libera/##covid-19/ Wednesday, 2021-03-24

kreyrenis astra-zeneca safe?00:35
rpifancomputer says probably00:38
kreyren<rpifan "computer says probably"> what does credible research say00:48
rpifanidk ask the computer00:48
kreyrenlocal media from slovakia were reporting a death of a teacher who took astra-zeneca.. seems to be unrelated to the vaccine though00:48
kreyrenand there seems to be a concern related to creation of blood cloths00:49
LjLClots, blood cloths would be very tacky but nonfatal00:52
kreyren*clots! x.x00:52
LjLYes I think it's very likely those strange and freaky blood clotting events are in fact related to astrazeneca and should be investigated seriously00:53
kreyrenwhat makes you think that? Also i would think that this would be the first thing investigated if it was astra-zenace related?00:53
LjLAt the same time though, to borrow someone else's point about this, you're probably more likely to die in a car accident on your way to the vaccine center than to have one of those events00:53
LjLIt is, it was00:54
LjLWe've been talking about this for the last several days nonstop00:54
kreyrenmy car has a roll cage and i have training to dodge like a ninja, but in car.. can't do that with vaccine00:54
LjLWhat makes me think it is that a group of German researchers concluded it is caused by AZ causing some people's body to generate an antibody that ends up causing this issue... And then, Norwegian researchers independently came to the same conclusion00:55
kreyren<LjL "It is, it was"> any credible reference to the investigation then? i can't find any00:55
LjLAnd science was done00:55
LjLNot while I'm on the couch and tapping on the phone00:55
LjLOnly if you pay me to get up from the couch00:55
kreyrenpay how00:56
* kreyren smells an opportunity to get monero working00:56
LjLAnyway the EMA just said it's worthy of investigation but they still maintain there is no proof of a link00:56
LjLBut agencies like the EMA are kinda slow and bureaucratic00:56
kreyrenhttps://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/mar/22/astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-79-effective-with-no-increased-blood-clot-risk-us-trial00:57
LjLThe papers from these researchers have not been published yet but let me get up from the couch (sigh) and find the couple of articles that were somewhat detailed on this00:57
kreyrenhttps://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-benefits-still-outweigh-risks-despite-possible-link-rare-blood-clots00:57
LjLkreyren: I don't give a damn about the US trial whose press release was, incidentally, immediately objected to by US monitoring bodies00:57
kreyrenLjL:  thank you all mighty for getting off from your couch so that i can make a paper for a doctor and get vaccinated yaaay00:58
LjLAlso these clotting events happen to, as de-facto estimated, one person out of 250000, roughly00:58
LjLSo since the US trial had like 23000 people in it, you wouldn't even expect it00:58
kreyrenwell i am a very lucky person00:58
LjLI'm just saying the study didn't have enough people to rule this out00:59
kreyrenalso US likes to cherrypick people from my experience x.x00:59
kreyren<LjL "I'm just saying the study didn't"> noted00:59
LjLI'm sure you can make your own risk estimates for yourself but what in trying to get across is that while these events are strange and serious, they are so rare they don't change your overall risk of getting blood clots01:00
LjLIn fact people who got Pfizer and Moderna had higher overall risk of clotting and pulmonary embolism based on... a graph from Twitter01:00
LjLBut the AZ issue may be of concern in particular for younger women who take the pill01:01
kreyreni am more scared about the reported death from slovakia in relation to AZ tbh01:01
kreyrenbut then internet is full of these https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/slovak-broadcaster-criticised-for-allegedly-false-astrazeneca-vaccine-claims/01:01
kreyrenso i guess01:01
kreyrenx.x01:01
kreyreni don't find the source credible though01:01
LjLthe internet is full of everything though01:02
kreyrenye01:02
kreyrenx.x01:02
LjLalso, i don't know about the event in Slovakia, but why would that make you "more scared"?01:02
LjLjust because it's in Slovakia?01:02
LjLthe deaths in Germany and Norway are less scary?01:02
LjLthe vaccine is the same01:02
* kreyren waits for the opporunity to open-source the bill gates micro chip that are allegedly packet with pfyzer 01:02
kreyren<LjL "the deaths in Germany and Norway"> there are deaths related to AZ vaccination?01:02
LjL...01:02
kreyrenlike i only knew about slovakia x.x01:03
LjLwhat do you think blood clotting, especially of a severe and devastating kind, tends to cause01:03
de-factoupdated statement from Andreas Greinacher (University clinic Greifswald) https://gth-online.org/ https://gth-online.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/GTH_Stellungnahme_AstraZeneca_engl._3_22_2021.pdf01:03
kreyrenheart attack is first thing that comes to mind01:03
kreyrenstroke second01:03
LjLyes, good guesses!01:03
LjLthey have one thing in common: probable death01:03
kreyrenminor annoyance with my hand feeling numb and me taking that as major panic01:04
kreyren<LjL "they have one thing in common: p"> ye x.x01:04
LjLbut guess what else causes a lot more death?01:04
kreyrenkiller bunnies01:04
LjLthose, and COVID01:04
kreyrenthey wear red hats and are everywhere while complaining abotu coffee and IBM01:04
kreyrencovid can't kill me if i am in self-isolation since 11/201901:05
LjLde-facto, hahaha i missed this, seeing it now while looking for articles for kreyren:01:05
de-factostill there should be put emphasis on that there is a huge media hype about something that seems to occur very rarely (e.g. 1 in 100k-200k) and if they discovered now the mechanism to diagnose those very rare adverse events and understood the mechanism behind it they can treat for the cause and not for the symptoms01:05
LjL<Brainstorm> New from Derek Lowe: @Dereklowe: I've updated yesterday's AZ vaccine data post with comment on the bizarre developments since then. The company's PR on this has either been (1) very stupid or (2) extremely stupid, and they're doing a great deal of harm by being this incompetent:https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/03/22/astrazenecas-us-vaccine-trial-datahttps://is.gd/6ULNuy01:05
LjLLowe is getting irritated01:05
LjLde-facto, if i were the media i'd cover something that caused 20 countries to halt the vaccine01:06
LjLas someone *from* the media said on TV here, "sure, the media are always bad, but look, we didn't suspend the vaccine"01:06
kreyrende-facto_: so you think that it's sane to get AZ and meds for blood clots ?01:07
LjLkreyren, this article doesn't have (iirc) the recent research into it by scientists in Germany and Norway, but i'd recommend you read this one first to get a comprehensive idea of what's going on with this incident: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/03/it-s-very-special-picture-why-vaccine-safety-experts-put-brakes-astrazeneca-s-covid-1901:07
LjLno01:07
LjLit's blood clotting of an unusual kind01:07
LjLand you shouldn't take blood clot meds that weren't prescribed to you01:07
kreyren<LjL "it's blood clotting of an unusua"> any relation to these observer in post-covid patients?01:07
de-factoimho the regulatory agencies did their job very well, they first stopped and investigated, then when having an estimate for the risk and compared it to the benefits resumed the vaccination campaign01:07
LjLkreyren, not that i know of01:08
kreyrendo you have the research paper from the germany and those norweigians?01:08
LjLi don't agree with de-facto there but i guess the server punished him enough01:08
kreyrenheh01:08
LjLkreyren, not yet, it's at grepping distance, but please read the article i linked first. if you didn't even *know* there were deaths in other countries, it makes no sense for you to read this research without knowing about the situation01:09
LjLi hate myself01:10
kreyrencan you be more specific in relation to the situation? Like defacto said that the investigators did a good job that the risks in relation to benefits are worth it in relation to herd immunity?01:10
LjLi've had a text file open for days to paste things related to the AZ events into, and i don't have these articles in it01:11
kreyrenin relation to the investigators.. kinda feels like someone who doesn't care about me saying "get it! you might die but it's for the good of everyone else!"01:11
LjLkreyren, what is there to say about that? i already told you that the risk is something like 1 in 250000, or 1 in 100k-200k like de-facto said. it's pretty obvious that the risk from COVID is much higher than that in most countries01:11
kreyrenah isee01:11
LjLthat doesn't mean that the EMA thoroughly investigated it. they made almost the *exact same* statements in their "everyone can resume AZ!" press release as in their prior press releases about the matter01:12
kreyrenmakes more sense then01:12
LjLi.e. they kept saying the benefits outweigh the risks, although a causal link couldn't be ruled out, but also hadn't been established01:12
