Brainstorm | New from Derek Lowe: @Dereklowe: I am really, really enjoying watching the coronavirus numbers improve here in Massachusetts as the number of vaccinations grows.A month ago we were heading back up again, but that has been stopped, hard. It’s wonderful to see. → https://is.gd/BJbKEs | 00:00 |
---|---|---|
rpifan | sad | 00:08 |
Brainstorm | New from Derek Lowe: @Dereklowe: R to @Dereklowe: We may even have an actual zero-deaths-from-coronavirus day pretty soon, which I believe would be the first since this whole nightmare started. Speed the day. → https://is.gd/cBf2f8 | 00:11 |
rpifan | i hope not | 00:12 |
CoronaBot | /r/coronavirus: China delivers 800 oxygen concentrators to India from Hong Kong, promises another 10,000 soon (10019 votes) | https://www.spotlightnepal.com/2021/04/27/china-delivers-800-oxygen-concentrators-promises-another-10000-week/ | https://redd.it/mzlpxy | 00:12 |
de-facto | well that almost is not measurable, how many outdoors infecitons happen relative to indoors | 00:20 |
de-facto | what scenarios to compare | 00:20 |
de-facto | at what distance? with masks? do people spit in each others faces? | 00:20 |
CoronaBot | /r/covid19: Evidence For Biological Age Acceleration And Telomere 2 Shortening In COVID-19 Survivors (95 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.23.21255973v1 | https://redd.it/mzv7od | 00:30 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Only one in four people experience mild systemic side effects from COVID-19 vaccines: One in four people experience mild, short lived systemic side effects after receiving either the Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccine, with headache, fatigue and tenderness the most common symptoms. Most side effects peaked within the first 24 hours [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/DIEzw4 | 00:32 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: A vaccine maker ruined 15 million doses. Its CEO sold $11 million of stock before that was public → https://is.gd/fb50v2 | 02:04 |
N1000_ | When will this epidemic end? | 02:09 |
N1000_ | Because i need to do some business and stuff, so tell me so that i can plan things. | 02:10 |
N1000_ | Any prophet here? | 02:10 |
rpifan | hopefully never | 02:10 |
N1000_ | Okay, any other prophets? | 02:11 |
N1000_ | Can't take the first one for granted, need more to calculate. | 02:11 |
N1000_ | rpifan do you like epidemics? | 02:12 |
oxek | there will never again be a time when there's no epidemic out there | 02:12 |
N1000_ | no more disco for us? | 02:12 |
oxek | disco in vr | 02:13 |
N1000_ | i want 70's disco | 02:13 |
N1000_ | with booze and bitches and all that | 02:13 |
N1000_ | oh my | 02:13 |
oxek | you can order all of that online | 02:13 |
N1000_ | the future is not pink at all | 02:13 |
N1000_ | that's virtual stuff | 02:14 |
N1000_ | what i'm supposed to do, to get some token to log into second life something | 02:15 |
N1000_ | okay forget about disco, how can i do old school business like intimidate my business partners with all that distance rules and maska | 02:16 |
N1000_ | damn | 02:16 |
N1000_ | can we just use the law of attraction, you know that "secret" from internet gurus, and make this covid shit go away? | 02:17 |
N1000_ | like we VIBRATE and think positively and this will magically go away | 02:17 |
oxek | it will go away the moment everyone follows our guidelines 100% of the time with no exceptions | 02:17 |
N1000_ | i follow the guidelines for one year man | 02:18 |
N1000_ | and i got nothing in return | 02:18 |
N1000_ | that's not fair business | 02:18 |
Quant | @n1000 May I ask why are you looking for a prophet? | 02:19 |
N1000_ | Quant why not? | 02:20 |
LjL | rpifan, sorry what the fuck? are you rooting for more deaths and more pandemic and more of all of this? | 02:20 |
N1000_ | i got 2 pfizer shots and still no disco | 02:20 |
N1000_ | hey LjL :-) | 02:21 |
N1000_ | LjL he's just trolling | 02:22 |
de-facto | look at China, in Wuhan they do pool party and disco again, look at NZ with open bars, look at Israel | 02:24 |
N1000_ | de-facto yes i saw it, amazing isn't it | 02:25 |
N1000_ | but unfortunately that's not in eurupe, are they more capable than us? | 02:25 |
LjL | yes | 02:26 |
LjL | i'd say after a year of consistent blunders, it's safe to say that yes | 02:26 |
N1000_ | what a fiasco | 02:26 |
de-facto | there is no reason we could not learn and transition to strict strategy too, hence also get the benefits | 02:27 |
LjL | we're reopening again "for the summer", right after saying we shouldn't repeat last summer's mistakes | 02:27 |
de-facto | well yeah and there is that, unfortunately in every EU country | 02:27 |
LjL | de-facto, you say there is no reason but there are usually reasons for things. why haven't we learned? why are we keeping making the same mistakes even though you and i know they're mistakes in advance? | 02:27 |
N1000_ | LjL, tourist country? | 02:28 |
LjL | in a way it's a similar mistake to think we "will" learn even though the evidence shows we consistently haven't | 02:28 |
LjL | N1000_, yeah | 02:28 |
de-facto | LjL, good questions, tbh i dont understand why | 02:28 |
derpadmin | without having the full thread, I would say selfishness and taking things for granted | 02:29 |
N1000_ | maybe because this is a gift from heaven for politicians? | 02:29 |
N1000_ | i see no other explanation | 02:29 |
LjL | derpadmin, well why are New Zealanders so much less selfish and taking-things-for-granted? | 02:29 |
LjL | N1000_, i find Australian government pretty scummy personally. why aren't they using it as a similar gift? | 02:30 |
derpadmin | LjL, very good question, have they done something differently | 02:30 |
LjL | well they've definitely done things differently | 02:30 |
derpadmin | because the virues does not care much about nationality | 02:30 |
de-facto | the only thing politicians really could earn credit points is by having success in containment, yet the very vast majority of them fails absolutely miserably | 02:30 |
LjL | what i don't understand is why we can't see that our ways have failed and maybe we should do theirs | 02:30 |
LjL | i think the EU being dysfunctional, and some countries being similarly dysfunctional within themselves with each region wanting to do its own thing, hasn't helped | 02:31 |
N1000_ | LjL no idea why | 02:31 |
LjL | other countries don't work the way the EU, which is like a country in some ways but not like a country in others, does (or doesn't) | 02:31 |
derpadmin | if we look at the US vs northern europe countries, there is a lot of things that could have been done better pre-covid, maybe it is the same mindset/dynamic | 02:31 |
LjL | so in my opinion the functioning of the EU is something we should look at to find answers | 02:31 |
N1000_ | probably less scummy than the EU government, can't really beat their greed | 02:31 |
de-facto | and by not achieving proper containment (e.g. pseudo-lockdowns etc) they ensure infections never really go down, elongating the time with severe problems, also for economy, almost indefinitely. R~1 is the very worse of all scenarios when there are high number of infections happening | 02:32 |
N1000_ | documented so many times, i highly doubt they are dumb | 02:32 |
Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +2400 cases (now 4.4 million), +12 deaths (now 127570) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +4450 cases (now 1.5 million), +15 deaths (now 17162) since 23 hours ago | 02:32 |
de-facto | the more R<1 the better for everyone suffering from the presence of the virus, especially economy | 02:32 |
LjL | in other news i have a sore throat and am feeling generally shitty | 02:33 |
finely[m] | https://pluralistic.net/2021/04/27/bruno-argento/#pharma-death-cult | 02:33 |
N1000_ | "so in my opinion the functioning of the EU is something we should look at to find answers" - "they should" | 02:33 |
N1000_ | but they don't | 02:34 |
N1000_ | it's easy for us and we | 02:34 |
