libera/##covid-19/ Wednesday, 2021-04-28

BrainstormNew from Derek Lowe: @Dereklowe: I am really, really enjoying watching the coronavirus numbers improve here in Massachusetts as the number of vaccinations grows.A month ago we were heading back up again, but that has been stopped, hard. It’s wonderful to see. → https://is.gd/BJbKEs00:00
rpifansad00:08
BrainstormNew from Derek Lowe: @Dereklowe: R to @Dereklowe: We may even have an actual zero-deaths-from-coronavirus day pretty soon, which I believe would be the first since this whole nightmare started. Speed the day. → https://is.gd/cBf2f800:11
rpifani hope not00:12
CoronaBot/r/coronavirus: China delivers 800 oxygen concentrators to India from Hong Kong, promises another 10,000 soon (10019 votes) | https://www.spotlightnepal.com/2021/04/27/china-delivers-800-oxygen-concentrators-promises-another-10000-week/ | https://redd.it/mzlpxy00:12
de-factowell that almost is not measurable, how many outdoors infecitons happen relative to indoors00:20
de-factowhat scenarios to compare00:20
de-factoat what distance? with masks? do people spit in each others faces?00:20
CoronaBot/r/covid19: Evidence For Biological Age Acceleration And Telomere 2 Shortening In COVID-19 Survivors (95 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.23.21255973v1 | https://redd.it/mzv7od00:30
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Only one in four people experience mild systemic side effects from COVID-19 vaccines: One in four people experience mild, short lived systemic side effects after receiving either the Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccine, with headache, fatigue and tenderness the most common symptoms. Most side effects peaked within the first 24 hours [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/DIEzw400:32
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: A vaccine maker ruined 15 million doses. Its CEO sold $11 million of stock before that was public → https://is.gd/fb50v202:04
N1000_When will this epidemic end?02:09
N1000_Because i need to do some business and stuff, so tell me so that i can plan things.02:10
N1000_Any prophet here?02:10
rpifanhopefully never02:10
N1000_Okay, any other prophets?02:11
N1000_Can't take the first one for granted, need more to calculate.02:11
N1000_rpifan do you like epidemics?02:12
oxekthere will never again be a time when there's no epidemic out there02:12
N1000_no more disco for us?02:12
oxekdisco in vr02:13
N1000_i want 70's disco02:13
N1000_with booze and bitches and all that02:13
N1000_oh my02:13
oxekyou can order all of that online02:13
N1000_the future is not pink at all02:13
N1000_that's virtual stuff02:14
N1000_what i'm supposed to do, to get some token to log into second life something02:15
N1000_okay forget about disco, how can i do old school business like intimidate my business partners with all that distance rules and maska02:16
N1000_damn02:16
N1000_can we just use the law of attraction, you know that "secret" from internet gurus, and make this covid shit go away?02:17
N1000_like we VIBRATE and think positively and this will magically go away02:17
oxekit will go away the moment everyone follows our guidelines 100% of the time with no exceptions02:17
N1000_i follow the guidelines for one year man02:18
N1000_and i got nothing in return02:18
N1000_that's not fair business02:18
Quant@n1000 May I ask why are you looking for a prophet?02:19
N1000_Quant why not?02:20
LjLrpifan, sorry what the fuck? are you rooting for more deaths and more pandemic and more of all of this?02:20
N1000_i got 2 pfizer shots and still no disco02:20
N1000_hey LjL :-)02:21
N1000_LjL he's just trolling02:22
de-factolook at China, in Wuhan they do pool party and disco again, look at NZ with open bars, look at Israel02:24
N1000_de-facto yes i saw it, amazing isn't it02:25
N1000_but unfortunately that's not in eurupe, are they more capable than us?02:25
LjLyes02:26
LjLi'd say after a year of consistent blunders, it's safe to say that yes02:26
N1000_what a fiasco02:26
de-factothere is no reason we could not learn and transition to strict strategy too, hence also get the benefits02:27
LjLwe're reopening again "for the summer", right after saying we shouldn't repeat last summer's mistakes02:27
de-factowell yeah and there is that, unfortunately in every EU country02:27
LjLde-facto, you say there is no reason but there are usually reasons for things. why haven't we learned? why are we keeping making the same mistakes even though you and i know they're mistakes in advance?02:27
N1000_LjL, tourist country?02:28
LjLin a way it's a similar mistake to think we "will" learn even though the evidence shows we consistently haven't02:28
LjLN1000_, yeah02:28
de-factoLjL, good questions, tbh i dont understand why02:28
derpadminwithout having the full thread, I would say selfishness and taking things for granted02:29
N1000_maybe because this is a gift from heaven for politicians?02:29
N1000_i see no other explanation02:29
LjLderpadmin, well why are New Zealanders so much less selfish and taking-things-for-granted?02:29
LjLN1000_, i find Australian government pretty scummy personally. why aren't they using it as a similar gift?02:30
derpadminLjL, very good question, have they done something differently02:30
LjLwell they've definitely done things differently02:30
derpadminbecause the virues does not care much about nationality02:30
de-factothe only thing politicians really could earn credit points is by having success in containment, yet the very vast majority of them fails absolutely miserably02:30
LjLwhat i don't understand is why we can't see that our ways have failed and maybe we should do theirs02:30
LjLi think the EU being dysfunctional, and some countries being similarly dysfunctional within themselves with each region wanting to do its own thing, hasn't helped02:31
N1000_LjL no idea why02:31
LjLother countries don't work the way the EU, which is like a country in some ways but not like a country in others, does (or doesn't)02:31
derpadminif we look at the US vs northern europe countries, there is a lot of things that could have been  done better pre-covid, maybe it is the same mindset/dynamic02:31
LjLso in my opinion the functioning of the EU is something we should look at to find answers02:31
N1000_probably less scummy than the EU government, can't really beat their greed02:31
de-factoand by not achieving proper containment (e.g. pseudo-lockdowns etc) they ensure infections never really go down, elongating the time with severe problems, also for economy, almost indefinitely. R~1 is the very worse of all scenarios when there are high number of infections happening02:32
N1000_documented so many times, i highly doubt they are dumb02:32
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +2400 cases (now 4.4 million), +12 deaths (now 127570) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +4450 cases (now 1.5 million), +15 deaths (now 17162) since 23 hours ago02:32
de-factothe more R<1 the better for everyone suffering from the presence of the virus, especially economy02:32
LjLin other news i have a sore throat and am feeling generally shitty02:33
finely[m]https://pluralistic.net/2021/04/27/bruno-argento/#pharma-death-cult02:33
N1000_"so in my opinion the functioning of the EU is something we should look at to find answers" - "they should"02:33
N1000_but they don't02:34
N1000_it's easy for us and we02:34
N1000_we know what should be done, they aren't doing it, that's the problem02:34
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: As Covid sweeps India, experts say cases and deaths are going unreported → https://is.gd/8PiVf002:35
