libera/##covid-19/ Thursday, 2021-07-15

de-factoa more contagious mutant always got a positive selection00:00
de-factoand most of the infections happen in the early phase, when it replicates in the upper respiratory tract, before people even get symptoms00:00
de-factoespecially with Delta this seems to happen even more efficiently00:00
de-factoviral shedding is much more with it00:01
alkeryn[m]yea but what you care about isn't people not having it, you care about people not dying / having symptoms00:01
alkeryn[m]so if you only isolated the ones that did have symptoms, the virus would tend to evolve into less symptomatic strains.00:01
de-factonope, because most infections already happened by the time when symptoms occur00:02
de-factoits already too late to isolate then00:02
alkeryn[m]if you isolate everyone indiscriminately, it just will "try" to become more contagious if not more symptomatic as symptoms are corelated with more higher contagion risks00:02
de-factothats one of the reasons this spreads so efficiently, carriers are not aware that they are highly infecitous00:02
alkeryn[m]not really defacto, in virology, most contagions are done by the symptomatics00:02
alkeryn[m]asymptomatics have never been the carrier of a pandemic.00:03
alkeryn[m]yes they can be contagious00:03
alkeryn[m]but they tend to be extremely less than people that are sick00:03
de-factowhy would someone with symptoms go ahead and infect others?00:03
alkeryn[m]no00:03
alkeryn[m]my point is, someone that has symptoms should self isolate00:03
alkeryn[m]and symptoms are a mechanism that allow for more contagion, ex sneezing00:04
alkeryn[m]people that have symptoms tend to have a much higher viral load than those that just test positive00:04
alkeryn[m]also they sneeze etc...00:04
LjLalkeryn[m], "in virology", not all viruses are equal... with this particular virus, i won't say it's *completely clear*, but there were definitely studies concluding that the peak contagiousness happens like one day before becoming symptomatic00:04
alkeryn[m]fair enough, but still Ljl most people are completly asymptomatic, and the symptomatic ones tend to be for days to weeks00:05
LjLi don't think most people are completely asymptomatic00:05
alkeryn[m]so 1 day of high contagiousness is nothing compared to the whole span in which they are highly contagious00:05
alkeryn[m]isolating only the sick would still alow to trend to less symptomatic strains most likely00:05
alkeryn[m]well they actually are lmao00:05
alkeryn[m]look how much people are tested with no symptoms whatsoever00:05
alkeryn[m]and now you have to think that there is a bias in testing00:06
alkeryn[m]as the sick will tend to get tested more than the ones that are not00:06
alkeryn[m]most asymptomatic aren't even tested00:06
LjL%links asymptomatic lombardy00:06
BrainstormLjL, Sorry, nothing found. Try with broader keywords00:06
LjLdid i make it case sensitive like an idiot?00:06
LjL%links asymptomatic Lombardy00:06
BrainstormLjL, Sorry, nothing found. Try with broader keywords00:06
LjLbleh, anyway, https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.0847100:06
alkeryn[m]ex if you are very sick you will go to an hospital which will test you, same if you die from it00:07
alkeryn[m]which is also why it creates a bias00:07
alkeryn[m]thanks i'll read it later00:07
alkeryn[m]i like reading data from both "camps"00:07
de-factoafaik most infections come from the ability of SARS-CoV-2 to replicate very efficiently in the upper respiratory tract, without even causing many symptoms at first (it suppresses innate immunity responses), but people already being highly contagious, e.g. by singing or talking or spitting at each others etc00:07
alkeryn[m]well fair enough, though studies has already been done with people in rooms and whatnot00:08
alkeryn[m]it isn't super contagious00:08
de-factoits extremely contagious00:08
de-factomuch more than influenza etc00:08
alkeryn[m]if it was as much as you think there would be a lot more death even though it kills very little people00:08
alkeryn[m]contagiousness is pm on par with a bad flu season00:08
de-factoin Netherlands they had 800 cases at July 1st and 10000 cases at July 10th, thats 12-fold increase00:09
alkeryn[m]well, it has never been observed in a controlled setting though00:09
de-factoin my book that is extremely contagious00:09
alkeryn[m]and cases aren't a good metric as they use PCR which is highly unreliable00:09
de-factoomg i am out of here00:09
alkeryn[m]but even assuming pcr wasn't total bonkers as a test00:09
alkeryn[m]lol00:09
alkeryn[m]dude you should look into it00:09
alkeryn[m]heck the creator of pcr itself pointed it out.00:09
alkeryn[m]also that 12 fold increase isn't nothing crazy, it's still contagious even though not that much, you will still have an exponential that eventually plateau00:11
LjLalkeryn[m], https://github.com/ljl-covid/links#epidemiology shows that a minority of people are asymptomatic. these numbers are biased by testing favoring people with symptoms, okay. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20053157v1 tested *everyone* in the town repeatedly and they still found only 43% asymptomatic00:12
LjLi swear https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.08471 also used to say 36.1% asymptomatic but i can't find it neither in the abstract nor in the text now00:13
LjLif PCR is "bonkers" and even its creator pointed it out, though, feel free to provide exhaustive references to that...00:14
alkeryn[m]there was a hour long talk of kerry mullis in which he mentioned few of the pitfalls, you can find it pretty easily.00:15
alkeryn[m]but tldr, you can find pretty much anything you want to look for with pcr with enough cycles00:15
alkeryn[m]with 35+ cycles you can get near 100% false positive00:15
alkeryn[m]so amplifying can be fine if you then check some viral load and whatnot00:15
alkeryn[m]but the issue is mostly that the number of cycle isn't standardised at all00:16
alkeryn[m]and not consistent through time00:16
alkeryn[m]a lot of contries increase the number of cycles and suddenly you have more case per % tested00:16
alkeryn[m]also the number of people tested / day isn't consistent00:16
LjL"Mullis attracted controversy for denying humans' role in climate change and for expressing doubts that HIV causes AIDS,[6][7][8]" ← seems to have Nobel syndrome00:17
alkeryn[m]but even if you do number of test / positive, you can fake a spike by just increasing the number of cycles00:17
alkeryn[m]<LjL ""Mullis attracted controversy fo"> maybe, maybe not, you should look at what were his argument before dissmissing it alltogether00:17
alkeryn[m]i don't agree with him on the climate change thing.00:17
alkeryn[m]but on the HIV one he had some compelling ones and i'm quite neutral to it.00:18
alkeryn[m]also wikipedia isn't very reliable, they actually edit history whenever someone says something that doesn't go with some agendas00:18
himesamaalkeryn[m]: sorry if this was covered but there would be selective pressure to be contagious before symptoms appear in your scheme00:19
alkeryn[m]ex editing out robert malone contributions to mrna technology or downplaying his involvment after he expressed concerns with the vaccine.00:19
alkeryn[m]<himesama "alkeryn: sorry if this was cover"> yes there is selective pressure to be contagious in both case, but you care more about symptoms, no one would care about the virus if it was super contagious but had close to no symptoms00:20
alkeryn[m]heck there are a lot of virus rn that no one is even aware of simply because they just pass through00:20
alkeryn[m]you most likely have thousands of live viruses inside you rn, most of them just don't do much.00:20
himesamaalkeryn[m]: true, but if you only isolate symptomatics, then the only transmission will be asymptomatioc.  i know of no virology rule that says that symptoms will reduce by increasing transmission while asymptomatic.  of course, as i am not a virologist, that is no surprise.00:21
alkeryn[m]eventually some mutate and becomes more symptomatic.00:21
LjLif you're "neutral" about HIV causing AIDS, i think i will pull a de-facto and go do something else (like stare at the wall) because today is not a good day for that00:21
himesamathere IS a rule that says that over time stuff becomes less symptomatic,and idk the relation to your ypothesis if any00:21
alkeryn[m]<himesama "alkeryn: true, but if you only i"> yup, but do you really care about people getting it if no one is every sick, that's also in parts why new disease in the past "dimmed" down over time, not only people developped imunity, but virus tend to be less symptomatics due to humans intuitively avoiding to get close to sick people, and sick people tending to stay at home to rest00:22
alkeryn[m]also, in history, as a virus become more contagious it also tend to become less symptomatic00:22
LjLa "rule" that is more like a myth that i've never seen stated without a lot of caveats credibly00:22
alkeryn[m]my point is, if you just did nothing, eventually covid would pm become a non issue that's just as bad if not even nicer that the common cold00:23
alkeryn[m]and it'll just be another common cold00:23
himesamaalkeryn[m]: we are talking past each other.  i think everybody gets your point but we are disagreeing with the assumption that symptoms will go down as i at least would like to know mechanism for htat.00:23
alkeryn[m]NPI are just making things worse, especially since you allow the reservoir of "viable" host to replenish fast enough00:23
alkeryn[m]that's why the spanish flu died off, it just ran out of reservoir of people that weren't imune00:23
alkeryn[m]sure it had a cost high in lives00:23
alkeryn[m]but if you tried to slow down its progression, the reservoir would be replenished and it would have killed a lot more people over time00:24
LjLhttps://github.com/ljl-covid/links/blob/master/COVID-19-chat.md00:25
alkeryn[m]<himesama "alkeryn: we are talking past eac"> there are 2 mechanism, people getting immunity and natural selection and it can be observed in pm all of recorded history of diseases.00:26
himesamaok maybe my brain is not in any shape to understand you right now00:26
alkeryn[m]let's say everyone got the virus at once, there would be a lot more death than if you only contaminated let's say 20% of the population every years for decades for ex.00:26
alkeryn[m]haha don't worry it's fine00:26
alkeryn[m]i don't wanted to get into a deep debate anyway ^00:27
alkeryn[m]besides i'm not a native english speaker so there is a bit of a language barrier00:27
alkeryn[m]anyway @Ljl00:28
alkeryn[m]anyway LjL thanks for the links i'll read some of it and add it to my collection.00:28
BrainstormUpdates for Cauca, Colombia: +799 cases (now 46908), +9 deaths (now 1214) since a day ago — Canada: +7 deaths (now 26457) since 21 hours ago00:29
himesamai still disagree enough to not say i agree, but will shift to a different topic... "            you only i"> yup, but do you really care about people getting it if no one is every sick, that's also in parts why new disease" yes i do.  i care very much.  and so shold the world (but does not yet).  the reason is that asymptomatic infections are, i believe, causing long covid.  i think in nontrivial proportions.  world00:30
himesama = titanic.  lc = iceberg.00:30
alkeryn[m]but one of the logic is also, if a virus kills all of its hosts it has an extreme disadvantage compared to one that just pass through and do its things00:32
alkeryn[m]even one that just make people sick, as people will tend to get away from them etc...00:32
joergI seen too many false assertions in last maybe 300 lines than I could debunk right now00:32
alkeryn[m]which is in part why over time they tend to become more contagious and less deadly00:32
alkeryn[m]it's not a rule of the genome itself that "more contagious = less deadly" it's just a trend that can be observed in history so it is more of a rule of thumb00:33
alkeryn[m]<himesama "i still disagree enough to not s"> eh, long covid isn't a huge percentage of people that get it, and if you cared about asymptomatic viruses that much, there are thousands of them inside you right now00:34
alkeryn[m]heck some are built into our genome and our cells produce them on a daily basis00:34
alkeryn[m]human genome has a lot of foreign virus dna inside it, in fact it is very often used as a technique to trace back ancestry in genetics.00:35
joergfor a start let me say that we have pretty good and professionally de-biased studies yielding percentage of asymptomatic cases, and they are not as high as you try to suggest up there00:35
alkeryn[m]that is one of the many reasons we know some species and fossils are ancestors to humans00:35
alkeryn[m]well there are also some builtin virus that are just innactive code / "junk dna"00:35
alkeryn[m]<joerg "for a start let me say that we h"> that can be tricked with the sensitivity of the pcr00:36
alkeryn[m]point is, asymptomatics will tend to have a lower viral load00:36
alkeryn[m]so if you tune your pcr cycle just fine you can easily make a "cutoff" point00:36
BrainstormNew from The Lancet (Online): [Seminar] Lung cancer: Lung cancer is one of the most frequently diagnosed cancers and the leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide with an estimated 2 million new cases and 1·76 million deaths per year. Substantial improvements in our understanding of disease biology, application of predictive biomarkers, and [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/TTNzDO00:37
