to NIH Study Section for Implementation Science: Paul Drain Headshot.jpg The National Institutes of Health recently announced new members to serve on the Science of Implementation in Health and Healthcare (SIHH) Study Section, including Paul Drain, Associate Professor at the University of [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/I6us7k02:41
de-factoalways important for politicians to wash their hands ;)03:07
BrainstormNew from Shane Crotty: @profshanecrotty: R to @profshanecrotty: On the flip side (not needing new vac) :🔴 The current COVID vaccines (or most of them) may very well protect excellently against B1351-like variants for hospitalization-level COVID and deaths. The J&J 1-dose vaccine looks that way. There aren't direct data for the RNA vaccines → https://is.gd/hIz04v03:11
de-factooh there LjL exactly what i was saying ^^ the vaccines probably protecting from severe progressions still03:12
LjLde-facto, it would be "fun" if we discovered that the mRNA vaccines *don't* protect from that03:19
de-factoalso citing Shane Crotty: "No vaccine has a reported efficacy against B1351 for symptomatic COVID better than ~60%"03:19
LjLalthough ultimately all these vaccines are producing the same protein, they may trigger different antibody levels, but what else can they do that's different?03:19
LjLde-facto, yes, well, mainly 'cause we haven't tested them03:19
LjLanyway, i'm afraid to me his "flip side" is still not making up for the "it will never end" part ;(03:20
de-factoyes exactly why i am expecting them to play somewhat in the same league in regard to b.1.35103:20
LjLsame league, but more antibodies, afaik03:20
de-factosure levels may be different, but the variant of s-protein is more or less the same03:20
LjLalso am i the only one who thinks Twitter is a quite ridiculous venue to write *long* mini-essays on things, with each tween being marked n/m?03:21
de-factowe will know exact numbers for that soon since both BioNTech and Moderna intend to run trials for booster shots03:21
de-factocorrection: update shots03:21
CoronaBot/r/coronavirus: Alamo Drafthouse Will Continue COVID-19 Safety Measures in Texas Despite State Reopening (10005 votes) | https://variety.com/2021/film/news/alamo-drafthouse-covid19-safety-measures-texas-reopening-1234920366/ | https://redd.it/lwrmn403:22
de-factothey want to test a b.1.351 s-protein vaccine against their old variant for the update shot as well as a multivalent mix03:22
LjLdo you know if novavax has better or worse antibody tithers elicited than moderna/bnt?03:22
de-factooh i dont now exact numbers for those03:22
de-factoid rather compare efficacy from trials03:23
LjLde-facto, well efficacy is around 95% (on the original variant) for all of Novavax, BNT, and Moderna, so that doesn't tell me much03:24
LjLbut the different levels of antibodies elicited may have an impact on how well they can cope with variants03:24
xeneca[m]<de-facto "international travel by any huma"> Yes leaving our homes should also be illegal. We need strict rules for the sake of biosecurity.03:25
de-factoit depends on the current situation but with traveling both the initial spread as well as now the import of the escaping mutants took place, hence it causes problems for all of us, not only the travelers03:26
LjLxeneca[m], for how long, though? if "this will never end", as apparently scientists are not having some consensus on saying, i really don't want to have our established rights curtailed for the rest of my life. i've been all in favor of strict lockdowns, but with a specific goal in mind: getting rid of it.03:26
LjLare now*03:27
de-factoxeneca[m], so you are comparing apples with pears there, leaving the home is potentially local transmission, international passenger airtravel is planet wide transmission with a latency of hours to days03:28
xeneca[m]<LjL "why all this ridiculous bad publ"> Because they are a communist dictatorship.03:29
LjLxeneca[m], that really doesn't answer it. i made some quite elaborate statement on the whole thing. "because they are a communist dictatorship" is honestly just a demented answer.03:30
LjLi'm quite sick of this03:30
LjLwe are faring much worse than them03:30
LjLbut we have the utter arrogance of thinking what they do doesn't matter "because they are a communist dictatorship"03:30
LjLmeanwhile, we're dying by the thousands each day from this, and they aren't03:30
de-factoand home quarantine for travel returnees potentially infected with the VoCs apparently does not work either, how else could we have imported up to ~50% B.1.1.7 and ~1% B.1.351 in Germany for example? Surely the biosecurity concepts in place were leaky enough to permit for that03:30
de-factocorrection: we have imported enough B.1.1.7 to seed incidence up to 50% now (ofc we did not import those 50% but breed them from the initial imports), same for B.1.35103:32
xeneca[m]<asdflkj "TIL that annual road accidents d"> Interesting.03:32
de-factoi think quarantine should be in special places like hotels and strictly controlled, people are not to be trusted with sticking to the rules if it comes to importing problems with pathogen or their variants of concern03:34
de-factolike New Zealand does it for example03:34
xeneca[m]<asdflkj "> it rises exponentially < that'"> Has Sweden got more deaths than lockdown countries?03:34
LjLxeneca[m], it's hard to compare with countries in completely different areas, with completely different population densities, etc... but when you compare it with its neighbors, yes, most definitely, by far: http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Sweden;Denmark;Norway;Finland&byPopulation=yes03:36
de-factosweden got a lot more deaths than other comparable countries03:36
de-factooh LjL was faster, i was preparing exactly the same link03:36
xeneca[m]<LjL "xeneca, it's hard to compare wit"> What about countries with strict lockdowns like France03:37
xeneca[m]I'm talking about deaths btw not infections.03:38
de-factotry to compare countries with similar conditions like population density, surroundings, traveling etc03:38
de-factoyes deaths03:38
de-factoCOVID with fatal outcome03:38
LjLxeneca[m], if you talked to French people with a clue, you'd realize there was no "strict" lockdown. look at New Zealand and Australia, for effective lockdowns.03:38
LjL(still not comparable with Sweden, but at least, actual lockdowns)03:39
LjLi'm also talking about deaths. i'm sure you've scrolled down in the page to the graph with deaths, instead of closing it where it had just cases...03:39
de-factoactually tinwhiskers site still is one of the best for such things, very well done03:40
xeneca[m]France had some very strict restrictions. What was done in Australia can't be done in America03:41
LjLFrance has about the same type of restrictions as my country. they were not strict enough.03:42
BrainstormNew from Shane Crotty: @profshanecrotty: R to @profshanecrotty: But, still the best case scenario is to have great COVID vaccines that prevent almost all symptomatic infections--and prevent virus transmission, both preventing more cases and helping prevent future variants. Overall, those outcomes are best for the individual and the community. → https://is.gd/2eHl2e03:42
LjL"very strict" is relative. America has behaved like a bunch of morons, mostly.03:42