N1000_ | we know what should be done, they aren't doing it, that's the problem | 02:34 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: As Covid sweeps India, experts say cases and deaths are going unreported → https://is.gd/8PiVf0 | 02:35 |
de-facto | there is only us, its worldwide, it wont be over till every country gets support and vaccines etc | 02:35 |
de-facto | we are all in one boat with this | 02:35 |
N1000_ | i see several boats | 02:35 |
N1000_ | definitely not in the same boat | 02:35 |
de-facto | just imagine, even if we all are vaccinated, if poorer countries still have a lot of ongoing infections its only question of time till the next evasive mutant is imported via airplane "free" traveling for vaccinated people, and it will be selected for being able to replicate in vaccinated population (otherwise it would not be able to be imported in such a way) | 02:36 |
de-facto | hence there is ONLY one solution: stop infections, worldwide, simultaneously. | 02:36 |
de-facto | we are in the same boat as long as global traveling is tolerated | 02:37 |
N1000_ | what about new strains, they appear like mushrooms after the rain | 02:37 |
LjL | too bad NASA said there is no risk of devastating asteroid within the next 100 years... | 02:37 |
LjL | N1000_, that's why de-facto says we should stop it simultaneously | 02:37 |
N1000_ | LjL aliens are the answer | 02:38 |
LjL | because if we leave parts of the world breeding new strains, eventually they'll reach everywhere else too | 02:38 |
LjL | i think what he proposes is not feasible, i'm afraid, but i understand why he proposes it | 02:38 |
de-facto | tolerating ongoing infections in partly immune populations is nothing less than bruteforcing immunity, breeding for new evasive mutants | 02:38 |
N1000_ | chinese are the least disciplined nation but they are blessed with oppressive government in this case | 02:39 |
ryouma | idr if it was de-facto whose emasures i encountered last time but the us would instigate a rebellion if some of the measures were taken. | 02:40 |
de-facto | china was smart enough to have an extremely aggressive and strict containment strategy and stick to it without compromise | 02:40 |
LjL | N1000_, i don't know if disciplined, but they were heavily encouraged to report on their neighbors breaking rules in Wuhan. which is creepy if you ask me... but here, there was a big scene when someone famous said on the internet that he *did* report a neighbor for an illegal party, with tons of people saying he was a snitch and all sorts of bad things about it | 02:40 |
ryouma | taiwan dtrt | 02:40 |
ryouma | a thousand cases or so. 13 deaths or so. total. | 02:41 |
ryouma | a few countries did | 02:41 |
N1000_ | antarctica is pretty safe though | 02:41 |
LjL | i think one thing is the government posting "Report your neighbor if you see them doing suspicious COVIDy things!" on houses, not a very good thing imo, but then another thing is virtually crucifying someone for actually reporting something that is, factually, illegal to the police | 02:41 |
N1000_ | covidy hahaha | 02:42 |
LjL | N1000_, well i can't guarantee an accurate translation, i don't speak chinese... wo bu... speak... chinese | 02:43 |
de-facto | .title https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD/ <-- take the slider back to 2020, China is one of the few countries that always had economic growth in 2020 | 02:43 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.imf.org: error parsing title ('NoneType' object has no attribute 'string') | 02:43 |
de-facto | .title https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/countries/43/export-basket <-- China export | 02:44 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From atlas.cid.harvard.edu: The Atlas of Economic Complexity | 02:44 |
* finely[m] < https://matrix.org/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/rYnLpFuraIcWkmaCbfXYrflx/message.txt > | 02:47 | |
* finely[m] < https://matrix.org/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/pqzYbNKtLoSjtmcsMTxFdxfF/message.txt > | 02:48 | |
* finely[m] < https://matrix.org/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/HLSjgIcGQGzmBoYYCMmwQXaf/message.txt > | 02:49 | |
ryouma | like probably most regulars here, i was practically screaming at the screen for countries to increase their infrastructure for dealing with the virus including shutting down borders at least as early as the first case leaving chinese borders and probably earlier. but i'd have questions about who would die from lack of medicine and so on if such a hypothetical worldwide lockdown existed. | 02:50 |
ryouma | and lack of food and so on | 02:51 |
ryouma | idk what one would do to design such a thing even if populations and oligarchs and govs were willing | 02:51 |
LjL | finely[m], please don't do the thing with long messages including newlines + edits of such... in the IRC side that's just been three links to click on, i suspect most people just won't click on them. the Matrix+IRC integration is sometimes fraught with annoying differences | 02:51 |
ryouma | although perhaps better distribution of vaccines plus a lightweight lockdown would work, idk. but here i am reading that one doctor says not to get vaccine if history of angioedema and do not know why. and fining out that my carer has uniliaterally decided, provbably since long ago, to just go and do covidy things now that she is vaccinated. | 02:53 |
ryouma | i don't think my survival can be taken for granted or even considered all that high probability | 02:53 |
CoronaBot | /r/coronavirus: CDC says fully vaccinated Americans can go without masks outdoors except in crowded settings (10133 votes) | https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/04/27/cdc-guidance-masks-outdoors/ | https://redd.it/mzs6m9 | 02:55 |
finely[m] | <LjL "finely, please don't do the thin"> Sorry, didn't know that. | 02:56 |
N1000_ | "Vaccine scepticism among medics sparks alarm in Europe and US" | 02:59 |
N1000_ | "Signs that a relatively high number of healthcare workers are unwilling to receive the coronavirus vaccine in some parts of Europe and the US have alarmed politicians and health experts, as countries struggle to contain a surge in infections and carry out mass vaccination." | 02:59 |
LjL | there's already been talk of making vaccination compulsory for healthcare workers here for a while | 03:00 |
LjL | is anyone surprised more people are hesitant in Europe after the AZ rollercoaster? | 03:00 |
N1000_ | AZ screwed up big time | 03:00 |
LjL | ryouma, what vaccine did she get? | 03:01 |
ryouma | idk i think pfizer | 03:01 |
N1000_ | i completed pfizer ritual | 03:01 |
LjL | ryouma, chances that she'll infect you after getting Pfizer (well, after the second dose at least) are *really* slim imo | 03:01 |
N1000_ | second shot was quite an experience | 03:01 |
N1000_ | literally sick for several days with fever | 03:02 |
N1000_ | first was just a sore arm | 03:02 |
LjL | N1000_, i just read https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-04-people-mild-side-effects-covid-.html and i'm slightly surprised to find that AZ seems to have more side effects (more common anyway, not sure about intensity) than Pfizer even compared to Pfizer's second dose | 03:02 |
LjL | only slightly though, because so far the experiences i've heard have been from people getting Pfizer being just fine at least after the first dose, not so much with AZ | 03:03 |
N1000_ | it is quite discouraging a friend of mine is also fully vaccinated with pfizer but he got covid anyway, uk strain | 03:05 |
ryouma | N1000_: did he use ppe and distancing? | 03:06 |
LjL | N1000_, symptomatic, bad...? | 03:07 |
ryouma | or get tested for immunocompromised status? | 03:07 |
LjL | the UK strain probably take vaccine effectiveness down a notch in my opinion, even if the overall conclusion is "meh, pretty much the same" | 03:07 |
N1000_ | LjL, not bad, "feels like a flu" | 03:07 |
LjL | a flu can feel pretty bad :P | 03:07 |
LjL | but i guess when people say "feels like a flu", they don't remember their last actual flu very well | 03:08 |
N1000_ | yeah still a flu, no pneumonia, no complications | 03:08 |
