| nixonix | he had some strange ideas about vaccines. i also had quick look at some of his texts, and to me lots of it didnt make sense | 00:00 |
|---|---|---|
| nixonix | while im not expert, i think he made them up | 00:00 |
| de-facto | nixonix, re Israel stats, maybe the vaccinated (being the majority) also are less careful in distancing? | 00:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: WHO Chief: China Not Sharing Critical Data In Covid Origins Probe → https://is.gd/ZhDDrM | 00:06 |
| nixonix | yeah. and allowed in bars and events. for those that are not, are required negative tests, which is tiresome to keep doing (and possibly you have to pay for it) | 00:08 |
| nixonix | also those that didnt get the shot, are more likely to have had the infection already, probably | 00:09 |
| nixonix | still are those enough? that there isnt really difference between the groups? | 00:09 |
| nixonix | small samples, but the trend is in all the age groups | 00:09 |
| de-facto | definitely the knowledge of being vaccinated changes the behavior and also the regulations, so containment is not the same for those two groups | 00:10 |
| nixonix | some of them could be breakthroughs, but more likely for elder groups that got the vaccine early | 00:11 |
| de-facto | we definitely need to monitor breakthrough cases, another reason why i just dont understand government deciding vaccinated dont need tests anymore | 00:12 |
| de-facto | but maybe i dont need to understand politicians, they have proven many times how stupid they act | 00:12 |
| de-facto | btw interestingly in the vaccination center when i received my booster, they explicitly told me to continue distancing and wearing masks | 00:14 |
| de-facto | i was positively surprised by taht | 00:14 |
| nixonix | people need some relief from restrictions as a reward, to increase the popularity to get vaxxed | 00:16 |
| de-facto | not only do we need to monitor breakthrough cases, also the secondary attack rates they cause (hence how infecitous they are), sequence their variants, document disease symptoms and severity, compare to non-vaccinated (as long as that is still possible) | 00:16 |
| nixonix | after that macrons announcement, 1.3M or so registered to get vaxxed in less than day | 00:16 |
| de-facto | i disagree, vaccinated should be treated like non-vaccinated in terms of the assumption of being a potential carrier | 00:17 |
| specing | de-facto: there's currently no consensus on whether or not vaccinated people can spread the virus | 00:18 |
| specing | de-facto: quite surprising, given that we've had vaccines for a year now and everyone's eyes are on it | 00:18 |
| de-facto | yeah, i would assume they do spread it, but dont get sick very often | 00:18 |
| specing | ah, about efficiency | 00:18 |
| specing | I was looking for an explanation of efficiency and finaly found it on wikipedia pages | 00:18 |
| de-facto | efficacy | 00:19 |
| specing | Still haven't found a good explanation on the difference of 'efficacy' to 'efficiency' | 00:19 |
| de-facto | VE = 1 - RR = 1 - ARU / ARV = (ARV - ARU) / ARU | 00:19 |
| specing | oh, also 'effectiveness' | 00:19 |
| specing | gov really enjoys using these terms without explaining them | 00:20 |
| specing | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxford%E2%80%93AstraZeneca_COVID-19_vaccine#Effectiveness | 00:20 |
| pwr22 | LjL, de-facto: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57854999 | 00:21 |
| pwr22 | Lots of isolation pings this week | 00:21 |
| de-facto | correction: VE = 1 - RR = 1 - ARV / ARU = (ARU - ARV) / ARU with ARV = breakthrough / vaccinated and ARU = cases / unvaccinated | 00:21 |
| specing | de-facto: what are those abbreviations? | 00:21 |
| de-facto | RR = risk ratio, VE = vaccine efficacy | 00:22 |
| de-facto | ARV = attack rate vaccinated, ARU = attack rate unvaccinated | 00:23 |
| pwr22 | *not this week, a couple weeks back | 00:23 |
| de-facto | pwr22, nice table | 00:23 |
| specing | attack rate... wtf | 00:24 |
| de-facto | hmm ALpha vs Delta: AZ protects better against infection with alpha, but better against hospitalization with Delta | 00:24 |
| de-facto | weird | 00:25 |
| specing | "if you survived AZ you'll survive everything! " :D | 00:25 |
| de-facto | specing, meaning the rate of infections occurring in a specific group, hence here the ratio of infections in either vaccinated or non-vacccinated group | 00:25 |
| nixonix | ah i found the one with worrying title. but couple other ones before that | 00:26 |
| nixonix | apparently in danish study, only 80.5% protection from reinfection, and 47.1% if over 65yo | 00:27 |
| nixonix | timescale, idk, it was mentioned in another paper | 00:27 |
| nixonix | reasons believed to be lots of asymptomatic or mild cases, that dont provide strong or lasting immunity | 00:27 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00662-0/fulltext | 00:28 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.thelancet.com: Risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection after natural infection - The Lancet | 00:28 |
| nixonix | i have lots of papers to go through about reinfections, but those that ive seen, have had very different results | 00:28 |
| nixonix | like that italian study vs that uk study, i linked here before | 00:29 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Chad: +4 cases (now 4959) since a day ago | 00:31 |
| de-facto | yes this is a very important topic, we need to look into more details about reinfections and breakthrough | 00:31 |
| nixonix | this had interesting stuff, that devine's rabbit experiments. with bacteria, but anyway: | 00:32 |
| nixonix | .title https://publicism.info/history/influenza/16.html | 00:32 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From publicism.info: Chapter 15 - IT BEGINS - The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Deadliest Plague in History - John M. Barry | 00:32 |
| nixonix | (i found the whole book, but im not sure if some or lots of it was just made up, as i didnt find any information on that greenland ship epidemic, with googling, what would have interested me) | 00:33 |
| nixonix | it looks like those that have had natural infection, should get one dose pretty soon. it gives them strong immunity, just one dose | 00:34 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.03.21256520v1.full | 00:35 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.medrxiv.org: The BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 reprograms both adaptive and innate immune responses | medRxiv | 00:35 |
| nixonix | but is that good or bad, or somewhere inbetween? | 00:35 |
| nixonix | i cant be sure, but i think despite that it sounds very worrying, its somewhere inbetween | 00:36 |
| nixonix | because that subject isnt well known. that might happen with most if not all viral infections and vaccinations | 00:36 |
| nixonix | if you remember from last summer, i wrote that non-adaptive immune response is actually adaptive too, which isnt well known, and pretty recent knowledge | 00:37 |
| de-facto | well how about comparing that immune response to one with real pathogen? | 00:37 |
| de-facto | maybe its just temporarily dedicating immune system resources towards the current challenge, hence eliminating the s-protein or pathogen? | 00:38 |
