| longstoryshort | ljl is celebrating, i suppose. running around on streets without shirt and yelling | 00:04 |
|---|---|---|
| LjL | longstoryshort: actually I'm looking at webcams to try to gauge how crowded the main Milan squares are right now | 00:07 |
| longstoryshort | will be soon | 00:08 |
| LjL | this is live https://www.skylinewebcams.com/it/webcam/italia/lombardia/milano/duomo-milano.html | 00:10 |
| LjL | https://www.milanocam.it/BuenosAires_1/ is one i already knew, not live but updated on the minute, it's not a square but it's starting to have people trying to kill themselves under cars | 00:12 |
| nixonix | good thing you have very low number of infections currently | 00:14 |
| LjL | they're rising already | 00:15 |
| LjL | there are webcams to other milan squares linked at the bottom of that page | 00:15 |
| nixonix | this variant seems to spread among 15-19 yo more than previous ones. here, israel, and was it in holland too | 00:15 |
| nixonix | maybe its just summer habits, not the extreme viral load in upper respiratory | 00:16 |
| nixonix | or maybe it really gives sniffles more often, and teenagers think its a common cold | 00:17 |
| nixonix | israel: Recent figures have shown that a significant proportion of vaccinated parents are being infected at home by their virus-carrying children | 00:18 |
| nixonix | .title https://news.yahoo.com/800-people-claimed-were-covid-133408176.html | 00:20 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From news.yahoo.com: 800 people claimed they were 'COVID-free' or vaccinated for a dance party in the Netherlands. Now 180 people have tested positive. | 00:20 |
| nixonix | they still have those negative test required there. not here... | 00:21 |
| de-facto | people cant be trusted, such scenarios just can not take place anymore | 00:21 |
| nixonix | it seems uk media hasnt paid any attention to dutch experiences. have your media followed whats happening there? | 00:22 |
| nixonix | they removed most restrictions, but apparently not those rapid test requirements. cases rocketed in 10 days or so | 00:23 |
| nixonix | now some measures are coming back | 00:23 |
| de-facto | if increase by 12-fold can be described as rocketing yeah | 00:23 |
| nixonix | here some health officials have started to talk, that its time to let it go now | 00:23 |
| de-facto | 12-fold in 10 days | 00:23 |
| LjL | https://www.skylinewebcams.com/it/webcam/italia/lombardia/milano/piazza-san-babila.html pretty noisy now | 00:23 |
| de-facto | LjL, beautiful place, just too many people... | 00:24 |
| de-facto | they are even honking here too | 00:24 |
| nixonix | and that the current restrictions we still have, which are some border things and only metro area bars closing 1 pm (among some inside gatherings), dont mean shit, said the health security chief or our national health institute | 00:24 |
| nixonix | *of our | 00:25 |
| nixonix | 1 *am | 00:25 |
| de-facto | im sorry to say, but we need much more restrictions in EU immediately, people act stupidly | 00:26 |
| de-facto | many countries having R~2 or even worse, thats not acceptable | 00:26 |
| nixonix | ppl here say, look at hospitals, admissions havent increased much | 00:27 |
| nixonix | they dont understand theres a delay, which was here around 29 days after some previous peak, when the young ppl infect older, who then infect their parents (most of them double vaccinated now, though) | 00:28 |
| de-facto | the only thing to control this is incidence and reproduction | 00:29 |
| nixonix | we will see some 40-70 yo in hospitals in late july. but if they let it go now, its too late to stop. then those brain and telomere things, that nobody knows about | 00:29 |
| de-facto | hospitalizations is after the fact, the cause has happened long time ago, hence it will take even longer to regain control when only depending on that metric | 00:29 |
| nixonix | funny experts dont discuss about them either. still preprints, werent they? not existing before published in journals... | 00:30 |
| nixonix | it started now in the press, some health officials and doctors pushing to just let it go. quoting "many doctors here think the same" | 00:31 |
| nixonix | with 24% double vaccinated | 00:31 |
| nixonix | 62% single dose | 00:32 |
| nixonix | https://mobile.twitter.com/YorickB/status/1413500522183729152 | 00:33 |
| de-facto | let it burn through is a big mistake. | 00:33 |
| de-facto | so its mainly in the young then | 00:35 |
| de-facto | https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E53EIAbVgAge3vX?format=jpg | 00:35 |
| nixonix | heres evidence of the herd immunity plan, spring 2020, when tegnell, patrick vallance, finnish health institute chiefs (salminen i suppose, but prob other ppl too), and dutch collaborated | 00:37 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.government.nl/documents/speeches/2020/03/16/television-address-by-prime-minister-mark-rutte-of-the-netherlands | 00:37 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.government.nl: Television address by Prime Minister Mark Rutte of the Netherlands | Speech | Government.nl | 00:37 |
| nixonix | maybe in your countries too | 00:38 |
| LjL | https://i.imgur.com/HicKFPC.png | 00:41 |
| LjL | how many people do you count in the semitruck in this pic? | 00:41 |
| nixonix | i have seen pictures of pickups (toyota landcruisers prob) with way more | 00:42 |
| nixonix | not from europe, tho | 00:42 |
| nixonix | its just a sports game. watch it if you like it, but why all this craziness | 00:44 |
| LjL | i don't understand, TV is showing that Piazza del Popolo in Rome where they had a big screen is now being evacuated as planned... sure, people are going to the nearby streets and those are still crowded, but at least it's several streets. meanwhile Piazza del Duomo in Milan is increasingly crammed with people, with random flag burnings every once in a while. why is that being allowed? | 00:47 |
| LjL | seriously, look again https://www.skylinewebcams.com/it/webcam/italia/lombardia/milano/duomo-milano.html compare if you looked earlier | 00:47 |
| de-facto | δ-party | 00:47 |
| de-facto | btw with those curves, it may be the young ignoring distancing, so it spreads in the young, but there also are diffusion effects, it going through households and reaching older age groups too | 00:48 |
| de-facto | ofc those may have higher vaccination prevalence, yet there will be breakthrough cases, this is where bruteforcing the immunity will happen | 00:49 |
| nixonix | im mostly worried about those brain and chromosome damages, who knows whats the truth on them | 00:50 |
| himesama | if you get a J&J vaccination, are you relatively safe from transmitting to others after 2 weeks? i was told this. (the question refers to transmitting from an hvac worker to an immunocompromised not-yet-vaccinated person.) | 00:50 |
| nixonix | but breakthrouhgs prob arent mostly that bad, as they are milder cases | 00:50 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Gi Azzurri a Palazzo Chigi ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/gi-azzurri-palazzo-chigi/17429 ) | 00:50 | |
| LjL | himesama, doubt it, you're not even very safe from symptomatic infection | 00:51 |
| nixonix | like what ive quoted here about finnish hospital personnel breakthroughs, yeah the percentage was huge, but many or most had really high cycles in pcr. maybe fragments, or then very low number of infected cells | 00:51 |
| de-facto | himesama, nope there is no safety for transmission, more decreasing the portion of severe infections and IFR | 00:51 |
| LjL | two weeks in on the short side of immunity building, 21 days was used as a stronger reference point of "divergence" in other vaccine studies | 00:51 |
| nixonix | anecdotal information, though. havent seen that published | 00:52 |
| LjL | but even if immunity had been fully built, with a vaccine that has 65% or so efficacy *against symptoms*, what can we say about efficacy against transmission? it might be higher than 65% but that seems very unlikely, so in a very hopeful hypothesis where 65% is also the efficacy against transmission, that's still just slightly more than halving the chances | 00:52 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.01.450707v1 | 00:53 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.biorxiv.org: Ad26.COV2.S elicited neutralizing activity against Delta and other SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern | bioRxiv | 00:53 |
| LjL | especially with delta, seeing what's happening in places like the NL or Greece, i think unfortunately we cannot count on any vaccine really building much efficacy against *transmission*. it's not impossible, either, but it seems unlikely and it's certainly not been established | 00:53 |
| nixonix | but for old with weaker immune response, and some risk groups too, hospitalizing breakthroughs were around 10% ballpark or so | 00:54 |
| himesama | what about usa | 00:54 |
| LjL | i personally think with earlier variants (the UK variant or what we had previously), the vaccines had a reasonable chance of stopping transmission in many cases. but i still would not have been confident to say "after X you are unlikely to infect others" | 00:54 |
