libera/##covid-19/ Thursday, 2021-06-24

nixonix	page 36 of that pdf, very large CI's, then theres very different for "any mrna" compared to pfizer - and moderna lacks data	00:05
nixonix	could it be that it lacks adjusted part, because its not approved for 12-15 yo i think	00:06
nixonix	or under 18 it says	00:07
nixonix	too bad they need to use VAERS where anyone could report anything	00:09
nixonix	hey what german officials have found about myocarditis? or italy, france, any larger country?	00:10
Brainstorm	Updates for Zimbabwe: +766 cases (now 43480), +1 deaths (now 1692) since 19 hours ago	00:11
nixonix	proinflammatory cytokines in pulmonary circulation. funny it looks like its higher from moderna, when pfizer produces more those immune response side effects due to more type 2 helper t-cell associated cytokines	00:15
nixonix	and moderna has more mrna, 100 vs 30	00:15
nixonix	although the confidence intervals are wide and mostly overlapping, so isnt much of a signal from anything	00:15
de-facto	.title https://imgur.com/a/8RD3wyo https://i.imgur.com/vvH53DO.png	00:17
Brainstorm	de-facto: From imgur.com: Myocarditis / Pericarditis to VAERS after mRNA-1273 - Album on Imgur	00:17
de-facto	nixonix, there tried to overlay the graphs from the mRNA-1273 paper and todays CDC release about myocarditis (see the source links in the descripton)	00:18
de-facto	.title https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-06/03-COVID-Shimabukuro-508.pdf	00:20
Brainstorm	de-facto: From www.cdc.gov: CDC Awardee COVID-19 Vaccination Planning Meeting (Doughan, Rola N. (CDC/DDID/NCIRD/OD) (CTR))	00:20
de-facto	.title https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciab465/6279075	00:20
Brainstorm	de-facto: From academic.oup.com: Circulating SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Antigen Detected in the Plasma of mRNA-1273 Vaccine Recipients \| Clinical Infectious Diseases \| Oxford Academic	00:20
de-facto	those two	00:20
de-facto	I tried to align the graphs in the first 9 days because after that the scales differ	00:21
nixonix	where was the original pic of those protein levels? supplementary material of that Circulating... paper?	00:24
nixonix	or do i have old version without pics	00:25
nixonix	ah found, i somehow skipped over it	00:25
de-facto	last page of the paper	00:25
nixonix	ok, it looks like it would correlate with S1	00:26
nixonix	but not quite. s1 is a bit later, and you would think its the symptoms that come with delay	00:27
de-facto	yes correlate, might also have a common cause behind that (well at least the vaccine itself)	00:27
nixonix	yeah, as it prob is, imo	00:28
de-facto	yeah i am not sure if they count exactly the same, i also would say it somewhat correlates	00:28
de-facto	not sure about age group etc pp, but timeframe and pattern fits i guess	00:28
nixonix	id be interested in what other countries have found	00:29
nixonix	large countries like uk, france germany italy	00:29
nixonix	and do they know if similar doesnt appear with all or most other vaccines?	00:31
nixonix	have they ever looked hard enough to see any signal?	00:31
de-facto	also why are men so much more affected than woman?	00:31
nixonix	men have stronger immune response	00:31
de-facto	thats also some kind of hint to the under-laying process	00:32
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Seattle scientist digs up deleted coronavirus genetic data, adding fuel to the covid origin debate → https://is.gd/Xo1BfV	00:32
nixonix	(if we go with my hypotheses, its just the immune response)	00:32
de-facto	nope females have stronger auto-immune responses and also immune responses afaik	00:32
nixonix	..thesis	00:32
de-facto	i dont think either is overexposed in side effects, but with this particular one men clearly are according to CDC dada	00:33
de-facto	*data	00:33
de-facto	so there must be some difference that causes this to occur more often in male than in female	00:33
de-facto	(btw to be clear its extremely rare still, we just are discussing it out of interest, i am going to take my second Moderna without hesitation)	00:35
Brainstorm	Updates for Tunisia: +3638 cases (now 391411), +95 deaths (now 14318) since 22 hours ago	00:35
nixonix	there seems to be different information of strength of immune response between sexes. ill prob look at that more closely and see what i can find. innate immune response would be guilty in this case	00:36
de-facto	yes or maybe something cellular as you said like ACE2 et al	00:36
nixonix	and it seems to vary between viral infections, and parts of immune response	00:38
nixonix	but generally its stronger for women	00:39
de-facto	maybe there really is a mechanism linking that S1 with some receptors on heart muscle or such, but assuming there would be something like that, what would S1 dock onto there?	00:40
