| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Hospital admissions of Covid-19 patients double in two weeks in Spain → https://is.gd/GNzsOT | 00:02 |
|---|---|---|
| nixonix | https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1415672918588145664 | 00:03 |
| nixonix | also topol doesnt believe its more lethal | 00:03 |
| nixonix | there should be betting on things like these, like sports and elections | 00:04 |
| de-facto | stats seem to look like its more lethal though | 00:05 |
| de-facto | i think it makes sense, its more aggressively reproducing at cellular level, hence also give more load on immune system in race condition | 00:06 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext | 00:09 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.thelancet.com: SARS-CoV-2 Delta VOC in Scotland: demographics, risk of hospital admission, and vaccine effectiveness - The Lancet | 00:09 |
| de-facto | "The Cox regression analysis for time to hospital admission found that S gene-positive cases were associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 hospital admission: hazard ratio (HR) 1·85 (95% CI 1·39–2·47) when compared to S gene-negative cases, after adjusting for age, sex, deprivation, temporal trend, and comorbidities." | 00:09 |
| de-facto | imho we really need to stop this breeding, its a very bad idea | 00:10 |
| de-facto | instead we do the opposite | 00:11 |
| nixonix | theres already around 2.5 * 10^20 sars2 rna molecules produced (1-10, but i got 2.5 using the most likely estimates from couple of papers) | 00:12 |
| nixonix | oh, i think its more like 5, because i also estimated roughly the ppl that have got the infection more than my quick guess (i got 26%, but likely somewhere between 20-35% or so) | 00:13 |
| nixonix | oct 2nd 2020 mike ryoan of WHO said, their best guess is 10% of world population had got infected, being around 750M | 00:14 |
| de-facto | worldwide infection rates have to be forced down by several orders of magnitude and vaccination rates have to be increased by several orders of magnitude | 00:15 |
| nixonix | after that, official cases have increased 5.5 fold, so that would make 55% infected now (while my rough estimate is around half of that) | 00:15 |
| nixonix | mike *ryan | 00:15 |
| nixonix | his factor was almost 23 times as many infected as official case numbers | 00:15 |
| nixonix | and my rough number would be around 11 currently. but its very rough estimate for different areas of the world | 00:16 |
| de-facto | we need much stricter and much more aggressive containment | 00:16 |
| de-facto | and more worldwide collaboration in a synchronized way | 00:16 |
| de-facto | WHO should be organizing something instead of renaming variants | 00:17 |
| nixonix | nah, now they all want to let it rip. its a race, who is the first to return to normal | 00:18 |
| nixonix | https://twitter.com/GabrielScally/status/1416037894679142403 | 00:18 |
| de-facto | there is no normal with it | 00:20 |
| de-facto | the sooner people realize the less painful it will be | 00:20 |
| de-facto | uk tries this now, lets observe where this approach brings them | 00:21 |
| nixonix | too bad we removed the few restrictions we had, for travelling and metro area, in the beginning of june. now our new wave starting level was so high and it started among the first in europe, june 15th | 00:21 |
| nixonix | its been nice to be a bit behind and look what happen elsewhere, before this mistake | 00:22 |
| de-facto | so far their "normal" doubles hospitalizations each 10 days or such | 00:22 |
| nixonix | luckily our trajectory is a bit more flat than in other western europe | 00:22 |
| nixonix | usa seems to have the same angle than majority of western europe | 00:22 |
| nixonix | and eu average too | 00:22 |
| nixonix | they just dont see that long delay between cases and hospitalizations. or those permanent damage prospects from mild cases even. hopefully less for kids, but who knows | 00:25 |
| nixonix | even many healthcare officials cant see stuff like that, its shown many times in the past with their mistakes and stuff they have said in media | 00:25 |
| nixonix | meaning some of them. part of them must see them, but obviously not all, even epidemiologists in health institutes | 00:26 |
| nixonix | on of our national health institute chiefs just said in an interview "its almost like in north korea!" | 00:27 |
| nixonix | because you dont believe me: | 00:29 |
| nixonix | https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=fi&tl=en&u=https://suomenkuvalehti.fi/jutut/kotimaa/kaikkien-koronatartuntojen-estaminen-rajoituksilla-on-mahdotonta-sanoo-thln-hanna-nohynek-olemme-kohta-kuin-pohjois-koreassa/?shared%3D1188843-ca644285-500 | 00:29 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Fr. Polynesia: +27 cases (now 19085) since 22 hours ago — Chad: +5 cases (now 4964) since 23 hours ago | 00:30 |
| de-facto | much stricter and better controlled containment is the only chance to regain control over Delta | 00:31 |
| nixonix | It is impossible to prevent all corona infections with restrictions, says HL Nohynek of THL: “We are almost like in North Korea” | 00:31 |
| nixonix | Professor Emeritus Matti Jantunen disagrees: for him, lifting the restrictions would be like allowing drunk driving. The timetable for opening up society is a matter of values. | 00:31 |
| de-facto | and i think this means lockdown, because obviously without it we have R>1 all over Europe | 00:31 |
| de-facto | so with R<1 it is possible to prevent corona infections, because it will die off | 00:32 |
| de-facto | and this has to be enforced, if people like it or not, at all (hopefully minimized) costs. | 00:33 |
| nixonix | we here should have been able to keep it under R just with events and bar closures in regions where tracing isnt very effective, then surrounding areas restricted opening hours for bars | 00:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Lancet (Online): [Comment] Will the COVID-19 crisis catalyse universal health reforms?: The historian Walter Scheidel has argued that reductions in inequality have often emerged after war, revolution, state collapse, and plague.1 On July 12, 2021, there were more than 4 million deaths from COVID-19 globally.2 The disproportionate and [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/dY5QgL | 00:33 |
| de-facto | sure whatever brings R<1 | 00:33 |
| nixonix | because summer helps. but instead they removed almost all the restrictions | 00:33 |
| nixonix | and that would include tight borders naturally | 00:33 |
| de-facto | its a bad start into the winter seasonality, it will become about 42% more infectious at least until Jan | 00:34 |
| nixonix | summer helps somewhat like uk variant in the winter. and we did it then with uk variant. just didnt continue long enough to get the cases really down | 00:34 |
| nixonix | meaning uk in winter would be roughly like indian in the summer | 00:34 |
| de-facto | we could have used the summer to make it almost extinct and hold it at very low levels while progressing with vaccinations | 00:35 |
| nixonix | but they compared to the last summer, and thought the same will happen, so we can remove restrictions again | 00:35 |
| de-facto | instead we imported every single problematic mutant worldwide and lifted much of the containment that was effective in bringing incidence down before | 00:36 |
| nixonix | and when cases start to go up in the fall, we will have good 1st dose vaccine coverage - and it prevents severe cases | 00:36 |
| nixonix | not for kids, but they dont usually get it bad | 00:36 |
| nixonix | telomeres? never heard... | 00:36 |
| nixonix | summer effect, would that be as high as 60% or so to cancel indian variant? perhaps not quite, but anyways, that would have worked | 00:37 |
| nixonix | and if not, then a bit more tighter those bar etc restrictions. easy piesy | 00:38 |
| nixonix | in other europe, pretty similar measures should have worked too, as your degree of urbanization isnt usually the same level as in finland :) | 00:39 |
| de-facto | we still dont even have proper testing, why dont we test all of population twice a week ? | 00:39 |
| de-facto | mandatory testing for everyone | 00:39 |
| de-facto | its like "yeah if you like you can do it, but you dont have to" bla bla | 00:40 |
| nixonix | what is holding the spreading of indian variant in eastern europe? | 00:40 |
| de-facto | the wave goes from west to east over europe | 00:41 |
| de-facto | except for russia | 00:41 |
| Jigsy | >Over 24 million people in the UK have been vaccinated with Astrazenca which doesn't work well against the South African variant. | 00:41 |
| Jigsy | Yay... | 00:41 |
| specing | Lol | 00:41 |
| Jigsy | >Says it all really that South Africa stopped using the vaccine due to how little effect it had. | 00:41 |
| Jigsy | Double yay... | 00:41 |
| Jigsy | The next month or so is going to be one interesting shitshow to watch. | 00:42 |
| de-facto | honestly i feel sorry for the people in UK, i hope not too many get their health damaged too much | 00:43 |
| nixonix | they have lots of immunity from infections and vaccines. its countries like us that have more to lose | 00:44 |
| nixonix | but yeah using az lowers that somewhat | 00:44 |
| nixonix | not as much for severe cases. telomeres, brain damages etc, who knows | 00:45 |
| specing | Little effect? So people still have long covid despite being fully vaccinated? | 00:46 |
| himesama | one paper says unknown | 00:47 |
| himesama | from which one can conclude the possibility that the uk by effect of policy is creating, if 100k cases per day, something like 13k-22k lc cases per day | 00:48 |
| specing | How can this be unknown, wtf | 00:48 |
| himesama | only a possibility | 00:49 |
| nixonix | hard to say for sure. supposedly less. meaning those above, not all long covid symptoms, which mostly get better with time | 00:49 |
| de-facto | we need more monitoring vaccine breakthrough cases, their progression, variants, long-covid, IFR etc | 00:50 |
| himesama | which ones are you saying mostly get better over time | 00:50 |
| de-facto | this is very very important to monitor, so why dont we have reports about those every week? | 00:51 |
| himesama | this 15:50 <de-facto> we need more monitoring vaccine breakthrough cases, their progression, variants, long-covid, IFR etc | 00:51 |