LjLjust because France was stricter than America doesn't somehow make France's lockdown strict *enough* to contain the virus. Clearly, New Zealand's actions did.03:43
LjLwhether those can be replicated in America is America's problem, really03:43
LjLi believe they can and should be replicated in a more coordinated Europe03:43
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Recent Commits to links:master: Add note about people joining just to mock or who don&#39;t believe the v… ( https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/d670dd6d90a110556999f38bfe3fd9dd791e934b )03:43
de-factoto be fair, it becomes more difficult to contain with incidence rising, hence zero-covid makes much sense03:44
pigughsLjL: yep, worse03:44
LjLyes, we may have missed the train, i don't know03:44
LjLbut i don't see a better route to pursue anyway, even now03:44
xeneca[m]<LjL ""very strict" is relative. Ameri"> America has strict rules in civil rights, there's only so much that can be done.03:44
de-factoNew Zealand was smart enough (just as China and others) to never tolerate incidence rising above a critical value where it would get out of their control03:44
pigughsxeneca[m]: I respectfully disagree03:45
de-factomost western countries even tolerated demonstrations against containment, hence now we have astronomical incidence and much less chance to contain it03:45
de-factotrack and tracing then isolate only works as long as enough resources are available to do that03:46
de-factozero-covid means no cases of unknown origin (hence no "dark" community transmission)03:46
LjLxeneca[m], the constitution in my country places health among inalienable rights of all citizens. America's clearly doesn't, seeing the sorry state of healthcare when it comes to people who aren't made of money. so yeah in my country you can curtain some civil rights when they heavily impact everyone's health - with health constantly in jeopardy, there isn't much freedom to be enjoyed. maybe america should take notes on thaat.03:48
LjLcurtail*03:48
LjLanyway, i'm not entirely sure how we got from "did Sweden did worse than other countries?" → "actually yes" → "well but America couldn't do those things anyway"03:48
de-factoits easy to isolate a cluster, but its very hard to trace down a similar amount of cases in community transmission especially if not much time or employees are available to do that03:48
de-factoin the case of higher incidence (hence pressure on all resources like time, employees, isolation places, hospital resources etc)03:49
xeneca[m]<de-facto "zero-covid means no cases of unk"> I guess the question becomes what is the price of liberty. Looking at the numbers I expected Sweden to have a lot more deaths with their survival of the fittest mentality.03:50
pigughsLjL: from what I gather, initially many countries UK, Netherlands and US were promoting Herd Immunity, and in the US there was a federal effort to do *less testing so ..03:50
LjLpigughs, not sure about the NL, but definitely add Sweden to that03:51
LjLxeneca[m], well let's look at the economy, since that's often an argument against lockdowns. New Zealand was the only country to be *up*rated by... i don't know which rating agency, one of those anyway03:52
pigughsI remember early on reading a Netherlands policy page, on herd immunity, sort of made sense at the time, but then ..03:52
LjLtheir strict lockdowns and quarantines paid off03:52
de-factoxeneca[m], the price of liberty is too high if it means loosing the control of a potential deadly pathogen (and this one is not even close to the worst we can imagine, its pretty much a "demonstration case" on how things could go wrong)03:52
LjLand they also meant that, in exchange for *brief* limitations of rights, most of the time now New Zealanders can enjoy roughly the same rights they had before03:52
xeneca[m]<LjL "anyway, i'm not entirely sure ho"> I remind you america is not a socialized country, if the public don't consent they will show the government the limits of power.03:53
LjLin Europe (and partly the US despite everything), instead, we have a constantly deteriorated enjoyment of freedom... wouldn't it be much better if we just STUCK INSIDE for a while, got the thing under control, and then we could be free like New Zealanders?03:53
pigughsI don't think NZ has or does wear masks03:53
de-factojust imagine a respiratory virus with similar transmission paths and slow incubation (hence presymptomatic transmissions) but going for the neuronal route, e.g. as deadly as rabies or nipah or such03:53
BrainstormNew from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Add note about people joining just to mock or who don't believe the v… → https://is.gd/MRyPkD03:53
pigughsxeneca[m]: your being rhetorical03:53
LjLxeneca[m], i think it's ridiculous that you presume that in a "socialized country" the public will somehow shut up if they don't agree with the government03:54
LjLon a completely unrelated note, i must say with some disappointment that despite the quantity of users from Matrix, the quality seems to be distinctly higher on IRC.03:55
xeneca[m]<de-facto "xeneca, the price of liberty is "> When you have states in the Union with mottos like "live free or die" there's no way it can be controlled.03:55
de-factoyeah i agree there is a problem with that03:56
LjLxeneca[m], well, just their luck, it seems to be "live free AND die" now03:56
xeneca[m]<LjL "on a completely unrelated note, "> Well the US has a well armed population, things are not so easy03:56
de-factoi guess we should take the opportunity to think about what we can learn from this pandemic for the future, because that is what will stay on the long term03:56
de-factoas i said its an excellent demonstration on how things could go down the wrong route and the opportunity to do studies on that to prevent that with more effective biosecurity concepts than only to "close everything" because that pretty much is the admittance on a failure to do it any better03:58
de-factoobviously noone would want a lockdown, hence everything else to control contagion should be tried before, if it came to the lockdown it means that there was not done enough in advance to prevent that undesired outcome with more smart concepts03:59
pigughsxeneca[m]: do you live in the US?04:00
pigughsAmerica might have done much better, if it wasn't a re-election year, and the current times are divisive, nothing much to do with guns04:01
Sazarashiyeah basically everything that ever happens becomes "political" in the US atm, even if it's a public health crisis04:02
Sazarashithough i say "atm" as if that isn't how it's always been it's just been more obvious in recent times04:02
CoronaBot/r/coronavirus: Biden on states lifting COVID restrictions: "The last thing we need is Neanderthal thinking" (10055 votes) | https://www.axios.com/biden-coronavirus-texas-mississippi-1e8a4662-3382-43f8-97f0-8047ebc5c875.html | https://redd.it/lx264t04:04
pigughsSazarashi: in the 1970s there was the Swine Flu, there was very little of the current anti-science everything, there were other issues, but not like this04:06
BrainstormUpdates for St. Barthelemy: +65 cases (now 638) since 8 days ago04:07
xeneca[m]<pigughs "America might have done much bet"> I'm saying the Australian measures would have lead to bloodshed in the US.04:07