de-facto	ACE2 and block it?	00:40
Brainstorm	New from NPR: The Pandemic Led To The Biggest Drop In U.S. Life Expectancy Since WW II, Study Finds: Life expectancy fell by nearly 2 years between 2018 and 2020, largely due to COVID-19. Declines were most pronounced among minority groups, including Black and Hispanic people. → https://is.gd/McpGN6	00:42
de-facto	i dont know about heart muscle cells and their pathways	00:42
nixonix	while the above is generally true, its mostly so that those important parts suppressing the infection are higher for women	00:44
de-facto	hmm you know what speaks against that S1 myocarditis correlation there	00:45
nixonix	but this wasnt the case, but about detrimental response, that might cause those myocardites	00:45
de-facto	the myocarditis is mainly after second dose, the s1 after first dose (i think)	00:45
nixonix	like: "These data indicated that innate inflammatory cytokines and chemokines are more robustly elevated early and throughout disease course in male patients over female patients	00:45
de-facto	so that would unlink it	00:45
nixonix	something like that i remembered, thats why i wondered for awhile how was it again (for sars2, that is)	00:46
nixonix	s1 causing it would be far-fetched anyway (while should still be considered as a possibility, imo)	00:47
de-facto	but why is myocarditis mainly after 2nd dose in young men?	00:48
nixonix	why isnt ljl here speculating these with us?	00:48
nixonix	well, those side effects come mostly from 2nd dose too	00:49
nixonix	exp that slight shoulder pain	00:49
nixonix	it looks like immune response caused, it walks like immune response...	00:49
de-facto	from the paper "After the second vaccine dose, no S1 or spike was detectable, and both antigens remained undetectable through day 56."	00:49
de-facto	so yeah forget about the S1 myocarditis link	00:50
de-facto	i take everything back, yet glad i looked into it to find that detail	00:50
de-facto	so it must be something else with the 2nd dose then	00:51
LjL	uh i don't know	00:51
nixonix	yeah its good to look at. also good to have arguments ready for anti-vaxers who are excited about s1 currently	00:51
nixonix	glad they arent about nanoparticles, because thats much harder subject	00:51
LjL	i remember i looked here a while ago and it looked like there was someone new and i was like "uh oh now i have to decide whether de-facto is discussing something constructive or arguing with someone who's just riling him up with anti-science idiocy" and so i decided to go do something else	00:51
LjL	that's what i recall anyway!	00:51
nixonix	you are apatized about all those lockdowns	00:51
nixonix	is that a word?	00:52
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Brazil sets new single-day record with over 115,000 coronavirus cases → https://is.gd/rTrJBa	00:52
LjL	nixonix, no, but i understood, so it's okay	00:52
nixonix	apathized prob	00:52
LjL	i am a bit tired of COVID in general but... that's probably everyone?	00:53
nixonix	that one is a word, its found in urban dictionary	00:53
LjL	i either find something to annoy me with vaccines, or some scary things like brains shrinking after COVID	00:53
LjL	nixonix, it probably even works in greek where apathy originally comes from, the -ize ending is very greek	00:53
nixonix	if you see palasso, ask him and tell me then	00:54
nixonix	they used to read latin and greek. almost nobody read those anymore	00:55
LjL	nixonix, if only the ancient greek wisdom had taught him that Libera > freenode!	00:56
nixonix	it now looks like immunity from those common cold betacoronaviruses offer some protection vs sars2	01:07
nixonix	long time ago you wondered if we should try to catch them. i thought it wouldnt be a good idea, because there was no proof it would protect, they can be dangerous as eg OC43 is neuroinvasive, and there might even be harmfull interference	01:08
nixonix	but now it looks like it would be protective, if its from OC43 or HK1. reduced symptoms in some study	01:09
nixonix	but there was no link from those common cold alphacoronaviruses	01:09
nixonix	i would link the paper, but i dont remember the title. i will when i find it some day	01:10
nixonix	also rhinoviruses beat sars2 in competition about infecting cell culture. even when its inoculated a day later with rhino	01:12
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: They relied on Chinese COVID vaccines. Now they’re battling outbreaks. → https://is.gd/ym28YP	01:12
nixonix	so in theory, those that are exposed to sars2 infection, could be inoculated with some rhinovirus strain, if done quick enough	01:13
de-facto	but why?	01:14
de-facto	arent there more harmless ways to stimulate innate immunity?	01:14
nixonix	works with flu too:	01:15