| himesama | there is going to be bias against lc and that might be a factor | 00:51 |
| nixonix | generally symptoms that lc cases feel, that all is not okay. if i recall majority feel cured in 6 months or so (but they cant see their telomeres and arent necessarily aware of possible brain damage) | 00:52 |
| himesama | autoantibodies can be the result of infection. can they be the result of vaccines or viral fragments? or are they the result of something active that the infections do? | 00:52 |
| nixonix | just a tweet i saw today, single case doesnt prove anything either way, but anyways https://twitter.com/vaga_jay/status/1415497982368047105 | 00:53 |
| de-facto | soon there will be a test for long covid | 00:53 |
| de-facto | they are working on anto-antibody tests | 00:53 |
| himesama | if that turns out to be correct. and if that turns out to cover teh heterogeneity. | 00:54 |
| de-facto | https://www.medicaldevice-network.com/features/long-covid-blood-test/ | 00:54 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jul/12/long-covid-rogue-antibody-discovery-raises-hope-of-blood-test | 00:54 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.theguardian.com: Long Covid: rogue antibody discovery raises hope of blood test | Long Covid | The Guardian | 00:54 |
| himesama | yeah i like that and hope it turns out tobe correct | 00:55 |
| nixonix | somehow i think theres prob large selection of different autoantibodies, that simple poc test wouldnt catch | 00:58 |
| himesama | is there tech out there to find autoantibodies? i am guessing not even at research level, as i have heard discovery of them is mostly triala nd error, but i hope that is wrong. | 00:59 |
| himesama | you could take every cell type, keep them alive, and throw blood at them and see if anything sticks? or something? | 00:59 |
| himesama | or rational computer prediction of what antibodies bind to? | 01:00 |
| himesama | does this suggest killing b cells as treatment? | 01:00 |
| de-facto | i dont get it, UK got top scientists and such an insane government, how does that fit together? | 01:02 |
| nixonix | arthritis drugs and like, i suppose | 01:03 |
| himesama | that could depend on what types of cells produce the autoantibodies | 01:07 |
| himesama | and whether heterogeneity of that would make it work only for osme | 01:07 |
| de-facto | hmm so if long covid is autoimmune could it be treated like this? | 01:08 |
| de-facto | .title https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6525/145 | 01:08 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From science.sciencemag.org: A noninflammatory mRNA vaccine for treatment of experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis | Science | 01:08 |
| nixonix | tissue and line immunoblot assays seem to be methods to find them, but not sure if they are used to identify them the first time, without no idea of the antigen | 01:09 |
| specing | de-facto: UK gov isn't insane. BoJo just cosplays a clown | 01:10 |
| nixonix | i found something on identification. too bad they dont say anything to me... | 01:11 |
| nixonix | In recent years, alternative methods such as comprehensive phage display, fluid-phase immunoassays, and antigen microarrays have been developed for autoantigen discovery and profiling autoantibody responses. Compared to classic approaches such as Western blot and ELISA | 01:11 |
| nixonix | current trend for antigen testing seems to be panels like amplicon. that can identify large number of sars2 variants and also other respiratory viruses | 01:13 |
| himesama | specing: are you saying they are insane like a fox? | 01:14 |
| specing | himesama: ...what? | 01:14 |
| himesama | you can know what you are doing and cosplay insanity or still NOT know what you are doing and cosplay insanity | 01:15 |
| himesama | de-facto: very interesting | 01:15 |
| specing | himesama: I'm certain that bojo knows what he's doing | 01:16 |
| himesama | although wouldn't that risk increasing autoimmunity in ms? | 01:16 |
| himesama | by increqaseing the autoantigens? s/wouldn't/could/ | 01:16 |
| de-facto | nope the opposite is the case it seems | 01:17 |
| himesama | could that work for ANY autoimmune disease/ | 01:19 |
| himesama | ? | 01:19 |
| de-facto | i am not sure | 01:19 |
| himesama | is the molecular mimicry hypothesis the most mainstream hypothesis of autoimmunity? | 01:20 |
| himesama | i want to know what went into the decisions in the uk | 01:21 |
| himesama | like, minutes of meetings | 01:23 |
| himesama | i know what a phage is but not what this is "comprehensive phage display" | 01:24 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Tokyo Olympics: 32 Photos of Tokyo Preparing for Games During Pandemic → https://is.gd/oUZAEI | 01:25 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.seanet.com/~ejohnson/files/thisisms-shared/mRNA_vaccine_for_MS-Krienke.pdf <-- here is the PDF free access | 01:33 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.seanet.com: Science Journals — AAAS | 01:34 |
| de-facto | "A noninflammatory mRNA vaccine for treatment of experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis" | 01:34 |
| himesama | there is text access | 01:35 |
| himesama | also the association of inflammation with adjuvants suggests could the vaccine manufacturers produce some vaccines without adjuvants for those who are at risk of reaction to the vaccines? would that make sense? | 01:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: Moderna plans triple vaccine targeting flu, COVID and RSV - → https://is.gd/Ja8tc0 | 01:46 |
| LjL | now i don't even know what RSV is | 01:48 |
| LjL | %wik RSV | 01:48 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, specify one of the following: Respiratory syncytial virus — Revised Standard Version — Rous sarcoma virus — Royal Society of Victoria — Ship prefix — Stampe et Vertongen — Subclavian vein | 01:48 |
| LjL | oh, i do know | 01:48 |
| nixonix | so if there will be 1000x more virions from indian variant, and they think infections from touching surface are not that common because virions wont last that long on different surfaces | 01:50 |
| nixonix | and i think they used surviving to the level of 1/8 in some test | 01:51 |
| nixonix | lets say on some surface type the previous variants survived eg 2 days | 01:51 |
| nixonix | now with 1000 times more virions, that would make almost 9 days | 01:52 |
| nixonix | https://twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1415667931359236103 | 01:53 |
| LjL | and my parents stopping disinfecting groceries ;( | 01:54 |
| nixonix | time to start again! | 01:54 |
| LjL | it's a negotiation, i'm not sure i can win this time | 01:54 |
| LjL | where did you get the 1000x ballpark anyway= | 01:54 |
| nixonix | if 1 goes to 1/8 in 2 days. before that 1000 must go to 1 | 01:55 |
| nixonix | ah you meant 1000x im tired | 01:56 |
| nixonix | a min... | 01:56 |
| nixonix | .title https://virological.org/t/viral-infection-and-transmission-in-a-large-well-traced-outbreak-caused-by-the-delta-sars-cov-2-variant/724 | 01:56 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From virological.org: Viral infection and transmission in a large well-traced outbreak caused by the Delta SARS-CoV-2 variant - nCoV-2019 Genomic Epidemiology - Virological | 01:57 |
| Brainstorm | New from BBC Health: (news): Coronavirus doctor's diary: 'Not having the vaccine is the biggest mistake of my life’ → https://is.gd/wu6OCZ | 01:57 |
| LjL | "Some have had two vaccines and so have had milder disease - they are alive on Cpap (non-invasive ventilation with oxygen) when without the vaccine they would probably be dead," my respiratory colleague Dr Abid Aziz told me after an exhausting six-hour ward round. | 01:58 |
| LjL | good f. grief | 01:58 |
| LjL | (that's from the BBC article above) | 01:58 |
| LjL | "being alive on Cpap" was not what we were thinking of when we were all "hurray they made vaccines" ;( | 01:59 |
| LjL | nixonix, it boggles my mind how you can have 1000x higher viral load without killing the host much more abruptly | 02:02 |
| himesama | so srsly groceries need disinfecting again? | 02:02 |
| LjL | himesama, did it ever really stop? | 02:03 |
| himesama | idk | 02:03 |
| LjL | himesama, there have been indications that the main way the virus transmits is NOT via fomites, so i guess to some people, that way enough to stop disinfecting groceries. to my parents, it was just too tiresome at this point | 02:04 |
| LjL | but even if that's true, it doesn't mean the virus *can't* transmit via fomites | 02:05 |
| LjL | and then with different variants, they might behave in different ways in this respect | 02:05 |
| himesama | i wonder what the rate of autoimmune disease creation by the recent vaccines is. orif you can estimate that reliably. (i don't mean symptom reporting but measurement of the autoantibodies) | 02:05 |
| LjL | when i think of groceries, i always think of having a bunch of things each of which has likely been touched by dozens of hands before reaching me | 02:05 |
| himesama | i am in the same position of trying to convince | 02:06 |
| himesama | and losing | 02:06 |
| himesama | so if there are persuasive articles... | 02:06 |
| himesama | but still | 02:06 |
| LjL | don't think anybody has studied fomite presence/transmission of Delta yet | 02:09 |
| LjL | nixonix was merely doing an extrapolation from this pre-pre-print where they say there's 1000x more virions | 02:09 |
| LjL | it just makes it more likely by sheer numbers, but we don't really know | 02:09 |
| LjL | the precautionary principle would tell me "well, in case of doubt, disinfect groceries", but then François Bellaux apparently tells me that the precautionary principle is bollocks | 02:09 |
| LjL | i probably misspelled his name too | 02:11 |
| himesama | there is a huge anti-precautionary-0priniple corporate propaganda push but maybe not related | 02:12 |
| joerg | how is precautionary principle bollocks? | 02:14 |
| joerg | how could it even be? | 02:14 |
| LjL | i'm not sure, i don't always agree with the things this, err, François Whatever tweets | 02:14 |
| LjL | well he has some tweets about it and he also links to a long article about it, so feel free to dissect it | 02:14 |
| LjL | once i find the link again | 02:14 |