ryouma | why do you think chances are slim? do we have data on transmission? do we think it will work against variants? | 03:08 |
LjL | good | 03:08 |
N1000_ | i guess without being vaccinated he might be in the intensive care | 03:08 |
N1000_ | just speculating | 03:08 |
N1000_ | but possible | 03:08 |
N1000_ | the thing is even after getting 2 shots i don't think i am protected from getting it, more like protected from covid complications | 03:10 |
N1000_ | and i hear comments like i have A CHIP that bill gates installed into the vaccine to depopulate sheep like me, quite seriously | 03:11 |
N1000_ | don't know should i laugh or feel sorry at those, probably both | 03:12 |
ryouma | why is depopulation desirable for overlords? don't they want more workers? | 03:12 |
ryouma | also why use a chip to depopulate? why not just a contraceptive or poison? | 03:13 |
N1000_ | hahahaha | 03:14 |
finely[m] | <N1000_ "AZ screwed up big time"> No, no one saw this coming. This is just how science works. | 03:15 |
N1000_ | finely[m]: i meant not respecting orders and selective caluclating exports | 03:16 |
N1000_ | that's why EU filled a lawsuit vs AZ | 03:17 |
finely[m] | <N1000_ "and i hear comments like i have "> Yer, he's working to kill people in other indirect ways. | 03:18 |
finely[m] | <N1000_ "finely: i meant not respecting o"> Ok | 03:19 |
LjL-Matrix | Internet outage boo | 03:22 |
LjL-Matrix | <N1000_ "the thing is even after getting "> If that's what you think about getting Pfizer, imagine what I'm going to think if/when getting AZ | 03:22 |
N1000_ | chip is there because bill gates can press the button and i'll be turned into the zombie | 03:23 |
N1000_ | think! | 03:23 |
N1000_ | LjL-Matrix you don't want AZ | 03:23 |
LjL-Matrix | I don't think I'm going to have a choice, whatever is available when my age range is due is what I get | 03:24 |
N1000_ | LjL-Matrix which country? | 03:24 |
LjL-Matrix | Italy | 03:24 |
N1000_ | ah, neighbour | 03:25 |
LjL-Matrix | The ha ha funny thing is my parents both got AZ, then just a few days later they announced we're out of AZ and now even their age range is going to get Pfizer | 03:26 |
LjL-Matrix | Imagine how much we laughed, so good | 03:26 |
N1000_ | N1000_ <--- sono istriano | 03:26 |
ryouma | is az a 2 shot thing? can you mix and match? | 03:27 |
ryouma | i.e. can they get pfizer for 2nd? | 03:27 |
N1000_ | 1 shot | 03:28 |
N1000_ | ryouma no mixing | 03:28 |
N1000_ | 2 doses for AZ, sorry | 03:29 |
N1000_ | russian / chinese - 1 | 03:29 |
N1000_ | somehow pfizer / moderna mRNA vaccines seem to have the least side effects | 03:30 |
N1000_ | serious side effects though | 03:31 |
N1000_ | russian / chinese, i have no idea, they might be good? | 03:31 |
LjL-Matrix | ryouma: AZ is two shots, mixing and matching hasn't been tested, and anyway I've been told doses have been reserved for people's second shots (just their luck!) | 03:31 |
LjL-Matrix | I suspect mixing and matching would be fine really | 03:32 |
N1000_ | after all they all do the same thing | 03:32 |
LjL-Matrix | But I certainly wouldn't want to be the one making that decision without trials backing it | 03:32 |
LjL-Matrix | Yeah, they all end up with spike proteins in different ways | 03:32 |
N1000_ | istria is very disciplined, very few cases here, i think that is the most important key | 03:33 |
N1000_ | it was green zone for weeks with zero or few new cases... no vaccine will yield results as cautious behaviour | 03:33 |
LjL-Matrix | Disciplined, as all Italians | 03:33 |
* LjL-Matrix hides | 03:33 | |
finely[m] | <ryouma "is az a 2 shot thing? can you m"> I think the UK is running trials on mixed vaccines. Speculation is it might be better for the adenovirus based ones as some of the immune response on the second dose will be to the the adenovirus itself, not the COVID spike protein. | 03:36 |
LjL-Matrix | I guess maybe N1000 didn't like my tease ;( | 03:57 |
Quant | Whatcha teasing about? | 03:58 |
Quant | maybe we all a little too sensitive these days? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ | 03:59 |
LjL-Phone | Quant: well I implied Istria is Italy | 04:09 |
Quant | what is istria? | 04:10 |
Quant | is that the country of the i phone | 04:10 |
Quant | I guess we all could have a country named after ourselves followed by an stria? | 04:11 |
Quant | Quant-Stria is a land of over analysis with big ego with mostly passive aggressive demographics. | 04:12 |
de-facto | there are some news stating that the fatal COVID outcomes in India that occur not in a hospital would not appear in the official statistics, meaning all people that cant enter a hospital and either die at home or in a car in front of hospitals just get cremated in improvised places (e.g. parking places with lots of fires burning dead bodies) | 04:12 |
ryouma | uk yellow card https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/979485/COVID-19_mRNA_Pfizer-BioNTech_vaccine_analysis_print.pdf | 04:12 |
de-facto | question: if hospitals are full already, yet infections still on exponential rise, should we see a saturation in the official death rates despite in reality more and more dying off the record? | 04:13 |
ryouma | it is disappointing for that stuff to occur a year after they occurred in spain, italy, etc. | 04:15 |
de-facto | also how trustworthy can testing reflect incidence if there are places where every second test comes back positive? | 04:15 |
de-facto | i have to admit i doubt official numbers from india at the moment, just because i think they cant keep up with how fast cases and deaths are growing in reality | 04:17 |
de-facto | imho they should enforce lockdown as much as possible, for sure its difficult there, but they just HAVE to break that trend, exponential growth has to stop at any price | 04:18 |
de-facto | doubling every 2 weeks we might see millions of daily new infections in official numbers, in reality its probably already is more than a million new cases per day | 04:19 |
de-facto | btw this is not only a problem to india, its a danger for the whole world what happens there currently | 04:21 |
ryouma | by which you mean variants? | 04:21 |
ryouma | it is a humanitarian crisis that is for certain | 04:22 |
ryouma | india is the major supplier of generic medicines. i wonder if they will hold back exports, be unable to export due to manpower shortage or knock-on effects, or be denied exports. i wonder whether that is another potential danger to the world. | 04:22 |
de-facto | yes variants and exports of pathogen | 04:22 |
ryouma | i shudder to think of the caste and other prejudices that could affect their response | 04:23 |
ryouma | politics* | 04:23 |
de-facto | as well as resources, India is a big producer of pharma indeed | 04:23 |
de-facto | and we are talking 1366M people here | 04:24 |
ryouma | not sure what you are saying | 04:25 |
de-facto | 1380M even | 04:25 |
Quant | So is this a discussion of the variant possibility on over 1 Billion souls or that the rest of the world will not get their Pharma | 04:26 |
de-facto | that is a lot of life at risk, a lot of health that can be wasted and also a lot of processing power for breeding mutants | 04:26 |
ryouma | i don't know what you mean by variant | 04:26 |
Quant | Or we asking if Quality control of Pharma manufacturing would be affected since supply chain is connected to QC | 04:27 |
de-facto | those bad effects are not mutually exclusive they are all aspects of the same problem, the infections completely out of control, growing exponentially in India | 04:27 |
ryouma | i was just asking, independent of hte humanitarian crisis, the export of pathogen, and the export of variants, whether pharma exports will be affected, or even if there will be hoarding outside india in fear of that | 04:28 |
de-facto | India should get international help, but also their government has to enforce some containment in order to break that trend | 04:29 |
ryouma | there could be a lot of deaths outside india in addition if such occurred | 04:29 |
Quant | interesting if BIG pharma responds with contingency plans for production | 04:29 |
