de-facto | a more contagious mutant always got a positive selection | 00:00 |
---|---|---|
de-facto | and most of the infections happen in the early phase, when it replicates in the upper respiratory tract, before people even get symptoms | 00:00 |
de-facto | especially with Delta this seems to happen even more efficiently | 00:00 |
de-facto | viral shedding is much more with it | 00:01 |
alkeryn[m] | yea but what you care about isn't people not having it, you care about people not dying / having symptoms | 00:01 |
alkeryn[m] | so if you only isolated the ones that did have symptoms, the virus would tend to evolve into less symptomatic strains. | 00:01 |
de-facto | nope, because most infections already happened by the time when symptoms occur | 00:02 |
de-facto | its already too late to isolate then | 00:02 |
alkeryn[m] | if you isolate everyone indiscriminately, it just will "try" to become more contagious if not more symptomatic as symptoms are corelated with more higher contagion risks | 00:02 |
de-facto | thats one of the reasons this spreads so efficiently, carriers are not aware that they are highly infecitous | 00:02 |
alkeryn[m] | not really defacto, in virology, most contagions are done by the symptomatics | 00:02 |
alkeryn[m] | asymptomatics have never been the carrier of a pandemic. | 00:03 |
alkeryn[m] | yes they can be contagious | 00:03 |
alkeryn[m] | but they tend to be extremely less than people that are sick | 00:03 |
de-facto | why would someone with symptoms go ahead and infect others? | 00:03 |
alkeryn[m] | no | 00:03 |
alkeryn[m] | my point is, someone that has symptoms should self isolate | 00:03 |
alkeryn[m] | and symptoms are a mechanism that allow for more contagion, ex sneezing | 00:04 |
alkeryn[m] | people that have symptoms tend to have a much higher viral load than those that just test positive | 00:04 |
alkeryn[m] | also they sneeze etc... | 00:04 |
LjL | alkeryn[m], "in virology", not all viruses are equal... with this particular virus, i won't say it's *completely clear*, but there were definitely studies concluding that the peak contagiousness happens like one day before becoming symptomatic | 00:04 |
alkeryn[m] | fair enough, but still Ljl most people are completly asymptomatic, and the symptomatic ones tend to be for days to weeks | 00:05 |
LjL | i don't think most people are completely asymptomatic | 00:05 |
alkeryn[m] | so 1 day of high contagiousness is nothing compared to the whole span in which they are highly contagious | 00:05 |
alkeryn[m] | isolating only the sick would still alow to trend to less symptomatic strains most likely | 00:05 |
alkeryn[m] | well they actually are lmao | 00:05 |
alkeryn[m] | look how much people are tested with no symptoms whatsoever | 00:05 |
alkeryn[m] | and now you have to think that there is a bias in testing | 00:06 |
alkeryn[m] | as the sick will tend to get tested more than the ones that are not | 00:06 |
alkeryn[m] | most asymptomatic aren't even tested | 00:06 |
LjL | %links asymptomatic lombardy | 00:06 |
Brainstorm | LjL, Sorry, nothing found. Try with broader keywords | 00:06 |
LjL | did i make it case sensitive like an idiot? | 00:06 |
LjL | %links asymptomatic Lombardy | 00:06 |
Brainstorm | LjL, Sorry, nothing found. Try with broader keywords | 00:06 |
LjL | bleh, anyway, https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.08471 | 00:06 |
alkeryn[m] | ex if you are very sick you will go to an hospital which will test you, same if you die from it | 00:07 |
alkeryn[m] | which is also why it creates a bias | 00:07 |
alkeryn[m] | thanks i'll read it later | 00:07 |
alkeryn[m] | i like reading data from both "camps" | 00:07 |
de-facto | afaik most infections come from the ability of SARS-CoV-2 to replicate very efficiently in the upper respiratory tract, without even causing many symptoms at first (it suppresses innate immunity responses), but people already being highly contagious, e.g. by singing or talking or spitting at each others etc | 00:07 |
alkeryn[m] | well fair enough, though studies has already been done with people in rooms and whatnot | 00:08 |
alkeryn[m] | it isn't super contagious | 00:08 |
de-facto | its extremely contagious | 00:08 |
de-facto | much more than influenza etc | 00:08 |
alkeryn[m] | if it was as much as you think there would be a lot more death even though it kills very little people | 00:08 |
alkeryn[m] | contagiousness is pm on par with a bad flu season | 00:08 |
de-facto | in Netherlands they had 800 cases at July 1st and 10000 cases at July 10th, thats 12-fold increase | 00:09 |
alkeryn[m] | well, it has never been observed in a controlled setting though | 00:09 |
de-facto | in my book that is extremely contagious | 00:09 |
alkeryn[m] | and cases aren't a good metric as they use PCR which is highly unreliable | 00:09 |
de-facto | omg i am out of here | 00:09 |
alkeryn[m] | but even assuming pcr wasn't total bonkers as a test | 00:09 |
alkeryn[m] | lol | 00:09 |
alkeryn[m] | dude you should look into it | 00:09 |
alkeryn[m] | heck the creator of pcr itself pointed it out. | 00:09 |
alkeryn[m] | also that 12 fold increase isn't nothing crazy, it's still contagious even though not that much, you will still have an exponential that eventually plateau | 00:11 |
LjL | alkeryn[m], https://github.com/ljl-covid/links#epidemiology shows that a minority of people are asymptomatic. these numbers are biased by testing favoring people with symptoms, okay. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20053157v1 tested *everyone* in the town repeatedly and they still found only 43% asymptomatic | 00:12 |
LjL | i swear https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.08471 also used to say 36.1% asymptomatic but i can't find it neither in the abstract nor in the text now | 00:13 |
LjL | if PCR is "bonkers" and even its creator pointed it out, though, feel free to provide exhaustive references to that... | 00:14 |
alkeryn[m] | there was a hour long talk of kerry mullis in which he mentioned few of the pitfalls, you can find it pretty easily. | 00:15 |
alkeryn[m] | but tldr, you can find pretty much anything you want to look for with pcr with enough cycles | 00:15 |
alkeryn[m] | with 35+ cycles you can get near 100% false positive | 00:15 |
alkeryn[m] | so amplifying can be fine if you then check some viral load and whatnot | 00:15 |
alkeryn[m] | but the issue is mostly that the number of cycle isn't standardised at all | 00:16 |
alkeryn[m] | and not consistent through time | 00:16 |
alkeryn[m] | a lot of contries increase the number of cycles and suddenly you have more case per % tested | 00:16 |
alkeryn[m] | also the number of people tested / day isn't consistent | 00:16 |
LjL | "Mullis attracted controversy for denying humans' role in climate change and for expressing doubts that HIV causes AIDS,[6][7][8]" ← seems to have Nobel syndrome | 00:17 |
alkeryn[m] | but even if you do number of test / positive, you can fake a spike by just increasing the number of cycles | 00:17 |
alkeryn[m] | <LjL ""Mullis attracted controversy fo"> maybe, maybe not, you should look at what were his argument before dissmissing it alltogether | 00:17 |
alkeryn[m] | i don't agree with him on the climate change thing. | 00:17 |
alkeryn[m] | but on the HIV one he had some compelling ones and i'm quite neutral to it. | 00:18 |
alkeryn[m] | also wikipedia isn't very reliable, they actually edit history whenever someone says something that doesn't go with some agendas | 00:18 |
himesama | alkeryn[m]: sorry if this was covered but there would be selective pressure to be contagious before symptoms appear in your scheme | 00:19 |
alkeryn[m] | ex editing out robert malone contributions to mrna technology or downplaying his involvment after he expressed concerns with the vaccine. | 00:19 |
alkeryn[m] | <himesama "alkeryn: sorry if this was cover"> yes there is selective pressure to be contagious in both case, but you care more about symptoms, no one would care about the virus if it was super contagious but had close to no symptoms | 00:20 |
alkeryn[m] | heck there are a lot of virus rn that no one is even aware of simply because they just pass through | 00:20 |
alkeryn[m] | you most likely have thousands of live viruses inside you rn, most of them just don't do much. | 00:20 |
himesama | alkeryn[m]: true, but if you only isolate symptomatics, then the only transmission will be asymptomatioc. i know of no virology rule that says that symptoms will reduce by increasing transmission while asymptomatic. of course, as i am not a virologist, that is no surprise. | 00:21 |
alkeryn[m] | eventually some mutate and becomes more symptomatic. | 00:21 |
LjL | if you're "neutral" about HIV causing AIDS, i think i will pull a de-facto and go do something else (like stare at the wall) because today is not a good day for that | 00:21 |
himesama | there IS a rule that says that over time stuff becomes less symptomatic,and idk the relation to your ypothesis if any | 00:21 |
alkeryn[m] | <himesama "alkeryn: true, but if you only i"> yup, but do you really care about people getting it if no one is every sick, that's also in parts why new disease in the past "dimmed" down over time, not only people developped imunity, but virus tend to be less symptomatics due to humans intuitively avoiding to get close to sick people, and sick people tending to stay at home to rest | 00:22 |
alkeryn[m] | also, in history, as a virus become more contagious it also tend to become less symptomatic | 00:22 |
LjL | a "rule" that is more like a myth that i've never seen stated without a lot of caveats credibly | 00:22 |
alkeryn[m] | my point is, if you just did nothing, eventually covid would pm become a non issue that's just as bad if not even nicer that the common cold | 00:23 |
alkeryn[m] | and it'll just be another common cold | 00:23 |
himesama | alkeryn[m]: we are talking past each other. i think everybody gets your point but we are disagreeing with the assumption that symptoms will go down as i at least would like to know mechanism for htat. | 00:23 |
alkeryn[m] | NPI are just making things worse, especially since you allow the reservoir of "viable" host to replenish fast enough | 00:23 |
alkeryn[m] | that's why the spanish flu died off, it just ran out of reservoir of people that weren't imune | 00:23 |
alkeryn[m] | sure it had a cost high in lives | 00:23 |
alkeryn[m] | but if you tried to slow down its progression, the reservoir would be replenished and it would have killed a lot more people over time | 00:24 |
LjL | https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/blob/master/COVID-19-chat.md | 00:25 |
alkeryn[m] | <himesama "alkeryn: we are talking past eac"> there are 2 mechanism, people getting immunity and natural selection and it can be observed in pm all of recorded history of diseases. | 00:26 |
himesama | ok maybe my brain is not in any shape to understand you right now | 00:26 |
alkeryn[m] | let's say everyone got the virus at once, there would be a lot more death than if you only contaminated let's say 20% of the population every years for decades for ex. | 00:26 |
alkeryn[m] | haha don't worry it's fine | 00:26 |
alkeryn[m] | i don't wanted to get into a deep debate anyway ^ | 00:27 |
alkeryn[m] | besides i'm not a native english speaker so there is a bit of a language barrier | 00:27 |
alkeryn[m] | anyway @Ljl | 00:28 |
alkeryn[m] | anyway LjL thanks for the links i'll read some of it and add it to my collection. | 00:28 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Cauca, Colombia: +799 cases (now 46908), +9 deaths (now 1214) since a day ago — Canada: +7 deaths (now 26457) since 21 hours ago | 00:29 |
himesama | i still disagree enough to not say i agree, but will shift to a different topic... " you only i"> yup, but do you really care about people getting it if no one is every sick, that's also in parts why new disease" yes i do. i care very much. and so shold the world (but does not yet). the reason is that asymptomatic infections are, i believe, causing long covid. i think in nontrivial proportions. world | 00:30 |
himesama | = titanic. lc = iceberg. | 00:30 |
alkeryn[m] | but one of the logic is also, if a virus kills all of its hosts it has an extreme disadvantage compared to one that just pass through and do its things | 00:32 |
alkeryn[m] | even one that just make people sick, as people will tend to get away from them etc... | 00:32 |
joerg | I seen too many false assertions in last maybe 300 lines than I could debunk right now | 00:32 |
alkeryn[m] | which is in part why over time they tend to become more contagious and less deadly | 00:32 |
alkeryn[m] | it's not a rule of the genome itself that "more contagious = less deadly" it's just a trend that can be observed in history so it is more of a rule of thumb | 00:33 |
alkeryn[m] | <himesama "i still disagree enough to not s"> eh, long covid isn't a huge percentage of people that get it, and if you cared about asymptomatic viruses that much, there are thousands of them inside you right now | 00:34 |
alkeryn[m] | heck some are built into our genome and our cells produce them on a daily basis | 00:34 |
alkeryn[m] | human genome has a lot of foreign virus dna inside it, in fact it is very often used as a technique to trace back ancestry in genetics. | 00:35 |
joerg | for a start let me say that we have pretty good and professionally de-biased studies yielding percentage of asymptomatic cases, and they are not as high as you try to suggest up there | 00:35 |
alkeryn[m] | that is one of the many reasons we know some species and fossils are ancestors to humans | 00:35 |
alkeryn[m] | well there are also some builtin virus that are just innactive code / "junk dna" | 00:35 |
alkeryn[m] | <joerg "for a start let me say that we h"> that can be tricked with the sensitivity of the pcr | 00:36 |
alkeryn[m] | point is, asymptomatics will tend to have a lower viral load | 00:36 |
alkeryn[m] | so if you tune your pcr cycle just fine you can easily make a "cutoff" point | 00:36 |
Brainstorm | New from The Lancet (Online): [Seminar] Lung cancer: Lung cancer is one of the most frequently diagnosed cancers and the leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide with an estimated 2 million new cases and 1·76 million deaths per year. Substantial improvements in our understanding of disease biology, application of predictive biomarkers, and [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/TTNzDO | 00:37 |
