dTal | but there's always a steep first wave, a crash back down, then a gradual climb to a higher level, a flattening off for a brief time, then a continuing of the climb to a second peak, then a dip, then a third peak | 00:01 |
---|---|---|
dTal | compare the UK and Israel: http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom;Israel&byPopulation=yes&logScale=yes&cumulative=no | 00:02 |
dTal | what the heck causes that? | 00:02 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Anguilla: +2 cases (now 111) since 30 days ago | 00:04 |
de-facto | same circumstances leading to same effects, e.g. people become aware, interventions, immunty, variants, seasonality | 00:26 |
de-facto | all such things where countries go through in a similar way cause similar shape of incidence | 00:26 |
de-facto | but yeah i see what you mean, would be interesting to know the details | 00:27 |
nixonix | christmass effects, ppl getting scared and reacting, measures at the same time at many countries, variant timings - and one more: when cases come down, they often seem to flatten for awhile. possibly when tracing starts to work better again | 00:28 |
nixonix | and then finding more of those hidden cases, meaning the official case numbers flatten for awhile while the real cases are still decreasing | 00:28 |
de-facto | maybe an epidemiologist could write the effect on each of those edges | 00:28 |
de-facto | nixonix, he means the same shapes appear at *different* times in many countries | 00:29 |
de-facto | e.g. the UK/Isreal comparison there | 00:29 |
nixonix | yeah some of them are eg because the same variant takes over at the different times. christmas is at the same time for all i think. maybe not for chinese and russians | 00:30 |
de-facto | curves could be made matching by stretching the time axis | 00:30 |
de-facto | yeah i think so too variants and also it burning through specific groups in population | 00:30 |
nixonix | the flattening after peak can happen because of that tracing getting better, whenever that peak happens | 00:31 |
de-facto | because even if herd immunity is not reached, it may be reached in a small subgroup of high contact rate under restrictive conditions | 00:31 |
de-facto | its also containment reacts in similar ways i guess | 00:33 |
de-facto | like "opps we need a lockdown" till incidence comes down | 00:34 |
nixonix | school holidays can have similar effect on curve but a bit different times | 00:34 |
de-facto | i think in the paper i linked before they managed to exactly replicate the incidence curve for Germany with an agent based model | 00:35 |
de-facto | by putting in all the measures etc | 00:35 |
de-facto | .title https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.11129 <-- this one, so maybe each feature of the curve could be linked to something specific, when looking at all the details | 00:36 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From arxiv.org: [2106.11129] The Effectiveness of Strategies to Contain SARS-CoV-2: Testing, Vaccinations, and NPIs | 00:36 |
nixonix | epidemiologist and chief of health security on finnish national health institute just said, that when those soccer fans take a test 72h after they came back from russia, 96% of the positive cases will be found | 00:37 |
nixonix | which is totally false of course | 00:37 |
nixonix | we need to listen less all those epidemiologists... | 00:38 |
nixonix | with their gigo models | 00:38 |
de-facto | i think the first wave is simple: initial import and explosion in that social group along social graphs, then "oops, lockdown" and it coming down, summer stays low in 2020 in most EU countries | 00:39 |
dTal | de-facto: that's what's interesting to me, if this is some kind of highly predictable social phenomenon | 00:39 |
dTal | it suggests that actually we have almost full control over the spread, and we're just being really stupid | 00:40 |
de-facto | the next is the "aah its low, we are over it" and seasonality or such? | 00:40 |
dTal | especially that first little bump on the way up the second wave | 00:40 |
de-facto | i think there is a clear link with "pandemic is over" kind of attitude and immediate emergence of a new wave | 00:40 |
de-facto | so a lot of this probably even is psychology | 00:41 |
nixonix | its proactive political action, when cases come down, we can open up everything, bars, travelling. look, why being worried, even deaths are coming down? its more like a flu now, no need for restrictions anymore | 00:41 |
dTal | almost as if people hesitated when levels climbed as high as the first wave and beyond, then said "fuck it" | 00:41 |
nixonix | -pro +re | 00:41 |
dTal | I remember us talking about modeling the waves as an underdamped dynamical system | 00:42 |
dTal | with politicians mainly looking at the I term when they should be looking at the D term | 00:43 |
nixonix | denmark was interesting, it looked like they invented magic formula in the fall, when they got their case numbers down efficiently. but then it went up again... | 00:43 |
de-facto | yeah Doc modeled that with a circuit even :D | 00:43 |
dTal | so we get these wild oscillations, and we call them "waves" | 00:43 |
nixonix | this was interesting (sci-hub): Herrington, G. (2020). Update to limits to growth: Comparing the World3 model with empirical data | 00:45 |
de-facto | its surely a system with many feedback looks at many timescales, some of them may get modified (both biologically and learning), but others stay the same (i fear stupidity of politicians for example, they dont learn) | 00:46 |
de-facto | *feedback loops | 00:46 |
de-facto | i wonder if we will be able to see soccer matches at the graphs at some point | 00:49 |
de-facto | i guess it depends on how many cases it contributes to overall incidence at that time in a location | 00:50 |
de-facto | e.g if it got an impact of providing 50% of cases or 5% (just as an example) | 00:51 |
