libera/##covid-19/ Friday, 2021-07-09

de-facto	.papers EGCG TFDG TSA	00:00
Brainstorm	de-facto: An error occurred while searching.	00:00
de-facto	.papers TSA	00:00
Brainstorm	de-facto: An error occurred while searching.	00:00
de-facto	hmm	00:01
de-facto	there are quite some papers https://www.google.com/search?q=COVID+EGCG+TFDG+TSA	00:02
de-facto	one example	00:03
de-facto	.title https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.04.412098v1.full	00:03
Brainstorm	de-facto: From www.biorxiv.org: Significant inactivation of SARS-CoV-2 by a green tea catechin, a catechin-derivative and galloylated theaflavins in vitro \| bioRxiv	00:03
de-facto	i wonder how inclusion of Ginkgo would have performed in their measurement there	00:05
de-facto	.title https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8061081/	00:05
Brainstorm	de-facto: From www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov: Discovery of naturally occurring inhibitors against SARS-CoV-2 3CLpro from Ginkgo biloba leaves via large-scale screening	00:05
de-facto	disclaimer: none of those are cures, but may contain some interesting molecules that inhibit some of the processes in the SARS-CoV-2 replication cycle	00:06
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Canada will not welcome unvaccinated tourists for some time → https://is.gd/geroJs	00:17
de-facto	oh btw too much of green/black tea can harm the liver, so only "normal" amounts should be consumed	00:30
de-facto	also drinking it may prevent sleeping for quite some time	00:31
de-facto	<-- speaking insomniac	00:31
LjL	hmm, he seems to have disappeared, hopefully just sleeping. i hope i can tell him to buy some tea tomorrow, he never has much stuff at home, and if he gets a fever it might be illegal to leave home (and arguably not responsible anyway, although he doesn't yet know he has covid)	00:32
de-facto	well if he 1) had contact to someone that tested positive 2) got a sore throat the assumption that he may have it too is not too far fetched, hence should isolate ang get tested	00:36
de-facto	but yeah maybe he got some black tea in the cupboard, hence my mentioning it	00:37
de-facto	it even would help with other throat inflammations, so other viral or bacterial problems	00:37
de-facto	correction: potentially help	00:38
Brainstorm	New from The Lancet (Online): Mine Durusu Tanriover, Hamdi Levent Doğanay, Murat Akova, Hatice Rahmet Güner, Alpay Azap, Sıla Akhan, Şükran Köse, Fatma Şebnem Erdinç, Emin Halis Akalın, Ömer Fehmi Tabak, Hüsnü Pullukçu, Özgür Batum, Serap Şimşek Yavuz, Özge Turhan, Mustafa Taner Yıldırmak, İftihar Köksal, Yeşim Taşova, Volkan [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/ZLg13x	00:38
de-facto	but i guess normal amounts would not hurt, so why not try it?	00:38
de-facto	interesting	00:40
de-facto	.title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01429-X	00:40
Brainstorm	de-facto: From www.thelancet.com: Efficacy and safety of an inactivated whole-virion SARS-CoV-2 vaccine (CoronaVac): interim results of a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial in Turkey - The Lancet	00:40
LjL	de-facto, it's a weird situation from what i can see... he told this person he had a hoarse throat (not sore, different, my fault), and this person told him they had it too, and also they had covid, but then when he inquired further and asked whether they had actually got a PCR, they stopped answering and maybe went to bed	00:40
LjL	but, if they have COVID, and even have the same initial presenting symptom... well... i find it likely he got it too?	00:40
de-facto	"During a median follow-up period of 43 days (IQR 36–48), nine cases of PCR-confirmed symptomatic COVID-19 were reported in the vaccine group (31·7 cases [14·6–59·3] per 1000 person-years) and 32 cases were reported in the placebo group (192·3 cases [135·7–261·1] per 1000 person-years) 14 days or more after the second dose, yielding a vaccine efficacy of 83·5% (95% CI 65·4–92·1; p<0·0001)."	00:41
LjL	de-facto, that's a Chinese vaccine right? but not one that is in actual use yet?	00:41
de-facto	IndoAnon, is that the one used in Indonesia?	00:42
LjL	%vax coronavac	00:42
Brainstorm	LjL, no such vaccine found. Try checking https://covidvax.org	00:42
de-facto	i thought it is in use in several countries, but i may be wrong	00:42
LjL	Brainstorm, boooo	00:42
LjL	de-facto, i don't know, bad memory, i just assumed it wasn't if they're releasing a phase 3 interim now	00:43
LjL	and also i remember that chinese vaccines were all said to be performing poorly	00:43
LjL	but 83.5% wouldn't be poor	00:43
de-facto	https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_COVID-19_vaccine_authorizations#CoronaVac	00:44
LjL	ah it's sinovac	00:44
de-facto	i wonder which variants it would have been tested against there in Turkey	00:45
LjL	A real-world study of ten millions of Chileans who received CoronaVac found it 66% effective against symptomatic COVID-19, 88% against hospitalization, 90% against ICU admissions, and 86% against deaths.[10] In Brazil, after 75% of the population in Serrana, São Paulo received CoronaVac, preliminary results show deaths fell by 95%, hospitalizations by 86%, and symptomatic cases by 80%.[11][12]	00:45
de-facto	i guess Alpha and Beta?	00:45
de-facto	https://covariants.org/per-country	00:45
LjL	i've heard bad things about the "Serrana experiment" or "S project"	00:45
LjL	also yeah it's used in Indonesia	00:46
LjL	Phase III results from Brazil previously showed 50.7% efficacy at preventing symptomatic infections and 83.7% effective in preventing mild cases needing treatment. Efficacy against symptomatic infections increased to 62.3% with an interval of 21 days or more between the doses.[14] Final Phase III results from Turkey announced on 3 March 2021 showed an efficacy of 84%.[15]	00:46
LjL	this sounds dodgy	00:46
LjL	but 83.7% is very close to 84%	00:46
LjL	so if they defined "case" differently in different trials...	00:46
LjL	(which is, of course, a totally awesome idea)	00:47
de-facto	LjL, i wonder if such inactivated vaccines induce a "broader" immune spectrum, hence maybe not as protective but spread immunity over more variants?	00:47
LjL	sounds possible, but still, if it's 60% i'd say "let's try something else instead", if it's >80% i'd say "sure, that's promising, and hopefully broader response"	00:47
de-facto	like if they would have less relative evasion, but maybe not as high absolute protection if the challenge spike is close to the used vaccine antigen spike	00:48
LjL	what is "mild cases needing treatment", that's a case definition i've not really seen in other trials	00:48
de-facto	i think this will be in discussion soon, how to create "broader" immune reaction that also covers all those nasty circulating variants	00:48
de-facto	not quite sure how to achieve that, because the immune system should be directed against the spike to prevent infection of cells but also should kill off cells that got already infected	00:49
de-facto	i guess multi-valent mRNA or such?	00:50
LjL	de-facto, i read today... damn, i forget things... but it was from one of those things linker earlier, or yesterday, about "pre-wuhan" sequences (well, wuhan sequences that hadn't been published yet), it said something like "if these sequences are confirmed, pfizer/moderna [don't remember which one] said they plan to include them in their multivalent one-shot yearly vaccine"	00:50
ketas	second dose!	00:51
LjL	ketas, me too!	00:51
ketas	of what	00:51
ketas	was it az?	00:51
LjL	ketas, i'd say Pfizer but since de-facto is listening i'll say BNT	00:51
de-facto	.title https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.18.449051v1	00:51
Brainstorm	de-facto: From www.biorxiv.org: Recovery of deleted deep sequencing data sheds more light on the early Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 epidemic \| bioRxiv	00:51
de-facto	do you mean those?	00:51
ketas	why does de-facto listen	00:52
LjL	de-facto, most likely, not fully sure, but since in the COI statement it says one of the authors works for Moderna, it would make sense	00:52
de-facto	LjL, you got your second dose already?	00:53
LjL	de-facto, yes, today	00:53
de-facto	heh thats before me!	00:53
de-facto	how are you feeling?	00:53
* de-facto cant believe it, LjL got his primer after him and will be fully vaccinated before him		00:54
LjL	de-facto, i'm fine for now, not even my arm really hurts, it was burning a bit earlier for a few minutes and that's all at this time	00:55
LjL	i was supposed to get it on saturday	00:55
LjL	but last time i got the first dose, saturday proved to be a bad day, long queue	00:56
de-facto	same arm or other?	00:56
LjL	so i was able to move it two days ahead	00:56
LjL	same arm	00:56
LjL	they asked, so if it's the wrong choice, it's my choice :P	00:56
de-facto	what did they ask?	00:56
de-facto	same or other?	00:56
LjL	they just asked which arm i wanted	00:56
LjL	i said "i did the left last time, let's continue with that"	00:57
de-facto	ah yeah	00:57
de-facto	i think at the end it probably does not really matter anyhow	00:57
LjL	probably not. sometimes i have RSI that flares up in my right arm, that's the main reason i wanted it to be the left	00:57
LjL	best not compound/confound things	00:57
de-facto	yeah makes sense	00:58
de-facto	at what time did you get it today?	00:58
LjL	17	00:58
LjL	this time there was hardly anybody	00:58
LjL	i got the shot at 17:34 to be exact	00:59
LjL	but i went there at say 17:15	00:59
de-facto	yeah i see i coud book appointments at any time here too, either enough supply or not enough demand	00:59
Brainstorm	New from Ars Technica: Science: All fans banned from Tokyo Olympics as COVID cases rise, delta spreads → https://is.gd/H5A43p	00:59
de-facto	i hope not the second	00:59
LjL	de-facto, wasn't quite like that here, there weren't so many, but i was lucky to find a suitable one	00:59
LjL	although it was a bad day weather-wise, it poured	01:00
LjL	i got soaked	01:00
LjL	also when i was waiting my 15 minutes, my Aura mask started... erm... dripping water onto my pants ;( which was embarrassing	01:00
LjL	it gets REALLY humid in there when it's humid outside and you're not quite calm	01:00
de-facto	lol oops, probably filtering not too well if its soaked	01:01
LjL	de-facto, the mask wasn't soaked by the rain, i had an umbrella	01:01
LjL	the mask got wet from the general wetness, and from my breath ;(	01:01
de-facto	yeah wet masks would have to be replaced acutally	01:02
LjL	i managed to get generally soaked despite the umbrella because it was raining, like, serious	01:02
de-facto	same here btw completely got soaked today	01:02
LjL	well de-facto i can't replace my mask every 30 minutes if walking makes it wet	01:02
de-facto	i dont wear a mask outdoors i rather stay away of people	01:03
de-facto	and i put it on when i go indoors somewhere, hoping for it to be dry and filter well for a while	01:03
LjL	de-facto, you know what the Aura is like to put on... not particularly easy, i'd prefer to do it calmly at home	01:03
LjL	i don't use it in most normal situations for that reason	01:04
de-facto	yeah i just dont want it to get wet if i can avoid that	01:04
LjL	i understand, but i'm just saying, i did what i could do	01:04
LjL	legally i have to wear a mask in my building	01:04
de-facto	but in the winter it was really bad, instantly got wet with a few breaths outdoors	01:04
LjL	putting the aura on then taking it off for walking then putting it back on before entering the vaccine center...	01:05
LjL	would just have risked making it a lot MORE wet by me making any mistake	01:05
lavadonut	what are the odds of catching covid outdoors	01:05
LjL	and then i wouldn't have had a mask	01:05
LjL	lavadonut, "low"	01:05
lavadonut	if you're vaccinated	01:05