| LjL | but with Delta i'm not confident saying much of anything | 00:54 |
| nixonix | if its 79-88% for pcr positive (mrna against delta), then its pretty efficient in reducing the transmissions too | 00:55 |
| nixonix | but not perfect | 00:56 |
| LjL | himesama, i don't know, in Europe cases are starting to rise (okay, in the UK they have already started long ago), i can't say that in the US it's simply not started yet but will | 00:56 |
| LjL | nixonix, which vaccine has those numbers? afaik all of the original vaccine trials only looked at symptomatic infections (confirmed by PCR, but still, you had to raise your hand and say "hey i got symptoms!"), except for AZ, which also looked at weekly PCR but the percentages were very low. then some stuff in Israel looked at PCR but it warned the sample may be biased iirc | 00:57 |
| nixonix | ah yeah, it was symptomatic | 00:57 |
| nixonix | they should have done random pcrs too | 00:57 |
| LjL | they really should've | 00:58 |
| LjL | i think, de-facto can confirm probably, that Pfizer had "promised" they'd do N-protein antibody assays later to find out asymptomatic prevalence | 00:58 |
| LjL | but i don't think they ever really did it | 00:58 |
| LjL | it seemed more like an excuse to avoid doing random PCRs | 00:58 |
| de-facto | they mentioned the intend to do that yes | 00:58 |
| LjL | of course if you do do them, your percentages risk looking much worse, as AZ's did when they did those (they didn't advertise the results much... but they were *low*) | 00:59 |
| himesama | https://www.azmirror.com/2021/07/09/deadly-delta-variant-of-covid-19-is-spreading-rapidly-in-arizona/ | 00:59 |
| LjL | oh god it's arizona again? | 00:59 |
| LjL | why is it always the same places that have it worse | 00:59 |
| de-facto | people are unable to learn | 00:59 |
| LjL | "This site not available in your country" | 00:59 |
| nixonix | why arent pfizer talking anything about indian variant modified version? and moderna only about their SA and P.1 modified | 01:00 |
| LjL | this is the shortest GDPR "fuck you" message i've seen so far | 01:00 |
| nixonix | governments should force them to make the modifications asap | 01:00 |
| LjL | nixonix, because Pfizer were planning to just inject a third shot unmodified. FDA and CDC quickly said "no thanks", so maybe they'll have to change their mind | 01:00 |
| LjL | well government can't force them. they can say they won't accept an unmodified booster | 01:01 |
| de-facto | imho manufacturers should be forced to do was they are told by the agencies like (E)CDC | 01:01 |
| de-facto | they must implement a VOC signature *immediately* as soon as a mutant is classified as VOC | 01:02 |
| de-facto | they also must start with trials without any delay | 01:02 |
| nixonix | "The study reveals that two doses of Sinovac, plus a booster dose of AstraZeneca, can prevent the Delta infection better than two doses of Sinovac, but still less than two doses of AstraZeneca | 01:03 |
| LjL | lol | 01:03 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thai-study-finds-2-doses-of-sinovac-cant-beat-delta-variant-astrazeneca-can/ | 01:03 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.thaipbsworld.com: Thai study finds 2 doses of Sinovac can't beat Delta variant, AstraZeneca can | Thai PBS World : The latest Thai news in English, News Headlines, World News and News Broadcasts in both Thai and [...] | 01:03 |
| LjL | maybe try five or six doses of sinovac and you'll get close to j&j | 01:04 |
| nixonix | i wonder what they do in china, if 617.2 starts to spread there | 01:04 |
| himesama | here is another https://tucson.com/news/local/spreading-delta-variant-moving-toward-dominance-in-arizona/article_ae38647c-db6f-11eb-a726-f7aa14fbc0e8.html | 01:05 |
| nixonix | last year i thought measures in aus were too extreme, as accepting low number of cases (fatalities could be in similar numbers as in flu), would have been a lot cheaper, and the saved money could have spent in other healthcare with lot more saved ppl | 01:06 |
| nixonix | comparing to costs in uk, how much medicines for a saved year of life can cost, which was a bit over 20k pounds, and that was the maximum, not average | 01:07 |
| nixonix | but i will change my mind, if the brain damage and telomeres are really bad news and confirmed... | 01:08 |
| nixonix | we didnt know that just a few months ago, and cant be sure even now. so new information requires new action | 01:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: A 90-year-old Belgian woman who died after falling ill with Covid-19 was infected with both the Alpha and Beta variants of the coronavirus at the same time, researchers have said. Researchers warn ‘phenomenon is probably underestimated’ after the death of woman in Belgium. → https://is.gd/jaHRC9 | 01:08 |
| de-facto | sequence look for recombination | 01:09 |
| nixonix | they dont know the prevalences of indian variant with any accuracy in different us states and areas. so the effect when it becomes dominant, cant be estimated yet | 01:09 |
| nixonix | the same for most of europe | 01:10 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-9775925/Can-long-Covid-cured-monthly-dose-vaccine.html | 01:17 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.dailymail.co.uk: Can long Covid be cured by a monthly dose of the vaccine? | Daily Mail Online | 01:17 |
| nixonix | the effect lasted only for few months. didnt have the lancent link there | 01:18 |
| nixonix | -n | 01:18 |
| nixonix | *weeks | 01:18 |
| LjL | if vaccine was helpful against long COVID but only for a few months, in my simple mind that points to the virus still being replicating inside the body, and the vaccine suppressing it for a while but not extirpating it completely... | 01:19 |
| LjL | but in my simple mind also, when the daily mail asks a question the answer is "no, or we don't know, or it's not relevant2 | 01:19 |
| nixonix | https://mobile.twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1413988885592412161 | 01:20 |
| de-facto | well or vaccination temporarily "stealing" immune resources from auto-immune reactions causing long COVID? | 01:20 |
| nixonix | for a few weeks, it was (didnt see the lancet paper, tho) | 01:20 |
| de-facto | its even a diverse phenomena, i think long COVID needs better differentiation to dissect it into appropriate sub-categories | 01:21 |
| himesama | why do you suggest this? do vaccines generally get rid of virus in infected individuals? is it because the vaccine being a more recognizable target than the real thing or somehting like htat? 16:19 <LjL> if vaccine was helpful against long COVID but only for a few months, in my simple mind that points to the virus still being replicating inside the body, and the vaccine suppressing it for a while but not extirpat | 01:22 |
| himesama | ing it completely... | 01:22 |
| nixonix | they are often accused of just making up the symptoms. like one dude here, that was very visible in social media before his long covid, with his tesla painting problems | 01:23 |
| himesama | it would be interesting to run a study against immune suppressants and immunoglubulins or something like that --- 16:20 <de-facto> well or vaccination temporarily "stealing" immune resources from auto-immune reactions causing long COVID? | 01:23 |
| LjL | himesama, i don't suggest it myself, i just saw it repeatedly suggested by some of the media that the vaccine appears, empirically, to help long covid sufferers. plus, there is a study that suggests that the virus stays around in the guts. | 01:23 |
| nixonix | i think yuri mentioned, that vaccination could help with symptoms, but it depends (meaning active disease back then) | 01:23 |
| himesama | LjL: wondering about the mechanism is all | 01:23 |
| himesama | who was that? he denied the disease and then got it? 16:23 <nixonix> they are often accused of just making up the symptoms. like one dude here, that was very visible in social media before his long covid, with his tesla painting problems | 01:24 |
| LjL | himesama, it may depend on the vaccine. afaik mRNA vaccines elicit a stronger immune response than natural infection, and it's also more targeted (towards the S-protein RBD), creating more neutralizing antibodies. so it might slow down the virus more effectively than natural immune response. but it's all very speculative | 01:25 |
| nixonix | theres also a study that says many if not most that had the infection, will have reduced ace2 for a long time, which could mess up the RAAS (and if, then oxidative stress might cause the symptoms, imo) | 01:25 |
| LjL | himesama, there are other vaccines that are used on virus that are already present in the body, to "remind" the body to keep responding: the shingles vaccine acts against the varicella zoster (chickenpox) virus, so that it doesn't reactivate in older adults | 01:26 |
| LjL | it still doesn't eradicate the virus from your body, only keeps it at bay | 01:26 |
| nixonix | himesama to my knowledge that tesla dude didnt deny the disease | 01:26 |
| LjL | ryouma on freenode was always very militant about long COVID because he's militant about chronic fatigue syndrome / ME too, but last i heard is he didn't have the energy to set up a Libera account, so he may still be on freenode talking to nothing in particular ;( | 01:27 |