joerganother fallacy, people evaluating PCR results are no idiots00:37
alkeryn[m]let's say they used 45 pcr cycle, they'd have had a nearly 100% assymptomatic00:37
alkeryn[m]if you use 25 cycles you'll get much closer to 50% asymptomatic etc...00:37
alkeryn[m]<joerg "another fallacy, people evaluati"> i never said that they are, but that it should be taken with a grain of salt00:37
alkeryn[m]and that pcr isn't a good tool for that job00:37
alkeryn[m]as you can pm get any asymptomatic % you are trying to get00:38
alkeryn[m]you could get 99.9 % asymptomatic as much as 1% asymptomatic depending of how you tune your testing method00:38
alkeryn[m]not saying that it is done intentionally, but that there is no good way of measuring this00:38
LjL<alkeryn[m]> heck some are built into our genome and our cells produce them on a daily basis  ←  "DNA fossils" of viruses you can find in our genome don't generally mean that the virus is still being *made* by our body00:38
alkeryn[m]it's not a simple as "infected" and "non infected", it's more of a viral load thing.00:39
joergsorry, I got no time to "answer" each of your statements, since each answer would need another 5 messages explaining what's wrong with that last statement00:39
alkeryn[m]<LjL "<alkeryn[m]> heck some are b"> yep i mentioned it latter, whilst some are being made, most of it is innactive junk dna00:39
himesamai had to kill my client to fix it.  i am afraid that we might be dunning-krugering here.00:39
alkeryn[m]<joerg "sorry, I got no time to "answer""> fair enough dw ^00:39
alkeryn[m]<himesama "i had to kill my client to fix i"> what do you mean, what happened to your client ?00:40
alkeryn[m]haha i'm well aware of dunning krueger, anyway i'm not really making any bold claims00:40
himesamai couldn't enter text and stuff like that never mind00:40
alkeryn[m]ah sucks00:40
joergdid matrix recently invent a "reply to" feature? could that get deactivated, pretty please?00:40
himesamayour statment that lc is not a huge percentage sounds like a bold claim to me, and i awanted to make sure that nobody thought that lc = asymptomatic as when i said asymptomatic is wass not referring to lc00:41
alkeryn[m]anyway, i'm not claiming to be an expert on the topic, i'm fundamentally not a virologist, but i'm still a scientist and i know basic statistics00:41
LjLthe claim that PCR is not an adequate tool for testing COVID may "not be bold" in certain circles, unfortunately those are circles i've liked a lot00:41
himesamano big deal about client i just restarted it and it works i am not picky00:41
alkeryn[m]my point is you can have "cuttoff points" with pcr quite easily, it's not a good tool to measure asymptomatic %00:41
alkeryn[m]<LjL "the claim that PCR is not an ade"> oh, well now it was more about the claim that it isn't an adequate tool to measure the percentage of people that are asymptomatic as the cutoff point is kind of arbitrary00:42
alkeryn[m]<himesama "no big deal about client i just "> what client do you use ? :^)00:42
himesamait was oissibly my own config error i don't want to talk about it00:43
alkeryn[m]i see00:43
alkeryn[m]<joerg "did matrix recently invent a "re"> whilst it is builtin the protocol, in the end it is your client's responsibility to interpret it, so it must be a client specific thing, maybe yours has an option to ignore them.00:44
joergsorry, I'm an *IRC* user00:45
alkeryn[m]hahaha same00:45
alkeryn[m]yea only started using matrix few days ago00:45
alkeryn[m]i like that in irc you can just write the name of the person and that's it00:45
himesamapercentages of lc (in asymptomatic or symptomatic) are probably tricky to define until we get good clinical biomarkers, but i have never read opinion from any knowledgeable commentators that was low.  (there migh be some but consensus is at or larger than 9-20 percent).  the trouble is 1) defining it phenotypically 2) progression of the disease.  politicians are gambling with lives re 2).00:46
himesamaand they are not making a good bet at all but instead bettin that they will be out of office before tey face any consequences personally from the devastation tehy wreak00:47
LjLjoerg, it's not recent at all, it has had it for a long time. some Matrix users use it more, some less. I do ask Matrix users to limit the user of edits, replies and multiline messages as far as practicable since i still consider this primarily an IRC channel00:47
alkeryn[m]what do you mean exactly by lc ?00:47
alkeryn[m]yea00:47
LjLjoerg, it can't be disabled though. in the future some Matrix features may be disabled per-room, there's an issue filed about that with interest from Matthew (Matrix's head person), but probably not replies00:48
himesamalong covid, defined loosely as at this point i can't and shouldn't try to go into details much00:48
alkeryn[m]Ah ok my bad, sometime i struggle a bit with english acronyms lol00:48
alkeryn[m]yea, i mean none of this stuff is black and white so it can be tricky to work with in term of statistics00:48
alkeryn[m]though lc could be loosely definined as symptoms that don't disappear months after recovery if not permanent.00:49
himesamasure00:50
himesamagood enough for me00:50
alkeryn[m]though, there is also another kind of lc that could be possible, symptoms that appears at first only months or years after recovery and not just symptoms that just didn't disapear00:50
himesamabut SERIOUS symptoms00:50
alkeryn[m]ex you got covid now and 10 years down the line you get kidney cancer or some shit like that00:50
himesamaright yes good point00:50
alkeryn[m]tbh i wouldn't be surprised if it leads to brain issues years latter as this spike protein is known to cross the blood brain barrier.00:53
alkeryn[m]though i'm not claiming it would be the case, that would be quite a bold statement lmao00:53
alkeryn[m]and with things like azheimer that can be caused by some protein in the brain00:53
alkeryn[m]shit wouldn't be the wildest thing there is00:53
alkeryn[m]though, as much with covid than the vaccine, there simply isn't enough data to assert anything about the future with confidence00:54
himesamaplenty of diseases do that so it's not impossible either but we have data on post-viral diseases.  the policymaking seems to ignore this body of research.00:55
alkeryn[m]and as much as i don't want to take my risk with the vaccine, you can say that there isn't enough long term data for the virus just as much.00:56
alkeryn[m]yea, well policy makers usually ignore a lot of things00:56
alkeryn[m]though, i'm on the side that it should be the concerned people's individual choice00:57
himesamaidgi00:57
himesamawe could have no npi at all and it's personal choice?  i'd say negative externalties do exist.00:58
alkeryn[m]though the vaccine does seems more risky to me than the virus, maybe it isn't, not gonna tell you what to do but i'm just for people having the right to make their own decision00:58
himesamaoic, the vax nm00:58
alkeryn[m]i mean data has shown npi to not be very effective if not detrimental on the longterm00:58
alkeryn[m]though "npi" is a broad category00:58
alkeryn[m]there are many npi some being worse than others00:59
alkeryn[m]oic ? nm ?00:59
joergLjL: thanks for clarifying00:59
alkeryn[m]though, there is no real solution besides just living with it now, even if you vaccinated everyone overnight, the virus would probably still not disappear, let alone the fact that you couldn't possibly pull that off.01:01
alkeryn[m]i guess i'd be for the people at risk having access to the vaccine, and making their own choice based on the assessed risk01:01
alkeryn[m]and the rest of the people just living normally pre cv1901:02
joergthe virus definitely won't disappear01:02
alkeryn[m] * i guess i'd be for the people at risk having easy access to the vaccine, and making their own choice based on the assessed risk01:02
alkeryn[m]well then there is the whole political and economic side of the whole debate and covid passport bullshit, but seems to be a bit out of context so maybe not worth arguing about that01:03
de-facto"though the vaccine does seems more risky to me than the virus" what do you mean by risky here?01:03
alkeryn[m]still, i'm a lot more against vaccination passports than the vax itself01:03
alkeryn[m]<de-facto ""though the vaccine does seems m"> possible long term effects, no one having legal liability, a lot of reported side effects and deaths already, and with my health and level of health me being very unlikely to have issues with covid19.01:04
alkeryn[m]at my age and 0 comorbidities, there might be a lot more risk with vaccine adverse reaction than covid itself tldr.01:05
alkeryn[m]that's not so the case if you are like 40 or 5001:05
alkeryn[m]especially if you have comorbidities01:05
himesamaare you a teenager?01:06
alkeryn[m]but yea health wise i'm probably one the 99th percentile or something like that01:06
himesama(not an insult)01:07
alkeryn[m]just turned 23 yesterday01:07
alkeryn[m]though i'm in top physical shape01:07
alkeryn[m]i have an impecable diet01:07
alkeryn[m]i never drink, don't smoke, no drugs01:07
alkeryn[m]exercise regularly01:07
alkeryn[m]healthy lifestyle overall01:07
alkeryn[m]and yea, i virtually never get sick.01:07
alkeryn[m]though i do understand that it isn't the case for most people01:08
de-factothat is not true, the approval itself is done by a metric that is called the individual benefit to risk ratio, it compares two scenarios, 1) getting covid without vaccination 2) getting vaccinated hence preventing getting covid with naive immune system, so there has to be a clear benefit from vaccination otherwise it wont be approved for that group01:08
joergI guess you won't find a lot of similar minded persons in here, ut seems established knowledge that the vaccine isn't more dangerous to any particular person than the virus, after all they both do pretty much the identical thing to that person's body just the virus much more aggressively and with a collection of bonus damage on top01:08
alkeryn[m]but yea in my case i probably don't risk a lot with cv01:08
alkeryn[m]<de-facto "that is not true, the approval i"> this ignores the vaccine adverse effects01:08
himesamait sounds like this whole discussion might be related to your concern that you will be vaccinated against your will?  i would caution that stating that npi are not always useful, lc is low percentage, etc. in service of an argument to keep that from occurring to you could distort unrelated topics, if you are not careful.  your best bet would be to focus on your individual rights issue i think except then we get to t01:08
himesamaalk about your moral obligation not to infect others.01:08
de-factono it does not ignore the adverse effects of the vaccine01:09
BrainstormNew from The Lancet (Online): [Articles] Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1: After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/VEUTst01:09
alkeryn[m]<himesama "alk about your moral obligation "> if they don't wanna get infected, don't get close to me, or stay at home, besides, the vaccine don't prevent transmission.01:09
de-factothose are the first thing that are evaluated in the trials, direct adverse effects and they monitor the participants for long time after that01:09
alkeryn[m]<de-facto "those are the first thing that a"> there are possibly long term adverse effect and just look at VAERS01:09
de-factomaybe you should try to read the protocols01:09
alkeryn[m]besides vaers is only a fraction of the actual ones01:10
alkeryn[m]a lot just go unreported or counted as covid01:10
alkeryn[m]besides, most of the companies involved in this already had scandals in the past01:10
alkeryn[m]some including data falsification01:10
joergand one thing's for sure, like the preacher's "amen": you get immune or dead, one way or the other01:10
alkeryn[m]and they still don't have any legal liability whatsoever01:10
de-factoyeah i know VAERS, those are nothing compared to the health problems all those people would have if exposed to the risk of COVID without vaccination in advance01:10
alkeryn[m]that can be discussed01:11
joergas I said, it been discussed in here already01:11
de-factoat the peak around 5k people died from COVID in US01:12
de-factoeach single day01:12
alkeryn[m]<de-facto "at the peak around 5k people die"> the data is being manipulated though01:12
alkeryn[m]over 94% had on average 2.70 comorbidities01:12
alkeryn[m]us population is also super unhealthy01:12
alkeryn[m]with 1/3 obese and 2/3 overweight01:12
de-factoso do we see an increase or decrease in the hospitalizations and fatal outcomes with vaccinations?01:13
joerghow many died from vaccination at peak of vax campaign which obviously did more "cases" per day than covid?01:13
alkeryn[m]point is, US demography don't represent me at all01:13
alkeryn[m]<de-facto "so do we see an increase or decr"> too soon to reach a conclusion, many countries having an increase and some having a decrease01:13
alkeryn[m]anyway, all cause mortality is imo a better metric01:13
himesamai'm finding this a bit hard to wrap my head around: "if they don't wanna get infected, don't get close to me, or stay at home"01:13
