| Brainstorm | New from Derek Lowe: @jflier: RT by @Dereklowe: U.S. Should Donate Covid-19 Vaccines to Stem India Crisis - As soon as possible. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-04-24/u-s-should-donate-covid-19-vaccines-to-stem-india-crisis → https://is.gd/Xg4vM7 | 01:39 |
|---|---|---|
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +27 deaths (now 10594) since 9 hours ago | 02:08 |
| LjL | Dered Lowe says that, but i'm just back from Reddit seeing most Americans there saying they should definitely vaccinate every single American before exporting anything to India or elsewhere... | 02:15 |
| LjL | (well, Derek Lowe retweets that, rather) | 02:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: As COVID-19 devastates India, deaths go undercounted → https://is.gd/C4mLke | 02:19 |
| oxek | try explaining to people that the more indians become infected, the higher the probability of a VoC being born | 02:20 |
| oxek | I've been trying to explain that to people for why they should protect themselves even if statistically nothing will happen to them | 02:21 |
| oxek | more people infected -> higher probability of a concerning mutation | 02:21 |
| LjL | oxek, but even aside from such subtleties, come on, the US is piling up AZ supplies that they aren't using because it's not approved and not even very likely to get approved any time soon | 02:27 |
| LjL | it's tens of millions of them, now i know, Indians are more than a billion, but still it's mindblowing they'd just pile them up while their own vaccine demand is dwindling and they aren't using them | 02:27 |
| LjL | and then people pick on the EU | 02:27 |
| LjL | hell i pick on the EU, but just... come on | 02:28 |
| ryouma | well if the military are refusing them and there's a war then maybe they want to be able to force them on the military or some such thing? | 02:34 |
| oxek | LjL: just like with everything else (e.g. overproduction of food and throwing it away, while there are starving people in other parts of the world), logistics and transportation is the problem | 02:34 |
| ryouma | ah | 02:35 |
| oxek | can't just load a bunch of vaccines, that require special handling and conditions, onto a plane and fly it halfway around the world, and start injecting it into whoever comes to the airplane | 02:35 |
| ryouma | but could you send it overr there and let an ngo or the indiang gov do it? | 02:35 |
| oxek | ryouma: don't have sufficient freezers, can't transport it all over india quickly enough (and there are many transportation challenges in india) | 02:36 |
| LjL | oxek, well right now the US is just saying "no", not "we'll have to figure out the logistics" | 02:36 |
| oxek | 'no' is often a quicker answer than having to explain it | 02:37 |
| oxek | which pretty much is the case here | 02:37 |
| LjL | India has been producing and exporting AstraZeneca | 02:37 |
| LjL | they are stopping now, i'd say quite understandably (but the EU is calling them out on it) | 02:38 |
| LjL | so how come, do they have special planes and special freezers that the US lacks? | 02:38 |
| LjL | also, AZ is one of the vaccines with less cold chain requirements | 02:39 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +24404 cases (now 5.5 million) since 22 hours ago — Germany: +8929 cases (now 3.2 million) since 22 hours ago — Netherlands: +4350 cases (now 1.5 million), +12 deaths (now 17124) since 22 hours ago — United Kingdom: +1748 cases (now 4.4 million), +27 deaths (now 127528) since 22 hours ago | 02:39 |
| LjL | also, India is technically/officially only asking for the export ban to be lifted so they can obtain "raw materials" (the article mentions some), not even finished vaccines | 02:39 |
| LjL | the answer is still "no" | 02:39 |
| LjL | also, i think people like Derek Lowe and others he retweets probably know what is feasible and what isn't in terms of shipping vaccines to another country | 02:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network : Add notes about UK and Scottish studies on vaccine efficacy: I need to add those to the links but first I should understand what they actually are saying → https://is.gd/e227hg | 02:40 |
| LjL | (actually that's not the article that mentions raw materials, it's a different one) | 02:40 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Recent Commits to links:master: Add notes about UK and Scottish studies on vaccine efficacy ( https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/47654ab64189b4bfb99978b6610bb9c7d68111f0 ) | 02:40 | |
| ryouma | what did epidemiologists and others predict before the pandemic existed that was wrong and what did they not predict that was right? | 02:41 |
| oxek | epidemiologists that didn't have to make any public statements predicted things pretty accurately (i.e. private conversations with others) | 02:43 |
| ryouma | is that irony or private info? | 02:44 |
| ryouma | are you saying they were afraid to make public statements | 02:44 |
| ryouma | what could be changed to make them not afraid | 02:45 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Recent Commits to links:master: Add other link to Scottish paper that I need to figure out later ( https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/268028c82fdeb5b950a9bba426fe7042186d6c0d ) | 02:45 | |
| Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Add other link to Scottish paper that I need to figure out later → https://is.gd/846RBV | 02:50 |
| ryouma | pseudonymity where you could prove attendance or something | 02:58 |
| LjL | %title https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/mxwtkj/mit_researchers_say_youre_no_safer_from_covid/ | 03:05 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: From www.reddit.com: MIT researchers say you're no safer from Covid indoors at 6 feet or 60 feet in new study challenging social distancing policies : worldnews | 03:05 |
| LjL | (linking to reddit because some of the comment put the study immediately in some potential perspective... although my instinctual feeling is that this claim is roughly correct) | 03:06 |
| LjL | we need to go beyond the "droplets" thinking and reason with aerosol, if that wasn't obvious before, it should be with the more contagious variants | 03:06 |
| ryouma | the web is like 63pc useless for me. most sites don't work. | 03:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: At least 27 die in fire at Baghdad hospital housing Covid patients → https://is.gd/j80hlb | 03:10 |
| LjL | ryouma, if this right now refers to reddit in particular, change the www. into old. and i think there will be better chances of its working, the new version just sucks | 03:11 |
| ryouma | no the sucky reddit loads | 03:12 |
| ryouma | the og source does not | 03:12 |
| ryouma | (i relly don't like that acronym) | 03:12 |
| LjL | first time i see it | 03:12 |
| ryouma | the sucky reddit used to not load | 03:12 |
| LjL | yeah? | 03:13 |
| ryouma | and so i looked for ff extensions to load old. instaed. but none are approved. | 03:13 |
| LjL | i'm always logged in, which allows me to set old as a preference | 03:13 |
| LjL | but i guess you don't want to be logged in, and even then, they may take away that preference at any time, i guess | 03:13 |
| LjL | (and probably will at some point, sigh) | 03:13 |
| ryouma | ah well maybe in some century i will sign up | 03:13 |
| LjL | oh also, the actual link is sucky too, it's an amp link | 03:14 |
| LjL | not sure if that factors into your inability to load it, but it's sucky nonetheless | 03:14 |
| LjL | https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/mit-researchers-say-youre-no-safer-from-covid-indoors-at-6-feet-or-60-feet-in-new-study.html is the non-amp | 03:14 |
| ryouma | amp? | 03:14 |
| LjL | a terrible google thing | 03:14 |
| ryouma | no it is just that they are little children wh odo not like onions | 03:14 |
| ryouma | unless that is related | 03:15 |
| LjL | ah... may be related but more likely than not, they would not like onions anyway even on the "real" site | 03:15 |
| LjL | nor would reddit really let you make an account very easily while on the onions :P | 03:15 |
| ryouma | yeah the web is degrading. and not fun any more. it was fun before 1992 or so. | 03:16 |
| LjL | %wik accelerated mobile pages | 03:16 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, from English Wikipedia: AMP (originally an acronym for Accelerated Mobile Pages) is an open source HTML framework developed by the AMP Open Source Project. It was originally created by Google as a competitor to Facebook Instant Articles and Apple News. AMP is optimized for mobile web browsing and intended to help [... want %more?] → https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerated_Mobile_Pages | 03:16 |
| ryouma | i mean the internet | 03:16 |
| LjL | https://www.pnas.org/content/118/17/e2018995118 is the actual study that the article talks about | 03:16 |
| LjL | ryouma, how have your dentistry adventures been going? mine not so well, tonight the gums around my implant are swelling up and being all red, which i cleverly suspect isn't a good sign :( | 03:17 |
| ryouma | so what is the tldr | 03:18 |
| ryouma | i am trying to not go to the oral surgeon who the dentist reocmmended and said used the same precautions but when called seemed to use muych less precautions. i wish i hadn't cancelled an appt with a previous dentist, who dropped me. i am using lots of fluoride. | 03:19 |
| ryouma | if a single tooth gets bad i will go back to the dentist whose precautions are better but who against instructions made me sped forever filling out intrusive forms and doing x-rays (withouasking if i had them already) and taking pictures while i was verti9cal and therefore unable to think and took a lot out of me | 03:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Twitter Is Blocking Tweets That Criticize How The Indian Government Has Handled The Pandemic → https://is.gd/WyfEcu | 03:21 |
| oxek | ryouma: I'm saying that those I talked to would lose their jobs if they spoke to the public as freely as they speak to me. Lots of 'those idiot f*cks are screwing everything up' was being said by them :) | 03:21 |
| ryouma | i think something is wrong there | 03:21 |
| ryouma | i think the public has a right to know what scientists are saying to one another | 03:21 |
| oxek | that would a lot of expletives | 03:22 |
| ryouma | one day i will try to get on twitter with onions and delete all my tweets and stuff just in case somethig gets taken out of context by some mob or something. or in case twitter itself makes it look like it is out of context. but i dread the effort as that would knock me out for a long time to figure it out and deal with the issues. | 03:24 |