LjLxeneca[m], what DO you propose as measures that could contain the loss of life and even larger loss of decent health in the US from this virus, without causing bloodshed?04:08
de-factoit all depends on the perspective on the pandemic, if people begin to think about how to learn from it and how to improve concepts and infrastructure, scientific approaches and decision finding, biosecurity and health infrastructure, even structure of communities and society itself it might be a very good thing that it took place looking back at it from a few decades into the future when the next zoonotic pathogen infected the first04:08
de-factohuman launching a new epidemic that hopefully can be contained due to what we have learned now04:08
xeneca[m]* I'm saying the Australian measures would have led to bloodshed in the US.04:08
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Recent Commits to links:master: Reword and add note about ignoring loss of life and effects ( https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/4ea73f1f47fb19e9b1fd12ca658fbbd209503ea4 )04:08
Sazarashipigughs: The United States very much did cover up the Spanish Flu outbreak however for political reasons during that whole shabang04:09
xeneca[m]<LjL "xeneca, what DO you propose as m"> I don't think its possible. If ppl want to die then that is their right.04:10
de-factoif containing the spread of a pathogen is expected to lead to bloodshed in the US then there obviously is a problem to be addressed, because its not a question if the next pathogen will reach also the USA, its just a question of when it will happen again04:10
xeneca[m]Ultimately there will be segregation.04:11
Sazarashipeople wanting to die themselves is one thing but people's recklessness causing other people to be caught in the crossfire by spreading the virus is another ballgame04:11
de-factofull ack04:12
xeneca[m]<de-facto "if containing the spread of a pa"> The US is not a country where it is possible to do these things legally. The constitution and the bill of rights put very strict restrictions on civil rights interventions (even medical).04:13
de-factowell yes and that is a good thing in many situations where power to the people makes sense, but if it leads to something like civil war making containing a pathogen spread virtually impossible it is a problem in that case (obviously)04:14
BrainstormNew from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Reword and add note about ignoring loss of life and effects → https://is.gd/MuCoHL04:14
xeneca[m]<Sazarashi "people wanting to die themselves"> That's why there needs to be segregation, those that don't want to risk their lives should be allowed to segregate from society.04:15
de-factothe problem is its not so easy to segregate, how would mixing be prevented if even international traveling still is tolerated04:16
de-factobasically we all sit in one boat with this04:16
de-factoalso in regard to breeding new evasive mutants etc04:16
de-factounless addressed globally it wont be under control04:17
xeneca[m]<de-facto "the problem is its not so easy t"> Separate "clean" airports for the "clean" minority04:17
de-factohence it makes sense to share vaccines, because e.g. if US is not exporting any vaccines and other countries breed new evasive mutants they will reinfect also US citizens once they are imported04:17
de-factoyeah the concept of zero-covid with green zones spreading04:18
xeneca[m]<de-facto "also in regard to breeding new e"> Well that would be in separate places, like apartheid south africa04:18
de-factofree travel zones between locations where it is strictly and completely (hence zero cases of unknown origin) under control04:19
de-factobut then again, its how it all started with free traveling, so maybe also some sort of biosecurity concepts would have to be integrated04:19
de-factoi dont know how exactly that would work, it should be derived from what we can observe by now04:20
de-factoxeneca[m], well exactly that, and how we have an evasive mutant being imported from south africa04:21
de-factoif vaccine "green traveling" passports are going to be a thing, then we even have an explicit selection function to only import those variants that can evade the vaccines, hence the ones that really will cause problems04:22
de-factoimho it wont stop unless new infections are being brought down globally synchronized04:23
de-factohence we should share all resources and technology *globally* at the same time to bring it down04:23
de-factoand the best we currently have are vaccines with updates agains the newest VoCs04:23
de-factosegregation will not work, exactly because it always will ensure the pathogen can survive and breed new variants of concern04:24
de-factoit may work if we had two planets with absolutely no traveling between them04:24
de-factobut obviously we dont have that, hence with all of humanity sharing the same earth and global traveling in hours to days being a thing segregation will never work ever04:25
LjLxeneca[m], excuse me? what does breeding immune-evasive mutants have to do with "apartheid south africa"?04:26
xeneca[m]<de-facto "and the best we currently have a"> I think the best we can do is create voluntary communities of zero covid. These communities can link up globally using special infrastructure. Its no point trying to force the masses, it will just lead to more contagion.04:27
de-factothe problem is there will be no such thing as perfect isolation, it can be tried to bring down incidence but it always will be leaky04:28
de-factoits pretty much similar to an infection in the human body, as long as the pathogen is tolerated to hide in some places it will come back04:28
LjLi'm glad that's the only problem you see with these suggestions04:28
xeneca[m]<LjL "xeneca, excuse me? what does bre"> I don't think you understood, the question was how do we segregate non compliant citizens from responsible ones. The solution given was apartheid not on racial but on medical grounds.04:28
LjLyeah well how about those who DO want to risk their lives segregate? the way you're stating this it's clearly going to be the burden of those who don't want to get sick to create their own mini-communities and their own mini-infrastructure. to hell with that.04:29
de-factothe problem is as long as non-compliant citizens are tolerated they will pose a health thread also for the compliant ones because isolation or segregation always will be leaky04:30
de-factoi mean it does not even work with protecting high risk groups e.g. in elderly homes etc with everyone trying their best to prevent transmission04:31
de-factohow is that supposed to work when people are non-compliant then04:31
xeneca[m]<LjL "yeah well how about those who DO"> Yes of course, let the herd live in the wild west and create safe zones for the responsible ones.04:31
xeneca[m]<de-facto "i mean it does not even work wit"> Ejection from the community.04:32
pigughslaughable, denial IMO04:32
pigughs..there would be bloodshed, specifically from the seditionists04:32
de-factoas long as the pathogen is tolerated in the "herd living the wild west" it will be reimported back to the green zones, its like trying to extinguish a fire but never going the full way04:33