joerg | another fallacy, people evaluating PCR results are no idiots | 00:37 |
alkeryn[m] | let's say they used 45 pcr cycle, they'd have had a nearly 100% assymptomatic | 00:37 |
alkeryn[m] | if you use 25 cycles you'll get much closer to 50% asymptomatic etc... | 00:37 |
alkeryn[m] | <joerg "another fallacy, people evaluati"> i never said that they are, but that it should be taken with a grain of salt | 00:37 |
alkeryn[m] | and that pcr isn't a good tool for that job | 00:37 |
alkeryn[m] | as you can pm get any asymptomatic % you are trying to get | 00:38 |
alkeryn[m] | you could get 99.9 % asymptomatic as much as 1% asymptomatic depending of how you tune your testing method | 00:38 |
alkeryn[m] | not saying that it is done intentionally, but that there is no good way of measuring this | 00:38 |
LjL | <alkeryn[m]> heck some are built into our genome and our cells produce them on a daily basis ← "DNA fossils" of viruses you can find in our genome don't generally mean that the virus is still being *made* by our body | 00:38 |
alkeryn[m] | it's not a simple as "infected" and "non infected", it's more of a viral load thing. | 00:39 |
joerg | sorry, I got no time to "answer" each of your statements, since each answer would need another 5 messages explaining what's wrong with that last statement | 00:39 |
alkeryn[m] | <LjL "<alkeryn[m]> heck some are b"> yep i mentioned it latter, whilst some are being made, most of it is innactive junk dna | 00:39 |
himesama | i had to kill my client to fix it. i am afraid that we might be dunning-krugering here. | 00:39 |
alkeryn[m] | <joerg "sorry, I got no time to "answer""> fair enough dw ^ | 00:39 |
alkeryn[m] | <himesama "i had to kill my client to fix i"> what do you mean, what happened to your client ? | 00:40 |
alkeryn[m] | haha i'm well aware of dunning krueger, anyway i'm not really making any bold claims | 00:40 |
himesama | i couldn't enter text and stuff like that never mind | 00:40 |
alkeryn[m] | ah sucks | 00:40 |
joerg | did matrix recently invent a "reply to" feature? could that get deactivated, pretty please? | 00:40 |
himesama | your statment that lc is not a huge percentage sounds like a bold claim to me, and i awanted to make sure that nobody thought that lc = asymptomatic as when i said asymptomatic is wass not referring to lc | 00:41 |
alkeryn[m] | anyway, i'm not claiming to be an expert on the topic, i'm fundamentally not a virologist, but i'm still a scientist and i know basic statistics | 00:41 |
LjL | the claim that PCR is not an adequate tool for testing COVID may "not be bold" in certain circles, unfortunately those are circles i've liked a lot | 00:41 |
himesama | no big deal about client i just restarted it and it works i am not picky | 00:41 |
alkeryn[m] | my point is you can have "cuttoff points" with pcr quite easily, it's not a good tool to measure asymptomatic % | 00:41 |
alkeryn[m] | <LjL "the claim that PCR is not an ade"> oh, well now it was more about the claim that it isn't an adequate tool to measure the percentage of people that are asymptomatic as the cutoff point is kind of arbitrary | 00:42 |
alkeryn[m] | <himesama "no big deal about client i just "> what client do you use ? :^) | 00:42 |
himesama | it was oissibly my own config error i don't want to talk about it | 00:43 |
alkeryn[m] | i see | 00:43 |
alkeryn[m] | <joerg "did matrix recently invent a "re"> whilst it is builtin the protocol, in the end it is your client's responsibility to interpret it, so it must be a client specific thing, maybe yours has an option to ignore them. | 00:44 |
joerg | sorry, I'm an *IRC* user | 00:45 |
alkeryn[m] | hahaha same | 00:45 |
alkeryn[m] | yea only started using matrix few days ago | 00:45 |
alkeryn[m] | i like that in irc you can just write the name of the person and that's it | 00:45 |
himesama | percentages of lc (in asymptomatic or symptomatic) are probably tricky to define until we get good clinical biomarkers, but i have never read opinion from any knowledgeable commentators that was low. (there migh be some but consensus is at or larger than 9-20 percent). the trouble is 1) defining it phenotypically 2) progression of the disease. politicians are gambling with lives re 2). | 00:46 |
himesama | and they are not making a good bet at all but instead bettin that they will be out of office before tey face any consequences personally from the devastation tehy wreak | 00:47 |
LjL | joerg, it's not recent at all, it has had it for a long time. some Matrix users use it more, some less. I do ask Matrix users to limit the user of edits, replies and multiline messages as far as practicable since i still consider this primarily an IRC channel | 00:47 |
alkeryn[m] | what do you mean exactly by lc ? | 00:47 |
alkeryn[m] | yea | 00:47 |
LjL | joerg, it can't be disabled though. in the future some Matrix features may be disabled per-room, there's an issue filed about that with interest from Matthew (Matrix's head person), but probably not replies | 00:48 |
himesama | long covid, defined loosely as at this point i can't and shouldn't try to go into details much | 00:48 |
alkeryn[m] | Ah ok my bad, sometime i struggle a bit with english acronyms lol | 00:48 |
alkeryn[m] | yea, i mean none of this stuff is black and white so it can be tricky to work with in term of statistics | 00:48 |
alkeryn[m] | though lc could be loosely definined as symptoms that don't disappear months after recovery if not permanent. | 00:49 |
himesama | sure | 00:50 |
himesama | good enough for me | 00:50 |
alkeryn[m] | though, there is also another kind of lc that could be possible, symptoms that appears at first only months or years after recovery and not just symptoms that just didn't disapear | 00:50 |
himesama | but SERIOUS symptoms | 00:50 |
alkeryn[m] | ex you got covid now and 10 years down the line you get kidney cancer or some shit like that | 00:50 |
himesama | right yes good point | 00:50 |
alkeryn[m] | tbh i wouldn't be surprised if it leads to brain issues years latter as this spike protein is known to cross the blood brain barrier. | 00:53 |
alkeryn[m] | though i'm not claiming it would be the case, that would be quite a bold statement lmao | 00:53 |
alkeryn[m] | and with things like azheimer that can be caused by some protein in the brain | 00:53 |
alkeryn[m] | shit wouldn't be the wildest thing there is | 00:53 |
alkeryn[m] | though, as much with covid than the vaccine, there simply isn't enough data to assert anything about the future with confidence | 00:54 |
himesama | plenty of diseases do that so it's not impossible either but we have data on post-viral diseases. the policymaking seems to ignore this body of research. | 00:55 |
alkeryn[m] | and as much as i don't want to take my risk with the vaccine, you can say that there isn't enough long term data for the virus just as much. | 00:56 |
alkeryn[m] | yea, well policy makers usually ignore a lot of things | 00:56 |
alkeryn[m] | though, i'm on the side that it should be the concerned people's individual choice | 00:57 |
himesama | idgi | 00:57 |
himesama | we could have no npi at all and it's personal choice? i'd say negative externalties do exist. | 00:58 |
alkeryn[m] | though the vaccine does seems more risky to me than the virus, maybe it isn't, not gonna tell you what to do but i'm just for people having the right to make their own decision | 00:58 |
himesama | oic, the vax nm | 00:58 |
alkeryn[m] | i mean data has shown npi to not be very effective if not detrimental on the longterm | 00:58 |
alkeryn[m] | though "npi" is a broad category | 00:58 |
alkeryn[m] | there are many npi some being worse than others | 00:59 |
alkeryn[m] | oic ? nm ? | 00:59 |
joerg | LjL: thanks for clarifying | 00:59 |
alkeryn[m] | though, there is no real solution besides just living with it now, even if you vaccinated everyone overnight, the virus would probably still not disappear, let alone the fact that you couldn't possibly pull that off. | 01:01 |
alkeryn[m] | i guess i'd be for the people at risk having access to the vaccine, and making their own choice based on the assessed risk | 01:01 |
alkeryn[m] | and the rest of the people just living normally pre cv19 | 01:02 |
joerg | the virus definitely won't disappear | 01:02 |
alkeryn[m] | * i guess i'd be for the people at risk having easy access to the vaccine, and making their own choice based on the assessed risk | 01:02 |
alkeryn[m] | well then there is the whole political and economic side of the whole debate and covid passport bullshit, but seems to be a bit out of context so maybe not worth arguing about that | 01:03 |
de-facto | "though the vaccine does seems more risky to me than the virus" what do you mean by risky here? | 01:03 |
alkeryn[m] | still, i'm a lot more against vaccination passports than the vax itself | 01:03 |
alkeryn[m] | <de-facto ""though the vaccine does seems m"> possible long term effects, no one having legal liability, a lot of reported side effects and deaths already, and with my health and level of health me being very unlikely to have issues with covid19. | 01:04 |
alkeryn[m] | at my age and 0 comorbidities, there might be a lot more risk with vaccine adverse reaction than covid itself tldr. | 01:05 |
alkeryn[m] | that's not so the case if you are like 40 or 50 | 01:05 |
alkeryn[m] | especially if you have comorbidities | 01:05 |
himesama | are you a teenager? | 01:06 |
alkeryn[m] | but yea health wise i'm probably one the 99th percentile or something like that | 01:06 |
himesama | (not an insult) | 01:07 |
alkeryn[m] | just turned 23 yesterday | 01:07 |
alkeryn[m] | though i'm in top physical shape | 01:07 |
alkeryn[m] | i have an impecable diet | 01:07 |
alkeryn[m] | i never drink, don't smoke, no drugs | 01:07 |
alkeryn[m] | exercise regularly | 01:07 |
alkeryn[m] | healthy lifestyle overall | 01:07 |
alkeryn[m] | and yea, i virtually never get sick. | 01:07 |
alkeryn[m] | though i do understand that it isn't the case for most people | 01:08 |
de-facto | that is not true, the approval itself is done by a metric that is called the individual benefit to risk ratio, it compares two scenarios, 1) getting covid without vaccination 2) getting vaccinated hence preventing getting covid with naive immune system, so there has to be a clear benefit from vaccination otherwise it wont be approved for that group | 01:08 |
joerg | I guess you won't find a lot of similar minded persons in here, ut seems established knowledge that the vaccine isn't more dangerous to any particular person than the virus, after all they both do pretty much the identical thing to that person's body just the virus much more aggressively and with a collection of bonus damage on top | 01:08 |
alkeryn[m] | but yea in my case i probably don't risk a lot with cv | 01:08 |
alkeryn[m] | <de-facto "that is not true, the approval i"> this ignores the vaccine adverse effects | 01:08 |
himesama | it sounds like this whole discussion might be related to your concern that you will be vaccinated against your will? i would caution that stating that npi are not always useful, lc is low percentage, etc. in service of an argument to keep that from occurring to you could distort unrelated topics, if you are not careful. your best bet would be to focus on your individual rights issue i think except then we get to t | 01:08 |
himesama | alk about your moral obligation not to infect others. | 01:08 |
de-facto | no it does not ignore the adverse effects of the vaccine | 01:09 |
Brainstorm | New from The Lancet (Online): [Articles] Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1: After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/VEUTst | 01:09 |
alkeryn[m] | <himesama "alk about your moral obligation "> if they don't wanna get infected, don't get close to me, or stay at home, besides, the vaccine don't prevent transmission. | 01:09 |
de-facto | those are the first thing that are evaluated in the trials, direct adverse effects and they monitor the participants for long time after that | 01:09 |
alkeryn[m] | <de-facto "those are the first thing that a"> there are possibly long term adverse effect and just look at VAERS | 01:09 |
de-facto | maybe you should try to read the protocols | 01:09 |
alkeryn[m] | besides vaers is only a fraction of the actual ones | 01:10 |
alkeryn[m] | a lot just go unreported or counted as covid | 01:10 |
alkeryn[m] | besides, most of the companies involved in this already had scandals in the past | 01:10 |
alkeryn[m] | some including data falsification | 01:10 |
joerg | and one thing's for sure, like the preacher's "amen": you get immune or dead, one way or the other | 01:10 |
alkeryn[m] | and they still don't have any legal liability whatsoever | 01:10 |
de-facto | yeah i know VAERS, those are nothing compared to the health problems all those people would have if exposed to the risk of COVID without vaccination in advance | 01:10 |
alkeryn[m] | that can be discussed | 01:11 |
joerg | as I said, it been discussed in here already | 01:11 |
de-facto | at the peak around 5k people died from COVID in US | 01:12 |
de-facto | each single day | 01:12 |
alkeryn[m] | <de-facto "at the peak around 5k people die"> the data is being manipulated though | 01:12 |
alkeryn[m] | over 94% had on average 2.70 comorbidities | 01:12 |
alkeryn[m] | us population is also super unhealthy | 01:12 |
alkeryn[m] | with 1/3 obese and 2/3 overweight | 01:12 |
de-facto | so do we see an increase or decrease in the hospitalizations and fatal outcomes with vaccinations? | 01:13 |
joerg | how many died from vaccination at peak of vax campaign which obviously did more "cases" per day than covid? | 01:13 |
alkeryn[m] | point is, US demography don't represent me at all | 01:13 |
alkeryn[m] | <de-facto "so do we see an increase or decr"> too soon to reach a conclusion, many countries having an increase and some having a decrease | 01:13 |
alkeryn[m] | anyway, all cause mortality is imo a better metric | 01:13 |
himesama | i'm finding this a bit hard to wrap my head around: "if they don't wanna get infected, don't get close to me, or stay at home" | 01:13 |