| nixonix | i havent seen anything about sars2, does it happen with it too? | 00:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Lancet (Online): [Correspondence] Spike-antibody waning after second dose of BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1: Vaccines based on the spike glycoprotein of SARS-CoV-2 are being rolled out globally to control transmission and limit morbidity and mortality due to COVID-19. Current evidence indicates strong immunogenicity and high short-term efficacy for [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/v4YYwS | 00:38 |
| nixonix | my guess is, it does | 00:38 |
| de-facto | idk i am just asking if its not just the "natural way" of the immune response anyhow | 00:38 |
| nixonix | i think its possible, that all viral infections modify innate immune response. while its possible, that some dont do that much, and some do that a lot | 00:39 |
| nixonix | and the same could be with different vaccines. thats probably unknown area mostly | 00:39 |
| nixonix | tweet some immunologist and ask | 00:39 |
| de-facto | yeah and quite differently, e.g. HIV, EBV, MEV, CoVs etc | 00:40 |
| de-facto | arms race, pathogen vs immune system army | 00:40 |
| nixonix | only two autopsies ever done for mers victims. they dont know did it affect their brain | 00:41 |
| nixonix | affected | 00:41 |
| nixonix | did you guys notice that twitter thread about neurological conference i pasted when i came here today? | 00:41 |
| nixonix | well lets repaste, ljl you want to see this too https://twitter.com/ahandvanish/status/1415318204902170629 | 00:42 |
| nixonix | .title https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciab611/6315216 | 00:44 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From academic.oup.com: Persistent symptoms in adult patients one year after COVID-19: a prospective cohort study | Clinical Infectious Diseases | Oxford Academic | 00:45 |
| nixonix | translate this https://www.utu.fi/fi/ajankohtaista/uutinen/covid-19-on-myos-merkittava-aivosairaus | 00:45 |
| nixonix | We excluded two individuals with shorter dose intervals of 21–28 days (and assumed those missing first dose date had a longer dose interval) as this has been demonstrated (in part, through preliminary data) to be less immunogenic than longer intervals for both ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 | 00:49 |
| nixonix | so i guess they have evidence longer interval is better for pfizer too then | 00:49 |
| nixonix | source unconfirmed, but after 8 weeks there should be no benefit - i think this was for pfizer or mrna vaccines. should try to confirm some day | 00:50 |
| de-facto | btw what do you think about the following theory: naive immune response for antigenic challenge will result in a highly optimized antibody production highly optimized on antigenic affinity (to maximize neutralization likelihood) | 00:54 |
| de-facto | now on a second vaccination with exactly the same antigen (same s-protein version, e.g. wuhan) the immune system would assume there is another ongoing infection with exactly the same antigen, hence its initial (highly optimized on affinity) response got a breakthrough | 00:56 |
| de-facto | hence the immune response to the second vaccination with same antigen will do both, rise antibodies, but also "broaden" the diversity of antigenic binding, hence make it less specific, rising the likelihood that it also binds slightly changed antigens (such as variants) | 00:57 |
| de-facto | in short: primer neutralizes exactly the antigen, booster also some variants of it | 00:59 |
| nixonix | b-cells in germinal centers keep improving their antibodies through months with somatic hypermutations | 00:59 |
| nixonix | but when not all neutralising antibodies are not found from all immunized persons | 00:59 |
| nixonix | probably the second exposure will widen the selection | 00:59 |
| nixonix | but how about the variant, like that guptas tweet, could it be that antibody to the epitope that has changed now blocks the neutralising new antibody? | 01:00 |
| nixonix | while not neutralising it, being just binding antibody | 01:01 |
| de-facto | such a widening of selection makes sense from an evolutionary perspective, immune system adapting to the new condition that it could not prevent a second infection (simulated and forced onto the immune system by booster vaccination) | 01:04 |
| de-facto | i wonder how that widening selection and broadening variety in antibody binding affinity would evolve with repeated challenge (vaccinaiton) with exactly the same antigen | 01:05 |
| de-facto | e.g. primer, booster, update 1, update 2, ... , update N, ... | 01:06 |
| nixonix | it happens in germinal centers even without re-exposure | 01:06 |
| de-facto | surely it would be some kind of saturation in variety, but how many challenges would be required to almost reach the asymptotic maximum, e.g. lets say 90% of it or such? | 01:07 |
| nixonix | (but possibly only those b-cells in germinal centers, not sure if continually secreted or those in bone marrow) | 01:07 |
| nixonix | theres only limited number of epitopes that antibodies could neutralize the virus, but huge number of antibodies to the same epitope | 01:08 |
| nixonix | then there is partially overlapping epitopes, which might neutralize, or then they could block neutralising antibodies | 01:08 |
| nixonix | so theres no additional benefit necessarily for 1000 different nabs vs 10 different, if those 10 bind strongly to the most important epitopes (numbers from hat) | 01:10 |
| de-facto | well but now with antigenic drift, what about epitopes that are to appear in future variants? | 01:11 |
| nixonix | viral evolution probably tries to modify them so, that antibodies to the old variant would affect as less as possible | 01:12 |
| de-facto | would it not be a benefit if antibodies were more like a shotgun spread instead of a sniper shot onto the antigenic surface epitopes? | 01:12 |
| dTal | also isn't there than immune capture thingy | 01:13 |
| nixonix | then those conserved but still neutralising epitopes (or abs to then neutralising), are there such, that using only them would work? or are they achievable, and for enough time when trimeres keep vibrating and changhing their conformation, so that binding to them is succefful often enough? | 01:14 |
| de-facto | like if antigenic drift evades affinitty for one type of antibody, if encircled by enough variety of antibodies, would just an evasion not just drive it "into the arms" of another antibody population that now increases affinity for that specific antigenic drift path? | 01:14 |
| dTal | first exposure "locks in" an immune response to a stable local mimimum, I forget what it's called | 01:14 |
| nixonix | and how about abs against n-protein? how they work anyway? they cant possibly prevent binding and fusion, right? so they would affect to replication i suppose | 01:15 |
| dTal | it's conceivable that a bad first vaccination can render future jabs ineffective | 01:15 |
| nixonix | interesting, tell me if you remember the term or source | 01:15 |
| nixonix | possibly if there are different b-cells and their abs to the same epitope, that some of them would still bind to mutation, while some wouldnt. but im just guessing here | 01:18 |
| nixonix | unless theres that effect dtal mentioned, preventing that to be | 01:18 |
| dTal | "original antigenic sin" | 01:19 |
| Brainstorm | New from Bloom Lab: @fredhutch: RT by @jbloom_lab: .@tylernstarr from the @jbloom_lab set out to shed light on a problem facing antibody treatments for #COVID19. Some variants of #SARSCoV2 have acquired mutations that enable the virus to escape the antibodies’ grasp. Read more from @NaturePortfolio: https://go.nature.com/3z0Q4uX → https://is.gd/wLPmXv | 01:19 |