alkeryn[m]<joerg "how many died from vaccination a"> also, how many are reported01:13
de-factosure look at Indonesia and UK, both having their Delta wave01:14
alkeryn[m]in the last few months more died from the vaccine in australia than covid01:14
joergoh please, yeah, the numbers all are manipulated01:14
alkeryn[m]though there is the fact that they don't have a lot of covid to begin with, they are an island that closed the border lol01:14
alkeryn[m]<joerg "oh please, yeah, the numbers all"> i didn't said that, but that there is a bias01:14
joerg[15 Jul 2021 01:12:34] <alkeryn[m]> <de-facto "at the peak around 5k people die"> the data is being manipulated01:15
joerg[15 Jul 2021 01:13:59] <alkeryn[m]> <joerg "how many died from vaccination a"> also, how many are reported01:15
alkeryn[m]besides you see people die just right after the vaccine and they'll be like "it's prolly not the vaccine/needs to be looked into more" and you see people that died of probably something else instantly marked as covid death01:15
alkeryn[m]heck terminal cancer patient that were flagged as a covid death01:15
de-factohttp://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom;Indonesia&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&miscType=Reff01:15
LjLalkeryn[m], VAERS being a "fraction of the actual ones" is only true if it weren't also true that VAERS contains a lot of things that *aren't* really caused by the vaccine, but just happen around the time the vaccine is taken01:16
LjLi'm about to file a report to my local VAERS equivalent, yet i don't know for sure that it is actually related to the vaccine01:16
alkeryn[m]<LjL "alkeryn, VAERS being a "fraction"> that is a fair point01:16
himesamathose claims are common but usually by those that deny the pandemic and have political reasons to do so.  it would be useful to hve some backing for them for the experts in this channel to comment on.01:16
alkeryn[m]though, there has been more VAERS reports this years than in the last 20 or so years01:16
joergalkeryn[m]: sorry, we are beyond that discussion in here I hoped. at least we're fed up by users telling us "the truth" they discovered01:16
alkeryn[m]besides, there are many mechanisms in which the vaccine could harm you which corelates with people's complications01:16
de-factohint: compare how fatalities follow cases in both countries until UK vaccinated a lot of their population01:16
LjLalkeryn[m], there's also been more pandemics this year than in the last 100 or so years01:17
alkeryn[m]<joerg "alkeryn: sorry, we are beyond th"> yea i'm not telling you "OMG LOOK AT THE TRUTH" but that there are things that are worth looking into and that some of it is definitely shady at best01:17
alkeryn[m]<de-facto "hint: compare how fatalities fol"> countries that no longer test vaccinated people, you should also take that into account01:17
himesamavague mention of them does not help at this point in this particular case, i think01:17
alkeryn[m]since they don't test, they won't count as covid death01:17
joergand what makes you think we didn't hear of those things a hundered times already and looked into them?01:18
alkeryn[m]ex : https://news.northeastern.edu/2021/06/09/northeastern-to-suspend-covid-19-testing-for-fully-vaccinated-individuals/01:18
alkeryn[m]yea well it is at best disingenuous01:18
de-factowhat? COVID fatalities not being tested?01:18
alkeryn[m]"oh vaccinated people don't get covid" *stops testing vaccinated people*01:18
de-factoits the first thing they probably do when you enter a hospital with symptoms, test with PCR01:19
LjLalkeryn[m], that says that "all fully vaccinated members of the Northeastern University community will no longer need to be tested regularly", it doesn't say that people with actual symptoms (nevermind death) won't get tested01:19
LjLregular testings are quite a different thing01:19
alkeryn[m]fair enough, still it points to "case" not being a good metric01:19
alkeryn[m]death is still fine01:19
* alkeryn[m] uploaded an image: (49KiB) < https://libera.ems.host/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/kYhTdDlGAmQkbcVYlwgaSCFS/image.png >01:20
joergI really don't like your biased flooding01:20
alkeryn[m]you absolutely can't attribute it to the vaccine, that just looks like any summer low01:20
de-factowell and infection to fatality ratio seems to fall a lot with vaccinations, hence there is a clear benefit from vaccinations lowering the risk of severe COVID by orders of magnitude01:20
alkeryn[m]winter will tell really01:20
de-factoto me that looks like there is MUCH more risk from covid than from vaccinations01:21
alkeryn[m]<de-facto "well and infection to fatality r"> yes i do agree that it reduce the risk of death from covid01:21
alkeryn[m]but it also come with a risk of dying from the vaccine itself01:21
alkeryn[m]and that risk is probably higher for me than the risk of dying of covid01:21
alkeryn[m]considering what demographic i'm a part of01:21
alkeryn[m]that's not the case for everyoen01:21
alkeryn[m] * that's not the case for everyone01:21
de-factothats what i meant with *individual* benefit to risk ratio01:21
de-factoit depends on your age of course01:21
alkeryn[m]though there is also the risk that the vaccine whilst protecting you from current strains prime you to be more vulnerable to future strains01:22
alkeryn[m]which is something that has already been observed in the past.01:22
LjLnow we go with the ADE01:22
alkeryn[m]yea01:22
alkeryn[m]anyway, my point is, it should always be the individual's choice01:22
joerg>><alkeryn[m]> and that risk is probably higher for me than the risk of dying of covid<< no, the risk of dying from vaccination is almost *never* higher than the risk from the virus itself01:22
LjLsome of your arguments sound reasonable but it looks like a script. i've seen other people shoveling out the same arguments the same way in the same order...01:22
himesamai missed this 16:22 <alkeryn[m]> though there is also the risk that the vaccine whilst protecting you from current strains prime you to be more vulnerable to future strains01:22
alkeryn[m]and for me specifically, the vaccine seems to be a bigger risk01:22
de-factohence they collect enough data until they approve it for each age group, and since you are older than 18 there is a clear benefit from vaccination in lowering the COVID risk for you, taken the risk of (very rare) vaccine side effects into account of course01:22
joergLjL: pretty much, yeah01:23
alkeryn[m]<himesama "i missed this 16:22 <alkeryn> th"> haha yea, i'm not gonna push this one too much though, we don't know enough01:23
alkeryn[m]really, imo, only this winter will tell01:23
alkeryn[m]will we see lower all cause mortality than last years and other years01:23
alkeryn[m]or more01:23
de-factoyou know they use statistics for deriving those statements, if you got a benefit from vaccination01:23
alkeryn[m]you can't easily compare during summer as it is mostly seasonal unfortunately01:23
alkeryn[m]de-facto, i'm not quite sure of that.01:24
alkeryn[m]besides, although annectdotal, i've heard a lot more people having issue with the vax than covid in my age group, although i aknowledge that it could just be an echo chamber01:24
de-factoi dont understand from what statistic you think "for me specifically, the vaccine seems to be a bigger risk", are you in a risk group for vaccines and cant get it for some reason that differentiates you from the majority in your age group?01:25
alkeryn[m]which is also why i try to interact as much as possible with both sides of the argument01:25
alkeryn[m]<de-facto "i dont understand from what stat"> it isn't just my age group, on top of being only 23 i'm in impeccable health01:25
alkeryn[m]the vaccine seems like a much bigger risk, especially since some people in perfect health did die from it too.01:25
LjLdid the guy from yesterday who said his acute COVID was a "joke" but then after one year he's still not back in health, cannot build muscle mass while he did that regularly before, etc, tell us his age?01:26
alkeryn[m]and i heard about a lot more people in good health dying from the vax than covid although that's unreliable data.01:26
de-factoyou heard from a lot of people dying form the vax?01:26
himesamawhat woul dit take to convinvce you?01:26
alkeryn[m]<LjL "did the guy from yesterday who s"> yea, doesn't surprise me, though i'm never gonna take a single statement01:26
de-factoi dont think this would go unnoticed01:27
himesamalol de-facto01:27
alkeryn[m]annectodatal evidence don't have a lot of value by itself, but if you got thousands of them it becomes more statistically significant01:27
LjLde-facto, i doubt he could hear from them if they're dead01:27
alkeryn[m]as long as you don't cherry pic that  is01:27
alkeryn[m]Ljl sure but you can hear from the families01:27
alkeryn[m]i heard many families say that their kids died of covid01:27
alkeryn[m]but i heard more that said the kid had issue with the vaccine01:27
alkeryn[m]though again, that's not hard evidence by scientific methodology and standards01:28
alkeryn[m]but when making a decision for oneself, intuition obviously should take a part.01:28
alkeryn[m]and it's not like my position is that crazy anyway.01:28
himesamaalkeryn[m]: lots of those who are young do get lc efven if they do not get significant or any symptoms.  i hope you are factoring that in.01:28
alkeryn[m]yup, in fact my sister is one of them01:29
LjLalkeryn[m], "died" vs "had issues" isn't much of a fair comparison. many more people "had issues" (including long-term ones) with COVID than those who just died.01:29
alkeryn[m]indeed01:29
alkeryn[m]but the same can be said for the vaccine01:29
de-factoanecdotal cases here and there, some horror stories, it all does not matter at all. the only thing that matters are statistics, and that is exactly the metric for approval in a specific group of people01:30
himesamathe numbers talked about for significant side effects of vaccine that do not go away seem extremely small.  are the numbers being maniupulated?01:30
himesamayou saying*01:30
LjLyes, but some of the vaccine's issues are basically non-issues. having a moderate fever for a day is certainly annoying but no big deal. other issues may be more serious, but i really don't know that anyone has determined there are more issues with the vaccine than the risks COVID would bring overall for someone aged 23, considering they're authorizing for ages 12-18 now01:30
LjLand it's not like they completely stomp on issues either. they did stop AZ for people younger than 60 in most of europe, even though that was overcautious and they could probably have focused on younger women instead01:31
BrainstormUpdates for Fiji: +634 cases (now 12666), +10 deaths (now 69) since a day ago01:31
de-factoi got my shot two days ago, i got some issues, my arm hurts, i got a headache, so what? it will be gone in a few days and i got some immunity against COVID that will lower my probability for severe COVID by orders of magnitude, i am quite thankful that this was offered to me01:31
alkeryn[m]de-facto, the statistics should be taken with a grain of salt if they are being played with although i do look at them01:31
alkeryn[m]same for annecdotal evidence01:31
alkeryn[m]though i'm gonna say this, even though it isn't with a controlled environement, thousands of annecdotal evidence do become statistics as long as you don't cherry pic and account for bias, although that should still be taken with a grain of salt and has ofc way less value than a double blind and whatnot would01:31
alkeryn[m]de-facto, you will have to take shots again next year01:31
alkeryn[m]and every other years01:31
alkeryn[m]strains will become covid resistant01:31
alkeryn[m]you got sick from a shot, i get sick less than once a year without one01:32
alkeryn[m]not the best argument i give you that01:32
LjLyes, but stains have already shown they can become resistant to antibodies to the previous strain, so even people who get natural immunity won't be "safe"01:32
alkeryn[m]i might not get sick at all from the shot inded01:32
alkeryn[m] * i might not get sick at all from the shot either indeed01:32
LjLalkeryn[m], not the best indeed... i'm not nearly as fit as you say you are, but Pfizer did nothing to me, neither dose01:33
alkeryn[m]Ljl fair enough but you are ignoring the fact that antibodies aren't the whole immune system, vaccine only triggers that part, natural imunity is superior to vaccination01:33
himesamait is precisely because youa re in good health that if i were you i would take the vaccine01:33
alkeryn[m]and it has always been so in recorded history01:33
de-factoagain only statistics about majorities count, what you wish for if you get sick or not does not matter, what matters is if severe progressions can be lowered by vaccinations and that seems to be the case01:33
himesamayou have less reason  to bve concerned about the vacine01:33
LjLalkeryn[m], vaccines don't only trigger that part, that's bollocks. T-cell activations from vaccines has been studied and is being studied.01:33
alkeryn[m]besides, people that had other family of coronaviruses in the past still have an imune response sometime decades later01:33
alkeryn[m]yea but it is more than antibodies and T cells, besides it doesn't trigger them as much01:34
alkeryn[m]anyway, we are already seing vaccine resistant strains01:34
