| LjL | de-facto, they just said here on TV that some 10 countries that have used Sinovac and Sinopharm (both inactivated) are among the countries with the most new cases and the most hospitalizations | 00:22 |
|---|---|---|
| LjL | they said it's probably because these vaccines aren't great against variants and they also said that Sputnik as well doesn't guarantee much against Delta | 00:22 |
| LjL | but isn't that counterintuitive? | 00:22 |
| LjL | inactivated vaccines should be able to have an "all-around" efficacy on the virus even if the S-protein changes a bit | 00:23 |
| LjL | and why is Sputnik any different from AZ or J&J | 00:23 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +109 cases (now 702507), +2 deaths (now 10882) since 9 hours ago | 00:32 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for India: +434 deaths (now 393310) since 16 hours ago | 01:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from FDA Press Releases: FDA: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: June 25, 2021 → https://is.gd/OhUeYc | 01:55 |
| Timvde | LjL: vaccine effectivenes against hospitalisation is higher for the delta variant even, according to your last image? | 02:02 |
| LjL | Timvde, it's a bit strange isn't it? | 02:02 |
| LjL | Timvde, but i guess it could be explained by the fact that Delta leads to more hospitalizations than Alpha in unvaccinated people (that's nearly certain by now, unfortunately), but maybe in vaccinated people they become similar again | 02:03 |
| Timvde | That, or the delta variant leads to more breakthrough infections, but not much more hospitalisations, so the total number compared against is higher | 02:04 |
| Timvde | But we would need raw numbers to get to a conclusion, not just percentages | 02:04 |
| de-facto | LjL, i dont know that, i just have seen that Sputnik was doing big PR tamtam about being able to take delta into account, what i did not really understood (since they actually provided ZERO real info) was if they are working on an update, or if they were blabering about a third update shot with the original | 02:08 |
| de-facto | i guess their twitter account is not run by people who know such things | 02:09 |
| LjL | Sputkin has been good at PR for sure | 02:10 |
| LjL | i don't think they're necessarily above a bit of bullshitting if they think it helps them | 02:10 |
| de-facto | until i see some data in form of a trial i assume Sputnik is just like all the other vaccines with Wuhan spike | 02:10 |
| LjL | Timvde, agreed about numbers but when i talk to that particular person it's like a surgical extraction to know where he's getting data from exactly | 02:11 |
| de-facto | i dont say they lied or anything like that, to me its just completely unclear what they actually are talking about when referring to efficacy against delta | 02:11 |
| LjL | "the internet" was the answer last time i wanted to know where he was getting the tweets he commented on ;( | 02:11 |
| de-facto | but heh maybe that is just stupid old me :P | 02:11 |
| de-facto | i do hope Sputnik in its current form is somewhat efficant against Delta given the Moscow spike | 02:13 |
| Timvde | de-facto: isn't the vaccination rate in Russia very low? | 02:14 |
| Timvde | They're at 14% according to Our World in Data | 02:15 |
| de-facto | yes i have seen that too | 02:15 |
| de-facto | means not even their risk groups are vaccinated fully yet | 02:16 |
| de-facto | less than India even | 02:16 |
| de-facto | https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations | 02:16 |
| de-facto | since begin of June the cases in Russia seem to be on steep rise | 02:18 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.22.21257658v1 | 02:22 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against the B.1.617.2 variant | medRxiv | 02:22 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext | 02:22 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.thelancet.com: SARS-CoV-2 Delta VOC in Scotland: demographics, risk of hospital admission, and vaccine effectiveness - The Lancet | 02:22 |
| Timvde | I wonder if J&J will at some point revise their strategy and suggest taking a second dose anyway | 02:26 |
| de-facto | from first paper | 02:26 |
| de-facto | "Effectiveness was notably lower after 1 dose of vaccine with B.1.617.2 cases 33.5% (95%CI: 20.6 to 44.3) compared to B.1.1.7 cases 51.1% (95%CI: 47.3 to 54.7) with similar results for both vaccines. " | 02:26 |
| de-facto | "With BNT162b2 2 dose effectiveness reduced from 93.4% (95%CI: 90.4 to 95.5) with B.1.1.7 to 87.9% (95%CI: 78.2 to 93.2) with B.1.617.2. With ChAdOx1 2 dose effectiveness reduced from 66.1% (95% CI: 54.0 to 75.0) with B.1.1.7 to 59.8% (95%CI: 28.9 to 77.3) with B.1.617.2." | 02:26 |
| de-facto | "Sequenced cases detected after 1 or 2 doses of vaccination had a higher odds of infection with B.1.617.2 compared to unvaccinated cases (OR 1.40; 95%CI: 1.13-1.75)." | 02:27 |
| de-facto | from second paper | 02:28 |
| de-facto | "The Cox regression analysis for time to hospital admission found that S gene-positive cases were associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 hospital admission: hazard ratio (HR) 1·85 (95% CI 1·39–2·47) when compared to S gene-negative cases, after adjusting for age, sex, deprivation, temporal trend, and comorbidities." | 02:28 |
| de-facto | so apparently delta is worse than alpha in every aspect | 02:30 |
| Timvde | Yea, that's not surprising | 02:31 |
| Timvde | The question is: should we be worried even when we have decent vaccination coverage? | 02:31 |
| de-facto | but yeah that was to be expected since the pathogen optimized itself for being more infectious and reproductive (on cellular level) | 02:32 |
| de-facto | yes of course, there is only ONE metric: incidence | 02:32 |
| de-facto | the hope would be that vaccinations not only lower the ratio between infections and severe progressions, but also lower epidemiological reproduction by 1) decreasing infection risk 2) decreasing viral shedding 3) decreasing duration of infectiousness | 02:33 |
| de-facto | Timvde, i am pretty sure that vaccinations alone are not able to control delta in a naive and unaware population, rates must go way over 95% vaccinated for achieving endemic (R=1), that simply is not realistic | 02:35 |
| Timvde | 95% is crazy high indeed, wtf? | 02:35 |
| de-facto | hence vaccinations only can be seen as one additional tool that helps with maintaining ontrol | 02:35 |