LjL	but who knows	01:05
LjL	oh if you're vaccinated, i know even less	01:05
LjL	probably like "really very low"? :P	01:05
de-facto	lavadonut, it depends on where other people are, how crowded an area is, how distancing works, if its sunny, if its windy	01:05
LjL	it depends on variants and stuff for starters	01:06
de-facto	yeah that too	01:06
LjL	but even if you told me the exact variant that concerns you, studies are hard to make on these things	01:06
lavadonut	i'm vaccinated and sure as hell not going to be wearing a mask outdoors :D	01:06
LjL	well if you're sure as hell anyway, then why even ask? :P	01:06
de-facto	in a crowded place i would wear a mask outdoors even when vaccinated	01:06
lavadonut	wondering why other people are doing it	01:06
de-facto	but then i would not go in crowded places anyhow, so...	01:06
de-facto	but if i walk alone on the street or such, i dont see a reason to wear a mask when there is like 50m distance to next human outdoors	01:07
de-facto	if its crowded shopping mall or such, yeah i would wear a mask there	01:07
lavadonut	i guess i might wear it outside if i knew i was going to be talking to an unvaccinated person for more than 60 seconds	01:07
LjL	lavadonut, because of the cautionary principle that i've always been preaching about here. remember how at first the WHO said "there was no evidence" that masks were helpful? well, of course there was no evidence, it was a new thing, but masks are generally useful for not catching respiratory diseases, so common sense says "wear masks". instead they suggested "don't wear masks" for various political reasons	01:07
LjL	anyway, point being, chances of catching it outdoors are probably very low, but "probably" just means "probably"	01:08
lavadonut	it's still a cold virus	01:08
LjL	outdoor infections rarely if ever show up in contact tracing	01:08
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lavadonut	who gets a cold in summer	01:08
LjL	but tell me, how often are people going to tell contact tracers "oh, i met that blonde person randomly in the street three days ago"?	01:08
LjL	lavadonut, that's a stupid assertion	01:08
de-facto	i think it really has to be differentiated, depending on circumstances there also could be transmission outdoors	01:08
lavadonut	your mom is a stupid assertion	01:08
LjL	1) most "cold" is rhinovirus, not coronavirus, although some coronaviruses also cause "colds"	01:09
de-facto	generalizing like "outdoors there is no transmission" is plain wrong imho	01:09
lavadonut	what about outdoors+vaccinated	01:09
LjL	2) just because some cause what you call "colds", doesn't mean other coronaviruses aren't SARS with its definitely-not-a-fucking-cold 10% death rate	01:09
lavadonut	i mean it's still a cold virus in terms of transmission	01:09
lavadonut	transmission pattern	01:09
LjL	3) seasonal variation of COVID-19 should be studies, has been studies, and is still being studied, and yes there does appear to be less ability to transmit it in the summer, but still definitely VERY WELL possible (just look at Arizona last summer)	01:10
de-facto	respiratory virus	01:10
LjL	no, you don't know that	01:10
lavadonut	if i thought it was literally "just a cold" then why did i get vaccinated? :')	01:10
LjL	being a coronavirus doesn't magically give it the same transmission patterns of other coronaviruses	01:10
lavadonut	i didn't even set foot in a grocery store for 14 months	01:10
LjL	anyway i stumbled upon some tweet pointing out that a recent study determined one transmission occurred indoors, in a bathroom, from someone who was in that bathroom 40 minutes before. and yet we have minimization of "actual" aerosol transmission in many cases (like for instance not insisting on air circulation much more)	01:11
de-facto	this thing is very infectious, especially now with Delta	01:11
de-facto	tiny doses already are enough to trigger an infection, so also outdoors the threshold may be reached sooner with this variant now	01:12
LjL	so that's about indoors, but if you can catch it indoors from airborne virus that was released 40 minutes ago, why would you think you definitely can't catch it from someone walking just near you outdoors if they release it at that time?	01:12
LjL	sure, the sun and stuff will probably kill it quickly, so chances are much lower, and you probably won't get it 40 minutes later	01:12
lavadonut	idk, because i've taken introductory statistical mechanics?	01:12
LjL	but you're walking next to people	01:12
de-facto	for example its MUCH more infectious than influenza (just as one example)	01:12
lavadonut	how many virus particles are going to be in the air from just walking past someone	01:12
LjL	lavadonut, okay, so you know because you have qualifications	01:12
LjL	i'll fuck off then	01:12
lavadonut	a slight breeze will blow it away instantly	01:13
LjL	one study estimated 10 virions may be the lower limit for transmission	01:13
de-facto	if someone smokes and you walk pass, would you smell it?	01:13
LjL	what does your introductory statistical mechanics tell you about 10 viral particles entering your airways from someone sneezing near you	01:13
de-facto	if yes there is a direct connection between foreign exhale and own inhale	01:13
lavadonut	you just said from walking past, not sneezing	01:13
LjL	well, that's a worst case	01:14
LjL	but what de-facto says, consider it said by me too	01:14
de-facto	so then the question is, what is the viral load in 1) shedding from a Delta infection 2) threshold for triggering Delta infection	01:14
lavadonut	seems like the infection rate would be much higher if just anyone could get infected by 10 virions	01:14
de-facto	we dont know the exact numbers without challenge trials (which are considered unethical in many societies)	01:14
de-facto	but we do know reproduction rates, and that already demonstrated that Delta is at least 150% more infectious than Alpha	01:15
de-facto	afaik that translates to something like an order of magnitude on cellular level or such	01:15
LjL	who cares, let's say it's still 10 virions, heck let's say it's 100. in your smoking analogy, how many particles do you think could enter your airways from that smoke? whatever that number is, consider that an old study from air in Bergamo (Lombardy) showed that viral RNA was on random city particulate, so the particulate may likely help it persist. this is kind of hypothetical, but are you hypothetically going to avoid all smokers in case?	01:16
lavadonut	i didn't make a smoking analogy	01:16
LjL	de-facto did, and a lot of people are using it, and if you consider it invalid, then feel free to state why	01:16
de-facto	i just use it for demonstrating the generic transport pathways	01:17
de-facto	most people know that from everyday experience, hence it may help imagining	01:17
LjL	and in particular i'm making a scenario of someone smoking and having COVID and SARS-COV-2 being carried by smoke particles (again, a hypothetical, but backed by studies)	01:17
lavadonut	i don't know what smoke particles are made of or how their size and volume density compares to that of virions	01:18
LjL	but anyway in general yeah, if you think your university course tells you more about how many virions you might inhale than the simple fact that you can smell the smoke from someone several meters away very strongly... well, more power to your academic achievements	01:18
de-facto	i think its quite appropriate because particle size in aerosol and smoke are quite similar, hence also their aerodynamics can be assumed to be somewhat comparable in many aspects	01:18
de-facto	its not single virions, its tiny particles made from saliva that dry up to droplet cores that have similar size to smoke particles	01:19
de-facto	that drying up of course depends on atmospheric properties such as absolute humidity etc	01:19
LjL	(if it were single virions, no masks would help generally speaking)	01:20
de-facto	but i dont want to get into details, i just assume the "worst case" scenario when they dry up into droplet cores that basically "float" in the air for very long time	01:20
de-facto	well mask work due to diffusive collisions (sticking to the fibers), not due to sieve like filtering	01:21
LjL	de-facto, okay but i don't think they even claim to stop anything with the size and properties of individual virions, it's all based on stopping droplets and aerosol	01:22
de-facto	the most difficult particle size is 300nm	01:23
de-facto	everything above or below that is easier to filter	01:23
de-facto	yeah its aerosol particles anyhow	01:23
LjL	i suspect there is also a lower limit (or at least a lower tested limit), but i dunno	01:23
de-facto	single virions probably cant even escape fluid surface so easy anyhow	01:24
de-facto	https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HEPA#/media/File:Filteration_Collection_Mechanisms.png	01:24
LjL	i'm starting to feel a bit sore	01:24
LjL	not the arm, my back	01:25
de-facto	a single SARS-CoV-2 viron would be like 75-100nm or such	01:25
de-facto	back hurts?	01:25
LjL	yeah	01:25
LjL	although i sit improperly	01:25
de-facto	hmm weird never heard of that	01:25
LjL	but it hurts more than usual	01:25
LjL	de-facto, well i heard a lot of people saying they had muscle/"bone" aches all over	01:25
LjL	maybe not just back specifically, but maybe it's just starting	01:25
de-facto	maybe try to move it?	01:25
LjL	yeah i've sat badly for a while	01:26
LjL	if anything was going to get sore, i helped it :P	01:26
de-facto	throw in some nice tune and go for a dance? :D	01:26
LjL	de-facto, not before a full myocarditis check! ;P	01:26
de-facto	(i know sounds odd but helped me for some back pain)	01:26
LjL	well, in practical terms: i can't dance at all :P	01:27
de-facto	it does not matter how it looks, only thing that matters is moving it in all directions, activating all the muscles	01:27
de-facto	increasing metabolism for all the muscle groups	01:28
de-facto	actually thinking about it, i had back pain too, but weeks after the primer	01:30
de-facto	also heard from two others, in the very low end of the spine	01:30
de-facto	but i doubt it was due to vaccination, for me i changed my mattress, hence my back always dislikes that	01:31
de-facto	i went ahead and moved it as much as possible, that helped	01:31
LjL	de-facto: I've heard of people with possible longer-term side effects but they had had AZ (not to scare anyone, by longer term I mean a week later, not a year later! And also could be unrelated)	01:32
de-facto	yeah but eventually most likely will fade	01:36
de-facto	.title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30323-4/fulltext	01:37
Brainstorm	de-facto: From www.thelancet.com: Particle sizes of infectious aerosols: implications for infection control - The Lancet Respiratory Medicine	01:37
Brainstorm	Updates for Guatemala: +3069 cases (now 311342), +36 deaths (now 9609) since a day ago — Curacao: +10 cases (now 12364) since a day ago	01:37
r3m	after the second dose of a mrna vaccine, how many weeks will it take before one reach the maximal protection	01:39
de-facto	hmm maybe like 2 weeks after booster?	01:42
r3m	de-facto: thanks	01:42
de-facto	.title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2814-7	01:43
Brainstorm	de-facto: From www.nature.com: COVID-19 vaccine BNT162b1 elicits human antibody and T H 1 T cell responses \| Nature	01:43
de-facto	look at their Fig 1 and Fig 2	01:43
de-facto	oh wait	01:43
de-facto	correction r3m	01:44
de-facto	i meant BNT162b2 (not BNT162b1)	01:45
de-facto	hence this preprint instead	01:45
de-facto	.title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.09.20245175v1.full-text <-- Fig 1 a and Fig 1 b	01:45
r3m	thanks appreaciate it!	01:45
Brainstorm	de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: BNT162b2 induces SARS-CoV-2-neutralising antibodies and T cells in humans \| medRxiv	01:45
