| LjL | nixonix, eh but the european green pass is standardized, i guess israel's ones may be different | 00:04 |
|---|---|---|
| LjL | nixonix, a lot of the EU stuff is on github, it was posted here a while ago, although i didn't really look at it, i assume countries may implement the practical details quite differently | 00:05 |
| nixonix | yeah, just remembered they had those printed passes also there in use | 00:07 |
| nixonix | i havent paid attention to the eu certificate yet | 00:07 |
| LjL | nixonix, https://github.com/eu-digital-green-certificates | 00:08 |
| nixonix | in usa different states have different certificates, i think eg cali and ny already have them | 00:08 |
| LjL | nixonix, well unlike the EU, in the EU whenever you can have something bureaucratic the EU will be happy to have it standardized :P | 00:09 |
| nixonix | .title https://abcnews.go.com/US/delta-variant-infecting-mounting-number-people-rural-kansas/story?id=78375257&cid=clicksource_4380645_1_heads_hero_live_headlines_hed | 00:10 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From abcnews.go.com: Delta variant infecting mounting number of people in rural Kansas and Missouri - ABC News | 00:10 |
| nixonix | missouri and kansas cases rising, iowa and nebraska on plateau (those are the states with most indian variant - or that they know of) | 00:15 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/Oti-Region-Man-s-vanished-penis-returns-yet-to-start-functioning-1288714 | 00:26 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.ghanaweb.com: Man's vanished penis returns, yet to start functioning | 00:26 |
| nixonix | if it was for covid, not offtopic | 00:26 |
| nixonix | nyt: "Chinese state media organizations have been waging a misinformation campaign that questions the safety of American-made vaccines, and Beijing has said that foreigners who receive Chinese shots will have an easier time getting into the country | 00:33 |
| nixonix | all these anti-mrna campaigns (it used to be anti-oxford when it still looked promising). could be russian or chinese origin, or both | 00:35 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/19/world/singapore-sinovac.html | 00:35 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.nytimes.com: Singapore Allows Sinovac Shots but Casts Doubt on Effectiveness - The New York Times | 00:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Bolsonaro's rule is 'worse threat than coronavirus,' say Brazilians as nation passes 500,000 deaths → https://is.gd/TlyjO1 | 00:49 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +60 deaths (now 110788) since 22 hours ago | 01:06 |
| de-facto | LjL, i am not exactly sure what you meant there was something like that i remember vaguely | 01:26 |
| de-facto | it was a bit crazy overall indeed, but the generic argument that selection pressure would give the evasive more aggressive variants less of a disadvantage by vaccinations makes some kind of sense imho | 01:27 |
| de-facto | so having both, partial immunity and high incidence automatically leads to breeding of evasive mutants, how could it not be the case? | 01:28 |
| de-facto | For that reason i always said that we need to globally synchronize the vaccination campaign and bring incidence down by NPIs so that the "trials" on immunity by vaccination lead to as less breakthrough as possible, just to minimize those selected evasion mutants | 01:30 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Rwanda: +469 cases (now 30517), +1 deaths (now 379) since 23 hours ago — Israel: +61 cases (now 839830) since a day ago — Canada: +27 deaths (now 26042) since 23 hours ago | 01:31 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +10171 cases (now 4.6 million), +12 deaths (now 128095) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +623 cases (now 1.7 million), +3 deaths (now 17860) since 23 hours ago | 02:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Gunmen on Tuesday targeted an anti-polio drive in eastern Afghanistan, killing at least five members of two vaccination teams in separate attacks, officials said. → https://is.gd/GmJyAb | 03:02 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Lesotho: +111 cases (now 11081), +3 deaths (now 329) since 23 hours ago | 03:10 |
| de-facto | yikes UK got ~8.8k cases per day on average | 03:22 |
| de-facto | https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ | 03:22 |
| LjL | prepare for potential new entries into the channel since its existence was mentioned just now | 03:35 |
| LjL | de-facto, today it passed 10k :( | 03:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: ‘Cause for worry’: Expert weighs in on immune escape potential of Delta plus Covid variant | Latest News India → https://is.gd/9UyWMw | 03:43 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/ekBS2Sm https://i.imgur.com/9N9ma4g.png src: https://covid-surveillance-data.cog.sanger.ac.uk/download/lineages_by_ltla_and_week.tsv | 03:49 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID UK: Evolution of B.1.1.7 and B.1.617.2 - Album on Imgur | 03:49 |
| de-facto | shall we say UK got a serious problem at its hands there? | 03:49 |
| de-facto | thats the lastest SANGER data, so it will be cut off at the end | 03:50 |
| LjL | de-facto, i would say that the UK has a semi-serious problems, because the variant is widespread but they're ahead with vaccines, but *we* have a very serious problem, because we're behind with vaccines and the variant will overtake all the others before we notice | 03:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Double-Lung Transplants Rise After Covid ‘Honeycombs’ Organs → https://is.gd/1WXVDR | 03:53 |
| de-facto | ahm thats why the problem is serious, despite vaccinations they got such a exponential peak there | 03:53 |
| LjL | de-facto, the deaths aren't bulging though | 03:54 |
| LjL | i know they can still start | 03:55 |
| LjL | but the case surge is also not as fast as the last one | 03:55 |
| LjL | maybe you can make a graph with them superimposed | 03:55 |
| LjL | overlayed | 03:55 |
| de-facto | im doing a reproduction fit right now | 03:57 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/360Msbi https://i.imgur.com/BjOPiK9.png src: https://covid-surveillance-data.cog.sanger.ac.uk/download/lineages_by_ltla_and_week.tsv | 04:04 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID UK: PANGO Lineage B.1.617.2 since 2021-03-27 - Album on Imgur | 04:04 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID UK: PANGO Lineage B.1.617.2 since 2021-03-27 - Album on Imgur | 04:04 |
| de-facto | LjL, there made a fit for B.1.617.2 with a NonlinearModelFit, the result being Cases[t] = Cases[2021-03-27] R^(t/tserial) = 60 1.35^(t/4) | 04:05 |
| de-facto | meaning R(B.1.617.2) = 1.35 in UK right now, hence doubling each T2 = 4 days Ln(2) / Ln(1.35) = 9.24 days | 04:06 |
| de-facto | LjL, what data source for fatalities? | 04:07 |
| nixonix | https://twitter.com/XSovietNews/status/1406246959497756674 | 04:08 |
| LjL | de-facto, hmm, could you use the json data from https://covidly.com/history ? | 04:09 |
| de-facto | isnt there an official source? | 04:10 |
| LjL | i don't know | 04:10 |
| LjL | i mean, i suppose so | 04:10 |
| LjL | but i just get data from tinwhiskers and covidly | 04:10 |
| de-facto | maybe https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths | 04:11 |