| LjL | oxek, to be fair, that fucking idiots are screwing things up is quite obvious from the current outcomes | 03:25 |
| LjL | are / have been | 03:25 |
| LjL | now as to the details, people get combative | 03:25 |
| oxek | yeah, but can't say that publicly | 03:25 |
| oxek | or on record | 03:25 |
| oxek | since it could be interpreted as the view of the instituion you work at | 03:25 |
| LjL | another thing i fear virologists (more than epidemiologists, but whatever) can't easily say is "hey, look, it definitely COULD have come from that lab" | 03:25 |
| oxek | yeah, or that | 03:26 |
| LjL | not good for their jobs generally if people start thinking virology labs are Bad | 03:26 |
| LjL | also, i suspect one of the few ways we may have at our disposal to "preemptively" make vaccines against future variants "of concern", instead of endlessly chasing them, is to do gain-of-function research | 03:27 |
| ryouma | so yeah that is a concern too. same with possible links of lab-borne viruses and diseases in general. need checks and balances to ensure safety and ability to talk. | 03:27 |
| LjL | but gain-of-function research is the thing that people might object to labs doing, especially if it found that the Wuhan lab was doing it and it led to this | 03:27 |
| LjL | if it is* | 03:28 |
| ryouma | good point | 03:28 |
| ryouma | but you'd think some reporter would catch on to the gossip and report on it? | 03:28 |
| ryouma | i know they don't buyt you'd think whty would | 03:28 |
| oxek | media are vultures | 03:28 |
| LjL | well, there's no lack of "it could have come from the lab" articles | 03:28 |
| oxek | or hyenas | 03:28 |
| ryouma | media are diverse but mostly they are lazy | 03:29 |
| LjL | but only intermittent attention is paid to them, because... yeah, many are trash, and it really depends on whether the establishment is, at any given point in time, considering the lab hypothesis as plausible or as unmentionable | 03:29 |
| ryouma | some topics require atual effort to understand | 03:29 |
| ryouma | idk even if it were proved maybe policy would not change | 03:31 |
| ryouma | although if soebody wanted to invade china or reduce tarriffs or somethign tehy would use that as an excuse | 03:31 |
| ryouma | pretext | 03:31 |
| LjL | i think people would demand changes, if it were made clear that it wasn't "china making bioweapons" but just things that high biosecurity labs do all over the world | 03:32 |
| LjL | but that's a big "if", i think it all depends on how it would be presented | 03:32 |
| ryouma | idk if the people have much say in anything really. most of the time. and when they do, they are possibly manipulated into having that say. | 03:33 |
| ryouma | stem cell research was made more annoying because of culture wars. only because of that i think. | 03:34 |
| ryouma | so if it were like oh those terrible chinese did this. then maybe there would be public pressure. but if it were like scientists did this then it woud be like anti science. and if it were like scientists need to improve then it woul be like nobody caresl | 03:36 |
| ryouma | the wrong lesson is drawn from most scandals | 03:37 |
| LjL | well, i think "close all the virology labs" would be the wrong lesson | 03:37 |
| LjL | though i'm not entirely sure what the right lesson would be | 03:37 |
| ryouma | yeah | 03:37 |
| ryouma | in some cases, external enforcement of scientific misconduct. prison terms. | 03:39 |
| ryouma | buyt more tricky is oversight of practices. asilomar acknowledged but needed to be larger and awareness that internal checks and balances never work in most fields and science is no exception. but then you wuld get totally wrong things done and ipsos custodies would have no custodes. and so you could end up with worse. | 03:39 |
| ryouma | but prison terms for scientific misconduct is an area wher external enforcement would work imo. ui would go even so far as de-accrediting universities that are comp(licit. alhtough that would afffec students, it could be managers so that adminstrations have to be replaced. | 03:41 |
| LjL | i don't know how i feel about things like prison terms unless it's gross negligence | 03:50 |
| LjL | and... it might be, but, i have the sneaking suspicion that viruses are very tiny things that have a capacity for ending up where you don't want them to, sometimes, even if you take all sorts of precautions | 03:51 |
| LjL | maybe it only happens every 100 years per each decently managed lab | 03:51 |
| LjL | but how many labs are there? and do we want a lab-caused pandemic every century either? | 03:51 |
| ryouma | i am not talking about little mistakes | 03:52 |
| ryouma | i am talking about fraud and such | 03:53 |
| LjL | okay | 03:53 |
| LjL | what i'm thinking though is that a virus like SARS-COV-2 could have escaped from a lab due to circumstances that were not fraud or even maybe gross negligence | 03:54 |
| LjL | while performing gain-of-function research, or similar, that has legitimate uses | 03:54 |
| ryouma | maybe | 03:54 |
| ryouma | i'd like to know those legitimate uses other than the one you mentioned | 03:55 |
| LjL | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gain_of_function_research could use being more of a coherent article than "In year X, Y happened" | 03:56 |