alkeryn[m]whilst some people are still imune to coronaviruses decades after first infection01:34
alkeryn[m]even though it isn't the same coronavirus01:34
LjLyes, and we started seeing them even before the vaccines had reached a meaningful portion of the population01:34
alkeryn[m]the fact that they are in the same family still means something01:34
LjLwhich means they were really developing to resist against *natural* immunity01:34
alkeryn[m]fair enough !01:35
joerg>><alkeryn[m]> annectodatal evidence don't have a lot of value by itself, but if you got thousands of them it becomes more statistically significant<< said the guy using anecdotal stuff for facts and produced more anecdotes serving as facts for other guys with similar agenda01:35
alkeryn[m]anyway, i rather risk getting covid every year than taking a vax every year01:35
alkeryn[m]do you also take your flu vax ?01:35
alkeryn[m]do you know many 20 year olds that do ?01:35
LjLi know elderly who do, and i know children who do. i certainly know many teenagers, and up to 20 and more, who are more rebellious to these things.01:35
alkeryn[m]<joerg ">><alkeryn> annectodatal evidenc"> i take into account the annecdotal evidence from both sides, i don't cherry pick01:36
alkeryn[m]and the medias and social network are leaning a lot more on the "take the vaccines" side01:36
alkeryn[m]and i don't take into account this bias even though i should01:36
joergyou beter did not take any side's anecdotes for anything01:36
alkeryn[m]i have them on their own side01:36
alkeryn[m]it's not the core of my argument01:36
alkeryn[m]it's more of a notable mention01:37
de-factostill i do think we need to monitor how the infeciton to fatality ratio develops over time, both with vaccinations and recoveries01:37
alkeryn[m] * it's more of a notable mention thing01:37
alkeryn[m] * it's more of a notable mentionsd thing01:37
alkeryn[m] * it's more of a notable mentions thing01:37
de-factobreakthrough will occur in boths01:37
alkeryn[m]definitely01:37
alkeryn[m]well, as i said before, this winter will tell how effective the vaccination is01:37
alkeryn[m]or if it is detrimental, who knows01:37
de-factoi am pretty sure its helpful, how much we indeed will see01:37
alkeryn[m]rn it is summer so yea for a seasonal thing, the vaccine being effective or not not much difference will be seen01:38
joergand for sure we're not interested in the conclusions from such anecdotes like >><alkeryn[m]> and i heard about a lot more people in good health dying from the vax than covid although that's unreliable data.<< which I simply call BS01:38
alkeryn[m] * rn it is summer so yea for a seasonal thing, the vaccine being effective or not, not much difference will be seen01:38
de-factoprobably immunity will get broader and broader with each antigen challenge01:38
LjLalkeryn[m], easy with the edits please, they're really quite disruptive on IRC if you do it more than once01:38
alkeryn[m]<joerg "and for sure we're not intereste"> yep, it is more of a notable mentions that do play with my intuition but not with my actual rational argument.01:38
alkeryn[m]still i am an human, so i won't ever only listen to my intuition to make decisions, but it does take a part01:39
de-factoi prefer to not risk ending up in a COVID station and rather have a headache for a few days at home while chatting :)01:39
alkeryn[m]intuition is an ability that we evolved over millions of years and you shouldn't completly ignore it nor completly rely on it01:39
alkeryn[m]well i'm more on the side that if i ever get covid i'll stay at home01:39
alkeryn[m]even if i'm really sick01:39
joergwe want others in here not suffering same fate, so please stop it01:39
alkeryn[m]worse case i die at home in my bed01:39
alkeryn[m]i won't go to the hospital01:40
alkeryn[m]joerg, you have to take into account that in the case that the vaccine is detrimental, you would be the one making people suffer, i'm not claiming that it is the case however, you cannot claim that it isn't yet01:40
alkeryn[m]either way we don't have enough data01:40
alkeryn[m]anyone claiming it is safe is either lying or ignorant, as we just simply don't have enough data01:41
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Vaccine manufacturer Moderna accused of tax avoidance | The US-based pharmaceuticals company passed the profits it made on sales of its coronavirus vaccine in Europe to a shell company in Switzerland to avoid paying tax, according to an investigation → https://is.gd/LFIWHz01:41
alkeryn[m]the same can be said if you said it is unsafe longterm01:41
alkeryn[m]though we do see adverse reaction right now, you cannot claim that there will be long term issues in the future either01:41
joergI can claim you're feeding stuff to others you admitted you yourself only get influenced by since you're human01:41
alkeryn[m]really, it is just "we don't know"01:41
alkeryn[m]i get influenced by with my decision making but i'm still relying on my rational mind more01:42
alkeryn[m]besides, it is more of a bayesian thing01:42
alkeryn[m]ex:01:42
alkeryn[m]there is a coworker at your job called john, you hate john01:43
alkeryn[m]Now why do you hate john, you hate him because he did many things, sometime very little that annoyed you in the past or that lead you to like him less01:43
alkeryn[m]now, do you remember of every single reason why you don't like john and every little thing he ever made that lead you to not liking him ? no01:43
alkeryn[m]that's how human memory works01:43
alkeryn[m]you can't remember everything you ever saw01:43
alkeryn[m]you can't remember every reasons you have an opinion01:43
joerghonestly, we're not exactly training users to build their own bayesian filters by feeding them with garbage01:43
alkeryn[m]however it has been built up over time for those reasons01:43
alkeryn[m]now the issue is people building up opinions on totally bonkers thing01:43
joergso please stop repeating anecdotal stuff in here01:43
alkeryn[m]there are people that are right for the wrong reasons, people that are wrong for the right reasons because of that01:44
himesamai kinda want to say i don't want a kantianly-expanded-to-all-of-mankind rule that "if they don't wanna get infected, don't get close to me, or stay at home".  please describe what they will need to do to avoid you?  shold we assume that if the tables were turned on you when you grow up and get sick with stuff (assuming for the sake of argument taht your healthy = safe idea is correct), think it's reasonable for that01:44
himesama rule to be imposed on yourself by a 23yo radical individualist?01:44
alkeryn[m]haha ok fair enough then, anyway it didn't really play a part in my point01:44
alkeryn[m]it was more about talking how i feel personally about the thing01:44
alkeryn[m]and you can't deny that there is a lot of shady stuff going on anyway01:44
alkeryn[m]<himesama "i kinda want to say i don't want"> if i'm sick, i'll stay the fuck at home, if i'm not, i'll go outside01:45
himesamabayesian inference is dispositiely influenced by what data you have01:45
alkeryn[m]people shouldn't stop living because of others's fears01:45
himesamaare you saying transmission  only occurs during symptoms?01:46
* joerg suggests to LjL to declare statements like >>i heard about a lot more people in good health dying from the vax than covid << as a ban-able statement01:46
alkeryn[m]himesama, i don't, though, symptomatic people will transmit a lot01:46
alkeryn[m]and in all recorded history, asymptomatic people have never been the carrier of a disease01:46
alkeryn[m]by carrier i meant the main one01:46
himesamahuh?01:46
alkeryn[m]it was mostly about people that do have symptoms01:46
alkeryn[m]> * <@joerg:libera.chat> suggests to LjL to declare statements like >>i heard about a lot more people in good health dying from the vax than covid << as a ban-able statement01:47
alkeryn[m]fair enough01:47
himesamaare you saying hiv/aids is transmitted mostly by symptomatic?01:47
LjLjoerg, that's more dTal's style :P i will ask for such statements to be sourced and mostly dismiss them if they're just anecdotes. but like, i say things that are not strictly sourced too, and i think it's okay to a point01:47
de-factofor epidemics the ability of infecting someone is what matters01:47
alkeryn[m]<himesama "are you saying hiv/aids is trans"> HIV / AIDS transmission has never ever been observed in a controlled environment01:47
de-factoif SARS-CoV-2 would not cause health problems we would not have this discussion here01:47
alkeryn[m]there are married couples that banged for decades whilst not transmitting it to their partners01:48
dTalwell now hang on I'm not all fire and brimstone am I?01:48
alkeryn[m]and even, the causation of aids by hiv can be discussed, we aren't even sure if HIV is a cause or a symptom of aids01:48
alkeryn[m]yes people that have aids do often have hiv (although you can have aids without hiv) but all that have hiv don't have aids01:48
alkeryn[m]it could just be a side effect01:49
LjLdTal, i'm just saying that your channel's style is much more oriented towards "back it up with sources right now or fuck off"01:49
himesamayou made apositive claim, "16:46 <alkeryn[m]> and in all recorded history, asymptomatic people have never been the carrier of a disease"01:49
alkeryn[m]and like pm every virus it hasn't really been isolated either01:49
alkeryn[m]<de-facto "if SARS-CoV-2 would not cause he"> wrong, there would be many scenarios in which we would, some being a political agenda.01:49
himesamaok, back up the parenthetical claim.  this is not mainstream science.  16:48 <alkeryn[m]> yes people that have aids do often have hiv (although you can have aids without hiv) but all that have hiv don't have aids01:49
alkeryn[m]and i didn't say that it doesn't cause health problems anywya01:49
alkeryn[m]but that the reaction is being over dramatic01:50
alkeryn[m]vaccination passports ? really ? for something that is barely worse than a flu ?01:50
dTalLjL: hmmm, that's not exactly the tone I'm shooting for... sources required for blanket assertions only01:50
alkeryn[m]<himesama "ok, back up the parenthetical cl"> that's simply a well known fact, people can have AIDS which mean (Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) without having hiv, hiv isn't the only way to be imunodeficient01:51
LjLdTal, well, in this case alkeryn[m] is pointing out for many/most(?) of their assertions that they're anecdotic, or lack enough data yet but we also lack them the other way, or that objections are "fair enough", and so on, but that's all while deflecting a bit and, in my impression, keeping on with a script i've been before (PCR bad; vaccine potentially harmful; may cause ADE; ...)01:51
BrainstormNew from BBC Health: Covid unlocking a ‘perfect storm’ for pregnant women: Doctors and midwives warn Covid poses a greater risk to women in the later stages of pregnancy. → https://is.gd/ss1w7501:51
himesamathis is not a case of one or two dodgy claims; somebody might not have data at ready to back it up because they did not expect any pushback or for whatever other reason.  this is a case of a whole lot of claims that doe not seem to be mainsttream (non-tendentious/corrupt) science.01:52
de-factoalkeryn[m], well in this case the COVID cases with severe progressions and fatalities are the reason we must avoid infection with SARS-CoV-2, and a very large part of those happen by asymptomatic carriers, i made that point because you implied that only disease matters, but i disagree, potential disease by infections matter, hence carriers of the virus with the ability to cause such infections and outcomes01:52
alkeryn[m]<LjL "dTal, well, in this case alkeryn"> yes, i agree that we lack them both ways01:52
himesamaaids is a specific disease.  it is not a blanket term describing all immunodeficiency.  16:51 <alkeryn[m]> <himesama "ok, back up the parenthetical cl"> that's simply a well known fact, people can have AIDS which mean (Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) without having hiv, hiv isn't the only way to be imunodeficient01:52
himesamaaquired*01:52
alkeryn[m]yep aquired01:53
LjLalkeryn[m], that wasn't my claim, though, i was just saying that's a thing of the kind you say. although in some cases i would also agree.01:53
de-factoexample: asymptomatic healthcare workers infect a lot of people in elderly homes, many end up in hospital01:53
alkeryn[m]but you can have it without hiv01:53
himesamaback that up01:53
himesamathere are too many claims having been made that are ... bold01:53
LjLi think AIDS not being caused by HIV is *really* fringe and i'm not comfortable with having that discussion here. which kind of makes me uncomfortable with other things as well :\01:53
LjLhimesama, agreed01:54
himesamadisparate claims --- not closely related to one another, which makes it more suspect01:54
alkeryn[m]well, you have aquired imunodeficiencies with no hiv, there are many ways to become imunodeficient01:54
alkeryn[m]so that's not such a bold claiml01:54
alkeryn[m] * so that's not such a bold claim01:54
himesamai just debuncked that just now01:54
alkeryn[m]and there are people with hiv that aren't imunodeficient01:54
alkeryn[m]some that got it their whole life01:54
alkeryn[m]and some partners that never got it from their other partner in decades of fucking01:54