| LjL | de-facto, https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/download | 04:12 |
| LjL | yeah | 04:12 |
| nixonix | The facility has, at least in Soviet times, been a nexus for biological warfare research (see Soviet biological weapons program), though the nature of any ongoing research in this area is uncertain | 04:12 |
| LjL | nixonix, first time i hear of CoviVac or EpiVacCorona. are they all Russian vaccines? | 04:13 |
| LjL | %vax covivac | 04:13 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, no such vaccine found. Try checking https://covidvax.org | 04:13 |
| LjL | %vax epivaccorona | 04:13 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, peptide antigens (EpiVacCorona) is a Protein subunit vaccine developed in Russia by FBRI SRC VB VECTOR + Rospotrebnazdor, which started distribution initially on March 2021 → https://covidvax.org/covid19-vaccine/FBRI-EpiVacCorona | 04:13 |
| LjL | protein subunit, hmm, and Novavax works so well | 04:13 |
| nixonix | yeah epivaccorona comes from infamous vector institute | 04:13 |
| LjL | does covivac have some other name it may be listed under? | 04:14 |
| nixonix | those participating their vaccine trials had their antibodies vs sars2 tested. none was found, or that is the claim anyway | 04:14 |
| nixonix | killed sars2, that covivac https://www.precisionvaccinations.com/vaccines/covivac-russia-covid-19-vaccine | 04:15 |
| LjL | nixonix, i think inactivated virus vaccines have a big epidemiological drawback | 04:16 |
| LjL | with vaccines based on the S-protein only, you can still determine whether someone has been infected | 04:16 |
| LjL | just test antibodies against the N-protein or something else | 04:16 |
| LjL | but with an inactivated virus vaccine, you can't distinguish past infection from vaccination | 04:16 |
| nixonix | good point | 04:16 |
| LjL | and we definitely want to know whether people are getting infected despite vaccination, especially with the variants | 04:17 |
| LjL | sure, you can PCR them, but sometimes you do it late and they're already negative | 04:17 |
| nixonix | topol: 90% delta in moscow https://twitter.com/Natalia17708261/status/1405919175189663748 | 04:23 |
| nixonix | "Croatia is selling homes that are cheaper than the famous Italian €1 homes", hmm | 04:25 |
| de-facto | LjL, hmm its a bit inconvenient format because i would have to sum weeks and match for delay between deaths and infections, yet at first sight i dont see a correlation there yet | 04:29 |
| LjL | nixonix, i am Italian and i didn't know about the "famous" €1 homes until someone wanted to buy one :P | 04:33 |
| LjL | i mean, someone foreign on here | 04:33 |
| de-facto | btw i just bought a covid quicktest for 0.80€ in the supermarket today | 04:35 |
| de-facto | they really did it, a test for less than 1€ | 04:35 |
| Krey[m] | Is there any link to covid vaccine influencing bone strenght ? My subordinate just woke me up while crying about her broken leg and blaming everything around her and I need a counter argument while she lies In agony bcs of the leg~ | 04:35 |
| de-facto | havent looked into it, but i was just so curious that i bought it | 04:35 |
| jacklsw | almost full spectators in Euro, like covid has ended | 04:37 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Mayotte: +1 deaths (now 174) since 17 days ago | 04:37 |
| jacklsw | @.@ | 04:37 |
| Krey[m] | I got 300 of various COVID tests ^-^ got them like 6 months ago | 04:38 |
| LjL | de-facto, is it subsidized by the government? | 04:39 |
| Krey[m] | Lol no | 04:39 |
| de-facto | LjL, i am not quite sure | 04:43 |
| de-facto | before they were like 3.99 € now they are below 1 € in many supermarkets | 04:43 |
| LjL | the tests i've heard of here are between €20 and €30 :\ | 04:43 |
| Krey[m] | The lab test are cheap af no? | 04:44 |
| de-facto | its really good, they next to the cashier in a big pile, so everyone sees them and their low prices | 04:44 |
| de-facto | quicktests | 04:44 |
| Krey[m] | ... at least in czechia its like 5 USD igN | 04:44 |
| LjL | Krey[m], you mean a PCR? | 04:44 |
| LjL | i won't get a PCR unless my doctor thinks i need one | 04:44 |
| Krey[m] | Nah the one where they stab you with a sharp object and sacrifice your blood to the god of science | 04:45 |
| LjL | those are going to be antibody tests | 04:45 |
| LjL | de-facto is talking about rapid antigen tests | 04:45 |
| Krey[m] | Yesh | 04:45 |
| LjL | which are done with a swab | 04:45 |
| Krey[m] | IgN igG and igA | 04:45 |
| Krey[m] | O.o | 04:45 |
| Krey[m] | So igN ? | 04:45 |
| LjL | anyway, antibody tests here are also €35 to €60 :P | 04:45 |
| LjL | Krey[m], first time i hear of IgN tbh, i know about IgM | 04:46 |
| LjL | but anyway no, they just aren't antibody tests | 04:46 |
| LjL | they check from the presence of the *virus* | 04:46 |
| Krey[m] | Assuming the rapid antigen tests measuring immunoglobib response in the nose and stuff x.x | 04:46 |
| LjL | Ig* are all antibodies | 04:46 |
| LjL | no | 04:46 |
| LjL | the test itself basically contains antibodies | 04:46 |
| Krey[m] | O.o | 04:46 |
| LjL | if those antibodies manage to bind to something (i.e. the virus), the test will eventually glow red | 04:46 |
| LjL | maybe de-facto knows details as i assume he's shelled out the €1 to try one :P | 04:47 |
| Krey[m] | I though they just swab it from the nose and check if it reacts with the gallium gold strip inside it | 04:47 |
| de-facto | wait i can send you a photo | 04:48 |
| LjL | i don't think a gallium gold strip is able to detect any specific virus | 04:48 |
| LjL | it will react with antibodies, or other things that bind to the antigen, i.e. the virus | 04:48 |
| Krey[m] | Like this plastic enclosure right | 04:48 |
| Krey[m] | <LjL "i don't think a gallium gold str"> Thats what it has in the label | 04:48 |
| LjL | well i am *sure* a gallium gold trip has no discrimination ability between SARS-COV-2 and a mosquito | 04:48 |
| LjL | so it may well be used to eventually give you a coloring or something | 04:49 |
| LjL | but only as a last step after something else | 04:49 |
| Krey[m] | There are two stripes that appear depending on the test positivity o.O | 04:50 |
| LjL | yes | 04:50 |
| LjL | but | 04:50 |
| LjL | gold is just a metal | 04:50 |
| LjL | it is NOT ABLE to determine whether something is SARS-COV-2 or something else | 04:51 |
| LjL | gold (colloidal gold, i think, not sure about gallium) is used to eventually give you the stripe | 04:51 |
| LjL | but that's because it's tied to antibodies that are specific to SARS-COV-2 | 04:51 |
| Krey[m] | Well could be a scam afaik i got those from china when CZ gov was too friendly with taiwan x.x | 04:51 |
| LjL | this is from the first rapid antigen test i found on the web | 04:51 |
| LjL | The current test card is based on the specific antibody-antigen reaction and immunoanalysis technology. The test card contains colloidal gold labeled SARS-CoV-2 N protein monoclonal antibody which is pre-coated on the combination pad, matched SARS-CoV-2 N protein monoclonal antibody immobilized on the Test area (T) and corresponding antibody in the quality control area (C).During testing, the N protein in the sample combines with the | 04:51 |