nixonix | they sure show up in finland. esp in helsinki, where most of those hooligans were, or those that partied there whole week and got most infections | 00:53 |
nixonix | were *from | 00:54 |
LjL | "99% of New U.S. COVID Hospitalizations, Deaths Occurring Among the Unvaccinated | Health News" not in the UK or Israel though, how's that | 00:54 |
Brainstorm | New from Shane Crotty: @JustinTrudeau: RT by @profshanecrotty: COVID-19 isn’t over... yet. But we can beat it if we all get our second shot. → https://is.gd/U4qF2y | 00:55 |
nixonix | for some reason its very slow to sequence samples in finland. they just sequenced 7 soccer fan samples, those that were in st petersburg. 7/7 indian variant | 00:55 |
nixonix | (and no variant recognizing pcr assays in use - only those were "s-gene positive/negative" shows up) | 00:56 |
de-facto | .title https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/06/22/science.abi4506 | 00:57 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From science.sciencemag.org: Chimeric spike mRNA vaccines protect against Sarbecovirus challenge in mice | Science | 00:57 |
de-facto | universal vaccine? | 00:57 |
de-facto | "Using chimeric spike designs, we demonstrate protection against challenge from SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV-2 B.1.351, bat CoV (Bt-CoV) RsSHC014, and a heterologous Bt-CoV WIV-1 in vulnerable aged mice" | 00:58 |
de-facto | pretty neat approach, super broad antigen stimulation | 01:03 |
de-facto | .title https://uncnews.unc.edu/2021/06/22/coronavirus-vaccine/ | 01:05 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From uncnews.unc.edu: New universal coronavirus vaccine could prevent future pandemics - UNC News : UNC News | 01:05 |
de-facto | i think we need that, more variety in antigen stimulation for raising a broader immunity, so evasion is less likely | 01:07 |
nixonix | yeah they are studying them, but they might not be that efficient than those designed specifically for sars2. maybe using some regions of N for additional recombinant protein | 01:23 |
nixonix | when they think the protection of whole virus vaccine would be more lasting, it must come mostly from antibodies or t-cells recognizing conserved regions of N - those important ones just must be found first | 01:24 |
nixonix | like N has a role in replication, that could be affected with antibodies targetting it. it also activates complement, so the symptoms could be decreased too - or then just use those as therapeutic drug targets | 01:26 |
nixonix | that in the paper is only parts of spike though, a bit like that multiple epitope vax by vaxxinity (the other alzheimer drug developer, which product was less promising than the one they just approved) | 01:28 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Japan offers vaccines to Taiwan-friendly islands in the Pacific → https://is.gd/pFan25 | 01:36 |
nixonix | maybe cells could somehow to be taught to recognize sars2 more easily as an enemy, so their own PKR or endosomal TLR systems could take care of it | 01:37 |
de-facto | havent you linked at some paper or company that unblocks sars-cov-2 evasion of that? | 01:38 |
nixonix | easier said than done, when all the possible cells that virus could target, should be treated. and also if it goes wrong, and they then start to treat something else as an enemy, which they shouldnt | 01:38 |
nixonix | what was that? | 01:38 |
nixonix | or mechanism, something to remind me | 01:39 |
de-facto | trying to remember | 01:40 |
nixonix | was it some clever novel drug, i remember linking something but forgot what type the mechanism was | 01:43 |
de-facto | .title https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1009644 | 01:48 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From journals.plos.org: Manipulation of the unfolded protein response: A pharmacological strategy against coronavirus infection | 01:48 |
Krey[m] | What can you measure from a droplet of blood excluding glucose, blood gravity and amount of red cells | 01:50 |
de-facto | almost everything | 01:51 |
Krey[m] | like what! | 01:51 |
nixonix | if it was about evading innate immune system, possible targets could be nsp10, 14, 15, 16 | 01:51 |
* Krey[m] got this poke-y pen with his glucometer that makes it painless to get a blood droplet and wants to learn how to process these in lab | 01:51 | |
de-facto | "Over-expression of the SARS-CoV-2 ORF8 or S proteins alone is itself sufficient to induce the UPR. Remarkably, pharmacological inhibition of the UPR greatly reduced the replication of both MHV and SARS-CoV-2, revealing the importance of this pathway for successful coronavirus replication. This was particularly striking when both IRE1α and ATF6 branches of the UPR were inhibited, reducing SARS-CoV-2 virion release (~1,000-fold)." | 01:52 |
Krey[m] | it literally just gives me a blood droplet and then seals o.o it's amazing | 01:52 |
LjL | yes, a lancet, like the journal | 01:53 |
nixonix | theranos can find out whatever their want from that droplet | 01:53 |
Krey[m] | o.o | 01:53 |
de-facto | there was a company trying to do all diagnosis from a tiny drop of blood, they achieved that they could diagnose almost everything, but the problem was the large fluctuations in the samples made it unreliable | 01:54 |
de-facto | ah yeah exactly that company that nixonix mentioned | 01:54 |
Krey[m] | that sounds amazing o.o | 01:54 |
de-facto | if you can stabilize and make it reliable, yes | 01:55 |
nixonix | yeah, they got lots of financing | 01:55 |
de-facto | but if the results are unreliable. hmm | 01:55 |
Krey[m] | > Theranos: How Elizabeth Holmes Fooled Silicon Valley | 01:55 |
Krey[m] | Why do i get hits like this on duckduckgo when i search for theranos | 01:55 |
nixonix | all lies, it works! | 01:55 |
de-facto | lol :D | 01:55 |
Krey[m] | o.o | 01:55 |
Krey[m] | > Theranos (/ˈθɛrənoʊs/) was an American privately held health technology corporation.[2] It was initially touted as a breakthrough technology company, with claims of having devised blood tests that required only very small amounts of blood and could be performed very rapidly using small automated devices the company had developed. However, these claims were later proven to be false.[3][4][5] | 01:56 |