de-facto | actually that is the *only* thing that helps, enforcing absolutely strict containment without tolerating any compromises | 04:31 |
ryouma | wouldn't be a bad idea to supply food and medicine to those who need it while being contained... | 04:32 |
de-facto | but then i see reporting videos of elderly people in enormous queues in front of vaccination places, and without distancing | 04:32 |
Quant | maybe south Asia starts getting into Pharma production/distribution. They do everything else now anyways. | 04:32 |
ryouma | that could take a long time to set up | 04:32 |
ryouma | oh india is s asia isn't it? | 04:33 |
de-facto | its the definition of south asia | 04:33 |
Quant | I know.. Definition.. I am not allowed to identify any countries as many are sensitive these days. | 04:33 |
Quant | Cannot state countries that begin with the letter "C" or end in any "STAN".. #kidding | 04:34 |
ryouma | no idea what you are talking about. why would it be bad to id countries? wp says Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, | 04:34 |
ryouma | Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, the Maldives, and Sri Lanka. although there are certainly going to be others presumably perhaps sandalman islands etc. | 04:34 |
ryouma | um scratch that | 04:36 |
ryouma | making enough antivirals is presumably a concern right now | 04:39 |
-Synapsestorm- ⭕ भूकंप! Earthquake! 6.1 Mwp tremor, registered by alomax,early,quakenotices, occurred 35 minutes ago (02:21:25 UTC), during daytime, Northeastern India (26.77, 92.36) ± 3 km, ↓13 km likely felt 280 km away (in Guwahati, Nagaon, Mangaldoi, Tezpur, Marigaon…) by 1.2 million people → https://t.co/r8ZIvVIelN (webservices.ingv.it) | 04:56 | |
de-facto | making enough oxygen is the primary concern afaik, not to begin to speak of beds, meds, treatment, ventilators, personnel, etc | 04:58 |
de-facto | far better would be making enough contact reduction and containment though | 04:59 |
Brainstorm | New from Derek Lowe: @hildabast: RT by @Dereklowe: Important PPS: the Ad26 vax lots (first Sputnik V shot) not yet analyzed - this is what was identified in every lot of the Ad5 vax (2nd shot) HT @Dereklowe → https://nitter.dark.fail/hildabast/status/1387220013237497856#m | 04:59 |
LjL | so now my internet is "back" in the sense that my router's 5GHz radio is getting tethered mobile data from my phone, and sending it back to my LAN | 05:00 |
LjL | conveniently this whole thing happened while there was that big earthquake in India, so the bot couldn't early warn anyone since it wasn't there :( | 05:00 |
de-facto | welcome back LjL i guess? | 05:02 |
LjL | well, the internet outage is not resolved | 05:03 |
LjL | so kinda back | 05:03 |
LjL | maybe tomorrow i'll have to call support if it's still gone :( | 05:03 |
LjL | hate | 05:03 |
de-facto | for such scenarios i setup my openwrt with mwan3 and failover to USB3 adapter with SierraWireless EM7455 card, those work extremely well | 05:06 |
de-facto | at one time i did not even notice until the data plan was fully used up LOL | 05:07 |
LjL | de-facto, i usually failover to a backup phone with USB tethering, but last time i reflashed openwrt, i wasn't diligent and i didn't reinstall the USB-related packages | 05:13 |
LjL | so it was easier to set it up as a wifi client for my phone | 05:13 |
LjL | in theory i can switch it back to the USB setup now, but it's not working | 05:14 |
LjL | like, i've installed the packages i thought were the needed one, but it's still not obtaining an IP | 05:14 |
LjL | the thing is i don't care, because this setup is working fine | 05:14 |
LjL | de-facto, on the other hand, this looks scary :( https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.23.21255973v1 | 05:14 |
de-facto | .title https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-adopts-full-closure-until-may-17-over-covid-19-2021-04-26/ | 05:18 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.reuters.com: Turkey announces "full lockdown" from April 29 to curb COVID spread | Reuters | 05:18 |
de-facto | congrats to a very good decision | 05:18 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: The apocalyptic covid surge in India is killing so many people, many of the dead are not even being counted anymore. Modi is India's Trump. This is the result. → https://is.gd/3DthXt | 05:21 |
de-facto | uff that indeed looks scary at the first sight, i have to read that tomorrow though i am too tired to kill a full paper now | 05:21 |
LjL | they have some comments about it on reddit https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/mzv7od/evidence_for_biological_age_acceleration_and/ | 05:22 |
LjL | de-facto, i'm not sure about the timing of this lockdown in Turkey. look at the graph, http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Turkey&cumulative=no&smooth=yes this is when in Italy we'd be opening up. if Erdogan were extremely smart he'd say "okay, it's already going down, let's lock everything down so we'll get zero covid", but Erdogan being Erdogan, i bet he has other reasons to decide for a lockdown *now* | 05:23 |
LjL | "At a time when Europe is entering a phase of reopening, we need to rapidly cut our case numbers to below 5,000 not to be left behind. Otherwise we will inevitably face heavy costs in every area, from tourism to trade and education," Erdogan said. | 05:24 |
LjL | so it's all about allowing tourism in the summer -.- | 05:24 |
ryouma | why does a report of an earthquake early warn? | 05:25 |
ryouma | because electrons and photons travel faster? what is the difference in practice? | 05:25 |
LjL | ryouma, yes, people who are not right at the epicenter may get the information a few seconds before the shaking actually starts | 05:26 |
LjL | with my system, that's unlikely to happen most of the time | 05:27 |
LjL | but "real" earthquake warning systems do accomplish that | 05:27 |
LjL | in Japan, you can get up to a minute early warning | 05:27 |
LjL | California recently inaugurated their system | 05:27 |
Raf[m] | Does anyone have a definitive study that hypothesizes the probability of reinfection? Specifically, what's the scientific basis for convalescent subjects to get vaccinated? | 05:28 |
LjL | Mexico also has one (the first one in the world, although it's very "rough" now compared to Japan's one) | 05:28 |
ryouma | i can see that scientists would want to make sure thier experiments are ok, or if widespread with everybody hearing it who can hear, you could put down teh shelves you are buyilding or something. i guess. | 05:28 |
LjL | ryouma, to the individual, it gives time to find a hiding place and get there safely, or at least get away from shelves and objects that may fall. but the system is pervasive in Japan. it was initially developed by the railways for the shinkansen trains: the trains slow down or stop within seconds in areas where it's estimated that there may be damage to the tracks. people in cars also get warned and they can slow down to a stop and put on the parking | 05:32 |
LjL | brake, hospital equipment like MRI machines automatically turns off and "frees" the patient, gas valves automatically shut off... | 05:32 |
LjL | it's *very* useful and it's hard to explain this to people who have never heard of it and immediately think that since "we can't predict earthquakes", this must be bollocks | 05:32 |
LjL | it's true that we can't predict earthquakes, but early warning systems do no such thing | 05:32 |
ryouma | good points. but you ahve to realize where i am. japan at its best can get stuyff like that done pretty well. (at it worst you get fukushima etc.) having such a system really pervasive seems kind of unlikely but what do i know perhaps california is an advanced nation now. | 05:38 |
ryouma | i don't follow news as you can see.... | 05:38 |
ryouma | anyway i like discovering that somebody is organized | 05:39 |
ryouma | also of course tsunamis need early warning systems | 05:39 |
LjL | interesting to read you calling California a nation | 05:42 |