| nixonix | yeah, dengue mentioned with it. so was the dengvaxia problem that, instead of some type of ADE? | 01:22 |
| nixonix | and also those problems with infection of different dengue types. indo should prob know | 01:22 |
| nixonix | anyways, that didnt happen that often with dengue, and mostly with small kids. at least with dengvaxia | 01:23 |
| nixonix | like 10% of under 9yo or something if i recall | 01:24 |
| nixonix | It is not clear why the vaccinated seronegative population have more serious adverse outcomes. A plausible hypothesis is the phenomenon of antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE).[12] American virologist Scott Halstead was one of the first researchers to identify the ADE phenomenon | 01:26 |
| nixonix | so it seems these are hard to find out | 01:26 |
| nixonix | impact of antigenic sin on protection has not been well established, and appears to differ with each infectious agent vaccine, geographic location, and age.[6] Researchers found reduced antibody responses to the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccine in individuals who had been vaccinated against the seasonal A/Brisbane/59/2007 (H1N1) within the | 01:28 |
| nixonix | previous three months | 01:28 |
| nixonix | basically they dont know if it was ade or oas, or both perhaps | 01:32 |
| nixonix | with dengvaxia | 01:32 |
| nixonix | maybe it was neither, but altered innate immune response.. | 01:33 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Vietnam: +3416 cases (now 40850), +69 deaths (now 207) since 21 hours ago — Fr. Polynesia: +16 cases (now 19058) since 2 days ago | 01:33 |
| himesama | could you define bad here? 16:15 <dTal> it's conceivable that a bad first vaccination can render future jabs ineffective | 01:58 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid: Be cautious as England lockdown ends, urges Whitty: It comes as the UK recorded nearly 50,000 new cases on Thursday - the highest number since January. → https://is.gd/5oEKfB | 02:00 |
| himesama | fwiw idk in this context but in ordinary english efficacy is whether something worked. efficiency is typically whether it worked like a car with more miles per gallon. 15:19 <specing> Still haven't found a good explanation on the difference of 'efficacy' to 'efficiency' | 02:03 |
| dTal | himesama: only circularly | 02:03 |
| dTal | "bad" meaning, rendering future vaccinations ineffective | 02:03 |
| himesama | ok so s/bad/some? | 02:03 |
| specing | himesama: oh. And effectiveness? | 02:05 |
| himesama | you left out effectual :) | 02:07 |
| himesama | effectiveness is whether it did the job well (i.e. in science it would presumably refer to effect size etc.) | 02:09 |
| himesama | effectual -- did it do it. effectiveness -- did it do it well. efficient -- did it do it non-wastefully. | 02:10 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Kenya: +837 cases (now 191020), +9 deaths (now 3746) since a day ago — Isle of Man: +116 cases (now 1907) since a day ago | 02:10 |
| toomad[m] | woodhardigan LjL You might consider to do some of the tests showed in the pic below. The most importants are histamine in urine (24 hours collection), Protein S100B, HSP (Heat Shock Protein) 27 and 70 and 0-myelin antibodies. Additionally, I would add neuron specific enolase (NSE), fractionated porfirins (blood and/or urine), blood fractionated catecolamines (orthostatic and decubitus), vasopresin and mycotoxins urine test. | 02:10 |
| himesama | effectual can also be capability thereof | 02:10 |
| himesama | effectual is if it accomplished the task i think | 02:11 |
| * toomad[m] uploaded an image: (573KiB) < https://libera.ems.host/_matrix/media/r0/download/matrix.org/HWbHiVfFoYITUXypmoakpCoF/EHSBelpommePanel092516LG.jpg > | 02:11 | |
| himesama | (oops i mean -effectual- +efficaciousness etc+ can also be capability thereof) | 02:13 |
| himesama | do pathogens adapt to look like human tissue and what does the immune system do to avoid autoimmune... oh never mind it uses mhc presumably. do any pathogens try to mimic that? | 02:16 |
| himesama | or is that combinatorically infeasible? | 02:16 |
| woodhardigan[m] | toomad: Thanks for the response. That's actually very impressive! As of now my pain has moved from the stomach, to the spleen region, more on the rib. It's fading away gradually and I believe (hopefully) I might have another break on the next weeks/months. Doing another blood count exam on Saturday. But my Doctor are pretty sure they will come clean as usual. Gonna try to request the tests mentioned! | 02:36 |
| himesama | toomad[m]: wow what a list. why mycotoxins? and is that accurate? | 02:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from Francois Balloux: @BallouxFrancois: We're entering an interesting stage of the pandemic, with most of Europe and the US well advanced into an 'endemic transition'. I see light at the end of the pandemic tunnel, that some may choose to dismiss. I predict that discussions will harden even more over the coming months. → https://is.gd/avtuBt | 02:53 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Botswana: +5980 cases (now 86133), +21 deaths (now 1274) since 2 days ago — Netherlands: +8139 cases (now 1.8 million), +2 deaths (now 17914) since 21 hours ago — Kazakhstan: +2689 cases (now 498524) since 21 hours ago — France: +10 deaths (now 111525) since 21 hours ago | 03:00 |
| LjL | any clue if vaccines could explain leukocytes in urine after up a week or so? | 03:28 |
| LjL | "asking for a friend" | 03:28 |
| woodhardigan[m] | Peter I was gonna ask you yesterday. Would you know any Doctor specialised on post-covid (if there's such thing), based in the UK to recommend? One that does remote consultations? | 03:41 |
| himesama | there are 89 ones being set up in the uk. i would suggest caution. | 03:58 |
| himesama | some (idk if those 89 include them or not) are designed around the idea that you are not sick | 03:59 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for British Virgin Islands: +4 deaths (now 8) since 22 hours ago | 04:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR: Canada Is Moving Toward Admitting Vaccinated Americans: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau held out the prospect that Canada could admit fully vaccinated Americans in mid-August and fully vaccinated travelers from all countries by early September. → https://is.gd/lf5Q9T | 04:37 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Puerto Rico: +110 cases (now 123775), +1 deaths (now 2560) since 21 hours ago — Iceland: +43 cases (now 6718) since 7 days ago | 05:04 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Thailand: +9692 cases (now 381907), +67 deaths (now 3099) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +10883 cases (now 1.8 million), +3 deaths (now 17915) since 23 hours ago — France: +14 deaths (now 111529) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +481 cases (now 1.4 million) since 23 hours ago | 05:29 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +1453 cases (now 1.1 million), +1 deaths (now 25208) since 22 hours ago | 06:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Canada may allow fully vaccinated travellers by early September – Trudeau → https://is.gd/Fb5sIj | 06:30 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Mexico: +12821 cases (now 2.6 million), +233 deaths (now 235740) since a day ago | 06:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: End of Covid-19 curbs should come with caution, England’s chief medical officer says → https://is.gd/NKj5IM | 06:40 |
