| dTal | except that studies cost time and therefore lives | 00:00 |
|---|---|---|
| LjL | i think we've already seen enough reputation-damaging, however rare, side effects to avoid that | 00:00 |
| LjL | so does not testing things | 00:00 |
| dTal | I think medicine's slavish adherence to "first do no harm" is a sort of like a solution to a trolley problem; the wrong solution | 00:01 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +4974 cases (now 3.7 million), +249 deaths (now 90236) since 19 hours ago | 00:02 |
| dTal | it's why there are pushes for "right to try" legislation - because doctors would rather keep their hands clean and let you die "naturally" than experiment with something that might save you or might kill you faster | 00:03 |
| LjL | we barely understand "why/how things work" in many areas of medicine, and that includes the immune system in large part. so i don't think that's a science where you should take it for granted just because there isn't a "theoretical reason" it could go wrong | 00:05 |
| dTal | I think there's balance | 00:06 |
| LjL | i think the vaccines have been deployed very quickly, as quickly as reasonable, and pushing things further would be verging on reckless | 00:06 |
| dTal | funny you should say that | 00:06 |
| LjL | how so | 00:07 |
| dTal | where's that link... | 00:07 |
| dTal | can't find it, ##coronalinks is awash with Brainstorm scrapes :/ | 00:08 |
| dTal | something about speeding the approval process of vaccines by a huge amount | 00:09 |
| dTal | it was only in the past day :/ | 00:09 |
| LjL | | grep -v Brainstorm? | 00:09 |
| LjL | i mean, maybe it should be sped up compared to the usual 10 to 20 years of meddling | 00:09 |
| LjL | not sure it should be sped up compared to what's been done for COVID, except for the inevitable speed-up on variant vaccines we'll have to do | 00:10 |
| dTal | Hmmm... I think it compromises ##coronalinks if it's filled with autogenerated stuff | 00:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro was fined $100 Saturday for violating Covid-19 containment measures in Sao Paulo state by failing to wear a face mask and provoking huge crowds at a motorcycle rally for supporters → https://is.gd/3djYqE | 00:10 |
| dTal | see do we really need that ^ | 00:10 |
| LjL | i don't know, it's the same as what tinsoldier used to do | 00:10 |
| dTal | hm, I don't think they went in the link channel though? | 00:11 |
| dTal | saying that I see CoronaBot is doing exactly that in the old network | 00:11 |
| dTal | oh well | 00:11 |
| LjL | yes they did | 00:12 |
| dTal | anyway - I'm not at all sure it's defensible that the vaccine rollout was fast enough | 00:12 |
| dTal | we had vaccines what, a few weeks in? And I just got vaccinated last week, over a year and four major variants later | 00:13 |
| dTal | I don't think that's acceptab'e | 00:13 |
| dTal | that's milliions of preventable deaths | 00:13 |
| LjL | you wanted to be vaccinated with the vaccines made a few weeks in and barely tested on animals? | 00:14 |
| LjL | i mean the deployment has been slow, especially so in the EU compared to the UK | 00:14 |
| LjL | but that's another matter, i should have said the approval | 00:14 |
| LjL | the approval has also wasted a bit of time in the EU that i'm not entirely clear was spent on making sure they worked rather than on paperwork, compared to the UK and US | 00:15 |
| LjL | but really i don't know if the UK and US should have done anything much sooner before there were decent-confidence data on efficacy | 00:15 |
| LjL | ideally on people, not chimps | 00:15 |
| dTal | that doesn't take a year | 00:15 |
| dTal | a lot of it is medical ethics | 00:16 |
| dTal | they don't want to deliberately expose people so they wait around for people to be infected naturally and gather statistics | 00:17 |
| dTal | that's the part that takes time | 00:17 |
| dTal | they *could* whack the vaccine in a volunteer's arm and walk them through a covid ward with a mask and see what happens | 00:18 |
| dTal | that would give extremely good efficacy data very quickly | 00:18 |
| dTal | but muh ethics | 00:18 |
| dTal | better to let millions die in the meantime | 00:19 |
| dTal | I'm telling you, trolley problem | 00:19 |
| dTal | *without a mask | 00:19 |
| darsie | dTal: Did you ... right | 00:19 |
| darsie | They could save the volunteers with gamma globulin/plasma or whatever it's called. | 00:20 |
| darsie | if they get it | 00:20 |
| LjL | yes the magic cure that only exists for volunteers | 00:20 |
| darsie | It's very limitedly available. | 00:21 |
| darsie | Trump got it, IIRC. | 00:21 |
| dTal | obviously you'd give the best available medical care to such volunteers | 00:21 |
| dTal | but the existence of a "cure" isn't required to make this ethical, only informed consent | 00:22 |
| dTal | I'm sure plenty of people would do it just out of duty but also there's that little payoff of being first in line for the vaccine against the deadly disease | 00:23 |
| darsie | Would young ppl be good volunteers here? | 00:24 |
| LjL | as well as the payoff of being paid which has an importance inversely proportional to your existing wealth | 00:24 |
| dTal | also while we're on ethics - the wait around methodology isn't ethically free either, you have to inject *way* more people with the experimental drug in order to get the same efficacy statistical power | 00:24 |
| dTal | LjL: you would not pay them, just as we do not pay blood donors | 00:24 |
| darsie | Donating blood is low risk. | 00:25 |
| darsie | Has even benefits to know your health status. | 00:25 |
| LjL | but you do pay a lot of healthy people to get into trials, so i suspect if they *were* to do this, they'd listen to most of your advice here but ignore the "don't pay them" part unless they had swarms of unpaid volunteers coming in and not walking back when they hear there's no payment | 00:25 |
| LjL | darsie, also they give you cake | 00:25 |
| dTal | LjL: now THAT's a funny coincidence, I've been on a huge Portal kick | 00:28 |
| darsie | I stopped donating blood. | 00:28 |
| dTal | perhaps this explains my sudden blase attitude to human testing with questionable ethics | 00:29 |