LjL | i'd have youtube videos to show you about earthquake early warning systems but i guess it would be hard for you to watch them | 05:43 |
LjL | yuta looks like they're in japan, maybe they can tell you how decent the EEW seems to be :P | 05:43 |
ryouma | i don't watchmost videos | 05:43 |
LjL | ryouma, well, with japan's early warning system the best way to demonstrate it is to show the warnings on NHK, or like people in houses receiving the warning from computers/phones/ad-hoc devices etc and then you can see the earthquake starting | 05:48 |
LjL | also there's an informational video on all the various ways the system is used, but i guess i covered most of the ones it covers | 05:49 |
LjL | anyway it's cool, and 10 seconds to a minute may seem like nothing, but they aren't nothing | 05:49 |
LjL | workers can stop doing what they're doing and protect themselvse | 05:49 |
LjL | if you're in a supermarket you can get away from the aisles that will drop all sorts of glass and stuff on you | 05:49 |
ryouma | so supermarkets broadcast it? | 05:56 |
ryouma | cn't imagine that getting past the lobbyists in the us | 05:56 |
ryouma | i mean only barely can i imagine it | 05:56 |
ryouma | if it were for a child abduction prevention system or some other topic maybe they would broadcast in supermarkets | 05:57 |
ryouma | it does sound good though. i have seen the warnings on recorded tv. | 05:58 |
ryouma | i wonder if hte sound is always hte same | 05:58 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Indian B.1.617 Covid Variant Found in At Least 17 Countries, Says WHO → https://is.gd/FmFrkI | 06:09 |
LjL | ryouma, most public places broadcast it | 06:09 |
LjL | ryouma, the sound is made available under a permissive license by the NHK as long as it's not misused. so it's not always the same but it often is | 06:09 |
LjL | the sound was studied specifically to alarm (dissonant tones) but in a subdued way, not a siren or anything like that | 06:10 |
LjL | catch your attention and put it in watch-out mode | 06:10 |
LjL | also most people have apps installed on their phones that give more specific warnings, telling them how many seconds they estimate until the S-waves come, and how strong it will be | 06:11 |
LjL | Yurekuru is probably the most common such app | 06:11 |
LjL | ryouma, you can also stare at this site and wait until it beeps and then it will show the earthquake expanding :P http://www.kmoni.bosai.go.jp/ | 06:12 |
ryouma | another lonely person hobby | 06:13 |
LjL | yeah :( | 06:13 |
ryouma | weird font | 06:13 |
yuta | LjL: yes, I live in japan :) | 06:22 |
yuta | This is rapid quake alert in japan. https://www.kyoshin.bosai.go.jp/ | 06:23 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Health: COVID 19: Experts on whether camphor helps improve oxygen levels, relieve respiratory distress → https://is.gd/o7e9wg | 06:33 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +14159 cases (now 3.3 million), +112 deaths (now 82456) since 23 hours ago | 06:36 |
ryouma | yuta: why do you think japan has been doing relatively well after the hokkaido thing? | 06:37 |
ryouma | also, were teh olympics cancelled | 06:37 |
yuta | ryouma: olympics is still on going :) | 06:41 |
ryouma | with crowds? | 06:41 |
yuta | and do you mean 'hokkaido thing' quake? that caused stopping electric power down. | 06:42 |
yuta | that was recoverd. | 06:42 |
ryouma | no i just meant the first lockdown outside china i heard of by the prefectural gov | 06:43 |
yuta | ryouma: maybe successed. and I don't know well :) | 06:50 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Indian Covid-19 variant found in at least 17 countries: WHO → https://is.gd/sRZohQ | 06:56 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +2946 cases (now 979034), +39 deaths (now 24104) since a day ago | 07:07 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Covaxin found to neutralise 617 variant of COVID-19: Dr Anthony Fauci → https://is.gd/iH950E | 07:07 |
yuta | ryouma: hokkaido thing is not lockdown. they stopped school. | 07:14 |
ryouma | i don't understand. but that's ok. i just meant why has japan been doing relatively well. | 07:16 |
ryouma | or so it seemed last i checked at least | 07:16 |
yuta | ryouma: we use chopstics , no hugs , putting off shoes on our rooms. | 07:17 |
ryouma | what about trains in big cities? | 07:18 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Indian-American Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal’s parents test Covid positive in India → https://is.gd/7cxkYG | 07:19 |
yuta | ryouma: no reguration. | 07:22 |
yuta | ryouma: so full of people in the train lol | 07:22 |
Brainstorm | Updates for France: +22272 cases (now 5.6 million), +275 deaths (now 103683) since 9 hours ago — Lombardy, Italy: +1369 cases (now 797658), +54 deaths (now 32742) since a day ago — Netherlands: +2676 cases (now 1.5 million), +16 deaths (now 17178) since 5 hours ago — Canada: +6844 cases (now 1.2 million) since 13 hours ago | 07:38 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: India's coronavirus death toll surpasses 200,000 after record case surge → https://is.gd/IhFblG | 07:42 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: US’s CDC eases outdoors mask-wearing guidelines for the vaccinated → https://is.gd/vOcsXI | 07:54 |
kreyren | Why is europe still so incompetent with vaccines | 08:12 |
blkshp | s/europe/EU | 08:19 |
Brainstorm | Updates for New Zealand: +1 cases (now 2610) since a day ago | 08:35 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: One dose of vaccine halves transmission - study: People who get coronavirus after their first jab are up to 49% less likely to pass it on, research suggests. → https://is.gd/AjFhBv | 08:51 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | April 28, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://is.gd/gcl6rn | 09:04 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Indian Covid variant found in at least 17 countries: WHO: The World Health Organization said Tuesday that a variant of COVID-19 feared to be contributing to a surge in coronavirus cases in India has been found in over a dozen countries. → https://is.gd/s9aYxD | 10:17 |
Brainstorm | New from EMA: What's new: Medicine: Human medicines European public assessment report (EPAR): Pregabalin Pfizer, pregabalin, Anxiety Disorders,Epilepsy, Date of authorisation: 10/04/2014, Revision: 22, Status: Authorised → https://is.gd/t56Wfg | 10:28 |
Brainstorm | New from StatNews: In the Lab: How blackouts, fires, and a pandemic are driving shortages of pipette tips — and hobbling science → https://www.statnews.com/2021/04/28/pipette-tips-shortage/?utm_campaign=rss | 10:42 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Health: COVID 19 vaccination and menstruation: Government debunks social media rumours → https://is.gd/LPEKPZ | 10:53 |
Brainstorm | New from BMJ: The robot will see you now: how machines could reshape post-pandemic medicine: During the early days of the pandemic, Bristol’s Southmead Hospital tested communication robots. Typically, these are “telepresence units”: a small screen and webcam mounted on a pillar that can be... → https://is.gd/84XFUz | 11:33 |
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Dichiarazione del Presidente del Consiglio Mario Draghi ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/dichiarazione-del-presidente-del-consiglio-mario-draghi/16737 ) | 11:49 | |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Bill Gates under fire for saying vaccine formulas shouldn’t be shared with developing world → https://is.gd/5wA9hO | 12:04 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Laos: +93 cases (now 604) since 19 hours ago | 12:13 |
Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Covid-19: India should stop mass gatherings and consider postponing elections, say doctors: A group of leading doctors has called for a raft of public health measures to support India as the country struggles to cope with a huge surge in covid-19 cases and deaths.In an open letter published... → https://is.gd/2k2Y1m | 12:15 |