de-facto	they got their booster 3 weeks after primer there	01:46
de-facto	hence at day 22	01:46
de-facto	so roughly 1-2 weeks after that it seems their neutralization level were maximal	01:46
r3m	de-facto: I heard lately that too much omega-3 can affect the immune system (like more than 3,000mg/days) so I'll reduce my taking for at least two weeks to not interfere with it (does what I say even make sense?)	01:48
de-facto	another one would be Moderna, probably similar to BioNTech/Pfizer	01:49
de-facto	.title https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2032195	01:49
Brainstorm	de-facto: From www.nejm.org: Durability of Responses after SARS-CoV-2 mRNA-1273 Vaccination \| NEJM	01:49
LjL	de-facto, hmm is BNT162b2 what BNT developed after the SA variant?	01:50
r3m	de-facto: some sustance may interfere with the immune system and by the same token, create less antibodies ?	01:50
LjL	it looks earlier	01:50
de-facto	BNT162b2 is the one in use right now, b1 was never on market afaik	01:51
LjL	oh	01:51
LjL	do you know what changed?	01:51
de-facto	i would have to google it but basically they develpped many versions and tested which would be most efficient	01:51
r3m	are you guys aware of any substances that may intereact with the immune system and create less antibodies or this is not the way it works	01:51
de-facto	all based on the initial Wuhan sequence	01:51
de-facto	r3m i am not sure, about omega3 but in general of course substances have influence on immune system response, so yeah eating as "normal" as possible while focusing on high quality healthy and diverse foods probably is a good isea	01:52
de-facto	*idea	01:52
r3m	thanks! will wait at least 2 weeks	01:53
de-facto	as well as living as healthy as possible, good sleep, moderate movement etc	01:53
LjL	r3m, i think there might definitely exist such substances but also that it's not studied enough to give specific advice. in some countries, alcohol was recommended against, but then from what i saw, moderate amounts of alcohols were not found detrimental to the immune system in previous studies (high doses, and for a long time, yes)	01:53
de-facto	enough drinking water, no alcohol, no coffee, no sports with high pulse rates	01:53
LjL	yeah as for practical advice, listen to de-facto	01:53
de-facto	all such things, not officially recommended but those would make sense to me	01:54
LjL	there might be specific substances that help/hinder but we don't know them, so don't fret about them, the less you fret, the better the immune system will be :P	01:54
r3m	LjL: thanks, one of the substance I am a bit afraid of is lion's mane, mushroom are so powerful, but I read that lion's mane is actually good for the immune system so i guess this is not a problem, but will wait 2 weeks before taking it	01:54
LjL	nooo idea	01:54
de-facto	yeah dont experiment with it, just assume it is approved to work pretty well for "normal" people in the trials, without any tweaking	01:55
LjL	looks like that's a highly praised mushroom, but it's the first time i hear of it	01:55
r3m	LjL: this is a very very good nootropics	01:55
r3m	de-facto: gotcha thanks again	01:56
LjL	i was reading it was praised simply for cooking	01:56
LjL	as in being a highly edible and nommy mushroom	01:56
LjL	r3m, anyway, common-sense wise, a stimulant may make you sleep less which in turn may not be good for the immune system (see also de-facto's recommendation about coffee, although i didn't follow his recommendation about alcohol anyway :P)	01:58
r3m	i agree	01:58
LjL	de-facto, (but to be fair i half-followed it, i drank a much smaller amount for three days!)	01:58
de-facto	it probably does not have too much impact, but how would we know without trial?	01:59
de-facto	what we do know form the trial is that it works pretty well for "normal" people, so i assume some of them also drink coffee (but maybe even more dont) same for alc	02:00
de-facto	so we can be pretty sure it works very well without coffee or alc or such things	02:01
de-facto	if it will work better or worse with consuming those, we only would know if it was included as separating arms in the trials	02:02
Brainstorm	Updates for India: +263 deaths (now 405028) since 17 hours ago — Canada: +18 deaths (now 26405) since 23 hours ago	02:02
de-facto	there are papers suggesting that caffeine dependent reduction of antibodies in mice (when challenged with some complex protein), if that is the case in humans or vaccinations, we dont know	02:03
de-facto	but we do know it works without caffeine (or those amounts that were consumed by trial participants, i assume normal amounts)	02:05
de-facto	(those two substances only as example)	02:05
de-facto	i cant remember when i did drink alcohol last time, but i drink coffee every day	02:06
de-facto	i paused for a few weeks after i read that paper, but i started again	02:07
de-facto	hmm maybe i should ramp it down for next tuesday	02:07
r3m	same here, I need my three cup of coffees	02:07
r3m	I should reduce to one, three is a bit too much	02:08
de-facto	yeah reducing is probably a good idea	02:08
de-facto	drink green tea instead :)	02:09
de-facto	after being fully vaccinated though	02:09
r3m	I drink one cup of matcha everyday, plus the coffee it is really too much	02:09
de-facto	no idea how that would influence vaccinations	02:09
de-facto	yeah me too	02:09
de-facto	i very much love matcha	02:09
r3m	asian drinks up to 10 cup of green tea everyday	02:10
r3m	yes matcha is good	02:10
de-facto	yeah i think many Chinese prepare Green Tea in the morning, put it into a thermo-isolating can and then drink it during the day on work	02:10
de-facto	probably also Japanese	02:11
de-facto	but i have absolutely no clue if that affects vaccinations, hence i pause it too	02:11
de-facto	will start like 2 weeks after booster	02:12
r3m	yes anyway it is only for 2 weeks	02:12
de-facto	yeah exactly	02:14
r3m	I think what make me fear the virus the most is the long-hauler form of the covid, this looks like permanent damage to the brain	02:15
r3m	death or hospitalisation for me is not as scary as having the long-hauler form, which looks like permanent damage	02:16
de-facto	we dont know if its permament damage	02:16
r3m	yes too soon to tell	02:17
de-facto	also we dont know for how many cases it would appear etc, we need more data and over longer periods	02:17
de-facto	the brain rearranges constantly, making new connections and removing old ones etc	02:18
LjL	i think we do know it's subjectively scary for many people and that matters	02:18
de-facto	its not that easy but yeah volume lost of regions is a bit worrisome i guess	02:18
r3m	I'm also so sad for the doctor, nurse and everyone else who believe in the danger of covid and had to heard everyday the same thing "Doctor, I should have believe that covid is not just a flu/cold"	02:19
r3m	sorry btw my english is bad I am french	02:19
de-facto	yes i agree it is potentially scary because it shows something may be going on for some people	02:19
r3m	I'm not an expert but I have faith that vaccine will protect (not as much) against future variant because people who got sras in 2003 show protection against sars cov 2	02:21
r3m	17 years later	02:21
de-facto	yeah its probably really frustrating for healthcare workers to see ignorant people ending up in urgent need for medical help with their severe progressions, especially because the info is available everywhere about the properties of COVID and how to protect against infection etc	02:22
r3m	de-facto: exactly	02:22
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Delta Variant of COVID-19 Spreads in Seconds, Chinese Government Says - Vision Times → https://is.gd/iDZ9nr	02:22
de-facto	not because they ended up there, but because it would have been avoidable cases if they did not ignore the facts	02:23
r3m	yes	02:23
LjL	my arm itches	02:24
LjL	i haven't touched it yet in the vaccine spot, but now i want to :P	02:24
r3m	nowadays everyone with just a high school diplome think they know better than scientist with a PhD...	02:24
de-facto	and for every of those there are many more infections in society, just because hospitalization rates (fortunately) are low (compared to other diseases)	02:24
de-facto	LjL, you may cool it with some wet towel or such if its heating up	02:25
de-facto	.title https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/expect/after.html	02:25
Brainstorm	de-facto: From www.cdc.gov: Possible Side Effects After Getting a COVID-19 Vaccine \| CDC	02:25
r3m	I feel almost nothing for the second dose, less than for the first	02:25
de-facto	"Apply a clean, cool, wet washcloth over the area."	02:25
de-facto	"Use or exercise your arm."	02:25
r3m	the first i was a bit dizzy	02:25
de-facto	BioNTech?	02:26
r3m	moderna both dose	02:26
de-facto	good to know that, i am going to get Moderna on Tuesday	02:26
de-facto	second dose	02:26
r3m	de-facto: first was pfizer ?	02:26
de-facto	r2m same or other arm?	02:26
de-facto	nope also Moderna primer	02:27
r3m	same arm	02:27
de-facto	it just was what they offered me	02:27
de-facto	1st of June	02:27
r3m	yes same here, "are you fine with moderna? sure!"	02:27
de-facto	its approved, its widely used, i am fine with it	02:27
r3m	I would have be fine with astra but I still prefer to get one of these futurist mrna vaccine	02:28
de-facto	i would have taken all of the approved ones	02:29
de-facto	it was really difficult to get an appointment though	02:29
r3m	same for me	02:29
r3m	I have a medical condition so i was in the first	02:29
LjL	de-facto, don't think it's heating up, it just feels itchy and while i don't want to scratch it because i fear that would be painful, my body is telling me to scratch it :P	02:29
LjL	i've already been narrowly avoiding walls all days	02:30
r3m	LjL put some vodka on it :P	02:30
LjL	because i have kind of a tendency to bump into walls	02:30
de-facto	bump into walls?	02:30
r3m	well thanks for the information to both of you, appreaciate it, have a good night	02:30
de-facto	have a good sleep	02:31
LjL	de-facto, that CDC page looks good, it sets realistic expectations instead of lying that your side effects will be minimal, especially after second dose	02:31
de-facto	LjL, i dont think you can damage anything, it may hurt though	02:31
de-facto	yeah	02:31
LjL	tell people the reasoned truth, it's what i've always said about all this	02:32
de-facto	exactly and being transparent	02:32
LjL	sometimes the truth is "we really don't know", sometimes it's "yeah your second shot will suck, but only for a day or two"	02:32
de-facto	CDC does that (among others)	02:32
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: China's COVID vaccine fail: The country's shots may be ineffective at preventing virus spread → https://is.gd/u0efOj	02:33
LjL	de-facto, one small detail of stupidity about the system in Lombardy: i moved my second shot (2 days forward) since that started being allowed at some point to ease people's holidays, and the site made me print a new paper with QR code. i gave the check-in person that paper, and said "i have the original one too here", and they said something like "yeah we need that, no vaccine without that". now i think although a careful person would think of keeping and	02:36
LjL	bringing both, i'm sure many people would just assume that since they printed a new sheet with a new date and a new code, that will be enough. but i wasn't given a warning anywhere during the process.	02:36
de-facto	thats quite weird indeed, whats the second QR code used for then?	02:37
Brainstorm	Updates for Netherlands: +3630 cases (now 1.7 million), +2 deaths (now 17903) since 21 hours ago — Cyprus: +993 cases (now 81581) since a day ago — Malawi: +427 cases (now 37983), +9 deaths (now 1227) since a day ago — France: +19 deaths (now 111373) since 21 hours ago	02:40
