| de-facto | nixonix, i am not sure but they put efforts into avoiding bias | 00:01 |
|---|---|---|
| de-facto | not sure about shares, those are cases | 00:02 |
| de-facto | uk does maps with shares | 00:02 |
| nixonix | i wish those health officials, who currently seem to have very different view, would be more open about the argument inside of those institutes | 00:02 |
| nixonix | sometimes it slips out in twitter, but usually its those that get more media time, whose opinions are visible to public | 00:03 |
| nixonix | or those that tweet a lot | 00:03 |
| de-facto | oh the matrix bridge came back | 00:04 |
| nixonix | like spring 2020 some of them had this idea of herd immunity by "letting it burn through with a small flame". those that had been in contact with tegnell and patrick vallance | 00:05 |
| de-facto | well in spring 2020 we did not know that vaccines would work | 00:05 |
| nixonix | also some of them said that vaccines will take many years, and might never come | 00:05 |
| de-facto | now we did not know that vaccines *alone* dont work | 00:06 |
| nixonix | were there talks about herd immunity by infections in germany? meaning officials or politicians in power | 00:07 |
| de-facto | yeah but never like burn through on low flame, not that i can remember that it was considered an option here, at least not by officials | 00:08 |
| de-facto | heard immunity was mentioned, they call it group immunity, but still more like the point of endemic, and now with delta i think its clear we need additional NPIs for maintaining control | 00:09 |
| nixonix | our government, in the beginning, tried to avoid saying which way they wanted to go, tight restrictions trying to suppress it as much as possible, or the slow burning way cutting the peaks to keep it within healthcare capacity | 00:09 |
| nixonix | leaning more to the cutting the peaks, tho, during the first few weeks. then the public pressure made them to limit the traffic to the country, and finally close the bars around 6th april i think, for a few weeks | 00:10 |
| de-facto | idk if healthcare capacity became the metric it indicates something went very wrong already | 00:10 |
| nixonix | while some health officials still continuing with herd immunity strategy, saying things like "the cases have already dropped too much" | 00:11 |
| de-facto | %cases finnland | 00:11 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: Sorry, finnland not found. Either there aren't cases, or it's under a different name. | 00:11 |
| de-facto | %cases finland | 00:11 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: In Finland, there have been 95387 confirmed cases (1.7% of the population) and 969 deaths (1.0% of cases) as of 10 hours ago. 5.4 million tests were performed (1.8% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.0% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 2.1% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Finland for time series data. | 00:11 |
| de-facto | below 1k fatalities that is fantastic | 00:11 |
| de-facto | %cases germany | 00:12 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: In Germany, there have been 3.7 million confirmed cases (4.5% of the population) and 91182 deaths (2.4% of cases) as of 3 minutes ago. 66.1 million tests were performed (5.7% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.9% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 2.5% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data. | 00:12 |
| nixonix | and things like "there might not be the second wave in finland in the fall" (the quote was from an immunologist, tho) | 00:12 |
| de-facto | Germany got 6 times more fatalities than Finnland per citizen | 00:12 |
| de-facto | *Finland | 00:12 |
| de-facto | (sorry i swear i dont do it on purpose i have a headache today) | 00:13 |
| nixonix | what, two n's? its finnland in germany. english speakers often type Fin (instead of finn). its confusing yeah | 00:14 |
| tsundere | we do? | 00:14 |
| nixonix | yeah, yanks mostly i think | 00:14 |
| tsundere | never4 heard of that | 00:14 |
| nixonix | maybe our country or citizens dont get mentined that often... i wonder why | 00:15 |
| de-facto | oh everyone knows Nokia and Linus :) | 00:15 |
| de-facto | oh my what is going on with matrix | 00:16 |
| tsundere | nerds know that desktop movie star trek thing | 00:16 |
| nixonix | nokia phones, somebody still remembers... | 00:16 |
| nixonix | they were big in germany i think. and africa | 00:16 |
| de-facto | worldwide | 00:17 |
| nixonix | not in usa. they liked motorola | 00:17 |
| de-facto | i thought they were sold worldwide (and also were bought worldwide), but maybe you know more details | 00:18 |
| de-facto | nixonix, why is incidence so low in Finland? population density or some special measures? | 00:19 |
| nixonix | not even sold everywhere in usa, when they mostly got them as part of mobile subscription, paying monthly fees. and not many operators had nokia there | 00:19 |
| nixonix | and motorola was more popular anyway | 00:20 |
| de-facto | i still have my Nokia N82, i love it :) | 00:20 |
| de-facto | first phone with a proper camera | 00:20 |
| de-facto | and heh it lasted many days with one battery charge | 00:20 |
| nixonix | we discussed about that with ljl a few days ago. the restrictions have been few here, but ppl have mostly avoided crowded inside spaces voluntarily | 00:21 |
| de-facto | (unless playing snake of course :D | 00:21 |
| nixonix | also most of those NPI's, that we missed, arent effective anyways | 00:21 |
| de-facto | something you did there seems to have worked | 00:21 |
| de-facto | below 1000 fatalities that is fantastic, even with 5.5M citizens | 00:22 |
| tsundere | which ones? --- 15:21 <nixonix> also most of those NPI's, that we missed, arent effective anyways | 00:24 |
| nixonix | are the matrix users coming back? | 00:25 |
| de-facto | in waves... | 00:25 |
| nixonix | i was going to wait for a moment before continuing | 00:25 |
| nixonix | LjL is the matrix bridge calming down? | 00:26 |
| tsundere | so this eems to have nothing to do with finland https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mickey_Finn_%28drugs%29 unlike shanghaiing somebody | 00:27 |
| nixonix | Irish: reduced Anglicized form of Gaelic Ó Finn 'descendant of Fionn', a byname meaning 'white' or 'fair-haired'. | 00:31 |
| nixonix | its confusing to estimate which NPI's dont matter, because usually they are studied without taking into account the other measures, that were made at the same time. so you dont know which ones did matter, and which ones did | 00:33 |
| nixonix | so you need to study as many of them at the same time, not 2 or 3 | 00:33 |
| nixonix | and in as many countries as possible too | 00:33 |
| tsundere | sounds like a tricky statistical question | 00:36 |
| nixonix | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.28.20116129v4.full | 00:37 |
| tsundere | i wonder what tricks are used to isolate or estimate the effect one variable when ALL measurements are affected by a lot of variables | 00:37 |
| nixonix | .title | 00:37 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.medrxiv.org: The effectiveness of eight nonpharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 in 41 countries | medRxiv | 00:37 |
| nixonix | they couldnt separate the effect of different degree schools there, because they were usually closed at the same time. so they are all as a same NPI. from primary schools to universities | 00:38 |
| nixonix | from that it seems, a hard lockdown, on top of other measures, isnt very effective | 00:40 |
| nixonix | it does something, but not that much | 00:40 |
| nixonix | figure 3 | 00:40 |
| nixonix | also closing almost all the businesses didnt matter that much, if the high risk businesses like bars were already closed | 00:41 |
| tsundere | what about the one in hokkaido | 00:41 |
| nixonix | hokkaido? | 00:42 |
| tsundere | the first lockdown i am aware of outside china (there might be others thoguh) | 00:42 |
| de-facto | btw published now | 00:42 |
| de-facto | .title https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6531/eabd9338 | 00:42 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From science.sciencemag.org: Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19 | Science | 00:43 |
| tsundere | lots and lots of chinese and russian ski tourists | 00:43 |
| nixonix | yeah i noticed. but they removed mask effect from that, saying it was because it varied if it was mandatory or voluntary, and they couldnt find out the difference of mandatory or not | 00:43 |
| nixonix | and also mask usage, those type of masks and the way it was used in the spring 2020 didnt seem to affect | 00:44 |
| nixonix | that study was for 8 NPI's in 41 countries. i dont think it usefull to compare it to a lockdown in single country, and also when in that single country the other measures done at the same time are not considered | 00:46 |