de-factothere is only us, its worldwide, it wont be over till every country gets support and vaccines etc02:35
de-factowe are all in one boat with this02:35
N1000_i see several boats02:35
N1000_definitely not in the same boat02:35
de-factojust imagine, even if we all are vaccinated, if poorer countries still have a lot of ongoing infections its only question of time till the next evasive mutant is imported via airplane "free" traveling for vaccinated people, and it will be selected for being able to replicate in vaccinated population (otherwise it would not be able to be imported in such a way)02:36
de-factohence there is ONLY one solution: stop infections, worldwide, simultaneously.02:36
de-factowe are in the same boat as long as global traveling is tolerated02:37
N1000_what about new strains, they appear like mushrooms after the rain02:37
LjLtoo bad NASA said there is no risk of devastating asteroid within the next 100 years...02:37
LjLN1000_, that's why de-facto says we should stop it simultaneously02:37
N1000_LjL aliens are the answer02:38
LjLbecause if we leave parts of the world breeding new strains, eventually they'll reach everywhere else too02:38
LjLi think what he proposes is not feasible, i'm afraid, but i understand why he proposes it02:38
de-factotolerating ongoing infections in partly immune populations is nothing less than bruteforcing immunity, breeding for new evasive mutants02:38
N1000_chinese are the least disciplined nation but they are blessed with oppressive government in this case02:39
ryoumaidr if it was de-facto whose emasures i encountered last time but the us would instigate a rebellion if some of the measures were taken.02:40
de-factochina was smart enough to have an extremely aggressive and strict containment strategy and stick to it without compromise02:40
LjLN1000_, i don't know if disciplined, but they were heavily encouraged to report on their neighbors breaking rules in Wuhan. which is creepy if you ask me... but here, there was a big scene when someone famous said on the internet that he *did* report a neighbor for an illegal party, with tons of people saying he was a snitch and all sorts of bad things about it02:40
ryoumataiwan dtrt02:40
ryoumaa thousand cases or so.  13 deaths or so.  total.02:41
ryoumaa few countries did02:41
N1000_antarctica is pretty safe though02:41
LjLi think one thing is the government posting "Report your neighbor if you see them doing suspicious COVIDy things!" on houses, not a very good thing imo, but then another thing is virtually crucifying someone for actually reporting something that is, factually, illegal to the police02:41
N1000_covidy hahaha02:42
LjLN1000_, well i can't guarantee an accurate translation, i don't speak chinese... wo bu... speak... chinese02:43
de-facto.title https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD/ <-- take the slider back to 2020, China is one of the few countries that always had economic growth in 202002:43
Brainstormde-facto: From www.imf.org: error parsing title ('NoneType' object has no attribute 'string')02:43
de-facto.title https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/countries/43/export-basket <-- China export02:44
Brainstormde-facto: From atlas.cid.harvard.edu: The Atlas of Economic Complexity02:44
* finely[m] < https://matrix.org/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/rYnLpFuraIcWkmaCbfXYrflx/message.txt >02:47
* finely[m] < https://matrix.org/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/pqzYbNKtLoSjtmcsMTxFdxfF/message.txt >02:48
* finely[m] < https://matrix.org/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/HLSjgIcGQGzmBoYYCMmwQXaf/message.txt >02:49
ryoumalike probably most regulars here, i was practically screaming at the screen for countries to increase their infrastructure for dealing with the virus including shutting down borders at least as early as the first case leaving chinese borders and probably earlier.  but i'd have questions about who would die from lack of medicine and so on if such a hypothetical  worldwide lockdown existed.02:50
ryoumaand lack of food and so on02:51
ryoumaidk what one would do to design such a thing even if populations and oligarchs and govs were willing02:51
LjLfinely[m], please don't do the thing with long messages including newlines + edits of such... in the IRC side that's just been three links to click on, i suspect most people just won't click on them. the Matrix+IRC integration is sometimes fraught with annoying differences02:51
ryoumaalthough perhaps better distribution of vaccines plus a lightweight lockdown would work, idk.  but here i am reading that one doctor says not to get vaccine if history of angioedema and do not know why.  and fining out that my carer has uniliaterally decided, provbably since long ago, to just go and do covidy things now that she is vaccinated.02:53
ryoumai don't think my survival can be taken for granted or even considered all that high probability02:53
CoronaBot/r/coronavirus: CDC says fully vaccinated Americans can go without masks outdoors except in crowded settings (10133 votes) | https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/04/27/cdc-guidance-masks-outdoors/ | https://redd.it/mzs6m902:55
finely[m]<LjL "finely, please don't do the thin"> Sorry, didn't know that.02:56
N1000_"Vaccine scepticism among medics sparks alarm in Europe and US"02:59
N1000_"Signs that a relatively high number of healthcare workers are unwilling to receive the coronavirus vaccine in some parts of Europe and the US have alarmed politicians and health experts, as countries struggle to contain a surge in infections and carry out mass vaccination."02:59
LjLthere's already been talk of making vaccination compulsory for healthcare workers here for a while03:00
LjLis anyone surprised more people are hesitant in Europe after the AZ rollercoaster?03:00
N1000_AZ screwed up big time03:00
LjLryouma, what vaccine did she get?03:01
ryoumaidk i think pfizer03:01
N1000_i completed pfizer ritual03:01
LjLryouma, chances that she'll infect you after getting Pfizer (well, after the second dose at least) are *really* slim imo03:01
N1000_second shot was quite an experience03:01
N1000_literally sick for several days with fever03:02
N1000_first was just a sore arm03:02
LjLN1000_, i just read https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-04-people-mild-side-effects-covid-.html and i'm slightly surprised to find that AZ seems to have more side effects (more common anyway, not sure about intensity) than Pfizer even compared to Pfizer's second dose03:02
LjLonly slightly though, because so far the experiences i've heard have been from people getting Pfizer being just fine at least after the first dose, not so much with AZ03:03
N1000_it is quite discouraging a friend of mine is also fully vaccinated with pfizer but he got covid anyway, uk strain03:05
ryoumaN1000_: did he use ppe and distancing?03:06
LjLN1000_, symptomatic, bad...?03:07
ryoumaor get tested for immunocompromised status?03:07
LjLthe UK strain probably take vaccine effectiveness down a notch in my opinion, even if the overall conclusion is "meh, pretty much the same"03:07
N1000_LjL, not bad, "feels like a flu"03:07
LjLa flu can feel pretty bad :P03:07
LjLbut i guess when people say "feels like a flu", they don't remember their last actual flu very well03:08
N1000_yeah still a flu, no pneumonia, no complications03:08
ryoumawhy do you think chances are slim?  do we have data on transmission?  do we think it will work against variants?03:08
LjLgood03:08