LjL	de-facto, well, the original paper had two QR codes, i think the first one contains information about your 1st shot, and the second one has the code for your 2nd shot appointment. the new paper probably replaces the 2nd but not the 2st code.	02:40
LjL	err	02:40
LjL	the 2nd but not the 1st	02:40
de-facto	yeah but then if why would they require the old 2nd hence dont use the new 2nd	02:41
de-facto	for boosting	02:42
LjL	de-facto, another thing, i've mindlessly added my green certificate to the Immuni app, mainly just to see if it worked, but i'm thinking now, isn't it a bad idea for privacy to have one app that does both contact tracing and keeps your certificates? the contact tracing apps were promised to be fully anonymous, but if i add the certificates, now the app knows my name and everything	02:42
de-facto	i mean if they give out a new 2nd it should have some purpose associated with it	02:42
LjL	de-facto, it does	02:42
LjL	original papers: has two QR codes, one about 1st dose, one about 2nd dose	02:43
LjL	new paper: has one QR code, only about the changed appointment for the 2nd dose	02:43
LjL	they still need one (out of two) QRs from the original paper	02:43
LjL	they also need the one in the new paper	02:43
de-facto	ah so the new one is used too and the old one to establish the link	02:43
LjL	i mean, it's a pretty soft "need", in reality they should have all the information in the integrated healthcare system...	02:43
de-facto	lol why cant they remember that from the system that generates it	02:43
de-facto	associalte new 2nd with old 1st	02:44
Brainstorm	New from StatNews: Pfizer to seek FDA authorization for third, booster dose of its Covid-19 vaccine: Pfizer is about to seek U.S. authorization for a third dose of its Covid-19 vaccine, saying Thursday that another shot within 12 months could dramatically boost immunity. → https://is.gd/hXLner	02:44
LjL	yeah, although really, they know my healthcare card number, so i don't see why they can't establish the link anyway	02:44
de-facto	yeah exactly it should be one row in their db anyhow	02:44
LjL	yeah i dunno. if i go on my healthcare page, i can see that i've got one shot / two shots, when, where, of what type, and everything	02:44
LjL	i assume they can see it too	02:44
de-facto	Pfizer better should be developing an update signature	02:45
de-facto	or BioNTech	02:45
de-facto	for multivalent vaccinations covering more variants, spreading the immunity with more diversity so lowering the probability of evasion	02:45
de-facto	i think there is benefit from stimulating the immune system each time with a slightly changed antigen signature, exactly as natural infection also would do it	02:46
LjL	de-facto, but look... to tell you how things work here sometimes... at the start of the vaccination campaign, Lombardy's system basically messed up completely. they were supposed to be calling/texting people, but that just wasn't happening. it was handled by a company belonging to the Lombardy region, and that company got under scrutiny, and the central government realized that company was basically inept. so at some point they decided to switch the responsibility	02:47
LjL	over to Poste.it, which was already handling the same thing for many other regions... but it took two weeks to move data from the old company over to Poste.it	02:47
LjL	so i wouldn't be exceptionally surprised if these people don't have access to the same healthcare data i can easily see on the internet for myself	02:47
LjL	it seems obvious that they should have access, but it's Italy, so nothing is obvious ;(	02:47
de-facto	oh so you can login and see your dataset?	02:48
de-facto	or what do you mean by that you can see your healthcare data on the internet yourself?	02:48
LjL	de-facto, yeah, and i can print my EU certificate from there too	02:49
de-facto	huh thats nice	02:49
LjL	i can also print the list of all my vaccinations, not just COVID	02:49
de-facto	well thats awesome	02:49
de-facto	i wish we had something like that	02:49
LjL	de-facto, for a long time it was very hard to access, though... italy again	02:49
LjL	you required a chip reader for your healthcare card	02:50
LjL	and the drivers for it	02:50
de-facto	at least you got something like that, i am not aware of anything like that in Germany	02:50
LjL	and had to physically go to the region's headquarters to obtain a PIN code for the card	02:50
de-facto	idk Italy is quite innovative sometimes, its quite neat	02:50
LjL	then they made it accessible to electronic ID cards too, but many people don't have one of those yet, and those who do often have one with an RFID chip, that doesn't work in the kind of reader you'd use for the healthcare card -.-	02:51
LjL	and eventually, they made it accessible using SPID, which is the central government's new e-ID system for "everything"	02:51
LjL	%wik SPID	02:51
Brainstorm	TypeError: argument of type 'NoneType' is not iterable (file "/home/brainstorm/brainstorm/bot/natlang.py", line 362, in langcode)	02:51
LjL	%wik How to make IRC bots	02:51
Brainstorm	TypeError: argument of type 'NoneType' is not iterable (file "/home/brainstorm/brainstorm/bot/natlang.py", line 362, in langcode)	02:51
* de-facto pities Brainstorm		02:52
Brainstorm	de-facto: Do as you wish!	02:52
* de-facto did as he wished		02:52
de-facto	yeah i also wanted to look into such card readers, for electronic id signatures, but the drivers are quite complicated on linux	02:54
LjL	de-facto, this SPID got me mad too, anyway, because even though it's a government system, it's provided by several private companies that have a contract with the government, and you can choose the one you like (most people would have no clue how to choose). i tried a number of them, and they all wanted their goddamned proprietary app for 2FA to login. eventually i found just one provider that accepts to send SMS instead.	02:54
LjL	de-facto, actually i haven't had too many issues on Linux, i don't remember the procedure now, it's certainly annoying and not just plug-and-play, but it worked. for me and my parents... we don't really have Windows computers	02:55
LjL	de-facto, if you use cards with an RFIC/NFC chip, you can use your phone as reader, there are a couple of neat apps for that on F-Droid	02:56
LjL	but obviously it's easier to just buy a reader, especially if it's not an NFC card	02:56
de-facto	thats neat , yeah there is a complete stack for that eID thingy for linux, not sure if we have anything healthcare cards	02:57
de-facto	correction: of course we have electronic healthcare cards, but afaik no applications for the end user	02:58
LjL	de-facto, there is one application that lets you decode many types of cards, including "French healthcare cards", which turn out to be identical to Italian ones (so maybe German ones too?)... i don't remember the name right now, as usual...	02:58
LjL	de-facto, Cardpeek	02:58
LjL	it's in Debian's repos	02:59
LjL	de-facto, a reader is just about €10-15 from Amazon so you may as well try to play with it	02:59
de-facto	interesting	03:00
de-facto	nice one, but i dont have a reader	03:03
* LjL-Matrix uploaded an image: (199KiB) < https://libera.ems.host/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/BTWCMIhXrsKpFCJeNIYXqdqI/Screenshot%20from%202021-07-09%2003-01-11.png >		03:03
LjL-Matrix	de-facto: ↑	03:03
LjL-Matrix	that would also have test results, except I never took any test	03:04
LjL-Matrix	also tell me when you've seen it :P	03:04
de-facto	seen it	03:04
LjL	removing it, just because it had the lot number, not a big deal	03:05
de-facto	yeah	03:05
de-facto	its nice that they conncet it in one place	03:06
LjL	the same website, outside of the COVID section, also shows any current medical prescriptions i can print (although during the emergency period, i just get SMS with numbers and i can show those to the pharmacy... not sure why they can't continue with the fully-electronic system outside of the emergency, tbh), and any exam results from the public healthcare system (this part is important because if i go to private structures, even if they are affiliated to the	03:06
LjL	public healthcare, stuff may not show up there)	03:06
LjL	also i can book appointments with specialists or for exams, although that's pretty awful and generally doesn't work or only gives me very far-away appointments in places away from Milan, so it's really better to just call individual cliniics	03:07
de-facto	afaik here its with the CW App, so data via QR code on the phone, yet then there also is a db behind it anyhow, so why not provide website for end users?	03:07
LjL	and, of course, a section with pending co-payments to pay :P	03:07
de-facto	(well maybe they do, i hope i know more next Tuesday)	03:07
LjL	it also shows me who/when last accessed the site, divided between myself, my GP, and any ER access	03:07
de-facto	that sounds quite useful i wish we had something like that	03:09
LjL	de-facto, well a funny thing is that the Swiss COVID app only really allows adding a new certificate by scanning it from paper. no electronic means. but then guess what? the Italian app only allows to add one from an "authcode". you can't just scan a QR code from paper. which is absurd, because if you have it on paper, and you want it on your phone, but you don't have an authcode for some reason, well, you can't have it on Immuni	03:09
de-facto	if i want something i call a MD via phone	03:09
de-facto	lol	03:09
LjL	by the way, today (well, yesterday) Switzerland implemented the agreement with the EU to share green certificates	03:09
LjL	so starting today, the Swiss app i have installed from F-Droid says that my certificate is valid	03:09
LjL	until yesterday it said the signature was invalid	03:09
de-facto	its a good thing to have a standard way to validate vaccinations, but i fear its going to promote traveling without any testing or quarantine, so from that perspective (ignoring breakthrough imports) it may not be as good	03:10
LjL	de-facto, i think from a pragmatic perspective, the EU was totally never meaning to keep travel locked down for longer (in fact it has barely been locked down ever), so having at least some means to make it a little controlled is better than nothing	03:11
de-facto	but on the other hand it may motivate more people to get their vaccinations, so it always got two aspects	03:11
LjL	i'd say three :P	03:12
LjL	by which i mean, i know you'd want a quarantine for all travel	03:12
LjL	but just about the entire world (and certainly the EU) disagrees with you	03:12
de-facto	yes of course	03:12
LjL	so the next best thing is some degree of checks	03:12
de-facto	i know its not going to happen (quarantine for traveling) and that is exactly the reason why vaccinations will not end the pandemic	03:13
LjL	maybe, but i think we've shown over and over that we only learn things the hard way (if at all)	03:13
de-facto	we always mix all the variants and mutations from all over the world together, always testing all variants worldwide against all nation wide deployed vaccinations	03:13
LjL	right now, Europe-wise, Italy only requires a quarantine from the UK, and it's just 5 days, and there's no one to actually check that you do it	03:14
de-facto	so basically its bruteforcing against any vaccine with the combined power of incidence all around the world	03:14
de-facto	i am really worried about EU right now	03:14
LjL	you might like Canada better	03:14
de-facto	R>2 scenarios are horrible	03:15
LjL	Trudeau said they won't allow unvaccinated travellers "for quite a while"	03:15
LjL	%title https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/ogesvt/unvaccinated_tourists_wont_be_welcome_in_canada/	03:15
Brainstorm	LjL: From old.reddit.com: Unvaccinated tourists won't be welcome in Canada for 'quite a while,' PM Trudeau says : worldnews	03:15