himesamayou are repeating soemthing that has been debunked01:54
alkeryn[m]how so ?01:55
Raf[m]You sound like a conspiracist. Also this is a covid channel01:55
himesama16:52 <himesama> aids is a specific disease.  it is not a blanket term describing all immunodeficiency.  16:51 <alkeryn[m]> <himesama "ok, back up the parenthetical cl"> that's simply a well known fact, people can have AIDS which mean (Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) without having hiv, hiv isn't the only way to be imunodeficient01:55
himesamaand then i added a word01:55
Raf[m]If you're going to make bold claims you need sources01:55
alkeryn[m]yea but a source for what ?01:55
alkeryn[m]there were many claims, idk what you are asking for01:55
LjLthat's part of the problem.01:56
himesamai am getting exastperated01:56
alkeryn[m]and if we had to source any single claim we simply couldn't talk especially when some are really easy to find.01:56
LjLif they're so easy to find, and yet most of the people who you're talking to here think they're pretty fringe and not accepted by science, then find them for us and change our minds01:56
LjLenough "fair enough"s for tonight01:57
Raf[m](1) Aids without HIV, and the (2) transmissibility of HIV. Though I'm not overly interested in either, honestly and I think I speak for most of the channel since it's a covid channel01:57
joerg>><LjL> that's part of the problem.<< was about to say exactly same01:57
LjLalso, i guess everyone here has their own pet peeves, but while i said nothing when i saw this, i'll bring it up now:01:57
alkeryn[m]"non hiv aids" is a well known term01:57
alkeryn[m]although it is a fast minority of aids01:57
alkeryn[m]<Raf[m] "(1) Aids without HIV, and the (2"> ok then wait a sec01:58
himesamait is a term that does not denote the disease called aids01:58
himesamaor when it does it is fringe01:58
LjL<alkeryn[m]> if they don't wanna get infected, don't get close to me, or stay at home, besides, the vaccine don't prevent transmission.   ←   this is *really* a line of thinking i don't want to see, it goes past a red line here, which is why i posted https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/blob/master/COVID-19-chat.md which i'm not sure got noticed01:58
alkeryn[m]ok then01:59
himesamanow, i am not saying all fringe theories are wrong, but aids gets significantly more funding than all other diseases at nih and ahs been well studied and gets a lot of attention and there are not currently huge forces trying to make it seem what it is not.  just fringe.01:59
LjLyou are free to believe that it's the onus of other people to avoid getting infected, and you have no moral duty to avoid infecting them, but this is not a place where we're okay with that thinking01:59
himesamaTHANK YOU01:59
LjLalkeryn[m], when i google "non-HIV AIDS" i mainly find things from before 2000, particularly 1995-1996. is there ample literature on the subject, including recent literature, or is it just something a small number of researchers believed to be an entity for some years?02:01
alkeryn[m]yea the only ones are a bit old indeed02:02
himesamait is a term that has been applied to more than one thing but it is more like the latter and it is trotted out by hiv/aids denialists to support their claims and it gets confusing until you follow the line of argument all the way down and you end up with some fallacy like the one above about saying it is immundeficiency without hiv which is not the same thign as the disease called aids and then you feel disgusted fo02:02
himesamar wasting your time02:02
LjLscholar.google.com overwhelmingly finds the related but really quite different term "non-HIV/AIDS" which refers to people who are immunodepressed despite not having HID *nor* AIDS02:02
alkeryn[m]aids is aquired imunodeffiency, and surely hiv isn't the only way to get there02:03
alkeryn[m]even though it is the vast majority02:03
himesamathere are e.g. pidd, primary immunodeficiency diseases.  they are not the same disease.02:03
himesamano, aids is not IDENTIFIED with ac. immun.  it is AN EXAMPLE OF ac. immun.  there is a difference.02:04
himesamayou cannot support your claim02:04
LjLalkeryn[m], okay, so you're doing the thing again. you say «"non hiv aids" is a well known term», which in the context of the discussion, kind of carries the implication that it's an acknowledged phenomenon, not very controversial, used in academic research. but then you agree "yeah the only ones are a bit old indeed", which is an understament, from what i see, of the fact that they were just a few fringe studies in the mid-90s.02:04
himesamathis should not be an argument ata ll.  it's pellucid.02:04
LjLi need to let you know that you can't get away with dubious rhetoric just because every time it's challenged, you water it down a bit02:05
himesama(i wonder if the hiv denialism movement was initially spurred on by insurance companies when they were on the hook but then they stopped but the movement continued)02:07
himesamadid this make sense to you?  17:04 <himesama> no, aids is not IDENTIFIED with ac. immun.  it is AN EXAMPLE OF ac. immun. there is a difference.02:07
himesama(i acknowledge that this is a covid channel, but by taking one clear bold claim and getting it solidly backed up or debunked will be imo helpful in resolving the entire long discussion)02:09
alkeryn[m]yea turns out the only "non hiv aids" thing is old data, although it hasn't really been refuted02:10
alkeryn[m]though it being old doesn't change much, still, not much of a big argument if there is virtually nothing recent.02:11
himesamathere are many diseases that are probably acquired, and are very aids-like, and do not have hiv tehre at all.  there is no argumet about that.  the argument is about whether aids can exist without hiv.  and i say it cannot, and kary mullis can say whatever he wants.  he's fringe.  but thank you for pcr, kary.02:12
alkeryn[m]although, you can find shit if you go look outside of peer reviewed stuff, i'm just gonna ignore it has close to no validity.02:13
alkeryn[m]<himesama "there are many diseases that are"> haha yea i guess, i mean pcr is indeed a neat tool in bioengineering02:13
alkeryn[m] * although, you can find shit if you go look outside of peer reviewed stuff, i'm just gonna ignore it as it has close to no validity.02:14
joergdid even the bots get fed up by this?02:20
joergoh nm, [15 Jul 2021 01:41:12] <Brainstorm>02:21
BrainstormNew from BMJ: Covid 19: People with learning disabilities are highly vulnerable: The covid-19 pandemic has had a devastating effect on people with learning disabilities across the world. The linked paper by the OpenSAFELY collaborative led by Williamson and colleagues... → https://is.gd/YnxArK02:23
joerghow do you like my first-ever-in-a-lifetime meme? https://imgflip.com/i/5ggk9a  :-D02:23
himesamai understood the words ein and ist02:24
FSRgoesbrr[m]joerg: dont speak bavarian02:24
FSRgoesbrr[m]me too :D02:24
joerghehe02:24
joerg"...since a few days however, there is a slight increase..."02:25
joergquote of the talkinghead in this TV news the chart is a screenshot from02:25
LjL%w Anstieg02:26
BrainstormLjL, Anstieg  — noun: 1. increase, rise, surge, 2. ascent, 3. (mathematics) slope → https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Anstieg02:26
LjLactually i should have guessed that02:26
LjL%w steg02:26
BrainstormLjL, steg  — verb: 1. (trans.,&#32;informal) To conceal (data) by means of steganography — noun: 1. (obsolete) A gander → https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/steg02:26
LjLokay, not this02:26
LjLbut still, i should have guessed02:26
joerg%w steigen02:27
Brainstormjoerg, steigen  — verb: 1. (intr.) to ascend, to climb, to rise, 2. (intr.) to rise (in value, of commodities etc.), 3. (intr.) to enter, to step (into a large vehicle), 4. (intr.,&#32;of a horse) to rear up → https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/steigen02:27
joergansteiger, der Anstieg02:27
joergansteigen*02:28
LjLokay02:28
LjLi was only saying that i should have guessed because steg has a similar meaning in a germanic language i know, and i ought to know an02:28
joergit's Stieg, not Steg, irregular verb from steigen02:30
LjL...02:30
LjLhttps://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/steg#Swedish02:30
joergSteg is sort of a bridge02:30
LjLhttps://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/stiga_p%C3%A502:31
joergactually I think solitary "stieg" doesn't exist at all, it's anstieg abstieg,whateverstieg02:33
joergas noun02:33
BrainstormUpdates for Netherlands: +9146 cases (now 1.8 million), +2 deaths (now 17912) since 23 hours ago — France: +32 deaths (now 111514) since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +50 deaths (now 128639) since 23 hours ago02:33
LjLwell, it exists (as steg) in swedish, and that's why i should have guessed Anstieg, but i hope that's clear by now02:33
joerg,tr <de sie stieg die Stiege hinauf, den über den Steg zum Steig02:34
joerg,tr <de sie stieg die Stiege hinauf, dann über den Steg zum Steig02:35
joergguess I'm tired02:37
LjLit's %tr or .tr02:37
joergyeah noticed it, not wearing my glasses - typo02:37
* joerg is idly musing about tomorrow's 100k7d incidences. 7.3? or 7.6? or 8.0?02:43
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Summer setback: COVID deaths and cases rising again globally → https://is.gd/5TUkmT02:54
woodhardigan[m]Seeing this guy here saying he's fit, no comorbidities, that the virus is a just a flu gives me so many flashbacks... I thought the same until I go it and never been the same again. Look over your shoulders people, this is no joke03:10
woodhardigan[m]* Seeing this guy here saying he's fit, no comorbidities, that the virus is  just a flu gives me so many flashbacks... I thought the same until I go it and never been the same again. Look over your shoulders people, this is no joke03:10
woodhardigan[m]* Seeing this guy here saying he's fit, no comorbidities, that the virus is  just a flu gives me so many flashbacks... I thought the same until I got it and never been the same again. Look over your shoulders people, this is no joke03:14
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Spain's top court rules pandemic lockdown unconstitutional → https://is.gd/2Cq7ZV03:14
LjLoh lord03:27
LjLwoodhardigan[m], yeah, i referred to you at some point above. but please can you try to limit edits to one at most, especially if the message is fairly long? on IRC edits look bad, as it just repeats the message every time you edit it (i hope at some point i will be able to disable them on a per-room level)03:28
woodhardigan[m]Sorry mate, typing from an old phone. Was just correcting missing syntax lol03:30
himesamathe article said a state of exception would have been ok03:31
himesamawhatever that is03:31
himesamawoodhardigan[m]: yeah there is a feeling of invulnerability probably03:32
himesamalots of articles on lc but nobody understands the seriousness of it until it happens to them.  and i suspect policy is not even thinking about it more than a mention that gets ignored (i hafve o proof of this but it is consistent).03:33
LjLwoodhardigan[m], i know, i just have to tell Matrix users because, understandably, they don't know03:33
BrainstormUpdates for Vietnam: +2025 cases (now 37434), +6 deaths (now 138) since 20 hours ago — Bhutan: +46 cases (now 2370) since 21 hours ago — Germany: +1612 cases (now 3.8 million) since 15 hours ago03:35
woodhardigan[m]himesama Yup, that feeling got me down the hole. Was insisting on seeing people, lacking a lot in one of the worst countries in the infection rank03:36
pwr22I ended up following the rules not for myself but for fear for my family ☹️03:57
pwr22I still don't really care if I get covid but hope they dont03:57
LjLpwr22, didn't manage to do a second test?03:57
pwr22Na, I'm waiting for another lateral flow test kit to come03:58
pwr22Hopefully it might arrive tomorrow03:59
pwr22*today03:59
BrainstormUpdates for Mauritania: +147 cases (now 22049), +3 deaths (now 499) since 22 hours ago04:00
pwr22I would get a PCR test but can't really spare the time to go have it (nor do i want to go to a place with other people who have covid when I have like no symptoms)04:01
woodhardigan[m]Peter You in the countryside?04:06
de-facto.title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.01.21259833v1 <-- interesting paper about antigenic diversity by vaccine selection pressure04:13
Brainstormde-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: COVID-19 vaccines dampen genomic diversity of SARS-CoV-2: Unvaccinated patients exhibit more antigenic mutational variance | medRxiv04:13
de-facto.title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03291-y04:20
Brainstormde-facto: From www.nature.com: SARS-CoV-2 evolution during treatment of chronic infection | Nature04:20
de-factois this how evasive mutants emerged?04:20
BrainstormUpdates for Togo: +57 cases (now 14377) since 23 hours ago04:37
pwr22woodhardigan: not really04:39
BrainstormNew from Science-Based Medicine: COVID-19 is Deadlier Than the Flu for Children: It is natural the for people to compare COVID-19 to other contagious diseases, namely influenza.  Journalists, politicians, and some doctors often compare the two diseases, particularly in children.  Most who make this comparison claim the impact of the diseases is [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/on8b7605:20