| LjL | dTal, maybe it has been influencing your opinions on using people as scientific cannon fodder :P | 00:29 |
| dTal | jinx | 00:29 |
| LjL | %jinx | 00:29 |
| LjL | thought i wrote that | 00:29 |
| LjL | for years | 00:29 |
| LjL | always forget i haven't | 00:29 |
| de-facto | sure human challenge trials could possibly give data more quickly (and the ethics are being discussed in the UK afaik), but what about representing a cross section through a population with a vaccine trial cohort? | 01:15 |
| de-facto | that includes the very vulnerable and elderly, those in risk groups, those with HIV etc | 01:15 |
| de-facto | that kind of makes the ethics question of challenge trials much more severe, because then we would not only talk about exposing young and healthy with quite low risk (in thousands) to a potentially lethal pathogen, then we would talk about risk groups for which chances may be one in tens | 01:17 |
| de-facto | i think we could win time with other things, for example, why did we not start trials for each and every VoC with a new updated vaccine *immediately* when it could potentially produce a new wave? | 01:20 |
| de-facto | why arent we maxing out production capacities and focus on building more? we need many orders of magnitude more | 01:20 |
| de-facto | new updates should be tested in the corresponding waves, just so that such could be prevented from happening in other places | 01:22 |
| de-facto | but yeah maybe we will have the B.1.351 update for vaccines next year, over a year after its occurrence | 01:22 |
| de-facto | its going to be outdated by then i am pretty sure | 01:23 |
| de-facto | we have the technical ability, we know how to do it in safe way, it was proven to work, so why are we not putting in more effort into getting this done globally in a synchronized way? | 01:25 |
| de-facto | but yeah we also still have free international traveling for entertaining the careless, hence i wont even start to assume there is enough potential to address this on a global level, its going to become endemic and its our very own fault. | 01:27 |
| de-facto | its just not realistic to assume humans would be disciplined enough to fight something like this, in that way we proved that we are not ready to face something like a global pandemic | 01:29 |
| de-facto | we pretty much proved that we would fail miserably, if it was a more lethal pathogen maybe we would have put more effort into containment, yet i doubt we would have contained it given how many very stupid mistakes have been made, given how many scientific studies have been ignored, given how many politicians assumed they themselves would be more competent than scientists that invested the better part of their life into gaining competence in their | 01:31 |
| de-facto | field of research | 01:31 |
| de-facto | i have to say, unfortunately 2020 and also 2021 pretty much disappointed my hopes in that peoples capability to behave reasonable, sane and think about consequences of their decisions, it opened my eyes that most are just extremely stupid, dont care about any reasons or even about anyone else than themselves (including most politicians) | 01:34 |
| de-facto | unfortunately that also included some of my friends, i quit contact to them, i dont want to have anything to do with them anymore | 01:36 |
| de-facto | its not i could have discussed and maybe convinced them about other perspectives, its their perspective and that is a statement about who they really are, i am glad the pandemic opened my eyes, the slightest bit of conspiracy theories or anti-vaccination attitude, i walk away and they are burned in my eyes, forever. | 01:40 |
| de-facto | what i do like is that there is public discussion of scientists, that we have so many studies and ongoing research, i also feel quite well informed by public media, they do present a variety of scientific perspectives and also the podcasts are extremely helpful | 02:00 |
| de-facto | for my taste we could have much more of this | 02:00 |
| dTal | I have heard many people say the same, including myself | 02:14 |
| dTal | 2020 was a harsh lesson in the fundamental untrustability of humanity at large | 02:14 |
| dTal | I fear it has dire implications for our future | 02:15 |
| spybert | It clearly does. The orange one permanently lowered the standards for political conduct. Not that they were that high to begin with. | 02:17 |
| spybert | de-facto: A real genetically engineered biological warfare agent would have finished us fast. We obviously have no defensive capability whatsoever in that area. | 02:20 |
| de-facto | i fear the same, it clearly demonstrated a lot more problems that even the most pessimistic were assuming before 2020 | 02:22 |
| de-facto | my hope still is somewhat that not all opportunities to learn from this are wasted | 02:23 |
| de-facto | making the best out of this not only is about learning how to deal with the problem once it is global, its also about how to prevent all the mistakes that became obvious and lead to such a blazing fast spread | 02:24 |
| de-facto | when people talk about the "great filter" this is exactly the first thing that comes to my mind | 02:25 |
| de-facto | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter | 02:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Over 30,000 Indian children orphaned, lost a parent or abandoned in Covid pandemic, top child rights body says. It said that it made these children vulnerable to illegal adoption, trafficking and abuse → https://is.gd/Ns9GzG | 02:28 |
| de-facto | and btw the long term costs from this pandemic probably only become visible in a few years, my prediction would be that long covid will make it much more expensive than what we think now | 02:30 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Rwanda: +284 cases (now 28146), +2 deaths (now 370) since 20 hours ago — United Kingdom: +7750 cases (now 4.6 million), +14 deaths (now 128022) since 23 hours ago — France: +52 deaths (now 110413) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +997 cases (now 1.7 million), +2 deaths (now 17847) since 23 hours ago | 02:31 |