| nixonix | *...dont think its useful... | 00:47 |
| nixonix | here's that figure 3: https://i.imgur.com/lXh2JYI.png | 00:50 |
| nixonix | Lytton in British Columbia soared to 46.6C (116F) on Sunday, breaking an 84-year-old record | 00:59 |
| LjL | nixonix, i have honestly no idea, i have people on the other side (Matrix) asking about the bridge, and all i can say is i know Matrix is being attacked, the bridge is being shut down manually when it sayw "node-irc says goodbye", and if i try to "comment on spam" in #matrix:matrix.org i'm told to shut up | 01:01 |
| nixonix | interesting. keep us updated if you hear something whats happening | 01:04 |
| nixonix | maybe they are afraid of irc, that it would be big again | 01:04 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Israel: +290 cases (now 841486) since a day ago — Bangladesh: +7666 cases (now 904436), +112 deaths (now 14388) since a day ago | 01:04 |
| LjL | nixonix, this is the official status about what's happening https://twitter.com/matrixdotorg/status/1409873992454967304 | 01:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: The Royal Flying Doctor Service (RFDS) is holding "fly-in" vaccination clinics across northern and western South Australia over the next week-and-a-half to protect the state's most remote residents from COVID-19. → https://is.gd/oKZEc1 | 01:07 |
| nixonix | March 2021, matrix.org announced that there are 28 million global visible accounts discord: December 2020, the service has over 140 million monthly active users | 01:09 |
| LjL | yeah well i ain't using Discord | 01:11 |
| LjL | i barely tolerate Matrix but at least it's open source and everything | 01:11 |
| nixonix | discord have more accounts than that, tho. May 2019, Discord reported it had at least 250 million registered users across its web and mobile platforms | 01:12 |
| LjL | if you consider the perceived relatively popularity (and sheer knowledge) of the two platforms, i'd say Matrix isn't doing badly at all. but of course there are other more important metrics than just registered users | 01:14 |
| nixonix | i had a discount account, but as usual, i forgot the pw. and prob the nick too. then i once tried to reg again, and it wanted a phone number. and i dont even like regging unless i really think its worth it. not giving them a phone number | 01:15 |
| LjL | requiring phone numbers is annoying | 01:15 |
| nixonix | best general topic forums here used to be no regging needed. trolls used to be better too | 01:16 |
| nixonix | btw, derek lowe announced some changes to moderating his blog comments | 01:17 |
| nixonix | there have been some anti-vaxers and just a flu bro people lately | 01:18 |
| LjL | what's a flu bro, someone who is like "it's just a flu, bro"? | 01:18 |
| nixonix | but if the noise isnt too overwhelming, its not necessarily that bad. because the counter arguments there have been good | 01:18 |
| LjL | so what are the changes he's making? | 01:18 |
| nixonix | yeah those that think sars2 isnt more dangerous than common flus. and restrictions should just be lifted, those dying are old or fat anyway. stuff like that | 01:19 |
| nixonix | im not sure, i just had a quick glance (changes). but less open anyway | 01:19 |
| nixonix | .title https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/06/28/an-announcement-about-the-comment-section | 01:20 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From blogs.sciencemag.org: An Announcement About the Comment Section | In the Pipeline | 01:20 |
| nixonix | "starting today I will be deleting whatever I feel are tendentious comments meant to keep the coronavirus arguments going. I’ve actually canned a good number of comments over the last few months that are full of outright misinformation, and I’m going to lower my cutoff for that stuff, too | 01:23 |
| nixonix | here's one. and i think because of the excellent counter arguments, that anti | 01:27 |
| nixonix | -vaxers posts had actually value: | 01:27 |
| nixonix | https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/06/25/drug-repurposing-for-coronaviruses-be-careful#comment-347128 | 01:27 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said a "grave incident" has happened that could threaten the safety of his people and country in nationwide anti-epidemic efforts, state media reported Wednesday → https://is.gd/jy0T84 | 01:28 |
| nixonix | so his argument was, that in israel 50% of new infections was in fully vaccinated people. thus the vaccines wouldnt work | 01:29 |
| nixonix | and why is that? because most of over 16 yo in israel are already vaccinated - and there are naturally some breakthroughs | 01:30 |
| nixonix | if the vaccine coverage was 100%, then 100% of new infections would be among fully vaccinated people. so vaccines had 0% efficacy? | 01:31 |
| nixonix | i wonder if that dude thought again, then came back and admitted, he had been wrong all the time | 01:31 |
| nixonix | they never seem to change their mind. the evidence somehow vanishes from their mind, and they jump to another "evidence" how vaccines, especially mrna from pfizer, are bad and dangerous | 01:32 |
| nixonix | those fellers do their best to harm the vaccination campaigns in the west | 01:33 |
| nixonix | so those with knowledge should "go out" sometimes, and argue with them on public platfroms | 01:34 |
| nixonix | not necessarily ranting on the streets, so you wont get arrested. but in a figure of speech go out | 01:35 |
| LjL | nixonix, i am concerned though about the 50% cases happening in vaccinated people in Israel, and about 30% of the deaths in the UK being in vaccinated people | 01:36 |
| LjL | i understand that the demographics differ | 01:36 |
| LjL | i know the numbers are small overall | 01:37 |
| LjL | but the numbers were small last summer too | 01:37 |
| LjL | and we didn't even have vaccines to help | 01:37 |
| nixonix | btw, israels low looking vaccination numbers. they have under 60% fully vaccinated, and a bit over 60 one dose, i think - a large factor is, 27% is under 15 yo. and not yet started to vacc under 16 | 01:37 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/commentisfree/2021/jun/27/why-most-people-who-now-die-with-covid-have-been-vaccinated | 01:37 |
| LjL | yeah something happened with the vaccination campaign in israel. must have been at the time when Pfizer said they wouldn't deliver more doses because Israel wasn't paying | 01:37 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.theguardian.com: Why most people who now die with Covid in England have had a vaccination | David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters | The Guardian | 01:37 |
| LjL | i don't know if it's *because* of that but the campaign definitely seems to have stalled | 01:38 |
| LjL | other people say it's because of the ultra-orthodox etc, but those are like 8% | 01:38 |
| nixonix | what, not paying? you have a link? | 01:38 |
| LjL | uh, it's old stuff, but maybe | 01:38 |
| nixonix | yeah i said, its lower among ultras and arabs, but its mostly about kids | 01:38 |
| LjL | [21:47:09] <Brainstorm> New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Pfizer halts corona vaccine shipments to Israel after failure to pay → https://is.gd/4hccHt | 01:39 |
| LjL | [22:39:33] <Brainstorm> New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Pfizer said to warn Israel: Pay up or go to the back of vaccine line → https://is.gd/tavglA | 01:39 |
| LjL | [21:50:50] <Brainstorm> New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Pfizer halts corona vaccine shipments to Israel after failure to pay → https://is.gd/qZeARZ | 01:39 |
| nixonix | so 27% under 15, lets say 29% under 16 - meaning only 71% are currently vaccinated. and if its around 62% for the first dose: .62 / .71 = 87.3% coverage among those eligible | 01:42 |
| nixonix | not bad imo | 01:42 |
| nixonix | and over 80% fully vaccinated | 01:43 |
| nixonix | strange, that payment issue | 01:45 |
| nixonix | then some countries have been collecting money from citizens to buy vaccines. vietnam i think | 01:45 |
| nixonix | btw, this is just a claim i saw - not sure if true, the cost of az is close to those mrna vaccines because its a factory price. and those pfizer and moderna includes shipping and logistics, which is very expensive because, esp with the cold requirements | 01:46 |
| nixonix | which isnt that big issue with az but anyway | 01:46 |
| nixonix | israel paid premium for early access to pfizer to, maybe they are now trying to get the later batches for normal price | 01:47 |
| nixonix | to=though | 01:47 |
| LjL | my mom sent me something about hearing that a third dose of AZ builds strong immunity against the variants. but i think what she was referring to was something that i saw here yesterday or two days ago, where it said a third AZ dose builds a solid amount of further immunity, but i'm not sure immunity to the same old thing will be decent enough to fend off the variants eventually | 01:50 |