LjLthey said that first, then major EU countries suspended the vaccine, then later they said the same thing again, and those EU countries resumed the vaccine01:12
LjLto me that's just some theater01:13
* kreyren wonders if he wants to explicitly state that he doesn't want AZ and rather wait for other vaccines 01:13
LjLbut that doesn't mean that the statement "the benefits outweigh the risks" isn't factually true, either01:13
kreyrentrue, but there is still the risk which is quite uncomfortable assuming that the risk factors are not known01:13
LjLare you a woman less than 60 year old who's taking the pill?01:14
LjLbecause those are known risk factors01:14
kreyrenyou are saying that only 60 yo woman who are taking some kind of pills are known to die from AZ vaccination ?01:14
kreyrenafaik the slovak teacher was 34 for example O.o01:15
de-factofor a given probability to get infected with SARS-CoV-2 and then among those there is a certain portion that develops severe COVID progressions, the benefit from getting vaccinated is a high probability to prevent that from happening. Comparing the benefit to prevent such severe progressions to the risk of vaccine unwanted side effects is what agencies call the benefit to risk ratio. it depends on target groups and age etc. their01:15
de-factoconclusion is that benefits outway the risk for ADZ-1222 while at the same time transparently informing about the (very rare) risks01:15
LjLkreyren, i said "less than"01:15
kreyrenthen yes no yes01:15
de-factoindividual cases never can represent a probability of a majority, there always have to be taken into account the outcome for the majority, hence representative statistics for a given target group of people01:16
LjLde-facto, all i'm saying is that conclusion was already pre-reached days before they gave the final go-ahead01:16
LjLit was an easily reachable conclusion from the numbers01:16
LjLthey didn't investigate a thing01:16
kreyrenunless being called femboy too many times is relavant to the woman risk factor01:16
LjLthose researchers from germany and norway, that can be called people investigating these events01:16
LjLthe EMA stamping paper is not01:16
LjLkreyren, i would say not01:16
de-factoLjL, they investigated the possible maximum risk for the data they got there, probably carefully looking if they had overlooked any symptoms that might also be in the given category of side effects01:17
kreyrennoted the EMA credibility01:17
LjLkreyren, it's not even a matter of credibility imo, it's just the kind of thing they do, they are a bureaucratic supergovernmental agency01:17
kreyreni see O.o01:18
de-factothen they concluded for those given maximum number of cases the probability of getting such side effects and compared those to the given benefit known from their approval phase 3 trials01:18
* kreyren is still not sure whether to risk AZ as he would get it faster01:18
LjLkreyren, will you read the sciencemag article before going all omg about this? it states a few facts in a neutral manner01:18
* kreyren is also concerned about long-term effects01:18
LjLmeanwhile i can search for this damn article01:18
kreyreni did but it didn't make me less scared about the process01:18
de-factothey did not intend to investigate the clinical mechanism behind it, because they knew this would take some time, and as seen by now it is investigated and they already have quite a good idea what it is and how to diagnose and treat it01:18
LjLi've found a few articles in the logs that talk about the german research but i just don't know which one is the one i read01:19
kreyrende-facto_: so you say that the negative effects of AZ can be treated in safe matter when observed?01:19
de-factoreally we should never forget that we are talking about a MINUTE minority of cases01:19
kreyreni am aware, but why should i be less concerned about that01:20
LjLkreyren, you can only get less scared when you wipe the statistical irrationality from your brain. these events are there. i'm somewhat irked at how they've been handled. i do not love AZ in general because i think the company has shown they are good at messing things up. *at the same time*, the risk from these events is extremely low. these feelings aren't in contradiction.01:20
LjLkreyren, why? because you take less minute risks every single day01:20
LjLwithout being nearly as concerned as you are sounding now01:20
LjLslip in the shower or bathtub, hit your head, die01:20
LjLor be in a coma for months01:20
kreyren<LjL "Krey, why? because you take less"> yes i wear a body armor for example.. it's comfy01:21
LjLdomestic incidents have gone way up since COVID01:21
kreyreni like the failure to fail in a safe matter e.g. flying a glider with a parachute in case wing rips off01:21
kreyrenso that the worst case scenario is not fatal01:21
LjLkreyren, i told you earlier that (even though it's just a graph, i'm not sure the source) people who got Pfizer and Moderna actually had higher likelihood of developing blood clots01:23
LjLwe seem to have established that blood clots can easily lead to death01:23
kreyrenaaaaa01:23
LjLso, presumably, some of those people have died01:23
LjLso why exactly does AZ worry you more here?01:23
kreyreni wasn't aware there being any credible deaths related to Pfizer and moderna x.x01:23
de-factokreyren, i am saying that it seems they claim to have found the causative mechanism (it has to be reviewed by other experts though) and that they claim to have a diagnostic for it (both screening and detailed test) and claim to have understood the mechanism behind it (and claim to have a medication that immediately blocks the mechanism), yet that addresses the Thrombocytopenia treating Cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) is a01:24
de-factoquestion to a neurologist01:24
LjLwhat de-facto just said is roughly what those two teams (german and norwegian) claim to have determined01:24
LjLso even if i find the damn article i'm not sure how that helps you01:24
kreyrenwhy none asked a neurologist then01:24
LjLwhat the hell question is that01:25
LjLof course neurologists have been "asked"01:25
kreyreni understood that the CVST is a thing to be investigated no?01:25
kreyrenfrom what de-facto said at least01:25
LjLwhy it happens is to be investigated, mainly01:25
izyou have to think of it as percentage of deaths out of total administered, not just ah ha! there were a few cases!01:26
kreyrenso why is that supposed to make me less scary about taking the vaccine if it's not fully investigated yet in relation to CVST01:26
kreyreniz: i don't care about others i care about myself! x.x ofc that official would make a decision for everyone to take the vaccine even if few people died from it01:26
LjLkreyren, i don't think anyone here has the specific goal of making you less scared01:27
izit's like how you are more likely to die in a car crash, but ppl are always more afraid of dying in a plane crash01:27
LjLwe're stating things that are known or things we understand/believe01:27
kreyreni know01:27
LjLif you decide to stay scared even though the risk is virtually none, you should ask a psychologist about that01:27
de-factoi mean how to treat CVST its the expertise of a neurologist (clinical treatment of that problem), those who published that paper are hematologists (actually experts about exactly this immuno-induced 'mimic' HIT)01:27
kreyrenjust trying to express my point of view assuming that i am asking this when i have the opportunity to get AZ like tomorrow01:27
LjLde-facto, wait which paper, is the german one published?01:28
de-factoLjL, huh?01:28
LjLde-facto, i though both teams were still working on the papers and we only had preliminary news01:28
izkreyren: with safety of an injection, you have to think of it in terms of percentage of total administered01:28
de-factono nothing published from him about it yet, they are working on getting it published in a peer reviewed journal01:28
izjust by virtue of so many ppl having had it w/out a bad reaction is the evidence that it's safe01:28
LjLkreyren, besides some obvious comparisons like "you risked more by coming here (to get hit by a car, etc) than you will by taking this vaccine" i don't know what to tell you01:29
LjLif you decide to be scared irrationally, rationality can't fix that01:29
izthe numbers of ppl taking it is huge01:29
LjLirrational fear is definitely a thing, and a thing that i respect, because everyone experiences it01:29
kreyrenLjL: what makes you think it's irrational? Seems quite rational in relation to reported info01:30
LjLbut do i have a magic wand to make it go away? no, and certainly not by linking to articles that detail just in what particular way your brain explodes with blood01:30
LjLno, it seems quite irrational, and there's three of us repeatedly telling you reasons why01:30
* LjL gives up01:30
izit's irrational because you have to think of it as a percentage of total, not just cherry pick a few cases out of billions01:30
izit's irrational like being more afraid of dying in a plane crash than dying in a car crash01:31
kreyrenfair point x.x are there any info on those who died from the vaccination? Would like to brainstorm the cases01:31
* kreyren is from family of doctors with various expertise that would make him comfier to take the vaccine01:31