| de-facto | its not only about the healthcare costs that may be necessary for such longcovid cases, its also about the loss of the contribution they would be able to make to society without their longterm covid problems | 02:32 |
| de-facto | too many compromises have been made, every single one of them was totally in favor of viral replication though | 02:36 |
| de-facto | countries with stricter policies and less tolerance demonstrated that it would have been possible to contain the pathogen and prevent most infections | 02:37 |
| de-facto | AUS, NZ, China, etc | 02:40 |
| hirogen | as bad as it's been in the UK | 02:42 |
| hirogen | you just don't see it on the street | 02:42 |
| hirogen | everyone died in a hospital, pensioners home, or at their own home | 02:42 |
| hirogen | its DNA it's in our blood to survive | 02:42 |
| hirogen | so those that died it's like God's way of removing the weak and old | 02:43 |
| hirogen | thats why no one really gave a shit in the sense of a total global lockdown | 02:43 |
| bin | what | 02:52 |
| de-facto | well people dont die on the street until healthcare system is overloaded (see what happened in India not too long ago) | 03:18 |
| LjL | yuck | 03:20 |
| LjL | i guess it's bad to ban him after he left, right? | 03:20 |
| de-facto | this was nothing but the dress rehearsal for the next pandemic to come, and maybe the next will be even more challenging than this one | 03:21 |
| de-facto | that is exactly the reason why i think its urgently important not to waste the opportunity to learn, to address problems that became apparent, to improve concepts etc | 03:22 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Mozambique: +106 cases (now 71461) since a day ago | 03:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: More evidence emerges of India’s true death toll from covid-19 - New surveys corroborate earlier estimates that the number is some six times higher → https://is.gd/yaWs66 | 03:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Canada has rejected 300,000 doses of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine from the U.S. after it was made at a Baltimore facility riddled with contamination issues. → https://is.gd/vUewTY | 04:37 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +7654 cases (now 4.6 million), +13 deaths (now 128025) since 23 hours ago — France: +43 deaths (now 110421) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +953 cases (now 1.7 million) since 23 hours ago | 05:01 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +777 cases (now 1.1 million), +6 deaths (now 25081) since a day ago | 05:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from This Week In Virology: TWiV 768: Can nanobody stop these variants?: TWiV describes how human behavior, not increased transmissibility, led to increased spread of a SARS-CoV-2 variant throughout Europe in summer 2020, and nanobodies from camelid mice and llamas that efficiently neutralize variants of concern. → https://is.gd/xBaKuT | 06:12 |
| lavadonut | i got back from las vegas yesterday | 06:14 |
| lavadonut | what are the odds i got corona | 06:15 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Moscow, Russia: +6701 cases (now 1.2 million), +67 deaths (now 20838) since 23 hours ago — Distrito Federal, Brazil: +1254 cases (now 416129), +14 deaths (now 8937) since 23 hours ago — Moscow Oblast, Russia: +889 cases (now 280668), +8 deaths (now 6258) since 23 hours ago — India: +44060 cases (now 29.4 million), +3304 deaths (now 369056) since 22 hours ago | 07:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Covid-sniffing dogs are accurate but face hurdles for widespread use → https://is.gd/HZFrSj | 07:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Food & Wine: Pandemic bakers are going pro → https://is.gd/ZyJaFJ | 07:48 |
| ottavio | It's been more than 12 hours since my 2nd jab and I have apparently no side effects. Is it safe for me to go out? | 08:36 |
| lavadonut | which vaccine | 08:36 |
| ottavio | AZ | 08:37 |
| ottavio | 1st jab I was dead just a few hours after. | 08:37 |
| lavadonut | idk | 08:37 |
| lavadonut | i got moderna | 08:37 |
| finely[m] | <ottavio "It's been more than 12 hours sin"> You don't get full protection until weeks after the last vaccine. | 08:39 |
| ottavio | No I was talking of side effects, like fever or so | 08:40 |
| ottavio | It's a lovely day and I don't want to stay at home but don't want to risk collapsing | 08:40 |
| ottavio | like I did after my 1st jab | 08:40 |
| lavadonut | ottavio https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygI-2F8ApUM | 08:41 |
| ottavio | Sorry I dont click on YT links | 08:42 |
| lavadonut | i promise you won't regret it | 08:42 |
| lavadonut | if you click it, i'll click on any link you want | 08:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | June 13, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://is.gd/gJnB0x | 09:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Congo president says Kinshasa hospitals 'overwhelmed' by coronavirus → https://is.gd/tzXkUQ | 09:24 |
| ottavio | Is is a good idea to take a paracetamol before going out, in case side effects are delayed? | 09:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: COVID-19: Schools, colleges to remain closed till June 30 in Bangladesh → https://is.gd/PrR6Yv | 10:49 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Russia: +14723 cases (now 5.2 million), +357 deaths (now 126430) since a day ago | 11:01 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +5946 cases (now 3.7 million) since 18 hours ago | 11:38 |
| de-facto[m] | Make sure you eat good breakfast and drink enough take some water with you and going for a walk is a very good idea, movement is important. Idk about paracetamol without problems, you may not need that | 11:40 |