| LjL | colloidal gold labeled SARS-CoV-2 N protein monoclonal antibody which is pre-coated on the combination pad. The conjugates migrate upward under capillary effect, and subsequently captured by the N protein monoclonal antibody immobilized in the Test area (T). The higher the contents of N protein in the sample, the more the conjugates captures and the darker the color in the test area is | 04:51 |
| LjL | Krey[m], they're not a scam, you're just misinterpreting what they do | 04:51 |
| Krey[m] | O.o | 04:52 |
| LjL | do you notice that it says "colloidal gold labeled SARS-COV-2 *N-protein monoclonal antibody*"? | 04:52 |
| LjL | there is an antibody. it's *coated* with colloidal gold stuff that will make it shine in the strip | 04:52 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/x7X42pS https://i.imgur.com/td8KsWD.jpeg | 04:52 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID RAPID Antigen test for 0.80⬠- Album on Imgur | 04:52 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID RAPID Antigen test for 0.80⬠- Album on Imgur | 04:52 |
| Krey[m] | This one is even using silver o.O | 04:52 |
| LjL | de-facto, hmm no indication of specificity or sensitivity | 04:53 |
| LjL | Krey[m], well it can use whatever will cause the strip to become visible | 04:53 |
| LjL | but primarily it needs to use antibodies | 04:53 |
| LjL | that need to be specific to the COVID virus | 04:53 |
| Krey[m] | <LjL "do you notice that it says "coll"> Nope cant find that one x.x says 2019-nCoV Ag rapis detection kit | 04:53 |
| LjL | Krey[m], i just pasted it! | 04:53 |
| LjL | i pasted it from https://www.gimaitaly.com/DocumentiGIMA/Manuali/EN/M24585EN.pdf | 04:53 |
| LjL | which is just the first leaflet about an antigen test i found on google | 04:54 |
| LjL | please, read what it says | 04:54 |
| Krey[m] | o.o | 04:54 |
| de-facto | i think they have to fullfill a certain threshold for having market auth | 04:54 |
| LjL | you have a virus. the virus presents an antigen, such as the S-protein or the N-protein. that antigen can be captured by an antibody. so we put these antibodies in the test. we coat them with something *visible*, so that if the antibodies manage to bind to the virus, it will show up visibly | 04:55 |
| de-facto | its just a card in a bag, so cheap but probably works i guess | 04:55 |
| de-facto | N-protein | 04:56 |
| de-facto | nice | 04:56 |
| Krey[m] | I guess that makes sense x.x | 04:56 |
| LjL | de-facto, they're mainly good for providing routine "proof of negativeness" in situations that require them | 04:56 |
| LjL | if at any time you're actually worried you may *have* COVID, i would still just get a PCR | 04:56 |
| de-facto | more than 90% sensitive they write | 04:57 |
| * Krey[m] prefers to poke himself with a needle and sent that to the lab | 04:57 | |
| de-facto | its antigen test not antibody | 04:57 |
| LjL | Krey[m], except that measures a different thing | 04:57 |
| * Krey[m] is annoyed that none wants to tell him how to figure that out at his lab | 04:58 | |
| LjL | gee Krey[m], you say your family has a medical background, am i wrong? | 04:58 |
| LjL | it's not that hard to tell the difference between "testing for being infected by a virus" and "having antibodies to the virus" | 04:58 |
| LjL | if you've just recently gotten the virus, you're likely to test *negative* to antibodies | 04:58 |
| LjL | antibodies take time to form | 04:58 |
| Krey[m] | <LjL "Krey, except that measures a dif"> immuniglobin A, M?, G what else could it measure to be sure x.x | 04:58 |
| LjL | ... | 04:58 |
| LjL | THE | 04:58 |
| LjL | VIRUS | 04:58 |
| LjL | THE | 04:58 |
| LjL | PRESENCE OF THE VIRUS | 04:58 |
| LjL | what else could it measure | 04:59 |
| LjL | the fucking virus | 04:59 |
| Krey[m] | Ah they have tests for presence of virus in blood too o.O | 04:59 |
| LjL | are you being dense on purpose? if it's not clear, i'm losing my temper | 04:59 |
| LjL | maybe they do | 04:59 |
| LjL | but the virus is often NOT in the blood | 04:59 |
| LjL | (when it's in the blood, you usually have a severe case) | 04:59 |
| de-facto | 95.06% sensitive and 99.62% specific | 04:59 |
| LjL | they test it in the nose/mouth for a reason | 04:59 |
| LjL | de-facto, that sounds pretty decent if it's actually true | 04:59 |
| Krey[m] | Nah mostly just very tired bcs woke up early bcs of katty breaking her leg | 04:59 |
| de-facto | sounds pretty good to me | 04:59 |
| LjL | de-facto, but they are all self-certified results, you know | 05:00 |
| Krey[m] | <LjL "but the virus is often NOT in th"> Ah right o.O | 05:00 |
| de-facto | idk its what they write | 05:00 |
| LjL | de-facto, i know, but remember that site that actually tries to validate the tests (for not very many of them)? it does it because the results *they* write are... not always reliable :P | 05:00 |
| LjL | it's a €1 test after all | 05:00 |
| Krey[m] | Also yep its igM not igN i missread that x.x | 05:00 |
| Krey[m] | On my defense that doctor or whatever handwritting is like decrypting an enigma machine | 05:01 |
| LjL | Krey[m], the problem is that *all* of those IgX antibodies take time to form. some arise quicker than others, but they all take some days | 05:01 |
| de-facto | LjL, i have to admit i dont know if its subventionized | 05:01 |
| Krey[m] | Right x.x what is the chemical reaction that exposes presence of covid then | 05:01 |
| LjL | so if you've just gotten symptoms, and you want to know whether you have COVID right now, a PCR tests tells you that, an antibody test doesn't | 05:01 |
| LjL | Krey[m], it's that thing i pasted | 05:02 |
| LjL | it contains antibodies | 05:02 |
| Krey[m] | <LjL "i pasted it from https://www.gim"> This ? | 05:02 |
| LjL | if those antibodies have anything to bind to (the virus), then they end up in the strip, and since they're coated with some metal, you can see that | 05:02 |
| de-facto | binding to SARS-CoV-2 N-Protein | 05:02 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +10132 cases (now 4.6 million), +14 deaths (now 128099) since 23 hours ago — France: +65 deaths (now 110807) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +1194 cases (now 1.4 million) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +573 cases (now 1.7 million), +3 deaths (now 17861) since 23 hours ago | 05:02 |
| LjL | Krey[m], yes, specifically the part that i pasted from that | 05:03 |
| Krey[m] | <LjL "if those antibodies have anythin"> But i wanted to know what is that some metal u.u | 05:03 |
| Krey[m] | Everyone just screams trade secret at me | 05:03 |
| LjL | colloidal gold in the case of this particular test | 05:03 |
| Krey[m] | I see o.O | 05:03 |
| de-facto | the colloidal gold makes the color of the stripe there | 05:04 |
| Krey[m] | That seems like fun to experiment with.. after i figure out what colloidal is | 05:04 |
| de-facto | and also it can bind to antibodies | 05:04 |
| Krey[m] | O.o | 05:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: 'Forces for good will prevail' - Taiwan welcomes massive US vaccine aid → https://is.gd/GO614z | 05:05 |
| de-facto | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvXCISbrK9Q | 05:05 |
| de-facto | Krey[m], ^^ there a virology professor explains it | 05:06 |
| Krey[m] | > A colloid is a mixture in which one substance of microscopically dispersed insoluble particles are suspended throughout another substance. | 05:06 |
| Krey[m] | Whats the other substance then x.x | 05:06 |