| himesama | oh so he was accused of making it up? (this is a questino of my understanding your sentences or not.) | 01:27 |
| LjL | himesama, like CFS/ME patients, long COVID patients are sometimes "accused" of their symptoms being psychological | 01:28 |
| LjL | (which even if they were, they're real anyway, but they probably aren't) | 01:28 |
| nixonix | just accused of making up his long covid symptoms | 01:28 |
| himesama | ok | 01:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Hundreds of Thai medical workers infected despite Sinovac Covid-19 vaccinations → https://is.gd/irjC4U | 01:28 |
| nixonix | (but also whether he even had the sars2 infection, in the first place - when they didnt find it with pcr, but it was quite late after the original symptoms they took it, spring 2020) | 01:29 |
| de-facto | .title https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/italy/ | 01:31 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From epiforecasts.io: Covid-19: National and Subnational estimates for Italy | 01:31 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Vietnam: +3208 cases (now 29816) since 22 hours ago — Bangladesh: +8249 cases (now 1.0 million), +230 deaths (now 16419) since a day ago | 01:31 |
| LjL | de-facto, uff, https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/global/ shows Italy as one of the reddest countries :( | 01:34 |
| LjL | how on earth is Spain decreasing though? | 01:35 |
| de-facto | i dont think it is | 01:38 |
| de-facto | hmm | 01:38 |
| LjL | what do you know about epiforecasts? have they produced reliable results before? | 01:38 |
| nixonix | there could be another mechanism reducing the symptoms, even when no sars2 present anywhere in the body. if sars2 induced autoantibody activity continues, it will interfere different signalling proteins, and a vaccination might somewhat normalize the situation | 01:38 |
| de-facto | LjL, i dont know that i just found them | 01:40 |
| LjL | okay | 01:41 |
| de-facto | but this is clearly not correct here https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/spain/ | 01:41 |
| nixonix | it shows aus decreasing. its likely not | 01:41 |
| LjL | hmm | 01:41 |
| LjL | they estimate rising cases, but decreasing r | 01:41 |
| LjL | maybe Spain's data just suck too much :P which they kinda do | 01:41 |
| de-facto | .title https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/3a056fc8839d47969ef59949e9984a71 | 01:44 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From experience.arcgis.com: Experience | 01:44 |
| de-facto | "WHO European Region COVID19 Subnational Explorer" | 01:44 |
| LjL | ouch Madrid, Barcelona, and Moscow... and the UK, i can't look, it's too bright | 01:52 |
| LjL | and well, the NL, this one also shows that there is no one cluster, there's just the whole "city area" (i think there's a very big metropolitan area that runs along the sea, basically) quite red | 01:53 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Recent Commits to links:master: Add EpiForecasts model ( https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/commit/23a56ead0b42e19a49a87e8736590b389da7897c ) | 01:53 | |
| de-facto | yes the densely populated regions where people like to celebrate | 01:53 |
| LjL | although de-facto... arcgis sites are slow so i'm slowly trying to figure out what exactly this one is representing... it looks like for each subregion, they are representing *absolute* case number? | 01:56 |
| LjL | that wouldn't make much sense, of course the places with big cities will have more cases. we want the prevalence | 01:56 |
| LjL | though i'm not entirely sure... it certainly doesn't make it very clear if it's saying anything "per 100k" | 01:57 |
| LjL | oh okay, nevermind, the legend does say "7-day incidence per 100 000" so the color are that | 01:58 |
| de-facto | "The list of regions to the left can be sorted by incidence (cases per 100 000 population) over the most recent 7 days, 14 days, or the entire pandemic. The map window also conveys the most recent 7 days, 14 days, or cumulative totals, with incidence portrayed on a gradient from yellow (low) to red (high), and case counts represented as proportional blue lights." | 01:58 |
| de-facto | according to choices by those tabs at the bottom of the map | 01:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from https://covid19.specops.network : Add EpiForecasts model: Courtesy de-facto. Let's try to keep an eye on it if its forecasts actually check out → https://is.gd/hrluk9 | 01:59 |
| de-facto | quite sad that lowering restrictions immediately leads to a case explosion, i had hopes people were able to learn and act responsibly | 02:01 |
| himesama | i think we have had good solid lessons on human behavior by now | 02:01 |
| himesama | pessimistic ones | 02:01 |
| himesama | (imo only) | 02:02 |
| nixonix | have they tried those anti-aging medications with covid? or long covid even. not necessarily helping with symptoms, but might reduce the damage | 02:02 |
| himesama | like piracetam? which ones? | 02:02 |
| nixonix | all those ROS and dna methylation results would point to them | 02:02 |
| nixonix | what is the mechanism of those piracetams and like? | 02:03 |
| himesama | idk | 02:04 |
| himesama | (possibly soething something neurprotection / phospholipids / brain circulation / unknown) | 02:04 |
| himesama | it is highly likely antioxidants of many varieties have been tried anecdotally in lc | 02:05 |
| himesama | although i do not follow hte boards | 02:05 |
| nixonix | It has been found to increase oxygen consumption in the brain, apparently in connection to ATP metabolism, and increases the activity of adenylate kinase in rat brains.[28][29] Piracetam, while in the brain, appears to increase the synthesis of cytochrome b5,[30] which is a part of the electron transport mechanism in mitochondria | 02:08 |
| nixonix | which means it could have effect | 02:08 |
| himesama | interesting | 02:09 |
| himesama | hae they looked at the biochemistry surrounding atp production in lc? e.g. anaerobic vs. aerobic. | 02:11 |
| joerg | ok, so maybe it's just me and not arcgis just being "DDoSed" - doesn't load anything here except a "loading.." upper right plus a few other deco elements | 02:13 |
| nixonix | i dont know, and i have no good idea of the long covid symptoms real reasons | 02:15 |
| LjL | joerg, it's very slow and, uh, i *am* afraid you'll need javascript :D | 02:17 |
| de-facto | loads of it | 02:17 |
| LjL | joerg, about the green pass for events and things, by the way... i'm afraid it's not just Germany, most of the EU is going ahead with that concept, although here we're only allowing dancing outdoors, no indoor clubs | 02:18 |
| de-facto | at first page load there will be a disclaimer to be accepted, then it loads its heavy app, works in both chrome and firefox for me | 02:18 |
| LjL | but like, cinema, weddings, other things, you enter with a green pass | 02:18 |
| de-facto | delta will love it | 02:18 |
| nixonix | my ublock origin only shows 2 scrpits on that arcgis sites. both allowed, doesnt work (those usually dont work in my firefox) | 02:20 |
| nixonix | i mean noscript | 02:20 |
| LjL | de-facto, but, seriously, if the virus is here to stay, and vaccines will only gradually control variants and we'll have to take a new one every year or even less | 02:23 |
| LjL | how long can we expect people to observe lockdowns and not go to the cinema? | 02:23 |
| LjL | right now the answer is, i'm afraid, "not anymore" | 02:23 |
| nixonix | forget the rapid tests, just vaccine passports (which isnt likely to happen here, but anyways) | 02:23 |
| LjL | de-facto, please tell nixonix why vaccine passports are a WORSE idea than tests :P | 02:24 |
| * LjL curtsies | 02:24 | |
| nixonix | no, they are better idea | 02:24 |
| nixonix | rapid tests arent reliable | 02:24 |
| nixonix | ah you asked defacto to tell me. well im listening | 02:25 |
| de-facto | vaccine passports will get missused, any vaccination within last 6 months will be assumed to be 100% efficacious and no testing or quarantine will be required | 02:25 |
| LjL | nixonix, well i think the gist of his idea is that 1) they will specifically select for variants that evade vaccines, especially during travel, and 2) they will make people forego testing in cases where testing too place (PCR, or rapid... maybe these should be separated) | 02:26 |
| de-facto | yet we already know that depending on vaccine there are quite some breakthrough infections, even when lowering hospitalizations significantly, we can assume that symptomatic infections also are infectious for quite some time | 02:26 |
| LjL | (right, and quarantine, except there's barely any quarantine already= | 02:26 |
| nixonix | a person with double, mostly mrna, vaccine is less likely to spread and especially catch the virus, than a person who has negative rapid test result | 02:27 |
| nixonix | if it even is a real test, that the person has taken himself... | 02:27 |
| de-facto | hence imho its a big problem if they lower distancing restrictions, testing requirements and all that just to motivate people to get their vaccines | 02:27 |