| LjL | also by the time my parents can get a third dose, Delta will be rampant here | 01:51 |
| LjL | a preprint that showed up yesterday that de-facto had a look at said that Delta is actually more evasive than, uh, whatever B.1.351 is called now by the WHO | 01:51 |
| LjL | and especially AZ acts weakly against it, in vitro | 01:52 |
| pwr22 | That was neutralising tests iirc right? | 01:52 |
| pwr22 | Hopefully in practice it works better than nothing | 01:52 |
| pwr22 | 😀 | 01:52 |
| LjL | pwr22, yes it was in vitro stuff | 01:53 |
| LjL | not something i can understand beyond what i've said, n-fold reduction etc, doesn't mean anything practical to me | 01:53 |
| Krey[m] | Does hydroxiquroquin (bothed the name probably) really work on covid? | 01:53 |
| LjL | i was hoping my parents could get Pfizer as a second dose since that's what they're doing here for under-60 people but nope | 01:53 |
| nixonix | i doubt no western country will be sharing 3rd dose of adenovirus vaccine, esp with the same ad vector | 01:54 |
| Krey[m] | * Does hydroxiquroquin (botched the name probably) really work on covid? | 01:54 |
| LjL | Krey[m], mostly no | 01:54 |
| Krey[m] | mostly? | 01:54 |
| nixonix | *any western country | 01:54 |
| LjL | Krey[m], well some early trials seemed promising but that's why after small early trials you do more trials, and the subsequent trials weren't good | 01:54 |
| pwr22 | LjL: deaths still not really rising up here in the UK which means everything is probably going to be opened up in July | 01:54 |
| nixonix | .title https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/10/09/hard-data | 01:54 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From blogs.sciencemag.org: Hard Data on Remdesivir, and on Hydroxychloroquine | In the Pipeline | 01:54 |
| tsundere | why would htat be mosly? | 01:54 |
| pwr22 | Bodes well for the effectiveness of the current vaccine mix shielding from severe disease | 01:54 |
| Krey[m] | LjL: hmm interesting O>o | 01:54 |
| LjL | okay forget about mostly | 01:55 |
| LjL | "no" | 01:55 |
| Krey[m] | * LjL: hmm interesting O.o | 01:55 |
| LjL | pwr22, deaths have risen a little... not much, but it's visible... i hope they just stop where they are but sheesh, 22000 cases today, when i heard it on tv i had a bit of a thing | 01:55 |
| Krey[m] | tsundere: leave him be! he's just our benevolent channel runner~ tsunde~ | 01:55 |
| LjL | you calling me benevolent? | 01:56 |
| pwr22 | LjL: no-stly :P? | 01:56 |
| LjL | groan | 01:56 |
| tsundere | was my question inappropriate? | 01:57 |
| pwr22 | With smoothing the deaths haven't really taken off in any way that would imply problems with the vaccines and Boris's grand plan | 01:57 |
| pwr22 | At least in the current summer climate etc | 01:57 |
| nixonix | was that a new preprint? 617.2 vs 351 | 01:58 |
| nixonix | about those ab titer fold reduction, some australian team had a model that supposedly can be used to estimate how they correlate with the real world protection | 01:59 |
| Krey[m] | <tsundere "was my question inappropriate?"> nah i just like to bully people :P | 02:00 |
| nixonix | We estimated the neutralization level for 50% protection against detectable SARS-CoV-2 infection to be 20.2% of the mean convalescent level (95% confidence interval (CI) = 14.4–28.4%). The estimated neutralization level required for 50% protection from severe infection was significantly lower (3% of the mean convalescent level; 95% CI = | 02:05 |
| nixonix | 0.7–13%, P = 0.0004). | 02:06 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01377-8 | 02:06 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.nature.com: Neutralizing antibody levels are highly predictive of immune protection from symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection | Nature Medicine | 02:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Norway: +225 cases (now 131037) since 12 hours ago | 02:07 |
| nixonix | i think novavax wont be here before late winter or spring. so it will be mrna for awhile anyway. also as a booster for those on az | 02:07 |
| nixonix | anyways, those neutralizing ab studies ive seen, usually have low number of nab's studied, and arent comparable to each other. they might be better or worse, if many more nab's were included | 02:10 |
| nixonix | and curevac had hight nab titers, yet it failed | 02:12 |
| tsundere | for m.e. rituximab had anecdotal positive results that got completely unrelated researchers interested and they still are in the field now. they did a phase 2. positive. a lot of optimism altohugh a drug that was harder to tolerate in that population. then phase 3. negative. | 02:13 |
| nixonix | derek lowe's blog is great. some of the questions are hard to find answers, and some of his answeres have come even before i thought about the question | 02:17 |
| nixonix | btw, usa just dropped eli lilly's cocktail of two moabs, because they were inefficient vs couple of variants that have been around there. they kept regeneron's single moab, that wasnt affected | 02:19 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for France: +39 deaths (now 111102) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +420 cases (now 1.7 million), +1 deaths (now 17883) since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +7 deaths (now 128241) since 23 hours ago | 02:32 |
| tsundere | sorry, ignorant, moab? | 02:35 |
| nixonix | monoclonal antibody, mAb also used, but mab wolndt be very descriptive | 02:37 |
| nixonix | i thought maybe it could be associated as i wrote that after that rituximab comment, which is also a moab | 02:37 |
| nixonix | "The risk of being exposed to Covid-19 indoors can be as great at 60 feet as it is at 6 feet in a room where the air is mixed | 02:38 |
| nixonix | oh, that was a couple of monts old article already... | 02:38 |
| nixonix | well, here it goes anyway | 02:38 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/mit-researchers-say-youre-no-safer-from-covid-indoors-at-6-feet-or-60-feet-in-new-study.html | 02:39 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.cnbc.com: MIT researchers say time spent indoors increases risk of Covid at 6 feet or 60 feet in new study | 02:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Doctors Vaccinated With China's SinoVac Die Of COVID-19 In Indonesia → https://is.gd/gb1bP1 | 02:40 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/13/7/1211/htm | 02:53 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.mdpi.com: Viruses | Free Full-Text | SARS-CoV-2 Variants: A Synopsis of In Vitro Efficacy Data of Convalescent Plasma, Currently Marketed Vaccines, and Monoclonal Antibodies | HTML | 02:53 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/moderna-says-vaccine-triggers-high-enough-antibodies-against-delta-20210630-p585fj.html | 02:57 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.smh.com.au: Coronavirus: Moderna says vaccine triggers high enough antibodies against Delta | 02:57 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01462-8/fulltext | 02:58 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.thelancet.com: The Lancet | The best science for better lives | 02:58 |
| tsundere | so basically either mrna vaccine is a relatively good choice? | 02:58 |
| tsundere | oh lancet | 02:58 |
| nixonix | * AZD1222-induced neutralising antibody activity against SARS-CoV-2 Delta VOC | 02:58 |
| nixonix | the last one was about astrazeneca | 02:59 |
| nixonix | population studies will tell the answer, not these fold reduction numbers | 03:00 |
| nixonix | not sure if brits have released much about moderna vs 617.2 | 03:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: North Korea reports 'grave incident' related to COVID-19 → https://is.gd/Go8iHt | 03:01 |
| tsundere | that is an unusually vague headline | 03:07 |
| tsundere | and story | 03:07 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Cyprus: +332 cases (now 75431) since 23 hours ago | 03:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Guatemala asks Russia to return money over failure to deliver Sputnik COVID-19 vaccine → https://is.gd/U6QglS | 03:22 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: India’s Covaxin effectively neutralises Delta variant of Covid: US’ National Institute of Health → https://is.gd/iSemNK | 03:53 |
| tsundere | i have not been following news. but what creeps around the corner is delta variant. but all i hear is that everythign works for it. so why is it being talked about? | 03:55 |
| LjL | okay sorry somehow i spent like two hours looking at youtube videos of earthquakes and emergency warnings | 03:57 |
| LjL | so | 03:57 |
| LjL | tsundere, no, your question was not inappropriate, i just opened a can of worms with "mostly" that i didn't really want to | 03:58 |
| LjL | Krey[m], stop being a bully | 03:58 |
| LjL | nixo- oh he's gone | 03:58 |
| Krey[m] | i am everywhere | 03:58 |