de-factothe green zones can help to bring incidence down though because maintaining a green zone is much easier than containing the pathogen in a similar size community with random spread04:34
LjLde-facto, tbh that's probably a bad example, large fires (like those in the wild west!) are usually not really "extinguished", instead trenches are created where the fire can't spread, and then the fire is basically allowed to eat up everything else until it has no more fuel04:34
LjLbecause it's not really feasible to extinguish them04:34
LjLso that would be... vaguely similar to gaining natural herd immunity, i guess :\04:34
de-factoso the resources can then be concentrated on the problem zones to expand the green zones globally, but no "red zones" ever are tolerable on the long term04:34
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Canada vaccine panel recommends 4 months between COVID doses → https://is.gd/boxLq604:35
de-factoi think its pretty similar to fire consuming the resource it requires to spread, the resource also growing back (immunity waning) so reinfections may be possible after some time04:36
xeneca[m]<de-facto "so the resources can then be con"> There is a danger that the "total" approach fails and then there are no more clean zones. Its better to protect the good eggs.04:36
de-factoyes but what tracing resources are required once there is no more community transmission?04:38
pigughsxeneca[m]: so build a wall, and get mexico to pay for it ?04:38
de-factoe.g. how many tracing resources are in use in Australia compared to when they had community transmission?04:38
xeneca[m]<de-facto "yes but what tracing resources a"> Yes, i guess this could be civil rights/data protection concern, but it's something that can be discussed beforehand.04:39
de-factoif those resources of one green zone become free they can be invested in more quantity into expanding the green zone and defending its borders04:39
xeneca[m]<de-facto "if those resources of one green "> And green zones could link up internationally like the city states of old.04:41
Specooo a snowcrash future, nice04:42
de-factowell on the short term yes, but on the long term we also should think about how to prevent to end up where we reached right now04:42
de-factoand that was by spreading an (back then) unknown pathogen globally by international travel04:42
Specwould probably have been wise to stop international travel in the early phases04:44
de-factoi dont know how exactly such a concept would work, but i think by observing the exact transmission paths now in as much detail as possible comes with the opportunity to develop such a concept on the base of real world data04:44
de-factoand if implemented soon enough (with SARS-CoV-2 variants still in circulation) even could be tested in real world scenario04:44
de-factoimho this is a HUGE opportunity04:45
de-factoit already looks like it induced a leap in medical technology, hopefully also in other areas with generic (pathogen unspecific, transmission path targeting) capabilities in terms of biosecurity04:48
de-factoimproving on this will increase liberty on the long term, because it should prevent this from happening again04:48
xeneca[m]Lab leaks can always happen again.04:52
de-factoyeah and spillover of pathogen from animal as well04:52
xeneca[m]Yes, animal husbandry has to improve04:53
de-factohence with proper concepts in place its the spread to target for preventing a global pandemic from such inevitable events04:53
xeneca[m]Putting multiple species in small cages is never a good idea04:53
de-factoindividual cases will happen, be it leaky lab security or zoonotic origins04:54
de-factothere are many tens of thousands more coronaviruses in bat population alone, just as one example04:54
de-factosome of them surely capable to infect humans04:55
de-factoor nipah virus, or $you_name_it04:55
de-factotbh its not SARS-CoV-2 itself that scares me the most about this pandemic, its how inadequate the reaction of humanity is on so many different levels to such a thread04:57
de-factoCOVID will not be the problem after some time, but if the problems with how humanity deals with such things are not addressed now they will be just exactly the same in the next pandemic and it will come04:58
xeneca[m]With space travel becoming more commercialized there's probably more pathogens we will have to contend with.05:02
xeneca[m]I also think there are quite a number of ppl that are completely immune to it.05:03
LjLthere are people who get asymptomatic infections. nobody is "immune" in the medical sense of the word.05:05
LjL(well, nobody who hasn't been vaccinated or has already had it)05:06
xeneca[m]<LjL "there are people who get asympto"> I've known ppl who shared a bed with infected partners, practiced zero distancing and tested negative.05:12
xeneca[m]Three cases so anecdotal05:12
xeneca[m]But still interesting05:12
de-factowas it early in the pandemic or later?05:13
Specxeneca[m]: hmm, more pathogens from space travel?05:16
BrainstormUpdates for Antigua and Barb.: +5 deaths (now 19) since 2 days ago — Seychelles: +41 cases (now 2890), +2 deaths (now 13) since 23 hours ago — New Zealand: +5 cases (now 2389) since 23 hours ago05:21
* de-facto urgently needs to get some sleep, has to wake up in 4h daaaang05:21
CoronaBot/r/covid19: SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 is susceptible to neutralizing antibodies elicited by ancestral Spike vaccines (82 votes) | https://www.cell.com/cell-host-microbe/fulltext/S1931-3128(21)00102-5 | https://redd.it/lx4l3505:23
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Germany extends lockdown but paves way to relax more rules → https://is.gd/Nl1nOb05:49
BrainstormNew from This Week In Virology: TWiV 726: Molecular animator Janet Iwasa: Janet Iwasa joins TWiV to recount how she became a molecular animator, including a pivot during her Ph.D. thesis research, the value of animations in science, and their latest animation of SARS-CoV-2 entry into cells. → https://is.gd/iNfzel06:10
BrainstormNew from EurekAlert!: Air pollution fell sharply during lockdown: Analyses by the University of Innsbruck show that traffic restrictions during the first lockdown last March led to a sharp drop in air pollutant emissions, significantly more than for carbon dioxide. The study confirms the assumption that traffic is significantly underestimated as a [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/JcezPk06:31
BrainstormNew preprint: Preliminary Efficacy of the NVX-CoV2373 Covid-19 Vaccine Against the B.1.351 Variant by Vivek Shinde et al, made available as preprint on 2021-03-03 at https://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2021.02.25.21252477 [... want %more?]06:54
BrainstormUpdates for Belgium: +3264 cases (now 777608), +28 deaths (now 22169) since 23 hours ago07:07
BrainstormUpdates for France: +13422 cases (now 3.8 million) since 23 hours ago — Lombardy, Italy: +4590 cases (now 613568), +60 deaths (now 28518) since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +6402 cases (now 4.2 million), +487 deaths (now 123900) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +3767 cases (now 1.1 million), +36 deaths (now 15748) since 23 hours ago07:19