| Timvde | We may reach 90+ for the adult population here, but with all the minors who aren't getting a vaccine, it's pretty much impossible to get that high | 02:36 |
| Timvde | de-facto: but people won't accept other measures for much longer | 02:37 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Palestine: +505 cases (now 313520), +1 deaths (now 3556) since 2 days ago — France: +19 deaths (now 110983) since 21 hours ago — Netherlands: +346 cases (now 1.7 million), +3 deaths (now 17876) since 21 hours ago — United Kingdom: +11825 cases (now 4.7 million), +14 deaths (now 128189) since 21 hours ago | 02:37 |
| de-facto | Timvde, assuming Rt = R0 (1 - v e) == 1 (endemic) we would need to vaccinate v = (R0 - Rt) / ( e R0 ) part of the population when everything is averaged and the vaccine would have an efficacy of preventing transmission of e | 02:37 |
| de-facto | so putting in numbers v = (R0 -Rt) / ( e R0 ) = ( 6 - 1 ) / ( 0.88 6) = 0.9469 | 02:39 |
| de-facto | but that is even unrealistic the efficacy against symptomatic endpoints with B.1.617.2 is 0.879 according to above paper with two shots of BNT162b2, hence efficacy against transmission is even lower (as there is such quite common thing like asymptomatic transmission) | 02:41 |
| LjL | Timvde, minors (12 and above) are getting vaccinated here | 02:41 |
| LjL | but yeah 95% seems unrealistic | 02:42 |
| LjL | that's kinda why we need vaccines that are a bit better than 60% | 02:42 |
| de-facto | does not matter anyhow, the conclusion is: vaccinations can help with controlling B.1.617.2 but they cant keep its reproduction dynamics under control by themselves (alone), we always need additional measures | 02:42 |
| LjL | such as for example not AZ or J&J ;( | 02:42 |
| Timvde | LjL: Only patients at risk here | 02:42 |
| LjL | de-facto, my friend of few words insists that the most important metric is hospitalization and death, if we just manage to make this stop being a healthcare emergency, everything will be good or something | 02:43 |
| LjL | except that i bet your immediate objection will be that we'll still be breeding variants | 02:43 |
| de-facto | yes that is the obvious one | 02:43 |
| LjL | Timvde, well, that may change soon as you get more vaccines. the EU is all getting the same amounts anyway | 02:43 |
| Timvde | LjL: we'd be breeding variants at a much lower rate, though | 02:44 |
| LjL | but de-facto what can we do? maybe you can accept living a life of perennial social distancing, masks, quarantine after flights... but seriously, you are in the minority | 02:44 |
| Timvde | LjL: I think they may be aiming to send more vaccines to COVAX | 02:44 |
| de-facto | but also: reproduction dynamics become more difficult to control the wider the prevalence is spread: even if hospitalizations are not a problem (yet) if we allow hundreds of thousands of infections per day and have an exponential runaway also the hospitalizations will run away exponentially (hence reach a threshold at some point) | 02:45 |
| LjL | Timvde, not necessarily *much* lower imo, if the vaccine only has something resembling 50% or 60% efficacy, even if the efficacy against severe forms is better... it means the pathogen has a fighting chance to mutate against the vaccine (it reproduces, it makes you sick, it doesn't make you dead or needing oxygen, but it can play with its own genes in the meanwhile to see what works best) | 02:45 |
| de-facto | but then we got a gigantic incidence to control (not even to begin to speak of that in the middle of all of that a new variant could emerge and make hospitalizations skyrocket very fast) | 02:46 |
| LjL | well what's your suggestion, apart from things that realistically people won't do | 02:46 |
| LjL | my suggestion is, develop a variant-enhanced mRNA vaccine very fast, forget about adenoviruses, and deploy the new vaccine asap | 02:46 |
| LjL | if it's true that by now we know what the key mutations are / are gonna be, just make this mRNA vaccine | 02:47 |
| de-facto | vaccinations as fast as possible everywhere, contact reduction enforced to keep R<1 at all costs (absolutely no compromises with that one), and yeah you know me: no traveling. | 02:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: WHO urges fully vaccinated people to continue to wear masks as delta Covid variant spreads → https://is.gd/KdPwVK | 02:47 |
| Win7ine | LjL I agree, mRNA is the only fast adaptable vaccine so far | 02:47 |
| Timvde | LjL: mRNA isn't magically super good either, see CureVac | 02:47 |
| Timvde | But it is likely that Pfizer or Moderna can quickly make an adapted mRNA vaccine that is highly efficient, yes | 02:48 |
| de-facto | LjL, yes we do need updated vaccines indeed, but there will be more and more variants | 02:48 |
| LjL | Timvde, true, but we know some mRNA vaccines that *are* pretty good, so we need to tweak them for variants | 02:48 |
| LjL | Timvde, well, that's where Pfizer disappoints me, because Moderna is already trialling such a vaccine, but Pfizer got a "good result" with 75% efficacy on Delta, so they're saying their third booster will just be the original vaccine | 02:48 |
| Timvde | Lol, literally today we stopped requiring people to wear masks here | 02:49 |
| LjL | and at the same time there is the possibility that we can't take too many mRNA vaccines before the side effects become too strong, so it would be nice to have one that is good for a long time and for many variants | 02:49 |
| LjL | Timvde, we're dropping it in Italy as well but only outdoors, still mandatory indoors | 02:49 |
| de-facto | i think the problem CureVac had is that they did not use nucleoside modified mRNA but natural mRNA that induced a strong innate immune reaction so that the reactogenicity did not allow more than 12µg doses (otherwise side effects would have been too much) and therefore those 12µg did not produce enough antibody response to be effective enough | 02:49 |
| Timvde | It's still mandatory indoors in busy public places, but not at home | 02:50 |
| LjL | well i'd hope it's not mandatory at home :P | 02:50 |
| LjL | (how could that be enforced even if it were?) | 02:50 |
| Timvde | LjL: I mean, when people come over | 02:50 |
| LjL | well it's unenforceable anyway, so in practice it's just a recommendation | 02:50 |
| LjL | some people will still be worried and wear masks, and others won't | 02:50 |
| Timvde | We may invite up to 8 people at home at the same time starting from Sunday | 02:51 |
