libera/##covid-19/ Wednesday, 2021-06-23

BrainstormUpdates for Kuwait: +1962 cases (now 342929), +11 deaths (now 1888) since a day ago — Canada: +18 deaths (now 26095) since 23 hours ago00:40
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Mongolians relied on Chinese vaccines. Now they’re battling outbreaks. → https://is.gd/uHhDR600:47
BrainstormUpdates for India: +45090 cases (now 30.0 million), +1241 deaths (now 389376) since 23 hours ago01:05
Krey[m]any new info on ivermectin?01:41
cyberlardThere is always up to date info published on https://ivmmeta.com/01:47
cyberlardI'm happy to see a "Review of the Emerging Evidence Demonstrating the Efficacy of Ivermectin in the Prophylaxis and Treatment of COVID-19" on the nih website. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8088823/01:47
cyberlardI'm not sure if social media sites can be forced to allow people to share links to peer reviewed studies on ivermectin without censorship and banning.01:51
apotheonTry Odysee instead of YouTube, I guess, for video stuff.01:54
apotheon. . . not that it has the same reach.01:54
BrainstormNew from Trevor Bedford: @trvrb: R to @trvrb: We know from @PHE_uk that B.1.617.2 is primarily transmitting through the unvaccinated (or partially vaccinated) population. It's difficult to predict the size of a B.1.617.2 epidemic we'll see, but I would expect at least some correlation with regional vaccine coverage. 12/12 → https://is.gd/EzALyj02:09
BrainstormNew from Derek Lowe: @Dereklowe: 33 new coronavirus cases in all of Massachusetts in today's report - the tenth day in a row of fewer than 100 cases. Test positivity of 0.34% → https://is.gd/RlGHX702:19
Krey[m]<apotheon "Try Odysee instead of YouTube, I"> odysee sucks avoid at all cost02:32
BrainstormUpdates for Rwanda: +861 cases (now 32296), +4 deaths (now 392) since a day ago — Montenegro: +341 cases (now 100433), +1 deaths (now 1606) since a day ago — United Kingdom: +8323 cases (now 4.7 million), +15 deaths (now 128127) since 20 hours ago — France: +23 deaths (now 110866) since 20 hours ago02:32
Krey[m]abusing shajt that mines off of your personal data~02:32
Krey[m]rather use peertube.tv :p02:32
BrainstormUpdates for St. Kitts and Nevis: +27 cases (now 377), +1 deaths (now 3) since 19 hours ago03:34
BrainstormNew from Derek Lowe: @Dereklowe: "A representative from Sinopharm hung up the phone when reached for comment". Not what you want to see in an article about your organization.https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/22/business/economy/china-vaccines-covid-outbreak.htmlhttps://is.gd/JxRwO803:53
BrainstormUpdates for Eswatini: +23 cases (now 18854) since 23 hours ago03:59
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: ‘I’ll inject the vaccine in your butt’: Philippines president threatens to arrest those who refuse vaccination → https://is.gd/tElZuy04:23
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Delta Plus variant may defeat vaccines, antibodies and infection immunity, warns Prof Jameel → https://is.gd/9bOodi04:34
BrainstormUpdates for Panama: +1208 cases (now 395449), +6 deaths (now 6483) since a day ago — Zimbabwe: +519 cases (now 42714), +6 deaths (now 1691) since a day ago — Cyprus: +122 cases (now 73832) since a day ago — Martinique: +65 cases (now 12264) since 20 hours ago04:36
LjLhttps://www.androidpolice.com/2021/06/20/google-may-have-installed-a-covid-contract-tracer-app-without-permission-and-people-are-pissed/04:37
BrainstormUpdates for France: +50 deaths (now 110893) since 23 hours ago — Channel Islands: +22 cases (now 4150) since 2 days ago05:01
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Delta variant ‘greatest threat’ to US’ Covid-19 efforts: Dr Fauci → https://is.gd/KeRF8G05:35
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +8612 cases (now 4.7 million), +20 deaths (now 128133) since 21 hours ago — Netherlands: +345 cases (now 1.7 million), +2 deaths (now 17869) since 21 hours ago05:38
BrainstormNew from EurekAlert!: MicroRNAs may play a role in COVID-19: New research published in the Journal of Cellular and Molecular Medicine indicates that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, produces microRNAs that can have impacts on infected cells. MicroRNAs are genetic molecules that prevent the production of particular proteins by binding to and [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/fi2e2106:26
BrainstormUpdates for Belgium: +395 cases (now 1.1 million), +3 deaths (now 25144) since a day ago — Germany: +51 deaths (now 90863) since 22 hours ago06:40
BrainstormNew from EurekAlert!: Schools should strive to improve students' food literacy: An article published in the Journal of School Health stresses that food literacy--understanding the impact of food choices on our health, environment, and economy--should be a priority for K-12 schools during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond. → https://is.gd/vifR7Z06:47
BrainstormNew from EurekAlert!: Methodology from GWAS accurately flags more deadly SARS-CoV-2 variant: Using genome-wide association studies (GWAS) methodology to analyze whole-genome sequencing data of SARS-CoV-2 mutations and COVID-19 mortality data can identify highly pathogenic variants of the virus that should be flagged for containment, according to [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/UlC6if07:07
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Angela Merkel given Moderna as second COVID-19 jab after having AstraZeneca as first injection → https://is.gd/C6kIN207:17
BrainstormUpdates for Scotland, United Kingdom: +2167 cases (now 257742), +4 deaths (now 7696) since 23 hours ago — Moscow Oblast, Russia: +1871 cases (now 294224), +12 deaths (now 6367) since 23 hours ago — Saint Petersburg, Russia: +1065 cases (now 459466), +82 deaths (now 15503) since 23 hours ago — Arkansas, United States: +485 cases (now 346180), +8 deaths (now 5884) since 23 hours ago07:30