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Covid-19: New vaccines for variants to be fast-tracked: Rapid approval without lengthy tests can happen if new vaccines are needed to fight variants, say regulators. → https://is.gd/9iyzuj07:22
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: English COVID-19 prevalence dropping at slower rate, study finds → https://is.gd/SdqL9m08:03
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | March 04, 2021: The World Health Organization maintains up-to-date and global information. Please refer to our Wiki for additional information. You can find answers to frequently asked questions about Covid-19 and vaccines in our FAQ . → https://is.gd/ROIyu209:05
BrainstormNew from WHO Euro: Inspiring change: women’s leadership in health care is vital during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond: COVID-19 continues to exacerbate existing inequalities and place a disproportionate burden on women, including in health-care settings. Women health workers are faced with increased workloads, a gender pay gap, shortages of [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/CAcEcu09:36
BrainstormNew from EMA: News and press releases: EMA starts rolling review of the Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine , , 04/03/2021: EMA’s human medicines committee (CHMP) has started a rolling review of Sputnik V (Gam-COVID-Vac), a COVID-19 vaccine1 developed by Russia’s Gamaleya... → https://is.gd/9R9sFu10:07
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Germany extends lockdown but paves way to relax more rules: Germany is extending its coronavirus shutdown by three weeks until March 28, but easing some restrictions to allow nonessential stores and other businesses to reopen in areas with relatively low infection rates. → https://is.gd/Bvzlg110:17
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Health: In Palm Beach, Covid-19 vaccines intended for rural Black communities are instead going to wealthy white Floridians → https://is.gd/ziRUmp10:39
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Germany, Belgium to recommend AstraZeneca jab for seniors: Germany will soon authorise the AstraZeneca/Oxford COVID-19 vaccine for people over the age of 65, Chancellor Angela Merkel said Wednesday, the same day Belgium authorised its rollout to seniors. → https://is.gd/CAoI4f10:49
BrainstormNew from Politico: Clinical trials: UK regulator speeds process to OK coronavirus vaccines for new variants → https://is.gd/HrlXko11:20
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: European Union begins review of Russia's Sputnik Covid vaccine → https://is.gd/mwipNM11:30
BrainstormNew from EMA: What's new: Medicine: Human medicines European public assessment report (EPAR): Nimenrix, meningococcal groups A, C, W-135 and Y conjugate vaccine, Meningitis, Meningococcal, Date of authorisation: 20/04/2012, Revision: 32, Status: Authorised → https://is.gd/vDOl9K11:51
CoronaBot/r/covid19: UK Government to develop ​‘library’ of mRNA vaccines to help fight new COVID-19 variants (81 votes) | https://www.uk-cpi.com/news/cpi-receives-5million-investment-from-uk-government-to-develop-library-of-mrna-vaccines-to-help-fight-new-covid-19-variants | https://redd.it/lxfho411:55
BrainstormNew from EMA: What's new: Document: COVID-19 vaccine safety update for Comirnaty: March 2021 → https://is.gd/iVKw7n12:02
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Convocazione del Consiglio dei Ministri n. 5 ( http://www.governo.it/it/articolo/convocazione-del-consiglio-dei-ministri-n-5/16349 )12:07
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Consiglio dei Ministri n. 5 ( http://www.governo.it/it/articolo/consiglio-dei-ministri-n-5/16351 )12:07
BrainstormNew from BMJ: Covid-19: Government pursued in the courts over controversial antibody test: Legal campaigners have vowed to continue their action against the government over the maladministration of public funds involving a rapid antibody test.The Good Law Project, a not-for-profit legal... → https://is.gd/JHbtba12:33
BrainstormNew from BMJ: Covid-19: Highest death rates seen in countries with most overweight populations: Covid-19 death rates are 10 times higher in countries where more than half of the adult population is classified as overweight, a comprehensive report from the World Obesity Foundation has found.The... → https://is.gd/mQoFPf12:43
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Irony as Sahara dust returns radiation of French nuclear tests in '60s → https://is.gd/MynC0b12:54
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: EU regulator starts a review of Russia’s COVID-19 vaccine → https://is.gd/d2xfwD13:15
BrainstormUpdates for Malta: +362 cases (now 23588), +4 deaths (now 325) since 23 hours ago13:19
BrainstormNew from Virology.ws: One and Done: by Gertrud U. Rey On February 27, 2021, the FDA issued an emergency use authorization for a third SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. The vaccine was developed by Janssen Pharmaceutica, a Belgium-based division of Johnson & Johnson, in collaboration with Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston. Perhaps the most exciting [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/gac7BS13:46
BrainstormNew from BMJ: Covid-19: 237m vaccine doses to be distributed worldwide over next three months: The Covax Facility (Covax) has announced where 237 million doses of the Oxford AstraZeneca covid-19 vaccine will be delivered during the first round of its worldwide allocation. It said that the... → https://is.gd/ClcX2m13:56
BrainstormNew from Science-Based Medicine: Vitamin D shows no efficacy against moderate to severe COVID-19 infections: A new trial evaluates the efficacy of a massive vitamin D dose in patients with moderate to severe COVID-19 infections. The post  first appeared on Science-Based Medicine . → https://is.gd/VIAojz14:07
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: 'Needle in a haystack': The hunt for coronavirus drug compounds in a Belgian biosafety lab: Professor Johan Neyts, a virologist at the Rega Institute for Medical Research at KU Leuven in Belgium, leads a team searching for drugs that can help us in the fight against COVID-19. His laboratory is part of two projects that are [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/8tna8714:17
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Putin says Russia vaccinated two million against virus: President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that Russia had vaccinated more than two million people with its two-dose Sputnik V vaccine, while another two million had received their first dose. → https://is.gd/idnTxK15:09
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Pharma: STAT+: Pharmalittle: Novartis to help make CureVac Covid-19 vaccine; U.K. to speed vaccine approvals for Covid-19 variants → https://is.gd/sz7Dwm15:41
BrainstormUpdates for Kuwait: +1716 cases (now 196497), +8 deaths (now 1105) since 20 hours ago — Germany: +9651 cases (now 2.5 million) since 21 hours ago — Switzerland: +1223 cases (now 561068), +5 deaths (now 10019) since 13 hours ago15:55
BrainstormNew from NPR: Data Show India's Homegrown COVID-19 Vaccine Works — 2 Months After It Was Approved: India's homegrown COVID-19 vaccine has been controversial because the Indian government approved its use before clinical trials showed it works. Now data is finally out. → https://is.gd/ubhxtQ16:02