| himesama | https://www.medicaldevice-network.com/features/long-covid-blood-test/ | 06:52 |
| himesama | nightmare unless this means something different: "It=E2=80=99s not yet clear how prevalent long Covid is among fully or partially vaccinated individuals." | 06:54 |
| himesama | the idea being that the uk could be brewing lc even with vaccination, unclear if this means among vaccinated themselves | 06:54 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: BioNTech Covid-19 shot produces 10 times more antibodies than Sinovac, study finds → https://is.gd/h2PWh1 | 07:32 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for England, United Kingdom: +43861 cases (now 4.6 million), +44 deaths (now 113062) since a day ago — Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: +6386 cases (now 992619), +177 deaths (now 57252) since a day ago — Mexico City, Mexico: +4400 cases (now 722391), +25 deaths (now 35049) since a day ago — Missouri, United States: +2814 cases (now 647237), +10 deaths (now 9882) since a day ago | 07:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Slovakia thanks Taiwan for face masks with 10,000 vaccine dose pledge → https://is.gd/wTvPPW | 08:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: White House slams Facebook as conduit for Covid-19 misinformation → https://is.gd/RUFWf3 | 08:14 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for India: +38949 cases (now 31.0 million), +494 deaths (now 412361) since 15 hours ago | 08:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | July 16, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://is.gd/q4wDlm | 09:06 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Chilean Sinovac trial leaders recommend third dose of COVID-19 vaccine → https://is.gd/w1tOvs | 09:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from WHO Euro: Varied impact of COVID-19 on routine immunization in the European Region: The WHO European Region saw a 1% decrease in routine immunization coverage, from 95% in 2019 to 94% in 2020 (the third dose of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-containing vaccine (DTP3) is used as a tracer indicator), according to WHO/United Nations Children’s [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/2dnzjs | 09:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Destination of the week: Visiting Maldives again: Remember these Covid guidelines before planning a trip → https://is.gd/QPWLi5 | 10:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: COVID-19: WHO calls for more transparency from China about virus origins - as head says 'lab accidents happen' → https://is.gd/OGmEtU | 10:30 |
| * pwr22 uploaded an image: (31KiB) < https://libera.ems.host/_matrix/media/r0/download/shortestpath.dev/cnAFDeAvlerLJbxLqbyryKzN/image.png > | 10:30 | |
| pwr22 | Looks like "Operation: Roaring Boris" is going ahead at pace | 10:31 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: EU left behind as US pushes ‘vaccine diplomacy’ in Southeast Asia → https://is.gd/JURZmO | 11:02 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Japan: +4201 cases (now 831193), +43 deaths (now 15014) since 22 hours ago — Germany: +1409 cases (now 3.8 million) since 22 hours ago | 11:05 |
| Brainstorm | New from ProPublica: A Postal Worker Begged for Stronger COVID-19 Protections. She Ended Up Spending Six Weeks in the Hospital.: by Maryam Jameel ] ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up to receive our biggest stories as soon as they’re published. Last November, just as Minnesota was suffering through a [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/AjzfnV | 11:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Health: Covid-19: Why pregnant women should get vaccinated, according to the Health Ministry → https://is.gd/HQtBEl | 11:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Ugandan athlete reported missing in Japan after skipping COVID test ahead of Tokyo Olympics → https://is.gd/mFkogg | 11:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: Republican lawmakers push to cast vaccine refusal as a civil rights issue | 16JUL21 → https://is.gd/dRf0sU | 12:37 |
| Raf[m] | >any clue if vaccines could explain leukocytes in urine after up a week or so? | 12:46 |
| Raf[m] | Could be normal, some research showed isolation of stem cells from urine. https://stemcellres.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13287-018-0932-z | 12:46 |
| Raf[m] | * >any clue if vaccines could explain leukocytes in urine after up a week or so? | 12:47 |
| Raf[m] | Could be normal, some research showed isolation of stem cells from urine. https://stemcellres.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13287-018-0932-z | 12:47 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): nCoV: State vaccination hubs should administer AstraZeneca and boost uptake on weekends, Scott Morrison says | 16JUL21 → https://is.gd/gUydYh | 12:48 |
| Raf[m] | LjL ^ | 12:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from Francois Balloux: @BallouxFrancois: R to @BallouxFrancois: The risk of causing major societal trauma with empty promises weighted on my mind since March 2020. I've been accused of being a defeatist, a denialist, and worse. I just felt from the beginning there was no easy fix, no silver bullet to the pandemic.3/ → https://is.gd/R15fPd | 12:58 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Nepal: +2006 cases (now 664576), +43 deaths (now 9506) since 22 hours ago | 13:09 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: Covid infections are high and rising around the UK: Cases have risen again in many regions, data reveals, ahead of England dropping most Covid rules on Monday. → https://is.gd/KCyTbP | 13:19 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Libya: +2866 cases (now 217434), +4 deaths (now 3253) since a day ago — Senegal: +963 cases (now 49008) since 22 hours ago — Malta: +235 cases (now 32069) since 23 hours ago | 13:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from BMJ: Covid-19: Indonesia becomes Asia’s new pandemic epicentre as delta variant spreads: The delta variant of covid-19 is causing an escalating crisis in Indonesia, two months after it swept through India. Indonesia’s case numbers have risen sharply for the past month and are continuing... → https://is.gd/QBgKI5 | 13:39 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Fiji: +1405 cases (now 15291), +6 deaths (now 80) since a day ago | 13:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Health: Kim Kardashian ‘definitely had agoraphobia’ after Paris robbery, which worsened in quarantine → https://is.gd/wQhpO1 | 14:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: ‘We didn’t want to be in the news’: Pastor pleas for ‘mercy’ after 125 in his ‘masks optional’ summer camp get Covid → https://is.gd/Q2Q1DC | 14:32 |
| specing | they should pray harder | 14:34 |
| specing | maybe that'll help | 14:34 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belarus: +1276 cases (now 432388), +9 deaths (now 3306) since 22 hours ago | 14:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Just 12 People Are Behind Most Vaccine Hoaxes On Social Media, Research Shows → https://is.gd/rP3u5z | 15:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from EMA: What's new: SMOPs: Summary of opinion: Suvaxyn CSF Marker,classical swine fever vaccine (live recombinant), 15/07/2021, Positive → https://is.gd/lPLTa1 | 15:15 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Gibraltar: +37 cases (now 4555) since a day ago | 15:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: CNN: Covid cases are rising in every state → https://is.gd/tYZKHl | 15:46 |