| de-facto | i hoped they would have more effective translation from mRNA to s-protein (more times translated, hence more s-protein molecules per one mRNA molecule) but obviously that did not compensate for their 12µg enough | 02:51 |
| LjL | and mostly it will be the same people as before | 02:51 |
| Win7ine | da-facto are you active in the reserach field? | 02:51 |
| LjL | Timvde, when they removed the mask mandate here last summer, i didn't really see a change in the amount of people who were wearing a mask | 02:51 |
| Timvde | I think many people do try to follow the recommendation | 02:51 |
| de-facto | Win7ine, nope | 02:51 |
| Timvde | I must say that I saw about 80% still wearing a mask today | 02:51 |
| Timvde | Not sure if that's because they're still being careful, or just don't know that the mandate was removed today | 02:51 |
| Timvde | (I'm in the first group, just being careful) | 02:52 |
| LjL | you'll see the new few days, but my guess is that you'll only see a moderate reduction | 02:52 |
| de-facto | btw a legitimate question to ask could be: with mRNA if booster got more side effects than primer, what is the actual cause of those increased side effects? would that increase even more with every shot of the same platform? would that also occur with protein based vaccine platforms ? | 02:52 |
| LjL | anyway good lord can we please have a winter not like last winter or the spring before that one | 02:52 |
| Win7ine | de-facto so how abaout the particulars you pick, is it regurgiating publication or self reflected? | 02:53 |
| Timvde | de-facto: I think that's still to be investigated | 02:53 |
| LjL | de-facto, those questions were raised in the italian article i linked a few days ago, you saw that? | 02:53 |
| de-facto | yes | 02:53 |
| LjL | Timvde, maybe you'd like to read this too, it's just a newspaper article but written by two presumed experts, it's an automatic translation but it's fairly understandable https://paste.ee/r/qu8h3/0 | 02:54 |
| de-facto | Win7ine, about CureVac? partly what i read in some articles (non-nucleoside modified mRNA, other promoter sequences etc), partly my thoughts (why would they not have gone the safe path and saturated their dose on the metric of side effects, when they would have to assume the virus will optimize?) | 02:55 |
| LjL | de-facto, i can see another reason for hoping a small dose will work: production capability | 02:55 |
| LjL | i assume CureVac's company isn't huge | 02:55 |
| Timvde | LjL: is that the same paste you sent earlier? | 02:55 |
| Timvde | Because I read that already | 02:56 |
| LjL | Timvde, i did send it earlier, yeah, wasn't sure if you'd seen that one, i remember nixonix saw it | 02:56 |
| LjL | i have some memory issues | 02:56 |
| Timvde | I may have nto confirmed that I've read it | 02:57 |
| LjL | well no issue anyway, i just quickly grep'd it back | 02:57 |
| de-facto | Timvde, i mean they surely thought about that when designing their vaccination platforms as they were advertising their fast update capabilities, so hopefully they tried to avoid including immunogenic epitope in either their LNP surfaces or their disassembly molecules and pathways (when those get trashed) | 02:57 |
| Timvde | de-facto: I fear tat you are getting to technical for me to really follow what you are saying | 02:58 |
| Timvde | (sorry for the typos, I'm getting kinda tired and I'm typing from an awkward position in bed, not a great combination :p) | 02:59 |
| de-facto | what i mean that i guess they have thought about how to avoid that the immune system reacts to the lipid nano particles that encapsulate the mRNA (to protect it against ribonuclease destruction and transport it into the cells) | 03:00 |
| LjL | Timvde, we all just nod and pretend to understand when he gets maths-y | 03:00 |
| LjL | except nixonix i guess | 03:00 |
| LjL | although i guess it's not mathsy in this case | 03:00 |
| de-facto | if they achieved that though, i guess we will see after more shots with the same platform | 03:00 |
| LjL | i'm just kidding | 03:00 |
| LjL | de-facto, is it possible they just didn't have access to the modRNA patent, and hoped it would just work anyway? | 03:01 |
| Timvde | de-facto: but given the stronger reactions on the seconde dose, did they succeed? | 03:01 |
| Timvde | Oh | 03:03 |
| Timvde | You said the same thing already :D | 03:03 |
| de-facto | it would have been a good experiment to encode a different vaccine antigen in the mRNA each time (to avoid adjuvant effect from the same antigen for the LNPs) and try to employ some metric for side effects with series of injections to see if some reactogenicity would build up against the platform itself (the common denominator between those different encoded antigens then) | 03:03 |
| Timvde | de-facto: "a different vaccine antigen" = getting your immune system to attack the virus in a different way? | 03:03 |
| LjL | de-facto, do you mean encoding something other than the S-protein? | 03:04 |
| de-facto | Timvde, if the stronger reactions after the 2nd dose is against the s-protein itself, yes they succeeded then, but what if it also would be against the lipid nano particles? or against the pseudo-uridine? | 03:04 |
| LjL | i think the S-protein is targeted because it's very likely that antibodies against it will be neutralizing antibodies... | 03:04 |
| de-facto | or other parts of the platform itself rather than the s-protein? | 03:05 |
| de-facto | i mean do we know the exact origin of the (increased booster) reactogenicity yet? i doubt we do know that yet | 03:05 |
| * de-facto has to go to sleep, has to got up in 6 hours again | 03:07 | |
| Timvde | I should go to sleep too, but mostly in order not to mess up my biorhythm too much :) | 03:07 |
| Timvde | Btw, we did have 12 deaths in a nursing home after an outbreak last week. All of them were fully vaccinated. | 03:12 |
| Timvde | (I *think* with the Pfizer vaccine, but I'm not 100% sure) | 03:13 |
| Win7ine | Timvde what is your location | 03:15 |
| Timvde | Belgium | 03:15 |
| de-facto | just had another idea for increased reactogenicity, maybe killer cells go berserk about the s-protein producing cells after booster (and update) shots much faster, hence they release the cellular interior into the plasma at much higher rates thereby producing higher concentrations of s-protein, mRNA, pseudo-uridine, lipids etc that cause reactogenicity | 03:16 |
