| Arsanerit | True; those infections were before the mutants were common, and probably involved the "classic" Wuhan version. | 00:01 |
|---|---|---|
| Arsanerit | goodnight | 00:01 |
| LjL | night | 00:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Harris tells UN body it's time to prepare for next pandemic → https://is.gd/MLboSe | 00:12 |
| Chimeroo | Why did India have such a surge? | 00:18 |
| LjL | everyone has their own ideas on that | 00:18 |
| LjL | it may be a combination of factors | 00:18 |
| LjL | i think more aggressive variants are most likely a primary factor | 00:18 |
| de-facto | i think its the behavior of the people allowing for transmission | 00:19 |
| de-facto | even if the variants are more aggressive, proper distancing would prevent their transmission | 00:20 |
| LjL | try proper distancing in Mumbai or Kolkata | 00:21 |
| de-facto | yet then looking at video reports, people standing together crowded, if wearing masks only those made from cotton, government tolerating people participating in large religious gatherings without masks or distancing, etc | 00:21 |
| de-facto | for me that makes it obvious that peoples behavior does not reflect the current need to prevent transmission scenarios | 00:22 |
| de-facto | LjL, yes i know and that is quite scary | 00:22 |
| de-facto | plus large household sizes, elderly living with younger under same roof etc | 00:23 |
| LjL | de-facto, i think to reach the conclusion you're reaching, you'd need to have seen videos of *previous* months where you could see a clear difference: people distancing, wearing serious masks, no religious gatherings, etc | 00:23 |
| LjL | i honestly don't know how much this was the case | 00:23 |
| LjL | but i think to say that it's people's behavior, you need to be able to compare previous with current behavior | 00:23 |
| de-facto | well for an infection two things would have to come together, someone carrying to pathogen and a contact allowing for transmission | 00:25 |
| de-facto | afaik there were restrictions in place, how else could they have brought down their first wave, yet then they opened and not too much happened at first, maybe because there was not enough pathogen carriers to really seed enough infection chains | 00:27 |
| chile09[m] | The virus can likely travel further than 6 feet | 00:28 |
| de-facto | yet at some point there is some threshold, some non-linear (self amplifying) effects begin to kick in and incidence explodes | 00:28 |
| chile09[m] | Try doubling that and then some | 00:28 |
| chile09[m] | And wear a medical grade N95 or N99 mask | 00:29 |
| de-facto | 6 feet is just meant to prevent most of the large droplets people spit from their mouth when they are talking etc | 00:29 |
| LjL | chile09[m], i'd call "likely" an understatement at this point | 00:29 |
| chile09[m] | I'm being diplomatic with my words | 00:29 |
| de-facto | but without much air exchange the very small droplets are behaving like smoke, like a solution in air a so called aerosol (air-solution), and of course one could smell smoke for more than 6 feet, especially indoors in closed rooms | 00:30 |
| de-facto | so growing with exposure time, one would inhale more and more of such infectious aerosol particles, surely can be reduced by filters such as masks, but the contamination dose correlates to infection probability | 00:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Hospitalized shift workers up to 3 times more likely to be COVID-19 positive: People who work shifts appear to be significantly more likely to end up in hospital with COVID-19 than people who have regular work patterns, suggests research published online in the journal Thorax. → https://is.gd/kOFXuX | 00:32 |
| de-facto | and for higher contamination dose, way above infection threshold the amount of contamination with the pathogen aerosol particles even can correlate with later disease severity because higher contamination dose give the pathogen an advantage with its exponential replication on cellular level competing with the immune response | 00:33 |
| de-facto | its basically a race condition in time, pathogen reproduction vs rise of immune response, at least at the beginning phase, and thereby might determine if its able to reach deep into the lungs where it really can replicate fast | 00:34 |
| LjL | https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/mywxf0/vaccine_apartheid_us_under_fire_for_sitting_on/gvxzfho/ turns out i don't actually have a source on hand, it's just like, if it was 70% initially, it can't *still* be 70% even though we have clearly more infectious variants. but does anyone happen to have an actual decent source to back this? (not that an article for the layman on mayo clinic is such a decent source) | 01:18 |
| de-facto | source for what? | 01:23 |
| de-facto | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity#Theoretical_basis | 01:26 |
| de-facto | ah wikipedia is not a proper source i guess, it needs to be a published paper | 01:27 |
| de-facto | Given a certain base reproduction (in a naive unaware population) R0 the reproduction would become endemic for R0 ( 1 - v e ) = 1 for a portion of vaccinated population v = (R0 - 1) / (e R0) with a certain efficacy e of a vaccine to prevent transmission (hence less than efficacy to prevent symptomatic infection) | 01:34 |
| de-facto | so given a VoC that dominates its ancestors in prevalence by having an increased base reproduction R0 directly inherits to the required portion of vaccinated population that would be needed for reaching endemic state (herd immunity) | 01:37 |
| de-facto | there are all kinds of papers estimating ratios of base reproduction for all the current VoCs to its ancestors, e.g. B.1 (the D614G) | 01:38 |
| de-facto | i think something like R0(B.1.1.7) ~ 1.5 * R0(B.1) is plausible (at least compatible with my own calculations from the data i have seen from RKI in Germany) | 01:39 |
| de-facto | hence that would mean for reaching endemic with B.1.1.7 we would need to vaccinate v = (R0(B.1.1.7) - 1) / (e R0(B.1.1.7) = (1.5 R0(B.1) - 1) / ( e 1.5 R0(B.1)) = (R0(B.1) - 1/1.5) / ( e R0(B.1)) | 01:43 |
| de-facto | hence we would need (R0(B.1) - 1) / (R0(B.1) - 1/1.5) times as many vaccinations for reaching the same endemic with B.1.1.7 as we would reach with B.1 before if R(B.1.1.7) = 1.5 R(B.1) holds | 01:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from Derek Lowe: @hildabast: RT by @Dereklowe: Anvisa (Brazil's drug regulator) has just announced it has denied the request to import Sputnik V vaccine because of absence of data & issues with the development of the vaccine, including vax quality. https://g1.globo.com/bemestar/vacina/ao-vivo/reuniao-anvisa-vacina.ghtml Meeting still streaming [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/yBTabc | 01:55 |