| Krey[m] | <de-facto "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v="> Yay thanku | 05:06 |
| de-facto | note the first part is about antibody test and the second about antigen (the virus) test | 05:07 |
| Krey[m] | O.o | 05:08 |
| de-facto | lol what is that? | 05:08 |
| de-facto | note test | 05:08 |
| Krey[m] | What test | 05:09 |
| Krey[m] | He just talks about rapid test at home ? | 05:09 |
| de-facto | spacecraft is sending me notices when i begin a sentence with "note ... " | 05:09 |
| de-facto | yes rapid tests for both a) antibodies b) antigen | 05:10 |
| Krey[m] | Hmm seems exciting I like space | 05:10 |
| * Krey[m] uploaded an image: (205KiB) < https://libera.ems.host/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/zsgwgtGZWYWJujeJsOznmhWE/Screenshot_20210620-051126_Element.png > | 05:11 | |
| Krey[m] | Hmm interesting | 05:11 |
| Krey[m] | Howddya extract human and rabbit antibodies | 05:12 |
| Krey[m] | Just blood put it in that Spinny thing and then collect blood plasma and white cells and then.. ehh.. | 05:13 |
| Krey[m] | X.x | 05:15 |
| Krey[m] | Thats for immunoglobin.. so I guess scraping that from a nose or something? | 05:16 |
| Krey[m] | Aaa they left me without answers u.u | 05:20 |
| Krey[m] | Hmm >.> i guess i should be looking at this when i am less sleep deprivated anyway.. gnnn | 05:21 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for St. Kitts and Nevis: +26 cases (now 330) since a day ago | 05:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Cuba encouraged by early efficacy results of homegrown COVID-19 vaccine → https://is.gd/tV3qQx | 05:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from This Week In Virology: TWiV 771: Borna hundred million years ago: A TWiV trio reveals the 100 million year old history of bornavirus infections hidden as EVEs in vertebrate genomes, and identification of novel bat coronaviruses that provide evolutionary insight into the origins of SARS-CoV-2. → https://is.gd/875DOc | 06:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from EurekAlert!: Researchers explore microbial ecosystem in search of drugs to fight SARS-CoV-2: Researchers from Yonsei University in South Korea have found that certain commensal bacteria that reside in the human intestine produce compounds that inhibit SARS-CoV-2. → https://is.gd/hToCts | 06:28 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +405 cases (now 1.1 million), +7 deaths (now 25132) since 18 hours ago | 06:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from EurekAlert!: During COVID-19 pandemic, increased screen time correlates with mental distress: Increased screen time among young adults during the COVID-19 pandemic correlated with a rise in pandemic-related distress, according to research led by investigators at the Saint James School of Medicine on the Caribbean island nation, Saint Vincent. [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/QaQSNC | 06:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from EurekAlert!: Study evaluates potential causes of increased transmission in SARS-CoV-2 variants: Although two SARS-CoV-2 variants are associated with higher transmission, patients with these variants show no evidence of higher viral loads in their upper respiratory tracts compared to the control group, a Johns Hopkins School of Medicine study found. → https://is.gd/1owAF7 | 07:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Brazil, besieged by Covid, Now faces a severe drought → https://is.gd/Ox9yTE | 07:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Health: Dengue, malaria, and Covid-19: How to avert co-infection → https://is.gd/KR3OWU | 07:29 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Parana, Brazil: +11497 cases (now 1.2 million), +301 deaths (now 29975) since a day ago — Moscow, Russia: +9120 cases (now 1.3 million), +76 deaths (now 21352) since a day ago — Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: +6367 cases (now 931885), +219 deaths (now 54142) since a day ago — Moscow Oblast, Russia: +1456 cases (now 288904), +12 deaths (now 6329) since a day ago | 07:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): China_Flu: ‘Forces for good will prevail’: Joy in Taiwan as US sends 2.5m Covid vaccine doses. The US donation has more than doubled Taiwan’s available vaccine stocks as it battles a rise in coronavirus infections. → https://is.gd/XuFPVC | 08:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Brazil Is Now The 2nd Country With 500,000 Covid Deaths — And Infections Aren’t Slowing Down → https://is.gd/v73RRD | 08:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | June 20, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://is.gd/Gl6d2K | 09:01 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for New Caledonia: +1 cases (now 129) since 17 days ago | 09:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Uganda Olympic team member tests positive for coronavirus → https://is.gd/bNdx1W | 09:42 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Life-style: E-Cards are back, thanks to the pandemic → https://is.gd/xbgeMi | 09:53 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: More evidence suggests COVID-19 was in US by Christmas 2019 → https://is.gd/t62R34 | 10:44 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +1840 cases (now 3.7 million) since 23 hours ago | 11:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronavirusEU: [Belgium] Number of covid patients in hospital falls below 5 → https://is.gd/zD3pM3 | 12:36 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Indonesia: +13737 cases (now 2.0 million), +371 deaths (now 54662) since 23 hours ago | 13:01 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +1797 cases (now 3.7 million) since 22 hours ago | 13:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Released letter shows Taiwanese media falsely reported that the Philippines sought to buy Taiwan's locally produced COVID-19 vaccines → https://is.gd/zY0uZL | 13:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Health: Covid-19 and clots in the arteries: All you need to know → https://is.gd/MYW74C | 14:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: COVID-19: UK's longest-known coronavirus patient dies after choosing to withdraw from treatment → https://is.gd/H307T2 | 14:58 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Oman: +5320 cases (now 248043), +84 deaths (now 2710) since 3 days ago — Nepal: +1421 cases (now 621056), +51 deaths (now 8726) since a day ago | 15:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Coronavirus Brazil: Brazil passes half a million Covid-19 deaths as experts warn of worse ahead → https://is.gd/7Orbws | 15:28 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Bangladesh: +3641 cases (now 851668), +82 deaths (now 13548) since a day ago — Canada: +33 deaths (now 26054) since 22 hours ago | 16:07 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for India: +44563 cases (now 29.9 million), +1575 deaths (now 386293) since 23 hours ago | 16:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Sunday 20 June 2021 Update: submitted by /u/HippolasCage to r/CoronavirusUK → https://is.gd/wH8T0G | 17:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Bolsonaro's rule is 'worse threat than coronavirus,' say Brazilians as nation passes 500,000 deaths → https://is.gd/vloAF0 | 17:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Body found of armed Belgian anti-vaccine fugitive, suicide suspected → https://is.gd/ea017d | 17:52 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +6384 cases (now 4.6 million) since 22 hours ago | 18:11 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Il Presidente Draghi a Berlino ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/il-presidente-draghi-berlino/17219 ) | 18:16 | |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Cuba encouraged by early efficacy results of homegrown COVID-19 vaccine → https://is.gd/kfM1hl | 18:33 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +32 deaths (now 26055) since 23 hours ago | 18:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Brazil passes 500,000 deaths due to COVID-19. People are blaming the government for lack of proper measures. → https://is.gd/BRikN2 | 18:43 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +881 cases (now 4.3 million), +17 deaths (now 127270) since a day ago | 19:32 |