Krey[m] | aww man u.u | 01:56 |
Krey[m] | that was exactly my idea too u.u dammit | 01:57 |
de-facto | btw there are also companies sequencing your genome and tell you all kinds of things about it, like where your ancestors come from, what likelihood of diseases you got, susceptibilities, maybe also capabilities etc pp | 01:57 |
Krey[m] | hmm.. maybe i can make that work through the power of open-hardware~ | 01:57 |
Krey[m] | de-facto: ye i know x.x but they have privacy issus | 01:58 |
de-facto | so maybe at some day they also could tell you how susceptible you would be for things like severe COVID progression etc | 01:58 |
Krey[m] | o.o | 01:58 |
de-facto | and maybe they also would sell you the solution in form of personalized mRNA treatment :D | 01:58 |
de-facto | i guess that would be a good marketing model, discover peoples risks and try to fix them | 01:59 |
* Krey[m] writes down notes | 01:59 | |
nixonix | .title https://www.forbes.com/sites/victoriaforster/2020/01/20/a-year-ago-an-israeli-research-group-said-they-would-cure-cancer-within-a-year-did-they-do-it/ | 01:59 |
Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.forbes.com: A Year Ago, An Israeli Research Group Said They Would Cure Cancer Within A Year. Did They Do It? | 01:59 |
Mikaela | did they? | 02:01 |
Krey[m] | no bcs my dog had cancer and no super jew with magic power saved him from operation | 02:01 |
de-facto | its classified :D | 02:01 |
de-facto | (bad joke) | 02:02 |
Krey[m] | not a joke poor doggo u.u still recovering from it | 02:02 |
de-facto | if they cured cancer and it would be real they would be very famous by now i assume | 02:03 |
de-facto | btw afaik that was the goal for the platforms that were developed for the mRNA vaccines, curing cancer by the immune system | 02:04 |
de-facto | idk how it exactly is supposed to work, probably identifying some individual antigen on cancer cells and teaching the immune system via mRNA vaccine to attack that specific antigen (that should not appear anywhere else)? | 02:05 |
de-facto | yet i guess that is the challenge, is there such an antigen that is specific enough to only target the cancer cells and would that not drift away easily, how diverse are they etc | 02:06 |
de-facto | yeah | 02:09 |
de-facto | .title https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28101688/ | 02:09 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov: mRNA Cancer Vaccines - PubMed | 02:09 |
nixonix | yeah i remember that UPR drug or two drug combo, it wasnt about immune evasion, but sars2 using cells UPR pathway to replicate, which could be blocked or inhibited | 02:19 |
nixonix | idk if there would be similar problems like preventing evasion somehow, so that you should be able to distribute the drug to all the possible cells that could be infected | 02:20 |
nixonix | but vaccines are the most important. would be nice if there was a cheap pill you could take when you test positive or get sars2-like symptoms. like magic | 02:22 |
nixonix | .title https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/17/health/covid-pill-antiviral.html | 02:23 |
Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.nytimes.com: A Pill to Treat Covid-19? The U.S. Is Betting on It. - The New York Times | 02:23 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): China_Flu: Fake COVID-19 vaccines are being sold online, warns Interpol → https://is.gd/YJ6Fy4 | 02:28 |
nixonix | here was about mrna used for cancer treatment, along with some other possibilities: | 02:31 |
nixonix | .title https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/06/29/what-mrna-is-good-for-and-what-it-maybe-isnt | 02:32 |
Brainstorm | nixonix: From blogs.sciencemag.org: What mRNA is Good For, And What It Maybe Isn’t | In the Pipeline | 02:32 |
Brainstorm | Updates for France: +30 deaths (now 111205) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +443 cases (now 1.7 million), +3 deaths (now 17891) since 20 hours ago — Canada: +225 cases (now 1.4 million) since 20 hours ago — United Kingdom: +19 deaths (now 128308) since 20 hours ago | 02:33 |
nixonix | .title https://riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/miscellaneous/covid-19/brazilian-health-regulator-alerts-to-risks-of-indiscriminate-use-of-paracetamol-after-covid-vaccination/ | 02:41 |
Brainstorm | nixonix: From riotimesonline.com: ANVISA warns of risks of indiscriminate use of paracetamol after Covid-19 vaccination | The Rio Times | 02:41 |
Krey[m] | what's indiscriminate use | 02:41 |
pwr22 | Overdosing from the sounds of it | 02:49 |
nixonix | yeah, i thought it was ment to be some risk specifically after vaccine, but it seems just normal paracetamol consern - unrelated to vaccine. it confused me, and shouldnt have posted | 02:50 |
nixonix | paracetamol overdose limit is very close to normal dose | 02:51 |
nixonix | 3g vs 500mg or something like that i think | 02:52 |
LjL | i wouldn't take more than 1000mg a day without a very good reason | 02:52 |
LjL | and not for many days | 02:52 |
LjL | it's a very good painkiller with few side effects when used reasonably | 02:52 |
LjL | but overdoing on paracetamol is shitty | 02:52 |
LjL | overdosing* | 02:52 |
nixonix | i wonder how many grams i took it once, along with several grams of ibu, when i had a wisdom tooth pain once | 02:53 |
nixonix | nothing happened, so i guess im immune! | 02:53 |
nixonix | funny there only seem to be severe adverse effects reported from western vaccines... | 02:55 |
nixonix | maybe the other ones are just saline water | 02:55 |
pwr22 | People in the UK routinely take 4g a day | 02:56 |
LjL | well, i have a suggestion: don't | 02:56 |
LjL | i know it's the upper end of the "okay" dosage, but it really is uncomfortably high | 02:57 |