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express (Health): Health: Doctors on whether adults should take the flu vaccine and is it efficacy against Covid-19 → https://is.gd/x3xheO07:38
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Brazil probes Health Ministry deal to buy Covaxin vaccine → https://is.gd/AcYnm507:48
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Delta variant gains steam in undervaccinated US counties → https://is.gd/3Y1WqO08:09
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: With mass vaccination sites winding down, it’s all about the ‘ground game’ in US → https://is.gd/pK357R08:19
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Consiglio europeo, le Comunicazioni del Presidente Draghi in Parlamento ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/consiglio-europeo-le-comunicazioni-del-presidente-draghi-parlamento/17236 )08:21
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | June 23, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://is.gd/TnoOSw09:10
BrainstormUpdates for India: +48398 cases (now 30.0 million), +842 deaths (now 390218) since 8 hours ago09:41
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express (Health): Life-style: Maheshwar weavers use handloom saris to encourage vaccination, watch → https://is.gd/VRzBTK10:11
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: COVID surge in Africa raises fears of a calamity like India’s → https://is.gd/yHrPAj10:22
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express (Health): Health: Donating blood in the pandemic: Find out everything about doing it safely → https://is.gd/wzIUXZ10:42
BrainstormUpdates for Mauritius: +78 cases (now 1779) since 8 days ago11:08
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +456 cases (now 3.7 million) since 23 hours ago11:32
BrainstormNew from EMA: What's new: Medicine: Human medicines European public assessment report (EPAR): Spikevax (previously COVID-19 Vaccine Moderna), COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine (nucleoside modified), COVID-19 virus infection, Date of authorisation: 06/01/2021, Revision: 8, Status: Authorised → https://is.gd/OpE38w11:54
BrainstormNew from ScienceNews: How COVID-19 created a perfect storm for a deadly fungal infection in India: Amid the chaos of the COVID-19 pandemic, numbers of rare but dangerous “black fungus” infections have skyrocketed in the country. → https://is.gd/uJfmuV12:05
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express (Health): Health: Delta Plus: What does ‘variant of concern’ mean? → https://is.gd/1Zdwoo12:26
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Should schoolchildren still have to self-isolate?: More than a quarter of a million children are absent from school in the UK because of coronavirus. → https://is.gd/MFR9CN12:56
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Brussels airport traveller with false Covid test jailed for year → https://is.gd/MWEvW013:17
Nebukadnezaoh, joining worked … but took ~10minutes or so14:03
Nebukadnezahi LjL and LjL  and LjL  😂14:03
BrainstormUpdates for Indonesia: +15308 cases (now 2.0 million) since a day ago14:08
BrainstormNew from Science-Based Medicine: The Delta Variant: The emergence of the delta variant of COVID-19 is a reminder that we have not won this race against the pandemic yet. The post  first appeared on Science-Based Medicine . → https://is.gd/5ISD3t14:20
BrainstormUpdates for Senegal: +118 cases (now 42590) since a day ago — Switzerland: +1 deaths (now 10876) since 22 hours ago14:39
BrainstormUpdates for Nepal: +1511 cases (now 627854), +81 deaths (now 8894) since 23 hours ago15:04
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Convocazione del Consiglio dei Ministri n. 25 ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/convocazione-del-consiglio-dei-ministri-n-25/17243 )16:01
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Consiglio dei Ministri n. 25 ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/consiglio-dei-ministri-n-25/17244 )16:01
BrainstormUpdates for Bangladesh: +5727 cases (now 866877), +85 deaths (now 13787) since a day ago — Canada: +51 deaths (now 26140) since 22 hours ago16:06
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Morgan Stanley will bar workers without Covid vaccinations from most New York offices beginning July 12 → https://is.gd/9u1JPc16:14
BrainstormUpdates for Tajikistan: +152 cases (now 13460) since 20 days ago — Israel: +87 cases (now 840166) since 19 hours ago16:31
BrainstormNew from BMJ Open: Impact of a 12-week open-label placebo treatment on headache days in episodic and chronic migraine: a study protocol for a parallel-group, multicentre, randomised controlled trial: Introduction Migraine is the most common neurological disorder and one of the major causes of years lived with disability. Its treatment (especially of [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/TOz8bV16:35
BrainstormNew from BMJ: Covid-19: Israel advises against foreign travel after recording 125 new cases: Israel’s new prime minister, Naftali Bennett, is reconvening the coronavirus cabinet and has urged Israelis to avoid non-urgent foreign travel after 125 people tested positive for coronavirus on 21... → https://is.gd/eYWlaq16:46
BrainstormNew from LitCovid: (news): Antiviral drugs proposed for COVID-19: action mechanism and pharmacological data. → https://is.gd/Jd0LHu17:07
darsie%austria17:20
genera%cases17:24
Brainstormgenera: Sorry,  not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name.17:24
generaIs this Delta Plus real?17:24
genera%cases Österreich17:24
Brainstormgenera: Sorry, Österreich not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name.17:24