| bgatesvaxjob | dudes, whats the latest understading of neutralizing and antiviral capacity of different types of antibodies? | 20:04 |
| bgatesvaxjob | may 11, japan: "Although such tests are available, we have very little understanding on how different antibodies interact with virus antigens | 20:07 |
| bgatesvaxjob | i just read some twitter comment suggesting abs vs n wouldnt have neutralising activity (which is false, or prob is) | 20:09 |
| bgatesvaxjob | "showed that IgG specific to the RBD of S protein had the highest correlation with virus neutralizing activity and disease severity. In other words, measuring RBD-specific IgG levels could tell us a lot about the immune response of COVID-19 patients, | 20:11 |
| bgatesvaxjob | from another: A study screening 175 PCR confirmed COVID-19 recovered patients with mild symptoms for neutralizing antibodies identified 10 patients (6%) that had not developed detectable neutralizing antibodies [15]. All but one of these patients were younger than 40 years | 20:15 |
| bgatesvaxjob | ive seen estimates that 5-10% wouldnt have (neutralising) abs - but i think its either sensitivity prob, or they didnt look hard enough for different Nabs | 20:16 |
| bgatesvaxjob | i think those views are mostly based on those same studies, where they didnt find them from all. because of above reasons | 20:17 |
| bgatesvaxjob | then it could also be, that some ppl cleared them evern before they developed significang IgG response, eg with innate immunity and or IgA, which they rarely look for (and arent found for long, anyway) | 20:18 |
| bgatesvaxjob | whats a virus infection anyway? is it that at least 100 of your cells would reproduce more virions? how about 99? | 20:19 |
| bgatesvaxjob | they didnt think things like that before sars2 epidemic. for doctors, only those existed who had severe enough symptoms to seek a medical contact. they were "cases" | 20:20 |
| bgatesvaxjob | those who had mild symptoms or asymptomatic, who knows or even cares. yeah epidemiologists made estimates and they had their fancy models. sometimes they send some forecasts to hospitals of the likely severity of the next flu epidemic. but nobody really knew much | 20:21 |
| bgatesvaxjob | i think that everybody with immunity can get reinfection, even pretty soon aftr primary infection or vaccination, if he gets enough virions to right cells. then its just about how efficiently the immune system will get rid of them, if he will even notice anything, or get severe symtoms | 20:25 |
| bgatesvaxjob | .title https://www.ft.com/content/d4abbe5e-8650-4a76-9fea-2d3efa2ed52b | 20:27 |
| Brainstorm | bgatesvaxjob: From www.ft.com: Subscribe to read | Financial Times | 20:27 |
| bgatesvaxjob | i think their estimates are too high outside uk | 20:28 |
| bgatesvaxjob | paywall. this works https://archive.is/1xsL7 | 20:28 |
| bgatesvaxjob | * Delta variant begins to spread, threatening EU’s Covid progress | 20:29 |
| bgatesvaxjob | portugal was much darker here just a few days ago, for 617. are everybody now trying to play it down, excluding italy in that map? | 20:43 |
| bgatesvaxjob | https://gis.ecdc.europa.eu/portal/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/25b6e879c076412aaa9ae7adb78d3241 | 20:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Chinese spymaster Dong Jingwei ‘defects to the West while offering Covid secrets’ → https://is.gd/GSutvC | 20:45 |
| bgatesvaxjob | ^almost like a perfect daily mail headline. but it missed "while showing her baby bumb" | 20:47 |
| de-facto | everyday a new name mr n :) | 20:47 |
| bgatesvaxjob | yeah i like it when no regging required. no need to use one boring nick every day | 20:49 |
| bgatesvaxjob | wait, its not me! | 20:49 |
| bgatesvaxjob | damn, what gave me away? | 20:49 |
| de-facto | your style is unique enough :) | 20:49 |
| de-facto | lol :D | 20:49 |
| de-facto | do you think the next gen of vaccines are going to be sniffed? | 20:53 |
| de-facto | to prevent initial replication on the mucus by inducing IgA | 20:54 |
| bgatesvaxjob | i think we in the west will stay with mrna and s-protein only, mostly. but they could come on top of that, for extra protection, as an update for new variants etc | 20:55 |
| bgatesvaxjob | its just becomes harder and harder to test them in population, when most are vaxed already, and cases will eventually go down | 20:55 |
| de-facto | yes indeed | 20:56 |
| de-facto | i think in sniffing vaccines or antibodies there is quite some potential | 20:57 |
| nixonix | those participating should also not get those vaxes aimed for population, while they are in trial. how do you test them especially for old people, even in countries that are still behind? | 20:57 |
| nixonix | in vaccinations | 20:57 |
| de-facto | for example, there is an outbreak in an elderly home, why not give everyone a good sniff of the latest gen antibodies just as a precaution? | 20:57 |
| nixonix | antibodies, like those from immunized llamas or cows? if they even work as a prophylant, they wont work for long, just a few hours when taken intranasally | 20:59 |
| dendtriticcell[m | https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/06/210611174037.htm | 20:59 |
| nixonix | then synthetic antibodies, they should be injected for efficacy, and are expensive | 20:59 |
| dendtriticcell[m | why not just use your adaptive + innate immune system. it's awesome. | 20:59 |
| de-facto | yeah good point, they probably would have to sniff them more often than just once because they will be transported away from the mucus | 21:00 |
| nixonix | but not without reverse transcriptase, that sars2 doesnt have | 21:00 |
| dendtriticcell[m | 380 trillion viruses in your body at all times, ever wonder what useful purpose they serve? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_virome | 21:01 |
| nixonix | you mean transposomes? | 21:01 |
| nixonix | remains of those ancient viruses | 21:01 |
| nixonix | still poorly understood, but they are not all trash obv | 21:01 |
| nixonix | yeah you can get reverse transcriptase from those too, but that should be extremely rare | 21:02 |
| nixonix | and for that happen just in a few cells, prob nothing happens. and we all have potential seeds for cancer cells to develop anyway. what does it matter if the chance increases by something like 1% for a few days (mrna vaccines) | 21:03 |