pwr22 | <kreyren "Why is europe still so incompete"> I dunno, just blame Bill Gates yeah :P? | 12:26 |
pwr22 | On a serious note though, I do think Billy G has done some bad stuff during this pandemic (non-conspiracy mind control stuff) | 12:26 |
kreyren | sigh | 12:35 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Elderly man in UP[India] carries wife's body on cycle as villagers prevent cremation over fears of Covid → https://is.gd/BJUXSb | 12:38 |
Brainstorm | New from EMA: What's new: Medicine: Human medicines European public assessment report (EPAR): Vaxzevria (previously COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca), COVID-19 Vaccine (ChAdOx1-S [recombinant]), COVID-19 virus infection, Date of authorisation: 29/01/2021, Revision: 6, Status: Authorised → https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/human/EPAR/vaxzevria-previously-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca | 13:27 |
CoronaBot | /r/covid19: Longitudinal analysis shows durable and broad immune memory after SARS-CoV-2 infection with persisting antibody responses and memory B and T cells (81 votes) | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.19.21255739v1 | https://redd.it/mztxfc | 14:00 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: India's double mutant Covid variant found in 17 countries: WHO → https://is.gd/270Dyo | 14:03 |
Brainstorm | New from Scientific American: Malaria Vaccine Shows Promise--Now Come Tougher Trials: A previous version of an experimental malaria vaccine was trialed at Ewin Polyclinic in Cape Coast, Ghana. → https://is.gd/6vm9lX | 14:15 |
Brainstorm | New from ECDC: SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern pose a higher risk for hospitalisation and intensive care admission: Since the discovery of SARS-CoV-2, three variants of concern (VOC), first identified in the United Kingdom (B.1.1.7), South Africa (B.1.351), and Brazil (P.1), have been associated with higher transmissibility and severity of disease, with [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/btVETD | 14:39 |
Brainstorm | New from Politico: Finnish government avoids collapse: A compromise deal to keep the government alive also means Finland is likely to pass the EU's coronavirus recovery package. → https://is.gd/AQx5ki | 14:51 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Mongolia: +1171 cases (now 33608), +9 deaths (now 97) since 15 hours ago | 15:14 |
Brainstorm | New from Derek Lowe: @adamfeuerstein: RT by @Dereklowe: How blackouts, fires, and a pandemic are driving shortages of pipette tips — and hobbling science https://www.statnews.com/2021/04/28/pipette-tips-shortage/ via @sheridan_kate → https://is.gd/65Aota | 15:16 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +12 deaths (now 10607) since 23 hours ago | 15:33 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Destination of the week: Seychelles to allow entry to vaccinated visitors from India → https://is.gd/2eybED | 15:39 |
CoronaBot | /r/covid19: Vaccine side-effects and SARS-CoV-2 infection after vaccination in users of the COVID Symptom Study app in the UK: a prospective observational study (83 votes) | https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00224-3/fulltext | https://redd.it/n0au79 | 15:43 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Preference for AstraZeneca vaccine declines—but vaccine confidence undented: The public's preference for the AstraZeneca COVID vaccine has declined since last month, and belief that it causes blood clots has increased—but despite this, vaccine confidence is higher than it was towards the end of 2020, and there has been a [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/MGdg6Z | 16:14 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Dr Fauci says rich countries have failed India by focusing on themselves during Covid. Chief medical adviser says situation is ‘tragic’ and Covaxx not enough → https://is.gd/zxnWUU | 16:39 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: BioNTech boss: Europe will reach herd immunity this summer: Europe can achieve herd immunity against the coronavirus within three to four months, the head of German pharmaceutical company BioNTech, which developed the first widely approved COVID-19 vaccine with U.S. partner Pfizer, said Wednesday. → https://is.gd/kJ8Q42 | 16:51 |
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Dichiarazione del Presidente del Consiglio Mario Draghi sulla missione di assistenza sanitaria in India ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/dichiarazione-del-presidente-del-consiglio-mario-draghi-sulla-missione-di-assistenza ) | 16:54 | |
Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +15557 cases (now 3.3 million), +192 deaths (now 82536) since 23 hours ago | 17:13 |
Brainstorm | New from Derek Lowe: @Dereklowe: The Brazilian authorities reject the Russian Gamaleya vaccine, citing (among other things) the presence of replicating adenovirus. What's that mean, and what does that mean for them?https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/04/28/brazil-rejects-the-gamaleya-vaccine → https://nitter.dark.fail/Dereklowe/status/1387424112990162951#m | 17:15 |
Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): COVID-19 Antibody Responses In Cystic Fibrosis → https://is.gd/h0QZE9 | 17:38 |
Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): COVID-19 and Multiple Sclerosis Disease Modifying Therapies → https://is.gd/v1FXig | 18:02 |
Brainstorm | New from Derek Lowe: @Dereklowe: The behavior of the official Sputnik-V Twitter account and its backers is disgusting. They should remove their lies and propaganda from this platform, or Twitter should do it for them. @sputnikvaccine @jack @TwitterSupport [... want %more?] → https://nitter.dark.fail/Dereklowe/status/1387438772409806855#m | 18:13 |
Brainstorm | New from Politico: UK buys extra 60 million doses of BioNTech/Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine: The U.K. has purchased a further 60 million doses of BioNTech/Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine to support its planned booster program from the fall, the government announced today. The order brings the total number of doses of the jab bought by the U.K. to 100 million — [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/wLkDG3 | 18:36 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +8 deaths (now 10615) since 3 hours ago | 18:40 |
Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Covid-19: One dose of vaccine cuts risk of passing on infection by as much as 50%, research shows: Adults infected with covid-19 three weeks after receiving one dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine were 38-49% less likely to pass the virus on to their household contacts than... → https://is.gd/RUgUn3 | 18:46 |
LjL | okay i think i should add this to... probably a number of other "evidence of reduced infectiousness after vaccine" papers that i have *not* added to the page, and that people often ask about or even outright reject as a possibility (somehow) | 19:00 |
LjL | so yeah, i'll add this, if you recall other similar studies or even good keywords to find them again, thank you very much | 19:00 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Life Positive: Live your gay millennial pandemic fantasy in Stardew Valley → https://is.gd/7sXUF9 | 19:06 |
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Recent Commits to links:master: Add Public Health England report on reduced infectiousness after rece… ( https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/4eb1557016c337aa34ed02391d628090163befe0 ) | 19:20 | |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: As India helped others, so must we in their time of need, says Prince Charles in COVID-aid appeal → https://is.gd/u4cZgk | 19:28 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +13382 cases (now 4.0 million), +344 deaths (now 120256) since a day ago | 19:36 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Researchers develop 20-minute saliva-based COVID-19 test: Researchers at the University of Waterloo are developing a new COVID-19 test that can be administered at home using saliva, aiming to deliver a positive or negative result in less than 20 minutes. → https://is.gd/MHdXlB | 20:11 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +7921 cases (now 1.2 million), +42 deaths (now 24077) since 23 hours ago | 20:13 |