| de-facto[m] | I rather take stuff to prevent thrombosis in advance such as aspirin, nac etc | 11:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): China_Flu: WHO boss: China owes it to 3.75m dead to reveal Covid-19 origins → https://is.gd/GgnFYB | 12:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: At least 130,000 households in England made homeless in pandemic → https://is.gd/gBfvO8 | 12:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Brazil's Bolsonaro fined for mask violation in Sao Paulo → https://is.gd/U0nWMI | 12:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: UK says Delta COVID-19 variant 60 percent more transmissible → https://is.gd/dx8Itc | 13:17 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Indonesia: +9868 cases (now 1.9 million), +149 deaths (now 52879) since a day ago | 13:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: WORLD EXCLUSIVE: Footage proves bats were kept in Wuhan lab | Sky News Australia → https://is.gd/YlePIP | 13:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Coronavirus live: expected delay in UK lockdown easing backed in poll; G7 pledges more than 1bn vaccines | World news → https://is.gd/JuM7IM | 14:09 |
| darsie | lol at Brazil's Bolsonaro fined for mask violation in Sao Paulo :) | 14:17 |
| darsie | Doesn't he have immunity? | 14:18 |
| darsie | legally | 14:18 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Oman: +4415 cases (now 234634), +46 deaths (now 2513) since 3 days ago | 14:33 |
| darsie | What happens to the people issuing the fine? | 14:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Footage proves bats were kept in Wuhan lab → https://is.gd/aXRtds | 14:41 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Fiji: +104 cases (now 1118) since 21 hours ago — Nepal: +1694 cases (now 608472), +46 deaths (now 8412) since a day ago | 15:35 |
| dTal | I'm fairly horrified at the comments on this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAO68W7ZJc4 | 15:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): G7: World leaders promise one billion Covid vaccine doses for poorer nations → https://is.gd/FrUMH3 | 16:05 |
| ottavio | So I had my 2nd AZ jab yesterday and today (fingers xed) I have zero side effects. Is it a good or a bad thing? | 16:12 |
| cronos | How can having no side effect be a bad thing? | 16:22 |
| dTal | ottavio: short answer, neither: https://theconversation.com/no-vaccine-side-effects-dont-tell-you-how-well-your-immune-system-will-protect-you-from-covid-19-158728 | 16:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: As summit ends, G-7 urged to deliver on vaccines, climate → https://is.gd/QFk6NA | 16:26 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Moscow to give away free cars to spur people to get Covid vaccine → https://is.gd/3ZXjMh | 16:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Brazil's president received a fine in Sao Paulo for violating local coronavirus mask restrictions → https://is.gd/xr5Krk | 17:30 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Mauritius: +69 cases (now 1673) since 2 hours ago — Canada: +9 deaths (now 25900) since 21 hours ago | 17:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: On Uyghurs, Hong Kong, Covid, what G-7 said to China → https://is.gd/2PmXOp | 17:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: G7’s billion vaccine plan counts some past pledges, limiting impact → https://is.gd/nIHfZL | 17:51 |
| dTal | If it's possible to sustain a sub-infection-threshold virus exposure (with the innate immune system dealing with it promptly), is it possible to build up immunity through multiple sub-threshold exposures? I recall a study that showed that a large proportion of healthcare workers had covid antibodies, without ever having become sick. | 18:02 |
| LjL | dTal, i don't recall such a study, but while it sounds plausible to me in theory, i recall a study saying as few as 10 viral particles may be enough for getting infected. it wasn't a very solid study, just a thing. but still, a little unsettling | 18:04 |
| dTal | Oh, I remember that figure as being 100 virions. But it's all statistical | 18:04 |
| dTal | and no doubt our knowledge has improved over time | 18:04 |
| LjL | dTal, also you'd have to compare the proportion of healthcare workers with antibodies but who never became sick to a similarly-aged etc cohort, since for all we know (although it's never being *very* clear), a lot of people may be asymptomatic anyway | 18:07 |
| dTal | We know that initial viral load has a large influence on the severity of progression, and we know asymptomatic progression is possible, so it's pretty plausible that a low dose might produce antibodies without symptoms. What's not clear is the reliability of that | 18:08 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +1390 cases (now 4.2 million), +26 deaths (now 127002) since 22 hours ago | 18:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Saudi shopping malls open only to vaccinated people from August -State TV → https://is.gd/Qfc26P | 19:05 |
| de-facto | .title https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/05/24/science.abi5273 | 19:29 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From science.sciencemag.org: Estimating infectiousness throughout SARS-CoV-2 infection course | Science | 19:29 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Myanmar: +373 cases (now 145603), +3 deaths (now 3244) since a day ago | 19:31 |
| ottavio | I hadn't had side effects from my 2nd jab for the 1st 28 hours; now I feel a bit hot but my temperature is only 36.3C. I also feel my heath beating a bit faster. | 19:36 |
| nudeloiterer | nice that offloop still works. its been handy | 19:41 |
| LjL | yeah | 19:43 |
| nudeloiterer | so you have had that ivermectin crazyness here too? it seems its everywhere now | 19:44 |
| LjL | not particularly | 19:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Covid: Final decision on 21 June easing not taken yet, Boris Johnson says → https://is.gd/sQb17n | 19:48 |
| nudeloiterer | last summer the second wave started around mid july in most of western europe. use the logarithmic scale to see, because the numbers were still low. i wonder if it will be the same this summer too | 19:49 |
| nudeloiterer | https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/06/07/ivermectin-as-a-covid-19-therapy | 19:49 |
| ottavio | By September most people in Europe will have been vaccinated twice. | 19:51 |
| nudeloiterer | it helps, but increased infectivity of the new variants | 19:52 |
| nudeloiterer | was it ferguson, who estimated (the imaginary) R_0 for the indian variant to be 5-8 | 19:53 |