| de-facto | that is assuming the vaccine efficacy e is the same, for immuno-evasive VoCs (e.g. containing E484K et al like B.1.351 et al) there would be an additional factor of e(ancestor) / e(VoC) representing the amount of relative evasion | 01:56 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +43544 cases (now 3.3 million), +695 deaths (now 82344) since 23 hours ago | 02:17 |
| LjL | de-facto, they need a "source" as in some expert or a paper that explicitly says "it's probably around 90% now with variants" :P just trying to convince them with maths or even simply logic is not the way reddit works unfortunately... because like i said, you don't even need maths to realize it must be higher than 70%: if it was 70% with the Wuhan variant, then certainly it has to be higher now since the R is also higher | 02:18 |
| LjL | de-facto, maybe forget about the reddit person and riddle me this: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.22.21255913v1 do you understand what this important UK abstract is actually saying? are they saying both vaccines have 65% efficacy after one shot? and also, isn't it being a bit sly in saying that the benefits apply to both vaccines, when in fact, they only tested for benefits after the 2nd shot with Pfizer (not enough people to test AZ)? and | 02:20 |
| LjL | anyway, if the benefits after two shots are 70% with Pfizer... woah, that's a lot lower than 95%, and also different from the Scottish study i think | 02:20 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +3577 cases (now 1.5 million), +6 deaths (now 17147) since 21 hours ago — France: +7605 cases (now 5.5 million) since 21 hours ago — United Kingdom: +1469 cases (now 4.4 million), +6 deaths (now 127558) since 21 hours ago | 02:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Biden admin will share millions of AstraZeneca vaccine doses worldwide → https://is.gd/8idzLo | 02:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from Derek Lowe: @Dereklowe: There's an endless series of Pandemic Takes That Haven't Aged Well. Here's a January version of the "India's population mostly has immunity by now" view, adding that vaccinating recovered patients would be unethical [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/GGfnob | 03:06 |
| N1000_ | Do we really know will there be some vaccine consequences in say 1 or 2 years... this is the first mRNA vaccine given to humans ever | 03:48 |
| LjL | it's also the second adenovirus vaccine | 03:48 |
| LjL | no, we don't, it's physically impossible to "really" know something that hasn't happened yet, science doesn't have a crystal ball | 03:48 |
| N1000_ | There's simply no sufficient timeframe to test it properly | 03:48 |
| LjL | but there are decent reasons to think there's no expectation of adverse effects showing up so late | 03:49 |
| LjL | it's mRNA, it's making a protein, then the mRNA disappear, and all that remains is the immune activity against that protein | 03:49 |
| N1000_ | as we know it requires around 10 years to full grasp all effects and what it really does | 03:49 |
| LjL | if there's any bad effects to immune activity against that protein, well, that protein is the same as the one in the virus | 03:49 |
| LjL | considering what's going on in India and Brazil and other places, without immunization we're all going to get the virus at some point or another, which means, in the best of cases, an immune reaction to that protein | 03:50 |
| LjL | "as we know"? I was not aware of it. why the 10 year timeframe in particular? | 03:50 |
| LjL | after 10 years we won't know about any effects that only occur after 20 years | 03:50 |
| N1000_ | What protein, spike protein? | 03:50 |
| N1000_ | Alright, so, the vaccine triggers replication of spike protein, to train the system to recognize it and do action, right? | 03:51 |
| LjL | more or less, although "triggering replication" sounds like the protein goes ahead to replicate itself | 03:52 |
| N1000_ | "It prompts cells to make a SARS-CoV-2 protein that trains the immune system to recognize the virus" | 03:52 |
| LjL | what happens is that one copy of the mRNA creates one protein (at most), that's it | 03:52 |
| LjL | yes | 03:52 |
| N1000_ | Yep, right | 03:52 |
| LjL | adenovirus-based vaccines do the same thing, except using a modified adenovirus with DNA | 03:53 |
| LjL | which i think makes things a bit more complicated | 03:53 |
| LjL | you also have the immune reaction to the adenovirus | 03:53 |
| N1000_ | What i'm concerned here is this: how can we know that producing spike proteins they won't be turned into, let's say prions in some time frame | 03:53 |
| N1000_ | Spike protein is not really some great stuff to have in the system, isn't it | 03:54 |
| LjL | well it's nothing like a prion, i guess if that's a possibility, it's in the same realm of possibilities as other random proteins in our body turning into prions | 03:54 |
| LjL | it doesn't stay in the system for long though, there is an immune reaction mounted to it | 03:55 |
| N1000_ | How do you know? | 03:55 |
| N1000_ | Any references to that claim? | 03:55 |
| LjL | no | 03:55 |
| LjL | just logic, and also those proteins won't be in the body after 10 years | 03:56 |
| N1000_ | So it's a healthy guess | 03:56 |
| LjL | if they're turning into prions they're doing it quickly | 03:56 |
| N1000_ | Like guess "with both feets on the ground" using logic | 03:56 |
| N1000_ | ALright | 03:56 |
| LjL | well it's always hard to prove a negative | 03:57 |
| N1000_ | I tend to use the same logic, but reading more about it only gives more questions than answers | 03:57 |
| LjL | but it's sort of easy to give circumstantial evidence for it | 03:57 |
| N1000_ | Yep until you see murphy's law into action | 03:57 |
| N1000_ | Happened too many times | 03:58 |
| LjL | i'm personally not worried about mRNA vaccines posing an issue, but instead, i am at least a bit worried about adenovirus-based ones doing so | 03:58 |
| LjL | i wonder why a lot of people put the spotlight on mRNA ones, and say "adenovirus ones are already tried and tested" | 03:58 |
| LjL | adenovirus ones have only been used in humans for Ebola | 03:58 |
| N1000_ | Yep, i agree | 03:58 |
| LjL | Ebola is quite a different beast that COVID, they've vaccinated many fewer people with it, and often in countries where follow-up is difficult | 03:58 |
| LjL | s/that/from/ | 03:59 |
| N1000_ | And seems it works differently on different genotypes, persons | 03:59 |