| zutt | %cases uk | 15:48 |
| Brainstorm | zutt: In United Kingdom, there have been 5.3 million confirmed cases (8.0% of the population) and 128728 deaths (2.4% of cases) as of 8 hours ago. 229.1 million tests were performed (2.3% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 15:48 |
| zutt | 140k people watching F1 races on-site in UK at the moment.. | 15:48 |
| joerg | >>Kimberly Noel Kardashian West[3][4] (born October 21, 1980) is an American media personality, socialite, model, businesswoman, producer, and actress.<< Should I feel worried I had to look up wikipedia to know who that is? ((re: <Brainstorm> New from The Indian Express (Health): Health: Kim Kardashian ‘definitely had agoraphobia’ )) | 15:50 |
| joerg | zutt: Borris finally found back to his original mindset, maybe even facing the same consequences a second time | 15:54 |
| zutt | yeah, idk.. seems hopeless | 15:56 |
| zutt | mindset seems to be "this is genius, we're building immunity as not many are dying!" | 15:56 |
| zutt | meanwhile the people traveling back to their countries after the races, or locals traveling aboard for some other reason keep spreading more and more | 15:56 |
| zutt | i'm just being annoyed by things I can't affect -.-, sorry | 15:58 |
| joerg | still not there yet (and I'm happy about that) >> [Sunday, 22 March 2020] [17:26:11 CET] <DocScrutinizer> tomorrow's headlines today: "Boris Johnson killed half a million - Trump beats him by factor 20" << | 15:59 |
| de-facto | joerg, we are already at R~1.33 in .de | 16:03 |
| joerg | de-facto: yeah, that faint hope R_t would stabilize was a delusuion | 16:04 |
| joerg | when Delta fired all it's gunpower, they seem more than capable to find other means to drive R_t higher and higher | 16:05 |
| joerg | but we got https://twitter.com/SoerenLorensen/status/1415417178132783105 now, who cares about covid | 16:07 |
| de-facto | yeah i am not sure what they are after there, surely high incidence does not let their management appear in good light at the time of elections | 16:07 |
| joerg | >>Der Rhein kommt aus einem Labor in der Schweiz! << :thumbs-up: | 16:08 |
| joerg | de-facto: they agreed on high incidences being moot. Problem solved. >>Die Pegelstände sollten auch nicht das einzige Merkmal sein, nach dem wir die Lage beurteilen. Wir sollten auch schauen, wie nass die Dachbalken sind.<< | 16:10 |
| joerg | we're joining in the brit way, just they didn't tell their people yet here | 16:12 |
| zutt | lol :P | 16:13 |
| joerg | even merkel said >>with a lot of vaccinations, a 7d incidence of 100 will not be the threshold in future<< -- DAMN RIGHT! it should be 100 * (100% - $percentagenumber_vaccinated ) | 16:16 |
| joerg | if anything. By definition it would still be 50/100k7d no matter if those 100k are vaccinated or not, the health office T&C scouts can handle 50, that was the goal | 16:17 |
| joerg | we got 2 scouts per 100k residents and those 2 scouts are supposed to be able to track&contain a 50 cases per week | 16:18 |
| joerg | no idea when we upgraded that to 4 scouts / 100k, so they could handle 100 instead of 50 | 16:20 |
| joerg | or did they get more efficient, with our great digital tools we got meanwhile? ROTFL | 16:20 |
| de-facto | they have ONE job: R<1. | 16:20 |
| pwr22 | They have R<1 job 😛 | 16:21 |
| joerg | that'sthe job of the politicians which didn't hear of that yet. The T&C scouts have the job to track and contain each and every infection chain | 16:27 |
| joerg | I didn't hear of any new more efficient approach | 16:28 |
| Brainstorm | New from Emma Hodcroft: @firefoxx66: R to @firefoxx66: Yes, there are legitimate debates to be had around who should isolate at all if the govt "strategy" is not to actively limit transmissions - but even with a fairly strict isolation definition, *with large case numbers will come large numbers of isolations & further cases.*4/5 → https://is.gd/omeed1 | 16:29 |
| de-facto | then we need a lockdown as result to be unable to implement any smarter containment that works. | 16:29 |
| de-facto | surely that is a statement about failure of management of the cirisis, hence they wont do that before elections | 16:30 |
| joerg | maybe it would suffice to not already allow night clubs, football, concerts, parties, whatnot else. I wouldn't call this a lockdown | 16:31 |
| de-facto | whatever it takes to ensure R<1, at all costs | 16:32 |
| de-facto | if they wnat to minimize costs, well it may let their management appear in better light of course | 16:32 |
| joerg | and yes, we should forbid holiday travel especially by flight | 16:32 |
| de-facto | thats what i always kept saying, but oh well | 16:32 |
| joerg | whatever we do, we should do things to get R *down*, not things that will make it go *up* further. Alas the latter is exactly what we see getting done every day now | 16:33 |
| de-facto | highest costs would be a lockdown, but if they fail to contain it with other measures it will be required at some point to force R<¹ | 16:35 |
| de-facto | highest costs would be a lockdown, but if they fail to contain it with other measures it will be required at some point to force R<1 | 16:35 |
| de-facto | just imagine, they want to reopen schools after summer holidays, how will it appear if they cant do that because incidence is on steep rise, doubling each week? | 16:39 |
| joerg | wrong controller ruleset - the observed value was 7d-incidences while it always whould have been R_t. Now we see this results in abssolutely dramatically incorrect regulation process as we adjust the process (the pandemic) to go up now since we are at low incidences, when we should ramp up all NPI since we are at a R_t>>1 | 16:41 |
| joerg | and when I wrote >>WAS 7d-incidences<< I refer to that >>we should not look at incidences anymore, since we got so many vaccinated people already<< bullshit, which also answers your question above: they will ignore any >>incidence is on steep rise<< | 16:43 |
| de-facto | yeah of course R>1 is a metric for how far out of control the containment is, it does not matter that absolute numbers are still "comparably low" because with R>>1 they quickly will rise, instead we should act IMMEDIATELY meaning right NOW, just because we might still have a chance to regain control and wrestle it down relatively quickly | 16:43 |
| de-facto | later on it will be exponentially more expensive to achieve remission to comparable incidence | 16:43 |
| joerg | :nod: | 16:44 |
| joerg | we not gonna hear much of corona in news for next 7 days, thanks to flood. In 7 days we'll face a incidence of maybe 20 and nobody will care | 16:47 |
| joerg | end of month we might already hit the 100 again | 16:48 |
| joerg | and my personal bet is we won't see any action taken even then | 16:48 |
| joerg | Merkel said it: 100 is no longer relevant | 16:48 |
| joerg | "netherlands - where is that, what happened there? How's that relevant for us?" | 16:49 |
| Brainstorm | New from WHO Euro: WHO/Europe shows high rates of COVID-19 vaccination in prisons: Prisons can be high-risk environments for the transmission of COVID-19. People in prisons live in settings that are often overcrowded and in close proximity and thus may act as a source of infection, amplification and spreading of infectious diseases within and beyond prisons. → https://is.gd/k2jIrq | 16:50 |