| nixonix | so good enough approximation is, mrna vaccines wont alter your cells. but if you have active HIV, herpes-2 or somethign with reverse transcriptase, prob better get treatment before vax, just in case (and for other reasons much more) | 21:04 |
| nixonix | thats why those exceptions where it could potentially do that, arent mentioned pretty much nowhere. no reason to mess vaccine discussion with those rare occurences and complex subjects anyway | 21:06 |
| nixonix | *transposons (or reverse tranposons in this case) | 21:07 |
| nixonix | i mean *retro | 21:08 |
| nixonix | you guys saw this? http://lkml.iu.edu/hypermail/linux/kernel/2106.1/04596.html | 21:14 |
| dendtriticcell[m | ya https://www.linuxfoundation.org/blog/adoption-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-required-approach-for-our-fall-2021-event-line-up/ | 21:18 |
| nixonix | .title https://loyaltylobby.com/2021/06/20/fake-covid-19-pcr-rt-test-laboratory-found-in-sweden/ | 21:21 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From loyaltylobby.com: Fake Covid-19 PCR-RT Test Laboratory Found In Sweden - LoyaltyLobby | 21:21 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/15/world/india-fake-coronavirus-covid-tests.html | 21:22 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.nytimes.com: Fake Coronavirus Tests May Have Helped Fuel India Outbreaks - The New York Times | 21:22 |
| nixonix | pcr tests at borders are estimated to catch around 60-70% of cases. usually the reason, they are taken too early | 21:24 |
| nixonix | then rapid tests, depending on test and how efficiently you will scrape the brain with the stick, catch around 50-90% of those that pcr would find | 21:26 |
| LjL | nixonix, and yet de-facto's cheap €1 test claims to have 95% sensitivity or so iirc :P | 21:27 |
| nixonix | yeah they arent that good, thats for sure. how good, it depends. evaluated by what idependent lab, and how large sample. and taking the sample yourself, or just some commercial business that mostly just wants happy customers, not those that hate the experience of brain scraping | 21:29 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/06/210617103612.htm | 21:29 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.sciencedaily.com: Highly sensitive test for SARS-CoV-2 may enable rapid point-of-care testing for COVID -- ScienceDaily | 21:29 |
| de-facto | yeah i just read what they write in their manual, i dont have a clue if that is correct | 21:30 |
| nixonix | is it the one that lidl sells? | 21:31 |
| de-facto | they said testing against PCR confirmed samples or such | 21:31 |
| de-facto | penny | 21:31 |
| nixonix | in uk you get some rapid tests 12 pack or so every 2 weeks for free | 21:31 |
| de-facto | https://imgur.com/a/x7X42pS https://i.imgur.com/td8KsWD.jpeg | 21:31 |
| nixonix | boson biotech, the one that lidl sells | 21:32 |
| nixonix | boson is chinese too | 21:32 |
| nixonix | all is chinese, they just pack shit here and say its german or dutch or whatever | 21:33 |
| de-facto | https://lepu-medical.de/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Produktinfo-LEPU-SARS-CoV2-NASOCHECKcomfort.pdf | 21:34 |
| de-facto | weird on their website its 2.30€ | 21:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: White House won’t ‘simply accept China saying no’ on probe in Covid origin, says national security adviser → https://is.gd/RPCPT1 | 21:35 |
| de-facto | maybe its subsidized? I just was surprised by the low price, if they can hold that it would be really good | 21:35 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00178-8/fulltext | 21:36 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.thelancet.com: The Lancet | The best science for better lives | 21:36 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Fiji: +166 cases (now 1964) since 10 hours ago | 21:36 |
| nixonix | could be. germany has relied on large number of rapid tests more than pcr tests, which they had done lowish numbers | 21:37 |
| de-facto | "508 clinical specimens based on nucleic acid detection (PCR) test results were received for review, including 243 positive and 265 negative specimens. The SARS-CoV-2 Rapid Antigen Test Kit was compared to the nucleic acid method (PCR) using the clinical samples collected." | 21:37 |
| nixonix | french approved some rapid saliva test in schools | 21:37 |
| de-facto | then they provide a table with results | 21:37 |
| de-facto | PCR positive: rapidtest 231 positive and 12 negative (95.06%) and PCR negative: rapidtest 1 positive and 264 negative (99.62%) | 21:40 |
| de-facto | thats what they write on there, i dont know how those correlate to everyday scenarios | 21:40 |
| de-facto | i also would assume its less accurate than what they claim there | 21:41 |
| nixonix | you have a link to the evaluation of that product? | 21:42 |
| de-facto | nope i dont have any idea about the quality, i just was amazed by the price | 21:43 |
| nixonix | i found some french, i think it was that saliva test they approved, small sample but a french university | 21:43 |
| de-facto | drosten did some evaluation quite a while ago | 21:43 |
| de-facto | not sure which rapid tests were available back then | 21:43 |
| de-facto | %links antigen | 21:44 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.12.20230292v1 (Comparison of seven commercial SARS-CoV-2 rapid Point-of-Care Antigen tests) validates a few tests trying to determine their specificity and sensitivity [... want %more?] | 21:44 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(21)00056-2/fulltext | 21:45 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.thelancet.com: Comparison of seven commercial SARS-CoV-2 rapid point-of-care antigen tests: a single-centre laboratory evaluation study - The Lancet Microbe | 21:45 |
| de-facto | yeah those are different rapid antigen tests, still showing what was possible some time ago | 21:47 |
| nixonix | .title https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2775397 | 21:47 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From jamanetwork.com: Comparison of Saliva and Nasopharyngeal Swab Nucleic Acid Amplification Testing for Detection of SARS-CoV-2: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis | Public Health | JAMA Internal Medicine | JAMA [...] | 21:47 |
| nixonix | i suppose those cheap rapid tests are all lateral flow tests, arent they? | 21:51 |
| nixonix | i suppose those cheap rapid tests are all lateral flow tests, arent they? | 21:51 |
| de-facto | i guess so, paper card with lateral flow on it | 22:00 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for India: +56347 cases (now 29.9 million), +1548 deaths (now 386670) since 21 hours ago | 22:01 |
| nixonix | Forty‐eight studies reported 58 evaluations of antigen tests. Estimates of sensitivity varied considerably between studies. There were differences between symptomatic (72.0%, 95% CI 63.7% to 79.0%; 37 evaluations; 15530 samples, 4410 cases) and asymptomatic participants (58.1%, 95% CI 40.2% to 74.1%; 12 evaluations; 1581 samples, 295 cases) | 22:05 |
| nixonix | Sensitivity varied between brands. Using data from instructions for use (IFU) compliant evaluations in symptomatic participants, summary sensitivities ranged from 34.1% (95% CI 29.7% to 38.8%; Coris Bioconcept) to 88.1% (95% CI 84.2% to 91.1% | 22:06 |
| nixonix | none was 95 | 22:06 |