| LjL | but anyway, if you're worried about the S-protein itself, well, both types of vaccines (and also the third type of the "protein" kind, i.e. Novavax) end up with S-proteins in your body | 03:59 |
| N1000_ | One can benefit yet one can get a blood clots or fibrosis or shit | 03:59 |
| LjL | i'm not too worried about the S-protein itself, partly because i am convinced that if i don't get a vaccine, it's only a matter of time before i get the S-protein in my body due to getting COVID | 04:00 |
| N1000_ | Novavax is the last one to come | 04:00 |
| N1000_ | I earned like 800% on nvax few months ago btw | 04:00 |
| LjL | i know someone else who Speculated on it | 04:01 |
| LjL | i don't know how successful Novavax will be, it's "just" the S-protein itself, but they are a small company and they need to produce it at scale | 04:01 |
| LjL | i don't know the logistic details of producing these vaccines almost at all, but i think if it were so easy to produce just the S-protein itself, maybe they wouldn't have bothered for decades with figuring out how to deliver mRNA into cells intact | 04:01 |
| LjL | there are also other COVID vaccines that are *not* based on the S-protein, by the way. but they are not used in "the west" at this time. | 04:02 |
| N1000_ | well, mtnb has very promising delivery system | 04:03 |
| N1000_ | matinas biopharma | 04:03 |
| N1000_ | i'm surprised nobody used it here | 04:03 |
| LjL | a delivery system for mRNA? | 04:04 |
| N1000_ | yes | 04:04 |
| N1000_ | "Regarding the envelope S protein, recombination or mutation in the gene of its RBD can occur to promote transmission between different hosts and lead to a higher fatality rate [81]. " | 04:04 |
| LjL | yes, the virus variants that have been "problematic" so far have involved the S-protein and often its RBD | 04:05 |
| LjL | which is also a bit of a problem for S-protein based vaccine: if the S-protein mutates enough in the wild virus, the vaccine may not longer work | 04:05 |
| LjL | so Moderna is already in a trial for a variant-optimized vaccine | 04:05 |
| LjL | and others have announced similar | 04:06 |
| LjL | with vaccines based on the whole virus (inactivated or attenuated), i guess you'd produce antibodies to more stuff, and in theory mutations could have less of an effect | 04:06 |
| LjL | but so far, this type of vaccines haven't seemed to be very effective... China uses them, and they're on the 50% ballpark | 04:06 |
| LjL | India is also developing i think one inactivated and one attenuated, in fact i think one is already being distributed | 04:07 |
| LjL | i'm pretty sure India should use whatever they can get their hands on at this time | 04:07 |
| N1000_ | Haha yes | 04:12 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +5127 cases (now 1.5 million), +10 deaths (now 17151) since 23 hours ago — France: +9093 cases (now 5.5 million) since 23 hours ago — Germany: +41493 cases (now 3.3 million) since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +1985 cases (now 4.4 million), +7 deaths (now 127559) since 23 hours ago | 04:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Boris Johnson denies saying he'd rather see 'bodies pile high in their thousands' than impose third lockdown → https://is.gd/KMyn7K | 04:49 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +1670 cases (now 976088), +41 deaths (now 24065) since 23 hours ago — New Zealand: +8 cases (now 2609) since 2 days ago | 05:35 |
| CoronaBot | /r/coronavirus: State of West Virginia announces plans to pay every resident age 16-35 to take the COVID vaccine (10190 votes) | https://www.wvnews.com/news/wvnews/west-virginia-gov-justice-state-will-use-covid-19-stimulus-funds-to-give-all-residents/article_3464b366-a6af-11eb-8cef-a3be246c97ac.html | https://redd.it/mz3ozl | 05:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Catastrophic rise of a new covid variant... India calls for international help to curb the surge of COVID deaths and infections. Meanwhile the MAGA dumbfucks still think it's all just a hoax. → https://is.gd/fuopH1 | 05:40 |
| kreyren | %cases india | 05:46 |
| Brainstorm | kreyren: In India, there have been 17.3 million confirmed cases (1.3% of the population) and 195123 deaths (1.1% of cases) as of 7 hours ago. 279.3 million tests were performed (6.2% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.2% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 1.3% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=India for time series data. | 05:46 |
| kreyren | wow | 05:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Health: ‘The next big one must be prevented’: The lessons the world can learn from epidemics that were contained → https://is.gd/7R1heQ | 06:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: India to receive first batch of Russia’s COVID-19 vaccine on May 1 – RDIF → https://is.gd/3yhmp4 | 06:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID19 Vaccine Tracker: Shannon McKearnan: Altimmune Inc: AdCOVID → https://is.gd/bnKPpU | 06:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Gilead announces steps to expand availability of remdesivir in India → https://is.gd/qGj8m9 | 06:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: India COVID-19 Crisis 'Beyond The Imagination': 'People Are Dying On Streets' → https://is.gd/gPeVC8 | 07:12 |
| CoronaBot | /r/covid19: Effectiveness of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infection in a cohort of healthcare personnel (80 votes) | https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciab361/6253721 | https://redd.it/mz3208 | 07:29 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Thailand: +2179 cases (now 59687), +15 deaths (now 163) since a day ago — Netherlands: +3108 cases (now 1.5 million), +7 deaths (now 17154) since 4 hours ago — Germany: +39133 cases (now 3.3 million) since 13 hours ago — France: +4466 cases (now 5.5 million), +192 deaths (now 103236) since 10 hours ago | 07:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: India’s new COVID-19 cases stay above 300,000, army called to help → https://is.gd/nrEAQ0 | 08:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: India's Covid-19 deaths will rise sharply till mid-May: US study → https://is.gd/O0h1dm | 08:33 |
| brigand | hi. how do you deal with partners that believe in conspiracy theories? | 08:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | April 27, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://is.gd/FwEI2c | 09:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: US to share 60 million AstraZeneca vaccine doses with world as they become available → https://is.gd/K90oOD | 09:14 |