| himesama | joerg: if your company makes a pesticide for example, you are gonig to want to say "haha precautionary principle, you increase the sensitivity of your equoipment and whoops the precautionsincrease. dose makes poison. let's just forgetabout all the combinations of chemicals out there that have never been tested and indivitudal variation and measurement errors" and other stuff like that. | 02:14 |
| himesama | then that sztuff gets sent out to skeptics' societies who loce to be contrarian and so somebody comes up to you like you arein a parking lot and a proselytizing religious sect except withlarger vocabulary | 02:16 |
| joerg | BS as usual | 02:16 |
| himesama | yeah | 02:16 |
| himesama | (but idk this tweeth3er) | 02:18 |
| * joerg wonders if anybody tested sars-cov2 sensitivity to UV, different wavelengths. Got a flashlight with UV LEDs, quite powerful | 02:19 | |
| LjL | joerg, himesama: https://mobile.twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1415050376106106883 (includes the link to that paper) | 02:19 |
| himesama | eek i hope the uv is a safe wavelength, not to mention the usual problems with pcm | 02:21 |
| himesama | and blue | 02:21 |
| joerg | >>Given that potential benefits of any intervention are generally inversely proportional to their cost, a less dogmatic cost/benefit optimisation approach seems far preferable in public health. << I call BS | 02:22 |
| de-facto | joerg, normally UV light that is energetic enough to disinfect can be quite harmful to human skin and especially eyes, yes some companies claim there is a sweet spot at 222nm | 02:22 |
| LjL | also, UV light that doesn't leave any dead spots (shadow) is nontrivial to produce | 02:23 |
| himesama | ah shadows | 02:24 |
| de-facto | indeed good point | 02:24 |
| himesama | there was a ted talkj about the sweet spot | 02:24 |
| joerg | there is a sweet spot and iirc it's close to 250nm, related to resonant frequency of some bio molecules. However there might be other effective wavelengths too, particularly since such hard UV is not very dominant in our sea level sunlight either | 02:25 |
| himesama | as usual the world can be fixed within 6 months (in many ted talks) | 02:25 |
| joerg | .en wikipedia has details about that "sweetspot" | 02:26 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.ushio.eu/care222-uv-disinfection/ <-- joerg | 02:28 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.ushio.eu: Care222®: Anti-Microbial Far UV-C Disinfection | Ushio Europe B.V. | 02:28 |
| de-facto | no idea how well that works or if any of their claims hold | 02:28 |
| LjL | my dentist today had a cough by the way, oh joy | 02:29 |
| joerg | unconfirmed but somewhat not too shady reports claim fridge light by simple blue LEDs results in drastically increased conservation timespan of foods | 02:29 |
| de-facto | they say 250nm would be harmful because it can penetrate skin in contrast to 200-230nm | 02:30 |
| de-facto | LjL, arent you at the peak of your antibodies already? | 02:31 |
| LjL | de-facto, somewhere close i guess | 02:32 |
| LjL | it's not been two weeks | 02:32 |
| de-facto | how long? | 02:32 |
| * LjL loads up his Covid Cert app | 02:32 | |
| LjL | 8 July | 02:33 |
| de-facto | yeah peak | 02:33 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.09.20245175v1.full-text | 02:33 |
| de-facto | look at their Fig 1 | 02:33 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.medrxiv.org: BNT162b2 induces SARS-CoV-2-neutralising antibodies and T cells in humans | medRxiv | 02:33 |
| LjL | de-facto, but still when i read something like this i'm not sure my Powerful Pfizer is so powerful after all: | 02:34 |
| LjL | "Some have had two vaccines and so have had milder disease - they are alive on Cpap (non-invasive ventilation with oxygen) when without the vaccine they would probably be dead," my respiratory colleague Dr Abid Aziz told me after an exhausting six-hour ward round. | 02:34 |
| de-facto | yeah of course there is also something like exposure dose etc | 02:34 |
| LjL | he did have the decency to go into another room when he needed to cough :P | 02:34 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Netherlands: +11166 cases (now 1.8 million), +3 deaths (now 17917) since 23 hours ago — Kazakhstan: +6986 cases (now 505510) since 23 hours ago — Guinea: +95 cases (now 24393), +1 deaths (now 185) since a day ago — France: +17 deaths (now 111542) since 23 hours ago | 02:35 |
| LjL | great another NL record | 02:35 |
| LjL | it had *seemed* to be slowing down but i guess maybe not | 02:35 |
| de-facto | uhmm | 02:36 |
| LjL | %tell genera: bit of a hack but try %cases <country> now and it should include the latest update | 02:36 |
| Brainstorm | LjL, I'll pass genera your message when they are around. | 02:36 |
| joerg | oh, I been wrong, was the *german* wikipedia https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultraviolettstrahlung#Desinfektion_und_Virusinaktivierung | 02:36 |
| joerg | .tr <de Neben der Mikroben-Desinfektion wird UV-Strahlung mit einer Wellenlänge von 254 nm auch zur Virusinaktivierung eingesetzt. Dabei wird ausgenutzt, dass die 254-nm-Strahlung bevorzugt auf die Virusnukleinsäure und weniger auf die Proteine wirkt. Strahlung der Wellenlänge 235 nm wirkt jedoch auch stark zerstörend auf Proteine | 02:37 |
| Brainstorm | joerg, German to English: In addition to disinfecting microbes, UV radiation with a wavelength of 254 nm is also used to inactivate viruses. This takes advantage of the fact that the 254 nm radiation has a preferential effect on the virus nucleic acid and less on the proteins. However, radiation with a wavelength of 235 nm also has a highly destructive effect on proteins (MyMemory) | 02:37 |
| LjL | joerg, that says it's good for viruses and not just bacteria, but it doesn't say that it's harmless to humans, that was what they meant by "sweet spot" | 02:38 |
| joerg | hm? | 02:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Israel offers third shot of Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine to adults at risk → https://is.gd/4f4vKX | 02:38 |
| LjL | joerg, when de-facto and himesama were talking about a "sweet spot", they were talking about a frequency that would kill the virus while not harming humans | 02:39 |
| LjL | i.e. safe for us | 02:39 |
| LjL | http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=EU&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&miscType=Reff noticed the R has never been this high Europe-wide? | 02:39 |
| joerg | oooh, you think 222nm would be harmless to humans | 02:39 |
| de-facto | .title https://allecijfers.nl/nieuws/statistieken-over-het-corona-virus-en-covid19/ | 02:40 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From allecijfers.nl: Statistieken over het Coronavirus en COVID-19 (dagelijks bijgewerkt!) | AlleCijfers.nl | 02:40 |
| de-facto | yeah they have another peak in the young | 02:40 |
| LjL | joerg, no, i don't think anything, i think i would play with any type of UV radiation strong enough to disinfect | 02:40 |
| de-facto | joerg, thats their claim there | 02:40 |
| LjL | i wouldn't* | 02:40 |
| de-facto | UV-C can be very dangerous | 02:41 |
| de-facto | just saying, dont risk your eyes | 02:41 |
| LjL | it can blind you by just a quick look, for a start | 02:41 |
| de-facto | maybe that company there is on to something, i dont know that, but i would not experiment with that myself | 02:41 |
| de-facto | we need lockdowns in EU | 02:47 |
| de-facto | doubling each 8 days with R~1.42 thats not acceptable in any scenario | 02:48 |
| de-facto | i wish this could be enforced, close borders, lockdown countries and bring it under control again | 02:49 |
| de-facto | and above all: finally end international passenger travel | 02:50 |
| de-facto | instead they open borders, drop containment and let it more and more out of control | 02:51 |
| de-facto | also they allow traveling without testing or quarantine | 02:51 |
| de-facto | completely insane | 02:51 |
| de-facto | this is the reason why this will become a huge explosion of incidence all over Europe, just as it happened before several times, yet with even more reproduction this time | 02:52 |
| de-facto | the wave is still at its begin and already we have R~1.42 | 02:53 |
| joerg | my flashlight is more like 430nm and still I avoid looking into it | 02:55 |
| de-facto | do i like to be a pessimist? i hate it. | 02:55 |
| de-facto | but i always underestimated it even with pessimism | 02:56 |
| de-facto | joerg, yeah but that does not kill virions | 02:56 |
| joerg | that's the question | 02:57 |
| de-facto | i dont think its energetic enough, its more for fluorescent dye etc | 02:57 |
| de-facto | inspect markers on ID or cash | 02:57 |
| joerg | the only (very effective) tests I know were by a sunlight simulator | 02:57 |
| LjL | http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=EU;US&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&miscType=Reff&leftTrim=100 | 02:57 |
| joerg | the "reduced from over 4h to 2 minutes" or somesuch | 02:58 |
| joerg | I wonder how much hard UV-C been in that sunlight simulator light | 02:58 |
| de-facto | yeah eu is ahead of us thanks to our liberal politics | 02:58 |
| de-facto | basically we are welcoming Delta with open arms in EU | 03:00 |
| joerg | and how much of that quite amazing effect been by longer wavelength UV which also has effects of all sorts | 03:00 |
| joerg | seems UV-A still can create radicals particularly in liquids like saliva etc probably | 03:01 |
| de-facto | joerg, the idea of that 222nm is to use *shorter* wavelength to ensure most of it already is absorbed at the dead layer of skin on the surface or also at the fluid film on the eyes etc | 03:02 |
| nixonix | hc officials said, R is only 1-1.25 in finland. we believe? | 03:02 |
| joerg | I know | 03:02 |
| de-facto | of course its not healthy, but potentially not as harmful as 254nm that would penetrate and also reach living cells, potentially doing damage to their DNA, potentially producing cancer and inflammation etc | 03:03 |
| joerg | I'm not looking at either of both wavelengths | 03:03 |
| de-facto | yeah neither would i | 03:03 |
| nixonix | i think cases around tripled on 3 weeks | 03:03 |
| joerg | I'm curious about effects of UV-A | 03:03 |
| de-facto | i dont think they do much effect | 03:04 |