| nudeloiterer | my rough estimate, based on how much more infetive it was, would be around 4 for kent, and 6 or perhaps a bit more for the indian | 19:54 |
| nudeloiterer | sure many countries have quite a bit of immunity from infections too, esp among groups who spread it most. but not all have that "luxury" | 19:55 |
| nudeloiterer | http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates | 19:56 |
| nudeloiterer | imo those IHME estimations seem too low for many european countries. but maybe they are more right than me, they should have the resources | 19:56 |
| nudeloiterer | or transmissible* but anyways... could be for cell infectivity or then other ways to produce more virions in the air | 19:58 |
| nudeloiterer | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/joim.13326 | 20:04 |
| nudeloiterer | * Breathing, speaking, coughing or sneezing: What drives transmission of SARS-CoV-2? | 20:04 |
| nudeloiterer | "When the water evaporates from such speech-generated, potentially virus-rich droplets, they float in the air for minutes, like smoke, thus putting others at risk" | 20:06 |
| nudeloiterer | so in the summer when more moisture inside too, they would dry up slower, could explain | 20:06 |
| nudeloiterer | we should all learn sign language | 20:08 |
| de-facto | Reproduction = ContactRate * Transmissibility * DurationOfInfectiousness <-- change of any of those cofactors in majorities does change Incidence N(t) = N(t0) * R^((t-t0)/t_generation) | 20:11 |
| de-facto | E.g. vaccination decrease the probability of becoming a carrier by reducing transmissibility both in lowering infection risk for a given contamination dose but also by reducing viral shedding load of breakthrough cases and reducing their duration of shedding aswell | 20:14 |
| de-facto | of course also environment where people spend their time plays a big role, time spend outdoors where aerosol transmission risk is lowered by orders of magnitude can not be spend indoors where such a transmission path probably is one of the main contributors | 20:15 |
| de-facto | but also the properties of the pathogen itself of course play a role, if a mutant got evasive capabilities or fitness advantages, thereby reducing the protective mechanisms by vaccinations | 20:17 |
| de-facto | yet the biggest role that can be adjusted the fastest is the behavior of people, with what rate of contacts they give a potential carrier the chance for transmission of the pathogen, how well they reduce transmission probability (also by choosing environment) and by distancing and wearing masks in risk situations and of course if testing is done so unaware carriers can be removed from infection dynamics | 20:20 |
| nudeloiterer | i was wondering how croatia got their cases down dec-jan, despite their added restrictions werent that huge | 20:22 |
| de-facto | for all of that of course the pathogen has to be present in order to reproduce, so that should be the real metric, when incidence goes down its progress towards the desired scenario, but if incidence goes up taking back restrictions is an active decision to fill hospitals even faster | 20:22 |
| nudeloiterer | and their cumulative cases werent that high, so that herd immunity should have had much effect yet | 20:23 |
| nudeloiterer | and then the same in florida | 20:23 |
| nudeloiterer | there wasnt much available information on croatia in english media, so it was hard to find out what was going on | 20:23 |
| nudeloiterer | yeah the cases in croatia went up again later, prob due to the british variant. but anyways it was a strange herd-immunity-like effect there | 20:24 |
| nudeloiterer | LjL have any idea how it was in croatia, a lot more cases really than identified and herd immunity affecting? | 20:25 |
| LjL | nudeloiterer, no, i haven't really had Croatia on my radar. also i don't think they participate in euromomo, and in general i think the best way to see if there are many more cases and deaths than officially stated is to look at excess mortality. so if you know croatian, i'd recommend seeking an excess mortality site for croatia | 20:26 |
| nudeloiterer | yeah i havent looked at that. my guess was, those age groups and possible ethnic groups etc that spreaded it most, were reaching herd immunity. and the same in florida | 20:27 |
| nudeloiterer | so you dont need to reach the immunity threshold for the whole population, just those that spread it the most, and the cases go down | 20:28 |
| nudeloiterer | typical infection models dont show that, and representative multi-group models are hard to make | 20:29 |
| de-facto | second peak in croatia is B.1.1.7 https://covariants.org/per-country | 20:29 |
| nudeloiterer | in florida another smaller peak was in april, prob due to removed restrictions. the british variant became dominant there earlier, possibly the first of us states | 20:33 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Bangladesh: +2436 cases (now 826922), +47 deaths (now 13118) since a day ago | 20:33 |
| de-facto | hmm testing rate in december also went down in croatia https://covid19-country-overviews.ecdc.europa.eu/#9_Croatia | 20:33 |
| de-facto | not sure about their non-pharmaceutical interventions at that time | 20:34 |
| nudeloiterer | how is indian variant situation in different european countries? which ones are doing random sequencing or another type of testing recognizing indian variant? and also telling about the results | 20:34 |
| de-facto | since also positivity rate went down in december there i guess they had a lockdown | 20:35 |
| LjL | nudeloiterer, the UK is doing the most rando msequencing and there is a Sanger site with a better sampling of it that i'm way overdue for adding to the list, so sec | 20:35 |
| nudeloiterer | not that hard measures, imo will not explain | 20:35 |
| de-facto | afaik the B.1.617.2 is on the rise in every single country where it was detected so far | 20:35 |
| de-facto | situation in Germany (rki does random sampling of roughly 10% of cases) | 20:36 |
| nudeloiterer | uk uses pcr assays too that recognize the indian variant | 20:36 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/Wbw1OKK https://i.imgur.com/L3a6Wq5.png src: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/DESH/Bericht_VOC_2021-06-09.pdf?__blob=publicationFile | 20:36 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID Germany: SARS-CoV-2-VoC Evolution - Album on Imgur | 20:36 |