| ingwer | %cases de | 09:41 |
| Brainstorm | ingwer: In Bangladesh, there have been 748628 confirmed cases (0.4% of the population) and 11150 deaths (1.5% of cases) as of 18 hours ago. 5.4 million tests were performed (13.9% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Bangladesh for time series data. | 09:41 |
| ingwer | %cases Germany | 09:41 |
| Brainstorm | ingwer: In Germany, there have been 3.3 million confirmed cases (4.0% of the population) and 82344 deaths (2.5% of cases) as of 2 hours ago. 54.1 million tests were performed (6.1% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.6% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 2.7% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data. | 09:41 |
| brigand | o | 09:42 |
| ingwer | %cases World | 09:45 |
| Brainstorm | ingwer: Sorry, World not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 09:45 |
| brigand | %cases worldwide | 09:49 |
| Brainstorm | brigand: Sorry, worldwide not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 09:49 |
| brigand | %cases all | 09:49 |
| Brainstorm | brigand: In Marshall Is., there have been 4 confirmed cases (0.0% of the population) and 0 deaths (0.0% of cases) as of 5 months ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Marshall%20Is. for time series data. | 09:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: 49 passengers on New Delhi-Hong Kong flight test positive for coronavirus → https://is.gd/EgObNG | 10:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from WHO Euro: This week we celebrate the role of vaccines in bringing us closer: European Immunization Week this year is like no other we have celebrated before. Today we are in the midst of an unprecedented COVID-19 vaccine rollout across the world that offers us optimism that “vaccines will bring us closer” again. This optimism is embedded [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/j6YlgN | 10:16 |
| ingwer | %case | 10:18 |
| ingwer | %case "New York" | 10:25 |
| ingwer | %case New York | 10:26 |
| ingwer | %case Berlin | 10:26 |
| ingwer | %cases Berlin | 10:26 |
| Brainstorm | ingwer: In Berlin, Germany, there have been 165108 confirmed cases (4.8% of the population) and 3193 deaths (1.9% of cases) as of 2 hours ago. Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.6% (assuming deaths/cases with ⅔ undetected) and less than 2.1% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Berlin for time series data. | 10:26 |
| ingwer | %cases "new york" | 10:27 |
| Brainstorm | ingwer: Sorry, "new york" not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 10:27 |
| ingwer | %cases "Yew York" | 10:27 |
| Brainstorm | ingwer: Sorry, "Yew York" not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 10:27 |
| ingwer | %cases "New York" | 10:27 |
| Brainstorm | ingwer: Sorry, "New York" not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 10:27 |
| ingwer | %cases New York | 10:27 |
| Brainstorm | ingwer: In New York, United States, there have been 2.0 million confirmed cases (10.3% of the population) and 52042 deaths (2.6% of cases) as of 2 hours ago. 6.9 million tests were performed (29.5% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=New%20York for time series data. | 10:27 |
| ingwer | %cases London | 10:28 |
| Brainstorm | ingwer: Sorry, London not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 10:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Door knocking works to get information to immigrant communities. Why aren’t more places using it for Covid-19?: Door-knocking campaigns are a crucial tool for contacting hard-to-reach populations — especially vulnerable immigrant communities that have been otherwise shut out from accessible Covid-19 vaccine information. So where [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/WRnlJe | 10:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Serial antigen testing may be an effective strategy for controlling infection during a nursing home SARS-CoV-2 outbreak: A prospective study found that serial antigen testing could be an effective strategy to support infection control in nursing homes having a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. While less sensitive than real-time reverse [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/DGGLsr | 10:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Western Australia premier says India’s Covid-19 tests inaccurate, unreliable as returning flyers test positive → https://is.gd/XQNQTn | 10:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: India Covid: First UK aid arrives as coronavirus deaths mount: Oxygen equipment lands in Delhi but far more is needed to tackle a devastating Covid wave nationwide. → https://is.gd/I1udeK | 11:08 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Somaliland: +2138 cases (now 3946), +181 deaths (now 247) since a month ago | 11:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Clare Gerada: A problem shared: The mental health of the NHS workforce was a cause for concern even before the pandemic. Workload is a major contributor, as is the feeling of not belonging. Doctors describe feeling more like... → https://is.gd/kOBnak | 11:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: New study shows COVID-19 can kill even months after recovery → https://is.gd/GpcG0r | 12:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid: Yogi orders crack down on hospitals flagging oxygen shortage → https://is.gd/QZZe8p | 12:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: India recorded a new global high for daily coronavirus cases for a fifth straight day. → https://is.gd/wWwksE | 12:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: India tries to censor Twitter critics as Covid spirals out of control → https://is.gd/Gw7sPS | 12:31 |
| pwr22 | !cases London | 12:35 |
| CovBot | In Hackney and City of London, United Kingdom there have been a total of 964 cases as of 2020-08-01 18:00:00 UTC. | 12:37 |
| pwr22 | !cases london | 12:37 |
| * CovBot < https://matrix.org/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/VgLSAcipncIgLfBArLhocSVg/message.txt > | 12:37 | |
| CovBot | In Hackney and City of London, United Kingdom there have been a total of 964 cases as of 2020-08-01 18:00:00 UTC. | 12:37 |
| pwr22 | Apologies for the spam | 12:37 |
| pwr22 | Hmm, looks like it doesn't know about "London" anymore | 12:38 |