izask your family about it then and they will tell you about the percentage of total thing01:32
izthat's how safety is measured01:32
de-factoi mainly posted those links to show that they made progress in understanding it, hence they would do the right things in the very rare cases this could happen, for the very very vast majority this is completely irrelevant because they just are not affected by this at all01:32
kreyrenthey always complain about lack of research so i usually come in with lot of data to process to avoid that scenario01:32
izwell, you are ignoring the 99% of data showing it's safe by demostration01:33
izand focusing on the 0.001% that shows it isn't01:33
de-factoto me it increased the trust in the agencies that they were transparent and open with it and did not hold back anything01:33
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Recent Commits to links:master: Move AstraZeneca press release to relevant section ( https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/a3591f81c33cd5e77d31b69e20ef17edbed37ce9 )01:33
LjLkreyren, i don't have case-specific data. i'm not sure those have been released. one of the two articles i had in mind i got up from the couch was https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/03/21/979781065/european-scientists-zero-in-on-astrazeneca-blood-clot-link but unfortunately the more comprehensive one was the other one. anyway, this one covers mainly the Norwegian findings01:33
kreyreni am not.. rather trying my best to make sure that i am not some way unique that would make me into that 1%01:33
kreyrenLjL:  thanks01:34
LjL1%? you mean more like 0.001%01:34
kreyrenstill quite a concern.. with my kind of luck in general01:35
izi said 0.001% :b01:35
kreyreniz: my bad!01:35
de-facto1% would be crazy, it immediately would have been stopped in phase 1 trial01:36
kreyrenye x.x01:36
izyeah, the point is it's a crazy small percentage01:36
de-factosuch a vaccine would never even have reached public interest01:36
LjLkreyren, i'm really drawing a blank of what the other thing i remember hearing was, but just get what de-facto posted, https://gth-online.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/GTH_Stellungnahme_AstraZeneca_engl._3_22_2021.pdf has all the detailed info about the findings, more than a media article could convey (but mostly understandable, also)01:36
de-factoit is meant for medical professionals or scientists though, so dont let it scare you, its just showing how much we know about this already01:37
LjLi think he's already pretty scared and i'm not really sure what he's wanting to hear that would make the fear go away01:38
* kreyren likes research papers01:38
LjLi can think only "no one died, it never happened, it was all a misunderstanding"01:38
LjLwhich would be a lie01:38
kreyrenLjL: well ideally the research papers with findings so that i can make my own conclusion01:38
kreyrenthe GHT is a step the right direction01:38
LjLkreyren, well the papers aren't out yet, from either team, but this is the closest you get for now from the german team01:38
kreyren*GTH01:38
de-factono i think its important to be open with such information, but at the same time putting it into relation01:38
kreyrenlike if i knew that these concerns weren't observed in Czech citizens in 18~28 years old then i would be more calmer01:39
kreyrenwhich assumes for some environmental influence01:40
LjLit assumes for a lot01:40
kreyrenelse any 18~28 years old reports in relation to the fatal scenario also helps01:40
LjLwell there were people in that age range iirc01:40
LjLthey were probably female though01:40
kreyrenare female being more likely to die from blood clots in general?01:40
kreyren(not to my knowledge at least)01:41
LjLhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cerebral_venous_sinus_thrombosis : Cerebral venous sinus thrombosis is rare, with an estimated 3-4 cases per million annual incidence in adults. While it may occur in all age groups, it is most common in the third decade. 75% are female.[4] Given that older studies show no difference in incidence between men and women, it has been suggested that the use of oral contraceptives in women is behind the disparity between the01:41
LjLsexes.[2]01:41
LjLthis is in general for CVST, but in the cases observed with AZ in particular, it was also 6 females vs 1 male in Germany01:41
LjL(not sure about Norway or elsewhere)01:41
kreyrenwere they smokers?01:41
LjLdunno01:41
kreyreni guess smokers woudn't be relavant to thing happening in a brain01:42
kreyrenmaybe drug users or something?01:42
kreyrenwell unless necotine is relevant01:42
kreyren*nicotine01:43
LjLthey didn't release specifics of the individual cases, or if they did, i didn't get the memo01:43
kreyrenmeaning like things that shrink the blood veins to increase the risk of these?01:43
de-factoi thought in .cz there is one of the highest number of COVID deaths per capita, so probably the benefit in .cz from vaccinations protecting against fatal outcomes is thereby even higher than in other places (just because of the higher thread from infection)01:44
LjLexcept it's probably not related to the "usual" means of thrombosis formation01:44
de-factoafaik normal thrombosis was *not* rised in the vaccination group with Astra, it was even lower than in the mRNA vaccines01:45
kreyrende-facto: for me i have passive sustainable income and i am just by myself since 11/2019 so for me it's either being by myself longer or being able to go outside on e.g. bike so the risk from covid is not that concerning to me01:45
de-factoyou dont have any human contact?01:45
kreyrennope01:46
* kreyren is aware of cabin fever, but he's also used to living alone and has contact with his pets and with people on the internet01:47
de-factoi wish i could have no human contact, yet i have to in my everyday life01:47
kreyrentbh i just moved in 01/2020 when i saw the situation getting worse01:48
kreyrenand changed school so that i can study remotely01:48
de-factoidk i think i would take any of the currently approved vaccines if offered (yet i cant get any here unfortunately)01:48
de-factoi really wish i could get one because i hate being worried about getting infected or infecting others01:49
LjLkreyren, if you never have any contacts at all, then paradoxically i think your time of higher risk of getting COVID would be when you go to get a vaccine. if i were worried about anything, it'd be that, not the extremely rare brain thrombosis01:49
de-factohavent visited my parents since 2019 for example01:49
kreyreni have pre-existing condition and CZ gov since today is accepting registrations for this group01:49
de-factobasically havent left a radius of 10km around my location here since new years 202001:49
LjLkreyren, and you know they'd give you AZ?01:50
LjLmy sister got Pfizer when they hard she had a condition01:50
LjL(not because of risks, i think, mostly because of higher efficacy)01:50
kreyrenyes way more likely to get AZ since that's what all practical doctors have in their freezers and around01:50
LjL(but i don't really know why, it's speculation)01:50
LjLvaccinations here are in dedicated centers01:50
LjLat the time being01:50
kreyrensimilar in CZ just few dedicated hospitals have the huge freezers and ppl are mostly vaccinated with AZ from info that i was given01:51
LjLde-facto, oh by the way (i only remembered because i saw it in my browser, still trying to find the elusive whatever-i-was that i read about the german stuff, maybe i'm only imagining it and i only read the GTH document...), mefistofeles linked this study yesterday https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01292-y he finds it interesting, i personally am not sure i can pinpoint what the important finding is, but anyway it involves statistics a lot so you01:53
LjLmay enjoy01:53
de-factoif i could get a vaccine right now (without cheating) i would do it, and as soon as i can do it i will get one01:53
kreyreni had the same mindset since 2 days ago that i was informed about the risk of blood clots01:54
kreyrengot very comfortable with that mindset from statement from Dr. Fauci01:54
de-factoheck not even my over 70 year old dad can get a vaccine right now with the 3rd wave rolling over Germany01:55
de-factotbh i am quite angry about this01:55
kreyreni am also angry about EU's handling of vaccinations01:55
de-factohis risk is like 1 fatal outcome in 30 infections or such01:56
* kreyren is also concerned about long-term effects of the mRNA vaccines, but he wasn't able to find any relations to already existing vaccines with mRNA01:56
* kreyren read an article about some 90s vaccine causing long term effects in 20 years of time in people 01:57
de-factowell yeah but the very majority of effects show right in the first months after vaccination, especially now when millions and billions of doses are been given01:58
LjLwhat 90s vaccines had side effects that showed after 20 yearss?01:59
kreyrenor like i have a small barely noticable hole in my skin from a vaccine on lat. Morbilli (not sure what the name is in english).. quite annoying but woudn't mind that to be the only side effect for life-time immunity02:00
LjLthe scars are known issues with some older vaccines, but it's not like they only show up after 20 years02:00