| LjL | nixonix, well, vaccine passports are already being "not real", in that people use someone else's passport... that won't work if they actually get checked against ID documents, but that will often not happen at places that care more to get people in than to respect these procedures | 02:28 |
| nixonix | then if it really starts to wane after several months, its time for 3rd dose. and mostly it will happen first among old, who are less likely to go to club or events | 02:28 |
| nixonix | also access for vaccinated only would be a great incentive especially for younger folks, to get a shot | 02:29 |
| nixonix | well, fake test results are usually easier to get than fake or somebody elses vaccine passports | 02:30 |
| de-facto | vaccines never were designed to prevent spread, they were designed to prevent severe infections and hospitalizations with their IM injections and IgG productions | 02:30 |
| nixonix | which btw in russia, are in sale now. used to be €350 or so, now its like 17-35 according to some article | 02:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: U.K.'s $1.3 Trillion Covid Wealth Gain Went Mostly to the Rich → https://is.gd/JuQmKf | 02:31 |
| de-facto | there was some hope they would lower spread by 1) lowering infection risk 2) lowering viral shedding load 3) shortening duration of viral shedding, but lowering is not the same as preventing | 02:31 |
| de-facto | and quarantine is quite strict containment, if controlled properly can prevent infections and imports | 02:32 |
| de-facto | tests, well they always represent viral load at a moment in time, but for sure can be very helpful | 02:32 |
| de-facto | yet treating vaccinated as if they never ever could get infected or transmit is just plain stupid | 02:32 |
| nixonix | when even pcr tests, done at borders, catch estimated 60-70% infections, and rapid tests much less than that, those with negative test result have just somewhat reduced chance to have the infection | 02:33 |
| de-facto | and that is exactly what politicians are trying to do, hence the whole concept of those vaccination green passes only allow them to act stupid, hence should not be implemented at all | 02:33 |
| LjL | quarantine has never been "controlled properly" even in the harshest periods of italy's lockdown, so realistically, do you expect europe to magically start taking quarantine seriously, when instead they're relaxing measures? i think we should sometimes try to focus on things that we could actually convince people to do in reality (although we can't probably do anything ourselves, but even as a mental exercise...) | 02:33 |
| LjL | de-facto, i think it wasn't just "some hope", it was a real effect. just, not on delta. | 02:34 |
| nixonix | lets say bar access is only for those vaccinated. now if only less than half of 18-30 yo would get the shot, if its mandatory for access to bars, they even need to try to get a fake one, or just take the damn jab | 02:34 |
| nixonix | only the most motivated will go through the motions with fake or borrowed ones | 02:35 |
| nixonix | bars etc where those with fake or borrowed vaccine certificates are found, could be ordered to shut down for a few weeks | 02:36 |
| de-facto | no i would say if we tolerate something like bars to be open they need to have extremely sensitive tests ensuring everyone allowed to enter does not have high viral load. it has to be controlled by someone external, because neither people themselves nor those opening a bar can be trusted | 02:36 |
| de-facto | vaccinations should not play a role in entry status | 02:37 |
| LjL | de-facto, so every bar would have a checkpoint outside where a third party would run actual PCR on the spot? | 02:37 |
| LjL | how is that possible? | 02:37 |
| de-facto | idk but it would ensure there are no outbreaks | 02:37 |
| nixonix | they will remove the restrictions anyway, when the vaccination numbers arent increasing much anymore - or even faster. so its better to mitigate the damage with almost required vaccinations | 02:37 |
| de-facto | vaccinations wont ensure that | 02:37 |
| LjL | but it's impossible | 02:37 |
| nixonix | they dont need to ensure, just make it way less likely | 02:38 |
| LjL | just say "bars should stay closed" | 02:38 |
| himesama | free drinks to the nurse doing the test | 02:38 |
| de-facto | thats what i think yes | 02:38 |
| LjL | you might as well say, "if bars are to be opened, they should be opened on the moon where there's no atmosphere so you cannot breathe covid" | 02:38 |
| nixonix | bars will open everywhere this fall. not sure if in aus and nz and part of asia perhaps... | 02:38 |
| de-facto | i mean we see what happens when restrictions are taken back for clubs and bars | 02:38 |
| nixonix | and they are in fact open here, with just a bit reduced opening hours in metro area | 02:38 |
| de-facto | it lead ot increase in cases in Japan, Netherlands, and many other places | 02:39 |
| himesama | wasn't there some retrospective study that said what types of events and restrcitions worked and did not? | 02:39 |
| de-facto | people just cant be trusted to act responsibly anymore, they have to be enforced to do so | 02:39 |
| LjL | himesama, the only one i remember was quite weak | 02:39 |
| himesama | agree with that, unfortunately. idk which cultures have self-restraint if any. | 02:40 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Ghana: +455 cases (now 97585), +2 deaths (now 801) since a day ago — Netherlands: +7240 cases (now 1.7 million) since 22 hours ago — Canada: +190 cases (now 1.4 million), +9 deaths (now 26436) since 22 hours ago — France: +6 deaths (now 111425) since 22 hours ago | 02:40 |
| de-facto | its a question of how contagious a variant is (hence how many people can get infected in a potential super spread event) and how high current incidence is (hence how likely such an event can occur) | 02:40 |
| nixonix | so it wont be like choise between keeping the bars closed - that isnt happening. there used to be that kind of choise that was suggested by business lobbyists here last fall, like mandatory use of (bad) masks so the bars etc can keep open | 02:40 |
| de-facto | depending on that bars should stay closed | 02:40 |
| nixonix | but they wont | 02:40 |
| de-facto | hence we will have outbreaks | 02:41 |
| de-facto | and they will spread because we allow traveling | 02:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Tokyo bans alcohol sales as Japan enters COVID-19 state of emergency. Japan is under a state of emergency as COVID-19 cases continue to rise ahead of the Tokyo Olympic Games. → https://is.gd/oGvWNc | 02:41 |
| nixonix | they will just open them when the vaccine coverage is high enough (here it seems pretty low is plenty for them), and then follow the hospitalization numbers - which will have a long delay, though | 02:41 |
| nixonix | now they are opening the borders too, because they fucked up when they should have slowed down the spread of the indian variant | 02:42 |
| nixonix | and now its too late, so they will remove border restrictions | 02:42 |
| de-facto | i think allowing high incidence is a mistake, it means tolerating it to go far out of control without even the option to quickly contain it in case a new mutant occurs and is selected in the vaccinated for breaking through the protection | 02:43 |
| de-facto | why should that not happen? | 02:43 |
| nixonix | i dont know about that vaccine breakthrough variants becoming common. theres no evidence of that yet, like from uk. it doesnt necessarily happen | 02:44 |
| de-facto | we will hope we had contained this earlier, mark my words. | 02:44 |
| nixonix | sure, ive always supported tight border controls, then remove most of restrictions inside countries (after the cases have gone low) | 02:45 |
| nixonix | but almost no country in europe did that. exp iceland | 02:45 |
| nixonix | norway and denmark perhaps have tried it for awhile | 02:45 |
| nixonix | finland did that last summer and fall | 02:46 |
| nixonix | then they allowed free import of uk variant from estonia in dec-jan or so | 02:46 |
| nixonix | with tight borders we would have just partied here non-stop for the last 12 months | 02:47 |
| de-facto | imho traveling should stop, completely or with strictly controlled quarantine. then establishing green zero-covid zones with strict border control can be expanded to cover more and more of the parent management districts (such as regions, federal states, nations, etc). | 02:47 |
| de-facto | we had like several tens of regions in Germany without any cases in 14 days, incidence was zero | 02:48 |
| de-facto | those should isolate and expand | 02:48 |
| nixonix | if i understood, germany had important workes from chezia, and they didnt close the border to there, but tried to control it | 02:49 |
| nixonix | the same prob with many other countries, but the situation in cz used to be bad, and still lots of traffic over the border | 02:49 |
| de-facto | but instead we will tolerate that people want to get entertained, go for traveling and party, import mutants and party again, super spreading them and making the success of half a year efforts to bring down incidence go away in a few weeks | 02:50 |