pwr22 | I mean that if it was a problem it would be obvious in our population | 02:58 |
LjL | well i'm sure those people ANVISA is warning take more | 02:58 |
LjL | but 4g is still an amount that is only allowed here under medical supervision | 02:58 |
pwr22 | Yeah, the main problem is people just taking them with no regards for timing of dosing | 02:59 |
pwr22 | Several times in my life I've been taking 4g a day for a long time and my liver tests always came back fine | 02:59 |
nixonix | covaxin inactivated vaccine by bharat biotech (there was also concerns for not showing properly it was fully inactivated, and also some corruption scheme): | 03:00 |
nixonix | Anvisa cited as main concerns the incomplete phase III study, a short 45-day follow-up, which should be 60 days to meet the international consensus, and a novel imidazoquinoline adjuvant that may increase the chance of developing an autoimmune disease | 03:00 |
pwr22 | Ironically now my liver looks like it's mildly unhappy I don't really take any ha ha | 03:00 |
nixonix | adjuvants are risky. thats why cdc had 12 month safety data requirement for adjuvanted vaccines (the normal was 6 months pre sars2) | 03:00 |
pwr22 | So I don't agree that it's particularly dangerous at these dosages | 03:01 |
Win7ine | pwr22 4g of what? sorry missed | 03:01 |
pwr22 | Once again, because of it was then it would be obvious at population level | 03:01 |
pwr22 | Win7ine paracetamol, every four hours 1g, not more than 4 times in 24 hours | 03:02 |
nixonix | ah 1g was standard dose, not 500mg as i thought (ive rarely used it, im a dapper dan man. i mean ibu man) | 03:03 |
Win7ine | ok, I think 4g is the absolute max dose for adult. But why are you taking so much? It is more of a kidney hog than liver. | 03:03 |
pwr22 | I mean you can take 1 or 2 500mg tablets | 03:03 |
pwr22 | For some back pain I had recently if I didn't take 1g regularly every four hours it was a regret | 03:04 |
pwr22 | It's definitely worse on your liver than your kidneys | 03:04 |
pwr22 | It's liver damage / failure it will cause in overdose | 03:05 |
Win7ine | Just numbing your pain is not going to cure it. Was it diagnosed properly? | 03:05 |
pwr22 | It was random back pain, rest and painkillers is the recommended treatment for it | 03:06 |
pwr22 | It was very bad | 03:06 |
pwr22 | I took painkillers so I could get on with life and do the gentle exercise that is also advised | 03:07 |
pwr22 | The size I took is literally a dose of says you can take on the box here 🤦♂️ | 03:07 |
nixonix | from may: https://en.tempo.co/read/1464398/indonesia-logs-229-serious-adverse-events-after-covid-19-vaccination | 03:07 |
nixonix | .title | 03:07 |
Brainstorm | nixonix: From en.tempo.co: Indonesia Logs 229 Serious Adverse Events after Covid-19 Vaccination - Sci en.tempo.co | 03:07 |
Win7ine | Try Naproxen instead of overdosing on Paracetamol | 03:07 |
Win7ine | ALways use the right tool for the job right ;-) | 03:08 |
pwr22 | LjL i would never take any paracetamol without a good reason 😅 | 03:08 |
pwr22 | It's a very different drug, and it's prescription only in the UK | 03:09 |
pwr22 | I took ibuprofen which isn't but I have contraindications for it so generally avoid it | 03:10 |
pwr22 | Win7ine are you a medical professional with access to my records because otherwise I'm not sure you should really be giving me medical advice? | 03:10 |
Brainstorm | Updates for India: +122 deaths (now 400312) since 18 hours ago | 03:11 |
Win7ine | Anybody halfway isane will tell you that 4g of Paracetamol is an overdose without lookig at your records or as to why you would attempt to do that and discuss in in a public COVID forum | 03:13 |
pwr22 | https://www.nhs.uk/medicines/paracetamol-for-adults/ | 03:14 |
pwr22 | *sigh* | 03:14 |
pwr22 | Just because your country tells you it's dangerous doesn't mean it is | 03:15 |
pwr22 | If other countries routinely do it, it just means your country is being cautious | 03:15 |
pwr22 | Which is fine | 03:15 |
nixonix | hard to believe those claims from indonesia. 1) almost exactly similar ratio for adverse effects between az than chinese vax, considering they use chinese 10x more 2) claimed no deaths, when even 50x lower population finland had a few thrombosis and i think 1 death from az, that was used only couple hundred thousand doses max at the time | 03:15 |
pwr22 | But I'll ask you kindly to be aware that not everything you think is by definition correct, and try to be nice 😛 | 03:16 |
nixonix | so i guess its better just look at south american experiences, instead of asia | 03:16 |
pwr22 | If you have no medical issues and aren't taking anything that on particular stresses the same things as paracetamol then it's perfectly safe | 03:17 |
pwr22 | If it wasn't I would be dead many times over | 03:17 |
pwr22 | And most my family and friends | 03:17 |
pwr22 | Anyway I'll shut up about paracetamol now as it's well off topic at this point | 03:18 |
nixonix | "Even so, he said his findings suggest Sinovac is "still effective." "About 50% of the respondents were asymptomatic or [had] very minor symptoms," he said. "Also, less than 1% died." | 03:20 |
nixonix | with indonesian median age, this should convince somebody? | 03:20 |
nixonix | .title https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/COVID-vaccines/Chinese-vaccines-Sinovac-needs-outweigh-doubts-in-Indonesia | 03:22 |
Brainstorm | nixonix: From asia.nikkei.com: Chinese vaccines: Sinovac needs outweigh doubts in Indonesia - Nikkei Asia | 03:22 |
Win7ine | Was reading an excellent new scientific publications on a Corona Virus Epidemic which took place over 20000! years ago in east Asia. This is written in human DNA! | 03:23 |
Win7ine | Here goes: https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(21)00794-6 | 03:25 |
nixonix | Campaign with the immunizing agent was interrupted in the country after a 31-year-old man presented with thrombosis ... Men under 45 who received the first dose of AstraZeneca are expected to complete the vaccination schedule with Pfizer | 03:26 |