| de-facto | just a crazy speculation though | 03:16 |
| Win7ine | Timvde do you know what strain caused death? | 03:16 |
| Timvde | de-facto: and again speculation that is above my level of understanding :) | 03:16 |
| Timvde | Win7ine: Do you mean which variant it was? | 03:16 |
| Win7ine | yep | 03:17 |
| Timvde | The article mentions both the Alfa and Delta variants, but points more specifically to the Delta variant as being dangerous, so I'd think that at least the majority of them was Delta | 03:18 |
| Timvde | It doesn't mention any numbers though | 03:18 |
| Timvde | There were about 60 infections in total, so 12 deaths is already 20%... That's incredibly high, and even crazier considering the vaccination | 03:20 |
| de-facto | i think its pretty clear now that we cant rely on vaccinations "to end" the pandemic, as i was saying a year ago already incidence must be brought down with NPIs, vaccinations help us with keeping it under control at low rates then | 03:20 |
| Win7ine | Timvde somehow not surprising if a the variant Delta, ther is now also a Delta PLUS identified and 1 in 10 hospitalisations 2 weeks ago were fully vaccinated individuals with DELTA | 03:21 |
| de-facto | btw was was that delta plus thingy? | 03:22 |
| de-facto | delta with some more mutations included? which ones woudl that be? | 03:22 |
| Win7ine | Timvde the olnly way vaccine can work is if it is deployed synchronized around the globe or no peoples movement is taking place. As long as there are infections ther will be new variants that circumvent immune response | 03:23 |
| de-facto | maybe delta could improve on vaccine evasion with aquiring some immune escape capabilities in addition to its fitness advantages? | 03:24 |
| de-facto | (hopefully not, but potentially I guess it could do that) | 03:24 |
| Win7ine | It has | 03:24 |
| Timvde | Win7ine: Not necessarily. We see that the current vaccines work great against most of the variants, it's only Delta that is troublesome | 03:25 |
| Win7ine | Now we have Delta Plus as well | 03:25 |
| Timvde | de-facto: https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/25/health/delta-plus-variant-explainer-intl-hnk-scn/index.html | 03:25 |
| de-facto | such a mutant would be selected in a population where vaccine breakthrough is a significant part of incidence | 03:25 |
| LjL | Timvde, the South African variant is pretty damned troublesome vaccine-wise, the only good thing about it is it hasn't seemed to thrive in Europe, perhaps because by the time it got here, the UK variant was there and more infectious than it, so it prevailed | 03:25 |
| Timvde | All variants carry clusters of mutations. Delta Plus has an extra mutation called K417N, which distinguishes it from the regular Delta variant. This mutation affects the spike protein, the part of the virus that attaches to the cells it infects. [...] "The mutation may contribute to immune escape, though its impact on transmissibility is not clear-cut," he added. | 03:26 |
| LjL | Timvde, AZ has about zero efficacy on the South African variant, although it may still have some efficacy in preventing hospitalizations and deaths (but it's not really known) | 03:26 |
| Timvde | LjL: True, AZ has been pretty bad against it. I'm actually not sure about the other vaccines, I thought the mRNA vaccines were still good enough. | 03:27 |
| Timvde | But the "Delta Plus" is apparently a very similar mutation to the Beta variant, so that sounds kinda dangerous | 03:27 |
| Win7ine | After Delta comes Epsilon and Zeta/ETA ... | 03:28 |
| LjL | Timvde, the mRNA vaccines, in vitro, are about 10 to 12 times less effective at killing the virus. how that translates to actual immunity for people i'm not sure, i *think* they're still somewhat efficacious | 03:28 |
| LjL | (i mean with the SA variant) | 03:28 |
| de-facto | "Delta Plus has an extra mutation called K417N, which distinguishes it from the regular Delta variant. " | 03:28 |
| Timvde | LjL: What is actually the reason that other variants die out when a more transmittable variant arises? | 03:28 |
| Timvde | I would think that the virus doesn't really care about what else is circulating, it just keeps on reproducing... | 03:29 |
| de-facto | .title https://covariants.org/variants/S.K417 | 03:29 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From covariants.org: CoVariants | 03:30 |
| LjL | Timvde, i'm not entirely sure... if the new variant actually saturated the population, then you could explain it: there's just not enough people to infect anymore. but when we're still at 20% prevalence in the *worst* places (like here), i'm not really sure. but maybe there is a natural tendency for people to take more drastic measures (whether or not the government tells them to) when it becomes clear there is a worse threat... i think that's also a possible | 03:30 |
| LjL | explanation to the way the Indian peak rose at a crazy speed, but then also went down at a similar speed | 03:30 |
| Win7ine | THere were reporte sof the P2 brazilian V at some point and that it ejected the spike protein all together some time ago, never read of it again. | 03:30 |
| LjL | and if you take measures drastic enough to *somewhat* keep the worst variant at bay, then the less infectious variants will die out | 03:30 |
| LjL | just like the flu didn't happen this year | 03:31 |
| Timvde | LjL: it is also not clear that being infected by one variant makes you immune to other variants, so even with higher prevalence, that reasoning doesn't fully work | 03:31 |
| de-facto | hmm so potentially more immune escape but less efficient ACE2 binding, may be a trade off for the virus that may improve overall reproduction in a vaccinated population, but maybe not so much in a immuno-naive population | 03:31 |
| LjL | Timvde, that definitely depends on the variants involved | 03:31 |
| Win7ine | LjL the flu probably did not happen because of social distancing measures | 03:32 |
| Timvde | Yes, of course. | 03:32 |
| LjL | Timvde, but anyway i've seen saying for a while that i don't think the way spikes "go down" can be fully explained by our half-assed lockdowns. i'm not really sure what is going on. | 03:32 |
| de-facto | i guess we will see the dynamics of that B.1.617.2.1 or AY.1 "Delta Plus" | 03:32 |
| LjL | Timvde, sometimes spikes have gone down slowly, but the worst spikes have gone down about as quickly as they went up. and that is a bit peculiar | 03:33 |