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: She barely survived a severe form of COVID-19 hitting kids: Like many people this past year, teenager Tyona Montgomery began experiencing a sore throat and a loss of sense of smell and taste in November that suggested she might have COVID-19. → https://is.gd/HfzMOM16:14
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: COVID death rates 10 times higher in countries where most are overweight: report: In a finding that suggests overweight people should be prioritized for COVID-19 vaccines, a new report released Thursday shows the risk of death from coronavirus infection is about 10 times higher in countries where most of the population is overweight. → https://is.gd/S9N5hr16:24
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Behavioral health issues remain high as pandemic continues: Self-reported symptoms of behavioral health issues remain high as the COVID-19 pandemic continues, according to a research letter published online Feb. 19 in JAMA Network Open. → https://is.gd/aw9UMi16:35
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: EU to vaccinate 'all who need' by end of summer: official: The European Union's coronavirus vaccination campaign should be able to inoculate "all those who need" by the end of summer or perhaps sooner, an EU official pledged on Thursday. → https://is.gd/xHXXxb16:46
rmonten[m]I'm reading that Italy & the EU are blocking export of 250,000 jabs of AstraZeneca vaccine now. Thoughts?17:01
darsieget mRNA17:01
rmonten[m]a source https://news.yahoo.com/italy-blocks-export-astrazeneca-vaccine-151150882.html17:05
BrainstormNew from EMA: What's new: PIP: Opinion/decision on a Paediatric investigation plan (PIP): Monovalent, recombinant, replication-incompetent human adenovirus serotype 26-vectored vaccine encoding the pre-fusion conformation-stabilised F protein derived from the RSV A2 strain, decision type: , therapeutic area: , PIP number: P/0197/2020 → https://is.gd/faNDZF17:07
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): Thursday 04 March 2021 Update: submitted by /u/HippolasCage to r/CoronavirusUK → https://is.gd/rrd6Mf17:19
LjLdarsie: it's not like people can generally decide what they get17:22
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Colloquio telefonico Draghi - Johnson ( http://www.governo.it/it/articolo/colloquio-telefonico-draghi-johnson/16352 )17:22
LjLrmonten[m]: my thought is I'm a bit surprised I didn't hear of this locally (but maybe I haven't paid attention), and also that given the almost complete dryup AZ has been giving us lately, and that the contract included vaccines made in the UK but we never got any of those, I'm sorry but personally, selfish mode kicks in and I'm glad if they fight to give us vaccines, which is still less than contracted for, it's not like we're asking for the moon. Maybe17:25
LjLAustralia can get some vaccines from their good Commonwealth pal.17:25
rmonten[m]Yeah I understand your reaction. Don't you think it's going to do more harm than good, though?17:29
BrainstormNew from WHO Euro: Republic of Moldova prepares for COVID-19 vaccine deployment: An unprecedented readiness drill was conducted in the Republic of Moldova in preparation for the arrival of the first shipment of COVID-19 vaccines. The drill was organized by the national health authorities with support from WHO, in anticipation of the country’s first [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/100SYJ17:30
de-facto.title https://www.uk-cpi.com/news/cpi-receives-5million-investment-from-uk-government-to-develop-library-of-mrna-vaccines-to-help-fight-new-covid-19-variants <-- thats a pretty cool idea :)17:31
Brainstormde-facto: From www.uk-cpi.com: CPI receives £5million investment from UK Government to develop… | CPI17:31
de-factoi think EU should allow for exports, even if it means we have less vaccines ready here then17:37
de-factoofc i also would like to get a vaccination as soon as possible, but i am not the only one hence i have to patiently wait17:37
de-factoi think EU should prioritize on ramping up vaccine production rates while at the same time distribute them according to the contracts on a best effort basis, including sharing with exports17:39
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: We will vaccinate Syria for humanity, like we did for others: India tells UN while the world is busy bombing Syria → https://is.gd/a1N13r17:40
de-factoonce the contract rates are saturated production rates should be increased even further in order to be able to contribute more to COVAX projetc17:40
BrainstormUpdates for Netherlands: +4421 cases (now 1.1 million), +38 deaths (now 15761) since 17 hours ago — United Kingdom: +6449 cases (now 4.2 million), +463 deaths (now 123942) since 20 hours ago17:41
de-factoi also think that other industrial states should do the same, namely UK, USA and Australia probably also will have their own production sooner or latr17:41
de-factoIndia will be a HUGE producer of the viral vector vaccines, afaik state serum institute is the biggest such production capacity in the world17:43
CoronaBot/r/coronavirus: Fauci calls loosening Covid-19 restrictions inexplicable as variants threaten another surge (10369 votes) | https://m.omaha.com/lifestyles/health-med-fit/fauci-calls-loosening-covid-19-restrictions-inexplicable-as-variants-threaten-another-surge/article_1b71e973-0de1-5d86-bcf6-a97de3f3a078.html | https://redd.it/lxix7s17:45
BrainstormNew from Derek Lowe: @Dereklowe: Waiting on the efficacy data for molnupiravir, the last best hope for a small-molecule coronavirus drug: https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/03/04/molnupiravir-last-of-the-small-molecule-coronavirus-hopeshttps://is.gd/ZeSram17:51
CoronaBot/r/covid19: EMA starts rolling review of the Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine (80 votes) | https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/ema-starts-rolling-review-sputnik-v-covid-19-vaccine | https://redd.it/lxha2c17:58
de-factoi read more about it, actually the export of the 1M/4 ADZ-1222 doses was rejected because AstraZeneca does not comply with the delivery contracts it has with the EU so its understandable that they are not allowed to export then18:04
de-factobut i still think it should be allowed, to our disadvantage though18:04
ArsaneritHow are small countries that aren't part of a big trade block going to get vaccines if US and EU block exports?18:10
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Italy 'blocks' AstraZeneca vaccine shipment to Australia → https://is.gd/mRfNYX18:13
de-facto.title https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVAX <-- Arsanerit18:15
Brainstormde-facto: From en.wikipedia.org: COVAX - Wikipedia18:15
Arsaneritde-facto: Wasn't that mostly for poor countries?18:17
ArsaneritI don't mean countries that are too poor.  I mean countries with plenty of money, that just happens to not have domestic production.  But apparently that is not a problem; where the vaccines Israel buys produced?  Clearly some countries ARE exporting.18:18