alkeryn[m] | <joerg "how many died from vaccination a"> also, how many are reported | 01:13 |
de-facto | sure look at Indonesia and UK, both having their Delta wave | 01:14 |
alkeryn[m] | in the last few months more died from the vaccine in australia than covid | 01:14 |
joerg | oh please, yeah, the numbers all are manipulated | 01:14 |
alkeryn[m] | though there is the fact that they don't have a lot of covid to begin with, they are an island that closed the border lol | 01:14 |
alkeryn[m] | <joerg "oh please, yeah, the numbers all"> i didn't said that, but that there is a bias | 01:14 |
joerg | [15 Jul 2021 01:12:34] <alkeryn[m]> <de-facto "at the peak around 5k people die"> the data is being manipulated | 01:15 |
joerg | [15 Jul 2021 01:13:59] <alkeryn[m]> <joerg "how many died from vaccination a"> also, how many are reported | 01:15 |
alkeryn[m] | besides you see people die just right after the vaccine and they'll be like "it's prolly not the vaccine/needs to be looked into more" and you see people that died of probably something else instantly marked as covid death | 01:15 |
alkeryn[m] | heck terminal cancer patient that were flagged as a covid death | 01:15 |
de-facto | http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom;Indonesia&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&miscType=Reff | 01:15 |
LjL | alkeryn[m], VAERS being a "fraction of the actual ones" is only true if it weren't also true that VAERS contains a lot of things that *aren't* really caused by the vaccine, but just happen around the time the vaccine is taken | 01:16 |
LjL | i'm about to file a report to my local VAERS equivalent, yet i don't know for sure that it is actually related to the vaccine | 01:16 |
alkeryn[m] | <LjL "alkeryn, VAERS being a "fraction"> that is a fair point | 01:16 |
himesama | those claims are common but usually by those that deny the pandemic and have political reasons to do so. it would be useful to hve some backing for them for the experts in this channel to comment on. | 01:16 |
alkeryn[m] | though, there has been more VAERS reports this years than in the last 20 or so years | 01:16 |
joerg | alkeryn[m]: sorry, we are beyond that discussion in here I hoped. at least we're fed up by users telling us "the truth" they discovered | 01:16 |
alkeryn[m] | besides, there are many mechanisms in which the vaccine could harm you which corelates with people's complications | 01:16 |
de-facto | hint: compare how fatalities follow cases in both countries until UK vaccinated a lot of their population | 01:16 |
LjL | alkeryn[m], there's also been more pandemics this year than in the last 100 or so years | 01:17 |
alkeryn[m] | <joerg "alkeryn: sorry, we are beyond th"> yea i'm not telling you "OMG LOOK AT THE TRUTH" but that there are things that are worth looking into and that some of it is definitely shady at best | 01:17 |
alkeryn[m] | <de-facto "hint: compare how fatalities fol"> countries that no longer test vaccinated people, you should also take that into account | 01:17 |
himesama | vague mention of them does not help at this point in this particular case, i think | 01:17 |
alkeryn[m] | since they don't test, they won't count as covid death | 01:17 |
joerg | and what makes you think we didn't hear of those things a hundered times already and looked into them? | 01:18 |
alkeryn[m] | ex : https://news.northeastern.edu/2021/06/09/northeastern-to-suspend-covid-19-testing-for-fully-vaccinated-individuals/ | 01:18 |
alkeryn[m] | yea well it is at best disingenuous | 01:18 |
de-facto | what? COVID fatalities not being tested? | 01:18 |
alkeryn[m] | "oh vaccinated people don't get covid" *stops testing vaccinated people* | 01:18 |
de-facto | its the first thing they probably do when you enter a hospital with symptoms, test with PCR | 01:19 |
LjL | alkeryn[m], that says that "all fully vaccinated members of the Northeastern University community will no longer need to be tested regularly", it doesn't say that people with actual symptoms (nevermind death) won't get tested | 01:19 |
LjL | regular testings are quite a different thing | 01:19 |
alkeryn[m] | fair enough, still it points to "case" not being a good metric | 01:19 |
alkeryn[m] | death is still fine | 01:19 |
* alkeryn[m] uploaded an image: (49KiB) < https://libera.ems.host/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/kYhTdDlGAmQkbcVYlwgaSCFS/image.png > | 01:20 | |
joerg | I really don't like your biased flooding | 01:20 |
alkeryn[m] | you absolutely can't attribute it to the vaccine, that just looks like any summer low | 01:20 |
de-facto | well and infection to fatality ratio seems to fall a lot with vaccinations, hence there is a clear benefit from vaccinations lowering the risk of severe COVID by orders of magnitude | 01:20 |
alkeryn[m] | winter will tell really | 01:20 |
de-facto | to me that looks like there is MUCH more risk from covid than from vaccinations | 01:21 |
alkeryn[m] | <de-facto "well and infection to fatality r"> yes i do agree that it reduce the risk of death from covid | 01:21 |
alkeryn[m] | but it also come with a risk of dying from the vaccine itself | 01:21 |
alkeryn[m] | and that risk is probably higher for me than the risk of dying of covid | 01:21 |
alkeryn[m] | considering what demographic i'm a part of | 01:21 |
alkeryn[m] | that's not the case for everyoen | 01:21 |
alkeryn[m] | * that's not the case for everyone | 01:21 |
de-facto | thats what i meant with *individual* benefit to risk ratio | 01:21 |
de-facto | it depends on your age of course | 01:21 |
alkeryn[m] | though there is also the risk that the vaccine whilst protecting you from current strains prime you to be more vulnerable to future strains | 01:22 |
alkeryn[m] | which is something that has already been observed in the past. | 01:22 |
LjL | now we go with the ADE | 01:22 |
alkeryn[m] | yea | 01:22 |
alkeryn[m] | anyway, my point is, it should always be the individual's choice | 01:22 |
joerg | >><alkeryn[m]> and that risk is probably higher for me than the risk of dying of covid<< no, the risk of dying from vaccination is almost *never* higher than the risk from the virus itself | 01:22 |
LjL | some of your arguments sound reasonable but it looks like a script. i've seen other people shoveling out the same arguments the same way in the same order... | 01:22 |
himesama | i missed this 16:22 <alkeryn[m]> though there is also the risk that the vaccine whilst protecting you from current strains prime you to be more vulnerable to future strains | 01:22 |
alkeryn[m] | and for me specifically, the vaccine seems to be a bigger risk | 01:22 |
de-facto | hence they collect enough data until they approve it for each age group, and since you are older than 18 there is a clear benefit from vaccination in lowering the COVID risk for you, taken the risk of (very rare) vaccine side effects into account of course | 01:22 |
joerg | LjL: pretty much, yeah | 01:23 |
alkeryn[m] | <himesama "i missed this 16:22 <alkeryn> th"> haha yea, i'm not gonna push this one too much though, we don't know enough | 01:23 |
alkeryn[m] | really, imo, only this winter will tell | 01:23 |
alkeryn[m] | will we see lower all cause mortality than last years and other years | 01:23 |
alkeryn[m] | or more | 01:23 |
de-facto | you know they use statistics for deriving those statements, if you got a benefit from vaccination | 01:23 |
alkeryn[m] | you can't easily compare during summer as it is mostly seasonal unfortunately | 01:23 |
alkeryn[m] | de-facto, i'm not quite sure of that. | 01:24 |
alkeryn[m] | besides, although annectdotal, i've heard a lot more people having issue with the vax than covid in my age group, although i aknowledge that it could just be an echo chamber | 01:24 |
de-facto | i dont understand from what statistic you think "for me specifically, the vaccine seems to be a bigger risk", are you in a risk group for vaccines and cant get it for some reason that differentiates you from the majority in your age group? | 01:25 |
alkeryn[m] | which is also why i try to interact as much as possible with both sides of the argument | 01:25 |
alkeryn[m] | <de-facto "i dont understand from what stat"> it isn't just my age group, on top of being only 23 i'm in impeccable health | 01:25 |
alkeryn[m] | the vaccine seems like a much bigger risk, especially since some people in perfect health did die from it too. | 01:25 |
LjL | did the guy from yesterday who said his acute COVID was a "joke" but then after one year he's still not back in health, cannot build muscle mass while he did that regularly before, etc, tell us his age? | 01:26 |
alkeryn[m] | and i heard about a lot more people in good health dying from the vax than covid although that's unreliable data. | 01:26 |
de-facto | you heard from a lot of people dying form the vax? | 01:26 |
himesama | what woul dit take to convinvce you? | 01:26 |
alkeryn[m] | <LjL "did the guy from yesterday who s"> yea, doesn't surprise me, though i'm never gonna take a single statement | 01:26 |
de-facto | i dont think this would go unnoticed | 01:27 |
himesama | lol de-facto | 01:27 |
alkeryn[m] | annectodatal evidence don't have a lot of value by itself, but if you got thousands of them it becomes more statistically significant | 01:27 |
LjL | de-facto, i doubt he could hear from them if they're dead | 01:27 |
alkeryn[m] | as long as you don't cherry pic that is | 01:27 |
alkeryn[m] | Ljl sure but you can hear from the families | 01:27 |
alkeryn[m] | i heard many families say that their kids died of covid | 01:27 |
alkeryn[m] | but i heard more that said the kid had issue with the vaccine | 01:27 |
alkeryn[m] | though again, that's not hard evidence by scientific methodology and standards | 01:28 |
alkeryn[m] | but when making a decision for oneself, intuition obviously should take a part. | 01:28 |
alkeryn[m] | and it's not like my position is that crazy anyway. | 01:28 |
himesama | alkeryn[m]: lots of those who are young do get lc efven if they do not get significant or any symptoms. i hope you are factoring that in. | 01:28 |
alkeryn[m] | yup, in fact my sister is one of them | 01:29 |
LjL | alkeryn[m], "died" vs "had issues" isn't much of a fair comparison. many more people "had issues" (including long-term ones) with COVID than those who just died. | 01:29 |
alkeryn[m] | indeed | 01:29 |
alkeryn[m] | but the same can be said for the vaccine | 01:29 |
de-facto | anecdotal cases here and there, some horror stories, it all does not matter at all. the only thing that matters are statistics, and that is exactly the metric for approval in a specific group of people | 01:30 |
himesama | the numbers talked about for significant side effects of vaccine that do not go away seem extremely small. are the numbers being maniupulated? | 01:30 |
himesama | you saying* | 01:30 |
LjL | yes, but some of the vaccine's issues are basically non-issues. having a moderate fever for a day is certainly annoying but no big deal. other issues may be more serious, but i really don't know that anyone has determined there are more issues with the vaccine than the risks COVID would bring overall for someone aged 23, considering they're authorizing for ages 12-18 now | 01:30 |
LjL | and it's not like they completely stomp on issues either. they did stop AZ for people younger than 60 in most of europe, even though that was overcautious and they could probably have focused on younger women instead | 01:31 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Fiji: +634 cases (now 12666), +10 deaths (now 69) since a day ago | 01:31 |
de-facto | i got my shot two days ago, i got some issues, my arm hurts, i got a headache, so what? it will be gone in a few days and i got some immunity against COVID that will lower my probability for severe COVID by orders of magnitude, i am quite thankful that this was offered to me | 01:31 |
alkeryn[m] | de-facto, the statistics should be taken with a grain of salt if they are being played with although i do look at them | 01:31 |
alkeryn[m] | same for annecdotal evidence | 01:31 |
alkeryn[m] | though i'm gonna say this, even though it isn't with a controlled environement, thousands of annecdotal evidence do become statistics as long as you don't cherry pic and account for bias, although that should still be taken with a grain of salt and has ofc way less value than a double blind and whatnot would | 01:31 |
alkeryn[m] | de-facto, you will have to take shots again next year | 01:31 |
alkeryn[m] | and every other years | 01:31 |
alkeryn[m] | strains will become covid resistant | 01:31 |
alkeryn[m] | you got sick from a shot, i get sick less than once a year without one | 01:32 |
alkeryn[m] | not the best argument i give you that | 01:32 |
LjL | yes, but stains have already shown they can become resistant to antibodies to the previous strain, so even people who get natural immunity won't be "safe" | 01:32 |
alkeryn[m] | i might not get sick at all from the shot inded | 01:32 |
alkeryn[m] | * i might not get sick at all from the shot either indeed | 01:32 |
LjL | alkeryn[m], not the best indeed... i'm not nearly as fit as you say you are, but Pfizer did nothing to me, neither dose | 01:33 |
alkeryn[m] | Ljl fair enough but you are ignoring the fact that antibodies aren't the whole immune system, vaccine only triggers that part, natural imunity is superior to vaccination | 01:33 |
himesama | it is precisely because youa re in good health that if i were you i would take the vaccine | 01:33 |
alkeryn[m] | and it has always been so in recorded history | 01:33 |
de-facto | again only statistics about majorities count, what you wish for if you get sick or not does not matter, what matters is if severe progressions can be lowered by vaccinations and that seems to be the case | 01:33 |
himesama | you have less reason to bve concerned about the vacine | 01:33 |
LjL | alkeryn[m], vaccines don't only trigger that part, that's bollocks. T-cell activations from vaccines has been studied and is being studied. | 01:33 |
alkeryn[m] | besides, people that had other family of coronaviruses in the past still have an imune response sometime decades later | 01:33 |
alkeryn[m] | yea but it is more than antibodies and T cells, besides it doesn't trigger them as much | 01:34 |
alkeryn[m] | anyway, we are already seing vaccine resistant strains | 01:34 |