dendtriticcell[mthis whole current science that you're being told that you need a vaccine to produce a antibodies from a spike protein to protect you from a virus, that's not the biology of viruses that we know since 2010.17:31
dendtriticcell[mwe gave the nobel prize of chemistry to dr doudna and her partner who discovered cas9. an enzyme that sits inside of the the human cell and determines which virus you're going to transcribe or which protein you're going to make. it's the database that remembers which viruses have been there and what you've done with them what you allowed to translate and everything. you've got the nobel prize winner for discovering cas9 talking about17:31
dendtriticcell[mhow the body has the intelligence of vaccination within it and it doesn't have anything to do with antibiotics it has to do with this protein synthesis decision at cas9. we took what was the most important discovery in the immune system and we co-opted it as a technology to start genetically modifying ourselves against the very microbiome that cas9 worked with to create and create the intelligence of the human genome.17:31
dendtriticcell[m * this whole current science that you're being told that you need a vaccine to produce antibodies from a spike protein to protect you from a virus, that's not the biology of viruses that we know since 2010.17:32
dendtriticcell[mwe gave the nobel prize of chemistry to dr doudna and her partner who discovered cas9. an enzyme that sits inside of the the human cell and determines which virus you're going to transcribe or which protein you're going to make. it's the database that remembers which viruses have been there and what you've done with them what you allowed to translate and everything. you've got the nobel prize winner for discovering cas9 talking about17:32
dendtriticcell[mhow the body has the intelligence of vaccination within it and it doesn't have anything to do with antibiotics it has to do with this protein synthesis decision at cas9. we took what was the most important discovery in the immune system and we co-opted it as a technology to start genetically modifying ourselves against the very microbiome that cas9 worked with to create and create the intelligence of the human genome.17:32
BrainstormUpdates for Portugal: +1497 cases (now 868323), +3 deaths (now 17077) since 23 hours ago — Switzerland: +154 cases (now 702278) since 2 hours ago17:33
de-facto.title http://metrics.covid19-analysis.org/ <-- South America is having way too much incidence (try "Daily new cases per million")17:59
Brainstormde-facto: From metrics.covid19-analysis.org: COVID-19 Spread Mapper18:00
de-facto.title https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations <-- it seems their vaccination programs are not progressing fast enough, hence i guess it would be a good idea to support their campaigns (as would many other areas need support too)18:01
Brainstormde-facto: From ourworldindata.org: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations - Statistics and Research - Our World in Data18:01
de-factoI would not be surprised if a new VoC is bred with its high incidence18:03
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +13643 cases (now 4.7 million) since 15 hours ago — Gibraltar: +9 cases (now 4332) since a day ago18:10
dendtriticcell[mhttps://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/slides-2021-06.html18:15
dendtriticcell[mi trust everyone is fallowing along with the ACIP meeting currently taking place18:15
dendtriticcell[mhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lc7TnFWdYzY18:15
LjLdendtriticcell[m: what is that nonsense? It sounded like nonsense from the start but then you said viruses don't have to do with antibiotics? SERIOUSLY? WOW, who could have guessed that18:16
LjLAssuming that's you and not a copypaste from some random antivax crap18:16
dendtriticcell[m it's a quote from a real life doctor. https://zachbushmd.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/zach-bush-md-pr-deck-web.pdf18:17
de-factoyet the myocarditis links are interesting18:17
dendtriticcell[myes the slide showing 0-4 expected events vs 128 observed, really inspires confidence in their ability to forecast and predict safety profiles.18:19
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Support for the Resumption of Training of High-level Athletes Post-epidemic COVID-19 → https://is.gd/HvlJav18:20
de-factoit was to be expected already though, yet its nice they provide numbers now18:20
dendtriticcell[mlooks like the highest risk is for 19yo males 2 days after the second dose.18:22
de-factoyeah for about a week or such18:22
de-factostill we have to keep in mind its few cases still (quite low incidence but significantly elevated compared to background expectation value)18:23
de-factoso i guess sports in the first week after the shot is not such a good idea?18:24
de-factowhy is it mainly young males?18:27
de-factothats interesting, i wonder about the cause for that overexposure of that group18:28
de-factohttps://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-06/03-COVID-Shimabukuro-508.pdf18:29
de-facto!title18:29
de-facto.title18:29
Brainstormde-facto: From www.cdc.gov: CDC Awardee COVID-19 Vaccination Planning Meeting (Doughan, Rola N. (CDC/DDID/NCIRD/OD) (CTR))18:29
BrainstormNew from In The Pipeline: Ei-ichi Negishi, 1935-2021: Earlier this month, organic chemist Ei-ichi Negishi died at the age of 85. I missed this event (I wasn’t posting during those few days) so I wanted to note it here, because Negishi was a huge name in the field. There’s a Nobel prize to back that statement up (Chemistry, 2010), and plenty of [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/w7Cebo18:30
LjLdendtriticcell[m, "a real life doctor" doesn't mean a thing when it's a pseudoscience pusher   https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/critical-thinking-pseudoscience/droning-preacher-mitochondrial-ecstasy   https://www.reddit.com/r/richroll/comments/guko6h/zach_bush_quack_or_science/18:32