| LjL | anyway... i figure one legitimate use is just the one i mentioned, but with other viruses: like, MERS is pretty deadly but doesn't spread easily, so let's see if it could easily enough acquire mutations that would let it spread easily, and if so, let us find out which ones they are likely to be, and pre-make a vaccine for it | 03:59 |
| LjL | or SARS (1) itself | 03:59 |
| ryouma | but surely bsl can be buttressed | 03:59 |
| LjL | i, uh, assume you somehow meant addressed | 04:00 |
| ryouma | standards improved | 04:00 |
| ryouma | and enforced | 04:00 |
| ryouma | but these days a garage can produce some stuff | 04:00 |
| ryouma | what about some race-partisan who decides to make a virus that he or he thinks will only attack members of a certain race? someday that might be an issue. | 04:01 |
| LjL | i think i'll be arguably lucky if i get to see that day | 04:04 |
| ketas | LjL: my 1944-year born mother will get nice biontech vaccine soon | 04:12 |
| ketas | :P | 04:12 |
| LjL | about time, ketas | 04:12 |
| LjL | my dad is about that age, but he's gotten AZ, and so has my mom, oh well :( | 04:12 |
| LjL | hopefully it's still a lot better than nothing | 04:12 |
| ketas | how old was LjL | 04:14 |
| LjL | me? i'm not getting the vaccine any time soon, i'm in my 30s | 04:14 |
| ketas | of course i'm in like in the last line for vaccines | 04:14 |
| ketas | i checked the order | 04:14 |
| ketas | the late LjL | 04:16 |
| LjL | in theory they want to be done with the first short for most of the population by July | 04:17 |
| LjL | i have my doubts about the feasibility of that | 04:17 |
| ketas | you could hope some people dying so you could get it faster | 04:19 |
| LjL | eep | 04:21 |
| LjL | i hope indians get it faster than us right now | 04:21 |
| LjL | it looks... i don't know how many new meanings one can give to the word "bad" | 04:21 |
| ketas | you can always make bad worse | 04:22 |
| ketas | it's the wonder of human brain | 04:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: At least 27 dead in fire at Baghdad hospital for Covid-19 patients → https://is.gd/ov8VPc | 04:33 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +3934 cases (now 972041), +36 deaths (now 23990) since 23 hours ago | 05:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Modi is India's Trump. His lies and denials about coronavirus caused a catastrophic new wave of covid. Now India is running out of oxygen, and thousands are dying each day in the world's worst coronavirus wave → https://is.gd/YLZEXe | 05:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from This Week In Virology: TWiV 748: SARS-CoV-2 gets a sense of humoral: A TWiV trio explains a method for sequencing single genomes of SARS-CoV-2 and its use to explore in-host evolution drive by antibody responses, and incidence of cerebral venous thrombosis in COVID-19 patients and vaccine recipients. → https://is.gd/dhuCBT | 06:15 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +99 deaths (now 81604) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +50 deaths (now 23927) since 23 hours ago | 06:41 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +21058 cases (now 5.5 million), +99 deaths (now 102793) since 9 hours ago — Lombardy, Italy: +2313 cases (now 793450), +49 deaths (now 32618) since a day ago — Netherlands: +4042 cases (now 1.5 million), +11 deaths (now 17135) since 4 hours ago — Anguilla, United Kingdom: +29 cases (now 58) since 2 days ago | 07:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: China reiterates its Covid aid offer; India notes positive tenor | India News - Times of India → https://is.gd/KdPmiQ | 07:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: What do women want? For men to get COVID vaccines → https://is.gd/NqtV2F | 07:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: COVID-19: India records 349,691 new infections in another daily global record | World News → https://is.gd/SwcgDa | 08:37 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Thailand: +2438 cases (now 55460), +11 deaths (now 140) since 21 hours ago | 08:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: SaNOtize's Nasal Spray Treatment For Covid-19 Highly Effective, Viral Load Reduces By 95% In 24 Hours: Phase-2 Trials → https://is.gd/xFjUrm | 08:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | April 25, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://is.gd/nw2pi2 | 09:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: India Covid: Patients dying without oxygen amid Delhi surge → https://is.gd/C9elC2 | 09:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Health: How to help children cope with COVID-19 stress → https://is.gd/jblOiT | 09:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: A nun and a doctor, she’s one of Europe’s long-standing vaccine skeptics → https://is.gd/mOJsVZ | 10:08 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Lakshadweep, India: +157 cases (now 1962) since 23 hours ago | 10:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: How scientists at Wuhan lab helped Chinese army in secret project to find animal viruses → https://is.gd/Q1VhXy | 11:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Iraq Covid hospital fire: 82 dead after 'oxygen tank explodes' → https://is.gd/2mzo8u | 12:20 |