BrainstormUpdates for Mexico: +12116 cases (now 2.6 million), +230 deaths (now 235507) since 23 hours ago — British Virgin Islands: +273 cases (now 1559) since a day ago — India: +23107 cases (now 31.0 million), +350 deaths (now 411560) since 19 hours ago — Netherlands: +9797 cases (now 1.8 million) since 23 hours ago05:40
BrainstormNew from EurekAlert!: Heart problems resolve in majority of kids with COVID inflammatory syndrome: Most of the heart and immunologic problems seen in children with multisystem inflammatory syndrome (MIS-C)--a condition linked to COVID--were gone within a few months, Columbia researchers have found. → https://is.gd/R08EbH06:22
BrainstormUpdates for Pakistan: +2545 cases (now 981392), +47 deaths (now 22689) since 23 hours ago — Panama: +1517 cases (now 418604), +7 deaths (now 6661) since a day ago06:29
BrainstormNew from EurekAlert!: Pandemic layoffs pushed hospitality workers to leave industry: The psychological toll of losing a job due to COVID-19 caused many young hotel and restaurant workers to consider changing careers, according to a new study. Laid-off and fully furloughed hospitality employees reported being financially strained, depressed, socially [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/IiFjro06:43
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: HMS Queen Elizabeth: Covid outbreak on Navy flagship - All Onboard Were Vaccinated → https://is.gd/ZpUffN07:15
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express (Health): Health: Prolonged use of steroids causes bone tissue death in post-Covid patients, warn doctors → https://is.gd/x4gpTB07:26
BrainstormUpdates for England, United Kingdom: +37341 cases (now 4.6 million), +36 deaths (now 113018) since a day ago — Mexico City, Mexico: +4082 cases (now 717991), +32 deaths (now 35024) since a day ago — Noord-Holland, Netherlands: +2636 cases (now 295848), +1 deaths (now 2630) since a day ago — Arizona, United States: +1945 cases (now 903851), +21 deaths (now 18076) since a day ago07:32
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Trillions of dollars spent on Covid recovery in ways that harm environment → https://is.gd/7Ik7Uu07:46
BrainstormNew from BMJ: Winter pressure: RSV, flu, and covid-19 could push NHS to breaking point, report warns: Outbreaks of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) this coming autumn and flu in the winter could be around twice the magnitude of a normal year and may overlap with another peak in covid-19 infections,... → https://is.gd/NZUn7z08:17
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: ‘No vaccine for racism’: Asian New Yorkers still live in fear of attacks → https://is.gd/9iA0qx08:28
BrainstormUpdates for India: +54712 cases (now 31.0 million), +595 deaths (now 411805) since 22 hours ago08:34
BrainstormNew from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | July 15, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://is.gd/HWGfyk09:09
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Australia’s Victoria state to go into five-day COVID-19 lockdown → https://is.gd/Z1NplG09:40
BrainstormUpdates for Armenia: +193 cases (now 226949), +4 deaths (now 4556) since 23 hours ago10:01
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Chinese cities to ban unvaccinated from public spaces → https://is.gd/KkaqWw10:01
BrainstormUpdates for Manipur, India: +1104 cases (now 80521), +17 deaths (now 1326) since a day ago — Laos: +116 cases (now 3092), +1 deaths (now 4) since a day ago10:38
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Convocazione del Consiglio dei Ministri n. 29 ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/convocazione-del-consiglio-dei-ministri-n-29/17465 )10:40
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Consiglio dei Ministri n. 29 ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/consiglio-dei-ministri-n-29/17467 )10:40
BrainstormNew from Politico: Coronavirus: A thousand people infected with coronavirus at Dutch outdoor festival → https://is.gd/r7Blvg11:57
BrainstormUpdates for Germany: +1624 cases (now 3.8 million) since 22 hours ago12:05
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_ITALIA: Covid, in Olanda quasi 1000 contagi dopo un festival. Gli organizzatori: «Siamo scioccati» → https://is.gd/Flw9Dy12:07
BrainstormNew from Reddit (test): CoronavirusEU: Rising Case Numbers in Europe Due to Delta, Mostly Young People Affected → https://is.gd/xkUOng12:17
SpearRavenone dose not very effective against Delta .. two needed12:25
SpearRavenvaccine12:25
BrainstormNew from BMJ: Caution, vaccines, testing: the only way forward: The world was already deeply divided before the pandemic, but covid has cruelly deepened the divisions (doi:10.1136/bmj.n1783).1 From the start it was clear that people in deprived or ethnic minority... → https://is.gd/jTJncl12:28
SpearRavenstart getting your shots so you have the required two asap. Take Vitamin D supplements. Request Ivermectin if infected and hospitalised12:28
BrainstormUpdates for Indonesia: +56757 cases (now 2.7 million), +982 deaths (now 70192) since 22 hours ago — Malaysia: +13215 cases (now 880782), +110 deaths (now 6613) since 22 hours ago — Fiji: +1220 cases (now 13886), +5 deaths (now 74) since 10 hours ago12:30
BrainstormNew from Scientific American: There Are Few Good COVID Antivirals, but That Could Be Changing: Developing pills that block the novel coronavirus has been challenging. A new Biden administration program aims to boost the effort -- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com → https://is.gd/GLSyFb12:49
BrainstormNew from Retraction Watch: Paper from company claiming phototherapy could treat COVID-19 is retracted: A study that touted phototherapy as a way to combat the COVID-19 pandemic has been retracted after Elisabeth Bik noted a litany of concerns about the article, from duplications in the figures to the authors’ failure to disclose conflicts of [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/QFMf0m13:00
BrainstormUpdates for British Virgin Islands: +2 deaths (now 6) since 7 hours ago13:07
joerg8.0 :-/13:10
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: UK gets Malta to permit India-made Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine travellers → https://is.gd/QVxmJb13:10
joerg(D) on the bright side, R_t increase actually seems to come to a halt, around 1.2 ~ 1.313:15
pwr22LjL: got my new lateral flow tests so waiting for a result now13:29
BrainstormNew from Francois Balloux: @NAChristakis: RT by @BallouxFrancois: In 1347, Jews were blamed for bubonic plague. In the 1990s, gays were blamed for HIV. In 2020, immigrants are blamed for COVID. The weak-minded desire to blame “outsiders” for epidemics goes back millennia, as discussed in #ApollosArrow.And so this man should be deeply ashamed. → https://is.gd/1DFrSy13:31
BrainstormUpdates for Iran: +23655 cases (now 3.5 million), +201 deaths (now 86592) since a day ago13:32
joerghimesama: >>state of exception<< sounds like a probably poor verbatim translation of "Ausnahmezustand" (state of emergency; public emergency)13:33
joergsorry for 10h late13:34
joerg>>[15 Jul 2021 02:43:06] * joerg is idly musing about tomorrow's 100k7d incidences. 7.3? or 7.6? or 8.0?<<  8.0 it is :-(13:35
BrainstormNew from ECDC: Data on testing for COVID-19 by week and country: The downloadable data file contains information about testing volume for COVID-19 by week and country. Each row contains the corresponding data for a country and a week. The file is updated weekly. You may use the data in line with ECDC’s copyright policy. → https://is.gd/1QzArh13:53
joergfactor 2.3 in 7 days, so next Thursday (8->) 18?13:54
BrainstormUpdates for Malta: +222 cases (now 31834) since a day ago — Nepal: +1782 cases (now 662570), +33 deaths (now 9463) since 23 hours ago14:09
de-factojoerg, Rt~1.3 would be my expectation value for Germany as that is what fitting pure delta value sequences showed for me14:25
joergyeah, 1.3 seems most "CI"14:26
de-factodid not made the fit for latest RKI data yet though14:27
joergthis may go up further if they don't stop and revert this damn "end all NPI" competition14:28
de-factojoerg, did you know they provide it as xslx now?14:29
de-factohttps://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Virusvariante.html14:29
de-facto.title14:29
Brainstormde-facto: From www.rki.de: RKI - Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 - Übersicht zu besorgniserregenden SARS-CoV-2-Virusvarianten (VOC)14:29
de-factohttps://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/VOC_VOI_Tabelle.xlsx?__blob=publicationFile14:29
pwr22LjL: my test is still negative14:30
joerghttps://i.imgur.com/sfpHroZ.png is misleading, my stat doesn't keep historical data for the "7tage-inzindenz", e.g. for 2021-07-04 we had 4.9 not 5.2, yesterday 7.1 not 7.7. My stat shows the values corrected by late reports14:31
joergde-facto: great! many thanks!14:33
BrainstormUpdates for Switzerland: +1 deaths (now 10902) since 22 hours ago14:34
joergalso thanks for the "original" yesterday [14 Jul 2021 19:28:19] <de-facto> .title https://imgur.com/a/yCW271q https://i.imgur.com/xuhWbpn.png "COVID Germany: SARS-CoV-2-VoCs Evolution" src: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/DESH/Bericht_VOC_2021-07-14.pdf?__blob=publicationFile14:39
de-factoyes thats from the usual Wednesday VoC report of RKI14:40
de-factoactually they rock, they do very good work14:40
joerg:nod:14:40
de-factoa bit more than half a year ago we did not have a sequencing surveillance network at all, now they sample more than 10% of positive tests in a representative way14:43
de-factooh wow even more almost 27% the previous week14:44
de-factoimpressive14:45
BrainstormNew from ECDC: Data on hospital and ICU admission rates and current occupancy for COVID-19: The downloadable data files contain information about hospitalisation and Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission rates and current occupancy for COVID-19 by date and country. Each row contains the corresponding data for a certain date (day or week) and per country. [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/PGEWAF15:07
BrainstormNew from ECDC: Data on 14-day notification rate of new COVID-19 cases and deaths: These files contain data on the 14-day notification rate of newly reported COVID-19 cases per 100 000 population and 14-day notification rate of reported deaths per million population by week and country, in EU/EEA and the UK. Each row contains the corresponding data for [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/cALMTg15:18
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Lancet study says long Covid has more than 200 symptoms → https://is.gd/Lm91Mz15:28
BrainstormUpdates for Bangladesh: +20158 cases (now 1.1 million), +436 deaths (now 17278) since 22 hours ago — Gibraltar: +32 cases (now 4518) since a day ago — Germany: +1428 cases (now 3.8 million) since 22 hours ago15:36
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Germany calls on China to allow further investigations into COVID origins → https://is.gd/hRIH3j16:12
BrainstormNew from r/WorldNews: worldnews: mass protests erupt in Greece after government bans unvaccinated from indoor public spaces & allows teens to receive jab → https://is.gd/KpSNLE16:33
BrainstormNew from Scientific American: Kids Get 'Long COVID' Too: Some children who have recovered from COVID have lingering symptoms such as headache, fatigue and heart palpitations. → https://is.gd/B3gN4u16:54
BrainstormNew from LitCovid: (news): Informal collectives and access to healthcare during India's COVID-19 second wave crisis. → https://is.gd/c5nYfC17:05
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Study of a Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) Virus-like Particle (VLP) Vaccine → https://is.gd/IrbRAq17:26
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Study to Evaluate the Immunogenicity and Safety of Heterologous SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Schemes → https://is.gd/TyuGCi17:37
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): In This Study AUGM-101 Will be Assessed for Its Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic in Healthy Volunteers and COVID-19-infected Patients → https://is.gd/FwdxzL17:58
BrainstormUpdates for United Kingdom: +69144 cases (now 5.3 million) since 23 hours ago18:06
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Enabling Family Physicians to Reduce Vaccine Hesitancy and Increase Covid-19 Vaccine Uptake → https://is.gd/V5Eliz18:09
BrainstormNew from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Real World Data Observational Study of COVID-19 in a Flyover Region → https://is.gd/d5GHtN18:19
BrainstormUpdates for Morocco: +2571 cases (now 549844), +14 deaths (now 9418) since 20 hours ago18:30
BrainstormNew from CIDRAP: COVID-19 Scan for Jul 15, 2021: Monoclonal antibodies for COVID-19 Learning disabilities and COVID risk → https://is.gd/8pInZe18:40
BrainstormNew from In The Pipeline: A Fifty-Year-Old Cancer Drug Doesn’t Do What You Think: 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) has been around a long time now (over fifty years), and it’s a standard oncology drug (particularly in colorectal treatment regimes). But try going around and asking people how it works. If you’re talking to a clinician and want to seem up on [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/JBMiXe18:51