| nixonix | if we assume only 4.2 day serial interval, then 1.25 would make it 5 times in 21 days. so its kinda plausible | 03:04 |
| himesama | is there a standard definition for confidence interval? is it 1sd orsomething? | 03:05 |
| de-facto | nixonix, triple in 3 weeks it would be R = 3^(4/21) = 1,23 | 03:05 |
| de-facto | with serial interval of 4 days | 03:06 |
| nixonix | i calculated in head, so it was approximation | 03:06 |
| himesama | what is serial? not 5.2 anymore? | 03:06 |
| nixonix | it should be shorter with indian variant i think | 03:07 |
| de-facto | it depends some use 4d others 5.2d | 03:07 |
| de-facto | R depends on that so it always has to be told based on what serial interval | 03:07 |
| de-facto | can be converted by R1^(1/ts1) = R2^(1/ts2) hence R1 = R2^(ts1/ts2) when R1 is based on serial interval ts1 | 03:08 |
| himesama | does lc research look at anti-hypothalamic and anti-pituitary autoantibodies? | 03:09 |
| LjL | https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Gibraltar&cumulative=no&smooth=yes Gibraltar is 100% vaccinated | 03:13 |
| de-facto | with what vaccine? | 03:16 |
| de-facto | R~2 dangit | 03:16 |
| de-facto | but no fatalities so far | 03:17 |
| de-facto | yet wave just stared 2-3 weeks ago | 03:17 |
| de-facto | its pretty clear that herd immunity will not work | 03:17 |
| de-facto | just as i always kept saying, incidence is to be controlled by NPIs | 03:17 |
| nixonix | every single one of them? protesting antivaxers too, by force? | 03:23 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9791503/Covid-Australia-Anti-lockdown-protestors-storm-Melbourne-eve-Victorias-five-day-lockdown.html | 03:24 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.dailymail.co.uk: Covid Australia: Anti-lockdown protestors storm Melbourne in the eve of Victoria's five-day lockdown | Daily Mail Online | 03:24 |
| nixonix | you dont see those in gibraltar | 03:24 |
| nixonix | well there was that one dude, but he took the shot then | 03:24 |
| nixonix | "no common sense!", there was a sign | 03:26 |
| nixonix | yeah, that should be illegal | 03:26 |
| de-facto | i dont want to rant about covidiots again, my opinion is that they should be forced to stick to hygiene rules by (weapons) force | 03:26 |
| de-facto | instead they attack police, so instead of them police ends up in hospital here | 03:27 |
| de-facto | because they dont use weapons on the covidiots | 03:27 |
| nixonix | that was a small demo. in netherlands there was a bit bigger | 03:28 |
| nixonix | might have been before they removed those restrictions | 03:29 |
| de-facto | how about writing down their ID and if they get COVID let them pay for their treatment instead of insurance? | 03:30 |
| nixonix | most of them have probably had it already | 03:31 |
| de-facto | i am not sure about that | 03:32 |
| de-facto | and they can get it again easily especially with delta | 03:33 |
| de-facto | if reinfections are mild? some are, others not so much, some even fatal | 03:33 |
| nixonix | similar official total cases per capita as in belgium, and i think belgium might be around 50% prevalence already | 03:33 |
| nixonix | and those groups prob have had it more often than most | 03:34 |
| nixonix | interesting to see if there are some ade or similar reactions when reinfection with other variants. if there will, they are probably more or less rare, as with dengue ade | 03:35 |
| de-facto | also they seed a lot of infection chains with their reckless behavior | 03:35 |
| nixonix | but if ravi gupta thinks there might be, despite that ppl attacked him in twitter, he probably has a point that its possible | 03:36 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Guinea-Bissau: +63 cases (now 4034), +2 deaths (now 72) since 22 hours ago | 03:37 |
| nixonix | impossible to stop virus with that kind of R in india. despite very bad roads between most areas, people still have to move and they will spread | 03:40 |
| nixonix | and when the middle class is 100M/1.4G, and it includes those working in calling centers, very few have possibility to keep the distance | 03:41 |
| nixonix | so it probably burned through to immunity threshold, whatever their restrictions were, and slowed down because of it | 03:42 |
| de-facto | i disagree, its always possible, its only a question of strictness, if this was nipah it would have been stopped | 03:42 |
| nixonix | nipah R is around .33 | 03:43 |
| nixonix | sure everything is possible, but they didnt do measures like shooting people if they come out of building | 03:44 |
| de-facto | hmm i mean if it was as deadly as Nipah | 03:44 |
| de-facto | yes | 03:44 |
| de-facto | quite interesting someone modeled Nipah | 03:47 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.hindawi.com/journals/jam/2020/6050834/ | 03:47 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.hindawi.com: A Mathematical Model for Nipah Virus Infection | 03:47 |
| nixonix | im still wondering if this variant could become uncontrolled in china | 03:47 |
| nixonix | and what will they do then | 03:47 |
| nixonix | there R might be lower tho, with east asians. it seems it doesnt spread that easily there | 03:48 |
| de-facto | i dont think they would let that happen | 03:48 |
| nixonix | despite harder to keep the distance, and their measures have been most of time strict border controls and not much tourists, and some kind of rag they have to put on face | 03:49 |
| nixonix | in east asia generally | 03:49 |
| de-facto | it works, why should it not work for delta? if delta is more contagious they could do more of how they contain the previous variants | 03:50 |
| de-facto | in contrast to Europe they are determined enough to contain it, i am pretty sure they also can do it for delta | 03:51 |
| nixonix | indonesia is now kinda test environment. but their trajectory is clearly flatter than in eu | 03:51 |
| nixonix | flatter than in germany too, despite strictest measures in europe there | 03:52 |
| de-facto | pretty much same R in Indonesia and Germany | 03:53 |
| de-facto | but Indonesia got much less vaccinated and much less hospital capacity per capita | 03:53 |
| de-facto | so that unfortunately means they will have a lot more fatalities per infection | 03:54 |
| de-facto | also their testing prevalence probably is much less, hence much more infections per reported case in reality | 03:54 |
| de-facto | yeah in Indonesia 1 each 3 tests comes back positive in Germany 1 each 100 tests | 03:55 |
| himesama | we have ben saying herd immunity strategy and all understand it to mean trying to get to herd immunity by infection or similar, but it might be clearer to newcomers if we called it natural immunity or infection immunity instead | 03:56 |
| nixonix | but younger population, summer conditions almost year around, and prob less suspectible for infections and severe symptoms than europeans and south americans | 03:56 |
| nixonix | we in europe arent mostly near 100% indian variant yet, exp uk. idk how it is in indonesia though | 03:56 |
| nixonix | or other asia | 03:56 |
| de-facto | i dont think we can reach herd immunity with delta | 03:57 |
| de-facto | its not possible without additional containment measures | 03:57 |
| nixonix | shark attacks should be called attacks but negative enocounters, they say in australia | 03:58 |
| nixonix | shouldnt | 03:58 |
| himesama | why? | 03:58 |
| himesama | my point was not to euphemize or polysyllabize but to disambiguate | 03:59 |
| himesama | israel used a vaccine herd immunity strategy... | 03:59 |
| nixonix | its a term that has been around a lot. those other alternatives, i wouldnt know what they are | 04:00 |
| de-facto | because if Delta got R0~6 in an unaware naive population we would need R0 (1 - v e ) = R hence v = ( R0 - R ) / ( e R0 ) = ( 6 - 1 ) / ( 0.88 6 ) = 0.95 part of population immunized for an (arbitrary highly assumed) efficacy e = 0.88 to reach endemic | 04:00 |
| nixonix | its a combination of infection and vaccine induced immunity anyway | 04:00 |
| de-facto | this is unrealistic in any scenario, hence Delta will only be contained by NPIs | 04:00 |
| himesama | herd immunity has been around for a while. do you know whether the strategy as we speak of it (uk, etc.) has been what it meant for a while? | 04:01 |
| de-facto | the vaccines never were designed to prevent transmission (as not inducing IgA), they were designed to prevent severe progressions (as in IgG and cellular immunity) | 04:01 |
| himesama | protecting the vulnerable who annot get vaccinated have to be part of such strategies. i wonder if the uk are even trying. | 04:01 |
| himesama | can we figure out the degree to which they preent transmission yet? | 04:02 |
| himesama | estimate* | 04:02 |
| nixonix | there has been some israelian estimates, among health care personnels or hospitals i think | 04:04 |
| nixonix | and i think the results looked good, preventing infection | 04:04 |
| nixonix | the problem is now this indian variant | 04:05 |
| de-facto | hence we need to prevent its spread by NPIs | 04:05 |
| nixonix | with possibly 1000x more virions, if true, and most likely also a lot more cell infectivity | 04:05 |
| de-facto | (i will sound like a broken record for the next months i fear) | 04:05 |
| nixonix | so it causes infection more easily for vaccinated | 04:05 |
| nixonix | and they probably also spread it more easily | 04:06 |
| himesama | i still don't get the point of if it is 3 orders of magnitute more virions why does it not cause significantly worse damage? | 04:06 |
| nixonix | like in that finnish hospital one of the double vaccinated (what i heard, mosty with pfizer, not confirmed tho) hcw infected several people | 04:06 |
| de-facto | much of the damage is caused by the immune system itself afaik | 04:07 |
| nixonix | they probably got both doses in january, with 3 weeks interval | 04:07 |
| nixonix | but not confirmed. so it might have reduced the protection already | 04:07 |
| nixonix | theres some evidence of 2-3 times more severe. some people disagree though, like topol and angela rasmussen | 04:08 |
| de-facto | i linked two papers indicating more severe delta above | 04:08 |
| nixonix | for those already in hospital, it looks like the same severity. but takes you to hospital way more often than uk variant, if the results hold | 04:08 |