LjLto be clear that sort of bullshit is not okay here18:32
dendtriticcell[mI'm confused, are you calling the nobel winning discovery of the cas9 protein synthesis mechanism as bullshit?18:37
dendtriticcell[mI would love to hear your thoughts on how adaptive immunity works if you think it's nonsense.18:38
dendtriticcell[mthe world health organizations page just yesterday said "children should not be vaccinated"18:38
dendtriticcell[mhttps://web.archive.org/web/20210621232003/https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/covid-19-vaccines/advice18:38
dendtriticcell[mnow they edit the page and say all good, without providing any additional science as to why they have suddenly changed positions. this is the very definition of bullshit18:39
dendtriticcell[mbut i'm guessing it's considered an official and legitimate 'source'?18:39
LjLno. invoking an authority (such as a nobel prize winner) to put things into their mouth that aren't at all the absurdities that are being stated is not an acceptable debate tactic so what i will do is ban you18:39
LjLagain, antibiotics for viruses, what the fuck... and you purport to make *that* be the nobel prize's claim or counterclaim18:40
dendtriticcell[mhttps://www.ted.com/talks/jennifer_doudna_how_crispr_lets_us_edit_our_dna/transcript18:41
dendtriticcell[m"the CRISPR locus is effectively a genetic vaccination card in cells"18:41
dendtriticcell[mfrom the inventor of gene editing tech, admitting we have all the tools we need already sounds like18:42
LjL-MatrixPeter, just noting, this is the one that previously used "absolute efficacy" of 0.8% for one of the vaccine to claim that "the efficacy" was 0.8%18:44
LjL-MatrixI discussed that thing with someone with more of a clue than me, too, and the absolute efficacy number isn't *meaningless*, it has its uses, but it's just completely dishonest debate tactics to tell people to look at the paper and then boldly state that 0.8% is "the efficacy" when people clearly have another notion of efficacy and largely won't understand the paper18:45
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Vaccinated Israelis may need to quarantine because of Delta variant → https://is.gd/9Ka9Br19:01
BrainstormNew from WebMD: Hospital Workers Fired, Resign Over Vaccine Policy: More than 150 hospital workers at Houston Methodist are fired or resign after refusing to follow a policy that requires employees to be vaccinated against COVID-19. → https://is.gd/Ck0oOg19:12
BrainstormNew from WebMD: Pandemic May Have Created a 'Baby Bust,' Not Boom: U.S. health officials report the pandemic appears to have triggered a deep drop in the number of births. → https://is.gd/DEFlXs19:32
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +437 cases (now 3.7 million), +41 deaths (now 90873) since 22 hours ago — Canada: +49 deaths (now 26143) since 22 hours ago19:37
LjLthis is an article auto-translated from italian, i won't mention exactly where it comes from becaaaaaause19:37
LjLbut it appears to be written by a couple of people with a medical/research clue, not journalists19:37
LjLhttps://paste.ee/r/qu8h3/019:37
LjLit basically says that there are indications that mRNA vaccines may not be sustenable in the long run (i.e. if we need a third, fourth, n+1th dose)19:38
LjLbecause 1) we've already seen that the second dose cause more adverse reactions than the first, unlike other vaccines (like AZ), and so they extrapolate it to further doses, and 2) we also can extrapolate it to further doses because there are studies about it (unfortunately it doesn't mention which, but i assume earlier animal studies, it does mention a Margaret Liu as someone with this stance)19:39
LjLthe conclusion is that unless we manage to make sure with good trials that we *can* in fact continue using mRNA doses indefinitely, we may want to look at things like Novavax instead for the next doses19:40
* bamboo_enjoyer[m < https://libera.ems.host/_matrix/media/r0/download/libera.chat/a137cfebd0181cc70787d3e3a4f61403f4dede21/message.txt >19:40
TimvdeLjL: That would be extremely sad19:41
TimvdeAnd probably more like a temporary setback, I'm sure that further research into mRNA vaccines will be able to decrease the side-effects19:42
TimvdeI'd like to see the studies though, it doesn't sound like something you can extrapolate based on two doses19:42
Timvde(but I'm also not going to contradict it, as I don't have the medical background to do so)19:43
de-factohmm that indeed is an interesting question, do we actually know against which of the compoments in the mRNA vaccines the short-term side effects are directed?19:58
de-factoi doubt it is as simple as its just "mRNA", since there are so many other aspects involved aswell19:59
de-factofor example those LipidNanoParticles, they also got surface molecules, so do we know if an immune reaction also could be directed against that?19:59
de-factoor maybe also what about if those lipids break up and release the mRNA, maybe the "trashing" of those lipids also may cause some side effects?20:01
BrainstormUpdates for Mozambique: +436 cases (now 73211), +5 deaths (now 857) since 17 hours ago — Jersey: +17 cases (now 3339) since 4 hours ago20:02
de-factoafaik virion particles "hide" their surfaces by coating themselves with sugars etc, so maybe that also could be done with LNPs? (idk if such a thing is possible)20:04
de-factoHIV would be one example that heavily uses those "hiding behind sugar molecules" to evade immune responses against its surface20:04
de-factobut then, how would that affect cellular fusion mechanisms by those LNPs if something similar could prevent an immune reaction against them?20:05
de-factoand to be fair, that is completely speculative, afaik we dont even know if immune system reactions are directed against LNPs20:05