| CoronaBot | /r/covid19: Do preservative and stray proteins cause rare COVID-19 vaccine side effect? (80 votes) | https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/04/do-preservative-and-stray-proteins-cause-rare-covid-19-vaccine-side-effect | https://redd.it/mzbfr5 | 13:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from ECDC: Data on the daily number of new reported COVID-19 cases and deaths by EU/EEA country: The downloadable data file is updated daily and contains the latest available public data on COVID-19. Each row/entry contains the number of new cases and deaths reported per day and per country in the EU/EEA. → https://is.gd/tBASDi | 13:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Health: COVID-19 vaccine: What cancer patients need to keep in mind → https://is.gd/UWadfv | 14:04 |
| diofantoz | %cases sweden | 14:11 |
| Brainstorm | diofantoz: In Sweden, there have been 938343 confirmed cases (9.1% of the population) and 13923 deaths (1.5% of cases) as of 3 days ago. 8.5 million tests were performed (11.1% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.2% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 1.8% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Sweden for time series data. | 14:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: India’s rich and famous flee country’s COVID-19 outbreak on private jets → https://is.gd/dZXbVi | 14:25 |
| kreyren | %cases india | 14:33 |
| Brainstorm | kreyren: In India, there have been 17.5 million confirmed cases (1.3% of the population) and 197894 deaths (1.1% of cases) as of 5 hours ago. 281.0 million tests were performed (6.2% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 0.2% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 1.3% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=India for time series data. | 14:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from Virological.org: Latest posts: @lgonzaga LUIZ GONZAGA PAULA DE ALMEIDA: Genomic Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: technical briefing → https://is.gd/cHiwlS | 14:35 |
| CoronaBot | /r/covid19: Anvisa does not approve the import of the Sputnik V vaccine (82 votes) | https://www.gov.br/anvisa/pt-br/assuntos/noticias-anvisa/2021/anvisa-nao-aprova-importacao-da-vacina-sputnik-v | https://redd.it/mzkvoo | 15:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from NIH Director's blog: Tracking the Evolution of a ‘Variant of Concern’ in Brazil: By last October, about three out of every four residents of Manaus, Brazil already had been infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 [1]. And yet, despite hopes of achieving “herd immunity” in this city of 2.2 million in the Amazon region, [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/RONhxZ | 15:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from Derek Lowe: @statnews: RT by @Dereklowe: Opinion: As daily vaccination rates settle and the country's progress toward herd immunity slows down, let's not rush to the same misguided conclusion that this is mostly about lack of vaccine confidence. https://buff.ly/32OIzJC → https://is.gd/kVKQuF | 15:17 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +2135 cases (now 653957) since a day ago | 15:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Australia suspends flights from COVID-19 hotspot India → https://is.gd/1dyhVE | 15:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from Scientific American: Nurses Are Also Scientists: A nurse tends to a COVID patient in the ICU. → https://is.gd/rXXIrf | 16:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Brazil health regulator rejects Russia’s Sputnik vaccine → https://is.gd/7lGX9O | 16:20 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Laos: +75 cases (now 511) since a day ago | 16:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR: West Virginia Will Pay Young People $100 To Get Vaccinated Against COVID-19: The Republican-led state will offer savings bonds to residents between the ages of 16 and 35 in an effort to tackle vaccine hesitancy among its younger population. → https://is.gd/DXHnSa | 16:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: As Covid sweeps India, experts say cases may be as high as half a billion. 30 times higher than reported. → https://is.gd/N9Bzig | 16:52 |
| de-facto | .tell LjL def reciprocal_ifr(age): return int(round(186209 / 2**(age / 5.74485))) # https://dx.doi.org/10.1007%2Fs10654-020-00698-1 | 17:10 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, I'll pass LjL your message when they are around. | 17:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Pandemic reverses years of rising life expectancy in Russia: Russians' life expectancy last year dropped for the first time in nearly 20 years, according to figures released on Tuesday, with officials blaming the COVID-19 pandemic for the decline. → https://is.gd/vjwUpz | 17:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from LitCovid: (news): Interim statement of the COVID-19 subcommittee of the WHO Global Advisory Committee on vaccine safety on AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine. → https://is.gd/q1HWcF | 17:23 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +42935 cases (now 3.3 million) since 22 hours ago | 17:42 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +8288 cases (now 1.2 million), +57 deaths (now 24027) since 23 hours ago | 18:06 |
| de-facto | yeah we have fucking just too many infections in Germany, but management just ignores it | 18:09 |
| de-facto | though not that many | 18:10 |
| de-facto | cross checking with RKI 43k daily is beyond reality, probably some delay effect | 18:11 |
| LjL | de-facto, Brainstorm is drunk though, you don't have +42000 cases, not even close | 18:11 |
| Brainstorm | LjL: At 2021-04-27 15:10:12 UTC, de-facto told you: def reciprocal_ifr(age): return int(round(186209 / 2**(age / 5.74485))) # https://dx.doi.org/10.1007%2Fs10654-020-00698-1 | 18:11 |
| de-facto | its more like 20.5k per day, still too many | 18:12 |
| Blankspace | Hi | 18:14 |
| de-facto | LjL, i thought that function might be useful for something like "%ifr 85" -> "For every 7 infections at age with SARS-CoV-2 there would be one COVID progression with fatal outcome on average." | 18:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from Virological.org: Latest posts: @rfgarry rfgarry: Mutations arising in SARS-CoV-2 spike on sustained human-to-human transmission and human-to-animal passage → https://is.gd/UqDzkK | 18:16 |
| de-facto | HI Blankspace | 18:16 |
| LjL | de-facto, is it about a variant in particular? | 18:16 |
| de-facto | well thats a good question, actually its the old paper from that DOI there | 18:16 |
| de-facto | i guess its B.1 then? not sure | 18:17 |
| de-facto | e.g. D614G | 18:17 |