| nixonix | i saw that canadian link. what was the other one? | 04:09 |
| de-facto | Scotland | 04:09 |
| nixonix | yeah seen that, unless its very recent new one | 04:09 |
| de-facto | nope older already | 04:10 |
| nixonix | with uk variant in january, brits gone forth and back a few times, its more severe, no it isnt, yet it is... but the yes stayed then | 04:11 |
| nixonix | now they havent said with delta anything after that. so their stand is prob still, its more severe | 04:11 |
| de-facto | it makes sense imho, if viral replication goes faster the immune system is stimulated with much more antigen hence probably freaks out even more at some progressions | 04:11 |
| de-facto | hard to compare, because treatment improves, seasons change, people behave differently, more incognito reinfections, hard to match Alpha with Delta with comparable patients etc pp | 04:13 |
| nixonix | about indonesias case trajectory, the higher the cases get, the more they leave behind in tracing the clusters, so the actual infection trajectory is steeper than confirmed cases | 04:13 |
| nixonix | so it could be like eu's trajectory, who knows, maybe even steeper | 04:14 |
| de-facto | 30% test positivity rate means they do not test enough by orders of magnitude | 04:14 |
| de-facto | they just cant the virus is too fast | 04:15 |
| de-facto | wait a few weeks then look at Europe again... | 04:15 |
| nixonix | so it looks like its too late, unless total lockdown. but it will burn through | 04:15 |
| nixonix | some ppl like indo can perhaps avoid the infection while it goes through, but most dont, and it goes like in india | 04:16 |
| nixonix | and then antivaxers in internet say, look ivermectin worked again | 04:17 |
| nixonix | (not all of pro ivermectin are antivaxers, some just believe in big pile of trash studies) | 04:17 |
| de-facto | its never too late | 04:18 |
| LjL | i haven't really seen anything completely opposed to ivermectin | 04:18 |
| LjL | it just appears to be popular with people with strange ideas, but... is it actually useless? | 04:18 |
| nixonix | those few good studies on it didnt find any benefit | 04:19 |
| de-facto | well Indonesia got too many fatalities | 04:19 |
| nixonix | a new one: | 04:19 |
| de-facto | if it would be supposed to help with taht | 04:19 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/jul/16/huge-study-supporting-ivermectin-as-covid-treatment-withdrawn-over-ethical-concerns | 04:19 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.theguardian.com: Huge study supporting ivermectin as Covid treatment withdrawn over ethical concerns | Medical research | The Guardian | 04:19 |
| LjL | not quite COVID related, but: https://www.vice.com/en/article/z3xw3x/new-research-vindicates-1972-mit-prediction-that-society-will-collapse-soon | 04:20 |
| nixonix | https://twitter.com/BogochIsaac/status/1409647567168675845 | 04:20 |
| nixonix | https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1412635846218448896 | 04:22 |
| himesama | wasn't the club of rome stuff based on population growth? or was that a misrepresentation? | 04:23 |
| himesama | a bunch of anti-that were going around saying well population will level off so np kthxbye | 04:23 |
| nixonix | was it the original idea, im not sure, but it got that kickstart from that report by jay forrester | 04:25 |
| nixonix | that he made in couple of weeks or so | 04:25 |
| himesama | invented magnetic core memory guy/ | 04:26 |
| nixonix | .title https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jiec.13084 | 04:26 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From onlinelibrary.wiley.com: Update to limits to growth: Comparing the World3 model with empirical data - Herrington - 2021 - Journal of Industrial Ecology - Wiley Online Library | 04:26 |
| LjL | de-facto, wow, that sure looks like blatant fraud | 04:26 |
| nixonix | they compared a few models and saw which one was closest to what had happened then | 04:26 |
| himesama | 19 years until collapse | 04:26 |
| LjL | himesama, i think you can safely say 20 with rounding errors :P | 04:27 |
| nixonix | resources limiting factor, was it mostly about food | 04:27 |
| himesama | i think i maybe read that ltg book at one point but forgot it | 04:27 |
| nixonix | download that link. if it isnt available, it was in sci-hub or somewhere | 04:28 |
| LjL | maybe preppers will be happy | 04:29 |
| LjL | but i can barely tie my shoelaces | 04:29 |
| nixonix | i have the solution for that, a min... | 04:29 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.fieggen.com/shoelace/ianknot.htm | 04:29 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.fieggen.com: Ian's Shoelace Site – Ian Knot (Ian's Fast Shoelace Knot) | 04:29 |
| LjL | oh so do i, i've bought velcro shoes for decades | 04:29 |
| himesama | i tend to think that western civ or at least the usa is collapsing on its own for political reasons never mind hard data variables | 04:31 |
| LjL | maybe i should just make sure i keep being allowed to go to switzerland | 04:32 |
| himesama | at least it is not on the coast | 04:32 |
| LjL | well milan isn't on the coast either | 04:32 |
| de-facto | https://de1lib.org/s/limits%20to%20growth https://sci-hub.se/10.1111/jiec.13084 | 04:36 |
| nixonix | yeah i agree with that balloux's tweets above (i read the scrollback). thats why i disagreed with australias expensive actions, when going to low cases instead of absolute zero goal would have been much cheaper and easier to attain | 04:38 |
| nixonix | a bit like finland used to do (we did then stupid mistakes with border control, and this june with bars etc too) | 04:38 |
| nixonix | but, if those telomere and brain damage threats are real, then i take it all back. but australia couldnt know it like last summer | 04:39 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Puerto Rico: +137 cases (now 123912) since 23 hours ago | 04:39 |
| de-facto | i wonder why all countries do the same mistakes at the same time, is it like a pandemic of bad ideas spreading through the politicians or such? | 04:39 |
| de-facto | they call each others and compete about who will open first? | 04:40 |
| nixonix | so to reverse this policy of letting it rip, we would need a warning example. where could we get it, when brits have lots of immunity both from infections and vaccines? | 04:41 |
| nixonix | and those hospitalizations of middle age and older come after long delay, might be couple of months | 04:42 |
| nixonix | theres nobody with this level of immunity, where the cases are now increasing rapidly. so i suppose this time its our turn to be a warning example... | 04:42 |
| nixonix | there were several bold eastern european countries last time, celebrating how they handled it better than the wester europe. and look what happened to all of them | 04:43 |
| de-facto | i am pretty sure the mistakes are being made right now, amplified exponentially, so later we will wish we contained this earlier | 04:44 |
| himesama | last i heard taiwan had 6 deaths and needed no npi. what was the history after that? | 04:44 |
| himesama | if we (rest of world) could we have eradicated it or contained it within china with only occasional contact tracing and so on? | 04:45 |
| nixonix | they follow guidance, and check that other people do that too. and i think also less suspectable for sars2 than europeans | 04:45 |
| himesama | i misse the telomera and brain damage bt post viral was known already ---- 19:39 <nixonix> but, if those telomere and brain damage threats are real, then i take it all back. but australia couldnt know it like last summer | 04:45 |
| de-facto | they are less stupid than europeans it seems | 04:46 |
| nixonix | maybe taiwan also dont have the indian variant | 04:47 |
| nixonix | i wonder if south korea has, they are increasing now | 04:47 |
| nixonix | flatter than europe tho | 04:47 |
| de-facto | ALpha, Delta and Gamma in TW | 04:48 |
| nixonix | if the cases are low enough, even with all indian variant, they can still contain it | 04:49 |
| de-facto | makes sense, since they import what fuels the pandemic worldwide | 04:49 |
| himesama | ? | 04:50 |
| nixonix | the forgot they shouldnt let it go community spreading. and this was already with the old variants, when now it should be instant panic if its community spreading one bit | 04:50 |
| de-facto | of course, its always possible to contain it, its never too late, its only a question of determination and level of strictness | 04:50 |
| de-facto | R<1 means its contained, time will make it extinct | 04:52 |
| nixonix | australia is even steeper than europe. it may be all indian variant tho, but cases still very low | 04:52 |
| de-facto | but if measures are lifted as soon as first signs of R<1 are on the horizon, well then it will happily grow again of course | 04:52 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: UK scientist with links to Wuhan lab 'recuses himself' from inquiry into Covid origins → https://is.gd/B8QIXU | 04:53 |
| de-facto | instead we would need to maintain strictest containment approved to achieve R<1 with current variant even beyond incidence zero for a few weeks to ensure it really died off with all incognito infection chains | 04:53 |
| de-facto | but yeah this wont happen | 04:54 |
| de-facto | hence it will continue | 04:54 |
| nixonix | it was funny, when daszak was the main western suspect the whole time, that he was in that WHO team... | 04:54 |
| de-facto | but its not because it would be impossible to contain it, its because we are not determined enough to do it | 04:55 |
| nixonix | and also behind that original letter | 04:55 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.healthline.com/health-news/leaky-vaccines-can-produce-stronger-versions-of-viruses-072715 | 04:59 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.healthline.com: ‘Leaky’ Vaccines Can Produce Stronger Versions of Viruses | 04:59 |
| de-facto | why did we not contain it with NPIs worldwide and vaccinated fast enough when variants were still not so aggressive? | 05:00 |
| de-facto | now it seems herd immunity is not achievable anymore | 05:00 |
| de-facto | worst, we even actively are breeding on more aggressive strains | 05:01 |