N1000_i guess without being vaccinated he might be in the intensive care03:08
N1000_just speculating03:08
N1000_but possible03:08
N1000_the thing is even after getting 2 shots i don't think i am protected from getting it, more like protected from covid complications03:10
N1000_and i hear comments like i have A CHIP that bill gates installed into the vaccine to depopulate sheep like me, quite seriously03:11
N1000_don't know should i laugh or feel sorry at those, probably both03:12
ryoumawhy is depopulation desirable for overlords?  don't they want more workers?03:12
ryoumaalso why use a chip to depopulate?  why not just a contraceptive or poison?03:13
N1000_hahahaha03:14
finely[m]<N1000_ "AZ screwed up big time"> No, no one saw this coming. This is just how science works.03:15
N1000_finely[m]: i meant not respecting orders and selective caluclating exports03:16
N1000_that's why EU filled a lawsuit vs AZ03:17
finely[m]<N1000_ "and i hear comments like i have "> Yer, he's working to kill people in other indirect ways.03:18
finely[m]<N1000_ "finely: i meant not respecting o"> Ok03:19
LjL-MatrixInternet outage boo03:22
LjL-Matrix<N1000_ "the thing is even after getting "> If that's what you think about getting Pfizer, imagine what I'm going to think if/when getting AZ03:22
N1000_chip is there because bill gates can press the button and i'll be turned into the zombie03:23
N1000_think!03:23
N1000_LjL-Matrix you don't want AZ03:23
LjL-MatrixI don't think I'm going to have a choice, whatever is available when my age range is due is what I get03:24
N1000_LjL-Matrix which country?03:24
LjL-MatrixItaly03:24
N1000_ah, neighbour03:25
LjL-MatrixThe ha ha funny thing is my parents both got AZ, then just a few days later they announced we're out of AZ and now even their age range is going to get Pfizer03:26
LjL-MatrixImagine how much we laughed, so good03:26
N1000_N1000_ <--- sono istriano03:26
ryoumais az a 2 shot thing?  can you mix and match?03:27
ryoumai.e. can they get pfizer for 2nd?03:27
N1000_1 shot03:28
N1000_ryouma no mixing03:28
N1000_2 doses for AZ, sorry03:29
N1000_russian / chinese - 103:29
N1000_somehow pfizer / moderna mRNA vaccines seem to have the least side effects03:30
N1000_serious side effects though03:31
N1000_russian / chinese, i have no idea, they might be good?03:31
LjL-Matrixryouma: AZ is two shots, mixing and matching hasn't been tested, and anyway I've been told doses have been reserved for people's second shots (just their luck!)03:31
LjL-MatrixI suspect mixing and matching would be fine really03:32
N1000_after all they all do the same thing03:32
LjL-MatrixBut I certainly wouldn't want to be the one making that decision without trials backing it03:32
LjL-MatrixYeah, they all end up with spike proteins in different ways03:32
N1000_istria is very disciplined, very few cases here, i think that is the most important key03:33
N1000_it was green zone for weeks with zero or few new cases... no vaccine will yield results as cautious behaviour03:33
LjL-MatrixDisciplined, as all Italians03:33
* LjL-Matrix hides03:33
finely[m]<ryouma "is az a 2 shot thing?  can you m"> I think the UK is running trials on mixed vaccines. Speculation is it might be better for the adenovirus based ones as some of the immune response on the second dose will be to the the adenovirus itself, not the COVID spike protein.03:36
LjL-MatrixI guess maybe N1000 didn't like my tease ;(03:57
QuantWhatcha teasing about?03:58
Quantmaybe we all a little too sensitive these days? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯03:59
LjL-PhoneQuant: well I implied Istria is Italy04:09
Quantwhat is istria?04:10
Quantis that the country of the i phone04:10
QuantI guess we all could have a country named after ourselves followed by an stria?04:11
QuantQuant-Stria is a land of over analysis with big ego with mostly passive aggressive demographics.04:12
de-factothere are some news stating that the fatal COVID outcomes in India that occur not in a hospital would not appear in the official statistics, meaning all people that cant enter a hospital and either die at home or in a car in front of hospitals just get cremated in improvised places (e.g. parking places with lots of fires burning dead bodies)04:12
ryoumauk yellow card https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/979485/COVID-19_mRNA_Pfizer-BioNTech_vaccine_analysis_print.pdf04:12
de-factoquestion: if hospitals are full already, yet infections still on exponential rise, should we see a saturation in the official death rates despite in reality more and more dying off the record?04:13
ryoumait is disappointing for that stuff to occur a year after they occurred in spain, italy, etc.04:15
de-factoalso how trustworthy can testing reflect incidence if there are places where every second test comes back positive?04:15
de-factoi have to admit i doubt official numbers from india at the moment, just because i think they cant keep up with how fast cases and deaths are growing in reality04:17
de-factoimho they should enforce lockdown as much as possible, for sure its difficult there, but they just HAVE to break that trend, exponential growth has to stop at any price04:18
de-factodoubling every 2 weeks we might see millions of daily new infections in official numbers, in reality its probably already is more than a million new cases per day04:19
de-factobtw this is not only a problem to india, its a danger for the whole world what happens there currently04:21
ryoumaby which you mean variants?04:21
ryoumait is a humanitarian crisis that is for certain04:22
ryoumaindia is the major supplier of generic medicines.  i wonder if they will hold back exports, be unable to export due to manpower shortage or knock-on effects, or be denied exports.  i wonder whether that is another potential danger to the world.04:22
de-factoyes variants and exports of pathogen04:22
ryoumai shudder to think of the caste and other prejudices that could affect their response04:23
ryoumapolitics*04:23
de-factoas well as resources, India is a big producer of pharma indeed04:23
de-factoand we are talking 1366M people here04:24
ryoumanot sure what you are saying04:25
de-facto1380M even04:25
QuantSo is this a discussion of the variant possibility on over 1 Billion souls or that the rest of the world will not get their Pharma04:26
de-factothat is a lot of life at risk, a lot of health that can be wasted and also a lot of processing power for breeding mutants04:26
ryoumai don't know what you mean by variant04:26
QuantOr we asking if Quality control of Pharma manufacturing would be affected since supply chain is connected to QC04:27
de-factothose bad effects are not mutually exclusive they are all aspects of the same problem, the infections completely out of control, growing exponentially in India04:27
ryoumai was just asking, independent of hte humanitarian crisis, the export of pathogen, and the export of variants, whether pharma exports will be affected, or even if there will be hoarding outside india in fear of that04:28
de-factoIndia should get international help, but also their government has to enforce some containment in order to break that trend04:29
ryoumathere could be a lot of deaths outside india in addition if such occurred04:29
Quantinteresting if BIG pharma responds with contingency plans for production04:29
de-factoactually that is the *only* thing that helps, enforcing absolutely strict containment without tolerating any compromises04:31
ryoumawouldn't be a bad idea to supply food and medicine to those who need it while being contained...04:32