| CoronaBot | /r/covid19: COVID-19 vaccine coverage in health-care workers in England and effectiveness of BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine against infection (SIREN): a prospective, multicentre, cohort study (80 votes) | https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00790-X/fulltext | https://redd.it/mxictf | 12:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from Emma Hodcroft: @firefoxx66: Incredibly - another portrait on TV this weekend, this time by @RTSinfo 🇨🇭! (in French)Filmed a few weeks ago, I didn't know when this one might come out, but am honoured to be featured! A great overview of my work & the importance of [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/A6ZcRi | 13:00 |
| CoronaBot | /r/covid19: COVID-19 pathophysiology may be driven by an imbalance in the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (80 votes) | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22713-z | https://redd.it/mxrspp | 13:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: 50,000 fans attend massive rock concert in COVID-free New Zealand → https://is.gd/xRmXf7 | 13:51 |
| CoronaBot | /r/covid19: Elevated biomarker for blood vessel damage found in all children with SARS-CoV-2 (80 votes) | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/12/201208121044.htm | https://redd.it/my5k1u | 14:24 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Laos: +76 cases (now 323) since 23 hours ago | 14:33 |
| hirogen | man you can't deny that the First world still reigns over the 3rd world - Def blam India's Far right Hindu party for this mess for sure.. no surprise there | 14:37 |
| hirogen | I hate to say it but India is not the most hygenic of places especially these religious folks they wake up and go outside and spit , make those grunting sounds | 14:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Germany faces lockdown until June as curbs fail to push down cases → https://is.gd/q0YI2C | 15:13 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Trasmissione del PNRR al Parlamento ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/pnrr/16718 ) | 15:54 | |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +74 deaths (now 81631) since 23 hours ago | 16:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from Politico: Airlines: Von der Leyen: EU preparing ‘rapid’ assistance to COVID-hit India → https://is.gd/bgaf4v | 17:07 |
| CoronaBot | /r/coronavirus: India asks Twitter to remove tweets critical of its COVID-19 handling as cases hit new world high (10139 votes) | https://www.theage.com.au/world/asia/india-asks-twitter-to-remove-tweets-critical-of-its-covid-19-handling-as-cases-hit-new-world-high-20210425-p57m55.html | https://redd.it/mxy329 | 17:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Health: Throat spray, oral drug for malaria-arthritis effective in reducing spread of COVID-19: Singapore study → https://is.gd/hBahLH | 17:27 |
| LjL | Grr. They announced today that we are out of AstraZeneca so even people over 60 will be vaccinated with Pfizer or Moderna now. Just in time for my parents to have fallen into the brief AZ window, and they're older than most of the people who're going to be vaccinated now. | 17:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: US promises ‘additional support’ for India as the country is ravaged by coronavirus outbreak → https://is.gd/Fc73Vz | 17:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: How many cases in your area?: Explore the data on coronavirus in the UK and find out how many cases there are in your area. → https://is.gd/8rLBbe | 18:08 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +7222 cases (now 1.2 million), +40 deaths (now 23931) since 23 hours ago | 18:16 |
| de-facto | lol the stupid bot in #india banned me because i posted https://www.covid19india.org/ and it said i would advertise webpages because the url began with www | 18:24 |
| de-facto | so remember: never ever post anything world wide web related in #india | 18:25 |
| de-facto | maybe next time i will post a recipe: three times w then a dot then ... | 18:27 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: "Americans First": US Defends Export Ban On Covid Vaccine Raw Materials To India → https://is.gd/yE2rGT | 18:29 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +13157 cases (now 4.0 million), +217 deaths (now 119238) since 23 hours ago | 18:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from Derek Lowe: @michael_gilman: RT by @Dereklowe: PCR is so deeply embedded in our lives now, thanks to COVID tests. In the lab, of course, it's now purely plug-and-play. So let's take a moment to appreciate how critical and kick-ass was Brock's discovery of thermostable enzymes.https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/22/science/thomas-brock-dead.html → https://is.gd/YRqmFZ | 18:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: UK to send oxygen and ventilators to India as Covid crisis deepens | India | The Guardian → https://is.gd/pXr5Tz | 18:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from Emma Hodcroft: @firefoxx66: R to @firefoxx66: And just to be crystal clear - this may be affecting Denmark now but I think it could happen anywhere that hasn't prepared for this explicitly. For a global pandemic we need a global view - that's why sharing sequences even outside of countries is critical. → https://is.gd/sOyPFd | 19:00 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: PNRR, Comunicazioni del Presidente Draghi in Parlamento ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/pnrr-comunicazioni-del-presidente-draghi-parlamento/16719 ) | 19:44 | |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: The pandemic has taken a major toll on our sex lives. Research conducted in Turkey, Italy, India and the US in 2020 all points to the decline in sex with partners as well as solo acts, directly attributed to lockdown. → https://is.gd/9aT1S7 | 19:51 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +1 deaths (now 10595) since 17 hours ago | 20:02 |