| de-facto | she also said high incidence means breeding evasive mutants | 16:52 |
| de-facto | and she said vaccinations will not be mandatory | 16:53 |
| joerg | now they're spreading the somewhat fake news that nobody wants to get vaccinated any more. Prolly to justify the "let go" policy they follow now. I still see a >8000 jabs deployed yesterday here in my town's vax centers, while at peak times it been 12000 - not exactly "nobody want it anymore" eh? | 16:57 |
| joerg | also the "so many don't show up to their 2nd jab appointment" news was fake | 16:59 |
| Brainstorm | New from Shane Crotty: @profshanecrotty: “I see no sign that boosters are needed imminently for healthy adults,” Crotty said. “Pretty much everything on the vaccine side has been encouraging.”https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-15/relax-about-booster-shots-for-now-scientists-tell-anxious-u-s → https://is.gd/VS9ynL | 17:00 |
| joerg | yeah, 6 months minimum, modulo escape variants | 17:15 |
| joerg | for healthy adults rather 12 months min | 17:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Friday 16 July 2021 Update: submitted by /u/HippolasCage to r/CoronavirusUK → https://is.gd/7iq2cm | 17:22 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Bangladesh: +12148 cases (now 1.1 million), +187 deaths (now 17465) since a day ago | 17:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid: UK daily cases pass 50,000 for first time since January → https://is.gd/NO2HQW | 17:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from Emma Hodcroft: @firefoxx66: I'm not sure I missed this, but this is *so cool*! 🤩 A truly incredible achievement - over 1 million #SARSCoV2 sequences at your fingertips!And - all done with #opendata, which enables such incredible innovation & collaboration!🤝🔓#openscience → https://is.gd/KN96aG | 17:43 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +23837 cases (now 5.3 million) since 15 hours ago — Italy: +2895 cases (now 4.3 million), +11 deaths (now 127851) since 22 hours ago | 18:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from Shane Crotty: @EricTopol: RT by @profshanecrotty: I can't emphasize enough how well vaccines are working against Delta, especially preserving their > 90% effectiveness vs severe illness. Its high transmissibility (cf prior variants) & prevalence is leading to more infections among vaccinees that are mostly w/o symptoms or mild. → https://is.gd/ngKALc | 18:14 |
| Brainstorm | New from Shane Crotty: @profshanecrotty: Get your 2nd COVID-19 vaccine shot! You need it for protection against Delta. → https://is.gd/Jcah4j | 18:25 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Guernsey: +7 cases (now 871) since a day ago | 18:32 |
| Brainstorm | New from Shane Crotty: @profshanecrotty: At this point, you are either vaccinated or you are going to catch Delta.And whether you are young adult or old, when you catch Delta unvaccinated, you will have the highest chance of being hospitalized compared to almost any disease you have caught in your life. → https://is.gd/XMnGl5 | 18:35 |
| Brainstorm | New from Shane Crotty: @profshanecrotty: Nice to see good immune memory to the J&J vaccine! Good antibodies and CD8 T cells for 8 months, and it looks like they will last for years.Small study, but consistent results between people.https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2108829 → https://is.gd/yrmuXT | 18:46 |
| Brainstorm | New from Gazzetta Ufficiale italiana: MINISTERO DELLO SVILUPPO ECONOMICO - DECRETO 25 giugno 2021: Liquidazione coatta amministrativa della «Ecologia e lavorocooperativa sociale in liquidazione», in Milano e nomina delcommissario liquidatore. (21A04202) → https://is.gd/CDXjaa | 18:56 |
| Jigsy | UK hits 50K cases again. | 19:03 |
| Jigsy | Either I'm getting smarter, or the my countrymen are getting stupider. | 19:04 |
| Jigsy | -the | 19:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from New Scientist: Covid-19 news: England unlocking is ‘unethical’, say 1200 scientists: The latest coronavirus news updated every day including coronavirus cases, the latest news, features and interviews from New Scientist and essential information about the covid-19 pandemic → https://is.gd/s6Zs7y | 19:27 |
| IndoAnon | LoL https://i.4cdn.org/int/1626410922163.png | 19:29 |
| IndoAnon | malaysian prediction | 19:29 |
| Jigsy | >That's all very well, but if we stayed locked down, what exactly would we be waiting for? Vaccination levels are high among adults and higher each day. | 19:35 |
| Jigsy | Oh, Alex, I'll take "What are mutations?" for $500! | 19:35 |
| LjL | Raf[m], thanks. i'll have them checked again anyway, maybe just a fluke | 19:41 |
| genera | 50k new cases per 24h or what? | 19:42 |
| LjL | where, UK? | 19:42 |
| LjL | ah yes i see | 19:43 |
| LjL | wasn't it still like 36k yesterday? sudden spike? | 19:43 |
| Jigsy | It was 40K, I believe. | 19:46 |
| LjL | yeah i'm wrong | 19:47 |
| LjL | things change so much day to day | 19:47 |
| LjL | i hoped since the UK had peaked earlier, by now it would be starting to stabilize, instead it looks like another bigger spike :( | 19:47 |
| Jigsy | And only 51% of the population have had a second vaccination. | 19:48 |
| Jigsy | But the UK view being vaccinated as some kind of "magic bullet." | 19:48 |
| Brainstorm | New from WebMD: Friends, Family Key to Turning a 'No' on Vaccination to a 'Yes': A new Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) poll reveals nothing sways a vaccine-hesitant person more than a word with a family member, friend or their own doctor. → https://is.gd/EAwwAw | 19:48 |
| LjL | when i look here https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing since the "PCR testing capacity" is much lower than the "virus tests conducted", i assume the latter includes rapid tests? | 19:49 |
| Jigsy | 27 million people still unvaccinated. | 19:50 |
| Jigsy | 23 million, even. | 19:50 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Morocco: +2791 cases (now 552635), +9 deaths (now 9427) since a day ago — Spain: +40309 cases (now 4.1 million) since 23 hours ago | 19:59 |
| Jigsy | %cases UK | 20:04 |
| Brainstorm | Jigsy: In United Kingdom, there have been 5.3 million confirmed cases (8.0% of the population) and 128728 deaths (2.4% of cases) as of 29 minutes ago. 229.1 million tests were performed (2.3% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 20:04 |
| LjL | how will governments tell people next autumn (next autumn if we're lucky) that, nope, they were wrong about the vaccines putting an end to it, and we're back at square one | 20:05 |
| LjL | 'cause we'll be | 20:05 |
| genera | %newcases UK do we have that | 20:09 |
| bin | %cases uk | 20:26 |
| Brainstorm | bin: In United Kingdom, there have been 5.3 million confirmed cases (8.0% of the population) and 128728 deaths (2.4% of cases) as of 51 minutes ago. 229.1 million tests were performed (2.3% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 20:26 |
| LjL | genera, now, but what would it show? past day? Covidly data don't actually match official government data, not because they're wrong, but because they're "snapshotted" at different times. i think one sensible thing i could provide (but i'd have to change a lot of the code) would be the cases in the past 7 days, compared to the cases in the 7 days before that. i think many people here agree 7 days is the minimum that's reasonable to look at, because all countries | 20:26 |
| LjL | have a weekly pattern in the way they count cases | 20:26 |