| Krey[m] | and i just figured out that there is a super glue for wounds o.o | 03:59 |
| Krey[m] | such a nice addition for my medpack x.x | 04:00 |
| Krey[m] | ... | 04:00 |
| Krey[m] | hmmm | 04:00 |
| Krey[m] | they seems to have one for animals | 04:00 |
| Krey[m] | and it's much cheaper | 04:00 |
| Krey[m] | hmmm~ | 04:00 |
| Brainstorm | New from Politico: Wanted: A guide to post-coronavirus etiquette: As lockdowns lift, we need to decide what's safe, what's friendly and what's just rude. → https://is.gd/WUMODn | 04:03 |
| LjL | Krey[m], why use human-grade products, you are an animal after all | 04:06 |
| Krey[m] | i know right! | 04:06 |
| Krey[m] | it's amazing | 04:06 |
| Krey[m] | also do you have more things i can put in my medpack u.u | 04:06 |
| Krey[m] | it's pretty pathetic atm u.u | 04:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Martinique: +110 cases (now 12374) since 6 days ago | 04:11 |
| LjL | i was about to suggest ##prepping but then i remembering this is not freenode | 04:11 |
| pwr22 | 😀 | 04:12 |
| LjL | %tell nixonix The paper on neutralizing antibody reduction with B.1.617.2 (and with AZ compared to BNT) that I was referring to last night was https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.23.21259327v1 | 04:22 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, I'll pass nixonix your message when they are around. | 04:22 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Panama: +1249 cases (now 402581), +7 deaths (now 6536) since 23 hours ago — Mauritania: +71 cases (now 20747) since 23 hours ago | 04:36 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Mexico: +5711 cases (now 2.5 million), +195 deaths (now 232803) since 23 hours ago — New Zealand: +28 cases (now 2742) since 11 days ago — France: +36 deaths (now 111110) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +1165 cases (now 1.4 million) since 23 hours ago | 05:01 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Bahamas: +119 cases (now 12586), +1 deaths (now 246) since 4 days ago — Lesotho: +105 cases (now 11344) since 3 days ago | 05:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: North Korea’s Kim Jong Un chides officials for unspecified pandemic lapse → https://is.gd/HC8l3F | 06:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from EurekAlert!: Diaries of infection preventionists give inside look at the unsung heroes of the pandemic: Much has been rightfully made of the valiant work of doctors and nurses during the coronavirus pandemic. But what of infection preventionists (IP), whose job was to keep those workers and their facilities safe, and who many Americans do not [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/sFLQzP | 06:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from Francois Balloux: @BallouxFrancois: R to @BallouxFrancois: It will be interesting to reflect on how we will evaluate the epidemiological pandemic policies by different countries in a few years time, with the benefit of hindsight.5/ → https://is.gd/SoMWHt | 06:39 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Honduras: +1738 cases (now 262069), +58 deaths (now 6980) since a day ago | 06:40 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +1072 cases (now 1.1 million), +2 deaths (now 25170) since 23 hours ago | 07:05 |
| Krey[m] | Campbell on DW https://youtu.be/SCN-XZ87yzs | 07:30 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Mexico City, Mexico: +1835 cases (now 683409), +28 deaths (now 34674) since 23 hours ago — Saint Petersburg, Russia: +1374 cases (now 468149), +119 deaths (now 16235) since 23 hours ago — Georgia, United States: +502 cases (now 1.1 million), +19 deaths (now 21412) since 23 hours ago — Tamaulipas, Mexico: +369 cases (now 65269), +3 deaths (now 5230) since 23 hours ago | 07:30 |
| Krey[m] | Two campbell interviews on DW https://youtu.be/VL9b8ClNpdY | 07:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Kim Jong-un: North Korea in ‘great crisis’€™ after Covid lapses → https://is.gd/hT957m | 08:12 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Kyrgyzstan: +1965 cases (now 125003), +8 deaths (now 2000) since 22 hours ago — Cambodia: +1130 cases (now 50385), +27 deaths (now 602) since 23 hours ago — India: +45951 cases (now 30.4 million), +847 deaths (now 398192) since 23 hours ago | 08:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from Science-Based Medicine: COVID-19 and balancing the risks: The vaccine or the virus: Given recent reports of myocarditis after vaccination with mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines in young people, we think it's a good time to reexamine the risk/benefit ratio of these vaccines in this population. The post first appeared on Science-Based Medicine . → https://is.gd/bGr3jy | 09:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Australia Covid: Seventh city locks down amid vaccine chaos: Government leaders offer contradictory advice about AstraZeneca as cases spread to new vulnerable areas. → https://is.gd/WMwLKi | 09:25 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Destination of the week: Thailand ready to tackle outbreak from reopening, minister says → https://is.gd/lHicCc | 09:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from EMA: Human medicine assessment reports: (news): Human medicines European public assessment report (EPAR): COVID-19 Vaccine Janssen, COVID-19 vaccine (Ad26.COV2-S [recombinant]), COVID-19 virus infection, Date of authorisation: 11/03/2021, Revision: 3, Status: Authorised → https://is.gd/leysw6 | 09:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from EMA: Human medicine assessment reports: (news): Human medicines European public assessment report (EPAR): Comirnaty, COVID-19 mRNA vaccine (nucleoside-modified), COVID-19 virus infection, Date of authorisation: 21/12/2020, Revision: 8, Status: Authorised → https://is.gd/golaYG | 10:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from EMA: What's new: Orphan: Orphan designation: Humanised anti-IL-6 receptor monoclonal antibody (satralizumab), Treatment of neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders, 27/06/2016, Positive → https://is.gd/mkZh8x | 10:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Drug companies and suppliers on trial over opioid epidemic that claimed 500,000 lives in 20 years → https://is.gd/hjtpuF | 10:59 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Armenia: +128 cases (now 225095) since a day ago | 11:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from Francois Balloux: @BallouxFrancois: R to @BallouxFrancois: Correction to tweet 2 in the thread: That should have read:"The prospect of global elimination of SARSCoV2 was gone by early 2020, possibly before." Not 2021!Sorry for the confusion.2b/ → https://is.gd/DhLu0W | 11:31 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Consiglio dei Ministri n. 26 ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/consiglio-dei-ministri-n-26/17274 ) | 11:46 | |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Convocazione del Consiglio dei Ministri n. 26 ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/convocazione-del-consiglio-dei-ministri-n-26/17275 ) | 11:46 | |
| de-facto | I dont like the increase of cases in Africa, i suspect we only see a very small part of what really is going on because of much less testing | 12:03 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: COVID-19 is Rising in the Ozarks, and Time Is Running Out → https://is.gd/WfX64D | 12:03 |
| de-facto | they definitely should get some help, e.g. with vaccine deliveries from western countries | 12:03 |
| de-facto | also medical articles such as personal protection equipment etc | 12:04 |
| de-facto | http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=South%20Africa;Tunisia;Libya;Zambia;Namibia;Botswana;Zimbabwe;Rwanda;Trinidad%20and%20Tobago;Cabo%20Verde;Lesotho;Nicaragua;Eritrea;Sierra%20Leone;Liberia&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes | 12:12 |
| de-facto | reminder: on southern hemisphere there is the minimum in temperature right now, hence they got their "winter season" and probably spend more time indoors | 12:16 |
| de-facto | Delta is ~64% more transmissible in households than Alpha | 12:18 |
| undefined_bob | I thought they are doing good because they are used to HIV and Ebola and everything | 12:26 |
| de-facto | well and they have one of the youngest populations worldwide | 12:28 |
| de-facto | but still, when Delta spreads there they also could get a big surge in incidence and their infrastructure does not have as much reserves as western countries | 12:29 |
| de-facto | not sure about mobility, maybe its less there, yet still the reproduction in south africa for example looks alarming | 12:29 |