de-facto	if i was in charge i would shut down traveling of any kind without absolutely strict quarantine, no exceptions in any case	03:15
LjL	+1 to your count of "absolutely strict", remember i keep count :P	03:16
LjL	although now it will be harder as i will have to account for both freenode and libera :P	03:16
de-facto	yeah i use this phrase when i get frustrated about compromises being made that really circumvent containment efforts in other places	03:17
LjL	hm some days ago i saw something (but didn't read it, just the headline) about the UK providing sequencing for other countries	03:18
LjL	but it's not in my IRC logs, so not sure where i saw it	03:19
jacklsw	either here or ##coronavirus?	03:19
de-facto	it would be quite helpful if we had a representative view about lineage evolution worldwide	03:19
LjL	"The first countries to benefit from this support and expertise will be Brazil, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, and Pakistan."	03:20
LjL	as i was suspecting, not the EU :P they don't much like the EU lately	03:20
LjL	jacklsw, well i checked ##coronalinks	03:20
LjL	and also my own private channel where Brainstorm spews out a ton of reddit posts even before they reach here	03:20
LjL	https://www.gov.uk/government/news/phe-to-provide-genomic-sequencing-support-to-partners-across-the-world	03:20
LjL	(found on google)	03:20
LjL	or https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/uk-track-covid-19-variants-with-genomic-sequencing-across-world-2021-07-07/	03:21
LjL	Brazil, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, Pakistan, Singapore, and the Africa Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, which adds to Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Albania	03:21
LjL	https://www.gov.uk/guidance/new-variant-assessment-platform	03:22
de-facto	this would be very cool, to have a global sequencing network	03:25
de-facto	it not only would be useable for covid but for all kinds of pathogen	03:25
LjL	de-facto, they mention that	03:25
LjL	"Genomic sequencing has wider utility beyond COVID-19, for example to understand and control risks such as tuberculosis (TB), antimicrobial resistance (AMR), polio and HIV, as well as for future pandemic risks."	03:25
de-facto	but the problem may be (for an unknown pathogen) the first isolation	03:26
LjL	if the UK has so much more sequencing abilities than even other advanced countries, it makes sense to use it	03:26
LjL	but not all things that make sense are done, unfortunately	03:26
LjL	at least this one is	03:26
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Recent Commits to links:master: Add PHE (UK gov) press release about helping provide sequencing for o… ( https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/3ece8ed6cc9c1d253b487a8bcf8c5d2d75d4787b )		03:27
LjL	de-facto, well, the UK has genomic sequencing at scale, while for first isolation you may need something slightly different: good, fast sequencing available when required for an important reason, but not necessarily at scale. for instance Kerala identified Nipah very rapidly when they had that outbreak (fortunately, as that could have become a pandemic, and killed many more people)	03:28
LjL	i guess it needed several factors to work well together	03:29
LjL	namely, the doctors who quickly realized they were seeing something highly unusual	03:29
LjL	and so decided to send a sample for sequencing	03:29
de-facto	oh yeah its urgently important to check that as soon as possible for identifying and knowing the potential properties if its something already known	03:29
de-facto	e.g. Nipah	03:29
de-facto	that thing is very scary	03:29
LjL	there are many diseases endemic in India, so they may have just assumed it was something else	03:30
LjL	but instead one of the first patients was quickly seen by a doctor who realized the presentation was unusual for other diseases, and had a sample sent to a lab	03:30
LjL	so you needed 1) a smart doctor, 2) smart superiors to allow that doctor to send samples to a state lab, 3) the state lab to work quickly and efficiently	03:30
de-facto	this is exactly the type of thing that needs to happen more, innovation coming out of the pandemic, improving capabilities and biosecurity worldwide	03:31
de-facto	also a system that does not allow suppression of information	03:32
de-facto	time is super critical at the very early stage	03:32
de-facto	like every hour counts, people traveling etc	03:32
de-facto	if government has to decide if they have to separate and completely isolate the origin area, its a big decision and it should depend on proper results	03:33
LjL	de-facto, yeah well so for a start we need to stop saying "let's ignore how this started, we'll never find out anyway, and the ones who think it was a lab leak are all just conspiracy theorists"	03:33
de-facto	hence such a sequence may mean the difference between containment and start of a pandemic	03:33
LjL	let's have a good look at virology labs and what they're doing, in China and outside of China	03:34
LjL	because if we're going to not suppress obvious information: this obviously came from a lba	03:34
LjL	lab also	03:34
LjL	look at recent tweets from jbloom_lab just to get an idea how frustrated people in the field can be getting about this	03:34
IndoAnon	de-facto: yea	03:35
Brainstorm	New from https://covid19.specops.network : ljl-covid: Add PHE (UK gov) press release about helping provide sequencing for o… → https://is.gd/WrFUNa	03:35
de-facto	i meant as soon as people become aware something unusual is going on they should have the possibility to alert a system, to force officials to investigate and sequence, go down the rabbit hole and understand what is happening	03:35
LjL	de-facto, yes, and that never happened in China, or not transparently anyway, and so this had time to spread AND we'll never know for sure where it came from	03:36
de-facto	if its something harmless, very well, lucky people, but if its something like Nipah or unknown new virus, well then its urgently important that officials cant hide it and public pressure forces them to act as soon as possible	03:37
LjL	uhm, today i was told the last paper they gave me was a vaccine certificate, i didn't really look but i assumed it was a green pass. but it isn't. it's some other QR code and it doesn't contain the authcode needed to get a green certificate. so for now, i still only have the 1st shot's certificate (which is invalid in most countries)	03:38
LjL	last time i got the authcode as an SMS after a couple of days, hopefully the same will happen. but not sure why they can't just give it directly now.	03:40
de-facto	hmm tbh the more i think about it the more i am against vaccine green pass, because it will punch holes through biosecurity concepts that wont accept vaccine breakthrough as a real thing (which is a perfectly normal thing to happen with any vaccination)	03:40
de-facto	and politicians are so astronomically stupid, they will compete again for the most liberal concept, hence their concept will not accept vaccine breakthrough as a reality	03:41
LjL	those biosecurity concepts you are thinking of weren't going to exist anyway	03:42
de-facto	so this whole thing may lead to even more mutant mobility, and with selection for the ones that really could get a vaccinated population into trouble	03:42
LjL	what are you punching holes in? it's not like we have huge quarantines for travellers now	03:42
LjL	nor are there any plans for them	03:42
LjL	you're punching holes in the air	03:42
de-facto	holes punching into testing and quarantine concepts	03:43
de-facto	why would fully vaccinated not be tested	03:43
de-facto	thats plain stupid imho	03:43
LjL	but what EU country does testing and quarantine?	03:43
LjL	contact tracing has been almost completely forgotten about in italy	03:43
LjL	contacts are almost never traced	03:43
LjL	you quarantine if you have a fever and/or get a positive test for some reason, that's all	03:43
LjL	and it's not a quarantine that anybody really checks	03:44
LjL	%tr <it >en isolamento fiduciario	03:44
Brainstorm	LjL, Italian to English: trust isolation (MyMemory) — fiduciary isolation (Google)	03:44
LjL	that's what they call it	03:44
de-facto	yeah thats the next thing, i would have people quarantine in hotels that are controlled by military 24/7 and them paying for that	03:44
LjL	at least i know in Greece you need to take a (free) rapid test to go to university exams and things like that	03:44
LjL	de-facto, yes, but we don't have that, so again, what are you punching holes in? something we don't have!	03:45
de-facto	testing	03:45
LjL	so how are vaccine green passes making the situation worse?	03:45
de-facto	by assuming negative test is exactly the same as fully vaccinated or recovered	03:45
LjL	i think in most cases someone travelling with a negative test is at more risk of actually having COVID than someone fully vaccinated	03:46
LjL	tests can be negative for many reasons	03:46
de-facto	and dropping quarantine requirements	03:46
LjL	even when you are full of COVID	03:46
LjL	de-facto, the certificates are only valid within the EU/Schengen anyway, for now. there were no quarantine requirements within Schengen, afaik	03:46
LjL	right now people can drive from Italy to France without any test, any check, anything	03:47
de-facto	well a negative test is valid for the moment, so if someone sheds virus on the environment the resultshould become positive	03:47
LjL	yes but it's not valid for the following day when they'll be on a beach or in a restaurant or whatever	03:47
LjL	so i'm not sure how "valid" that is	03:48
LjL	yes, right now you aren't shedding the virus. so feel free to enter this country and shed it tomorrow!	03:48
de-facto	but if vaccination have more and more breakthrough, lowering efficacy against symptomatic infections even, it means those surely also are shedding virus	03:48
de-facto	we can see that at Israel	03:48
de-facto	fully vaccinated carrying Delta and infecting others at gatherings	03:48
LjL	i'm not sure what we can actually see in Israel, i still haven't actually seen this fabled "70%/64%" study	03:48
de-facto	yeah true	03:49
de-facto	but they claim such things, but you are correct we need more and more representative data	03:49
LjL	de-facto, i assume you don't still have that thing where to go to non-essential shops you need a negative quick test?	03:49
de-facto	with they i mean press states taht	03:49
de-facto	LjL, not anymore since incidence went down	03:50
de-facto	but masks are absolutely mandatory	03:50
LjL	yes, i really want to see these claims in an actual study, because i find that low percentage very suspicious compared to other information we have about how Pfizer performs...	03:50
de-facto	i meant the breakthrough cases being infectious	03:50
LjL	de-facto, Israel had dropped the indoor mask requirements, but now they're reinstating them. at the same time, the UK is dropping them...	03:51
LjL	i think this is a much more serious issue than green passes	03:51
de-facto	yes	03:51
LjL	countries SEEING CLEARLY that other countries are going like "nope, with Delta this is not tenable" and not caring and doing the same wrong thing anyway	03:51
de-facto	let it burn through 2.0	03:51
LjL	which has been the leitmotif all along since january 2020	03:51
de-facto	i think we heard about that in 2020 already	03:51
de-facto	yeah	03:51
LjL	we're saying the same things pretty much, we've been obsessing on this for too long :P	03:52
de-facto	oh well	03:52
de-facto	i am going to get some sleep, you should too LjL you just got boosted	03:54
LjL	well, it's been 10 hours since my jab and i still don't feel anything	03:54
LjL	starting to think my immune system is on vacation	03:54