| nixonix | Anxiety and fear-related disorders were a prevalent condition in our sample; they were also the second highest risk factor for death among the underlying conditions considered in our study. The reasons for this finding are likely multifactorial and may include a reduced ability to prevent infection among patients with anxiety disorders, | 05:03 |
| nixonix | the immunomodulatory and/or cardiovascular effects of medications used to treat these disorders, or severe COVID-19 illness exacerbating anxiety disorders (19,20). | 05:03 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.cdc.gov/pcd/issues/2021/21_0123.htm | 05:03 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.cdc.gov: Underlying Medical Conditions and Severe Illness Among 540,667 Adults Hospitalized With COVID-19, March 2020âMarch 2021 | 05:04 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Thailand: +10082 cases (now 391989), +141 deaths (now 3240) since 23 hours ago — Netherlands: +11246 cases (now 1.8 million) since 23 hours ago — France: +19 deaths (now 111548) since 23 hours ago — Canada: +418 cases (now 1.4 million) since 23 hours ago | 05:04 |
| nixonix | Hypertension and disorders of lipid metabolism were the most frequent, whereas obesity, diabetes with complication, and anxiety disorders were the strongest risk factors for severe COVID-19 illness | 05:06 |
| nixonix | strange that last one | 05:06 |
| de-facto | anxiety disorder as co-factor to another morbidity or alone? | 05:09 |
| de-facto | maybe they knew they were in risk group due to another morbidity, hence were anxious to get sick? | 05:10 |
| nixonix | its achievable, but its not permanent and it doesnt eliminate the virus from circulation. but it needs some of us to get the actual infection without protection from vaccine. just let it be antivaxes, who get it by their own chose, not kids | 05:10 |
| nixonix | especially when theres risk of permanent damage to brain, telomeres etc | 05:10 |
| nixonix | we vaccinated will get the infection too, probably several times during years, but hopefully with less damage | 05:11 |
| nixonix | probably with less | 05:11 |
| de-facto | with herd immunity i mean that we could contain it without additional NPIs, that is not possible anymore imho | 05:11 |
| nixonix | it was never possible, like from the whole world | 05:11 |
| de-facto | it was possible at the start, where mostly one (less virulent) variant was circulating that did not spread into multiple distinct evasive and much more aggressive mutants | 05:12 |
| nixonix | after it got loose | 05:12 |
| nixonix | maybe if they would have succeeded it with just hundreds or a few thousand infections like with sars1. but not after that | 05:12 |
| de-facto | i disagree, i think it would have been possible to achieve herd immunity by vaccines, but only at the very start | 05:12 |
| de-facto | but the campaign required for that obviously went way over the organizing capabilities of humanity, it would have required a globally synchronized response, containment and vaccination | 05:14 |
| nixonix | just double vax the damn kids. then im cool whatever happens | 05:14 |
| de-facto | none of any of what we discuss here will even be tried, humanity is just to capable of such things, let alone most of them would even understand it | 05:15 |
| nixonix | if they dont do that, i will collect material about those responsible in this country, and see that they will get what they deserve, or eventually what justice system thinks they deserve (which is prob nothing, but it must be done anyway) | 05:15 |
| de-facto | *humanity is just not capable of such things | 05:15 |
| himesama | forced vax in the us could start a violent insurrection | 05:18 |
| de-facto | tbh i am against forced vaccinations, but i am for forced containment | 05:19 |
| de-facto | and i am for forcing management to never do any compromise with containment | 05:20 |
| nixonix | im for voluntary incentives | 05:21 |
| de-facto | and i also would be for forcing vaccine producers to scale on a level that really makes a difference worldwide | 05:21 |
| nixonix | like what macron is doing | 05:21 |
| de-facto | so far they dont | 05:21 |
| himesama | although the "you cannot enter here unless you are vaccinated" type of forcing might not | 05:21 |
| nixonix | yeah, sounds great to me | 05:21 |
| himesama | but you always have to remember there are human beings who cannot get vaccinated for medical reasons and to forget about them is criminal | 05:22 |
| himesama | and they would be forgotten about | 05:22 |
| himesama | so, caution there | 05:22 |
| nixonix | those are exempted ofc, with medical reasons, in western countries | 05:22 |
| nixonix | who knows, maybe even in china | 05:23 |
| himesama | idk if all rules everywhere does | 05:23 |
| IndoAnon | himesama: macron flipflop much | 05:23 |
| nixonix | macron is cool after that. i wanna party with him | 05:23 |
| himesama | idk about macron. until recently i thought it was a diacritical mark, not a national leader | 05:23 |
| IndoAnon | Government omitted too much of information from public | 05:24 |
| nixonix | he's just one of those ENA guys | 05:24 |
| himesama | ena? | 05:24 |
| nixonix | ecole national administration something | 05:25 |
| IndoAnon | I thought we're in era where transparency in fundamental in governance. But, it seems not the case | 05:25 |
| himesama | oh his education? | 05:25 |
| IndoAnon | *is | 05:25 |
| de-facto | i know a french girl who said she decided to get the vaccination because of what macron did | 05:25 |
| nixonix | which they are closing down, btw. but supposedly something similar with another name will replace it | 05:25 |
| nixonix | what was that french dudes nick, on pol forums. indo should know him | 05:26 |
| de-facto | vaccine appointments were saturated in hours, 1.6M or such | 05:26 |
| IndoAnon | nixonix: Uhh, whom? You mean the guy involved in email scandal amidst 2018 election? | 05:27 |
| nixonix | no, just the guy weve discussed about french politics, macron and stuff. forgot his nick | 05:28 |
| de-facto | before that france was a bit behind EU, now probably will pull ahead? | 05:28 |
| nixonix | glider | 05:29 |
| indoanon[m] | damn, i forgot | 05:29 |
| nixonix | maybe anxiety affects immune system somehow | 05:33 |
| nixonix | like a constant stress, that should do that too | 05:33 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.euronews.com/2021/07/14/us-health-coronavirus-greece-vaccines-protests | 05:34 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.euronews.com: In Athens, thousands rally against COVID-19 vaccinations | Euronews | 05:34 |
| nixonix | .title https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/1164567/plan-to-vaccinate-teens-triggers-large-protests-in-greece/ | 05:36 |
| Brainstorm | nixonix: From www.ekathimerini.com: Plan to vaccinate teens triggers large protests in Greece | eKathimerini.com | 05:36 |
| nixonix | but thats all in europe? small protests in france and greece. maybe because all are reopening, so its not a good sign | 05:37 |
| Brainstorm | New from This Week In Virology: TWiV 780: COVID-19 clinical update #71 with Dr. Daniel Griffin: In COVID-19 clinical update #71, Daniel Griffin reviews updated school and child care guidance from CDC, transmission in schools, accuracy of lateral flow assays, update to J&J/Janssen vaccine EUA to include GBS, interim immunogenicity of Ad.26.CoV2.s, [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/GixwOD | 06:15 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Destination of the week: Eiffel Tower reopens; COVID passes required as of next week → https://is.gd/U8agDZ | 06:25 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Belgium: +1344 cases (now 1.1 million), +1 deaths (now 25209) since a day ago | 06:31 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for England, United Kingdom: +46763 cases (now 4.6 million), +42 deaths (now 113104) since 23 hours ago — Florida, United States: +45449 cases (now 2.5 million), +231 deaths (now 38388) since 6 days ago — Baleares, Spain: +1873 cases (now 69076) since 23 hours ago — Noord-Brabant, Netherlands: +1683 cases (now 284658) since 23 hours ago | 07:33 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Tokyo Olympics: Covid 19 case found at athletes’ village, raising infection fears → https://is.gd/iTidmw | 07:37 |
| himesama | THE WORLD IS A SPOILED BRAT | 07:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: First case of Covid-19 reported at Tokyo Olympic village → https://is.gd/XAgP0y | 08:17 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: First COVID-19 case confirmed at Tokyo Olympics athletes’ village, raising alarms - National → https://is.gd/jYFHSo | 08:27 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Pakistan: +2949 cases (now 986668), +40 deaths (now 22760) since a day ago — India: +38079 cases (now 31.1 million), +554 deaths (now 412915) since 23 hours ago — Switzerland: +619 cases (now 707976) since a day ago | 08:35 |
| whytek | himesama, now there's a generalisation for you. | 08:40 |
| whytek | :) | 08:40 |
| whytek | (no clue what you refer to) | 08:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/Coronavirus: Daily Discussion Thread | July 17, 2021: Please refer to our Wiki for more information on COVID-19 and our sub. You can find answers to frequently asked questions in our FAQ , where there is valuable information such as our: → https://is.gd/UDneoT | 09:08 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Dominica: +7 cases (now 206) since 4 days ago | 10:02 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: China Zhifei’s COVID shot largely retains effect against Delta variant-lab study → https://is.gd/TpPkuH | 10:29 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: First case of COVID-19 found in Tokyo Olympic Village → https://is.gd/GczfX0 | 10:39 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Sindh, Pakistan: +1631 cases (now 354103), +25 deaths (now 5697) since a day ago — Manipur, India: +1128 cases (now 82688), +10 deaths (now 1350) since 23 hours ago — Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan: +333 cases (now 140293), +3 deaths (now 4380) since 2 days ago — Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan: +179 cases (now 21811), +1 deaths (now 598) since a day ago | 10:40 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Japan: +3213 cases (now 834618), +13 deaths (now 15027) since 8 hours ago | 11:11 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): Comparing November and June Waves: I have been keeping track of the current wave and comparing it to the one we had that caused the November lockdown. For simplicity I am just going to refer to them as the November and June waves it may not be the the most accurate descriptor but its the way I think of them. This is not a [... want %more?] → https://is.gd/IZ7awm | 11:51 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Covid: Fully jabbed arrivals from France must still quarantine → https://is.gd/9aJ9rT | 12:01 |