de-factokreyren, me too :)02:00
de-factothats fine though, i dont mind02:01
* kreyren is very annoyed about it02:01
LjLi have scars from smallpox02:02
LjLi think i'd have been much better off having maybe a single small scar from being *vaccinated* from smallpox02:02
* de-facto would be very annoyed about if measles would have destroyed his immune system with long term impact02:02
LjLsorry chickenpox?02:02
LjLi confuse those in englisht02:02
LjLthe less bad one02:02
kreyrende-facto: same, but still annoyed about the hole >.>02:02
LjLkreyren, losing the smooth femboy skin?02:03
de-factolol :D02:03
kreyrenit's not visible02:03
kreyrenbut yes u.u02:03
kreyrenwell it is visible.. and the skin is actually smoother there, but it's still annoying x.x02:04
de-factoi have many scars, just because i am not careful enough, but heh i know a little story for any of them :D02:04
kreyreni have lot of scars on my hands which i don't mind~ people say that they look sexy.. then i get slapped for not being careful enough x.x02:05
kreyreni don't mind these though.. i just mind that damned hole >.>02:06
de-factoi fear there are no stats about holes for covid vaccinations yet :P i never read about such things happening though02:07
kreyrenwell i am rather concerned about it giving me an alzheimer, cancer or something alike02:07
de-factoi dont see a reason to assume that02:08
kreyreni don't see either, but i also don't see anything that would make that impossible to happen02:08
LjLi don't see plausible mechanisms for it... but sure, in strictly logical terms, we can't know what the vaccines might cause 20 years from now, without waiting 20 years02:09
kreyrenkinda annoying that we can't know that for sure.. like in computer science i can just write tests and know exactly what will happen..02:10
* kreyren wonders if he can open-source humans to achieve that02:10
LjLhalting problem02:10
kreyren<LjL "halting problem"> that's what sanitization for processes to not overload the memory, scheduler sanitization to not overwhelm the resources and fault tolerant turing complete systems are for!02:11
LjLstill, in CS, you have a formal theorem stating that for some algorithms, you just cannot know whether they'll halt02:12
LjLsure you can usually make them halt in practical situations02:12
LjLbut i can always write a program that you won't know whether it will halt. maybe we should sit here for 20 years and see02:12
kreyrentrue, but you don't care for halts because system by itself handles that scenario else malpractice bcs sysadmin didn't use checklist02:12
kreyrenbcs then if process goes above set limits it get brutaly murdered without mercy02:13
* kreyren is more concerned about NSA putting a small computers in his CPU to see what he does with things 02:15
de-factothose run on minix :)02:15
kreyrenyesh02:15
* kreyren set an event that sends an email spamming "RAPE" with oblivion-motivated quotes to NSA each time someone tries to violate him ring-002:16
LjLcursed Tanenbaum and his microkernel fetish02:16
kreyrenPOWER9 is nice though02:16
de-factoor VxWorks in case of mobile02:17
kreyrenwe should all use these! ^-^02:17
LjLby the way02:19
LjLtoday there was an (Italian) AstraZeneca representative on TV, and of course at some point he was asked about the latest debacle with their press release being disputed by US agencies02:19
LjLand he said "yeah yeah a couple of papers have said that Fauci said something bad... which he didn't even say"02:19
LjLhe downplayed it as it being nothing official02:20
LjLwhich is, of course, nonsense02:20
LjLhere's what Derek Lowe says02:20
LjL"Update: this has turned into a stupid, needless, mess. Which frankly seems to be AstraZeneca’s pandemic brand so far. It turns out that the company’s press release (as discussed below) is apparently more of an interim read than reflective of the final data. The NIH took the extraordinary step of stating its concerns about this late last night, and there’s all sorts of fallout today"02:20
de-factowhat was all the fuzz about actually (havent read into those US study stuff)?02:20
LjLthe NIH taking an "extraordinary step" isn't the same as "a couple of papers writing something"02:20
LjLde-facto, i don't really know what is being disputed. articles about it seem to assume it's the efficacy data, and iirc one went as far as saying that the agency claims it's not 79% but (iirc) 71-74%02:21
kreyreni wonder if AZ knows about that being a major issue and they just downplaying the whole thing to save their revenue or something in that manner02:21
LjLit's just ridiculous that US agencies would end up releasing a statement in the middle of the night02:21
LjLjust because AZ feel the need to lie a little in their press releases02:21
LjLisn't their reputation bad enough by now? they can stop doing this02:21
de-factolol so they are debating about if its 74% or 79%? really?02:22
LjLi don't know, i'm saying that's what some articles stated02:22
LjLall i can tell you that is official is the statement that was released02:22
LjL(which... let me find it)02:22
LjLde-facto, https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/niaid-statement-astrazeneca-vaccine02:22
LjLthis AZ fellow also said "yeah it's normal they review our data"02:23
LjLit's NOT normal to do it with a *public* statement in the middle of the night02:23
LjLit's normal to do it privately02:23
de-facto(1−0,79)÷(1−0,74) = 0.802:23
kreyren<LjL "it's NOT normal to do it with a "> i assume they were working on it for a longer time and found it to be so important to release it at that time?02:24
LjLi don't assume anything02:24
LjLi'm just a bit sick and tired of all these shenanigans02:25
kreyrenwell i hypothetize02:25
LjLkreyren, okay if we're making hypotheses, i guess there's two big clusters of hypotheses that you could make02:26
kreyrenye more honesty in science woudn't hurt02:26
LjLlet's call it the LjL hypothesis and the de-facto hypothesis, completely random names02:26
kreyreno.o02:26
* kreyren is mentally preparing on femboy comments about his smooth skin02:26
LjLthe LjL hypothesis is that AZ is being a bit incompetent and also lying and government agencies (both in the EU and US) are now tired of this and so they're playing their cards by making public statements in a bold way02:26
LjLthe de-facto hypothesis is that they are making public statements in a bold way not because AZ is at fault but for some geopolitical reasons02:27
LjLi do not attribute these hypotheses to anyone, i just gave them arbitrary names :P02:27
LjLkreyren, don't worry i only make a joke once, and then every other possible time02:27
kreyrenseems pretty attributable to me though :p How can we disprove these to deduce the truth ?02:27
kreyrenI think that geopolitical reasons are credible concern02:28
de-factoheh i did not say they do that, i just said AZ opened the opportunity for their opponents to amplify some confusion about their stats02:28
kreyrenhm O.o02:28
LjLkreyren, well i kind of lean towards the LjL hypothesis (strangely enough) and i'd say my reason for doing that is that, while geopolitical shenanigans with vaccines are certainly occurring, AZ data have been just a little shoddy all along. not necessarily "suspicious", just all over the place and unclear.02:28
LjLokay, that's the de-facto-LjL hypothesis then02:29
LjLAZ was incompetent and people took advantage of that02:29
LjL(people/countries/governments/Soviet Russia/whatever)02:29
kreyreni wonder if that incompetence translates to the vaccine as it seems to be less efficient in comparison to it's competetors02:29
* kreyren thinks of it as looking at terribly written code made to barely work atm, but he cannot be sure without source code 02:30
LjLthat's honestly my own concern about the vaccine, not necessarily those very rare blood clotting events: that the company doesn't seem very reliable to me, and that its efficacy is lowish, especially very low with the South African variant, to the point that South Africa is getting rid of its own AZ supplies and giving them to other countries02:30
LjLin fact these concerns are so concerning, to me, that i'd take Pfizer or Moderna in preference to AZ *even though* i'd have more risk of blood clots from those :P02:30
LjLbut of course i don't really get to choose and i'll initially take what i'm offered02:30
de-factoactually the AZ is the vaccine developed against MERS-CoV long time ago and Oxford using that platform to update it with the SARS-CoV-2 S-protein instead of the MERS-CoV equivalent02:31
kreyrenwell i can abuse my political influence to get to choose.. it would just be very painful to then handle02:31
LjLkreyren, well if you have means to cut corners, that's not my business, but ethics-wise i would say that if, as you say, you're one of the people *least* at risk in your country (despite your other conditions, but just because you don't see anyone), it would be reasonable to give people more at risk of actual COVID priority and just wait02:32
kreyrenIs the percentage on AZ even credible? or did they have the option to cherrypick the crowd ?02:32
LjLpfft, it's as credible as the others02:33
LjLi don't see a reason to be *more* suspicious of AZ than other companies in just the picking of samples etc02:33