| Timvde | LjL: according to the conspiracy theorists here, it's because of one of our virologists :) Apparently he has the power to manipulate numbers world-wide, or something | 03:34 |
| Win7ine | Haha | 03:35 |
| LjL | Timvde, well some people in mediterranean countries do say that the numbers somewhat magically go down when the government wants to open the tourism season :P and as much of a joke that sounds, i *know* that some regions in italy have tampered with the numbers for similar reasons | 03:36 |
| Timvde | LjL: tampering is bad :( But if there was any, I'd expect it to happen in the other direction: make it seem less bad in order to open up more quickly | 03:37 |
| LjL | Timvde, well, yeah, that's what they've done. consider that a study was posted here yesterday indicating a moderate-to-high seasonality effect (less transmission in the summer). i'm sure most of it is a real effect, but eh, i've also seen spikes happen in the middle of the summer, like in Arizona... | 03:38 |
| LjL | this particular study was only on European countries | 03:38 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Zimbabwe: +911 cases (now 45217), +12 deaths (now 1721) since 22 hours ago — Bermuda: +6 cases (now 2510) since 7 days ago | 03:39 |
| Timvde | LjL: yes, we had a really good summer last year, but the cases already started to rise mid-August when the weather still was really good | 03:40 |
| Timvde | I expect there to be a low seasonal effect at best | 03:40 |
| LjL | Timvde, this study placed the low peak at the start of July, so August would already be starting to get worse | 03:42 |
| Timvde | Yes, but what is causing a seasonal effect if not the weather? | 03:42 |
| LjL | Timvde, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.10.21258647v1.full | 03:43 |
| LjL | Timvde, the weather with maybe some added "ignoring the real numbers and not testing people" to get better tourism? :P | 03:43 |
| LjL | anyway, i'm concerned that we'll feel like "it's gone" again, just like last summer, except this time we attribute it to the vaccines, but then it'll hit us like a hurricane again in the fall | 03:44 |
| LjL | while we are utterly unprepared because we're assuming the vaccine will prevent further bad spikes like last winter | 03:44 |
| Win7ine | LjL did you have any Jab yet? | 03:45 |
| LjL | Win7ine, yes, one Pfizer | 03:45 |
| LjL | second will be on 8 July | 03:45 |
| Timvde | LjL: we do have graphs about the positivity rate, and it was also a lot lower during July | 03:46 |
| LjL | it was supposed to be on 10 July but i could move it | 03:46 |
| Timvde | LjL: How many weeks are there in between two shots? | 03:46 |
| LjL | Timvde, true, i'm not saying the "frauds" are a significant contributor, but i'm still scared that the seasonality effect will make us, again, overconfident, just like last summer | 03:46 |
| Timvde | It seems to be different in each country... | 03:46 |
| LjL | Timvde, in Italy, it's 12 weeks for AZ, and between 21 and 48 days for Pfizer | 03:47 |
| LjL | i think Moderna is the same as Pfizer but not sure, and then J&J of course is just one shot, but it's mainly used on people who had COVID previously | 03:47 |
| Timvde | Here, AZ has been recently shortened from 12 to 8 weeks, Pfizer is 5 weeks, Moderna is 4 weeks | 03:47 |
| Win7ine | Modera is mRNA but not the same as BionTech/Pfizer | 03:48 |
| Timvde | Win7ine: that's not what he meant | 03:48 |
| Timvde | He meant "the time in between vaccines is probably the same as for Pfizer" | 03:49 |
| Win7ine | ALso has slightly different side effects | 03:49 |
| Win7ine | Ok | 03:49 |
| Timvde | Definitely going to bed now though | 03:54 |
| Timvde | gn! | 03:54 |
| Win7ine | Have good rest, bye | 03:57 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Channel Islands: +68 cases (now 4218) since 2 days ago | 04:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid-19 Patients Who Experience Loss Of Smell Could Take Up To One Year To Recover: Study → https://is.gd/SlVyXr | 04:31 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Thailand: +4161 cases (now 240452), +51 deaths (now 1870) since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +15649 cases (now 4.7 million), +19 deaths (now 128194) since 23 hours ago — France: +28 deaths (now 110992) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +506 cases (now 1.7 million), +4 deaths (now 17877) since 23 hours ago | 04:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Indonesia doctors fell sick, many died after taking Chinese-made Sinovac vaccine → https://is.gd/AdTR8K | 04:41 |
| LjL | asking again although now everyone's asleep... anyone has a study handy on AZ+Pfizer being more effective than either AZ+AZ or Pfizer+Pfizer? | 05:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: US FDA adds warning about rare heart inflammation to Pfizer, Moderna Covid vaccines → https://is.gd/DTFL5v | 05:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Health: Foods that will help maximise the effect of Covid-19 vaccine → https://is.gd/OjZACG | 05:43 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +568 cases (now 1.1 million), +8 deaths (now 25160) since 23 hours ago | 06:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from This Week In Virology: TWiV 772: COVID-19 clinical update #68 with Dr. Daniel Griffin: In COVID-19 clinical update #68, Daniel Griffin discusses children acquiring infection at birthday parties, immunogenicity of vaccines in solid organ transplant patients, reinfection rates in recovered patients, lack of efficacy of azithromycin, bacterial [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/ooJPLU | 06:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Just give us the vaccines, WHO pleads, as poor countries go wanting → https://is.gd/2N2fH4 | 06:25 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Honduras: +1531 cases (now 258349), +23 deaths (now 6902) since a day ago | 06:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Delta the ‘most transmissible’ of variants, spreading rapidly among unvaccinated populations: WHO chief → https://is.gd/6BwFAM | 06:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Sydney’s COVID-19 cases grow, more restrictions loom → https://is.gd/3FOqdG | 07:27 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Moscow Oblast, Russia: +2436 cases (now 301291), +19 deaths (now 6419) since a day ago — Mexico City, Mexico: +1500 cases (now 678996), +43 deaths (now 34607) since a