| nixonix | we had similar stuff with estonia, lots of construction workers. but then in january or so, they made the traffic from there pretty tight | 02:50 |
| himesama | could hte virus hage beeen eradicated? after wuhan exploded? | 02:50 |
| himesama | or after the first thai case? | 02:50 |
| de-facto | the very first version of it was less than half as infectious as what we have to deal with right now | 02:51 |
| nixonix | prob impossible, but slowed down for more time for vaccines | 02:51 |
| de-facto | so with same measures of containment it would have stayed with R<1, and when numbers still were low enough it would have become extinct by its own | 02:52 |
| de-facto | but people dont act pro-actively, they react weeks and months after something happened | 02:52 |
| de-facto | so as long as we keep reacting to the virus, it will dominate our lifes | 02:53 |
| nixonix | there would always be some clusters, and people taking it from those clusters to areas and countries where containing is practically impossible | 02:53 |
| nixonix | then it would spread there, and sooner or later would leak to other countries | 02:53 |
| de-facto | we instead need to take the control over the virus back, and remove it from our everyday life | 02:53 |
| LjL | by largely removing our everyday lives, or what? | 02:54 |
| nixonix | we can get R below 1 in many countries, with enough incentives for vaccinations - like bar and event access. immunity from vaccines, whatever it is, and immunity from infections combined | 02:54 |
| de-facto | yeah of course with global traveling, partying and large gatherings, how would it go away? | 02:54 |
| nixonix | and it could get immunity for the whole contry under 1. but it would still be around, or get reimpoted | 02:55 |
| nixonix | just that those case numbers would stay low | 02:55 |
| LjL | okay, well, i don't want to remove our everyday lives for an indefinite amount of time | 02:55 |
| LjL | one year and a half has been quite enough | 02:55 |
| nixonix | and we poor countries with less than 5% prevalence likely, will have harder time to get there... | 02:55 |
| de-facto | what makes me angry and sad, we brought it down to 5/100k and now its just like "yeah lets not care anymore" like if it was too low or something | 02:57 |
| de-facto | almost at the point where spreading zones with zero new infections could have began, they take back restrictions and promote traveling | 02:58 |
| nixonix | so if 75% of population would get vaccination, and that would have perhaps 85% protection from passing it on (so that there would be a breakthrough, and then the person would infect other people with reduced transmission who he might have), would mean around 65% from vaccines, and then 10-15% more from infections | 02:58 |
| nixonix | that wouldnt take it over the immunity threshold with this variant, but close so that with some measures, it could easily be under 1 | 02:59 |
| nixonix | then enter vaccine passports for bars etc... and more vaccine coverage | 02:59 |
| nixonix | and 3rd doses to keep up the immunity | 03:00 |
| de-facto | regions already demonstrated they were able to win the fight, wrestled it down and eliminated it from their location, then again others brought it back, because they were allowed to enter the location and meet people infect them with a new variant and it all starts over again | 03:00 |
| nixonix | if not, then many of those not vaccinated, like smaller kids perhaps, and those refusing or who cant get the jab, will have infection and will get the immunity. problem solved, but worse solution imo | 03:01 |
| de-facto | i wish it would work like that, but i fear we will have to deal with the evolution of breakthrough infections in such a scenario, the hope would be that they are just not fit enough to cause larger outbreaks anymore because they would not be fit enough but there is no guarantee for that | 03:03 |
| nixonix | im just hoping 2 doses will prevent brain and chromosome damages... and sad for kids, when it looks like they will let it spread before they get their doses | 03:04 |
| nixonix | too bad uk shows them way now, when they have much better vaccine coverage and immunity from infections | 03:05 |
| nixonix | almost like "look at israel, 60% coverage is enough" | 03:06 |
| de-facto | afaik immunologists expect that breakthrough infections will not only be much less severe but also not cause so many spreads to exotic locations in the body and maybe also not cause long covid anymore? | 03:06 |
| de-facto | but with the delta wave raging, we will know that soon i assume | 03:06 |
| nixonix | when they didnt have indian variant then, they still had restrictions, especially at borders, and adult coverage was more like 85% or so | 03:06 |
| nixonix | we wont know much about brain damage, especially those that havent died. and not even that much about those who died, because the risk of getting infection or something has limited autopsies, according to - was it mentioned in that brain image paper? not sure | 03:08 |
| de-facto | in our city here there was a big party location where people would meet indoors, they understood directly at the begin of the pandemic and closed permanently, sold their stuff and vanished | 03:09 |
| de-facto | probably made the best deal out of it they could | 03:10 |
| de-facto | the location now is used for some manufacturing afaik | 03:10 |
| nixonix | lets see if australia will have similar rise now than the last summer | 03:11 |
| nixonix | containgin this variant will be much harder | 03:11 |
| nixonix | their winter | 03:11 |
| nixonix | tunisia has been rocketing too | 03:12 |
| LjL | fewer people now but fireworks O.o https://www.skylinewebcams.com/it/webcam/italia/lombardia/milano/duomo-milano.html | 03:12 |
| LjL | they look pretty fireworky... but i don't hear them | 03:12 |
| LjL | ok they're done | 03:12 |
| LjL | looked pretty dangerous | 03:12 |
| de-facto | that looks much better now, before it was crowded like hell | 03:13 |
| nixonix | btw, tunisias death curve, compared to cases curve, looks pretty honest | 03:13 |
| LjL | i see a few blue lights now, before i was wondering where police even was | 03:13 |
| LjL | lol people right in the middle of the street https://www.milanocam.it/BuenosAires_1/ | 03:13 |
| nixonix | some people say, they again refuse testing symptomatic kids in sweden | 03:14 |
| LjL | when we won the world cup, some buses/trams were taken over -.- | 03:14 |
| de-facto | that amount of people may be ok for that place, if they spread more evenly, but before it was like an order of magnitude more of them or such | 03:14 |
| LjL | well the other ones are probably sleeping now, eh | 03:15 |
| de-facto | tbh it looked scary densely populated for some time | 03:16 |
| LjL | yeah | 03:17 |
| de-facto | hopefully incidence is still low enough that it did not reach a critical aerosol density and super spreaded | 03:17 |
| nixonix | it could be jsut a few months more containing and restraining border traffic. but many doctors and heath officials seem to think now, that let it just spread when old ppl have mostly got 2 doses | 03:17 |
| nixonix | maybe they are those that think that kids shouldnt get vaccinated. but instead get sars2 infection... | 03:17 |
| nixonix | sick world | 03:17 |
| nixonix | maybe its their revenge, those that wanted the herd immunity plan in the spring 2020 | 03:18 |
| himesama | it was known that post viral diseases existed and that sars1 had something like 30pc incidence | 03:19 |
| himesama | herd immunity plan probably didn't think about that | 03:19 |
| himesama | or want to | 03:20 |
| nixonix | what kind of post viral diseases it had | 03:20 |
| de-facto | do we have any hint that herd immunity even works with this virus? | 03:20 |
| LjL | de-facto, we have hints that people can even be infected with two variants at the same time | 03:21 |
| LjL | to *me* those things are hints that it might not work | 03:21 |
| nixonix | anyways, if those finnish hc officials are thinking about letting it go now, you can be pretty sure its not something they invented by themself. i think theyve discussed with other european health institute ppl, and theyve told similar thought them first | 03:22 |
| de-facto | well i mean with pre-existing immunity either by vaccinations or recovery, will that lower reproduction below a level that we would not need *any* restrictions even with the newest and most aggressive mutants constantly imported and being allowed to freely circulate in the population? | 03:23 |
| nixonix | so which countries will decide to abandon containment policy during the couple weeks, saying we have enough vaccine coverage, look at uk where hospitalizations havent increased a lot | 03:23 |
| de-facto | yeah maybe next year we will have more luck | 03:25 |
| de-facto | it seems this year we already screwed it up massively in EU | 03:26 |
| de-facto | and in many other places too | 03:26 |
| nixonix | or maybe its just because those hc officials have got both doses themself, or are getting the 2nd soon, so they will be protected | 03:26 |