nixonix | thats from chile. one type of reactive policing there... | 03:27 |
nixonix | .title https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/05/human-tissue-preserved-world-war-i-yields-new-clues-about-1918-pandemic | 03:35 |
Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.sciencemag.org: Human tissue preserved since World War I yields new clues about 1918 pandemic | Science | AAAS | 03:35 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Cyprus: +529 cases (now 76862) since a day ago | 03:36 |
LjL | let's hope we're not still really in the "first wave" of COVID when you compare it to the 1918 influenza... | 04:23 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: British PM Johnson says AstraZeneca’s India Covid shot should be accepted in travel schemes → https://is.gd/asKjHC | 04:31 |
LjL | why wouldn't it O.o | 04:34 |
LjL | ... "after the European Union did not initially recognise it." | 04:35 |
LjL | sigh | 04:35 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Thailand: +6230 cases (now 277151), +41 deaths (now 2182) since 23 hours ago — Mauritania: +83 cases (now 20977) since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +26980 cases (now 4.9 million), +25 deaths (now 128314) since 23 hours ago — Guinea-Bissau: +11 cases (now 3880) since 23 hours ago | 04:38 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Covid-19: Flexible, agile vaccination strategy vital in saving lives in India, says Lancet report → https://is.gd/YGl0PI | 04:42 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Liberia: +216 cases (now 4520), +4 deaths (now 133) since 23 hours ago | 05:40 |
Brainstorm | New from This Week In Virology: TWiV 775: COVID-19 clinical update #69 with Dr. Daniel Griffin: In COVID-19 clinical update #69, Daniel Griffin covers effectiveness of mRNA vaccines against the delta variant, depression among public health workers, correlates of protection against asymptomatic and symptomatic infection, BNT162b2 in ChAdOx-1-S primed [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/YgWTEW | 06:15 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Honduras: +1798 cases (now 265174), +29 deaths (now 7059) since 22 hours ago | 06:29 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Finland: COVID-19 rise linked in part to football fans returning from Russia → https://is.gd/reHbFP | 07:07 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +623 cases (now 1.1 million), +5 deaths (now 25185) since a day ago | 07:07 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Florida, United States: +15684 cases (now 2.4 million), +213 deaths (now 37985) since 6 days ago — Mexico City, Mexico: +1879 cases (now 688847), +27 deaths (now 34735) since 23 hours ago — Saint Petersburg, Russia: +1671 cases (now 472935), +101 deaths (now 16562) since 23 hours ago — Castile y Leon, Spain: +925 cases (now 237779), +2 deaths (now 6927) since 23 hours ago | 07:32 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Pfizer, J&J anti-COVID-19 vaccines more effective against Delta than Beta variant: S African experts → https://is.gd/rYlLl7 | 07:38 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: Doctors want to keep some measures after 19 July: The use of face masks in shops and on public transport should remain, the British Medical Association says. → https://is.gd/36W6Ku | 08:09 |
Brainstorm | Updates for India: +44111 cases (now 30.5 million), +620 deaths (now 400810) since 12 hours ago | 08:40 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | July 03, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://is.gd/ZaSHoo | 09:10 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Laos: +37 cases (now 2213) since 22 hours ago | 09:30 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Fiji: +386 cases (now 5639), +2 deaths (now 27) since a day ago — Canada: +43 deaths (now 26338) since 18 hours ago | 10:38 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Why the Delta variant could end Australia’s pursuit of ‘Covid zero’ → https://is.gd/1Ovkrf | 10:42 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: ‘The world is watching’: Britain gambles on reopening despite the Delta variant → https://is.gd/JXS8tN | 10:53 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: Stars perform musical song in latest vaccine push: Film, TV and stage actors appear in a campaign video urging people to get their Covid jab. → https://is.gd/MdVCQU | 11:14 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid: Doctors want to keep some measures after 19 July → https://is.gd/ncZjej | 11:56 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +439 cases (now 3.7 million) since 20 hours ago | 12:36 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Indonesia: +27913 cases (now 2.3 million), +493 deaths (now 60027) since 23 hours ago | 13:01 |
Brainstorm | New from Gazzetta Ufficiale italiana: MINISTERO DELLA SALUTE - ORDINANZA 2 luglio 2021: Ulteriori misure urgenti in materia di contenimento e gestionedell'emergenza epidemiologica da COVID-19 in «zona bianca».(21A04067) → https://is.gd/8OlxLK | 13:09 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Nepal: +1527 cases (now 643580), +19 deaths (now 9198) since 23 hours ago | 13:38 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Germany issues world's strongest recommendation for mixing Covid-19 vaccines → https://is.gd/9yJaqZ | 14:22 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Russia reported its fifth record for daily Covid-19 deaths in a row on Saturday, as countries around the world rush to contain the rapid spread of the highly contagious Delta variant. → https://is.gd/LnL9XL | 14:33 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Destination of the week: Overseas tourists roam free on Thai island of Phuket without quarantine → https://is.gd/nitBTi | 14:54 |
de-facto | We crossed R=1 in Germany, so from now on incidence will rise due to Delta | 15:37 |