CoronaBot | /r/covid19: Brazil Rejects the Gamaleya Vaccine (81 votes) | https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/04/28/brazil-rejects-the-gamaleya-vaccine | https://redd.it/n0h1mx | 20:21 |
Brainstorm | New from Scientific American: Health: CDC Drops Some Outdoor Mask Advice for Vaccinated People, Based on This Science → https://is.gd/9qirD1 | 20:21 |
LjL | i finally got around to reading the results instead of just the abstract of https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.22.21255913v1.full.pdf and my god, it's written in a way that's hard to understand | 20:30 |
LjL | especially hard to understand the differences between BNT and AZ | 20:30 |
LjL | maybe i should just look at the attached tables instead | 20:32 |
Brainstorm | New from Derek Lowe: @EricTopol: RT by @Dereklowe: When was the last time 48 out of 50 states were in case descent? A country-wide 25% decrease in the past 2 weeks in face of B.1.1.7 becoming dominanthttps://www.wsj.com/articles/vaccines-appear-to-be-slowing-spread-of-covid-19-infections-11619615436?mod=hp_lead_pos7 → https://is.gd/YCvaJ7 | 20:32 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Spain: +8665 cases (now 3.5 million), +88 deaths (now 77943) since a day ago — France: +22664 cases (now 5.6 million), +354 deaths (now 103762) since 22 hours ago | 20:32 |
LjL | i also don't understand the "effect" of being being between 21 and 0 days *before* vaccination | 20:37 |
LjL | from the table on page 33, i don't really seem to see any obvious effectiveness except after the second dose (which was only evaluated for Pfizer)...? | 20:41 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Severe COVID-19 cases can be predicted by new test: As of April 2021, more than 3 million people worldwide have died of COVID-19. Early in the pandemic, researchers developed accurate diagnostic tests and identified health conditions that correlated with worse outcomes. However, a clinical predictor of who faces the highest [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/hLwk38 | 20:42 |
LjL | and on page 35 there seems to be a reduction of risk for smokers, within p<0.001, so much for that study having been retracted (it's a least the second time i see a study with tables that indicate lessened risk for smokers, even though they don't *discuss* it in the study) | 20:43 |
LjL | they retracted that infamous one that does discuss it because some of the authors had conflicts of interest | 20:43 |
LjL | which makes sense, for something this sensitive/"controversial" i wouldn't want the authors to fail to disclose that whoops, i've worked for tobacco companies | 20:43 |
LjL | but still, the results seem real to me when i check them against other studies | 20:44 |
LjL | the table on page 36 just makes me suspect again that BNT is just way more effective. there is no entry for 2 AZ doses, so i cannot *know*, but even comparing the entries for >21 days after first dose without a second dose imo BNT is on a trajectory to doing a better job, especially for symptomatic infection (kind of contrary to what is often stated about AZ, that it's good at keeping you from having symptoms or only mild symptoms) | 20:47 |
de-facto | hmm what did that one paper say? 8-fold breakthrough for SA VoC B.1.351? hence for a given VE = 0.95 = (ARU - ARV) / ARU = 1 - ARV/ARU = 1 - RR = 1 - 0.05, would it be VE = 0.6 = 1 - 8*0.05 = 1 - 0.4 ? | 20:52 |
de-facto | and that was for BNT in Israel right? | 20:52 |
de-facto | LjL, what was the result for AZ on South African B.1.351 again? | 20:53 |
Arsanerit | VE for infection, for getting sick, for getting hospitalised, for needing intensive care, or for dying? | 20:53 |
LjL | de-facto, something like 22% efficacy | 20:53 |
LjL | with a CI that went down to 0 | 20:53 |
de-facto | oh ok thats different then | 20:53 |
LjL | and the 22% efficacy was just on "people in SA", not all of them may have had B.1.351 | 20:54 |
LjL | this is just from memory though, but i think i can grab the relevant study fast enough | 20:54 |
de-facto | VE from trials hence symptomatic infection, the 8-fold breakthrough is relative so probably does not matter too much? | 20:54 |
LjL | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.10.21251247v1 | 20:55 |
Arsanerit | Good that mRNA vaccines can be adapted quickly and production capacity has been increased tremendously and additional vaccines are on the way, then. | 20:55 |
de-facto | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.06.21254882v2 | 20:55 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Evidence for increased breakthrough rates of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in BNT162b2 mRNA vaccinated individuals | medRxiv | 20:55 |
LjL | In the primary endpoint analysis, 23/717 (3.2%) placebo and 19/750 (2.5%) vaccine recipients developed mild-moderate Covid-19; VE 21.9% (95%Confidence Interval: −49.9; 59.8). Of the primary endpoint cases, 39/42 (92.9%) were the B.1.351 variant; against which VE was 10.4% (95%CI: −76.8; 54.8) analyzed as a secondary objective. | 20:55 |
de-facto | "Our results show that vaccinees that tested positive at least a week after the second dose were indeed disproportionally infected with B.1.351, as compared with unvaccinated individuals (odds ratio of 8:1)" | 20:56 |
de-facto | wow LjL they are quite confident to call that interval "confidence interval" :P | 20:57 |
de-facto | from your quote there i mean | 20:57 |
LjL | yeah, i saw that. let's say that BNT is exactly 95% effectivy, then 5% against the original variant means that 8:1 brings you to 40% breakthrough with B.1.351, which would mean 60% efficacy, which is exactly what you get with Novavax (96% efficacy when no variant, 60% with B.1.351, iirc?) | 20:57 |
LjL | de-facto, yeah ;( | 20:57 |
LjL | anyway the lower bound is lower than the higher bound... compared to zero ;( | 20:58 |
de-facto | yeah hence my assumption, from begin, that all of the vaccines need updates | 20:58 |
LjL | de-facto, but will they get them? according to FDA and friends, 50% is minimum required, so 60% protection is still "okay" | 20:58 |
LjL | i don't mean that i think it's okay, because i don't, but apparently they do | 20:58 |
de-facto | still probably there is protection against severe progressions, because T-cell immunity reacts on smaller fractions of the antigen and therefore can not so easily evaded compared to the highly specific IgG antibodies | 20:59 |
LjL | and AZ efficacy seems... honestly... maybe i just can't understand the UK study... but from those tables, to me, AZ seems next to useless | 20:59 |
LjL | maybe i shouldn't say this | 20:59 |
LjL | huge disclaimers, i don't understand statistics and really i don't understand anything | 20:59 |
LjL | but i really wish i was seeing much clearer numbers | 20:59 |
LjL | (i mean the AZ efficacy in general, not against B.1.351, that's just abysmal) | 21:00 |
de-facto | protection got a range going from no protection at all, over protection against death, severe progression, symptomatic infection, asymptomatic infection and neutralizing immunity | 21:00 |
LjL | yeah okay | 21:00 |
LjL | i don't think in this UK study they even look at hospitalizations and deaths | 21:01 |
LjL | the Scottish study is better for that | 21:01 |
de-facto | depending on vaccine efficacy and duration since vaccination it will be somewhere in that range, going from the very mildest towards the other end with time | 21:01 |
LjL | and maybe it's just better overall, since this one seems just badly written to me | 21:01 |
LjL | maybe the study data are solid, the presentation is not | 21:01 |
de-facto | we also have to keep in mind that vaccine trials were done in the very peak of those immune reactions, they wane off with time, so also the results for preventing transmission | 21:01 |