| nixonix | cases are low in eastern europe. is it honest or already spreading a lot among 15-30 yo, or is it because not much indian variant there yet, or they really have a huge immunity among young | 03:27 |
| de-facto | no thats the wrong attitude, i take that back, we still have lown incidence and can contain it in those places where the outbreaks happen right now, they just have to be isolated from the rest | 03:28 |
| de-facto | its just their isolation and localized containment has to be properly enforced as soon as possible | 03:29 |
| nixonix | germany has kept the tightest measures in europe. maybe we other countries let it loose, but you dont. just lock us out | 03:29 |
| de-facto | yeah instead they took back restrictions | 03:29 |
| nixonix | then we can compare the results afterwards. yeah, it makes no sense that everybody do the same | 03:30 |
| de-facto | allowing traveling to high incidence mutant areas without quarantine | 03:30 |
| de-facto | i wish they would close borders around every contiguous area and allow them to implement their own containment without directly nullifying their success with instantly allowing imports as soon as they reached success | 03:31 |
| nixonix | ok next time. but their plans look real bad now | 03:32 |
| joerg | another guy just said >>the managers and politicians want to make money again, and you can make more money with sick people than with dead or even with healthy people<< | 03:32 |
| de-facto | such areas should be defined by their ability to enforce a consistent containment strategy | 03:33 |
| de-facto | heterogeneous zones cant have a stringent coherent containment implemented, hence homogeneous zones should separate, isolate and implement their concepts, the best will achieve it most efficiently | 03:34 |
| de-facto | but yeah i know all that wont happen | 03:36 |
| de-facto | it would be a good ability though, to learn how to get rid of a bio-thread and eradicate it, instead we give up before even trying | 03:39 |
| de-facto | almost like a self-full filling prophecy | 03:39 |
| LjL | <Brainstorm> New from Brexit @ The Guardian: Irish people in Britain to get green light to visit friends and family: Europe’s strictest border controls to be relaxed as Ireland prepares to allow visits for essential reasons → https://is.gd/6cMi2j | 03:53 |
| LjL | "Travel from Ireland to the rest of the EU is being opened on 19 July in line with bloc policy. The transport minister, Eamon Ryan, has indicated this will also include travel from Great Britain." | 03:54 |
| LjL | "He also said those who have been double-vaccinated arriving from Great Britain will no longer have to quarantine, though this has yet to be confirmed as government policy." | 03:55 |
| LjL | i hadn't even really heard that Ireland wasn't allowing *Irish* citizens to return. a big deal was made of that about... was it Australia or New Zealand? at some point | 03:56 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Taiwan's Foxconn, TSMC confirm $350 mln COVID-19 vaccine deal → https://is.gd/FMADJl | 04:14 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Barbados: +40 cases (now 4176) since a day ago | 04:38 |
| whytek | Ljl afai was aware anyone in ireland could return, you just had to spend 14 days in a hotel at your own expense. | 05:24 |
| LjL | ah, the New Zealand setup | 05:24 |
| whytek | some people escaped and the sent the guards after them. | 05:25 |
| whytek | the most ridiculous thing i heard was a family that live in a house on it's own land, in sligo i think it was - and they made their plan to travel based on the idea that when they got backk they could self isolate at home. but then the rules changed and they made them suffer two weeks in the hotel. | 05:26 |
| whytek | the fallacy of rules. | 05:26 |
| whytek | everyone would obviously have been better off if they had just let those people go home. | 05:26 |
| LjL | in italy we "solve" that by treating rules rather flexibly | 05:31 |
| FSRgoesbrr[m] | greece too | 05:32 |
| FSRgoesbrr[m] | brothers | 05:32 |
| FSRgoesbrr[m] | nations | 05:32 |
| whytek | PIIGS foerver! | 05:33 |
| whytek | Although recently I think Ireland should voluntarily renounce PIIG status. | 05:35 |
| whytek | Then we can have just PIGS again. | 05:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Pandemic not over, PM Boris Johnson warns as England set for rule easing → https://is.gd/p4THbN | 05:38 |
| LjL | thanks for the reminder Boris | 05:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from Francois Balloux: @BallouxFrancois: R to @BallouxFrancois: The bad news is that we won't get rid of SARSCoV2 anytime soon. The good news is that once it has become endemic, morbidity and mortality is expected to be dramatically lower, roughly in line with the other endemic seasonal respiratory viruses infecting us on a regular basis.12/ → https://is.gd/Co2KXe | 05:58 |
| LjL | "The primary reason why the other ~200 respiratory viruses in circulation don't currently cause morbidity/mortality comparable to SARSCoV2 is that most people have been infected by them, generally early in life, and in the case of flu, vaccines also help." | 06:00 |
| LjL | that's the thing that gives me the creeps | 06:00 |
| LjL | he says future variants are probably going to evade immunity rather than be more transmissible | 06:01 |
| LjL | so are we all going to get it anyway eventually, and only for people born after 2020 will it be something comparable to a cold? | 06:01 |
| LjL | "An ever better piece of news, primarily for people in rich countries, is that we have built up superb surveillance capacity to monitor viral evolution and have highly effective vaccines that can be updated to keep up with the evolution of the virus when it will be required." | 06:02 |
| LjL | okay, but for those of us born after 2020, that still means we'll never really be safe from high morbidity/mortality of this virus, we'll just have to keep hoping we get the new jab before we get the new virus | 06:02 |
| LjL | what life is that | 06:02 |
| himesama | idgi. the reason most respiratory viruses do not cause comparable m/m is that most people have been infected by them? try substituting any transmissible pathogen in that sentence. there must be missing information like early in life = low m/m. | 06:09 |
| himesama | i watched the bill gates ted talk about planning for pandemic. wow. | 06:10 |
| LjL | himesama, it does say early in life | 06:12 |
| LjL | ah | 06:12 |
| LjL | yes, early in life generally tends to mean low m/m | 06:13 |
| himesama | and htat is why i said it | 06:13 |
| LjL | the immune system is different for infants and small children, in ways that i don't really know, but i know it reacts fairly differently | 06:13 |
| LjL | we're already seeing that children have much lower m/m from COVID | 06:13 |
| LjL | (even though i don't think that means we shouldn't vaccinate them, it's just an observation) | 06:13 |
| himesama | is that true for most viruses? why woulo dtaht be true? is this because children = pre-reproductive ad in the past they all died off? | 06:14 |
| himesama | i.e. genetics | 06:14 |
| himesama | or because they have good immunes? | 06:15 |
| LjL | i don't really have the answers to those questions, and i also need to sleep. but consider how the bat immune system keeps these viruses at bay, while not *getting rid* of them: it has a different tradeoff. children may also have different tradeoff, we may have evolved so that since children are attacked by many new pathogens once they come to the world, they react in a way that allows the disease to develop but largely not fatally or too seriously. it is still | 06:16 |
| LjL | the case, as i understand it, that many severe COVID cases are made severe by the adult immune system reaction. | 06:16 |
| LjL | https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03496-7 has some tentative answers | 06:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from Francois Balloux: @BallouxFrancois: R to @BallouxFrancois: An ever better piece of news, primarily for people in rich countries, is that we have built up superb surveillance capacity to monitor viral evolution and have highly effective vaccines that can be updated to keep up with the evolution of the virus when it will be required.13/ → https://is.gd/7pSXDs | 06:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: The rationing of a last-resort Covid treatment → https://is.gd/lWEx3V | 06:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Taiwan’s Foxconn, TSMC confirm $350 mln COVID-19 vaccine deal → https://is.gd/nttCQ6 | 07:20 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Noord-Holland, Netherlands: +2502 cases (now 288753) since a day ago — Saint Petersburg, Russia: +2007 cases (now 489928), +103 deaths (now 17495) since a day ago — Groningen, Netherlands: +654 cases (now 42062) since a day ago — Voronezh, Russia: +430 cases (now 94672), +7 deaths (now 3279) since a day ago | 07:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from Francois Balloux: @BallouxFrancois: I get at least 10 replies a day accusing me of having gotten everything wrong, over and again, throughout the pandemic. Thus, I'm retweeting this short thread which I wrote a year ago. I