nixonix	.title https://www.clinicalmicrobiologyandinfection.com/article/S1198-743X(14)63294-8/fulltext	01:15
Brainstorm	nixonix: From www.clinicalmicrobiologyandinfection.com: Rhinoviruses delayed the circulation of the pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus in France - Clinical Microbiology and Infection	01:15
nixonix	no, its just that it somehow beats them in competition of infecting cells. rhino vs sars2 or rhino vs flu	01:15
de-facto	hmm	01:16
de-facto	what about rhinovirus infection already present in the nose hence having activated the local immune responses (hence causing a cold)	01:17
nixonix	you might then be immune to sars2 while it lasts	01:17
nixonix	but im not sure you could say its the activated immune response, because it beats sars2 even when inoculated day later	01:18
nixonix	its something else	01:18
de-facto	hence increased number of immune cells active in fighting against the rhinovirus in the mucus, so if few other viruses (influenza etc) come on that mucus they directly get attacked by the increased and alarmed number of immune cells already present there?	01:18
de-facto	(complete speculation)	01:18
nixonix	maybe its the cell signalling environment that rhino infection causes somehow, that is beneficial for rhinovirus but not for sars2	01:20
de-facto	afaik sars-cov-2 got some abilities to circumvent activation or even sabotage/suppress innate immune responses, so if something else activates them that even replicates faster maybe the innate immunity already is activated then hence killing off much more sars-cov-2 compared to if it was not activated by a cofactor like rhino	01:21
Brainstorm	New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Epstein-Barr virus reactivation may be the cause of long COVID symptoms → https://is.gd/BE3UMc	01:22
nixonix	idk. but thats interesting enough, ill try to find something about it some day	01:24
nixonix	i dont have logs with this web client, but if somebody could find what i pasted about adenovirus and herpes, i think 2 days ago, please repaste	01:26
nixonix	it seems almost everybody has EBV	01:26
nixonix	damn, did i need to know that too?	01:27
Brainstorm	New from ScienceNews: The benefits of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines outweigh the risk of rare heart inflammation: A CDC group says the benefits of the Pfizer and Moderna shots outweigh the risk of myocarditis and pericarditis in adolescents and young adults. → https://is.gd/5l71Aj	01:32
LjL	nixonix, i'm afraid it's true, the vast majority of people have HSV, EBV, and HPV	01:33
LjL	varies a bit depending on the locale	01:34
LjL	you posted	01:34
LjL	<nixonix> adenoviruses can infect the cells of the respiratory tract, while herpes viruses can infect those of the skin and nervous system. In most cases, this does not lead to the production of new virus particles, as the viruses are suppressed by the immune system	01:34
LjL	<nixonix> However, adenoviruses and herpes viruses can cause persistent infections that the immune system is unable to completely suppress and that produce viral particles for years	01:35
LjL	not sure if that's what you meant, i responded that herpes definitely stays in the nerve ganglia, while i didn't know adenovirus stayed around, and maybe they only do in immune compromised people or something	01:35
nixonix	thanks. could you post the link also, that i think i pasted below those? i tried to find it. logs were so useful, maybe i sould start using real client again...	01:41
nixonix	+h	01:41
de-facto	nixonix, https://is.gd/xpld3l	01:42
nixonix	thanks. i forgot there are those	01:43
de-facto	2021-06-22	01:43
nixonix	anyways, the easiest way is to just google a part of quote, which usually works	01:45
nixonix	it was from this	01:45
nixonix	.title https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/06/210621123733.htm	01:45
Brainstorm	nixonix: From www.sciencedaily.com: Microscopy deep learning predicts viral infections -- ScienceDaily	01:45
nixonix	makes you wonder if sars2 could stay around in some type of cells	01:49
nixonix	like that they are not antigen expressing cells, and they are not activated to produce more virions for one or another reason	01:50
nixonix	like nerve cells but perhaps in some other type of cells too	01:50
LjL	nixonix, there was at least one paper on SARS2 staying inside gut cells	02:01
LjL	if i'm lucky i might find it too	02:01
LjL	nixonix, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03207-w	02:02
LjL	"Immunofluorescence and PCR analyses of intestinal biopsies obtained from asymptomatic individuals at 4 months after the onset of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) revealed the persistence of SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acids and immunoreactivity in the small bowel of 7 out of 14 individuals. We conclude that the memory B cell response to SARS-CoV-2 evolves between 1.3 and 6.2 months after infection in a manner that is consistent with antigen persistence."	02:02