LjL	but goodnight	03:55
LjL	maybe i'll feel terrible tomorrow \o/	03:55
LjL	and i hope my friend doesn't have COVID ;(	03:55
de-facto	good night, have a good sleep	03:55
Brainstorm	Updates for Gambia: +67 cases (now 6183) since 3 days ago	04:07
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: Cases of Lambda Covid-19 variant found in Canada → https://is.gd/u4bELo	05:10
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: Sydney to face prolonged Covid-19 lockdown amid record cases → https://is.gd/zzWhKS	05:20
* Krey[m] uploaded an image: (521KiB) < https://libera.ems.host/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/tvExhvqcTwCcYAKsszqDQEig/image.png >		05:21
Krey[m]	> UK's deadliest strain, THE JOHNSON VARIANT	05:21
Krey[m]	> "Let the bodies pile high in their thousands"	05:21
Krey[m]	https://youtu.be/XR0wAca90_w?t=202	05:24
Krey[m]	They do aspiration in japan O.o	05:24
Brainstorm	Updates for Mexico: +9452 cases (now 2.6 million), +266 deaths (now 234458) since a day ago — Thailand: +9276 cases (now 317506), +72 deaths (now 2534) since a day ago — South Korea: +1316 cases (now 165344), +2 deaths (now 2036) since a day ago — Australia: +47 cases (now 30951) since 15 hours ago	05:34
Brainstorm	Updates for Belgium: +1382 cases (now 1.1 million) since 23 hours ago	05:59
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: Pfizer to seek OK for 3rd vaccine dose; shots still protect → https://is.gd/dGDzjY	06:03
Brainstorm	Updates for Germany: +77 deaths (now 91525) since 17 hours ago	06:36
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Japan man vaccinated 4 times: 'I thought it would be more effective' → https://is.gd/5q1nkB	06:56
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Here’s why COVID-19 variants are being identified by the Greek alphabet → https://is.gd/MpQuQm	07:06
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express (Health): Health: How well do antibodies work against the Delta variant? Here’s what experts say → https://is.gd/uD1HzX	07:28
Brainstorm	Updates for England, United Kingdom: +27847 cases (now 4.4 million), +31 deaths (now 112858) since a day ago — California, United States: +3434 cases (now 3.8 million), +53 deaths (now 63815) since a day ago — Mexico City, Mexico: +3238 cases (now 701281), +30 deaths (now 34858) since a day ago — Saint Petersburg, Russia: +1937 cases (now 483992), +101 deaths (now 17183) since a day ago	07:39
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Cuba says second COVID-19 vaccine Soberana 2 boasts 91.2% efficacy → https://is.gd/ioVcNz	07:49
Brainstorm	Updates for India: +43393 cases (now 30.8 million), +792 deaths (now 405645) since 15 hours ago — Turks and Caicos: +5 cases (now 2430) since 8 days ago	08:41
Brainstorm	New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread \| July 09, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://is.gd/fypc3M	09:03
Brainstorm	Updates for Laos: +68 cases (now 2537) since a day ago	09:31
Brainstorm	New from EMA: What's new: General: COVID-19 vaccines: research and development → https://is.gd/B7dTc0	09:56
Brainstorm	Updates for Mauritania: +102 cases (now 21405) since a day ago	10:08
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: South Korea puts Seoul under tightest COVID curbs amid new case records → https://is.gd/kP3hqn	10:38
Brainstorm	New from StatNews: Pharma: STAT+: FDA extends shelf life for glaucoma drug discontinued by Pfizer, but patients remain concerned → https://is.gd/PIK3xB	10:49
Brainstorm	New from NPR: Officials Raise Restrictions In Seoul Amid Another Wave Of COVID-19 Infections: On Friday, South Korea registered more than 1,300 coronavirus cases — breaking records for a second day in a row. Residents of the capital region are driving the surge. → https://is.gd/QuKZ1R	10:59
Brainstorm	New from EMA: What's new: General: COVID-19: latest updates → https://is.gd/ejWHzQ	11:20
Brainstorm	New from Francois Balloux: @BallouxFrancois: R to @BallouxFrancois: I don't doubt most mean well, even those who wish me harm. Though, neither the 'let it rip' or 'zerocovid' crowd are proposing helpful long-term public health strategies. It would be nice, at least for the tone of the discussion, if more could reflect on this point.6/ → https://is.gd/a4YHFf	11:52
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: North Korea rejected AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine over side effects, says think-tank → https://is.gd/QB0Vqa	12:34
Brainstorm	New from EMA: News and press releases: (news): EMA advises against use of COVID-19 Vaccine Janssen in people with history of capillary leak syndrome, PRAC, 09/07/2021 → https://is.gd/1Ujiq2	13:07
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro used foul language Thursday as he said he would refuse to answer corruption charges that a Senate committee is investigating involving government vaccine purchases. → https://is.gd/NzBnAc	13:17
Krey[m]	nCoV-21? :P https://youtu.be/Wu-3X29MioE	13:19
de-facto	well we just discussed yesterday that its difficult to first identify the pathogen, as soon as that is done it can be sequenced	13:21
de-facto	correction: challenge to first isolate the pathogen	13:35
Krey[m]	that's some bird flu that is not known to be human transmissible did you think that i was talking about something like the novel bunyavirus or something x.x	13:35
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: Moscow mayor says Covid-19 situation stabilising, but cases still high → https://is.gd/Qft6F7	13:39
Brainstorm	Updates for Malaysia: +9180 cases (now 817838), +77 deaths (now 5980) since a day ago — Malta: +96 cases (now 30851) since a day ago — Germany: +2195 cases (now 3.7 million), +253 deaths (now 91701) since 23 hours ago	13:39
de-facto	no i just made a generic remark about unknown diseases	13:43
joerg	Germany: KW25 Delta ratio ~60%; KW27 (now) R_t > 1.0; 5.5/100k7d (from 5.0 5.1 5.2) - either we're lucky and Delta already reached almost 100% so R_t will sort of stabilize around 1.0, or we see R_t going to 1.3 or 1.4 during next few weeks and 4. wave started 2021-07-04	13:53
joerg	I guess we will see more NPI getting reverted to make sure it's the 2nd option	13:55
joerg	"we still got ICU beds with ventilators to hook up people to, to let them die there. So let's stop all this ALAH rules" (/sarcasm) :-S	13:59
Brainstorm	Updates for Nepal: +1479 cases (now 652859), +20 deaths (now 9340) since a day ago	14:04
Brainstorm	Updates for Libya: +1710 cases (now 201236), +5 deaths (now 3232) since 23 hours ago	14:29
martini_man[m]	https://freewestmedia.com/2021/06/27/surgeon-who-operated-on-young-italian-vaccine-victim-you-have-never-seen-anything-like-this/	14:55
Brainstorm	Updates for Belarus: +1250 cases (now 425804), +11 deaths (now 3236) since 23 hours ago — Gibraltar: +11 cases (now 4403) since a day ago	15:06
Brainstorm	New from Reddit (test): COVID19: COVID 19 has officially killed over 4 million globally → https://is.gd/3gDrhb	15:15
Brainstorm	New from Francois Balloux: @BallouxFrancois: The headline's terrible, but for those who manage to get passed it, this is a remarkably interesting article on the neurological effects of isolation and lack of social interactions. → https://is.gd/hw6Z1S	15:25
Brainstorm	New from The Indian Express: World: Vietnam sees record coronavirus cases as curbs tighten → https://is.gd/OLYcl4	15:36
-Bridgestorm- ⭕ Gempa bumi! Lindu! Earthquake! 6.0 Mw tremor, registered by EMSC,alomax, occurred 7 minutes ago (13:31:10 UTC), with a new moon, Molibagu, Indonesia (0.01, 123.77) ± 3 km, ↓45 km likely felt 270 km away (in Gorontalo, Kotamobagu…) by 266200 people (www.seismicportal.eu)		15:38
Brainstorm	New from Francois Balloux: @BallouxFrancois: If essentially every paediatrician I interacted with told me COVID fortunately tends to be a relatively mild disease in children. Should I conclude:A. They're all incompetent?B. They're all monsters?C. It's a massive political cover-up?D. It's likely true?Difficult ... 🤔 → https://is.gd/Aqzd6Z	15:47
Brainstorm	Updates for Bangladesh: +7883 cases (now 997102), +212 deaths (now 16004) since a day ago — Switzerland: +323 cases (now 704943) since a day ago	16:08
Brainstorm	New from ScienceNews: 50 years ago, scientists found a virus lurking in human cancer cells: In 1971, scientists were building a case for viruses as a cause of cancer. Fifty years later, cancer-preventing vaccines are now a reality. → https://is.gd/AIXXJl	16:09
joerg	>>v<< and I won't now sigh	16:13
joerg	>>italian-vaccine-victim-you-have-never-seen-anything-like-this/<< and I won't now sigh	16:13
joerg	just had my second jab, moderna aeeeeh (30s before jab) BNT	16:14
Brainstorm	New from StatNews: Pharma: STAT+: Pharmalittle: Even FDA officials balked at the broad Aduhelm label; CDC and FDA are dubious about Covid booster shots → https://is.gd/LSpeE3	16:20
Brainstorm	Updates for Azerbaijan: +174 cases (now 336962), +2 deaths (now 4982) since 23 hours ago	16:33
Brainstorm	New from BMJ Open: Economics of healthcare access in low-income and middle-income countries: a protocol for a scoping review of the economic impacts of seeking healthcare on slum-dwellers compared with other city residents: Introduction People living in slums face several challenges to access healthcare. Scarce and low-quality public health facilities [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/LhP2iu	17:03
Brainstorm	Updates for Germany: +2084 cases (now 3.7 million) since 23 hours ago	17:10
Brainstorm	New from LitCovid: (news): Health care worker sero-monitoring reveals complex relationships between common coronavirus antibodies and COVID-19 symptom duration. → https://is.gd/EKXdeE	17:24
Brainstorm	New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Macintosh Versus Macgrath for Laryngoscopy in COVID 19 Hypoxemic ICU Patients → https://is.gd/MHP72B	17:45
Brainstorm	Updates for United Kingdom: +35200 cases (now 5.1 million) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +13 deaths (now 26414) since 23 hours ago	18:00
LjL	Reopen everything Boris, reopen	18:04
Brainstorm	New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Effect of Hand-Washing Training in Covid-19 → https://is.gd/lZjLGO	18:06
Brainstorm	New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Collection of SARS CoV-2 (COVID-19) Virus Secretions and Serum for Countermeasure Development → https://is.gd/u6dtSn	18:17
LjL	de-facto: so much for a good night sleep, for some reason I couldn't fall asleep until 7am :(	18:22
Brainstorm	New from Emma Hodcroft: @firefoxx66: Unsurprisingly - where vaccination coverage lags, cases rise. Protect yourself: get vaccinated.(And Texas is apparently doing its "It's like a whole other country" thing. Again.) → https://is.gd/xUMQ01	18:28
yuta	RS virus is also spreading in Tokyo. Take care.	18:36
Brainstorm	Updates for Myanmar: +4320 cases (now 184375), +64 deaths (now 3685) since 23 hours ago — Italy: +1386 cases (now 4.3 million), +25 deaths (now 127756) since 23 hours ago	18:37
joerg	%efficiency J&J	18:38
Brainstorm	New from Scientific American: Mix-and-Match COVID Vaccines: The Case Is Growing, but Questions Remain: Empty vials of vaccines by Pfizer-BioNTech and AstraZeneca against Covid-19 caused by the novel coronavirus are pictured at the vaccination center in Rosenheim, southern Germany, on April 20, 2021. → https://is.gd/P5H95V	18:38
joerg	efficiency J&J ?	18:39
Juerd	Do you mean efficacy or effectiveness?	18:39
Raf[m]	%efficacy J&J	18:42
`St0ner	anyone against the covid vaccines in here?	18:54
LjL	Not for long	18:58
`St0ner	i gotta ask, what's with the [m] after a bunch of people's nicks	18:59
LjL	Raf[m]: there is no such command but %vax brings up the covidvax link (although I think J&J won't work a s search term) that has w lot of information, although efficacy per se is not just stated, you have to click on further info	18:59