| de-facto | the python function reflects their Log10(IFR) = -3.27 + 0.0542 * age | 18:19 |
| de-facto | just their equation reflects percentage and i give rounded infections per fatal outcome | 18:19 |
| de-facto | age in years | 18:20 |
| LjL | %ifr 80 | 18:20 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, For every 12 infections at that age, one would progress to a fatal outcome on average. | 18:20 |
| de-facto | yay awesome :)) | 18:21 |
| de-facto | %ifr 85 | 18:21 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, For every 7 infections at that age, one would progress to a fatal outcome on average. | 18:21 |
| LjL | de-facto, is this specifically an estimate of IFR and not CFR? | 18:21 |
| de-facto | ifr afaik, because cfr depends on testing too much | 18:22 |
| LjL | right but ifr is harder to estimate because what we have easily is cfr | 18:22 |
| LjL | but i see (skimming) they're basing it on an antibody study | 18:22 |
| LjL | so i guess that's how they're trying to look at all real infections | 18:23 |
| de-facto | yes exactly | 18:23 |
| de-facto | ifr 73 | 18:26 |
| de-facto | .ifr 73 | 18:26 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, For every 28 infections at that age, one would progress to a fatal outcome on average. | 18:26 |
| de-facto | quite glad my dad got vaccinated if i see such numbers | 18:26 |
| Blankspace | I wish I knew some doctor | 18:27 |
| de-facto | why? | 18:27 |
| de-facto | at most places you can call a doctor and ask for either an appointment or maybe also remote help (e.g. via phone or video call etc) | 18:31 |
| de-facto | but i wished a knew a doc too when they were only selling quicktests to medical doctors some time ago here in Germany | 18:32 |
| de-facto | now we can buy them in the supermarket | 18:32 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: DSG 2 marzo 2020, notifica per pubblici proclami del ricorso REP 5664/2020 ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/dsg-2-marzo-2020-notifica-pubblici-proclami-del-ricorso-rep-56642020/16735 ) | 18:34 | |
| Brainstorm | New from Baric Lab: @Baric_Lab: Join us: Race against SARS-CoV-2: vaccines, variants, and beyond, this week, April 29 at 12 pm ET when Marion Pepper, David Martinez, and Bette Korber tackle different aspects of vaccine strategies, and host immunity SARS-CoV-2. Registration is free: https://hubs.ly/H0LtwXH0 → https://is.gd/manzFW | 18:36 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Anguilla: +12 cases (now 84) since a day ago | 18:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Health: A mask break: Federal health officials say vaccinated people can doff face coverings when outside, away from crowds → https://is.gd/NGwMcH | 18:47 |
| de-facto | so cross checking from the abstract of that paper in the doi | 18:48 |
| de-facto | " The estimated age-specific IFR is very low for children and younger adults (e.g., 0.002% at age 10 and 0.01% at age 25) but increases progressively to 0.4% at age 55, 1.4% at age 65, 4.6% at age 75, and 15% at age 85." | 18:48 |
| de-facto | .ifr 10 | 18:48 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, for every 55719 infections at that age, one would progress to a fatal outcome, on average. | 18:48 |
| de-facto | 100%÷55719 = 0,00179472% hence 0.002% indeed | 18:49 |
| de-facto | .ifr 85 | 18:49 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, for every 7 infections at that age, one would progress to a fatal outcome, on average. | 18:49 |
| navyern | What is the real situation in India? | 18:51 |
| de-facto | 100%/7 = 14,285714286% so about 15% indeed (rounding kicks in here, actually 6.45 -> 7 is a little difference there from 15% -> 14% so exactly correct | 18:52 |
| de-facto | good question navyern i ask that myself too, how accurate would the numbers represent the real situation in India? | 18:53 |
| LjL | de-facto, Blankspace is in India, he's COVID positive, and so are other people in his household (but not his parents from what i understand), so i assume that's all a pretty good reason for wishing he knew a doctor | 18:53 |
| de-facto | navyern, i would assume that many cases (both infections and deaths) dont end up in the official statistics, because there is so much chaos going on, they dont even have enough resources to give everyone the medical treatment they need, how can they be expected to keep track of the correct statistics then? | 18:54 |
| de-facto | oh i see LjL | 18:54 |
| navyern | The doctors are infected, too | 18:54 |
| navyern | In this case, I feel that no one can save India | 18:55 |
| de-facto | only the cohesion of the people collaborating on containing the spread of infections | 18:56 |
| de-facto | this is the only way, pretty much in every country worldwide | 18:56 |
| de-facto | do people enjoy Green or Black Tea in India? | 18:59 |
| LjL | tea in India? unheard of! | 19:00 |
| de-facto | if so it might help to constantly drink some, just to keep the throat covered with molecules that inactivate freely floating virions | 19:01 |
| de-facto | also possibly eating meals containing their favorite spice turmeric might be good | 19:02 |
| de-facto | the white of the peal of lemons, containing hesperidin, maybe that could be helpful too | 19:02 |
| navyern | Ultraviolet light can kill coronavirus. | 19:02 |
| de-facto | yes but that only helps outdoors | 19:03 |
| de-facto | like in the air or on surfaces | 19:03 |
| navyern | Alcohol spray in the air can also kill the virus | 19:03 |
| de-facto | is vitamin D3 deficit a thing in India? i doubt so because so close to equator (hence much sunlight for the people) | 19:04 |
| de-facto | yes and also gargling with alc (but not drinking), yet that only helps temporarily | 19:04 |
| de-facto | it cant reach the virions that currently are replicating inside the cells of the body, it only can kill the virions that freely float around on top of the mucus | 19:05 |
| de-facto | but who knows, maybe gargling on regular basis could reduce the amount of virions going down the throat into the lung and gastro-intestinal tract, and thereby give the immune system a bit of an edge in fighting what goes through? | 19:06 |
| navyern | I guess India can only rely on population immunity.Too many people are infected. | 19:07 |
| de-facto | that is completely speculative though, it will of course not cure people, it possibly may help if it does no damage | 19:07 |
| navyern | The more the virus spreads, the more likely it is to mutate. | 19:08 |
| de-facto | well obviously not "enough" for any herd immunity effects, because number of infections is a perfect exponential function (meaning nothing slows it down currently) | 19:08 |