| LjL | de-facto, i've been permanently banned from r/covid19 for saying that i could get carrageenan spray OTC | 20:20 |
| LjL | so at least your ban for posting a link was temporary! | 20:21 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +121 deaths (now 102815) since 22 hours ago — Germany: +59 deaths (now 81641) since 22 hours ago | 20:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR: Iraqi Leader Orders Investigation Of Baghdad Hospital Fire That Killed More Than 80: A massive fire at a hospital dedicated to COVID-19 patients also left more than 100 people injured. Amid calls for action by international organizations, the prime minister ordered an investigation. → https://is.gd/uVLXln | 20:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: USA to ship immediate aid to India, allows for material to support Covishield vaccine in India → https://is.gd/lTmZ9B | 21:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: 'Complete massacre of data': Experts flag undercounting of India's COVID-19 deaths in second wave → https://is.gd/8EH1Zi | 21:13 |
| de-facto | yes indeed, it was a mistake, was invited back | 21:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: New Delhi extends coronavirus lockdown as India cases hit new record: India's capital New Delhi on Sunday extended its lockdown, as the country's COVID-19 crisis grew with infections and deaths hitting record highs. → https://is.gd/fsuX0N | 21:44 |
| LjL | Indian courts are sometimes quite bold <Brainstorm> New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Delhi high court: Will hang anyone blocking oxygen supply → https://is.gd/h3pxeb | 22:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: COVID-19: People left to beg and barter for air as India's coronavirus crisis becomes a frantic hunt for oxygen → https://is.gd/kq7NCJ | 22:46 |
| LjL | de-facto, i was looking at a few European curves since i haven't really followed cases closely lately... isn't it peculiar how Poland and Hungary "snap" together? http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=France;Turkey;Italy;Spain;Poland;Hungary&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&leftTrim=300 | 22:50 |
| de-facto | interesting effect indeed | 22:55 |
| de-facto | i dont understand the cause of it though | 22:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: India's richest people are fleeing on private jets as the country hits almost 350,000 COVID-19 infections in another daily global record → https://is.gd/uvpNIl | 23:16 |
| Arsanerit | Poland and Hungary are not even neighbours. | 23:18 |
| de-facto | http://metrics.covid19-analysis.org/ | 23:19 |
| de-facto | "Visualizing COVID-19 Spread Metrics" | 23:19 |
| de-facto | i dont like how bad Germany looks compared to the rest of Europe | 23:19 |
| de-facto | but what to expect, government pretty much lost control over Germany | 23:20 |
| Arsanerit | Germany is doing poorly, but is it doing worse than its neighbours? | 23:21 |
| Arsanerit | Sweden R=0.27? Can that be true? | 23:22 |
| de-facto | we have R>1 for months already and that with high incidence | 23:22 |
| de-facto | in Germany i mean | 23:23 |
| Arsanerit | Yes, but the same source indicates R=0.27 for Sweden and Luxembourg, which I find hard to believe. I'm not questioning Germany is doing poorly, I'm questioning that surrounding countries are doing much better. | 23:24 |
| de-facto | yes that indeed is strange, R=0.27 is unrealistic | 23:26 |
| Arsanerit | That makes me wonder if the R=0.9 for other countries is true. Do Poland or Czechia have more serious lockdowns than Germany or Netherlands? | 23:27 |
| de-facto | Germany R=1.09 coincides with my own calculations though | 23:28 |
| Arsanerit | When I try to plot Rt over time for selected locations Germany, Sweden, Poland, Czechia, I get insufficient data. | 23:28 |
| de-facto | http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=EU;France;Italy;Spain;Germany;Poland;Czechia;Netherlands;Belgium;Switzerland;Austria;Denmark;Luxembourg&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&miscType=Reff | 23:31 |
| Arsanerit | And Hungary may have a lower Rt suggesting they go in the right direction (is it the vaccines or do they have a more seriousl lockdown?), they still have a very high death rate according to this source. So it also depends on what one compares. To first go sky high and then go down (but reopening too early), is that better than doing not-quite-enough with the German Dauerlockdown...? | 23:31 |
| de-facto | indeed it seems Germany is in the minority of EU countries with having rising daily new infections over such long period | 23:31 |
| de-facto | somehow our neighbors perform better with containment | 23:32 |
| Arsanerit | I'm trying to see how I zoom in on the R-graph in the offloop link | 23:32 |