day ago — Saint Petersburg, Russia: +1194 cases (now 462895), +98 deaths (now 15793) since a day ago — C. Valenciana, Spain: +821 cases (now 399794) since a day ago | 07:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid-19: 'Grab a jab' for all over-18s opens in England: Any adult will be able to get a vaccine without an appointment this weekend at hundreds of walk-in sites. → https://is.gd/d5BIWE | 08:09 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for India: +48698 cases (now 30.2 million), +1176 deaths (now 394109) since 15 hours ago | 08:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Brazilian lawmaker denouncing vaccine deal wears bullet-proof vest to hearing → https://is.gd/XsVz0t | 09:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | June 26, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://is.gd/bkQNit | 09:11 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Uzbekistan: +546 cases (now 108730), +2 deaths (now 727) since a day ago — Germany: +442 cases (now 3.7 million) since 22 hours ago | 09:39 |
| Timvde | LjL: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.13.21258859v1 | 10:07 |
| Timvde | It's still a preprint though | 10:08 |
| Timvde | But afaik that's the original source | 10:09 |
| Timvde | Here's the accompanying press release (it links to the article): https://www.uni-saarland.de/fileadmin/upload/aktuell/pdf/2021/PM_111a_Impfstoffvergleich_Sester.pdf | 10:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Just give us the vaccines, WHO pleads, as poor countries go wanting → https://is.gd/nEozmF | 10:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: UK PM Boris Johnson stands by health secretary who broke Covid rules kissing aide → https://is.gd/NBJ7X8 | 10:43 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Russia: +21665 cases (now 5.4 million), +619 deaths (now 132683) since 23 hours ago | 11:06 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-634590/v1 <-- i wonder if that is what was happening in India | 11:25 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.researchsquare.com: Overuse of Steroid Drugs Methylprednisolone and Dexamethasone (Oral) Causes a Diabetic Patient to Become Infected with the Black Fungus in the Corona Virus. | Research Square | 11:26 |
| de-facto | at least in some of their cases | 11:26 |
| zutt | %cases sweden | 12:51 |
| Brainstorm | zutt: In Sweden, there have been 1.1 million confirmed cases (10.5% of the population) and 14619 deaths (1.3% of cases) as of a day ago. 10.6 million tests were performed (10.3% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.4% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 1.4% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Sweden for time series data. | 12:51 |
| zutt | %cases finland | 12:51 |
| Brainstorm | zutt: In Finland, there have been 94719 confirmed cases (1.7% of the population) and 969 deaths (1.0% of cases) as of a day ago. 5.4 million tests were performed (1.8% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.0% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 2.1% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Finland for time series data. | 12:51 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for UAE: +2282 cases (now 624814), +10 deaths (now 1792) since 21 hours ago | 13:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Brazil sets single-day record for coronavirus cases → https://is.gd/SFDKOm | 13:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from Gazzetta Ufficiale italiana: MINISTERO DELLA SALUTE - ORDINANZA 25 giugno 2021: Ulteriori misure urgenti in materia di contenimento e gestionedell'emergenza epidemiologica da COVID-19 nella Regione Valled'Aosta. (21A03927) → https://is.gd/qv4wUY | 13:29 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Indonesia: +21095 cases (now 2.1 million), +358 deaths (now 56729) since a day ago — Romania: +62 cases (now 1.1 million), +309 deaths (now 33177) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +22 deaths (now 26197) since 16 hours ago — Germany: +433 cases (now 3.7 million) since 23 hours ago | 14:00 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Brunei: +3 cases (now 259) since 3 days ago | 14:37 |
| LjL | thanks Timvde, i want to try to convince my parents to get an antibody test and in case it's low, they might be able to get Pfizer instead of another AZ | 14:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Australia's largest city enters hard two-week Covid-19 lockdown → https://is.gd/NxwHxb | 15:23 |
| Timvde | LjL: can you do that? | 15:28 |
| Timvde | I don't think we have an actual choice | 15:28 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Nepal: +1174 cases (now 632326), +30 deaths (now 8975) since 22 hours ago | 15:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Health: COVID vaccine for pregnant women: What you need to know before the jab → https://is.gd/7cFMpO | 15:44 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Finland: +270 cases (now 94989) since 2 days ago | 16:04 |
| de-facto | hmm hmm do we have *any* data about reduction of transmission likelihood by vaccinations? | 16:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Sri Lanka zoo lion contracts COVID-19 as reports of animal infections rise → https://is.gd/ashGOH | 16:46 |
| de-facto | i need this for a model | 16:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Saturday 26 June 2021 Update: submitted by /u/HippolasCage to r/CoronavirusUK → https://is.gd/p6OHzi | 17:27 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Bangladesh: +4334 cases (now 883138), +77 deaths (now 14053) since a day ago | 17:31 |
| xrogaan | So, Peter Daszak was forced to step down from the investigation team? | 17:47 |
| xrogaan | %title https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9710875/Peter-Daszak-removed-COVID-commission-following-bombshell-conflict-report.html | 17:48 |