| de-facto | yes navyern unfortunately that is true, the more infecitons happen, the more "tries" it has to breed some mutant that might give it some advantage over its ancestors | 19:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Factors tied to severe COVID-19 in children identified: (HealthDay)—One in three children hospitalized with COVID-19 experience severe illness, which is associated with younger children, male patients, and those with a chronic condition, according to a research letter published online April 9 in JAMA Network Open. → https://is.gd/rOzh9D | 19:09 |
| de-facto | and given India got a HUGE population it also means its a HUGE bruteforcing power (in terms of breeding new mutations) | 19:09 |
| navyern | I see the news here. It seems that there is not enough vaccine in India | 19:11 |
| de-facto | that is especially true if it has to overcome some obstacles in its way that select only mutants that got a fitness advantage under these circumstances (e.g. partly vaccinated population etc) | 19:11 |
| de-facto | almost no country got enough vaccines, their production rate are just too slow still | 19:11 |
| de-facto | a good website for worldwide overview is https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations | 19:12 |
| de-facto | overview of global market on https://www.unicef.org/supply/covid-19-vaccine-market-dashboard | 19:13 |
| de-facto | another that also includes emerging new vaccines is https://covidvax.org/ | 19:14 |
| navyern | Good website, let me have a look first | 19:14 |
| navyern | The vaccination rate in the United States is so high | 19:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Brazil's Jair Bolsonaro Under Senate Investigation for Politicizing Pandemic, Failing to Obtain Vaccines → https://is.gd/BmhSaU | 19:19 |
| de-facto | yes and they would not export even ingredients, until now they make an exception for INdia afaik | 19:19 |
| navyern | I don't think the United States will sincerely help India. After all, American first! | 19:22 |
| navyern | Under the current situation, India can't produce vaccine normally | 19:22 |
| de-facto | yes but at least Biden said there are some efforts, not sure about how much it really means in reality though | 19:22 |
| de-facto | State Serum Institute is the worlds largest vaccine producer afaik | 19:23 |
| de-facto | in India | 19:23 |
| de-facto | so that is good, they really should produce at highest possible output rates | 19:23 |
| de-facto | yet its the same problem almost everywhere, vaccine production rates are orders of magnitude too slow | 19:24 |
| de-facto | there is much room for improvement to say the least | 19:25 |
| navyern | I feel that India should first produce vaccines for its own people,Not to other countries. | 19:25 |
| de-facto | thats exactly what is happening right now afaik | 19:25 |
| de-facto | they stopped exports and were criticized for that, because people all around the world need vaccines | 19:26 |
| navyern | Why not seek help from China? Life matters | 19:27 |
| Brainstorm | New from WebMD: EU Sues AstraZeneca Over Vaccine Shipment Delays: European officials say AstraZeneca broke its contract when it said it would deliver only a third of the 300 million doses that European officials had been expecting by the end of June, The New York Times reported. → https://is.gd/N0pXjm | 19:30 |
| navyern | If the virus mutates, the current vaccine may also fail. | 19:33 |
| de-facto | yes China produces a lot of KN95 masks, idk maybe India can get some of them from China? yet i guess global demand for those is quite high | 19:33 |
| de-facto | navyern, its already happening | 19:33 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/5awmD9E https://i.imgur.com/8co1IoL.jpg "SARS-CoV-2 VoC B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 neutralization evasion" source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03398-2 "Antibody Resistance of SARS-CoV-2 Variants B.1.351 and B.1.1.7 | Nature" | 19:34 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: SARS-CoV-2 VoC B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 neutralization evasion - Album on Imgur | 19:34 |
| navyern | Fuckin 'virus | 19:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +10398 cases (now 4.0 million), +373 deaths (now 119912) since a day ago — Spain: +7665 cases (now 3.5 million), +117 deaths (now 77855) since 23 hours ago | 19:36 |
| de-facto | so in that table there you can see several mutations and testing against blood of people that got vaccinated with BioNTech/Pfizer or Moderna mRNA vaccines | 19:36 |
| de-facto | probably something similar would be expected with the adenovirus vector vaccines (AZ, Janssen, Sputnik) because all of them encode the same variant of the SARS-CoV-2 spike-glycoprotein (some stabilited, some unstabilized, but still same variant) | 19:37 |
| navyern | What about inactivated vaccines? | 19:38 |
| de-facto | as you can see the row containing E484K mutation got more red (less neutralization of such blood sera), meaning viruses containing E484K mutation could replicate better under the partly neutralizing influence of such blood sera from vaccinated people | 19:38 |
| de-facto | something similar is to be expected from the indian "double mutant" B.1.617 (PANGO lineage) that contains E484Q at the same place of the spike glycoprotein but with another amino acid (Q instead of K) | 19:39 |
| de-facto | but that still has to be explored further, yet i would not be surprised if they find E484Q to have some immuno-evasive capabilities too | 19:40 |
| de-facto | meaning the probability of vaccine-breakthrough as well as reinfecitons is raised for variants containing that mutation | 19:40 |
| navyern | That is horrible. | 19:42 |
| de-facto | but that is only in the lab, there is some real life data from Israel, they have used BioNTech/Pfizer BNT162b2 vaccine and got the UK VoC B.1.1.7 (not containing E484K) as well as the SA VoC B.1.351 (containing E484K) | 19:43 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.06.21254882v2.full-text | 19:43 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Evidence for increased breakthrough rates of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in BNT162b2 mRNA vaccinated individuals | medRxiv | 19:43 |
| LjL | ugh | 19:44 |
| de-facto | basically they have found that the vaccine protects against both, but a vaccine never protects completely, there always are some infections also happening in the vaccinated population. | 19:44 |