| de-facto | my worry is that we just dont see much of what really is going on with incidence by looking at their numbers, just because there is less testing and reporting, less accounting the fatalities due to COVID etc | 12:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Putin finally confirms he got the Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine, as Russia struggles to vaccinate people amid spiking cases and deaths → https://is.gd/PMeSCw | 12:34 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zo75yYHFE2g | 12:38 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.youtube.com: Prima di continuare su YouTube | 12:38 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.youtube.com: Prima di continuare su YouTube | 12:38 |
| de-facto | "Russia in grips of third COVID wave as Delta variant takes hold | DW News" | 12:38 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_whwJYJb8wM | 12:39 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.youtube.com: Prima di continuare su YouTube | 12:39 |
| de-facto | "COVID surges across Africa with less than 1% vaccinated | DW News" | 12:39 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +371 cases (now 3.7 million) since 20 hours ago | 12:41 |
| de-facto | they dont even have enough oxygen in African hospitals | 12:42 |
| de-facto | sounds familiar? | 12:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: More calls to bar unvaccinated cruise passengers from disembarking → https://is.gd/4j0ggf | 12:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from WHO Euro: WHO/Europe launches new monitoring tool, tracking rates of COVID-19 in UEFA Euro 2020 host cities: With the UEFA European Football Championships being played in cities across the WHO European Region, WHO/Europe has launched an “explorer” or monitoring tool providing an overview of the current COVID-19 situation in the Region, [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/XIyk37 | 13:06 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Il Presidente Draghi incontra il Segretario Generale OCSE Cormann ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/il-presidente-draghi-incontra-il-segretario-generale-ocse-cormann/17277 ) | 13:21 | |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Indonesia: +21807 cases (now 2.2 million), +467 deaths (now 58491) since a day ago | 13:30 |
| darsie | +29 cases in Austria yesterday. | 13:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Health: Cytomegalovirus in Covid-19 patients: Symptoms, diagnosis, treatment → https://is.gd/hl8rhm | 13:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: Have you heard of Ivermectin? → https://is.gd/gmikKM | 14:00 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Nepal: +1889 cases (now 638805), +41 deaths (now 9112) since 22 hours ago | 14:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from NIH Director's blog: Celebrating the Fourth with Neuroscience Fireworks: There’s so much to celebrate about our country this Fourth of July. That includes giving thanks to all those healthcare providers who have put themselves in harm’s way to staff the ERs, hospital wards, and ICUs to care for those afflicted with COVID-19, and also for [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/7bFzaS | 15:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from Scientific American: Mobile Clinics Can Help Reduce Health Inequity: A man helps his mother fill out paperwork at a mobile vaccine clinic in Miami on May 17, 2021. → https://is.gd/ZaODJ7 | 15:14 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Bangladesh: +8822 cases (now 913258), +115 deaths (now 14503) since 14 hours ago — Switzerland: +129 cases (now 703004), +3 deaths (now 10890) since a day ago | 15:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Wuhan lab researcher linked to military scientists, NBC News finds → https://is.gd/aT5fzi | 15:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Bolsonaro Government Asked for Bribe of $1 per Dose, Says Vaccine Seller → https://is.gd/2RSRD4 | 15:57 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Canada: +54 deaths (now 26273) since 20 hours ago | 16:00 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Finland: +355 cases (now 95742) since a day ago | 16:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from New Scientist: Brain changes from covid-19 may impact consciousness and cognition: Studies show the impact of covid-19 on the brain, with the virus affecting consciousness, cognition and possibly even risk of dementia in later life → https://is.gd/LaZyRp | 16:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from In The Pipeline: Protein Aggregation Diseases: If you have occasion to study neurodegeneration, you will be struck by how many terrible high-profile diseases in this area seem to share a common theme. Alzheimer’s, ALS, progressive supranuclear palsy, Parkinson’s, Lewy body dementia, some types of frontotemporal dementia, Huntington’s, [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/J2uLG6 | 16:50 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Portugal: +2362 cases (now 879557), +4 deaths (now 17096) since 23 hours ago — Germany: +319 cases (now 3.7 million) since 23 hours ago | 17:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from LitCovid: (news): The NLRP3 inflammasome and COVID-19: Activation, pathogenesis and therapeutic strategies. → https://is.gd/8aFkl7 | 17:12 |
| justasarsbro | finally some media actually understood the findings in that brain image study: | 17:31 |
| justasarsbro | the particularly important thing about this data is that it was generated using subjects as their own “control” because there were images available from before they contracted Covid to use as a comparison. Further, this kind of “longitudinal” analysis allowed them to discover something else they might not have otherwise: people who were | 17:31 |
| justasarsbro | diagnosed with Covid had a smaller thalamus to begin with than those who did not. | 17:31 |
| justasarsbro | Without having access to brain images of people before they got Covid, one would have concluded that Covid infections lead to the loss of thalamic neurons. But in fact they found that all those who got Covid already had smaller thalamic regions before the infection, so this has nothing to do with the infection itself. Of course, it does raise the | 17:31 |
| justasarsbro | question as to whether people with a smaller thalamus are more susceptible to Covid or it just an odd association without any relevant causal relationship | 17:31 |
| justasarsbro | .title https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-06-24/is-covid-s-impact-on-the-brain-as-alarming-as-it-sounds | 17:32 |
| Brainstorm | justasarsbro: From www.bloomberg.com: Bloomberg - Are you a robot? | 17:32 |
| justasarsbro | * Is Covid’s Impact on the Brain as Alarming as It Sounds? | 17:32 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Iraq: +7300 cases (now 1.3 million), +30 deaths (now 17186) since a day ago | 17:39 |
| Jigsy | %cases UK | 17:39 |
| Brainstorm | Jigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 4.8 million confirmed cases (7.2% of the population) and 128252 deaths (2.7% of cases) as of 10 hours ago. 211.2 million tests were performed (2.3% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 17:39 |
| Jigsy | Cases are back on the up and up because people are morons. | 17:39 |
| justasarsbro | did bojo decide if the restrictions will be lifted 2 weeks early or not? | 17:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from WebMD: Could the 'Mono' Virus Be Driving Long-Haul COVID?: Some folks suffering COVID long-haul symptoms might actually be experiencing an attack of fatigue-inducing Epstein-Barr virus (EBV). → https://is.gd/ZZeTIo | 17:44 |
| * Jigsy shrugs. | 17:44 | |
| Jigsy | I just know people will be "Summer, who! Fuck restrictions." | 17:45 |
| Jigsy | Then be wondering why they got sick in two weeks. | 17:45 |
| justasarsbro | well, you should be close to herd immunity, total from infections and vaccinations, even with indian variants higher R | 17:47 |
| justasarsbro | so eventually the cases will turn down, no matter what | 17:47 |
| justasarsbro | unless some new variant with more immune evasion appears | 17:47 |
| Jigsy | Someone was telling me about some Polish variant(?) which is immune to all the vaccines. | 17:47 |
| justasarsbro | not many cases of AV.1 there (its more evasive) | 17:50 |
| justasarsbro | .title https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers/variants-distribution-of-cases-data | 17:50 |
| Brainstorm | justasarsbro: From www.gov.uk: Variants: distribution of cases data, 20 May 2021 - GOV.UK | 17:50 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57643694 | 17:58 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: At 2021-06-30 02:22:49 UTC, LjL told you: The paper on neutralizing antibody reduction with B.1.617.2 (and with AZ compared to BNT) that I was referring to last night was https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.23.21259327v1 | 17:58 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.bbc.co.uk: Covid-19: End of England's Covid rules still set for 19 July - BBC News | 17:58 |