| Brainstorm | New from Politico: Travelers between UK and France face new restrictions: The restriction comes amid U.K. fears that the Beta variant of the coronavirus could spread from France → https://is.gd/eHhWxK | 12:11 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Austria: +411 cases (now 653412) since a day ago | 12:38 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Thailand bans gatherings as COVID cases, deaths hit new record → https://is.gd/OQZN7D | 13:22 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Finland: +384 cases (now 99976) since 23 hours ago — Nepal: +1310 cases (now 665886), +21 deaths (now 9527) since a day ago | 13:40 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express (Health): Life-style: Pandemic travel: Ensure a safer hotel stay with these tips → https://is.gd/4c0de5 | 14:13 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: India: France allows visitors with Indian-made AstraZeneca vaccine → https://is.gd/W0OR6v | 14:23 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: WHO chief calls for ‘audits’ of Wuhan labs after first mission controversy → https://is.gd/4KgUAJ | 15:04 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Fiji: +1180 cases (now 16471), +5 deaths (now 85) since a day ago — Bangladesh: +3163 cases (now 1.1 million) since 21 hours ago | 15:07 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: Desperate for Covid vaccines amid surge, Iranians flock to Armenia → https://is.gd/a1YDx7 | 15:24 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Azerbaijan: +213 cases (now 338183), +1 deaths (now 4991) since 22 hours ago — Germany: +1451 cases (now 3.8 million) since 23 hours ago | 15:32 |
| joerg | LjL: you might be interested to add to your list: https://assets.dasimpfbuch.de/1w2zriafco7p/6dPdNTtFJ4tGdcvgZxETJS/4e382ba0270b3cdf09a9b8130e1a2227/BMG_Impfbuch-f__r-alle_EN_210701_bf.pdf from https://www.dasimpfbuch.de/ | 16:30 |
| joerg | sorry if it already been mentioned in here | 16:31 |
| joerg | it's a broader view at vaccination history, current, and future, effects on society and special focus on covid, in a very non-scientific popular language | 16:33 |
| joerg | no BS | 16:34 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Senegal: +1366 cases (now 50374), +5 deaths (now 1214) since a day ago — Guernsey: +11 cases (now 882) since 22 hours ago | 16:34 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR: A Week Before The Opening Ceremony, Coronavirus Turns Up At Tokyo's Olympic Village: The latest infection highlights the challenge for Olympic organizers to keep the virus at bay as tens of thousands of athletes and other participants convene during an ongoing pandemic. → https://is.gd/e4Lnmk | 16:36 |
| joerg | also available in Arab, Russian, Turkish and of course de | 16:37 |
| joerg | nothing new for probably any member in this channel in it, but might come in handy when discussing with other people | 16:38 |
| de-facto | oh nice they had that yellow book from RKI at pharmacies for free here | 16:42 |
| joerg | yep, found it that way :-) | 16:44 |
| joerg | it's surprisingly unbiased | 16:46 |
| de-facto | yep its really well done | 16:47 |
| joerg | not _so_ surprising, given you can't convince anybody skeptical regarding vaccination by telling them "you're wrong!" | 16:48 |
| joerg | yep, good job done. That's why I felt I link it here | 16:49 |
| joerg | de-facto: there's a nice interview with a bit of background https://www.apotheken-umschau.de/gesund-bleiben/vorsorge/kostenloses-impfbuch-blick-ueber-den-tellerrand-786741.html | 16:53 |
| de-facto | interesting | 16:55 |
| de-facto | btw i read that now they are doing "low threshold" vaccination campaigns in Germany, e.g. drive in or such and the demand is saturating the supply | 16:56 |
| de-facto | without all the hassle of necessities like booking an appointment etc | 16:56 |
| specing | They've been doing that here for a month now | 16:57 |
| specing | unregistered vaccinations | 16:57 |
| de-facto | very good idea imho, vaccinations "to go" where people just can get it while shopping or such | 16:57 |
| de-facto | yes it may reach those there just did not care to actively organize their vaccinations yet, and they just have a few minutes free do go for it | 16:58 |
| de-facto | i know quite some that were unable to book an appointment and then were happy to just be able to go there and get their shots | 16:59 |
| de-facto | often they offer Janssen (1 shot) here, but also Moderna (2 shot) | 16:59 |
| specing | de-facto: yeah, and those who are outside prio groups | 17:01 |
| de-facto | http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom;Spain;Netherlands;Belgium;Portugal;Greece;Denmark;Ireland&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&miscType=Reff&leftTrim=400 | 17:15 |
| de-facto | Delta wave in Europe | 17:16 |
| de-facto | http://offloop.net/covid19/?default=EU;US;United%20Kingdom;Spain;Netherlands;Belgium;Portugal;Greece;Denmark;Ireland&byPopulation=yes&cumulative=no&smooth=yes&miscType=Reff&leftTrim=400 | 17:16 |
| de-facto | included EU and US for comparison | 17:16 |
| de-facto | this has to be stopped from progressing like that | 17:20 |
| de-facto | https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/isle-of-man/ | 17:33 |
| de-facto | https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark | 17:33 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Italy: +3118 cases (now 4.3 million), +13 deaths (now 127864) since 23 hours ago — Isle of Man: +139 cases (now 2074) since 22 hours ago | 17:36 |
| Brainstorm | New from The Indian Express: World: France greenlights Covishield; here’s full list of EU nations that recognise India-made vaccine → https://is.gd/CkGsBs | 17:37 |
| joerg | de-facto: in Nuernberg for example you can get any covid shot you want if you are living in Germany and older than 11 years, just drop by. There are also several "flying" vaccination facilities https://www.msgp.pl/VV42pFt | 17:49 |
| joerg | de-facto: you know you could use negative "left trim" values? :-D | 17:53 |
| de-facto | nice, yeah we need more of those | 17:59 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for United Kingdom: +81405 cases (now 5.4 million) since 23 hours ago | 18:01 |
| LjL | yikes | 18:02 |
| LjL | 54674 is the official number today in the UK | 18:06 |
| LjL | dunno what Brainstorm's doing, sometimes Covidly does weird things | 18:06 |
| genera | 50000 was yesterday, no? | 18:07 |
| Brainstorm | genera: At 2021-07-17 00:36:51 UTC, LjL told you: bit of a hack but try %cases <country> now and it should include the latest update | 18:07 |
| genera | %cases wales | 18:07 |
| Brainstorm | genera: In Wales, United Kingdom, there have been 229507 confirmed cases (7.3% of the population) and 5583 deaths (2.4% of cases) as of 10 hours ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Wales for time series data. | 18:07 |
| genera | %cases england | 18:08 |
| Brainstorm | genera: In England, United Kingdom, there have been 4.6 million confirmed cases (8.3% of the population) and 113104 deaths (2.4% of cases) as of 10 hours ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=England for time series data. | 18:08 |
| genera | %cases UK | 18:08 |
| Brainstorm | genera: In United Kingdom, there have been 5.4 million confirmed cases (8.1% of the population) and 128778 deaths (2.4% of cases) as of 7 minutes ago. 230.4 million tests were performed (2.3% positive). United Kingdom: +81405 cases (now 5.4 million) since 23 hours ago. See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 18:08 |
| LjL | genera, it only works if an update for the given location was issued since the bot was last restarted (which in this case is less than a day ago, when i added this) | 18:11 |
| LjL | yesterday was around 52k iirc | 18:11 |
| genera | cool | 18:11 |
| genera | yah 5xxxx is what i meant | 18:12 |
| genera | *weak memory* | 18:12 |
| de-facto | UK COVID cases since 2021-06-01: cases(t) = 4995.82 1.30^(t/5.2) = 4995.82 1.22^(t/4) hence doubling each T2 = 5.2 Ln(2) / Ln(1.3) ~ 4 Ln(2) / Ln(1.22) ~ 13.7 ~ 14 days | 18:25 |
| joerg | 1.22? seems low | 18:27 |
| de-facto | for ts = 4d | 18:27 |
| de-facto | meaning UK is going to pass 100k daily cases at 2021-07-30 | 18:27 |
| joerg | yeah, we are at >1.3 now | 18:27 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Canada took a risk delaying second COVID-19 vaccine doses. Now, its vaccination campaign is one of the best in the world → https://is.gd/ySdOb1 | 18:28 |
| joerg | well, that's average for last err 6? weeks | 18:28 |
| de-facto | joerg, yeah lots of tourists from holidays returning and importing newest variants right now in Germany | 18:28 |
| de-facto | i guess we will see R rising even further | 18:29 |
| joerg | since 2021-06-01 | 18:29 |
| joerg | we will | 18:29 |
| joerg | https://i.imgur.com/APK4HzW.png doesn't look like R_t considers stopping its rise | 18:31 |
| yuta | https://www.embopress.org/doi/full/10.15252/emmm.202114122 | 18:32 |
| yuta | de-facto, | 18:32 |
| joerg | and now with flood, nobody cares about corona neither distancing or wearing masks or whatever | 18:33 |
| joerg | lots of travel | 18:33 |
| de-facto | yuta, nice thanks for that link looks quite interesting | 18:35 |
| yuta | de-facto, ;) | 18:36 |
| de-facto | .title https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8061081/ | 18:41 |
| Brainstorm | de-facto: From www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov: Discovery of naturally occurring inhibitors against SARS-CoV-2 3CLpro from Ginkgo biloba leaves via large-scale screening | 18:41 |