alkeryn[m] | whilst some people are still imune to coronaviruses decades after first infection | 01:34 |
alkeryn[m] | even though it isn't the same coronavirus | 01:34 |
LjL | yes, and we started seeing them even before the vaccines had reached a meaningful portion of the population | 01:34 |
alkeryn[m] | the fact that they are in the same family still means something | 01:34 |
LjL | which means they were really developing to resist against *natural* immunity | 01:34 |
alkeryn[m] | fair enough ! | 01:35 |
joerg | >><alkeryn[m]> annectodatal evidence don't have a lot of value by itself, but if you got thousands of them it becomes more statistically significant<< said the guy using anecdotal stuff for facts and produced more anecdotes serving as facts for other guys with similar agenda | 01:35 |
alkeryn[m] | anyway, i rather risk getting covid every year than taking a vax every year | 01:35 |
alkeryn[m] | do you also take your flu vax ? | 01:35 |
alkeryn[m] | do you know many 20 year olds that do ? | 01:35 |
LjL | i know elderly who do, and i know children who do. i certainly know many teenagers, and up to 20 and more, who are more rebellious to these things. | 01:35 |
alkeryn[m] | <joerg ">><alkeryn> annectodatal evidenc"> i take into account the annecdotal evidence from both sides, i don't cherry pick | 01:36 |
alkeryn[m] | and the medias and social network are leaning a lot more on the "take the vaccines" side | 01:36 |
alkeryn[m] | and i don't take into account this bias even though i should | 01:36 |
joerg | you beter did not take any side's anecdotes for anything | 01:36 |
alkeryn[m] | i have them on their own side | 01:36 |
alkeryn[m] | it's not the core of my argument | 01:36 |
alkeryn[m] | it's more of a notable mention | 01:37 |
de-facto | still i do think we need to monitor how the infeciton to fatality ratio develops over time, both with vaccinations and recoveries | 01:37 |
alkeryn[m] | * it's more of a notable mention thing | 01:37 |
alkeryn[m] | * it's more of a notable mentionsd thing | 01:37 |
alkeryn[m] | * it's more of a notable mentions thing | 01:37 |
de-facto | breakthrough will occur in boths | 01:37 |
alkeryn[m] | definitely | 01:37 |
alkeryn[m] | well, as i said before, this winter will tell how effective the vaccination is | 01:37 |
alkeryn[m] | or if it is detrimental, who knows | 01:37 |
de-facto | i am pretty sure its helpful, how much we indeed will see | 01:37 |
alkeryn[m] | rn it is summer so yea for a seasonal thing, the vaccine being effective or not not much difference will be seen | 01:38 |
joerg | and for sure we're not interested in the conclusions from such anecdotes like >><alkeryn[m]> and i heard about a lot more people in good health dying from the vax than covid although that's unreliable data.<< which I simply call BS | 01:38 |
alkeryn[m] | * rn it is summer so yea for a seasonal thing, the vaccine being effective or not, not much difference will be seen | 01:38 |
de-facto | probably immunity will get broader and broader with each antigen challenge | 01:38 |
LjL | alkeryn[m], easy with the edits please, they're really quite disruptive on IRC if you do it more than once | 01:38 |
alkeryn[m] | <joerg "and for sure we're not intereste"> yep, it is more of a notable mentions that do play with my intuition but not with my actual rational argument. | 01:38 |
alkeryn[m] | still i am an human, so i won't ever only listen to my intuition to make decisions, but it does take a part | 01:39 |
de-facto | i prefer to not risk ending up in a COVID station and rather have a headache for a few days at home while chatting :) | 01:39 |
alkeryn[m] | intuition is an ability that we evolved over millions of years and you shouldn't completly ignore it nor completly rely on it | 01:39 |
alkeryn[m] | well i'm more on the side that if i ever get covid i'll stay at home | 01:39 |
alkeryn[m] | even if i'm really sick | 01:39 |
joerg | we want others in here not suffering same fate, so please stop it | 01:39 |
alkeryn[m] | worse case i die at home in my bed | 01:39 |
alkeryn[m] | i won't go to the hospital | 01:40 |
alkeryn[m] | joerg, you have to take into account that in the case that the vaccine is detrimental, you would be the one making people suffer, i'm not claiming that it is the case however, you cannot claim that it isn't yet | 01:40 |
alkeryn[m] | either way we don't have enough data | 01:40 |
alkeryn[m] | anyone claiming it is safe is either lying or ignorant, as we just simply don't have enough data | 01:41 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Vaccine manufacturer Moderna accused of tax avoidance | The US-based pharmaceuticals company passed the profits it made on sales of its coronavirus vaccine in Europe to a shell company in Switzerland to avoid paying tax, according to an investigation → https://is.gd/LFIWHz | 01:41 |
alkeryn[m] | the same can be said if you said it is unsafe longterm | 01:41 |
alkeryn[m] | though we do see adverse reaction right now, you cannot claim that there will be long term issues in the future either | 01:41 |
joerg | I can claim you're feeding stuff to others you admitted you yourself only get influenced by since you're human | 01:41 |
alkeryn[m] | really, it is just "we don't know" | 01:41 |
alkeryn[m] | i get influenced by with my decision making but i'm still relying on my rational mind more | 01:42 |
alkeryn[m] | besides, it is more of a bayesian thing | 01:42 |
alkeryn[m] | ex: | 01:42 |
alkeryn[m] | there is a coworker at your job called john, you hate john | 01:43 |
alkeryn[m] | Now why do you hate john, you hate him because he did many things, sometime very little that annoyed you in the past or that lead you to like him less | 01:43 |
alkeryn[m] | now, do you remember of every single reason why you don't like john and every little thing he ever made that lead you to not liking him ? no | 01:43 |
alkeryn[m] | that's how human memory works | 01:43 |
alkeryn[m] | you can't remember everything you ever saw | 01:43 |
alkeryn[m] | you can't remember every reasons you have an opinion | 01:43 |
joerg | honestly, we're not exactly training users to build their own bayesian filters by feeding them with garbage | 01:43 |
alkeryn[m] | however it has been built up over time for those reasons | 01:43 |
alkeryn[m] | now the issue is people building up opinions on totally bonkers thing | 01:43 |
joerg | so please stop repeating anecdotal stuff in here | 01:43 |
alkeryn[m] | there are people that are right for the wrong reasons, people that are wrong for the right reasons because of that | 01:44 |
himesama | i kinda want to say i don't want a kantianly-expanded-to-all-of-mankind rule that "if they don't wanna get infected, don't get close to me, or stay at home". please describe what they will need to do to avoid you? shold we assume that if the tables were turned on you when you grow up and get sick with stuff (assuming for the sake of argument taht your healthy = safe idea is correct), think it's reasonable for that | 01:44 |
himesama | rule to be imposed on yourself by a 23yo radical individualist? | 01:44 |
alkeryn[m] | haha ok fair enough then, anyway it didn't really play a part in my point | 01:44 |
alkeryn[m] | it was more about talking how i feel personally about the thing | 01:44 |
alkeryn[m] | and you can't deny that there is a lot of shady stuff going on anyway | 01:44 |
alkeryn[m] | <himesama "i kinda want to say i don't want"> if i'm sick, i'll stay the fuck at home, if i'm not, i'll go outside | 01:45 |
himesama | bayesian inference is dispositiely influenced by what data you have | 01:45 |
alkeryn[m] | people shouldn't stop living because of others's fears | 01:45 |
himesama | are you saying transmission only occurs during symptoms? | 01:46 |
* joerg suggests to LjL to declare statements like >>i heard about a lot more people in good health dying from the vax than covid << as a ban-able statement | 01:46 | |
alkeryn[m] | himesama, i don't, though, symptomatic people will transmit a lot | 01:46 |
alkeryn[m] | and in all recorded history, asymptomatic people have never been the carrier of a disease | 01:46 |
alkeryn[m] | by carrier i meant the main one | 01:46 |
himesama | huh? | 01:46 |
alkeryn[m] | it was mostly about people that do have symptoms | 01:46 |
alkeryn[m] | > * <@joerg:libera.chat> suggests to LjL to declare statements like >>i heard about a lot more people in good health dying from the vax than covid << as a ban-able statement | 01:47 |
alkeryn[m] | fair enough | 01:47 |
himesama | are you saying hiv/aids is transmitted mostly by symptomatic? | 01:47 |
LjL | joerg, that's more dTal's style :P i will ask for such statements to be sourced and mostly dismiss them if they're just anecdotes. but like, i say things that are not strictly sourced too, and i think it's okay to a point | 01:47 |
de-facto | for epidemics the ability of infecting someone is what matters | 01:47 |
alkeryn[m] | <himesama "are you saying hiv/aids is trans"> HIV / AIDS transmission has never ever been observed in a controlled environment | 01:47 |
de-facto | if SARS-CoV-2 would not cause health problems we would not have this discussion here | 01:47 |
alkeryn[m] | there are married couples that banged for decades whilst not transmitting it to their partners | 01:48 |
dTal | well now hang on I'm not all fire and brimstone am I? | 01:48 |
alkeryn[m] | and even, the causation of aids by hiv can be discussed, we aren't even sure if HIV is a cause or a symptom of aids | 01:48 |
alkeryn[m] | yes people that have aids do often have hiv (although you can have aids without hiv) but all that have hiv don't have aids | 01:48 |
alkeryn[m] | it could just be a side effect | 01:49 |
LjL | dTal, i'm just saying that your channel's style is much more oriented towards "back it up with sources right now or fuck off" | 01:49 |
himesama | you made apositive claim, "16:46 <alkeryn[m]> and in all recorded history, asymptomatic people have never been the carrier of a disease" | 01:49 |
alkeryn[m] | and like pm every virus it hasn't really been isolated either | 01:49 |
alkeryn[m] | <de-facto "if SARS-CoV-2 would not cause he"> wrong, there would be many scenarios in which we would, some being a political agenda. | 01:49 |
himesama | ok, back up the parenthetical claim. this is not mainstream science. 16:48 <alkeryn[m]> yes people that have aids do often have hiv (although you can have aids without hiv) but all that have hiv don't have aids | 01:49 |
alkeryn[m] | and i didn't say that it doesn't cause health problems anywya | 01:49 |
alkeryn[m] | but that the reaction is being over dramatic | 01:50 |
alkeryn[m] | vaccination passports ? really ? for something that is barely worse than a flu ? | 01:50 |
dTal | LjL: hmmm, that's not exactly the tone I'm shooting for... sources required for blanket assertions only | 01:50 |
alkeryn[m] | <himesama "ok, back up the parenthetical cl"> that's simply a well known fact, people can have AIDS which mean (Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) without having hiv, hiv isn't the only way to be imunodeficient | 01:51 |
LjL | dTal, well, in this case alkeryn[m] is pointing out for many/most(?) of their assertions that they're anecdotic, or lack enough data yet but we also lack them the other way, or that objections are "fair enough", and so on, but that's all while deflecting a bit and, in my impression, keeping on with a script i've been before (PCR bad; vaccine potentially harmful; may cause ADE; ...) | 01:51 |
Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid unlocking a ‘perfect storm’ for pregnant women: Doctors and midwives warn Covid poses a greater risk to women in the later stages of pregnancy. → https://is.gd/ss1w75 | 01:51 |
himesama | this is not a case of one or two dodgy claims; somebody might not have data at ready to back it up because they did not expect any pushback or for whatever other reason. this is a case of a whole lot of claims that doe not seem to be mainsttream (non-tendentious/corrupt) science. | 01:52 |
de-facto | alkeryn[m], well in this case the COVID cases with severe progressions and fatalities are the reason we must avoid infection with SARS-CoV-2, and a very large part of those happen by asymptomatic carriers, i made that point because you implied that only disease matters, but i disagree, potential disease by infections matter, hence carriers of the virus with the ability to cause such infections and outcomes | 01:52 |
alkeryn[m] | <LjL "dTal, well, in this case alkeryn"> yes, i agree that we lack them both ways | 01:52 |
himesama | aids is a specific disease. it is not a blanket term describing all immunodeficiency. 16:51 <alkeryn[m]> <himesama "ok, back up the parenthetical cl"> that's simply a well known fact, people can have AIDS which mean (Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) without having hiv, hiv isn't the only way to be imunodeficient | 01:52 |
himesama | aquired* | 01:52 |
alkeryn[m] | yep aquired | 01:53 |
LjL | alkeryn[m], that wasn't my claim, though, i was just saying that's a thing of the kind you say. although in some cases i would also agree. | 01:53 |
de-facto | example: asymptomatic healthcare workers infect a lot of people in elderly homes, many end up in hospital | 01:53 |
alkeryn[m] | but you can have it without hiv | 01:53 |
himesama | back that up | 01:53 |
himesama | there are too many claims having been made that are ... bold | 01:53 |
LjL | i think AIDS not being caused by HIV is *really* fringe and i'm not comfortable with having that discussion here. which kind of makes me uncomfortable with other things as well :\ | 01:53 |
LjL | himesama, agreed | 01:54 |
himesama | disparate claims --- not closely related to one another, which makes it more suspect | 01:54 |
alkeryn[m] | well, you have aquired imunodeficiencies with no hiv, there are many ways to become imunodeficient | 01:54 |
alkeryn[m] | so that's not such a bold claiml | 01:54 |
alkeryn[m] | * so that's not such a bold claim | 01:54 |
himesama | i just debuncked that just now | 01:54 |
alkeryn[m] | and there are people with hiv that aren't imunodeficient | 01:54 |
alkeryn[m] | some that got it their whole life | 01:54 |
alkeryn[m] | and some partners that never got it from their other partner in decades of fucking | 01:54 |
himesama | you are repeating soemthing that has been debunked | 01:54 |