de-factoyet i guess if planing for updating shots with mRNA platform frequently we really need to find out such things and get more data about that20:06
de-factofor sure a simple linear extrapolation of side effects would neglect non-linear effects such as saturation or even self-amplifying effects etc20:07
de-factobut indeed its a very interesting subject that we really need to know more about, they are raising quite some valid points there i guess20:08
de-factoidk i kind of doubt the side effects are against the mRNA itself, wouldn't any free floating mRNA immediately be destroyed by those ribonuclease that are everywhere around in the body?20:11
de-factothats why i wonder about if it could be against either molecules in, or surfaces of those LipidNanoParticles, why would those not appear as an antigen to the immune system?20:12
de-factoi mean if adenovirus platforms could "burn" why not LNPs aswell?20:13
de-facto(with burn i mean that an immune reaction against the platform itself (in addition/rather than the desired antigen) is raised by repeating shots)20:14
de-factoall highly speculative though, what do you think?20:15
BrainstormUpdates for Moldova: +92 cases (now 256324), +3 deaths (now 6178) since 23 hours ago — Italy: +1140 cases (now 4.3 million), +30 deaths (now 127352) since a day ago — India: +49222 cases (now 30.0 million), +1282 deaths (now 390658) since 19 hours ago — France: +37 deaths (now 110895) since 23 hours ago20:39
BrainstormNew from StatNews: STAT+: What the cancer research community can learn from the Covid-19 response: “There’s no doubt that Covid caught all of research off guard,” said Paul Kluetz, deputy director of the FDA's Oncology Center of Excellence. → https://is.gd/8LRCDI20:46
de-factobtw that above there is another strong argument pro multi-platform approaches for vaccinations20:59
BrainstormUpdates for South Africa: +17493 cases (now 1.9 million), +166 deaths (now 59258) since 23 hours ago21:04
BrainstormNew from StatNews: Officials note ‘likely association’ between Covid-19 vaccines and rare heart condition in young people: U.S. scientists said Wednesday that there was a “likely association” between mRNA Covid-19 vaccines and an elevated risk of heart issues in adolescents and young adults, the strongest statement yet… → https://is.gd/kGLf5E21:06
sunnydayjesusive seen sunny days i thought would never end21:12
sunnydayjesus"As of a couple of days ago, 20.6 percent of the isolates are Delta," Fauci said, referring to the two weeks leading up to 19 June. This number has roughly doubled every two weeks, he added.21:12
BrainstormNew from Scientific American: How to Prevent the Next Pandemic: Workers unload supplies of the AstraZeneca COVID vaccine in Abidjan, Ivory Coast in February 2021. → https://is.gd/psGNYh21:16
sunnydayjesusdenmark used to be around 0.6% indian variant for a few weeks, according to their stats anyway, the last week was 5.5%21:18
sunnydayjesusbavaria, germany: In the period from June 14th to 20th, the proportion of the mutation grew to 24.6 percent21:20
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Consiglio europeo del 24-25 giugno ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/consiglio-europeo-del-24-25-giugno/17250 )21:21
sunnydayjesusLooking at Gisaid data in comparison with the FT’s projections, the share of Delta cases in Italy currently stands at 7.7 percent. However, this isn’t the full picture as not all laboratories that carry out genomic sequencing share the results in real time in the international database21:23
sunnydayjesus.title https://www.thelocal.it/20210622/coronavirus-how-much-is-the-delta-variant-spreading-in-italy/21:24
Brainstormsunnydayjesus, the URL could not be loaded21:24
sunnydayjesusdoom doom. but it takes awhile until it really starts to increase the cased, during the middle of summer and all this moisture21:25
sunnydayjesuseg if R would be 0.8 with kent variant, and indian variant would be 60% more transmissible, when indian gets to 30% share, it would still be a bit under 1 (if nothing else changes)21:29
BrainstormUpdates for Spain: +4341 cases (now 3.8 million), +29 deaths (now 80748) since a day ago21:29
sunnydayjesusthen the delay from infection to symptoms, and when those that are more likely get infection are less likely to get symptoms, it may take couple weeks on top of it reaching 50% share before something really starts to show up21:30
sunnydayjesuseu case numbers have been on plateau the last 11 days or so. maybe this  is it, the lowest point of cases this summer. too bad owid doesnt have share of positive cases for the whole eu21:36
sunnydayjesuspostitive *tests21:37
sunnydayjesusso, i estimated something like 75-79% immunity in israel around end of april or so, total from vaxes and infektions, and it was enough for them keep the R under 1 for the restrictions they still had. but almost all kent variant back then21:39
de-factonixonix we have seen exactly that already with B.1.1.7, now B.1.617.2 is just the second time this will happen, with the difference that now we got a lot of vaccinations against original Wuhan spike-glycoprotein21:39
sunnydayjesusdo you mean cases start to go up in the middle of summer again?21:41
de-factoits hard to tell, it depends on how fast vaccinations progress and also if there is still some effect from people spending more time outdoors and school holidays in the summer etc21:42
sunnydayjesusim not fond of antibody tests. one, if not really large prevalence, they usually omit the share of false positives, or even if not, get it wrong anyway. then they arent usually sensitive enough to find antibodies from all that have had infection21:43
sunnydayjesusbut anyways:21:43
sunnydayjesus.title https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-9-in-10-adults-in-england-estimated-to-have-antibodies/21:43