| nudeloiterer | danes sequence a lot. havent checked their variant situation lately, what was the link again... | 20:37 |
| de-facto | i think Denmark also got a very good scientific approach | 20:38 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.covid19genomics.dk/statistics | 20:38 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.covid19genomics.dk: Danish Covid-19 Genome Consortium | 20:38 |
| de-facto | and of course the Brits with their Sanger institute | 20:38 |
| de-facto | .title https://covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw?show=B.1.617.2%2CB.1.1.7&lineage=B.1.617.2&colorBy=p | 20:38 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From covid19.sanger.ac.uk: COVID-19 Genomic Surveillance â Wellcome Sanger Institute | 20:38 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Recent Commits to links:master: Add Sanger's variants page for England ( https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/8aba6fc4023cc23f6b4396a2199974fe64ffe62a ) | 20:43 | |
| de-facto | hmm the B.1.616.2 voc also seems to take over Russia | 20:46 |
| nudeloiterer | wiki has numbers for some countries https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant | 20:48 |
| de-facto | also ECDC got them all on their radar with https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/variants-concern | 20:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Add Sanger's variants page for England → https://is.gd/pNgOpX | 20:50 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/situation-updates/variants-dashboard click on -> https://gis.ecdc.europa.eu/portal/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/25b6e879c076412aaa9ae7adb78d3241 | 20:52 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.ecdc.europa.eu: SARS-CoV-2 variants dashboard | 20:52 |
| de-facto | hmm Portugal again does look bad, lots of B.1.617.2 | 20:53 |
| nudeloiterer | https://gis.ecdc.europa.eu/portal/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/25b6e879c076412aaa9ae7adb78d3241 | 20:53 |
| nudeloiterer | yeah. british been there i guess | 20:54 |
| de-facto | yet only slight increase in cases for https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/portugal | 20:54 |
| nudeloiterer | but going up again in pt | 20:54 |
| de-facto | yeah i think its the other way, lots of Portuguese workers in UK | 20:55 |
| de-facto | so they probably bring home the mutant when they return from UK | 20:56 |
| nudeloiterer | and florida seems to be going up | 20:56 |
| nudeloiterer | Delta variant accounts for 6 percent of new U.S. coronavirus | 20:57 |
| nudeloiterer | headline, paywall. 5 days ago | 20:57 |
| nudeloiterer | but isnt accurate, not that much sequencing there | 20:58 |
| nudeloiterer | https://www.cbsnews.com/news/scott-gottlieb-covid-19-delta-variant-face-the-nation/ | 20:59 |
| nudeloiterer | * Gottlieb says Delta virus variant likely to become dominant U.S. strain | 20:59 |
| nudeloiterer | Eurofins Technologies (Paris:ERF) announces the launch of its GSD NovaType III SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR assay, developed for the rapid detection of SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern including B.1.617 (“India”), B.1.427/B.1.429 (“California/USA”), B.1.351 (“South Africa”) or P.1 (“Brazil”). | 21:01 |
| nudeloiterer | damn this web client doesnt remove line breaks | 21:01 |
| nudeloiterer | The test can detect related mutations E484Q, E484K and L452R in a single reaction and simultaneously distinguish from the S gene E484 wildtype variant | 21:02 |
| de-facto | thats interesting, how do they do both Q and K ad E484? two distinct primers for same position? | 21:06 |
| nixonix | those sequencing results come often with 1-4 week delay | 21:06 |
| de-facto | whoa nixonix welcome :) | 21:06 |
| nixonix | here the share of s-gene positive has gon up a lot lately | 21:06 |
| de-facto | how nice to see you :)) | 21:06 |
| nixonix | so you could guess they are 617.2, what else | 21:06 |
| nixonix | yeah i was trying to see if you guys recognize me. but it seems you forgot... | 21:07 |
| de-facto | how could i forget, i was very much enjoying our discussions, so glad you came back | 21:07 |
| nixonix | i had a few months break following the virus stuff, when i thought nothing much would happen for awhile | 21:08 |
| nixonix | saw the mainstream articles, but didnt read anything else | 21:08 |
| nixonix | i told you the vaccines will come and they will work | 21:09 |
| de-facto | yes we are quite lucky the vaccines turned out so well | 21:09 |
| nixonix | pfizer rules. moderna works too, but havent seen them much in europe, so | 21:10 |
| de-facto | yet its kinda hard to get them, i just got my first shot of Moderna on 1st of June | 21:10 |
| LjL | nixonix, welcome back! | 21:10 |
| nixonix | ty | 21:10 |
| nixonix | they should ask bnt and pfizer guys to our "castle celebration" and give them medals | 21:11 |
| de-facto | what kind of vaccines are available there in .fi? seems you guys are doing exceptionally well in terms of case numbers etc | 21:12 |
| nixonix | got my first one too, pfizer. but we have long delays for the second shot here | 21:12 |
| de-facto | nice congratz | 21:12 |
| nixonix | the same as in all the western europe, exp JnJ | 21:12 |
| de-facto | here we are auto-sceduled 6 weeks later for boosters | 21:12 |
| nixonix | AZ is currently for 65-70yo i think. but EMA just recommened pausing them so i guess we will follow | 21:13 |
| de-facto | yes same here i think | 21:13 |
| LjL | they finally banned them here for people under 60, while before it was just a "recommendation" | 21:14 |
| LjL | but a couple of days ago a 18 year old girl died because of AstraZeneca and because she had a congenital thrombocytopenia condition | 21:15 |
| nixonix | i was thinking they should have given AZ (or JnJ preferably) for those planning to travel. maybe two shots even, with 3 weeks between (its 11-12 weeks here since feb or so) | 21:15 |