nixonix	oh yeah, there was that. i havent really looked much at that, staying in intestines. which i need to fix	02:07
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Recent Commits to links:master: Correct typo, add "gut" mainly to ease searching later ( https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/64293f034b206bf7879b7d3d5d5f66393826b1ad )		02:08
LjL	nixonix, i guess it kinda falls into the "did i really need to know that" category for me	02:10
LjL	it's a delicate balance between the power of knowledge and the terror of knowledge	02:10
nixonix	all the accumulating knowled will take things to better	02:11
nixonix	id like to believe that. not sure if i succeed to do	02:12
nixonix	..ledge	02:12
Brainstorm	New from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Correct typo, add "gut" mainly to ease searching later → https://is.gd/UObDMb	02:14
nixonix	that could help with somatic mutations in those plasma cells that stay decades in bone marrow. so maybe its a good thing	02:15
nixonix	maybe it happens only in germinal center though	02:17
nixonix	centers	02:17
LjL	<de-facto> but why is myocarditis mainly after 2nd dose in young men? <nixonix> well, those side effects come mostly from 2nd dose too ← did you see the slightly pirated italian article i posted handwaving that further mRNA doses might not be a good idea because side effects may get worse and we may have to use protein subunits for the next vaccines?	02:23
LjL	[19:37:57] <LjL> https://paste.ee/r/qu8h3/0	02:23
LjL	[19:38:25] <LjL> it basically says that there are indications that mRNA vaccines may not be sustenable in the long run (i.e. if we need a third, fourth, n+1th dose)	02:23
LjL	[19:39:22] <LjL> because 1) we've already seen that the second dose cause more adverse reactions than the first, unlike other vaccines (like AZ), and so they extrapolate it to further doses, and 2) we also can extrapolate it to further doses because there are studies about it (unfortunately it doesn't mention which, but i assume earlier animal studies, it does mention a Margaret Liu as someone with this stance)	02:23
LjL	[19:40:01] <LjL> the conclusion is that unless we manage to make sure with good trials that we can in fact continue using mRNA doses indefinitely, we may want to look at things like Novavax instead for the next doses	02:23
LjL	Timvde, (sorry i hadn't seen your replies) i'd like to see the studies too, and it's annoying that this type of articles, even when they're written by supposed experts, don't _cite the damned studies_ just because they are in a general newspaper	02:24
LjL	it "hints" at the existence of such studies	02:24
LjL	not clear if repeated mRNA doses on animals, or what	02:25
nixonix	if its the immune response, that could be adjusted for harm/benefit, and wouldnt anyways to be unnecessarily strong with later boosters. but adjusting meaning the cytokine profile, so that the immune response would be type that is better optimized to lessen the adverse effects	02:26
nixonix	+have	02:27
nixonix	anyways we already have some evidence that whole virus vaccines arent necessarily effective. for protein subunits, it looks like they can be. but i wouldnt count on that even most of them will be	02:28
nixonix	novavax looks good, tho	02:29
Brainstorm	New from BBC Health: (news): Long Covid: More than two million in England may be suffering, study suggests → https://is.gd/FO8xIv	02:34
nixonix	but if theres inherent attribute of rna always causing more and more severe adverse reactions when repeted, then thats another thing. but is there. there was somebody who thought there is in that article	02:39
nixonix	lets find out, another day	02:39
Brainstorm	Updates for Fiji: +279 cases (now 2549), +2 deaths (now 11) since a day ago — France: +33 deaths (now 110926) since 21 hours ago — Canada: +609 cases (now 1.4 million), +14 deaths (now 26153) since 22 hours ago — Netherlands: +341 cases (now 1.7 million), +2 deaths (now 17871) since 21 hours ago	02:40
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: China deleted early coronavirus data that could help explain pandemic origins, researcher finds → https://is.gd/19Yt57	03:15
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bluesclues	the delta variant is going up in numbers	03:48
bluesclues	wear your masks if you can please	03:48
Raf[m]	Even if you're vaccinated?	03:49
thanas	is pfizer vaccine effective against delta variant?	03:52
bluesclues	thats a good question but i dont think so	03:53