| LjL-Matrix | justasarsbro: that's correct AFAIK with regard to the brain scan study, but I also thought they found other associations aside from the thalamus which were NOT already there before these people got COVID | 17:58 |
| nixonix | thanks ljl | 17:59 |
| nixonix | ok, ill check the brain image paper again later | 18:00 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +33658 cases (now 4.8 million) since 23 hours ago — Myanmar: +1580 cases (now 157277), +14 deaths (now 3334) since 23 hours ago | 18:04 |
| nixonix | S1 found in non-classical monocytes over year of infection among long haulers | 18:13 |
| nixonix | so is it due to phagocytes getting rid of infected cells or because they express ace2 and were target of the virus? | 18:13 |
| nixonix | and then turn to non-classical monocytes and somehow S1 stays intact for over a year | 18:14 |
| nixonix | or is it because theres virus still left in the body, and those non-classical monocytes keep destroying infected cells for over a year (fc mediated phagocytosis)? | 18:15 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.25.449905v1.full | 18:15 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.biorxiv.org: Persistence of SARS CoV-2 S1 Protein in CD16+ Monocytes in Post-Acute Sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) Up to 15 Months Post-Infection | bioRxiv | 18:15 |
| genera | and that does not happen with the other CoV ? | 18:22 |
| nixonix | common cold coronas? good question, but i bet nobody knows | 18:27 |
| Krey[m] | o.o | 18:28 |
| genera | ya something must be different with SARS2. or it is not. | 18:29 |
| Krey[m] | what's s1 | 18:29 |
| genera | first half of S | 18:29 |
| genera | spike protein | 18:29 |
| genera | i guess | 18:29 |
| nixonix | maybe they should now study more closely those common cold betacoronaviruses, OC43 and HKU1, to see whats different and whats the same | 18:39 |
| nixonix | on top of whats already known about them | 18:39 |
| nixonix | meaning their action in the body | 18:40 |
| nixonix | then when they see whats different with sars1, those are most likely the things requiring more attention | 18:41 |
| nixonix | s1 is the part after furin cleavage site, containing receptor binding domain | 18:43 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41401-020-0485-4 | 18:43 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.nature.com: Structural and functional properties of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein: potential antivirus drug development for COVID-19 | Acta Pharmacologica Sinica | 18:43 |
| nixonix | you guys want good news or bad news? | 18:51 |
| nixonix | k, good news then. long sick leaves for long haulers | 18:51 |
| nixonix | .title https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-021-11013-2#Sec3 | 18:51 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com: Patterns and predictors of sick leave after Covid-19 and long Covid in a national Swedish cohort | BMC Public Health | Full Text | 18:51 |
| nixonix | .title https://sciencenorway.no/covid19/norwegian-study-more-than-half-of-young-people-with-mild-covid-19-infections-experienced-long-covid/1880560 | 18:51 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From sciencenorway.no: Norwegian study: More than half of young people with mild Covid-19 infections experienced Long Covid | 18:51 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-57667163 | 19:01 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.bbc.com: Football linked to 2,000 Scottish Covid cases - BBC News | 19:01 |
| de-facto | Newest B.1.617.2 stats in Germany: 36.7% | 19:02 |
| de-facto | source: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/DESH/Bericht_VOC_2021-06-30.pdf?__blob=publicationFile | 19:02 |
| de-facto | i was guessing 35% few days ago | 19:02 |
| de-facto | since those numbers have some delay i guess right now its taking over, becoming the dominant variant | 19:03 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/cpDKDCq https://i.imgur.com/XBp4kMR.png src: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/DESH/Bericht_VOC_2021-06-30.pdf?__blob=publicationFile | 19:05 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID Germany: Evolution of SARS-CoV-2-VoCs 2021-06-30 - Album on Imgur | 19:05 |
| de-facto | this is bad | 19:05 |
| de-facto | seems my extrapolation is just about correct | 19:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: NHS plans booster jab for those 50 and over before winter: The UK's vaccine committee says winter could see spikes in flu and Covid, putting pressure on the NHS. → https://is.gd/M93qly | 19:08 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +776 cases (now 4.3 million), +24 deaths (now 127566) since 23 hours ago | 19:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from ScienceMag: [Research Articles] Antibodies elicited by mRNA-1273 vaccination bind more broadly to the receptor binding domain than do those from SARS-CoV-2 infection: The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants with mutations in key antibody epitopes has raised concerns that antigenic evolution could [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/BtSm98 | 20:10 |
| de-facto | what is C.36.3 Lineage? its also in the rise in Germany | 20:13 |
| de-facto | .title https://cov-lineages.org/lineages/lineage_C.36.3.html | 20:13 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From cov-lineages.org: PANGO lineages | 20:13 |
| de-facto | .title https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=C.36.3&selected=DEU&loc=DEU | 20:13 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From outbreak.info: outbreak.info | 20:13 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Morocco: +776 cases (now 531361), +4 deaths (now 9296) since a day ago — Switzerland: +1 deaths (now 10891) since 5 hours ago | 20:39 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Il Presidente Draghi all’Accademia dei Lincei ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/il-presidente-draghi-all-accademia-dei-lincei/17308 ) | 20:41 | |
| LjL | <Brainstorm> Updates for United Kingdom: +33658 cases (now 4.8 million) since 23 hours ago | 20:43 |
| LjL | really? | 20:43 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Recent Commits to links:master: Remove dead UK tracker from Guardian ( https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/808dc06b7060eefbd278a53489107fa11e450fb7 ) | 20:48 | |
| Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Remove dead UK tracker from Guardian → https://is.gd/ttyMJU | 20:53 |
| de-facto | ooof | 20:56 |
| Arsanerit | hello | 20:56 |
| de-facto | LjL, official numbers i guess are on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ | 20:57 |
| de-facto | Hey Arsanerit how is it going? | 20:57 |
| Arsanerit | I am well. I longer feel any effect from my second dose of Comirnaty® from last Sunday morning. | 21:01 |
| Arsanerit | However, the straps on my Aura 3M FFP2 masks keep breaking. | 21:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: Jim Wappes: COVID-19 Scan for Jun 30, 2021 → https://is.gd/wgW7Ph | 21:03 |
| de-facto | nice to hear that :) | 21:04 |
| Arsanerit | There is no link between the vaccination and the straps breaking. | 21:06 |
| de-facto | regarding Aura, cant you replace with cuff elastic and metal camps? | 21:06 |
| Arsanerit | I probably could, but so far I haven't bothered to spend much time fixing a product that isn't really designed to be reused much to begin with. | 21:08 |
| de-facto | yeah | 21:09 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Comunicato stampa del Consiglio dei Ministri n. 26 ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/comunicato-stampa-del-consiglio-dei-ministri-n-26/17309 ) | 21:11 | |
| de-facto | Arsanerit, 36.7% Delta in Germany | 21:12 |
| Arsanerit | hm, not more? | 21:12 |
| de-facto | BW 32%, BY 25%, BE 41%, BB 44%, HB 71%, HH 53%, HE 50%, MV 71%, NI 39%, NW 29%, RP 46%, SA 0%, SN 47%, ST 0%, SH 52%, TH 20% | 21:12 |
| Arsanerit | I thought it'd be more by now | 21:12 |
| Arsanerit | ST 0%? Based on what sample size? | 21:12 |
| de-facto | it probably is dominant by now, just because RKI data got delay | 21:12 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/cpDKDCq https://i.imgur.com/XBp4kMR.png src: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/DESH/Bericht_VOC_2021-06-30.pdf?__blob=publicationFile | 21:12 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID Germany: Evolution of SARS-CoV-2-VoCs 2021-06-30 - Album on Imgur | 21:12 |
| Arsanerit | ST = Sachsen Anhalt? | 21:13 |
| de-facto | yup | 21:13 |
| Arsanerit | Don't they have almost no cases at all? | 21:13 |
| de-facto | page 16 | 21:13 |
| Arsanerit | Tal der Viruslosen | 21:13 |