de-factobut then i see reporting videos of elderly people in enormous queues in front of vaccination places, and without distancing04:32
Quantmaybe south Asia starts getting into Pharma production/distribution. They do everything else now anyways.04:32
ryoumathat could take a long time to set up04:32
ryoumaoh india is s asia isn't it?04:33
de-factoits the definition of south asia04:33
QuantI know.. Definition.. I am not allowed to identify any countries as many are sensitive these days.04:33
QuantCannot state countries that begin with the letter "C" or end in any "STAN".. #kidding04:34
ryoumano idea what you are talking about.  why would it be bad to id countries?  wp says Afghanistan, Pakistan, India,04:34
ryoumaNepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, the Maldives, and Sri Lanka.  although there are certainly going to be others presumably perhaps sandalman islands etc.04:34
ryoumaum scratch that04:36
ryoumamaking enough antivirals is presumably a concern right now04:39
-Synapsestorm- ⭕ भूकंप! Earthquake! 6.1 Mwp tremor, registered by alomax,early,quakenotices, occurred 35 minutes ago (02:21:25 UTC), during daytime, Northeastern India (26.77, 92.36) ± 3 km, ↓13 km likely felt 280 km away (in Guwahati, Nagaon, Mangaldoi, Tezpur, Marigaon…) by 1.2 million people → https://t.co/r8ZIvVIelN (webservices.ingv.it)04:56
de-factomaking enough oxygen is the primary concern afaik, not to begin to speak of beds, meds, treatment, ventilators, personnel, etc04:58
de-factofar better would be making enough contact reduction and containment though04:59
BrainstormNew from Derek Lowe: @hildabast: RT by @Dereklowe: Important PPS: the Ad26 vax lots (first Sputnik V shot) not yet analyzed - this is what was identified in every lot of the Ad5 vax (2nd shot) HT @Dereklowe → https://nitter.dark.fail/hildabast/status/1387220013237497856#m04:59
LjLso now my internet is "back" in the sense that my router's 5GHz radio is getting tethered mobile data from my phone, and sending it back to my LAN05:00
LjLconveniently this whole thing happened while there was that big earthquake in India, so the bot couldn't early warn anyone since it wasn't there :(05:00
de-factowelcome back LjL i guess?05:02
LjLwell, the internet outage is not resolved05:03
LjLso kinda back05:03
LjLmaybe tomorrow i'll have to call support if it's still gone :(05:03
LjLhate05:03
de-factofor such scenarios i setup my openwrt with mwan3 and failover to USB3 adapter with SierraWireless EM7455 card, those work extremely well05:06
de-factoat one time i did not even notice until the data plan was fully used up LOL05:07
LjLde-facto, i usually failover to a backup phone with USB tethering, but last time i reflashed openwrt, i wasn't diligent and i didn't reinstall the USB-related packages05:13
LjLso it was easier to set it up as a wifi client for my phone05:13
LjLin theory i can switch it back to the USB setup now, but it's not working05:14
LjLlike, i've installed the packages i thought were the needed one, but it's still not obtaining an IP05:14
LjLthe thing is i don't care, because this setup is working fine05:14
LjLde-facto, on the other hand, this looks scary :( https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.23.21255973v105:14
de-facto.title https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-adopts-full-closure-until-may-17-over-covid-19-2021-04-26/05:18
Brainstormde-facto: From www.reuters.com: Turkey announces "full lockdown" from April 29 to curb COVID spread | Reuters05:18
de-factocongrats to a very good decision05:18
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: The apocalyptic covid surge in India is killing so many people, many of the dead are not even being counted anymore. Modi is India's Trump. This is the result. → https://is.gd/3DthXt05:21
de-factouff that indeed looks scary at the first sight, i have to read that tomorrow though i am too tired to kill a full paper now05:21
LjLthey have some comments about it on reddit https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/mzv7od/evidence_for_biological_age_acceleration_and/05:22
LjLde-facto, i'm not sure about the timing of this lockdown in Turkey. look at the graph, http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Turkey&cumulative=no&smooth=yes this is when in Italy we'd be opening up. if Erdogan were extremely smart he'd say "okay, it's already going down, let's lock everything down so we'll get zero covid", but Erdogan being Erdogan, i bet he has other reasons to decide for a lockdown *now*05:23
LjL"At a time when Europe is entering a phase of reopening, we need to rapidly cut our case numbers to below 5,000 not to be left behind. Otherwise we will inevitably face heavy costs in every area, from tourism to trade and education," Erdogan said.05:24
LjLso it's all about allowing tourism in the summer -.-05:24
ryoumawhy does a report of an earthquake early warn?05:25
ryoumabecause electrons and photons travel faster?  what is the difference in practice?05:25
LjLryouma, yes, people who are not right at the epicenter may get the information a few seconds before the shaking actually starts05:26
LjLwith my system, that's unlikely to happen most of the time05:27
LjLbut "real" earthquake warning systems do accomplish that05:27
LjLin Japan, you can get up to a minute early warning05:27
LjLCalifornia recently inaugurated their system05:27
Raf[m]Does anyone have a definitive study that hypothesizes the probability of reinfection? Specifically, what's the scientific basis for convalescent subjects to get vaccinated?05:28
LjLMexico also has one (the first one in the world, although it's very "rough" now compared to Japan's one)05:28
ryoumai can see that scientists would want to make sure thier experiments are ok, or if widespread with everybody hearing it who can hear, you could put down teh shelves you are buyilding or something.  i guess.05:28
LjLryouma, to the individual, it gives time to find a hiding place and get there safely, or at least get away from shelves and objects that may fall. but the system is pervasive in Japan. it was initially developed by the railways for the shinkansen trains: the trains slow down or stop within seconds in areas where it's estimated that there may be damage to the tracks. people in cars also get warned and they can slow down to a stop and put on the parking05:32
LjLbrake, hospital equipment like MRI machines automatically turns off and "frees" the patient, gas valves automatically shut off...05:32
LjLit's *very* useful and it's hard to explain this to people who have never heard of it and immediately think that since "we can't predict earthquakes", this must be bollocks05:32
LjLit's true that we can't predict earthquakes, but early warning systems do no such thing05:32
ryoumagood points.  but you ahve to realize where i am.  japan at its best can get stuyff like that done pretty well.  (at it worst you get fukushima etc.)  having such a system really pervasive seems kind of unlikely but what do i know perhaps california is an advanced nation now.05:38
ryoumai don't follow news as you can see....05:38
ryoumaanyway i like discovering that somebody is organized05:39
ryoumaalso of course tsunamis need early warning systems05:39
LjLinteresting to read you calling California a nation05:42
LjLi'd have youtube videos to show you about earthquake early warning systems but i guess it would be hard for you to watch them05:43
LjLyuta looks like they're in japan, maybe they can tell you how decent the EEW seems to be :P05:43
ryoumai don't watchmost videos05:43