bluesclues	they need to find someway to come up with something	03:53
bluesclues	its not over yet	03:53
Brainstorm	New from Politico: How ambassadors took over the EU: Inside the ‘engine room’ that kept the European Union running through the pandemic — and gained power as a result. → https://is.gd/OjdJpv	04:07
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LjL	thanas, bluesclues: it's been found to be effective. not as effective as with the alpha variant, but iirc 75% efficacy in a study	04:50
LjL	which would put it up there with AstraZeneca on the original variant, so it's far from "not effective"	04:50
LjL	actually no, the 75% was against B.1.351 (South African variant), although that's been the nastiest variant in terms of vaccine efficacy so far	04:52
LjL	current British reports have both Pfizer and AZ as fairly efficacious at least against hospitalization with the Delta variant	04:52
LjL	i really should update the links with some info about the Indian/Delta variant because there really is almost none :(	04:53
LjL	https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant	04:54
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Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: With 1.15 lakh fresh cases, Brazil sets single-day record for coronavirus infections → https://is.gd/4vx8Ng	05:29
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Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: WHO finds problems at Russian vaccine plant; flags data, testing results → https://is.gd/Pi4V5U	05:40
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express (Health): Health: Post-Covid hair fall: Expert suggests ways to tackle the problem → https://is.gd/2rsKWa	05:50
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: FDA to add warning about rare heart inflammation to Pfizer, Moderna vaccines → https://is.gd/O7cYpi	06:01
Brainstorm	New from EurekAlert!: Better mental health supports for nurses needed, study finds: Working in the highly charged environment of COVID-19 has had a huge impact on the mental health of nurses, according to a new survey by researchers at the University of British Columbia and the Institute for Work & Health in Toronto.The findings, described recently in [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/W4ocyt	06:32
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Brainstorm	New from EurekAlert!: COVID-19 monoclonal antibody therapy can reduce hospitalizations, healthcare system stress: Monoclonal antibodies work well in reducing COVID-19 related emergency department visits and hospitalizations when administered early to high-risk patients, a study by the University of South Florida Health (USF Health) and Tampa General [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/o4i1q9	06:52
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Brainstorm	New from BMJ: What I never consented to: I have a complex medical history and have experienced many tests, procedures, and surgeries. Over the years, I have consented to seemingly endless risks that came with these procedures, including... → https://is.gd/4L2EOA	11:52
Brainstorm	New from BMJ: Correction: In the article ‘Interpreting a lateral flow SARS-CoV-2 antigen test’ (BMJ 2021;373:n1411 doi:10.1136/bmj.n1411) the authors state that “Evidence shows a strong correlation between Ct values and in... → https://is.gd/UC744J	12:23
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express (Health): Health: You’re vaccinated for COVID-19, and you just tested positive. Now what? → https://is.gd/PpRLkW	13:35
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Brainstorm	New from ECDC: Data on testing for COVID-19 by week and country: The downloadable data file contains information about testing volume for COVID-19 by week and country. Each row contains the corresponding data for a country and a week. The file is updated weekly. You may use the data in line with ECDC’s copyright policy. → https://is.gd/1QzArh	13:46
Brainstorm	New from The Atlantic: The New Best Vaccine for COVID-19: At the end of January, reports that yet another COVID-19 vaccine had succeeded in its clinical trials—this one offering about 70 percent protection—were front-page news in the United States, and occasioned push alerts on millions of phones. But when the Maryland-based biotech firm Novavax [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/zirxHH	14:16
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Brainstorm	New from ECDC: Data on hospital and ICU admission rates and current occupancy for COVID-19: The downloadable data files contain information about hospitalisation and Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission rates and current occupancy for COVID-19 by date and country. Each row contains the corresponding data for a certain date (day or week) and per country. [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/PGEWAF	14:47