| Arsanerit | from corona.rki.de it appears 2/3rd of Landkreise in Sachen Anhalt reported 0 cases in past 7 days, so probably sample size very small | 21:14 |
| Arsanerit | High rate for MV is interesting considering they have an inzidenz of 1.6 there (Sachsen-Anhalt: 1.0), very low. | 21:15 |
| Arsanerit | So I gather the uncertainty on those numbers must be huge due to small sample size | 21:15 |
| Arsanerit | Are there uncertainties reported on those figures? | 21:16 |
| de-facto | yes but the trend is pretty clear, we have R(B.1.617.2) ~ 1.3 (from last report, i have to recalculate from this one that came out today), so just like in UK | 21:16 |
| de-facto | no uncertainty reporting | 21:17 |
| de-facto | its based on around 10% cases or such | 21:17 |
| de-facto | 15% even | 21:17 |
| de-facto | the only other variant that i can see increasing is C.36.3 (whatever that is) | 21:18 |
| de-facto | but very small numbers, so even more uncertainty | 21:18 |
| LjL | Arsanerit: I really don't understand how the Aura strap can be so subpar compared to the rest of the mask | 21:19 |
| LjL | The very first mask I got had the most awesome straps | 21:19 |
| LjL | But they're hard to describe, I've thrown it away by now | 21:19 |
| de-facto | well and maybe Gamma too | 21:19 |
| LjL | They went behind the head like the Aura but they weren't two separate straps, rather one band that was free to move in *holes* in the sides of the mask, so you'd first move it all to one side to wear it easily (not like those Aura where you have to be careful not to get hurt), then you make it slip so you can wear the top-of-head pary | 21:21 |
| LjL | I never spellcheck the last word I type before pressing enter ;( | 21:21 |
| Arsanerit | We bought the Aura because it was best in test at https://www.test.de/Masken-Welcher-Mund-Nasen-Schutz-hilft-am-besten-gegen-Corona-5692592-5722124/ | 21:22 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Mozambique: +576 cases (now 76404), +6 deaths (now 878) since 18 hours ago | 21:35 |
| LjL | Arsanerit: it's a very good mask for sure. Just those bands are silly and don't match the level of the mask | 21:35 |
| nixonix | uk: There have been 109 cases of VUI-21MAY-02 dispersed across the country to date. The C.36.3 variant was first detected in Thailand, in cases who had travelled from Egypt | 21:50 |
| nixonix | it seems to have L452R | 21:51 |
| Arsanerit | C.36.3? Is that new? | 21:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from WebMD: Long-Haul COVID Brings Long Road to Recovery: Some people with COVID-19 are having symptoms for more than 4 weeks after infection. In some cases, they start to feel better and then have a setback. Here's what we know. → https://is.gd/K7Zzfy | 21:55 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thai-govt-claims-c-36-3-strain-of-covid-19-is-not-a-thai-variant-and-not-of-concern/ | 21:55 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.thaipbsworld.com: Thai Govt. claims C.36.3 strain of COVID-19 is not a "Thai variant" and not of concern | Thai PBS World : The latest Thai news in English, News Headlines, World News and News Broadcasts in both Thai [...] | 21:55 |
| nixonix | so we could perhaps call it "not a thai variant"? | 21:56 |
| Arsanerit | theta | 21:56 |
| nixonix | "not a thai variant and not of concern" | 21:56 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for South Africa: +19506 cases (now 2.0 million), +383 deaths (now 60647) since a day ago — Spain: +9227 cases (now 3.8 million), +46 deaths (now 80875) since a day ago — Yukon, Canada: +78 cases (now 342), +1 deaths (now 5) since 3 days ago — Canada: +1026 cases (now 1.4 million) since 23 hours ago | 22:00 |
| nixonix | there used to be a finnish variant. note, that we included Fin to its name, like a proud father. Fin-796H | 22:00 |
| nixonix | but it wasnt a novel variant, we then found out :( | 22:00 |
| nixonix | i wonder if ebola river is good fishing | 22:01 |
| nixonix | ebola was first found in a city near another river, 111 km from ebola river | 22:04 |
| de-facto | Crunching the new RKI data for Germany from today (based on serial time of 4d): R(B.1.1.7) = 0.88, R(B.1.617.2) = 1.27, hence T0.5(B.1.1.7) ~ 22d and T2(B.1.617.2) ~ 12d | 22:17 |
| tsundere | what are Non-classical monocytes? | 22:19 |
| de-facto | nixonix, according to RKI C.36.3 got mutations Q677H, A899S, D614G, R346S L452R, W152R, S12F, del69/70 | 22:19 |
| de-facto | apart from Gamma the one that also slightly grows in Germany, but probably soon a lockdown due to Delta will make it vanish | 22:20 |
| de-facto | doubling each 12d that is not acceptable | 22:21 |
| de-facto | (Delta) | 22:21 |
| nixonix | classical monocytes have just a short life, and consist around 85% of them if i recall. some of them mature to intermediate monocytes, and then to non-classical type, expressing a different ratio of surface proteins (C14 and C16 from memory), and will have a different role | 22:23 |
| nixonix | *CD14 and CD16 | 22:24 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Virologische_Basisdaten_Varianten_Nomenklatur.html | 22:29 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.rki.de: RKI - Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 - Anwendung der SARS-CoV-2 Varianten Nomenklatur der WHO durch das RKI | 22:29 |
| nixonix | some weird experiments: | 22:36 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.cell.com/cell-reports/fulltext/S2211-1247(21)00762-2 | 22:36 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.cell.com: Systematic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 infection of an ACE2-negative human airway cell: Cell Reports | 22:36 |
| de-facto | ok updated my extrapolation based on data from week 15 on (2021-04-18) and the RKI report for VoCs from today | 22:44 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/YJdkVvo https://i.imgur.com/2xIvTDK.png src: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/DESH/Bericht_VOC_2021-06-30.pdf?__blob=publicationFile | 22:44 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID Germany: SARS-CoV-2-VoCs B.1.1.7 and B.1.617.2 - Album on Imgur | 22:44 |
| nixonix | what were those mutations increasing syncytia, the cell fusion? it would increase lung damage, according to an older study | 22:44 |
| de-facto | Minimum of incidence 2021-06-13 and crossover 2021-06-20 | 22:45 |
| nixonix | was it that extra substitution in indian "double mutant"? | 22:45 |
| nixonix | i mean triple... the latest one anyway, AV.1 was it | 22:45 |
| Arsanerit | The Bundesnotbremse expires in less than 90 minutes, what lockdown due to Delta are you talking about? | 22:46 |
| Arsanerit | 2021-06-13 is in the past | 22:46 |
| de-facto | Arsanerit, sorry i meant Minimum of incidence 2021-07-13 and crossover 2021-07-20 | 22:47 |
| de-facto | you can see it at the two black lines in the extrapolation | 22:47 |
| de-facto | the green curve is the expected daily incidence as sum of both dominant vocs | 22:47 |
| Arsanerit | how does the ongoing vaccination campaign affect this? | 22:49 |
| nixonix | also n protein causes lung injury in murine models. so better aspirate those whole virus vaccines... or forgettabout them | 22:49 |
| de-facto | but those lab data from table 5 probably got significant delay, so maybe its 2 weeks earlier? | 22:49 |
| de-facto | Arsanerit, that is quite difficult to predict, still working on that part | 22:50 |
| Arsanerit | Can R(B.1.617.2) be brought below 1 through vaccinations alone? I read on tagesschau.de today that 85% or so of Germans (maybe of German adults?) wants to get vaccinated. | 22:51 |
| de-facto | problem is to predict vaccinations (e.g. logistic function or such) and from that the impact on reproduction (efficacy to prevent *creation* of new cases compared to non-vaccinated) | 22:51 |
| de-facto | thats the question, i think not without NPIs | 22:52 |
| Arsanerit | What's NPI? | 22:52 |
| de-facto | if R0(B.617.2) really would be ~ 6 | 22:52 |
| de-facto | non-pharmaceutical-interventions | 22:52 |
| Arsanerit | ok | 22:52 |
| de-facto | i need some guess on the efficacy to prevent new cases | 22:53 |
| de-facto | i only know B162b2 got efficacy to prevent *symptomatic* cases of ~88% | 22:53 |
| de-facto | but i guess that means there also can be some asymptomatic cases that cause new infections | 22:53 |
| de-facto | in the vaccinated | 22:54 |
| de-facto | hence the efficacy of preventing new cases must be less than 88% if such scenarios happen | 22:54 |
| nixonix | what are you wondering about vaccination, some kind of geographical or age group coordination? | 22:54 |
| nixonix | like eg in norway they started, after vaccinating over 50 yo or so, vaccinate 45-49 and 16-24 yo or something like that, at the same time | 22:55 |
| Arsanerit | Germany is now vaccinating anyone above 16 I think | 22:55 |
| nixonix | supposedly because those young age groups will spread it more, but at the same time continuing from those more at risk | 22:55 |