| LjL | de-facto, many of your neighbors had much higher spikes, that then dwindled down | 23:33 |
| LjL | i think we've seen this effect a lot | 23:33 |
| LjL | and it might be hasty to attribute it to just better containment | 23:33 |
| LjL | it's hard to attribute it to immunity as well, admittedly | 23:33 |
| de-facto | Arsanerit, you can double click on a graph and then use mousewheel zoom on axes and drag and drop | 23:34 |
| LjL | Italy for example has had a spike but not as big as, say, France... and now the spike went down but not as convincingly as France. so it's in an intermediate situation, closer to Germany | 23:34 |
| Arsanerit | Netherlands seems to have similar pattern to Germany | 23:34 |
| de-facto | LjL, yes but all countries with a peak managed to bring it down again with a lockdown or such | 23:34 |
| de-facto | we prevented a sharp peak and slowly climb with daily incidence over months | 23:35 |
| LjL | it went down. whether the lockdowns managed it, honestly, at this point in Italy, i have some doubts | 23:35 |
| Arsanerit | We haven't seen the situation like Ireland had in January. | 23:35 |
| Arsanerit | Can we compare actual levels of mobility between countries? | 23:35 |
| Arsanerit | I'm told Google has mobility data. | 23:35 |
| LjL | also, Sweden's data suck, data-wise, at least when i look at Covidly's data, so maybe that explains unrealistic R: simply having bad data full of artifacts | 23:36 |
| de-facto | how was that saying? if you put a frog in hot water it will jump out but if the temperature is raised slowly it will not notice | 23:36 |
| LjL | just look at this http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Sweden;Denmark;Norway;Finland&cumulative=no&smooth=yes | 23:36 |
| LjL | de-facto, yeah except in this case even if the frog jumps out it usually gets pretty burned, so i'm not sure which one is better | 23:36 |
| Arsanerit | And how do "lockdown" measures compare between countries? I can barely keep track of what applies in Germany, let alone internationally. Do other countries have mandatory home office or business closures? If not, then why is their R lower than in Germany? | 23:36 |
| LjL | Arsanerit, in Italy i can't answer that comprehensively because it varies by region... but with the current system, remote working is never *mandatory*, just recommended, and closures are only of business that serve customers | 23:37 |
| de-facto | I dont even know if we currently have any commonly agreed upon goal in Germany | 23:37 |
| Arsanerit | I have the impression that the German strategy appears to be (if there is any strategy) to be OK with R between 1 and 1.1 and try to vaccinate everybody before a rate of R=1.07 overwhelms hospitals and mortuaries. | 23:37 |
| Arsanerit | LjL: That sounds similar to Germany. | 23:38 |
| LjL | (meaning shops, restaurants, etc... in "red regions", only shops deemed essential stay open) | 23:38 |
| LjL | Arsanerit, it all kind of sounds similar in many places but then there's a lot of devil in the detail | 23:38 |
| Arsanerit | With schools they have now established a case rate of 165 as the boundary for open with restrictions vs. closed. | 23:38 |
| LjL | another question is schools. we just reopened schools almost fully | 23:39 |
| Arsanerit | Here they close schools when case rate rises above 165. Where I live case rate is 160. I'm almost hoping for case rates to rise so that necessary measures are taken :-/ | 23:39 |
| spunk | and it turns out that pupil spreading hard | 23:39 |
| de-facto | How can people assume any progress in a federal system when there is not even a common goal? of course federal states will choose their own goal and compete in opening and circumventing containment with some special tricks to circumvent the law | 23:39 |
| LjL | all in all my very personal opinion is that the virus is doing things with the curve that we try to explain by the measures we take but in reality are more complicated than that and work in ways we aren't fully understanding | 23:40 |
| Arsanerit | At the beginning of the year they had a target case rate of 35, when they couldn't reach that they simply roose the goal. | 23:40 |
| de-facto | yeah what have those numbers in common? 35, 50, 100, 165, 200, ... | 23:40 |
| de-facto | answer: they were chosen by government at certain times to only affect a minority with containment, hence they are strictly rising monotonically | 23:41 |
| Arsanerit | The zero covid strategy is not going to be implemented. Mandatory home office, no. Closure of non-customer serving business/industry, no. France prohibits (?) going more than 10 km from home without a good reason, does that work? Where in Europe are currently /actual/ stay-at-home orders including during day time? | 23:42 |
| Arsanerit | My kreis website helpfully states "Nach dem Robert Koch-Institut gelten aktuell im Kreis Offenbach die Regelungen für den Schwellenwert unter 150 gemäß der bundesweiten Notbremse!" without stating what those Regelungen are. | 23:43 |
| Arsanerit | Ah, doch, it states further down. | 23:43 |
| de-facto | As long as NO-COVID (e.g. >10/100k weekly infection) is not the predecessor ZERO-COVID ( 0 infections if unknown origin) the pathogen will stay as cause for the economic problems, its not containment its the presence of the pathogen that causes the problems | 23:44 |