de-facto | My first fit predicted July 4th, so i was one day off with that | 15:38 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Two Men Have Been in Jail for 45 Days for Saying Cow Poop and Piss Can’t Cure COVID → https://is.gd/rpmzTD | 15:47 |
martini_man[m] | https://noqreport.com/2021/07/02/as-adverse-reactions-to-covid-vaccines-reaches-400000-the-truth-must-be-spread-widely | 16:17 |
martini_man[m] | https://rairfoundation.com/mit-scientist-covid-vaccines-may-cause-diseases-in-10-to-15-years-exclusive-video/ | 16:23 |
de-facto | US got 6k COVID fatalities in peak times... | 16:25 |
de-facto | ...per day | 16:25 |
de-facto | just in relation, many many of such can be prevented by the vaccinations | 16:25 |
de-facto | hence the so called benefit to risk ratio strongly votes in favor of vaccination, for almost all age groups, hence the very majority of people | 16:27 |
de-facto | but yeah of course the benefit to risk ratio expectation value has to be evaluated for each individual | 16:28 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Bangladesh: +6214 cases (now 936256), +134 deaths (now 14912) since a day ago | 16:32 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Japanese Study Finds Malaria Drug Mefloquine Effectively Blocks COVID-19; Reduces Viral Load In Synergy With HIV Drug → https://is.gd/PyesqN | 16:38 |
pwr22 | <Brainstorm "New from r/WorldNews: worldnews:"> You can't make this stuff up 🤦♂️ | 17:08 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Iran at risk of fifth COVID-19 wave as Delta variant spreads: President Hassan Rouhani → https://is.gd/VLZ9f7 | 17:09 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Guernsey: +6 cases (now 847) since a day ago | 17:34 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +45 cases (now 4.3 million) since 22 hours ago | 17:59 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Schoolchildren have discovered that applying orange juice to a Covid lateral flow test can generate a fake “positive” result. Science teacher claims students say ‘it’s a great way to get two weeks off’, as experts criticise practice. → https://is.gd/gsQjWq | 18:21 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: J&J Covid-19 vaccine lasts at least 8 months, protects against Delta variant, studies find → https://is.gd/wE6QHW | 19:02 |
Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +24447 cases (now 4.9 million) since 16 hours ago | 19:08 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): 1 in 1300 women had period irregularities post the vaccine, The Israeli health minister said the process for that is unknown and request women to report about any changes to their periods(Israel): Israeli broadcasting agency (KAN) run a story bringing several Medics to explain the phenomena how women who are post menopause age ( [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/juZlYM | 19:13 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Morocco: +951 cases (now 533945), +8 deaths (now 9315) since 23 hours ago | 20:03 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: COVID-19 Delta variant detected in 98 countries, continues to evolve and mutate, warns WHO → https://is.gd/OgVUkO | 20:44 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Cuba: +3475 cases (now 200728), +15 deaths (now 1337) since a day ago — Portugal: +2605 cases (now 887047), +4 deaths (now 17112) since a day ago | 20:59 |
Brainstorm | Updates for South Africa: +26485 cases (now 2.0 million), +175 deaths (now 61507) since a day ago | 21:37 |
LjL | http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=South%20Africa&cumulative=no&smooth=yes | 21:43 |
Arsanerit | LjL: interesting how symmetric and of equal heights those waves are | 21:46 |
LjL | hmm not quite equal height | 21:46 |
LjL | the height seems to be increasing with each one | 21:46 |
Arsanerit | True, but only a bit. | 21:47 |
Arsanerit | and it goes down sharply, do they have very strict lockdowns compared to the ones in Europe? | 21:47 |
LjL | true about the symmetry, i've noticed it before (though it's not always symmetric, but i think particularly powerful waves tend to be symmetric, maybe because people react strongly) | 21:47 |
LjL | i don't know, but look at India's latest bad wave, and it's similar | 21:48 |
Arsanerit | Is there any data on how many people affected by delta waves are vaccinated, in those countries where many people are? | 21:49 |
picomite | About 70% of all new COVID-19 infections in Thailand are of the Delta (Indian) variant ... Currently, the dominant strain is the Alpha variant. (scratches head...) | 22:06 |
picomite | aus: Things run smoothly until the GP’s receptionist tells the patients that the inoculation they’ll be getting is the AstraZeneca vaccine. “No I don’t want that,” they’ll say. Some yell or scream. | 22:08 |
picomite | .title https://www.smh.com.au/national/gps-receptionists-in-firing-line-face-anger-threats-and-ignorance-20210703-p586in.html | 22:08 |
Brainstorm | picomite: From www.smh.com.au: Australia COVID: GP’s receptionists in firing line, face anger, ignorance and threats | 22:08 |
picomite | Cuomo has killed more than 50,000 New Yorkers, including many essential workers. | 22:11 |
picomite | sorry, i misread that. it was COVID-19. covid has killed them, not cuomo with his own hands | 22:12 |
de-facto | https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/finland-to-remove-entry-restrictions-for-arrivals-from-several-eu-third-countries-from-july-1/ | 22:14 |
de-facto | https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/5-million-britons-with-indian-made-astrazeneca-vaccine-may-face-eu-travel-ban/ | 22:14 |
picomite | i wonder if EMA will give, hmm, emergency approval to chinese and russian vaccines, just so that they can get in eu area | 22:15 |
picomite | most cases in southwest finland have been recently from travellers coming from abroad. probably the same on many other areas | 22:18 |