BrainstormNew from The Indian Express: World: Melbourne to lockdown for five days from Thursday → https://is.gd/wiLHi519:01
BrainstormUpdates for Italy: +2473 cases (now 4.3 million), +9 deaths (now 127840) since a day ago19:08
BrainstormNew from Gazzetta Ufficiale italiana: MINISTERO DELLO SVILUPPO ECONOMICO - DECRETO 17 giugno 2021: Scioglimento della «Syk soc. coop.  in  liquidazione»,  in  Milano  enomina del commissario liquidatore. (21A04186) → https://is.gd/DQkNFS19:22
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Comunicato stampa del Consiglio dei Ministri n. 29 ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/comunicato-stampa-del-consiglio-dei-ministri-n-29/17476 )19:40
BrainstormNew from WebMD: Pre-Pandemic Normalcy Far off for the Immunocompromised: A return to pre-pandemic normalcy for those with weakened immune systems is not as simple as it may be for others. → https://is.gd/Vr4enY19:54
BrainstormNew from WebMD: Pandemic Olympics: Health Experts Worry COVID May Win Gold: These Olympics, already postponed from 2020, will be about the fight against coronavirus as much as it will be about the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat. → https://is.gd/sDVixU20:05
de-facto.title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(21)00299-6/fulltext preprint: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.24.20248802v320:10
Brainstormde-facto: From www.thelancet.com: Characterizing long COVID in an international cohort: 7 months of symptoms and their impact - EClinicalMedicine20:10
de-facto.title https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/indonesia/ <-- this is not looking good at all :/20:30
de-factodaily 900 deaths20:31
de-factoi really do hope they somehow can regain control and wrestle it down, kill it off20:31
BrainstormUpdates for Spain: +18439 cases (now 4.1 million) since a day ago20:35
de-factohmm dangint Spain also spiking20:36
binwow this is very telling https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/british-scientist-from-who-team-in-chinas-wuhan-recused-from-un-backed-commission-on-covid-19-origins/articleshow/83799324.cms20:42
BrainstormNew from WebMD: Heart Troubles Ease Over Time in Kids With MIS-C: A new study finds most heart problems in children with a rare inflammatory condition triggered by COVID-19 infection resolve within a few months. → https://is.gd/y1Sdkq20:47
BrainstormUpdates for Curacao: +84 cases (now 12537) since 21 hours ago21:00
BrainstormNew from WebMD: (news): Half of U.S. Teens Plan to Get COVID Shot -- Can Numbers Go Higher? → https://is.gd/0pv1SI21:08
boganhttps://twitter.com/ahandvanish/status/141531820490217062921:12
boganmaybe those get some attention now finally. among other than neurologists too21:15
boganhttps://twitter.com/scottishwormboy/status/141195228713261875221:15
boganbrits will understand the humor behind this: https://twitter.com/fitterhappierAJ/status/141393179726460108821:19
boganhttps://twitter.com/itosettiMD_MBA/status/141392241555029196821:20
bogan.title https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20210712-follow-live-france-s-macron-addresses-the-nation-as-covid-19-delta-variant-surges21:22
Brainstormbogan: From www.france24.com: Mandatory vaccination, Covid-19 pass and access to PCR tests: the main points from Macron's address21:22
boganPfizer and BioNTech announced on Thursday that they were developing a version of the coronavirus vaccine that targets Delta, a highly contagious variant that has spread to nearly 100 countries. The companies expect to begin clinical trials of the vaccine in August21:28
boganweek old info, but i had missed that, and wondered if they havent said anything about it yet21:29
de-facto.title https://investors.biontech.de/news-releases/news-release-details/pfizer-and-biontech-provide-update-booster-program-light-delta21:32
Brainstormde-facto: From investors.biontech.de: Pfizer and BioNTech Provide Update on Booster Program in Light of the Delta-Variant | BioNTech21:32
de-facto"While Pfizer and BioNTech believe a third dose of BNT162b2 has the potential to preserve the highest levels of protective efficacy against all currently tested variants including Delta, the companies are remaining vigilant and are developing an updated version of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine that targets the full spike protein of the Delta variant."21:33
de-facto"The first batch of the mRNA for the trial has already been manufactured at BioNTech’s facility in Mainz, Germany. The Companies anticipate the clinical studies to begin in August, subject to regulatory approvals."21:33
BrainstormUpdates for Malawi: +785 cases (now 41498), +25 deaths (now 1301) since a day ago — Canada: +13 deaths (now 26470) since 21 hours ago21:37
ArsaneritBNT162b2 = Comirnaty ?21:44
ArsaneritAren't vaccines that target variants inevitably too slow to arrive?21:44
generaso, BNT162b3 ))21:46
bogani think they had b1-b4, and b2 was selected21:46
de-factoyeah nixonix, they made several versions form wuhan spike21:47
bogani was hoping they would select the self-amplifying one. just because it was different21:47
boganbut instead they selected the best one, i suppose... (benefit/harm)21:48
de-factoself amplifying?21:48
boganyeah i think pfizers one candidate was that type. not sure of details, but possibly producing additional protein boosting the synthesis or something21:48
boganhttps://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/141279838872320000321:49
boganthey had couple months delay - because its not usually the first generation of new wave that goes to hospital or dies. but notice the percentages21:49
boganthere was some other log scale graph, if i can find it21:50
bogan(gotta love that bbc guys question)21:50
Arsaneritwhat was the question?21:51
de-factoi think we need surveillance of IFR over time to estimate current vaccine protection against severe progressions21:54
de-factofor breakthrough cases that is21:54
boganhttps://twitter.com/MiddxMinxx/status/141526584819810713821:54
bogan"is this good, bad, or somewhere in between?"21:55
de-factooooff21:55
bogangoing through some breakthrough papers in a few days, i collected a bunch21:56
de-factoi mean we should know how good current variants evolved in breaking through vaccine protection21:57
boganfriendly arch-physicist keeps translating ilkka's tweets to you foreigners: https://twitter.com/zin_zah/status/141522474111220532321:58
de-factodependent on age, time since vaccination, type of vaccination, type of s-protein signature in vaccination21:58
de-factobtw vaccine immunity is different from recovery immunity21:58
de-facto.title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.01.21259833v121:59
Brainstormde-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: COVID-19 vaccines dampen genomic diversity of SARS-CoV-2: Unvaccinated patients exhibit more antigenic mutational variance | medRxiv21:59
boganyeah, theres couple papers saying that. no more breakthrough mutations induced by vaccines. so it looks like its mostly just the number of infections in the world21:59
boganalthough theres still chance that long intervals might induce them - partly vaccinated22:00
de-factoi suspect that treatment with convalescent plasma and monoclonal antibodies may have given rise to some of the fitness variants22:00
de-factoi would like to know if there is a map or list for how common that type of treatment is worldwide22:01
boganmoabs are expensive, like 500-2000 a pop22:01
boganconvalescent, found not beneficial for awhile ago22:02
de-factobecasue those antibodies are "static" there is no feedback loop, updating for new emerging mutants in the host, just that one type of monoclonal antibody or convalescent plasma, it will not react to any antigenic drift (as a "live" immune system would do)22:02
boganbut might be because some of them have anti-interferon antibodies, so filtering them out, it might still be beneficial possibly22:02
boganmeaning, not using from patients that have them, not actually filtering them out of plasma...22:03
de-factosuch treatments were shown to induce a lot of antigenic drift in cell cultures22:03
de-factoe.g. take some cells, infect them with SARS-CoV-2, put a non-neutralizing amount of convalescent plasma on it, it will induce a lot of selection on the mutations, hence the observed antigentic drift for successful mutations will increase22:05
de-factoi heard there are speculations that this might have been how the Kent variant emerged22:05
ArsaneritWhat's the Kent variant?  Alpha / B.1.1.7?22:06
nixonixthere was some new variant in uk, that has got some interest. not labelled as VOI yet tho22:06
nixonix.title https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/new-covid-19-variant-may-have-emerged-in-north-east-surge-109442022:07
Brainstormnixonix: From inews.co.uk: New Covid-19 variant 'may have emerged in North-East surge'22:07
nixonixthe second one of those. the first one isnt new22:07
de-factoArsanerit, yes22:08
nixonixthe second should be 617.2 with one substitution missing22:08
de-factonixonix, i also still wonder how that gigantic surge in Netherlands could have happened, i hope they do sequence those22:08
nixonixsome superspreading with indian variant. but usually those sharp spikes are, that they had missed the beginning of the surge due to lack of testing22:10
IndoAnonnixonix, is that you?22:11
nixonixyeah22:11
IndoAnonDamn, It has been long time22:12
nixonixyeah, i checked couple other networks in between, but got bored to them too22:12
de-facto.title https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001358/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_18.pdf "two new variants in monitoring have been designated (B.1.619 and B.1.629, Table 1)"22:15
Brainstormde-facto: From assets.publishing.service.gov.uk: SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation (Public Health England)22:15
IndoAnontoo bad22:15
nixonixhttps://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/141570864598009037322:15
nixonixif i got right information, this is the mutation 629 misses, compared to 617.2:22:16
nixonix.title https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.17.448820v122:16
Brainstormnixonix: From www.biorxiv.org: SARS-CoV-2 spike P681R mutation enhances and accelerates viral fusion | bioRxiv22:16
nixonixso is that good, bad, or something inbetween?22:17
Arsanerithow can schools continue after summer?22:17
de-factoonly if spiking is prevented by R<122:17
IndoAnonArsanerit: I'm not optimistic about that22:18
nixonixvaccines progressing in indonesia?22:19
nixonixand no new eruptions?22:19
nixonix(which are awesome, though)22:19
IndoAnonnixonix: well22:21
nixonixbtw, how many politicians or health chiefs have recently said "we need to learn to live with this"? stuff like that they are currently saying in finland22:21
nixonixwas the first that dutch pm in the fall?22:21
nixonixwhich didnt go well...22:21
IndoAnonThere's various version, ranging from boris, to bolsonaro22:22
IndoAnonOh wait, they're more or less the same22:22
nixonixhttps://twitter.com/DrZoeHyde/status/141536744674407629022:24
ArsaneritThe Dutch PM said that during the first wave I think22:25
Arsanerit"we will achieve herd immunity soon" or so22:25
IndoAnonBut, I deeply believe that politicians knew what happened when the first generation vaccine unable to provide adequate protection against infection22:25
nixonixwasnt it, that indian variant wasnt going to be worse for those already in hospital (although around 2x more likely to get you in hospital)? if that table is true, ICU factor is higher than hospitalization22:25
IndoAnon*what will happen22:26
nixonixhavent checked the latest uk data, maybe she has more recent information22:26
IndoAnonindian variant is more contagious, higher lethality & chance of needing hospitalization and pre-symptomatic period, i think22:27
nixonix"The study reveals that two doses of Sinovac, plus a booster dose of AstraZeneca, can prevent the Delta infection better than two doses of Sinovac, but still less than two doses of AstraZeneca, the doctor said.22:27
nixonix.title https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thai-study-finds-2-doses-of-sinovac-cant-beat-delta-variant-astrazeneca-can/22:28
Brainstormnixonix: From www.thaipbsworld.com: Thai study finds 2 doses of Sinovac can't beat Delta variant, AstraZeneca can | Thai PBS World : The latest Thai news in English, News Headlines, World News and News Broadcasts in both Thai and [...]22:28
nixonixit seems those weaker vaccines generally have more trouble with immune evasion variants22:29
nixonixlike also az compared to pfizer or moderna22:29
IndoAnonPersonally, i think we should not continue the vaccination effort with 1st gen vaccine22:29
nixonixpfizer and moderna still look good, at least against 617.2. SA and brazilian variants arent around much, information against them isnt that accurate22:30
IndoAnonThose resource better pooled to combat current waves... And in EU area, I think there's chance of giga-wave where it started from autumn to mid-winter22:32
IndoAnon*a chance22:33