don't feel it aged too badly. I can live with this level of wrong ... → https://is.gd/0zwFHV | 07:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: A Covid test as easy as breathing → https://is.gd/0xwncA | 08:02 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for India: +37154 cases (now 30.9 million), +741 deaths (now 408532) since 15 hours ago | 08:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from Science-Based Medicine: “Vegan cardiologist” Dr. Joel Kahn is amplifying misinformation and conspiracy theories about COVID-19 vaccines and VAERS: Dr. Joel Kahn is a "holistic cardiologist" who advocates for a vegan diet. There was a time when he seemed at least semi-reasonable, but recently he has been peddling COVID-19 conspiracy [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/ZhqtF1 | 09:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid-19: PM urges caution as 19 July unlocking set to go ahead: Boris Johnson warns that Covid cases, currently at 30,000 a day, will rise as restrictions end. → https://is.gd/8IogPs | 09:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Experts warn full Covid-19 vaccine approval is no quick fix for hesitancy: Pressure is mounting on the FDA to issue full approvals for Covid-19 vaccines. But some experts say the agency is moving at the right pace — and that full approvals… → https://is.gd/b0yuBe | 10:39 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Opinion: The decline in Covid-19 preceded vaccines. But we need jabs to finish the job: Pandemic epidemiology is rarely simple. But one trend about Covid-19 appears to be clear: As in previous pandemics, the rapid fall in new cases preceded the widespread distribution of vaccines. → https://is.gd/ZuNMzo | 10:50 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Manipur, India: +911 cases (now 77731), +14 deaths (now 1272) since a day ago | 11:03 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Gli Azzurri e Matteo Berrettini a Palazzo Chigi ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/gli-azzurri-e-matteo-berrettini-palazzo-chigi/17430 ) | 11:20 | |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Indonesia's Covid-19 cases per day rises to more than 31,000. 201 doctors have died since January. Experts warn Indonesia could be "the next India", but available doctors are less than half that of India, the fifth lowest in Asia-Pacific. → https://is.gd/ISMi52 | 11:37 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Brunei: +5 cases (now 273) since a day ago | 11:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Global coronavirus deaths hit four million as countries grapple with Delta variant → https://is.gd/AmMfSD | 11:58 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Fiji: +873 cases (now 11385), +3 deaths (now 58) since 19 hours ago — Germany: +576 cases (now 3.7 million) since 22 hours ago | 12:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from ScienceNews: One mutation may have set the coronavirus up to become a global menace: A study pinpoints a key mutation that may have put a bat coronavirus on the path to becoming a human pathogen, helping it better infect human cells. → https://is.gd/ft1fiG | 12:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Indian national jailed for breaching Covid-19 restrictions in Singapore → https://is.gd/zQV5PH | 12:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Covid2019: As long Covid affects more kids, doctors can't predict who is at risk → https://is.gd/4RbPdV | 13:12 |
| -RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Scomparsa di Filippo Cavazzuti. Dichiarazione del Presidente Draghi ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/scomparsa-di-filippo-cavazzuti-dichiarazione-del-presidente-draghi/17432 ) | 13:30 | |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Malta: +179 cases (now 31240) since a day ago | 13:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Atlantic: Paramedics Are So Much More Than Ambulance Drivers: Lindsey Kaczmarek gets called an ambulance driver more often than she gets called a paramedic. “That’s absolutely not what I do,” she told me. What she does do is show up when someone needs medical help, figure out what’s wrong with them, and do whatever she can to help [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/wVjBVR | 13:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Covid-19: Turkmenistan becomes first country to make vaccination mandatory for all adults: Turkmenistan will legally require all residents over 18 to be vaccinated against the coronavirus, the country’s health ministry said on 7 July. Only those with medical contraindications will be... → https://is.gd/t7UZLj | 13:44 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Indonesia: +40427 cases (now 2.6 million), +891 deaths (now 67355) since a day ago — Nepal: +1690 cases (now 657139), +18 deaths (now 9400) since a day ago | 14:10 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Chinese producers agree to supply more than half a billion vaccines to COVAX → https://is.gd/hxGBpb | 14:27 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +1 deaths (now 10899) since 2 days ago | 14:34 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Bangladesh: +8548 cases (now 1.0 million) since 13 hours ago | 14:59 |
| joerg | himesama: babies are supplied with a "starter set" of immune competence from their mothers. To begin with. The rest you and LjL already discussed, childhood immune system works somewhat different to mature one. Actually severe covid is from a sort of overreaction of a mature immune system to the pathogen, while children have mostly a naive immune system completely oriented towards "learning" | 15:40 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Guam: +23 cases (now 8454) since 3 days ago — Germany: +359 cases (now 3.7 million) since 22 hours ago | 16:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from Politico: Coronavirus: Dutch PM apologizes for easing coronavirus measures too soon → https://is.gd/MgSLDp | 16:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Food & Wine: Covid-19: Bitter times for Agra’s ‘petha’ industry → https://is.gd/mzVNna | 16:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from Politico: China’s vaccine makers ink deal for up to 550M doses: Both vaccines have received emergency use listing from the World Health Organization. → https://is.gd/hdaclF | 16:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from In The Pipeline: Temozolimide Is Explosive: Here’s some surprising information to learn about a drug that’s been around for decades. Temozolomide (TMZ) is a chemotherapy agent, used in several intractable conditions such as glioblastoma. It’s pretty vicious stuff – the mechanism is through alkylation of guanine residues in DNA, a [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/lBHV5O | 17:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Dutch leader says easing lockdown was “error of judgment” → https://is.gd/bObgEm | 17:38 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +887 cases (now 4.3 million), +13 deaths (now 127788) since 22 hours ago | 17:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from WebMD: Some COVID Survivors Can't Regain Weight Lost During Illness: A new study shows some people severely ill with COVID-19 may struggle to regain lost weight for months afterward, possibly due to several reasons. → https://is.gd/Lv2MtJ | 17:49 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +48929 cases (now 5.2 million) since 23 hours ago | 17:59 |
| LjL | Is that UK number Covidly and/or my bot doing silly maths or...? | 18:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from New Scientist: Covid-19 news: Blood test to detect long covid may soon be possible: The latest coronavirus news updated every day including coronavirus cases, the latest news, features and interviews from New Scientist and essential information about the covid-19 pandemic → https://is.gd/ZVJoas | 18:10 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Myanmar: +5014 cases (now 197227), +89 deaths (now 3927) since a day ago | 18:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from Francois Balloux: @BallouxFrancois: At the risk of annoying many people, I'll go out on a limb by suggesting that the relaxation of the remaining COVID19 measures on the UK on July 19th might only have a marginal effect on the dynamic of the epidemic. → https://is.gd/FdZQ7U | 19:03 |
| de-facto | .title https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ cases 34471 | 19:07 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From coronavirus.data.gov.uk: Daily summary | Coronavirus in the UK | 19:07 |
| LjL | de-facto, hm well that's still worse than yesterday but not *as* bad | 19:17 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-value-and-growth-rate <-- yes hence their R-value is between 1.2 and 1.5 | 19:21 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.gov.uk: The R value and growth rate - GOV.UK | 19:21 |
| Brainstorm | New from WebMD: What You Need to Know About the Delta Variant: Delta variant has drawn focused attention during the past month due a rapid increase in COVID-19 cases in several countries, including the U.S. → https://is.gd/HX0ALY | 19:34 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Andorra: +80 cases (now 14155) since 3 days ago | 20:04 |