| de-facto | and that is where it gets interesting, comparing the frequency of occurrence for unvaccinated (mainly B.1.1.7 and only few B.1.351) with the few cases where it breaks through the vaccine induced immunity it shows that B.1.351 can break through 8-fold more than B.1.1.7 | 19:45 |
| de-facto | fitting together with above neutralization assays where it also was roughly an order of magnitude | 19:46 |
| navyern | It's too professional. I don't understand. | 19:46 |
| navyern | Does that mean multiple vaccinations? | 19:47 |
| de-facto | to be clear: it does NOT mean there is no protection against mutations containing E484K, it just means there is 8-fold *less* protection against them compared to some that dont contain E484K | 19:47 |
| de-facto | it also did not tell anything about severe progressions, only about infections, but probably such infections might take a much milder progression for people that got vaccinated, yet that probably remains to be seen in the coming time | 19:48 |
| de-facto | so its always very interesting to look at how Israel is doing, because they got so many people vaccinated that the interesting effects probably will show up first in their country | 19:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Vaccination: COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy: Understandable and irrational → https://is.gd/1ecxWV | 20:22 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for N. Cyprus: +2158 cases (now 6071), +5 deaths (now 29) since a month ago | 21:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: COVID-19 variants spread faster but grew milder over time in Ohio: Mary Van Beusekom | News Writer | CIDRAP News Apr 27, 2021 In the first weeks of the pandemic more-transmissible variants such as D614G became dominant. → https://is.gd/NOumPo | 21:05 |
| rpifan | yea | 21:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from FDA Press Releases: FDA: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: April 27, 2021 → https://is.gd/zRDBgf | 21:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: 58 people were caught with fake coronavirus test result certificates at Brussels Airport in one week → https://is.gd/2RrmR6 | 21:25 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +12514 cases (now 5.5 million), +232 deaths (now 103408) since 19 hours ago | 21:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from Gazzetta Ufficiale italiana: AGENZIA ITALIANA DEL FARMACO - DETERMINA 27 aprile 2021: Classificazione, ai sensi dell'articolo 12, comma 5, della legge 8novembre 2012, n. 189, del medicinale per uso umano «COVID-19 VaccineJanssen», approvato con procedura centralizzata. (Determina n.49/2021). (21A02591) → https://is.gd/cr0RFA | 21:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from Ars Technica: Science: To entice vaccine hesitant, Biden touts maskless activities for vaccinated → https://is.gd/3ATbuy | 22:07 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +9393 cases (now 3.3 million), +28 deaths (now 82372) since 19 hours ago | 22:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: COVID-19 Scan for Apr 27, 2021: Shift work and COVID-19 Irritable bowel drug and COVID vaccine Pandemic diabetes complication in kids → https://is.gd/zeKoD9 | 22:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Quebec confirms 1st death related to rare AstraZeneca-linked blood clots, emphasizes benefits outweigh risks → https://is.gd/LPicgh | 22:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: CDC: Fully vaccinated Americans can go maskless outdoors: Stephanie Soucheray | News Reporter | CIDRAP News Apr 27, 2021 Unvaccinated people may exercise and gather in small groups of vaccinated friends outdoors without a mask. → https://is.gd/xrb5Ak | 22:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Brazil Senate opens pandemic probe, adding to pressure on Bolsonaro → https://is.gd/NrAWdT | 23:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: India's daily COVID-19 cases break yet another record: Lisa Schnirring | News Editor | CIDRAP News Apr 27, 2021 With 362,757 new cases and 3,285 new deaths, India is receiving oxygen, drugs, vaccine, and other key supplies. → https://is.gd/BT8GOA | 23:19 |
| latenite | Hi folks, I get the chance to get a vaccination. What brand should I chose? I am 40 male healthy. What about my daughter 2 years? | 23:30 |
| LjL | You get to choose? Lucky | 23:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Quebec woman dies from complication linked to AstraZeneca vaccine → https://is.gd/wWSEhi | 23:39 |
| LjL | I don't think any vaccine has yet passed trials for an age like your daughter's | 23:40 |
| LjL | As to you, mRNA vaccines are more effective, although they also have s a slightly higher incidence of side effects (usually quite benign) | 23:40 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Mongolia: +1098 cases (now 32437), +8 deaths (now 88) since a day ago | 23:44 |
| LjL | de-facto: someone on TV (a politician, not scientist) said that some study said that infections outdoors are one out of 1149 or 1249 (didn't hear clearly) | 23:51 |
| LjL | I didn't know there was a study quantifying that | 23:51 |
| latenite | LjL, yes lucky me | 23:51 |
| Arsanerit | That number sounds too precise to be from a scientific study. | 23:53 |
| Arsanerit | I mean, too precies to be from a scientific study that has passed meaningful peer review. | 23:53 |
| de-facto | huh? so for every N infections one got its origin outdoors? | 23:54 |
| LjL | Arsanerit: that's not necessarily true, for starters in the study it was probably a decimal number, not a "one out of", and it seems normal to me to give exact numbers and immediately afterwards a confidence interval | 23:55 |
| LjL | de-facto: that seemed to be what I was saying. I am mentioning the exact number as I heard it in case that helps finding this study | 23:55 |
| LjL | What he* | 23:55 |
| Arsanerit | LjL: Not really. If the uncertainty is, say, 100, then it's incorrect to give more than two significant digits. It would be 1200 ± 100 (or rather: (1.2 ± 0.1) · 10³), not 1149 ± 100. | 23:56 |
| LjL | Arsanerit: in physics maybe. That's just not been the case in the vast majority of medical studies on COVID I've seen, including the well known vaccine efficacy numbers, which are sometimes xx%, sometimes even xx.x%, yet the confidence interval always covers more than 10% | 23:58 |
| LjL | latenite: I can't decide for you but the page in the channel topic has a lot of papers and info I've gathered with others here about various vaccines | 23:59 |
| Arsanerit | LjL: Well then, ok. More important is that they help up stay or become healthy... | 23:59 |
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