| nixonix | then the self-testing problems... | 22:07 |
| nixonix | "No studies assessed the accuracy of repeated lateral flow testing or self‐testing. | 22:07 |
| nixonix | cliff notes: dont believe a word thats in the box | 22:08 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD013705.pub2/full | 22:09 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.cochranelibrary.com: Rapid, point‐of‐care antigen and molecular‐based tests for diagnosis of SARS‐CoV‐2 infection - Dinnes, J - 2021 | Cochrane Library | 22:09 |
| nixonix | might have bought some antibody tests to check what they show before 1st shot, then after, then after the 2nd, then couple months later | 22:21 |
| de-facto | that would be interesting indeed | 22:21 |
| nixonix | but werent available in lidl yet. not sure if they were in pharmacies, but the same chinese antigen tests lidl sells cost 50% more in pharmacy. and here lidl's price is double to german price (30€/5 vs 15 in germany) | 22:22 |
| nixonix | maybe ill buy both some day anyway, idk | 22:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: How Taiwan’s struggle for Covid vaccines is inflaming tensions with China → https://is.gd/copkDb | 22:26 |
| de-facto | antibody tests? | 22:27 |
| de-facto | id like to have some with quantitative result, something that tells me a level, but i guess they all have different sensitivity | 22:29 |
| nixonix | yeah and antigen tests too. to try what they say if i get some kind of symptoms | 22:29 |
| de-facto | interesting did not know lidl also exists in .fi | 22:30 |
| de-facto | thats cool :) | 22:30 |
| nixonix | papers just wrote, that sniffles now more common than cough with indian variant. then on forums several people wrote: it has now changed to more like flu | 22:30 |
| de-facto | reinfections, breakthrough or naive contamination?# | 22:31 |
| nixonix | despite the recent estimate is, 100% more likely to take you to hospital than kent variant (which already had 50-60% more common severe symptoms than older variants) | 22:31 |
| nixonix | primary infection symptoms indian vs kent variant, from uk self-reporting system so unreliable data | 22:32 |
| nixonix | this hasnt been on this channel yet? | 22:33 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57467051 | 22:33 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.bbc.com: Headache and runny nose linked to Delta variant - BBC News | 22:33 |
| de-facto | well with seroprevalence now there will be a transition of likelihood from naive contamination to reinfection/breakthrough | 22:33 |
| de-facto | that is without prior knowledge of immuno-competence | 22:33 |
| nixonix | yeah thats true, and those reinfection studies have been either old, oldish or medical care personnel, when those type milder reinfections could be more common with younger age groups than thought, hmm... | 22:35 |
| nixonix | and would be in line with my hypothesis that reinfection could be way more possible than thought, if you just get enough virions to right cells | 22:35 |
| nixonix | which wouldnt usually happen, during several months after primary infection. but could, in the right circumstancies, to even those that have a strong immune response still | 22:40 |
| de-facto | interesting video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHBua3aXQ7c from your article | 22:44 |
| nixonix | cliff notes? im super lazy to watch videos | 22:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Thousands Protest Against 'Genocidal' Bolsonaro as Brazil's COVID Death Toll Passes 500K → https://is.gd/L93lsC | 22:47 |
| dTal | boil it down to a single word? I'm too lazy to read cliff notes | 22:47 |
| de-facto | they are just describing the delta variant, its distributions in age groups, reproduction, symptoms etc | 22:47 |
| de-facto | dTal, vaccination! | 22:48 |
| dTal | can you abbreviate the word? it's a lot of letters | 22:48 |
| de-facto | vax | 22:48 |
| dTal | tx | 22:48 |
| dTal | delta variant a bit of a game changer huh | 22:49 |
| de-facto | well yes and no, yes as in R0~6 (he said) and no as no increase in fatalities (yet?) | 22:50 |
| de-facto | dTal, i wonder, are increased fatalities expected or is that due to it spreading mainly in the young and for not so long yet (as well as not that high numbers yet)? | 22:51 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1513 | 22:53 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.bmj.com: Delta variant: What is happening with transmission, hospital admissions, and restrictions? | The BMJ | 22:53 |
| nixonix | they dont have enough data yet to say for sure, but it looks like it causes more hospitalizations. for deaths, old are mostly vaccinated twice, and increased deaths came with 4-8 weeks delay to increased cased in the fall, in europe | 22:54 |
| de-facto | hmm yeah makes sense, still the problem is Rt(B.1.617.2) ~ 1.35 in UK, that somehow must be stopped because it doubles each 9-10 days | 22:59 |
| de-facto | actually i fear we will have just the same here in Germany last was like 6% or such | 22:59 |
| de-facto | increasing | 22:59 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/6ZVF75t https://i.imgur.com/8DkPA8K.png "COVID Germany: Evolution of PANGO Lineage B.1.617.2" https://imgur.com/a/W9NDdNu https://i.imgur.com/FJfSHWO.png src: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/DESH/Bericht_VOC_2021-06-16.pdf?__blob=publicationFile | 23:14 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID Germany: Evolution of PANGO Lineage B.1.617.2 - Album on Imgur | 23:14 |
| de-facto | Cases(B.1.617.2) = Cases(05.04.2021) R^(t/4) = 0.55 1.16^(t/4) hence R(B.617.2) ~ 1.16 with T2 = 4d Ln(2) / Ln(1.16) = 18.7d | 23:14 |
| nixonix | saw the ft article i linked earlier? | 23:16 |
| de-facto | nope | 23:16 |
| de-facto | currently R~0.8 in Germany, mainly with B.1.1.7 still | 23:18 |
| nixonix | https://www.ft.com/content/d4abbe5e-8650-4a76-9fea-2d3efa2ed52b | 23:18 |
| nixonix | paywall, archive.is | 23:19 |
| de-facto | so the R(B.1.617.2) / R(B.1.1.7) = 1.16 / 0.8 = 1.45 meaning B.1.617.2 currently seems to reproduce 45% than B.1.1.7 | 23:19 |
| de-facto | so i think we also got something like ~50% more reproduction there, numbers still are low, hence contributions from clusters will play a bigger role than in UK where its more wide spread already | 23:20 |
| nixonix | from german data? | 23:20 |
| de-facto | yes RKI, i just analyzed their data | 23:20 |
| de-facto | link for B.1.617.2 above and R-values from https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Projekte_RKI/Nowcasting.html | 23:21 |
| de-facto | since majority of infections still originate from B.1.1.7 i just assumed that this R there is the one from B.1.1.7 | 23:22 |
| nixonix | one thing they are currently wondering, the indian variants share seems to increase different rate in different countries | 23:22 |
| de-facto | it depends on where is spreads I guess | 23:23 |
| nixonix | prob the reason is, their data is lacking and not representative samples. and not considering different areas, age groups etc | 23:23 |
| de-facto | where it was introduced, then some founders effect play a role, but eventually it will spread along the social connections via contacts | 23:23 |
| de-facto | RKI does representative sampling as good as possible | 23:23 |
| de-facto | sequencing 1 out of each 10 detected cases | 23:24 |
| de-facto | on average | 23:24 |