de-facto | also there are different kinds of antibodies, the unspecific but fast IgM (that vanish pretty quickly and also might not be specific enough to determine SARS-CoV-2 immune reaction) | 21:02 |
de-facto | then the more specific IgA antibodies that protect mucus from infecitons, they actually might be able to completely block infection, hence sterilizing immunity, but also they vanish after 2-3 months or such | 21:03 |
de-facto | then there are the highly specific IgG antibodies that are not present on the mucus (hence maybe not block initial infection entirely), but in the blood and tissue, they protect from progressions and are very long lasting, e.g. months to years | 21:04 |
de-facto | and of course all the other arms of the immune system, T-cell immunity, natural killer cells and all those | 21:05 |
de-facto | such innate immunity is assumed to also play quite a role in COVID, how else could children with naive immune system be so effective in preventing symptomatic COVID | 21:06 |
LjL | de-facto, look at https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2821%2900677-2 (the scottish study) table on page 8-9... this looks weird... do you also understand that AZ brings the risk of hospitalization to virtually 0 for people younger than 80 after 28 days from the first dose, while BNT looks much less impressive, and somehow for people between 65-79 the risk actually *increases* compared to unvaccinated the longer from the first dose, | 21:10 |
LjL | although that's before adjustment for confounders i know how about? | 21:10 |
LjL | this would be good news for AZ recipients, but... it looks so different, opposite almost, from the "efficacy" in the UK study. yeah i know "efficacy" and "hospitalizations" are not the same thing, but still, it's quite striking, unless i just misunderstand the data | 21:10 |
Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: News Scan for Apr 28, 2021: COVID inflammatory syndrome disparities Pediatric hospitalizations during COVID-19 HPV vaccination rates → https://is.gd/lfIU3m | 21:14 |
de-facto | where those done in exactly the same population and locaton at same time? | 21:16 |
Arsanerit | We'll find out. | 21:21 |
LjL | de-facto, probably not exactly, as AZ and BNT were likely given to different demographics... but even if you at the "adjusted-for-everything RR", the difference in effect is still there, except you no longer have the *negative* efficacy of BNT | 21:21 |
LjL | "Adjusted for time (in weeks), age, sex, Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation, number of rtPCR tests before vaccination, and number of underlying medical conditions." | 21:21 |
LjL | looks adjusted for like a lot of things i guess :P | 21:21 |
LjL | on page 3 you see the pretty big difference in demographics (age) of people vaccinated with AZ vs BNT | 21:22 |
LjL | there's a graph | 21:22 |
LjL | the older you go, the more AZ, basically | 21:22 |
LjL | but that may hint there could be other differences than just age too | 21:23 |
LjL | this study looks so much easier to parse than the UK one | 21:23 |
Arsanerit | I thought UK was almost exclusively using Vaxzevria? | 21:24 |
LjL | no | 21:24 |
LjL | they use it extensively but they'de definitely used a lot of Pfizer/BNT too | 21:24 |
LjL | i believe they've just ordered an additional 60 million doses of it | 21:25 |
Arsanerit | I see, I was wrong then. | 21:26 |
LjL | "Finally, we were unable to compare vaccine effects between the two vaccines; this is primarily because of the non-experimental design of our study and because the target population differed between vaccines in this initial roll-out period." | 21:30 |
LjL | hmm i guess it's really just that they have VERY limited amounts of people taking AZ in the "0.0%" spots | 21:34 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +10 deaths (now 10617) since 6 hours ago | 21:34 |
Brainstorm | New from Medical Xpress: Medical oxygen: Why it is lacking and how it is made: Difficulty breathing is one of the most common severe COVID-19 symptoms, and as photos of people waiting in long lines for oxygen canisters in India and elsewhere attest, supplies of medical oxygen are far from adequate everywhere in the world. → https://is.gd/kEByLH | 21:34 |
CoronaBot | /r/coronavirus: CDC Updates Mask-wearing Guidelines. Easy-reading infographic! (10112 votes) | https://www.cnet.com/a/img/nQODLn1E-87XkQgOsnKXD9Fgo3w=/2021/04/27/6ba98fc9-0e2b-4b46-a863-9ea1637e0f05/324153-choosingsaferactivities11.png | https://redd.it/n0bpjx | 21:39 |
CoronaBot | /r/covid19: SARS-CoV-2 antibody-positivity protects against reinfection for at least seven months with 95% efficacy (81 votes) | https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(21)00141-3/fulltext | https://redd.it/n0fbwe | 21:39 |
de-facto | what also could play a role is a what time in the immunogenic phase their hospitalization occurred | 21:41 |
de-facto | they do their "first dose" schemes so do we have reference data from any trials for that? | 21:46 |
LjL | de-facto, well the study does look at various times, just, apparently, AZ was given later so they don't have a whole lot of people for "late" times (like 48 days) | 21:48 |
de-facto | i wonder how that correlates with VoCs in Scotland etc | 21:53 |
de-facto | so they probably were done in the transition of B.1 to B.1.1.7 ? | 21:54 |
de-facto | do they also had evasive mutants such as B.1.351 or P.1 contianing E484K et al? | 21:54 |
de-facto | honestly i would expect pretty much similar protection from both vaccines against hosptalzation | 21:55 |
LjL | i don't know about all the variants | 21:55 |
LjL | why would you expect similar protection if the raw efficacy is quite different, though? | 21:55 |
Brainstorm | New from WebMD: Anxiety and Anticipation: Rejoining a Post-COVID World: COVID-19 vaccines and CDC guidelines are letting us slowly return to a more normal lifestyle. Whether you’re an introvert or extrovert, a return to “normal” prompts strong feelings. → https://is.gd/bXvJRP | 21:55 |
de-facto | because both prime the immune system, e.g. T-cells etc hence allow them a time advantage to ramp up, i would think the more severe the endpoint the more similar the vaccines protections, but that is speculation | 21:59 |
LjL | alright | 22:01 |
LjL | i hope so | 22:01 |
de-facto | Netherlands take back restrictions although their high weekly incidence of > 300/100k | 22:07 |
de-facto | not a good idea | 22:07 |
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Consiglio dei Ministri n. 16 ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/consiglio-dei-ministri-n-16/16739 ) | 22:24 | |
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Convocazione del Consiglio dei Ministri n. 16 ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/convocazione-del-consiglio-dei-ministri-n-16/16741 ) | 22:24 | |
Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +12489 cases (now 1.5 million) since 20 hours ago — Germany: +12382 cases (now 3.3 million), +130 deaths (now 82586) since 16 hours ago | 22:42 |
de-facto | at least in the UK that study was exactly in the transition period where B.1.1.7 took over | 22:45 |
de-facto | so 2021-12-07 it was 49% 20E (EU1), 40% 20I/501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7) and 9% others and 2021-02-08 it was 95% 20I/501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7), 3% 20E (EU1) and 2% others | 22:46 |
de-facto | https://covariants.org/per-country | 22:46 |
Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: New hot spots emerge as states urge COVID-19 vaccination: Stephanie Soucheray | News Reporter | CIDRAP News Apr 28, 2021 Also, a study finds that fully vaccinated seniors have a 94% lower hospitalization rate. → https://is.gd/zFJ4Hl | 22:48 |
Brainstorm | New from WebMD: Doctors Prescribing Opioids to COVID ‘Long Haulers’: Chronic pain from covid can linger for months after patients appear to recover from the disease. → https://is.gd/NB7v3I | 22:58 |
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