LjLryouma, well, with japan's early warning system the best way to demonstrate it is to show the warnings on NHK, or like people in houses receiving the warning from computers/phones/ad-hoc devices etc and then you can see the earthquake starting05:48
LjLalso there's an informational video on all the various ways the system is used, but i guess i covered most of the ones it covers05:49
LjLanyway it's cool, and 10 seconds to a minute may seem like nothing, but they aren't nothing05:49
LjLworkers can stop doing what they're doing and protect themselvse05:49
LjLif you're in a supermarket you can get away from the aisles that will drop all sorts of glass and stuff on you05:49
ryoumaso supermarkets broadcast it?05:56
ryoumacn't imagine that getting past the lobbyists in the us05:56
ryoumai mean only barely can i imagine it05:56
ryoumaif it were for a child abduction prevention system or some other topic maybe they would broadcast in supermarkets05:57
ryoumait does sound good though.  i have seen the warnings on recorded tv.05:58
ryoumai wonder if hte sound is always hte same05:58
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Indian B.1.617 Covid Variant Found in At Least 17 Countries, Says WHO → https://is.gd/FmFrkI06:09
LjLryouma, most public places broadcast it06:09
LjLryouma, the sound is made available under a permissive license by the NHK as long as it's not misused. so it's not always the same but it often is06:09
LjLthe sound was studied specifically to alarm (dissonant tones) but in a subdued way, not a siren or anything like that06:10
LjLcatch your attention and put it in watch-out mode06:10
LjLalso most people have apps installed on their phones that give more specific warnings, telling them how many seconds they estimate until the S-waves come, and how strong it will be06:11
LjLYurekuru is probably the most common such app06:11
LjLryouma, you can also stare at this site and wait until it beeps and then it will show the earthquake expanding :P http://www.kmoni.bosai.go.jp/06:12
ryoumaanother lonely person hobby06:13
LjLyeah :(06:13
ryoumaweird font06:13
yutaLjL: yes, I live in japan :)06:22
yutaThis is rapid quake alert in japan. https://www.kyoshin.bosai.go.jp/06:23
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express (Health): Health: COVID 19: Experts on whether camphor helps improve oxygen levels, relieve respiratory distress → https://is.gd/o7e9wg06:33
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +14159 cases (now 3.3 million), +112 deaths (now 82456) since 23 hours ago06:36
ryoumayuta: why do you think japan has been doing relatively well after the hokkaido thing?06:37
ryoumaalso, were teh olympics cancelled06:37
yutaryouma: olympics is still on going :)06:41
ryoumawith crowds?06:41
yutaand do you mean 'hokkaido thing' quake? that caused stopping electric power down.06:42
yutathat was recoverd.06:42
ryoumano i just meant the first lockdown outside china i heard of by the prefectural gov06:43
yutaryouma: maybe successed. and I don't know well :)06:50
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Indian Covid-19 variant found in at least 17 countries: WHO → https://is.gd/sRZohQ06:56
BrainstormUpdates for Belgium: +2946 cases (now 979034), +39 deaths (now 24104) since a day ago07:07
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Covaxin found to neutralise 617 variant of COVID-19: Dr Anthony Fauci → https://is.gd/iH950E07:07
yutaryouma: hokkaido thing is not lockdown. they stopped school.07:14
ryoumai don't understand.  but that's ok.  i just meant why has japan been doing relatively well.07:16
ryoumaor so it seemed last i checked at least07:16
yutaryouma: we use chopstics , no hugs , putting off shoes on our rooms.07:17
ryoumawhat about trains in big cities?07:18
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Indian-American Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal’s parents test Covid positive in India → https://is.gd/7cxkYG07:19
yutaryouma: no reguration.07:22
yutaryouma: so full of people in the train lol07:22
BrainstormUpdates for France: +22272 cases (now 5.6 million), +275 deaths (now 103683) since 9 hours ago — Lombardy, Italy: +1369 cases (now 797658), +54 deaths (now 32742) since a day ago — Netherlands: +2676 cases (now 1.5 million), +16 deaths (now 17178) since 5 hours ago — Canada: +6844 cases (now 1.2 million) since 13 hours ago07:38
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: India's coronavirus death toll surpasses 200,000 after record case surge → https://is.gd/IhFblG07:42
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: US’s CDC eases outdoors mask-wearing guidelines for the vaccinated → https://is.gd/vOcsXI07:54
kreyrenWhy is europe still so incompetent with vaccines08:12
blkshps/europe/EU08:19
BrainstormUpdates for New Zealand: +1 cases (now 2610) since a day ago08:35
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Covid: One dose of vaccine halves transmission - study: People who get coronavirus after their first jab are up to 49% less likely to pass it on, research suggests. → https://is.gd/AjFhBv08:51
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | April 28, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://is.gd/gcl6rn09:04
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Indian Covid variant found in at least 17 countries: WHO: The World Health Organization said Tuesday that a variant of COVID-19 feared to be contributing to a surge in coronavirus cases in India has been found in over a dozen countries. → https://is.gd/s9aYxD10:17
BrainstormNew from EMA: What's new: Medicine: Human medicines European public assessment report (EPAR): Pregabalin Pfizer, pregabalin, Anxiety Disorders,Epilepsy, Date of authorisation: 10/04/2014, Revision: 22, Status: Authorised → https://is.gd/t56Wfg10:28
BrainstormNew from StatNews: In the Lab: How blackouts, fires, and a pandemic are driving shortages of pipette tips — and hobbling science → https://www.statnews.com/2021/04/28/pipette-tips-shortage/?utm_campaign=rss10:42
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express (Health): Health: COVID 19 vaccination and menstruation: Government debunks social media rumours → https://is.gd/LPEKPZ10:53
BrainstormNew from BMJ: The robot will see you now: how machines could reshape post-pandemic medicine: During the early days of the pandemic, Bristol’s Southmead Hospital tested communication robots. Typically, these are “telepresence units”: a small screen and webcam mounted on a pillar that can be... → https://is.gd/84XFUz11:33
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Dichiarazione del Presidente del Consiglio Mario Draghi ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/dichiarazione-del-presidente-del-consiglio-mario-draghi/16737 )11:49
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Bill Gates under fire for saying vaccine formulas shouldn’t be shared with developing world → https://is.gd/5wA9hO12:04
BrainstormUpdates for Laos: +93 cases (now 604) since 19 hours ago12:13
BrainstormNew from BMJ: Covid-19: India should stop mass gatherings and consider postponing elections, say doctors: A group of leading doctors has called for a raft of public health measures to support India as the country struggles to cope with a huge surge in covid-19 cases and deaths.In an open letter published... → https://is.gd/2k2Y1m12:15
pwr22<kreyren "Why is europe still so incompete"> I dunno, just blame Bill Gates yeah :P?12:26
pwr22On a serious note though, I do think Billy G has done some bad stuff during this pandemic (non-conspiracy mind control stuff)12:26
kreyrensigh12:35