| nixonix | it was the same with kent variant, like the share increased different rate in denmark compared to switzerland | 23:25 |
| de-facto | UK data may be a bit better, also because its much more wide spread there now, but RKI data also is very high quality | 23:25 |
| de-facto | nixonix, yes thats really weird it does not spread in Denmark yet | 23:25 |
| de-facto | afaik | 23:25 |
| nixonix | and they dont mix in all the sequenced samples they get? like when trying to contain clusters, where theres increased likelihood of more rapidly transmitting variant | 23:25 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.covid19genomics.dk/statistics | 23:26 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.covid19genomics.dk: Danish Covid-19 Genome Consortium | 23:26 |
| de-facto | hmm well their latest also is 3% | 23:27 |
| nixonix | the more the difference in transmitting is, the less and shorter time the founder effect should matter | 23:27 |
| de-facto | so unfortunately it also arrived there | 23:27 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Three Countries Ask Israel for COVID Vaccines if Palestinians Nix Deal, Source Says → https://is.gd/z2GARr | 23:27 |
| nixonix | then if its less transmitting, it comes to play. like why we have had 15-20% SA variant for several months, when its prob slower spreading then kent | 23:27 |
| nixonix | those financial times estimates for europe outside uk are prob too high | 23:28 |
| nixonix | and funny how fast it replaced the kent in uk, being now 98-99%. when those last percentages should come slow. that could mean way higher than 50% difference | 23:29 |
| de-facto | yeah ft got some high quality stuff sometimes, but i cant access it | 23:29 |
| nixonix | and possibly in st petersburg and moscow too | 23:29 |
| nixonix | lucky they dont have some large events there at the moment | 23:30 |
| nixonix | because the visitors would spread it everywhere | 23:30 |
| nixonix | like some large sports events or something. but they couldnt possibly be that stupid | 23:30 |
| de-facto | .title https://archive.is/lI2zc | 23:31 |
| nixonix | archives dont work? | 23:31 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From archive.is: Delta variant begins to spread, threatening EU’s Covid progress | Financial Times | 23:31 |
| de-facto | thats your article there | 23:31 |
| de-facto | loads super slow, but loads | 23:31 |
| nixonix | sometimes dns's block them, then just switch dns | 23:32 |
| de-facto | they will be that stupid to fill soccer stadiums etc, unfortunately | 23:34 |
| nixonix | i wonder where the russians got it faster than other europe outside uk. from uk or india | 23:37 |
| de-facto | dont they love to make holidays there in India? | 23:37 |
| de-facto | (wild speculation) | 23:37 |
| nixonix | with uk border controls india probably | 23:37 |
| nixonix | now russian thinking is prob, let it just spread to europe as fast as possible. whats bad for them, is good for us | 23:38 |
| nixonix | .title https://tass.com/society/1304765 | 23:39 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From tass.com: Some countries ready to welcome Russians vaccinated with Russian COVID-19 jab — Deputy PM - Society & Culture - TASS | 23:39 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/06/14/few-across-17-advanced-economies-have-confidence-in-putin/ | 23:42 |
| de-facto | so if our goal would be to stick with control by R(B.1.617.2) = 0.8 = 1.45 R(B.1.1.7) hence we would need containment like if achieving R(B.1.1.7) = 0.8 / 1.45 = 0.8 0.69 = 0.55 hence reduction of transmissions to 69% by 31%, meaning avoiding 1 transmission each 3 transmissions that take place right now | 23:42 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.pewresearch.org: Few across 17 advanced economies have confidence in Putin | Pew Research Center | 23:42 |
| nixonix | the last summer cases started to increase from mid july in most of western europe | 23:43 |
| nixonix | sure the most likely reason was travellers from/to balkan and spain, but early increase anyway. luckily we arent starting to travel as much again this summer... | 23:44 |
| de-facto | it always starts with tolerating traveling, i wonder how long it takes until people understand this | 23:45 |
| de-facto | it is the one constant in this pandemic, travelers bringing the problems and then whole countries suffer the consequences | 23:46 |
| de-facto | this pattern repeats until its considered not tolerable anymore, quite simple actually | 23:46 |
| de-facto | i have nothing against tourism, but tolerating any international passenger travel is just astronomically foolish | 23:48 |
| de-facto | i know it sounds harsh, but reality demonstrated this again and again | 23:48 |
| de-facto | i doubt it will be containable, it simply seems economy would not tolerate banning of all international traveling | 23:49 |
| de-facto | it just will continue like this, because its out choice not to stop it by restricting its mobility | 23:50 |
| de-facto | its a bit like Sisyphos, once a country worked hard with combined effort to bring down incidence they happily open up, people want recreation and relax in holidays, want to be entertained and go for traveling, import the newest updates and evasive mutants and it all starts over again | 23:51 |
| nixonix | the stricter you control it, esp to countries where theres most new VOC, or that you cant get reliable info how much they have it, the more time you get for vaccinations | 23:53 |
| nixonix | and the less you do that, the more stupid you are | 23:54 |
| de-facto | i dont get it why they dont make 14 days absolutely strict quarantine mandatory, two PCR tests during that time should lower mutant import by many orders of magnitude | 23:55 |
| de-facto | but then that only would work with strict border control of a whole block, e.g. all of EU would have to do that at once | 23:56 |
| nixonix | we have the least immunity from previous infections in the whole europe, the higher the vax coverage we would need (excluding iceland, but small country, easier to contain cases, easier to get almost everybody to have the shots) | 23:56 |
| nixonix | basically we are fucked | 23:56 |
| de-facto | well vaccinations will help of course, because they lower reproduction, and thereby make it a lot easier to maintain control | 23:57 |
| de-facto | preventing 1 out of 3 transmissions taking place right now means either that contact does not take place or that there is no transmission during that contact | 23:57 |
| de-facto | that could be achieved by contact reduction, but also by distancing and wearing masks, yet ofc also vaccinations will reduce transmission by 1) preventing infections 2) reducing viral shedding 3) shortening viral shedding | 23:58 |
| nixonix | i calculated the level of immunity israel had vs transmission, late april or early may, combined from infections and shots, the result slightly under 80%. then i calculated what we prob have by the end of june, it was around 50% | 23:59 |
| de-facto | so it will help a lot to progress faster with vaccinations, basically its a race condition, we vs the virus | 23:59 |
| nixonix | against indian variant, so that R would keep under 1, without any restrictions, on average, we would need something like 85% | 23:59 |
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