LjL	%vax Janssen	18:59
Brainstorm	LjL, Ad26 alone or with MVA boost is a Non-replicating viral vector vaccine developed in Belgium + USA by Janssen (Johnson & Johnson) + Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (Harvard Medical School) + Emergent BioSolutions + Catalent + Sanofi + Merck, which started distribution initially on February 2021 → https://covidvax.org/covid19-vaccine/Janssen	18:59
joerg	Juerd: probably both would be interesting	19:01
LjL	`St0ner: they are connecting from Matrix, see matrix.org	19:03
LjL	%links vaccine tracker	19:04
Brainstorm	LjL, https://www.raps.org/RAPS/media/news-images/data/20201210-authorized-vax2-craven.csv (RAPS COVID-19 vaccine tracker approved vaccines CSV) and https://www.raps.org/RAPS/media/news-images/data/20201210-vax-candidates-Craven.csv (vaccines candidates in development CSV) [... want %more?]	19:04
LjL	Nice, that's not the one I was looking for, but also, it's a 404	19:04
Raf[m]	Oh interesting. I was just trying it because I saw joerg trying something similar too	19:06
LjL	https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker has brief-ish information on efficacy if you click on the +	19:08
LjL	Not just a large "90%" but that wouldn't even be sensible, efficacy should be qualified	19:08
LjL	yuta: what do you mean RS?	19:12
yuta	LjL:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respiratory_syncytial_virus	19:13
yuta	Maybe this is almost pandemic.	19:13
Raf[m]	what's interesting about RSV is that it seems to hit kids a lot harder than adults	19:14
yuta	Raf[m]:yesyes that is.	19:15
Arsanerit	I wonder how bad the ICU and casualty figures will become in the UK, now that they have very high infection rates but with a population where many are vaccinated, in particular in risk groups.	19:18
Arsanerit	If the ICU and casualty figures are not going to be bad despite high infection rates, does that mean we can indeed reasonably and sensibly "live with the virus"?	19:19
`St0ner	i'd say so. if no one is dying from it anymore, then it'll be endemic like common cold/flu, right?	19:20
LjL	yuta, strange, it says on wikipedia that it usually peaks in the winter	19:25
LjL	maybe lack of exposure during the winter means many people don't have immunity now?	19:26
LjL	(like with flu... the years to come may be bad)	19:26
yuta	In Tokyo , RS virus infections are incrasing,now.	19:27
yuta	https://twitter.com/MNHR_Labo/status/1413261683473088512	19:27
yuta	LjL:	19:27
yuta	LjL:maybe that thought is right.	19:27
joerg	thanks!	19:28
LjL	`St0ner, endemic doesn't mean "people aren't dying", it just means that it's not in an exponential growth phase, but it's also not going away, so it's staying around	19:29
LjL	you can have "endemic" disease with high mortality	19:30
LjL	in other words, endemic means R=1 and is staying that way	19:31
Brainstorm	New from New Scientist: Covid-19 news: England sees highest weekly infections in four months: The latest coronavirus news updated every day including coronavirus cases, the latest news, features and interviews from New Scientist and essential information about the covid-19 pandemic → https://is.gd/jrZPWo	19:31
`St0ner	yes, that's exactly what i meant. i am guessing covid will become endemic with low mortality (due to vaccination/boosters/hygiene/etc)	19:31
joerg	also this isn't (exactly like almost all infections) a "either die or don't-care" thing. I wouldn't want to catch that damn thing even if you could guarantee it won't kill me	19:32
`St0ner	yeah i value my sense of smell too much	19:33
`St0ner	and i play competitive sports 5 nights a week, value my lung function and athletic ability too	19:33
joerg	I value my ability to still get to 2nd floor at least, without an elevator, too much	19:33
`St0ner	so even if it doesnt kill me, i am taking all precautions to never get it	19:34
LjL	joerg, i just stumbled upon someone annoyed with the "either X or Y" mentality https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1413433874596569088 - although while i can guess what "zerocoviders" have, I have absolutely no idea what "smileys" are in terms of covid	19:38
LjL	some many camps about everything	19:38
Brainstorm	Updates for Malawi: +451 cases (now 38434), +7 deaths (now 1234) since 16 hours ago	19:40
Brainstorm	New from CIDRAP: China's CoronaVac vaccine shows good efficacy in 2 studies: Mary Van Beusekom \| News Writer \| CIDRAP News Jul 09, 2021 The vaccine had good efficacy against infection and severe disease, but lower than with mRNA vaccines. → https://is.gd/3htCUK	19:42
LjL	https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1413529504874737668 although it doesn't seem so obvious to me from the map, there are many white areas and a few with the "wrong" colors (vaccinated but still high-incidence)	19:52
LjL	i'd like to see a correlation graph	19:52
Brainstorm	New from WebMD: CDC and Pfizer at Odds Over Need for COVID-19 Booster Shots: Pfizer and its partner, BioNTech, say research is showing the need for a booster shot of its COVID-19 vaccine, but the CDC, FDA and National Institutes of Health disagree -- for now. → https://is.gd/jkKZQU	19:53
Brainstorm	Updates for Spain: +21879 cases (now 3.9 million), +6 deaths (now 81003) since 21 hours ago	20:04
Jigsy	%cases UK	21:04
Brainstorm	Jigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 5.1 million confirmed cases (7.6% of the population) and 128468 deaths (2.5% of cases) as of 3 hours ago. 222.6 million tests were performed (2.3% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data.	21:04
Brainstorm	Updates for Germany: +2111 cases (now 3.7 million) since 23 hours ago	21:07
genera	huch	21:07
Jigsy	35K cases and the Brits are talking about abolishing measures.	21:08
genera	949 cases, i see in CWA	21:09
genera	.de	21:10
genera	de-facto, is an increase 684 - 949 - 2111 cases on the last few days reasonable?	21:13
Arsanerit	how many of the new cases are getting seriously sick?	21:20
Brainstorm	New from FDA Press Releases: FDA: Joint CDC and FDA Statement on Vaccine Boosters → https://is.gd/NLMl7c	21:38
de-facto	genera, whats that sequence?	21:58
de-facto	daily increase?	21:58
de-facto	or weekly?	21:59
Brainstorm	New from FDA Press Releases: FDA: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: July 9, 2021 → https://is.gd/cKM1VQ	21:59
genera	day	22:00
de-facto	hmm that would be crazy	22:01
genera	brainstorm says 2111, CWA the other 2 numbers	22:01
de-facto	If N(t) = N(t0) R^(t/ts) it would mean R = [ N(t) / N(t0) ] ^ (ts/t) with generation serial time ts ~ 4d and t-t0 ~ 1d it would be R = (949/684)^(4/1) ~ 3.7 and R = (2111/949)^(4/1) = 24.5	22:02
de-facto	that would be astronomically high reproduction	22:02
de-facto	doubling in less than a day, i would say that is unrealistic	22:03
de-facto	also R = (2111/684)^(4/2) ~ 9.5 is unrealistic high	22:07
de-facto	either there was a huge cluster somewhere or the numbers are not correct	22:07
Brainstorm	New from WebMD: As Delta Surges, FDA Pressured to Fully Approve COVID Vaccines: Some experts believe full approval might jump-start the stalled national vaccination program and slow down the surge of the Delta variant infection. → https://is.gd/5todBF	22:10
rpifan	well i want them to approve a live virus vaccine	22:10
de-facto	which one?	22:11
de-facto	genera, R~1.25 would be realistic	22:13
de-facto	so about 5.7% increase with each additional day	22:13
* pwr22 uploaded an image: (122KiB) < https://libera.ems.host/_matrix/media/r0/download/shortestpath.dev/NpbhMlDYUWMjTRvgSlbYeYkg/image.png >		22:17
pwr22	de-facto: I think we can say there's a trend now?	22:17
pwr22	By my analysis the UK has regressed to early January in cases and early March in deaths	22:17
pwr22	And I think that dichotomy represents the effect of the vaccines	22:17
Arsanerit	are deaths increasing much in UK?	22:18
de-facto	with a lot of delay because its the younger able to fight longer for their life?	22:18
pwr22	See the graph I linked	22:18
pwr22	de-facto: I've heard it's about 50% vaccinated 50% not vaccinated who are hospitalised	22:18
pwr22	So I think the vaccine kind of gives us all more resistance	22:19
pwr22	But we are not indestructable	22:19
de-facto	fully vaccinated or one shot?	22:19
pwr22	Unsure, I think fully	22:19
pwr22	But can't remember where I read it	22:19
de-facto	of course not, as i said Delta cant be contained by vaccines alone	22:19
de-facto	its too contagious	22:19
pwr22	The other thing is that hospitalisations are also climbing slightly above the rates of cases and deaths	22:19
de-facto	.title https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/	22:20
Brainstorm	de-facto: From coronavirus.data.gov.uk: Daily summary \| Coronavirus in the UK	22:20
de-facto	although it looks like R did decrease by 0.1 or such in UK	22:21
Arsanerit	I thought that 85% vaccinated would kill off delta?	22:21
pwr22	That site smooths the graphs in such a way that the death graph literally didn't show any curve upward yesterday but does today	22:21
Arsanerit	smoothing can be switched off	22:22
pwr22	And those graphs seem to be static images so I'm not even convinced it wasn't intentionally made that way	22:22
Arsanerit	att least it looks like it's coming from offloop.net	22:22
de-facto	Arsanerit, how would that work?	22:22
pwr22	Arsanerit: not on the link from de-facto and our government	22:22
Arsanerit	increase is much clearer on a log scale	22:22
pwr22	offloop graphs are not static images	22:22
Arsanerit	de-facto: natural R=6, so if 5 in 6 fully vaccinated (83%) then natural R=1, at least that's how I understood it, but maybe I misunderstood	22:23
pwr22	Yeah it's clearly exponential at this point, about 40% growth per week uniformly across both cases and deaths now	22:23
Arsanerit	that doesn't account for vaccinated infections yet	22:23
pwr22	I'm worried for my vulnerable loved ones ☹️	22:23
pwr22	I suspect we're also going to see UEFA driven acceleration here in a few weeks	22:24
pwr22	Plus "Freedom Day" acceleration a few weeks after that	22:24
pwr22	And then the weather will begin to decline and there will be no social distancing at all (I believe we are dropping absolutely everything)	22:25
pwr22	And winter will suck	22:25
tarzan	https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-07-07..latest&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&hideControls=true&Metric=Variants&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=ITA~European+Union~DEU~ESP~AUT~BEL~DNK~FRA~HKG~IRL~IDN~MLT~NLD~NOR~POL~PRT~SGP~SVK	22:25
tarzan	~SVN~ZAF~KOR~SWE~CHE~THA~GBR~USA~MEX	22:25
Arsanerit	tarzan: can you run that through an URL-shortener please?	22:25
tarzan	some missing dates, those that have, its june 28	22:25
tarzan	like those internet services or some bot here?	22:26
de-facto	Arsanerit, assuming R0(delta) ~ 6 and endemic 1 = R = R0*(1 - e v) we would need to vaccinate v = (R0 - R) / ( e R0 ) = (6 - 1) / ( 0.88 6) ~ 0.95 part of an unaware naive population if vaccine efficacy was e = 0.88 for transmission (but thats the BNT162b2 number for symptomatic infection)	22:26
de-facto	so with asymptomatic infection it would be even more, yet 95% already is unrealistic	22:26
Arsanerit	de-facto: ok. I'd gotten the 85% number from a virologist in th Tagesschau	22:27
de-facto	yeah then they assume either higher vaccination efficacy (unrealistic) or lower R0 for delta	22:27
Arsanerit	But what if with some "lockdown light" it's R ~ 4 without vaccinations?	22:27
Arsanerit	If 80% are fully vaccinated, we can bring R below 1 without as strict measures as would otherwise be needed?	22:28
tarzan	Arsanerit like those internet services or some bot here?	22:28