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Elderly man in UP[India] carries wife's body on cycle as villagers prevent cremation over fears of Covid → https://is.gd/BJUXSb12:38
BrainstormNew from EMA: What's new: Medicine: Human medicines European public assessment report (EPAR): Vaxzevria (previously COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca), COVID-19 Vaccine (ChAdOx1-S [recombinant]), COVID-19 virus infection, Date of authorisation: 29/01/2021, Revision: 6, Status: Authorised → https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/human/EPAR/vaxzevria-previously-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca13:27
CoronaBot/r/covid19: Longitudinal analysis shows durable and broad immune memory after SARS-CoV-2 infection with persisting antibody responses and memory B and T cells (81 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.19.21255739v1 | https://redd.it/mztxfc14:00
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: India's double mutant Covid variant found in 17 countries: WHO → https://is.gd/270Dyo14:03
BrainstormNew from Scientific American: Malaria Vaccine Shows Promise--Now Come Tougher Trials: A previous version of an experimental malaria vaccine was trialed at Ewin Polyclinic in Cape Coast, Ghana. → https://is.gd/6vm9lX14:15
BrainstormNew from ECDC: SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern pose a higher risk for hospitalisation and intensive care admission: Since the discovery of SARS-CoV-2, three variants of concern (VOC), first identified in the United Kingdom (B.1.1.7), South Africa (B.1.351), and Brazil (P.1), have been associated with higher transmissibility and severity of disease, with [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/btVETD14:39
BrainstormNew from Politico: Finnish government avoids collapse: A compromise deal to keep the government alive also means Finland is likely to pass the EU's coronavirus recovery package. → https://is.gd/AQx5ki14:51
BrainstormUpdates for Mongolia: +1171 cases (now 33608), +9 deaths (now 97) since 15 hours ago15:14
BrainstormNew from Derek Lowe: @adamfeuerstein: RT by @Dereklowe: How blackouts, fires, and a pandemic are driving shortages of pipette tips — and hobbling science https://www.statnews.com/2021/04/28/pipette-tips-shortage/ via @sheridan_kate → https://is.gd/65Aota15:16
BrainstormUpdates for Switzerland: +12 deaths (now 10607) since 23 hours ago15:33
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express (Health): Destination of the week: Seychelles to allow entry to vaccinated visitors from India → https://is.gd/2eybED15:39
CoronaBot/r/covid19: Vaccine side-effects and SARS-CoV-2 infection after vaccination in users of the COVID Symptom Study app in the UK: a prospective observational study (83 votes) | https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00224-3/fulltext | https://redd.it/n0au7915:43
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Preference for AstraZeneca vaccine declines—but vaccine confidence undented: The public's preference for the AstraZeneca COVID vaccine has declined since last month, and belief that it causes blood clots has increased—but despite this, vaccine confidence is higher than it was towards the end of 2020, and there has been a [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/MGdg6Z16:14
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Dr Fauci says rich countries have failed India by focusing on themselves during Covid. Chief medical adviser says situation is ‘tragic’ and Covaxx not enough → https://is.gd/zxnWUU16:39
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: BioNTech boss: Europe will reach herd immunity this summer: Europe can achieve herd immunity against the coronavirus within three to four months, the head of German pharmaceutical company BioNTech, which developed the first widely approved COVID-19 vaccine with U.S. partner Pfizer, said Wednesday. → https://is.gd/kJ8Q4216:51
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Dichiarazione del Presidente del Consiglio Mario Draghi sulla missione di assistenza sanitaria in India ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/dichiarazione-del-presidente-del-consiglio-mario-draghi-sulla-missione-di-assistenza )16:54
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +15557 cases (now 3.3 million), +192 deaths (now 82536) since 23 hours ago17:13
BrainstormNew from Derek Lowe: @Dereklowe: The Brazilian authorities reject the Russian Gamaleya vaccine, citing (among other things) the presence of replicating adenovirus. What's that mean, and what does that mean for them?https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/04/28/brazil-rejects-the-gamaleya-vaccinehttps://nitter.dark.fail/Dereklowe/status/1387424112990162951#m17:15
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): COVID-19 Antibody Responses In Cystic Fibrosis → https://is.gd/h0QZE917:38
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): COVID-19 and Multiple Sclerosis Disease Modifying Therapies → https://is.gd/v1FXig18:02
BrainstormNew from Derek Lowe: @Dereklowe: The behavior of the official Sputnik-V Twitter account and its backers is disgusting. They should remove their lies and propaganda from this platform, or Twitter should do it for them. @sputnikvaccine @jack @TwitterSupport [... want %more?] → https://nitter.dark.fail/Dereklowe/status/1387438772409806855#m18:13
BrainstormNew from Politico: UK buys extra 60 million doses of BioNTech/Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine: The U.K. has purchased a further 60 million doses of BioNTech/Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine to support its planned booster program from the fall, the government announced today. The order brings the total number of doses of the jab bought by the U.K. to 100 million — [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/wLkDG318:36
BrainstormUpdates for Switzerland: +8 deaths (now 10615) since 3 hours ago18:40
BrainstormNew from BMJ: Covid-19: One dose of vaccine cuts risk of passing on infection by as much as 50%, research shows: Adults infected with covid-19 three weeks after receiving one dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine were 38-49% less likely to pass the virus on to their household contacts than... → https://is.gd/RUgUn318:46
LjLokay i think i should add this to... probably a number of other "evidence of reduced infectiousness after vaccine" papers that i have *not* added to the page, and that people often ask about or even outright reject as a possibility (somehow)19:00
LjLso yeah, i'll add this, if you recall other similar studies or even good keywords to find them again, thank you very much19:00
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express (Health): Life Positive: Live your gay millennial pandemic fantasy in Stardew Valley → https://is.gd/7sXUF919:06
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Recent Commits to links:master: Add Public Health England report on reduced infectiousness after rece… ( https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/4eb1557016c337aa34ed02391d628090163befe0 )19:20
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: As India helped others, so must we in their time of need, says Prince Charles in COVID-aid appeal → https://is.gd/u4cZgk19:28
BrainstormUpdates for Italy: +13382 cases (now 4.0 million), +344 deaths (now 120256) since a day ago19:36
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Researchers develop 20-minute saliva-based COVID-19 test: Researchers at the University of Waterloo are developing a new COVID-19 test that can be administered at home using saliva, aiming to deliver a positive or negative result in less than 20 minutes. → https://is.gd/MHdXlB20:11