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Comunicato stampa del Consiglio dei Ministri n. 25 ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/comunicato-stampa-del-consiglio-dei-ministri-n-25/17251 )		14:51
Brainstorm	New from NIH Director's blog: New Metric Identifies Coronavirus Hotspots in Real Time: During the pandemic, it’s been critical to track in real time where the coronavirus is spreading at home and abroad. But it’s often hard for public health officials to know whether changes in the reported number of COVID-19 cases over time truly reflect the [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/kd9SOS	15:08
Brainstorm	New from EMA: What's new: PIP: Opinion/decision on a Paediatric investigation plan (PIP): half-life extended bispecific T-cell engager (BiTE) antibody construct that binds to prostate-specific membrane antigen and cluster of differentiation 3, with a single chain fragment crystallizable moiety, decision type: , therapeutic area: , PIP number: P/0303/2020 → https://is.gd/RYk6y1	15:50
Brainstorm	Updates for Zambia: +3594 cases (now 140620), +61 deaths (now 1855) since a day ago	16:07
Brainstorm	Updates for Nepal: +1577 cases (now 629431), +24 deaths (now 8918) since a day ago	16:32
Krey[m]	Where is the CDC emergency meeting aAAaAaaAAaAAAaAAAAAAAAAAAA	16:57
Brainstorm	New from In The Pipeline: Open the Floodgates: It should be obvious, given previous posts here, that I think that the FDA approval of Biogen’s aducanumab for Alzheimer’s was a mistake. It is a mistake for a whole list of reasons, and we’re about to see another one of those in action. Eli Lilly has been attacking Alzheimer’s for decades now, in [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/NlzBXJ	17:03
Brainstorm	New from LitCovid: (news): COVID 19 pandemic: Economics and future of oral care. → https://is.gd/q8xuxP	17:23
Brainstorm	Updates for Germany: +649 cases (now 3.7 million), +43 deaths (now 90916) since 21 hours ago — Canada: +12 deaths (now 26155) since 21 hours ago	17:34
Brainstorm	New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Study of Arrhythmia and ECG Abnormalities in Patients With COVID-19 → https://is.gd/xqmVkN	17:44
Brainstorm	Updates for United Kingdom: +16702 cases (now 4.7 million) since 23 hours ago	17:59
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express (Health): Health: 72-year-old British man recovers after testing Covid positive for 10 months → https://is.gd/unyviK	18:15
chitCat	Krey[m]: emergency?	18:16
Krey[m]	yesh about the heart inflammation in <30	18:16
Krey[m]	chitCat: ^	18:16
chitCat	Krey[m]: missed it, what makes it an emergency	18:21
Krey[m]	afaik it's associated with a report from israel with 300 people having heart inflammation after Pfizer/biontech vaccine	18:21
* Krey[m] cancelled his vaccine bcs of it		18:21
Krey[m]	chitCat: you know it's that kind of "emergency" that can wait for the next week 💢	18:25
chitCat	you do then, seemed concerned	18:26
Krey[m]	ah 800 cases now?	18:28
Krey[m]	and the meeting was moved or something again?	18:32
Krey[m]	grr the incompetence in this!	18:32
Arsanerit	Approximately 62½ hours until I get my second dose of Comirnaty® (developed and produced by BioNTech).	18:35
Juerd	Hi Arsanerit	18:36
Brainstorm	Updates for Myanmar: +787 cases (now 150714), +6 deaths (now 3275) since 20 hours ago	18:37
Juerd	Arsanerit: Isn't it developed by Biontech, produced by Pfizer?	18:37
Arsanerit	Hi Juerd. Long time no "see". No, the vaccines distributed here in Germany are produced by BioNTech themselves, mostly at their site in Marburg.	18:39
Juerd	Ah	18:40
Arsanerit	Juerd: How are you?	18:40
Juerd	Arsanerit: This is a publicly logged channel so I won't go into any personal things :)	18:40
Arsanerit	Juerd: Fair enough.	18:40
chitCat	Krey[m]: chemotherapy also is known to have risks, if thats not a bad example	18:48
Krey[m]	chitCat: yes, but the risks are known with a risk factors	18:51
Brainstorm	Updates for Portugal: +1556 cases (now 869879), +2 deaths (now 17079) since a day ago	19:01
LjL	did i hear right 16k new cases in the UK today?	19:36
LjL	%cases UK	19:36
Brainstorm	LjL: In United Kingdom, there have been 4.7 million confirmed cases (7.1% of the population) and 128159 deaths (2.7% of cases) as of an hour ago. 206.0 million tests were performed (2.3% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data.	19:36
Brainstorm	New from Scientific American: Health: Gut Reactions: Microbes in the Digestive Tract Influence COVID Severity → https://is.gd/TwvUgx	19:38
Brainstorm	Updates for Germany: +673 cases (now 3.7 million) since 22 hours ago	19:39