de-factoi think we need to progress as fast as possible with vaccinations for that reason21:43
Brainstormsunnydayjesus: From www.newscientist.com: Covid-19 news: Lasting symptoms common in young adults, study finds | New Scientist21:43
sunnydayjesusit threw a wrong title. it was about antibody tests in uk21:43
de-factonormally they at least *try* to adjust for such waning below sensitivity threshold21:44
de-factoat least i have seen some papers trying to do that21:44
sunnydayjesusthe week starting june 7. combined from infections and and vaxes: In Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland, equivalent figures were 88.7 per cent, 85.4 per cent and 79.1 per cent, respectively21:45
sunnydayjesusand it seems thats not enough for indian variant (with that uncertainty with numbers, like always with antibody tests)21:45
de-factoreproduction is always dependent on a whole spectrum of cofactors, human behavior (as they are aware of that) and vaccination rates among them21:46
de-factonixonix, interesting with denmark https://www.covid19genomics.dk/statistics21:51
de-factoindeed they were long time below 0.X% now at 5.5%21:52
de-factobut also their absolute numbers dropped a lot, so those 5.5% still are referring to a similar number of B.1.617.2 cases21:52
de-factoe.g. in the low X-tenfolds, so hopefully that raise in percentage mainly was to dropping incidence of B.1.1.7 rather than raise oin B.1.617.2 (yet unfortunately that would be the expectation value from it being ~150% as reproductive as B.1.1.7)21:54
nixonixlikely it was just variance because of low number of cases, so that the share actually increased. if you start from very low number, and not much variant comes over the borders, it can take a long time to get those first few percentages21:54
de-factobegin always is contributed by imported cases and clusters around them21:55
nixonixwe dont have that problem, both russians and finnish that came from watching soccer just imported lots of indian variant yesterday21:55
de-factoaaw dang :/21:55
de-factothat does not sound good21:55
nixonixfrom 800 that came back yesterday, some of the results came back, and 34 postitive. there will be more, and most of them dont show positive that soon anyway21:55
ArsaneritB.1.617.2?21:56
de-factoyep21:56
Arsaneritare all returners in mandatory quarantaine?21:56
nixonixso there could be serveral hundred, when most of them were in buses, and got infection from those that were already transmissive21:56
Arsanerithow many are vaccinated?21:56
nixonixonly those that were identified positive. they could even get a ticket if found breaching the guarantine. i think couple of people have got a ticket during this epidemic21:57
de-factoyeah that sounds like realistic scenario unfortunately21:57
nixonixbut those others, they are just recommended to self-guarantee for a few says, and recommended to get tested after that21:57
BrainstormNew from CIDRAP: COVID-19 Scan for Jun 23, 2021: Undiagnosed COVID-19 Long COVID after mild illness → https://is.gd/fwSeoJ21:57
de-factoyeah it may delay it then, but not prevent import if quarantine is not strictly mandatory and controlled21:58
ArsaneritI have long ago given up on the idea on our politicians taking necessary travel restrictions seriously.21:58
nixonixand anyways, they only tested minority of them on the border, because russians had changed their customs system which "surprised them". maybe russians are happy to see the variant spread faster in their neighbouring country...21:58
nixonixwe have very little stuff that is mandatory here, or could lead to ticket or anything. compared to rest of europe or prob the world21:59
Arsaneritnot much enforcement here either22:00
Arsaneritif coming from a virus variant area one is not allowed in public transport, but I don't think that's enforced22:00
ArsaneritAnd Portugal still not classified as virus variant area22:01
de-factoooff RKI just published a new VoC report today22:01
nixonixwasnt it lisbon area mostly indian variant now? but not that much in northern pt22:01
Arsanerit20% delta in Germany now isn' tit?22:01
nixonixthat was bavaria22:01
ArsaneritI tohught hessen too22:02
nixonixnobody knows in most of europe, because large randomized sequencing is rare, and even rarer to use those variant recognizing assays, that are now available22:02
nixonixand i think those countries that know, dont necessarily tell, because they dont want other world to lock their borders from them22:02
nixonixthat happened with kent variant. eg in estonia. they knew, and said nothing22:03
Arsaneritwhat's the kent variant?22:03
de-facto.title https://imgur.com/a/GbzxUaF https://i.imgur.com/ojiRNoL.png https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/DESH/Bericht_VOC_2021-06-23.pdf?__blob=publicationFile22:03
Brainstormde-facto: From imgur.com: COVID Germany: Evolution of SARS-CoV-2-VoCs - Album on Imgur22:03
Brainstormde-facto: From imgur.com: COVID Germany: Evolution of SARS-CoV-2-VoCs - Album on Imgur22:03
nixonixthe most common uk variant. they call b.1.1.7 kent variant in united kingdom22:04
ArsaneritOh, I know B.1.1.7. a.k.a. Alpha.22:04
de-factoWeek 23 of 2021 Germany got 15.1% B.1.617.222:04
de-factoso that means this is going to dominate our incidence soon22:05
ArsaneritBut total cases are down.  How does the absolute number of B.1.617.2 develop?22:05
nixonixit will take its share the same rate, whatever the current R is22:05
de-factoyes cases are going down but last time i analyzed pure B.1.617.2 cases it had R~1.1622:05
de-factonot sure about the new data from today would have to do that later22:06
nixonixunless those areas or groups that have more that variant of concern, are contained more efficiently than those that dont22:06
ArsaneritFrom what I've heard it's difficult to model the forecast for pure B.1.617.2 in the context of the impact of summer weather and vaccinations.22:06
de-factolast analysis22:06