de-factoLjL, again i am pretty sure all of the current vaccines have their problems with the SA variant, not only AZ but also Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna or J&J/J or Novavax  or $any_1st_gen02:33
kreyreni am at more risk due to my breathing issues thus why i care so much..02:33
LjLde-facto, you can be pretty sure but the only evidence of no efficacy against mild and moderate disease (to quote the expression in its entirety) is about AZ so far02:34
LjLi'm less sure02:34
kreyrenalso about Sputnik V02:34
LjLone reason i'm less sure is simply that Pfizer and Moderna start out with 95% efficacy02:34
LjLinstead of 70%02:34
LjLno sorry i mean 90%02:34
LjLno sorry i mean 60%02:34
kreyrenbut the AZ is more sane to take atm it seems02:34
LjLno sorry i mean 79%02:34
LjLno wait the NIH alleges it's 71% or 74%02:34
LjLcan i play these numbers on the lotto or does this fall under EU database directive and they're copyrighted?02:35
kreyrenso if it's built on MERS-CoV maybe it's more efficient agains MERS and just so happens to be also somewhat efficient on SARS-CoV ?02:35
LjLkreyren, it's "built" on it, it is not it02:35
de-factowell if the other ones had to decide if they want to see such evidence about their vaccines they rather wouldnt if they new already by their neutralization assays its about 10-fold less capable of neutralizing the SA variant02:35
LjLthey took their vaccine platform and modified it for SARS-COV-2, which is an entirely reasonable thing to do02:36
LjLthe vaccine targets specifically SARS-COV-2, not MERS02:36
LjL%tr <it Chi vivrà vedrà.02:36
kreyreni know just trying to understand the observed efficiency and whether it is even worth it to take as it might not provide strong enough immune response that would then be compromising agains other vaccines (assuming a scenario where i would need additional vaccine on top of AZ)02:36
BrainstormLjL, Italian to English: Who will live will see. (MyMemory) — Time will tell. (Google) — #Who will live will see. (Apertium)02:36
de-factokreyren, its a vaccine platform, so the actual antigen produced is either for MERS-CoV or for SARS-CoV-2, think of it like a payload in a computer virus or such02:36
de-factoputting in the correct data and it works on the target platform02:37
kreyreni am familiar with the platform.. rather question whether they know what they are doing assuming competence being a questioned in relation to them02:37
de-factothe vector itself (or the platform) is just the transport vehicle02:37
LjLkreyren, as de-facto mentioned before those, the basic vaccine was developed by Oxford, not AZ02:37
LjLAZ made some changes, i understand, to make it more amenable to mass production02:38
kreyrenthose are what i question02:38
de-factoJenner Institute pretty sure knew what they were doing there02:38
LjLwell i can't question them because even if i have the DNA to read i have no means to understand anything from it02:38
kreyrenx.x02:39
de-factoi wish they would publish the sequence (as well as the others)02:39
LjLin line of principle, i wish it too02:39
LjLbut it's not like i personally could make anything out of them02:39
de-factoyou could feed them in the bio-info databases and do your research02:40
de-factoblast them etc02:40
de-factoor all the bio-informatics out there could do that02:40
kreyrenFree and open-source DNA Sequences!02:40
de-factoyes YES  Y E S02:41
LjLit's kind of absurd to think that there are DNA sequences that are NOT free and open02:41
LjLcopyrighted organisms02:41
* kreyren wonders if he could fork those 02:41
* de-facto copyrights transcriptase02:41
* LjL turns into an RNA-world organism02:41
de-factoheh02:41
* de-facto sues LjL for patent infringement02:42
* LjL breaks down into just a puddle of aminoacids02:46
de-factoactually its pretty cool, i bet in 20 years from now we are like "and this awesome new type of medical treatment all started with the development boost motivated by the pandemic"02:46
LjLsure, and i'll say "what? say again, i couldn't hear you from behind the mask"02:46
* kreyren hopes to be able to plug a USB cable in himself and debug his DNA 02:46
kreyren.. in 20 years02:46
kreyrenx.x02:46
de-factoits pretty much turning medicine in something that comes much closer to computer science where the information itself is the key element and not the transport vehicle or such02:47
de-factoits the information that is told to a cell that enables it to produce the cure02:48
LjLand hopefully it won't cost €2000 to get it so that medicine won't be confined to the wealthy in the ever-growing gap between rich and poor02:48
de-factothey already are working on new approached to cure things like MS or cancer with those new platforms02:49
LjLthe direction we're currently going, innovative treatments cost an arm and a leg, and as you saw these vaccine companies have already bluntly told their investors they fully intend to turn vaccines into a big cash cow once the pandemic is "over"02:49
* kreyren was considering paying 3000 USD for pfyzer vaccine when CZ gov hugged up, but decided that the source cannot be trusted and that he has no way of verifying the content02:49
kreyrenu.u02:49
LjLdark web vaccine, that's going to be WAY safer than just a regular AZ shot...02:50
kreyrenye x.x02:50
kreyrenwould be perfect if i knew how to verify the content02:50
LjLput it in you and then ask someone with COVID to cough in your face02:50
LjLthen you should be able to verify in ~7 days02:51
de-factoi bet it would be like taking a sample, sequence it, send it to a company, they analyze the sequence, propose an individualize treatment option, and if bought from them one could download a squence for loading into a vector platform, print that out and give to the patient in order to tell the cells how to produce the individualized medicine e.g. just telling the immune system what to do in order to get rid of a problem such as cancer02:51
* kreyren was considering to do that with one of his followers, but decided that he doesn't want to be responsible for their harm02:51
LjLyou a social media star?02:51
de-facto(in an ideal world of course, but heh it looks promising)02:52
kreyrennah people just like me too much and do what i tell them x.x02:52
kreyrenit's the smooth femboy skin i assume02:52
LjLmust be the smoo...02:52
kreyren...02:52
kreyrenI KNEW YOU WOULD SAY THAT AHAHAHA02:52
LjLand i owned up to it by pressing Enter anyway!02:52
kreyrenxD02:53
kreyreni am slowly loosing my muscles and gaining fat on this current life style though U.U02:53
LjLif you can go bike in places that are not crowded that's not really going to be a particular risk imo02:55
kreyrentried.. too many people there u.u02:55
kreyrenand the residence where i have a pool is also somewhat crowded u.u02:56
kreyrenswimming would be perfect >.<02:56
LjLwell i have a treadmill. it is not very fun, but i can tread, and mill03:02
LjLde-facto, background from random tweet (i'm trying to understand, so far we mostly have gossip, but this seems like a plausible reason why the DSMB/NIH would get pissed at them saying 79% even if it's just 74% so not much different): "From what I understand the DSMB knew of a lower efficacy (but still ok, like high 60-mid 70 IIRC) from the primary results, told AZ to use that, but AZ did a PR with the (better) interim results because... *shrug*"03:07
LjLif they had agreed with the DSMB to publish efficacy claims based on particular data, and then AZ went ahead and published something different instead, i can understand the DSMB would be pissed off03:08
LjLit may not make much of a difference in terms of actual efficiency, but it does in terms of this company playing dirty tricks and annoying the EU, the US, and cascading down, everyone03:08
LjLde-facto, here you go: https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/137438901335676928703:09
de-factoyet i still dont understand that then03:10
de-factowhy would AZ go for the better data if they knew already their final endpoint would be below that?03:11
LjLbecause they're idiots?03:11
LjLthey seem to be showing it03:11
de-factotheir PR department definitely did not go for the smartest strategy03:11
LjLthey also claim 100% efficacy against "severe and death"03:11
LjLbut03:11
LjLfrom hearsay data (twitter) i'm seeing, that's based on: 5 severe cases in placebo, 0 in verum03:11
LjLout of a total of03:12
LjL(i'm not rolling the drums, i need to find it again :P)03:12
de-facto...03:12
LjL114 cases in placebo, and 27 in verum03:12
LjLnow tell me... doesn't that make it very likely, statistically, that you'd simply have 0 severe cases in verum?03:12
LjLor at most, one03:13
LjL27/114 = 0.23, 0.23*5 = 1.1503:13
LjLand i have no idea how to obtain a confidence interval03:13
LjLbut i think if the most likely outcome is having *one* severe patient, then *zero* is also very very likely03:14
LjLand this whole story of "100% effective against hospitalization and death" when it's actually based on too small numbers to say that has been... repeating (see south africa)03:14
LjLit just seems like they're pushing that a lot to make up for low-ish efficacy03:14
LjLbut they don't have solid data to say it, they just do because "0"03:14