LjL	what is up with the British numbers, 17k today, 16k yesterday, a sudden jump	19:41
LjL	also is there anywhere we can clearly see graphs and percentages of how many of the cases are vaccinated, and with which vaccine?	19:42
LjL	i know there are government reports on vaccination efficacy on hospitalizations, but that's just one thing	19:42
Brainstorm	New from StatNews: Pharma: STAT+: Pfizer halts global distribution of smoking cessation pill as it tests for potential carcinogens → https://is.gd/JgDvVL	19:48
Brainstorm	New from Reddit (test): nCoV: Indian "Delta" mutated strain, 60% more dangerous than UK "Alpha" (Samoud) \| 24JUN21 → https://is.gd/X09xOa	20:40
Brainstorm	Updates for Israel: +123 cases (now 840430) since 9 hours ago	20:41
francis	LjL: apparently the spike is due to surge testing in scotland which has also had record case numbers today and yesterday	20:42
francis	not entirely convinced it's all scotland's fault tho	20:42
Brainstorm	New from Scientific American: Nutrition, Immunity and a Global Pandemic: The COVID-19 pandemic has focused attention on the importance of having a well-functioning immune system. -- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com → https://is.gd/ULxkF1	20:51
de-facto	just made a fit of both B.1.1.7 and B.1.617.2 in Germany, R(B.1.1.7) ~ 0.9 and R(B.1.617.2) ~ 1.3 meaning +44.4% and the sum of both exponentials got a mimimum at 2021-07-04	21:01
de-facto	meaning B.1.617.2 will lead to raising incidence from 4th of July in Germany if conditions stay unchanged	21:01
de-facto	so i assume begin to mid of July is a realistic estimation for that unfortunately	21:02
Brainstorm	New from CIDRAP: COVID-19 Scan for Jun 24, 2021: COVID vaccine and household risk Skin reactions and COVID vaccines → https://is.gd/xji6U2	21:21
de-facto	.title https://imgur.com/a/ToWETLU https://i.imgur.com/7nEfEq9.png src tab 5 in https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/DESH/Bericht_VOC_2021-06-23.pdf?__blob=publicationFile	21:28
Brainstorm	de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID Germany: Evolution of PANGO Lineages B.1.1.7 vs B.1.617.2 - Album on Imgur	21:28
Brainstorm	Updates for Cuba: +1880 cases (now 174789), +16 deaths (now 1209) since a day ago — Spain: +4507 cases (now 3.8 million), +18 deaths (now 80766) since a day ago — France: +18 deaths (now 110944) since 18 hours ago	21:31
de-facto	50/50 incidence crossover point would be 2021-07-13	21:59
Arsanerit	that's the way I was considering to depart on vacation	22:09
Arsanerit	*the day	22:10
LjL	de-facto, what is the percentage of Delta now?	22:21
de-facto	i think something like 15.1%	22:22
de-facto	yeah week 23 in another table	22:24
de-facto	the fit i made were lab data because they provide absolute weekly numbers, but that 15.1% is the RKI data themselves afaik	22:25
de-facto	so there might be a different delay involved	22:25
de-facto	hence i said begin to mid of July	22:25
LjL	francis, yeah i've heard that from others too, but excuse my ignorance, what is even surge testing to begin with?	22:32
Brainstorm	Updates for Mozambique: +441 cases (now 73652), +6 deaths (now 863) since a day ago — Jersey: +22 cases (now 3361) since a day ago	22:33
Brainstorm	New from WebMD: Lost Sense of Smell Returns for Almost All After COVID: A new study finds a year on, nearly all patients who lost their sense of smell after a bout of COVID-19 did regain that ability. → https://is.gd/1BQ5Sr	22:33
qunzhong_luxian	What I find to be interesting is that the loss of smell has not been as prominent of a symptom of the delta variant. In the UK it dropped out of the top 10 symptoms. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57467051	22:35
francis	LjL: surge testing basically means that, whenever a cluster of infections is detected, people in that area (post code, borough, village etc) are all encouraged to get a test so they can self-isolate if they're positive	22:35
LjL	francis, makes sense, but they must have found some big clusters to justify the surge... although someone was telling me it's pretty predictably exponential based on https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E4qAK7gXMAYP_y_.png but this doesn't make it very clear which date it reaches	22:40
LjL	qunzhong_luxian, that could be good news in a way (except apparently Delta results in more hospitalizations) because there was a recent paper floating around showing loss of brain mass in COVID patients, in particular of the areas of the brain linked to smell and taste, which is pretty creepy if you ask me, so any hint that the new variant may cause less of that is good news	22:41
LjL	on the other hand it was a very recognizable and somewhat unique symptom, while that BBC article says that in general, aside from the severe cases, the variant may spread more because people feel less sick...	22:41