BrainstormUpdates for Myanmar: +680 cases (now 149927), +2 deaths (now 3269) since 23 hours ago22:06
de-facto.title https://imgur.com/a/6ZVF75t https://i.imgur.com/8DkPA8K.png "COVID Germany: Evolution of PANGO Lineage B.1.617.2"  https://imgur.com/a/W9NDdNu https://i.imgur.com/FJfSHWO.png src: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/DESH/Bericht_VOC_2021-06-16.pdf?__blob=publicationFile22:06
Brainstormde-facto: From imgur.com: COVID Germany: Evolution of PANGO Lineage B.1.617.2 - Album on Imgur22:06
de-factoCases(B.1.617.2) = Cases(05.04.2021) R^(t/4) = 0.55 1.16^(t/4) hence R(B.617.2) ~ 1.16 with T2 = 4d Ln(2) / Ln(1.16) =  18.7d22:06
de-factohmm not so good the new reproduction might be R~1.3322:11
nixonixjohn mcafee found dead in cell22:12
de-factofor the percentages that is22:12
Arsaneritnixonix: why was he in a cell?22:12
nixonixsome tax thing22:13
nixonix.title https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-5758982222:13
Brainstormnixonix: From www.bbc.com: John McAfee: Anti-virus creator found dead in prison cell - BBC News22:13
nixonixtoo bad. world would be too serious and boring without these national treasures22:15
Arsaneritnormally prisoners shouldn't be able to commit suicide easily22:15
nixonixthat would require no sheets, pillows or anything, or constant sucide monitoring22:16
nixonixeven clothes made from paper, you can twine them to a short rope thats enough22:18
de-factooof looking at RKIs other dataset with absolute numbers shows R~1.78 for delta in Germany, though the latest datapoint is unusually high there22:18
de-factoyeah without that latest point its more like R~1.24, that looks more realistic22:19
de-factobut it also means there was an outbreak somewhere, e.g. they sequenced inside a cluster or such22:19
nixonixtoo late to contain anyway22:20
de-factoyes it will take over now22:20
de-factoanother successful import22:20
nixonixmaybe in denmark. if they are very strict with border traffic, and track the cases using enough resources. contain so that vaccinations will get a month or two extra22:21
nixonixthey have been relying on test and vax certificates to get in events, bars etc22:22
de-factopossibly the Danish demonstrated they are quite capable, but they also have it in their country already22:22
nixonixisrael style22:22
de-factoyeah i fear that right now with "relaxing summer" big mistakes might being made, i hope not though22:22
nixonixit happened already pretty much everywhere in europe. too late. just try to keep the cases down now, so it will be easier later22:23
de-factolast year we had 1/10 incidence of what we have now and obviously delta is already on the rise22:23
de-factowe really need much faster vaccination rates22:24
de-factobut yeah oh well ...22:24
nixonixpfizer had they puurs production doubled or so. the effect was supposed to be immediate22:25
nixonixhow they still havent announced doubled shipments to eu?22:25
nixonixhowcome22:25
nixonixeu should twist their spine now22:26
nixonixwe should just close the bars, or close them earlier and stuff, events etc.. it would be easier later if done now22:28
nixonixwhen case numbers are low, they are easier to keep them so. not that you wait until they are amost untraceable level again22:29
de-factobtw Israel got a tiny outbreak few hundred cases probably a day ago or such22:29
nixonixyeah i read, schools mostly, and supposedly the indian variant22:30
de-factohttps://www.timesofisrael.com/daily-covid-19-cases-surge-to-125-the-highest-figure-in-two-months/22:30
nixonixhere most of "school cases" are actually outside of school, when kids see each other. they still closed some classes and even schools couple times, until they mostly stopped that which didnt help anything22:31
de-facto"Health officials, blaming arrivals from abroad who did not adhere to quarantine rules as the prime cause of the outbreak, said Tuesday that increased fines will likely be introduced to punish violators."22:31
BrainstormUpdates for Morocco: +522 cases (now 527696), +7 deaths (now 9254) since a day ago22:31
de-factomaybe those rules really should be enforced much much more strictly22:31
nixonixremote schooling would help, because kids then see each other less and with smaller number than in after school activity. but thats terrible for kids for sure22:31
de-factoi think import should be targeted way more aggressively22:33
de-factoonce its in community spread its present, no chance to get rid of it anymore then, the problem only can be controlled by enforcing NPIs and reducing contacts etc22:34
de-factoI hope Israel did not import VoCs there, yet if cases really originated abroad its highly likely22:35
BrainstormNew from Politico: Live blog: EU summit: Leaders talk COVID travel rules, Russia, Turkey and Hungary’s anti-LGBTQ+ law. → https://is.gd/cocckt22:38
de-factooh btw nixonix you might be interested in https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/slides-2021-06.html just came out today22:40
de-factoespecially https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-06/03-COVID-Shimabukuro-508.pdf22:40
BrainstormNew from Gazzetta Ufficiale italiana: MINISTERO DELLA SALUTE - ORDINANZA 22 giugno 2021: Ulteriori misure  urgenti  in  materia  di  contenimento  e  gestionedell'emergenza  epidemiologica  da   COVID-19   in   «zona   bianca».(21A03849) → https://is.gd/MaD7pX22:58
nixonixill check those links in a bit, something to do23:08
nixonixbut meawhile: https://twitter.com/jcbarret/status/140764003655682458523:08
BrainstormNew from CIDRAP: Experts: mRNA COVID-19 vaccines likely tied to heart inflammation: Stephanie Soucheray | News Reporter | CIDRAP News Jun 23, 2021 HHS: The risk of myocarditis and pericarditis are much higher from contracting COVID-19 than from vaccines. → https://is.gd/amvTiL23:08