| Arsanerit | Germany has more or less managed the past 3 months, maybe they hope to manage another 3 months while strongly increasing vaccination rate, thus reducing hospitalisations and hopefully long covid. | 23:46 |
| de-facto | stabilizing at some weekly incidence e.g. 100/100k is insane, it will ensure that we will need to have lockdowns forever, that cant be a uniting but only a dividing goal | 23:46 |
| de-facto | we urgently need a common goal that unites efforts, and it only can be to get rid of the problem longterm | 23:47 |
| spunk | Bundesnotbremse! so geil... Wir schaffen das! | 23:47 |
| Arsanerit | Forever, or until vaccination? | 23:47 |
| de-facto | Forever | 23:47 |
| rpifan | no | 23:47 |
| rpifan | wir schaffen das nicht | 23:47 |
| Arsanerit | Why? Won't vaccination mean that remaining infections are unlikely to lead to serious disease? | 23:47 |
| de-facto | if we keep breeding evasive mutants vaccinations will not safe us from them | 23:47 |
| de-facto | best case then would be that we need vaccinations every few months to keep it up-to-date with the raise of the mutants in order to ensure mitigation of disease severeness for the majority of infecitons | 23:49 |
| de-facto | we really have to stop bruteforcing immunity by tolerating breeding of new mutants, imho ZERO-COVID is the ONLY sane strategy | 23:50 |
| Arsanerit | I thought effect of vaccination lasted longer than that, and that even if some mutations partly escape vaccination, vaccination is still useful. | 23:50 |
| rpifan | while it might seem a bit extreme | 23:50 |
| Arsanerit | I see zero chance politically of the EU implementing zero covid, and I don't see that it can work in a non-island EU country. | 23:50 |
| de-facto | oh it is useful of course | 23:51 |
| rpifan | the best solution really is to for ppl to just get exposure | 23:51 |
| rpifan | we cant vaccinate fast enough | 23:51 |
| rpifan | on a global scale | 23:51 |
| Arsanerit | BioNTech has increased its production capacity at an impressive rate. | 23:51 |
| de-facto | let me ask one question: if they really found P.1 to be twice as reproductive as previous variants, what efficiency would vaccinations need to have to reach group immunity? | 23:51 |
| Arsanerit | Suppose that, say, Hessen would implement zero covid. Or even all of Germany. Would Germany then need to close its borders as rigorously as Australia? How would that even work? Thailand tried and failed and Germany has a lot more through-traffic. | 23:52 |
| Arsanerit | That's why the zero covid group proposes it should happen Europe-wide, which makes sense scientifically, but I don't see it happen politically. | 23:53 |
| rpifan | Arsanerit, speaking of which | 23:53 |
| rpifan | i just crossed the border | 23:53 |
| rpifan | from france to germany | 23:53 |
| rpifan | on a train | 23:53 |
| rpifan | the police | 23:53 |
| Arsanerit | UK, ROI, Iceland can probably do it, but Germany? | 23:53 |
| rpifan | checked Ids but thats it | 23:53 |
| rpifan | they didnt care about the covid results | 23:53 |
| Arsanerit | rpifan: Could you wait with pressing <Enter> until you finish your sentence? | 23:53 |
| rpifan | i was hungry | 23:53 |
| Arsanerit | My colleague has just been on vacation to the Canary Isles. I wonder if he's going to respect the rules to quarantine. | 23:54 |
| Arsanerit | Border closures could be stronger than they are, but I don't see how Germany can ever close its borders as rigorously as Australia has. | 23:54 |
| Arsanerit | de-facto: Ask a virologist, but I suppose that if we need 70% before that would mean 85% with a variant that reproduces at twice the rate? | 23:55 |
| LjL | Arsanerit, "Where in Europe are currently /actual/ stay-at-home orders including during day time?" ← Italy, in the red regions. in 5 minutes those are going to be very few, but until a couple of weeks ago, i was in one | 23:55 |
| LjL | the "stay at home" orders here are usually exclusive of a number of things (work, essential needs) | 23:55 |
| Arsanerit | BUT, someone who has full vaccination from, say, the BioNTech vaccine, and gets infected with the P.1 variant; they're still less likely to get sick? Vaccination isn't all or nothing? | 23:56 |
| de-facto | Assuming R0 (1 - v e) == 1 with an vaccine efficacy v = 0.9 we would need a portion of vaccinated v = (R0 - 1) / (e R0) to reach herd immunity (R~1 in a naive unaware population without containment measures) | 23:56 |
| Arsanerit | LjL: Ok, thanks for the info. | 23:56 |
| LjL | though i've got to say, during the current lockdown, as opposed to last year, the stay-at-home orders have been barely enforced even in the red regions. loads of people were just outside with no real expectation of the police questioning them. | 23:57 |
| Arsanerit | What is the aim? To stop people from gettign infected, or to stop people from getting seriously ill, hospitalised, die? | 23:57 |
| Arsanerit | Vaccines should have come sooner, but they are coming. | 23:59 |
| de-facto | So if we very conservatively assume R0(B.1) = 2.5 hence if P.1. would double that to R0(P.1) = 2*2.5 = 5.0 we would need to vaccinate v = (5 - 1) / (0.9 5) = 0.88 ~ 88% of population | 23:59 |
| Arsanerit | We could have rescued a lot of lives and reduced economic impacts with zero covid, but it's not happening here. Vaccinations will help. | 23:59 |
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