qunzhong_luxian	Ooh, that actually is a pretty nice angle that I had not thought of before, but yeah I do share the concerns from the BBC article with the lack of distinctive symptom making people less likely to quarantine and such if it just feels like a head cold.	22:42
de-facto	that looks pretty much like the features of the curve i extrapolated for Germany too LjL	22:42
francis	LjL: it depends, surge testing has been going on here for quite a while now	22:52
francis	the gov't are more than willing to chuck money/tests at an area to clamp down on the case numbers so they don't have to keep delaying The Grand Unlocking after promising it'll really happen on date X/Y	22:52
francis	that graph looks eerily familiar, too :(	22:53
LjL	francis, i don't disagree with that approach, even though i might disagree with the reason behind it...	22:53
francis	aye	22:53
francis	bad to reword once or twice in this exchange so I don't get, er, political ;D	22:53
francis	had to, even	22:54
Brainstorm	New from CIDRAP: Delta COVID variant fuels global surges, complicates reopenings: Lisa Schnirring \| News Editor \| CIDRAP News Jun 24, 2021 Twelve African nations battle surges, and Brazil records a daily high in COVID-19 cases. → https://is.gd/Fs2KGC	23:05
de-facto	.title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.10.21258647v1.full-text	23:10
Brainstorm	de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Seasonal variation in SARS-CoV-2 transmission in temperate climates \| medRxiv	23:10
de-facto	"Building on two state-of-the-art observational models and datasets, we adapt a fully Bayesian method for estimating the association between seasonality and transmission in 143 temperate European regions. We find strong seasonal patterns, consistent with a reduction in the time-variable Rt of 42.1% (95% CI: 24.7% – 53.4%) from the peak of winter to the peak of summer."	23:17
Brainstorm	Updates for Canada: +777 cases (now 1.4 million), +18 deaths (now 26170) since 23 hours ago	23:41
LjL	de-facto, strong, but then just one variant compared to the other adds 0.7 to the R...	23:42
LjL	my pessimism just says that's a good reason to be wary of next winter even if it seems now the vaccines are "taking care of it" (the vaccines, or the summer?)	23:43
de-facto	so with minimum of seasonality factor in July it will be both, Delta and seasonality that will cause increase	23:43
LjL	de-facto, what do you mean? Delta will cause increase, but July is at minimum	23:45
de-facto	delta is approximately +45% over alpha and if that above is correct its another +42% till winter at least, meaning almost double the reproduction we have right now with alpha in the summer	23:45
de-facto	two distinct effects, contribution from generic seasonality and the other from delta taking over alpha	23:45
LjL	yes but the seasonality makes it lower	23:46
LjL	so i don't understand why you say they will both case an increase	23:46
LjL	July 1 is the minimum	23:46
de-facto	yes so from july 1st it will start to increase	23:46
de-facto	from minimum to maximum in the winter	23:46
LjL	yeah okay but the Delta effect will probably happen much faster, while seasonality is still at less than 1 multiplier	23:47
de-facto	yes of course	23:48
de-facto	i just meant we will have contributions from both in the same direction, more reproduction	23:48
de-facto	Delta already got R~1.3 in both UK and Germany right now	23:49
Krey[m]	SINCE WHEN ARE THERE TONADOS IN CZECHIA	23:53
LjL	de-facto, i was shown that in the UK, people 20-24 are now leading the infections, but children 5-9 are the ones most on the rise	23:53
Krey[m]	aaAAAaAaaAAaAAAA	23:53
LjL	Krey[m], since always, tornadoes happen Europe, not as often as in the Tornadoey places in the US, but they still happen	23:53
Krey[m]	never in 40 years	23:53
Krey[m]	and strongest recorded	23:54
Krey[m]	(in czechia)	23:54
LjL	Tornadoes in Czech Republic 9 June 2004 Czech Republic 2 No known injuries or fatalities There were 2 Tornadoes in Czech Republic, first was probably F1, second was F3. First appeared at Seninka at 14:15 UTC, The second and stronger, appeared only 15 minutes after the first one and it was at Litovel.	23:54
LjL	but okay, they weren't a strong as this one, probalby	23:55
Krey[m]	source?	23:55
LjL	https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_tornadoes_and_tornado_outbreaks	23:55
LjL	just ctrl+f czech	23:55
Krey[m]	dunno about it.. we have strong storms that people call tornados very often.. not 100+ injured 8 killed, buildings destroyed and cars flying in the air kind of tornado	23:56
Krey[m]	and my hugging garden is hugged 💢	23:57
Krey[m]	*at least 8 dead	23:57

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