picomite | remove bar and travelling restrictions, who knows if this time it goes better than last summer and early fall. you never know before you try, other variants and all | 22:19 |
picomite | i dont think indian made az will matter. they cant say who got what version, at least vaccinated dont get that info | 22:21 |
de-facto | here we would get a batch number in the yellow WHO vaccination booklet | 22:22 |
de-facto | afaik ema approves not only vaccines but also production conditions to ensure its properly done | 22:23 |
de-facto | they got production sites with licenses in their delivery contracts | 22:24 |
de-facto | afaik the process has to be certified and constantly controlled | 22:24 |
picomite | i read in uk they dont get that info. anyways, i think i got some blue card | 22:25 |
de-facto | btw did you get your primer yet nixonix? | 22:25 |
picomite | i got the first dose | 22:25 |
de-facto | BNT? | 22:26 |
picomite | yeah | 22:26 |
de-facto | nice | 22:26 |
picomite | i was planning maybe not to take az. before those thrombosis news, because of weaker efficacy. and wait until i get mrna, which i thought might take a few months more | 22:27 |
picomite | but depending on situation and assessing risks later | 22:28 |
de-facto | i think soon we will have limitations for first doses by hesitance, and even some seem to think "one dose is enough" hence not get their second shot, which leaves them vulnerable for delta | 22:28 |
picomite | what kind of limitations? | 22:29 |
de-facto | at least that is what the news seem to indicate, we will see if it turns out to be a problem or not, yet unfortunately it sounds plausible | 22:29 |
de-facto | limitations to vaccination rates at some point will not be delivery shortages but demand, not sure when the switching point will be | 22:29 |
de-facto | afaik US already is beyond that point | 22:30 |
picomite | there will be more mandates later, when all the doses they get wont get used. interesting to see which countries will implement them | 22:30 |
picomite | what do you mean by limitations to vaccination rates? | 22:30 |
de-facto | afaik in UK the participation is quite good, so maybe that is the one good thing about their delta problem, but i guess many EU countries will just follow their example | 22:31 |
de-facto | vaccinations achieved per unit time | 22:31 |
de-facto | its always limited due to something, at the start it was delivery (and i guess it still is), but at some point supply will outperform demand | 22:31 |
picomite | yeah, but how? this city or state must jab N/day or else...? | 22:32 |
de-facto | https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-vaccination-doses-per-capita | 22:32 |
de-facto | idk how to achieve that | 22:33 |
de-facto | but we need to reach something like 80%-90% fully vaccinated for the fall | 22:33 |
picomite | i dont really understand how do you "limit" it, if it means like minimum limits for daily or weekly doses. exp by mandating for some type of workers etc | 22:34 |
picomite | or students. or vaccine passports to get in bars and events | 22:34 |
de-facto | i think making the vaccinations mandatory is wrong, hence people must understand how important it is for both themselves and the society they benefit from | 22:35 |
picomite | they prob dont want to mandate it too early, because there would be counter reaction (fuck you, i wont do what you tell me to do) | 22:36 |
de-facto | i dont want to limit anything, with limit i mean there is always some factor holding vaccination rates back, its not always the same, hence maximizing rates must take that into account | 22:36 |
picomite | but then later, depends eg how parents are taking their kids to vaccination, how these brain, telomere etc things will turn out for them | 22:37 |
de-facto | obviously vaccination rates are time race against delta, UK already reached weekly incidence of 200/100k | 22:37 |
picomite | what kind of breakthrough rates we will see among old ppl | 22:37 |
picomite | .title https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57667987 | 22:38 |
de-facto | the variants will become more aggressive, so not being vaccinated will become more and more dangerous | 22:38 |
de-facto | yeah they are talking about a booster for elderly before winter in Germany too | 22:39 |
de-facto | its quite cynical because many parts of the world dont even have enough vaccines for protecting healthcare workers | 22:39 |
de-facto | for example in Africa | 22:39 |
de-facto | they depended on the vaccine production of State Serum Institude of India | 22:40 |
de-facto | but that produces now for the own indian population, quite understandable, but that also means Africa got a severe vaccine shortage there | 22:40 |
de-facto | they need to be supplied, even if it would be expensive, its of uttermost importance to do vaccinations at maximum possible rates globally synchronized | 22:41 |
de-facto | otherwise we will just have new breakthrough waves, because incidence will explode and bruteforce (natural) immunity | 22:41 |
de-facto | it has to be contained in any place worldwide, we need to collaborate | 22:42 |
de-facto | tolerating any high incidence is a thread for vaccine protection at any other place in the world | 22:42 |
nixonix | cordyceps for cancer? is it real medicine or some TCM? | 22:42 |
nixonix | .title https://www.smh.com.au/national/united-in-confusion-it-s-tough-for-30-somethings-to-assess-vaccine-risk-20210702-p586c9.html | 22:43 |
Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.smh.com.au: COVID Australia: AstraZeneca or Pfizer? Young people are united in confusion | 22:43 |
nixonix | i asked another day, if anyone knows whats the typical time from infection (or from positive test) for hospital admission | 22:45 |
de-facto | .title https://www.karger.com/Article/FullText/381744 | 22:46 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.karger.com: Ginkgo biloba Extract Inhibits Platelet Activation via Inhibition of Akt - FullText - Integrative Medicine International 2014, Vol. 1, No. 4 - Karger Publishers | 22:46 |