de-facto	then it would be R = R0 ( 1 - v e - l) for a part l that does not participate in contacts anymore due to lockdown	22:28
Arsanerit	tarzan: the former	22:28
tarzan	i dont use them	22:29
Arsanerit	would need a smart bot if it was here considering your URL spanned multiple logical lines	22:29
de-facto	yes Arsanerit a vaccinations together with NPIs can bring R<1	22:29
de-facto	but both are required	22:29
Arsanerit	Oktoberfest is already cancelled	22:29
Arsanerit	and I keep hearing mixed messages about children	22:29
pwr22	tarzan: well we can't click your link because it's truncated	22:29
tarzan	depends on client if it cant handle longer links. those url shorteners are risky, youd need to check where they lead to	22:30
Arsanerit	they say children don't drive the pandemic, but my colleague has had the virus twice (first time with illness, second time asymptomatic), both cases via his kids	22:30
Arsanerit	tarzan: no, it does not depend on the client, it was truncated server side	22:30
tarzan	works for me here. web client currently	22:31
tarzan	it doesnt work for anybody?	22:31
Arsanerit	that's because you sent the link so it doesn't go via the server for you	22:31
Arsanerit	well, it works, but the last 9 countries you listed will be missing	22:31
tarzan	yeah. funny i have never noticed the problem with konversation either, or cant remember anyway	22:32
pwr22	tarzan: they are no more risky to me than clicking your link 🤷‍♂️. It's not about you so much as the people you're sharing the link with as to whether you use one I guess? What you're clicking is a different matter 🤔	22:32
pwr22	You could use one of the more well known ones?	22:32
Arsanerit	preview.tinyurl.com shows the full link before clicked	22:32
pwr22	Or run your own	22:33
pwr22	Or one run by someone you trust	22:33
tarzan	i guess i need to use if really the server cuts them. what was that very short four letter shorterner again?	22:33
Brainstorm	Updates for Algeria: +831 cases (now 144483), +13 deaths (now 3811) since a day ago	22:34
Arsanerit	is.gd	22:34
Arsanerit	there used to be one that was literally a TLD, but that one was buggy and bad	22:34
tarzan	pwr22 not sure if i understood, but clicking the shortened url without checking it first, you dont know where it leads to. and then if you see the url, you often recognize it. if you dont, just dont click	22:35
tarzan	https://is.gd/lBvvOY	22:35
Arsanerit	that works	22:35
Arsanerit	hmm, offloop has no state-level data in usa any more?	22:37
tarzan	legacy=no should work	22:37
Arsanerit	it does, why?	22:39
tarzan	it uses different data set. which datasets normal and legacy use, i cant remember, and they were switched at some point	22:39
tarzan	ljl prob knows	22:40
Arsanerit	I see	22:40
Arsanerit	thanks	22:40
tarzan	too bad tinwhiskers doesnt mention the data sets there, i sometimes wonder where they come from	22:41
tarzan	johns hopkins, covidly etc, or some combinations but which use which	22:41
tarzan	and there was that one project that stopped a few months ago for some reason	22:42
nixonix	7.7.: "The virus "is gaining ground again" because of the Delta variant which is "formidable and extremely fast", and now represents "more than 40% of contaminations" in France, warned Gabriel Attal	22:45
nixonix	.title https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2021-07-05-delta-variant-now-also-dominant-in-belgium.By-AMu-b6u.html	22:46
Brainstorm	nixonix: From www.tellerreport.com: Delta variant now also dominant in Belgium - Teller Report	22:46
Arsanerit	what is the way out?	22:46
nixonix	vaccines, bars closed, events and high risk businesses, and improve tracing to get the cases down, then tracing and containing is easier	22:48
nixonix	then the part of population that wont be vaccinated... even if you wait until vaccinations are "ready", and then reopen, they will get infected fast. the later the year, the faster as there arent summer helping	22:49
nixonix	there *isnt	22:50
nixonix	.title https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/threat-assessment-emergence-and-impact-sars-cov-2-delta-variant	22:53
Brainstorm	nixonix: From www.ecdc.europa.eu: Threat Assessment Brief: Implications for the EU/EEA on the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta (B.1.617.2) variant of concern	22:53
nixonix	pfizer said israels 64% efficacy against 617.2 was due to breakthrouhgs on them vaccinated in jan-feb	23:00
nixonix	but some people think it was unreliable result because clustered outbreaks in schools etc	23:01
nixonix	i guess there have been decent number of breakthrouhgs, because pfizer said that. old people? reduced efficacy on them. medical personnel? they get higher viral doses, so its expected	23:02
nixonix	other than that, then its worrying	23:02
Brainstorm	New from CIDRAP: CDC, FDA contradict Pfizer on COVID-19 vaccine booster: Stephanie Soucheray \| News Reporter \| CIDRAP News Jul 09, 2021 "Americans who have been fully vaccinated do not need a booster shot at this time," the agencies say. → https://is.gd/QU8C3M	23:02
nixonix	they should start to push out delta optimized version of their vacc	23:02
nixonix	.title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01421-7	23:03
Brainstorm	nixonix: From www.nature.com: Has SARS-CoV-2 reached peak fitness? \| Nature Medicine	23:03
LjL	nixonix: tinwhiskers doesn't mention the datasets because he isn't entirely clear on the rules for using the data. Let's say a birdie told me that non-legacy is Covidly, and legacy is uuh actually I don't remember anymore, it's something like OWID or Worldometers or JHU with custom additions for Italy and stuff	23:07
nixonix	sweden decided the third doses will be given. norway is starting to test the third doses, ab levels and stuff. was it on 10k if i recall	23:07
LjL	Also yeah the URL was truncated on any normal client :p	23:07
nixonix	whats the max length?	23:08
nixonix	i guess i could google it myself..	23:08
LjL	nixonix: 512 is the max length of an IRC command. The max length of a message isn't fixed, because the command includes your nickname and hostname and the channel name, so those have to be subtracted	23:09
nixonix	"512 characters in length, counting all characters including the trailing CR-LF"	23:09
LjL	nixonix: it's not necessarily the same for all IRC servers, but the server mentions it in some of the stuff it sends to you upon connecting. I think 512 is common though	23:09
nixonix	k	23:09
LjL	nixonix: I think in some of my old bots I used 450 as a "reasonably safe" max length for messages	23:10
LjL	Brainstorm actually does the exact counting	23:10
LjL	I guess" I could potentially make a module to make it try detecting long URLs over multiple lines and turning them into an is.gd url	23:11
LjL	Not entirely trivial but not rocket science eithet	23:11
nixonix	you guys remember the information from china, that they used way less blood thinners there? if true, covid would be way less dangerous on east asians, because clotting is the major factor	23:13
nixonix	there are big genetic differencies on popuation, certain genes. its still not exactly known their effect, but something has already found out about them, like foxp4 having about similar effect than diabetes	23:15
nixonix	effect on things like clotting, innate immune response, lungs	23:15
nixonix	.title https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01827-w	23:16
Brainstorm	nixonix: From www.nature.com: The quest to find genes that drive severe COVID	23:16
nixonix	now i think theres difference on getting the infection too, not just symptoms	23:16
nixonix	so its not just how effective they are with their restrictions, because if you compare influenza this season, you can see that europe and latin america have been very effective preventing flu	23:17
nixonix	but africa and east asia have not, nearly as effective	23:17
nixonix	yet we in europe and latin america have had high prevalence of sars2. east asia and africa havent	23:18
nixonix	so its prob due to differencies on genetic susceptibility for sars2 infection	23:19
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Malta will be the first European country to close its borders to anyone who has not been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 → https://is.gd/EqyoxH	23:23
nixonix	"Critically however, ethnicity has major effects on thrombotic risk, with a 3–4-fold lower risk in Chinese compared to Caucasians and a significantly higher risk in African-Americans	23:24
nixonix	.title https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/bjh.16749	23:25
Brainstorm	nixonix: From onlinelibrary.wiley.com: COVID19 coagulopathy in Caucasian patients - Fogarty - 2020 - British Journal of Haematology - Wiley Online Library	23:25
nixonix	This effect has been consistently observed, even in individuals of different ethnicities living within the same geographical location.13 Importantly, reduced VTE prevalence also contributes to the fact that thromboprophylaxis is utilised less frequently in Chinese hospitals	23:27
nixonix	has anyone followed the success of things like this?	23:31
nixonix	.title https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-07/rpi-ics072420.php	23:31
Brainstorm	nixonix: From www.eurekalert.org: In cell studies, seaweed extract outperforms remdesivir in blocking COVID-19 virus \| EurekAlert! Science News	23:31
nixonix	(heparin isnt just blood thinner, it seems to have some antiviral properties, and other effects too)	23:32
nixonix	but those in seaweed were fucoidans, molecules close to heparin	23:33
Brainstorm	New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid-19: French scientists warn 95 percent may need to be vaccinated to stop Delta variant → https://is.gd/cfWy7f	23:44
nixonix	U.S. paused the distribution of Eli Lilly’s combo of bamlanivimab and etesevimab until further notice, citing the ascent of the gamma and beta variants stateside. With Lilly’s drug struggling to keep pace with mutations	23:50
nixonix	the problem is, those rbd mutations make monoclonal antibodies not working efficiently anymore, if they target rbd	23:51
nixonix	Sotrovimab “appears to retain activity against variants of concern” like alpha, beta, gamma, epsilon and iota, the National Institutes of Health noted in recently updated COVID-19 treatment guidelines. Last week, GSK and Vir provided data suggesting that delta also belongs to that list. Updated lab experiment data posted on the preprint	23:52
nixonix	repository bioRxiv showed sotrovimab’s activity against 14 variants including the troubling delta	23:52
nixonix	The site the partners’ antibody binds to isn’t just conserved from SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 but also across “many sarbecoviruses”—the viral grouping to which both coronaviruses belong	23:53
nixonix	The partners are also working on a formulation that can be delivered as an intramuscular injection, which many patients and healthcare providers prefer over infusions, Williams noted.	23:54
nixonix	"Vaccinal" antibody allure	23:54
nixonix	so conserved sites might work. well enough - remains to be seen	23:55
Brainstorm	New from Derek Lowe: @Dereklowe: I really think this was a misstep by Pfizer: what did they think would happen? How did they think it would look? → https://is.gd/IGHvjC	23:55
nixonix	another one, not commercialized i think (yet):	23:57
nixonix	One of these mAbs, S2P6, cross-reacts with more than twenty human and animal β-coronavirus S glycoproteins and broadly neutralizes SARS-CoV-2 and pseudotyped viruses from the sarbecovirus, merbecovirus and embecovirus subgenera. Structural and functional studies delineate the molecular basis of S2P6 cross-reactivity and broad neutralization and	23:57
nixonix	indicate that this mAb blocks viral entry by inhibiting membrane fusion	23:57

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