| LjL | if you have "open days" where young people can just go and get their jab, do you expect them to come with full medical documentation? | 21:15 |
| LjL | it isn't reasonable to expect that, and so she likely didn't mention that, and so she died | 21:15 |
| nixonix | those countries with 12-16 weeks interval are already shortening it because of the indian variant and lack of protection with 1 dose | 21:15 |
| nixonix | they should do the same here, at least for 60+ yo or so | 21:15 |
| LjL | we are not shortening the AZ interval here :\ | 21:16 |
| nixonix | it supposedly works better with longer intervals | 21:17 |
| nixonix | but those travellers are at higher risk. different situation still in most of europe, and they will prob go to bars and stuf | 21:17 |
| LjL | everything is pretty "reopened" now | 21:18 |
| nixonix | do brits have enough data to say about protection of 1 dose (mrna vaxes) for severe symptoms? | 21:20 |
| nixonix | with 617.2 that is | 21:20 |
| nixonix | "how do they do both Q and K ad E484" - i dont know, hmm | 21:23 |
| nixonix | tinhat knew more about those assays, but he doesnt seem to be around | 21:26 |
| nixonix | maybe they will check for another deletion that is unique for 484Q. but i think it wasnt in the trimer. maybe it doesnt matter | 21:30 |
| nixonix | i mean unique for 617.2 (or possibly other 617 lines too) | 21:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Virtually all hospitalized Covid patients have one thing in common: They're unvaccinated → https://is.gd/5QBpeR | 21:32 |
| nixonix | only in 617.2 Δ157-158 | 21:32 |
| nixonix | and it was in the spike | 21:33 |
| nixonix | so it could be it | 21:33 |
| nixonix | the other ones .1 and .3 has Q - .2 has K | 21:34 |
| nixonix | *have and has | 21:34 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +56 deaths (now 110460) since 22 hours ago — Togo: +23 cases (now 13620) since a day ago — Canada: +8 deaths (now 25903) since 21 hours ago | 21:35 |
| nixonix | no, i think 617.2 has ordinary 484E - but anyways, checking those mentioned should distinguish indian variants, along with some other sites | 21:37 |
| nixonix | tinwhiskers was it his nick? not tinhat | 21:48 |
| LjL | nixonix, yes, he's had a spat with me and decided to leave the channel | 21:56 |
| de-facto | https://covariants.org/variants/21A.S.478K <-- this is B.1.617.2 aka δ-SARS-CoV-2-VoC | 22:07 |
| de-facto | hence i guess Emma Hodcroft named it like that because S.478K is unique for that one | 22:07 |
| de-facto | https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=B.1.617.2 | 22:10 |
| de-facto | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Mutations | 22:10 |
| de-facto | so they might use E484Q to distiguish B.1.617.2 from B.1.617.1 and B.1.617.3 | 22:12 |
| de-facto | https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/threat-assessment-emergence-sars-cov-2-b1617-variants | 22:12 |
| de-facto | https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/Emergence-of-SARS-CoV-2-B.1.617-variants-in-India-and-situation-in-the-EUEEA_0.pdf | 22:12 |
| Allievi | EUEAA, not to be confused with EAEU. | 22:20 |
| Brainstorm | Allievi: At 2021-06-12 13:04:21 UTC, de-facto told you: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X21007362 | 22:20 |
| LjL | For anyone who cares: ##covid-19 on freenode is officially gone since a few minutes ago, so if someone joins here and starts disputing that, well that'll be why | 22:21 |
| xx | LjL: ##coronavirus too? | 22:24 |
| LjL | Yes | 22:25 |
| xx | if only we could make the actual coronavirus gone like that as well... | 22:25 |
| LjL | Eh | 22:25 |
| xx | um, I don't mean that as in that it's good that ##covid-19 is gone on FN, but as a wish that we could remove viruses that easily | 22:26 |
| Allievi | doesn't making a channel gone require for everyone to leave? | 22:26 |
| Allievi | 22:26:46 -!- Topic for #movingtoo: You're here because a channel you've joined has moved to a new network, because this network has been taken over by people who cannot and should not manage an IRC network. Join us at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libera_Chat | 22:27 |
| Allievi | ha | 22:27 |
| Allievi | good work | 22:27 |
| LjL | One tries | 22:28 |
| LjL | It will likely result in a k-line which will impair my ability to have my mind blown by the escalating absurdities being said and done in #freenode | 22:29 |
| LjL | But it was time | 22:29 |
| LjL | They banned someone for something purportedly racist that wasn't even racist (as if they cared about racism except for the law), then later someone called the former Wikipedia group contact (who was also k-lined) a pedophile, and that was awarded with being voiced (and I guess becoming staff later), instead of a ban or anything | 22:31 |
| nixonix | i know nothing about that recent freenode drama, just heard that some channels left for different networks, and then when i went to check freenode news channel, that it suddenly moved to libera | 22:33 |
| nixonix | wich is a network i had never heard about | 22:34 |
| nixonix | +h | 22:34 |
| LjL | nixonix: short story, in 2017 freenode for covertly sold to Andrew Lee, an "entrepreneur" who previously bought the IRC network snoonet in a similar covert way. Even staff didn't know until recently. When they realized, they all resigned and created Libera. Andrew Lee has, since then, taken over any channel that mentioned Libera, hired new staff that are basically semi-literate thugs, and is trying to turn it into some kind of alt-right network | 22:36 |
| nixonix | is there a PIA connection? and chinese ownership? both were rumoured some time ago | 22:39 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Il Presidente Draghi al Vertice Nato di Bruxelles ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/il-presidente-draghi-al-vertice-nato-di-bruxelles/17135 ) | 22:45 | |
| dTal | kinda feel like I should join #freenode and start saying right wing shit so I can be an op | 22:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from Politico: 5 takeaways from Britain’s G7 summit: Biden gave them a boost but did the leaders deliver on the big issues like climate, coronavirus and China? → https://is.gd/jmUEcQ | 22:58 |