| de-facto | i assumed around since 16.5% of population is less than 18 years they would not get vaccinated, hence i fit a logistic function for vaccinations(t) = (1 - 0.165) / (1 + 359 Exp[-t/32.3434]); that saturates at 0.865 | 22:56 |
| nixonix | there was an interesting study recently, where they made a multi-group model to see, if that type of vacc coordination would be efficient for reducing infections and/or mitigating damage | 22:56 |
| de-facto | yet how to make a factor out of that for reproduction? for that i need to know how well the vaccine can prevent transmission | 22:57 |
| nixonix | the result was, it didnt matter much if there wasnt much cases, but it did matter, if there were a lot. in their model anyway | 22:57 |
| de-facto | something like secondary attack rate in households with delta on BNT or such | 22:57 |
| Arsanerit | they don't get vaccinated but they also only very rarely get seriously sick, so if it mainly spreads among kids it's not so much of a problem, as long as the ones for which it is a problem are vaccinated or otherwise have antibodies (which the vaccine-refusers will have sooner or later)? | 22:57 |
| nixonix | they modelled it for finland, using mobile data. i was thinking that maybe chinese with their spy softwares could make something usefull, like representing real society and infection chains | 22:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: Myocarditis detailed in 30 patients after mRNA COVID vaccines: Lianna Matt McLernon | News Writer | CIDRAP News Jun 30, 2021 JAMA Cardiology reports describe cases shortly after Pfizer, Moderna shots. → https://is.gd/0gkdYs | 22:58 |
| nixonix | but even if it isnt accurate at all, those simulations might tell results like above. just not useful to predict how the epidemic was going to develop | 22:58 |
| nixonix | .title https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.11562 | 22:59 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From arxiv.org: [2105.11562] Adaptive and optimized COVID-19 vaccination strategies across geographical regions and age groups | 22:59 |
| de-facto | interesting | 23:02 |
| de-facto | very nice paper | 23:05 |
| nixonix | cdc, myocarditis from mrna vaccines https://imgur.com/a/uvWny8V | 23:12 |
| de-facto | nice, is US exposure risk compareble to EU? | 23:15 |
| nixonix | oh, i was going to correct couple of errors, i wrote yesterday here | 23:15 |
| de-facto | i guess more or less the same right now? | 23:15 |
| nixonix | one was, i thought israel hadnt started to vaccinate 12-15 yo yet. they have, but the participating wasnt great at first, because so few cases and parents wanted to wait and see, if everything goes well in usa | 23:16 |
| nixonix | then the cases went up in schools, and apparently now they success has been much better | 23:16 |
| de-facto | cases went up in israel by one order of magnitude in the last weeks | 23:17 |
| nixonix | they used 120 days. if they used eg 30, the ratios would be different (myocarditis) | 23:17 |
| de-facto | probably because of delta in the young, someone did not stick to quarantine or such and imported it | 23:17 |
| de-facto | nixonix, duration for what is 120d? | 23:19 |
| de-facto | time window for estimating benefit to risk ratio? | 23:20 |
| nixonix | "Predicted cases prevented vs. myocarditis cases for every million second dose vaccinations over 120 days" | 23:21 |
| nixonix | like it naturally depending on state of epidemic, the risk of getting the infection | 23:21 |
| nixonix | but also the risk of getting myocarditis. like its way higher than backround if you look at the week after 2nd dose. but much lower over a year | 23:22 |
| nixonix | anyways, do you have that link of overlaying s1 data? id like to look at it again | 23:23 |
| nixonix | found: https://i.imgur.com/vvH53DO.png | 23:28 |
| nixonix | ok, the peak of S1 is later than myocardites in VAERS. but the reaction to it could become early, if it comes, despite s1 levels arent at top yet. so it doesnt exclude s1, eg in pulmonary circulation, necessarily | 23:31 |
| nixonix | and could even be a thing, that aspirations might prevent, if its s1 induced | 23:32 |
| de-facto | yes but the S1 peak is after 1st dose (no such peak after second dose) and the myocarditis peak is after 2nd dose | 23:33 |
| nixonix | while the mechanism could still be through immune reaction to the s1. and its different in different tissues. eg in heart or in pulmonary circulation it could induce something | 23:33 |
| de-facto | maybe but they said no s1 after 2nd dose detectable | 23:34 |
| nixonix | yeah, but if its an immune reaction to s1, it could be worse when exposed the second time | 23:34 |
| nixonix | but if s1 wasnt detectable after 2nd, that would exclude it then... | 23:34 |
| de-facto | from the paper "After the second vaccine dose, no S1 or spike was detectable, and both antigens remained undetectable through day 56." at https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciab465/6279075 | 23:36 |
| nixonix | unless... why is it undetectable after the 2nd jab? because their assay doesnt detect it when its peppered with antibodies | 23:36 |
| nixonix | which would prob prevent adverse effects too, though... | 23:36 |
| de-facto | yeah probably | 23:37 |
| nixonix | im trying to make it a culprit, but it seems to be hard... | 23:37 |
| de-facto | but what is happening in 2nd dose mainly in young men | 23:37 |
| de-facto | it must be something specific to 2nd dose in young men but not in young women | 23:37 |
| nixonix | different immune reaction. whether s1 induced or not | 23:37 |
| nixonix | but maybe not | 23:38 |
| nixonix | they could compare myocarditis cases, among young men, between areas that do aspiration an areas taht dont | 23:39 |
| de-facto | yeah but why is it only 2nd jab then? | 23:39 |
| de-facto | *mainly | 23:39 |
| nixonix | stronger immune reaction then (and suggesting its not s1) | 23:39 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Zimbabwe: +1807 cases (now 49864), +28 deaths (now 1789) since 20 hours ago | 23:39 |
| de-facto | it must be something immune system (involved) because that is the main difference between 1st and 2nd | 23:40 |
| de-facto | and something that differentiates the immune reaction on 2nd shot between men and women | 23:40 |
| de-facto | i dont have any idea about the medicine of the heart | 23:41 |
| de-facto | i only know it also happens for other viral infections, not sure if young men are also overexposed there | 23:41 |
| de-facto | and is also very common in COVID cases, even mild it seems | 23:42 |
| nixonix | it could be something they have already. some genetic suspectibility | 23:43 |
| de-facto | (not sure if its the same type of myocarditis or severity, only that there are papers about it happening to a lot of COVID cases) | 23:43 |
| nixonix | that could cause them myocarditis also from some viral infection more easily too. sars2 or not | 23:43 |
| de-facto | for the very rare vaccine induced cases, yeah possibly, would be interesting to see if it happens for twins with same genetics | 23:44 |
| nixonix | if its something like that, then it would make sars2 more dangerous to them, so the protective effect of mrna vaccine would be greater for them | 23:44 |
| de-facto | but why does it mainly happen with mRNA vaccines? (does it?) | 23:45 |
| de-facto | maybe it also has something to do with LNPs? | 23:45 |
| de-facto | (wild speculation, i dont know any of such) | 23:45 |
| nixonix | cholesterol in lnp? | 23:46 |
| de-facto | i would like to read more about the mobility and distribution function of LNPs | 23:46 |
| de-facto | yes | 23:46 |
| nixonix | it could cause immune reactions for some | 23:46 |
| de-facto | there is cholesterol in LNPs | 23:46 |
| nixonix | they could replace it | 23:46 |
| de-facto | to make it dock to ApoE | 23:47 |
| de-facto | not sure what it could have to do with the heart though | 23:47 |
| de-facto | would need to have a list of cellular surface receptors for those parts that get inflamed | 23:47 |
| nixonix | could happen because of some pro-inflammatory cytokine response | 23:48 |
| de-facto | (btw disclaimer again: we are discussing out of interest, those myocarditis cases are very rare and i get my 2nd Moderna without hesitation) | 23:48 |
| nixonix | yeah, its a mystery. they are the nice side of this virus. and some of them will be solved in some reasonable timescale, so we can see if our guesses were right | 23:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Opposition lawmakers in Brazil launched a fresh bid Wednesday to impeach President Jair Bolsonaro as more allegations broke of corruption in acquiring coronavirus vaccines to tackle a pandemic he is accused of having criminally mishandled. → https://is.gd/iBmpsI | 23:49 |
| de-facto | for sure we will know more about this soon, its got public interest now | 23:49 |
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