de-facto27×(5÷114) ~ 1.18 cases to expect in the verum group if vaccination would not have any effect03:15
de-factoso yeah pretty close to 003:16
de-factoone case more or less making the whole difference03:16
LjLand yet, press conference bolding stating "100% efficacy against dying!"03:16
de-factobut thats the problem with stats, only the big numbers give confidence03:17
LjLsure, that's why we have confidence interval03:17
LjLand why we should have statisticians telling PR people "wait, no, you shouldn't write 100% there, that's just not... no"03:17
LjLwhat will happen if some people start dying from COVID after getting AZ? what good will that make to the vaccine's PR, after they told everyone it has 100% efficacy against death?03:18
de-factobtw you rounded your numbers wrong your result should have been 1.18 too :P03:19
de-factoyeah its just not enough cases accumulated to make such bold statements03:20
LjLsorry herr professor, give me a C too, like to AZ :P03:20
de-factolol03:20
de-factoactually who does the stats for AZ, is it them or some department in OX?03:22
de-factoi am always a bit confused about their approaches, they seem to have quite some good ideas (e.g. having placebo arm with another vaccine to disable prediction by side effects, or having PCR screening tests in their trials etc)03:23
BrainstormNew from Virological.org: Latest posts: Assemblies of putative SARS-CoV2-spike-encoding mRNA sequences for vaccines BNT-162b2 and mRNA-1273: Dae Eun Jeong, Matthew McCoy, Karen Artiles, Orkan Ilbay, Andrew Fire*, Kari Nadeau, Helen Park, Brooke Betts, Scott Boyd, Ramona Hoh, and Massa Shoura* Departments of Pathology, Genetics, Pediatrics, and [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/fYJAG703:24
de-factothen at the same time they mess up things like their dosing schemes or how they present their stats so it looks like shenanigans to the public03:25
LjLi think at this point it's all AZ but i dunno really03:25
de-factohowly cow03:26
de-factothere it is03:26
de-factothe moderna rna03:26
LjLhaha yeah03:26
LjLi was about to tell you03:26
LjLthey got it from discarded vaccine drops :P03:27
de-factohttps://github.com/NAalytics/Assemblies-of-putative-SARS-CoV2-spike-encoding-mRNA-sequences-for-vaccines-BNT-162b2-and-mRNA-127303:27
LjLyes03:27
de-factoNEAT :)03:27
LjLi suggest downloading, i don't necessarily expect that to *remain* there ;)03:27
de-facto40 seconds old the latest commit03:28
LjLi've added the commit feed to Brainstorm03:31
LjLde-facto, i see both vaccines have a signal peptide03:31
de-factook Moderna got Wuhan s-protein with K986P and  V987P mutations to stabilize it in prefusion configuration just exactly like the other mRNA vaccines03:34
de-factothat signal peptide looks very similar to BNT03:36
de-factoyeah its from SARS-CoV-2 itself03:37
LjLah03:38
* LjL stops BLASTing it then03:38
LjLi'm not very surprised these two vaccines have similar efficacy :P03:39
de-factoi just did paste it in https://www.gisaid.org/epiflu-applications/covsurver-mutations-app/03:39
de-factoyeah they look very similar03:40
de-factoyet im curious about the begin and end sequences because they might influence how frequently and how often they get translated into s-protein03:40
LjLyuriwho, https://raw.githubusercontent.com/NAalytics/Assemblies-of-putative-SARS-CoV2-spike-encoding-mRNA-sequences-for-vaccines-BNT-162b2-and-mRNA-1273/main/Assemblies%20of%20putative%20SARS-CoV2-spike-encoding%20mRNA%20sequences%20for%20vaccines%20BNT-162b2%20and%20mRNA-1273.pdf03:41
de-facto(e.g. "attractiveness" as in translation freq and how "stable" it is before its degraded)03:42
LjLmy guess is the stability due to presence or lack of those two famous stabilizing mutation is what makes a difference with AZ03:44
LjLde-facto, btw Derek Lowe also mentions how the 100% number is, well, he says "There’s always room to argue about that latter number" but i think if he were rewriting the whole article now, he'd say it more bluntly :P03:49
de-factomaybe, but it also does not mean its untrue or such, yet there is no 100.000000% in vaccination protection03:54
LjLit's pretty much untrue. it's a PR statement. in terms of a PR statement, it is highly misleading, which again in terms of a PR statement, equates to untrue03:55
LjLstatistically, that number is only meaningful with a confidence interval next to it03:55
LjLin which case it would be "true" but anyone reading it would also look at the confidence interval03:55
de-factoheh maybe we will see a berthub.eu article soon about ModeRNA?03:59
de-factothat would be awesome i love his posts03:59
LjLi'm not sure these sequences can be discussed much "in the open" without risking legal action tbh04:07
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Recent Commits to links:master: Add whole debacle with DSMB/NIH rebuking AstraZeneca press conference ( https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/dcf5c3aeb3a6c8ca7fdf19e6bc7c83afff98f1be )04:08
de-facto"Although our analysis mainly focused on RNAs obtained as soon as possible following discard, we also analyzed samples which had been refrigerated (~4 °C) for up to 42 days with and without the addition of EDTA. Interestingly a substantial fraction of the RNA remained intact in these preparations."04:09
de-facto"We note that the formulation of the vaccines includes numerous key chemical components which are quite possibly unstable under these conditions-- so these data certainly do not suggest that the vaccine as a biological agent is stable. But it is of interest that chemical stability of RNA itself is not sufficient to preclude eventual development of vaccines with a much less involved cold-chain storage and transportation."04:10
de-factoafaik CureVac is able to do that already04:10
de-factostable at standard fridge temp , not sure how long exactly though but quite long04:11
BrainstormNew from https://covid19.specops.network : Add whole debacle with DSMB/NIH rebuking AstraZeneca press conference: Using Washington Time article as they are the ones who leaked the letter between the board and AZ, plus StatNews for Fauci's statements and other details → https://is.gd/p1L6qr04:11
de-facto"Spike-encoding contig assembled from Moderna mRNA-1273 vaccine. This is a partial sequence of the vaccine RNA. Although the full coding region is included, the assembled contig could lack some sequence from the ends of the RNA."04:15
de-factoAAA...A...AAA?04:16
de-factowell a few more or less A's does that really matter so much? it may get translated a few more times or faster or such?04:17
LjLHmm I read about the As the other day, I forget now05:28
LjLI think it had to do with robustness, as in not failing to be translated05:29
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BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | March 24, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://is.gd/qQi9Qu08:06
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BrainstormNew from ProPublica: Meet ProPublica’s 2021 Diversity Scholarship Recipients: by Adriana Gallardo , Ash Ngu and Mollie Simon ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published. We’re excited to announce the 25 recipients of the 2021 ProPublica Diversity [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/5QSs3D11:20
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BrainstormNew from Politico: Merkel U-turns on Easter lockdown amid criticism: The chancellor said she takes responsibility for the 'mistake' of having suggested a hard lockdown over the holiday. → https://is.gd/oWdiYn13:16
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Pfizer trials new pill that could stop early-stage Covid in its tracks → https://is.gd/PSBTyE13:27
BrainstormNew from Politico: Germany urges Commission to purchase Sputnik vaccine at EU level: Berlin wants Brussels to start negotiations with Moscow while the vaccine awaits regulatory approval. → https://is.gd/OZ395N13:38
BrainstormNew from Politico: UK makes £8B bet on rapid tests as route out of lockdown: The government is gambling on lateral flow tests to lift restrictions but not all experts are convinced. → https://is.gd/iWQQx313:58
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Diseases, Conditions, Syndromes: Get the COVID vaccine that's available to you—and don't forget your flu shot → https://is.gd/hNAoNk14:09
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: A single vaccine to beat all coronaviruses sounds impossible—but scientists are already working on one: Variants of the virus that causes COVID-19 are emerging and becoming dominant around the world. So some vaccines are being updated to allow our immune system to learn how to deal with them. → https://is.gd/vqYroH14:20
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Vaccini, nota della Presidenza del Consiglio ( http://www.governo.it/it/articolo/vaccini-nota-della-presidenza-del-consiglio/16457 )14:27
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Pharma: STAT+: Pharmalittle: Europe moves to curb Covid-19 vaccine exports; Slaoui fired from Galvani board over sexual harassment claim → https://is.gd/TC3SXR14:32