| pwr22 | I just realised, that as of today I am "fully vaccinated" | 23:14 |
| pwr22 | I.e. 3 weeks since my second jab | 23:14 |
| Allievi | congrats | 23:15 |
| Allievi | I thought the measurement date was 2 weeks after second jab? | 23:15 |
| nudeloiterer25 | the peak antibody levels i saw, from pfizer i think, were around 8 days after the second shot | 23:19 |
| LjL-Matrix | FYI: IRC is currently not relaying to Matrix (again) after a massive disconnection | 23:19 |
| de-facto | yeah and Moderna got their endpoint 2 weeks after booster, not sure about AZ | 23:20 |
| LjL | Allievi, i think it's pretty arbitrary depending on the country, it's not like there is a single meaningful point, if anything there is arguably one after the first (mRNA) jab | 23:20 |
| LjL | (which is not to say you're fully vaccinated after that, just that there is a clearer cutoff) | 23:21 |
| de-facto | nudeloiterer, you probably mean Fig 1 in https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.09.20245175v1.full | 23:23 |
| de-facto | BNT162b2 had the booster 21 days after primer hence their endpoint 28 days after primer exactly at their peak neutralization titer | 23:24 |
| de-facto | nixonix, i mean ^^ | 23:24 |
| de-facto | oh my, what is going on with those netsplits there | 23:25 |
| nixonix | it was prob that one, the peak seems to be at day 29 | 23:26 |
| nixonix | they have cd8 data too. i wonder if moderna has released their | 23:26 |
| LjL | de-facto, the thing that worries me is that before i saw everyone else also disconnecting, i was disconnected from Libera *and* OFTC (but not freenode) | 23:29 |
| nixonix | do you guys know how do they adjust th1 and th2 cytokine responses with those mrna vaccines? | 23:30 |
| nixonix | is it with nanoparticles or utr regions of mrna somehow (and if it is, then how) | 23:30 |
| nixonix | or do they have some added stuff, as an adjuvant wich they shouldnt have... | 23:32 |
| nixonix | +h | 23:32 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2022483 <-- Fig 2 shows some peak levels for Moderna | 23:33 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.nejm.org: An mRNA Vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 — Preliminary Report | NEJM | 23:33 |
| de-facto | no they dont use adjuvants for mRNA or vector based vaccines agaik | 23:34 |
| de-facto | only for the protein ones or inactivated pathogen vaccines | 23:34 |
| de-facto | i dont even know if they could adjust those th1/th2 ratios or if they just have seen their vaccines produce a favorable profile | 23:35 |
| LjL | nixonix, i don't know, but are you aware their full mRNA sequences have been "leaked"? | 23:36 |
| LjL | not really leaked, reverse engineered | 23:36 |
| de-facto | https://berthub.eu/articles/posts/reverse-engineering-source-code-of-the-biontech-pfizer-vaccine/ | 23:36 |
| nixonix | yeah i have seen that article | 23:37 |
| de-facto | https://github.com/NAalytics/Assemblies-of-putative-SARS-CoV2-spike-encoding-mRNA-sequences-for-vaccines-BNT-162b2-and-mRNA-1273 | 23:37 |
| de-facto | CureVac and BioNTech were leaked and Moderna was reverse engineered (see above github) | 23:38 |
| de-facto | https://berthub.eu/articles/posts/curevac-vaccine-and-wonders-of-biology/ | 23:38 |
| nixonix | ah curevac doesnt have those proline substitutions | 23:41 |
| de-facto | it does afaik | 23:41 |
| nixonix | as az hasnt either. how about JnJ? | 23:41 |
| de-facto | all the mRNA use 2P prefusion stabilizations | 23:41 |
| de-facto | Curevac does not use nucleoside modified mRNA | 23:42 |
| nixonix | jnj should be a bit more efficient than az with one dose. maybe its the reason, or partial | 23:42 |
| nixonix | ok it has then (curevac) | 23:42 |
| de-facto | but BioNTech and modeRNA do use those nucleoside modified mRNA (to avoid alerting cellular immunity) | 23:42 |
| de-facto | yeah AZ does not have those prefusion stabilized s-protein sequences | 23:43 |
| de-facto | afaik Janssen does though | 23:43 |
| LjL | i have the impression J&J is probably about as good as AZ with one dose, or if you prefer that AZ efficacy doesn't change that much after the second dose... but it's my impression since actual data from AZ are all over the place between 60% and 90% depending on the trial and who you ask | 23:43 |
| de-facto | unfortunately CureVac got problems collecting enough breakthrough cases in their current approval trial, just becasue incidence is so low in the target areas, so it probably will take until August or such for them to accumulate enough statistics | 23:44 |
| de-facto | i really hope for them they will be able to finish that, they have an extremely good technology | 23:44 |
| nixonix | so it was those pseudouridines they didnt use with curvac? | 23:46 |
| de-facto | yep | 23:47 |
| pwr22 | LjLLjL: I seem to be seeing IRC messages | 23:49 |
| nixonix | was there any signal in early az trial data that hinted about thrombosis? | 23:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Biden demands international investigation into Chinese lab leak theory at G-7 meeting - Biden has called for access to Wuhan labs to determine whether Covid-19 was result of ‘experiment gone awry’ → https://is.gd/RgjwR3 | 23:51 |
| nixonix | if there was, maybe thats why they then "accidentally" gave half the dose, telling it was better after all... | 23:51 |
| nixonix | sound conspiracy, but i had that idea couple of days ago | 23:51 |
| nixonix | +s | 23:52 |
| nixonix | moderna was planning halving the second dose. in the winter at some point. to increase the doses they could supply | 23:53 |
| pwr22 | nixonix: given they have a half dose to a clinically insignificant amount of people, probably not. I don't think we have any reasonable evidence to back that theory? | 23:54 |
| pwr22 | *gave | 23:54 |
| nixonix | they use 100μg mrna i think. and was it 30 for pfizer | 23:54 |
| nixonix | yeah i guess | 23:55 |
| de-facto | this is the curevac sequence, you can blast it yourself to see the S-2P prefusion stabilizing mutations https://berthub.eu/articles/11868.doc | 23:55 |
| de-facto | they use 12µg mRNA | 23:56 |
| de-facto | or enter the sequence at https://mendel3.bii.a-star.edu.sg/METHODS/corona/gamma/ | 23:59 |
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