| Brainstorm | xrogaan: From www.dailymail.co.uk: Peter Daszak removed from UN commission investigating COVID after being exposed for Lancet letter | Daily Mail Online | 17:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: COVID-19: UK reports 18,270 new coronavirus cases - the highest since 5 February → https://is.gd/U10lmQ | 18:09 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +17668 cases (now 4.7 million) since 22 hours ago | 18:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Health: Covid-19 pandemic leads to 80% drop in routine cancer screening, limits research → https://is.gd/sDuSdP | 18:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Tens of thousands of anti-lockdown protesters march on London in biggest demo yet → https://is.gd/bDmzY9 | 18:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from Shane Crotty: @profshanecrotty: Of the more than 18,000 COVID-19 deaths in May in America, only about 150 were fully vaccinated people. 150! I.e., less than 1% of the COVID-19 fatalities were in vaccinated people.Vaccines [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/mpST5U | 18:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: Delta Variant Forces New Lockdowns As Europe Lifts Covid Restrictions | 26JUN21 → https://is.gd/ruYBF0 | 19:12 |
| Krey[m] | LjL: bcs the repo is pain to navigate in~ | 19:20 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +838 cases (now 4.3 million), +40 deaths (now 127458) since 22 hours ago | 19:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: WHO urges fully vaccinated people to continue to wear masks as delta Covid variant spreads → https://is.gd/DsQeXW | 19:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Hancock quits as health secretary after breaching Covid guidance → https://is.gd/oM7ybF | 19:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock resigns after Covid breach → https://is.gd/TYCeJn | 20:14 |
| LjL | Krey[m], well it's a pain for me as well, it's not like i know all the things in it or i wouldn't need it in the first place. if you have a better idea on how to arrange it, suggestions are welcome | 20:37 |
| Krey[m] | hmmm~ | 20:38 |
| de-facto | its a really neat collection of the finest resources collected and refined for more than a year now though | 21:20 |
| operational | hey so i got pfizer for my first dose but if i go to the same place for my 2nd i'll be getting moderna. is this ok? good, bad? | 21:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from Derek Lowe: @Dereklowe: R to @Dereklowe: And if we had a real ADE problem, you could expect proportionally *more* deaths among the vaccinated, because ADE makes subsequent infections worse - the “enhancement” part. (3/5) → https://is.gd/Uu9tOU | 21:38 |
| de-facto | operational, its not known by trial results, but i *guess* it will be just fine, because the immune system builds immunity against the spike protein blooming form the cells where the vaccine gave the instruction for its production and that is exactly the same version of s-protein for both Pfizer and MOderna | 21:47 |
| de-facto | in doubt ask your MD about that | 21:47 |
| Arsanerit | Tomorrow morning I get my second dose with Comirnaty® | 22:05 |
| de-facto | nice, got something important the day after tomorrow? :D | 22:09 |
| de-facto | well then you are just in time before the raise of delta to be fully immunized | 22:10 |
| de-facto | that good | 22:10 |
| LjL | who does Pfizer+Moderna? O.o | 22:15 |
| LjL | at least there is a *reason* to do AZ+Pfizer, be it good or bad | 22:15 |
| LjL | but Pfizer+Moderna, while probably fine, sounds just silly | 22:16 |
| de-facto | i would try to stick to something that will later be "supported" as with the existence of trial results so expectation values can be given etc | 22:19 |
| LjL | de-facto, i made a bit of a scene with my parents because they just wouldn't listen, although now i am unsure whether it's a good idea anyway - they booked an S-protein RBD IgG antibody test (supposedly quite specific for vaccine-elicited antibodies, €35) so that if they turn out to have few antibodies, they can show it and hopefully get Pfizer as second shot instead of another AZ | 22:19 |
| LjL | but now i wonder 1) what if Pfizer makes them feel quite bad, especially my mom who's always feeling sick anyway, and 2) will the place where they get the antibody test be a needless COVID risk too | 22:19 |
| LjL | (the scene was because i've been saying this for days and of course the slots for these tests are now limited and the vaccine is shortly) | 22:20 |
| de-facto | hmm i am not sure such results are "normalized" as in comparable, do they provide comparison values for their analytic pipeline for both Pfizer and AZ? | 22:21 |
| de-facto | also they can just pick out "one" type of antibody, the one that binds to their artificial antigen | 22:21 |
| de-facto | so they only can measure exactly the one that they "ask for" | 22:22 |
| de-facto | they dont know about how "broad" the antibody spectrum is and how well it would bind to another antigen (if they dont have it in their assay) | 22:22 |
| de-facto | also i am not sure if its already established how well such results actually correlate with neutralization assays with live pathogen in cell cultures | 22:23 |
| de-facto | do we have papers about that? | 22:23 |
| Arsanerit | de-facto: the day after tomorrow... just a working day | 22:27 |
| de-facto | LjL, but for sure if ELISA was negative it would mean vaccination did not work, if above a certain level (which one for that specific analytic pipeline though?) it may indicate there should (potentially?) be a certain level of immunity associated with that | 22:28 |
| de-facto | Arsanerit, i am curious to hear from people about their second injection experiences, so far i have heard the full spectrum from no side effects to flu like symptoms for a day | 22:29 |
| Arsanerit | de-facto: ok, I'll let you know, assuming I survive to come back to IRC ;) | 22:30 |
| de-facto | all ended up to just be fine though, yet i wonder on what it depends | 22:30 |
| de-facto | yeah probably the majority of people dont have much side effects and we only hear from the ones that experienced some side effects because then they have something to report | 22:31 |
| de-facto | hence i always ask people about that | 22:31 |
| Arsanerit | I had mild side effects after the first dose | 22:31 |
| de-facto | yeah thats for most it seems | 22:31 |
| de-facto | like a bit of sore arm and fatigue for primer | 22:32 |
| Arsanerit | yes | 22:41 |
| Arsanerit | I was a bit dizzy too. | 22:41 |
| LjL | de-facto, it's not specific to any vaccine. it will give a value with a scale and points that say "below this it's probably too low". i realize it's far from perfect, but really it's just a way to try to obtain Pfizer as a second dose... which i'm a bit conflicted about (i know the studies aren't big), but i don't want to spend another winter scared that they get COVID | 22:45 |