nixonixthere are couple of new papers, krammer refered to them in this, about how neutralising and even binding antibodies supposedly correlate pretty well with protectivity22:36
nixonix.title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01432-422:36
Brainstormnixonix: From www.nature.com: A correlate of protection for SARS-CoV-2 vaccines is urgently needed | Nature Medicine22:36
nixonix.title https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2021/06/a-half-dose-of-moderna-is-more-effective-than-a-full-dose-of-astrazeneca.html22:37
Brainstormnixonix: From marginalrevolution.com: A Half Dose of Moderna is More Effective Than a Full Dose of AstraZeneca - Marginal REVOLUTION22:37
nixonixwhich made me think again, why not 3-4 microdoses to old or fragile, who coulndt perhaps stand side effects of normal doses?22:37
Arsaneritpeople with more training and more access to research material have probably researched that question22:38
nixonixmaybe, but those fractional doses are very recent study22:39
BrainstormUpdates for Algeria: +1109 cases (now 149906), +13 deaths (now 3895) since a day ago22:39
nixonixas is the effect of the third normal dose (according to pfizer it gives 5-10x stronger ab response than the 2nd)22:39
IndoAnonIt's rather a mystery. Who could've done that? Well, someone should had discovered that during phase 3. Instead, we hear frightening news like "Dozens of old people died on nursing home after taking vaccine"22:39
nixonixalso, someone claimed his doctor thought, those with strong side effects from vaccine would probably have got severe symptoms from sars2 infection too22:40
nixonixwhile i think its possible, that those that got strong side effects from the first dose, but not from second, might have previous exposure to the virus. asymptomatic infection or perhaps kinda almost infection, with possibly no ab response22:42
BrainstormNew from CIDRAP: Reports confirm pandemic-related drop in basic childhood vaccination: Lisa Schnirring | News Editor | CIDRAP News Jul 15, 2021 An estimated 23 million kids missed their basic vaccines in 2020. → https://is.gd/doYDVJ22:43
himesamai like this idea --- o13:37 <nixonix> which made me think again, why not 3-4 microdoses to old or fragile, who coulndt perhaps stand side effects of normal doses?22:43
nixonixyeah vaccine companies might have a good idea of titers with smaller dosages, but they cant recommend them because theyve been approved only with the doses that are in use22:43
IndoAnonTrue, the stats of unvaccinated/vaccinated getting infected with varying degree of severity and several outcome could become biased, as most of vaccinated people who're experiencing strong side effects haven't recovered nor willing enough to go outside after experiencing the full on effect of spike protein therapy22:44
nixonixthey also were against those long intervals, like 12 weeks. at least their official stand22:44
LjLhi hello i've been busy who should i scream at today22:46
IndoAnon12 weeks is the time time frame, where booster shot might be needed22:46
de-factobtw if there is a certain threshold for successful priming for the amount of antigen, it certainly is much lower for booster or update shots, hence vaccinations probably could be multiplied by lowering the dose of boosting/updating22:46
de-factoyet we need studies for that22:46
IndoAnonUgh22:47
de-factobut the immune system probably only needs much less triggering for booster or update to achieve more or less the same effect as with higher doses, just because its already "on the hunt" for the antigen, hence only needs small provocation to react22:47
nixonixravi gupta is worried about ade-like effect when reinfected with different variant: https://twitter.com/GuptaR_lab/status/141412257667108454722:48
* IndoAnon trying to quote someone else22:48
de-factoEvening LjL hope you and your family are fine there22:49
nixonixthere are couple of very small studies with mortality a bit over 3%, but they are very small22:49
IndoAnon>>330070452 >Why does /cvg/ think they know better than thousands of experienced immunologists with decades of experience >How do you guys cope with this? 99% of immunologists agree on the vaccine. They can't all be payed off or working for pharmaceutical companies.22:49
LjLde-facto, a bit better than yesterday, it seems, but still not so great, what the ENT doctor did yesterday really made it worse for several hours... also ironically i'm dizzy myself today, i saw the table spinning for a moment while getting something from it22:50
LjLright now my head feels confused, tinnitusy, and dizzy22:50
nixonixindo, youve seen discussion around that canadian veterinarian viral immunologist, byram bridle?22:51
de-factoglad to hear she feels a bit better today22:51
nixonixwhy those scientist antivaxers always seem to be vetrinarians...22:51
* IndoAnon thinking said poster is foolish, as he thought both nixonix and de-facto make a good point about micro-dosing vaccine, just like eating supplements with short half life many times a day22:52
LjLsometimes when i read some things here i'm still kinda curious to look up what that weird "paper" against the vaccine as a way to end COVID was. it said things that were way over my head, but maybe food for thoughts for others, even if wrong22:52
de-factoLjL, yeah i have that too, i think its kinda normal to some degree, temporary dizzyness etc often reported, afaik going away after some time22:52
nixonixand those that want to just reopen fast, either veterinarians or pediatricians22:53
LjLde-facto, it started for me when i started having tinnitus, became milder over time, but today it's wow. maybe it's because i've been sleeping on the couch to look after my mom, my neck vertebrae aren't *quite* aligned as they should...22:54
IndoAnonnixonix, please wait while I check whether I have read such interview in the past22:54
de-factoLjL, I recognized drinking (water) and moving around is somewhat helpful, sitting around not so much22:55
de-factoidk why22:55
LjLde-facto, do you remember/recognize the document i'm thinking about? a long PDF, i think, with much technical language, and graphs, and stuff, but *very* "non-mainstream", not generally anti-vax, but specifically warning that using a vaccine to end a pandemic would eventually make the virus worse for the younger and generally worse22:55
de-factoyes i know what you are talking about22:56
de-factoit was from that one guy22:56
LjLwell i had a walk before coming back and dining...22:56
LjLde-facto, any clue how to find it again? even a keyword, anything you remember that could help me grep it from the logs?22:56
IndoAnonI see, I think the appropriate context was about using spike protein instead of membrane proteins and (something) to incite immunity, nixonix22:57
de-factoLjL i also think it might be worse after having some activity, such as biking, maybe it has to do with blood circulation while the vaccine is still in the system or such22:57
de-factoi am not worried though, it will go away by itself22:57
nixonixyeah, bridle had several arguments. none of them hold water, though22:58
nixonixand he also has his own vaccine, that he got over 200k...22:58
nixonixwhole virus vaccine, which are more risky than just s-protein. using the same platform than his cancer vaccine (which apparently failed)22:59
IndoAnonBut, hadn't we talked about spike protein being able to cross BBB and do things like MOA-B mimicry and other dysregulation?22:59
IndoAnonWell, that depends on whether the spike protein is able to travel beyond the injection area23:01
LjLde-facto, i do have 110 as pulse while sitting down23:01
nixonixmoa-b?23:01
IndoAnonMy bad, MAO-B23:01
nixonixdid bridle mention something about it? and how that would be harmful?23:03
de-factoLjL, yeah i have that too sometimes23:04
de-factooh i have an idea how to find that23:05
nixonixmao-b seems to induce ROS. but i dont see how part of s-protein possibly mimicing it would be harmful. and if it was, theres not much s-protein in plasma, from mrna vaccines anyway23:06
nixonix.title https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/gwinnett-county/he-wished-he-had-gotten-vaccine-local-man-battling-covid-19-icu-months/O5GSYB4CNVGS5M36L7MXUVGWK4/23:11
Brainstormnixonix: From www.wsbtv.com: ‘He wished he had gotten the vaccine:’ Local man battling COVID-19 from ICU for months – WSB-TV Channel 2 - Atlanta23:11
IndoAnonnixonix, i don't pay attention much to bridle arguments, because he sounds like brands of cheese. However, one of his assumption is that things could move from injection site, and one of it is nanolipid (https://web.archive.org/web/20210403075739/https://www.pmda.go.jp/drugs/2021/P20210212001/672212000_30300AMX00231_I100_1.pdf)23:11
de-factoLjL, do you mean this one here?  https://science.psu.edu/news/some-vaccines-support-evolution-more-virulent-viruses https://science.psu.edu/news/andrew-read-elected-fellow-royal-society https://pastebin.com/eqyYLaBv https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.1002198 (last about Marek's disease)23:12
LjLde-facto, no, it was something recent and written specifically for covid, this is from 201523:13
nixonixi have read that argument many times on finnish forums. people say, those vaccines are experimental, and they let us to be guinea pigs, and consider it themself after a few years23:13
de-factoyeah i remember something about a guy claiming to be an immunologist or such, and having his own theory of all or such23:14
IndoAnonnixonix, it's just 366 days since we discussed https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.16.20128660v223:14
de-factobut how to find that again? hmm23:14
de-factolike a presentaiton with lots of graphs or such, right LjL?23:15
nixonixindo, ive seen that biodistribution study. they didnt measure s-protein, just radio labelled lipids in murines23:15
nixonixactually amounts of s-proteins and s1:s have been measured with very senstitive SIMOA assay, and the amounts have been very small in plasma23:16
de-factobtw above links all are about Mareks disease, not COVID23:16
LjLde-facto, it wasn't a presentation strictly speaking (like not horizontal powerpoint), but similar23:17
IndoAnonAnyway, chat about Spike protein freenode##coronavirus 15 Jul 2020 (365 days 23 hours ago)  https://bpa.st/QGXA23:19
de-factoLjL,  i think i have found it23:22
de-factoGeert Vanden Bossche23:23
LjLname rings a bell23:23
LjLde-facto, yes, i think that's it23:25
LjLi remember the "NONCONFIDENTIAL - DO COPY - DO DISTRIBUTE" watermark :P23:25
de-factoyep23:26
de-factoidk quite crazy guy, interesting, but i would not bet on his theories23:27
LjLde-facto, i'm not in the mood tonight but i want to read it again, i think since last time i looked at it, now i know some more of the terms and things it mentions23:28
LjLlast time i could guess from "contextual clues" that it was pseudoscience, but i also couldn't understand much of it23:29
de-facto"Independent Vaccine Research Consultant" not Immunologist23:32
LjLyeah i see from the logs we did a bit of sleuthing of who he was on linkedin etc23:33
specingLol de-facto23:34
specingthat sounds fake23:34
nixonixyeah, that MAO-B topic felt familiar. so if true, sars2 could possibly affect to cells with mao2. and perhaps vaccines too, but with lesser effect23:35
de-factoto be clear, i am not supporting any of his statements23:35
nixonixmao2=maob23:35
nixonixand what if it did? more ROS, oxidative stress and dna damage. which happens anyway, but then part of it would be because of that mimicry. wouldnt change a thing23:37
IndoAnonnixonix: spike is spike. So, mRNA(spike) vaccine should have less damage than the real virus23:37
nixonixsure, when those spikes that leak in vessels (minimal amounts most of time), are anchored in cell membranes, unlike spikes in virions23:38
nixonixi mean vaccines leak to vessel (and then causing spikes in cells vaccine particles penetrate)23:39
IndoAnonI'm sleepy, but I guess I should tell you that one of the important thing I learned this week was about how the virions exit the cells23:41
nixonixexocytosis?23:44
nixonixi think there are a few different ways23:45
IndoAnonthrough cell's garbage pathway23:47
nixonixthat would be exocytosis then23:47
nixonixdamn i had a study with worrying title, but i find it.. i planned to link it here23:48
nixonixi *cant23:48
nixonixthis got no comments earlier, what do you guys is the reason? https://twitter.com/itosettiMD_MBA/status/141392241555029196823:49
nixonixbtw we were wondering why S1 was found in plasma more than whole S-proteins, after mrna vaccination23:53
nixonixpossibly the reason could be that those cells surfaces proteins are recycled pretty actively, cleavaged by different enzymes23:53
nixonixso they could split those S1 parts loose23:54
nixonixthen why didnt the find S2, those other parts when cytotoxic immune cells have destroyed the cells with those stubs left on surface?23:55
nixonixtheir SIMOA assays didnt recognize them. they only bind to S1 and whole S-proteins, where the regions consisted partly S1 and partly S2 side, was said in the paper23:55
nixonixthe mystery solved, perhaps23:56
de-factonixonix, that was my suspicion back then, something separating S1 from S223:58
nixonixah, i just noticed vanden bossche mentioned above. i read about him a week ago23:58

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