alkeryn[m] | how so ? | 01:55 |
Raf[m] | You sound like a conspiracist. Also this is a covid channel | 01:55 |
himesama | 16:52 <himesama> aids is a specific disease. it is not a blanket term describing all immunodeficiency. 16:51 <alkeryn[m]> <himesama "ok, back up the parenthetical cl"> that's simply a well known fact, people can have AIDS which mean (Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) without having hiv, hiv isn't the only way to be imunodeficient | 01:55 |
himesama | and then i added a word | 01:55 |
Raf[m] | If you're going to make bold claims you need sources | 01:55 |
alkeryn[m] | yea but a source for what ? | 01:55 |
alkeryn[m] | there were many claims, idk what you are asking for | 01:55 |
LjL | that's part of the problem. | 01:56 |
himesama | i am getting exastperated | 01:56 |
alkeryn[m] | and if we had to source any single claim we simply couldn't talk especially when some are really easy to find. | 01:56 |
LjL | if they're so easy to find, and yet most of the people who you're talking to here think they're pretty fringe and not accepted by science, then find them for us and change our minds | 01:56 |
LjL | enough "fair enough"s for tonight | 01:57 |
Raf[m] | (1) Aids without HIV, and the (2) transmissibility of HIV. Though I'm not overly interested in either, honestly and I think I speak for most of the channel since it's a covid channel | 01:57 |
joerg | >><LjL> that's part of the problem.<< was about to say exactly same | 01:57 |
LjL | also, i guess everyone here has their own pet peeves, but while i said nothing when i saw this, i'll bring it up now: | 01:57 |
alkeryn[m] | "non hiv aids" is a well known term | 01:57 |
alkeryn[m] | although it is a fast minority of aids | 01:57 |
alkeryn[m] | <Raf[m] "(1) Aids without HIV, and the (2"> ok then wait a sec | 01:58 |
himesama | it is a term that does not denote the disease called aids | 01:58 |
himesama | or when it does it is fringe | 01:58 |
LjL | <alkeryn[m]> if they don't wanna get infected, don't get close to me, or stay at home, besides, the vaccine don't prevent transmission. ← this is *really* a line of thinking i don't want to see, it goes past a red line here, which is why i posted https://github.com/ljl-covid/links/blob/master/COVID-19-chat.md which i'm not sure got noticed | 01:58 |
alkeryn[m] | ok then | 01:59 |
himesama | now, i am not saying all fringe theories are wrong, but aids gets significantly more funding than all other diseases at nih and ahs been well studied and gets a lot of attention and there are not currently huge forces trying to make it seem what it is not. just fringe. | 01:59 |
LjL | you are free to believe that it's the onus of other people to avoid getting infected, and you have no moral duty to avoid infecting them, but this is not a place where we're okay with that thinking | 01:59 |
himesama | THANK YOU | 01:59 |
LjL | alkeryn[m], when i google "non-HIV AIDS" i mainly find things from before 2000, particularly 1995-1996. is there ample literature on the subject, including recent literature, or is it just something a small number of researchers believed to be an entity for some years? | 02:01 |
alkeryn[m] | yea the only ones are a bit old indeed | 02:02 |
himesama | it is a term that has been applied to more than one thing but it is more like the latter and it is trotted out by hiv/aids denialists to support their claims and it gets confusing until you follow the line of argument all the way down and you end up with some fallacy like the one above about saying it is immundeficiency without hiv which is not the same thign as the disease called aids and then you feel disgusted fo | 02:02 |
himesama | r wasting your time | 02:02 |
LjL | scholar.google.com overwhelmingly finds the related but really quite different term "non-HIV/AIDS" which refers to people who are immunodepressed despite not having HID *nor* AIDS | 02:02 |
alkeryn[m] | aids is aquired imunodeffiency, and surely hiv isn't the only way to get there | 02:03 |
alkeryn[m] | even though it is the vast majority | 02:03 |
himesama | there are e.g. pidd, primary immunodeficiency diseases. they are not the same disease. | 02:03 |
himesama | no, aids is not IDENTIFIED with ac. immun. it is AN EXAMPLE OF ac. immun. there is a difference. | 02:04 |
himesama | you cannot support your claim | 02:04 |
LjL | alkeryn[m], okay, so you're doing the thing again. you say «"non hiv aids" is a well known term», which in the context of the discussion, kind of carries the implication that it's an acknowledged phenomenon, not very controversial, used in academic research. but then you agree "yeah the only ones are a bit old indeed", which is an understament, from what i see, of the fact that they were just a few fringe studies in the mid-90s. | 02:04 |
himesama | this should not be an argument ata ll. it's pellucid. | 02:04 |
LjL | i need to let you know that you can't get away with dubious rhetoric just because every time it's challenged, you water it down a bit | 02:05 |
himesama | (i wonder if the hiv denialism movement was initially spurred on by insurance companies when they were on the hook but then they stopped but the movement continued) | 02:07 |
himesama | did this make sense to you? 17:04 <himesama> no, aids is not IDENTIFIED with ac. immun. it is AN EXAMPLE OF ac. immun. there is a difference. | 02:07 |
himesama | (i acknowledge that this is a covid channel, but by taking one clear bold claim and getting it solidly backed up or debunked will be imo helpful in resolving the entire long discussion) | 02:09 |
alkeryn[m] | yea turns out the only "non hiv aids" thing is old data, although it hasn't really been refuted | 02:10 |
alkeryn[m] | though it being old doesn't change much, still, not much of a big argument if there is virtually nothing recent. | 02:11 |
himesama | there are many diseases that are probably acquired, and are very aids-like, and do not have hiv tehre at all. there is no argumet about that. the argument is about whether aids can exist without hiv. and i say it cannot, and kary mullis can say whatever he wants. he's fringe. but thank you for pcr, kary. | 02:12 |
alkeryn[m] | although, you can find shit if you go look outside of peer reviewed stuff, i'm just gonna ignore it has close to no validity. | 02:13 |
alkeryn[m] | <himesama "there are many diseases that are"> haha yea i guess, i mean pcr is indeed a neat tool in bioengineering | 02:13 |
alkeryn[m] | * although, you can find shit if you go look outside of peer reviewed stuff, i'm just gonna ignore it as it has close to no validity. | 02:14 |
joerg | did even the bots get fed up by this? | 02:20 |
joerg | oh nm, [15 Jul 2021 01:41:12] <Brainstorm> | 02:21 |
Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Covid 19: People with learning disabilities are highly vulnerable: The covid-19 pandemic has had a devastating effect on people with learning disabilities across the world. The linked paper by the OpenSAFELY collaborative led by Williamson and colleagues... → https://is.gd/YnxArK | 02:23 |
joerg | how do you like my first-ever-in-a-lifetime meme? https://imgflip.com/i/5ggk9a :-D | 02:23 |
himesama | i understood the words ein and ist | 02:24 |
FSRgoesbrr[m] | joerg: dont speak bavarian | 02:24 |
FSRgoesbrr[m] | me too :D | 02:24 |
joerg | hehe | 02:24 |
joerg | "...since a few days however, there is a slight increase..." | 02:25 |
joerg | quote of the talkinghead in this TV news the chart is a screenshot from | 02:25 |
LjL | %w Anstieg | 02:26 |
Brainstorm | LjL, Anstieg — noun: 1. increase, rise, surge, 2. ascent, 3. (mathematics) slope → https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Anstieg | 02:26 |
LjL | actually i should have guessed that | 02:26 |
LjL | %w steg | 02:26 |
Brainstorm | LjL, steg — verb: 1. (trans., informal) To conceal (data) by means of steganography — noun: 1. (obsolete) A gander → https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/steg | 02:26 |
LjL | okay, not this | 02:26 |
LjL | but still, i should have guessed | 02:26 |
joerg | %w steigen | 02:27 |
Brainstorm | joerg, steigen — verb: 1. (intr.) to ascend, to climb, to rise, 2. (intr.) to rise (in value, of commodities etc.), 3. (intr.) to enter, to step (into a large vehicle), 4. (intr., of a horse) to rear up → https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/steigen | 02:27 |
joerg | ansteiger, der Anstieg | 02:27 |
joerg | ansteigen* | 02:28 |
LjL | okay | 02:28 |
LjL | i was only saying that i should have guessed because steg has a similar meaning in a germanic language i know, and i ought to know an | 02:28 |
joerg | it's Stieg, not Steg, irregular verb from steigen | 02:30 |
LjL | ... | 02:30 |
LjL | https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/steg#Swedish | 02:30 |
joerg | Steg is sort of a bridge | 02:30 |
LjL | https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/stiga_p%C3%A5 | 02:31 |
joerg | actually I think solitary "stieg" doesn't exist at all, it's anstieg abstieg,whateverstieg | 02:33 |
joerg | as noun | 02:33 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +9146 cases (now 1.8 million), +2 deaths (now 17912) since 23 hours ago — France: +32 deaths (now 111514) since 23 hours ago — United Kingdom: +50 deaths (now 128639) since 23 hours ago | 02:33 |
LjL | well, it exists (as steg) in swedish, and that's why i should have guessed Anstieg, but i hope that's clear by now | 02:33 |
joerg | ,tr <de sie stieg die Stiege hinauf, den über den Steg zum Steig | 02:34 |
joerg | ,tr <de sie stieg die Stiege hinauf, dann über den Steg zum Steig | 02:35 |
joerg | guess I'm tired | 02:37 |
LjL | it's %tr or .tr | 02:37 |
joerg | yeah noticed it, not wearing my glasses - typo | 02:37 |
* joerg is idly musing about tomorrow's 100k7d incidences. 7.3? or 7.6? or 8.0? | 02:43 | |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Summer setback: COVID deaths and cases rising again globally → https://is.gd/5TUkmT | 02:54 |
woodhardigan[m] | Seeing this guy here saying he's fit, no comorbidities, that the virus is a just a flu gives me so many flashbacks... I thought the same until I go it and never been the same again. Look over your shoulders people, this is no joke | 03:10 |
woodhardigan[m] | * Seeing this guy here saying he's fit, no comorbidities, that the virus is just a flu gives me so many flashbacks... I thought the same until I go it and never been the same again. Look over your shoulders people, this is no joke | 03:10 |
woodhardigan[m] | * Seeing this guy here saying he's fit, no comorbidities, that the virus is just a flu gives me so many flashbacks... I thought the same until I got it and never been the same again. Look over your shoulders people, this is no joke | 03:14 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Spain's top court rules pandemic lockdown unconstitutional → https://is.gd/2Cq7ZV | 03:14 |
LjL | oh lord | 03:27 |
LjL | woodhardigan[m], yeah, i referred to you at some point above. but please can you try to limit edits to one at most, especially if the message is fairly long? on IRC edits look bad, as it just repeats the message every time you edit it (i hope at some point i will be able to disable them on a per-room level) | 03:28 |
woodhardigan[m] | Sorry mate, typing from an old phone. Was just correcting missing syntax lol | 03:30 |
himesama | the article said a state of exception would have been ok | 03:31 |
himesama | whatever that is | 03:31 |
himesama | woodhardigan[m]: yeah there is a feeling of invulnerability probably | 03:32 |
himesama | lots of articles on lc but nobody understands the seriousness of it until it happens to them. and i suspect policy is not even thinking about it more than a mention that gets ignored (i hafve o proof of this but it is consistent). | 03:33 |
LjL | woodhardigan[m], i know, i just have to tell Matrix users because, understandably, they don't know | 03:33 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Vietnam: +2025 cases (now 37434), +6 deaths (now 138) since 20 hours ago — Bhutan: +46 cases (now 2370) since 21 hours ago — Germany: +1612 cases (now 3.8 million) since 15 hours ago | 03:35 |
woodhardigan[m] | himesama Yup, that feeling got me down the hole. Was insisting on seeing people, lacking a lot in one of the worst countries in the infection rank | 03:36 |
pwr22 | I ended up following the rules not for myself but for fear for my family ☹️ | 03:57 |
pwr22 | I still don't really care if I get covid but hope they dont | 03:57 |
LjL | pwr22, didn't manage to do a second test? | 03:57 |
pwr22 | Na, I'm waiting for another lateral flow test kit to come | 03:58 |
pwr22 | Hopefully it might arrive tomorrow | 03:59 |
pwr22 | *today | 03:59 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Mauritania: +147 cases (now 22049), +3 deaths (now 499) since 22 hours ago | 04:00 |
pwr22 | I would get a PCR test but can't really spare the time to go have it (nor do i want to go to a place with other people who have covid when I have like no symptoms) | 04:01 |
woodhardigan[m] | Peter You in the countryside? | 04:06 |
de-facto | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.01.21259833v1 <-- interesting paper about antigenic diversity by vaccine selection pressure | 04:13 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: COVID-19 vaccines dampen genomic diversity of SARS-CoV-2: Unvaccinated patients exhibit more antigenic mutational variance | medRxiv | 04:13 |
de-facto | .title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03291-y | 04:20 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.nature.com: SARS-CoV-2 evolution during treatment of chronic infection | Nature | 04:20 |
de-facto | is this how evasive mutants emerged? | 04:20 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Togo: +57 cases (now 14377) since 23 hours ago | 04:37 |
pwr22 | woodhardigan: not really | 04:39 |
Brainstorm | New from Science-Based Medicine: COVID-19 is Deadlier Than the Flu for Children: It is natural the for people to compare COVID-19 to other contagious diseases, namely influenza. Journalists, politicians, and some doctors often compare the two diseases, particularly in children. Most who make this comparison claim the impact of the diseases is [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/on8b76 | 05:20 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Mexico: +12116 cases (now 2.6 million), +230 deaths (now 235507) since 23 hours ago — British Virgin Islands: +273 cases (now 1559) since a day ago — India: +23107 cases (now 31.0 million), +350 deaths (now 411560) since 19 hours ago — Netherlands: +9797 cases (now 1.8 million) since 23 hours ago | 05:40 |