| de-facto | yuta, ^^ a preprint, no treatment or cure or anything like that, but Ginkgo seems to contain some molecules that inhibit SARS-CoV-2 replication in vitro (cell cultures) | 18:42 |
| yuta | de-facto, I think it should also be tested on human subjects. | 18:46 |
| yuta | We should try everything. | 18:47 |
| de-facto | yes would be quite interesting if it would have a benefit or not | 18:47 |
| de-facto | especially since its something used for centuries already, so known safety profile | 18:47 |
| de-facto | yuta, its usage is popular in Japan i assume? | 18:48 |
| de-facto | how is the most common consumption of it? | 18:49 |
| yuta | I didn't know lol | 18:50 |
| yuta | イチョウ葉エキス | 18:50 |
| yuta | Ginkgo biloba extract | 18:50 |
| joerg | the problem with all those in-vitro tested substances is that most of them would need a serum concentration in human body that would instantly kill you instead of curing or protecting you | 18:52 |
| yuta | Although presented on the internet, the medicinal properties of gingko leaves are not well known. | 18:53 |
| yuta | that is in japan. | 18:53 |
| joerg | or there's no way to get the substance to where it's supposed to take action at all | 18:53 |
| yuta | joerg, lol | 18:54 |
| de-facto | joerg, yes that is one of the problems, but maybe they could use the molecules as templates to design new drugs or such | 18:55 |
| Brainstorm | New from Reddit (test): CoronaVirus_2019_nCoV: TX: Local leaders ask state for resources to test Delta variant → https://is.gd/WMdkK1 | 18:59 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Morocco: +2853 cases (now 555488), +7 deaths (now 9434) since 23 hours ago | 19:03 |
| pas23 | %cases germany | 20:01 |
| Brainstorm | pas23: In Germany, there have been 3.8 million confirmed cases (4.5% of the population) and 91882 deaths (2.4% of cases) as of an hour ago. 66.1 million tests were performed (5.7% positive). Fatality can be broadly expected to lie between 1.9% (assuming prevalence as in tests) and less than 2.5% (considering only deaths and recoveries). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Germany for time series data. | 20:01 |
| pas23 | %cases UK | 20:04 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Mozambique: +2025 cases (now 98152), +24 deaths (now 1099) since a day ago — India: +38820 cases (now 31.1 million), +539 deaths (now 413087) since 21 hours ago | 20:04 |
| Brainstorm | pas23: In United Kingdom, there have been 5.4 million confirmed cases (8.1% of the population) and 128778 deaths (2.4% of cases) as of 2 hours ago. 230.4 million tests were performed (2.3% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=United%20Kingdom for time series data. | 20:04 |
| Brainstorm | New from NPR: Vaccinated U.K. Health Secretary Tests Positive For COVID-19: Sajid Javid tested positive two days before the United Kingdom is set to reopen following months of lockdowns. Cases, driven by the delta variant, are up sharply in the U.K. → https://is.gd/iEwLTP | 20:20 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Canada's vaccination rate overtakes US → https://is.gd/ygk2xJ | 20:41 |
| pas23 | %cases NL | 20:43 |
| Brainstorm | pas23: In Netherlands, there have been 1.8 million confirmed cases (10.3% of the population) and 17918 deaths (1.0% of cases) as of 13 hours ago. 15.0 million tests were performed (11.9% positive). See https://offloop.net/covid19/?default=Netherlands for time series data. | 20:43 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: More than 1,000 Israelis test positive for COVID → https://is.gd/907dC2 | 20:51 |
| tempate | Hello there. I took my vaccine shot (janssen) two days ago. A friend got his test results today and he's positive. Does the vaccine interfere with test results? | 21:02 |
| de-facto | no you can take a proper test like PCR and its result should be accurate independent of the vaccination. but the test depends on the time of a potential infection progressing | 21:05 |
| de-facto | btw the vaccination takes some time to develop its protection, so there is no protection to be expected in such short time spans | 21:06 |
| de-facto | in short, behave as if you were not vaccinated, if you assume you could be infected isolate and get a PCR test | 21:07 |
| de-facto | in detail: the Janssen vaccine contains replication deficient Adenovirus vectors that transport a DNA plasmid encoding the SARS-CoV-2 spike-glycoprotein that is translated into mRNA and the s-protein that is presented on the cells surfaces to provoke the immune reaction | 21:15 |
| de-facto | if a test would only test for presence of either s-glycoprotein or its RNA sequence it could be a false positive, but current tests should take that into account and use different parts of the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen that are not contained in that vaccine, for example the N-protein | 21:17 |
| de-facto | yet mention the recent vaccination to those that offer that test, just so that they know | 21:18 |
| de-facto | another detail: the vaccines use codon-optimized sequences to express the recipe for the s-protein, hence the RNA sequence they expose to cells is different to that of SARS-CoV-2 itself, even if the resulting s-protein is almost the same as the very first Wuhan version (plus two proline substitutions to stabilize it in the prefusion configuration) | 21:20 |
| genera | maybe the induced spikeproteins dont show up in the nose, where the antigen test probe is taken | 21:24 |
| de-facto | my rapid antigen test would look for N-protein afaik | 21:29 |
| de-facto | (the cheap one i bought in supermarket here in Germany) | 21:29 |
| de-facto | but if i would have the suspicion i could have gotten infected acutely i would go for a proper much more sensitive and reliable PCR test | 21:29 |
| de-facto | the problem is tempate would not know if symptoms are from vaccination or potential infection or both, hence really should get that test done | 21:30 |
| de-facto | genera, the spike proteins from vaccination eventually may show up in the blood (at least that was the case for Moderna mRNA vaccine for first injection), hence maybe almost everywhere | 21:32 |
| genera | ok | 21:32 |
| de-facto | btw what antigen does your rapid test bind to? | 21:34 |
| de-facto | you said you bought one for 49 cent? | 21:34 |
| genera | idk | 21:46 |
| genera | lepu medical nasochek | 21:48 |
| de-facto | yeah that one is N-protein | 22:02 |
| * Arsanerit filled a dPLF form | 22:20 | |
| Arsanerit | I'm going to risk a vacation; I'm fully vaccinated and plan to be only outdoors during the vacation. | 22:21 |
| specing | go for it | 22:22 |
| Arsanerit | I'll be bike touring | 22:24 |
| specing | I doubt you'd be risking anything | 22:25 |
| specing | you are in your prime and vaccinated | 22:25 |
| specing | the worst you can catch is a sore butt | 22:25 |
| darsie | Arsanerit: Are you going to sleep on a park bench? ;) | 22:26 |
| darsie | How likely is after full Pfizer/Moderna immunization to contract and pass on the delta variant? | 22:29 |
| Arsanerit | darsie: no, in my ten mostly | 22:30 |
| darsie | or are there already subtypes of vaccines for e.g. delta? | 22:30 |
| Arsanerit | *tent | 22:30 |
| darsie | ic | 22:30 |
| darsie | I'll let that count as outside ;). | 22:30 |
| darsie | outdoors* | 22:31 |
| de-facto | darsie, there are studies indicating efficacy of ~88% of BNT162b2 against Delta symptomatic infection, hence attack rate is lowered to (100%-88%) = 0.12 ~ 1/8.3 | 22:35 |
| darsie | ok. How about passing it on, then? | 22:36 |
| darsie | Like, importing it across a border and spreading it. | 22:37 |
| de-facto | thats a very good question, i assume symptomatic infections can pass it on, but in addition there might also be asyptomatic infections | 22:37 |
| de-facto | vaccinations lower the likelihood to transmit it by 1) lowering infection risk 2) lowering viral shedding 3) lowering duration of viral shedding | 22:38 |
| de-facto | by how much? maybe secondary attack rate comparisons could tell | 22:38 |
| de-facto | e.g. compare the infection risk from a carrier inside a household and compare vaccine breakthrough with immune-naive with same variant under similar conditions | 22:39 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Israel: +837 cases (now 850941), +2 deaths (now 6446) since a day ago | 22:41 |
| de-facto | vaccinations lower the risk of severe progressions by orders of magnitude, but we cant assume they protect from transmission to the same degree | 22:42 |
| de-facto | thats why i think also vaccinated should be tested and also quarantined if returning from high incidence areas or areas with potentially mutants we dont have | 22:43 |
| Brainstorm | Updates for Curacao: +94 cases (now 12699) since 21 hours ago | 23:05 |
| -Bridgestorm- 🌎 Temblor! Sismo! Earthquake! 6.2 Mw tremor, registered by 4 agencies, with 47 reports, 27 early, occurred 11 minutes ago (20:56:11 UTC), during daytime, South Of Panama (6.96, -82.73) ± 6 km likely felt 530 km away — Webcams: https://www.windy.com/webcams/1579471820 https://www.windy.com/webcams/1417973803 https://www.windy.com/webcams/1612139442 (www.seismicportal.eu) | 23:07 | |
| Brainstorm | New from CDC (old): Cases in the U.S.: CDC COVID Data Tracker - Cases and Deaths by State → https://is.gd/yJtqEF | 23:14 |
| -Bridgestorm- ⭕ Sismo! Earthquake! 6.1 Mww tremor, registered by US,swifteqinfo, occurred 25 minutes ago (20:56:11 UTC), during daytime, South Of Panama (6.75, -82.62) ± 12 km, ↓7 km likely felt 300 km away (in David, Santiago…) by 171900 people → https://twitter.com/swifteqinfo/status/1416508229870264320 (Twitter) | 23:21 | |
| LjL | <Brainstorm> New from r/Coronavirus: Coronavirus: Majority of Covid misinformation came from 12 people, report find → https://is.gd/6sL3pX | 23:45 |
| LjL | not sure what to think | 23:45 |
| Brainstorm | New from r/WorldNews: worldnews: Canada surpasses US in percentage of fully vaccinated against Covid-19 → https://is.gd/hesUPW | 23:54 |
| de-facto | Cui bono? maybe just useful idiots of those cleavage-strategies polarizing society and sabotaging coherent containment and countermeasures that also were responsible for all those bots flooding the early times of the pandemic? | 23:57 |
| LjL | there's also a whole lot of politics about who should decide what is on social media | 23:59 |
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