| LjL | if AZ+Pfizer really gives the highest immunity i just find it attractive for my parents | 22:45 |
| LjL | i hope my judgment isn't biased too much by... now wanting to be scared another winter | 22:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Scientists at Wuhan lab admit being bitten by bats in cave which is home to Covid-infected bats → https://is.gd/ck1OZR | 22:46 |
| de-facto | LjL, i hear you, i am also worried about my parents in their 70s, but when being honest we both know there will be no 100% protection especially not for them as being elderly, ofc one would desire the best possible protection for them | 22:47 |
| de-facto | i guess we also could look at UK hospital data for such questions | 22:48 |
| LjL | de-facto, well, i don't know the details of the data (and the person who knows doesn't like to give me URLs but only tweets with pictures of graphs), but in general, 1/3 of the deaths in the UK are currently among vaccinated people, and 50% of new cases in Israel are among vaccinated people | 22:49 |
| LjL | i know, ages, biases, etc | 22:49 |
| LjL | but still | 22:49 |
| de-facto | the important thing is that they get their second shot prior to delta rise | 22:49 |
| LjL | de-facto, unfortunately my dad moved it from june 29 to july 3, maybe that wasn't the best idea, but he wanted to get it at a place closer to home | 22:50 |
| LjL | now my parents both have it on july 3 | 22:50 |
| LjL | (and i have it on july 8) | 22:50 |
| de-facto | yeah thats fine | 22:50 |
| LjL | i think it will be just around delta becoming dominant according to your calculations | 22:50 |
| LjL | well, your calculations were for germany, i just assume they mostly apply | 22:50 |
| de-facto | well dominant but with low incidence | 22:50 |
| LjL | i heard delta is 17% here now (just from tv, so i don't know if it's just the unadjusted sequencing ratio, probably is) | 22:51 |
| de-facto | i want to integrate seasonality and vaccinations | 22:51 |
| LjL | yes, right | 22:51 |
| LjL | de-facto, seasonality + vaccinations + NPI = zero covid | 22:51 |
| LjL | but instead, we'll be doing the opposite of the NPI part ;( | 22:51 |
| de-facto | seasonality with sinus (from that paper with 42.1% amplitude factor) and vaccinations i thought i would just employ a logistic function for that | 22:51 |
| de-facto | for Germany i wanted to assume vaccinations(t) = 0.835/(1 + 359 Exp[-t/32.3434]); | 22:52 |
| de-facto | just because 16.5% of population would be below 18 (hence 1-0.165 = 0.835 saturation point) | 22:52 |
| LjL | although to be fair, say all you want about masks, but with ~30°C or even less, it DRIPS inside the mask, it's pretty awful | 22:52 |
| de-facto | and from eyeballing on OWID those vaccination curves look to me like logistic functions, S-shape gaining some initial speed, then having a linear part and going into saturation at some point when most demand is satisfied | 22:54 |
| de-facto | so in an "ideal world" everyone would get their shot, except those young ( i took 18 years old because i did not find any demographics for younger) | 22:55 |
| de-facto | LjL, do we have any estimated on the likelihood for a fully vaccinated to *transmit* delta (compared to someone not vaccinated) in the same environment? | 22:58 |
| LjL | de-facto, do we even have that for Alpha? :P | 23:00 |
| LjL | i think i still don't have a paper to shove in the face of people who say "vaccine only stops symptoms, not transmission" | 23:00 |
| LjL | it's pretty obvious it also helps lower transmission, but it's hard to measure | 23:01 |
| LjL | well actually i think there was some Scottish paper perhaps about lowered transmission in households | 23:01 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for India: +48858 cases (now 30.2 million), +1218 deaths (now 394528) since 21 hours ago | 23:01 |
| de-facto | protection from symptomatic infection with delta is ~88% with BNT but i assume transmission including asymptomatic events would therefore have to be <88% then | 23:01 |
| LjL | but definitely just about the UK variant, well before Delta | 23:01 |
| LjL | de-facto, maybe, not necessarily. but i just don't know | 23:01 |
| de-facto | oh yeah you are right there was something about secondary attack rates in households | 23:02 |
| de-facto | but it was after 1st shot only afaik | 23:02 |
| LjL | dunno about that, but it was definitely not about Delta | 23:02 |
| de-facto | good remark i almost forgot about those, we would need a study about Delta with fully vaccinated on secondary attack rates in households | 23:03 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2107717 | 23:09 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.nejm.org: Effect of Vaccination on Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in England | NEJM | 23:09 |
| de-facto | "Overall, the likelihood of household transmission was approximately 40 to 50% lower in households of index patients who had been vaccinated 21 days or more before testing positive than in households of unvaccinated index patients; the findings were similar for the two vaccines. Most of the vaccinated index patients in our data set (93%) had received only the first dose of vaccine." | 23:11 |
| de-facto | so hmm ~50% for both BNT and AZ against B.1.1.7 afer primer | 23:12 |
| de-facto | so second shot would increase that protection > 50% for B.1.1.7 but then comes B.1.617.2 and puts it down again, where would it land though? | 23:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from Shane Crotty: @DrPatSoonShiong: RT by @profshanecrotty: The role of NK cells in Covid is key to recovery . NK and T cells matter #SARSCoV2 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/ebiom/article/PIIS2352-3964(21)00251-6/fulltext → https://is.gd/H1yUqm | 23:27 |
| de-facto | hah | 23:29 |
| LjL | de-facto, i think 50% is also about the protection you get from symptomatic disease with one dose on Pfizer | 23:56 |
| LjL | so maybe whatever the efficacy number is for two doses, that's also the reduction in household transmission? | 23:57 |
| LjL | (bit of a stretched guess) | 23:57 |
| de-facto | hmm is that Delta? | 23:57 |
| de-facto | hmm above study also is ALpha though | 23:59 |
| de-facto | "Between January 4 and February 28, 2021, there were 960,765 household contacts of unvaccinated index patients, and there were 96,898 secondary cases of Covid-19 (10.1%). " | 23:59 |
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