Brainstorm | New from EurekAlert!: Heart problems resolve in majority of kids with COVID inflammatory syndrome: Most of the heart and immunologic problems seen in children with multisystem inflammatory syndrome (MIS-C)--a condition linked to COVID--were gone within a few months, Columbia researchers have found. → https://is.gd/R08EbH | 06:22 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Pakistan: +2545 cases (now 981392), +47 deaths (now 22689) since 23 hours ago — Panama: +1517 cases (now 418604), +7 deaths (now 6661) since a day ago | 06:29 |
Brainstorm | New from EurekAlert!: Pandemic layoffs pushed hospitality workers to leave industry: The psychological toll of losing a job due to COVID-19 caused many young hotel and restaurant workers to consider changing careers, according to a new study. Laid-off and fully furloughed hospitality employees reported being financially strained, depressed, socially [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/IiFjro | 06:43 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: HMS Queen Elizabeth: Covid outbreak on Navy flagship - All Onboard Were Vaccinated → https://is.gd/ZpUffN | 07:15 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Health: Prolonged use of steroids causes bone tissue death in post-Covid patients, warn doctors → https://is.gd/x4gpTB | 07:26 |
Brainstorm | Updates for England, United Kingdom: +37341 cases (now 4.6 million), +36 deaths (now 113018) since a day ago — Mexico City, Mexico: +4082 cases (now 717991), +32 deaths (now 35024) since a day ago — Noord-Holland, Netherlands: +2636 cases (now 295848), +1 deaths (now 2630) since a day ago — Arizona, United States: +1945 cases (now 903851), +21 deaths (now 18076) since a day ago | 07:32 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Trillions of dollars spent on Covid recovery in ways that harm environment → https://is.gd/7Ik7Uu | 07:46 |
Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Winter pressure: RSV, flu, and covid-19 could push NHS to breaking point, report warns: Outbreaks of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) this coming autumn and flu in the winter could be around twice the magnitude of a normal year and may overlap with another peak in covid-19 infections,... → https://is.gd/NZUn7z | 08:17 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: ‘No vaccine for racism’: Asian New Yorkers still live in fear of attacks → https://is.gd/9iA0qx | 08:28 |
Brainstorm | Updates for India: +54712 cases (now 31.0 million), +595 deaths (now 411805) since 22 hours ago | 08:34 |
Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | July 15, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://is.gd/HWGfyk | 09:09 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Australia’s Victoria state to go into five-day COVID-19 lockdown → https://is.gd/Z1NplG | 09:40 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Armenia: +193 cases (now 226949), +4 deaths (now 4556) since 23 hours ago | 10:01 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Chinese cities to ban unvaccinated from public spaces → https://is.gd/KkaqWw | 10:01 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Manipur, India: +1104 cases (now 80521), +17 deaths (now 1326) since a day ago — Laos: +116 cases (now 3092), +1 deaths (now 4) since a day ago | 10:38 |
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Convocazione del Consiglio dei Ministri n. 29 ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/convocazione-del-consiglio-dei-ministri-n-29/17465 ) | 10:40 | |
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Consiglio dei Ministri n. 29 ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/consiglio-dei-ministri-n-29/17467 ) | 10:40 | |
Brainstorm | New from Politico: Coronavirus: A thousand people infected with coronavirus at Dutch outdoor festival → https://is.gd/r7Blvg | 11:57 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +1624 cases (now 3.8 million) since 22 hours ago | 12:05 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_ITALIA: Covid, in Olanda quasi 1000 contagi dopo un festival. Gli organizzatori: «Siamo scioccati» → https://is.gd/Flw9Dy | 12:07 |
Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronavirusEU: Rising Case Numbers in Europe Due to Delta, Mostly Young People Affected → https://is.gd/xkUOng | 12:17 |
SpearRaven | one dose not very effective against Delta .. two needed | 12:25 |
SpearRaven | vaccine | 12:25 |
Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Caution, vaccines, testing: the only way forward: The world was already deeply divided before the pandemic, but covid has cruelly deepened the divisions (doi:10.1136/bmj.n1783).1 From the start it was clear that people in deprived or ethnic minority... → https://is.gd/jTJncl | 12:28 |
SpearRaven | start getting your shots so you have the required two asap. Take Vitamin D supplements. Request Ivermectin if infected and hospitalised | 12:28 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Indonesia: +56757 cases (now 2.7 million), +982 deaths (now 70192) since 22 hours ago — Malaysia: +13215 cases (now 880782), +110 deaths (now 6613) since 22 hours ago — Fiji: +1220 cases (now 13886), +5 deaths (now 74) since 10 hours ago | 12:30 |
Brainstorm | New from Scientific American: There Are Few Good COVID Antivirals, but That Could Be Changing: Developing pills that block the novel coronavirus has been challenging. A new Biden administration program aims to boost the effort -- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com → https://is.gd/GLSyFb | 12:49 |
Brainstorm | New from Retraction Watch: Paper from company claiming phototherapy could treat COVID-19 is retracted: A study that touted phototherapy as a way to combat the COVID-19 pandemic has been retracted after Elisabeth Bik noted a litany of concerns about the article, from duplications in the figures to the authors’ failure to disclose conflicts of [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/QFMf0m | 13:00 |
Brainstorm | Updates for British Virgin Islands: +2 deaths (now 6) since 7 hours ago | 13:07 |
joerg | 8.0 :-/ | 13:10 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: UK gets Malta to permit India-made Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine travellers → https://is.gd/QVxmJb | 13:10 |
joerg | (D) on the bright side, R_t increase actually seems to come to a halt, around 1.2 ~ 1.3 | 13:15 |
pwr22 | LjL: got my new lateral flow tests so waiting for a result now | 13:29 |
Brainstorm | New from Francois Balloux: @NAChristakis: RT by @BallouxFrancois: In 1347, Jews were blamed for bubonic plague. In the 1990s, gays were blamed for HIV. In 2020, immigrants are blamed for COVID. The weak-minded desire to blame “outsiders” for epidemics goes back millennia, as discussed in #ApollosArrow.And so this man should be deeply ashamed. → https://is.gd/1DFrSy | 13:31 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Iran: +23655 cases (now 3.5 million), +201 deaths (now 86592) since a day ago | 13:32 |
joerg | himesama: >>state of exception<< sounds like a probably poor verbatim translation of "Ausnahmezustand" (state of emergency; public emergency) | 13:33 |
joerg | sorry for 10h late | 13:34 |
joerg | >>[15 Jul 2021 02:43:06] * joerg is idly musing about tomorrow's 100k7d incidences. 7.3? or 7.6? or 8.0?<< 8.0 it is :-( | 13:35 |
Brainstorm | New from ECDC: Data on testing for COVID-19 by week and country: The downloadable data file contains information about testing volume for COVID-19 by week and country. Each row contains the corresponding data for a country and a week. The file is updated weekly. You may use the data in line with ECDC’s copyright policy. → https://is.gd/1QzArh | 13:53 |
joerg | factor 2.3 in 7 days, so next Thursday (8->) 18? | 13:54 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Malta: +222 cases (now 31834) since a day ago — Nepal: +1782 cases (now 662570), +33 deaths (now 9463) since 23 hours ago | 14:09 |
de-facto | joerg, Rt~1.3 would be my expectation value for Germany as that is what fitting pure delta value sequences showed for me | 14:25 |
joerg | yeah, 1.3 seems most "CI" | 14:26 |
de-facto | did not made the fit for latest RKI data yet though | 14:27 |
joerg | this may go up further if they don't stop and revert this damn "end all NPI" competition | 14:28 |
de-facto | joerg, did you know they provide it as xslx now? | 14:29 |
de-facto | https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Virusvariante.html | 14:29 |
de-facto | .title | 14:29 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.rki.de: RKI - Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 - Übersicht zu besorgniserregenden SARS-CoV-2-Virusvarianten (VOC) | 14:29 |
de-facto | https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/VOC_VOI_Tabelle.xlsx?__blob=publicationFile | 14:29 |
pwr22 | LjL: my test is still negative | 14:30 |
joerg | https://i.imgur.com/sfpHroZ.png is misleading, my stat doesn't keep historical data for the "7tage-inzindenz", e.g. for 2021-07-04 we had 4.9 not 5.2, yesterday 7.1 not 7.7. My stat shows the values corrected by late reports | 14:31 |
joerg | de-facto: great! many thanks! | 14:33 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Switzerland: +1 deaths (now 10902) since 22 hours ago | 14:34 |
joerg | also thanks for the "original" yesterday [14 Jul 2021 19:28:19] <de-facto> .title https://imgur.com/a/yCW271q https://i.imgur.com/xuhWbpn.png "COVID Germany: SARS-CoV-2-VoCs Evolution" src: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/DESH/Bericht_VOC_2021-07-14.pdf?__blob=publicationFile | 14:39 |
de-facto | yes thats from the usual Wednesday VoC report of RKI | 14:40 |
de-facto | actually they rock, they do very good work | 14:40 |
joerg | :nod: | 14:40 |
de-facto | a bit more than half a year ago we did not have a sequencing surveillance network at all, now they sample more than 10% of positive tests in a representative way | 14:43 |
de-facto | oh wow even more almost 27% the previous week | 14:44 |
de-facto | impressive | 14:45 |
Brainstorm | New from ECDC: Data on hospital and ICU admission rates and current occupancy for COVID-19: The downloadable data files contain information about hospitalisation and Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission rates and current occupancy for COVID-19 by date and country. Each row contains the corresponding data for a certain date (day or week) and per country. [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/PGEWAF | 15:07 |
Brainstorm | New from ECDC: Data on 14-day notification rate of new COVID-19 cases and deaths: These files contain data on the 14-day notification rate of newly reported COVID-19 cases per 100 000 population and 14-day notification rate of reported deaths per million population by week and country, in EU/EEA and the UK. Each row contains the corresponding data for [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/cALMTg | 15:18 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Lancet study says long Covid has more than 200 symptoms → https://is.gd/Lm91Mz | 15:28 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Bangladesh: +20158 cases (now 1.1 million), +436 deaths (now 17278) since 22 hours ago — Gibraltar: +32 cases (now 4518) since a day ago — Germany: +1428 cases (now 3.8 million) since 22 hours ago | 15:36 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Germany calls on China to allow further investigations into COVID origins → https://is.gd/hRIH3j | 16:12 |
Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: mass protests erupt in Greece after government bans unvaccinated from indoor public spaces & allows teens to receive jab → https://is.gd/KpSNLE | 16:33 |
Brainstorm | New from Scientific American: Kids Get 'Long COVID' Too: Some children who have recovered from COVID have lingering symptoms such as headache, fatigue and heart palpitations. → https://is.gd/B3gN4u | 16:54 |
Brainstorm | New from LitCovid: (news): Informal collectives and access to healthcare during India's COVID-19 second wave crisis. → https://is.gd/c5nYfC | 17:05 |
Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Study of a Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) Virus-like Particle (VLP) Vaccine → https://is.gd/IrbRAq | 17:26 |
Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Study to Evaluate the Immunogenicity and Safety of Heterologous SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Schemes → https://is.gd/TyuGCi | 17:37 |
Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): In This Study AUGM-101 Will be Assessed for Its Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic in Healthy Volunteers and COVID-19-infected Patients → https://is.gd/FwdxzL | 17:58 |
Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +69144 cases (now 5.3 million) since 23 hours ago | 18:06 |
Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Enabling Family Physicians to Reduce Vaccine Hesitancy and Increase Covid-19 Vaccine Uptake → https://is.gd/V5Eliz | 18:09 |
Brainstorm | New from ClinicalTrials.gov: (news): Real World Data Observational Study of COVID-19 in a Flyover Region → https://is.gd/d5GHtN | 18:19 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Morocco: +2571 cases (now 549844), +14 deaths (now 9418) since 20 hours ago | 18:30 |
Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: COVID-19 Scan for Jul 15, 2021: Monoclonal antibodies for COVID-19 Learning disabilities and COVID risk → https://is.gd/8pInZe | 18:40 |
Brainstorm | New from In The Pipeline: A Fifty-Year-Old Cancer Drug Doesn’t Do What You Think: 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) has been around a long time now (over fifty years), and it’s a standard oncology drug (particularly in colorectal treatment regimes). But try going around and asking people how it works. If you’re talking to a clinician and want to seem up on [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/JBMiXe | 18:51 |
Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Melbourne to lockdown for five days from Thursday → https://is.gd/wiLHi5 | 19:01 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +2473 cases (now 4.3 million), +9 deaths (now 127840) since a day ago | 19:08 |
Brainstorm | New from Gazzetta Ufficiale italiana: MINISTERO DELLO SVILUPPO ECONOMICO - DECRETO 17 giugno 2021: Scioglimento della «Syk soc. coop. in liquidazione», in Milano enomina del commissario liquidatore. (21A04186) → https://is.gd/DQkNFS | 19:22 |
-RSSBot[LjLmatrix- Feed: Comunicato stampa del Consiglio dei Ministri n. 29 ( https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/comunicato-stampa-del-consiglio-dei-ministri-n-29/17476 ) | 19:40 | |
Brainstorm | New from WebMD: Pre-Pandemic Normalcy Far off for the Immunocompromised: A return to pre-pandemic normalcy for those with weakened immune systems is not as simple as it may be for others. → https://is.gd/Vr4enY | 19:54 |
Brainstorm | New from WebMD: Pandemic Olympics: Health Experts Worry COVID May Win Gold: These Olympics, already postponed from 2020, will be about the fight against coronavirus as much as it will be about the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat. → https://is.gd/sDVixU | 20:05 |
de-facto | .title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(21)00299-6/fulltext preprint: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.24.20248802v3 | 20:10 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.thelancet.com: Characterizing long COVID in an international cohort: 7 months of symptoms and their impact - EClinicalMedicine | 20:10 |
de-facto | .title https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/indonesia/ <-- this is not looking good at all :/ | 20:30 |
de-facto | daily 900 deaths | 20:31 |
de-facto | i really do hope they somehow can regain control and wrestle it down, kill it off | 20:31 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Spain: +18439 cases (now 4.1 million) since a day ago | 20:35 |
de-facto | hmm dangint Spain also spiking | 20:36 |
bin | wow this is very telling https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/british-scientist-from-who-team-in-chinas-wuhan-recused-from-un-backed-commission-on-covid-19-origins/articleshow/83799324.cms | 20:42 |
Brainstorm | New from WebMD: Heart Troubles Ease Over Time in Kids With MIS-C: A new study finds most heart problems in children with a rare inflammatory condition triggered by COVID-19 infection resolve within a few months. → https://is.gd/y1Sdkq | 20:47 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Curacao: +84 cases (now 12537) since 21 hours ago | 21:00 |
Brainstorm | New from WebMD: (news): Half of U.S. Teens Plan to Get COVID Shot -- Can Numbers Go Higher? → https://is.gd/0pv1SI | 21:08 |
bogan | https://twitter.com/ahandvanish/status/1415318204902170629 | 21:12 |
bogan | maybe those get some attention now finally. among other than neurologists too | 21:15 |
bogan | https://twitter.com/scottishwormboy/status/1411952287132618752 | 21:15 |
bogan | brits will understand the humor behind this: https://twitter.com/fitterhappierAJ/status/1413931797264601088 | 21:19 |
bogan | https://twitter.com/itosettiMD_MBA/status/1413922415550291968 | 21:20 |
bogan | .title https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20210712-follow-live-france-s-macron-addresses-the-nation-as-covid-19-delta-variant-surges | 21:22 |
Brainstorm | bogan: From www.france24.com: Mandatory vaccination, Covid-19 pass and access to PCR tests: the main points from Macron's address | 21:22 |
bogan | Pfizer and BioNTech announced on Thursday that they were developing a version of the coronavirus vaccine that targets Delta, a highly contagious variant that has spread to nearly 100 countries. The companies expect to begin clinical trials of the vaccine in August | 21:28 |
bogan | week old info, but i had missed that, and wondered if they havent said anything about it yet | 21:29 |
de-facto | .title https://investors.biontech.de/news-releases/news-release-details/pfizer-and-biontech-provide-update-booster-program-light-delta | 21:32 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From investors.biontech.de: Pfizer and BioNTech Provide Update on Booster Program in Light of the Delta-Variant | BioNTech | 21:32 |
de-facto | "While Pfizer and BioNTech believe a third dose of BNT162b2 has the potential to preserve the highest levels of protective efficacy against all currently tested variants including Delta, the companies are remaining vigilant and are developing an updated version of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine that targets the full spike protein of the Delta variant." | 21:33 |
de-facto | "The first batch of the mRNA for the trial has already been manufactured at BioNTech’s facility in Mainz, Germany. The Companies anticipate the clinical studies to begin in August, subject to regulatory approvals." | 21:33 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Malawi: +785 cases (now 41498), +25 deaths (now 1301) since a day ago — Canada: +13 deaths (now 26470) since 21 hours ago | 21:37 |
Arsanerit | BNT162b2 = Comirnaty ? | 21:44 |
Arsanerit | Aren't vaccines that target variants inevitably too slow to arrive? | 21:44 |
genera | so, BNT162b3 )) | 21:46 |
bogan | i think they had b1-b4, and b2 was selected | 21:46 |
de-facto | yeah nixonix, they made several versions form wuhan spike | 21:47 |
bogan | i was hoping they would select the self-amplifying one. just because it was different | 21:47 |
bogan | but instead they selected the best one, i suppose... (benefit/harm) | 21:48 |
de-facto | self amplifying? | 21:48 |
bogan | yeah i think pfizers one candidate was that type. not sure of details, but possibly producing additional protein boosting the synthesis or something | 21:48 |
bogan | https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1412798388723200003 | 21:49 |
bogan | they had couple months delay - because its not usually the first generation of new wave that goes to hospital or dies. but notice the percentages | 21:49 |
bogan | there was some other log scale graph, if i can find it | 21:50 |
bogan | (gotta love that bbc guys question) | 21:50 |
Arsanerit | what was the question? | 21:51 |
de-facto | i think we need surveillance of IFR over time to estimate current vaccine protection against severe progressions | 21:54 |
de-facto | for breakthrough cases that is | 21:54 |
bogan | https://twitter.com/MiddxMinxx/status/1415265848198107138 | 21:54 |
bogan | "is this good, bad, or somewhere in between?" | 21:55 |
de-facto | oooff | 21:55 |
bogan | going through some breakthrough papers in a few days, i collected a bunch | 21:56 |
de-facto | i mean we should know how good current variants evolved in breaking through vaccine protection | 21:57 |
bogan | friendly arch-physicist keeps translating ilkka's tweets to you foreigners: https://twitter.com/zin_zah/status/1415224741112205323 | 21:58 |
de-facto | dependent on age, time since vaccination, type of vaccination, type of s-protein signature in vaccination | 21:58 |
de-facto | btw vaccine immunity is different from recovery immunity | 21:58 |
de-facto | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.01.21259833v1 | 21:59 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: COVID-19 vaccines dampen genomic diversity of SARS-CoV-2: Unvaccinated patients exhibit more antigenic mutational variance | medRxiv | 21:59 |
bogan | yeah, theres couple papers saying that. no more breakthrough mutations induced by vaccines. so it looks like its mostly just the number of infections in the world | 21:59 |
bogan | although theres still chance that long intervals might induce them - partly vaccinated | 22:00 |
de-facto | i suspect that treatment with convalescent plasma and monoclonal antibodies may have given rise to some of the fitness variants | 22:00 |
de-facto | i would like to know if there is a map or list for how common that type of treatment is worldwide | 22:01 |
bogan | moabs are expensive, like 500-2000 a pop | 22:01 |
bogan | convalescent, found not beneficial for awhile ago | 22:02 |
de-facto | becasue those antibodies are "static" there is no feedback loop, updating for new emerging mutants in the host, just that one type of monoclonal antibody or convalescent plasma, it will not react to any antigenic drift (as a "live" immune system would do) | 22:02 |
bogan | but might be because some of them have anti-interferon antibodies, so filtering them out, it might still be beneficial possibly | 22:02 |
bogan | meaning, not using from patients that have them, not actually filtering them out of plasma... | 22:03 |
de-facto | such treatments were shown to induce a lot of antigenic drift in cell cultures | 22:03 |
de-facto | e.g. take some cells, infect them with SARS-CoV-2, put a non-neutralizing amount of convalescent plasma on it, it will induce a lot of selection on the mutations, hence the observed antigentic drift for successful mutations will increase | 22:05 |
de-facto | i heard there are speculations that this might have been how the Kent variant emerged | 22:05 |
Arsanerit | What's the Kent variant? Alpha / B.1.1.7? | 22:06 |
nixonix | there was some new variant in uk, that has got some interest. not labelled as VOI yet tho | 22:06 |
nixonix | .title https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/new-covid-19-variant-may-have-emerged-in-north-east-surge-1094420 | 22:07 |
Brainstorm | nixonix: From inews.co.uk: New Covid-19 variant 'may have emerged in North-East surge' | 22:07 |
nixonix | the second one of those. the first one isnt new | 22:07 |
de-facto | Arsanerit, yes | 22:08 |
nixonix | the second should be 617.2 with one substitution missing | 22:08 |
de-facto | nixonix, i also still wonder how that gigantic surge in Netherlands could have happened, i hope they do sequence those | 22:08 |
nixonix | some superspreading with indian variant. but usually those sharp spikes are, that they had missed the beginning of the surge due to lack of testing | 22:10 |
IndoAnon | nixonix, is that you? | 22:11 |
nixonix | yeah | 22:11 |
IndoAnon | Damn, It has been long time | 22:12 |
nixonix | yeah, i checked couple other networks in between, but got bored to them too | 22:12 |
de-facto | .title https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001358/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_18.pdf "two new variants in monitoring have been designated (B.1.619 and B.1.629, Table 1)" | 22:15 |
Brainstorm | de-facto: From assets.publishing.service.gov.uk: SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation (Public Health England) | 22:15 |
IndoAnon | too bad | 22:15 |
nixonix | https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1415708645980090373 | 22:15 |
nixonix | if i got right information, this is the mutation 629 misses, compared to 617.2: | 22:16 |
nixonix | .title https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.17.448820v1 | 22:16 |
Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.biorxiv.org: SARS-CoV-2 spike P681R mutation enhances and accelerates viral fusion | bioRxiv | 22:16 |
nixonix | so is that good, bad, or something inbetween? | 22:17 |
Arsanerit | how can schools continue after summer? | 22:17 |
de-facto | only if spiking is prevented by R<1 | 22:17 |
IndoAnon | Arsanerit: I'm not optimistic about that | 22:18 |
nixonix | vaccines progressing in indonesia? | 22:19 |
nixonix | and no new eruptions? | 22:19 |
nixonix | (which are awesome, though) | 22:19 |
IndoAnon | nixonix: well | 22:21 |
nixonix | btw, how many politicians or health chiefs have recently said "we need to learn to live with this"? stuff like that they are currently saying in finland | 22:21 |
nixonix | was the first that dutch pm in the fall? | 22:21 |
nixonix | which didnt go well... | 22:21 |
IndoAnon | There's various version, ranging from boris, to bolsonaro | 22:22 |
IndoAnon | Oh wait, they're more or less the same | 22:22 |
nixonix | https://twitter.com/DrZoeHyde/status/1415367446744076290 | 22:24 |
Arsanerit | The Dutch PM said that during the first wave I think | 22:25 |
Arsanerit | "we will achieve herd immunity soon" or so | 22:25 |
IndoAnon | But, I deeply believe that politicians knew what happened when the first generation vaccine unable to provide adequate protection against infection | 22:25 |
nixonix | wasnt it, that indian variant wasnt going to be worse for those already in hospital (although around 2x more likely to get you in hospital)? if that table is true, ICU factor is higher than hospitalization | 22:25 |
IndoAnon | *what will happen | 22:26 |
nixonix | havent checked the latest uk data, maybe she has more recent information | 22:26 |
IndoAnon | indian variant is more contagious, higher lethality & chance of needing hospitalization and pre-symptomatic period, i think | 22:27 |
nixonix | "The study reveals that two doses of Sinovac, plus a booster dose of AstraZeneca, can prevent the Delta infection better than two doses of Sinovac, but still less than two doses of AstraZeneca, the doctor said. | 22:27 |
nixonix | .title https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thai-study-finds-2-doses-of-sinovac-cant-beat-delta-variant-astrazeneca-can/ | 22:28 |
Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.thaipbsworld.com: Thai study finds 2 doses of Sinovac can't beat Delta variant, AstraZeneca can | Thai PBS World : The latest Thai news in English, News Headlines, World News and News Broadcasts in both Thai and [...] | 22:28 |
nixonix | it seems those weaker vaccines generally have more trouble with immune evasion variants | 22:29 |
nixonix | like also az compared to pfizer or moderna | 22:29 |
IndoAnon | Personally, i think we should not continue the vaccination effort with 1st gen vaccine | 22:29 |
nixonix | pfizer and moderna still look good, at least against 617.2. SA and brazilian variants arent around much, information against them isnt that accurate | 22:30 |
IndoAnon | Those resource better pooled to combat current waves... And in EU area, I think there's chance of giga-wave where it started from autumn to mid-winter | 22:32 |
IndoAnon | *a chance | 22:33 |