| LjL | s/now/no/ | 20:26 |
| LjL | honestly, fixating on "omg how many cases we have today" is more fear-fueling than useful in my opinion, although the bot does it anyway periodically, but i wrote that long ago | 20:27 |
| genera | ya i should just scroll back | 20:28 |
| LjL | genera, i might be able to easily add a "show me against the last thing you showed about <country>" perhaps | 20:29 |
| genera | scrollback shows it seems the 50k number is a day old itself | 20:30 |
| genera | o my | 20:30 |
| Brainstorm | New from Francois Balloux: @BallouxFrancois: Over a year ago, there were heated discussions over a possible role of the 'infectious dose' (ie the number of viral particles initiating an infection) on COVID19 morbidity / mortality. It might be time to revisit those in the context of vaccine efficacy. → https://is.gd/9QUljJ | 20:31 |
| LjL | genera, they just said it's 52k today on TV | 20:32 |
| LjL | which is also what it says here https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ | 20:33 |
| LjL | i think something i want to do is to add a %tracker <country> command to link to the official tracker for each country. might take a while to build a list of them all, but a few are already on my links page | 20:33 |
| genera | https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/downloads/homepage/2021-07-16/thumbnail_newCasesByPublishDate.svg | 20:34 |
| genera | that sure is not "transmission has to go down with higher temperatures in summer | 20:35 |
| LjL | this seasonality thing always left me a tad perplexed | 20:37 |
| LjL | sure, there have been example where transmission went radically down during the summer (italy last year) | 20:37 |
| LjL | but at the same time it was also radically going up in other places that were also hot (Arizona, sure, there's the excuse everyone is inside with A/C, but it's not like Italy doesn't know A/C) | 20:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from COVID19 Vaccine Tracker: Andy Becker: Bagheiat-allah University of Medical Sciences: COVID-19 Recombinant RBD Protein Vaccine → https://is.gd/7u1GtD | 20:41 |
| de-facto | LjL, many are linked from worldometers | 20:54 |
| LjL | de-facto, i'll try to remember that, also there is a US-specific tracker that has links to most of the individual states' sites | 20:55 |
| IndoAnon | >how will governments tell people next autumn (next autumn if we're lucky) that, nope, they were wrong about the vaccines putting an end to it, and we're back at square one< By not admitting anything. Maybe something like "It's unfortunate that the 1st gen vaxx failed to uphold ours standard, but it's manufacturer's fault. NHS and gov expert make decisions from the data they sent to us. But , it seems they simply failed us" | 21:12 |
| IndoAnon | *NHS/CDC/(insert_some_gov_body_here) | 21:13 |
| pwr22 | https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/birmingham-hospital-cancels-operations-covid-19/ | 21:19 |
| de-facto | Boris made a mistake, again. | 21:19 |
| de-facto | maybe it requires him another visit at St. Thomas to act responsible? | 21:21 |
| de-facto | https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare | 21:28 |
| fumetto | has anyone followed india? have they loosened their restrictions, when cases went down? | 21:32 |
| fumetto | shares of different variants? | 21:32 |
| darsie | Blankspace said ppl act like there's no covid. Not wearing masks. Not even blankspace. | 21:33 |
| fumetto | in what country? | 21:34 |
| darsie | India | 21:34 |
| darsie | Might be a very localized view. | 21:35 |
| fumetto | ok. looks like theyve reached herd immunity threshold then, even with 617.2 - if its everywhere there | 21:35 |
| de-facto | hospitalizations since 2021-06-1 in UK Host[t] = 106.4 + 33.8 1.31^(t/4), hence R ~ 1.31 doubling each T2 = 4d Ln(2) / Ln(1.31) ~ 10.27 days | 21:35 |
| fumetto | over week old https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1412798388723200003 | 21:37 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Germany: +1538 cases (now 3.8 million) since 23 hours ago | 21:39 |
| fumetto | https://twitter.com/jukka235/status/1415130008230760458/photo/1 | 21:40 |
| fumetto | this is different than the above one, compared to cases https://twitter.com/jukka235/status/1415156160638902281/photo/1 | 21:40 |
| fumetto | young ppl usually dont get to hospital, so theres a delay when they infect older people, who then infect even older. dampened effect now because of vaccinations https://twitter.com/jukka235/status/1415156160638902281/photo/1 | 21:41 |
| fumetto | double pasted the last link, but anyway... | 21:42 |
| fumetto | deaths should rise around 10 days or so after hospital admissions | 21:43 |
| fumetto | and hospital admissions after cases, it depends. but deaths should follow cases rise with 1-2 months delay, at least in the fall it was so in europe | 21:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: Studies elucidate poorly understood long COVID: Mary Van Beusekom | News Writer | CIDRAP News Jul 16, 2021 New studies highlight 203 symptoms, indicators for long COVID, and the condition's rarity in children. → https://is.gd/piglfS | 21:44 |
| fumetto | was it the spanish flu, which was followed by rise in cancer... anyone knows which other viral infections have caused it? i was thinking about chromosome damages | 21:46 |
| fumetto | what was that chicken disease, that they have vaccine now? it used to be mild, then during the years or years evolved to very severe | 21:56 |
| fumetto | when theres a spillover from another species, straight from nature or via some lab treatment, its probably not near the optimal infectivity wise. so it will evolve, and when it becomes more infective, the lethality will increase too | 21:58 |
| fumetto | (unless some coincidental lethality reducing change happens at the same time, like with D614G) | 21:59 |
| fumetto | when those virologists discussed about possibility for sars2 to become more lethal, in the spring 2020, they couldnt think of an example when that would have happened. well, that chicken virus and spanish flu from 1st to 2nd wave | 22:00 |
| nixonix | when you compare countries, put offloop in log scale. differencies could be measures they currently have, ppls own behaving, share of indian variant, or immunity from vaxes or infections | 22:15 |
| nixonix | most of western europe have now similar trajectory, steeper than in uk | 22:15 |
| nixonix | irelands is flatter for some reason, greeks and swiss have steeper. holland keeps curling, maybe changes in testing and tracing | 22:17 |
| nixonix | eastern europe looks mostly like indian variant isnt dominant yet | 22:18 |
| nixonix | so whatever any countries healthcare officials say about R, that they base on things like hospital admissions, is probably plain horse shit | 22:20 |
| nixonix | uk, with lots of immunity from infections and vax https://twitter.com/BarnardResearch/status/1414636107548045317 | 22:24 |
| Arsanerit | is any country in europe not yet dominated by delta / B.1.617.2? | 22:24 |
| nixonix | "Men were 11% less likely than women to have been vaccinated, and also 30% less likely to test positive for antibodies than women" | 22:32 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/226413/almost-100-double-vaccinated-people-england/ | 22:32 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.imperial.ac.uk: Almost all double vaccinated people in England have antibodies to coronavirus | Imperial News | Imperial College London | 22:32 |