BrainstormUpdates for Moldova: +1800 cases (now 191197), +23 deaths (now 4049) since a day ago — Isle of Man: +35 cases (now 546) since a day ago — Canada: +2515 cases (now 878246), +50 deaths (now 22122) since 17 hours ago — Italy: +339 deaths (now 98974) since 22 hours ago18:18
de-factoArsanerit, yes id assume from EU because US does not export them, so if Israel bought them from Pfizer they probably were produces in EU then18:21
de-factoi mean obviously the rich countries dont really have such a big problem with deliveries, they just pay double the price and get their shots first... which is not so nice actually, imho doses should be distributed according to contracts and be distributed as fair as possible18:23
de-factohttps://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations18:23
ArsaneritWhere does Canada get its vaccines?18:23
de-facto.title18:23
Brainstormde-facto: From ourworldindata.org: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations - Statistics and Research - Our World in Data18:23
de-factoidk probably also EU since US would not share with them according to a press release18:23
de-factowas linked here earlier18:24
de-facto.title https://www.cp24.com/news/white-house-says-no-to-sharing-vaccines-with-canada-and-mexico-1.532928918:24
ArsaneritSo essentially the limited EU production facilities are for the entire world because UK & US aren't exporting and not everybody trusts vaccines from Russia and China (yet), no wonder the EU has less vaccines for itself than UK or US.18:24
Brainstormde-facto: From www.cp24.com: White House says 'no' to sharing coronavirus vaccines with Canada and Mexico | CP24.com18:24
LjLrmonten[m]: look, other EU countries are now ordering Sputink and potentially the Chiese vaccines on their own despite the EU agreements, I'd say understandably at this point since they just aren't delivering; the UK thanks to being outside the EU has already vaccinated more than 20 million people when Italy has vaccinated like I dunno, 2 million at best; the US never exported vaccines in the first place; what will happen if we control exports? That India18:25
LjLwon't export to us later? Well India itself has already announced export restrictions. In Italian we say "do we have 'fool' written on our forehead?"18:25
de-factowell Russia is in the process of getting approval and China also got some18:25
de-facto.title  https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/ema-starts-rolling-review-sputnik-v-covid-19-vaccine18:25
Brainstormde-facto: From www.ema.europa.eu: EMA starts rolling review of the Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine | European Medicines Agency18:25
ArsaneritSeems like Canada vaccination is going quite slowly.18:25
ArsaneritAccording to ourworldindata almost 8% in EU has had one shot, in Canada 5.4%18:27
rmonten[m]de-facto: yes absolutely everything should be done to increase production asap. I'm not sure how much that's already the case, it definitely doesn't seem like a "war effort" in the EU though.18:27
Arsaneritde-facto: Yes, but they haven't pre-ordered like they did for the vaccines from "friendly" countries, or have they?18:27
rmonten[m]AZ not complying with their contract can be dealt with in other ways, just reducing their pay or so18:29
de-factoto be honest i dont know the exact contract conditions and dates, my standpoint is just that is should be as fair as possible and a global approach, hence with exports18:29
de-factoimho its not good that UK and US dont share their production cap, we need them18:29
de-factoafaik they have been paid upfront or such18:30
de-factoand iirc AZ would not make profit on their shots18:30
rmonten[m]LjL: I agree it's frustrating. IMHO the EU should have never accepted that the US doesn't export. But of course who's going to challenge the US diplomatically...18:31
de-factomoney is not the limiting factor here, production capacity is, and maybe investment risk (now we need production cap, but do they also sell as much doses in 5 years?)18:32
ArsaneritUK aren't exporting either?18:32
de-factoimho then states should pay that investment risk, nothing should stand in the way of them ramping up production rates18:32
de-factoi think UK does not export18:32
de-factoneither does US18:32
de-factoonly in homeopathic doses if at all18:32
ArsaneritThey should have done that last summer, to step in with production.18:32
ArsaneritWell, then it's obvious why the EU has less doses per capita than UK or US, EU is less egoistic.18:33
de-factoyes thats probably one reason18:33
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Covid-19: Another new variant added to UK watch list: It shares a worrying mutation with the South Africa and Brazil variants of concern. → https://is.gd/lg6Af718:35
rmonten[m]Ok I guess it's less bad to only block the vaccine export from companies that can't deliver what they promised...18:39
calbasi_matrixMaybe the 3th World should be vaccined when Cuban vaccine get aprobed18:40
calbasi_matrix:-)18:40
calbasi_matrixI wonder which countries are more givers on COVAX18:40
de-factoCOVAX-AMC donors (million dollars) United States: 2,500, Germany: 1,093, United Kingdom: 735,  European Union: 489, Japan: 200, Canada: 181, ...18:45
de-factofrom the wiki article18:45
BrainstormNew from NPR: Empty Desks At U.N. Represent Millions Of Children Who Have Missed School In Pandemic: The 168 school desks make up an exhibit called "Pandemic Classroom." Each of the seats represents 1 million children living in countries where schools have been closed for almost a year. → https://is.gd/zTCkvB18:45
LjLrmonten[m]: reducing pay... that's exactly why according to Politico, the EU contract was written stupidly, because that's pretty much the only option. But if you actually do the math the cost of vaccines (especially AZ which is cheap) I'd peanuts compared to the economy of the EU, and also to its economic losses... I don't care about saving that money, I want vaccines18:52
LjL"Oh we don't get vaccinated but at least we don't pay for them" is not much of a comfort18:53
de-factoi think the vaccines should be prioritized by contracts weighted by current incidence18:55
LjLBtw I doubt it was solely Italy's decision... Italy just happens to have the "last step" in the AZ production chain18:56
LjLIf the Commission approved it and said nothing it's because they... well approved it18:56
rmonten[m]Yes it's pretty unforgivable that the contracts seem to have been written by amateurs...19:01
de-factothey prioritized on things like the company being liable for their vaccines and for the newer ones that the vaccines are effective against current variants afaik19:05
de-factoat least i have heard that (have not read the contracts)19:05
BrainstormUpdates for Botswana: +1019 cases (now 31746), +27 deaths (now 359) since 2 days ago19:08
de-factowhile Israel did prioritize on getting early doses paying more than twice as much and also not holding companies liable19:14
rmonten[m]That's good, but I don't see why it should be a trade-off between those elements and enforcing timely deliveries.19:14
de-factopart of their contract with Pfizer was that Israel provides data from their healthcare system for studies and feedback19:14