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: How does COVID-19 affect the heart?: A year into the COVID-19 pandemic, doctors and researchers are beginning to understand how the disease affects patients beyond initial respiratory symptoms. Mariam Bonyadi Camacho, a student in the medical scholars program at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, co-wrote a recent [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/OKBQ0B15:15
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Boris Johnson 'regrets' Wales having so much power over lockdown → https://is.gd/i17zkN15:26
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Where is the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine made?: The EU has warned it could ban exports of vaccines made in the bloc. How would this affect the UK? → https://is.gd/KCvRz215:36
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: When can kids get the COVID-19 vaccine? A pediatrician answers 5 questions parents are asking: A big question among parents and teachers right now is whether their kids will be vaccinated against COVID-19 in time for the fall school semester. Some have wondered whether the vaccine is even necessary for children. Dr. James Wood, [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/6IMdBE15:47
BrainstormNew from WebMD: Cancer Screening Rates Back to Normal After Dip: After a sharp drop early in the COVID-19 pandemic, rates of routine breast and colon cancer screening soon returned to near-normal levels, a new study finds. → https://is.gd/K5pNcC15:57
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Is Bio-adrenomedullin (Bio-ADM) a Prognostic Factor in Patients With COVID-19 Treated in the ICU? → https://is.gd/9AXJsy16:20
de-facto.title https://www.lastampa.it/topnews/primo-piano/2021/03/24/news/astrazeneca-nasconde-30-milioni-di-dosi-in-italia-e-scontro-con-londra-1.4006434116:34
Brainstormde-facto: From www.lastampa.it: AstraZeneca nasconde 30 milioni di dosi in Italia. E’ scontro con Londra - La Stampa16:34
de-factoLjL, wow.16:34
de-factoAstraZeneca should have delivered 100M doses to EU till end of March16:36
de-factothat was in their contract they agreed upon16:36
de-factonow they said they only would deliver 30M doses to the EU16:36
de-factoand probably dont even deliver that16:36
de-factothere have been 29M doses produced in Halix (Leiden) Netherlands and filled into vials in Italy16:37
de-factobut hidden from the EU because they probably wanted to export those doses from EU to UK16:38
de-factoQuestion: why would doses produced in the EU, filled in the EU and bought by the EU, paid by EU not be delivered to EU but instead tried to be exported secretly?16:39
de-factoor possibly export them to some other location, that seems to be unclear yet16:41
de-facto.title https://www.politico.eu/article/italian-authorities-discover-29m-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-doses-la-stampa/16:52
Brainstormde-facto: From www.politico.eu: Italian authorities discover 29M Oxford/AstraZeneca doses: La Stampa – POLITICO16:52
ArsaneritMaybe because other countries pay more or have ordered earlier?16:55
de-facto.title https://www.ft.com/content/48b28b7e-9161-47a4-9c37-cf89fea2bc1216:56
Brainstormde-facto: From www.ft.com: Subscribe to read | Financial Times16:56
de-factothats what AZ "best effort" looks like?16:57
de-facto.title https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-5650952117:00
Brainstormde-facto: From www.bbc.com: Coronavirus: EU plan for tougher controls on vaccine exports - BBC News17:00
de-factothis is all poop, i go for a walk to calm down :(((17:01
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): The Effect of Helminth Infection Plus COVID-19 Infection on the Immune Response and Intestinal Microorganisms → https://is.gd/oiHMAf17:03
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Germany scraps strict Easter shutdown as EU limits vaccine exports: Germany on Wednesday backtracked on its plan to impose a strict Easter weekend shutdown after public outcry, as the European Union said it would tighten vaccine export controls in a bid to ramp up its stuttering inoculation campaign. → https://is.gd/21S5nS17:14
BrainstormNew from Emma Hodcroft: @firefoxx66: I'm speaking on tracking #SARSCoV2 & how we can do it better, in about 40 minutes, at the public session of Predicting & Responding to Emerging Viruses Symposium @uarizona - alongside some wonderful other speakers!Register here:https://medicine.arizona.edu/emerging-viruses-pandemics-symposium(Times in US Pacific) → https://is.gd/VgVgBu17:25
kreyrenhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZXu5B7HLw017:33
kreyren> Hong Kong suspends BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine due to faulty packaging17:34
kreyrenhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ML9NcCP0dNE17:36
BrainstormNew from Politico: EU sends Italian police to find AstraZeneca vaccines, triggering global angst: The move demonstrates the fever pitch the vaccine rollouts have created — and just how distant talks of global cooperation feel now. → https://is.gd/rL6oXF17:46
LjLde-facto: AZ cannot remotely be trusted, I don't know what more they need to do for us to be convinced of that17:48
LjLde-facto: and 30 million doses delivered (if they do deliver them) out of 100 promised is even more than I thought, because TV in Italy had kept saying they were only delivering 10% of promised17:51
BrainstormNew from EMA: What's new: Document: Eli Lilly and Company Limited antibody combination (bamlanivimab / etesevimab - COVID19 - Article-5(3) procedure: Assessment report → https://is.gd/RJe5Nt17:56
de-factoyeah Eli Lilly is completely useless against the B.1.351 variant and Regeneron cocktail very soon too because one of the two antibodies in it also is completely useless against B.1.35117:59
de-factoit may help with B.1.1.7 though18:00
BrainstormNew from In The Pipeline: Oligonucleotides And Their Discontents: I remember being at a chemistry meeting in New Jersey back in around 1990 or 1991, where a speaker mentioned in passing that most of the people in the room would probably soon be offered a chance to move to California and work for some small company trying to develop antisense drugs. [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/qtUGsz18:27
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Shame of contracting COVID-19 can prevent individuals declaring infection to authorities: New research from the University of Kent and Leeds Beckett University has found that feelings of shame and stigmatization at the idea of contracting COVID-19 are linked to lower compliance of social distancing and the likelihood of [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/RK4xOi18:38
LjLde-facto: is it true Merkel has "undone" the Easter lockdown?18:42
de-factoits a complete failure.18:49
de-factoMerkel seems the only one with sane words and no-one listens to her anymore, the Ministers just do what they want (result: accelerated exponential growth of daily new infections). it seems any chance for scientific approaches is lost now, everyone just doing whatever they want18:54
de-factothis is going to end with a big disaster if it progresses like that18:55
de-factopreviously they agreed on an emergency break, except now when its needed they quickly agreed upon not implementing it18:57
de-factoall this does not make any sense to me anymore. i completely lost trust and hope.18:57
xebrahi, is there a way to compare the current restrictions between different countries? For example, I'd like to know what you can or cannot do right now in Germany, India, Sweden, USA, etc.18:58
bin_bashIt would be difficult for the US since it's completely regional18:58
bin_bashThere's no federal lockdown or restriction18:58
xebrait would be one of the most interesting thing ever, to be able to compare in real time how different countries are acting19:01
xebraHere right now all restaurants are closed, it would be cool to check a map and see where in the world they are closed too19:01
bin_bashclosed for takeout too?19:02
xebrabin_bash, no, that's allowed19:03
Arsaneritreopen.eu has that19:03
Arsanerithttps://reopen.europa.eu19:03
ArsaneritOh, not any more.  They did last summer.19:03
bin_bashAh in some parts of the US restaurants are open for dining in and in some parts they're not. Some individual restaurants make their own choices too19:03
xebraArsanerit, maybe they have another project now called reclose, lol19:04
ArsaneritThey have some data though.19:04
xebrabin_bash, actually, the law can be pretty complicated in detail, and I don't know it. Some time ago (probably now too) it was not possible to sell alcohol for takeaway19:05
bin_bashxebra: yeah that varies by county and city/town in the US19:06
xebraArsanerit, that site is interesting anyway, thanks19:07
xebrathen the issue is even more complicated when you consider whether and how the measures are actually enforced19:09
BrainstormNew from Scientific American: The Coronavirus Variants Don't Seem to Be Highly Variable So Far: SARS-CoV-2 may be settling into a limited set of mutations -- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com → https://is.gd/KXcf9i19:10
xebrahere curfew starts at 10 PM, ends at 5 AM. I guess19:12