de-facto.title https://imgur.com/a/3GZNsxx https://i.imgur.com/qNLffRV.png src: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/DESH/Bericht_VOC_2021-06-23.pdf?__blob=publicationFile23:24
Brainstormde-facto: From imgur.com: COVID Germany: Incidence of alpha, beta, gamma and delta SARS-CoV-2-VoCs - Album on Imgur23:24
nixonixwhile i think (before watching ACIP's announcements) the most likely reason for those myocardites is probably the immune response, do you know if your country, usa, uk, israel etc use aspiration with those mrna vaccines?23:24
nixonixhere its not used, but i heard couple other nordic countries recommend it23:25
de-factoSTIKO in Germany does not recommend it, i asked the doc before injection to to it anyways23:25
de-factohttps://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/Infekt/Impfen/Stichwortliste/A/Aspiration.html23:26
nixonixi was thinking maybe ill ask the nurse to use it for my second dose. some think its good to use, some thing an experience nurse sees if it hits a vessel or not. but how about those rare mistakes, or inexperienced nurse?23:26
de-factoidk i have to admit i disagree with that personally23:26
nixonixaspiration to be used?23:26
de-factothey say to avoid pain, yet it did not hurt a bit when she did it23:26
de-factoi would also not care if it did hurt, i want aspiration with all my injections period23:27
nixonixthen those thrombosis and thrombocytopenias from adenovirus vaccines, hitting a vessel might be more likely reason (than myocarditis frm mrna vaccines)23:29
de-factoi had the same idea, though have to admit that i dont know that, both those side effects and also hitting a vessel are extremely rare23:32
de-factoso its hard to link that, but my approach would be: aspiration is such a simple thing, does not cost anything, so if there is the slightest possibility that it could lower the risk of side effects, why not just do it as per default?23:32
de-factoit literally takes 2 seconds23:33
nixonixsome nurse once told the reasoning why not. there was some reason, but i cant remember what it was...23:33
BrainstormUpdates for Malawi: +189 cases (now 35115), +6 deaths (now 1177) since 22 hours ago — India: +49269 cases (now 30.0 million), +1283 deaths (now 390659) since 22 hours ago23:33
de-factopain reduction they say, but how to reduce pain if it does not hurt at all in the first place?23:34
de-factostress free vaccination they say, tbh it reduced my stress level a lot when she agreed to do the aspiration23:35
nixonixthose dont hurt. those blood samples from arm are different, they might just hit the nerve while trying again several times23:35
de-factoi dont see their point there tbh23:36
nixonixi guess the reasoning why not wasnt a biggie, and the reason why yes could potentially be, with viral vector or whole virus vaccines if not mrna. i think ill ask the next time23:36
de-factoIF it would be like it would hurt a lot (which simply is NOT the case) and it would prevent people from coming back for their second shot (which also is NOT the case) then i would see their point, but its simply not the case23:37
nixonixthe reason that nurce told wasnt pain. i dont remember so it prob didnt think it was important23:37
de-factoi would like to know a better reason, pain is not true (from my own experience)23:38
de-factook N=1, fair, but i doubt it would stress people, en contraire23:39
BrainstormNew from WebMD: Varied COVID Vaccination Rates May Lead to 'Two Americas': Will disparities in vaccination rates lead to a divided America? Also, new research reveals how much vaccinated populations might protect the unvaccinated. → https://is.gd/GY0wPE23:40
de-facto.title https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5333604/23:43
Brainstormde-facto: From www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov: Aspiration in injections: should we continue or abandon the practice?23:43
nixonixif those myocardites from mrna vaccine are real, they seem to appear during the first few says, not later. which means its immune reaction, not s-protein23:44
nixonixi mean not antibodies. hmm could still be s-protein that detaches right away23:45
nixonixthe cell expression of s-protein should mostly continue around 3 days if i recall23:46
de-factomyocarditis in the first week according to https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-06/03-COVID-Shimabukuro-508.pdf23:46
nixonixalthough ive seen older mrna paper where it continued for 10 days or so, but i had a source saying 72 hours for mrna vaccines. not from manufacturers though23:47
de-factonixonix, did you not link a paper with S-protein and S1 subunits some time ago?23:47
de-factolike with days after injection?23:47
de-factomaybe we could super-impose those graphs and see if they seem to correlate?23:48
nixonixnot sure what was meant, after injection or after it gets into cell23:48
de-facto.title https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciab465/627907523:49
Brainstormde-facto: From academic.oup.com: Circulating SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Antigen Detected in the Plasma of mRNA-1273 Vaccine Recipients | Clinical Infectious Diseases | Oxford Academic23:49
de-factohmm their Fig1 A and B23:50
de-factothat looks similar a bit23:51
de-factohmm23:51
de-factopage 1423:51
nixonixi found some information on sars2 induced amounts of s1 and whole spikes, and compared them to those induced by mrna vaccine, i wrote about it here another day. both done with simoa assay23:52
nixonixnot sure if anybody read, nobody was commenting23:52
nixonixanyways, the amounts of S1 were similar, but whole spikes sars2 had something like 6-7 times more than with mrna vaccine23:53
nixonixin plasma, that is23:53
de-factohmm saturated departure pathway same for both causing S123:54
de-factoor such?23:54
nixonixamounts found in plasma. levels were extremely small even during sars2 infection23:55

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