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Two hundred nine US counties face a crisis in staffing ICUs that care for COVID-19 patients: Over the next month, 209 U.S. counties in the United States will need to implement crisis workforce strategies to deal with potentially dangerous shortfalls of intensive care unit doctors, according to a new analysis published today. [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/GUoZrR19:17
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Comunicato stampa del Consiglio dei Ministri n. 5 ( http://www.governo.it/it/articolo/comunicato-stampa-del-consiglio-dei-ministri-n-5/16353 )19:17
de-facto56.1% of citizens in Israel received at least one dose19:23
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Brazil’s COVID crisis is a warning to the whole world, scientists say → https://is.gd/86cW7619:27
BrainstormNew from Virological.org: Latest posts: Emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in Brazil:  Authors: Filipe Romero Rebello Moreira 1, Diego Menezes Bonfim 2, Danielle Alves Gomes Zauli 3, Joice do Prado Silva 3, Aline Brito de Lima 3, Frederico Scott Varella Malta 3, Alessandro Clayton de Souza Ferreira 3, Victor Cavalcanti Pardini 3, Daniel [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/nq3yV419:48
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: A new strategy for pooling COVID-19 tests to detect outbreaks early: Researchers have proposed a new quantitative strategy for pooling COVID-19 tests in order to monitor spread and detect outbreaks early within closed communities, such as nursing homes or universities. Vincent Brault of Université Grenoble Alpes in Grenoble, [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/XEN8cq20:09
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Popcorn-on-demand: Belgian cinema chain gets creative amid pandemic → https://is.gd/U1sxah20:20
LjL"new" strategy20:21
LjLChina did it months ago, but okay20:22
LjL(and on a city-wide scale)20:22
LjLsee what i say when i get flippant about us being too arrogant to even try to learn anything from China?20:22
de-factounfortunately you got a point there20:23
LjLthe secretary of Italy's Democratic Party has just resigned. so i guess we're not done with the political mess yet20:29
BrainstormNew from Shane Crotty: @profshanecrotty: R to @profshanecrotty: (Also, I am completely skipping over the fact that you have to get a CD4 T cell response to generate good neutralizing antibodies, which is a major focus of my lab. Vaccines have to elicit those T cells to get good antibodies. But, not the central topic for this thread.) → https://is.gd/fob0yV20:40
LjLtsunami warning for New Zealand and a bunch of Pacific coasts https://tsunami.gov/events/PHEB/2021/03/04/21063003/1/WEPA40/WEPA40.txt  https://tsunami.gov/20:47
BrainstormNew from Emma Hodcroft: @firefoxx66: R to @firefoxx66: Finally, in the S:E484 build, we can see the cluster that makes up what has been called the 'New York variant', which carries the E484K mutation.7/7https://nextstrain.org/groups/neherlab/ncov/S.E484?branchLabel=aa&c=division&label=mlabel:20C/C25517T&p=gridhttps://is.gd/Nmc3ez20:51
de-factowow is that big?20:57
de-facto"MAGNITUDE      8.0" sounds gigantic?!20:58
de-factohmm20:58
LjLde-facto, it's pretty big, but nobody lives at the epicenter, it's in the ocean. what sort of tsunami will develop is not something i can predict, the next tsunami.gov updates should have predicted wave heights21:00
LjLthey may have felt the earthquake in new zealand, though (they felt an earlier 7.4 one today which came with a mini-tsunami)21:01
LjLno one felt it probably https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000dflf/executive21:03
LjL* TSUNAMI WAVES REACHING 1 TO 3 METERS ABOVE THE TIDE LEVEL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG SOME COASTS OF FRENCH POLYNESIA.21:05
LjL* TSUNAMI WAVES REACHING MORE THAN 3 METERS ABOVE THE TIDE LEVEL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG SOME COASTS OF KERMADEC ISLANDS.21:05
BrainstormNew from Shane Crotty: @profshanecrotty: R to @profshanecrotty: (i) we get enough people vaccinated to blunt a B117 surge in coming months (hi Texas, get it together), (ii) current vaccines work well enough against more challenging VOCs in the interim, and (iii) a booster vaccine is likely to be quite successful against B1351-like variants → https://is.gd/6wuobz21:12
BrainstormUpdates for France: +33726 cases (now 3.8 million), +246 deaths (now 87788) since 18 hours ago — Germany: +10661 cases (now 2.5 million) since 23 hours ago — Spain: +254 deaths (now 70501) since a day ago — Canada: +2650 cases (now 878381) since 20 hours ago21:13
de-factothe question is how the gradient of the sea ground height will accumulate the water volume above it hence how much it will increase in height when approaching a coastline21:18
BrainstormNew from WebMD: Moderna COVID Vaccine May Trigger Skin Reactions: Some people given the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine may develop a reaction at the injection site that can first appear more than a week after they get the shot, research shows. → https://is.gd/SQBKLz21:33
BrainstormNew from WebMD: As Vaccines Roll Out, Will Risky Behavior Increase?: Once people are vaccinated,  they might head indoors to restaurants or travel, despite the fact that much is still unknown about how variants of the coronavirus might change the course of the pandemic, or even whether a vaccinated person can still transmit the virus. → https://is.gd/Qo8bvb22:36
BrainstormUpdates for Switzerland: +7 deaths (now 10021) since 20 hours ago22:41
BrainstormNew from Politico: France mulls digital COVID pass for public venues: Prime Minister Jean Castex says France might start lifting COVID-19 restrictions next month. → https://is.gd/Dca2Tm22:46
CoronaBot/r/covid19: Effect of Ivermectin on Time to Resolution of Symptoms Among Adults With Mild COVID-19 A Randomized Clinical Trial (82 votes) | https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2777389?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=content-shareicons&utm_content=article_engagement&utm_medium=social&utm_term=030421#.YEENJMwggDY.twitter | https://redd.it/lxr7la22:53
LjLde-facto, lol, our "friends" who sometimes come here made the news https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/29762623:07
LjLde-facto, but more seriously and perhaps more annoyingly, https://www.politico.eu/article/france-mulls-digital-covid-pass-for-public-venues/ sigh23:11
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: People flee to higher ground, boats rush to shore after New Zealand says tsunami evacuation order ‘overrides Covid alert’ → https://is.gd/6wa7WK23:28
BrainstormNew from ScienceNews: Most pro athletes who got COVID-19 didn’t develop heart inflammation: Few professional athletes developed heart inflammation after a bout of COVID-19, but how the findings relate to the general public isn’t clear. → https://is.gd/xl3Ve223:39
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Listen: Peace among the pharma giants, the next phase of the pandemic, & a little Covid-19 optimism: Can pharma get along post-pandemic? How will we know when the Covid-19 crisis is over? And is it OK to feel optimistic? All that and more on the latest episode… → https://is.gd/0IhbtF23:49

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