xebrabut I'm seeing in some countries it starts as early as 6 PM. Geez.19:12
xebrabin_bash, are gyms and swimming pools closed in the US? Here (Italy) they've been closed for... months, I actually don't even remember if they were ever really open19:18
BrainstormNew from Politico: Borders: Britain mulls tougher COVID border measures with France ‘very soon’ → https://is.gd/Yx1nAB19:21
de-factothat would be good news if the convergent mutations of SARS-CoV-2 are predetermined to be restricted to a limited space of possibilities19:22
de-factowould that be a property depending more on the pathogen or the host environment?19:24
de-factohow can they distinguish between convergent evolution and recombination of advantageous mutations that travel globally?19:27
de-facto"For this reason, two of the leading scientific websites (http://covariants.org/ and http://outbreak.info) that track variants now report these shared, defining mutations to simplify and consolidate our attention."19:28
de-factonice thats a new one, did not know about outbreak.info before19:29
de-factoheh its pretty cool, LjL did you know about http://outbreak.info ?19:30
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Coronavirus: EU and UK try to end row with 'win-win' on vaccines: After weeks of tension over Covid vaccine supplies, the two sides now say they are working together. → https://is.gd/PWNid419:31
de-factoLjL, https://api.outbreak.info/try/resources19:41
BrainstormNew from Gazzetta Ufficiale italiana: MINISTERO DELLA SALUTE - DECRETO 12 marzo 2021: Approvazione del  Piano  strategico  nazionale  dei  vaccini  per  laprevenzione delle infezioni da SARS-CoV-2  costituito  dal  documentorecante «Elementi di preparazione della strategia vaccinale», di  cuial  decreto  2   gennaio   2021   nonche'   dal   [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/NNfnpg19:42
de-factohttps://github.com/outbreak-info19:42
LjLde-facto, nope i didn't know about it, looks interesting19:43
LjLde-facto, i think the possible mutations to the spike protein are limited to the fact it still needs to bind to ACE2. of course they can still be a large number, but maybe computers can rule out a large amount of them19:44
de-factomakes sense19:45
de-factounless...19:51
de-facto.title https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.23.350348v119:51
Brainstormde-facto: From www.biorxiv.org: Transferrin receptor is another receptor for SARS-CoV-2 entry | bioRxiv19:51
BrainstormNew from WebMD: Variants of Variants Seen In COVID-Ravaged Brazil: The unchecked spread of the more contagious coronavirus variants in Brazil appears to have created even more dangerous versions of the virus that causes COVID-19. → https://is.gd/lpMoso20:03
de-factolovely.20:06
de-facto.title https://virological.org/t/the-ongoing-evolution-of-variants-of-concern-and-interest-of-sars-cov-2-in-brazil-revealed-by-convergent-indels-in-the-amino-n-terminal-domain-of-the-spike-protein/65920:07
Brainstormde-facto: From virological.org: The ongoing evolution of variants of concern and interest of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil revealed by convergent indels in the amino (N)-terminal domain of the Spike protein - nCoV-2019 Genomic Epidemiology - [...]20:07
LjLugh20:16
LjLnot sure if i want to read and be scared20:16
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Convocazione del Consiglio dei Ministri n. 9 ( http://www.governo.it/it/articolo/convocazione-del-consiglio-dei-ministri-n-9/16487 )20:17
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Consiglio dei Ministri n. 9 ( http://www.governo.it/it/articolo/consiglio-dei-ministri-n-9/16488 )20:17
bin_bashi guess he left but like I said, NOTHING is closed on the federal level20:20
de-facto.title https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/20/americas/brazil-coronavirus-crisis-vaccine-distribution-shortfalls-latam-intl/index.html20:26
Brainstormde-facto: From edition.cnn.com: Brazil coronavirus: No vaccines, no leadership, no end in sight. How nation has become a global threat - CNN20:26
de-facto.title https://github.com/CADDE-CENTRE/Novel-SARS-CoV-2-P1-Lineage-in-Brazil/blob/main/manuscript/FINAL_P1_MANUSCRIPT_25-02-2021_combined.pdf20:32
Brainstormde-facto: From github.com: Novel-SARS-CoV-2-P1-Lineage-in-Brazil/FINAL_P1_MANUSCRIPT_25-02-2021_combined.pdf at main · CADDE-CENTRE/Novel-SARS-CoV-2-P1-Lineage-in-Brazil · GitHub20:32
de-facto"Molecular clock analysis shows that P.1 emergence occurred around early November 2020 and was preceded by a period of faster molecular evolution. Using a two-category dynamical model that integrates genomic and mortality data, we estimate that P.1 may be 1.4–2.2 times more transmissible and able to evade 25-61% of protective immunity elicited by previous infection with non-P.1 lineages."20:33
de-facto.title https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-03-brazil-covid-increasingly-young.html20:36
Brainstormde-facto: From medicalxpress.com: In Brazil, COVID increasingly hitting the young20:36
de-factohttps://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=P.120:39
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Consiglio europeo del 25-26 marzo ( http://www.governo.it/it/articolo/consiglio-europeo-del-25-26-marzo/16484 )20:47
BrainstormNew from WebMD: Students Try to Cope as Pandemic Strains Mental Health: Millions of teens and young adults are part of a mental health crisis that was worsening before the pandemic but has only accelerated in the past year. Experts say the time for interventions is now. → https://is.gd/3Z33VY20:55
BrainstormNew from WebMD: Students Try to Cope as Pandemic Strains Mental Health: Millions of teens and young adults are part of a mental health crisis that was worsening before the pandemic but has only accelerated in the past year. Experts say the time for interventions is now. → https://is.gd/3Z33VY21:12
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Recent Commits to links:master: Add outbreak.info to various sections ( https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/12f1bfbff2a227a31fa98f5df5714f4d4abc5d45 )21:19
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Finland, Iceland approve AstraZeneca jab for seniors: Finland and Iceland announced Wednesday their senior citizens will again be able to have the AstraZeneca vaccination against COVID-19, after halting the jabs over blood clot fears. → https://is.gd/IMoK2p21:23
LjLde-facto, from outbreaks.info i've discovered https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/research/coronavirus/ which is described at https://academic.oup.com/nar/article/49/D1/D1534/5964074 and also http://covidlit.spectrumhealth.org/ which is like a community-curated selection of papers from it, unfortunately it appears to have no RSS feed21:34
BrainstormNew from NPR: Operation Warp Speed's Slaoui Ousted From Medical Company Board Over Misconduct Claim: Moncef Slaoui, who helped led Operation Warp Speed under the Trump administration, was removed from a medical device startup's board over allegations of sexual harassment. → https://is.gd/kvlg5A21:44
finely[m]I like the phrase vaccine apartheid.21:48
finely[m]https://theintercept.com/2021/03/24/covid-vaccine-stocks-biden-conflict/21:48
LjLi don't know about the phrase, i certainly don't like that it's being a thing, although i find it somewhat inevitable21:50
de-factoheh those are really neat too22:03
finely[m]Corruption is not inevitable, but is sadly very common. Having a system  with different groups of people having different rights seems like apartheid to me. The consequences of not having access to a vaccine is pretty extreme too.22:04
de-factoits crazy how many papers are published about COVID each day22:12
rpifan00.22:12
de-factoroughly every 4 minute another paper22:13
ArsaneritWhy do some (many) people remain asymptomatic but not others?22:39
de-factoid you can explain that in every case the paper would probably be on the cover page of Nature or such22:41
de-facto*if you can explain that in every case the paper would probably be on the cover page of Nature or such22:41
de-factothe easiest approach would be to assume different infecting contamination doses, e.g. different startpoints22:42
ArsaneritHas there been such a paper on the cover of Nature or such?22:43
de-factobut there are also many other factors (e.g. genetic, blood groups, health conditions, maybe even things like background cross-reactive immunity, more recently: vaccination and recovery etc)22:43
de-factoi dont think it has been explained in every aspect yet22:43
de-factohttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/research/coronavirus/docsum?text=asymptomatic 3415 paper just there about that22:45
ArsaneritI wonder how scientists do their literature survey.22:54
Arsaneritfinely[m]: That's not what apartheid means.22:54
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: After one year and 300 thousand dead, brazil creates a special health committee to deal with Covid → https://is.gd/Nn0bAj23:12
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): nCoV: Global COVID-19 cases rise for 4th straight week | 24MAR21 → https://is.gd/RVoQ3623:23

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