nixonix | there are couple of new papers, krammer refered to them in this, about how neutralising and even binding antibodies supposedly correlate pretty well with protectivity | 22:36 |
nixonix | .title https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01432-4 | 22:36 |
Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.nature.com: A correlate of protection for SARS-CoV-2 vaccines is urgently needed | Nature Medicine | 22:36 |
nixonix | .title https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2021/06/a-half-dose-of-moderna-is-more-effective-than-a-full-dose-of-astrazeneca.html | 22:37 |
Brainstorm | nixonix: From marginalrevolution.com: A Half Dose of Moderna is More Effective Than a Full Dose of AstraZeneca - Marginal REVOLUTION | 22:37 |
nixonix | which made me think again, why not 3-4 microdoses to old or fragile, who coulndt perhaps stand side effects of normal doses? | 22:37 |
Arsanerit | people with more training and more access to research material have probably researched that question | 22:38 |
nixonix | maybe, but those fractional doses are very recent study | 22:39 |
Brainstorm | Updates for Algeria: +1109 cases (now 149906), +13 deaths (now 3895) since a day ago | 22:39 |
nixonix | as is the effect of the third normal dose (according to pfizer it gives 5-10x stronger ab response than the 2nd) | 22:39 |
IndoAnon | It's rather a mystery. Who could've done that? Well, someone should had discovered that during phase 3. Instead, we hear frightening news like "Dozens of old people died on nursing home after taking vaccine" | 22:39 |
nixonix | also, someone claimed his doctor thought, those with strong side effects from vaccine would probably have got severe symptoms from sars2 infection too | 22:40 |
nixonix | while i think its possible, that those that got strong side effects from the first dose, but not from second, might have previous exposure to the virus. asymptomatic infection or perhaps kinda almost infection, with possibly no ab response | 22:42 |
Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: Reports confirm pandemic-related drop in basic childhood vaccination: Lisa Schnirring | News Editor | CIDRAP News Jul 15, 2021 An estimated 23 million kids missed their basic vaccines in 2020. → https://is.gd/doYDVJ | 22:43 |
himesama | i like this idea --- o13:37 <nixonix> which made me think again, why not 3-4 microdoses to old or fragile, who coulndt perhaps stand side effects of normal doses? | 22:43 |
nixonix | yeah vaccine companies might have a good idea of titers with smaller dosages, but they cant recommend them because theyve been approved only with the doses that are in use | 22:43 |
IndoAnon | True, the stats of unvaccinated/vaccinated getting infected with varying degree of severity and several outcome could become biased, as most of vaccinated people who're experiencing strong side effects haven't recovered nor willing enough to go outside after experiencing the full on effect of spike protein therapy | 22:44 |
nixonix | they also were against those long intervals, like 12 weeks. at least their official stand | 22:44 |
LjL | hi hello i've been busy who should i scream at today | 22:46 |
IndoAnon | 12 weeks is the time time frame, where booster shot might be needed | 22:46 |
de-facto | btw if there is a certain threshold for successful priming for the amount of antigen, it certainly is much lower for booster or update shots, hence vaccinations probably could be multiplied by lowering the dose of boosting/updating | 22:46 |
de-facto | yet we need studies for that | 22:46 |
IndoAnon | Ugh | 22:47 |
de-facto | but the immune system probably only needs much less triggering for booster or update to achieve more or less the same effect as with higher doses, just because its already "on the hunt" for the antigen, hence only needs small provocation to react | 22:47 |
nixonix | ravi gupta is worried about ade-like effect when reinfected with different variant: https://twitter.com/GuptaR_lab/status/1414122576671084547 | 22:48 |
* IndoAnon trying to quote someone else | 22:48 | |
de-facto | Evening LjL hope you and your family are fine there | 22:49 |
nixonix | there are couple of very small studies with mortality a bit over 3%, but they are very small | 22:49 |
IndoAnon | >>330070452 >Why does /cvg/ think they know better than thousands of experienced immunologists with decades of experience >How do you guys cope with this? 99% of immunologists agree on the vaccine. They can't all be payed off or working for pharmaceutical companies. | 22:49 |
LjL | de-facto, a bit better than yesterday, it seems, but still not so great, what the ENT doctor did yesterday really made it worse for several hours... also ironically i'm dizzy myself today, i saw the table spinning for a moment while getting something from it | 22:50 |
LjL | right now my head feels confused, tinnitusy, and dizzy | 22:50 |
nixonix | indo, youve seen discussion around that canadian veterinarian viral immunologist, byram bridle? | 22:51 |
de-facto | glad to hear she feels a bit better today | 22:51 |
nixonix | why those scientist antivaxers always seem to be vetrinarians... | 22:51 |
* IndoAnon thinking said poster is foolish, as he thought both nixonix and de-facto make a good point about micro-dosing vaccine, just like eating supplements with short half life many times a day | 22:52 | |
LjL | sometimes when i read some things here i'm still kinda curious to look up what that weird "paper" against the vaccine as a way to end COVID was. it said things that were way over my head, but maybe food for thoughts for others, even if wrong | 22:52 |
de-facto | LjL, yeah i have that too, i think its kinda normal to some degree, temporary dizzyness etc often reported, afaik going away after some time | 22:52 |
nixonix | and those that want to just reopen fast, either veterinarians or pediatricians | 22:53 |
LjL | de-facto, it started for me when i started having tinnitus, became milder over time, but today it's wow. maybe it's because i've been sleeping on the couch to look after my mom, my neck vertebrae aren't *quite* aligned as they should... | 22:54 |
IndoAnon | nixonix, please wait while I check whether I have read such interview in the past | 22:54 |
de-facto | LjL, I recognized drinking (water) and moving around is somewhat helpful, sitting around not so much | 22:55 |
de-facto | idk why | 22:55 |
LjL | de-facto, do you remember/recognize the document i'm thinking about? a long PDF, i think, with much technical language, and graphs, and stuff, but *very* "non-mainstream", not generally anti-vax, but specifically warning that using a vaccine to end a pandemic would eventually make the virus worse for the younger and generally worse | 22:55 |
de-facto | yes i know what you are talking about | 22:56 |
de-facto | it was from that one guy | 22:56 |
LjL | well i had a walk before coming back and dining... | 22:56 |
LjL | de-facto, any clue how to find it again? even a keyword, anything you remember that could help me grep it from the logs? | 22:56 |
IndoAnon | I see, I think the appropriate context was about using spike protein instead of membrane proteins and (something) to incite immunity, nixonix | 22:57 |
de-facto | LjL i also think it might be worse after having some activity, such as biking, maybe it has to do with blood circulation while the vaccine is still in the system or such | 22:57 |
de-facto | i am not worried though, it will go away by itself | 22:57 |
nixonix | yeah, bridle had several arguments. none of them hold water, though | 22:58 |
nixonix | and he also has his own vaccine, that he got over 200k... | 22:58 |
nixonix | whole virus vaccine, which are more risky than just s-protein. using the same platform than his cancer vaccine (which apparently failed) | 22:59 |
IndoAnon | But, hadn't we talked about spike protein being able to cross BBB and do things like MOA-B mimicry and other dysregulation? | 22:59 |
IndoAnon | Well, that depends on whether the spike protein is able to travel beyond the injection area | 23:01 |
LjL | de-facto, i do have 110 as pulse while sitting down | 23:01 |
nixonix | moa-b? | 23:01 |
IndoAnon | My bad, MAO-B | 23:01 |
nixonix | did bridle mention something about it? and how that would be harmful? | 23:03 |
de-facto | LjL, yeah i have that too sometimes | 23:04 |
de-facto | oh i have an idea how to find that | 23:05 |
nixonix | mao-b seems to induce ROS. but i dont see how part of s-protein possibly mimicing it would be harmful. and if it was, theres not much s-protein in plasma, from mrna vaccines anyway | 23:06 |
nixonix | .title https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/gwinnett-county/he-wished-he-had-gotten-vaccine-local-man-battling-covid-19-icu-months/O5GSYB4CNVGS5M36L7MXUVGWK4/ | 23:11 |
Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.wsbtv.com: ‘He wished he had gotten the vaccine:’ Local man battling COVID-19 from ICU for months – WSB-TV Channel 2 - Atlanta | 23:11 |
IndoAnon | nixonix, i don't pay attention much to bridle arguments, because he sounds like brands of cheese. However, one of his assumption is that things could move from injection site, and one of it is nanolipid (https://web.archive.org/web/20210403075739/https://www.pmda.go.jp/drugs/2021/P20210212001/672212000_30300AMX00231_I100_1.pdf) | 23:11 |
de-facto | LjL, do you mean this one here? https://science.psu.edu/news/some-vaccines-support-evolution-more-virulent-viruses https://science.psu.edu/news/andrew-read-elected-fellow-royal-society https://pastebin.com/eqyYLaBv https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.1002198 (last about Marek's disease) | 23:12 |
LjL | de-facto, no, it was something recent and written specifically for covid, this is from 2015 | 23:13 |
nixonix | i have read that argument many times on finnish forums. people say, those vaccines are experimental, and they let us to be guinea pigs, and consider it themself after a few years | 23:13 |
de-facto | yeah i remember something about a guy claiming to be an immunologist or such, and having his own theory of all or such | 23:14 |
IndoAnon | nixonix, it's just 366 days since we discussed https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.16.20128660v2 | 23:14 |
de-facto | but how to find that again? hmm | 23:14 |
de-facto | like a presentaiton with lots of graphs or such, right LjL? | 23:15 |
nixonix | indo, ive seen that biodistribution study. they didnt measure s-protein, just radio labelled lipids in murines | 23:15 |
nixonix | actually amounts of s-proteins and s1:s have been measured with very senstitive SIMOA assay, and the amounts have been very small in plasma | 23:16 |
de-facto | btw above links all are about Mareks disease, not COVID | 23:16 |
LjL | de-facto, it wasn't a presentation strictly speaking (like not horizontal powerpoint), but similar | 23:17 |
IndoAnon | Anyway, chat about Spike protein freenode##coronavirus 15 Jul 2020 (365 days 23 hours ago) https://bpa.st/QGXA | 23:19 |
de-facto | LjL, i think i have found it | 23:22 |
de-facto | Geert Vanden Bossche | 23:23 |
LjL | name rings a bell | 23:23 |
LjL | de-facto, yes, i think that's it | 23:25 |
LjL | i remember the "NONCONFIDENTIAL - DO COPY - DO DISTRIBUTE" watermark :P | 23:25 |
de-facto | yep | 23:26 |
de-facto | idk quite crazy guy, interesting, but i would not bet on his theories | 23:27 |
LjL | de-facto, i'm not in the mood tonight but i want to read it again, i think since last time i looked at it, now i know some more of the terms and things it mentions | 23:28 |
LjL | last time i could guess from "contextual clues" that it was pseudoscience, but i also couldn't understand much of it | 23:29 |
de-facto | "Independent Vaccine Research Consultant" not Immunologist | 23:32 |
LjL | yeah i see from the logs we did a bit of sleuthing of who he was on linkedin etc | 23:33 |
specing | Lol de-facto | 23:34 |
specing | that sounds fake | 23:34 |
nixonix | yeah, that MAO-B topic felt familiar. so if true, sars2 could possibly affect to cells with mao2. and perhaps vaccines too, but with lesser effect | 23:35 |
de-facto | to be clear, i am not supporting any of his statements | 23:35 |
nixonix | mao2=maob | 23:35 |
nixonix | and what if it did? more ROS, oxidative stress and dna damage. which happens anyway, but then part of it would be because of that mimicry. wouldnt change a thing | 23:37 |
IndoAnon | nixonix: spike is spike. So, mRNA(spike) vaccine should have less damage than the real virus | 23:37 |
nixonix | sure, when those spikes that leak in vessels (minimal amounts most of time), are anchored in cell membranes, unlike spikes in virions | 23:38 |
nixonix | i mean vaccines leak to vessel (and then causing spikes in cells vaccine particles penetrate) | 23:39 |
IndoAnon | I'm sleepy, but I guess I should tell you that one of the important thing I learned this week was about how the virions exit the cells | 23:41 |
nixonix | exocytosis? | 23:44 |
nixonix | i think there are a few different ways | 23:45 |
IndoAnon | through cell's garbage pathway | 23:47 |
nixonix | that would be exocytosis then | 23:47 |
nixonix | damn i had a study with worrying title, but i find it.. i planned to link it here | 23:48 |
nixonix | i *cant | 23:48 |
nixonix | this got no comments earlier, what do you guys is the reason? https://twitter.com/itosettiMD_MBA/status/1413922415550291968 | 23:49 |
nixonix | btw we were wondering why S1 was found in plasma more than whole S-proteins, after mrna vaccination | 23:53 |
nixonix | possibly the reason could be that those cells surfaces proteins are recycled pretty actively, cleavaged by different enzymes | 23:53 |
nixonix | so they could split those S1 parts loose | 23:54 |
nixonix | then why didnt the find S2, those other parts when cytotoxic immune cells have destroyed the cells with those stubs left on surface? | 23:55 |
nixonix | their SIMOA assays didnt recognize them. they only bind to S1 and whole S-proteins, where the regions consisted partly S1 and partly S2 side, was said in the paper | 23:55 |
nixonix | the mystery solved, perhaps | 23:56 |
de-facto | nixonix, that was my suspicion back then, something separating S1 from S2 | 23:58 |
nixonix | ah, i just noticed vanden bossche mentioned above. i read about him a week ago | 23:58 |
Generated by irclog2html.py 2.17.0 by Marius Gedminas - find it at https://mg.pov.lt/irclog2html/!