| operational | hi | 20:12 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: News Scan for Jul 12, 2021: Flu vaccine and COVID-19 One-dose COVID vaccine protection in elderly → https://is.gd/5E5PB6 | 20:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Jersey: +454 cases (now 4805) since 3 days ago | 20:41 |
| Brainstorm | New from StatNews: Health: J&J’s Covid-19 vaccine may trigger neurological condition in rare cases, FDA says → https://is.gd/7ICGSl | 20:56 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +534 cases (now 3.7 million) since 23 hours ago | 21:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from WebMD: Divorced Parents Are Clashing Over COVID-19 Vaccines: Now that the COVID-19 vaccines are available for children ages 12 and older, some divorced parents are facing a challenge: What to do when one parent wants the kids to get the COVID-19 vaccine and the other parent doesn’t. → https://is.gd/w23kdr | 21:17 |
| shadowsy | hi | 21:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: Delta surges worsen, WHO challenges push for vaccine booster doses: Lisa Schnirring | News Editor | CIDRAP News Jul 12, 2021 Tedros urged Moderna and Pfizer to go all out on channeling vaccine supply to COVAX. → https://is.gd/DnVZ5u | 21:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Tokyo Olympics: ‘Japanese only’ signs spark outrage as sponsors count cost of spectator ban and Covid-19 state of emergency → https://is.gd/AWcVb5 | 22:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: France's Macron orders all health workers to get vaccinated → https://is.gd/aDQdnB | 22:30 |
| Arsanerit | I have full vaccination protection. Should I still use the exposure notifications service in the Corona-Warn-App? Should I still self-quarantine if it tells me I am a contact person? | 22:32 |
| LjL | as to the first question, why not? as to the second i really cannot answer that for other people | 22:45 |
| Arsanerit | Why not — because it reduces my battery life dramatically. | 22:46 |
| LjL | oh does it | 22:47 |
| Arsanerit | I normally barely use my phone, and without the exposure notifications, I can do ten days on battery. | 22:47 |
| LjL | i didn't really notice an effect on mine but maybe i haven't paid enough attention, my battery certainly doesn't last a whole lot | 22:47 |
| LjL | ten days! | 22:47 |
| Arsanerit | I suppose people who actively use their phone will have short battery life anyway. | 22:47 |
| Arsanerit | Yes, ten days lying around at home doing nothing. | 22:48 |
| LjL | the best phone i've had (Galaxy S3 with improved battery) did 5-6 days on standby without the Google services | 22:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from Ars Technica: Science: Pfizer pushes for boosters as health experts say they’re unneeded, unethical → https://is.gd/N5I06t | 22:50 |
| t3nj1n | You can still contract COVID-19 with full vaccination and spread it to others IIRC. | 23:19 |
| hooligan | sweden is planning to remove most if not all the restrictions in couple days. they have had moderate to tight restrictions all this time, even during the last summer, compared to other europe, excluding the first few weeks 2020 | 23:20 |
| hooligan | we have some information on breakthroughs, but do we have anything on prevalence of double dosed breakthrough cases who have infected other people after that? | 23:22 |
| hooligan | what we have, is their viral loads are usually very low (that finnish hospital cluster) | 23:22 |
| hooligan | suddenly several articles in finnish media, that tracking down the cases would stop, and also testing everybody if there are other respiratory viruses around. then today, suddenly not the typical evening reports on situation today | 23:26 |
| hooligan | so it looks like they have planned to go through with the herd immunity plan. media, health officials, govt. and media reduced reporting before announcing it | 23:26 |
| hooligan | lets see if we get leaks | 23:27 |
| Arsanerit | Yes, one can, but it's less likely. | 23:27 |
| hooligan | around the same time than uk, sweden, who else? dutch did it a bit earlier, but they had to back off | 23:28 |
| hooligan | one media reported today something about netherlands, so its not all unison in media. some of the journalists and editors are in inner circle, some are not | 23:28 |
| LjL | hooligan, moderate to tight restrictions, that's interesting. i read some random twitter or something yesterday from someone saying Sweden and Somewhereelse were perfect example to show that if you "just let the epidemic go" and let people decide for themselves, that'll be the best compromise | 23:29 |
| hooligan | and editors dont decessariy have full control in all the papers | 23:29 |
| Arsanerit | German state of NRW made some noises about loosening, not sure if anything happened | 23:29 |
| LjL | if that's not what Sweden actually did, well, then maybe that's not true | 23:29 |
| hooligan | if you look at owid stringency index, they have had way more restrictions than eg us, all the time exp the first few weeks when they had decidet to just let it burn through | 23:30 |
| hooligan | but then backed off | 23:30 |
| hooligan | its a myth that they had light restrictions. they had only in the very beginning | 23:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR: Johnson & Johnson Vaccine Is Linked To Neurological Disorder In Extremely Rare Cases: Of the 12.8 million people who received the J&J vaccine, around 100 developed Guillain-Barré syndrome, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. → https://is.gd/h6IKBt | 23:31 |
| hooligan | https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-stringency-index?tab=chart&country=FIN~USA~GBR~SWE~DNK~DEU~EST~FRA~GRC~ITA~BEL~NOR~NLD~HRV | 23:32 |
| LjL | i don't know if the stringency index is well representative though. it's hard to turn these various measures into numbers | 23:33 |
| hooligan | what else we have? | 23:34 |
| LjL | hooligan, the Oxford restrictions database and me promising to look into it for months :P | 23:34 |
| LjL | but anyway, if we take the stringency index as representative | 23:34 |
| LjL | it looks like sweden had less "jumps" in restrictions | 23:34 |
| hooligan | make a nice presentation so we can do good comparison using it | 23:34 |
| LjL | compared to mediterranean/tourism countries like Italy or Greece or Croatia where the restrictions were tighter than Sweden in the winter, but looser in the summer | 23:35 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Spain: +328 deaths (now 81331) since 3 days ago — India: +724 deaths (now 408764) since 23 hours ago | 23:35 |
| LjL | lol, i need to become a covid youtube pseudo-expert :P | 23:35 |
| hooligan | wich winter? eastern europe was tightest spring 2020, and they got to really low cases, opening up fast, and then forgot about the damn thing | 23:36 |
| LjL | i was looking at the past winter, the one before that was just too hectic | 23:37 |
| LjL | like, winter 2020, italy was by far the first to introduce restrictions in that graph, and strong ones. imagine why O.o | 23:37 |
| LjL | but winter 2021 and the preceding summer can be compared better | 23:38 |
| hooligan | but its july, guys. its over! | 23:38 |
| hooligan | .title https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53244688 | 23:38 |
| Brainstorm | hooligan: From www.bbc.com: Coronavirus: Czechs hold 'farewell party' for pandemic - BBC News | 23:38 |
| LjL | it's over? YAY /CS CLEAR USERS | 23:38 |
| LjL | i wonder what Kreyren would think about that farewell party but someone would have to unban him first *cough* | 23:40 |
| twomoon | we can czech the pandemic off our to-do list | 23:40 |
| LjL | %slap twomoon | 23:41 |
| * Brainstorm owns twomoon | 23:41 | |
| nixonix | .title https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/dutch-pm-apologises-easing-covid-19-curbs-cases-soar-2021-07-12/ | 23:50 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.reuters.com: Dutch PM apologises for easing of COVID-19 curbs as cases soar | Reuters | 23:50 |
| nixonix | "What we thought would be possible, turned out not to be possible in practice," Rutte told reporters on Monday. "We had poor judgement, which we regret and for which we apologise." | 23:50 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: WHO chief says 'greed' of richer countries is prolonging the coronavirus pandemic → https://is.gd/MouwRL | 23:52 |
| nixonix | https://twitter.com/mask_up_sweden/status/1414612787138109441 | 23:53 |
| nixonix | in uk they said 2x, though. i havent checked out yet, if they have updated estimates https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1414360616983220233 | 23:56 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/07/the-pandemic-drove-asthma-attacks-down-why/619396/ | 23:57 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.theatlantic.com: What Asthma Triggers Matter the Most? - The Atlantic | 23:57 |
Generated by irclog2html.py 2.17.0 by Marius Gedminas - find it at https://mg.pov.lt/irclog2html/!