BrainstormUpdates for Canada: +7921 cases (now 1.2 million), +42 deaths (now 24077) since 23 hours ago20:13
CoronaBot/r/covid19: Brazil Rejects the Gamaleya Vaccine (81 votes) | https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/04/28/brazil-rejects-the-gamaleya-vaccine | https://redd.it/n0h1mx20:21
BrainstormNew from Scientific American: Health: CDC Drops Some Outdoor Mask Advice for Vaccinated People, Based on This Science → https://is.gd/9qirD120:21
LjLi finally got around to reading the results instead of just the abstract of https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.22.21255913v1.full.pdf and my god, it's written in a way that's hard to understand20:30
LjLespecially hard to understand the differences between BNT and AZ20:30
LjLmaybe i should just look at the attached tables instead20:32
BrainstormNew from Derek Lowe: @EricTopol: RT by @Dereklowe: When was the last time 48 out of 50 states were in case descent? A country-wide 25% decrease in the past 2 weeks in face of B.1.1.7 becoming dominanthttps://www.wsj.com/articles/vaccines-appear-to-be-slowing-spread-of-covid-19-infections-11619615436?mod=hp_lead_pos7https://is.gd/YCvaJ720:32
BrainstormUpdates for Spain: +8665 cases (now 3.5 million), +88 deaths (now 77943) since a day ago — France: +22664 cases (now 5.6 million), +354 deaths (now 103762) since 22 hours ago20:32
LjLi also don't understand the "effect" of being being between 21 and 0 days *before* vaccination20:37
LjLfrom the table on page 33, i don't really seem to see any obvious effectiveness except after the second dose (which was only evaluated for Pfizer)...?20:41
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Severe COVID-19 cases can be predicted by new test: As of April 2021, more than 3 million people worldwide have died of COVID-19. Early in the pandemic, researchers developed accurate diagnostic tests and identified health conditions that correlated with worse outcomes. However, a clinical predictor of who faces the highest [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/hLwk3820:42
LjLand on page 35 there seems to be a reduction of risk for smokers, within p<0.001, so much for that study having been retracted (it's a least the second time i see a study with tables that indicate lessened risk for smokers, even though they don't *discuss* it in the study)20:43
LjLthey retracted that infamous one that does discuss it because some of the authors had conflicts of interest20:43
LjLwhich makes sense, for something this sensitive/"controversial" i wouldn't want the authors to fail to disclose that whoops, i've worked for tobacco companies20:43
LjLbut still, the results seem real to me when i check them against other studies20:44
LjLthe table on page 36 just makes me suspect again that BNT is just way more effective. there is no entry for 2 AZ doses, so i cannot *know*, but even comparing the entries for >21 days after first dose without a second dose imo BNT is on a trajectory to doing a better job, especially for symptomatic infection (kind of contrary to what is often stated about AZ, that it's good at keeping you from having symptoms or only mild symptoms)20:47
de-factohmm what did that one paper say? 8-fold breakthrough for SA VoC B.1.351? hence for a given VE = 0.95 = (ARU - ARV) / ARU = 1 - ARV/ARU = 1 - RR = 1 - 0.05, would it be VE = 0.6 = 1 - 8*0.05 = 1 - 0.4 ?20:52
de-factoand that was for BNT in Israel right?20:52
de-factoLjL, what was the result for AZ on South African B.1.351 again?20:53
ArsaneritVE for infection, for getting sick, for getting hospitalised, for needing intensive care, or for dying?20:53
LjLde-facto, something like 22% efficacy20:53
LjLwith a CI that went down to 020:53
de-factooh ok thats different then20:53
LjLand the 22% efficacy was just on "people in SA", not all of them may have had B.1.35120:54
LjLthis is just from memory though, but i think i can grab the relevant study fast enough20:54
de-factoVE from trials hence symptomatic infection, the 8-fold breakthrough is relative so probably does not matter too much?20:54
LjLhttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.10.21251247v120:55
ArsaneritGood that mRNA vaccines can be adapted quickly and production capacity has been increased tremendously and additional vaccines are on the way, then.20:55
de-facto.title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.06.21254882v220:55
Brainstormde-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Evidence for increased breakthrough rates of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in BNT162b2 mRNA vaccinated individuals | medRxiv20:55
LjLIn the primary endpoint analysis, 23/717 (3.2%) placebo and 19/750 (2.5%) vaccine recipients developed mild-moderate Covid-19; VE 21.9% (95%Confidence Interval: −49.9; 59.8). Of the primary endpoint cases, 39/42 (92.9%) were the B.1.351 variant; against which VE was 10.4% (95%CI: −76.8; 54.8) analyzed as a secondary objective.20:55
de-facto"Our results show that vaccinees that tested positive at least a week after the second dose were indeed disproportionally infected with B.1.351, as compared with unvaccinated individuals (odds ratio of 8:1)"20:56
de-factowow LjL they are quite confident to call that interval "confidence interval" :P20:57
de-factofrom your quote there i mean20:57
LjLyeah, i saw that. let's say that BNT is exactly 95% effectivy, then 5% against the original variant means that 8:1 brings you to 40% breakthrough with B.1.351, which would mean 60% efficacy, which is exactly what you get with Novavax (96% efficacy when no variant, 60% with B.1.351, iirc?)20:57
LjLde-facto, yeah ;(20:57
LjLanyway the lower bound is lower than the higher bound... compared to zero ;(20:58
de-factoyeah hence my assumption, from begin, that all of the vaccines need updates20:58
LjLde-facto, but will they get them? according to FDA and friends, 50% is minimum required, so 60% protection is still "okay"20:58
LjLi don't mean that i think it's okay, because i don't, but apparently they do20:58
de-factostill probably there is protection against severe progressions, because T-cell immunity reacts on smaller fractions of the antigen and therefore can not so easily evaded compared to the highly specific IgG antibodies20:59
LjLand AZ efficacy seems... honestly... maybe i just can't understand the UK study... but from those tables, to me, AZ seems next to useless20:59
LjLmaybe i shouldn't say this20:59
LjLhuge disclaimers, i don't understand statistics and really i don't understand anything20:59
LjLbut i really wish i was seeing much clearer numbers20:59
LjL(i mean the AZ efficacy in general, not against B.1.351, that's just abysmal)21:00
de-factoprotection got a range going from no protection at all, over protection against death, severe progression, symptomatic infection, asymptomatic infection and neutralizing immunity21:00
LjLyeah okay21:00
LjLi don't think in this UK study they even look at hospitalizations and deaths21:01
LjLthe Scottish study is better for that21:01
de-factodepending on vaccine efficacy and duration since vaccination it will be somewhere in that range, going from the very mildest towards the other end with time21:01
LjLand maybe it's just better overall, since this one seems just badly written to me21:01
LjLmaybe the study data are solid, the presentation is not21:01
de-factowe also have to keep in mind that vaccine trials were done in the very peak of those immune reactions, they wane off with time, so also the results for preventing transmission21:01