de-facto | i wonder if that can help with the blood coagulation issues | 22:46 |
nixonix | early spring 2020 the rise in identified cases was followed by rise in deaths around 17-22 days. but in the fall, the delay between peaks was 4-8 weeks in europe | 22:46 |
de-facto | (i dont know though) | 22:46 |
nixonix | i just read, that in finland the rise in cases was followed by hospital admission peak after 29 days - but not sure if it was in the fall or winter 2021, hmm | 22:47 |
de-facto | .title https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2716226/ | 22:47 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov: Fibrinolytic effects of Ginkgo biloba extract | 22:47 |
nixonix | now with vaccines those hospital and death peaks will be dampened, but still interesting to see what kind of delays there will be | 22:47 |
nixonix | suggesting that Ginkgo extract dissolves the clot via a mechanism different than that of SK and plasminogen). Further studies are required to understand this mechanism | 22:51 |
nixonix | hmm, find out the possible mechanism, isolate the molecule, and real RCT's | 22:51 |
nixonix | .title https://www.thailandnews.co/2021/07/innovation-in-cancer-prevention-bio-robots-transporting-cordyceps-extract/ | 22:52 |
Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.thailandnews.co: Innovation in Cancer Prevention: Bio-robots Transporting Cordyceps Extract - Thailand News | 22:52 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Mozambique: +1139 cases (now 79213), +12 deaths (now 897) since a day ago — Malawi: +247 cases (now 36820), +3 deaths (now 1205) since a day ago | 23:04 |
nixonix | prob mostly TCM stuff, wiki says so, studies have chinese and japanese names, published in japanese journal with JIF around 3 | 23:06 |
nixonix | those nanomites are cool, tho | 23:07 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Missouri patient in his 40s ‘so sorry’ he didn’t get the COVID vaccine. Then he died → https://is.gd/6giFGF | 23:07 |
de-facto | .title https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0367326X21000848 <-- hmm it really seems to contain some interesting molecules | 23:09 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.sciencedirect.com: Discovery of naturally occurring inhibitors against SARS-CoV-2 3CLpro from Ginkgo biloba leaves via large-scale screening - ScienceDirect | 23:09 |
nixonix | i wish we had gingseng here. i used to watch a tv series where they collected them in usa and made huge money, selling them to old and rich koreans and chinese | 23:12 |
de-facto | its sold here in every drugstore | 23:13 |
nixonix | more roots and older, the more expensive. they were supposed to have more those potent magic ingredients. they were selling cheaper stuff on road side booths, then special appointments for the really expensive stuff | 23:13 |
nixonix | small plastic box could cost tens of thousands | 23:14 |
de-facto | i dont think it could be a direct treatment, but i think it *potentially* may contain some molecules with interesting anti-coagulative and anti-reproductive properties, hence may be a good entry point for anti-covid research | 23:16 |
nixonix | whole roots, not pills with a little extract you cant know if they have any or very little in them. it was like selling gold, carried guns for robbery attempts | 23:17 |
nixonix | there are millions of molecules in molecule libraries. but sure if something new is found from nature, its worth checking out | 23:17 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Thousands of Brazilians took to the streets Saturday to protest against President Jair Bolsonaro, who faces an investigation over an allegedly corrupt Covid vaccine deal. It was the third day of demonstrations against the government → https://is.gd/GQyQwy | 23:17 |
de-facto | i wish i could link beyond their paywall there, its a very interesting paper | 23:20 |
nixonix | sci-hub | 23:20 |
de-facto | is broken | 23:21 |
nixonix | .title https://torrentfreak.com/uk-police-warn-students-not-to-use-sci-hub-publishers-promote-it-210322/ | 23:21 |
Brainstorm | nixonix: From torrentfreak.com: UK Police Warn Students Not to Use Sci-Hub But Publishers 'Promote' It * TorrentFreak | 23:21 |
Brainstorm | nixonix: From torrentfreak.com: UK Police Warn Students Not to Use Sci-Hub But Publishers 'Promote' It * TorrentFreak | 23:21 |
de-facto | since months | 23:21 |
LjL | UK police can go where all the rest of them can go | 23:21 |
nixonix | it worked for me | 23:23 |
nixonix | just not for that link above | 23:23 |
nixonix | this worked https://sci-hub.se/10.1016/j.meegid.2020.104351 | 23:23 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Iranian president warns of 5th wave as delta spreads: President Hassan Rouhani thinks the highly infectious variant will spark a fresh surge in coronavirus infections. US sanctions are hampering Iran's vaccination drive as it develops several homegrown alternatives → https://is.gd/uwNElY | 23:28 |
de-facto | .title https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8061081/ | 23:34 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov: Discovery of naturally occurring inhibitors against SARS-CoV-2 3CLpro from Ginkgo biloba leaves via large-scale screening | 23:34 |
de-facto | there found the open version | 23:34 |
de-facto | nixonix, yeah the old papers work, they just dont add new ones it seems | 23:35 |
nixonix | .title https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/jun/27/profitable-business-scientific-publishing-bad-for-science | 23:56 |
Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.theguardian.com: Is the staggeringly profitable business of scientific publishing bad for science? | Science | The Guardian | 23:56 |
Arsanerit | open access is on the rise thankfully | 23:57 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: COVID-19 origins: 'It looked like it was designed to infect humans' → https://is.gd/DLAhoK | 23:58 |
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