| Arsanerit | men are less likely to be vaccinated than women? | 22:34 |
| specing | Could be due to there being more old women than old men alive | 22:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: COVID-19: WHO chief proposes second China probe into virus's origins - including audit of Wuhan labs → https://is.gd/HAwxQv | 22:37 |
| Arsanerit | Oh, not corrected for age? | 22:39 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Algeria: +1197 cases (now 151103), +15 deaths (now 3910) since a day ago | 22:41 |
| de-facto | .title https://imgur.com/a/oTqvECC https://i.imgur.com/QOZjgIM.png "COVID UK: Patients admitted to hospital since 2021-06-01" src: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare | 22:42 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From imgur.com: COVID UK: Patients admitted to hospital since 2021-06-01 - Album on Imgur | 22:42 |
| Arsanerit | Hmm, I thought those data were reported by constitutent country | 22:44 |
| Brainstorm | New from FDA Press Releases: FDA: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: July 16, 2021 → https://is.gd/CtDXMb | 22:47 |
| nixonix | it looked also like women have got infeceted more. unless abs just wane more rapidly with men | 22:52 |
| specing | Arsanerit: I don't know, I didn't look. Just speculating | 22:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: England’s Covid unlocking is threat to world, say 1,200 scientists. International experts say ‘unethical experiment’ could allow vaccine-resistant variants to develop. → https://is.gd/ERFnor | 22:58 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1737? | 22:59 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.bmj.com: Donuts, drugs, booze, and guns: what governments are offering people to take covid-19 vaccines | The BMJ | 23:00 |
| nixonix | ljl https://twitter.com/allthecitizens/status/1416058074054418438 | 23:05 |
| de-facto | yeah give them guns, what could go wrong | 23:06 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +51273 cases (now 5.3 million) since 20 hours ago — Canada: +214 cases (now 1.4 million) since 20 hours ago | 23:06 |
| de-facto | wtf | 23:06 |
| nixonix | who was it, said daily cases in uk can go as high as 100k | 23:08 |
| de-facto | guns alcohol and cannabis for vaccinations | 23:08 |
| nixonix | ist just one doubling away now | 23:08 |
| nixonix | it was that new healthcare minister | 23:08 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: News Scan for Jul 16, 2021: Complications during COVID hospitalization Texas monkeypox case MDRO reduction in nursing homes Salad Salmonella outbreak Polio in 3 countries → https://is.gd/I0YZ6G | 23:09 |
| de-facto | https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-value-and-growth-rate | 23:10 |
| de-facto | Latest R range for England 1.2 to 1.4 | 23:10 |
| de-facto | doubling each T2 = 4d Ln(2) / Ln(1.3) = 11 days | 23:11 |
| nixonix | https://twitter.com/jyri/status/1416066979841052675 | 23:11 |
| nixonix | while theres that az shill in twitter, with lots of followers in uk. lemme find one of her tweets... | 23:12 |
| de-facto | hence 100k at Tue 2021-07-27 in UK | 23:12 |
| de-facto | if it continues like that | 23:12 |
| nixonix | https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1416020128291082245 | 23:13 |
| nixonix | ^ AZ shill | 23:13 |
| de-facto | do we have any data about how many breakthrough cases are in the UK infections? | 23:15 |
| nixonix | https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1413925899443916800 | 23:18 |
| Brainstorm | New from CIDRAP: US COVID-19 cases climb steadily all week: Lianna Matt McLernon | News Writer | CIDRAP News Jul 16, 2021 "This is becoming a pandemic of the unvaccinated," CDC head says, as indoor masking returns to LA County. → https://is.gd/xTAjjj | 23:19 |
| nixonix | like this type, population level in uk? i havent seen | 23:21 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-9762039/Just-0-04-19-5-million-Californians-vaccinated-against-COVID-19-later-contracted-disease.html | 23:21 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.dailymail.co.uk: Covid US: Just 0.04% of 19.5 million vaccinated Californians later contracted the disease | Daily Mail Online | 23:21 |
| nixonix | just those england and scotland papers that youve seen | 23:22 |
| Arsanerit | and what % of unvaccinated Californians? | 23:22 |
| nixonix | i dont know, i just used that as an example | 23:22 |
| nixonix | anyways: “CDC guidance is not to test the vaccinated [unless they’re symptomatic], so we’re probably missing a bunch of transmission in vaccinated individuals,” Mr Murray said, who is the lead modeller at the IHME | 23:24 |
| nixonix | how is indian variant progressing in latin america or asia? | 23:26 |
| nixonix | they used to give smallpox vaccine to those that had got the infection. if given during the first day or so, it could prevent it, at least so that symptoms would appear | 23:28 |
| nixonix | then it seemed to be beneficial if given during the first week or so, if i recall | 23:28 |
| nixonix | so prob sars2 vaccines wouldnt help much, if given when patient is already admitted to hospital. if it would work with them, then perhaps for those that test positive, straight away, without delays. it should be tested | 23:30 |
| nixonix | and if it helped, then for risk groups that for some reason havent got vaccine before | 23:31 |
| nixonix | so how does that work, any ideas? | 23:31 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Togo: +85 cases (now 14511) since 19 hours ago | 23:41 |
| de-facto | what if we breed more and more aggressive strains, so COVID gets worse each year? | 23:42 |
| de-facto | well we are breeding those | 23:43 |
| nixonix | there must be some ceiling | 23:43 |
| nixonix | like when it kills us all | 23:43 |
| nixonix | some people dont think indian variant is more lethal, so that evidence for it isnt strong | 23:44 |
| nixonix | brits think it is, and they think uk variant was more lethal than previous ones. so i wonder if those that dont believe indian variant is, think uk variant wasnt either | 23:45 |
| nixonix | and that the mechanism that made it more lethal, isnt proved. who knows for sure, but i think they give too much weigh on just one paper saying the increased spreading would be because 1000x more virions | 23:47 |
| nixonix | it could be wrong, and part of it could be eg increased cell infectivity | 23:48 |
| nixonix | how do you get more virions? increased cell infectivity in upper respiratory most likely. so the same wouldnt happen in other cells? | 23:48 |
| nixonix | or infective units, which isnt necessarily the same as single virions | 23:52 |
| nixonix | it could even "learn to fly" better, like when earlier variant mostly spreaded as large units like mucosal cells, it could change so that it would be single virions more often | 23:54 |
| nixonix | it varies between viruses and its not well understood | 23:54 |
| nixonix | anyways, why trying to give vaccine to those that have got the infection already? | 23:56 |
| nixonix | viruses have immune evasions mechanisms, that suppress or divert the response | 23:56 |
| nixonix | now if you give him a vaccine dose, more normal response should launch | 23:57 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.05.21260050v2.full | 23:59 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: Progressive Increase in Virulence of Novel SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Ontario, Canada | medRxiv | 23:59 |
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