de-factoalso there are different kinds of antibodies, the unspecific but fast IgM (that vanish pretty quickly and also might not be specific enough to determine SARS-CoV-2 immune reaction)21:02
de-factothen the more specific IgA antibodies that protect mucus from infecitons, they actually might be able to completely block infection, hence sterilizing immunity, but also they vanish after 2-3 months or such21:03
de-factothen there are the highly specific IgG antibodies that are not present on the mucus (hence maybe not block initial infection entirely), but in the blood and tissue, they protect from progressions and are very long lasting, e.g. months to years21:04
de-factoand of course all the other arms of the immune system, T-cell immunity, natural killer cells and all those21:05
de-factosuch innate immunity is assumed to also play quite a role in COVID, how else could children with naive immune system be so effective in preventing symptomatic COVID21:06
LjLde-facto, look at https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2821%2900677-2 (the scottish study) table on page 8-9... this looks weird... do you also understand that AZ brings the risk of hospitalization to virtually 0 for people younger than 80 after 28 days from the first dose, while BNT looks much less impressive, and somehow for people between 65-79 the risk actually *increases* compared to unvaccinated the longer from the first dose,21:10
LjLalthough that's before adjustment for confounders i know how about?21:10
LjLthis would be good news for AZ recipients, but... it looks so different, opposite almost, from the "efficacy" in the UK study. yeah i know "efficacy" and "hospitalizations" are not the same thing, but still, it's quite striking, unless i just misunderstand the data21:10
BrainstormNew from CIDRAP: News Scan for Apr 28, 2021: COVID inflammatory syndrome disparities Pediatric hospitalizations during COVID-19 HPV vaccination rates → https://is.gd/lfIU3m21:14
de-factowhere those done in exactly the same population and locaton at same time?21:16
ArsaneritWe'll find out.21:21
LjLde-facto, probably not exactly, as AZ and BNT were likely given to different demographics... but even if you at the "adjusted-for-everything RR", the difference in effect is still there, except you no longer have the *negative* efficacy of BNT21:21
LjL"Adjusted for time (in weeks), age, sex, Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation, number of rtPCR tests before vaccination, and number of underlying medical conditions."21:21
LjLlooks adjusted for like a lot of things i guess :P21:21
LjLon page 3 you see the pretty big difference in demographics (age) of people vaccinated with AZ vs BNT21:22
LjLthere's a graph21:22
LjLthe older you go, the more AZ, basically21:22
LjLbut that may hint there could be other differences than just age too21:23
LjLthis study looks so much easier to parse than the UK one21:23
ArsaneritI thought UK was almost exclusively using Vaxzevria?21:24
LjLno21:24
LjLthey use it extensively but they'de definitely used a lot of Pfizer/BNT too21:24
LjLi believe they've just ordered an additional 60 million doses of it21:25
ArsaneritI see, I was wrong then.21:26
LjL"Finally,  we  were  unable  to  compare  vaccine effects between the two vaccines; this is primarily because of the non-experimental design of our study and because the target population differed between vaccines in this initial roll-out period."21:30
LjLhmm i guess it's really just that they have VERY limited amounts of people taking AZ in the "0.0%" spots21:34
BrainstormUpdates for Switzerland: +10 deaths (now 10617) since 6 hours ago21:34
BrainstormNew from Medical Xpress: Medical oxygen: Why it is lacking and how it is made: Difficulty breathing is one of the most common severe COVID-19 symptoms, and as photos of people waiting in long lines for oxygen canisters in India and elsewhere attest, supplies of medical oxygen are far from adequate everywhere in the world. → https://is.gd/kEByLH21:34
CoronaBot/r/coronavirus: CDC Updates Mask-wearing Guidelines. Easy-reading infographic! (10112 votes) | https://www.cnet.com/a/img/nQODLn1E-87XkQgOsnKXD9Fgo3w=/2021/04/27/6ba98fc9-0e2b-4b46-a863-9ea1637e0f05/324153-choosingsaferactivities11.png | https://redd.it/n0bpjx21:39
CoronaBot/r/covid19: SARS-CoV-2 antibody-positivity protects against reinfection for at least seven months with 95% efficacy (81 votes) | https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(21)00141-3/fulltext | https://redd.it/n0fbwe21:39
de-factowhat also could play a role is a what time in the immunogenic phase their hospitalization occurred21:41
de-factothey do their "first dose" schemes so do we have reference data from any trials for that?21:46
LjLde-facto, well the study does look at various times, just, apparently, AZ was given later so they don't have a whole lot of people for "late" times (like 48 days)21:48
de-factoi wonder how that correlates with VoCs in Scotland etc21:53
de-factoso they probably were done in the transition of B.1 to B.1.1.7 ?21:54
de-factodo they also had evasive mutants such as B.1.351 or P.1 contianing E484K et al?21:54
de-factohonestly i would expect pretty much similar protection from both vaccines against hosptalzation21:55
LjLi don't know about all the variants21:55
LjLwhy would you expect similar protection if the raw efficacy is quite different, though?21:55
BrainstormNew from WebMD: Anxiety and Anticipation: Rejoining a Post-COVID World: COVID-19 vaccines and CDC guidelines are letting us slowly return to a more normal lifestyle. Whether you’re an introvert or extrovert, a return to “normal” prompts strong feelings. → https://is.gd/bXvJRP21:55
de-factobecause both prime the immune system, e.g. T-cells etc hence allow them a time advantage to ramp up, i would think the more severe the endpoint the more similar the vaccines protections, but that is speculation21:59
LjLalright22:01
LjLi hope so22:01
de-factoNetherlands take back restrictions although their high weekly incidence of > 300/100k22:07
de-factonot a good idea22:07
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Consiglio dei Ministri n. 16 ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/consiglio-dei-ministri-n-16/16739 )22:24
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Convocazione del Consiglio dei Ministri n. 16 ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/convocazione-del-consiglio-dei-ministri-n-16/16741 )22:24
BrainstormUpdates for Netherlands: +12489 cases (now 1.5 million) since 20 hours ago — Germany: +12382 cases (now 3.3 million), +130 deaths (now 82586) since 16 hours ago22:42
de-factoat least in the UK that study was exactly in the transition period where B.1.1.7 took over22:45
de-factoso 2021-12-07 it was 49% 20E (EU1), 40% 20I/501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7) and 9% others and 2021-02-08 it was 95% 20I/501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7), 3% 20E (EU1) and 2% others22:46
de-factohttps://covariants.org/per-country22:46
BrainstormNew from CIDRAP: New hot spots emerge as states urge COVID-19 vaccination: Stephanie Soucheray | News Reporter | CIDRAP News Apr 28, 2021 Also, a study finds that fully vaccinated seniors have a 94% lower hospitalization rate. → https://is.gd/zFJ4Hl22:48
BrainstormNew from WebMD: Doctors Prescribing Opioids to COVID ‘Long Haulers’: Chronic pain from covid can linger for months after patients appear to recover from the disease. → https://is.gd/NB7v3I22:58

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